Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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20-Jan-19 World View -- Suspension of daily World View articles - John J. Xenakis - 01-19-2019 *** 20-Jan-19 World View -- Suspension of daily World View articles This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** South Korea vs Japan military 'radar lock' feud continues to escalate **** Japanese patrol plane launches anti-missile flares during a fleet review in 2015 (AFP) According to Japan, on December 20 a South Korean warship locked its fire-control radar onto a Japanese patrol plane, as if preparing to shoot it down. Japan made a formal protest to South Korea, claiming that it was a "hostile act." South Korea says that it was a maritime search and rescue operation, with naval forces and supporting coast guard vessels, and that any radar that was used was only ship-to-ship between Korean vessels. Japan rejected this explanation. South Korea then demanded that Tokyo offer a "smoking gun" -- its analysis of radar frequency data to verify whether the destroyer sent the warplane any signals from its tracking radar. Tokyo rejected the call, saying it won't offer sensitive information on its "operational capabilities." Then, on December 28, Japan released a 13-minute video of the interior of the patrol plane at the time of the incident, where a crew member remarked on the plane’s systems picking up an “extremely strong” reading. South Korea then became more aggressive, urging Japan to apologize for the patrol plane's low-altitude flight, which was "threatening" to the South Korean warship, and criticized Tokyo's "unilateral, misguided" claims. South Korea then released its own video, saying that it refutes Tokyo's arguments. Now, on Saturday, Japan indicated that on Sunday it might release an audio recording of its crew at the time of the incident. South Korea is accusing Japan of planning to use it to "distort the facts" and release "incorrect" information. Memories of World War II are still very raw between the two countries, and now that the WW II survivors are gone, younger generations are seeking revenge. Japan colonized Korea from 1905 to 1945, and used Koreans as "comfort women" during the war. In 2015, Japan and Korea concluded a bilateral agreement which was intended at the time as the “final and irreversible” resolution of the comfort women issue. However, South Korea is now demanding that issue be reopened. Another issue is that, last year, because of the "charm offensive" between North and South Korea, South Korea's military canceled the purchase of a number of weapons whose purpose was to defend against a North Korean invasion of Seoul. The Japanese view this as an opportunity to redirect those funds towards weapons systems that can be used against the Japanese. The "radar lock" issue started out looking like something really trivial, but as time has passed, tensions on both sides have rapidly escalated, and the probability that the controversy or some other misunderstanding could lead to a wider conflict is increasing. Japan Times and Yonhap (Seoul, 1-Jan) and Diplomat (12-Jan) and Defense News (17-May-2018) Related Articles:
**** **** Suspension of daily World View articles **** I'm suspending daily World View articles because most of the work on generational theory has been completed, and because the best use of my time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China. Since 2003, I've posted over 6,000 articles on my web site, all of them well-sourced through multiple sources, and non-ideological. There is no "fake news" in any of them. These articles contain thousands of generational analyses and predictions of over 100 countries. All of these analyses and predictions are true or are trending true. None has turned out to be wrong. My work in the last ten years has been groundbreaking, on the behavior of how a country acts in the decades after a major civil war, a generational crisis civil war. This is a breakthrough on analyzing and predicting the behavior of the population, the generations, and the politicians, and showing how these nations all act pretty much the same as each other, though differently from countries after a major external war (invading or being invaded). Generational Dynamics now provides the tools to government officials, historians, journalists, and geopolitical analysts -- if they want to use them -- to correctly analyze what's happening in the world, what will happen next, and what the likely outcome is of different policy decisions. No other analytical tools, besides Generational Dynamics, have ever provided successful predictions at this level of accuracy and usefulness. **** **** Generational Dynamics development of generational theory **** For most countries, the last generational crisis war was World War II. But that's not true for all countries. Many countries were relatively untouched by WW II, and had crisis wars at other times. Many African nations (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, etc.) had crisis wars in the 1950s-60s related to their individual wars of independence from colonialism. Some non-African countries (Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Bangladesh) did as well. Many Middle Eastern countries had a generational crisis during the World War I time period, and then cycled into a new crisis war in the 1970s-90s (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan). Some countries (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Morocco, Turkey, Russia) haven't had generational crisis wars for a very long time, and studying those has produced significant discoveries about suicide bombers and terrorists. The most recent generational crisis wars were in Central African Republic, Darfur (Sudan) and Sri Lanka. Writing about these nations has provided a wealth of opportunities to make comparisons. For example, both America in the 1960s and Iran in the 2000s were in their respective generational Awakening eras. By doing detailed social and political analyses, one can find similarities (student demonstrations, anti-government protests, a social "generation gap" between survivors of the war and those growing up afterwards) and differences (occasional low-level violence versus major violent government crackdowns, using torture, rapes, beatings and arbitrary jailing). Where differences exist, it's not in kind, but in intensity. During my research in the past 15 years, I've done many tens of thousands of such analyses and comparative analyses, systematically comparing and contrasting social and political behaviors of different countries at different times in history and during similar or different generational eras. Of these, I've written thousands of articles about them, and documented conclusions. Starting in 2010, I began writing an article every day, and I've written thousands of article since them. This has allowed me to thoroughly document generational theory research and how it is applied to hundreds of countries over many centuries, with the result that, in many ways, development of generational theory is now near-completed and empirically proved. However, there's been a problem. Each time I write about a country, I have to say the same things over and over, with only the details changed. So, for example, when I write about Cambodia, I talk about the 1970s Killing Fields genocide, how it's affected Cambodian society since then, through Recovery and Awakening generational eras in a predictable way. So when prime minister Hun Sen commits each horrific new atrocity, the only real difference between one article and the next is the nature of the new atrocity. The core generational analysis of Cambodia remains the same. This has gotten really boring to write over and over and also boring to read, and of course I don't get paid for these articles, and so it's hard to see anymore what the point is of writing boring unpaid articles every day under those circumstances. <QUOTE>"What do people gain from all their labors at which they toil under the sun? Generations come and generations go, but the earth remains forever. The sun rises and the sun sets, and hurries back to where it rises. The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course. All streams flow into the sea, yet the sea is never full. To the place the streams come from, there they return again. All things are wearisome, more than one can say. The eye never has enough of seeing, nor the ear its fill of hearing. What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Is there anything of which one can say, “Look! This is something new”? It was here already, long ago; it was here before our time. No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet to come will not be remembered by those who follow them. -- Ecclesiastes I."<END QUOTE> On the other hand, the book that I wrote on Iran last year was a very interesting project, and is the best book available today for those who wish to understand Iran, the history of Islam, and the nature of the Sunni-Shia split. Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East. I'm now working on a great book on China which is also a very interesting project, and the best use of my time right now is to complete that book, as well as possibly one more. We're headed to a world war with China, possibly very soon, and I've already done a great deal of historical research on China to determine why China's leadership is so paranoid, barbaric and incompetent, how they've completely lost their own Mandate from Heaven, why China's hard-working citizens tolerate these worthless barbarians, and what sequence of events is likely to occur in the next few months. So I'm suspending the daily World View articles, but I'll still write occasional articles every few days, when a news event occurs that I would find interesting to analyze. Hopefully, these less frequent articles will be more interesting to read, as well. I might also post brief items on the Generational Dynamics forum. We'll experiment and see what happens and how this works out. I know that not having me around every day will be a cause for celebration among Russian trolls and Bashar al-Assad acolytes, and I hope you enjoy your champagne. For everybody else, thank you for reading my articles, and I welcome questions and comments through my GenerationalDynamics.com web site or the Generational Dynamics forum. KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Japan, radar lock, Cambodia, Hun Sen, Ecclesiastes, Iran, China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-20-2019 On Russia -- rich culture and some scientific glory (especially on mathematics, agronomy, and linguistics) -- but horrible politics. On Bashir Assad -- there's nothing wrong with him that a well-tied rope and a seven-foot dropwouldn't solve. 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift a - John J. Xenakis - 01-26-2019 *** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Reformulation of daily World View articles **** George Soros last week at World Economic Forum (WEF) As I announced last week, I've suspended the daily World View articles, because the best use of my time right now is to concentrate on finishing up my book on China. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been performing one barbaric act after another, from militarizing the South China Sea to arresting, beating, raping, torturing and executing over a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province, as well as similar violence against Christians and Buddhists. My research on my book has been to determine from China's history how this happened. I've found so far that every CCP policy is connected in some way to the "century of humiliation," and particularly to events surrounding the 1860 Treaty of Tanjin, almost like a serial killer's actions are linked to some traumatic childhood event. In research for my book, my objective is to determine the following:
I'm experimenting with a new format for posting news stories, as well as continuing research on China. Instead of a long, complex article every day, I will be posting short news briefs, sometimes several times a day. This is in the following thread of the Generational Dynamics Forum: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168 Since I'm also doing extensive research on China for my book on China, this thread also contains research analyses on China that are not available in the mainstream media. In past decades, everyone in the world wanted China to succeed in becoming an economic powerhouse and a responsible member of the international community. For this reason, numerous concessions were granted to China and billions of dollars were invested in China to make this happen. Instead of becoming a responsible member of the international community, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has turned into barbaric monsters. My research has already developed partial answers to these questions. Further research will be posted in this forum thread linked above, and of course will appear in the final book. Those who are interested in world events, and particularly in where China is going, are asked to visit this thread. **** **** George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China **** From a geopolitical point of view, the most significant event at last week's World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, was the speech on Thursday given by Hungarian-born left-wing billionaire George Soros, who has a long-standing vitriolic hatred of the political right. Soros launched into a scathing historical criticism of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). One analyst at Davos that I heard said that "Soros said what everyone was afraid to say, but what everyone is thinking." The reason that everyone is afraid to say this is because they all have huge amounts of money invested in China and are afraid to lose it. And the reason that everyone is thinking this is because the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commits one barbaric act after another, from theft of intellectual property to illegal militarizing the South China Sea to "debt trap diplomacy" with dozens of countries, to violence, beatings, rape, and execution of Christians, Buddhists and Muslims for their religious beliefs. So if Soros is saying what everyone is thinking -- which I believe to be true -- then it means that the attitude of the world has turned a corner, and is substantially more hostile to the policies of the CCP than in the past. Soros said: <QUOTE>"I want to use my time tonight to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies. ... Tonight I want to call attention to the mortal danger facing open societies from the instruments of control that machine learning and artificial intelligence can put in the hands of repressive regimes. I’ll focus on China, where Xi Jinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme. A lot of things have happened since last year and I’ve learned a lot about the shape that totalitarian control is going to take in China. ... All the rapidly expanding information available about a person is going to be consolidated in a centralized database to create a “social credit system.” Based on that data, people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the one-party state. People will then be treated accordingly. The social credit system is not yet fully operational, but it’s clear where it’s heading. It will subordinate the fate of the individual to the interests of the one-party state in ways unprecedented in history. I find the social credit system frightening and abhorrent. Unfortunately, some Chinese find it rather attractive because it provides information and services that aren’t currently available and can also protect law-abiding citizens against enemies of the state. China isn’t the only authoritarian regime in the world, but it’s undoubtedly the wealthiest, strongest and most developed in machine learning and artificial intelligence. This makes Xi Jinping the most dangerous opponent of those who believe in the concept of open society. But Xi isn’t alone. Authoritarian regimes are proliferating all over the world and if they succeed, they will become totalitarian."<END QUOTE> George Soros and Financial Advisor and Diplomat **** **** Soros's history with the Nazis and with China **** Soros told of his childhood in Hungary, escaping from the Nazis and the Soviet occupation, and taking refuge in England, where he became a successful hedge fund investor. After he made more money than he knew what to do with, he decided to turn to philanthropy. He started with South Africa. <QUOTE>"In the years that followed, I tried to replicate my success in Hungary and in other Communist countries. I did rather well in the Soviet empire, including the Soviet Union itself, but in China it was a different story. ... Bao Tong was its champion. But the opponents of radical reforms, who were numerous, banded together to attack him. They claimed that I was a CIA agent and asked the internal security agency to investigate. [Bao Tong was replaced by Zhao Ziyang.] Soon thereafter, Zhao Ziyang was removed from power and I used that excuse to close the foundation. This happened just before the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 and it left a “black spot” on the record of the people associated with the foundation. ... In retrospect, it’s clear that I made a mistake in trying to establish a foundation which operated in ways that were alien to people in China."<END QUOTE> Soros went on to sharply criticize the "debt trap diplomacy" of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): <QUOTE>"It was designed to promote the interests of China, not the interests of the recipient countries; its ambitious infrastructure projects were mainly financed by loans, not by grants, and foreign officials were often bribed to accept them. Many of these projects proved to be uneconomic."<END QUOTE> He specifically mentioned the cases in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Pakistan -- where it's turning into a military project. Soros went on to praise US president Donald Trump and vice-president Mike Pence: <QUOTE>"Most importantly, the US government has now identified China as a “strategic rival.” President Trump is notoriously unpredictable, but this decision was the result of a carefully prepared plan. Since then, the idiosyncratic behavior of Trump has been largely superseded by a China policy adopted by the agencies of the administration and overseen by Asian affairs advisor of the National Security Council Matt Pottinger and others. The policy was outlined in a seminal speech by Vice President Mike Pence on October 4th. ... Last year I still believed that China ought to be more deeply embedded in the institutions of global governance, but since then Xi Jinping’s behavior has changed my opinion. My present view is that instead of waging a trade war with practically the whole world, the US should focus on China. Instead of letting ZTE and Huawei off lightly, it needs to crack down on them. If these companies came to dominate the 5G market, they would present an unacceptable security risk for the rest of the world. Regrettably, President Trump seems to be following a different course: make concessions to China and declare victory while renewing his attacks on US allies. This is liable to undermine the US policy objective of curbing China’s abuses and excesses."<END QUOTE> Soros's speech is important because of what it serves as a major signal that the world's attitude is changing towards China, and that it's increasingly acceptable to say so. The last two paragraphs indicate that Soros is misjudging China today as much as when he opened his China Fund in the 1980s. As I've described many times, the mainstream media are completely baffled by Trump's policies, but the policies are completely understandable in view of Trump's attempts to prevent war with China, even though war with China cannot be prevented. If Trump cracked down heavily on ZTE and Huawei, it would have enormous economic effects. China would be furious and even destabilized, and war would occur much more quickly. **** **** China is baffled by Soros's speech **** Just as Soros is baffled by Trump's policies, China is baffled by Soros's speech. Here's the statement given by China's Foreign Ministry: <QUOTE>"On your second question, I have seen relevant reports. In today's world, it is very easy to tell who is opening the door and paving roads and who is closing the door and building walls. Therefore, it is meaningless and worthless to refute these words made by certain individual that call white black and confuse right and wrong. Living in this era where globalization is advancing further on all fronts, only by seeing things in a dynamic way and taking in things with an open and inclusive mind can a country find greater development space for itself and its relations with other countries. We hope that the relevant people on the US side can set right their attitude, broaden their horizon, and view China's development in an objective, reasonable and correct way."<END QUOTE> This is just meaningless babble, and it seems to imply that Soros is speaking for the Trump administration. The reason that China is baffled is because Soros has a decades long history of supporting China. Soros says in his speech that he made a 180 degree U-turn because of China's "frightening and abhorrent" social credit system in just the last year, and the Chinese have no idea what Soros's change of mind means for them and their relations with the world. China Foreign Ministry **** **** China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs **** For several months, we've read that China has swept up a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province and jailed them in "re-education centers," where they're beaten, tortured, raped, abused and executed. Some recent analyses are saying that China's plans go well beyond "re-education." In fact, the plan is the total genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs in the next ten years. According to this analysis, there has been no international outrage about this because Sunni Muslims are so unpopular since 9/11. China has been adroit in using economic and financial packages to silence the Arab and Islamic world's support for the Uighurs. Despite the suppression, not one single Arab or Islamic government has spoken out openly to criticize China for its draconian measures in Xinjiang. China is conducting equally violent crackdowns on Buddhism and Christianity, though without the full-scale genocide. One thing that's really remarkable is that there are now three countries in the world where there is full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing targeting Sunni Muslims, with little international outrage even from Muslim countries. These are:
This is a historic event that will have very serious consequences. Hoover.org (9-Oct-2018) and Straits Times (28-Sep-2018) and Memri (19-Dec-2018) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, George Soros, Davos, World Economic Forum, WEF, Hungary, South Africa, Soviet Union, China, China Fund, Social credit system, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Pakistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 02-06-2019 I definitely can imagine that Africa had Crisis wars during the 60s. Their Turnings don't work like ours. One point for you. 14-Feb-19 World View -- India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by - John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2019 *** 14-Feb-19 World View -- India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** India's Open Magazine: The West gets constantly surprised by Iran **** The following articles appeared on Wednesday in India's Open Magazine: World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy, by John J. Xenakis Available on Amazon 13 February 2019 The West gets constantly surprised by Iran because of their universal stupidity, says John J Xenakis On the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, an American scholar talks about its impact on world politics by John J Xenakis <QUOTE>"John J. Xenakis juggles multiple careers: that of a software engineer, historian, journalist, analyst and author. The American scholar, who has developed what he calls the “generational theory” to forecast the future of countries and people, is the author of World View: Iran’s struggle for Supremacy. As Iran celebrates the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution this month, Xenakis delves deep into the legacy of its spearhead Ayatollah Khomeini and how the historical event changed the course of world history. He argues that it is a pity that most journalists and politicians don’t have even “the vaguest clue of what's going on Iran”. He also talks about other countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia which is fighting a proxy war with Iran in many parts of the region. Edited excerpts from an interview with Executive Editor Ullekh NP"<END QUOTE> **** **** Effects of 1979 Islamic Revolution on the Mideast and the world **** Looking back, how has the Islamic Revolution of 40 years ago altered the history of the Middle East and the rest of the world? There were three events that occurred in 1979 that set the direction of the Mideast. The Islamic Revolution changed Iran from a Western ally to a Western enemy, and radicalized the Mideast. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which was an invasion of a Muslim nation by a Christian nation, further radicalized the Mideast and Pakistan. And the Salafist attack on Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque was the first major terrorist attack in recent times. It led to Osama bin Laden and his band of jihadists to leave Saudi Arabia and go to Afghanistan to fight the Russians. These events can be traced directly to the Iran-Iraq war and to the 9/11 terror attack. What are your thoughts on Ayatollah Khomeini's legacy? Ruhollah Khomeini's greatest sin is that he corrupted Islam by twisting it into a policy called Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) which turned himself into an "infallible" Supreme Leader who could order the arrests, torture, rape, beatings, and executions of political opponents with impunity. Furthermore, he devised a constitution with absolutely no checks and balances, which makes Iran a kleptocracy, unable to get anything done except with bribery and extortion. Khomeini was truly evil. He has fouled Islam and destroyed Iran. Many famous intelligence officials and news correspondents who have worked in Iran have opined that they had underestimated the inherent strengths of that country to survive insurmountable odds. What do you think? Dictators always survive in a police state, where political opponents can be arrested, tortured, raped, beaten, and executed at will with impunity. What you call "inherent strength" is the ability to use violence to control the opposition. A lot of people talk about "regime change" in Iran, without having any idea what that means. If all it means replacing one Supreme Leader by another, it will make no difference at all. The problem is that the constitution and entire government are a kleptocracy, where it's impossible to survive without bribery, corruption and violence. However, generational theory tells us that an important change is coming. The fanatical hardliners in Iran are in the generations that lived through and fought in the 1979 Revolution, and those people are quickly disappearing. The younger generations, who grew up after the 1979 Revolution, have no such fanaticism. In fact, they're generally pro-American, pro-Western, and have no particular interest in seeing Israel pushed into the sea. These younger generations are increasingly in power, and they will dramatically change Iran's politics. Some opposition figures are even suggesting that the son of the deceased Shah could come back and restore a secular government. Do you think that Iran has been villainized over the past 40 years because it took on the might of the US and threw an American stooge out of power? How justified are the West's sanctions on that country? Iran is a country that abducted American ambassadors, and declares "death to America" and "death to Israel" every single day. They're corrupt, violent terrorists, and they're spreading terror throughout the Mideast in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen. Of course, they're going to be villanized, and they deserve it. Just as Hindus in India feel an emotional link with Shia Muslims in Iran, and tend to excuse Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical Christians in America feel a close emotional link to Jews in Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins **** **** Iran and India vs Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China **** Isn’t it Saudi Arabia, a friend of the US, that is the fountainhead of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East (we feel the pressure in India as well because Islamism in India is also funded by the Saudis)? Why do you insist it is Iran? Besides, Israel isn't a saint after all and has earned the wrath of UNHCR on many occasions for its treatment of Palestinian civilians. It is a country whose economic mainstay is arms and its government has been accused of terrorism by religious groups within. Your comments. Saudi Arabia is "A fountainhead," not "THE fountainhead." In Yemen, SA is in a never-ending proxy war with Iran, in Syria SA is supporting many anti-Assad rebels. The Jamal Khashoggi incident has shocked everyone, and has had the ironic effect of pushing SA closer to Pakistan. Many people also blame SA for 9/11. SA itself has an internal split between the Sauds and the Wahhabis. At any rate, Saudi Arabia and Iran are headed for war. Many in the US Congress do not consider SA to be a friend. Obama hated SA, and SA hated Obama. SA and US have had a close relationship since the 1930s based on the following core agreement: SA will provide oil to the world, and the US will provide security to the Mideast. Trump's "friendship" with SA is based on that core agreement. This core agreement greatly benefits everyone, including India. There have been many problems in the SA-US relationship over the decades, but this core agreement has remained the most important factor. And if I'm not mistaken, most of the funding for Islamism in India comes not from the Saudis but from Pakistan's ISI. However, that may be a distinction without a difference because Pakistan is a close ally of SA and China, both of whom are enemies of India. India, on the other hand, is a close ally of Iran, as illustrated by the Chabahar seaport project. Hindus and Shia Muslims have been allies for centuries, all the way back to the seminal Battle of Karbala in 680. I discussed this in my book. Nobody's a saint, especially in the Mideast. Israel is a democracy and has an independent judiciary, which makes them unique in the Mideast. Muslim Arabs are much safer living in Israel, and have more freedoms, than in any other Mideast country. Just as Hindus in India feel a close emotional link with Shia Muslims in Iran, and tend to excuse Iran's sins, Jews and evangelical Christians in America feel a close emotional link to Jews in Israel, and tend to excuse Israel's sins. There's also anti-Jewish sentiment in the US -- read the current news stories about Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, who is the Somali Muslim congressional representative from Minneapolis, which has a large Somali community. Many in the US consider UNHCR to be highly biased, condemning actions in Israel while ignoring massively greater human rights violations by others. Did the 1979 Revolution intensify the Shia-Sunni conflict and how? By changing from a secular government to a radical Shia government, they radicalized the Wahhabi Sunni extremists and other jihadists. What are the untold stories of the Islamic Revolution? Why did Saddam Hussein spare Khomeini while the latter was in exile in Iraq? How come he became a darling of the international media overnight in France? Were there more to these developments than meets the eye? These are all political developments that were not nearly as important as the three major events in 1979 that I listed above. Iran is still a power that continues to surprise the West. Do you think there are chances that it will become a nuclear power soon? Well, I was surprised myself when I did research for my book and discovered that no analysts, journalists or politicians have even the vaguest clue what's going on Iran, as judged by the fact that they say one incredibly stupid thing after another every day. That's why they keep getting surprised -- because of their universal stupidity. Will it be a nuclear power soon? They're undoubtedly continuing some nuclear development, and/or buying nuclear technology from North Korea. Even under the Iran nuclear treaty, they're permitted to develop nuclear weapons by 2025, and they're certainly planning to do so. How important is it to understand Iran in order to understand political Islam? I don't even know what this means, since no one wants to bother to understand political Islam or Islam at any level. However, someone who wants to understand Iran and Islam can start by reading my book, which has the best and most accessible exposition of both that I've seen. Who are your favourite historians who have written extensively on Iran? The best was Homa Katouzian. In my book, I showed how generational changes led to the historical flow Russia/Britain-Iran border wars -> Tobacco Revolt -> Constitutional Revolution -> White Revolution protests -> Islamic Revolution. Most historians discussed these as individual, almost unrelated events. Katouzian was the only one who understood how one leads to the next. Open Magazine (India) **** **** Massive terror attack on Iran's IRGC **** On the same day that the above article was published, there was a massive terror attack in southeastern Iran, targeting a bus carrying members of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Supreme Leader's security forces that conduct the most vicious atrocities against any peaceful protester or anyone who says something not approved by the dictatorial government. A suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives targeted the bus, causing a massive explosion. Official government figures put the number of dead at 20, although other reports say that as many as 41 IRGC members were killed. Dozens more were injured. The attack took place in Sistan-Baluchistan province, near the border with Pakistan. The Sunni terrorist group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), which says it wants greater rights for the ethnic minority Baluchis, took credit for the attack. This group was formed in 2012 as an offshoot of the al-Qaeda linked Jundallah, which is in the Pakistan Taliban. Both Jundullah (Soldiers of God) and Jaish-ul-Adl (Army of Justice) have stated openly that they're committed to the extermination of all Shia Muslims. Jundullah itself was an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) which in 2013 issued the following statement: <QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan."<END QUOTE> In 2010, Iran captured and executed Jundullah's leader Abdulmalik Rigi, and declared that the defeat of Jundullah. But Jundullah reconstituted itself with new leadership, and stepped up the attacks on Iran, claiming revenge for the execution of Rigi. Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl are offshoots that have extended the extermination plan from Pakistan across the border into Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. On January 29, a bomb explored in the provincial capital Zahedan, and three members of a bomb squad were wounded when a second device blew up. There have been dozens of such attacks in recent years, killing hundreds of people. Two people were killed and about 40 wounded in the port city of Chabahar early December. The Chabahar port project is an important part of the strategic relationship between Iran and India, as I mentioned in the Open Magazine article quoted above. For that reason, it's possible that Jundullah and Jaish-ul-Adl attacks on Sistan-Baluchistan province are also intended to be an attack on Indian assets. For Wednesday's attack, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, declared that the blame goes to the United States because of a Mideast summit being held in Poland. Zarif tweeted: <QUOTE>"Is it no coincidence that Iran is hit by terror on the very day that #WarsawCircus begins? Especially when cohorts of same terrorists cheer it from Warsaw streets & support it with twitter bots? US seems to always make the same wrong choices, but expect different results."<END QUOTE> A Foreign Ministry spokesman added, "The self-sacrificing military and intelligence children of the people of Iran will take revenge for the blood of the martyrs of this incident." I've been writing about Jundullah's terror attacks on Iran for almost ten years, and even though the attacks are being conducted by a group vowing to exterminate all Shia Muslims, Iranian officials always find a way to make delusional statements blaming the attacks on the US. Press TV (Iran) and Radio Farda and Guardian (London) and Reuters Related Articles:
**** **** Coming soon: World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis **** A new book, World View: The Conflict between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis in the Generational Theory Series, will be published soon. The topics include:
As the book is being completed, there's an active discussion going on in the Generational Dynamics forum about it's contents, as well as book excerpts and other World View stories. If you'd like to follow the discussion, or even contribute your own thoughts and comments, do any of the following:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Open Magazine, Ullekh NP, Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini, Wilayat al-Faqih, Guardianship of the Jurist, Hindus, Jews, Evangelical Christians, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Jamal Khashoggi, Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden, Soviet Russia, Pakistan, China, Chabahar seaport, Homa Katouzian, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Sistan-Baluchistan, Abdulmalik Rigi, Jundullah, Soldiers of God, Jaish-ul-Adl, Army of Justice, China, Japan, Korea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 02-14-2019 John, in response to your comments regarding the many historical examples you have documented, your efforts are appreciated. Collecting extensive evidence for generational theory may seem a thankless task, but is valuable. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 02-14-2019 Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has written a couple books relevant to this 4T: The Accidental Superpower and The Absent Superpower. He describes his theories in YouTube videos. A key point he makes is that the world is on the verge of what he calls the Disorder. This will lead to wars. In Absent he devotes a chapter each to The Twilight War, The (Next) Gulf War, and The Tanker War. In the Twilight War the Russians invade the countries to their west to create a buffer against invasion. The (Next) Gulf War is war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Resulting in a drastic reduction, if not complete shut down, of tanker shipments from the gulf, leading to.... The Tanker War. China and Japan will be on opposite sides, as each scrambles to secure supplies from the Gulf. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 02-14-2019 Peter Zeihan begins to describe the wars about 27 minutes into the video. With diagrams. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feU7HT0x_qU RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-14-2019 (02-14-2019, 12:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > John, in response to your comments regarding the many historical Thankless for sure! Thank you! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 02-14-2019 Interesting diagram showing imports vs. exports for different countries, about 5 minutes and 50 seconds into the video. Note the USA's position on the far right. Then Zeihan describes the Shale Revolution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BclcpfVn2rg I'm not, however, as complacent as Zeihan. I can't discount the possibility that the United States might get dragged into a war. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 24-Feb-2019 Saudi's bin Salman sucks up to China and OKs Uighur genocide As I've been saying for over a decade, China will be allied with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, and the China-Saudi alliance took a big leap forward this past week when Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs "fighting terrorism," in exchange for lucrative financial agreements between the two countries. China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. Last week, the national oil giant Saudi Aramco signed an agreement to form a Saudi-Chinese joint venture, worth more than $10bn, to develop a refining and petrochemical complex in China's northeastern Liaoning province in the former Manchuria. Also, the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority also the signing of 35 non-binding memorandums of understanding, worth $28bn, including deals related to energy, mining, transportation and e-commerce. In exchange, MBS made the following statement during his visit to China, in reference to the Muslim Uighurs in in East Turkistan (China's Xinjiang province): Quote:> "We respect and support China's right to take counter-terrorism A spokesman for Britain's Muslim Council called the remarks "disgusting" and a defense of "the use of concentration camps against Uighur Muslims." Saudi Arabia claims to be the defender of all Muslims worldwide, and is the home of the two holiest cities in the Muslim faith, Mecca and Medina. Every Muslim in the world is commanded to make a Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca at least once in his lifetime. This year, the Hajj will occur on August 9-14, but it's not known whether Uighur Muslims will be welcome. It's already true that Shia Muslims from Iran are not particularly welcome, and Sunni Muslims from Qatar are not particularly welcome, so it seems possible that last week's tacit approval of China's Uighur genocide will extend not welcoming Sunni Muslim Uighurs to attend this year's Hajj. We'll see. China has been extremely effective in using threats, extortion and bribery to keep Muslim countries from condemning the genocide. Earlier this month, Turkey broke ranks with a harsh condemnation of the East Turkistan concentration camps, where over a million ethnic Uighurs are allegedly being subjected to beatings, torture, rape and other atrocities before they are executed and sent to the new crematoria. The Uighurs are ethnically Turkic, and speak a Turkic language, and so Turkey a special reason for the condemnation, but that special reason doesn't apply to the Arab Muslims, like the Saudis. One of the most surprising aspects of this situation are the dramatic outcomes of the Jamal Khashoggi incident. Khashoggi was killed in Istanbul, Turkey, in the Saudi embassy, in an extremely bizarre and sickening murder, and MBS is widely believed to have ordered the killing. This has isolated MBS from the rest of the world. Since Pakistan was on the verge of financial disaster and was desperate, Pakistan was able to leverage the Khashoggi incident to convince Saudi Arabia to loan Pakistan $6 billion, in exchange for MBS recognition from Pakistan. And now China has been able leverage the Khashoggi incident and make the MBS, the defender of all Muslims, approve the genocide of Uighur Muslims. It may not be correct to say that the Khashoggi incident has CHANGED history, but it certainly seems to have SPED UP history, by cementing the China - Pakistan - Saudi alliance. On tv this morning, a news announced was shocked to learn that only 75% of Americans in a poll said that they had heard of the Jewish Holocaust in the 1940s. I wonder what that percentage would be about the similar Holocaust going on today of Muslim Uighurs? In fact, there are actually three genocides going on in three countries today, and almost nobody cares. Even though Sunni Muslims are being exterminated in all three cases (China, Burma/Myanmar, and Syria), there's no outrage being expressed by any of the 50 Muslim-majority countries, with the possible exception of Turkey. For decades, Jews have criticized the West for not even speaking out against the Holocaust against Jews while it was going on. And yet, few if any Westerners are expressing outrage against the three genocides of Sunni Muslims going on today. Even if you, Dear Reader, say you hate Muslims and that they should all be exterminate, that's exactly what many people said about the Jews. However, even that reasoning doesn't apply to the 50 Muslim majority countries of the world. Except for Turkey, why aren't they speaking out? Even Kazakhstan, whose Kazakh citizens are thrown into the same concentration camps as the Uighurs when they cross the border into China, are kowtowing to China, rather than risk losing financial perks or a military action. So for those of you who wondered about the Jewish Holocaust happened, why it happened, and why it wasn't prevented or stopped, just analyze what's happening today -- it's exactly the same. --- Uighurs / Salman / Saudi crown prince defends China's right to fight 'terrorism' https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/saudi-crown-prince-defends-china-fight-terrorism-190223104647149.html (Al-Jazeera) --- Salman / Uighurs / Saudi crown prince defends China’s use of internment camps for Uighur Muslims http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/saudi-crown-prince-defends-chinas-use-of-internment-camps-for-uighur-muslims-141432 (Hurriyet, Turkey) --- Uighurs call on MBS to condemn persecution of Muslim minority during China visit https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uighurs-call-mbs-condemn-persecution-muslim-minority-during-china-visit (Middle East Eye) --- Uighurs / Saudi’s bin Salman mum on China’s abuse of Uyghur Muslims as he touts ties https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/saudis-bin-salman-mum-on-chinas-abuse-of-uyghur-muslims-as-he-touts-ties-3475198 (Yeni Safak, Turkey) --- Related: --- 9-Feb-2019 Turkey condemns China's Uighur 'concentration camps,' then backs down http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=43985#p43985 ** 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181116.htm#e181116 ** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190113.htm#e190113 ** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190127.htm#e190127 --- 10-Feb-2019 China releases video of Uigher singer, claiming it proves that he's alive http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=43995#p43995 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 24-Feb-2019 Etherial Trump-Kim summit to take place at mid-week President Donald Trump is preparing to fly to Hanoi, Vietnam, for the summit on Wednesday and Thursday with North Korea's Kim Jong-un. Kim is not flying. He's taking a train from North Korea's capital city Pyongyang to China's capital city Beijing, to meet with China's president Xi Jinping. Then he'll hop on the train again until it comes to the Vietnam border where, ordering to a report I heard, he'll have to travel in a motorcade because Vietnam can't or won't permit the train to continue. A year go, everyone was hopin' and prayin' that Kim would agree to "denuclearize," but as I wrote repeatedly, that was never going to happen. In fact, that train left the station (so to speak) months ago. Today, North Korea has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, and plenty to plutonium to make many more. The only thing he hasn't been able to do is openly test them. Kim wants Trump to agree to lift the harsh sanctions that were imposed in the past. There would be a huge backlash in Washington if Trump agreed to anything like that, so I'm assuming that he won't. Instead, he keeps talking about how much he and Kim love each other (presumably in a father-son relationship), and Trump brags about the fact that no tests have been conducted for over a year. The one thing that might be agreed to is the end of the Korean War. The Korean war ended in 1953 in an armistice ceasefire, and North and South Korea are theoretically still at war. The North has pushed for an agreement to end the war in the past. Washington has resisted, because it might imply that American troops in South Korea would have to be withdrawn. So according to some reports, there might be an agreement to end the Korea War, with the American troops remaining. However, the question is whether Kim will renounce his intention to send his million man army across the border to attack Seoul. The North has repeatedly said that it wants the North and South to be reunited under the North's control. If Kim renounced that intention in return for agreement to end the war, it would add a great deal of symbolic value. So the expectations for the meeting are pretty low. At the end of there week there may be a symbolic paper agreement to end the war in some way, but I would expect that the sanctions will continue, and North Korea will continue to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, but not test them. He's already proven that his missiles can reach Japan, and that may be enough for him anyway, for now. --- White House vows to shed Obama-era policy of 'cowering' before North Korea ahead of second Trump-Kim summit https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-vows-to-shed-obama-era-policy-of-cowering-before-north-korea-ahead-of-second-trump-kim-summit (Fox News) --- Don't stop believin' in a successful summit https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47327473 (BBC) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 25-Feb-2019 Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif resigns in anger Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif unexpectedly announced his resignation on Monday, Feb 25. He gave no reason for the resignation, but posted the following on Instagram (the only major social media network not banned in Iran): Quote: "Many thanks for the generosity of the dear and brave people of Zarif has been highly visible for the past five years as he worked closely with America's Secretary of State John Kerry to get international agreement on the JCPOA, the international nuclear agreement. This was hailed as a massive diplomatic victory for both Zarif and Kerry, and there was talk of giving them the Nobel Peace Prize. It also meant the lifting of sanctions, giving Iran tens of billions of dollars to spend as it wished. However, Donald Trump came into office and withdrew America from the JCPOA, reinstating some sanctions, making it illegal for any entity doing business in the United States to do business with Iran. Since almost every major international bank does business in the United States, this shut down much of Iran's international trade. So when Zarif apologized for "all the shortcomings" in his resignation post, he may have been referring to effective collapse of the JCPOA. At last week's Munich Security Conference, he said that the US was "driven by pathological obsession." Zarif spoke in a manner that was undiplomatically furious, especially because the Europeans were unable or unwilling to break the sanctions, despite giving lip service to a desire to do so. A BBC reporter (Lyse Doucet) who has interviewed Zarif many times over the years said that she had never seen him so angry. So presumably that speech was related to Monday's resignation. A pro-Iran analyst on the BBC today blamed Trump for the failure of the JCPOA, saying that everything would have worked out fine if Trump hadn't been elected president. That's an interesting claim, but it's more likely that the JCPOA would have been a disaster for Iran even if Hillary Clinton had become president. To understand this, we have to remember that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, with a big political split between the generations of hardline aging geezers who fought in the 1979 Revolution and the younger generations of Iranian growing up after the 1979 civil war. Starting in 1999, college students in Iran were holding anti-government protests, and Iran's leadership ordered Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) thugs to go out and beat, torture, rape, jail, and execute peaceful protesters. This slowed the protests down, but they continued. There were huge protests in December 2017, a month before Trump took office. In an article that I wrote at the time, I tracked the slogans as they morphed. The original protests were about the economy and government corruption:
The next day, they had morphed into general anti-government and anti-regime protests:
Anti-war protests zeroed in on Iran's enormous expenditures on war efforts for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen:
All of these protests were occurring BEFORE Trump took office, and certainly before Trump withdrew from JCPOA. With regard to the JCPOA, young people in Iran were particularly furious at how the money from lifting the sanctions had been squandered. Instead of spending it to help the average Iranian, it was spent on corruption among the Shia clerics, corruption in the IRGC, and in military misadventures throughout the region, in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. It's a rule of life that receiving a big pile of money can end up being a curse, because you can use the money to do evil or to make unsustainable commitments. We see this today in Venezuela, where a huge gusher of money turned the country from one of the richest in the world into the disaster you see today. That's the path Iran was on before Trump reimposed the sanctions. If anything, Trump did Iran a big favor. When I heard of Zarif's resignation, and particularly the angry bitterness of his Instagram post, the thing that popped into my mind was the resignation of President Lyndon Johnson in 1968. There's a great deal of similarity between the two. Both resignations occurred during a generational Awakening era, when their policies were opposed by the younger generations. Johnson's resignation followed the massive and heartbreaking protests by teens and students in the 1967 Summer of Love. Zarif has given no reason why he is resigning. One possibility is that, like Lyndon Johnson, he was heartbroken that he'd given his life to a cause that was massively opposed by the younger generations. What was the point of doing it, if everyone you love hates it? Does Zarif's resignation signal regime change? Probably not. If we use the Lyndon Johnson resignation as an example, it signaled a change of mood that led to "regime change," but the actual regime change didn't occur for six years, until Richard Nixon was forced to resign. --- Iran / Mohammad Javad Zarif / Zarif resigned http://www.irna.ir/fa/News/83222670 (IRNA - Iran) https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fa&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irna.ir%2Ffa%2FNews%2F83222670 (Translation) --- Mohammad Javad Zarif: Iran's foreign minister announces resignation https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47362962 (BBC) --- Why Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif may have resigned https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/why-irans-foreign-minister-javad-zarif-may-have-resigned (Washington Examiner) --- Related: ** 2-Jan-18 World View -- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180102.htm#e180102 ** 30-Dec-17 World View -- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e171230.htm#e171230 ** Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love. ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e070612b.htm#e070612b RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 25-Feb-2019 Indian airstrikes on Pakistani side in Kashmir Reports that Indian warplanes are striking targets on the Pakistani side of the line of control (LoC) in Kashmir. Might be serious. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 25-Feb-2019 Update: Indian airstrikes on Pakistani side in Kashmir https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/pakistan-says-indian-aircraft-crossed-kashmir-frontier-1.1551149047465 Pakistan says Indian aircraft crossed Kashmir frontier Pakistan says Indian aircraft 'released a payload' before 'escaping'; no casualties Published: February 26, 2019 06:40 Reuters Islamabad: Pakistan’s military said on Wednesday Indian military aircraft crossed the line of control frontier in the disputed Kashmir region and “released a payload” after Pakistan scrambled its own jets, but there was no casualties or damage. “Indian aircrafts intruded from Muzafarabad sector,” Pakistani military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor said on Twitter early on Wednesday, referring to an area in the Pakistan-administered part of Kashmir. He said “facing timely and effective response from Pakistan Air Force”, the Indian aircraft “released payload in haste while escaping which fell near Balakot. No casualties or damage.” Note: This is a Reuters story published in Gulf News, which is a pro-Pakistan Arab media source. -- JJX RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 26-Feb-2019 Pakistan-India governments in confusion over airstrikes For the time being, Kashmir is the most dangerous place in the world, and the most likely to trigger a larger war. As we reported last night, Indian warplanes bombed tarkets in Pakistan, across the line of control (LoC) in Kashmir. India says that it bombed a JeM training camp on the Pakistani side, killing many terrorists and commanders. Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is the Pakistani terrorist group that claimed credit for the worst terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir in decades, occurring on February 14. Over 40 Indian security forces were killed. On Tuesday, India responded by conducting the first warplane airstrikes on Pakistani soil since the massive 1971 war between India and Pakistan. India says that dozens of JeM militants were killed. Pakistan says that the attacks are "reckless and fictitious," and that nobody was killed, and that India had to drop its bombs on open fields and flee, in order to avoid being shot down by Pakistani warplanes. Pakistan says that if hundreds of people had been killed, then there would be lots of funerals, but there aren't any. Pakistan says that it will retaliate at a place and time of its choosing. India says that if there are more terror attacks, then it will strike on Pakistani soil again. --- India 'air strikes' send Pakistan tensions surging https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/india-air-strikes-send-pakistan-tensions-surging/ar-BBU5wJg (AFP) --- Pakistan / The Latest: Khan says India's claim on bombing 'fictitious' https://www.koin.com/news/the-latest-india-strike-killed-large-number-of-militants/1810962341 (AP) --- India-Pakistan tensions escalate with airstrikes across Kashmir border https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/26/pakistan-india-jets-breached-ceasefire-line-kashmir-bomb (Guardian, London) --- Pakistan defense analyst - Analysis of Indian airstrike in Kashmir https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ispr-press-conference.604134/page-2 (Pakistan Defense Ministry) --- Related: *** 19-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan tensions again escalate after Kashmir gunfight http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44125#p44125 *** 14-Feb-2019 Biggest terror attack in years in India-controlled Kashmir http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44044#p44044 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 27-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan conflict escalates with warplane clash For the first time since 1971, Pakistani and Indian warplanes have clashed, resulting in at least one plane being shot down. Pakistan’s Civil Aviation Authority says it has shut its airspace across the country to all commercial flights, resulting in numerous flight cancelations and inconveniencing passenges. Kashmir continues to be the most dangerous place in the world today, and the place where the probability of tit-for-tat escalation leading to a major war is highest, at the current point in time.
As we've been reporting for weeks, the current round of tit-for-tat attacks began on February 14, when the Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) claimed credit for the worst terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir in decades, occurring on February 14. Over 40 Indian security forces were killed when an explosive-laden vehicle (VBIED) crashed into bus in a convoy of Indian forces and exploded. This was the worst terrorist attack in Kashmir in years. Then on Tuesday (26-Feb), Indian warplanes struck across the Line of Control (LoC) into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir. This was the first Indian warplane strike inside Pakistan since the massive 1971 India-Pakistan war. There's still some confusion about what was actually struck, with India claiming that hundreds of JeM militants were killed in their training camp, while Pakistan says there were no casualties, and that the attack was "reckless and fictitious." Pakistan vowed to retaliate at a place and time of its choosing. On Wednesday, there was an actual clash between Indian and Pakistani warplanes, for the first time since 1971. Both sides claimed to have shot down enemy warplanes, but the only thing that's been confirmed is that an Indian warplane was shot down, and the pilot is in custody in Pakistan. However, the details of who was shot down, though important, are not nearly as important as the fact that the situation appears to be escalating, almost on a daily basis. According to a retired Indian diplomat Lalit Mansingh, India’s policy of strategic restraint “is no longer.” Pakistan continues to say that it will retaliate. This is a good time to remind readers of the Marco Polo Bridge incident that started World War II in 1937. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century.
And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his way back. So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered because someone unexpectedly had to pee. And it's not so far-fetched to wonder if the situation in Kashmir will lead to World War III. --- India, Pakistan down each other's jets as Kashmir conflict heats up https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir/india-pakistan-down-each-others-jets-as-kashmir-conflict-heats-up-idUKKCN1QG0IQ?il=0 (Reuters) --- Kashmir / Fears rise amid India-Pakistan escalation https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-47383889 (BBC) --- The Latest: Germany urges dialogue between India, Pakistan https://www.apnews.com/726be65d13bb4c058cec1a4d9e2fa043 (AP) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 27-Feb-2019 Nationalism and xenophobia rising rapidly in India and Pakistan According to the BBC, Indian TV channels have abandoned attempts at partiality, and are calling the Pakistanis "dastardly," and worse. At the same time, there are growing anti-India protests in Pakistan, and Pakistan has even banned showing any moviews containing Indian content.
There is a lot of international pressure on both sides to tamp down the threats, with Britain, China, the US, and many other countries calling on both sides to show restraint. This could well result in some sort of negotiated settlement. But recall that in the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I summarized above, the negotiated peace broke down quickly, and there was full scale war within a few weeks. One more thing: There are three major separatist terror groups in Kashmir: Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is a relatively new indigenous jihadist group, and is responsible for last week's massive terror incident. Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM) is an indigenous, home-grown jihadist group that became considerably more violent after the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is a Pakistan-based terrorist group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. If any one of these separatist groups launches a new terror attack in the current highly nationalistic time, that could be the trigger that causes India to launch a military action or even declare war. A war in Kashmir has been building since the Partition War ended in 1949. Four generations later, the time is coming. --- Pakistan Bans Indian Films as Asian Neighbors Talk of War https://variety.com/2019/film/asia/pakistan-bans-indian-films-war-1203150699/ (Variety) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit According to a report on the Fox Business Network this morning, Donald Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un by revealing intelligence that America knows a lot more about North Korea's nuclear and missile development sites than Kim had previously revealed. According to the report, Kim had hoped to bluff his way through a commitment to close the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center in exchange for an immediate end to all sanctions. Kim Jong-un appears to be replaying the same fraudulent script that his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded the United States and the world. So Trump undoubtedly reminded Kim of Bush's experience, and gave that as a reason why immediate lifting of sanctions was impossible. But the report says that Trump went much further by calling on John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, who were present at the meeting and had thoroughly prepared Trump for the meeting, to reveal intelligence that America knew a lot more about Kim's nuclear and ballistic missile weapons programs than the North believed. Trump was able to say that Kim had to do more than promise to denuclearize. He would have to provide a step-by-step plan for how it would be accomplished. This would also include a step-by-step plan for how sanctions would be lifted simultaneously. Kim did not want to provide a step-by-step plan to denuclearize. He simply wanted all sanctions lifted, with a promise to denuclearize, as his father did. So Trump canceled the planned lunch and joint news conference and walked away. Trump was also sending a message to China that he's prepared to walk away from the China trade negotiations. Left on the table was the proposal to sign a treaty with South Korea and China to officially end the 1950s Korean War, which ended with an armistace/ceasefire. --- Trump cuts short North Korea summit after dispute over sanctions: 'Sometimes you have to walk' https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-wasnt-prepared-to-lift-us-sanctions-on-north-korea-leading-to-abrupt-end-to-summit (Fox News) --- Related: ** 5-Nov-18 World View -- US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181105.htm#e181105 ********** UPDATE: The following article contains a little more information on how the Trump team blindsided the Kim team: --- Trump-Kim summit was cut short after North Korea demanded an end to sanctions https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/white-house-trump-kim-meetings-change-of-schedule.html (CNBC) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 1-Mar-2019 Pakistan returns captured pilot to India, de-escalating tensions
In the last couple of hours, Pakistan has returned the captured Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman to India. Pakistan's president Imran Kahn described it as a "gesture of peace," and it does seem to have de-escalated tensions for the time being. India's narrative seems to be falling apart in several ways. India claimed that it had killed hundreds of terrorists in a bombing of a terrorist training camp run by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), which had taken responsibility for a massive terrorist attack that killed over 40 Indian soldiers, but there have been no bodies and no funerals. India claimed that it had shot down a Pakistani warplane, but apparently it hasn't. Initially, when Pakistan shot down the Indian warplane and captured the pilot, India's population were united behind Narendra Modi, but in the days since then, the political opposition have turned against Modi, and everyone is just relieved to have Varthaman back, whom they regard as a hero. --- Abhinandan Varthaman / Pakistan hands over captured fighter pilot to India, de-escalating war tension https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-pakistan-india-pilot-20190301-story.html (AP) |