Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 3-Mar-2019 Canada's planned extradition of Huawei exec raises tensions Canada announced on Friday that it will go ahead with hearings on the extradition of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou to the United States, based on a series of harsh indictments that the US Dept. of Justice laid out in January. The charges went far beyond theft of intellectual property when a multi-year investigation revealed massive international bank fraud by Huawei in order to violate US sanctions against Iran. As CFO of Huawei, Meng is charged with masterminding this bank fraud.
Canada's Dept. of Justice explained the decision: "Canada is a country governed by the rule of law. The decision on whether to issue an Authority to Proceed was made by Department of Justice ... officials who are part of a non-partisan public service." However, China's Foreign Ministry issued a furious response: Quote:> "The Chinese side deplores and firmly opposes the Canadian side's China's use of the phrase "legal rights" has to be interpreted. China is contemptuous of international law, as illustrated by its illegal activities in Xinjiang Province, where it is conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs, and its illegal activities in the South China Sea, where it is pursuing a massive military buildup in violation of a United Nations court decision declaring China's activities to be illegal. So China's view is that international law does not apply to China, and of course neither do Canadian or American law. The only law that applies to China is Chinese law. And in this case, the relevant Chinese law is the 2017 National Intelligence Law which, among other things, requires Huawei and other companies to cooperate with the military in gathering intelligence, and also promises to proect anyone who does so. Article 7 of the law says: Quote:> "All organizations and citizens shall, in accordance with the law, So when China refers to "legal rights," it means according to Chinese law. Since Meng's crimes -- stealing intellectual property and international bank fraud -- were made in collaboration with China's military, they're perfectly legal in Chinese law. Furthermore, the same law requires China's military to "protect" Meng for cooperating with the military. China has already jailed two Canadian citizens in retaliation, and they may take some other steps to "protect" Meng. What the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials, who are pursuing some of the stupidest policies in the history of the world, do not understand is that by arresting Canadian citizens in retaliation, they're making it impossible for Canada to release Meng under any circumstances, since any such act would be seen as giving in to Chinese extortion. Canada will now proceed to the extradition hearing. Apparently, the court proceedings could go on for several months, especially if Meng appeals, and so this situation is far from over. It's believed that Canada will almost certainly grant the extradition request. Whenever that happens, China may then decide to retaliate against the United States, in order to "protect" Meng. Politically, this issue is being tied in with Huawei's international public relations campaign to convince anyone who will listen that Huawei has not installed "backdoors" into its devices to allow China's military to spy on them and control them. As I've said in the past, I've spent a part of my career as a senior software engineer developing chip-level operating system software for embedded systems, so I know exactly how any chip or any electronic device can be turned into a tool for espionage. Furthermore, I can tell you that not only is it doable, it's not even particularly difficult for someone with the right skills. This "backdoor" could not be detected by tests, because the chip would work normally until a backdoor is activated by receiving, say, a secret 1024-bit code. Then it will execute commands sent to it by Chinese engineers. Thus, the Chinese are then in control of any devices with Huawei chips, and it cannot be detected until it's too late. The National Intelligence Law, quoted above, requires Huawei to cooperate with the military. Since nobody has gone to jail for violating this law, we have to assume, since installing backdoors is easy and undetectable, that they have in fact been installed. Based on my experience in developing embedded software, and on my extensive research on China, I am 100% certain of this. --- Sources: --- Canada allows extradition hearings against Huawei executive Meng https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-allows-extradition-hearing-against-huawei-executive-meng/ (Globe and Mail, Canada, 1-Mar-2019) --- Huawei / Meng Wanzhou / Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang's Remarks https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1642402.shtml (China, Foreign Ministry, 1-Mar) --- Wanzhou extradition a ‘serious political incident’, China tells Canada https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2188341/meng-wanzhou-extradition-serious-political-incident-china-tells (South China Morning Post, China) --- Sorry Beijing, the SNC-Lavalin affair is not your ace card in the Meng case https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/sorry-beijing-the-snc-lavalin-affair-is-not-your-ace-card-in-the-meng-case/ (Macleans, Canada) --- China calls ‘bunk’ on Huawei threat as Canada’s decision on Meng Wanzhou looms https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2188257/china-calls-bunk-huawei-threat-canadas-decision-meng-wanzhou (South China Morning Post, China) --- Related: ** 16-Feb-2019 Canada's arrest of Huawei's Meng Wanzhou requires military response from China http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44077#p44077 ** 8-Dec-18 World View -- Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181208.htm#e181208 ** 19-Feb-2019 Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei makes laughable claims about not spying http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44130#p44130 ** 12-Jan-19 World View -- China's economy destabilizes as Huawei introduces cheap smartphone ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190112.htm#e190112 ** 12-Dec-18 World View -- China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181212.htm#e181212 ** 8-Dec-18 World View -- Arrest of Meng Wanzhou of China's Huawei has increasingly serious implications ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181208.htm#e181208 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 3-March-2019 The Macroeconomic charts that dare not be shown Following up on a discussion in the Financial Topics thread: If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg TV, then you've seen thousands of charts, graphing all kinds of obscure stuff. But they never show a historical chart of price/earings ratios, which is what stock valuations are all about. They talk about stock valuations constantly, but amazingly, a historical stock valuation (P/E ratio) chart is forbidden, a chart that dare not be shown. I haven't updated the following chart since 2015, but it shows the situation: The blue line shows the historic average, around 13.9. The P/E ratio has been above the historic average, sometimes way above, since the 1990s. By the Law of Mean Reversion, it will have to fall an equivalent amount below the historic average to maintain the long-term average. It fell to the 5-6 range three times in the last century, in 1917, in 1949, and in 1980. That's going to happen again with absolute certainty, and that means that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall below 3000, from its current level of 26000. This would have happened starting with the financial crisis in 2008, if it hadn't been for something that I certainly didn't anticipate. The Federal Reserve joined with other central banks around the world, including the UK, the EU and China, to flood the banking system with printed money by means of quantitative easing and near-zero or even negative interest rates of government bonds. This tsunami of printed money has been made available to banks, hedge funds, and high-end investors, though rarely to ordinary people. It's permitted high-end investors to sell stocks back and forth between each other, creating a Ponzi scheme that's been artificially boosting stock prices. Stock prices now are far into bubble territory, and bear no relation to the actual value of the underlying business, as they used to do before the 1990s bubble. The current value of the S&P 500 Price Earnings ratio, as of Friday, March 1, is 20.77, far above the historical average of 13.9. http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html The second chart that dare not be shown is the Velocity of Money. Long-time readers will recall that I first started writing about inflation in 2003. Almost everyone was predicting inflation or even hyperinflation. I said that inflation was impossible because we were entering a period of deflation, like the 1930s. I got into one argument after another with people, especially in this forum. This was particularly true after quantitative easing began in 2009. People would say that all this money is being printed, so there would have to be inflation. That's wrong. Inflation depends on two factors -- the amount of money in the economy and the velocity of money. If the Fed prints money and it sits in a bank, then it won't contribute to inflation. In order to be inflationary, it has to be used to purchase things or to hire people and pay them salaries. Velocity of money represents how much money is actually being used, rather than just sitting in bank accounts. The following chart hasn't been updated since 2017, but it shows the situation: The velocity of money has been falling almost steadily since the late 1990s, and has come to almost its lowest point in history. If you want to play around with this chart on the St. Louis Fed web site, then use this URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?category_id=&graph_id=366117 You'll see that the velocity of money began to level off in Q3 2017. This possibly reflects a greater public willingness to spend money as a result of the Trump tax cut. However, there is some data that the public spending rate has slowed in December, and so the Velocity of Money may be starting to fall again. Both of these charts are economics 1.01, and yet of all the thousands of different charts that are shown every day, these are never shown, because they disprove the common narrative. What I don't know is how many of the "experts" know that what they're saying is crap, versus how many of them actually believe that the crap they're saying is true. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 4-Mar-2019 Tesla's SpaceX Dragon spacecraft docks with International Space Station The Dragon spacecraft, developed by Tesla's SpaceX, docked autonomously with the International Space Station. Believe it or not, there was no crew on Dragon, except for a mechanized dummy called Ripley. NASA retired the space shuttle program in 2011, and since then America has had no way to send astronauts to the ISS, and had to pay Russia to do it for Nasa. So the Dragon is the first American spacecraft since 2011 able to carry passengers to and from the ISS, once all the testing is completed. What I'd like to focus on is the choice of the name "Dragon" for the spacecraft. Elon Musk said it was named after Puff the Magic Dragon: Quote:> Was originally called Puff the Magic Dragon, as people said I was However, whether intentional or not, the choice of the name "Dragon" could be an attempt to show up China, to say that "we're far ahead of you." The Dragon is an integral part of Chinese history and Chinese chauvinism. In November, 2017, China's president Xi Jinping explained to Donald Trump, how a "Chinese person" should be defined: a Chinese person, according to Xi, is someone who is a "descendant of the dragon with black hair and yellow skin." The phrase is part of a hit song in China in the 1980s: Quote:> Descendants of the Dragon This became a popular song in China in the 1980s, almost 100 years after the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95, in which China was deeply humiliated, and is looking for revenge today. So, whether he intended to or not, Elon Musk is using the spacecraft name Dragon to tell the Chinese "We're a better dragon than you are." ---- Sources: --- Astronauts Welcome SpaceX's Crew Dragon to Space Station (Ripley and Earth, Too!) https://www.space.com/astronauts-welcome-spacex-crew-dragon-to-station.html (Space.com) --- SpaceX’s Crew Dragon flawlessly docks with space station in spectacular orbital debut https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-dragon-space-station-arrival/ (Teslarati) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 4-Mar-2010 High drama: Juan Guaidó returns to Caracas, Venezuela If you can get to a tv showing the BBC World News, the would-be president Juan Guaidó has just arrived in Caracas, amidst huge crowds, from a visit to Colombia. It's high drama. Guaidó is returning in defiance of Nicolás Maduro, who had forbidden Guaidó from leaving the country. Thus, Guaidó could now be arrested. What will Maduro do? Enquiring minds want to know. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 5-Mar-2019 Possible scenarios for WW III Navigator Wrote:> This is a rough response ... Burner Prime Wrote:> I don't dispute anything you wrote ... I've taken your conversation, added some other stuff, to create a chapter in my book on possible scenarios for WW III. Note, Navigator, that I included a link to your blog -- I can remove that if you want. The following are excerpts. I may leave these as is, or rewrite these excerpts as a narrative. Let me know your thoughts. When thousands of Chinese fled through Hong Kong to Formosa in 1949, they were in the Hokkein (Hakka) ethnic group. I wanted to know how the Hakka people in Taiwan would react to a Chinese invasion. A man living in Taiwan with a Hakka wife wrote the following to me: Quote:> "My wife loves China and seems to be completely blind ... For those reasons, many people believe that America would win a war with China. Of course China would launch thousands of nuclear missiles targeting American aircraft carriers, bases and cities, but in the end there would be a ground war that China would lose. In the Generational Dynamics forum, "Burner Prime" wrote: Quote:> "Despite the loss of life and treasure, the US has However, "Navigator," a retired American Army Colonel 30 years experience as an Army Officer, and with and my secondary career as a military simulation creator/publisher, and blogs at http://www.comingstorms.com, posted a response: Quote:> "While our individual Soldiers are brave and Burner Prime answered: Quote:> "I don't dispute anything you wrote. I have watched Navigator replied: Quote:> "The Gulf War was completely one sided because the The preparedness of America's military is widely debated today, particularly after the government budget sequestration in the early 2010s decade. The above exchange gives a flavor of the debate. **** China's military strategy Navigator also provided his thoughts on the details of how a war with China would proceed: Quote:> "I believe that ground wise the Chinese have 3 That's how the war might proceed on the ground. Here are the issues for the war on the sea and in the air: Quote:> "All wars are decided primarily on land. Even in the RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-05-2019 ** 5-Mar-2019 Analysis of China's military A lengthy analysis by CNN of China's military says that China is rapidly building up its armed forces to fight and win wars, but that its navy and air force are designed mainly to fight wars with countries in its neighborhood -- which is consistent with my own analysis. The following are excerpts from the article. https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/asia/china-military-xi-jinping-intl/index.html China's military is going from strength to strength under Xi Jinping Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, a revolution has been taking place inside Beijing's armed forces. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has grown and modernized rapidly since China reopened to the world in the 1980s, but under Xi that pace has accelerated with a focus on [1]fighting and winning future wars. Xi has also embarked on a massive internal reorganization of the PLA, streamlining the organization and bringing it firmly under his control. Between 2016 and 2017, [7]32 new ships were commissioned by the PLA, according to US government reports. In comparison, the US commissioned 13. Since 2014, China has launched more submarines, warships, principal amphibious vessels and auxiliaries than the total number of ships currently serving in the navies of Germany, India, Spain, Taiwan and the United Kingdom, according to [8]a 2018 report by think tank IISS. "China's navy is receiving warships so quickly that Chinese sources liken this to dumping dumplings into soup broth," Erickson said. The Chinese air force has also been regularly debuting new and improved planes and weapons, including the twin-engine J-20 stealth fighter. Beijing's air force is now the largest in Asia and the third largest in the world, according to the US Defense Department, and is closing the gap with the US [11]"across a spectrum of capabilities." While the military strengths of the US and China are often compared, the two governments ostensibly have built their armed forces to serve different goals. Washington says it aims to maintain a worldwide reach for its military to protect allies and American interests internationally. Beijing claims its interests lie closer to home. The major scenarios that China's military cares about could be called "home games, rather than away games," Erickson said. The Chinese government has built a navy and armed forces designed to protect the country and exert its influence in the surrounding region, especially the East and South China seas. The proof is in the military hardware that the two countries have focused on. While the US has a huge fleet of 12 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, China has barely one conventionally powered carrier operating, with another in the wings. The Type 001A, the country's first homegrown aircraft carrier, was launched in 2018 but still has not joined the fleet. While the US has a huge fleet of 12 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, China has barely one conventionally powered carrier operating, with another in the wings. The Type 001A, the country's first homegrown aircraft carrier, was launched in 2018 but still has not joined the fleet. Beijing has, however, rapidly produced Jiangdao-class corvettes, a small warship generally best suited to fighting close to home. China has undoubtedly made rapid progress. Some experts, however, doubt its ability to fight as a coherent force or the experience of its troops. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 03-06-2019 That's a high-tech military with civilian leadership that believes in little but its own power. Without question, China could easily crush any nearby regime that goes wayward except India, Japan, or Russia... Good advice for Emperor Kim Jong-Un: don't fire any missiles over Chinese airspace. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-06-2019 ** 6-Mar-2019 Rebuilding of North Korea missile site may signal collapse of charm offensive New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range ballistic missiles.
The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North Korea committed to dismantle it in order to show "prove" that it was denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in exchange. The US agreed to temporarily end large military drills with South Korea, and has recently extended that to a permanent ban, after the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same time, the US demanded from North Korea a list of all nuclear and missile development sites, and a timeline to dismantle all of them. As with many issues in politics and geopolitics, there's a grinding logic that means that a problem is insoluble -- not that politicians haven't thought of a solution, but rather that no solution exists. In the case of North Korea, denuclearization will never occur. Therefore, the mutual charm offensive between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un had to collapse in disaster at some point. The logic is inescapable. So the question is not IF the charm offensive collapse will occur, but WHEN, and that time may be now. Rebuilding the missile test site is a clear statement that even the symbolic gestures that have characterized the charm offensive will come to an end. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton warned North Korea it must be willing to completely give up its nuclear weapons program or perhaps face even tougher sanctions. Quote: If they’re not willing to do it, President Trump has been very In December, the US announced new sanctions against three senior North Korean officials for for human rights abuses and censorship in the country. The new sanctions were in honor of the Otto Warmbier, the 22-year-old American college student who died after being released from North Korean custody in June 2017. Besides South Korea, the Japanese should be very concerned about further development of nuclear weapons, since Japan more than the US is the intended target. It's hard to see what Donald "Art of the Deal" Trump is going to do next. As I've written many times, Trump's foreign policy completely baffles the media but makes perfect sense when you understand that he believes the Generational Dynamics prediction that we're headed for war with China. North Korea's goal for the charm offensive was to trick Trump into agreeing to lift the sanctions without any actual denuclearization. Trump's goal for the charm offensive was to try to prevent or postpone the coming war. So it will be fascinating to see what Trump does next. And I've said many times that I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent WW III, even if WW III is 100% certain, no matter what Trump does. --- Sources: ** North Korea rebuilding missile launch facility, satellite photos show https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/satellite-photos-show-north-korea-rebuilding-missile-launch/story?id=61491867 (ABC News) ** Bolton Warns North Korea of More Sanctions If It Doesn't Budge https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/bolton-warns-north-korea-of-more-sanctions-if-it-doesn-t-budge (Bloomberg) --- Related: *** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44322#p44322 ** 17-Dec-18 World View -- North Korea threatens US with 'exchanges of fire' over new human rights sanctions ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181217.htm#e181217 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 03-06-2019 How about an alternative goal-North Korea agrees not to deploy long range missiles? (That is, missles that can hit the USA). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-06-2019 (03-06-2019, 08:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > That's a high-tech military with civilian leadership that believes There's no way that North Korea will ever attack China. However, they would readily join with China for a joint attack on South Korea. (03-06-2019, 11:37 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > How about an alternative goal-North Korea agrees not to deploy I've been pretty deeply researching China, Korea and Japan for my book, and I've definitely reached some conclusions: China really has no desire for war against America. However, China has a vitriolic hatred for Japan, and is thirsting for war against Japan. But they know that war with Japan means war with America, so they're preparing for war with America. North Korea is aligned with China on this issue. Theoretically, North Korea might agree not to deploy long-range ballistic missiles, but they can't just say "We only wanna hit Japan and South Korea, not the US," since Japan has a mutual defense treaty with the US, and so an attack on Japan would lead to war with the US. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-07-2019 Guest Wrote:> Also, have you heard that China blew up an ancient Buddha statue a
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3650363 The only God that the Chinese permit is Xi Jinping. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-07-2019 ** 7-Mar-2019 China's Xi Jinping raises concerns over multiple anniversaries China's president Xi Jinping said this on Tuesday: Quote:> "This year is the 70th anniversary of the founding of new China. Xi Jinping has been issuing one warning after another this year. In January he warned: Quote:> "Be on high alert to all kinds of erroneous thoughts, vague At other times, Xi Jinping has repeatedly demanded "loyalty" to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Anyone can be condemned or thrown in jail for not being loyal, or for having "erroneous thoughts." Xi referred to the 70th aniversary of the founding of Communist China, but this is only one of the anniversaries occurring in 2019 that are concerning him. Here are some of the major anniversaries coming up this year:
So when China warns about "errorneous thoughts," he's referring to thoughts about the 1919 May 4th Movement, the 1959 Tibentan slaughter, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. The CCP is the most paranoid government in the world, and it's leading to the stupidest policies in the history of the world. The CCP is committing genocide and ethnic of Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xijiang Province), blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian churches, and slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province. The idiots in the CCP think that this will protect them from the unwashed masses. By the way, the CCP are promising Taiwan that it will be permitted to govern itself if reunifies with China. That's the same laughable promise they made to Tibet and Hong Kong. --- Sources: -- In sensitive year for China, warnings against 'erroneous thoughts' https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-politics/in-sensitive-year-for-china-warnings-against-erroneous-thoughts-idUSKCN1QO0X0 (Reuters) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 03-07-2019 Xi is a typical autocrat. He's pulling every string he can to make his rule both permanent and unencumbered. He also has illusions (perhaps even delusions) of grandeur, and that may be more problematic than anything else. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-08-2019 ** 8-Mar-2019 Shocking China export figures may signal global recession Analysts are describing China's February import-export figures as "shocking," and possibly a signal of a global recession. February exports fell 20.7% from a year earlier, far worse than the expected 4.8% drop. China still had a trade surplus, as usual, but it was $4.12 billion, much smaller than the forcasted $26.38 billion. China’s data on Friday showed its surplus with the United States narrowed to $14.72 billion in February from $27.3 billion in January, and it has promised to buy more U.S. goods such as agricultural products as part of the trade discussions. Many people are blaming China's weak trade figures on the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in conjunction with the trade talks.
A lot of people, including the Chinese themselves, believe that a government-controlled economy will never have a recession because the government can print money or issue regulations to prevent it. Actually, the opposite is true. Government-controlled economies are always a disaster, because the businesses being controlled have no incentive to develop new products, or to cut bloated bureacracies, or to end unprofitable businesses, since the government always bails them out. The result is that a government-controlled economy crashes harder and faster than a free market economy. That's what's happening in China. The CCP spent barrels of money, but has only created bloated bureacracies, zombie companies and ghost cities. As I wrote recently, except for financial services companies, there are no profitable companies in China except for one: Huawei. And Huawei is under attack internationally because it's more and more widely understood that Huawei devices and chips have backdoors that can be controlled by China's military. The Chinese economy accounts for almost a third of global growth, which is why many economists are predicting a global recession. A Chinese recession will certainly cause more public protests, as there are already hundreds of thousands of "mass events" each year. China has had massive rebellions throughout its history, the last two of which were Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) or the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64). China is overdue for its next massive rebellion, and the CCP criminals are aware of that, which is why they've built concentration camps and crematoria for a million Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang province), they're blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian churches, slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province, and demanding that the new Yellow Emperor, Xi Jinping, be the only person who may be worshipped as God. ------ Sources: --- China February exports tumble the most in three years, spur fears of 'trade recession' https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/china-february-exports-tumble-the-most-in-three-years-spur-fears-of-trade-recession-idUSKCN1QP0CA (Reuters) --- China's Slowdown Is Exposing The Cracks In The Global Economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4247239-chinas-slowdown-exposing-cracks-global-economy (Seeking Alpha) --- China's exports fall more than 20% in February; overall trade data come in much weaker https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/china-february-trade-imports-exports-beijing-reports-china-economic-data.html (CNBC) --- China’s exports plunge more than 20% https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/article/chinas-exports-plunge-more-than-20/ (Asia Times) --- Chinese exports fall amid US tariffs, weak global demand https://www.apnews.com/fb6fe35a2c3442b3927fbe46fa025fd6 (AP) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 03-08-2019 (03-08-2019, 02:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 8-Mar-2019 Shocking China export figures may signal global recession For a minute, I thought you were talking about the US * Zombies A USA https://qz.com/1141732/one-in-every-10-american-companies-is-a-zombie/ * crashing birth rate. https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2018/05/23/birth-rate-drop * Defaults here and now, and upcoming! https://www.businessinsider.com/10-states-most-likely-to-default-2010-5 https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-03/no-fracking-way-debt-laden-shale-producers-may-unleash-next-financial-crisis https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/us/politics/us-trade-deficit.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/consumer-debt-hits-4-trillion.html * Non performing loans https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/subprime-auto-loan-defaults-hit-20-year-high-in-march-051618.html Hahahahahahah Private equity companies get to eat some shit here. The US doesn't isn't as bad wrt total debt level 'cause we can do CTRL-P with our reserve currency. However as a saver, I want the FED to go to hell for fucking up my interest rate return with QE infinity. And... Der Trumpfenfurfur's tax cuts for the rich have resulted in record deficits for a nice cherry on top. How about the US's falling lifespan? https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/1/9/16860994/life-expectancy-us-income-inequality Does China have an inequality problem like the US? Is China a literal shithole country like the US? ttps://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/san-francisco-named-poop-capital-of-us/1510436442 https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/584380/ RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-09-2019 ** 9-Mar-2019 South Korea's 3-layer missile defense system North Korea's "charm offensive" seems clearly over. The news this morning is that satellite images of increased activity around the Sanumdong missile assembly site suggest that North Korea is preparing to launch a missile or satellite. This follows reports last week that the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range ballistic missiles, is being rebuilt. The failed Hanoi summit may have been the last straw for Kim. He may have decided that if he can't use a "charm offensive" to trick the Americans to agree to remove the sanctions with nothing in return -- using the same kinds of tricks that always worked for his father -- he may as well resume testing. As far as I can tell from correspondence with people in this forum and through e-mail, almost no South Koreans still believe in a "peaceful reunification," and they're expecting the worst. Even the left-wing president Moon Jae-in approved a huge weapons development budget increase in January. South Korea has for decades been exposed to North Korea’s large and diverse arsenal of tactical and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. So I've been doing some research on South Korea's ballistic missile defenses. The most controversial component of South Korea's missile defense system is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by the United States military. THAAD is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles on their terminal trajectory as they plunge down to their targets. The Chinese were and are furious over the installation of The THAAD system -- not because it protects South Korea from North Korean missiles, but because it includes "over the horizon" radar that would provide early warning to the American military of a missile attack from China. Nonetheless, even Moon Jae-in, having initially refused further THAAD deployments, finally approved them after North Korea's spectacular ballistic missile tests in 2017. However, the THAAD system is deployed too far south to protect Seoul, and anyway it can't protect against low-altitude missiles that the North would use on Seoul. THAAD can protect urban areas in the southern part of South Korea, and could also defend US troops landing and disembarking from the port of Busan in the southeast. This brings us back to the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range surface-to-air missile system and its new PIP missile interceptor, manufactured by LIG Nex1 and other South Korean firms. THAAD can protect the south, while KM-SAM can protect Seoul in the north. There's actually a 3-layer ballistic missile defense system, consisting of THAAD, KM-SAM, and also Patriot anti-missile defense systems. There's also additional support from an Aegis anti-missile system when an equipped US warship is in the area. THAAD and KM-SAM work together to create an anti-missile defense network. While THAAD defends against high-altitude ballistic missiles, KM-SAM can defend against low-altitude aircraft and missile attacks. The American-made Patriot anti-missile systems also provide a tactical layer of defense. That's the plan, anyway, but as we know, no plan survives the first battle. There's no way to test this three-level system except with computer modeling. When barrages of North Korean missiles start flying over the DMZ, then we'll finally know how well all of this worked. --- Sources: -- North Korea 'preparing rocket launch', images suggest ::wla https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47504723 (BBC) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-10-2019 (03-08-2019, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Is China a literal shithole country like the US? Two things. First, I've been saying for years that the US economy is heading for disaster, as public debt is increasing exponentially (except during the sequestration), and the stock market is in a major bubble.
** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e150202.htm#e150202 The second thing that I've said is that as bad as the US economy is, China's economy is much worse. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-11-2019 ** 11-Mar-2019 Steve Bannon in Japan: China's motives I really dont care Wrote:> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/03/08/national/politics-diplomacy/ex-adviser-steve-bannon-confident-donald-trump-win-2020-despite-probes/#.XIJ-PckzZdh Thanks for pointing this out. I wrote to Steve Bannon about this. Here is the exchange: John Wrote:> Someone pointed me towards the Japan Times article describing your Steve Bannon Wrote:> They want that also but trust me they want hegemonic dominance John Wrote:> Sure, but that's delusional, and they know it. In fact, they may RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 03-12-2019 (03-10-2019, 10:22 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(03-08-2019, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Is China a literal shithole country like the US? Now, I agree that China's and the US economies are debt laden fat pigs on their way to the slaughter house. * Pig award for US and China However, AFAIK, I haven't seen any info on disease resurgences from filth or crazy antifvaccers in China. I also know of no literal Chinese shitholes ? like right here in the USA.? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-12-2019 (03-12-2019, 12:14 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > However, AFAIK, I haven't seen any info on disease resurgences Well, I'm always suspicious of comparisons of the United States to another country where the press is tightly controlled, and where reporting bad news can get you thrown into a pit, hung by your ankles, and have your fingernails pulled out with pliers. Is there anything as bad as the San Francisco shithole in China? Nothing that's been reported, of course. But Beijing is still choking with smog. Also, check out the following story: ** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180126.htm#e180126 Tens of thousands of migrants were evicted from their homes in just one month. People were given only a few hours notice before their home were demolished. Did the migrants go out and sit on the curb and start pooping? They might be allowed to do that in San Francisco, but not in Beijing. |