Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-12-2019 ** 12-Mar-2019 World View: Is China's economic boycott of South Korea thawing? China's largest insurance company, Ping An Insurance, announced that it will send 3,700 employees to South Korea as an incentive trip. The employees will be arriving in groups of 50 over the next two months. Why is this big news? It's news because such trips have been banned by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since March 2017, when the CCP announced an extremely harsh boycott on Korea, in retaliation for the Korean government's deployment of America's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). The CCP boycott banned South Korean goods for sale in China, South Korean pop stars and entertainers, and packaged tours, cruise tours and charter flights to Korea. So the Ping An Insurance incentive trip to South Korea is a clear violation of the boycott, which means that the CCP must be lifting some parts of the boycott. I'm going to guess that this is happening because of pressure by Ping An employees who would not consider an "incentive trip" to another Chinese city to be a particularly exciting and motivating prospect. In fact, the CCP has already lifted the ban on tour packages for some cities. In October last year, 600 employees from Chinese cosmetics brand Anya Cosmetics came to Korea on a corporate incentive tour. Ping An's incentive trip includes stops at duty-free shops of Korea’s second and third largest duty-free retailers, Shinsegae Duty Free and Shilla Duty Free. However, noticeably absent from Ping An's itinerary were visits to retail shops for the largest, Lotte Duty Free, a subsidiary of South Korea's multinational conglomerate Lotte Group. In 2017, Lotte agreed to a land swap that allowed THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the company. This enraged the Chinese government so much that Lotte is not likely to be forgiven any time soon, even if other parts of the boycott are lifted. Historically, for many centuries, Korea was part of China's "tributary system." Korea was not a colony of China, since it is not governed by China. But Korea would pay a substantial tribute to China, often consisting of gold or slaves. In return, China would guarantee not to invade Korea, and would even promise to defend Korea from a foreign enemy (usually Japan). Korea remained a tributary state until Japan succeeded in colonizing Korea in 1912. Although China did not govern or control Korea, it was required that when China ordered Korea to do something, Korea would have to do it, or risk being punished. In the case of North Korea, president Kim Jong-un continued ballistic missile and nuclear weapons tests, despite commands from China's president Xi Jinping to stop them. As a result, China punished North Korea by allowing the United Nations Security Council to adopt harsh anti-North Korean sanctions. In the case of South Korea, China ordered the government NOT to allow the deployment of the American anti-missile system THAAD. South Korea deployed the systems anyway, in reaction to the ballistic missile and nuclear weapons tests by North Korea -- tests that ironically China had tried to prevent. So the Chinese punished South Korea's disobedience with the harsh boycott. Now that time has passed, China has been reducing the punishments. In the case of North Korea, China has been urging lifting the sanctions, and has been supporting and accommodating large-scale cheating by the North Koreans, particularly to import petroleum and export coal. In the case of South Korea, we see limited lifting of the boycott, presumably in response to demands by Chinese company employees, with most of the boycott remaining in effect. However, easing of the boycott is coming too late for many South Korean companies. Lotte's supermarket business Lotte Mart will soon exit North China's Tianjin Municipality, leaving only three stores in the Chinese mainland. South Korean auto makers Kia Motors and its parent Hyundai Motor have both announced that they are considering halting operations in some of their plants in China. Kia's sales in China fell 44% in 2017 following the CCP boycott of South Korean products. Sales recovered only 9% in 2018. Hyundai was once China's third-biggest auto brand. Hyundai has the capacity to produce more than 1.6 million vehicles in China, but only sold 820,000 in 2017. Hyundai and Kia are being affected not only by the boycott, but also by generally declining auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market. Sales of new vehicles declined in 2018 for the first time in almost 30 years, amid falling consumption and a growing second-hand sector. --- Sources: -- China’s Ping An Insurance to send 3,700 employees to Korea on incentive trip https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2019&no=148650 (Pulse News, Korea) -- Korea / Hyundai Motor / Kia considers plant closures in China https://www.just-auto.com/news/kia-considers-plant-closures-in-china_id187626.aspx (Just Auto) -- KIA considering China production halt amid sales slowdown http://www.china.org.cn/business/2019-03/11/content_74557526.htm (Xinhua, China) -- Kia, Lotte failures reflect S.Korean firms' ignorance of Chinese market: analyst http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1141723.shtml (Global Times, China) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 03-12-2019 (03-12-2019, 06:24 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(03-12-2019, 12:14 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > However, AFAIK, I haven't seen any info on disease resurgences So, 2 peas in a pod, man. https://shadowproof.com/2017/11/15/chicagos-attack-homeless-tent-city-evictions-people-hiding/ In any event, here is what I want. The US needs to STFU about "human rights", "exceptional nation", and "rules based order", etc. Also, as for the Chinese migrants, perhaps they wade into some water body and shit incognito , because as we all know, when you have to go, you have to go. So let's all accept the fact that humans are such tacky, tacky creatures no matter where they live and all of our shit stinks all the same. Even flies know this fact is true. All I want is acceptance of this reality that the US is no worse and no better than anyone else because anything else is just like polishing a turd. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-13-2019 (03-12-2019, 10:02 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > All I want is acceptance of this reality that the US is no worse This is a pile of crap. It's like saying that a rapist-murderer-pedophile is the same as an ordinary person because they both have parking tickets. The CCP is the most paranoid government in the world, and it's leading to the stupidest policies in the history of the world. The CCP is committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang Province), blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian churches, and slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province. If San Francisco and Chicago are shitholes, it's because of lack of action, but China is a shithole because of atrocities committed as actual policies of the Chinese Communist Party. By coincidence, someone posted the following this morning in the Generational Dynamics forum: Quote:> Middle and upper class Chinese do not buy Chinese products. No This reminds me of what we used to say to people years ago: If you hate America so much, why don't you leave? Some suggested destinations: The Socialist Paradise of China, the Socialist Paradise of North Korea, the Socialist Paradise of Cuba, or the Socialist Paradise of Venezuela. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-13-2019 ** 13-Mar-2019 Russia-China relations run into problems again Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing an "honor among thieves" relationship with China's Xi Jinping for several years, as they support each other's illegal activities with vetoes in the UN Security Council. Furthermore, under pressure from European sanctions, Putin is anxious to showcase his relationship with Xi as a counterweight. However, China does much to show its disdain for the Russians. China is posing a threat to Russia's Far East, and Russia has been shut out of infrastructure projects in countries that are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the last month a new division has opened up. China's embassy in Moscow sent a message to a Russian journalist who had written articles analyzing the slowdown in China's economy, and its consequences for Russia. The articles had been posted on the web site for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG), and in the message, the embassy ordered the journalist to remove the articles from the website. The embassy message rebuked the growing discontent in Russian society, which Putin has allegedly failed to quell. The message threatened to blacklist the journalist and prevent him from visiting China. Although NG is not an official Russian government publication, it's presumably aligned with Russian policy, and its response presumably had the permission of the Russian government. In response, NG published an editorial: Quote: "In Russia, many consider the current cooperation with The editorial went on to accuse the Chinese embassy of violating Russian laws. This is a "small incident," and may pass quickly. But maybe not. NG has published additional articles on China's economy, and now that it's been threatened, it may publish more. China, on the other hand, becomes furious when one of its tributary states does not obey orders, so the Chinese may escalate the punishment. Ultimately, this is not about a confrontation between a reporter and the Chinese embassy. It's about the relationship between Putin and Xi. Putin has been sucking up the Xi, and may do so again by ordering NG to back off. Or may Putin would like to show that he's able to stand up to China, and will allow the confrontation to continue. The Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact, Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as the 1960s. China and Russia developed a close relationship in the 1920s. After Germany lost World War I, China demanded that Western nations, especially Germany, relinquish all Chinese territories they had gained under "unequal treaties," and in fact demanded that the unequal treaties be annulled. Instead, under the "Versailles betrayal" at the Paris peace conference that settled World War I, Japan received control of some of the German territories (Shandong province) under the "fine print" of the unequal treaties. Neither China nor the United States signed the Versailles agreement, and the US helped China take Shandong province back from Japan two years later. However, what was most significant to the Chinese was that in March 1919, while negotiations were still ongoing, Soviet Russia renounced Russian rights and privileges to all the capitulations that had been awarded to countries from China. This created a very favorable attitude among the Chinese people towards the new Soviet State. Furthermore, Chinese intellectuals began to see communism as a weapon -- a weapon to combat militarism and imperialism of the West. The Third Communist International (The Comintern) was formed by Russia in March 1919 in order to control all communist parties around the world, and did so until Stalin dissolved in in May 1943, and transferred its activities to other organizations. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was formed in 1921, and became a member of the Moscow Comintern. In the decades that followed, tensions grew in China between the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communists, led by Mao Zedong. When the Communists won the civil war and announced the Communist People's Republic of China in 1949, it was the beginning of a "golden age" of friendship between China and Soviet Russia. The golden age didn't last long. The Amur River that forms part of the border between China and Russia's Far East has been the site of wars between the two people for centuries. On March 2, 1969, border units of the Soviet Union and China clashed on Damansky Island, in the middle of the Amur River. Militarily, the Damansky Incident was a small operation, but symbolically and politically it's been extremely important. The fighting generated worldwide concern, over fears that China and Russia would escalate the fight into nuclear war. The United States sided with China in the clash, causing China to have much more favorable relations with the US. In fact, this incident is thought to be the trigger that led to President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger successfully developing diplomatic relations with China in 1971. The biggest shock to China-Russia relations occurred in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, along with the Russian Communist Party. Since the CCP had modeled itself after the Russian party, this was a blow that sent the CCP officials into total panic, and has led to the paranoia and the destructive and self-destructive policies of the CCP being practiced today. This is the context in which the clash between Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG) and China's Moscow embassy is occurring. Whether this clash escalates depends on how much Putin and Xi wish to continue pretending that they like each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that, in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the US, Japan, India, Russia, Iran and the West will be pitted against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. --- Sources: -- 'Serious' rivalry still drives China-Russia relations despite improving ties https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/14/china-russia-ties--more-rivalry-than-allaince.html (CNBC, 14-Sep-2018) -- Hidden Animus in the Russia-China Friendship https://jamestown.org/program/hidden-animus-in-the-russia-china-friendship/ (Jamestown) -- Russia / Chinese diplomat threatens NG journalist with blacklisting http://www.ng.ru/world/2019-03-04/2_7523_china.html https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ng.ru%2Fworld%2F2019-03-04%2F2_7523_china.html (Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG), and translation) -- China is preparing for hard times http://www.ng.ru/economics/2019-03-05/1_7524_china.html https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ng.ru%2Feconomics%2F2019-03-05%2F1_7524_china.html (Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG), and translation) --- Related: ** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181023.htm#e181023 ** 21-Jul-18 World View -- The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180721.htm#e180721 ** 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180331.htm#e180331 ** 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect and attack America ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170127.htm#e170127 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-15-2019 ** 15-Mar-2019 North Korea threatens to end denuclearization talks North Korea's foreign minister Choe Son Hui threatened to suspend denuclearization talks. According to Choe, as quoted by Tass and AP: Quote:> We have no intention to yield to the U.S. demands (at Talk about a mixed message! Choe added that Kim would make an official announcement soon, and that he might announce the resumption oftests of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. This is all theatre. North Korea never had any intention of ending its nuclear missile program. The North's only reason for the negotiations was to apply diplomatic pressure to force America to agree to remove the sanctions, without the North having to make any concessions whatsoever. That strategy collapsed when Donald Trump walked out of the Hanoi summit. Kim Jong-un tried to replay the same fraudulent script that his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded and humiliated the United States and the world. So now that Kim has failed to repeat his father's success, it's the child dictator who is humiliated. He may feel that he has to strike back to regain stature, and that might mean resumption of testing. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo responded to Choe's statements: Quote:> "It’s not the first time. I have a vague recollection One thing that's become increasingly clear in the last year is that China does not want North Korea to resume these tests. Thanks to the North Korea tests, South Korea has deployed a THAAD missile defense system that China absolutely hates. What China wants is for America to withdraw forces from the region, but North Korea's tests cause the opposite. They also provide support to Japan's hawks to implement its own nuclear weapons. --- Sources: -- North Korea may suspend nuclear talks with 'gangster-like' U.S.: diplomat https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/north-korea-may-suspend-nuclear-talks-with-gangster-like-u-s-diplomat-idUSKCN1QW0C9 (Reuters) -- Pompeo shoots down North Korea claim he created distrust, hostility at summit https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/434207-pompeo-shoots-down-north-korea-claim-he-created-distrust-hostility (The Hill) --- Related: *** 9-Mar-2019 South Korea's 3-layer missile defense system http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44574#p44574 *** 12-Mar-2019 World View: Is China's economic boycott of South Korea thawing? http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44501#p44501 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2019 ** 22-Mar-2019 Finland investigates data breach in Nokia-7 phones josa0512 Wrote:> Here's evidence that supports your theory of Chinese electronics Thanks for posting this. If it's confirmed that this is a legtimate case of data theft by China, it will be significant. However, I can't figure out from the articles what's going on. It says that Finland is investigating a data breach where Nokia-7 phones are sending user data back to China, but it doesn't really explain how. It might be a software bug, or it might be an illegal "backdoor." It will be interesting to see what further investigation reveals. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2019 ** 22-Mar-2019 Italy joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Alarms are being raised in the US and other Western countries over a visit to Italy on Thursday by China's president Xi Jinping, and an agreement to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) about a deal to make Italy the first major democracy to join China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. The MoU is not an agreement, but is just a compendium of reassuring phrases like "friendship" and "mutual economic benefit." Full details of the planned infrastructure project have not been released, but it reportedly includes collaboration and investments in the northern Italian ports of Genoa and Trieste as well as roads, railways, airports and telecommunications. Italy is desperate for money, so this seems like the perfect solution. But concerns are being raised for two reasons. First, China could set a debt trap and gain ownership of Italy's ports. The Chinese already own Greece's port of Piraeus, which the China shipping company Cosco acquired in 2016. Second, any servers or networks installed by the Chinese are going to be subject to Chinese law which requires Huawei and other Chinese companies to cooperate with the military in stealing intelligence from other countries, even when doing so would be illegal. Furthermore, it's widely understood that Huawei has almost certainly installed undetectable "backdoors" in all its devices, from smartphones to routers, since it's very easy to do so, and China's military can use those backdoors to steal data or control the devices from Beijing. China has been subsidizing Huawei in order to gain international market share, and any Huawei device or network with backdoors can be shut down or controlled at a time of the Chinese military's choosing. So if Italy's infrastructure deal with China included a 5G network, then that network would be under the control of China's military, and could affect the security of interconnected networks throughout Europe. Article 7 of China's National Intelligence Law says: Quote:> "All organizations and citizens shall, in accordance with the law, It was revealed last year that, from January 2012 to January 2017, China was continually hacking African Union servers in Addis Ababa that Huawei had deployed. Every night, from midnight to 2 am for five years, servers in Shanghai were hacking the African Union servers and stealing data. It went further -- after the data theft was discovered, a sweep for bugs revealed microphones hidden in desks and walls. The visit by Xi Jinping has split Italy's ruling coalition. The far-right Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini is opposed, while coalition partner Luigi Di Maio is a supporter. In 2012, eleven EU member states and five Balkan countries signed an MoU with China on investment, transport, finance, science, education, and culture. In 2018, Greece and Portugal signed similar MoUs, as China had already made major investments in both countries. But Italy is considered a far greater risk because Italy is a member of the G7 group of countries, and because Italy’s economy is larger than that of all the other EU countries combined that signed the MoU with China. The potential impact on trade and investment to and from China is, therefore, much more significant. ----- Sources: -- China's new Silk Road gets bumpy as Xi visits Italy https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-s-new-silk-road-gets-bumpy-as-xi-visits-italy-11368812 (AFP, 22-Mar-2019) -- Italy-China Memorandum of understanding https://www.corriere.it/economia/19_marzo_12/via-seta-testo-dell-intesa-l-italia-cina-versione-inglese-traduzione-italiano-9ea09020-44c2-11e9-b3b0-2162e8762643.shtml (Corriere.it, 19-Mar-2019) -- China’s Xi visits Italy with infrastructure deal as prize https://www.pressherald.com/2019/03/21/chinas-xi-visits-italy-with-silk-and-road-deal-as-prize/ (AP) -- Italy’s Embrace of China’s Belt and Road Initiative Comes With Risks and Opportunity https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/italy-s-embrace-of-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-comes-with-risks-and-opportunity (Atlantic Council, 20-Mar-2019) -- The African Union headquarters hack and Australia’s 5G network https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-african-union-headquarters-hack-and-australias-5g-network/ (ASPI, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 13-Jul-2018) -- Belt and Road Initiative / G7 / Italy’s Risky China Gamble https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/italys-risky-china-gamble/ (Diplomat, 14-Mar-2019) -- Interview: Xi's upcoming visit to boost China-Italy cooperation under BRI, says Italian PM http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/22/c_137913695.htm (Xinhua, 22-Mar-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2019 ** 22-Mar-2019 North Korea withdraws from liaison office with South Korea North Korea has withdrawn its personnel from the inter-Korean joint liaison office at the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC), a joint manufacturing facility that was already closed. The office was set up last year during the charm offensive so that officials from North and South Korea could meet to discuss possible reunification. The announcement comes weeks after the failed Hanoi summit, and a day after the US imposed sanctions on two Chinese shipping companies helping North Korea to evade sanctions. The North said it will not care about whether South Korean officials remain or withdraw from the office. If you're good at reading tea leaves, then you can make of that as you want. --- Sources: -- North Korea withdraws staff from inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong: MOU No reason given for the move, vice unification minister says https://www.nknews.org/2019/03/north-korea-withdraws-staff-from-inter-korean-liaison-office-in-kaesong-mou/ (North Korea News) -- N. Korea withdraws from inter-Korean liaison office https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190322010753325?section=news (Yonhap, South Korea) -- US imposes sanctions on Chinese companies for helping North Korea https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/03/imposes-north-korea-sanctions-chinese-companies-190322060617493.html (Al-Jazeera, 21-Mar-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2019 ** 22-Mar-2019 Trump cancels new North Korea sanctions President Donald Trump startled everyone again this afternoon with a new tweet: Quote:> @realDonaldTrump It was announced today by the U.S. Treasury that The BBC says that everyone in Washington was caught completely by surprise. Sarah Sanders explained it as follows: "President Trump likes Chairman Kim and he doesn't think these sanctions will be necessary." --- Sources: -- Trump will remove new North Korea-related sanctions because he 'likes' Kim Jong Un https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/trump-says-he-will-remove-north-korea-related-sanctions.html (CNBC) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-24-2019 ** 24-Mar-2019 Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, 1958-60 As I continue working on my book on China and Japan, which is now "very close" to completion, and will be done "soon, very soon," I though it would be interesting to post this material on Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, which is almost forgotten in the West, but which is highly relevant to China today. Mao Zedong was a very charismatic figure who apparently was able to exert almost total control of the population in the 1950s. However, Mao's time as leader cannot be described as anything short of a disaster for China and its people. Xi Jinping can whine and moan about unequal treaties, but no unequal treaties did any harm compared to the massive destruction wrought by Mao's policies. Millions of people died from execution even in the "good times" of Mao's leadership, but no period was worse than the Great Leap Forward, during which some 20 to 30 million people died of starvation in a man-made famine. It's really very hard to explain what happened in the Great Leap Forward in any rational way, because the plan was insane, as was Mao himself. Mao was crazed with determination to prove that Communism work, and the "Great Leap Forward" was devised to leap China forward ahead of the capitalist countries. Mao's plan to implement "true" communism in China began in 1958 with the Great Leap Forward. Here's a summary of how the program worked:
It's completely beyond me how anyone could ever believe that something like this could ever work, and many people in the West during the 60s and 70s idolized Mao and considered China to be a "people's paradise." It shows how ideology can turn ordinary, educated people into complete idiots. What this experience shows is what a fanatical and desperate maniac Mao was to do something so disastrous. Mao's stipulated purpose was to mobilize the entire population to transform China into a socialist powerhouse -- producing both food and industrial goods -- much faster than might otherwise be possible. This would be both a national triumph and an ideological triumph, proving to the world that socialism could triumph over capitalism. First, Mao dismantled the Central Statistical Bureau, the organization responsible for keeping track of all the economic activity going on in the country. As a result, China's leadership had no real idea whether the Great Leap Forward was meeting its objectives or not. This gives the sense that Mao was playing the part of a desperate gambler who had no idea what he was doing, but closed his eyes and rolled the dice. Early in 1959, and again in July 1959, officials in Mao's government had begun to see that the program was failing. Their objections were rewarded with punishment. Mao was determined to follow his ideological course, no matter what else happened. The result was disaster. The individual peasants and managers were required to report the size of the crop harvests up the line to the central government, but there was no way to guarantee that the reports were accurate. On the one hand, there was no economic incentive for the farmers and managers to provide accurate reports, since everyone in a socialist society is paid the same ("according to his need"). On the other hand, there was no independent check of the crop harvest estimates. If the population had been much smaller, then the central government might have been able to send out enough bureaucrats to check the reports, or at least do spot checks. But with over a billion peasants, no such meaningful checks were possible. For the farmers and managers themselves, there was plenty of political incentive to overreport the crop harvest results. As a result, even though actual crop yield in 1959 was a little smaller than it had been in 1958, the crop reports added up to an enormous increase in production, more than a doubling of output. By the time that Chairman Mao was finally ready to accept the situation, it was too late. There was too little food to feed everyone, and tens of millions died of starvation. *** Mao's justifications for the Great Leap Forward Mao pursued the insane Great Leap Forward with the fervor of a religious maniac, even dismantling the Central Statistical Bureau, and then ignoring bad news reports for months (and probably executing anyone who was responsible for the bad news reports). We don't know all of Mao's justifications, except for the obvious one to try to prove the superiority of Communism. But he could have tried to prove the superiority of Communism in many other ways, without this insane, disastrous plan. So even though we can't be sure what justifications Mao gave for his fanaticism, it's worthwhile to speculate on them, because it's pretty clear that Xi Jinping and today's CCP leaders are equally fanatical, and the same justifications are being used today. Mao certainly would have been aware of the Boxer rebellion 68 years earlier, which failed but had the goal of ejecting foreign traders. Now, in the 1950s, China was still dependent on foreign trade. Furthermore, China had to be saved by Woodrow Wilson and America after the Versailles betrayal, following World War I. Then China had to be saved by American-led forces to eject Japanese conquerors in China during World War II. So China was repeatedly dependent on other nations, especially Western nations, for its own physical and economic survival. This must have infuriated a fanatic like Mao, especially after he had committed mass murder and atrocities during China's civil war, and would not hesitate to do so again. We can't discuss Mao's motivations without mentioning the racist belief that Chinese were racially superior to any other race on the planet. Mao of course would have been aware of Adolf Hitler's view that German Aryans were the Master Race, and racially superior to any other race on the planet. But in comparing Hitler's racist views to the racist views of Chinese, we have to mention that Hitler's Master Race view were not very old, and were only part of the German culture for a few years or decades, and so could be forgotten easily after the war. But China's racist views go back three millennia -- to the Xia and Zhang dynasties, and to Confucius and to Sun Tzu's Art of War. So Mao, like all Chinese, was imbued with this Chinese Master Race philosophy, and with all the various stuff that goes with it, like the Yellow Emperor and the Mandate from Heaven. Next, Mao had, of course, fresh memories of the atrocities committed by the Japanese, and undoubtedly was planning China's revenge even at that time. He may even have believed that he would lose the Mandate from Heaven if he didn't quickly attack the Japanese and get revenge. And so, putting all this together, Mao's fanaticism in pursuing the Great Leap Forward was a desperate attempt to instantaneously create a huge economic windfall that he could use to create a military and attack Japan, and get revenge, and thereby keep the Mandate from Heaven. As I said, this is all somewhat speculative, but we do know that all of these motivations are quite real, and remain real today, and we also know that Mao pursued a desperate, disastrous and fanatical policy in the Great Leap Forward, and so it's reasonable to connect the dots between the two. What's remarkable is that things have not changed a bit today:
Many people believe that the Chinese want to take over the world -- to gain "hegemonic dominance" over America and the West. But that's delusional, and the Chinese know it. In fact, the Chinese may even want people to believe that, as a smokescreen, just as everything else the Chinese say is a smokescreen to mislead people. Saying that the Chinese "want hegemonic dominance" is like saying that someone "wants" to sleep with Beyoncé. We all want things in our dreams, but we know that they're just dreams. You can't look at the Chinese character in any obvious, rational manner. First of all, "hegemonic dominance" is not in the Chinese character, and not something they would even want. The Chinese can't even govern themselves, let alone govern colonies. Even Korea, which has been dominated by China for centuries, was never a colony, but only a vassal. There is only one motive driving the Chinese that will never disappear -- a vitriolic all-consuming uncontrollable hatred for the Japanese and an overwhelming and uncontrollable desire for revenge. That all-consuming hatred will not be quenched until they've gotten that revenge. Nothing else will matter, until the very last day of the war, and I suspect that the Japanese know it as well as the Chinese know it, even though they don't want to talk about it. And Xi Jinping knows that unless he achieves that revenge, he will lose the Mandate from Heaven, and he's willing to pursue any fanatical, desperate policy to achieve it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-25-2019 ** 25-Mar-2019 Ebola in eastern DRC surges, spreads to new large city After several weeks of declining numbers of new cases, new Ebola cases surged last week, as new cases are now being reported in another large city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The number of confirmed and probable cases has now passed 1,000 with over 620 deaths. This makes it the second-worst outbreak in history. A case of Ebola has been found in Bunia, the second-largest city in DRC, with a population of around one million. Ebola has already been spreading in two other large cities, Butembo and Beni, each with about one million people, as well as throughout rural areas in North Kivu and Ituri provinces. The disease is "not under control," but it still remains confined to just the two DRC provinces, and particularly has not spread across the porous border to Uganda, Rwanda or South Sudan. The Ebola outbreak is occurring in the midst of an ethnic civil war. Doctors without Borders (MSF) has been forced to suspend its activities in some areas because of the violence, including attacks by gunmen on Ebola treatment centers. The US State Dept. has banned American federal employees from working in the region, because of the violence. The World Health Organization (WHO) is asking the international community for more humanitarian aid for DRC and Ebola. However, DRC is competing for humanitarian aid in a growing number of crises in numerous other countries, including Yemen, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Niger, Chad, Haiti, Ethiopia, Madagascar, and the Philippines. ---- Sources: -- WHO reaffirms commitment to Democratic Republic of the Congo as Ebola outbreak nears 1000 cases amid increased violence https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-03-2019-who-reaffirms-commitment-to-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-as-ebola-outbreak-nears-1-000-cases-amid-increased-violence (World Health Organization, WHO, 23-Mar-2019) -- Bunia - Butembo - Beni / Ebola in DRC Spreads to Urban Areas Amid Conflict https://www.cfr.org/blog/ebola-drc-spreads-urban-areas-amid-conflict (Council on Foreign Relations, 21-Mar-2019) -- Bunia / Ebola outbreak spreads to new city in conflict-hit Congo https://www.dw.com/en/ebola-outbreak-spreads-to-new-city-in-conflict-hit-congo/a-48002118 (Deutsche-Welle, 21-Mar-2019) -- From Haiti to Madagascar: The world's forgotten crises / Haiti, Ethiopia, Madagascar, DRC, Philippines https://www.dw.com/en/from-haiti-to-madagascar-the-worlds-forgotten-crises/a-47591231 (Deutsche-Welle, 21-Feb-2019)
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 25-Mar-2019 The Generational Dynamics Diagonal Flow Diagram Alosito79 Wrote:> This thread describes Hero Generations in the world. Not just in When the Regeneracy occurs to launch a generational crisis war, all generations unite behind the leader. The "Hero generation" is like America's "Greatest Generation" -- they're the generation who are the right age to be soldiers who go off to war without complaining, in order to save the country and its way of life, which are facing an existential crisis. Once the crisis war starts, all generations are the same, in that they all put politics aside and unite behind the leader. The differentiation between archetypes occurs again after the war ends. The following diagram shows are all the generations are united during the crisis, but within two generations (by the Awakening era), all four generational archetypes can be identified.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 31-Mar-2019 World View: Secret letter from Trump to Kim shows why Hanoi summit collapsed It has emerged that on the morning of February 28, at the Hanoi summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, Trump gave Kim a letter (two versions, one in English, one in Korean) explicitly describing what Trump meant by "final, fully verifiable, denuclearization." The letter demanded the following of North Korea:
Kim and Trump had been exchanging what the media have been calling "love letters," and Kim came to the Hanoi summit expecting to charm Trump into agreeing to remove the sanctions without North Korea having to take any serious steps to denuclearization, even the simple step of providing a list of weapons and missiles sites. Kim Jong-un was trying to defraud Trump in the same way that his father Kim Jong-il had defrauded President Bush. In 2008, the North demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded and humiliated the United States and the world. There was no way that Trump would ever allow himself to be defrauded in the same way. Since Trump is the expert in the "Art of the Deal," we can only speculate what his strategy was in presenting that letter to Kim. Trump had gone along with Kim's "charm initiative" for over a year, which was characterized by ambiguities in the meaning of the term "denuclearization." Through these ambiguities, Trump had allowed Kim to become hopeful that he could defraud Trump. Trump must have decided that, at the Hanoi summit, Kim was thoroughly emotionally committed to believing he could default Trump, and that the time was right to apply the ultimate pressure to Kim. Perhaps this strategy of applying maximum pressure at exactly the right time will work, and Kim will feel he has no choice but to take some real denuclearization step. As I've written many time, I don't expect that, and there is nothing that will convince Kim to end the program of developing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Trump's strategy will not work, but as I've said in the past, I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent World War III, even if World War III is 100% certain. --- Sources: -- The day North Korea talks collapsed, Trump passed Kim a note demanding he turn over his nukes https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/30/with-a-piece-of-paper-trump-called-on-kim-to-hand-over-nuclear-weapons.html (CNBC/Reuters) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 31-Mar-2019 World View: Ebola cases continue to sure in DRC There were 15 new confirmed cases of Ebola in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on Friday, following 14 new confirmed cases on Thursday. The number of new cases is surging, two weeks after health officials said that the outbreak was largely contained. At the same time, five Ebola medical centers have been attacked since last month, sometimes by armed assailants, forcing health workers to suspend activities. The new cases are all still in DRC. There have been no cases reported across the porous borders into Uganda, Rwanda or South Sudan. ---- Sources: -- DRC records 15 new Ebola cases in one day https://www.africanews.com/2019/03/30/drc-records-15-new-ebola-cases-in-one-day/ (Africa News/Reuters) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 31-Mar-2019 Communist ideology and the Great Leap Forward Navigator Wrote:> Sorry to have not explained myself better. I am not blaming wars John Wrote:> I'm not aware of any war or major policy launched by any country I'm going to have to partially revise my answer to this message to be in closer agreement with you. I still believe that revenge was Mao's primary motivation for the Great Leap Forward, but it seems that ideology played a much larger role than I had assumed. Here's what Mao wrote in 1939: Quote:> "The socialist revolution aims at liberating the This stuff is so completely delusional, so completely out of touch with reality that it's amazing that anyone could believe it, and yet Mao not only believed it but killed tens of millions of Chinese in the pursuit of those beliefs. On April 15, 1958, Mao wrote "Introducing a Co-operative," saying the following: Quote:> "Apart from their other characteristics, the This is the cruelest part of Mao's delusion. China's people were flat on their backs from the Sino-Japanese war and the civil war, and they wanted to put their lives back together. Mao took advantage of these poor, credulous people by inflicting on them one of the greatest horrors of any nation in history, an even greater horror than the Holocaust that the Nazis had just inflicted in the previous decade. So obviously this insane ideology was a major driving force behind the Great Leap Forward, but the desire for revenge must have also driven him. There's a comic aspect to all this. Mao completely destroyed any credibility that communist ideology might have had. He had tried pure Communism in the Great Leap Forward, but instead of producing a Socialist Paradise, it killed tens of millions of people and was a total disaster. Mao's death in 1977 was a turning point for China. Mao had devastated the country with the Great Leap Forward and the Great Cultural Revolution, and the economy was in shambles. China was still as much flat on its back as it had been after WW II, while "economic miracles" had been occurring in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. They were all turning into economic superpowers, while China was still a backwater land of peasants that could barely feed itself. This was thoroughly humiliating to China in every possible way. So out of desperation, Deng Xiaoping introduced the 'Reform and Opening Up' of China in 1978. The Chinese people believe themselves the superior race, and everyone else being barbarians and vassals. It was completely a violation of Chinese culture to turn to the lessons of other nations, and apply them to themselves. So it must have been an act of total desperation when Deng Xiaoping demanded that China "open up" to other nations, trying to catch up to Japan, which had opened up a century earlier. The elements of Deng's reform including the de-collectivization of the countryside, followed with industrial reforms aimed at decentralizing government controls in the industrial sector and a much wider range of personal rights and freedoms for average Chinese. What's really laughable about this is that it was a complete repudiation of Marxism, Socialism and Communism. China was no longer a "socialist" country. This, however, was a major public relations problem for the government, which was still the Chinese Communist Party. This was when various phrases started being used, like "socialist modernization" and "socialism with Chinese characteristics." What these phrases mean is "socialism with capitalism and free markets and private property, but we're going to call it socialism anyway for public relations purposes." The phrase "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is used all the time by Xi Jinping. Insofar as this phrase means anything at all, it's the same as Hitler's "National Socialism." Basically, China is a Fascist country, very close to launching a war against Japan. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 04-Apr-2019 World View: Breaking news on China-Japan Book The moment has come. During the last week, I've been pushing very hard to keep working on my book. Yesterday, I finished writing one section, and looked to see what I had to do next, and I discovered, amazingly, that there was nothing left. The book was finished.
Well, there are a few small sub-sections that need to be filled in, and the whole book needs to be reviewed and edited, but basically the book is finished. The current draft can be read here: http://generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.scbk.gx113.htm If you want a .doc file, then copy the entire web page and paste it into Microsoft Word. It's not beautiful, but it's quite readable. This book is monumental. It's the best book available today for anyone who wants to understand China. Unfortunately, that makes little difference, as it probably won't sell more than a few dozen copies, like the Iran book. For me, it will just be another dead end. That's the realistic assessment, based on 15+ years of bitter experience. I now have 2-3 weeks of work to do to resolve some formatting issues, do a complete edit, and then get the book into Amazon. The changes will be reflected online as I make them. There are about 103,000 words, and in printed form it will be 300+ pages. If there's anyone willing to take a few hours and review the entire book errors and typos, that would be greatly appreciated. If that's too much, then just review one part of the book that interests you. Thanks. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 04-Apr-2019 World View: Libya close to war, as Haftar's army moves west
After the fall of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya evolved into a country with two governments. In the West, including the capital city Tripoli, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj leads the Government of National Accord (GNA), internationally recognized by America, Europe and the United Nations. In the east is Khalifa Haftar (Hiftar), a military strongman and former Gaddafi ally, who is considered an international "renegade." Haftar has been taking control of more and more of Libya, and some reports say that Haftar's army controls 80% of Libya and, more important, 80% of the oil production. On Thursday, Haftar ordered his forces to move west and march on Tripoli. It's not entirely clear what his intentions are, but it's possible that Libya is on the brink of war between Haftar's forces and the UN-recognized government of Fayez al-Serraj. --- Sources: -- Hafter / Hifter / Key OPEC oil producer Libya is on the brink of war as general orders forces into Tripoli https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/04/libyan-forces-move-on-tripoli-threaten-to-tip-oil-producer-into-war.html (CNBC) -- Libya: renegade leader Haftar orders forces to march to Tripoli https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/chief-deeply-concerned-military-escalation-libya-190404081217912.html (Al-Jazeera) -- UN chief urges restraint as Haftar forces draw closer to Libya's Tripoli https://www.france24.com/en/20190404-guterres-urges-restraint-haftar-libya-tripoli-fighting (France24/Reuters) --- Related: ** 14-Nov-18 World View -- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181114.htm#e181114 ** 3-Sep-18 World View -- Libya declares state of emergency, closes Tripoli airport ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180903.htm#e180903 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2019 ** 04-Apr-2019 World View: MIT cuts ties with China's Huawei The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has severed ties with Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp. However, the reason given is not security or espionage, but to avoid sanctions violations. According to the announcement by Maria T. Zuber, Vice President for Research: Quote: "MIT faculty naturally and enthusiastically seek out This story interests me because I used to be an MIT student, and because my apartment building is next door to MIT. --- Sources: -- Elite U.S. school MIT cuts ties with Chinese tech firms Huawei, ZTE https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-huawei-tech-zte/elite-us-school-mit-cuts-ties-with-chinese-tech-firms-huawei-zte-idUSKCN1RG0FS (Reuters) -- Maria T. Zuber / Huawei / MIT / New review process for 'elevated-risk' international proposals http://orgchart.mit.edu/node/27/letters_to_community/new-review-process-elevated-risk-international-proposals (MIT) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-07-2019 ** 07-Apr-2019 World View: US withdraws troops from Libya as fighting continues in Tripoli Three days ago, I described how Libya is close to war: *** 04-Apr-2019 World View: Libya close to war, as Haftar's army moves west http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=44951#p44951 Since then, the army of Khalifa Haftar (Hiftar) has entered Tripoli from three sides, and has been met with militias from Misrata who are loyal to the existing Tripoli government. According to reports, 21 people have been killed, and 27 wounded. Reports I've heard are mixed about how this is likely to turn out. Some analysts say that Haftar will probably not succeed in Tripoli, and his army will be driven back. Another report claims that Haftar's intention is to become a dictator, using Muammar Gaddafi as a model. Haftar was once a general under Gaddafi. Africom, the US Africa Command, has announced: Quote:> "Due to increased unrest in Libya, a contingent of Fighting is continuing. Calls by the United Nations for a temporary truce were ignored. ---- Sources: -- Libya crisis: Fighting near Tripoli leaves 21 dead https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47844513 (BBC) -- Declining security in Libya results in personnel relocation, agility emphasis http://www.africom.mil/media-room/pressrelease/31698/declining-security-in-libya-results-in-personnel-relocation-agility-emphasis (Africom) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-07-2019 ** 07-Apr-2019 World View: Libya addendum Some additional notes to the above story on Libya. Egypt and the UAE are backing Hafter, while Italy, France, Britain and the United States are backing the existing government. There's a fear that if the chaos in Tripoli worsens, then there will be a new flood of refugees crossing the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe. |