Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory
Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version

+- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum)
+-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html)
+--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html)
+--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239

25-Apr-19 World View -- ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing - John J. Xenakis - 04-24-2019

*** 25-Apr-19 World View -- ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Sri Lanka bombing said to be worst since 9/11
  • ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing
  • Chaos in the Sri Lanka government
  • Sri Lankans fear a return to the civil war
  • Sri Lanka's Generational Recover Era

****
**** Sri Lanka bombing said to be worst since 9/11
****

[Image: g190424b.jpg]
One of the blasts tore through St. Sebastian's Church in Negombo, north of Colombo, Sri Lanka. (Getty)

The death toll has risen above 350, and over 500 injured, in the
Easter Sunday bombing of churches and hotels in Colombo, the capital
city, and other cities in Sri Lanka. The church bombings took place
in the middle of Easter Sunday services, to maximize carnage. Some
analysts are saying that this is the worst terror attack since the
attack on 9/11/2001.

So far, police have arrested 30 people in conjunction with
the attacks.

The investigation has concluded that the perpetrators were National
Thowheeth Jamaath (NTJ), a little-known jihadist terror group
operating in South Asia. NJT has not claimed credit for the attack.
In fact, no one claimed responsibility for the attack until ISIS did
so through its public relations agency Amaq. NJT has been in
existence since 2014, but hasn't previously done much more than
vandalize Buddhist statues.

According to the police, the suicide bombers are well-educated, from
middle or upper-middle class well-to-do families, and hold college
degrees from the United Kingdom and Australia.

That's why this is so puzzling to analysts. It's a huge leap to go
from vandalizing Buddhist statues to Sunday's extremely sophisticated
attack, six coordinated suicide attacks in cities across the country,
with multiple attacks, multiple attack sites, multiple cities,
multiple churches, two hotels and a banquet facility, all coordinated,
using bombs that are fairly sophisticated.

A claim by ISIS is always suspect, since they've often taken credit
for terror attacks they had nothing to do with. However in this case,
the complexity of the attack combined with Christian and tourist
targets that are more ISIS-like targets supports the view that ISIS
was involved before the attack. Speculation now is that ISIS sent out
some operatives to recruit and train NTJ, perhaps in the role of
terrorist consultants.

Another questions is the massive number of weapons that were
involved, including caches of more weapons that were discovered
by the police after the attack. The question of how so many
weapons could be smuggled into the country was answered by
one analyst who pointed out that the country is still awash with
weapons from the Sri Lanka civil war that ended in 2009.

Sri Lanka is a mainly Buddhist and Hindu country, but there is a small
minority of Muslims. Muslims make up 9.7% of the population, Roman
Catholics make up 6.1%, Hindu 12.6%, and Buddhists make up 70.2%. The
JTH is thought to have grown out of that small group of Muslims, and
were recruited by ISIS to plan Sunday's attack.

****
**** ISIS claims credit for Sri Lanka Easter Sunday bombing
****

ISIS has suffered major setbacks in Syria and Iraq, and has lost its
caliphate and all the land that it controlled. However, ISIS is not
eliminated, just like al-Qaeda. Both ISIS and al-Qaeda are like
terrorist fundamentalist religion sects; just because you kill some of
them, there are more to take its place. ISIS is the "younger" of the
two terrorist groups, so they appeal to different generations,
depending on the country.

So ISIS has to adopt a different game plan, and that game
plan is to launch terror attacks in other countries. Thus,
we can expect to see more attacks like the one in Sri Lanka.

Why was Sri Lanka chosen? It has a small Muslim community, about 10%
of the population, with no history of terror attacks, so it might have
been easy for ISIS operatives to find a couple of dozen disaffected
young people who could be radicalized and trained to carry out this
attack.

One surprising aspect is that no Buddhist targets were chosen for the
terror attack. These undoubtedly would have been the choice of an
indigenous terror group like NTJ, but once they had pledged allegiance
to ISIS, they would have been committed to the ISIS objectives. ISIS
would not be interested in a Buddhist target, since they want to
attack Western targets, and that leads to the selection of hotels and
Catholic Churches.

There has been speculation that the attack on Catholic churches may
have been in retaliation for a recent high profile attack on a Muslim
mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand. The motivation for making this
connection appears to be a purely political attempt to blame the Sri
Lankan bombing on so-called "white supremacists." However, the
planning for the Sri Lanka attack must have begun months earlier. So
the most influence that the New Zealand attack could have had is,
perhaps, a last minute decision to attack an extra church.

****
**** Chaos in the Sri Lanka government
****

A major scandal is brewing because US and Indian intelligence
agencies had warned Sri Lanka intelligence agencies on April 4
that there was reason to believe that a terror attack would occur
around Easter. The information was distributed on April 9 to
some ministries, but apparently not any farther.

So after the attack on April 21, the prime minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe complained loudly on Monday that he had never received
the warning, and if he had, the attacks could have been prevented.
Wickremesinghe blamed the president for keeping it from him.

The president, Maithripala Sirisena, did not immediately respond, but
finally on Tuesday said that he hadn't received the warning either.
However, many people believe that Sirisena did received the warning
but took no action.

In October of last year, Sirisena, who is pro-China, tried to fire
Wickremesinghe, who is pro-India, over a dispute over whether China or
India should be awarded a port infrastructure project.

Sirisena had wanted to replace the fired prime minister with a prime
minister of his choice, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is also pro-Chinese.

Rajapaksa was the president of Sri Lanka before Sirisena. When
Rajapaksa was president, he signed the agreement with China to build
the Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap"
deal, putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control
of the seaport over to China. Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much
debt that it will never be paid back. Furthermore, China not only has
control of the Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large
enclave of Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the
seaport. The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka, and
it's not hard to see why Rajapaksa is unpopular.

Now that the Easter Sunday attack has occurred, Sri Lanka is returning
to a full-scale chaotic constitutional crisis. On Wednesday, Sirisena
on Wednesday fired the chief of police and defense secretary.
However, the general public are furious that government officials
received intelligence information from India and the US weeks ago, and
didn't act on it. Many are blaming it on the bitter dispute between
Sirisena and Wickremesinghe.

****
**** Sri Lankans fear a return to the civil war
****

Sri Lankans had hoped and assumed that this level of violence
was over, once and for all, once the Sri Lankan civil war ended
in May, 2009. As a result, people became complacent, and
security was lax.

For 30 years, from the 1970s to May 2009, Sri Lanka's entire society
has been dominated by the Sri Lankan civil war between the ethnic
majority (Buddhist) Sinhalese and a separatist faction, the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) or Tamil Tigers, consisting of an army of
thousands from the ethnic minority (Hindu) Tamils.

It's worthwhile reviewing how it ended, because that's highly relevant
today. As I was developing generational theory, I followed the Sri
Lanka civil war closely, and wrote a number of articles about it,
since it was one of only two generational crisis wars going on at the
time (the other being in Darfur).

There had been low-level violence between the Tamils and Sinhalese
since the 1970s, with periods of violence separated by numerous peace
agreements and ceasefires. In 2006, the tempo of violence increased
sharply, and it seemed clear that there would be no more peace
treaties, although there was officially a moribund ceasefire in effect
that had been negotiated by the Norwegians in 2002.

In January 2008, a series of terror attacks by the LTTE caused
the Sri Lankan army to issue a statement saying that the ceasefire
agreement would be thrown out completely, and that the army would
destroy the LTTE by the end of the year. From the point of view
of generational theory, this was a signal that the war was taking
a major turn. Patience was running out, the value of a human
life was diminishing, and nothing mattered any more except
winning. This was the point where the civil war turned into
a generational crisis war.

During the next year, both sides committed acts that have been
described as war crimes. In brief, the Tamil Tiger terrorists
embedded themselves into civilian neighborhoods so that any bombs
targeting Tamil Tigers would also kill civilians, and the Sinhalese
army bombed the Tamil Tiger locations, even though it meant bombing
civilians. This is a classic example of the moral degeneracy that
occurs on both side of a generational crisis war as it approaches its
climax, and the need to win takes precedence over everything else,
particularly the lives of civilians.

In the spring of 2009, it was clear that Sri Lanka was approaching the
climax of the generational crisis war. And this is where all the
reporters, politicians and analysts got their analyses completely
wrong. Everyone that I read was saying that one battle was nearing an
end, but that it had been going on since the 1970s, and would continue
far into the future. I even wrote a message to Stratfor and told them
that their analysis was wrong, and that the war would end completely.
Of course they ignored it. Stratfor charges big bucks for their
newsletter, but like other analysts they were completely wrong, and
just followed the herd and wrote what everyone else was writing,
and got it wrong like all the others did.

When a generational crisis war ends, it does not then go on afterwards
in another battle. When Berlin was captured, the Nazis didn't
continue the war in some other country. When Japan was bombed, the
Japanese didn't continue the war on another Pacific island.

A crisis war ends with what I can an "explosive climax," referring to
the genocidal acts and atrocities that both sides commit out of
desparation to end the war. Once the war concludes, each side is
exhausted and traumatized -- not just because of the atrocities the
other side had committed, but because of their own atrocities.

And that's what happened in Sri Lanka. The BBC, Stratfor, the AP were
all predicting that war would continue, and they were all wrong. The
war ended and there was no more fighting as the Generational Dynamics
analysis correctly predicted.

****
**** Sri Lanka's Generational Recover Era
****

A similar error is being made today by analysts and journalists
analyzing Sri Lanka's society today. They all assume that Sri Lanka
society is like the society in India, in America, in Europe, or
someplace similar.

To understand the mood of Sri Lanka's society today, you have to
compare it to, for example, America in the 1950s, in a generational
Recovery era following WW II. That was the time when the Silent
Generation were taking charge. They had been so traumatized by the
Great Depression and WW II, that Time Magazine called them the Silent
Generation because they just did their job and never complained.

Sri Lanka's society today is like that, in a generational Recovery era
following the crisis civil war. Everyone -- the Sinhalese, the
Tamils, the Buddhists, the Hindus, the Muslims -- everyone is still in
a state of shock, traumatized by the atrocities that had been
committed during the civil war, just doing their jobs, not
complaining.

There are small groups of exceptions. There's Bodu Bala Sena (BBS -
Forces of Buddhist Power), a terror group led by Buddhist monk
Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara, formed in 2012 to purify Sri Lanka for the
Buddhists by exterminating the Christians, Hindus and Muslims.
Gnanasara was jailed last year for terrorist acts.

Another group is the one in focus today: The National Thowheeth
Jamaath (NTJ, National Monotheism Organisation), a formerly obscure
Islamist group formed in 2014, with a reputation for vandalising
Buddhist statues. The Muslims were perhaps a little less traumatized
than the Buddhists and Hindus who committed all the atrocities
during the civil war, but they were still deeply affected.

The main difference for NTJ, apparently, is that a disaffected group
vandalizing Buddhist statues were radicalized by ISIS operatives to
accept training, and to turn their targets away from Buddhists towards
Christians and western tourists.

Generational theory provides a description of Sri Lanka's society in
the years to come, and unfortunately the news is not good. When the
war ended in May 2009, the Sinhalese, Tamils, Buddhists, Hindus,
Christians and Muslims were all traumatized, and became like the
"Silent Generation," just doing their jobs without complaining. But
as a new generation of kids grows up after the war, they do not share
those traumatized attitudes, and they're going to be looking for
revenge for real or imagined atrocities. That means that the
frequency of terror attacks by Buddhists, Hindus and Muslims is going
to attack, as the new generational cycle proceeds. Sydney Morning Herald and News First (Sri Lanka) and Sunday Times (Sri Lanka) and AP and Sky News (Australia) and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka,
National Thowheeth Jamaath, NTJ, National Monotheism Organisation.
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims, Sinhalese, Tamils,
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, Tamil Tigers,
Bodu Bala Sena, BBS, Forces of Buddhist Power,
Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara, Maithripala Sirisena,
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa, India, China,
Hambantota port, China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-26-2019

** 26-Apr-2019 World View: China's Xi Jinping defends Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Speaking at at a forum for China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),
China's president Xi Jinping made promises in an attempt to respond
to many criticisms of the BRI and of China's unfair trade practices.

The BRI was launched in 2013 as the $1 trillion One Belt One Road
(OBOR), a revival of the ancient Silk Road, with numerous
infrastructure projects in dozens of countries. The projects include
seaports, airports, roads, dams, some of which are becoming Chinese
military bases.

Xi Jinping is facing a great deal of criticism for several reasons:
  • The BRI is being increasingly criticized as a tool for "debt trap
    diplomacy," bribing country leaders to accept loans that are too big
    to be repaid, and then taking ownership of the seaports or airports
    when the country defaults. I've written about this many times.


  • At the same time, China is involved in the US-China trade talks,
    where China is being criticized for illegal trading practices and
    intellectual property (IP) theft.

Xi tried to answer that in his speech Friday morning, where he made
the following announcements:
  • China will step up protecting the legitimate rights and interests
    of foreign owners of intelketual property rights, and prohibit the
    forced transfer of technology and will create a business environment
    in which the value of knowledge is respected.


  • China will allow foreign investors to operate businesses in more
    sectors with controlling or full stake and China will roll out a new
    batch of pilot free trade zones


  • China will support 5,000 people from innovation sector in Belt and
    Rood countries in conducting exchanges, training programs and joint
    researches in the nest five years.


  • The open, green and clean approaches should be adhered to and the
    BRI is not about creating exclusive circles


  • A total of 40000 representatives of political parties, think tank
    and non- governmental organizations from countries participating in
    the Belt and Road Initiative will be invited to China for exchanges in
    the next five years.


  • China will increase imports of goods and soviets on a larger soak
    and further lower its tariff rates. China is willing to import more
    competitive farm produces and services.


  • The Silk Road Chinese government scholarship program will be
    continued and °dairies like the International Youth Forum on
    Creativity and Heritage, and the Chinese Bridge Summer Camp will go
    on.

This all sounds nice, but he's just making a lot of empty promises.

In 2015, on the White House lawn, at a time when China was rapidly
militarizing the South China Sea, Xi Jinping told Barack Obama to his
face that China was not militarizing the South China Sea. That was a
lie at the level of Hitler's "peace in our time." If Xi can lie about
something as important than that, then he can't be trusted in any way.

So as I watched his speech, my assumption was that it was interesting,
but that he was completely full of crap. He talked about "better
financing" and "greater transparency." And there had been a big deal
about Ethiopia having some interest payments forgiven. But there were
no specifics. The contracts will all remain top secret. The whole
"debt trap" model will be continued. The Kenya contract that I wrote
about a few months ago when it was leaked was incredible. Kenya's
president Uhuru Kenyatta was apparently paid off to sign the contract,
the Chinese treat the Kenyans like shit, the contract says that in
case of default, China can take control of ANY Kenyan asset -- even
things like foreign embassies. It's incredible. And the contract
says that any disputes would be resolved by Chinese courts.

So we can safely assume that everything Xi says about BRI is nonsense.

But this speech was about more than BRI. These promises also were
clearly aimed at the US-China trade talks, and Xi very much wants
those negotiations to be settled on favorable terms for China. China
is used to making trade promises and then ignoring them.

According to Trump, the trade talks are going very well. According to
press statements by the negotiators, the trade talks are going very
well.

They're saying that the final agreement will contain tough
verification terms, and if China tries to cheat, then harsh tariffs
will be reimposed.

All I can say is that I'll believe it when I see it. The Chinese
consider Americans and everyone else in the West to be lowly
barbarians. The Chinese have proven that they will find a way to
cheat on every agreement. Whether an agreement will be reached, and
whether the US negotiators will make the agreement "cheat-proof" is
something that I'm highly skeptical about, but waiting to see.

---- Sources:

-- Xi vows open, inclusive and transparent BRI
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1147663.shtml
(Global Times, China)


-- China's Xi pledges to 'fight corruption' at Belt and Road summit
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/04/china-xi-pledges-fight-corruption-belt-road-summit-190426063632664.html
(Al-Jazeera)

-- At China’s BRI meet, President Xi skips fresh funds pledge amid
talk of debt-trap
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/xi-doesn-t-pledge-fresh-funds-for-bri-talks-shared-development-at-forum/story-irH5Ho4DJXuJaa8bGyIlQN.html
(Hindustan Times)


---- Related:

** 15-Jan-19 World View -- Kenya's leaked BRI contract reveals shocking China debt trap details
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190115.htm#e190115

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-27-2019

Eventually Americans will come to the conclusion that the Chinese are, in general, untrustworthy.

And that trying to trade with China is like trying to trade with a con man.

We should expect to see the escalation of trade wars, which will become more draconian.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-27-2019

(04-27-2019, 06:18 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Eventually Americans will come to the conclusion that the Chinese are, in general, untrustworthy.

And that trying to trade with  China is like trying to trade with a con man.

We should expect to see the escalation of trade wars, which will become more draconian.


We are in deep trouble should China get a hold of our public and private debt -- or a big chunk of it. We could lose control of our public assets, including roads, dams (thus power generation), and hospitals. If you think medical care is expensive now, then just imagine what happens if foreign interests own the hospitals and exact huge costs just to collect on debt and interest. Interest will be at loan-shark terms that we will never be able to cast off.

I distrust any political entity (like China) that treats its own people badly to treat us well.

We need to start weaning America off debt even if such brings about another Great Depression. We need to get people to invest money in federal bonds as we did with War Bonds during World War II so that more America's federal debt. We need to promote small business at the expense even of formal education. (As compensation, business owners' kids do well in formal education and the workforce).

29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Cha - John J. Xenakis - 04-28-2019

*** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
  • History of South Korea's indigenous weapons industry
  • Chinese fury and revenge over THAAD
  • South Korea's network of anti-missile defenses

Note: This article was originally published by Baillie-Gifford
investment management firm on March 9. Updates since them: North
Korea has tested a low-altitude cruise missile, and Kim Jong-un has
met with Vladimir Putin.

****
**** South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
****

[Image: g190428b.jpg]
Sohae Launch Facility in North Korea, March 2, 2019

New satellite imagery shows that North Korea has begun a rapid
rebuilding of the Sohae Launch Facility, used for testing long-range
ballistic missiles.

The Sohae facility has been inactive since August 2018, when North
Korea committed to dismantle it in order to "prove" that it was
denuclearizing. North Korea demanded a reduction in sanctions in
exchange, which was refused. The US agreed to temporarily end large
military drills with South Korea, and has recently extended that to a
permanent ban, after the Hanoi summit ended in failure. At the same
time, the US demanded from North Korea a list of all nuclear and
missile development sites, and a timeline to dismantle all of them,
which North Korea has refused.

It's not clear if this is play-acting by the North Koreans, or whether
it represents a plan to return to open testing of long-range ballistic
missiles. At the very least, it appears to signal a final end to the
"charm offensive" between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and their
mutual declarations of love and devotion to one another, and a return
to fear that there will be a military confrontation with North Korea.

Based on history, this fear should give a boost to the South Korean
weapons industry. According to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea has previously responded to
the belligerence of North Korea by developing weapons systems, for
both domestic use for sales overseas, with the intention of becoming a
major exporter.

****
**** History of South Korea's indigenous weapons industry
****

After being devastated by the Korean War in the 1950s, South Korea was
one of the world’s largest importers of military equipment and
technology for decades - mostly from the US. But slowly, starting the
1960s, South Korea has progressively developed a sophisticated
indigenous arms industry, first for its own armed forces and,
increasingly, for export. South Korean exports have steadily
increased since the early 2000s, and now cover a range of
high-technology weapons systems delivered to customers around the
world.

The buildup has been rapid. South Korean arms-producing companies’
combined sales totalled US$8.4 billion in 2016, with a 20.6% rise in
sales compared to 2015. According to budget plans announced in
January, South Korea plans to spend over $84 billion on new military
capabilities over five years.

South Korean weapons company LIG Nex1 is aggressively pursuing
international weapons sales, and participated last month in the
International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) 2019 opening in Abu Dhabi with
a slew of its precision-guided munitions. The company's exhibit
included the medium-range surface-to-air missile KM-SAM Cheongung, the
short-range anti-air guided missile Shingung, the lightweight torpedo
Cheongsangeo (Blue Shark), the anti-tank guided weapon Hyungung and
the counter-battery radar II.

****
**** Chinese fury and revenge over THAAD
****

The KM-SAM Cheongung is playing a significant role in South Korea's
defenses to a North Korean missile attack. North Korea has for
decades been exposed to North Korea’s large and diverse arsenal of
tactical and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

The most controversial component of South Korea's growing missile
defense system is the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD),
supplied by the United States military. THAAD is designed to shoot
down ballistic missiles on their terminal trajectory as they plunge
down to their targets.

The US has for years asked South Korea's government to permit
deployment of THAAD systems in South Korea. South Korea demurred,
mainly because of opposition from China, though agreed in 2014 to
allow it in principle. Then, because of North Korea's aggressive
schedule of nuclear and missile tests, South Korea agreed to a
surprise deployment of two THAAD launchers starting in March, 2017,
approved by the conservative president, Park Geun-bye. When liberal
president Moon Jae-in took office in May, 2017, he rejected any
further THAAD deployment. But then North Korea tested a powerful new
long-range ballistic missile on July 29, 2017, and Moon had a change
of heart, and approved further THAAD deployments, four more launchers
in addition to the two already deployed.

Chinese officials were infuriated and became almost hysterical. Why
would the Chinese object to the deployment in South Korea of an
anti-missile system that would protect South Korea from North Korean
missiles? Chinese media provided the answer:

<QUOTE>"The X-band radar can snoop on Chinese and Russian
territories as it can spot at least 2,000 km. Seoul claims that it
will adopt the radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but
the mode change can be made at any time in accordance with the
needs of the U.S military that will operate the THAAD battery in
South Korea."<END QUOTE>

In other words, the Chinese were furious because the THAAD system
includes "over the horizon" radar that would provide early warning to
the American military of a missile attack from China.

China expressed its fury with South Korea in more than mere words.
China banned tour groups from visiting China, removed popular South
Korean TV dramas from the internet. China also forced the closure of
75 South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in
losses to the company.

China particularly ordered the Chinese living in China and in South
Korea to boycott Lotte deparment stores, owned by Lotte Group, a South
Korean multinational conglomerate. China decided on this punishment
because it emerged that Lotte had agreed to a land swap that would
allow THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the
company. The enraged Chinese imposed harsh economic sanctions,
particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South
Korea with a boycott.

A correspondent living in Seoul has wrote to me in April 2017 to
describe the devastating impact of the actions by China:

<QUOTE>"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit
the country like a ton of bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte
department store today, and it was practically empty. I have
friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are
facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The
thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is
only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally
woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to
Korea. ...

I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word
'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel
sick."<END QUOTE>

By November 2017, relations between China and South Korea had
deteriorated substantially, and it was clear that the THAAD systems
would not be removed. So China backed down. In a surprise
announcement, China agreed to remove the harsh economic sanctions that
it had imposed on South Korea. However, it imposed conditions, and
suggested that the economic sanctions and boycotts would be reimposed
if the conditions are not met.

****
**** South Korea's network of anti-missile defenses
****

China had one more objection to THAAD: China said that THAAD is
useless because it is not designed to intercept North Korean missiles,
which travel at too low an altitude for THAAD.

That's an interesting argument because it's partially true. When
North Korea attacks the capital city Seoul, which is in the northern
part of South Korea, it will use low-altitude missiles for that
attack. However, THAAD is used as protection from ballistic missiles
that North Korea will use to attack the southern part of South Korea.
So what will protect Seoul?

This brings us back to the the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range
surface-to-air missile system and its new PIP missile interceptor,
manufactured by LIG Nex1 and other South Korean firms.

THAAD and KM-SAM work together to create an anti-missile defense
network. While THAAD defends against high-altitude ballistic
missiles, KM-SAM can defend against low-altitude aircraft and missile
attacks. The American-made Patriot anti-missile systems also provide
a tactical layer of defense.

Late last year, LIG Nex1 signed a 499 billion won ($450 million) mass
production contract with the South Korean government to produce KM-SAM
systems. Other companies, including Hanhwa System, Hanhwa Defense,
Hyundai and Kia, will participate in the mass production. According
to LIG Nex1, KM-SAM is attracting high interest in overseas market due
to its excellent operational performance, and it is expected to be
exported on a large scale in the future.

However, the KM-SAM has plenty of competition. Last month, the
Colombian Air Force selected Israel's Barak-8 system over South
Korea's KM-SAM and other similar systems from Canada, Spain, the
United States and France. Yonhap (15-Feb-2019)
and NK News (11-Jan-2019) and National Interest (24-Feb-2019) and Army Recognition (13-Sep-2018) and AFP (20-Jul-2018) and Jerusalem Post (20-Feb-2019)

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, North Korea,
Sohae Launch facility, LIG Nex1, KM-SAM Cheongung,
International Defence Exhibition, IDEX,
Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD,
Park Geun-bye, Moon Jae-in, China, Russia,
Lotte Group, Patriot anti-missile system,
Israel, Barak-8

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-30-2019

** 30-Apr-2019 World View: Military uprising ('attempted coup') in Venezuela

There is a growing clash in Venezuela on Tuesday, 4/30, after
opposition leader Juan Guaidó called for a military uprising to oust
Nicolás Maduro. There are various rallies and demonstrations in
Caracas and other cities, and many of these are carried on the BBC,
but it's impossible to judge whether it's growing or fizzling.

---- Sources:

-- Venezuela’s Guaido calls for military uprising while flanked by
soldiers at Caracas airbase: ‘The moment is now’
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-guaido-military-uprising-caracas-airbase
(Fox News, 30-Apr-2019)

-- Attempted coup underway in Venezuela
https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/juan-guaido-venezuela-operation-freedom-live-updates/index.html
(CNN, 30-Apr-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-30-2019

** 30-Apr-2019 World View: Huawei 'backdoor' found in routers sold to Vodafone

It has emerged that the giant European telecom firm Vodafone Group Plc
discovered hidden "backdoors" in routers and other networking
equipment installed by Huawei in the latter part of the 2000s decade.

The backdoor uses the Telnet protocol, which is an ancient protocol
originally developed in 1969 to allow dumb terminals to communicate
with IBM mainframe computers over an open phone line. Since then,
it's evolved to run on top of other networking protocols, such as
TCP/IP. It used to be that telnet was often installed in networking
equipment to permit maintenance people to access the equipment and
configure it without requiring passwords and bypassing other security.
However, because of its lack of security, it's been mostly abandoned
for that purpose since the late 1990s.

Vodafone first discovered the breach in 2009, and asked Huawei to
remove the Telnet support. Huawei promised to do so, and later said
that it had been removed. But subsequent Vodafone investigations in
2011-12 revealed that the Telnet code was still implemented. Huawei
then refused to remove it, claiming that it was necessary for support.

Huawei claims that Telnet is routinely used by all companies,
including Cisco.

Another argument being used is that Huawei has extremely sloppy coding
standards, resulting in lots of bugs, and that Telnet is still being
used for that reason. This is an interesting argument in support of
Huawei, but it only adds to the concern that any of these bugs might
be used to hack the device.

The Vodafone situation is being described by some analysts as "smoking
gun" proof that Huawei installs backdoors. Huawei claims that Telnet
is used only for configuration and maintenance, not for hacking.
Vodafone is on the side of Huawei, and continues to install Huawei
devices.

This comes after the discovery last year that Huawei was hacking into
African Union servers that Huawei had installed in 2012, and was
stealing data until discovered in 2018.

My own view, as I've described many times, based on my years of
experience developing board level operating systems for embedded
systems, and based on China's legal requirement that all companies
cooperate with and provide intelligence to the military, is that
Huawei has been installing undetectable backdoors for years. Using
Telnet is pretty easily detected, so that isn't what I was referring
to. It's possible that Huawei used Telnet in the early days, but
starting around 2010 began to implement more sophisticated
undetectable backdoors.

[Image: -1x-1.png]
  • Countries embracing or banning Huawei (Bloomberg)


[Image: -1x-1.png]
  • Huawei international market share, 2013-2018 (Bloomberg)

[Image: -1x-1.png]
  • Huawei's competition (Bloomberg)


-- Vodafone Found Hidden Backdoors in Huawei Equipment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/vodafone-found-hidden-backdoors-in-huawei-equipment
(Bloomberg, 30-Apr-2019)

-- The African Union headquarters hack and Australia’s 5G network
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-african-union-headquarters-hack-and-australias-5g-network/
(Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 13-Jul-2018)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-30-2019

** 30-Apr-2019 World View: Battle for Idlib may be starting in Syria

According to various reports, Syrian troops have been massing on the
border with Idlib province, while Russia's warplanes have been bombing
targets within the province.

The war in Syria has been off the front pages recently, but it's far
from over. Idlib province is still a boiling cauldron of opposing
forces that could explode into something much larger at any time, and
may be doing so right now.

Idlib province in northwest Syria is currently hosting over three
million Sunni Arabs. Al-Assad has vowed to regain control of Idlib,
which would amount to genocide and ethnic cleansing of the three
million Sunni Arabs currently living there. Idlib is a "de-escalation
zone," with Turkey responsible for maintaining the ceasefire. An
attack by al-Assad could lead to a full war between Syria and Turkey.
Also, it could create a new humanitarian disaster, with millions of
Sunni Arabs pouring across the border into Turkey, and from there into
Europe, bringing back the days of 2015.

Since 2011, Al-Assad moved through different regions of Syria. In
each case, he begins by bombing peaceful protesters, particularly
women and children. As soon as someone become violent in revenge, he
declares the whole community or ethnic group to be "terrorists," and
uses that as an excuse for full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing.
The genocide is performed with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas
and Sarin gas, all particularly targeting women and children, as well
as schools, markets, and hospitals.

Al-Assad's ethnic cleansing policy as applied locally to different
regions -- Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa -- has been well-documented by
thousands of media reports, as I've been reporting for years. It's
been suspected that there's a larger picture that al-Assad was
plotting to completely exterminate or cleanse Sunnis across the
country. This has been denied by the Syrians and their trolls.
However, evidence has been growing in the last six months that show
exactly how al-Assad plans to implement his "final solution,"
eliminating all Sunnis in Syria.

In each of these different regions, al-Assad has reluctantly agreed to
a temporary solution by allowing people to flee the region and go to
Idlib province, with the result that Idlib province's population has
gone from about 1.5 million people to about three million people. Of
the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000 or so
anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and
jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the
al-Nusra Front.

Al-Assad has always said that he would attack Idlib and the three
million "terrorists" living them, but he was held off by an agreement
between Turkey and Russia, whereby Turkey would guarantee that all the
anti-Assad rebels would lay down their arms. This hasn't happened.

When al-Assad's assault on Idlib begins, there will be a massive
humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of thousands or millions of people
will pour across the border into Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5
million Syrian refugees. Some of the Idlib refugees will undoubtedly
continue on into Europe, resulting in a new European migrant crisis.

So if the reports are correct that the Idlib assault is beginning,
then expect the really important news, such as plans in Congress for
impeachment, to be eclipsed briefly while hundreds of thousands of
Syrians face death.

Well, Dear Reader, there certainly has been a lot of news today,
hasn't there.


--- Sources:


-- Russia says Idlib not to be 'safe zone for terrorists'
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia-says-idlib-not-to-be-safe-zone-for-terrorists-143035
(Anadolu, Turkey, 30-Apr-2019)

-- Syrian Army begins amassing forces for mother of all battles in
Idlib
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-begins-amassing-forces-for-mother-of-all-battles-in-idlib/
(Al Masdar News, Damascus, 30-Apr-2019)


-- Syrian Army given green light for Idlib offensive: source
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-given-green-light-for-idlib-offensive-source/
(Al Masdar News, Damascus, 30-Apr-2019)

-- US Urges Russia to End 'Escalation' in Syria's Idlib
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-urges-russia-to-end-escalation-in-syria-s-idlib/4897999.html
(AFP, 30-Apr-2019)



--- Related:

** 1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181201.htm#e181201

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-01-2019

** 01-May-2019 Crisis war era

John Wrote:> A country cannot have a crisis civil war except in a Crisis
> era.

I'll expand on this a bit.

A crisis war requires that at least one of the combatants must be
several years into a generational Crisis era, the deeper the better
(or worse).

It therefore follows logically that if a nation has a civil war, it
cannot be a crisis civil war, unless the nation is in a Crisis era,
the deeper the better (or worse).

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-01-2019

** 01-May-2019 World View: Venezuela Wednesday riots

Analysts can't figure out whether the anti-regime demonstrations in
Venezuela are growing or fizzling.

Today there were more pro-opposition mass protests, but there were no
signs of defections by army generals, which is really the deciding
factor.

Furthermore, American officials are saying that Russians and Cubans
are heavily involved, and they even convinced Nicolás Maduro on
Tuesday not to flee to Cuba.

Venezuela's last generational crisis war ended in 1958, so the country
is only a couple of years into a new Crisis era. Generally, a crisis
civil war requires that the country be at least five or ten years into
a Crisis era, so it seems most likely that the current protests will
fizzle.

The United Nations is accusing the Venezuelan security forces
of using excessive force on protesters.

--- Sources:

-- Venezuela crisis: Protesters gather after Guaidó call
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48123569
(BBC, 1-May-2019)

-- Comment by UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Marta Hurtado on
Venezuela
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=24544&LangID=E
(United Nations Human Rights office)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2019

** 02-May-2019 World View: Syria and Russia advance assault on Idlib

With major crises going on in Venezuela and over Russia collusion
in Washington, something that's completely off the radar in news
coverage is the growing assault on Idlib province by Syrian regime
forces using barrel bombs and Russian warplanes.

As we recently described, Idlib is the place where all the Sunni
Arabs fled with their home regions were being targeted for ethnic
cleansing by the regime forces of Bashar al-Assad in 2014-2018,
doubling the population of Idlib from 1.5 million to over 3 million.

The UN on Wednesday said 140,000 people were displaced in Idlib since
bombing began to intensify in February.

The attacks since February were mostly mortar bombs, but the assault
escalated sharply on Wednesday with intense strikes by Russian
warplanes and by helicopters dropping barrel bombs.

According to reports, the barrel bombs are targeting hospitals.
In the past, al-Assad targeted women and children in schools,
marketplaces and residential areas. The barrel bombs contain metal
and explosives to kill as many women and children as possible.
In the past, al-Assad's barrel bombs have contained chlorine, but
there have been no reports of chlorine at this time.

This escalation has been expected for a long time. A full-scale
assault on Idlib would result in a proxy war with Turkey.
Hundreds of thousands of people would pour across the border into
Turkey, and from there many would try to continue into Europe.


--- Sources:


-- Syria’s civilians suffer under Russian and regime bombardment of
Idlib
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/syria-s-civilians-suffer-under-russian-and-regime-bombardment-of-idlib-1.856196
(The National, UAE, 2-May-2019)

-- Assad, Russia step up attacks on opposition areas in Syria's Hama,
Idlib, activists say
https://www.dailysabah.com/syrian-crisis/2019/05/01/assad-russia-step-up-attacks-on-opposition-areas-in-syrias-hama-idlib-activists-say
(Daily Sabah, DPA, 1-May-2019)


-- Turkish-backed rebels send massive convoy of reinforcements to stop
Syrian Army’s Idlib offensive
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-rebels-send-massive-convoy-of-reinforcements-to-stop-syrian-armys-idlib-offensive/
(Al Masdar, Damascus, 1-May-2019)



-- Escalated bombing in Syria’s Idlib displaces nearly 140,000, UN
says
https://www.france24.com/en/20190502-escalated-bombing-syria-idlib-displaces-140000-un-refugees
(France24, 2-May-2019)

---- Related:

*** 30-Apr-2019 World View: Battle for Idlib may be starting in Syria
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=45418#p45418

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 05-09-2019

*** Rags** 09-May-2019 World View: US Treasury To Accuse Vietnam Of Manipulating Its Dong Big Grin



During the last few weeks, tensions have been growing rapidly
in the South China Sea:

<snip>
  • Vietnam has complained about incidents involving China’s repeated
    harassment of Vietnam’s oil and gas operations in its exclusive
    economic zone (EEZ), and China’s various violent attacks against
    Vietnamese fishermen, especially in the waters around the disputed
    Paracels.  China's navy has attacked and sank Vietnamese ships.


Maybe China's also unhappy that Vietnam is fondling its Dong.  Maybe if Vietnam imports fake Viagra from China would help soothe things over?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-09/us-treasury-expands-currency-probe-may-name-vietnam-dong-manipulator

"Perhaps in order to provide comedic relief, Bloomberg reports that Vietnam may be named a manipulator outright for artificially holding down its currency - which as Zero Hedge readers know well - is called the dong, "


Hmmmm.....

Well, yeah, of course. The sight of whipping  a dong and fapping can be an eyesore you know.


You want to buy?  Show me your Dong... My wife's not a banker but she prefers to go long on the Dong...

Trump Administration to Vietnam -> Hey! you! There shall be no more flaccid Dong.  Stiffen 'er up!

Or... since the FED is good with stimulus, ... they can also advise Vietnam.

"Tensions"?   Yeeup.  Let it be known, Dongs can and will register tension.

Hahahahahahahahahah.

LOL. Cool[Image: weed.gif]

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Kinser79 - 05-09-2019

I don't think most people would get the joke Rags. Besides "dong" simply means "money" in Vietnamese. Yes their creative government named their currency "money".

Then again could be worse I was going over my retirement accounts. Apparently one of my hedge funds invested on a Hong Kong based company called Wang. I'm fairly certain it means something different in Chinese.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 02-May-2019 World View: China's economy frays as it closes 'zombie' companies

Readers may recall that 8-10 years ago there were lots of stories
about huge "ghost towns" in China -- towns that had been constructed
with hundreds of homes, as well as stores, schools, hospitals and
various amenities. The only problem is that there were no people
living in these towns. China's government had funded the construction
of these towns just to provide jobs.

In order to fend off the financial crisis, China launched a $600
billion stimulus program. Through its system of regional banks, the
program provided cheap loans not only to build the ghost towns
described above, but also to fund thousands of state-run industrial
enterprises, including steel, aluminum, cement and coal producers.
Just as the real estate construction turned into "ghost towns," the
business loans turned into "zombie businesses."

These businesses have not made any profits because they have no
incentive to do so. Making profits requires developing new products,
entering new markets, and risking failure in other ways. But if
you're going to be bailed out by the government anyway, why do
anything risky, that might call attention to yourself? Another
possible name for these "zombie businesses" might be "Solyndras of
China," a because the Obama administration funded Solyndra, a zombie
company making solar panels before it quickly went bankrupt.

There are something like 10,000 of these zombie companies in China.
Each one might have tens of thousands of employees, with a bloated
bureaucracy producing products that nobody wants, and creating a new
debt crisis as China has to provide more and bigger loans to keep them
alive.

China has shut down 1,900 of them, and wants to shut them all by 2020.
But each time one is shut down, all the employees become unemployed.
China's economy already weakening, and closing 9,000 zombie companies
could trigger a major new financial crisis.

This is one of the possible scenarios that could lead to war. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is overdue for a
major rebellion and civil war. A major financial crisis within China,
and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would redirect towards an
external war, probably with Japan.


--- Sources:


-- Frayed nerves as China kills off its zombie companies
https://www.dw.com/en/frayed-nerves-as-china-kills-off-its-zombie-companies/a-48013707
(Deutsche-Welle, 21-March-2019 )

-- China's 'zombie' firms weighing on economy
https://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/china-s-zombie-firms-weighing-on-economy-1.835162
(Reuters, 10-Mar-2019)


-- China’s Zombie Firms Can’t Lurch Forever
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/14/chinas-zombie-firms-cant-lurch-forever/
(Foreign Policy, 14-Mar-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 02-May-2019 World View: US-China trade talks may have hit a snag

There are media reports that the US-China trade talks have hit a snag.
This is no surprise to me, since I'm highly skeptical that China would
ever agree to the harsh verification rules that the Trump
administration will supposedly impose.

A US-China trade deal that removes the punitive tariffs that the Trump
administration imposed is considered by economists to be essential to
avoid a world recesseion

China would like a system like the World Trade Organization (WTO),
where they can ignore their commitments, and then ignore the WTO
administrative ruling that finds they violated their commitments.

The Trump administration wants a unilateral "snapback system," which
would allow the US to reimpose tariffs without having to go through an
administrative trial. China opposes a snapback system, for obvious
reasons, since they could be quickly punished for cheating.

With China's economy weakening because of such things a closing zombie
businesses, the CCP are very afraid that they're facing an internal
rebellion, so they desperately need a US-China trade deal. However,
it's not clear whether the report of a snag in the trade talks is
real, or if it's a negotiating ploy to put pressure on the US
negotiators.

As I've said before, the Chinese consider Americans and everyone else
in the West to be lowly barbarians. The Chinese have proven that they
will find a way to cheat on every agreement. Whether an agreement
will be reached, and whether the US negotiators will make the
agreement "cheat-proof" is something that I'm highly skeptical about,
but waiting to see.


--- Sources:

-- Latest China-US trade talks end, revealing fewer details but
continuing efforts
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1148292.shtml
(Global Times, China, 2-May-2019)

-- US, China trade talks may have hit an impasse: Chinese official
media
https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/us-china-trade-talks-may-have-hit-an-impasse-chinese-official-media/1527305
(Outlook India, 2-May-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 03-May-2019 World View: Massive African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China having global effects


[Image: map1_2019_05_02.jpg]
  • ASF outbreaks in China, Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia (FAO)

A massive outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in pigs in China and
neighboring countries is threatening to spill over into the global
food supply and affect food prices. ASF is an animal disease which
cannot spread to humans, and is not to be confused with swine flu.

ASF is endemic to Africa, and has occasionally spread to Europe and
Russia, where its spread has been largely contained.

When a case was confirmed on the China-North Korea border on August 3,
2018, officials were alarmed because of China's huge pig population.
China has 440 million pigs, half the world's pig population. By
coincidence, 2019 is China's "Year of the Pig."

But apparently there was a mutation in the ASF virus that is making
things much worse than expected. Scientists had expected the virus to
spread rapidly and burn itself out. But the virus has adapted to its
new environment, and instead is exhibiting a slow and steady movement
across Asia.

Although ASF cannot replicate outside of a host, it can survive for
long periods of time without a host, which is why it’s particularly
difficult to control. The virus is hard to kill, withstanding harsh
environments, extreme weather conditions, and even persisting in meat
that’s been cooked or smoked. That means when contaminated food scraps
end up in swill, cannibalistic swine contract ASF. The contagion can
lay dormant in exported corn or grain-based feed, too, until a hungry
pig reanimates the virus, sometimes on the other side of the globe.
The virus is also variable, meaning different strains of ASF are
emerging in different areas of the world. And because the pathogen has
a gigantic genome that easily changes to fit new conditions,
veterinarians don’t have a vaccine against it. (Popular Science)

ASF has literally "gone viral." It's spread nationwide and crossed
borders to Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia. In an attempt to contain
the disease there has been massive culling of tens of millions of
pigs, and China's hog herd may decline by 30% this year.

This has already has affected food prices globally, with American
Easter hams costing the most in four years. Prices of other meats
have also been increasing, as consumer switch from pork to beef or
chicken.

China has been severely affected, since pork is a major part of the
Chinese diet. Wholesale pork prices in China are already 21% higher
than a year ago, and China will need to import substantial amounts of
pork and likely other meat and poultry to satisfy demand.

This is one more reason why China is desperate to reach an agreement
in the US-China trade talks. The question is whether they're
desperate enough to agree to the "snapback system" that I described
yesterday, that permits the US to quickly reimpose tariffs if China
cheats on its trade commitments.


--- Sources:

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / China / Pig ‘Ebola’ Virus Sends Shock
Waves Through Global Food Chain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-02/pig-ebola-virus-sends-shock-waves-through-global-food-chain
(Bloomberg, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF / African Swine Fever / The Deadly African Virus That’s Killing
China’s Pigs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-23/the-deadly-african-virus-that-s-killing-chinese-pigs-quicktake
(Bloomberg, 1-May-2019)

-- ASF / China / African swine fever has killed a million pigs—and
isn't slowing down
https://www.popsci.com/african-swine-fever-science
(Popular Science, 2-May-2019)

-- ASF situation in Asia update
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/ASF/situation_update.html
(UN Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, 2-May-2019)

-- African swine fever, Cambodia
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Reviewreport/Review?page_refer=MapFullEventReport&reportid=30032
(World Organization for Animal Health, OIE, 3-Apr-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 03-May-2019 World View: Major Chinese 'ghost town' developer JC Group collapses

Yesterday, we described how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reacted
to the financial crisis ten years ago by lending massive amounts of
money for the construction of "ghost towns" and "zombie businesses."

Now, JC Group, one of the ghost town developers, has collapsed,
essentially going into bankruptcy. And it isn't just China's
government that's losing all it's money.

Many individuals have invested their personal savings in JC Group, and
they stand to lose all their money. The minimum buy-in to invest in
JC Group was set at one million yuan or $148,400. There are an
estimated 3,800 JC Group investors who are going to lose their
investments.

So, the total amount losts by investors has not been announced, but it
appears to be at least 3800x$148400 or $564 million.

The fact that 3,800 poor slobs may have lost their life savings is
just a part of this story. The more important question is whether
this will trigger the collapse of other such developers, and whether
the Chinese government will be forced to step in and pay off these and
other investors in order to avoid risking social unrest.

The JC Group was taking part in a CCP program called "A Thousand
Charming Towns," which was suppost to create thousands of beautiful,
liveable and themed villages.

JC Group was building more than 50 of these towns, with names like
Crayfish Town, Asian Games Town, Fairyland Town, Poetry Town and Happy
Town. For example, Happy Town’s original blueprints included a sex
toy shopping street, a sex exhibition center and an “adult-only”
hotel, with a total construction cost of 10 billion yuan ($1.5
billion).

AS for Crayfish Town, here's an artist's impression from JC Group
showing what it would look like:

[Image: 1ae8be06-6bbe-11e9-994e-1d1e521ccbf6_ima...033545.jpg]
  • An artist's impression of the Crayfish Town, created by JC Group

Dear Reader, I'll bet that you would invest $148,400 of your money in
Crayfish Town, if you had the opportunity, wouldn't you?

---- Sources:


-- Ghost towns / JC Group / Wei Jie / The collapse of China’s ‘fake
towns’
https://www.inkstonenews.com/business/collapse-chinas-fake-towns/article/3008738
(Inkstone News, 3-May-2019)

-- JC Group / Wei Jie / China’s ‘charming towns’ plan turns into a
nightmare for investors, amid legal crackdown
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3008419/chinas-charming-towns-plan-turns-nightmare-investors-amid
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 1-May-2019)

-- JC Group / Wei Jie / Head of Multi-Billion Dollar Fund Empire Faces
‘Illegal Fundraising’ Investigation
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-04-29/head-of-multi-billion-dollar-fund-empire-faces-illegal-fundraising-investigation-101410135.html
(Caixin Global, Beijing, 29-Apr-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 04-May-2019 World View: Worst Israeli-Palestinian fighting in Gaza in months

The fighting between Israel and Gaza on Saturday is the worst in
several months. The following is the sequence of events so far:
  • On Friday, during the weekly border protests, two Palestinian
    military shot at Israeli soldiers, wounding two.


  • Israel responded by hitting a Hamas militant post, killing those
    two militants.


  • Two additional Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire.


  • On Saturday morning, there was a barrage of 200 missiles from
    Islamic Jihad's al-Quds Brigades in Gaza into Israel, wounding three
    Israelis.


  • Israel responded with tank fire and airstrikes, killing three
    Palestinians, including a mother and her baby daughter, according to
    Palestinians.


  • The fighting continued into Saturday evening.

This is the worst fighting in a few months. There have been missiles
and airstrikes all along, but both Israel and Hamas followed a pattern
of avoiding casualties -- the Gaza rockets would land on unpopulated
land, and the Israeli airstrikes would attack militant buildings after
the occupants were warned to evacuate.

So Saturday's fighting is the first in a while that violates this
pattern, and thereby threatens to trigger a wider war. It also
violates a "peace agreement" mediated by Egypt and the UN over a month
ago.

However, Islamic Jihad issued a statement accusing Israel of failing
to implement last month's ceasefire deal, by not loosening the
blockade of Gaza as much as promised. Islamic Jihad is also
threatening to expand its rocket attacks to Haifa in the north, to Ben
Gurion airport near Tel Aviv, and to Israel's unacknowledged nuclear
reactor in the south.


The worst fighting in recent times was the 67-day war between Israel
and Gaza in 2014. Both Israel and Hamas seem to want to avoid a
repeat of that level of fighting, at least for the time being.

This month is a chaotic time is Israel's government. Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu won the recent elections, but until now has been
unable to form a cabinet or a governing coalition.

Furthermore, the Eurovision Song Contest will take place in Israel
this year, between May 14 and May 18.

Furthermore, on May 14, Israel will be celebrating the 71st
anniversary of its founding.

----- Sources:

-- Hostilities flare up as rockets hit Israel from Gaza
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48160098
(BBC)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 05-May-2019 World View: Trump threatens sharp increase on tariffs on goods from China

Although the Trump administration has repeatedly said that the
US-China trade talks have been going well, further progress was thrown
into doubt on Sunday when president Donald Trump threatened to raise
the existing tariffs of 10% on certain Chinese goods would rise to 25%
on Friday, May 10. Other untaxed goods from China, totalling $325
billion, would also be subject to the new tariffs.

Trump issued the following tweet:

Quote: For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the
USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200
Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially
responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to
25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but
will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA
have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The
Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt
to renegotiate. No! 12:08 PM - 5 May 2019

A number of analysts have expressed concern that failure of the
US-China trade talks would cause stocks to fall. It would also have a
deleterious effect on China's economy.

---- Sources:

-- Trump threatens to raise tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48171561
(BBC)

-- Trump's tweet
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125069835044573186
(Twitter)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019

** 05-May-2019 World View: Israeli-Palestinian violence in Gaza escalates

Israel has targeted and killed a senior Hamas militant commander,
violating the pattern that I described yesterday -- to avoid
casualties in order to prevent triggering a larger war, such as the
one in 2014.

Hamas had previously violated the same pattern, as four Israelis were
killed by missiles launched into Israel from Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu
has ordered the army to continue bombing of sites in Gaza, and the
army says that it has struck hundreds of militant sites.

The assassinated Hamas commander was Hamed al-Khoudary, whose car was
targeted in an airstrike. The 34-year-old militant leader was
allegedly responsible for transferring money from Iran to terrorist
organizations in Gaza.

The violence is continuing, and it's certain that Hamas will do
something to get revenge for the killing of al-Khoudary.

An interesting side note: I heard an Israeli official on tv this
morning say something to the effect that the Eurovision Song Contest,
scheduled to take place on May 14-18 in Israel, might have to be
canceled, "because the lives of Israelis are more important that a tv
show." I got the impression that he would like to see it canceled.

---- Sources:
-- Gaza violence escalates after militants launch rocket attacks
https://www.dw.com/en/gaza-violence-escalates-after-militants-launch-rocket-attacks/a-48605797
(Deutsche Welle, 5-May-2019)