Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 07-May-2019 World View: US-China trade war has no resolution in sight Today's market selloff is being blamed on a growing realization that Trump was serious about imposing large new tariffs on Friday, meaning that a US-China trade deal will not be reached soon. There's very little confirmed information available about what the disagreement is in the US-China trade talks, but various reports say it has to do with theft of intellectual property. Incidentally, this is not a Trump-only concern. Trump is getting advice to "hang tough" from Chuck Shumer and other Democratic leaders, and there's very little criticism from other Western nations, since they've all been screwed by China's theft of intellectual property, and refusal to comply with international law and commitments it had already made in writing. More specifically, reports indicate that Chinese negotiators had agreed to end theft of intellectual property, and to put that agreement into Chinese law. Apparent Xi Jinping pulled the plug on this a few days ago, and said that the agreement wouldn't go into Chinese law, but would only be made some vague "regulation." In other words, the Chinese had no intention of abiding by their own signed agreement. In the last few months, I've seen Trump economic advisors on TV, such as Larry Kudlow and Kevin Hassett, repeatedly say that the US-China trade negotiations were going very well. I watched these statements in increasing disbelief, wondering which side was backing down -- the Chinese or the Americans. Now we can see what happened. The Chinese negotiators made concessions with regard to stealing intellectual property, and Xi Jinping pulled the plug, causing Trump to announce the new tariffs. This is the kind of thing that leads to world wars. As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts a stock market crash and global financial crisis with 100% certainty. This would begin with a full-scale panic. What's going on today is the first signs of a panic, but it could reverse tomorrow, as investors begin to calm down and decide that a delay in the US-China talks is not serious. At times like this, I like to repeat what happened in the stock market panic that occurred on October 28, 1929. This year will be the 90'th anniversary of that panic, and yet, to this day, nobody knows why the panic occurred on that particular day, or why it didn't occur a few months earlier or later. A panic had to occur, since the stock market was a huge bubble (as it is today), but the panic nonetheless was completely unexpected. The other thing to remember is that the 1929 panic was not the same as a stock market crash and, in fact, the stock market recovered in the next few days much of what it had lost. What the panic did was to put in train a long, grinding process of margin calls and bankruptcy chains, and this was the stock market crash. An investor who had borrowed money on high-risk stocks would have to sell his blue chip stocks to meet the margin calls. When one person or company went bankrupt, then its lenders were suddenly also exposed to bankruptcy. This chain of bankruptcies continued for four or five years, as the stock market fell 90%. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. "It's different this time" is a lie. The next financial crisis won't be an exact repeat of the 1929 crisis, but the general elements (stock market bubble, panic, margin calls, bankruptcy chain) will be the same. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 08-May-2019 World View: Details of US-China trade deal collapse emerge According to a new report, the current US-China trade deal crisis began late Friday last week, when China sent the Trump administration an edited version of the 150-page draft trade agreement that they had been negotiating for months. The edits reversed all of China's commitments in the areas of theft of U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation. It's becoming increasingly clear what happened. During the months of negotiations, the Chinese negotiators had made numerous commitments to end China's illegal trade practices. On Friday, China threw out all its commitments. This is from the Reuters report: Quote: "The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in The Chinese have a three-millennia belief that they have a mandate from heaven, and that you and I and everyone else in the West are barbarians and vassals. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have built their entire economy on the principle that it's OK to steal anything they want from the barbarians because, after all, we're just barbarians. I want to emphasize that the Chinese people are not at fault here. The same, identical Chinese people have thrived in Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong. The governments of Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong have been far superior to the pathetic CCP, which is committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs, is violently cracking down on Buddhists and Christians, demolishing churches and temples, and is pathetically terrified of the cartoon character Winnie the Pooh because Xi Jinping looks like him. The great Chinese people in China are being crushed and victimized by the evils of the CCP, which is why the Chinese people in Taiwan are ten times wealthier and happier than the Chinese people in China. The gloves are really coming off now. Both the Chinese and American negotiators are playing hardball. Right now, it appears that on Friday massive new tariffs will be placed on Chinese imports. China will retaliate with tariffs on American goods. Possible scenarios:
So there you go, people. Place your bets! ---- Sources: -- Exclusive: China backtracked on nearly all aspects of U.S. trade deal - sources https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-backtracking-exclusiv/exclusive-china-backtracked-on-nearly-all-aspects-of-us-trade-deal-sources-idUSKCN1SE0WJ (Reuters, 8-May-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 09-May-2019 China's sinister strategy in US-Trade talks The SCMP article that you quoted is interesting on multiple levels, because it suggests a Chinese strateby that's even more sinister than I've been assuming. Quote:> From the South China Morning Post (A Hong Kong News org) Burner Prime Wrote:> This is an example of how this event is more serious than The scenario that analysts had been describing recently was that the Chinese negotiators had been too anxious to make a deal, and so had made too many concessions, and Xi Jinping had to pull back on them. The new interpretation of events is far more sinister: The Chinese strategy was to make concessions that would never be implemented in order to get Trump to agree to a deal, and then pull back on the concessions at the last moment, when Trump would be politically forced to accept the weak deal -- and remove the tariffs with China having to make no real concessions on trade at all. The reason that this strategy is so credible is that North Korea used exactly the same strategy at the Hanoi summit. Kim Jong-un had hoped to politically force Trump to agree to remove sanctions with North Korea having to make no real concessions on denuclearization at all. It's scary how similar these two strategies are. In both cases, they seemed to believe that Trump would be forced to back down, and then they would once again have defrauded the United States in a negotiation, as both countries had done so many times in the past. In both cases, Trump has shown himself willing to be the "bad guy," and walk away, rather than accept a bad deal. However, what's different this time is that Trump has the (usually tacit) support of the international community in the West. Nobody in the West wants North Korea to have nuclear missiles, and almost every country in the West has had their trade secrets and intellectual property stolen by the Chinese. There's another interesting angle to the SCMP article. Hong Kong was a British colony from the 1850s to 1997. Starting in the 1930s with the Sino-Japanese war, China used Hong Kong as a communications channel with the outside world, to beg for money and other resources to fight the war. Hong Kong was the civilized face of China. The SCMP article suggests that Hong Kong is still being used as the civilized face of China. The article goes on at length to say that Beijing is already making changes in IP and trade law, and the article suggests that there's no real difference between Beijing's and Washington's positions, except communications difficulties, and that it should be easy to reach agreement. But the article contradicts that point when it also says that the "expansive demands from Washington's trade hawks" are delusional. Once again, this is the same as the North Korea strategy -- blame disagreements on John Bolton, in the hope of forcing Trump to compromise. And the news this morning is that North Korea has launched two more "short range projectiles," apparently believing that doing so might embarass Trump into concessions, a belief that's profoundly delusional. There's lots of interesting stuff going on here, but both sides are playing hardball, and it seems very likely that the harsh new tariffs will be implemented tomorrow, with whatever consequences they bring. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 10-May-2019 World View: Syria's Idlib: Al-Assad's assault continues, displacing 250,000 The renewed assault by Bashar al-Assad's forces, backed by Russian airstrikes, has been going on for two weeks, forcing about 200,000 people from their homes, according to various reports. Idlib is supposed to be a ceasefire "de-escalation zone," according to an agreement last year among Russia, Iran, and Turkey. However, there have been other "de-escalation zones," negotiated by the same parties, in Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and elsewhere, and Russia has ignored its own commitments, and backed al-Assad's assaults. Al-Assad has been conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of Arab Sunnis. He uses the same techniques in each region. He begins by bombing peaceful protesters, particularly women and children. As soon as someone become violent in revenge, he declares the whole community of Arab Sunnis to be "terrorists," and uses that as an excuse for full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing. The genocide is performed with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all particularly targeting women and children, as well as schools, markets, and hospitals. Idlib is the place where all the Sunni Arabs fled with their home regions were being targeted for ethnic cleansing by the regime forces of Bashar al-Assad in 2014-2018, doubling the population of Idlib from 1.5 million to over 3 million. Of the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000 or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the al-Nusra Front. Al-Assad has always said that he would attack Idlib and the three million "terrorists" living them, but he was held off by the agreement between Turkey and Russia. It's always been just a matter of time before al-Assad completely dumped the agreement. Turkey has been begging Russia to stop al-Assad from doing a full-scale assault, since there will be a massive humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of thousands or millions of people will pour across the border into Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Hundreds of thousands of the Idlib Idlib refugees will continue on into Europe, resulting in a new European migrant crisis. There have been reports that al-Assad has been targeting women and children in markets, schools and hospitals, which is his usual practice. However, there have not been any reports yet that al-Assad has used chlorine gas or Sarin gas. This will be part of the maximal assault when it begins. However, al-Assad is apparently holding back from a maximal assault for the time being, under pressure from Russia and Turkey. The purpose of the current limited assault is to regain government control over the strategic M4 and M5 highways to open the way between the Mediterranean city of Latakia with Hama and Aleppo. Turkish media says that Russia's defense minister Sergei Lavrov says that Russia is ending its airstrikes as of Thursday morning. Anything that comes out of Lavrov's mouth is generally garbage with no relation to the truth, so we'll have to see whether Russian airstrikes have really stopped. The Syrian civil war has been out of the headlines for a few months now, and a lot of people believe that it's winding down or over. But that ignores the fact that Bashar al-Assad has proven himself to be a war criminal and a psychopathic monster who takes pleasure in torture and atrocities. Al-Assad has vowed to kill all three million "terrorists" in Idlib. When he begins the maximal assault, and starts again using chlorine gas and Sarin gas, the Syrian war will be back in the headlines. Syria's civil war has been out of the headlines for a few months, but it will be back once refugees start pouring into Europe again. ---- Sources: -- Q&A: Syria's Assad sets sights on Idlib, the final showdown? https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/qa-syrias-assad-sets-sights-idlib-final-showdown-62953823 (AP, 10-May-2019) -- Syrian Government Forces Advance in NW Region Between Idlib, Hama https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/syria/2019/syria-190509-voa01.htm (Global Security, 9-May-2019) -- Assad regime attacks on Idlib kill 114, displace more than 250,000 https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/assad-regime-attacks-on-idlib-kill-114-displace-more-than-250000/ar-AABaIH6 (Qatar Tribune, 10-May-2019) -- Turkey asks Russia to halt airstrikes in Syria's Idlib http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-asks-russia-to-halt-airstrikes-in-syrias-idlib-143300 (Hurriyet, Turkey, 10-May-2019) --- Related: ** 1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181201.htm#e181201 ** 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181028.htm#e181028 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 11-May-2019 World View: Hong Kong parliament fistfight over pro-Beijing vs pro-democracy A fistfight broke out in Hong Kong's parliament on Saturday over a proposed law that would permit Hong Kong to deport anyone who breaks any law to mainland China, where he will be subject to the typical abuse of China's courts, including torture, isolation, and arbitrary executions. Beijing has been trying to get the parliament to pass the new law, but they've been unable to do so. The fistfight began because Beijing has tried to replace a pro-democracy legislator with a pro-Beijing legislator, in order to get the law passed. Since World War II, China has been repeatedly humiliated, as its citizens have remain poor and oppressed, as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and colonial Hong Kong have all had "economic miracles" that made the citizens in those counties a lot wealthier and happier than Chinese citizens. Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) slaughtered thousands of young pro-democracy protesters, the CCP has been conducting harsh violent crackdowns on anything that could be interpreted as "pro-democracy," including the violent suppression of religions. At the same time, the CCP adopted a vitriolic anti-Japan hate campaign, in order to stoke nationalism instead of pro-democracy feelings. When Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, the CCP issued "Document Number 9," which codified CCP hostility to Western values, including freedom of speech and press, as being a Western plot to undermine the CCP. Document Number 9 particularly was used for a harsh crackdown on Hong Kong media and Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations, including the jailing of many demonstrators. Under the new law, if passed, pro-democracy demonstrators would not be tried in Hong Kong, but would be deported to mainland China, where they could simply be thrown into a pit and forgotten. China does have a problem is that a lot of Western business is done through Hong Kong because it's the civilized face of China. As China continues to crack down on Hong Kong, it will become as violent and poor as the rest of China, which will make it far less useful to China as a civilized gateway. ----- Sources: -- Hong Kong lawmakers scuffle in parliament https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/hong-kong-lawmakers-scuffle-in-parliament (Guardian/AP) -- Document Number 9 http://www.chinafile.com/document-9-chinafile-translation (China File, Document Number 9, 8-Nov-2013) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2019 ** 11-May-2019 World View: Major terrorist attack in China-run Gwardar port in Pakistan
A terror attack by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) on the luxury Pearl-Continental hotel in Gwadar port in the province of Balochistan in Pakistan was mostly foiled on Saturday. Three gunmen shot and killed a security guard who challenged them, but a quick response by Pakistan army and navy soldiers apparently prevented further murders. The three gunmen themselves were shot dead. Gwardar seaport is the endpoint of a massive infrastructure project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also called One Belt One Road (OBOR) or "the new Silk Road." CPEC will be a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests. It's expected to cost $55-60 billion and take 20 years to complete. Balochistan is Pakistan's biggest province, and also its poorest. Most of the $55-60 billion investment will benefit the wealthy Punjab and Gilgit Baltistan provinces, rather than Balochistan. Furthermore, the seaport project has closed off miles of coastline to the indigenous ethnic Baloch people in communities that have been fishing in the natural Gwardar port for centuries, and depend on fishing to feed their families. Finally, as is typical of all of China's BRI projects, instead of hiring local workers, China will bring in tens of thousands of Chinese workers to do the work, get the money, and create a Chinese enclave, displacing indigenous Baloch people. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has been conducting regular terrorist attacks in the region. Saturday's attack on the Pearl-Continental hotel was the most brazen because the gunmen were able to penetrate multiple layers of security to reach it. Apparently the only reason that a lot more residents weren't hurt is because the security forces responded quickly and because there were few residents living there at the current time. ------ Sources: -- Gwadar PC hotel stormed by militants, security guard martyred https://www.geo.tv/latest/237047-gwadar-pearl-continental-hotel-stormed-by-armed-attackers-security-operation-underway (Geo TV, Pakistan) -- Pakistan / Forces stave off Mumbai-style terrorist attack on Gwadar hotel https://tribune.com.pk/story/1970807/1-three-gunmen-enter-gwadar-hotel-shootout-way/ (Express Tribune, Pakistan) -- Pakistan hotel attack HIGHLIGHTS: All three gunmen killed in shootout, says Balochistan Home Minister https://indianexpress.com/article/pakistan/hotel-attack-live-updates-gwadar-balochistan-5723056/ (Indian Express) -- Gunmen attack hotel in Pakistan's Gwadar, kill security guard https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/gunmen-attack-hotel-pakistan-port-city-gwadar-190511134034253.html (Al Jazeera) -- National Party / Pakistan / Balochistan has right over Gwadar Port operations: NP https://tribune.com.pk/story/1961790/1-balochistan-right-gwadar-port-operations-np/ (Express Tribunes, Pakistan, 29-Apr-2019) -- Pakistan / Will China’s Plans for Gwadar Destroy Fishermen’s Livelihood? https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/will-chinas-plans-for-gwadar-destroy-fishermens-livelihood/ (Diplomat, 3-Apr-2019) -- Gunmen Storm Hotel in China-Run Pakistani Gwadar Port https://www.voanews.com/a/gunmen-storm-hotel-in-china-run-pakistani-gwadar-port/4913414.html (VOA) ---- Related: ** 6-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181106.htm#e181106 ** 22-Dec-18 World View -- China's CPEC project in Pakistan turns military, marginalizing Balochistan ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181222.htm#e181222 ** 12-Dec-17 World View -- Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e171212.htm#e171212 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 05-11-2019 Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has been posting to both his online newsletter and twitter regarding Chinese/U.S. trade. It seems that the Trump administration is contemplating imposing higher tariffs than before, for China being uncooperative. I understand that Trump has thought of selling more stuff to China, but the Chinese seem to want a one sided relationship. So in that respect I don't think that Trump will get what he wants. On the other hand, I don't think that the Chinese grasp how little support for globalization now exists in America. Think about it-many Americans dislike Trump, but there has no big uproar regarding tariffs. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-12-2019 ** 12-May-2019 US-China trade talks (05-11-2019, 06:57 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has been posting to both his online Yes, Trump is indeed threatening to increase the tariffs further. The news this evening is that everyone in Washington and Asia are wondering what China is going to do to retaliate, but except for some nationalistic bluster from the Global Times newspaper, China has been almost completely silent. There's a feeling that the Chinese are totally at a loss of what to do. They've gotten away with so much for so many decades. It's quite likely that they were certain that they would get away with simply editing down the 150-page draft trade agreement so it would be completely unenforceable. It's quite likely that the Chinese were confident that the Trump administration would simply whine and complain but still go along with all the edits, which is exactly what the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations would have done. It's quite likely that they were enormously shocked when Trump called their bluff. It's amazing how much support or tacit support that Trump is getting -- not only from Shumer and the Democrats, but also from other Western nations, who are sick and tired of dealing China's dishonest, contemptuous trade practices. There was even a farmer interviewed by the BBC who was losing money from the tariffs, but said that it had to be done. The level of hostility to China in America and in Western countries is growing rapidly, because of the trade and Huawei issues, and because of the contemptuous way that China treats everyone. On the other hand, someone on Bloomberg tv this evening (morning in Asia) has pointed out that the tariffs depend on shipping dates, and it takes about a month for goods from China to reach America, so the tariffs won't really be felt for a month. But there's no doubt that this is a very deep and serious split between the US and China. This is the kind of situation that can lead to tit-for-tat responses that spiral into war. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-13-2019 ** 13-May-2019 AEI: How boomers screwed millenials for their own comfort From an e-mail invitation: Quote:> Description RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-13-2019 ** 13-May-2019 World View: China's trade retaliation shows a change in attitude
China's media are reflecting an increasingly belligerent response to the US-China trade negotiations, which is more often being called a "trade war." The strategy change is from deception and subterfuge to belligerence, threats and confrontation. China announced a 5-25% tariff on 5,100 American products. According to Global Times: Quote: "The measured but firm response from Chinese officials The threatened tariffs will hurt small pockets of Americans, but will have little effect on the economy as a whole.
This represents a fairly standard Chinese transition from deception and subterfuge to confrontation, threats and belligerence:
China and North Korea are very contemptuous of the West, believing us to be barbarians that they can easily manipulate and threaten. That attitude worked with Clinton, Bush and Obama, but is being confronted by Trump. America has no choice but to confront China's deception and subterfuge, because doing so would be "appeasement" in the sense that Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler. Appeasement is the road to war. Indeed, Trump is receiving support from Chuck Shumer and the Democrats, as well as from the international community. There is an increasing acceptance of the fact that China has been getting away with lying, fraud and dishonesty for decades, and someone has to stand up to them. But confrontation is also the road to war. As I've said many times, war is 100% certain, no matter what Trump does, but I'm not going to criticize Trump for steps he takes to try to prevent a world war, even if preventing a world war is impossible. What we're seeing is a standard tit-for-tat pattern that leads to a world war. China will not pull back, because it's bent on a war of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan, and Trump is not going to pull back because doing so would be appeasement, and would do no good anyway.
There was a sharp selloff on Wall Street on Monday. In one sense it was a great overreaction to China's tariff announcement. However, as I've been writing for a long time, the stock market is in a huge bubble, and there's no way to predict what event will trigger the inevitable panic that will lead to a full-scale crash. Similarly, there's no way to predict what event will trigger a military clash that will lead to a full-scale world war. ---- Sources: -- China hits back at US tariffs http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149756.shtml (Global Times, China, 13-May-2019) -- Beijing retaliates to America’s new tariffs with fresh taxes on US food, machinery and consumer goods, despite president Trump warning them not to https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/may/13/trade-war-investors-china-retaliation-us-tariffs-growth-stock-markets-business-live (Guardian, London, 13-May-2019) -- Trump Says He'll Meet China's Xi Amid Deepening Rift Over Trade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-12/trump-s-china-trade-talks-shift-into-slower-gear-as-trust-eroded (Bloomberg, 13-May-2019) -- Global markets fall as China hits back at US with new import tariffs https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/13/china-hits-at-us-with-tariffs-on-60bn-of-products-trade-war-donald-trump (Guardian, London, 13-May-2019) -- China / Social credit system to restore morality http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149741.shtml (Global Times, China, 13-May-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-16-2019 ** 16-May-2019 World View: Mideast tensiions grow after attacks attributed to Iran
During the last week, there have been several acts of "sabotage" on Saudi Arabia and UAE targets, including the following:
No one has claimed credit for Sunday's attack, but it's believed that they were perpetrated by Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) marine force unit. The logic behind the attacks is that they follow the restoration of American sanctions and the end of waivers to the sanctions, with the result that Iran's oil exports are being severely reduced. Saudi Arabia has promised to increase oil exports to compensate for the reduced Iranian exports. The sabotage attacks would then be Iran's retaliation against the Saudis. Even before these attacks, the Trump administration had announced the deployment of two US aircraft carriers -- the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS John C. Stennis -- to the region, accompanied by 10 warships, as a show of force, operating with the US Sixth Fleet in conjunction with allied navies. There were also uncomfirmed and denied reports of deployment of 120,000 soldiers to the region. At the same time, the US, Britain, and some EU countries have withdrawn unnecessary personal from embassies and legations in Iraq, apparently out of fear of Iranian terrorist attacks. In the 1800s, Iran was thoroughly humiliated by losing border wars with Russia and Britain, so in Iran's major wars in the last century -- the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1989 -- Iran did not attack any other nation, and takes pride in not having done so. However, Iran has been increasingly active in using proxies, especially the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as its own IRGC forces, to perform terrorist acts against Saudi, America and Israeli target, as well as full-scale participation in the Syria war, supporting Bashar al-Assad. A war between the US and Iran is highly unlikely. News reports of questionable veracity claim that John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are encouraging Donald Trump to invade Iran. Whatever Bolton and Pompeo think, Trump has no intention of invading Iran. Furthermore, through his knowledge of Generational Dynamics passed on to him by Steve Bannon, Trump would be aware that will be an American ally. Furthermore, Iran itself is in a generational Awakening era, with younger generations firmly opposed to foreign wars. Nonetheless, Iran's hardline leaderhip has no reluctance to conduct terror attacks and proxy attacks on its perceived enemies, even if such attacks are not expected to trigger a war. Late news is that Saudi Arabia is retaliating for the Houthi attacks by increased missile attacks on sites in Yemen's capital city Sanaa, with civilians as collateral damage. ----- Sources: -- Saudi Energy Minister says two pump stations on the East-West pipeline were attacked https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=1923830#1923830 (Saudi Press Agency, 14-May-2019) -- Germany, Netherlands suspend Iraq training missions https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/germany-netherlands-suspend-iraq-training-missions-190515181523703.html (Al Jazeera, 15-May-2019) -- UK raises threat level for personnel in Iraq due to 'heightened risk from Iran' https://news.sky.com/story/uk-raises-threat-level-for-personnel-in-iraq-due-to-heightened-risk-from-iran-11721363 (Sky News, 16-May-2019) -- USS Abraham Lincoln deploys opposite Syria, US envoy to Russia aboard https://www.debka.com/uss-abraham-lincoln-deploys-opposite-syria-us-envoy-to-russia-aboard/ (Debka, 11-May-2019) -- Trump, frustrated by advisers, is not convinced the time is right to attack Iran https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-frustrated-by-advisers-is-not-convinced-the-time-is-right-to-attack-iran/2019/05/15/bbf5835e-1fbf-4035-a744-12799213e824_story.html (Washington Post, 15-May-2019) -- Here's how you'll know we're about to go to war with Iran — right now, we're not https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/heres-how-youll-know-were-about-to-go-to-war-with-iran-right-now-were-not (Washington Examiner, 16-May-2019) -- The Golan is next after Iran hit 3 Gulf oil targets, say Rev Guards associates https://www.debka.com/the-golan-is-next-after-iran-hit-3-gulf-oil-targets-say-rev-guards-associates/ (Debka, 15-May-2019) -- Second attack on Gulf oil: Drones drop explosives on two Saudi oil pumping stations https://www.debka.com/second-attack-on-gulf-oil-drones-drop-explosives-on-two-saudi-oil-pumping-stations/ (Debka, 14-May-2019) -- Iran’s special marine unit sabotaged tankers. Fujairah was outside US, Saudi, UAE purview https://www.debka.com/irans-special-marine-unit-sabotaged-tankers-fujairah-was-outside-us-saudi-uae-purview/ (Debka, 13-May-2019) ---- Book: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East," by John J. Xenakis https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-17-2019 ** 17-May-2019 World View: Turkey desperate to halt Syria-Russia assault on Idlib The violence in Syria is increasing to levels not seen in almost a year, as Russia and the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad have increased their bombing of civilians in Idlib province. All the worst signs are back. According to the United Nations, in the last three weeks Syria and Russia have destroyed 17 schools and 20 hospitals and medical facilities. More than 180,000 newly displaced people have fled their homes and moved to camps, but al-Assad has been targeting these IDP camps -- if you want to commit mass slaughter and genocide, it's easier if you can kill them all together in camps. More than 80,000 people are sitting under trees or in open fields with no protection from sun and rain. There haven't yet been reports of al-Assad once again using chemical weapons -- chlorine and Sarin gas -- but presumably that's coming soon. There are three million people in Idlib, mostly refugees from al-Assad's violence in other parts of Syria, and al-Assad has declared them all to be terrorists, with the intention of killing them all. Turkey is desperate to get al-Assad to stop this. Idlib is on the border with Turkey, and Turkey is already hosting 3.5 million refugees that fled from al-Assad's violence in the past. Even though Turkey has closed the border, Al-Assad's assault on Idlib could cause a million or more to push across the border into Turkey anyway. As I wrote last week, Turkey begged Russia to end the airstrikes, and Russia's defense minister Sergei Lavrov said that the airstrikes had ended on May 10. But anything that comes out of Lavrov's mouth is total garbage with no relation to the truth, and indeed the airstrikes have continued. Since then Turkey has once again begged the Russians to end the airstrikes. On Monday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke on the phone with Russia's president Vladimir Putin, and Putin very sweetly and kindly offered to form a committee to discuss the matter. Turkey's foreign minister Mevlüt ÇavuSoglu says that the airstrikes are preventing work on the UN's project on drafting a new Syrian constitution: Quote: "This aggressive attitude of the regime needs to This is so laughably ridiculous and pathetic, even by the very low standards of typical international politics. Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite genocidal psychopath and war criminal who is exterminating the Alawite's historic enemies, the Arab Sunnis, and has no intention of stopping until he's through with Idlib. Anyone who believes that al-Assad would agree to have a UN committee draft a new constitution for Syria belongs in a mental institution. --- Sources: -- Risk grows of ‘catastrophic humanitarian fallout’ in Syria’s Idlib, https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/05/1038681 (United Nations) -- Turkey steps up efforts to stop all-out assault on Syria’s Idlib https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/05/turkey-intensifies-idlib-diplomacy.html (Al Monitor) -- Turkey, Russia agree to form joint committee for Syria’s Idlib http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-russia-agree-to-form-joint-committee-for-syrias-idlib-143455 (Hurriyet, Turkey) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-18-2019 ** 18-May-2019 World View: Australia's climate change activists suffer a surprise election rout Apparently nobody saw this coming. The Labor Party, headed by Bill Shorten, was expected by everyone to win the majority of seats in Saturday's nationwide elections in Australia, but instead, the winner was the conservative Liberal-National Coalition, led by Scott Morrison, according to exit polls. This is being compared to the unexpected win by Donald Trump in the 2016 election, where many polls turned out to be wrong. According to analysts, there were two major issues that led to the shock result. One was that the Labor party was promising to raise taxes and spend a lot more on social programs. But the major issue that led to the Liberal-National Coalition victory, according to analysts, was that the Labor Party was promising to implement the same sort of loony tunes climate change agenda that we're always hearing about in the United States and Europe. In Australia's case, the biggest loss to Labor were a number of seats in Queensland, which has a lot of coal mines. Normally, coal miners vote overwhelming for Labor, but in this case, they believed that Labor's climate change activist agenda would cost them their jobs, so they switched sides. The greatest shock of this election is that everyone got it wrong because the polls got it so wrong. And for those people interested in participating in forecasting contests, this is a good example from Chaos Theory that shows why neither polls nor Generational Dynamics can predict election results. --- Sources: -- Australian election: Queensland drives a stake through Labor's hopes https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/18/australian-election-queensland-labor-hopes (Guardian, London, 18-May-2019) -- Adani / One word that sums up Labor’s election disaster in Queensland https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/one-word-that-sums-up-labors-election-disaster-in-queensland/news-story/79f0adfb76eea5a0c0210d038f66b2ca (News.com, Australia) -- 2019 Australia election: Morrison celebrates 'miracle' win https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-48305001 (BBC) -- How Australia’s Election Could Save the World (But Won’t) https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-australias-election-could-save-the-world-but-wont/2019/05/16/c0eee7e8-7826-11e9-a7bf-c8a43b84ee31_story.html (Bloomberg, 17-May-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 05-18-2019 (05-13-2019, 09:25 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-May-2019 AEI: How boomers screwed millenials for their own comfort Thanks for mentioning this, will pass it on. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-19-2019 ** 19-May-2019 China's Foreign Investment Law imposes draconian controls When China passed its new Foreign Investment Law in March, I didn't pay much attention since the media described it as "a move widely seen as an effort to facilitate US trade talks." According to the news stories at the time, the new law would make it easier for foreign owned companies to do business in China by making them equivalent to Chinese companies. However, a subsequent analysis of this law shows that it has the opposite effect. By making foreign owned businesses equivalent to Chinese companies, it means that foreign owned businesss are exposed to the full force of the CCP-military control. According to an analysis in the China Law blog: Quote: We wrote how we were not at all impressed with China’s This law was passed as the US-China trade talks were being negotiated, and we now know that the Chinese were making agreements that they had no intention of committing to. As we've been reporting, the Chinese reneged on all the agreements just before the final agreement was to be signed, apparently expecting that political pressures in the US would force Trump to accept the changes. This follows a decades-old pattern by the Chinese (and North Koreans) of making agreements and then ignoring their obligations, while demanding that others scrupulously meet their commitments, as a standard pattern. Passing the new Foreign Investment Law is part of the strategy of subterfuge this time. The fact that Trump is standing up to the Chinese, and that Trump is receiving a lot of support from the international community and from Democrats, is apparently quite a shock to the CCP, since it means that the CCP's entire negotiating strategy has collapsed. A G-20 meeting is scheduled for Osaka on June 28-29, and Trump and Xi Jinping are supposed to meet at that time. Unless some surprise breakthrough occurs in the US-China trade talks, that meeting probably will not be held. On Saturday, China's foreign minister Wang Yi spoke to US secretary of state Mike Pompeo on the phone. The purpose of the phone call was to put further political pressure on the US to back down in the trade talks. The media is reported Wang's statements as a "veiled threat." China's readout of the call is on the Foreign Ministry web site. The following is a machine translation: Quote: Wang Yi phone call with Mike Pompeo (translation) The call came several days after Trump signed an executive order that could block Huawei doing business with American companies. Both China and the US are becoming more belligerent in tit-for-tat escalations. China has absolutely no intention of agreeing to a fair US-China trade deal, and the terms of the Foreign Investment law show what that means. China will not pull back, because it's bent on a war of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan, and Trump is not going to pull back because doing so would be appeasement, and would do no good anyway. ----- Sources: -- China foreign investment law: Bill aims to ease global concerns https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47578883 (BBC, 15-Mar-2019) -- New China Foreign Investment Law: Not Good News https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/04/new-china-foreign-investment-law-not-good-news.html (China Law Blog, 23-Apr-2019) -- China’s Wang Tells Pompeo U.S. Must Negotiate on Equal Basis https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-18/chinese-foreign-minister-wang-u-s-s-pompeo-spoke-by-phone (Bloomberg, 18-May-2015) -- Wang Yi phone call with Mike Pompeo (translation) https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/t1664649.shtml (China's Foreign Ministry, translation in article, 18-May-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-22-2019 ** 22-May-2019 World View: Britain's Theresa May on her last days as Brexit disaster continues Andrea Leadsom, who is Theresa May's second in command as leader of Britain's House of Commons, resigned from May's cabinet an hour ago. Her complaint: She objects to the crass weakness shown by May in making concessions to Labor in order to get a compromise Brexit deal. Making the concessions was a waste of time anyway, since Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said that they weren't enough concessions, so he rejected them as well. The continuing Brexit disaster is a perfect example of what happens when Gen-Xers are in charge of running things. In the 1990s, the world was being run by World War II survivors, mostly Silents. Those leaders knew how to negotiate and compromise. Today, the world is being run by Generation-Xers, backed up by millennial crazies like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (OAC), who do not have the vaguest clue how to negotiate and compromise, and consider knowledge and experience to be worthless baggage, rather than something of value. So we see this spectacle of Britain's House of Commons with everybody shouting at everyone, with no compromise in sight, or even a willingness to compromise. The same kind of spectacle is occurring in Washington, where the Democrats completely humiliated themselves by demanding a two-year Russia collusion investigation that produced a report that didn't meet their demands, so they're pursuing dozens more investigations to try to get the conclusion they do want. We've been reading for decades that SAT scores have been falling, and there are news stories now that many students are graduating from college without even basic skills. OAC, who is one of the stupidest people around, is the poster child for one of these college graduates. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what happens when Gen-Xers and Millennials are in charge. Many of them are good people, but most of them appear to be complete idiots. No wonder the world is headed for a world war. As for Brexit, my expectation continues to be that Britain will leave the EU with no deal, because that's the only option that doesn't require anyone to agree with or compromise with anyone else. Theresa May might resign today or this week, or she may wait until week after next, given that Donald Trump will be visiting London next week to commemorate WW II. Whoever replaces Theresa May will face exactly the same problems -- Gen-Xers and Millennials who are too dumb to know how to negotiate or compromise. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 05-22-2019 My impression is that the Chinese government is determined to have a one sided relationship with the United States. On the other hand, I understand that Trump wants to sell more stuff to China. I suspect that Trump will be disappointed-the Chinese will weasel out of attempts to change their behavior. On the other hand, I doubt that the Chinese will see a return to pre-tariff conditions. Quoting from The Absent Super Power (Peter Zeihan tells this better than I can): "...the isolationist trickle I detected in American politics has deepened and expanded into a raging river.... "...a populist, isolationist, anti-trade bent has insinuated itself into American politics on both the Left and Right..." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 05-22-2019 (05-22-2019, 02:48 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: My impression is that the Chinese government is determined to have a one sided relationship with the United States. I read a great critique of Trump's trade war as stupid on tactics, totally lacking in strategy, but something that needed to be done. China has been riding the "developing nation" hobby horse far longer than they deserved to ride it. Add their great plans for world leadership, but also their weaknesses. They are already showing their hand on their one-sided view of trade and political relationships. What happens if the world decides that China is just too risky to have as a partner on really important things, and too domineering on everything else, and decamps for ABC (Anywhere But China) for making their things, great and small. This can get really messy really fast. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-23-2019 ** 21-May-2019 World View: Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks Thanks to China's new Foreign Investment Law and the apparently complete collapse of the US-China trade negotiations, new investment opportunities are opening up in China's neighbors, especially Vietnam, but care must be taken to reduce risks. China passed its Foreign Investment Law in March. It allows any Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official to visit a foreign-owned business and demand copies of all confidential company business records and company data, as well as its source code and all other intellectual property. Compliance is required. US and Chinese trade negotiators had reached a 150-page written agreement that removed all of these regulations. US trade negotiators had thought that they had an agreement with the Chinese negotiators that threw out all these onerous conditions. But late in the evening, Friday May 3, Washington received the latest edits from their Chinese counterparts that completely reneged on all of Beijing's commitments. It's now believed that Beijing never had any intention of honoring the its commitments, but expected that political pressure would force President Donald Trump to accept the watered-down agreement anyway. Instead, Trump angrily announced a new rounds of tariffs and restrictions on Huawei. It's believed to be quite a shock to Beijing that Trump is receiving wide support from the international community and Democrats in Washington to stand up to China, at least for the time being. China will not back down from its trade model that uses subterfuge, extortion, and ignoring its commitments and obligations, and Trump cannot back down because to do so would be appeasement, and would do no good anyway. And so the US-China trade negotiations have apparently completely collapsed. China and the US have entered a period of tit-for-tat escalations of trade restrictions, including higher tariffs and blocking certain types of sales and business transactions. **** Businesses shifting production to Vietnam The collapse of the US-China trade talks is shaking up all of Asia, and there are certainly going to be winners and losers. Vietnam is hoping to be one of the major winners, as businesses look for countries to which to shift their manufacturing out of China, in order to avoid the US tariffs. Vietnam also has a young, ambitious labor force, with two-thirds of the population under age 35. Just as the West had its "baby boom" after World War II, Vietnam had its own baby boom after the extremely bloody civil war between North and South Vietnam in the 1970s, and those babies are now of working age. Furthermore, labor costs are a fraction of what they are in neighboring countries. According to one estimate, labor costs in Vietnam are half those of China, with the same worker productivity. Because of the US-China trade dispute, many companies are considering moving their manufacturing facilities from China to Vietnam, since exports from Vietnam would not be subject to the US tariffs. Vietnam was flat on its back after the 1970s wars, but the economy has changed substantially in the last decade or so. For example, fifteen years ago Vietnam imported almost all the food it consumed, but today Vietnam is in the top two exporters of rice and coffee and exports a lot of seafood worldwide, mainly to China and Hong Kong. *** North vs South Vietnam Those wanting to make more direct investments in Vietnam should distinguish between the the North and the South, because they have two very different cultures, and in many ways they're like two different countries. North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally populated by ethnic Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These ethnic differences resulted in one crisis war after another over the centuries. The country was united by the Tay-Son rebellion (1771-1790), the most celebrated military event in Vietnamese history, ending in a brilliant battle in 1789 where the Vietnamese troops repelled a much larger Chinese army. The North and South remained technically united through the French colonial period, until Ho Chi Minh founded the Vietnam Communist Party and drove the French out of North Vietnam in 1956. The North and the South went through bloody civil war (America's "Vietnam war") that united the two regions under the North Vietnamese communists. However, although the war has ended, there's still a great deal of animosity between the North and the South. Furthermore, after the war ended, Vietnam followed up with wars against Cambodia, and then a border war with China. After the 1970s wars, the Communist government in Hanoi applied Communist restrictions on businesses in the South, with the continued use of wartime planning mechanisms that emphasized output targets and paid little heed to production. In 1986, Hanoi adopted the Doi Moi economic reforms, with a significant effect on the south, making it the engine for Vietnam’s industrial growth. *** Moving to North Vietnam after the US-China negotiations Companies moving their production facilities from China to Vietnam to evade US tariffs are selecting sites for convenience, in North Vietnam close to China's border. The Hanoi government is encouraging investments from China, but North Vietnamese public in general is opposed. Critics argue that Chinese projects exploit cheap labor and minerals, while polluting the environment and landing the locals in debt. Vietnamese hostility toward China is great for a number of reasons. In the late 1970s, after the Vietnam civil war, there was an extremely bloody border war between China and Vietnam that left a lot of dead but was otherwise inconclusive. More important, China has illegally annexed the South China Sea, including regions that historically belonged to Vietnam. China's navy has even attacked Vietnamese fishing boats in Vietnam's own territorial waters. In 2014, thousands of anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam, furious over China's installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea historically claimed by Vietnam, turned violent and torched a number of factories in a southern Vietnam industrial park. It was Chinese factories that were the nominal targets, but the angry mob also attacked properties owned by Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan. Public opposition last year to Chinese investments became focused when thousands of people filled the streets of several major cities across Vietnam in June, 2018. They were protesting a proposal to create three "economic zones" which would give special business and trade privileges to foreign investors. They were particularly objecting to a proposal to allow 99 year leases by foreign investors, which allow the Chinese to set up Chinese enclaves that would remain forever. The Vietnamese public strongly opposed the economic zones. So far, public pressure has prevented the Communist government in Hanoi from gaining approval of the economic zones. *** Investing in South Vietnam -- Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC or Saigon) Those who wish to invest in South Vietnam should focus on the city of Saigon, which was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City or HCMC by the Communists after the 1970s civil war. Last year HCMC attracted foreign investment of over $7 billion, 22% of the country’s total. HCMC is experiencing a major real estate boom, thanks to low property prices. However, the disproportionate investment in real estate is raising concerns. Foreign investment money is pouring into Saigon for real estate, but not so much for industries. During the first four months of 2019, real estate accounted for 46.8% of foreign investment, with little going for industries such as manufacturing or agricultural processing. In response, the HCMC People's Committee chairman Le Thanh Liem has called for $53.8 billion in foreign invesments, focusing on nine areas, including transport, infrastructure, agriculture, commerce-service, education, and healthcare. 1,000 hectares of land would be earmarked for industrial purposes to attract investors. --- Sources: -- Vietnam's Booming Economy Offers Investment Opportunities http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/181734/vietnams-booming-economy-offers-investment-opportunities.aspx (Morningstar, 22-Feb-2019) -- Industries in Vietnam http://factsanddetails.com/southeast-asia/Vietnam/sub5_9g/entry-3477.html (Facts and Details, 2014) -- Top 4 ETFs for Investing in Vietnam https://www.investopedia.com/articles/etfs/top-vietnam-etfs/ (Investopedia, 29-Apr-2019) -- How Will Foreign Investment Change Vietnam’s Economy? https://www.voanews.com/a/how-will-foreign-investment-change-vietnam-s-economy-/4846702.html (VOA, 25-Mar-2019) -- New China Foreign Investment Law: Not Good News https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/04/new-china-foreign-investment-law-not-good-news.html (China Law, 23-Apr-2019) -- Saigon / HCMC / Chinese Get Chances to Invest in Vietnam Despite Political Rifts https://www.voanews.com/a/vietnam-and-chinese-investments/4703661.html (VOA, 17-Dec-2018) -- Saigon /HCMC / Vietnam, with its low property prices, has become a new treasure hunting ground for Hong Kong and China buyers https://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2147299/vietnam-its-low-property-prices-has-become-new-treasure (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 23-May-2019) -- Saigon / HCMC / Big real estate developments and infrastructure plans make Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam’s most lively city https://www.webuildvalue.com/en/reportage/a-new-skyline-for-old-saigon.html (We Build Value, 13-Feb-2019) -- Growth quality concerns over disproportionate investment in Saigon real estate https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/industries/growth-quality-concerns-over-disproportionate-investment-in-saigon-real-estate-3921792.html (Vietnam Express, 13-May-2019) -- HCMC wants $54 billion foreign investment https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/hcmc-wants-54-billion-foreign-investment-3920629.html (Vietnam Express, 8-May-2019) -- Saigon / HCMC / The Hot New Market for Luxury Property Is Vietnam https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-18/manhattan-luxury-comes-to-one-of-asia-s-hottest-property-markets (Bloomberg, 18-Feb-2019) -- How can Vietnam avoid becoming China’s dirty industrial backyard? https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3009416/how-can-vietnam-avoid-becoming-chinas-dirty-industrial-backyard (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-May-2019) -- The spoils of trade war: Asia’s winners and losers in US-China clash https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3010733/spoils-trade-war-asias-winners-and-losers-us-china-clash (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 28-May-2019) -- FAQs About The Special Economic Zones and Vietnam’s SEZ Draft Bill https://www.thevietnamese.org/2018/08/faqs-about-the-special-economic-zones-and-vietnams-sez-draft-bill/ (The Vietnamese, 28-Aug-2018) -- Public criticism pressures Vietnam to back down on new economic zones https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11154-Public-criticism-pressures-Vietnam-to-back-down-on-new-economic-zones (China Dialog, 26-Mar-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 05-23-2019 Moving to Vietnam to avoid tariffs will likely turn out to be a short term tactic. Americans will eventually notice (we aren't entirely stupid), and the trade war will expand in its geographic spread. |