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Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version

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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-02-2019

(07-02-2019, 09:40 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: On the other hand, many of the young protesters on Monday were
expressing concern that the "one country, two systems" policy is
scheduled to end in 1947, well within the expected lives of
the protesters.

Surely you mean 2047.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-02-2019

(07-02-2019, 02:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(07-02-2019, 09:40 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: On the other hand, many of the young protesters on Monday were
expressing concern that the "one country, two systems" policy is
scheduled to end in 1947, well within the expected lives of
the protesters.

Surely you mean 2047.

Thanks!

3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks - John J. Xenakis - 07-02-2019

*** 3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks
  • Business opportunities in Vietnam
  • North vs South Vietnam
  • Doing Business in North Vietnam after the US-China negotiations
  • Doing business in South Vietnam -- Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC or Saigon)

****
**** Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks
****

[Image: g140514b.jpg]
Anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam in 2014 (AFP)

Thanks to China's new Foreign Investment Law and the apparently
complete collapse of the US-China trade negotiations, companies doing
business in China are now considering moves to China's neighbors,
especially Vietnam.

China passed its Foreign Investment Law in March. It allows any
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official to visit a foreign-owned
business with offices in China and demand copies of all confidential
company business records and company data, as well as its source code
and all other intellectual property. Compliance is required.

US and Chinese trade negotiators had reached a 150-page written
agreement that removed all of these regulations.

US trade negotiators had thought that they had an agreement with the
Chinese negotiators that threw out all these onerous conditions. But
late in the evening, Friday May 3, Washington received the latest
edits from their Chinese counterparts that completely reneged on all
of Beijing's commitments. It's now believed that Beijing never had
any intention of honoring the its commitments, but expected that
political pressure would force President Donald Trump to accept the
watered-down agreement anyway. Instead, Trump angrily announced a new
rounds of tariffs and restrictions on Huawei. It's believed to be
quite a shock to Beijing that Trump is receiving wide support from the
international community and Democrats in Washington to stand up to
China, at least for the time being. China will not back down from its
trade model that uses subterfuge, extortion, and ignoring its
commitments and obligations, and Trump cannot back down because to do
so would be appeasement, and would do no good anyway.

And so the US-China trade negotiations have mostly collapsed, although
the talks may be revived as a result of last week's meeting between
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

****
**** Business opportunities in Vietnam
****

The collapse of the US-China trade talks is shaking up all of Asia,
and there are certainly going to be winners and losers. Vietnam is
hoping to be one of the major winners, as businesses look for
countries to which to shift their manufacturing out of China, in order
to avoid the US tariffs.

Vietnam’s economy today is one of the fastest-growing and most vibrant
in the world. GDP grew at 7% in 2018, with similar growth forecast for
2019.

Vietnam also has a young, ambitious labor force, with two-thirds of
the population under age 35. Just as the West had its "baby boom"
after World War II, Vietnam had its own baby boom after the extremely
bloody generational crisis civil war between North and South Vietnam
in the 1970s, and those babies are now of working age.

Furthermore, labor costs are a fraction of what they are in
neighboring countries. According to one estimate, labor costs in
Vietnam are half those of China, with the same worker productivity.

Because of the US-China trade dispute, many companies are considering
moving their manufacturing facilities from China to Vietnam, since
exports from Vietnam would not be subject to the US tariffs.

For example, China's wireless earphone maker GoerTek has expressed an
intent to move production to Vietnam, to avoid the tariffs, because
labor is cheap, and because Vietnam is close by. Taiwan's massive
tech firm Hon Hai Precision Industry Company, better known as Foxconn,
has begun moving its production to Vietnam in recent months.

Vietnam was flat on its back after the 1970s wars, but the economy has
changed substantially in the last decade or so. For example, fifteen
years ago Vietnam imported almost all the food it consumed, but today
Vietnam is in the top two exporters of rice and coffee and exports a
lot of seafood worldwide, mainly to China and Hong Kong.

****
**** North vs South Vietnam
****

Those wanting to do business in Vietnam should distinguish between the
the North and the South, because they have two very different
cultures, and in many ways they're like two different countries.

North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally populated by ethnic
Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was populated by
Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. These ethnic
differences resulted in one North-South crisis civil war after another
over the centuries.

The country was united by the Tay-Son rebellion (1771-1790), the most
celebrated military event in Vietnamese history, ending in a brilliant
battle in 1789 where the Vietnamese troops repelled a much larger
Chinese army. The North and South remained technically united through
the French colonial period, until Ho Chi Minh founded the Vietnam
Communist Party and drove the French out of North Vietnam in 1956.

The North and the South went through bloody civil war (America's
"Vietnam war") that united the two regions under the North Vietnamese
communists. However, although the war has ended, there's still a
great deal of animosity between the North and the South. Furthermore,
after the war ended, Vietnam followed up with wars against Cambodia,
and then a border war with China.

After the 1970s wars, the Communist government in Hanoi applied
Communist restrictions on businesses in the South, with the continued
use of wartime planning mechanisms that emphasized output targets and
paid little heed to production.

In 1986, Hanoi adopted the Doi Moi economic reforms, with a
significant effect on the south, making it the engine for Vietnam’s
industrial growth. These reforms were inspired by Deng Xiaoping's
'Reform and Opening Up' of China in 1978.

****
**** Doing Business in North Vietnam after the US-China negotiations
****

Most companies moving their production facilities from China to
Vietnam to evade US tariffs want to select sites for convenience, in
North Vietnam, close to China's border. The Hanoi government is
encouraging investments from China, but North Vietnamese public in
general is opposed.

Capital inflows from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau stood at $700
million in 2011, but by last year had topped $2.4 billion. China is
the fifth biggest investor in Vietnam behind Japan, South Korea and
Singapore. But critics, especially among North Vietnamese, argue that
Chinese projects exploit cheap labor and minerals, while polluting the
environment and landing the locals in debt.

Vietnamese hostility toward China is great for a number of reasons.
In the late 1970s, after the Vietnam civil war, there was an extremely
bloody border war between China and Vietnam that left a lot of dead
but was otherwise inconclusive. More important, China has illegally
annexed the South China Sea, including regions that historically
belonged to Vietnam. China's navy has even attacked Vietnamese
fishing boats in Vietnam's own territorial waters.

In 2014, thousands of anti-Chinese protesters in Vietnam, furious over
China's installation of an oil rig in waters in the South China Sea
historically claimed by Vietnam, turned violent and torched a number
of factories in a southern Vietnam industrial park. It was Chinese
factories that were the nominal targets, but the angry mob also
attacked properties owned by Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.

Public opposition last year to Chinese investments became focused when
thousands of people filled the streets of several major cities across
Vietnam in June, 2018. They were protesting a proposal to create
three "economic zones" which would give special business and trade
privileges to foreign investors. They were particularly objecting to
a proposal to allow 99 year leases by foreign investors, which allow
the Chinese to set up Chinese enclaves that would remain forever. The
Vietnamese public strongly opposed the economic zones. So far, public
pressure has prevented the Communist government in Hanoi from gaining
approval of the economic zones.

****
**** Doing business in South Vietnam -- Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC or Saigon)
****

Those who wish to do business in South Vietnam should focus on the
city of Saigon, which was renamed to Ho Chi Minh City or HCMC by the
Communists after the 1970s civil war. Last year HCMC attracted
foreign investment of over $7 billion, 22% of the country’s total.

HCMC is experiencing a major real estate boom, thanks to low property
prices. The following are average property prices in Asian cities,
per square meter:
  • Hong Kong $48K
  • Singapore $30K
  • Tokyo $18K
  • Taipei $15k
  • Bangkok $9K
  • HCMC $8K
  • Hanoi $7K

According to one study, 35,000 new apartments were put on the market
between 2015 and 2018. During 2016-17, developers and corporate
buyers snapped up about $1.2 billion of residential-zoned land. Most
of this was from foreign buyers, mostly from South Korea, Hong Kong
and China. According to estimates, over a third of historic old
Saigon city buildings have been destroyed in the last 20 years to make
room for new construction.

However, the disproportionate investment in real estate is
raising concerns. Foreign investment money is pouring into Saigon
for real estate, but not so much for industries.

During the first four months of 2019, real estate accounted
for 46.8% of foreign investment, with little going for
industries such as manufacturing or agricultural processing.

In response, the HCMC People's Committee chairman Le Thanh Liem has
called for $53.8 billion in foreign invesments, focusing on nine areas,
including transport, infrastructure, agriculture, commerce-service,
education, and healthcare. 1,000 hectares of land would be earmarked
for industrial purposes to attract investors.

This should represent a big opportunity for investors or for
businesses that would like to relocate to South Vietnam, because of
low-cost labor, low-cost housing, and government incentives for
foreign investment.

Sources:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, North Vietnam, South Vietnam,
Vietnamese Kingdom, Champa Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Tay-Son rebellion, France, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam War, Doi Moi,
Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, HCMC, Saigon

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

4-Jul-19 World View -- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots - John J. Xenakis - 07-03-2019

*** 4-Jul-19 World View -- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots
  • Nearing a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
  • Britain and China exchange threats in escalated war of words
  • Did China set a trap for the protesters?

****
**** UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots
****

[Image: g190703b.jpg]
Protesters install an old British colonial flag in the Legislative Council chamber on Monday (SCMP)

Although it's still only a war of words, tensions and acrimony have
risen sharply in the last three days, following the pro-democracy
protests in Hong Kong.

On Monday, hundreds of thousands of Hong Konger made peaceful
pro-democracy protests. However, a small group of protests smashed
the thick glass in the exterior glad doors and walls of Hong Kong’s
Legislative Council (LegCo) building, and entered and vandalized the
building.

This has infuriated Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials, some of
whom are calling for a get-tough policy in Hong Kong that removes some
of freedoms granted to Hong Kong in the "one country, two systems"
policy that distinguishes Hong Kong's governance from that of the rest
of China.

But apparently nothing infuriated the CCP officials in Beijing more
than seeing the British colonial flag installed at the head of the
Legislative Council Chamber, as shown in the picture at the beginning
of this article.

Starting on Tuesday, CCP officials have been talking in a manner much
harsher than they've talked in the past. One CCP official suggested
that Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" should be brought to an
end:

<QUOTE>"Yet, some extremists on the pretext of opposing the
amendments to the relevant Bill of the special administration
region government, attacked the Legislative Council building in an
extremely violent manner and deliberately damaged its facilities.

This serious illegal act tramples on the rule of law in Hong Kong,
undermines Hong Kong's social order and undermines the fundamental
interests of Hong Kong. It is a blatant challenge to the ‘one
country, two systems’ bottom line."<END QUOTE>

A number of people on Chinese social media are being quoted as
supporting the government position:

<QUOTE>"There's definitely a problem with the policies
towards Taiwan and Hong Kong. Why does the central government
think that as long as it gives enough benefits and special rights,
the people will be loyal to you?"<END QUOTE>

Here's another:

<QUOTE>"One country, two systems is too lax, and this is the
result. If Hong Kong wants to return to normal, it should start
with decolonization and change the name of Victoria Harbour to
Oriental Pearl Harbour."<END QUOTE>

On the other hand, many of the young protesters on Monday were
expressing concern that the "one country, two systems" policy is
scheduled to end in 2047, well within the expected lives of the
protesters. This is leading many young protesters to demand that Hong
Kong be returned to Britain.

****
**** Nearing a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
****

This is not the end of the story. After Monday's "victory," the
protesters are only going to become more bold in pro-democracy
protests. Pro-independence activists in Taiwan will also be
emboldened. The CCP thugs are seeing the pro-democracy protests in
Hong Kong as a repeat of the 1989 pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen
Square, which ended with the mass slaughter of thousands of peacefully
protesting college students.

This is the danger that many in the international community fear. The
paranoid, delusion people in the high ranks of the CCP consider
democracy to be not a form of government but an ideology, and ideology
opposed to Communism, Socialism and Marxism, and they see a
pro-democracy demonstration as threatening the CCP's very existence.
That reasoning led to the massacre of thousands of peacefully
protesting college students in Tiananmen Square in 1989, and many
analysts fear that the CCP will do a repeat if there's another huge
pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong, last the the last three in the
past couple of months.

For the CCP, the anxiety and hysteria is particularly acute, since
Hong Kong is in southern China, and CCP officials fear a new massive
anti-government rebellion in the south, as happened in the past with
the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution
(1934-49). (See "22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China"
)

****
**** Britain and China exchange threats in escalated war of words
****

China's president Xi Jinping has said that if it hadn't been for
Britain's 1840s invasion of China, the Opium Wars, then China would be
a great nation today. It was as a result of those wars that Britain
acquired Hong Kong as a colony, which it returned to Chinese rule in
1997.

Under the terms of the 1984 Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, signed by
China and Britain, Hong Kong is to be a "Special Administrative
Region" of China, having its own laws, freedoms, financial system and
judicial system, for 50 years, from 1997 until 2047. This is known as
"one country, two systems."

Britain's government claims that even though Hong Kong is part of
China, Britain still has some responsibility to protect Hong Kong
freedoms under the terms of the Joint Declaration that China and
Britain signed in 1984.

Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, began the war of words:

<QUOTE>"My heart goes out to those worried they’ll lose their
precious way of life. I don’t support violence in any
circumstances but I understand their worries about changes
happening in Hong Kong.

The Chinese government say this is an internal affair and it’s not
for Britain to meddle in this, but we signed an agreement ensuring
‘one nation, two systems’ for 50 years, so I hope there are not
changes which undermine that legally binding
agreement."<END QUOTE>

CCP officials have described this statement as "very offensive."
China's position is that the Joint Declaration is an old document that
is no long relevant. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"Let me reiterate, the Joint Declaration resolved the
Hong Kong issue, which was left over by history. As Hong Kong
returned to the motherland and work relating to the transitional
period came to an end, the rights and obligations of the British
side under the declaration were completely fulfilled. On July 1,
1997, China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong and the Chinese
government started administering it in accordance with the
Constitution and the Basic Law. The UK no longer has any
responsibility for Hong Kong. Hong Kong affairs are purely China's
internal affairs that brook no foreign interference.

I would also like to stress that China deplores and strongly
rejects the frequent British interference in and criticism of Hong
Kong affairs. We advise the UK to know its place, stop meddling in
Hong Kong affairs in any form and do more for its prosperity and
stability rather than the opposite."<END QUOTE>

China’s ambassador to London, Liu Xiaoming, appeared on British
television and accused the British government of meddling:

<QUOTE>"The U.K. government chose to stand on the wrong side,
it has made inappropriate remarks, not only to interfere in the
internal affairs of Hong Kong but also to back up the violent
lawbreakers. [Britain has tried to obstruct Hong Kong officials
from] bringing the criminals to justice, which is utter
interference in Hong Kong’s rule of law."<END QUOTE>

I heard several commentators express the fear that the war of words
could escalate into something more serious. The last sentence in the
preceding paragraph shows one possible scenario.

Let's suppose that Britain takes some action to help Hong Kong
activists escape via ship from Hong Kong to avoid prosecution. China
could then block the ship on the high seas, and things could escalate
further.

In my book, "War between China and Japan," I discussed at length how
world wars are triggered by trivial events, as the hatred and vitriol
grows during a generational Crisis era. China repeatedly whines that
China would be a great nation if it hadn't been for Britain's Opium
Wars, and nostalgia in Hong Kong for the days when Hong Kong was a
British colony seems to be growing, which clearly infuriates the CCP
officials.

As I described in my book, in this febrile atmosphere even a simple
event could trigger tit-for-tat escalations back and forth, and lead
to a major military crisis.

[Image: g190703c.jpg]
In a previous protest, girl holds British flag and placard reading 'Make Hong Kong Great Britain Again' (SCMP)

****
**** Did China set a trap for the protesters?
****

When the protesters were breaking into the Legilative Council (LegCo)
building, they had to smash through doors and windows with thick
glass, designed to withstand terrorist explosions. It took several
hours to finally break through.

During all this time, there were riot police nearby, but they did
nothing to stop the vandalism. In fact, when the small group of
vandals approached, they turned away.

As midnight approached, the protesters finally left the LegCo
building, and all that were left were reporters. The BBC reporter
wondered why he was being allowed inside the building, and was allowed
to broadcast these scenes to the world. He raised the question about
whether the government was setting some kind of trap, so that they
could be called rioters and terrorists.

That seems to be exactly what happened. The riot police were right
there, and could have stopped the smashing of the LegCo building doors
and windows, but just stood aside and them the vandals proceed. Now
the Chinese government will be able to use this incident as a reason
to impose stricter laws and procedures on Hong Kong residents.

Sources:

Related:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Britain,
Legislative Council, LegCo, one nation - two systems,
Tiananmen Square massacre, Opium Wars, Joint Declaration,
Jeremy Hunt, Liu Xiaoming

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-04-2019

** 04-Jul-2019 World View: Britain seizes Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria

Britain's Royal Marines have seized an Iranian oil tanker, the Grace
1, a "very large crude carrier" or VLCC, allegedly carrying Iranian
oil to Syria. The tanker would have been violating two different
sanctions -- the sanctions against Iran selling oil, and the sanctions
against Syria receiving oil.

[Image: DD-COMPOSITE-TANKER-MAP-3.jpg?w=500]
  • Path of Iran's Grace 1 oil supertanker (The Sun)


The geopolitical effects are that Syria will feel the immediate impact
of losing a crucial oil shipment, while tensions between Iran and the
West will be further inflamed.

According to a report in World Oil:

Quote: "Gibraltar didn’t say where the crude came from, but
shipping tracking data compiled by Bloomberg suggest the vessel
loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in mid-April. After
anchoring off the United Arab Emirates for several weeks, the ship
began a journey around the southern tip of Africa, passing Cape
Town in early June, rather than taking the more direct route
through the Suez Canal.

That route from Iran to Syria is about 23,300 km (14,500 mi),
compared with just 6,600 km via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. A ship
the size of the Grace 1, known as a Very Large Crude Carrier, or
VLCC, can’t pass through the canal fully loaded. The shorter route
would require it to discharge half its cargo, load it on to a
smaller ship or send the oil through the Sumed Pipeline, and pick
it up again in the Mediterranean.

Iran can’t pump oil through the pipeline, which spans Egypt from
the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, because the link is owned by
companies from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait and Qatar. The pipeline’s owners have not permitted the
transit of Iranian crude since August 2012."

Gibraltar is a British territory on Spain's southern tip that
overlooks the strait between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic
Ocean. Britain acquired the Gibraltar territory during the War of the
Spanish Succession (1704-1709), which was settled by the Treaty of
Utrecht of 1714.

Gibraltar has been a part of the Brexit negotiations. Media reports
usually say that there is only one land border between the UK and the
EU27 (the rest of the EU), but that's not true. There's another land
border -- between Spain and the British territory of Gibraltar. The
border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is highly contentious
because of fears that introducing customs checks on that border will
once again inflame "The Troubles," the centuries-old clash between the
indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the Scottish and English
invaders. However, there is no such concern with Gibraltar, and there
will be customs checks between Gibraltar and Spain (assuming that
Brexit actually occurs).

The Donald Trump administration has place extremely harsh sanctions on
Iran, and the current incident will certainly inflame tensions
further. In my opinion, Trump has been following a dual strategy with
Iran -- a short range strategy and a long-range strategy.

Since 2015, Iran has been using the billions of dollars they received
from the JCPOA to build up the IRGC and to fund military and terrorist
activities in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas).
Trump's short-range strategy was to cut off this flow of money, and
it's already been effective, since there are reports that Hezbollah
and Hamas are having financial problems.

The other part of the short-range strategy is to keep Iran from
doing stupid things like exploding oil tankers in Hormuz Strait
or shooting down drones. This whole song and dance about planning
a military strike and then calling it off ten minutes before launch
seems to have accomplished that strategy, at least so far.

Iran's younger generations, the ones that grew up after the 1979 civil
war, hate the hard-line geezers and are mostly pro-Western and
pro-American, and as the younger generations grow in size, while the
old hard-line geezers die off, Iran's policies are gradually changing.
So Trump's long-range strategy is to encourage that change of policy.

As far as I can tell, the European countries favor this policy, but
can't say so for domestic reasons. Thursday's seizure of the Iranian
oil tanker is likely to cause expressions of outrage from Iran, but
will probably not generate more than perfunctory political complaints
within the EU.

---- Sources:

-- Grace 1 supertanker / Iran / British forces seize oil tanker for
violating Syria sanctions
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/4/british-forces-seize-oil-tanker-for-violating-syria-sanctions
(WorldOil, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Eyes on Iran as Britain seizes oil tanker over Syria sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-gibraltar/eyes-on-iran-as-britain-seizes-oil-tanker-over-syria-sanctions-idUSKCN1TZ0GN
(Reuters, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Syria / Iran / U.K. Marines Seize Oil Tanker, Causing Diplomatic
Row With Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-04/gibraltar-says-it-seized-oil-tanker-carrying-crude-to-syria
(BB, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Royal Marines and Gibraltar seize ship suspected of taking Iranian
oil to Syria
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/04/royal-marines-gibraltar-tanker-oil-syria-eu-sanctions
(Guardian, 4-Jul-2019)

---- Related:

** 20-Aug-13 World View -- Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e130820.htm#e130820


** 4-Jan-19 World View -- Britain may establish a military base in South China Sea after Brexit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190104.htm#e190104

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-05-2019

** 05-Jul-2019 Chinese hatred of Japanese

I was speaking with someone today who used to work in a lab several
years ago. There were two elderly Chinese working there, and they
were as nice as can be. A young Japanese man, around 30 yo, came to
work there, and he was nice as can be too. But the two Chinese men
absolutely hated the Japanese man. They never spoke to him at all,
and for months never referred to him except in the most contemptuous
way. This hatred is based on the numerous atrocities that the
Japanese committed on China during World War II.

This is the kind of vitriolic hatred that's leading to a world war.
This hatred runs so deep that it can't be described as anything but a
desire to exterminate the Japanese.

Just to reprise what I've written several times before, it's been
obvious for at least 15 years that the Chinese are planning to launch
a war against America. We know this because they've been developing
and massively deploying large intercontinental ballistic missile
systems with nuclear weapons with no purpose except to destroy
American cities, American bases, and American aircraft carriers. So
it's been obvious for many years that China has been planning on
launching a war with America, and it was coming with 100% certainty.

But I had a major change in views towards the end of last year, thanks
to the research I was doing on my book. I began to understand that
China does not want a war with the US. China wants a war of
extermination against Japan to get revenge for WW II, and China wants
a war of annexation against Taiwan. So why is China planning to
launch a war with the US? Because the Chinese know that the US will
defend Japan and Taiwan, so they have no choice.

It's been widely believed -- and I bought into this as well -- that
the Chinese wanted hegemony over the whole world. They were sending
their navy to Africa, the new Silk Road to Europe, and a massive
missile attack to the United States.

One thing we know from China's ancient text Sun Tzu's Art of War, the
Chinese view every relationship with outsiders as a relationship of
current or future war. And there is no concept in the Art of War of a
United Nations or a community of nations. Everything is based on
deception and subterfuge. China will sign international agreements,
and expect others to adhere to them, but will ignore the requirements
they impose on China. We've seen this in trade, in the South China
Sea, and everywhere else.

And I've come to the conclusion that part of China's deception today
is to let everyone believe that the Chinese want hegemony of the
entire world. China's military certainly doesn't believe anything so
idiotic, nor do senior CCP officials, but there are many delusional
people, inside and outside of China, who do believe.

And that's really very convenient for the Chinese, since it hides
their true intentions. If China wants hegemony over the entire world,
then you know that's never going to happen, so you decide not to
worry about it.

But if you understand the truth -- that China wants a revenge war
against Japan, then that's very different. You know that China could
launch such a war at any time, and you'll prepare for it, which is not
what the Chinese want. So instead, they'll let you live your life as
usual, thinking that China will never attack the whole world, so
you're safe.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-06-2019

So nothing interesting happened today?

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-06-2019

(07-06-2019, 05:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: So nothing interesting happened today?

I thought that story was interesting.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-06-2019

** 05-Jul-2019 World View: China abducting and 'reeducating' Uighur children in East Turkistan (Xinjiang)


Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in China's East Turkistan
(Xinjiang) province are forcefully taking Muslim Uighur and Kazakh
children from their parents and locking them up in "centralized care"
centers. In the "centralized care" centers, they're completely and
permanently cut off from their parents, and their parents' language
and culture. They're forced to speak only Chinese, and to spend many
hours per day reciting phrases worshipping the Chinese Communist Party
and Xi Jinping.

Starting in 2017, the CCP has arrested over a million Uighurs and
Kazakhs in East Turkistan, and locked them up in concentration camps,
as we've reported many times, where they're beaten, tortured, and
forced to recite phrases for many hours per day, praising the CCP. A
person could be locked up any kind of "crime," such as shaving one's
beard, since that could be a sign of a budding terrorist.

But it was never clear what was happening to the children. These new
reports reveal that. During the last three years there's been a
rapid, large-scale campaign to build boarding schools, abduct children
from their parents, and lock them up permanently in the boarding
schools for "centralized care."

The BBC researched this by collecting publicly available documents,
and by interviewing dozens of people in Turkey who have lost their
children during supposedly short visits to Xinjiang. The Uighurs and
Kazakhs are ethnically Turkic people, and they have relatives in East
Turkistan, the children are abducted during family visits. One person
on the BBC World Service said that he was watching a video released by
the CCP to show the world how happy the children are in CCP
orphanages, and he saw his own son for the first time in three years,
and was shocked to hear him speak Chinese.

The BBC also commissioned work by Adrian Zenz, a German researcher.
Zenz did extensive research, resulting in a lengthy report published
last week in the Journal of Political Risk. He analyzed all available
evidence, consisting of government policy and implementation
directives, different kinds of official reports and related state or
private media articles, educational statistics, public construction
and procurement bids, village-based work team reports, and official
propaganda pieces that extol the benefits of the so-called "vocational
training."

Zenz discovered that as the number of Uighur adults who were locked up
in concentration camps grew into the millions, their children who no
longer had any parents, were becoming a major societal problem.

According to Zenz's report:

Quote: "Government documents provide clear evidence that
there are large numbers of children with one or both parents in
some form of internment. These documents specifically refer to
“couples where both partners are detained in re-education," or
“couples where both partners are in vocational training center."
They also testify to the fact that this has developed into a
concrete and urgent societal issue. From early 2018, the state
began to issue urgent directives on how to deal with the virtually
orphaned children of single or “double-detained” parents, be it
through special care institutions or the regular education
system. Local governments began to require schools to provide
one-on-one “psychological counseling” and to proactively scan the
state of mind of students with parents in detention in order to
preempt trouble. Schools must now be prepared to mobilize entire
teams of teachers, staff and other students to deal with such
students when they are in distress, as well as taking measures for
making up for their loss of family ties. Other evidence shows that
schools have developed “emergency response plans” that include
dealing with students with detained parents in a timely and
effective manner in order to prevent violent
incidents."

The report concludes:

Quote: "It is only with what I refer to as the weaponization
of education and social care systems that the region’s
hair-raising political re-education and transformation drive is
achieving its terrifying degree of seamless
comprehensiveness. Increasing degrees of intergenerational
separation are very likely a deliberate strategy and crucial
element in the state’s systematic campaign of social
re-engineering and cultural genocide in Xinjiang.'"

Reading this report, I was reminded of the song from the Broadway play
Oliver!, sung by Mr. Bumble after the orphaned boy Oliver held out his
dish and said, "Please sir, I want some more."


Quote: "Oliver, Oliver
Never before has a boy wanted more
Oliver, Oliver
Won't ask for more when he knows what's in store
There's a dark, thin winding stairway without any banister
Which we'll throw him down
And feed him the cockroaches served in a canister

Oliver, Oliver
What will he do when he's turned black and blue
He will rue the day somebody named him Ol-i-ver ...

Oliver, Oliver
What heavens pray will the govenors say
They will lay the blame on the one who named him
Ol-i-ver"

The Broadway play is based on the 1840s serial novel, Oliver Twist, by
Charles Dickens. The 1840s was a generational Awakening era in
England, and Dickens was a social warrior whose novels had the purpose
of showing the seamy underground of London society, including the
horrific treatment of orphans in parish orphanages.

It's worth looking again at the last four lines of the song lyrics
quoted above. It suddenly dawns on Mr. Bumble that there are
investigations of orphanages going on in London at the time, and if
anything bad happens to Oliver, then the person who will be blamed
will be the person who named him Oliver -- Mr. Bumble himself.

I can't resist taking this side trip one step further. When the
investigation finally does occur, Mr. Bumble is accused of having
destroyed evidence that might have been used to determine Oliver's
real parents. The investigator speaks to Mr. and Mrs. Bumble:

Quote: "'Nothing,' replied Mr. Brownlow, 'except that it
remains for us to take care that neither of you is employed in a
situation of trust again. You may leave the room.'

'I hope,' said Mr. Bumble, looking about him with great
ruefulness, as Mr. Grimwig disappeared with the two old women: 'I
hope that this unfortunate little circumstance will not deprive me
of my porochial office?'

'Indeed it will,' replied Mr. Brownlow. 'You may make up your mind
to that, and think yourself well off besides.'

'It was all Mrs. Bumble. She would do it,' urged Mr. Bumble; first
looking round to ascertain that his partner had left the room.

'That is no excuse,' replied Mr. Brownlow. 'You were present on
the occasion of the destruction of these trinkets, and indeed are
the more guilty of the two, in the eye of the law; for the law
supposes that your wife acts under your direction.'

'If the law supposes that,' said Mr. Bumble, squeezing his hat
emphatically in both hands, 'the law is a ass -- a idiot. If
that's the eye of the law, the law is a bachelor; and the worst I
wish the law is, that his eye may be opened by experience -- by
experience.'"

So believe it or not, Dear Reader, I actually had a valid purpose in
drifting off into the story of Mr. and Mrs. Bumble, because they were
in exactly the situation that the Xinjiang CCP officials are in today.
As Zenz's research indicates, with millions of Uighurs in
concentration camps, there must be hundreds of thousands of children
who no longer have parents, and these are a major social problem.
China's government is apparently becoming nervous that the outside
world will learn about the concentration camps and reeducation
centers, and is taking steps to prevent that from happening.

The BBC reporter John Sudworth has been reporting on the concentration
camps for three years, and is now reporting on the abducted children,
possibly hoping to become the Charles Dickens of today, though as a
journalist rather than as a novelist.

However, there were no English security forces blocking Charles
Dickens's research the way that there are Chinese security forces
blocking Sudworth's attempts to visit the concentration camps.

In 2017, the CCP denied the existence of the concentration camps,
although they were clearly visible in satellite photos. Finally,
based on the photos and the stories of people whose families had been
abducted, the CCP said that they existed, but they were benigh
educational institutions.

In January, the CCP invited diplomats from 12 countries to visit one
of the concentration camps, Moyu County Vocational Skills Education
and Training Center, where “students are studying the national
language, national musical instruments, calligraphy and painting,
legal knowledge and various employment skills in the classroom. The
envoys asked the students about their study and life in detail, and
watched the performances of the students," according to Chinese media.

A comparable event occurred in 1943, when Hitler's Nazis decided to
let the Danish Red Cross and the Swedish Red Cross visit the
Theresienstadt concentration camp. The camp had been a filthy,
crowded smelly place where Jews were packed like sardines in small
cells. The visitors would be permitted to see only certain portions
of the camp. Prior to the visit, all buildings and grounds along the
travel route were enhanced by green turf, flowers, and benches. A
playground, sports fields, and even a monument were added. Thousands
of Jews were deported to other camps, to reduce crowding. Prominent
and Dutch Jews had their cells enlarged, as well as had furniture,
drapes, and flower boxes added. A sign, "Boys School" was erected
over one building, even though nobody ever had attended that school.
During the visit, well-rehearsed actions took place that were created
specially for the visit. Bakers baking bread, a load of fresh
vegetables being delivered, and workers singing were all queued by
messengers who ran ahead of the entourage.

So we have three different events, spanning 160 years of time:
  • The horrific 1840s orphanages, revealed by Charles Dickens

  • The horrific Nazi concentration camps, with a model Theresienstadt
    concentration camp was set up to fool international officials.

  • The horrific Xinjiang concentration camps and boarding schools,
    where a model Moyu County Vocational Skills Education and Training
    Center was set up to fool international diplomats.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

One more little anecdote:

I heard someone on Fox news the other day whining because the New York
Times had never written anything about the Nazi Holocaust at the time
that it was occurring, even though it was known through the
testimonies of escaped Jews. All my life, I've heard officials say,
"Never again!" referring to the Holocaust that targeted Jews.

So I remain continually astonished that there are three Holocausts
going on today in three different countries, all targeting Sunni
Muslims -- China's genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs and
Kazakhs, Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide and ethnic cleansing of
Rohingyas, and Syria's (Bashar al-Assad's) genocide and ethnic
cleansing of his Arab Sunni enemies.

Just as almost no one uttered a peep or cared about the ongoing Nazi
Holocaust, today almost no one is uttering a peep or cares about three
Holocausts currently in progress in three different countries.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.


---- Sources:

-- China Muslims: Xinjiang schools used to separate children from
families
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48825090
(BBC/Sudworth, 4-Jul-2019)


-- Break Their Roots: Evidence for China’s Parent-Child Separation
Campaign in Xinjiang
http://www.jpolrisk.com/break-their-roots-evidence-for-chinas-parent-child-separation-campaign-in-xinjiang#_ftn1
(Journal Of Political Risk, Adrian Zenz, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Xinjiang / Uighurs / China accused of rapid campaign to take Muslim
children from their families
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/05/fake-news-china-dismisses-reports-about-detention-of-uighurs
(Guardian, London, 5-Jul-2019)

-- Children of detained Uyghurs held in mass boarding schools in
Xinjiang, research claims
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/05/asia/xinjiang-muslims-china-intl-hnk/index.html
(CNN, 5-Jul-2019)

-- Nipping Dissent In The Bud: After ‘Re-Education’ Camps For Adults,
Now Children Under Communist Government Gaze
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/nipping-dissent-in-the-bud-after-re-education-camps-for-adults-now-children-under-communist-government-gaze
(Swarajya, India, 5-Jul-2019)

-- Searching for truth in China's Uighur 're-education' camps
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48700786
(BBC, 21-Jun-2019)


-- Commentary: Why won’t U.S. politicians talk about Chinese
concentration camps?
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-china-concentration-camps-xinjiang-uighurs-goldberg--20190625-fimyxbkjibg5fewfxwhzzfvb54-story.html
(Chicago Tribune, 25-Jun-2019)


-- China’s Algorithms of Repression - Reverse Engineering a Xinjiang
Police Mass Surveillance App
https://www.hrw.org/node/329384
(Human Rights Watch, 1-May-2019)

-- Hitler / Holocaust / Terezin (Theresienstadt): The "Model" Ghetto
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/theresienstadt-the-ldquo-model-rdquo-ghetto
(JewishVirtualLibrary)

-- China Takes Diplomats to Tour Xinjiang ‘Re-Education Camps’
::xwla-02/11/2019
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-08/china-takes-diplomats-to-tour-xinjiang-re-education-camps
(Bloomberg, 8-Jan-2019)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-07-2019

** 07-Jul-2019 When will WW III start?

[Image: latest?cb=20160718231626]
  • World War III

Guest Wrote:> Anyone have an idea when the Reds will attack Hong Kong?
> Why are the Chicoms waiting so long to sort things out?

Here are some predictions of the exact dates that WW III will start.


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/mystic-who-foretold-donald-trump-10252716

https://astrologyandpsychicpredictions.wordpress.com/tag/world-war-3/

http://www.exploratoryastrology.dk/412093334

Hope that helps!

(By the way, some of the dates in those articles have already passed.)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 07-07-2019

Attacking Hong Kong would just be a Tienanmen square incident, Not a WW3. No country would intervene if a crackdown on Hong Kong took place. The only thing that would be different is that several countries may move their investments to outside china as a result.

Also BTW the Eiffel tower is located in Paris, France, Not Hong Kong.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 07-07-2019

(07-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Attacking Hong Kong would just be a Tienanmen square incident, Not a WW3. No country would intervene if a crackdown on Hong Kong took place. The only thing that would be different is that several countries may move their investments to outside china as a result.

Also BTW the Eiffel tower is located in Paris, France, Not Hong Kong.

Or, how about another MSM obsession over a nothing burger?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/france-fuel-protests-heres-whats-happening-and-why-it-matters.html

It seems to me the French government doesn't listen to it's people as well.  So all in all, it's just a matter of degree and not in kind for this sort of thing. Here's an idea from Jonesers.

1. Indifference to this sort of thing, due to fucked up elites everywhere it seems is the best policy.  IOW,  how about a pox on many houses.  There is a hidden agenda on my part as well.  Strategic withdrawal from elite projects is a nice way for them to collapse.  After all, the Soviet Union didn't collapse due to war, but rather the rapidly spreading indifference amongst the population.

2. Strategic opting out is another idea.  I opt out of MSM, Facefuck, Twatter, etc.  Here , it's more of a bad deal I'm getting.  I demand that I get paid for my
intellectual property.  Since social media shithead companies don't pay me, I opt out of them as well.

3.  Some more ideas here:  https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-07-2019

(07-07-2019, 03:40 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/france-fuel-protests-heres-whats-happening-and-why-it-matters.html

Macron basically just grabbed control of the EU for France, and has gotten the German Chancellor's agreement to a combined military.  Things could now change in Europe as quckly as they changed in the 1930s in Germany.

Eventually the US will realize that its biggest adversary isn't Russia and isn't China, but instead is the EU.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-08-2019

(07-07-2019, 07:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(07-07-2019, 03:40 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/france-fuel-protests-heres-whats-happening-and-why-it-matters.html

Macron basically just grabbed control of the EU for France, and has gotten the German Chancellor's agreement to a combined military.  Things could now change in Europe as quckly as they changed in the 1930s in Germany.

Eventually the US will realize that its biggest adversary isn't Russia and isn't China, but instead is the EU.

If we are stupid enough to make an enemy of the EU, then yes, they will be our most formidable adversary.  Assuming a return to rational behavior (not a given by any means), our next President and Congress should work to offset the Trump nonsense starting on day one.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-08-2019

Adversaries and enemies are not the same thing.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-09-2019

(07-08-2019, 03:49 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Adversaries and enemies are not the same thing.

No, not exactly … but Trump is doing his best to insult and demean every nation and national leader in the EU, so the difference is rapidly becoming negligible to nonexistent.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-09-2019

Just wait until Trump figures out that the EU is taking advantage of the US in terms of international trade way more than China is.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 07-09-2019

John - you talk about how the Chinese and the Japanese hate each other, and that's true - but you realize it's not just the Chinese, right?

Quote:A Japan-South Korea trade war? First, some facts. South Korea is Japan’s third-largest export destination (7.1 percent of all Japanese exports in 2018). Japan is South Korea’s fifth-largest export destination (5.1 percent of all South Korean exports in 2018). Both countries have an interest in coordinating their economic, military and political power to curb China’s growing regional footprint. And yet, the two seem incapable of coordinating anything besides mutual annoyance. Last Thursday, Japan began forcing Japanese companies to seek government approval before exporting fluorinated polyamide, photoresists and hydrogen fluoride etching gas – materials South Korea depends on for the production of semiconductors and smartphone displays. Japan has justified the move based on undefined national security risks. South Korea’s trade minister said earlier today that the two sides were laying the groundwork for a potential Friday meeting to discuss the issue, but Japan’s chief Cabinet secretary told reporters that “The measure is not a subject for consultation and we have no intention of withdrawing it.” That doesn’t sound like a trade spat on the verge of being resolved.

This is from the GPF newsletter.  The following link may or may not work:
https://mailchi.mp/386148985920/daily-memo-japan-south-korea-trade-arming-taiwan-the-uae-out-of-yemen?e=6b677b3791

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-09-2019

(07-09-2019, 11:12 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Just wait until Trump figures out that the EU is taking advantage of the US in terms of international trade way more than China is.

No, but you might make a case for Germany.  The Germans are still batshit scared of inflation, and always have to have an export balance, so yes, they qualify.  This has lead to a overvalued Euro, but only there, making German products underpriced.  Other than that, not so much.

10-Jul-19 World View -- US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite Ch - John J. Xenakis - 07-09-2019

*** 10-Jul-19 World View -- US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury
  • Pundits fear conflict with US-China trade talks

****
**** US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury
****

The US State Dept. has approved the sale of sophisticated weapons to
Taiwan. The sales will include 250 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and
108 General Dynamics M1A2T Abrams tanks.

According to a statement from the Dept. of Defense:

<QUOTE>"This proposed sale will support the foreign policy
and national security of the United States by helping to improve
the security and defensive capability of the recipient, an
important force for political stability, military balance, and
economic progress in the region.

The recipient intends to use these defense articles and services
to modernize its armed forces and expand its existing air defense
architecture to counter threats. This will contribute to the
recipient military's goal to update its capability while further
enhancing greater interoperability between the recipient, the
U.S., and other partners. The recipient will have no difficulty
absorbing this equipment into its armed forces.

The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the
basic military balance in the region."<END QUOTE>

Although the statement sales that the sale "will not alter the basic
military balance in the region," it's clear that the intended purpose
is to allow Taiwan to defend itself against an attack by China.
China has stated that it will, as a last resort, invade Taiwan in
order to annex it to China, as it has already illegally annexed
the South China Sea to China.

The intent is that anti-aircraft missiles will permit Taiwan to
defend against a missile attack by China, and the tanks will permit
Taiwan to defend itself from a land attack by China.

According to a tweet by Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen:

<QUOTE>"Pleased that the #US government has approved another
arms sale package, boosting #Taiwan’s self-defense
capabilities. We’ll continue to speed up investment in national
defense, & partner with like-minded countries to defend democracy
while promoting regional peace and stability.
pic.twitter.com/dw4Rw58hYb Tsai Ing-wen (@iingwen) July 9,
2019"<END QUOTE>

However, China's Foreign Ministry responded harshly:

<QUOTE>"The US arms sale to Taiwan gravely violates
international law and basic norms in international relations,
seriously breaches the one-China principle and the three China-US
joint communiques, flagrantly interferes in China's domestic
affairs and harms China's sovereignty and security
interests. China deplores and resolutely opposes it. We have
lodged stern representations with the US.

Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory. No one
should underestimate the Chinese government and people's will and
resolve to defend our sovereignty and national integrity against
foreign interference. We urge the US to stay committed to the
one-China principle and the three joint communiques, cancel this
arms sale immediately and stop military ties with Taiwan to
prevent further damage to China-US relations and peace and
stability across the Taiwan Strait."<END QUOTE>

As I've written in the past, China does not want a war with the US.
However, China is planning a war of extermination against Japan, in
revenge for Japan's atrocities in World War II, and also a war of
annexation against Taiwan. China is developing a huge arsenal of
missiles and ships to attack the United States because the Chinese
know that the US will defend Japan and Taiwan when they're attacked by
China.

****
**** Pundits fear conflict with US-China trade talks
****

A number of commentators are complaining about the timing of this
announcement of arms sales to Taiwan because it will further complicate
the US-China trade talks. The US and China were close to an agreement
in May, when the Chinese negotiators reneged on all their written
commitments.

The reality is there will never be a US-China trade agreement, because
China will never give up its illegal trade practices and illegal theft
of foreign intelligence and intellectual property, no matter what
Donald Trump or anyone else does, whether the US sells arms to Taiwan
or not.

As usual, the mainstream media are totally baffled by Trump's foreign
policy. The purpose of the US-China trade talks is only partially
about trade. It's mostly about derailing China's headlong rush into
launching World War III. As I've said many times in the past, World
War III is 100% certain, and cannot be prevented. However, I'm not
going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent WW III, even if
it's impossible to prevent World War III.

Sources:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Japan

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