Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-03-2019 ** 03-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong generational split I've been watching the Hong Kong coverage on the BBC, and right at this moment it appears that the police are about to make a move to push the pro-democracy protesters back. There may be more violence in the next hour. The BBC reporter made some interesting generational comments. The pro-democracy protesters are almost all very young -- students, civil servants. They've all presumably grown up since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China. There's a separate smaller pro-Beijing demonstration going on, on the other side of the harbor, and the BBC reporter says that they're mostly elderly people. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - sbarrera - 08-03-2019 That makes sense to me. We are seeing a similar political split between the generations in other countries, such as the U.S. The youth want a new way forward, the elders cling to the past. Make America the 1950s Again! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-03-2019 (08-03-2019, 09:04 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That makes sense to me. We are seeing a similar political split between the generations in other countries, such as the U.S. The youth want a new way forward, the elders cling to the past. Make America the 1950s Again! Your saecular pages link is broken RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-04-2019 ** 04-Aug-2019 Cathar Crusade Trevor Wrote:> I've been doing a bit of reading and I would say that the Cathar I read a couple of sources on the subject, and it seems to follow a familiar pattern. The Cathars became a populist religion that began in the Awakening era and became popular and spread through the Unraveling era. The Catholic Church first used peaceful means ("persuasion") to stop the spread, but those failed. Then there were small local clashes. The sizes of the clashes grew. It appears that the Regeneracy occurred in in 1224 when King Louis VIII entered the war on the side of the Church, followed by King Louis IX in 1226. The Cathars were crushed and forced to surrender by 1229, leading to a "Treaty of Paris." This appears to be the crisis climax. After that, the Inquisition took over, which would be the kind of thing that happens in a First Turning Recovery Era. There were still clashes, with the most notable occurring in 1244 and 1255. "The last known Cathar burning occurred in 1321." Here are the sources I read: https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Albigensian_Crusade https://www.ancient.eu/Albigensian_Crusade/ http://www.cathar.info/cathar_wars.htm The analysis that I wrote above makes sense and appears to be correct, and as you say, it does seem to be a "pre-modern genocide," but there's a lot missing from it. In particular, what's needed is to identify the preceding generational crisis war, and why it led to the rise and spread of the Cathars during the Awakening and Unraveling eras. In particular, who are the Cathars? What's their history? Are they an ethnic group? A geographic group? Did they speak a different language? Have a different skin color or appearance? What happened to them in the preceding crisis war? What do they have in common that caused them to form an identity group based on the Cathar heresy? A complete analysis would require going back a couple of crisis wars, and show what led up to the Cathar Crusade. Next, what happened to the Cathars after that? Maybe their heresy religion disappeared, but the people didn't disappear. What role did they play in the crisis war that followed the Cathar Crusade? This is the difference between ordinary historical accounts versus generational analyses. An ordinary historical account that any historian might write just says something happened on a certain date or in a certain decade, and lists names, dates and places. A generational analysis has to include the flow of generations and identity groups through multiple generational eras over two or three centuries, to show how one era leads to the next. A generational analysis is clearly a lot more complicated than a simple historical account that a historian typically writes. If you want to carry this further, I suggest just reading 20 or 30 more relevant sources. My experience is that once you've read enough stuff from different political points of view, the generational events and eras become very clear, and everything falls into place. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-04-2019 ** 04-Aug-2019 World View: China's yuan (renminbi) currency breaks 7 to the dollar For those who care about such things, in the last hour, China has just fixed its yuan (renminbi) currency exchange rate to 7.0335 to the dollar, as reported on Bloomberg TV. The exchange rate has been below 7 for years, and China has remained committed to keep it below 7. The fact that the exchange rate has increased above 7 means that the yuan currency has been falling in value (since you pay more yuan when you use the currency to purchase dollars). The weakening of China's currency has been a subject of debate in Washington recently because of the US-China trade war. Donald Trump has place tariffs on Chinese products. This means that when US companies purchase these products, they have to pay a tax that goes into the US treasury, and the company passes those taxes on to consumers in the form of price increases. However, the Trump administration claims that China is paying for the tariffs, and points to the fact that prices have not been increasing since the tariffs were implemented. The way this works, according to the Trump administration, is that China has been absorbing the cost of the tariffs in two ways -- by lowering their prices for products, and by weakening the yuan currency so that you need fewer dollars to pay for a Chinese product priced in yuan. This evening, China weakened the yuan currency significantly, and this supports the position of the Trump administration. ---- Sources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-04/asia-stocks-set-to-drop-with-trade-back-in-focus-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-europe (Bloomberg, August 4, 2019, 9:22 PM EDT) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-05-2019 ** 05-Aug-2019 World View: News summary Things are supposed to slow down in August, but there's a lot going on. *** Hong Kong Protesters are using new "flash protest" techniques. Instead of holding a protest in one place, where they can be driven away by the police, they block one intersection or train station, and then move on to the next one when the police come. This has been going on for nine weeks. The CCP is not going to tolerate this much longer. I saw the city governor Carrie Lam give a press conference, almost in tears, saying "this is very dangerous for Hong Kong, the city we love, the city we built." *** Kashmir, India India send tens of thousands of troops into the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir last week, for no apparent reason. Now we know the reason. They're revoking Article 370 of the constitution, which gives autonomy to the mostly Muslim population of Kashmir. Article 370 was at the heart about why Kashmir joined India in 1947, so revoking it is a very big deal. The Muslims in Kashmir are furious, and the government of Pakistan is also furious. It strikes me how similar this situation is to Hong Kong. Kashmir and Hong Kong are semi-autonomous regions of India and China, respectively, and the central governments are trying to limit that autonomy. *** Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Ebola is spreading through Goma, the DR Congo city of over two million people on the border with Uganda. Officials are becoming increasingly pessimistic that the outbreak can be contained any time soon. They're talking about 2-3 years. It's interesting -- the 2014 outbreak caused international panic. This outbreak is barely being covered outside of the region. This outbreak may turn out to be even more dangerous to the world than the 2014 outbreak. *** Idlib, Syria Russia has always used a UN Security Council veto to prevent a UN investigation of human rights and war crime violations by Russia and Syria in Syria's Idlib province. Westerners have used a trick to get around the Russian veto. The UN had supplied the coordinates of hospitals and schools in Idlib to Russia with the understanding that the Syrians and Russians would not bomb the buildings at those coordinates. Not surprisingly, the sleazebags in Damascus and Moscow used that list in order to target hospitals and schools purposely. So this is considered such an egregious crime against the UN, that the UN will do an investigation of that issue -- and at the same time will undoubtedly reach broader conclusions about war crimes. The Russian sleazebags are furious. *** US-China trade talks The latest round of US-China trade negotiations have collapsed completely. The Chinese refused to commit to anything, and are now demanding that they won't even negotiate any more unless we first remove all the sanctions, allow Huawei free entry into the US, and release the Huawei CEO being held in Canada. Trump announced a new set of sanctions to be implemented on September 1. *** Sharp selloff in stocks, fall in bond yields The collapse of the US-China trade talks and Trump's announcement of new sanctions have led to a sharp selloff on Monday on Wall Street. At the same time, yields (interest rates) on Treasury bonds have been falling sharply, which means that investors are selling stocks and buying bonds. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2019 ** 06-Aug-2019 The Fourth Turning Crisis Crisis Tom Mazanec Wrote:> The Burning Platform on The Fourth Turning (Part two): This article is based on the 1990s fourth turning theory (TFT theory), which Neil Howe and David Kaiser have abandoned. Starting in the Bush administration, Howe had to change the 1990s theory so that there wouldn't have to be a war in the Fourth Turning, since predicting a war would support the neo-cons in the Bush administration, and Howe and Kaiser are left-wing Democrats. Then during the Obama administration, Kaiser developed a weird, complex theory that Obama would bring about social changes that would cause a spiritual reawakening, and bring about "the death of the old political, economic and social order." So political activist Kaiser was hoping that Obama's social changes would bring about the Fourth Turning crisis without a war. That prediction, of course, was a complete failure. So now, in the Trump administration, the TFT acolytes are in a state of crisis (you might call it the "Fourth Turning Crisis Crisis"), because even they can see that the Fourth Turning crisis will be a world war, and Trump may be the one who leads the US through that crisis, which would elevate Trump to the list of America's Greatest Leaders, including Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt. The TFT acolytes can't stand that possibility, since they really hate Trump, so they've gone into a state of total delusion, along with everyone else on the left. So the article that you reference is a good article, and is entirely reasonable in GD theory, but ironically, the article is a reversion to the old, now rejected TFT theory. It's a shame that Howe had to abandon his own theory, since ideology is more important. The article is very vague about what might happen. It's like a weather forecaster predicting rain next month, with no more details. Generational Dynamics has provided a great deal of detail about how the Fourth Turning will begin, and how it will turn out, something the TFT theory is completely clueless about, since it has nothing to say about China, Japan or the Mideast, or any country other than England and America. Howe and Kaiser are also boxed in in another way. TFT theory applies only to England and America. They would like to apply 1990s TFT theory to other countries, but they can't do that because that would require adopting the Principle of Localization that I developed in Generational Dynamics. Kaiser has adopted the Principle of Location in some of his writings, but of course he simply plagiarizes the concept from me without giving me credit. Howe and Kaiser really despise me because of the success of GD theory and the failure of TFT theory, so now they and the TFT acolytes have to bend themselves into pretzels to avoid writing anything that appears to support Trump or that appears to agree with Generational Dynamics. Must be tough. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2019 ** 06-Aug-2019 World View: Is China panicking? Guest Wrote:> Just as Chinese goods are getting around tariffs by SubtoDT Wrote:> Yes, the food supply globally is not looking good. Guest Wrote:> Talking to a good friend in Asia a few hours ago, he told me he I've had a growing feeling from some time that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is approaching a state of total panic. And I'm using the word "panic" in the Generational Dynamics sense of a financial panic, or a "let's bomb Pearl Harbor" type of panic. This is just a "feeling," but the events of the last week have made me "feel" that this panic is reaching a fever pitch. The nature of this panic comes from the fact that the CCP is suddenly facing several existential crises that it has no idea how to handle:
Each of these crises is existential in the sense that a bad outcome would threaten the collapse of the CCP (something like the Soviet communist party collapse in 1991, which haunts CCP officials every day). These are all ongoing crises. What's changed in the past few days, and this is why I'm getting this "feeling" of panic, was the devaluation of the yuan currency, which is a very big deal, and then the quick revaluation, along with the usual accusations directed at the US. The "feeling" I'm getting is one of desperation, that the CCP doesn't know what to do next. Add to that the fact that North Korea keeps launching short-range missiles (and I don't buy the claim that this being done under orders from Xi Jinping). Also there was a sharp global stock market semi-crash. All of this is just a "feeling" of panic. It might all disappear tomorrow. But the problems listed above will not go away, and the CCP has no solution for any of them. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2019 ** 06-Aug-2019 World View: China-Cambodia and the South China Sea
Peter E Wrote:> A new Chinese naval base in Cambodia has also crossed a red line I've come to the view in the last year that the "China dream" of world hegemony is complete fantasy, and is not something that even the Chinese military wants, since China is unable to govern itself, let alone govern the world. The conclusion that I reached is that China is pursuing a war of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan. That's why the book that I wrote ended up with the title "Was Between China and Japan." So my view is increasingly that China wasting a lot of money and resources with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and things like a naval base in Djibouti, since these will not support their primary objectives of Japan and Taiwan. At any rate, if China is building a naval base in Cambodia, then as you say it will probably be used to prevent defense of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan through the South China Sea. ---- Sources: -- Cambodia is the US-China rivalry’s latest front, as talk of base access alarms Washington https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3021172/cambodia-us-china-rivalrys-latest-front-talk-base-access-alarms (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 5-Aug-2019) -- China's Cambodian invasion https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/08/05/commentary/world-commentary/chinas-cambodian-invasion/#.XUn2yXspB_B (Japan Times, 5-Aug-2019) -- Why a New China Naval Outpost in Cambodia Would Matter https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/why-a-new-china-naval-outpost-in-cambodia-would-matter/ (Diplomat, 23-Jul-2019) -- Chinese construction boom in Cambodian town raises fears of secret military pact https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-26/chinese-construction-in-cambodia-raises-military-pact-fears/11345410 (Australia Broadcasting, 26-Jul-2019) ---- Related: ** 16-Dec-18 World View -- Cambodia denies major China-funded seaport project is a military base ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181216.htm#e181216 ** 17-Jan-19 World View -- Cambodia's Hun Sen threatens to kill opposition politicians if EU ends preferences ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190117.htm#e190117 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-07-2019 ** 07-Aug-2019 World View: Bond yields falling There are very long faces on CNBC this morning, at 8:40 am ET, because 10 year Treasury yields fell from 1.72% to 1.63% in the last two hours. If bond yields are falling rapidly, it means that a lot of investors are suddenly buying bonds (as a "safe haven") and selling stocks, and this matches a 300 point fall in DJIA futures when the market opens at 9:30 am ET. Steve Liesman on CNBC just rattled off a list of "shocking" things from the last 12 hours:
German bond yields just fell 4 basis points, with 10-year bund yields at a record low of -0.58%. (That means that when you buy a German bond, you don't get all your money back.) https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/another-day-another-record-low-for-german-bund-yields-20190807 All of these figures are signs of a deflationary spiral and a currency war. (A country can boost its exports by devaluing the currency, since that makes the country's export prices lower, compared to other currencies. When all countries do the same thing, it's called "a race to the bottom.") Yesterday, I wrote about a "feeling" of panic that I've been having. This morning's events extend that "feeling" of panic for another day. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-09-2019 ** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Reunification of Ireland with Northern Ireland From EuroIntel: Could a no-deal Brexit fuel unification for Ireland? With high chances of a no-deal Brexit, the debate about a border poll on uniting Northern Ireland and the Republic is re-emerging. While at this point such a scenario is still hypothetical even if the UK were to crash out of the EU without a deal in October, no-deal Brexit may well accelerate the the process and increase the likelihood of such a poll. A debate about it is always tricky as it easily engages the hearts more than the minds of unionists loyal to the UK, and of Irish nationalists who may think of unification as creating just a bigger Ireland. Leo Varadkar struck the right tone in Northern Ireland by saying that a united Ireland would be a different state with a different constitution. The process would not be one of annexation or territorial addition. He made no reference to German unification, or to former prime minister Enda Kenny. During his time in office Kenny received reassurance from the EU that after unification it would automatically re-admit Northern Ireland without the Republic having to reapply for EU membership. Ireland would gain more territory, that was it. One can see why this did not go down well with the unionists. Varadkar firmly put his feet on different ground. A new constitution, and a different if not a new state, would be the result of unification. The constitution of a united Ireland would have to sort out many differences. For once the official language in Ireland is Gaelic, while it is English in Northern Ireland. The head of state is the president in the Republic and the Queen for Northern Ireland. There are different anthems, currencies, measurements, flags and capitals. All emotional issues for many. But a new constitution is not so straightforward either, writes Newton Emerson. According to the Belfast agreement, two separate border polls would have to be held on the issue of unification. In the Republic a campaign for a new constitution could well alienate those who are fond of the existing one. In Northern Ireland, the argument for unification may have better chances to win as British politics is currently highly unpredictable, divisive, and against the basic interests of most in the North. Under a no-deal Brexit, unification suddenly becomes a credible goal. But to win this poll, the government has to stay clear of trouble with an alternative that neither sides will refuse. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-09-2019 ** 09-Aug-2019 World View: Resolving Ireland differences utahbob Wrote:> John, In Northern Ireland, it would not be smooth sailing for the I guess the most shocking thing about what you've written is that Polish is spoken more than Gaelic. Is that really true? It's been my opinion for over a year that the Brexit debate will end with a "no-deal Brexit." The reason is that a no-deal Brexit is the default option, and therefore it's the only option that doesn't require any group to negotiate and compromise with another group, and Gen-Xers are unable to negotiate and compromise. A lot of people think we're still in the 1990s, when the World War II survivors were running things. Those people were able to negotiate and compromise. But Gen-Xers are completely lacking in those skills, and replace them with total contempt and hatred for anyone who doesn't agree with them. So, Boris Johnson is in charge in Britain, and he favors the default option, which is no-deal Brexit on October 31. This is putting other politicians (the "remainers") into a panic, because once Brexit occurs, it's irrevocable. It's sorta funny that after the referendum passed in 2016, I wrote repeatedly that there was no solution to the Irish border problem -- not that no politician was clever enough to find a solution, but that no solution exists, given the imposed restraints (no tariffs between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and no tariffs between Northern Ireland and England, and Britain not in the EU). So now it's the Irish border problem that's forcing the no-deal Brexit. But of course that doesn't solve the Irish border problem either. There will still be tariffs and border posts separating Ireland and Northern Ireland. So trying to reunify Ireland would be a move of desperation. If it could be accomplished, then Northern Ireland and Ireland would both be in the EU (as they are today), so there would be no tariffs or border posts within Ireland. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the split in Ireland is a manifestation of the fault line between the indigenous Gaelic population vs the Scottish and English invaders. There have been centuries of generational crisis wars between these two populations, and the Gaelics have accused the English of genocide and ethnic cleansing. So there's a great deal of hatred and animosity between these groups, as evidenced by the continuing violent clashes in "The Troubles," which were only resolved by the Good Friday agreement in 1998. So you say that your family is on both sides -- the Nationalists (descendants of the invaders) and the Republicans (the indigenous Gaelics). So it must be a very interesting story about why you fled to America. So as you say, "it would not be smooth sailing for the Republic of Ireland to expand and absorb the north." However, to be fair, that's what Leo Varadkar is specifically rejecting. He's proposing a whole new Ireland, with a new constitution, which resolves such differences as languages, anthems, currencies, measurements, flags and capitals. That's a tall order, and it shouldn't take more than a century to reach agreement on all those issues. Related Articles: ** 2-Jan-19 World View -- Brexit chaos entangles issue of Iranian migrants crossing English Channel ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190102.htm#e190102 ** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181019.htm#e181019 ** 02-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180802.htm#e180802 ** 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e160626.htm#e160626 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down - John J. Xenakis - 08-09-2019 *** 10-Aug-19 World View -- Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kashmir locked down and isolated, as India changes its status **** Street protests in Srinigar, the capital city of the Indian-government portion of Kashmir, after Friday prayers (AP) Kashmir is a bitterly disputed region on the border between India and Pakistan. It's one of the four or five extremely volatile regions in the world where a local war could quickly spread into a larger regional war or even a world war. So a large surge in tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir in the last week is capturing worldwide attention. Two weeks ago, India sent tens or hundreds of thousands of troops into the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir with no explanation. It turned out that India deployed the vast army of troops to Kashmir in anticipation of violence that was likely to occur after last week's revocation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which makes Kashmir a semi-autonomous state of India. India did much more than send in troops. For the last few days, Kashmir has been locked down and isolated. The streets are deserted all day long, because of a strict curfew that requires everyone to stay at home. All phone and internet lines have been shut down, in order to prevent Kashmiris from communicating and planning a riot. Indian officials are concerned about a large backlash, once the curfew is lifted, and the events that occurred on Friday illustrate those concerns. The curfew was temporarily lifted for Friday prayers. Indian police used tear gas, pellets and live fire to fight back at least 10,000 anti-Indian protesters in Srinagar, Kashmir's capital city. Indian officials are concerned about what will happen on Monday, when there is a major Muslim festival of Eid Ul Azha. Eid Ul Azha ("Festival of the Sacrifice") is one of the holiest days on the Muslim calendar, and it commemorates the willingness of Abraham to sacrifice his son in obedience to Allah's command. **** **** Modi says revoking Article 370 will benefit Kashmir and all of India **** The region's last generational crisis war was the massive 1947 Partition War between Muslims and Hindus that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. An outcome of that war was that Kashmir was split into two, government respectively by Pakistan and India. Indian-governed Kashmir is populated mostly by Muslims. As a condition for giving control to India, Article 370 was added to India's constitution, giving Kashmir substantial autonomy over its own affairs. Importantly, another article — 35a — also barred people outside the state from buying property there to prevent India’s majority-Hindu population from moving into Jammu and Kashmir and displacing the Muslims who live there. A possibly unintended consequence of these laws was that girls from Kashmir could not marry men from outside Kashmir. The reason was that residents of Jammu and Kashmir had exclusive rights to property and state government jobs, among other privileges, and women marrying non-residents stood to lose those benefits. With the revocation of those laws, Kashmir is just another state within India, equivalent to all the other states. Girls can now freely marry outside of Kashmir, but the larger picture is Kashmir's affairs are now decided in New Delhi rather than in Srinigar. India's prime minister Narendra Modi has justified the revocation of Article 370 by saying that it's harmed the people of Kashmir in the last 70 years, and and that all it has done is to bring nepotism, separatism, and terrorism. He said that the "historic" decision would benefit all the people of Kashmir, and would benefit all of India. It's not surprising that Modi revoked Article 370, since he has wanted to do so for years, but many analysts are wondering about the timing - why now? According to some analysts, it's because of the Donald Trump administration. The US is negotiating to remove all of its troops from Afghanistan, and Modi may fear that this will fre up a new wave of terrorists to flood into Kashmir, and saw a need to act preemptively. Modi also may have been concerned by Trump's July meeting with Inran Khan, at which Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir problem for Pakistan and India. **** **** Pakistan furious at the revocation of Article 370 **** Some 8,000 supporters of the Pakistani political party Jammat-e-Islami demonstrated in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city (Sky News) Pakistani officials were caught by surprise by the revocation of Article 370, and have been expressing fury. Officials in Pakistan particularly point to the removal of restrictions on ownership of land and property by outsiders, which were embedded in Article 370. Removing these restrictions might lead to an influx of Hindu immigration into Kashmir, diluting the Muslim population. There were large anti-India protests in Pakistan's capital city Islamabad, with 8,000 demonstrators in the streets. One young man was quoted: "Yes, we are angry here. We don't want to fight. The last option is to fight ... but if we have to, we will get Kashmir by the sword, by ammunition and guns." Some Pakistani officials were calling for military action against India. Pakistan's close ally China said that it will "continue to support Pakistan in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests." Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan defused some of the anger by saying that instead of military action, they will use diplomatic action. Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic ties with India and suspended trade, and will bring the issue to the UN Security Council. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Jammu, Pakistan, Article 370, Srinagar, Eid Ul Azha, Festival of the Sacrifice, Donald Trump, Imran Khan, Afghanistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2019 ** 10-Aug-2019 World View: Generational memory and the future of Ireland FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> Gaeilge (the Irish language) hasn't been a majority language on For what it's worth, here's what the CIA World Factbook says: Quote:> English (official, the language generally used), Irish (Gaelic or FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK Why isn't reunification the right word? Wasn't Ireland unified under English rule prior to 1922? FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> There WILL be border "controls" between the Republic and Northern That seems pretty certain, doesn't it. FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> But the "New Troubles" won't likely last very long, as (the Now here we have a problem, because generations don't work that way. In fact, generations work in the opposite way. If two ordinary people have a bitter feud in their 20s, then forty years later, when they're in the 60s, the memories of the feud would have faded, and the two people will have reconciled. But it works the opposite way with generations. If two groups have a generational crisis war during the XX20s, then forty years later, in the XX60s, the memory of the war may have faded in the minds of the survivors, but for the generations growing up after the war, the feud does not fade, but is renewed. I believe that a significant part of the mechanism is as follows: The survivors of the war are completely traumatized, and spend the rest of their lives trying to make sure it never happens again. However, as their children are growing up, there are inevitably stories about the war, particularly bitter stories about the atrocities committed during the war. And, not surprisingly, the children in each group never hear about the atrocities committed by their parents, but only about the atrocities committed by the parents of the children on the other side. After the war, during the Recovery and Awakening eras, one side will inevitably be economically better off than the other, and that adds to the renewal of the "feud." In the following decades, the traumatized survivors try to prevent anything serious from happening, but they're only marginally successful, and once they're gone, a new full-scale war breaks out. With regard to children hearing only about atrocities committed by the other side, not by the atrocities committed by their own side: One thing I've noticed repeatedly is that people tell me that their grandparents fought in WW II but they refuse to talk about it. I believe that it's because they're ashamed of their own actions, including such things as rape or torture, which are pretty common on all sides in a generational crisis war. After all, if you're a soldier and you see a lone girl, and you know that her brother or father or uncle has just killed all your friends, why shouldn't you rape her? What have you got to lose? (Ironically, her brother killing all your friends is just an ordinary act of war, but you raping her is a war crime. Go figure.) But of course those become acts of shame when the war ends, but subjects of discussion when they were committed by the other side. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-10-2019 (08-10-2019, 12:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: FishbellykanakaDude> The Loyalists in The North will never relinquish their UK In that case, "reunification" would mean all of Ireland leaving the EU and rejoining the UK. That's not what people are talking about. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-11-2019 ** 11-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong protests - the tenth weekend This is the tenth consecutive weekend of anti-Beijing demonstrations in Hong Kong. Among the analysts I've seen on tv, there are two opposing views about how all this is all going to end. One view is that an invasion by the mainland army is imminent. The other view is that the protests will fizzle out a month from now when the schools open and the protesters go back to class, and then everything will go back to normal. The two views aren't necessarily in conflict, as Beijing could wait to see if the protests fizzle out, and then send in the army if they don't. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-12-2019 ** 12-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters shut down the airport
The Hong Kong protests have been going on for ten weeks, and have been getting smaller and more violent. A few weeks ago, there were as many as two million people in the Hong Kong street protests, out of a Hong Kong population of about 7 million. However, the protests have been getting smaller, and only thousands or tens of thousands of protesters participated over the weekend. The diminishing size of the protests has appaently motivated the activists to encourage more violence. Over the weekend, demonstrators put up barricades to block intersections and wore face masks for protection from police tear gas. Protesters surrounded the police station, and threw bricks at police. On Monday, Hong Kong airport was forced to cancel all flights out of the airport, as 5,000 anti-government protesters blocked the departure area. There have been reports that China's military (PLA) has been massing troops on the mainland in Shenzhen just outside Hong Kong. Beijing claims that just normal exercises.
Forcing the airport to close is a very serious act on the part of anti-government activists. It seems that as the size of the protests has dwindled, the activists have been doing more and more to provoke a military confrontation for their own self-interest. It's now Tuesday morning in Hong Kong, and the number of protesters in the airport has dwindled from thousands to hundreds. The airport is trying to restore operations. The Civil Human Rights Front, a group that has organized some of the largest rallies, announced that it would hold another “mass march” on Sunday, Aug. 18. ---- Sources: -- Hong Kong airport cancels all flights for the remainder of the day due to protests https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/hong-kong-airport-cancels-all-flights-over-protests.html (CNBC, 12-Aug-2019) -- Hong Kong / Airport Looks to Reopen Early Tuesday Morning: Hong Kong Update https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/government-urges-travelers-to-leave-airport-hong-kong-update (Bloomberg, 12-Aug-2019) -- Chinese armed police truck convoy rolls into city near Hong Kong https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3022479/chinese-armed-police-truck-convoy-rolls-city-near-hong-kong (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 12-Aug-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-12-2019 Closing the airport is really stupid on the part of the protesters. If you wanted to scare the average resident into embracing full integration into the mainland, cutting off contact with the outside world would be the way to do it. Hopefully it can get reopened on Tuesday. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-12-2019 ** 12-Aug-2019 World View: US and Turkey to create a 'bufferf zone' in northeast Syria
A US delegation arrived in Turkey on Monday to discuss creation of a "Joing Command Center" in Turkey to oversee the creation of a "buffer zone" in northeastern Syria. The meeting will take place in Sanliurfa, Turkey, near the border with Syria. The US is insisting on this plan, rather than Turkey's plan for a unilateral invasion of northeast Syria to push back the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which were allies of the US in defeating ISIS. Turkey's government considers the YPG to be terrorists, allied with the terror group Turkistan Workers' Party (PKK). The YPG were the fighters who did the actual fighting that destroyed the ISIS caliphate in northeast Syria. The US provided air support and heavy weapons. Turkey particularly objects to the YPG having possession of these heavy weapons which, they claim, can now be turned on Turkey, since the fight with ISIS is over. Turkey has for years been threatening to invade northern Syria to establish a 20-25 mile buffer zone within Syria along its northern border with Turkey. Turkey has never carried through with this threat, but now seems determined to do so, now that the US has been withdrawing its military. If Turkey goes through with its threat to enter Syria and unilaterally push back the YPG from Turkey's border, it could lead to a prolonged war between Turkey and the YPG, and the United States military may be forced to intervene. The Joint Command Center could be online in a few days. The US, Turkey and the Kurds have all agreed in principle to establish a buffer zone. However, there are some serious disagreements. The Kurds would like it to be 5 miles wide, while the Turks want it 25 miles wide. There are also disagreements about who will be in charge, and what role the YPG will play. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Damascus is categorically rejecting the establishment of a buffer zone under control of Turkey and the US, calling it "a blatant aggression on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity." ---- Sources: -- US, Turkey begin work to create Syria buffer zone https://www.france24.com/en/20190812-us-turkey-begin-work-to-create-syria-buffer-zone (AFP, 12-Aug-2019) -- US and Turkey start work on Syria border zone https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/12/syria-safe-zone-us-delegation-turkey/ (Defense Post, 12-Aug-2019) -- Intel: Why a military confrontation between Turkey and the Kurds in Syria might be good news for Russia https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/08/intel-military-confrontation-turkey-kurds-syria-russia.html (Al Monitor, 12-Aug-2019) -- Turkey can act on its own in northern Syria if US plan fails: Defense Minister http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/other-plans-if-syria-safe-zone-deal-does-not-work-defense-minister-145726 (Hurriyet, 12-Aug-2019) -- Syria strongly condemns continued destructive US interference in its affairs and rejects US-Turkish understandings https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=170065 (Sana, Damascus, 26-Jul-2019) -- Turkey to 'rip apart terror corridor' in Syria regardless of US talks: Erdogan https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/26072019 (Rudaw, Kurdistan 26-Jul-2019) -- US warns Turkey on Syria amid last-ditch talks to resolve buffer zone dispute https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/08/us-warns-turkey-syria-buffer-zone.html (Al Monitor, 6-Aug-2019) -- Syria government ‘categorically rejects’ US-Turkey buffer zone plans https://thedefensepost.com/2019/08/08/syria-rejects-us-turkey-buffer-zone/ (Defense Post, 8-Aug-2019) -- Turkey’s demand for a Syria buffer zone is about oil, not terror https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/turkeys-demand-for-a-syria-buffer-zone-is-about-oil-not-terror (Washington Examiner, 31-Jul-2019) -- Turkish assault on Kurdish-held Syria averted after agreement with US on 'safezone' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/07/turkish-assault-kurdish-held-syria-averted-agreement-us-safezone/ (Telegraph, London, 7-Aug-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-12-2019 It would be ironic if some of Turkey's S-400s end up shooting down Russian planes. |