Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 08-25-2019 (08-23-2019, 06:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan Neither the problem of Islamism nor that of Global Warming has a solution (yet), but some idiots want war between the US and China... RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-25-2019 ** 25-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong violence Guest Wrote:> Hong Kong police fired live rounds today during protests.
The police used water cannons, tear gas and live ammunition, while the protesters used bricks and petrol bombs (Molotov cocktails). October 1 will be the big Chinese independence day celebration. Xi Jinping will want to resolve the Hong Kong situation by them. The extremist activists will want to humiliate Xi as much as possible. However, public sentiment in Hong Kong will be to avoid violence. All these strands will come together in the next month, and we may get some clarity on where Hong Kong is going. Or, as one report says, the protests will be "settled or crushed" by October 1. ---- Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3024288/police-officer-fires-gun-water-cannon-used-first-time (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8/26/2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-26-2019 (08-25-2019, 01:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:(08-23-2019, 06:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-22-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan Never underestimate the power of hubris. Big egos want to be stroked, and some, like DJT, need it more than life itself. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-28-2019 ** 28-Aug-2019 World View: World War III Scenario CH86 Wrote:> OK then, you stated your conception regarding US The war is almost certain to start "in some place like kashmir, eastern europe/balkans or in central Asia?" As I've said, a world war begins with a small incident somewhere that expands into a regional war and then a world war over a period of months or years. America today does not want fight in another war, just as America didn't want to fight in another war in the late 1930s, until forced to do so by the Regeneracy, the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March. World War II actually began in 1937, with the Macro Polo Bridge incident, and it's forgotten today that Japan bombed and sank an American ship four years before Pearl Harbor. The sequence of steps that led from the beginning of WW II to American involvement could serve as a kind of template for what might happen today with China. Here are some paragraphs from my book: Quote: "America's long-standing friendship with China, Note that when Japan bombed and sank the USS Panay, America stayed neutral because the people didn't want to fight. And then when the war in Europe began, America stayed neutral because the people didn't want to fight. But the bombing of Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March caused the "Regeneracy," the political battles were put aside (despite the fact that FDR was even more divisive than Trump is today), and the country united behind FDR to fight the Japanese. Note also how heavily a "trade war" was part of this scenario. So a possible scenario today is that China will be in a ground war in Central Asia and, at some point, they decide they've run out of time. At that point they attack Japan and Taiwan, and also attack the US because they know that we'll defend Japan and Taiwan. That's one possible scenario for a Regeneracy today. But there's no path at all to a new American Civil War. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-28-2019 (08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: But there's no path at all Is this "no path" as in you haven't thought of one, or "no path" like there was no way to solve the Brexit Northern Ireland backstop problem? If the latter, additional explanation would be valuable. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-28-2019 ** 28-Aug-2019 World View: American Civil War (08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > But there's no path at all to a new American Civil War. (08-28-2019, 10:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Is this "no path" as in you haven't thought of one, or "no path" Sorry for the confusion. I've answered the question about a new American civil war many, many times, and I was alluding to something I wrote weeks ago: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=47147#p47147 There are ZERO chances of an American civil war. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-29-2019 Thanks. So, "no sign" of a "racial or ethnic" civil war. Civil wars don't have to be racial or ethnic, though. Political civil wars and revolutions look different. I can't see a racial or ethnic civil war in the US, but something along the lines of 20th century Communist revolutions I could see. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-29-2019 ** 29-Aug-2019 World View: How low can interest rates go? One of the big debates today is how low can interest rates go. So if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield (interest rate) of 2% per year, then after a year the bond will be worth $1020. But if you purchase a $1000 government bond with a yield of -0.5% per year, then after a year the bond will be worth %995. In other words, you have to pay the government to keep your money safe. Ten years ago, I heard analysts on tv say that interest rates could never go below zero. That was before interest rates started going below zero. Many countries today are offering bonds with negative yields. There are $17 trillion in investors' hands today with negative yields. Investors had to put their money somewhere, and rather than put it in the risky stock market, they have a country central bank keep the money safe, in return for a fee (defined by the negative yield). So for example on the German 10 year bund today, the yield is 0.69%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has been falling sharply recently, though it's still positive at +1.5% today. A lot of people believe that it will go negative before long. Today on Bloomberg tv, an analyst Alberto Gallo of Algebris Investments was asked the question about much more the German bund yield could fall. He said: Quote: There is a boundary around minus 1% where it's bettter RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-29-2019 If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too. Really only storing cash works in that situation. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-30-2019 (08-28-2019, 07:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 28-Aug-2019 World View: World War III Scenario I know you have strongly held views, but it's impossible to believe that anyone has been as divisive as DJT. FDR had some serious detractors, but Trump is actually building a potent opposition that may simply be unwilling to accept Trump 2.0, of that occurs. He's already a minority POTUS, and there is little doubt that, if reelected, he will be even moreso in 2021. That will be the third minority election in this century -- fully 50%! I can't see that being opposed quietly. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-30-2019 (08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too. Really only storing cash works in that situation. I would hope that we're not going to copy Germany, and pretend that we can't inflate our way past this. I think we've proven that handing money to the rich is a non-starter, so next time, it will be massive public works … as it should have been under Obama. Frankly, under Trump, programs like that would be hand-outs -- both ineffectual and impoverishing. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-30-2019 ** 30-Aug-2019 World View: CCP vs Hong Kong protesters on Saturday According to a Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) on Fox News: Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following: - Arrested some protest leaders - Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal - Moved a large number of troops into Shenzhen on Hong Kong's border - Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the demonstrators However, this correspondent says that he has just interviewed some of the extremists ("in an undisclosed location") and they're saying the following: - The peaceful protesters will stay at home - The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters - Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with confrontational protests and probably violence The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on. There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1. You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent, and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month, in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That suggests that the deadline for action is pretty much now. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-30-2019 ** 30-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong riot troops Another analyst has clarified something that I apparently misstated. I said that the CCP were sending more troops into Shenzhen. That's not what's going on. According to this analyst, the CCP has rotated out the troops that have been occupying barracks in Hong Kong for years, and is now replacing them with riot troops and riot vehicles. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-30-2019 Are we talking about a "pro-democracy" protest in Beijing, or a continuation of the Hong Kong protests? I wish you'd keep posting links to your sources. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 08-30-2019 (08-30-2019, 08:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too. Really only storing cash works in that situation. Neither public works nor handing money to the "rich", which from the left generally means "anyone who works for their money", have anything to do with inflation. Inflation is controlled by monetary policy, not fiscal policy. Jerome Powell is doing a good job of shifting the fed from a policy of erring on the conservative side on inflation - keeping inflation below 2% - to actually targeting a small amount of inflation - keeping inflation at or near 2%. As long as he manages that, I don't think we'll get into the situation Germany has. Of course, Germany's fertility rate of 1.47 provides strong pressure for a shrinking economy, so that makes their job harder. The US is at a near replacement level of 1.89, so we don't have as big a problem to deal with. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-30-2019 (08-30-2019, 09:54 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are we talking about a "pro-democracy" protest in Beijing, or a A pro-democracy protest in Hong Kong. This was a correspondent speaking on tv, so I didn't have a link. 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm - John J. Xenakis - 08-30-2019 *** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey **** Displaced Syrians are stopped trying to cross the border into Turkey (AFP) Hundreds of civilians in Syria's Idlib province on Friday tried to push across the border into Turkey. As the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia's army and air force, has been pushing farther into Idlib province, tens of thousands of additional civilians are being forced to flee their homes, and are moving northwest to the border with Turkey. There are three million civilians in Idlib, including hundreds of thousands of displaced people living in refugee camps in the northwest. About 70,000 people in Idlib are anti-Assad rebels, but al-Assad has declared all three million people to be "terrorists," and he's made it clear repeatedly that he plans to exterminate them like cockroaches. United Nations officials continue to express alarm at the continued attacks by al-Assad, and are fearing a major humanitarian disaster, as they try to flee into Turkey and are blocked. Turkey, which already hosts 3.5 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence since 2011, does not wish to have to host possibly a million more. Germany and other European countries are trying to pressure Turkey and Russia to bring al-Assad to heel, out of fear of another wave of Syrian refugees pouring across the border into Europe. **** **** Russia declares a farcical ceasefire **** With hundreds of Syrians pushing across the border into Turkey on Friday, we may be seeing the beginning of large wave of thousands of displaced people, with resulting alarm in Turkey and Europe. So Russia took hard-hitting action on Friday by declaring a "unilateral ceasefire," starting on Saturday morning. There has been one farcical ceasefire after another in the last eight years. As usual, Bashar al-Assad didn't agree to the ceasefire, and the anti-Assad rebels didn't agree to the ceasefire. Historically, al-Assad has always made a mockery of these ceasefires, and this one is sure to be no different. **** **** Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend **** Israel raised tensions in the Mideast last weekend by attacking Iranian assets in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. According to Israeli sources, the attacks in Iraq and Syria were airstrikes against components of precision guided missiles being transported from Iran to Lebanon for use by Hezbollah against Israel. Starting in 2012, Iran tried by failed to bring precision guided missiles into Lebanon, but Israeli airstrikes destroyed the missiles in transit each time. For the last three years, Iran has been tring to bring components into Lebanon, to be assembled into missiles there. The airstrikes in Iraq and Syria was targeting the components, according to Israeli sources. The situation in Lebanon was a little different. Israel did not launch airstrikes into Lebanon. Instead, Israel sent two unmanned drones into Lebanon to crash into targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital city. At first it appeared that the drones had been shot down by Hezbollah. Then it was reported that the drones were targeting guided missile comnponents, same as the Iraq and Syria airstrikes. However Debka, an analyst service based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but which sometimes gets things wrong, is reporting that the drone strikes into Beirut were actually a targeted assassination, targeting Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is the Iranian commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reports to. According to the report, the first of the two drones was unarmed on a reconnaissance mission to track the movements of Soleimani, but crash landed when a boy threw a rock at it. The the second drone was to kill Soleimani. Although the second drone did hit a car and explode, it did not kill Soleimani. Soleimani called the attack "insane." Hezbollah has threatened retaliation. There are concerns that last weekends multiple attacks were a first step in a new war by Israel against Iran and Hezbollah. This weekend, Israeli troops are on high alert near the Lebanon border. **** **** Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters **** Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the demonstrators However, a Fox News Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) said that he has just interviewed some of the extremists ("in an undisclosed location") and they're saying the following:
The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on. There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1. You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent, and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month, in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That suggests that the deadline for action is pretty close. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Qassem Soleimani, China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-31-2019 (08-30-2019, 10:05 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:(08-30-2019, 08:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-29-2019, 09:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If interest rates are below zero because the economy is shrinking, commodities like gold are likely to be decreasing in value too. Really only storing cash works in that situation. Nonsense on every point! First, handing money to the rich is exemplified by the last tax bill, that cut corporate rates (helping stock holders primarily), cutting rates on capital gains (ditto, in spades) and removing many deductions that are typically used by "anyone who works for a living". Second, the idea that monetary policy alone drives inflation is simply wrong. Putting money into circulation through borrowing or spending is little different, and $1T a year deficits simply aren't sustainable over a time period longer than a few years. They are unjustified in what is supposed to be a god economy. Warren Dew Wrote:Jerome Powell is doing a good job of shifting the fed from a policy of erring on the conservative side on inflation - keeping inflation below 2% - to actually targeting a small amount of inflation - keeping inflation at or near 2%. As long as he manages that, I don't think we'll get into the situation Germany has. Even Quantitative Easing, involving vast additions to the Fed balance sheet, didn't push inflation to 2%. We have low unemployment that is composed of far too many crappy jobs, with the crappy-jobs to good-jobs ratio steadily rising. If you want good jobs, at least until we figure out how to run the economy with few if any jobs, then big non-military spending programs are a must. We need infrastructure of all kinds everywhere. This should be a no-brainer. Warren Dew Wrote:Of course, Germany's fertility rate of 1.47 provides strong pressure for a shrinking economy, so that makes their job harder. The US is at a near replacement level of 1.89, so we don't have as big a problem to deal with. Germany has chosen to run surpluses on a continuous basis. Everyone else pays for that, and the pressure on them to back off, stimulate their economy with borrowing and fix their depleted infrastructure is getting louder. When Angela Merkle departs, who replaces her will determine whether the EU continues. The Germans are stubborn. I'm betting against. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-01-2019 ** 01-Sep-2019 World View: Russia Turkey Guest Wrote:> How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the Turkey is so centrally located, almost at the center of the geopolitical world, that there are no simple analyses. A generational crisis war is a threat to a country's existence and its way of life. The choice of allies and enemies at such a time is not an ephemeral political decision, but is based on core values and relationships that have developed over centuries. The easiest way to predict a country's choice of allies and enemies is to look at its choices of allies and enemies over previous crisis wars for centuries. Now, applying that test to Turkey, if we look back to the last two crisis wars -- World War I and the Crimean War -- we see that Turkey has had mixed relations with Nato countries and with Arab countries, but has always had Russia as an enemy. Russia and China have been enemies to their core, so they're going to be enemies. So Russia will be fighting both Turkey and China. It's often true that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but not entirely. Turkey has had deep historic relations with the Turkic groups in Central Asia, including the Uighurs in East Turkistan (China's Xinjiang province). So it's possible that Turkey and China will cooperate against Russia, but will end up fighting each other in Central Asia. Turkey's relation with the Arab world is similarly confusing. The Ottomans had Arab allies and enemies during the period of its collapse, and the enmities are becoming exposed again in the last three years with the vicious split between Saudi Arabia + UAE + Bahrain + Egypt vs Qatar and Iran, with Turkey siding with Qatar. There's a lot going on here that requires a deep analysis of Arab relations for at least a couple of centuries, but I don't have time to do it. ---- Source: -- Uighurs / Will Turkey and China Become Friends? https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/will-turkey-and-china-become-friends (WashingtonInstitute, 14-Aug-2019) ---- Related: ** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190831.htm#e190831 ** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190823.htm#e190823 ** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e151125.htm#e151125 2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repe - John J. Xenakis - 09-01-2019 *** 2-Sep-19 World View -- Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon border clash fizzles quickly, no repeat of 2006 war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Outbreak of hostilities on Lebanon-Israel border called worst since 2006 **** Israeli soldiers with artillery units near the country’s border with Lebanon (Guardian) Israel's army fired hundreds of artillery shells into southern Lebanon on Sunday, in response to a Hezbollah attack, launching two or three anti-tank missiles into an Israeli military base in northern Israel. There were no casualties on either side. Analysts are calling the cross-border shelling the worst hostilities between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah since the end of the 2006 war between them. Israel's army along the Lebanon border has been on high alert all week, since Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah promised retaliation for last week's drone strikes by Israel into targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital city. It now appears that neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants a war, and that the exchange of fire was just for show for domestic audiences. **** **** Israel's drone strike on Beirut targeted Iran's guided missile components **** In my article two days ago, I quoted a report from Debka saying that the drone attack was was actually a targeted assassination, targeting Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who is the Iranian commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah reports to. A web site reader has pointed out an alternative narrative that differs from the Debka report. As I often point out, Debka reports are based on Israeli military and intelligence sources, but they sometimes gets things wrong, and apparently Debka may have gotten the Beirut drone attack quite wrong. According to the report from the Metula News Agency, the drone attacks in Beirut were targeting a particular component, supplied by Iran, for building guided missiles, in particular an eight-ton Iranian propulsion fuel mixer. According to the report (translation): <QUOTE>"The industrial mixer in question was to be used to prepare missile propulsion fuel to improve their performance and increase their accuracy. It was supposed to be part of the Iran-Hezbollah program to modify the tens of thousands of primitive rockets in its possession in order to turn them into precision missiles. The equipment arrived from Iran was deposited in a storage place between residential buildings to dissuade the Israelis trying to destroy them. Hezbollah planned to take them to a safe place during the current week. ... These devices are essential to the rocket transformation program, according to the confession of a Shiite militiaman I met on site yesterday (Tuesday) while going to observe the place of the main explosion. If the mixer can be repaired or exchanged within a few weeks, the electronic control unit, packed with expensive components, will not be available for a few months. This, as long as it can be routed from Iran escaping the raids of the Israelis, who obviously know everything that happens here in Syria, Iraq and Iran, and who choose the best time to destroy equipment likely to disturb them."<END QUOTE> The Metula report goes on to deny other claims in the Debka report, particularly the claim that one of the drones crashed after a boy threw a rock at it. If the Metula report is correct, then it must be a major embarrasment to Debka that they got almost every detail of the story completely wrong. Hezbollah has thousands of unguided rockets, but few guided missiles. Israel has managed so far to thwart every attempt by Iran to supply Hezbollah with guided missiles. **** **** Echoes of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war **** Most journalists are comparing the situation today to the beginning of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near Israel's border with Lebanon. Israel went into a total panic, and rushed into war within four hours. There was no clear objective. Actually there was no objective at all, and no plan. The stated plans and objectives changed on a daily, sometimes hourly basis. Initially, Israel was going to use only air power. When that failed, they sent in troops. While Israel was in a generational Crisis era, Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era, and really didn't want to fight a war. I discussed this at length in 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah. I quoted Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying: <QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we are united, and we are really united, and the national army is doing its work according to the government, and the resistance [Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as well."<END QUOTE> The Lebanese feared, above all else, a repeat of something like the 1982 massacre at Sabra and Shatila, and considered that to be a worse possibility than Israeli bombers. So that explains why Lebanon and Hezbollah didn't want to fight in 2006. But why did Israel go into a state of chaotic panic? This panic is actually explained by the Generational Dynamics "58-Year Hypothesis." The 58-year Hypothesis says that when some sort of calamitous event occurs, something so horrific that it traumatizes the entire population, adults and children alike, then the population will panic in some way exactly 58 years later. That's because 5-10 year old children at the time of the calamitous event all retire or die or lose power, all at once, 58 years calamitous event, and it's this cohort of people who panic, because they suddenly realize that they'll be gone and the calimitous event could happen again, because they won't be around to prevent it. The calimitous event has to be non-political, and one that was preventable but not prevented, and the panic comes from a fear that it will be unprevented once more. The 58-year Hypothesis is reasonable, since it approximates the length of the active life of a cohort of people born in a given year, and it's supported by a lot of anecdotal evidence. There have now been so many examples of anecdotal evidence, that it might now be reasonable to call it the "58-Year Law." In the case we're discussing, 2006 Israeli-Lebanon war occurred 58 years after the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. That actually explains why Israel totally panicked and pursued the war that turned into a disaster for both Lebanon and Israel. There was a cohort of people who were afraid of a major new war between Jews and Arabs, and they acted on those fears. After the war ended, Lebanon appeared to be descending into chaos. Violence was increasing, and analysts and politicians around the world openly expressed fear of a major civil war in Lebanon between government (anti-Syrian) forces and (pro-Syrian) Hizbollah. This fear was almost universal, among international media, analysts and politicians. I wrote that the generational analysis of Lebanon had not changed, and that a civil war at that time was impossible. I wrote that there would be a major political battle and that, at some point, "a political winner would be declared -- either the current government or Hizbollah. But there won't be a civil war." That was the generational prediction, and it turned out to be true. Late in 2008, I received the following e-mail message from a web site reader: <QUOTE>"I am very impressed with your site, especially when looking at some of your past predictions. I was trapped in Lebanon during the fighting and everyone was in great fear that a civil war was in progress. You predicted that it would fizzle out, and it did."<END QUOTE> That brings us up to today, and Sunday's border clash between Hezbollah and Israel's army. Numerous journalists have been expressing anxiety that the border clashes would trigger a new war, like the abduction of the two soldiers in 2006. Well first off, the Israelis had learned their lessons from the 2006 war, and were certainly never going to allow themselves to panic again. They were completely crazy in 2006, but less crazy today. And Lebanon is still in a generational Awakening era, so neither side wants a war, and the cross-border shelling fizzled quickly. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Émile Geamil Lahoud, Sabra, Shatila, 58-year hypothesis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |