Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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17-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS - John J. Xenakis - 10-16-2016 *** 17-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS **** ISIS (Reuters) Iraq has announced that a major long-awaited battle has begun to recapture Mosul, the capital city of the province of Nineveh, from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a televised statement early Monday: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Our dearest people in Nineveh province, the victory > bell has rung, and the operations to liberate Mosul have begun. I > am announcing today the beginning of these heroic operations to > liberate you from the brutality and terrorism of ISIS. God > willing, we will meet soon on the ground of Mosul where we will > all celebrate the liberation and your freedom."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The US State Department tweeted: "Godspeed to the heroic Iraqi forces, Kurdish #Peshmerga, and #Nineveh volunteers. We are proud to stand with you in this historic operation." The US recently announced the deployment of 600 additional troops to aid in the battle, bringing the number of US personnel to more than 5,200. On Sunday morning, Iraqi aircraft dropped thousands of leaflets over Mosul, advising residents how to protect themselves. The leaflets said, "The Mosul liberation operation is close and it is time to clean Iraq of Daesh (ISIS)," and advised residents "to avoid ISIS shelters, try to stay indoors and shut doors and windows." Iraq's government is hoping for a quick victory and to avoid a humanitarian disaster. There are some 1.5 million people in Mosul, and Iraqi officials expect some 700,000 of them to flee Mosul. These people will have to be given a place to live and humanitarian aid. ISIS captured Mosul in June 2014, when the Iraqi army dropped their weapons and fled, allowing ISIS to take the city almost without firing a shot. The loss of ISIS was a major catastrophe for Iraq, not only for the loss of the city, but also because ISIS took control of vast storehouses of American weapons, and also looted the banks of billions of dollars. CNN and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurdistan) Related Articles
**** **** Sectarian violence may interfere with recapture of Mosul **** The Mosul operation is becoming as much a political battle as a military battle. The main issue is the use of Shia militias backed by Iran. When ISIS attacked the city of Ramadi, the Iraq army initially fled from ISIS forces, as they did in Mosul. So for the recapture of Ramadi, Tikrit and Fallujah, Iraq army forces were accompanied by Shia militias. After the cities were recaptured, the pro-Iranian Shia forces committed sectarian violence against the Sunni residents of the cities. Now many Sunni Muslims fear a repeat of that sectarian violence if Shia militias are permitted to participate in the military operation. This apparently is the expectation of the some of the Shia militias themselves. The leader of the pro-Iranian Ahl al-Haq militia Qais al-Khazali recently said that "the battle of Mosul is revenge for the killing of Hussein," referring to Hussein ibn Ali (or Husayn ibn Ali) who is considered to be a revered Shia saint who was killed in 680 at the Battle of Karbala, which was the seminal battle that resulted in the Sunni-Shia split. For this reason, Sunni tribal leaders in Nineveh are demanding that Shia militias be kept out of Nineveh and Mosul. According to one tribal leader, "we are concerned and fear for what will happen after ISIS. The possibility of personal revenge makes people afraid." According to officials in Turkey, numerous groups might participate in the operation: the U.S.-led coalition, Iraqi soldiers, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) peshmergas, Iranian forces, Shia forces, Turkey-backed local forces and even PKK terrorists. The US-led coalition could include forces from Britain, France, Australia and Denmark. Turkey agrees that Shia militias should not be involved in the recapture of Mosul, and they add that the same is true of Kurdish militias. Defense Minister Fikri Isik warns about the use of both Shia and Kurdish militias, and also offers Turkey's help: > [indent]<QUOTE>"If you try to clear Mosul [from jihadists] with > Shiite militias, you may start new chaos and a mess that would > last 100 years. We are talking about these with the U.S. What we > observe so far is that what we have been saying is being taken > into account. ... > > Let us give support to you for an operation to be conducted with > local groups of this region. If you are to clear Raqqa, don’t do > it with the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] or PYD [Democratic > Union Party] because they could cause bigger problems after Daesh > goes from the city."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Turkey has three main concerns: first, a potential sectarian rift between Sunnis and Shias, second, a new refugee crisis, and third, creation of a vacuum that would other terror groups to grow. However, Iraq is strongly opposed to Turkey's participation. Some analysts are questioning whether Iraq's army can be successful in recapturing Mosul, unless it has the help of Shia, Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Rudaw (Iraq - Kurds) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Nineveh, Mosul, Haider al-Abadi, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Iran, Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali, Ramadi, Tikrit, Fallujah, Turkey, Fikri Isik Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 18-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participationin Mosul - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2016 *** 18-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation **** Kurdish Peshmerga forces in operation to liberate Mosul on Monday (Anadolu) Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Monday that Turkey will take part in the operation to recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh): > [indent]<QUOTE>"They say Turkey should not take part in the > operation. How can Turkey not take part in the operation when it > shares a 350-kilometer border with Iraq and receives all the > terror threats from there? We have brothers in Mosul, Arabs, > Turkmens and Kurds. If you go further north, we have > relatives."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Turkish troops have been operating since 2014 in the Bashiqa military base in northern Iraq near Mosul, along the border with Turkey. Turkey has an estimated 2,000 troops in Iraq, around 500 of them in Bashiqa training about 1,000-2,000 Sunni Iraqi militia fighters in preparation for the Mosul operation. On Thursday of last week, Iraq's foreign ministry in Baghdad summoned the Turkish ambassador. Iraq said that the Turkish forces in Bashiqa were "occupying forces" and "should be immediately withdrawn." Turkey refused to withdraw, and was able to produce a video of a December 2014 video in which Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi asked for "military, intelligence, arms and training support" from Turkey. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) **** **** Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey **** In Thursday's statement, Erdogan reaffirmed that Turkey will do what is necessary in Mosul, and will not take directions from Iraq's prime minister. Turkish officials are saying that the Mosul operation is a threat to the security of Turkey for several reasons:
The concerns are real. The Mosul operation will be led by Iraq's army (the one that dropped their guns and fled for their lives as ISIS fighters approached Mosul in 2014). The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will have other participants besides the Iraqi army -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia militias. These participants have a common objective -- to recapture Mosul from ISIS. However, once the recapture is complete, these participants will all have different objectives. In particular, just as Turkey wants to retain its influence in Mosul, the other participants will also want to maximize their own influence. So far, none of these conflicting objectives has influenced the first day of the military operation. But it's still possible that this situation will cause major problems down the road. CNN and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC Related Articles
**** **** ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria **** Among all the analyst opinions, there seems to be little doubt that the recapture of Mosul will succeed. There are a wide variety of opinions on how long it will take, how many civilians will be killed, how much of the city will be destroyed, how big the humanitarian disaster will be, and whether new terror groups will fill the vacuum when ISIS is gone. But analysts seem unanimous in believing that the Iraqi force of 30,000, backed by US-coalition airstrikes, will succeed in defeating the 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul. The loss of Mosul will be a huge symbolic loss for ISIS. It's the largest city that ISIS has captured -- even larger than Raqqa in Syria. Even more important, it's the city where ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi declared his "caliphate." However, some analysts say that Iraq is hoping that ISIS will flee without fighting. Iraqi forces have been surrounding Mosul and blocking exits from the north, east and south, but they're leaving a corridor open to the west, hoping that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria. According to one analyst, ISIS commanders are aware that they're going to lose the battle, and that many of their forces will be killed, so they may decide to withdraw their best fighters, and leave the newbies behind to fight and be killed. Other analysts aren't so sure. One of them points out that ISIS fighters fleeing to the west will be easy targets for US airstrikes, and so ISIS commanders may feel they have no choice but to stand and fight. Washington Post and Business Insider (Australia) and Economist KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Bashiqa military base, Haider al-Abadi, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-Oct-16 World View -- Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deterior - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2016 *** 19-Oct-16 World View -- Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deteriorates over Syria This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Egypt votes for two contradictory UN Security Council proposals on Syria **** From 2015: Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, left, walks with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Riyadh (Reuters) The war in Syria, and particularly the targeting by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad of millions of innocent Sunni Arab civilians, has caused a split in the Arab community, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This has led to Egypt's representative voting for two contradictory UN Security Council resolutions. The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been targeting millions of innocent Sunni women and children with barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs. Thousands of Sunni jihadists from dozens of countries around the world came to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting in the creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al-Assad, backed by Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, has not only created ISIS, but he's caused millions of Syrians to flee their homes into neighboring countries, including over a million that have flooded into Europe, causing the biggest refugee crisis since the end of WW II. Al-Assad and the Russians have created the greatest geopolitical disaster so far this century. Although several Western politicians have denounced al-Assad, Russia and Iran as war criminals and guilty of crimes against humanity, the UN Security Council has been powerless to do anything to stop al-Assad's war of extermination. The farcical impotence of the UN Security Council has been evident for months, especially as al-Assad and the Russians have made it clear that they plan to destroy east Aleppo and kill as many of the 250,000 civilians as they can. On October 8, France submitted a proposal to the UNSC for a no-fly zone over Aleppo to protect civilians. Russia vetoed this proposal, and then submitted its own proposal that all the "terrorists" be killed in Aleppo before a ceasefire can begin. The farce reached new heights when the ambassador from Egypt supported both proposals. Egypt was joined by Russia, China, and Venezuela in its support for the Russian resolution. Egypt's ambassador Amr Abul Atta defended the two votes: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Egypt backs all efforts aimed at stopping the Syrian > people’s tragedy. It voted for both resolutions based on their > content, not political bidding that has become a hindrance to the > Security Council’s work. > > Egypt voted for halting deliberate targeting of Syrian civilians, > backing for humanitarian access and cessation of hostilities > according to relevant Security Council resolutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Saudi Arabia severely criticized Egypt's vote supporting the Russian resolution. Saudi's ambassador Abdallah Al-Mouallimi said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Egyptian vote represents the Egyptian position > and not the Arab one. It was painful to see that the Senegal and > Malaysian positions were closer to the Arab consensus on Syria > compared to that of an Arab representative."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Another Saudi official tweeted: "Sorry Egypt. But voting for the Russian draft resolution makes me doubt you are the mother of Arabs and the world." Daily News Egypt and Gulf News (Dubai) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Egypt Independent Related Articles
**** **** Saudis retaliate against Egypt, which may turn to Iran for oil **** Following Egypt's vote in the UN Security Council, the Saudi government-owned oil company Aramco suspended its oil deliveries to Egypt, possibly violating a five-year agreement. Aramco is under a commercial contract to deliver 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products to Egypt at reduced prices. The $23 billion agreement was signed between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) during the visit of Saudi King Salman to Egypt last year. Iran has offered Egypt refined oil products to replace the products that the Saudis will not deliver. Relations between Egypt and the Gulf Arab states changed markedly after Egypt's army coup in 2013 that overthrew the democratically elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. Both Qatar and Turkey are allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, and the coup turned both countries against Egypt. Qatar had been providing aid to the Morsi government, but that aid stopped, and Saudi Arabia stepped in to help Egypt. Turkey has remained relentlessly hostile to Egypt's current president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi who, as an army general, led the coup that ousted Morsi. Saudi Arabia has attempted to play a mediating role between Egypt on the one hand and Turkey and Qatar on the other hand. However, the Saudi mediating effort is apparently wearing thin, as the long-standing differences between the two countries have now become painfully public because of the UN Security Council vote. However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries. These new developments in the Mideast, along with Egypt's good relationship with Israel and its new relationship with Iran may appear to signal that Egypt will be allied the West. However, the situation is more complicated than first appears. As the Saudis themselves have been pointing out, their disagreement is with Egypt's government, not with Egypt's people. Egypt is badly split following the ouster of Mohammed Morsi, and this split will be carried into any major Mideast war or world war. MEMRI and Middle East Eye and Hellenic Shipping News and Middle East Eye Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, A;e[[p. Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Russia, Hezbollah, Iran, Amr Abul Atta, Abdallah Al-Mouallimi, Aramco Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Oct-16 World View -- Unrealistic expectations surround battle to recapture Mosul - John J. Xenakis - 10-19-2016 *** 20-Oct-16 World View -- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS **** Homes destroyed by ISIS east of Mosul (Reuters) With the Iraq army's great battle to recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) under way since Monday, politicians and military leaders are issuing the confident statements that things are going well. The press has been reporting that the military operation is already "ahead of schedule," which presumably means that the schedule for the first day or two was specifically designed so that the army couldn't fail. The Iraqi politicians and military leaders are claiming not only to be ahead of schedule, but also to have everyone's agreement on how the battle will go. Specifically, Turkey's troops will not take part at all, and when the final battles are being fought, then the Kurdish militias and the Iran-backed Shia militias will wait outside Mosul, and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. It sounds an awful lot like a fairy tale. The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will consist of many groups of participants -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia militias. These participants all save defeating ISIS as an objective, but when the battle is over, they all want to have as much influence in Mosul and control over events as possible. To imagine that all these other participants will simply cede control to the Iraq army seems like a fantasy. We've already had the following:
Maybe all will go as Iraqi leaders have planned -- the participants will do as they're told, the battle will be quick, and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. But there are powerful forces at play, and powerful constituents, and they won't be stopped by a simple agreement, especially when something goes wrong. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Dow Jones Related Articles
**** **** Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire **** When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, troops from Greece, Armenia, France and Italy occupied Istanbul and partitioned much of the land previously controlled by the Ottomans. Turkey's War of Independence began in 1919, and continued until 1923, with Turkey's forces led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the revered founder of modern Turkey. In 1920, the Ottoman Parliament approved a document known as Misak-i Milli, or the Turkish National Oath, which laid out Turkey's conditions for achieving peace, including a demand that "The future of the territories inhabited by an Arab majority at the time of the signing of the Armistice of Mudros will be determined by a referendum." However, when peace was finally achieved by the Lausanne Peace Treaty in 1923, many of the demands of the Turkish National Oath were not met. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the Turkish National Oath in his speeches. According to Turkish media, he sees the treaties that ended World War I as defining new national boundaries for the entire Mideast, and he sees the current wars in Syria and Iraq as a process of redrawing those boundaries for the first time in almost a century -- or as a plot by the West, the Kurds, Iran and other foreigners to divide up the Syria and Iraq among themselves. Among the regions that Turkey was forced to give up in 1923 were parts of northern Syria and Iraq, including Mosul in Iraq and Manbij in Syria. Erdogan believes that if the Mideast boundaries are going to be redrawn, then Turkey must take part aggressively, or else be humiliated again as happened with the Lausanne Peace Treaty almost a century ago. Thus, in Erdogan's view, Turkey must take part in the Mosul operation, and Erdogan must eject Kurdish militias from northern Syria, where Turkey has been fighting Operation Euphrates Shield. The Kurds are aware of this, of course, as they're trying to create their own state of Rojava in a region stretching from the Mediterranean to Iran in northern Syria and Iraq, along the border with Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that anything like that would be intolerable. Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is now governing only a small fraction of the original Syria, mockingly called "Alawite-istan," in the west. Al-Assad is planning destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as many of the 250,000 Sunni civilians living there are he can, using barrel bombs, cluster bombs, chlorine, phosphorous bombs and bunker bombs, as well as Russia's warplanes. Aleppo is currently under siege, with no food or supplies able to enter the city. Turkey has vowed to attack the city of Manbij in northern Syria, to eject the Kurds and the last of the ISIS fighters. As it turns out, Manbij is not far from Aleppo. Some analysts are suggesting that Turkey might try to break the siege on Aleppo. Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics has been predicting a major Mideast war. We've mentioned several possible scenarios how such a war might begin. Possibilities include a war between Israelis and Arabs, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a war between India and Pakistan spreading to the Mideast. Each of these wars would create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Now we must add another possible scenario. Turkey has become increasingly nationalist, especially since the July 15 attempted coup, and Turkey may end up fighting Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and al-Assad, attempting to recover the territory lost by the peace treaties that followed World War I. As in the other cases, this would create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds) and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Kurdistan 24 and Hurriyet (Ankara) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Bashiqa military base, Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield, Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Masoud Barzani, Mustafa Kemal Atatürkm Misak-i Milli, Turkish National Oath, World War I, Lausanne Peace Treaty, Manbij, Aleppo, Rojava Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 21-Oct-16 World View -- Aleppo bombings in 'humanitarian pause' - John J. Xenakis - 10-20-2016 *** 21-Oct-16 World View -- Aleppo bombings in 'humanitarian pause' as residents await Russia's death blow This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's warship fleet sails through English Channel to Syria **** Ghostly image of bombed out Aleppo (CNN) Russia's Northern Fleet, which Russian media describes as as “the most powerful Russian naval task force to sail in northern Europe since 2014," will pass through the English Channel on Friday on its way to the eastern Mediterranean. It's believed that it will be used to deliver a massive blow to the hundreds of thousands of residents of Aleppo in Syria. The fleet includes the flagship aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov. It also includes a nuclear-powered battle cruiser, Pyotr Velikiy, and two Udaloy Class Destroyers. The Admiral Kuznetsov itself is capable of carrying 50 war planes. Russia already has about 10 ships off Syria, which have fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria. Some fears of war have been expressed in European media because Russia is sending such a large fleet through UK territorial waters. However, it seems pretty clear that the fleet will simply continue traveling south, to be used with the intended objective of killing as many of the residents of Aleppo as possible. Britain's Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said, > [indent]<QUOTE>"When these ships near our waters we will man-mark > them every step of the way. We will be watching as part of our > steadfast commitment to keep Britain safe."<END QUOTE>[/indent] British and Norwegian ships and Swedish reconnaissance aircraft will be monitoring the Russian fleet with a view to gaining as much intelligence as possible. BBC and CNN and Russia Today **** **** Russia extends 'humanitarian pause' in Aleppo Syria **** When I was in college, one of the other kids kept a large snake in a glass cube in his room. I asked how he fed the snake. He said that once a month he'd put a live mouse into the cube. After a few days, the snake would eat the mouse. He told me that "in the meantime, the mouse would be a nervous wreck, because he knew what was going to happen." That must be how the hundreds of thousands of residents of Aleppo feel right now. Russia has extended its "humanitarian pause" on air strikes for an additional 24 hours, but everyone knows that once the "pause" ends, Russian and Syrian warplanes will resume their destruction of Aleppo, including hospitals and civilian neighborhoods, using barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs. Russia has also announced that six corridors were opened for civilians who want to escape the impending slaughter. This is presumably a use of another weapon of war by the Russians and Syrians -- trying to create a new flood of hundreds of thousands more refugees, to add to the millions who are already flooding into neighboring countries and Europe. At any rate, it's believed that only a few hundred refugees have left Aleppo, for fear that they would be easy targets if they attempted to flee. Some analysts have suggested that the purpose of the announcement of the "six corridors" is to be able to claim that the hundreds of thousands of civilians left in Aleppo, including women and children, must be "terrorists," to be killed by Syrian and Russian warplanes. However, there is a logical contradiction. Russian media is saying that the reason that civilians haven't been fleeing Aleppo through the six corridors is because the terrorist rebels are telling them that they'll be shot if they try to leave. This claim contradicts the claim that the only civilians left in Aleppo are "terrorists." At any rate, the Russian and Syrian destruction of Aleppo is expected to resume on Friday afternoon. Within a few more days, it's expected to be followed even more massive destruction from the warplanes and cruise missiles delivered by the new Russian naval fleet headed for the eastern Mediterranean. According to one analyst I heard, the plan is for the destruction of Aleppo to be complete on the day before the US presidential election. Washington Post and BBC and Russia Today Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Northern Fleet, Admiral Kuznetsov, English Channel, Britain, Michael Fallon, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 22-Oct-16 World View -- France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais - John J. Xenakis - 10-21-2016 *** 22-Oct-16 World View -- France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais **** Aerial view of 'The Jungle' refugee camp in Calais France (CNN) France has announced that it will begin on Monday demolishing the migrant camp in Calais known as "The Jungle." The 6,500 to 10,000 migrants living in the camp will be given two choices: Either to be deported back to their home countries, or to stay in some 300 temporary refugee centers across France, where they can apply for asylum. Children who can prove that they have relatives in Britain may be allowed to travel to their family members. The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel. Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking country. Refugees risk their lives by attempting to jump onto trucks that are headed through the EuroTunnel. Over the last three or four years, the refugee camp has become squalid, unsanitary and unsafe for most people, especially women and children. Attempts to move people out of the camp in the past have led to confrontations with police. On Monday, sixty buses are scheduled to transport 3,000 migrants to alternate refugee centers in other parts of France. Activists are claiming that they've come this far because they're desperate to reach Britain, and they'll resist being forced to leave. Furthermore, activists say, they'll simply return to Calais as soon as they have a chance. Reuters and Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) and CNN Related Articles
**** **** Italy struggles with the 'mini-Calais' refugee camp in Ventimiglia **** Last week, Italian police with guns surrounded a small refrigerated van after a car chase, just before the van was going to cross the border into Italy. When they opened the back of the van, they were shocked to find 17 migrants in there. One passenger said he had paid 50 euros to a human trafficker to make the trick, and had feared suffocating inside the van. The incident occurred in Ventimiglia, an Italian city on the border with France, opposite the French city of Menton. This area is often called "Mini-Calais" because every week hundreds of migrants try to cross the mountain passes and tunnels along the border either by foot or by hiding in vehicles. Those who succeed and are caught in France are sent back to Italy. More than 24,000 refugees have been residing in Ventimiglia, where living conditions are getting steadily worse. That number is expected to increase, as more migrants arrive in Italy from North Africa. More than 145,000 have made the journey across the Mediterranean so far this year. EuroNews and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, The Jungle, EuroTunnel, Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria, Menton, Ventimiglia, Italy, Libya Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China - John J. Xenakis - 10-22-2016 *** 23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China **** Xi Jinping and Rodrigo Duterte meeting in Beijing last week (CNN) Media headlines in the past couple of days have been saying things like "Duterte's flip-flop into bed with China is a disaster for the United States" and "While we watched the debate, the Philippines aligned with China." The headlines are referring to the new Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte. He announced a cutoff of relations with the United States first by calling President Obama the "son of a whore." Then he visited Beijing, where he was given a red carpet welcome by China's president Xi Jinping, and made the following announcement to thunderous applause in the Great Hall of the People: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation > from the United States. Both in military... not maybe social, but > economics also, America has lost. I will be dependent on you. ... > > I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will > also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are > three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia. > > Americans are loud, sometimes rowdy. Their larynx is not adjusted > to civility."<END QUOTE>[/indent] In a world where politicians are constantly making ridiculous statements, this isn't the most ridiculous recent statement (pretty much anything from Vladimir Putin is worse), but it's close. For one thing, the Philippines does $24 billion in annual trade with the US. For another thing, the Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the US which has been in force since 1951 where both countries pledge to come to each other’s defense in the event of an armed attack, and Duterte alone does not have the power to abrogate the treaty, nor would the Philippine people want him to. LA Times and Inquirer (Philippines) Related Articles
**** **** Duterte's statement generates backlash at home **** As I've been writing for years, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history. And in this case, the will of the people is pretty evident from polls conducted by Pew Global research: Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States. A recent survey shows that 55% of Philippines people have "little trust" in China, while only 11% feel the same about the United States. In fact, Philippine senators crossed party lines and warned Duterte to back down. According to the Senate minority leader: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Any drastic shift in our foreign policy direction > should be well-thought-out and not simply blurted out. It should > be a product of deep study and wide discussion. Because of its > far-reaching implications, it cannot be an announce now, study > later thing. > > Yes, our relations with the United States may not be perfect. But > a country which has illegally built a great wall of sand in our > seas is not, and far from, the epitome of a good friend > either."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Other politicians called him a madman and delusional. Duterte's spokesman "clarified" Duterte's statement by saying that he just wanted to "separate the nation from dependence on the U.S. and the West and rebalance economic and military relations with Asian neighbors" like China, Japan and South Korea. The Chinese people are skeptical as well. China's politicians and media have remained mostly silent about Duterte's comments, but people on social networks see it as a ploy to get investments and loans from China. Some likened his “separation” from the United States to a new social phenomenon in China in which people make use of fake divorces to get around restrictive regulations in order to obtain a second housing loan. So Duterte's announcement present an interesting case study for Generational Dynamics. China and the Philippines will never be friends, because their respective populations hate each other. It's not the politicians who decide policies, but the people. Inquirer (Philippines) and Pew Global - Philippines - China and Pew Global - Philippines - US and International Business Times (Singapore) **** **** Philippines president Duterte apparently cedes Scarborough Shoal to China **** In his trip to China last week, Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte may have ceded Scarborough Shoal to China. In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea, and said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been > a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities > and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official > vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully > prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in > traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China has been using its vast military power to build artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea both in international waters and in waters that are part of other countries. In 2012, China forcibly invaded and annexed Scarborough Shoal, and used military threats to prevent Philippine fishermen from fishing there. So when Duterte went to China to declare "separation" from the United States, many fishermen hoped that Duterte would regain access to Scarborough Shoal. But apparently Duterte didn't even try. When he was asked about it, he said: "We cannot win that ... Even if we get angry, we'll just be putting on airs. We can't beat China." Later, Duterte said: "I leave it to them to, it’s one of the things I said that in the private talks which I cannot, but tingnan natin [let us see]. Let us see what develops in the days to come." So Duterte really got nothing except promises. He got promises of loans and investments, and he apparently got a promise that China would allow the Philippines to do a little bit of fishing there. We've seen the US administration concede one thing after another to Iran for the nuclear deal and to Russia for a farcical ceasefire in Aleppo Syria. Duterte is doing the same thing with Russia. For those of you who, like me, wondered for years how it was possible for Britain to appease Hitler, you're seeing it happen here. This is how the world works. Defense One and International Business Times (Singapore) and Philippine Star and CNN Philippines Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte, China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 24-Oct-16 World View -- South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Crim - John J. Xenakis - 10-23-2016 *** 24-Oct-16 World View -- South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt **** International Criminal Court in the Hague (Getty) A week after Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague, South Africa's president Jacob Zuma announced that it would do the same. In each case, the withdrawal becomes effective one year after the ICC receives notice. South Africa's action was triggered by Burundi's withdrawal, and also because the ICC criticized Zuma's administration for failing to arrest Sudan's leader Omar al-Bashir when he visited Johannesburg for an African Union summit last year. The ICC was set up in 2002 by the Rome Statute, which 123 countries have ratified, although the US is notably absent. Its purpose is to bring to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes -- terms that are all defined in detail in the Rome Statute. However, in its 16 year existence, it's only prosecuted African states. Since 2014, the African Union has urged member states not to co-operate with the ICC, accusing it of being racially biased against Africa. Uganda, Kenya and Namibia have also discussed withdrawing from the ICC. For South Africa, the government is currently in chaos because of corruption accusations leveled at Jacob Zuma. Zuma's opposition Democratic Alliance is opposed to the decision, as described by James Selfe, a leading official: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Democratic Alliance is disgusted at this > decision. We think it sends out an entirely incorrect message > around our commitment to human rights and our abhorrence of human > rights abuses and of genocide, and we believe that it would set > back our foreign policy and the way in which South Africa is > viewed in a very fundamental way. > > We also believe that the decision itself has been taken in a way > which is unconstitutional, unlawful. Accordingly, we will we will > be lodging papers in the constitutional court on Monday morning > seeking the court’s ruling seeking that it reviews and sets aside > this decision by the South African government."<END QUOTE>[/indent] According to activist opposition leader Mosiuoa Lekota: > [indent]<QUOTE>"This government continues to destroy all the good and > hard work that the former Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo > Mbeki spent many years to build. Now everything has been thrown > out of the window." > > Pulling out of the ICC will expose our children to war crimes in > South Africa without recourse to a higher court."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Selfe added that a decision to withdraw from the ICC would require a vote by the parliament. Times Live (South Africa) and VOA and BBC and Foreign Policy Related Articles
**** **** Is the ICC racially biased against Africans? **** It's just an accident of history that the ICC appears to be biased against Africans. There have been war crimes trials against other nations, but they've taken place in other courts. The African nation whining about bias know this, but they're looking for an excuse to avoid being held responsible for their crimes, even though it's the victims of the crimes that really want to see the court trials take place. There are trials targeting the Khmer Rouge for their alleged war crimes in Cambodia's "killing fields" war in the 1970s, but that trial is being held in the "Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia" (ECCC) in Angk Snuol, Cambodia. There's a trial targeting Ratko Mladic for atrocities committed at the 1995 Srebrenica massacre in the Bosnian war, but that trial is being conducted in a special court called the "International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia" in The Hague. There were trials in 1945 for Nazi war criminals, but they were held in special courts in Nuremberg, Germany. Japan's war crimes trials were held in 1946 in the International Military Tribunal for the Far East (IMTFE) in Tokyo. So, taken as a whole, war crimes courts have certainly not specifically targeted Africa. Deutsche Welle and Human Rights Watch and Rome Statute creating the ICC Related Articles
**** **** The fallacy of prosecuting war crimes **** Since World War II, this idea of prosecuting genocide and war crimes has been latched on to as a way to save the world. Ever since the Nuremberg trials of Nazi leaders, "Never again!" must have uttered by politicians thousands of times, referring to the Holocaust. And yet the Nuremberg trials didn't prevent Mao Zedong from killing 45 million people in the Great Leap Forward genocide (1958-59); didn't prevent Pol Pot from killing 8 million people in the Cambodia Killing Fields genocide (1975-79); didn't prevent 8 million people from being killed in the Rwanda genocide (1994); didn't prevent Robert Mugabe from committing the Operation Gukurahundi genocide in Zimbabwe (1984); and isn't preventing Bashar al-Assad from committing genocide in Syria today, with the help of war criminals Vladimir Putin of Russia and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei of Iran. Shakespeare wrote in Venus and Adonis: "Were beauty under twenty locks kept fast, Yet love breaks through and picks them all at last," a couplet that's often summarized as "Love laughs at locksmiths." Just as love laughs at locksmiths, war crimes laugh at the ICC. No one could seriously believe that Adolf Hitler would have cancelled the Holocaust out of fear of being prosecuted by some court. Or that Mao Zedong would have canceled the Great Leap Forward for a similar reason. The whole concept is absurd. Love, sex and genocide are all part of the base human DNA. They do not respect skin color, geography, race or religion. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they are part of every human's core makeup, and they are the way the world works, whether we like it or not. So the politicians in South Africa and Burundi see Bashar al-Assad in a full-scale genocide in Syria, and they're asking, "Why the hell is the ICC picking on us Africans? Go pick on Bashar al-Assad, and just let us go on committing atrocities, torturing, mutilating and exterminating people we dislike, and stop bothering us about it." Shakespeare: Venus and Adonis KEYS: Generational Dynamics, International Criminal Court, ICC, Burundi, South Africa, Jacob Zuma, Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, Mosiuoa Lekota, Cambodia, Khmer Rouge, Killing fields, Ratko Mladic, Srebrenica massacre, Bosnian war, James Selfe, Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler, Nuremberg, Japan, Holocaust, China, Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward, Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe, Operation Gukurahundi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Russia, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Iran, Shakespeare, Venus and Adonis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 25-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq - John J. Xenakis - 10-24-2016 *** 25-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** In Iraq, Turkey's artillery and possibly its jets are helping recapture Mosul from ISIS **** Iraqi tribesmen protest the presence of Turkish troops in northern Iraq (Getty) There is a growing perception in Turkey that the Mideast borders, especially those of Syria and Iraq, are being redesigned, and Turkey wants to be sure to recover some of land lost in World War I. In Iraq, Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the Ottoman empire, and any attempt to change is demographic composition would be a direct threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that the population would be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming from Iran. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in a war of words with Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who demanded that Turkey withdraw its troops and tanks from Iraq. Recently, Erdogan responded to al-Abadi: > [indent]<QUOTE>"You are not my interlocutor. You are not at my > level. You are not my equivalent. You are not of the same quality > as me. > > Your screaming and shouting in Iraq is of no importance to us. > You should know that we will go our own way."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Turkey has for weeks been training Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) near Mosul. On Monday, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkish artillery fire is being used to aid the Kurdish Peshmerga forces fighting ISIS, and four Turkish fighter jets are on standby to take part in air operations. Al-Abadi has repeatedly said that Iraq does not want Turkey's help. Turkey continues to insist that it must take part in the recapture of Mosul from ISIS to protect its own interests. Iraq's fear is that Erdogan will get his wish, and that part of Iraq, especially the region around Mosul, will become part of Turkey. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and BBC Related Articles
**** **** In Syria, Turkey attacks both Kurds and ISIS near Aleppo **** Turkey's military says that it struck dozens of ISIS and Kurdish YPG militia targets on Monday in northern Syria, about 35 miles from Aleppo, as part of Operation Euphrates Shield. Last week, strikes by Turkish warplanes killed 200 PKK/PYD 'terrorists' in northern Syria, according to the military. Turkey said that the strikes were in the support of the Free Syrian Army, and were necessary to prevent the Kurds taking control of the entire region in northern Syria along the Turkish border, with the intention of creating a Kurdish state called Rojava. When Operation Euphrates Shield began three months ago, Erdogan said that stopping a Kurdish state would be a principal objective, along with liberating Syrian cities that had been captured by ISIS. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah says that Turkey's involvement in Syria and Iraq is a thinly veiled attempt to take control of both Aleppo and Mosul. Syria's military calls Turkey's action a "serious escalation," and a gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty. Turkey's objectives are hardly secret, as Erdogan is pursuing the policies he's stated several times recently. What I'm waiting for is to see whether Turkey will try to break the siege of Aleppo being implemented by Syria's army in preparation for massive slaughter of Sunni civilians. That would bring Turkey into direct confrontation with Russia, just as the two countries have been cozying up to each other recently. Reuters and Anadolu (Ankara) and AP and Al Masdar News (Syria) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Iraq, Mosul, Syria, Aleppo, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Haider al-Abadi, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, Rojava, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 25-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq - Warren Dew - 10-24-2016 (10-24-2016, 09:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > [indent]<QUOTE>"You are not my interlocutor. You are not at my The emphasis on which leader is at whose "level" is weirdly reminiscent of records from Hittite leaders. I guess Erdogan thinks he is a "great king" and Al-Abadi merely a regular "king". 26-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror - John J. Xenakis - 10-25-2016 *** 26-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan **** Quetta attack At least 61 people, mostly fresh police recruits, were killed and 117 injured on Monday night in a terror attack on a Police Training cottage in Quetta, the capital of the province of Balochistan in Pakistan. The attack began with gunfire at 11 pm and continued for several hours, but most of the deaths were caused when one of the terrorists exploded his suicide vest. The attackers are thought to be Afghan Uzbeks. One of them was a 12-year-old boy. The attack is being blamed on the Al Alami offshoot of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a terror group that has vowed to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan, and has carried out numerous terrorist actions targeting Shias. However, no Pakistan terror group has claimed credit. However, LeJ is also thought to have links to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and so ISIS has been putting out press releases claiming credit for the attack. ISIS seems anxious to take credit for every terror attack, whether they have anything to do with it or not. Another possibility, though less likely, is that the terror attack is related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which over ten years will build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. On Saturday, two Pakistan Coast Guard officers were gunned down in a region close to the Gwadar sea port, and there's a possibility, considered less likely, that Monday's terror attack was connected to the CPEC project. Whoever the perpetrator, and whatever the motives, the attack is sending shock waves among the people of Pakistan, who are blaming the police and the government for the continuing stream of terror attacks. In past decades, Pakistan's government has supported Taliban terror groups who were attacking targets in India and Afghanistan, and now those terror groups are attacking targets in Pakistan itself. This new terror attack is certain to renew the "good terrorists versus bad terrorists" debate in Pakistan. Reuters and AFP and Reuters and Dunya News (Pakistan) Related Articles
**** **** Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) may be getting revenge for police attack on leader **** Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) is thought to be the perpetrator of Monday's attack on the police academy. Although the ethnicity of the victims has not been reported, the fact that it took place in Balochistan suggests that most of the cadets were Shias. Lashkar-e-Janghvi has repeatedly stated that its goal is the extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. An LeJ statement issued in 2011 says: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this > impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every > city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in > the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan > and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We > will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be > destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia > Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after > hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure -- > Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent] However, there's an additional possible motivation for LeJ. LeJ's leader Malik Ishaq was killed while in a police convoy in July of last year. The police said that the convoy was attacked by 12-15 gunmen, and that Ishaq and his two sons were killed in the subsequent shootout, but LeJ has claimed that the gunfight was staged. So it's possible that LeJ attacked the policy academy to get revenge for the killing of its Malik Ishaq. Dawn (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Quetta, Balochistan, Al Alami, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ, Malik Ishaq, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Gwadar sea port Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-Oct-16 World View -- Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing - John J. Xenakis - 10-26-2016 *** 27-Oct-16 World View -- Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria **** Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in the English Channel on Oct 21 (EPA) Spain on Wednesday asked for clarification on the intentions of a Russian fleet that was scheduled to dock for refueling in Spain's port of Ceuta between October 28 and November 2. Spain's foreign ministry issued this statement: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Given the information which appeared on the > possibility that these ships would participate in supporting > military action in the Syrian city of Aleppo, the ministry of > foreign affairs requested clarification from the embassy of the > Russian Federation in Madrid."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Russian fleets had been refueling in Ceuta for years, but hostility is growing in Europe over the genocidal acts of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, and most recently his plans to destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as many civilians as possible, possibly including as many as hundreds of thousands of women and children. The Russian fleet, which includes an aircraft carrier, had put on a great show last week by traveling through the English Channel, instead of taking the usual route north of Scotland. It's destination is to be a port in Syria, and it's suspected that Russia plans to launch additional bombers from the fleet to take part in the Aleppo slaughter. This prompted Nato to put pressure on Spain to demand a clarification from Russia. Russia responded to Spain's request for clarification by withdrawing its request to refuel in Ceuta. Gibraltar Chronicle and BBC Related Articles
**** **** The Gambia follows Burundi and S. Africa in leaving the International Criminal Court **** First, two weeks ago, Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague. Then, two days ago, South Africa also announced its withdrawal. On Wednesday, The Gambia became the third African country in quick succession to announce its withdrawal, calling it the "International Caucasian Court" because of its targeting of African countries. Burundi and The Gambia have many similarities. Both are being led by presidents (Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia) who have been in power for years, and who are using violence, torture and mass slaughter of the opposition to stay in power. That's why both countries are leaving the ICC. South Africa is in a different category. South Africa has been a democracy since 1994, when the first election was held following the end of apartheid. The African National Congress (ANC) political party has won every national election since then, but opposition political parties have increasingly been scoring victories in regional elections, to the point where ANC leaders fear they'll lose the next national election. The current ANC leader Jacob Zuma is being widely criticized as corrupt and unaccountable, and is being blamed for ANC's losses in a recent election. The ANC is badly split, and Jacob Zuma's unilateral decision to withdraw South Africa from the ICC raises suspicions that he's about to take some steps similar t those taken by Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia to stay in power. Daily Maverick (South Africa) and BBC and Mail and Guardian (South Africa) and Sowetan Live Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Spain, Ceuta port, Admiral Kuznetsov, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, The Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, International Criminal Court, ICC, South Africa, Jacob Zuma, African National Congress, ANC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-Oct-16 World View -- Thousands of refugees hide from French police - John J. Xenakis - 10-27-2016 *** 28-Oct-16 World View -- Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished **** Calais 'Jungle' camp goes up in flames on Tuesday (AFP) France has declared "Mission Accomplished!" after demolishing "The Jungle," the refugee camp in Calais, and bussing some 4,000 migrants to 280 reception centers across the country after being separated into different categories – single men, families, vulnerable people and unaccompanied minors. According to Fabienne Buccio, a local official, "There are no more migrants in the camp. Our mission has been fulfilled." However, not every tent or shanty was actually "demolished." A lot of them were burnt to the ground by the refugees themselves, apparently as a way of saying "goodbye." And a more serious reason why the mission hasn't really been accomplished is that there were 7,000 to 10,000 refugees in the camp. That means that several thousand refugees have fled from the camp, and are hiding out in order to stay near Calais. Many have simply gone to another refugee camp in nearby Dunkirk. On top of that, new refugees are arriving every day. The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel. Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking country. So having been desperate enough to have risked their lives for months to reach Calais, they are going to resist being bussed far away to another part of France. The Local (France) and Express (London) and France 24 **** **** Destruction of Calais camp called 'really dangerous' for children **** Concerns are being raised for the welfare of unaccompanied children. Although many children were bussed to reception centers, it's believed that there are hundreds of unaccompanied children who were forced to flee on Tuesday and Wednesday during the demolition and fire. Many children were unaccompanied because they had been sent from Syria or Afghanistan to try to reach family members in the UK, leading some activists to claim that Britain is responsible for these children. According to Robert Innes, the Anglican Bishop of Gibraltar in Europe: "They are gravely at risk. At a time when the UK is rightly spending millions on investigating historic child abuse, it is striking that there is a massive influx of traumatized children to Europe at risk of current abuse, and for whom we are not yet doing enough." Church Times and CNN Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, The Jungle, Fabienne Buccio, Dunkirk, Robert Innes Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-Oct-16 World View -- China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers - John J. Xenakis - 10-28-2016 *** 29-Oct-16 World View -- China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers **** Xi Jinping and wife, popular folk singer Peng Liyuan (Chinese Hour, 2012) China now has a need of a "strongman leader" or "Great Leader," the first since Mao Zedong, according to Chinese state media, so that China can again rise to greatness. Apparently that wish has been granted by last week's four-day sixth plenum of the Central Committee, which issued a statement granting China's president Xi Jinping the role of "core of the leadership," giving Xi unchallenged personal authority in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Ever since taking office in 2012, Xi has led a breathtaking anti-corruption drive that has punished more than one million officials for such crimes as bribery and abuse of power. Xi's opponents claim that the anti-corruption campaign was really a purge of political rivals, which is certainly true, given that Xi is a politician. According to professor David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology professor, Xi has been making powerful enemies: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The risk is that you will take power to yourself, > undermine the power bases of the people beneath you. ... > > Everyone in the Politburo has their networks, even in the > Standing Committee of the Politburo, so if you give all the power > to one guy you give him the power to push your people out and push > his people through. > > "Entrenched resistance was strong but if you really want to see > China reform, you want to take some power away (from those) who > protect their vested interests, like the state > enterprises."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The contrast is to Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao, who did not have the "core of the leadership" blessing, but instead was "first among equals," meaning that he had to rule by consensus. Xi has taken advantage of the anti-corruption drive to push his political enemies out and replace them with his acolytes, which means that he can rule in a dictatorial manner, without as much of a consensus. As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is headed for two wars -- an internal civil war, the first major civil war since the Communist revolution, and an external war, leading a world war with the United States, their first world war since World War II. These two wars are not inconsistent with each other, any more than the Communist Revolution and World War II were not inconsistent with each other. Xi can similarly expect to be fighting two wars -- an internal civil war and an external world war with the United States. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and SCMP (23-Oct) and BBC (24-Oct) Related Articles
**** **** China permits Philippines to fish in Scarborough Shoal **** A week ago, Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte visited China and said "I announce my separation from the United States. Both in military... not maybe social, but economics also, America has lost. I will be dependent on you." This was after calling President Obama the "son of a whore." Now China's president Xi Jinping has apparently waved his magic wand and granted a reward to Duterte -- China's warships have withdrawn from Scarborough Shoal, allowing Philippines fishermen to fish there for the first time since 2012. Scarborough Shoal is an island off the coast of Manila and far from China's shores. Philippine fishermen fished there for centuries, until blocked by the Chinese. In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South China Sea, and said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been > a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities > and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official > vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully > prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in > traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."<END QUOTE>[/indent] So China has rewarded the Philippines by granting to them rights that they were legally entitled to anyway. Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States, so it won't be very long before Duterte is forced to make some policy change that will infuriate the Chinese, and the warships could come back quickly. To paraphrase an old saying, Duterte should remember this: "The Xi giveth, and the Xi taketh away." Manila Bulletin and Reuters and The Diplomat Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Mao Zedong, Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan, David Zweig, Hu Jintao, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte, Scarborough, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul - John J. Xenakis - 10-29-2016 *** 30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Shia militias in Iraq may or may not be attacking Tal Afar near Mosul **** Kurdish Peshmerga forces fire a mortar towards ISIS positions near Mosul last week (Reuters) The Iran-backed Shia militias fighting in support of Iraq's army to liberate Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), claim that they're on a mission by themselves to recapture the nearby town of Tal Afar. Ahmad al-Asadi, the spokesman for the Hashd al-Shaabi militia, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), said: > [indent]<QUOTE>The front that has been tasked to the Hashd al-Shaabi > is one of the most significant and most dangerous fronts in this > operation. > > [The PMF] are tasked with one of the widest areas, ranging from > Qayyara in the west, Tal Afar in the north to the Mosul outskirts > in the east and some areas on the Syrian-Iraqi border to the > west."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Tal Afar is about 55 km (35 miles) northwest of Mosul, and al-Shaabi indicated that the goals was to cut off any option of retreat by ISIS into Syria, or to prevent any reinforcements from arriving from Syria. As we've discussed previously, there has been a debate over whether to leave open the roads west of Mosul, so that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee without a fight to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria. The claims by Shia militia (PMF) spokesman Ahmad al-Asadi seems to support closing the corridor to the West. On the other hand, the active involvement of Iran-backed Shia militias would seem to violate Iraqi government promises to Turkey that Shia forces would be limited in their activities, to prevent sectarian clashes. But all of al-Asadi's claims are being disputed by Turkey's military, according to a report in Daily Sabah: > [indent]<QUOTE>"As reports from various sources indicate that Shiite > militia groups have launched an operation Saturday to capture > predominantly Turkmen town of Tal Afar in northern Iraq from > Daesh, Turkish military sources said that these groups are not > near the town and reports are part of a psychological warfare > attempt."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The report suggests that the operation to recapture Mosul is not going as well as planned, and the claims that the PMF are about to capture Tal Afar are an attempt to fool both the international commit and ISIS. This report is consistent with suggestions in other reports that the Iraqi army's advance on Mosul is stalled, and that the Mosul offensive has virtually ground to a halt. AFP and Reuters and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Debka Related Articles
**** **** ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children as human shields in Mosul **** According to the United Nations Human Rights office, ISIS has abducted tens of thousands of men, women and children from areas around Mosul and are using them as "human shields." Describing it as "ISIS's depraved, cowardly strategy," they are being kept near military installations, to prevent the Iraqi army from advancing. The UN says that the ISIS stronghold of Hamam al-Alil used to have a population of 23,000, but now has a population of 60,000, in order to slow an Iraqi army attack. In addition, the UN is expressing "deep concern" at reports that some individuals in the areas south of Mosul have embarked on revenge killings and had vowed on television that there will be “eye for eye revenge” against those who sided with ISIS. United Nations and Hurriyet (Ankara) **** **** Conflicts among ethnic groups lead to chaos in Mosul operation **** Retired Army Gen. David H. Petraeus was once commander of the U.S.-led forces in Iraq, and he led the troop surge in 2007 that expelled Al-Qaeda in Iraq. So he completely understands the issues that the Iraqi army coalition is facing in its attempts to expel ISIS from Mosul. According to Petraeus, the Mosul campaign is unfolding "in quite a methodical way," and is a "textbook example" of such an operation. But he points out that the chaotic nature of the operation is caused by ethnic differences in both the Iraqi security forces and the millions of civilians being liberated: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Iraqi security forces [are] this mix of Iraqi > army, Iraqi police, Kurdish peshmerga, the Iraqi counter-terrorism > service, the Iraqi air force, popular mobilization units — some > Shia Arab from the south, some Sunni Arab from the tribes of > Nineveh province. And the challenge is going to be, first of all, > to keep all of them pulling in the same direction. ... > > As we used to say when I was privileged to be the commander there, > Nineveh province has the most diverse human terrain in all of Iraq > – Sunni Arab majority to be sure, but also Shia Arabs, numerous > Kurdish communities, and they are broken out into several > different political parties. > > There are Yazidis. There are Shabak. There are Christians. And > there are Turkmen Shias, as well as Turkmen Sunnis, and this > explains why President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey has been > so vocal about the fact that the Turkish forces needed to be on > the outskirts of Mosul should take some part in this > effort."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The situation in the Mosul operation is even worse, according to Israeli analyst Anshel Pfeffer: > [indent]<QUOTE>"On the ground, however, totally separate battles are > being fought out. The Iraqi Army, the Peshmerga, Shi’ite-Iraqi > militias and United States Special Forces teams are all rival > forces, albeit with a common enemy, for now. They are all fighting > ISIS while pursuing very different agenda. > > The Iraqi Army are not even allowed into the territory of the > Kurdish Regional Government without special authorization, and the > Peshmerga constantly complain of how almost all the new weapons > supplied by the Americans have gone to Baghdad’s forces, with the > Kurdish fighters receiving only scraps. ... > > “The Americans don’t learn,” says one Peshmerga officer. “The > Iraqi army will just run away, leaving their new American weapons > to ISIS. Just as they did two years ago.”"<END QUOTE>[/indent] Petraeus and Pfeffer agree that all the different armies and militias have a common objective to eject ISIS, and they'll succeed. But with growing Kurdish nationalism and growing Turkish nationalism, it won't be long before the different armies are fighting each other. LA Times and Haaretz Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tal Afar, Kurds, Pershmerga, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Ahmad al-Asadi, Hashd al-Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Turkey, David H. Petraeus, Anshel Pfeffer Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Oct-16 World View -- Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood - John J. Xenakis - 10-30-2016 *** 31-Oct-16 World View -- Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Australia proposes lifetime settlement ban on illegal immigrants **** Anti-government protestors in Sydney demanding that Manus detention center be closed (Getty) Australia's prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced plans to introduce legislation that will ban illegal immigrants who arrive by boat from ever being allowed into Australia again, even legally. The bill is intended to target human traffickers, since their potential customers will know that they will never have a chance of living in Australia. According to Turnbull, "These people smugglers are the worst criminals imaginable. They have a multibillion-dollar business. It is a battle of will. We have to be very determined to say no to their criminal plans." They will have a lifetime ban of coming to Australia, even as a tourist or as the spouse of an Australian citizen. The only exception will be children brought illegally by boat by their parents. The proposed law is retroactive to July 19, 2013, because that is when the former prime minister Kevin Rudd said: “As of today, asylum seekers who come here by boat without a visa will never be settled in Australia.” That means that the migrants currently imprisoned on Manus or Nauru will be forbidden from ever reaching Australia. In past years, thousands of refugees from Asia have traveled by boat to Australia, often after paying huge sums to human traffickers, hoping to resettle there. Australia has dealt with the situation, starting in 2001, by setting up two "detention centers" on Pacific islands, one on Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) Manus Island, and one on the island nation of Nauru, under agreements reached with both countries. Australia intercepts the boat people while at sea, and redirects them to the detention centers. These two filthy, rat-infested detention centers have been enormously controversial, with numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at the detention centers. The detention centers were shut down in 2007, but reinstated when the number of refugees and asylum seekers surged again into the thousands. The detention center policy has been extremely successful, in that the number of migrants reaching Australia has been sharply reduced. However, the policy has been widely condemned as cruel to people fleeing poverty and violence, and as a violation of international laws. The proposed law will receive substantial opposition during attempts to get it passed. Australian AP and Sydney Morning Herald Related Articles
**** **** Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood **** Whenever there's a sudden change in public mood in any country, it's of interest to Generational Dynamics, because it's often a sign that generational pressures have been building, and the change in public mood is caused by the latest rise of a new generation. Whatever the outcome of Friday's announcement by FBI Director James B. Comey potentially reopening the Clinton e-mail investigation, whether it helps or hurts Clinton or Trump, the unexpected media storm that followed the announcement is potentially significant. My personal belief is that Comey made his announcement to cover his ass, for whatever reason. I also believe that he made the announcement on Friday afternoon expecting that, like almost all Friday afternoon announcements, it would be forgotten almost immediately. But that's not what happened. Instead of being forgotten, Comey's announcement is continuing to gain coverage in the mainstream media, which is a major surprise. The standard is that massive criminal activity and corruption by politicians in Washington is simply ignored. As I've been writing for years, thousands of Gen-X bankers purposely created trillions of dollars worth of fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and then sold them to investors, knowing that they're fraudulent, creating a massive financial crisis that made millions of people bankrupt and/or homeless. And yet, not a single one of them has ever been prosecuted, but instead they've gotten off by contributing a fraction of their fraudulent gains as contributions to the Obama administration. And in Congress, as Peter Schweizer showed in 2011 appearing on 60 Minutes, Congressmen and Senators of both parties are using inside information on secret lawmaking negotiations to line their pockets with huge profits in the stock markets. Ordinary people would go to jail for insider trading for this sleazy behavior, but Congress has conveniently exempted itself, allowing it to commit crimes and enrich themselves on a daily basis and get away with it. The massive corruption and criminal activity in Washington is far greater than anything in my lifetime, much greater than ever occurred in Richard Nixon's administration. But today, the Washington standard is that criminal activities go unpunished. In the case of Hillary Clinton's e-mail activities, the mainstream media are so totally in the tank for Clinton, no longer even pretending to be unbiased journalists, that it's a shock to everyone that the stories around Comey's announcement are not only continuing, but growing. The Republicans are gloating of course, because this is so unexpected. The Democrats are apoplectic with rage because they're suffering from a case of cognitive dissonance and are going through the five stages of grief, as all their fundamental beliefs about their right to commit criminal activity with impunity are suddenly being challenged. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting here is not whether Clinton is guilty or innocent, but why there is a sudden change in public mood that might mean that her allegedly criminal activities might actually have consequences this time. It may actually be possible that after years of not caring about corruption and criminal activity in Washington, the public suddenly does care. If true, this change would be extremely significant. That someone in Washington, and Clinton in particular, could possibly face this kind of hostile media scrutiny may represent a major change in public mood that will be seen in other ways in the months to come, no matter who becomes president. Washington Post and Leon Festinger - Cognitive Dissonance Theory Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, Kevin Rudd, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru, James B. Comey, Hillary Clinton, Richard Nixon, Peter Schweizer Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Nov-16 World View -- France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian viol - John J. Xenakis - 10-31-2016 *** 1-Nov-16 World View -- France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows **** French peacekeeping force in Central African Republic (AFP) France on Monday formally ended its peacekeeping mission in Central African Republic. Using an old trick to "just declare victory and go home," France hailed it as a success even though it's been pretty much a total failure, as violence in the country's civil war has continued in recent months and even surged. The French mission, known as Sangaris, was launched in December 2013, and was supposed to last for six months, until a United Nations force could take over. The UN force is known as MINUSCA, which stands for Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic. The French force had 2,500 troops at its peak, and MINUSCA has about 12,000 troops. The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013 by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until January 2014. After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias. The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Seleka troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced. As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started. France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced the withdrawal of the French troops, saying that MINUSCA is now ready to take full responsibility for the peacekeeping operation. A prominent CAR official, Anicet Georges Dologuele, said that Le Drian was wrong: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Sangaris is pulling out far too early. Our security > forces are not ready to take over. The UN forces are more and > more overwhelmed."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Le Drian was unsympathetic: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It's always too early. These responsibilities are > above all your own."<END QUOTE>[/indent] There are still numerous armed groups fighting in CAR. The main ones are the Muslim former Seleka force, and the Christian "anti-Balaka" militias, a reference to the machetes used by the Selekas. There are also vigilante groups made up of nomadic, predominantly Muslim Fulani herders, as well as others specializing in highway robbery. Both the French forces and the MINUSCA forces have mainly been doing their "peacekeeping" in the region around the country's capital city Bangui. But CAR is a huge country, and much of the country has not been affected by "peacekeeping" at all. Thus there continues to be fighting among armed groups across the country. Since the armed militias are reported to fear the French forces more than the MINUSCA forces, there are concerns that the withdrawal of the French forces will trigger a major surge in new violence. France 24 and Deutsche Welle Related Articles
**** **** Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA **** During the past 18 months, there have been scores of allegations of child rape and other sexual abuse by MINUSCA's peacekeepers, though French troops have faced similar accusations. Roland Marchal, of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Paris, speaking on RFI, agreed that MINUSCA is not ready to take full responsibility for the peacekeeping operation, because they fail to act decisively, "they find an explanation not to move too quickly, not to move to the neighborhoods, and they procrastinate on making difficult decisions." He says that this sends a wrong message to the CAR population, who feel that MINUSCA is not doing its job. "The crisis is deep, it's structural, it's systemic, so you have to make radical decisions, to integrate more the countryside," and neither MINUSCA nor the government is willing to do that. Marchal added that the French troops were not able to fulfill their mandate either, although they were there for three years. "Their mandate was to disarm armed groups, and have the country move to national reconciliation. But it became clear that disarming the armed groups would actually be a very hard task, and costly, and second, to undertake drastic reforms in car you need a legitimate government." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly what is to be expected, as I've been writing since 2013 when the crisis began. CAR is in a generational crisis war, and a generational crisis war does not until there's an "explosive climax," something so horrific that both sides decide to stop fighting. This could be a real "explosion," such as the nuking of Japan that ended World War II, or it could be a massive act of genocide. Whatever it is, it must be so bad that it will be remembered for decades or even centuries, and will convince the survivors that it must "never again" be allowed to happen -- and it doesn't, as long as the survivors are alive. We're seeing the same kind of situation in Africa's other generational crisis war -- the Darfur war. It's a similar story. In 2007, the a UN Security Council resolution established the United Nations–African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), and provided peacekeeping troops to protect the Darfurians. Millions of people who were threatened with violence were moved from their villages to camps for refugees and IDPs (internally displaced persons) controlled by UNAMID. Today, there are still more than 3.1 million IDPs living in these refugee camps, and they are still suffering from hunger, thirst, and attacks from the militias that were attacking them ten years ago. Once again, the Darfur war will not end until there's a "explosive climax," a massive act of genocide that will convince all the survivors to stop fighting. Until then, the war goes on. RFI (Paris) and Al Jazeera Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic, Sangaris, Michel Djotodia, François Bozizé, Seleka, anti-Balaka, MINUSCA, Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Jean-Yves Le Drian, Anicet Georges Dologuele, Roland Marchal, Sudan, Darfur, UNAMID Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Nov-16 World View -- Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger - John J. Xenakis - 11-01-2016 *** 2-Nov-16 World View -- Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger in garbage truck This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Wife of North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un has disappeared **** Kim Jong-un and Ri Sol-ju in 2012 After the pretty Ri Sol-ju married North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un in 2012, they were often seen together in tours of factories, hospitals and parks. But now Ri has not been seen in public since March 28, and there's speculation that something has happened to her. There are several theories:
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**** **** Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger in garbage truck **** Protests have continued across Morocco for a fourth day on Tuesday over the death of Mouhcine Fikri, a fishmonger, crushed by a garbage truck. The story is this: It's apparently illegal to sell swordfish in Morocco at this time, but Fikri was selling swordfish anyway, after purchasing it at the port in the town of Al Hoceima in northern Morocco. A policeman confiscated his swordfish, reportedly worth about $11,000, and threw it into a garbage truck. Fikri jumped into the garbage truck to retrieve his fish, and he was crushed to death by the garbage truck. Some people who were present claim that the policeman told the garbage truck driver to crush him on purpose, though the police deny this. The picture of Fikri being crushed went viral on social media, and triggered anti-government protests across the country. On Tuesday, the government announced the arrests of 11 people, in an attempt to stop the protests. The "Arab Spring" has been roiling the Arab countries since 2011, when a new generation of Arabs came of age and began protesting across the entire Mideast. The Arab Spring uprisings were triggered on December 17, 2010, when a street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi set fire to himself in Sidi Bouzid in central Tunisia, in protest of the police confiscation of his vegetable cart. After days of clashes between protesters and the police, long-time dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country to exile in Saudi Arabia. By January 2011, the clashes had spread to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Lebanon, launching the Arab Spring. Morocco is a Muslim country, but it has largely escaped the chaos of the Arab Spring, mainly because it's historically been ethnically Berber rather than Arab, putting it on a slightly different generational timeline, despite some Arab-Berber intermarriage. Some analysts are comparing the death of Moroccan fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri to the death of Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, and suggesting that Morocco might be about to undergo the same kind of chaos as the countries of the Arab Spring. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one can safely predict that Morocco is headed for that chaos, but whether it's happening now or next year or the year after cannot be predicted. Al Hoceima is in the Rif region of northern Morocco, with a population of about 55,000. The region was the heart of of the revolt against the Spanish colonists during the 1920s, and was the scene of a popular insurrection in 1958. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Quartz and Telegramme.info Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Ri Sol-ju, Kim Yo-jong, Jang Song-thaek, Morocco, Mouhcine Fikri, Arab Spring, Tunisia, Sidi Bouzid, Mohamed Bouazizi, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Arabs, Berbers Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention - John J. Xenakis - 11-02-2016 *** 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China **** Newly elected lawmaker Baggio Leung is restrained by security while attempting to deliver his oath of office (AFP) Hong Kong's legislative election on September 4 handed Beijing a stinging defeat, as pro-democracy or "localist" candidates won 27 out of 70 seats for the Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). There was little doubt at the time that this would substantially exacerbate the level of tension between Hong Kong and Beijing, and now, we're seeing the first results. Hong Kong's LegCo has been in chaos for almost a month, thanks to two newly elected lawmakers, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang, from "Youngspiration" who have gone beyond "pro-democracy" to advocating full Hong Kong independence from China. When they took their oaths of office on October 12, they change the wording of the official oath of office to express support for Hong Kong's independence, and to describe China using a derogatory term. Their oaths were invalidated, and since then, pro-Beijing legislators have been staging walkouts and using other parliamentary tricks to keep them from being seated at all. Anticipating trouble on Wednesday, the LegCo president moved the council's meeting from the main chamber to a conference room. The two localists responded by storming into the conference room and demanded to take their oaths of office and be seated. They were forcibly ejected by security personnel. The two localists will appear in a Hong Kong court on Thursday, and there are a couple of outcomes that would be extremely controversial:
There is a growing reality with both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mainland China's government in Hong Kong has been using a carrot and stick approach with both entities for years, hoping that the people would eventually fall in love with Beijing and want to be government by Beijing. This hope is extremely delusional, of course, but being delusional is China's only path other than full-scale invasions of both entities to bring them under control. For both Hong Kong and Taiwan, the generations of survivors of World War II and Mao's Communist Revolution have taken steps to encourage unification with Beijing, or at least to avoid angering Beijing. But it's increasingly clear to everyone that younger generations are increasingly hostile to Beijing. This means that there is no advantage to Beijing to waiting. Taiwan and Hong Kong will increasingly want independence. Furthermore, as we've seen with Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution and Taiwan's Sunflower Movement, independence movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong feed off of each other, and support each other, and may even have synergy with independence movements in Tibet (by Buddhists) or Xinjiang (by Uighurs). Beijing has already said that that it will violently crush anyone who even talks about "independence." This is a continually worsening situation that Beijing is certain to find increasingly dangerous, enough to trigger a violent reaction at some point. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and BBC and Global Times (Beijing) Related Articles
**** **** Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea **** Under pressure from South Korea, Sudan has ended all military cooperation and diplomatic connections with North Korea. According to a statement posted by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: > [indent]<QUOTE>"[Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour of Sudan] > mentioned that Sudan has completely cut off its military > cooperation with North Korea, has no North Korean diplomatic > missions in the country as well as no diplomatic missions of its > own in the North, and has no plans for high-level exchanges. The > Minister, calling nuclear weapons an obstacle to peace and > security, stressed that Sudan is thoroughly implementing UN > Security Council sanctions resolutions on North > Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Sudan is the third African country this year to declare that it would comply with UN sanctions against North Korea. Uganda announced in July that it would several military and security ties with North Korea, and this was followed by a decision of Namibia to oust two North Korean firms that were constructing an arms and munition factory in nation’s capital, Windhoek. Other African countries are maintaining ties with North Korea. These include Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Equatorial Guinea -- also countries that are themselves targets of UN sanctions. N. Korea News and S. Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NK News (7/28) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Legislative Council of Hong Kong, LegCo, Yau Wai-ching, Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang, National People’s Congress Standing Committee, NPCSC, Umbrella Revolution, Taiwan, Sunflower Movement, Tibet, Xinjiang, North Korea, Sudan, Ibrahim Ghandour, Uganda, Namibia, South Korea, Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Nov-16 World View -- Britain's Brexit plans in disarray - John J. Xenakis - 11-03-2016 *** 4-Nov-16 World View -- Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval **** Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 in London (Getty) A shock court decision on Thursday threatens to significantly delay implementation of Brexit, the referendum mandate that Britain leave the European Union. Negotiations between the UK and the EU are scheduled to take two years, but that two-year period will not begin until Britain's prime minister Theresa May invokes "Article 50," which triggers the beginning of negotiations. May had previously announced that she planned to invoke Article 50 in March of next year. However, Britain's High Court on Thursday ruled that Theresa May cannot invoke Article 50 on her own, without a vote in Britain's House of Commons and House of Lords. The court ruling immediately raised hopes in some quarters that Brexit may therefore not take place at all, though analysts I heard seemed to doubt that the parliament would be willing to reverse a decision supported by popular vote in a referendum. Nonetheless, the path to Brexit implementation is now in disarray because Parliament will be debating the terms of the Brexit plan. There are many major issues to be resolved in the negotiations with the EU -- whether Britain will be part of the European Common Market, whether Britain will have to continue accepting migrants, whether Brits will need visas to visit EU countries, and vice versa, how the land border between Northern Ireland (which is part of Britain) and the Republic of Ireland (which is an independent nation in the EU) will be managed, and so forth. All of these issues require some sort of plan in advance of triggering Article 50, and May had hoped to keep that plan a secret until then. But a lot of people suspect that no such plan exists -- that May doesn't have a clue what positions to take on issues like the ones listed above. So with the Parliament debating these issues, May will be forced to take positions on the issues prior to March. EU leaders will watch these proceedings with a combination of amusement and horror. Britain is deeply divided by Brexit, and that extends to the Parliament. Analysts are predicting that anti-Brexit MPs will use the debating opportunities to delay the invocation of Article 50 by up to a year. May is appealing the decision to Britain's Supreme Court, which will hear the case in December and issue a ruling in the middle of January 2017. So expect the Brexit controversy to become extremely heated during the holiday season. Telegraph (London) and BBC Related Articles
**** **** Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse **** A proposed 5 billion euro bailout of Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) by a consortium of other banks has been withdrawn, leading to the possibility that MPS will collapse by the end of the year. Italy's largest bank is Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank. Its share of bad loans comes to $55.2 billion of bad loans on its books. These bad loans are so bad that it's estimated that selling these bad loans to a third party would only get 20% of face value, which means that MPS would require a bailout. Investors are concerned that political pressure will force Italy's government to use taxpayer money to bail out MPS. When Greece used taxpayer money to bail out its banks, the result was that the financial crisis spread from the banks to the entire country, resulting in Greece's financial crisis, which is still unresolved. Italy's financial problems would be larger than Greece's. Italy also has a political issue: Prime minister Matteo Renzi has scheduled a referendum on a constitutional change for December 4, and he has promised to quit if he loses the vote. According to a survey of 1,000 investors, Italy is now thought to be the country most likely to leave the eurozone this year, pushing Greece into second place. Reuters and Macedonia Online and The Street Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Article 50, Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS, Matteo Renzi, Greece Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |