Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-19-2019 (09-12-2019, 02:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Sep-2019 World View: The CCP Master Race Every Great Power tries to establish its right to rule in some cultural quality or in the ethnic origin of the people... if it comes to skin color, peoples of East Asian origin can have skin color indistinguishable from that of many Europeans. It may be ironic, but white racists burn themselves on their own petards when they argue that racial superiority is based on paleness of skin (North Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese are easy to distinguish from peoples of north-European origin in many ways, but not in skin color) and difference from African populations. Europeans are basically East Africans bleached out and are genetically far closer to West Africans (the most derided of people in white racist literature except perhaps for Jews) than are East Asians, American First Peoples, and Australian Aborigines. Chinese, Korean, and Japanese culture are easy to appreciate but difficult to crack. Linguistic difficulty? Fundamental differences of cultural foundation? You describe racism in China... and you make it sound much like Japanese racism during World War II. That is not to say that racism does not exist in China, but that it is fairly similar. A reality is that peoples of North China, Korea, and Japan score higher in IQ than white populations other than Jews... so I have had some encounters with white racists and asked them whether they are prepared to defer to their superiors... Quote:So the reason that the CCP believe they can arrest and enslave a Without question that is a vile political order, and how long it can endure without collapsing of its own contradictions that it fails to resolve may decide much of this Crisis. Note well that the crackdown in Tienanmen Square was fully thirty years ago, when the freedom-seeking people were contemporaries of America's Generation X. People contemporary to the revolutionaries of 1989 are now roughly the age of the political elite, and they are scarred. Obviously Chinese leaders have their own legacy of humiliation from the Opium Wars to the horrific Sino-Japanese struggles from 1931 to 1945 in which foreign powers attempted, in retrospect unsuccessfully, in partitioning China into spheres of influence (and exploitation) if not outright colonization. The colonial adventurers and overseas exploiters may be off the scene, but the legacy of national pain remains. Christianity was often seen as a fifth-column movement in ways in which it was not seen in Korea (it was part of modernity) or even Japan. Buddhism is very much a part of Chinese heritage, but it is contrary to a warrior ethos. China has a long legacy of poor protection of intellectual property. Slavish imitation of cultural norms is part of the Chinese artistic tradition, explaining why much Chinese art is often inscribed "painted in the style of (older master)". It is as if I were to paint in much the same manner as Tomas Kincade (ha! ha!) or Norman Rockwell (probably gaining in respect now as his work becomes more a reflection of what America has lost) not with my name but instead with "painted in imitation of Norman Rockwell/Thomas Kincade". (I would love to have a blend of Picasso and Matisse, but it would still be "P. Brower" because it could not avoid having my personality and time attached). Quote:Just as a murderer might justify his actions by blaming the way his But Mao Zedong was Chinese (which excuses much to many Chinese), and he did drive out the last vestiges of power of colonial adventurers and their exploitation and degradation of Chinese life. Quote:If you'd like to understand what's really going on with China, rather There are totalitarians in high places in American life, now largely on the Right (Marxism-Leninism is dead, and most left-wing radicals are post-Marxist), and they would love to imitate the dictatorial rule of China, establishing it in America in a controlled and inequitable order that well serves people who might have a different rationale of their culture. 22-Sep-19 World View -- Kids protest worldwide in new Children's Crusade against clim - John J. Xenakis - 09-21-2019 *** 22-Sep-19 World View -- Kids protest worldwide in new Children's Crusade against climate change This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kids protest worldwide in new Children's Crusade against climate change **** Protesters on Friday in Brussels (top) and Hamburg (bottom) (CNN) There's a new Children's Crusade going on, as kids in cities around the world took part in a general strike from school on Friday, and held protests with hundreds of thousands of kids in cities around the world. On Saturday, hundreds of kids attended a Youth Climate Summit, sponsored by the United Nations. The kids demanded an end to climate change, and many said they've decided not to have children, rather than bring children into a world destroyed by climate change. They said they wanted an end to use of fossil fuels, and parroted the claim that the world come to an end if carbon emissions didn't stop by 2030. As usual, it's really only about money. Activists demanded money for a fund to help poorer nations adapt to a warming world. The whole purpose of the Paris Climate Treaty was to extract money from the West, particularly the United States, to give to the pet projects of the activists. As far as the US is concerned, Donald Trump has already withdrawn the country from the Paris treaty, so the activists have no hope of getting American money for their pet projects. One of the facts that the kids won't be talking about at the climate change protests is that, of all the major countries that signed the Paris treaty, there's only one that's actually reducing carbon emissions -- the United States. America's power plants will emit 2.3% less carbon dioxide this year compared to 2018. That's because of fracking and abundant supplies of natural gas. One other thing that won't be mentioned is that China already has largest number of coal-fired power plants in the world, and that China has just announced plans for a massive number of new coal-fired power plants. You can be sure the leftist climate activists will never mention this, or anything else that criticizes their beloved Communist country. **** **** Earth Day, 1970 -- déjà vu all over again **** A recent article quoted some of the predictions that climate scientists were making in 1970, in celebration of "Earth Day." Here are some examples:
Today we can see how ridiculous these 1970 predictions by population scientists turned out to be. Below we'll show how today's predictions by climate scientists are equally ridiculous, but for now I want to make the point that these 1970 scientists were incredibly stupid. It's a fair question: If they're scientists, then how come they were so disastrously wrong? And why would anyone think that today's scientists would be any less disastrously wrong? To show how stupid these scientists were, look particularly at the last of the predictions referenced above. Let's assume that their prediction that came true that there wouldn't be enough food to feed the world. Then would widespread famine have occurred -- 1975 in India, all of Asia by 1990, South and Central America by 2000, the rest of the world after that? Is that guy a total idiot? There's no way the people of India would just sit there and starve to death. And there's no way that the rest of the world would let them. The same with the other countries. So people like Paul Ehrlich. George Wald and Peter Gunter are really stupid. It's hard to believe anyone, let alone a scientist, could be stupid enough to believe that the people in India, Asia, Africa, and so forth, would just sit there are starve to death. So what would happen? There would be riots, demonstrations, and international conferences, but if things got really bad, there would be war. But nobody would just sit there and die of starvation, and these "scientists" are total idiots to believe so. **** **** The stupidity of today's climate scientists **** I will show that today's climate scientists are just as stupid as the one that predicted disaster after 1970 Earth Day. But first, let's make note that climate scientists have been wrong, time after time. Al Gore quoted climate scientists as saying that the Arctic ice cap would disappear completely by 2013, and so those climate scientists were wrong. And then there's the biggest prediction of them all: That the world will end unless carbon emissions end by 2030. What does that even mean? If the temperature of the earth increases by 1 degree or so, then does everyone burn to death? That's ridiculous. Maybe some polar ice caps will melt and some islands and beach fronts will disappear, but that won't be the end of the earth. So what will really happen? Once again, the climate scientists are too stupid to understand that even if their predictions about global warming are true, it will mean war. In fact, there will be one or two world wars in this century with or without climate change. In the last century, there were two world wars, and massive additional wars in Asia and Africa. In every century for millennia, there were massive wars on every continent and every region. So it's 100% certain to happen in this century. You can already see the signs of it. There are millions of refugees in Asia, Syria, Africa and Latin America traveling in large groups to other countries, including America, Europe and Indonesia. There are sky-high military tensions in China and the Mideast. All that's needed is for some small event to flare up into a regional war, and then a larger war. And what of the Paris treaty and climate change? That's just a silly fantasy anyway. The only country reducing carbon emissions is the United States, and all the other major countries are increasing their carbon emissions. In particular, China is aggressively planning a massive number of new coal-fired power plans. China needs these as it prepares to launch a world war, and will not stop building them under any circumstances. Getting back to those kids who are protesting climate change in cities around the world, some of them have said that they won't have kids, because how can you bring kids into a world to be destroyed by climate change? Well, with world war coming, now they have another reason not to have kids. John Xenakis is author ofP "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, China, Earth Day 1970, George Wald, Paul Ehrlich, Peter Gunter, Al Gore Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-22-2019 Global warming is a reality. The bulk of record-warm months are in recent years. The last below-average months for temperature occurred after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo about a quarter-century ago. The greenhouse effect is real, and its effects are not on the whole to the good. Warming climates imply that climate zones will move. In one expression, Michigan will become like Oklahoma. Hot tropical locations will become so hot and humid that people will be unable to sweat away waste heat. If the wet-bulb temperature is high-enough (body temperature), then atmospheric moisture will literally condense on people. OK, so we turn up the air-conditioner? The Second Law of Thermodynamics goes into effect: it takes energy to run even a heat pump, and that energy leaves the machinery as... heat. More use of air conditioners means a hotter world even if people successfully cool themselves. The most immediate effect will be upon agriculture. Don't fool yourself; we have been taking our food supplies for granted. Note well: Battle Creek, Michigan is a center for the production of grain-based breakfast cereals because it is on the borderline between the corn and wheat belts. Although winter may seem a waste in much of America, winter blizzards supply the snow that protects soil moisture and that melts just in time for the germination of grain plants in Dfa climates -- and protects young crops known as winter wheat in the Dakotas and the Prairie Provinces. Turn those blizzards into rainstorms, and (1) erosion accelerates, (2) nutrients leach from the soil, and (3) soil moisture more likely evaporates. There is no techno-fix for hunger. The worst effects will be the inundation of lowlands that now produce large parts of the world food supply or at least the local food supply. Where do all the peasants of China and Bangladesh go? Inundation of prime farmland (and most of it is in vulnerable lowlands) imply that people must leave, but where do they go? If anything could prompt horrific wars -- then there you have it! The consequences of such an ecological disaster as global warming would be mass death on scales that would trivialize World War II and the Black Death. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-22-2019 Here is one climate projection for the United States: in contrast to something more familiar (current reality): Such is the result of playing "greenhouse-gas roulette" Desert zones expand, appearing in places in which they are not in existence -- yet. Hot deserts expand in Utah, New Mexico, and western Texas (the Permian Basin). Semi-arid steppe The tropical zone reaches roughly Tampa-St. Pete and Orlando. Real winters disappear in Nebraska, Iowa, and the southern Great Lakes... but drought more than offsets a longer growing season in central Nebraska. I concede that southwestern Alaska might be a good grain-growing area -- but soils are now poor and will not improve rapidly. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-22-2019 ** 22-Sep-2019 World View: What happens when idiots run Mideast policy In 2006, the Congressional Quarterly published the results of an informal survey of Mideast experts, to see what they knew. It turns out that so-called "experts" of many years couldn't answer the simplest question. The one I remember the best was that the long-time experts couldn't answer whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization, but most of them thought that al-Qaeda was a Shia organization. This was the case with both Republicans and Democrats. So that's when I first learned that most "experts" in Washington and in the media are idiots. The London Times did a similar survey, showing the British media and politicians were also idiots. ** Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e070114b.htm#e070114b In 2006, the idiots in the mainstream media thought that the Iraq war was like Vietnam War. NBC News were the biggest idiots of all, putting on a big dog and pony show, declaring that it was official NBC News policy that the Iraq war was a civil war, like the Vietnam War, so the "surge" would fail. These people were too stupid to understand that the Iraq war being fought by Iraqis versus foreign fighters from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, so it wasn't a civil war. ** News as theatre: NBC announces it will call Iraq war a 'civil war' ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e061129.htm#e061129 ** Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.iraq070401.htm The Democrats, especially Barack Obama, were extremely humiliated when the "surge" worked. Then they turned to the Afghanistan war, and decided that a "surge" would work there as well. They were too stupid to understand that while al-Qaeda in Iraq were external, invading jihadists, the Taliban in Afghanistan were internal jihadists, so the "surge" had no chance of working in Afghanistan. In other words, while the idiots in 2006 believed stupidly that the Iraq war was like the Vietnam war, the idiots in 2009 believed stupidly that the Afghan war was like the Iraq war. This gives new meaning to the old saying, "The politicians are always fighting the last war." ** Barack Obama endorses growing American troop force in Afghanistan ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e080721.htm#e080721 ** India is on high alert as synchronized bombs strike two cities ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e080730.htm#e080730 ** American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e090926.htm#e090926 It's clear that all the people in the media and the Obama administration in 2009 were idiots, and had no clue what was going on in Afghanistan. I doubt that many of them could even find Afghanistan on a map. You don't actually have to know anything to become an "expert." You just have to be pretty. The Obama administration was just as clueless at the end as it was in the beginning. As I've written many times, it was clear that Donald Trump was just as clueless as Obama, and therefore his administration's decisions would be made by idiots as well. But much to my surprise, Steve Bannon became his principal advisor, and Bannon does know what's going on in the world. With Bannon gone, John Bolton was the only person left in Washington who knew what was going on. ** 11-Sep-19 World View -- Donald Trump fires John Bolton over Afghanistan 'Peace Negotiations' ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190911.htm#e190911 Now with Bolton gone, it's increasingly clear that the Trump administration's foreign policy is being run by idiots, the same kinds of idiots as in the Obama administration. In the last few weeks, Trump's policies have flip-flopped inexplicably in Afghanistan and Iran. It looks to me that Trump is applying "The Art of the Deal," but without the historical understanding that he applied in other areas, like North Korea and China. There is no sensible strategy that I can discern. I attribute this to the firing of Bolton. Maybe I'm judging too quickly. So, I'll be watching, but today it looks like the idiots are in full charge again in Washington. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-23-2019 ** 23-Sep-2019 World View: Trump's strategy with China For months, I've heard so-called "experts" on television criticize Donald Trump's use of trade sanctions with China. It's now been generally agreed worldwide that a way must be found to curtail China's hostile and illegal trade practices (cyber intrusion into business networks, forced technology transfers in exchange for market access, intellectual property theft). So those who want to criticize Trump without criticizing the objectives have to criticize the way Trump did it. What I've been hearing for months was some variation of the following strategy: Quote: "It's necessary to curtail China's forced technology I've heard different versions of this for months, and it's a widely accepted view among certain groups of analysts. The problem is that the above strategy is so clearly disastrous that we can only assume that any journalist, analyst or politician expressing this view is truly ignorant, is truly an idiot, and probably can't find China on a map. The first and most obvious problem is that forming such a coalition is impossible. Several European countries would balk, and at most one or two countries would join the coalition before it fell apart completely, making Trump look like a loser. Indeed the proposed strategy would violate many concepts in "The Art of the Deal," and so it's almost impossible that Trump would adopt it. But let's suppose Trump DID adopt this policy anyway. This would be a complete disaster. China's media would portray it as a revival of the "century of humiliation" and the imposition of new "unfair treaties." They would particularly point to the Versailles Betrayal, when all the Western countries, including Japan, ganged up on China and forced them to accept the terms of the Versailles Treaty after World War I. This triggered extreme nationalism and the May Fourth movement, and led to adoption of Soviet Communist "theory." So it's absolutely certain that this strategy, which I've heard "experts" propose repeatedly for the last few months, would fail disastrously. Instead, Trump followed a strategy apparently recommended by John Bolton: He began by imposing tariffs that affected all of America's allies, including the EU, Mexico and Canada, with a 25% tariff on imports of steel and 10% on aluminum from these countries. After that, he could pose unilateral tariffs on imports from China, without being open to the accusation that everyone in the world was ganging up on China. Ironically, the perception was (and is) that everyone in the world is ganging up on Donald Trump, but that seems to be Trump's strategy. "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44426442" Once again, this is what I mean. I see this every day -- different "experts," usually young and pretty, who really know absolutely nothing about anything, who believe that they know everything, who believe that history always begins this morning, making really incredibly stupid statements. If Trump had followed the pretty boy's strategy, it would have been a disaster, but by following Bolton's strategy, there are actual negotiations going on. (Although, as I always point out, the world is headed for World War III with 100% certainty, no matter what Trump does.) Yesterday, National Interest online posted an article by Ali Wyne and James Dobbins called "How Not to Confront China." The authors are described thus: "Ali Wyne is a policy analyst and James Dobbins is a senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation." https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-not-confront-china-82356 Here are their pictures:
So Wyne is pretty enough, and Dobbins is definitely not, and is old enough and from the venerable Rand Corporation, so he should know better, but this shows that even old people in the Rand Corporation have no clue what's going on in the world. So let's take a look at some of the claims in the article. Quote: "First, the administration is undercutting America’s I read this and I have to laugh at how naïve it is, for the reasons already explained. By first penalizing exports from other countries, Trump has avoided the accusation that the West was ganging up on China, as in the "unfair treaties" and the Versailles Betrayal. If Trump had gotten together with Canada, the EU, Japan, Mexico and South Korea to demand that China change its trade practices, the result would have been explosive. The real question is: Why don't these so-called "experts" -- Ali Wyne and James Dobbins -- already know that? It's bad enough not knowing what you're talking about, but you have to be really stupid to not know that you don't know what you're talking about. Quote: "Second, while the present configuration of This is just babble. At least they recognize that Huawei and ZTE present security risks. But blocking them from taking control of much of the global internet is not the same as "decoupling the two countries' economies." Quote: "Third, in withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive I've been hearing about these attempts to circumvent the dollar for decades, and so far all attempts have failed. This is an empty threat that has nothing to do with current round of sanctions. Furthermore, most countries have quietly expressed agreement with Trump's sanctions on China, since everyone agrees that China's illegal trade practices have to be confronted. They may dislike Trump, but they know that he's the only one who can do it. Quote: "Fourth, while sharply criticizing core elements of More silly babble. Nobody believes the narrative that Beijing is confident and ascendant, while Washington is nervous and declining. Only a nevertrumper would say something so stupid. Quote: "Fifth, and perhaps most fundamentally, while it has This certainly is the "most fundamental" of Wyne's and Dobbins' mistakes. Like most people in the media, they're totally baffled by Trump's policies, and they blame it on Trump rather than their own stupidity. Trump's objective -- and it's been succeeding as far as I can tell -- is to disrupt critical places in China's economy in order to stop or slow its headlong rush to launch a war with Japan, Taiwan and the United States. China was on a path where it could pour as much money as possible into its war machine, supplemented by all the intellectual property and technology that it could steal from the west, all the intelligence it could steal through cyber attacks on the West's business and military sites, and with complete control of a significant part of the global internet through Huawei. All of those Chinese plans are now in shambles, but of course they are simply slowed down. China will start again on all those plans, until finally some event triggers a new war. That's why I say that World War III is coming with 100% certainty, no matter what Trump does. 25-Sep-19 World View -- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiate - John J. Xenakis - 09-24-2019 *** 25-Sep-19 World View -- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson **** Placards demanding Brexit on October 31, as Boris Johnson has promised (Reuters) It's hard to know whether it's more accurate to describe the Brexit drama in Britain as a situation comedy or as a Greek tragedy. Actually it's both, since a well-written tragedy always contains some humor in the form of "comic relief," until finally the tragedy reaches its catastrophic conclusion. What happened on Tuesday is pure comedy. The UK Supreme Court, which only came into existence in 2009, ruled that prime minister Boris Johnson's attempt to shut down Parliament for five weeks was illegal. Johnson has promised that the UK will exit the EU on October 31, and he used a parliamentary trick to suspend or "prorogate" the Parliament for five weeks, in order to give himself some breathing room to negotiate, or pretend to negotiate, a final "deal" with the EU on the terms of the Brexit, in order to avoid the hated "no deal Brexit." So the Parliament will start meeting again on Wednesday, and it should provide a lot of laughs. The real zinger in the UK Supreme Court ruling is that the court said that when Boris Johnson went to the Queen earlier this month to ask her to prorogate the Parliament, he "misled" her about the reasons. So this means that Johnson lied to the Queen about the reasons, and that the Queen was too dumb and credulous to know the real reasons, which she and her staff could have quickly learned by reading the newspaper or turning on the TV. So the ten-year-old UK Supreme Court has firmly established itself by ruling that Johnson is a criminal and the Queen is an idiot. Somebody's going to pay for that opinion in the months to come. **** **** The intractable Ireland land border **** The Brexit referendum was passed in June 2016, and it was clear almost immediately that it was a disaster. The major intractable problem has been that, after the UK leaves the EU, Northern Ireland will be in the UK, and Southern Ireland (the Republic of Ireland) will be in the EU. So there will have to be solid border crossings, and tariffs placed on goods crossing the border. There have been centuries of violent history between Ireland's indigenous ethnic Gaelic people versus the descendants of the Scottish and English invaders. This violence continued in modern times until the "Good Friday Agreement" was signed in 1998. Many people say that they fear that new border crossings would result in renewed violence. The solution that the EU wants is called the "Irish Backstop." In this case, the border would remain completely open, and then either Northern Ireland would become part of the EU and separate from the UK, or else Britain would have to follow all EU regulations and court decisions, but have no say in making them. This solution is so ridiculous that it serves as monument to the stupidity of this whole process. The "Brexiteers," led by Boris Johnson, claim they don't want a "no deal Brexit," so they say they're going to tweak the Backstop as part of a deal, something that the EU refuses to allow. The "Remainers" don't want to admit they're remainers, since then they would be ignoring "the will of the people," as expressed in the the 2016 referendum, so they advocate the "deal" with the Irish Backstop, hoping that means that Brexit will be abandoned entirely. **** **** The default solution: No-deal Brexit **** Tuesday's court decision changes nothing, except the rhetoric. It's still the case that unless a new arrangement is negotiated, then the UK Brexit will take place with no deal on October 31. I've been saying for a long time that I expect the final result to be a no-deal Brexit, simply because the Generation-X is now in charge in Britain and the EU. Government leaders in the 1990s were in Silent generation that grew up during the horrors of World War II, including the Nazi bombing of London, and had the skills to negotiate and compromise. Today, the Gen-Xers are in charge, and Gen-Xers have no skills to negotiate and compromise. So there are different camps in the government, each dominated by a different group of Gen-Xers, and they're all in hardened positions opposed to each other. My expectation for a long time is that a no-deal Brexit would occur because it's the default, and it's the only option that doesn't require anyone to negotiate and compromise with anyone else. So far, that expectation has proven to be correct. In the last year, the Parliament has repeatedly voted NO every chance it could get -- no on remaining, no on a no-deal Brexit, and noes on various "deal" Brexits. There's always a major to reject any solution, but never a majority to say YES to any proposal. The Parliament did vote in favor of a law forbidding Boris Johnson from taking the UK out of the EU in a no-deal Brexit, but I don't understand how that would work. A no-deal Brexit is the default, so if Johnson does nothing, then a no-deal Brexit would occur automatically on October 31. Possible scenarios in the next few weeks include leaving the EU with a no-deal Brexit on October 31, asking the EU to postpone the October 31 date, or having a new British election. However, none of these scenarios would resolve any of the differences. There are also calls for a new referendum, but there's wide disagreement on what options should be on it, and so the disagreements on the text of the referendum could be as vitriolic as the disagreements about Brexit itself. The Brexit issue has badly split the British people, as well as the two major British political parties, the Conservative Tories and Labor, although the smaller Liberal Democrat party says that it's united in wanting to Remain. It's possible that by the time this is over, there will be a major realignment of British politics. There's also talk of drawing up a constitution for the British government, since it currently plenty of traditions, but they are not written down. And even though Britain voted in 2016 to leave the EU, today nobody can say for sure whether Britain will actually leave the EU, and how long it will be before a decision is reached. The comedy continues, and the tragic dénouement awaits. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK, Boris Johnson, Irish backstop Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 09-24-2019 .....<snip> Yesterday, National Interest online posted an article by Ali Wyne and James Dobbins called "How Not to Confront China." The authors are described thus: "Ali Wyne is a policy analyst and James Dobbins is a senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation." .... <snip> Actually the RAND Corporation is a Neocon oriented Stink Tank. It's little wonder the have their collective heads up their asses. Just an FYI, y'all. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 09-24-2019 "Government leaders in the 1990s were in Silent generation that grew up during the horrors of World War II, including the Nazi bombing of London, and had the skills to negotiate and compromise. Today, the Gen-Xers are in charge, and Gen-Xers have no skills to negotiate and compromise. So there are different camps in the government, each dominated by a different group of Gen-Xers, and they're all in hardened positions opposed to each other." Uh, no. The actual involvement of GenX is to burn down the rotten stinking edifice known as the "establishment". You know the same one from the 1970's. It's the same damn thing and it's mutated into a Globalist,Neoliberal austerity imposing piece of shit. Go BoJo, let's all say it, BURN, BABY BURN! It was the Boomers after all who taught the kiddies well. It's the same thing, the establishment sold out the lower classes to a bunch of international capitalists/transnational companies. Since the establishment didn't end austerity in the UK, the folks voted leave as a way of burning it all down. In the US, same for Trump. He's a symptom of the rage that's expressing itself now as polarization. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2019 ** 25-Sep-2019 Burning down the world (09-24-2019, 11:06 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Actually the RAND Corporation is a Neocon oriented Stink Tank. That's why Dobbins should have known better. (09-24-2019, 11:13 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Uh, no. The actual involvement of GenX is to burn down the rotten That's what I said. And by the time WW III ends, Gen-Xers can boast and brag about how you burned down the entire world. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2019 ** 25-Sep-2019 World View: Mao Zedong (09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Every Great Power tries to establish its right to rule in some It's typical of the left that when you can't deal with facts you immediately go to Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables -- racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it." When I was writing the book, someone suggested that I could be criticized for being racist about criticizing the Chinese. That's why I went to a great deal of trouble to point out that the same Chinese people lived in Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong. By 2010, Taiwan and Hong Kong had 10 times the income as China. It's not the Chinese people, but the fanatical, catastrophic CCP that infinitely damaged the wonderful Chinese people living in China. The same is true of the Japanese and South Koreans, as well as Taiwanese and colonial Hong Kongers. They've all done very well since WW II, while the mainland Chinese have faced abuse, jailings, arbitratry arrests, beatings, rapes, enslavements, a one-child policy, and poverty from the CCP. (09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Chinese, Korean, and Japanese culture are easy to appreciate but The fact that the CCP is planning a war of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan is difficult to blame on racism, especially since the Taiwanese are Chinese too. (09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > But Mao Zedong was Chinese (which excuses much to many Chinese), No he didn't do anything of the sort. It amazes me what the loony left would say to defend this monster Mao. I remember in the 1960s students were walking around with copies of Mao's "little red book" in their back pockets, and praising Mao as he was implementing the worst and most disastrous agicultural policy in the history of any country at any time in the world. In my book, I quoted Soviet communist theory dating back to the 1920s, as well as Mao's own writings. The Great Leap Forward catastrophe was caused by Mao's fanatical obsession to prove that Marxism, Socialism and Communism were economically superior to Capitalism. Instead, what he did was so disastrous, he ended up completely humiliating himself and completely proving that Marxism, Socialism and Communism are all disastrously inferior to capitalism. However, it was only after Mao died in 1976 that Deng Xiaoping finally was able to initiate the "Reform and Opening Up," replacing Marxism, Socialism and Communism with "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics," which turns out to be the same as Hitler's National Socialism. Oh wait! Now I get your point! You're right! Mao did want to replace the last vestiges of Western colonialism -- democracy, good governance, concern for human rights, independent judiciary, free elections, free markets, and so forth --- He replaced those last vestiges of Western colonialism in China with dictatorship, beatings, torture, rape, mass slaughter, mass jailings, slave labor, starvation, and so forth. So you're right! You've made an amazing point! Mao replaced the vestiges of colonialism -- democracy, human rights, free markets -- with the tenets of Socialism -- beatings, torture, rape, starvation. So Mao DID get rid of the last vestiges of colonialism in China, as you say. That was VERY insightful for someone on the loony left to say. But aren't you afraid that by saying something like that the other people on the loony left are going to accuse you of becoming a traitor and a scumbag collaborator, and of turning into a fascist, a racist, a misogynist and a white supremacist? You'd better be careful. The loony left is watching you, and they're coming to get you. (09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > There are totalitarians in high places in American life, now This is laughable, when people on the loony left have such psychotic hatred of 60 million Trump supporters, who can't tell the difference between a tweet and an action, and who have adopted Antifa as this generation's Ku Klux Klan, attacking 60 million Trump supporters. (09-22-2019, 11:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The consequences of such an ecological disaster as global warming This is completely hallucinatory. There's no limit to the total craziness of loony left climate activists. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2019 ** 23-Sep-2019 World View: Greta Thunberg This actually makes me want to vomit: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYqtXR8iPlE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYqtXR8iPlE Hey guys! Line up! She might be looking for a husband! She would make a wonderful wife! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - tg63 - 09-25-2019 John, just a bit of feedback - as a longtime lurker I have enjoyed reading your threads for years; however your increasingly patronizing tone and ability to turn every comment that isn't supportive into a personal attack have made you completely unreadable, to me at least. If you want to have any kind of a diverse reader base you might want to consider changing that. Or don't ... whatever. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2019 ** 25-Sep-2019 Response to feedback (09-25-2019, 11:12 AM)tg63 Wrote: > John, just a bit of feedback - as a longtime lurker I have enjoyed One thing that comes with age is that I care less and less what people think of me. So after more than two years of seeing the loony left make one sleazy accusation after another against Trump, not to mention the sleaziest accusations against Kavanaugh -- and each sleazy accusation was described as "explosive" and "the end of Trump's presidency" -- and each sleazy accusation was obviously just a lie -- and each sleazy accusation just disappeared the next day and was replaced with another sleazy accusation -- after over two years of that, I'm just sick of it. One of worst sleazes was Adam Schiff, who kept claiming to have ironclad proof, but never did -- one sleazy lie after another, from a sleazy piece of garbage Adam Schiff. After the Mueller report completely humiliated and disgraced the loony left, a lot of people, including myself, hoped finally it would be over. But now it's still going on with these new sleazy accusations about the phone call, when anyone who reads what's going on can see that it was Biden and his son taking hundreds of millions of dollars in an extortion scheme backed by Obama, and Trump asked Ukraine to look into the extortion scheme, which to me was a perfectly reasonable thing to ask. And this morning, I watched a half-hour press conference by sleazebag Adam Schiff, playing his usual role of spewing garbage. And this didn't start with Trump. For years, the left has been inciting violence against the Tea Partiers, whom they addressed with the epithet "teabaggers," which is as bad as the n-word, and have been doubling down on inciting violence since Trump became president. The Ku Klux Klan was the military arm of the Democratic party for a century after the end of the Civil War, formed because the Democrats wanted slavery to continue, and now Antifa is the new military arm of the Democratic party, but instead of targeting 12 million blacks, they're targeting 60 million Trump supporters. So I'm just totally sickened and disgusted by all this. But if you really don't want to read about this, then don't. There are plenty of other threads in this forum, not to mention a whole internet full of stuff. As an aside, thousands of people read my web site every day, about a thousand people read the Generational Dynamics forum every day, and about 700 people are on my mailing list. So there are people who are as sick and disgusted as I am, and who want to read about what's going on in the world, from the technical, non-ideological methodology that I provide. P.S.: I commend pbrower2a for having the guts to challenge what I've written. The vast majority of people, on both the left and right, are total cowards, and wouldn't dare. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 09-25-2019 (09-25-2019, 08:44 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Sep-2019 Burning down the world RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 09-25-2019 (09-25-2019, 12:16 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:GenX wants to burn down the rotten establishment, while the establishment, wants to burn down the earth with wars for resources and screw everyone who ain't rich.(09-25-2019, 08:44 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Sep-2019 Burning down the world https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718515000767 After all, that's what 4T's are all about. The prior order becomes defunct. I've already accepted the fact that it's a multipolar world now wrt economic output and assorted world powers can checkmate each other. The sooner out Stink Tanks, MIC, multinationals, etc. BTW, China got lots of IP from the multinationals willingly, you know, because markets. Sure China steals, the US steals. IOW, everyone's asshole stinks. I've experienced the dawning of the age of Aquarius. Now it's the dawning of the age of Ragnarök. I'd guess we agree here as well. After all, GenX ain't the only thing with a lighter. Looks like the Shiite's have some nice little 4th generation warfare weapons. Looks like they want to do a Burn, Baby, Burn to Saudi Arabia. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 09-25-2019 (09-25-2019, 10:25 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 23-Sep-2019 World View: Greta Thunberg She's looking about 30 years into her future. That won't be an issue for us, but it certainly will for her and her entire generation. We Boomers, Xers and even older generations have created a mess, refuse to fix it, and claim we're doing it for them. She's calling bullshit on that. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 09-25-2019 Her future looks bleak, but it has nothing to do with global warming, which has been happening for decades already. Rather, it has to do with her government's willingness to let the elites import cheap labor to prevent her own upward mobility. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-25-2019 (09-22-2019, 11:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Here is one climate projection for the United States: (09-25-2019, 10:23 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Sep-2019 World View: Mao Zedong Racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, and religious bigotry are all deplorable. The problem is that Hillary gave Trump supporters a word about themselves that they thought worthy of pride when in truth it is the opposite. Quote:When I was writing the book, someone suggested that I could be Criticizing a government is not racist. Note well that China took a huge step forward in economic development when the Chinese Communist Party abandoned Marxist economics -- if not the dictatorship. It is hardly surprising, in view of the disaster that Marxist economic pose in imposing some insane economic ideas (a market does wonders in stopping waste) that capitalist Taiwan and capitalist Hong Kong, neither of which experienced Marxist economic madness, had huge head starts over the PRC. And let's not forget Overseas Chinese, model minorities everywhere that they are, including the USA. Quote:The same is true of the Japanese and South Koreans, as well as. Don;t ask me to defend Marxism-Leninism in any form, including Maoism. Quote:[quote pid='46046' dateline='1568897033'] The fact that the CCP is planning a war of revenge against Japan and a war of annexation against Taiwan is difficult to blame on racism, especially since the Taiwanese are Chinese too. [/quote] Not proved. Quote:(09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > But Mao Zedong was Chinese (which excuses much to many Chinese), I'm not in the loony left. Mao has a huge and inexcusable body count. Note well that there were plenty in the New left of the 1960's who still believed in Marxism because they thought that capitalists were "pigs" and still believed in the Marxist promise of a more just and equitable society. That is over. The real menace is in people who endorse qualities in bad capitalism that suggest a need for drastic reform, if not outright revolution. Quote:In my book, I quoted Soviet communist theory dating back to the 1920s, Mao, I believe, had no clue about the harm that he was doing. That goes with the territory of the True Believer. Quote:Oh wait! Now I get your point! You're right! Mao did want to Chiang Kai-Shek's regime was no paragon of "democracy, good governance, concern for human rights, independent judiciary, free elections, free markets, and so forth". Maybe if it had been it might have made Mao irrelevant. Lord Acton's dintum that absolute power corrupts absolutely applies well to Mao Zedong. Quote:So you're right! You've made an amazing point! Mao replaced the The loonier they are, the more certain is their failure. Don't get me wrong: a commie like Ceausescu can be much like Mussolini in many respects other than the means of demise for both. Quote:(09-19-2019, 07:43 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > There are totalitarians in high places in American life, now If one million of those Trump supporters decide that their 2016 votes were catastrophic mistakes, then Trump loses. I'd rather flatter some into recognizing that they need not make the same mistake in 2020. You seem like an intelligent and perceptive fellow -- so how can you defend Donald Trump? He is a pathological liar, a sex fiend, and a bad businessman; he holds decades of American political and legal heritage in contempt. Casting off 240 years of history is something one does not do lightly. One needs compelling reason. The distinction between expressions of hatred and acts of horror against the same people is not enough to have kept Julius Streicher from being hanged and Froduald Karamira (Rwanda) from being shot. The difference is that there is still free expression in America, so his words are not tantamount to command as were those of Streicher or Karamira. (09-22-2019, 11:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The consequences of such an ecological disaster as global warming This is completely hallucinatory. There's no limit to the total craziness of loony left climate activists.[/quote] The death could come from wars that global warming makes certain. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-25-2019 ** 25-Sep-2019 Greta Thunberg (09-25-2019, 12:38 PM)David Horn Wrote: > She's looking about 30 years into her future. That won't be an Actually, I doubt that she even knows what she's talking about. She's a puppet, mouthing the words of her puppetmaster, the climate change activists who couldn't care less about the climate, but who are looking for fat monetary payouts into their climate funds to keep themselves employed and keep African warlords fully supplied with weapons. As for Greta Thunberg, she's proven herself to be able to deliver lines very dramatically, so I would not be surprised at all if she's currently negotiating for a part in a movie or tv situation comedy. |