Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-07-2019 ** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Decision to withdraw from NE Syria generates controversy
When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary. The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise was made. Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now has has issued the following statement: Quote: "The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not, and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with Turkish troops. Erdogan has said that Turkey will establish a 20-mile "safe zone" or "buffer zone" in northern Syria, along the border with Turkey, and will use that to prevent the further influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey. There are many Kurds and their families living in the intended buffer zone, and it's not clear how Turkey will handle them. Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters originally came from other countries, especially European countries, to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners. A White House statement said: Quote: "The United States Government has pressed France, Trump tweeted: Quote: "When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision. Quote: "The biggest lie being told by the administration [is] Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in criticizing Trump's decision. ---- Sources: -- Defying Pentagon, Trump Backs Turkish Operation in Syria Targeting U.S.-backed Kurds https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/defying-pentagon-trump-turkey-erdogan-syria-u-s-backed-kurds-1.7950055 (Haaretz, 7-Oct-2019) -- 'Disaster in the making': Fellow Republicans torch Trump's Syria policy https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/07/trump-turkey-syria-invasion-037052 (Politico, 7-Oct-2019) -- Turkey threatens military operation into Syria against American-backed Kurdish forces https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/10/06/turkey-threatens-military-operation-into-syria-against-american-backed-kurdish-forces/ (AP, 6-Oct-2019) -- To set up ‘safe zone,’ US wades into muddled Syria politics https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/09/08/to-set-up-safe-zone-us-wades-into-muddled-syria-politics/ (AP, 8-Sep-2019) -- US troops start pullout from along Turkey’s border in Syria https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2019/10/07/us-troops-start-pullout-from-along-turkeys-border-in-syria/ (AP, 7-Oct-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-07-2019 The Scumbag In Chief strikes again! If the so-called security wing of the GOP continues to back him after this, then he truly has made them into sock puppets, and they need to be removed from the scene in full. I'm no Republican, but I did at least respect their ideas, while disagreeing more often than not. That was then ... RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-07-2019 ** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Darfur, Syria and Iraq (10-07-2019, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote: > The Scumbag In Chief strikes again! If the so-called security Lol! Everybody has wars that they love and adore. During the 2000s, the war in Darfur was the stylish, highly fashionable war to support because why? Well, nobody said, but I guess it's because "Black Lives Matter." So Jesse Jackson complained endlessly about the war in Iraq, but then complained because we weren't sending troops into the civil war in Darfur. Joe Biden was the same. He wanted thousands of troops to be withdrawn from Iraq and moved into the civil war in Darfur. Liberals and leftists in Hollywood even visited Darfur and demanded that Bush send troops. If we'd actually listened to those idiots, it would have been a disaster. So I assume you're one of the ones who whined that Bush should withdraw troops from fighting the jihadists in Iraq. But now? You're whining that Trump should NOT withdraw the troops who have been fighting the jihadists in Syria, which is right next door to Iraq. I guess the war in Syria has become stylish and fashionable. Developing Generational Dynamics has always been so fulfilling. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-07-2019 I suspect the captives will be converted to Turkish irregulars to help fight against Iran. But maybe that's just wishful thinking. 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' - John J. Xenakis - 10-07-2019 *** 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' **** Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria (Anadolu) For over a year, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been demanding to invade Syria and set up a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," a strip of land 20 miles wide in northern Syria, along the border with Turkey. The plans have always been blocked by president Donald Trump and by the presence of American troops in the region, which would mean that an invasion by Turkish troops would result in a military clash between two members of Nato. Erdogan's objectives in setting up the buffer zone include the following:
Erdogan has wanted to put this plan into effect for over a year, but was prevented from doing so by the Trump and the United States. However, in the last couple of months, Erdogan has evidently told Trump that Turkey will go ahead with the invasion whether American troops are present or not. **** **** Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria **** When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary. The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise was made. The Kurds are now saying that they've been betrayed and "stabbed in the back." Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now has has issued the following statement: <QUOTE>"The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for ... almost 3 years, but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."<END QUOTE> Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not, and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with Turkish troops. **** **** Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters **** Erdogan and Trump meet in June Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters originally came from other countries, especially European countries, to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners. A White House statement said: <QUOTE>"The United States Government has pressed France, Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years."<END QUOTE> Trump tweeted: <QUOTE>"When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS Caliphate, ... including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters, mostly from Europe. But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I said 'NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for trials.' They ... again said 'NO,' thinking, as usual, that the U.S. is always the 'sucker,' on NATO, on Trade, on everything."<END QUOTE> South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision. <QUOTE>"The biggest lie being told by the administration [is] that ISIS is defeated. This impulsive decision by the president has undone all the gains we've made, thrown the region into further chaos. ... I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted and irresponsible this decision is in my view."<END QUOTE> Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in criticizing Trump's decision. **** **** The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria **** There is a very passionate debate going on in Washington over this decision, and it's a relief that it's a real debate, not like the impeachment crap. Some of the criticism is motivated by hatred of Trump by people who don't have a clue who the Kurds are. In some cases, people opposing the withdrawal of troops fighting jihadists in Syria are the same people who, twelve years ago, demanded the withdrawal of troops fighting jihadists in Iraq, because they hated George Bush. Those who sincerely oppose the decision to withdraw have several reasons. One reason is that they fear a bloodbath as Turkish forces invade villages occupied by Kurds and their families in northease Syria. Erdogan has said that this fear is unjustified, as Turkish forces have already taken control of of al-Bab and Jarabulus in midwestern Syria, and there was no Kurdish bloodbath. Another reason is the loss of American credibility from betraying our allies, the Kurds. America also abandoned the Kurds in Iraq when they were attacked by Saddam Hussein. One of the biggest reasons for concern is the possible resurgence of ISIS. Although the ISIS Caliphate in Raqqa has been eliminated, there are still about 10,000 ISIS fighters being held by the Kurds in a prison camp in the desert, along with tens of thousands of their family members. The ISIS fighters are still being funded, and in the chaos of a clash between Turkish and Kurdish forces, they could regroup and recapture territory. On Monday, Donald Trump gave the reasons for the withdrawal in several press conferences on Monday. He pointed out that it was only small pullout. He said that only a few dozen soldiers are being pulled back from observation posts in a region on the border where Turkey will be entering Syria. It's believed that further pullouts will follow later. Trump also said that he didn't want American troops to be in Syria for ever, and he asked if we can't withdraw troops now, then when can we? Trump said that the Kurds and the Turks have been fighting for centuries, and it's not up to the Americans to keep them apart forever. The implication is that he expects a clash, and he doesn't want the American forces to be involved. In the past, Trump has made similar remarks about wanting to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but political pressures have prevented him from doing it. This whole debate gets to the heart of America's role in the world since the end of World War II. As I've discussed many times, president Harry Truman adopted the Truman Doctrine that made America policeman of the world. John F. Kennedy repeated and emphasized this principle in his inauguration speech: Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country. The justification given for the Truman Doctrine was as follows: It's better to pay a small amount of blood and treasure now to resolve a small clash than to wait and allow the clash to expand into another world war, with massive costs in blood and treasure. This argument was made at a time when people said that if Hitler had been killed in 1935, there would have been no world war or Holocaust. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a completely flawed analysis. World War II and the Holocaust would have occurred with or without Hitler. A small American expenditure in blood and treasure will have no effect whatsoever on whether there is another world war. So the withdrawal from Syria may have political or legacy implications, but it won't cause or prevent a major war. The withdrawal from Syria is all determined by political pressure, and it's even that political pressures may force Trump to reverse his withdrawal plans for Syria again. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, al-Bab, Jarabulus, Truman Doctrine Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 10-08-2019 "...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are starting to see this questioned because of generational turn over? Consider the generations that remember Word War II. The G.I. remnant is in the Old-old phase. The Silents are old and fading away. The Boomers remember the Cold War, but the Cold War was not cataclysmic, and ended with a whimper. The Xers were soldiers in these Endless Wars. I don't know of any reason for Millenials to want the same. (BTW, I don't think that I would love and adore a war between the USA and Turkey). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-08-2019 ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: ISIS prisoners of Syria's Kurds become political pawn President Trump's announcement that American troops would stand aside when Turkish troops invade Syria to establish a buffer zone or "safe zone" has highlighted the importance of the ISIS prisoners that are being guarded by Kurdish soldiers in prison camps. Reports are varying about the size of the problem. The number of ISIS fighters being held is between 10,000 and 20,000, according to different reports. The number of family members is around 50-60,000. They are being guarded by 75,000 Kurdish soldiers in prison camps. Most of the ISIS fighters are Iraqis and Syrians. A few hundred of the ISIS fighters came from Britain, France, Germany and other European countries. Turkey claims that it will take responsibility for all the prisoners, but it's far from clear that they're capable of doing so, even if they really want to. Donald Trump says that he repeatedly asked the European countries to repatriate their own citizens, and try them in courts in their own countries. However, they have repeatedly refused and, according to Trump, they have told him to take responsibility for all the ISIS prisoners, and move them to Guantánamo Bay prison, at American taxpayer expense, which Trump is refusing to do. So that sets up the issues. Top Kurdish General Mazloum Kobani Abdi is saying that, because of the expected Turkish invasion, Kurdish troops are being evacuated from guarding the ISIS prisoners, and are being redeployed to the border with Turkey. One analyst suggested that the Kurds might hire the ISIS fighters and pay them to fight against the Turks. It's feared that in the chaos of a Turkish invasion, all Kurdish prison guards will be redeployed. This would leave the ISIS fighters free to go anywhere -- to return to Europe, or regroup in Syria. The Kurds themselves, who say they have been abandoned and betrayed by the Americans, may form their own alliances with Russia or with Syria's Bashar al-Assad. Trump's decision was not a total withdrawal from Syria, but only a redeployment of 50-100 soldiers at observation posts to other places in Syria, so that they won't be caught in the crossfire between Turks and Kurds. There are political pressures to reverse even this decision, but that would not stop a Turkish invasion, but would only put the American soldiers in the crossfire. ---- Sources: -- General Mazloum Kobani Abdi / Top Kurdish general: Watching over ISIS prisoners now a 'second priority' https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/top-kurdish-general-watching-over-isis-prisoners-now-second-priority-n1063496 (NBCNews, 7-Oct-2019) -- British Isis fighters in Syria 'may be freed if US allows Turkey invasion' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/07/isis-fighters-in-syria-may-regain-liberty-if-us-allows-turkey-to-invade (Guardian, London, 7-Oct-2019) -- Trump's shock Syria retreat reverberates as Turkish troops mass https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/07/us-withdrawal-from-syria-leaves-fate-of-isis-fighters-and-families-in-detention-uncertain (Guardian, London, 8-Oct-2019) ---- Related article: ** 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191008.htm#e191008 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-08-2019 ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine (10-08-2019, 02:13 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > "...the heart of America's role in the world...." Perhaps we are Every president from Truman to Bush 43 followed the Truman Doctrine. The Silents and Boomers thought it was important. The Millennials don't have the vaguest clue what it's about, and couldn't find the relevant countries on a map. Obama didn't see any use for the Truman Doctrine. Trump is repudiating it, but that could be because he's reallocating forces in preparation for the war with China. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-08-2019 (10-07-2019, 01:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Oct-2019 World View: Darfur, Syria and Iraq My point from day one hasn't changed. We had absolutely no business walking away in Tora Bora, when al Qaeda was there for the taking. If we had done that, told the Taliban not to try anything similar in the future and left, none of the post-911 nonsense in the Middle East would have occurred. Iraq? That was a clusterf*ck from the minute the idea crept into Dick Cheney's head. We've paid for it 50-fold ever since. But once you make the decision to go all-in, the onus shifts to you , and that's where the US finds itself after the Neocon Follies. We buried ourselves in the region, and, among other things, made and received commitments with the Kurds which they kept in full. Walking away, leaving them to the tender mercies of Erdogan, would be criminal in and of itself, but classically self defeating if another conflict occurs -- as it probably will at some point. I assume you see this, but you were having fun be sarcastic. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-08-2019 (10-08-2019, 12:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine Trump just asked China to dig up dirt on a son of Joe Biden. China refused. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-09-2019 ** 09-Oct-2019 World View: US troop withdrawal from Syria (10-08-2019, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: > My point from day one hasn't changed. We had absolutely no Actually, I didn't see this at all. I just assumed that, like almost all people on the left, you favored the Iraq war when everyone thought Saddam was developing WMDs, and then after the war showed that Saddam was not developing WMDs, you changed your mind and decided that, oh, you were against the war all along. And let's face it. When you use phrases like "The Scumbag In Chief," as in your previous post, you're self-identifying as someone as purely ideological who shouldn't be taken seriously, and that everything you say is based on your vitriolic hatred of Trump and Bush, and your devoted love and adoration of Obama. The result was "having fun being sarcastic." A guy's gotta have some fun. But OK, you're saying that's wrong, and that in fact you've been consistently taking principled positions, based on something like the following principle: Principle: Once you make the decision to go all-in, then you have to stay in, until {some undefined} condition is met. So let's see how this is applied:
The principle that once you're "all in" you can never leave is interesting. We still have troops in Germany since the end of WW II. We still have troops in South Korea since the end of the Korean War. In Africa alone, we have 6,000 troops in missions in 53 African countries. I guess they're there forever. Are we really "all in" in Syria forever? I assume not, since we've provided weapons, intelligence and air support to the Kurds for the purpose of defeating ISIS, but not troops. That doesn't seem like "all in" to me. Trump says that the original agreement with the Kurds was that we'd provide support, weapons and money for 30 to 90 days until ISIS was defeated, and then we'd leave. Trump says that there was never any commitment to protect the Kurds forever. Then there's the question of why it's only America's problem. This is also Europe's problem -- in fact, it's much worse for them -- so why can't Britain, France and Germany take responsibility for protecting the Kurds, and for taking back ISIS prisoners from their own countries? Why is it up to just the US to protect the Kurds forever, and to transfer 50,000 prisoners to Guantánamo prison? Why can't the Europeans take responsibility for them? The Europeans can move all 50,000 prisoners to some Mediterranean island, and handle them by themselves. Also, Turkey is a Nato member with a population that includes 14 million Kurds. If Turkey can govern its own 14 million Kurdish citizens, why can't we allow Turkey to govern 2 million more Kurds in Syria? Some Kurds in Turkey support the PKK, and some Kurds in Syria support the PKK. Why can't Turkey govern both? And does it really make sense for American soldiers to be responsible for years, centuries, and millennia to come to sit between the Turks and the Syrian Kurds? Finally, Erdogan said he was going ahead with the invasion whether Americans occupy the observation posts or not. So what's the point of putting them in the crossfire if they're not accomplishing anything? So that's the reasoning of the "Scumbag in Chief." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-09-2019 ** 09-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey begins 'Operation Peace Spring' in northern Syria According to a tweet this morning from Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Quote: "Our Turkish Armed Forces with Syrian National Army
There are few details available, but so far we know that there are Turkish airstrikes and Turkish Armed Forces, the latter joining the Arab forces in the Syrian National Army. ---- Sources: -- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-troops-syrian-national-army-begin-operation-peace-spring-in-northern-syria-erdogan-147320 (Hurriyet, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019) -- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/operation-peace-spring-starts-in-n-syria-erdogan/1607147 (Anadolu, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-09-2019 Let's see whether the feckless Republicans manage to take action on Turkey. Note: no other Trumpian misstep has gotten strong, or really any, GOP condemnation. This is on Lindsey Graham 100%. If nothing happens, the GOP is truly lost. Where we would go from here is still speculative, but it has to away from this toxic party. To be honest, they are already pretty toxic without all this blood on their hands. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-09-2019 ** 09-Oct-2019 A logical and analytic gem! (10-09-2019, 12:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Let's see whether the feckless Republicans manage to take action Wow! That's an amazing statement, grounded in well-defined principles, showing depth of historical and analytical understanding, and exhibiting a relentless flow of sophisticated logic that would make Aristotle proud. You should be a college professor, and win a Nobel prize! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-09-2019 (10-08-2019, 12:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Oct-2019 World View: Truman Doctrine Obama's foreign policy was inertia, which looked sane and effective enough. Communism had disappeared as a meaningful menace to the United States and its allies except in Korea. Face it: Barack Obama was still a young adult when Communism collapsed in central and Balkan Europe. Obama had spent most of his adult life in the post-Cold War world before he became President. Trump is incompetent and reckless enough to bungle his way into a very nasty war... He may not be planning a major war, but he can certainly get one. He thinks much like the despotic kings who started wars over minor slights, and that is consummately dangerous. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-10-2019 (10-09-2019, 03:13 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Oct-2019 A logical and analytic gem! Setting aside the snark, what do you really think? When we purposely throw an ally under the bus for <insert the reason, if you have one>, that reason had better be a lot stronger than,"... they didn't fight with us in Normandy." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2019 ** 10-Oct-2019 What do I really think? (10-10-2019, 08:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Setting aside the snark, what do you really think? When we I'll start by making my usual disclaimer that Generational Dynamics is like weather forecasting. There are no policy recommendations for whether we should make it rain or be sunny, nor are there moral judgments about rain or sun being good or bad. It just tells you whether it will be rain or sun, and let's you decide what to do about it. ("I report, you decide.") Turkey has been planning for this invasion for over a year, and has been massing forces on the border. It makes absolutely no difference whether Trump withdraws those 50 observers or not -- sooner or later (and probably sooner), Erdogan was going through with the invasion no matter what. Here's an article that gives Erdogan's position: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/109-terrorists-neutralized-in-operation-peace-spring-erdogan-147355 My personal opinion is that maybe Trump should have announced it differently, but that there was no choice except to withdraw the 50 soldiers from the observation posts. Furthermore, the Kurds may well be playing us, since they know we've never committed to protecting them for millennia into the future, and anyway, they're Communists. We live in a world where everyone (except me) is lying, and saying whatever they want for money, power, sex or votes. You cannot imagine or fathom how sickened I am by what I see on the news in the world today. With the rise of Generation-X, there is no morality left anywhere in the world although, in my opinion, Trump is the closest we have, especially since he's ignoring the noise and focusing on the threat from the worst, most immoral, and most despicable liars of all, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). And to get snarky again, I've been through this too many times. Anti-war Democrats supported the Iraq war before it happened, but then later pretended that they had opposed the war all along. So here we go again. Let's get US soldiers involved in the war between Turks and Kurds, so that later we can pretend we were against doing anything of the sort, and then we can impeach again. It gives me a headache and makes me want to throw up. So that's what I really think. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2019 P.S.: AOC campaigned on withdrawing from Syria, but now she's changed her mind and warns of "catastrophic consequences": Quote: "Trump’s sudden withdrawal from northern Syria & Pathetic. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aoc-suddenly-flip-flops-now-thinks-pulling-out-syria-terrible-idea 11-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal conde - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2019 *** 11-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** European Union threatens Turkey, after Syria invasion **** EU Parliament VP Federica Mogherini. She could be a lot hotter if she learned how to smile. Turkey is receiving almost universal international condemnation for launching its long-planned military invasion of northern Syria. Turkey has been massing forces on the border for a year, with the objective of setting up a buffer zone in northern Syria, and neutralizing the PKK terrorists living there. In the long run, Turkey would also like to relocate some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that it's hosting into the buffer zone. Officials from countries around the world are demanding that Turkey end the invasion immediately. The most interesting condemnation is a speech by EU Parliament VP Federica Mogherini, in which she made the following farcical statement: <QUOTE>"The Turkish operation into north-east Syria can open a new dramatic chapter in the already very dark history of the Syrian war. The potential consequences of such military action are clear to everyone – at least are very clear to us. The repercussions can be extremely serious in humanitarian, military, political and strategic terms. For all these reasons, we call upon Turkey to immediately stop its unilateral military action. ... But Turkey’s legitimate security concerns should be addressed through political and diplomatic means, not military action, in accordance with international humanitarian law. We urge all to always ensure the protection of civilians and unhindered, safe and sustainable humanitarian access throughout Syria. Our goal remains to help the Syrian people build a united, sovereign, democratic and inclusive Syria. A sustainable solution to the Syrian crisis will not come through military means. I think that this is very clear to all, at least this is very clear to us Europeans. The only way to achieve peace and security in Syria is the full implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2254 under UN auspices."<END QUOTE> I suppose that I shouldn't be so hard on Mogherini. After all what else can she say? She's just a puppet saying what she has to say. If she said something different, she'd just be replaced by a different puppet. **** **** United Nations makes new delusional statements on Syria **** Mogherini's statement is completely delusional. UN Security Council Resolution 2254, adopted on December 15, 2015, says that everyone in Syria should stop fighting and expresses support for "a Syrian-led political process that is facilitated by the United Nations and, within a target of six months, establishes credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance and sets a schedule and process for drafting a new constitution, and further expresses its support for free and fair elections." This is totally laughable. Against that, we have the psychopathic, sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who freely uses barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas on women and children, in order to exterminate his political enemies, and who is supported by Iran, who wants a clear path to Israel and the Mediterranean Sea, and which routinely uses torture, rape, beatings and murder itself. Al-Assad is also supported by Russia, which doesn't care about al-Assad's use of chemical weapons and genocide, as long as it gets its military bases at Tartus and Hmeimim. Russia, which has no hesitation to commit genocide when it's convenient, also loves the Kurds because they're Communists. Since 2012, the United Nations Security Council has put forth one farcial resolution after another. Bashar al-Assad, Russia and Iran have used these as cover for their use of barrel bombs, chlorine gas, Sarin gas and genocide of women and children. Bashar al-Assad has made fools of one credulous UN envoy after another -- Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. Obviously, the same kind of thing is happening now with Mogherini. If United Nations officials didn't have delusions, then they would have any thoughts at all. **** **** Turkey's Erdogan responds to European Union's threat with his own threat **** So everyone, including Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, knows that UN Security Council Resolution 2254 is completely farcical. But as we said, what else can Mogherini, except her ridiculously delusional statement. Turkey has been hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees, and 300,000 of them are Syrian Kurds, who have fled the violence of Syria's civil war. Erdogan has frequently expressed anger at the EU for not supporting Turkey, which is a Nato member, although after years of negotiations, the EU did agree to pay some financial assistance (3 billion euros) for the refugees. However, in her speech, Mogherini threatened to limit this financial assistance. Erdogan responded on Thursday in a speech to his governing party: <QUOTE>"The objective of our operation is to avoid the establishment of a terror state in the south. That’s what we are working for. Just like other operations conducted by Turkey, the objective of the Peace Spring is to contribute to the territorial integrity and political unity of [4]Syria. It’s quite obvious that one can talk about the territorial integrity and political unity of this country while one-fourth of its territories are under the occupation of the PKK/YPG."<END QUOTE> Erdogan referred to the 300,000 Syrian Kurdish refugees that Turkey is hosting, and the Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) political party in Turkey.] <QUOTE>"Let’s first see this. They are still in our country. Why don’t we talk about it? America does not see this, nor does the EU. To whom will we explain all these? Then we should tell this to our own people. There is a political party at the parliament which takes support from a terror organization. They will never see but we will let them see one way or another. You [the HDP] cannot describe our operation as an invasion. You cannot depict our army as an invading force."<END QUOTE> Erdogan responded to Mogherini's threat to cut off financial assistance to Turkey for hosting the 3.6 million refugees with a threat of his own: <QUOTE>"Hey, European Union! Pull yourself together. I repeat it: If you try to describe our operation as an invasion, we will do what’s easy for us: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million refugees to you. ... You have not given anything to us for our efforts (to host refugees). It was us who spent $40 billion. We’ll continue our path by spending the same amount of money, but we will then open the doors. You cannot remain silent when terror organizations attack Turkey."<END QUOTE> **** **** ISIS prisoners in limbo **** Syria camps for displaced people. Families of ISIS prisoners are in Roj, Ain ISSA, and al-Hol. (BBC) Thousands of displaced Syrians are living in temporary camps. The families of suspected ISIS prisoners are help in three of them, Roj, Ain ISSA, and al-Hol, which house 1,700, 12,900 and 68,000 people, respectively. Al-Hol is about 60 km from Turkey and so would not be in the proposed buffer zone. More than 94% of the people at al-Hol are women and children, and 11,000 are foreign nationals. Many of the ISIS prisoners are being guarded by Kurdish forces, and their disposition is now the subject of finger-pointing. Donald Trump says that some EU officials have asked him to transfer them to Guantánamo prison, which he refused. Trump has asked the EU nations to take back their own citizens that went to Syria to join ISIS, but they're refusing. Mogherini is demanding that Turkey take full responsibility for them, but whether that will happen remains to be seen. **** **** Anti-war politicians blame Donald Trump **** Mostly left-wing politicians in Washington are blaming Donald Trump for causing the invasion by withdrawing 50 soldiers from observation posts in Syria near the Turkey border. This is laughable, considering that Turkey has been massing forces on the border for a year in preparation for this invasion, and 50 troops would have made no difference. Trump says that the original agreement with the Kurds was that we'd provide support, weapons and money for 30 to 90 days until ISIS was defeated, and then we'd leave. Trump says that there was never any commitment to protect the Kurds forever. Now we're hearing that Democrats want US soldiers to intervene to protect the Kurds. I've been through this too many times. Anti-war democrats supported the Iraq war before it happened, but then later pretended that they had opposed the war all along. So here we go again. Let's get US soldiers involved in the war between Turks and Kurds, so that later we can pretend we were against doing anything of the sort, and then we can impeach again. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Although all of those wars are coming with absolutely certainty, it's impossible to predict the exact scenarios that will bring them about. One possible scenario is that they will be triggered by a war in northern Syria. One thing is certain: World War III will occur whether the 50 US soldiers are withdrawn or not. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, European Union, Federica Mogherini, Nato, UN Security Council Resolution 2254, Russia, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase, Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Roj, Ain ISSA, al-Hol, Guantánamo prison Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-11-2019 (10-10-2019, 03:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: P.S.: AOC campaigned on withdrawing from Syria, but now she's You know, there is a lot of sunlight between withdrawing in an organized fashion, with all one's allies onboard, and this. What about the 1,000 hardcore ISIS fighters who will undoubtedly vaporize from the scene? No thought needed, apparently. At the very least, the Kurds deserved a few weeks advance notice to make real plans and execute on them. Telling people to piss off starting tomorrow is criminal, when they are the ones who are going to die. Trump just figures he saved a few million dollars -- his one and only priority. |