Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 11-07-2019 (11-06-2019, 09:27 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:(11-06-2019, 08:30 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: What word would you prefer that I use? Personally I consider the "high" to be the most repressive era even in the US after WWII, but at least everyone on this forum knows what time period it means.I tend to believe that it was called a high because it actually was a loosening of the restrictive mood of the GDWWII years. Emotions may have been strained for those not in the Organization Man/Suzy Homemaker camp, but for the most part not as much as the turnings before and after. Many blue and white collar families alike, so long as they were not communist sympathizers didn’t have to worry about daddy coming home jobless. Mom and pop stores and diners were still abundant in an era of stability where the biggest disruption may have been Elvis Presley’s wiggle which some considered obscene. Households of the “Leave it to Beaver” era were swept away in a sea of prosperity and, for the most part outside of Hollywood, family stability as divorce was still highly stigmatized within the mainstream. And while the earth began to shake a bit when Rosa Parks refused to go to the back of the bus, the major upheaval was still a decade away. Xenakis prefers "recovery". The post-Crisis might be a hard era of extreme hardship due to the destruction of institutions and infrastructure -- think of Poland after WWII. I have showed imagers of Warsaw immediately after the war. The middle class, including the intelligentsia, the szlachta (a semi-aristocratic class), and of course the Jews (who were many of the country's entrepreneurs) were decimated. Such children as there are are often orphans. Public institutions must be re-established. People are almost all uprooted. Add to this, the country went from a proud independence to a complete subjection under horrible masters only to go quickly under the rule of masters that the People would have never voted in. Physical reality will shape what is possible, as will the character of the ruling elite that either returns, emerges, or is imposed from elsewhere. People will do what is necessary, which might be back-breaking toil for near-starvation wages.... or two meals of porridge or soup with perhaps a little bread and a hot beverage on the side -- and a makeshift bed in a makeshift dwelling. Most people will have little desire to shake things up. Things were shaken enough in recent years of the most dangerous years of the Crisis Era, thank you. Normal starts to civilian careers and family life have been put off perhaps into the mid-20's, and any taste for experiment is gone. People are making up for lost time and opportunities. So get wed, get a civilian job (just about anything is better than combat), and be thankful that you can do that. Soldiers may have gotten to see the world -- but they saw it at its worst. What might have been a charming village before the war in France was likely a steaming wreck with the stench of death, espcially in the summer of 1944. Exotic ideas? Forget them! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - beechnut79 - 11-07-2019 (11-03-2019, 11:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The people most vulnerable to persecution are all-too-often people who by any reasonable standard are 'model majorities' -- people identifiably different, but successful. That irks the Hell out of those of the anti-human, anti-capitalist forms of capitalism. Think of Jews in Spain before Jews got the choice to flee with nothing or convert and keep their property -- but be monitored for any lapses into old Jewish ways of life (in Spain, such could include failure to eat pork(pork of course violates Kosher dietary laws), keeping seven-fold candelabras, using unleavened bread on Easter Sunday, giving their children Hebrew names such as "Abraham" and "Sarah" (not always a strictly-Jewish practice -- see Puritan-era New England and of course Mennonites), or having secretive meetings on Saturday or known Jewish holidays.But it was a German-American who led us through the rigors of WWII and later was very popular as President. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-07-2019 ** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years (11-05-2019, 12:06 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Yes, I think that the 80 year span is a good theory because it is The 80 year span is a completely different thing from the span in the 58 Year Hypothesis. The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a catastrophic event occurs that affects the entire population. Focusing on the crisis war cycle, 58 years is the length of time from the end of the crisis war -- more specifically the crisis war climax -- to the beginning of the next Fourth Turning Crisis era -- 1945 to 2003 in the current context. The 58 Years is a hard number -- it depends ONLY on generational changes, and is not affected by events. The 80 year span refers to something completely different -- the end of one crisis war to the end of the next crisis war -- 1945 to 2025 in the current context. However, this is NOT a hard number, since it depends on the start and length of the crisis war, and that depends on the time when the Regeneracy occurs, which is an external event at variable times. So the 80 year span can become a 70 year span or a 90 year span, depending on when the Regeneracy occurs. Code: |-----------------------------------------|-------|......| RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 11-08-2019 (11-06-2019, 08:30 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Personally I consider the "high" to be the most repressive era even in the US after WWII, but at least everyone on this forum knows what time period it means. Are you a Boomer? Because only a "Prophet" can say something that ignorant. Hell, there are people in Germany who claim the 1950s were WORSE THAN UNDER HITLER! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 11-08-2019 (11-07-2019, 01:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The post-Crisis might be a hard era of extreme hardship due to the destruction of institutions and infrastructure -- think of Poland after WWII. I have showed imagers of Warsaw immediately after the war. The middle class, including the intelligentsia, the szlachta (a semi-aristocratic class), and of course the Jews (who were many of the country's entrepreneurs) were decimated. Why post-crisis? I'm pretty sure all of that was caused by those nazi guys. (11-07-2019, 01:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Exotic ideas? Forget them! Existentialism became pretty big in the post-Crisis era. Unfortunately. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 11-08-2019 Oh, and about those who think big wars were there for population reduction: After World War 2, there were more humans alive than before! So much about that. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-08-2019 ** 06-Nov-2019 World View: Deficit vincecate Wrote:> What are other people's expectations as far as I've posted this in the past, but I've become very philosophical about the national debt. I really have to laugh every day when I see some politician or analyst or pundit say that "some day" we're going to have to start reducing the national debt. It's a big joke. That's never going to happen. Any politician that says it is completely full of crap. And what difference does it make? If the national debt is $20 trillion or $30 trillion or $100 trillion, how much will it matter when we're at war with China? Or, as Higgie says, when we enter a new dark age. Or when the AI robots are our overlords? It's going to be an unbelievable disaster no matter what the number is. Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-08-2019 ** 07-Nov-2019 World View: Generational Dynamics 'Doom Articles' Guest Wrote:> Many doom articles. However, you will find very little available utahbob Wrote:> John, thank you for running this forum. I tell people that they That's an interesting point about using modern technology to store and archive atrocities. With regard to "doom articles": You're right that there is no other web site that covers this kind of material. It really is amazing that GenerationalDynamics.com is unique in the world. The generational methodology has proven to be a major development for producing accurate analyses and forecasts. No other web site comes close. While I'm at it, let me provide an update on the future of Generational Dynamics and me. As I wrote a year ago, I'm going to run out of money, and that will be the end of Generational Dynamics and me. I had expected to be gone by now. But I've cut expenses, and I got a small amount of work writing. In addition, I've gotten a number of small donations, for which I'm extremely grateful. These have allowed me to extend my life into next year, probably somewhere between February and April. But it's not enough. There's still always hope that someone will offer me a job as a Senior Software Engineer or a journalist/analyst, but after two years it's clear that people my age are almost universally viewed as garbage, and there is no credible hope for me. As for the Generational Dynamics forum, Higgie has agreed to take it over when the time comes. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-08-2019 ** 07-Nov-2019 World View: Russia and Turkey DaKardii Wrote:> John, I have a few things to say about "18-Oct-19 World View -- With regard to Russia and Assad, it's the other way around. The war would have fizzled out quickly if it hadn't been for Assad. Assad is a sociopathic monster, who wants to finish his father's job of exterminating the Sunni Arabs. Even so, he would have lost to the Arabs, except that he got the Russians to support him in return for giving Russia two military bases inside Syria, the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase. Putin is completely lacking in any morality whatsoever, but he isn't the same kind of sociopathic monster as Assad. For Putin, it's just opportunistic genocide and ethnic cleansing. Turkey obviously doesn't want any part of the war in Syria, but they've been forced into it because of the flood of millions of refugees, and because of the threat of a Kurdish state in Syria on the Turkish border. For that reason, Turkey is involved in the war, but as little as possible. DaKardii Wrote:> In my opinion, the war in Syria is causing the entire Middle East Your reference to Syria as a "preparation ground" for a much larger war is a very appealing analogy -- thinking of a growing mass of flammable tinder on the ground, waiting for a match to light it. However, I think it's now months away, not decades. I've written many times about the many wars between Russia and Turkey. ** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e151125.htm#e151125 Nonetheless, I have a great deal of trouble saying with certainty that there will be a crisis war between Turkey and Russia. Here are some issues:
On the other hand, the war between the Christian Armenians and the Turkic Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh could expand into a larger war between Russia and Turkey, but I wouldn't expect that, since it's an Awakening era for both countries. So you may be right that there will be a generational crisis war between Russia and Turkey. I may have suggested it myself in the past. But it's complicated, and certainly not an open and shut case. One more thing: You say "Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing sides in these conflicts," and that's true, but it's still not a war between Russia and Turkey. Particularly what we've seen recently, Russia and Turkey have supported opposing sides in Syria but even more than that they've cooperated with each other to prevent the war from expanding. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 11-08-2019 (11-06-2019, 01:14 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: 1T killings are either victors' retribution (leftists and liberals under Franco) Didn't he do most of that during the 4T before? Then again, it seems that he's the kind of guy who doesn't give up a grudge. Other than that, good list. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-08-2019 (11-07-2019, 08:14 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: This graph seems to imply that the fourth turning necessarily begins at a 58 year echo. Is that what you mean to say, including the implication that the timing between the end of a cycle and the beginning of the next crisis period is exact? Also, it seems to imply that the regeneracy and the beginning of the crisis war are the same event; is that what you mean? I'm not arguing for or against at the moment; I'm just trying to get more clarification on what you're saying Generational Dynamics predicts. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-08-2019 ** 08-Nov-2019 World View: Regeracy vs Start of War Code: |-----------------------------------------|-------|......| (11-08-2019, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > This graph seems to imply that the fourth turning necessarily Yes, the Fourth Turning begins exactly 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war. This is not event-driven. It's purely based on generational changes. I arrived at the number 58 based on many examples in the last 15 years. By contrast, the Regeneracy is an event, and can occur at any time. Here's a table that I've posted before, based on a crisis war climax year YYYY: Code: Eras: Code: Birth years of generations: (11-08-2019, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Also, it seems to imply that the regeneracy and the beginning of Well, the "start of a war" is more a political decision than anything else. When did World War II start? Here are some choices:
So when did WW II start? The Regeneracy is a very important date in generational theory, since it triggers major changes in attitudes and behaviors in the public. By contrast, the date named as "the start date of the war" is almost completely irrelevant, and is often not identified until years later. I often say that the war starts with the regeneracy because it's convenient to do so, even if it's not always precisely true. However, I think it is almost always true that when the Regeneracy occurs, the non-crisis war turns into a full-fledged generational crisis war. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-10-2019 Corrected list of choices for start of WW II:
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-10-2019 Thanks, John. I'd be interested in your thoughts on the Russian Federation thread if you have any you'd like to share. http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5721.html RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 11-11-2019 It's the latter part of the 3T that makes the storm of a 4T possible. Consider what goes on in a degeneracy: institutions other than for-profit institutions weaken, with the for-profit institutions tending toward monopoly and brutal methods of command-and-control. Because honest work is severely underpaid, people start finding get-rich-quick schemes all the more attractive. Mass culture gets raw and cynical, and it falls for showy glitz. Enterprise goes from investment to what is for all practical purposes gambling. The Degeneracy is a time in which people become materialistic in the extreme -- yet fail. Lust for anything rarely gets one what one wants, whether in sex or wealth. Political life reflects the economic values, and the sort of leadership that people seem to want -- and get -- is weak leadership that encourages people to do exactly what they want, which is to make money and enjoy the results. Such reforms as there are are tax cuts. Eventually it fails. Speculative booms are get-rich-quick schemes on a grand scale One can tolerate the nastiness of a 3T so long as one expects that easy money is in reach. When that comes to an end, then all Hell breaks loose. Peopel realize that their lives, politics, and culture are all wholly unsatisfying. In a romance it is perhaps like finding that the Big Spender is bankrupt, perhaps kiting checks to create the illusion of solidity. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Hintergrund - 11-11-2019 Problems began earlier, in the 2T. They were just of a different kind. Unity was broken; the Heroes dared too much and failed (for the first time); they also didn't suppress the idiocies of the younger generations; and Nomads got a shitty childhood. Taken together, we now have about 50 years during when politicians rarely achieved something. A turnaround is about ten years due. Let's hope we don't miss it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-11-2019 (11-11-2019, 01:34 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It's the latter part of the 3T that makes the storm of a 4T possible. Consider what goes on in a degeneracy: institutions other than for-profit institutions weaken, with the for-profit institutions tending toward monopoly and brutal methods of command-and-control. Because honest work is severely underpaid, people start finding get-rich-quick schemes all the more attractive. Mass culture gets raw and cynical, and it falls for showy glitz. Enterprise goes from investment to what is for all practical purposes gambling. Your personal experience in the regeneracy may be failure, but that doesn't mean everyone fails. Most people do just fine. The only accurate point in your post is that the issue is tendency toward monopoly and centralized control, and that doesn't happen until the crisis era. Quote:Hintergrund That's true too; for example, real wages flatlined in the early 1970s while productivity continued growing, albeit slower for a decade or two. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-11-2019 ** 10-Nov-2019 World View: Hyperinflation vincecate Wrote:> Do you think the Fed can print as much as they want without risk Yes and yes. I've told you a million times. Do you recognize the irony that you've been saying exactly the same thing, using the same words, for 15 years, changing only the numbers each year? And still there's no hyperinflation, and barely any inflation at all. vincecate Wrote:> I expect this "Not QE" to print more than $1 trillion in 12 No, it's an ocean, not just a swimming pool. Back in 2008, I was writing a lot about the global debt bubble. As I wrote at the time, the Bank of International Settlements said that there are over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit derivatives and other structured finance securities in the portfolios of financial institutions around the world. Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by the US government. If your $50K home increases in value during a real estate bubble to $500K, and you borrow $400K against your home, then you can spend that money on cars, groceries, sex, or whatever you want. It's the same money. So the debt bubble injected over $1 quadrillion of money into the global economy without causing inflation. And you're telling me that that if the Fed does $4 trillion in QE, it will cause hyperinflation? Bullsh-t. Really, this is the same argument we were having ten years ago. There's not gonna be any hyperinflation. Period. vincecate Wrote:> Even Krugman, who very much likes money printing (nobody would Krugman's an idiot. He got the Nobel prize because he hated Bush. There's a good point to be made here. Most economists are idiots, whether on the right or the left. The only reasons their forecasts are ever right is because they make the same forecasts every year, and that's right most of the time. But if something unusual happens they don't have the vaguest clue. "There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert island. They had no money but over the next three years, they made millions of dollars selling their hats to each other." So listen to Krugman if you'd like. Or dump a bowl of oatmeal on your head. They're roughly equivalent. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-11-2019 ** 10-Nov-2019 World View: Neil Howe and war with China Higgenbotham Wrote:> Neil Howe is asked point blank whether he thinks we are going to Lol! That was a pretty wishy-washy answer, wasn't it. Neil Howe and his spokesman David Kaiser have almost completely given up the TFT theory, because they've turned it into a vehicle for Democratic party politics. The original theory was non-ideological, and made it clear that there would be a major war between 2005 and 2025. But they gave that up during the Bush administration, because it would support the NeoCons. Then they decided that the Fourth Turning crisis would not be a war, but would be the major social changes brought about by Barack Obama's policies, turning America into a social Nirvana. That they could even believe something so ridiculous as that shows that neither of them have the vaguest clue how their own theory works. It seems that the only one who understood the original theory was Bill Strauss, but he's dead. Now in the Trump administration, they're faced with the horrifying reality that we're headed for war with China but, like most people on the left, they'd rather think about impeachment or socialism. The nightmare scenario for them, the worst nightmare in the world, is that Trump would lead America through WW III, making Trump a historic hero, one of the great presidents, like Washington, Lincoln, and Roosevelt. That's too terrible for them even to think about it. So that explains Howe's conflicted answer in the youtube video. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-11-2019 ** 10-Nov-2019 World View: Cuban Missile Crisis John Wrote:> ** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years Higgenbotham Wrote:> What will happen 58 years from the Cuban Missile Crisis? The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed tens of millions of people. The 1929 stock market panic sent tens of millions of people into poverty. The 1945 nuking of Japan killed millions of people. The Cuban Missile Crisis was an overnight political event. It was in no way a catastrophic event. |