Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-06-2019 ** 06-Dec-2019 World View: Jonathan Turley on impeachment (12-05-2019, 12:39 PM)David Horn Wrote: > Turley's argument goes to criminal standards -- uniquely his When he testified, Jonathan Turley went out of his way to make several things clear: He was a liberal Democrat, he didn't like Trump, he didn't vote for Trump, he voted for Hillary Clinton, and he voted for Obama. So at that panel of so-called "scholars," it was four Never-Trumpers against zero who were on Trump's side. This is the Democrat's idea of "fair and balanced," as we see all the time if we watch cnn or msnbc. However, Turley also said that he had opposed the Clinton impeachment, because impeachment would be too divisive -- which he said is what happened. Turley said that Nixon and Clinton had been guilty of crimes, with Clinton having clearly committed the crime of perjury, which is a felony for which people go to jail for all the time. Under Republican questioning, Turley said the same thing that I said, that there was absolutely no evidence that Trump had done anything wrong. He agreed that the so-called evidence against Trump was hearsay and speculation, nad that there was no basis for an impeachment -- or what he called a "shoddy impeachment" based on "anger." He particularly singled out the Democrats' accusing Trump of abuse of power for refusing to respond to Democrats' subpoenas and for going to court to challenge them. Turley said that Trump had a perfect right to go to court to challenge them. Nixon had been charged with abuse of power after he'd gone to court to protect his tapes, but then defied the court after he lost. That was the act that had resulted in the abuse of power charge. But Trump had a perfect right to challenge the subpoenas in court, and had not received any adverse ruling. Under those cirumstances, there would indeed be an abuse of power -- but it would be the Democrats committing abuse of power. So even though Turley is a left-wing liberal Democrat Never-Trumper, he still ran rings around the Democrats. The three other "scholars" looked like complete idiots. They went into inane constitution arguments about what constitutes grounds for impeachment. But under Republican questioning, they acknowledged the same thing that I've been saying and that Turley said -- Trump has not done anything wrong. The worst and most disgusting of the so-called "scholars" was Stanford law professor Pamela Karlan, who triumphantly attacked Trump via his 13-year-old son by saying, "The Constitution says there can be no titles of nobility, so while the president can name his son Barron, he can’t make him a baron." This is the kind of hysterical, angry hormonal woman who is dictating this impeachment -- all anger, all hysteria, no actual evidence. In fact, the entire Democratic party is being run by hysterical, angry hormonal women like Karlan, AOC, the Squad, and Hillary. And just so I won't be called a sexist, Adam Schiff is also an angry, hysterical hormonal man. The Democratic party is gender-neutral on hormonal, angry, hysterical leaders, but is not worth anything more. Ironically, I would not include Nancy Pelosi in the category. I even think it's possible that she's telling the truth when she says that she's praying for Trump. Unlike the angry, hysterical, hormonal people that she's taking orders from, she's old enough to know that the party is headed for an electoral disaster in November. Returning now to Jonathan Turley, he says: Quote: "My call for greater civility and dialogue may have That's the way the Democrats are these days -- all hormones, all anger, all rage, no evidence, and no substance of any kind except lies, fabricated charges, criminal activities, abuse of power, and, of course, threats and violence. ---- Sources: -- Turley: Democrats offering passion over proof in Trump impeachment https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/473171-turley-democrats-offering-passion-over-proof-in-trump-impeachment (TheHill, 6-Dec-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 12-06-2019 (12-06-2019, 04:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: HK has plenty of economic problems, but there are ALSO major political There are political problems no doubt. However, it is also the case that "a substantial part of the public do not support the demonstrators". In the recent elections, pro-Beijing parties won 42% of the popular vote. That's not a majority, but it is absolutely "a substantial part of the public". Indeed, the fact that there are substantial numbers on both sides of this question is part of why Hong Kong's problems are severe. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 12-07-2019 (12-06-2019, 02:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-06-2019, 09:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: FYI, the whistleblower's identity is protected by law. Fair enough; I got that wrong. ]The protections are still intended, though that's even less true for members of the security agencies. They can't sue for retaliation, because much of what they report can't be discussed in court: catch-22 on a huge scale. Warren Wrote:The rest of your post equally displays ignorance of actual facts. Meaning what exactly? Based on many years of internet argument, generic admonishments tend to be unreliable. Fell free to add something more substantive than finger waving. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-07-2019 ** 07-Dec-2019 World View: Hong Kong election results (12-06-2019, 09:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > There are political problems no doubt. However, it is also the The pro-democracy victory was certainly not unanimous, but everything I've read describes it as stunning. Here's a concise summary:
Hong Kong Election Results Over the weekend, Hong Kong held local elections which saw a landslide victory for pro-democracy candidates. More than half of the 452 local district council seats were flipped from pro-Beijing to pro-democracy candidates, giving pro-democratic forces control of 17 out of 18 district councils. The election also saw record high voter turnout with 4.1 million registered voters, a 71% increase since the last election cycle in 2015. These council members are eligible to be elected to six seats in Hong Kong’s legislature and will control 117 of 1,200 seats in the panel that selects the city’s leader. Current Chief Executive Carrie Lam, whose administration has been the target of ongoing pro-democracy protests, has promised to respect the results of the election. https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/189313450870/urbangeographies-hong-kong-election-results RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 12-07-2019 (12-06-2019, 04:49 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 06-Dec-2019 World View: Jonathan Turley on impeachment If a thief or arsonist is put on trial, then we do not reasonably expect that a trial of his peers will include thieves or arsonists. In any event, the presumption of innocence practically requires that those trying the accused have the same legal status as the accused during the trial -- innocent. Quote:However, Turley also said that he had opposed the Clinton impeachment, Nixon resigned, making the further process of impeachment moot. The impeachment of Bill Clinton was about deeds comparatively harmless. Bill Clinton's fornication may have been disgusting, but it is not in league with money laundering, bank fraud, blackmailing a foreign power, or who knows what else. Quote:Turley said that Nixon and Clinton had been guilty of crimes, with People go to prison for perjury when the perjury involves some other offense or personal statements (whether deliberate or in reckless disregard of the truth) that lead to a miscarriage of justice. Multitudes of people have made false or misleading statements on behalf of the President and have been convicted thereof. As the mandatory disclaimer says, "prior results are no guarantee of future results"... Quote:Under Republican questioning, Turley said the same thing that I said, No evidence, perhaps. There is written order by Adolf Hitler to initiate the Holocaust. Such is not necessary. Subordinates who do horrible deeds on behalf of the Big Boss demonstrate the culpability of the gangster. (The German Nazi Party is the most horrible crime syndicate in human history). Some speculation is appropriate. Nobody does perjury for there mere fun of it. Quote:He particularly singled out the Democrats' accusing Trump of abuse of The impeachment of Richard Nixon is about very different deeds. Trump associates have not been caught in a third-rate burglary, and they have not broken into the medically-confidential files of a dissident. Quote:So even though Turley is a left-wing liberal Democrat Never-Trumper, In my opinion he is setting up a strawman argument. Quote:The three other "scholars" looked like complete idiots. They went Trump may not have done the deed himself, but he can create the climate in which his subordinates act. His administrative chaos is not itself impeachable any more than Herbert Hoover's catastrophic handling of an economic meltdown was impeachable or military reverses in Korea under Harry Truman were impeachable. Impeachment is not the equivalent of a parliamentary vote of no confidence; it is rightly over serious misconduct. Professor Karlan established that there were criminal deeds that the Founding Fathers could have never imagined because the technologies of later time that made such crimes (for example crimes involving communication devices and motor vehicles) did not then exist. Quote:The worst and most disgusting of the so-called "scholars" was Stanford A triviality manifesting itself as a joke. Jerry Seinfeld could just as easily have made that joke. In any event, I can name a pet dog "Prince" or "Queen", and that does not make the dog nobility. I can name a cat "Tiger", but that does not make the cat a tiger even if the cat has stripes. Besides, "Barron" is the wrong spelling for the title of nobility. The idea to prohibit titles of nobility was to keep some public figure from granting those in return for doing some political work. Even the British "K" (as in "Knighthood") is too much here. So what? Our economic elites can live much like sultans if they have the means. Quote:This is the kind of hysterical, angry hormonal woman who is dictating ...as if testosterone were a fount of wisdom and humanity. I associate testosterone more with bar-room brawls than with commercial, intellectual, or creative achievement. Yes, women like Magda Goebbels, Chiang Ching (Mao's widow), Elena Ceausescu, Imelda Marcos, and Sajida (Mrs. Saddam) Hussein can be consummately vicious. That's before I start naming some black-widow types and real-life harpies such as the late and unlamented Aileen Wuornos. But note well: women can be as chilly rationalists as men. Fools beware! Quote:And just so I won't be called a sexist, Adam Schiff is also an angry, Well, some people who would have gassed Adam Schiff if they had a chance seem to have been members of the testosterone-rich, estrogen-poor cliques associated with the bad-boys clubs of Blackshirts and Brownshirts. Even if Stalin was in a cause (Bolshevism) that asserted the equality of women, Stalin's henchmen were all male. Beer Hall Putsch in Munich in 1923? All male. SA and SS taking over the streets in Germany? Clearly a (bad boy's) club. I would prefer that there were principled figures within the Republican Party as a default for those conservatives who insist upon a sane foreign policy. Well, there still is the Democratic Party, and Obama foreign policy is far closer to that of Reagan and the elder Bush than is the reckless, glory-seeking foreign policy of Donald Trump. History can take strange twists as a tale. Quote:Ironically, I would not include Nancy Pelosi in the category. I even She is a chilly rationalist, but she might be praying for Donald Trump on behalf of the United States as a whole. That is consistent with devout Catholicism. Electoral disaster in November? [/url] Quote:[url=https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3650]Quinnipiac, Nov. 21-25, 1355 RV (1-month change) Approve 40 (+2) Disapprove 54 (-4) Strongly approve 32 (+4) Strongly disapprove 50 (-3) Appears to be reversion to the mean after an outlier. Q polls since September: 9/25: 40/55 (strongly 29/48) 9/30: 41/53 (35/48) 10/8: 40/54 (29/47) 10/14: 41/54 (31/48) 10/23: 38/58 (28/53) 11/26: 40/54 (32/50) The margin of error for nationwide and statewide approval polls is 4%. Much lower than for Obama eight years ago. Demographic change (older and more politically-conservative people dying off or going senile while younger people replace them in the electorate) does not favor either Trump or the GOP. Say what you want about Obama, but he was closer to 50% and was a more adept politician than Trump is. Trump can win re-election with much less than a plurality of the vote should Democrats simply run up vote totals in California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Washington, (and possibly Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia)... but I see Republicans having a tough time of it. This time it involves a politically-crippled President. Quote:Returning now to Jonathan Turley, he says: Donald Trump has had every chance to bring civility and dialogue into the political arena. He has instead acted as if a majority of Americans lost all relevance in American politics after his Party got the trifecta of the Presidency, House, and Senate in 2016. Well, we Democrats are still here, and we can be the consequence of a catastrophic failure by a President with neither political acumen, moral compass, nor respect for objective truth. We Americans have a choice between fascism and freedom, and even if we must sacrifice prosperity and comfort to thwart fascism then such is a fair deal. Mercifully that is not the choice that we have. It will be up to Americans to choose politicians who have reason and a moral compass. Yes, we are in an economic pickle -- ironically one that many dreamed of, one in which we can have material objects quite dear a few years ago that are now very cheap. So it is no longer easy to profit off scarcity except in real estate or if one has cornered the market, as Big Pharma has done in medicine. The factory that gave intellectual mediocrities and sub-mediocrities a middle-class standard of living in places like Rochester, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis has folded and gone to the Third World... but even if it were to return to America it would pay starvation wages by American standards. The parts of America that got the manufacturing sector to move South due to low wages and weak unions is itself losing its factory jobs. Do you want my prediction of what household interiors will look like around 2030? They will look austere by current standards, mostly because people will have no taste for clutter. Utility will make many of the old status symbols irrelevant, and miniaturization and the Internet will make it easy for people to stream intellectual property cheaply and easily. The stuff that people paid dearly for in the 1980's is often trash not so much due to its breakdown as for its obsolescence or irrelevance. Mass-manufacturing has come to the end of the line as a means for making easy money for makers, sellers, and shareholders. But not only is Donald Trump morally lacking; he is clueless about the economic trends that he promises to revive. The latter is not impeachable. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-07-2019 ** 07-Dec-2019 World View: North Korea ICBM test Guest Wrote:> If NK launches a ICBM at the end of the year, what do you think Assuming that the North Korean ICBM launch is a test that lands in the sea and not on some city, then Trump would do as he's always done -- try to find a way using diplomacy to stop North Korea from making further tests. This might a combination of sanctions and meetings, working with the South Koreans. Keep in mind that China will not be happy with Kim for doing that, so Kim will be feeling pressure from both ends. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-07-2019 ** 07-Dec-2019 World View: China - North Korea vassal relationship Guest Wrote:> Shouldn't it be easy for China to control NK? They feed "Puppet" really isn't the right word. Neither is "ally." For centuries, Korea has had a vassal or tributary relationship with China. This means that Korea paid China a great deal of money, usually gold and slaves, in return for guarantees of defense from outsiders (i.e., Japan). Although China does not directly govern the vassal, China expects the vassal to do as it's told, and will not hesitate to punish a vassal that disobeys. North Korea today pays tribute to China not in the form of gold and slaves, but in the form of massive amounts of coal and "workers," both of which are also used to provide financial aid to North Korea. Relations between China and North Korea took a hostile turn in October 2006, when North Korea began testing nuclear weapons. North Korea did not do as it was told, and China punished North Korea by agreeing to United Nations sanctions targeting North Korea. However, China cannot punish North Korea too severely. If, as you suggest, China tries to starve North Korea, the result could be a massive refugee flow from North Korea, across the Yalu River, into northeast China, which would be an economic disaster for China. The reason that China does not want North Korea testing nuclear weapons is simply because such tests provide the US with an excuse to increase its military presence in the area. The Chinese were particularly infuriated in 2016 when North Korean tests provoked South Korea to reverse a previous policy and agree to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD), supplied by the United States military, to protect itself from North Korean missile attacks. The THAAD does not do a very good job at protecting South Korea from North Korean short-range missiles. But what the THAAD system does, through its sophisticated long-range "over the horizon" radar capabilities, is provide early warning to the American military of a missile attack from China. What China would like is for America to reduce its military presence in the region, which a North Korean missile test would certainly make less likely. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-07-2019 ** 07-Dec-2019 World View: North Korea missile test Within the past couple of hours, North Korea has announced a "very important test" at its long-range missile site: https://www.ktre.com/2019/12/08/north-korea-says-it-carried-out-very-important-test/ North Korea says it carried out ‘very important test’ North Korea threatening US with ‘Christmas gift’ December 7, 2019 at 8:11 PM CST - Updated December 7 at 8:50 PM SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea said Sunday it carried out a “very important test” at its long-range rocket launch site that will have a key effect on the country’s strategic position. The Korean Central News Agency said the test was conducted at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Saturday afternoon. It said that the result of the test was reported to the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party. The test results will have “an important effect on changing the strategic position of (North Korea) once again in the near future,” the agency reported. The report didn’t say what the test was about. But media reports say a new satellite image indicated North Korea may be preparing to resume testing engines used to power satellite launchers at the site. The reported test came as North Korea is stepping up pressure on the U.S. to make concessions in stalled nuclear talks. The U.N. bans North Korea from launching satellites because it is considered a test of long-range missile technology. After repeated failures, North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit for the first time in 2012 in a launch from the same site. North Korea had another successful satellite launch in 2016. At the United Nations, a statement released by North Korea’s U.N. ambassador, Kim Song, said that denuclearization had “already gone out of the negotiation table.” It said North Korea does not need to have lengthy talks with the United States as the end-of-year deadline set by its leader Kim Jong Un for substantial U.S. concessions in nuclear diplomacy looms. The statement accused the Trump administration of persistently pursuing a “hostile policy” toward the country “in its attempt to stifle it.” The ambassador also said Washington’s claims it is engaged in a “sustained and substantial dialogue” with Pyongyang solely for “its domestic political agenda.” “We do not need to have lengthy talks with the U.S. now and the denuclearization is already gone out of the negotiation table,” he said. Song’s statement was a response to Wednesday’s condemnation by six European countries of North Korea’s 13 ballistic missile launches since May. He accused the Europeans — France, Germany, Britain, Belgium, Poland and Estonia — of playing “the role of pet dog of the United States in recent months.” He called their statement “yet another serious provocation” against North Korea’s “righteous measures of strengthening national defense capabilities.” “We regard their behavior as nothing more than a despicable act of intentionally flattering the United States,” Song said. Copyright 2019 Associated Press. All rights reserved. 9-Dec-19 World View -- Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration - John J. Xenakis - 12-09-2019 *** 9-Dec-19 World View -- Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration **** Hong Kong November 24 election -- summary of results Hong Kongers filled the streets on Sunday with a massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration. According to organizers, the size of the protest was 800,000, although the police estimated 300,000. Unlike other recent protests, the crowd was filled with children and families, and there was almost no violence. In previous recent demonstrations, protesters have vandalized public buildings belonging to the government or private buildings belonging to mainland businesses. The also blocked streets and shut down the public transit system. This has had the effect, since the protests began six months ago, of bringing Hong Kong's economy to its knees, as the protests became more violent each week. However, Sunday's protests were like the initial peaceful demonstrations six months ago. Furthermore, activists had called for a citywide strike on Monday, but no such strike occurred. Pro-democracy demonstrators were apparently placated by the November 24 local council elections, where pro-democracy candidates won a stunning landslide victory, as summarized by the chart above. More than half of the 452 seats switched from pro-Beijing to pro-democracy, giving pro-democratic forces control of 17 out of 18 district councils. The election also saw record high voter turnout with 4.1 million registered voters, a 71% increase since the last election cycle in 2015. **** **** Protesters renew their 'five demands, not one less' chants **** While Sunday's protests were peaceful, it was undoubtedly infuriating to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in Beijing that many protesters were waving US flags and singing "Glory to Hong Kong." The original protests were triggered by a proposed "extradition bill" that would have allowed any Hong Kong citizens accused of a crime to be extradited to China with no hearing, where they would be at the complete mercy of the CCP, and it's record of torture and indefinite jailing for anything deemed to be political opposition to the CCP. Hong Kong's leader, Carrie Lam, took several months to agree to withdraw the extradition bill. Some people believe that if she had taken that step immediately, then the protests would have fizzled. But the long delays triggered increasingly strident demands, and the number of demands increased to five. The five demands are as follows: withdraw the extradition bill completely (this has been accomplished); do not classify past demonstrations as riots; drop all charges against those arrested in relation to the protests; set up an independent commission to investigate the use of force by the police; and call for fully democratic elections for the Legislative Council and the chief executive. The CCP will never agree to the last two of the demands. If the CCP and Carrie Lam were smart, they would find a way to agree to the second and third demands, as a way of reducing tensions. But as I've said many times, the CCP do one stupid thing after another, and you can be sure that whatever they do in Hong Kong will only make things worse. **** **** The CCP fights the democracy 'ideology' with the Patriotic Education Campaign **** Instead, according to news reports, Carrie Lam has found the solution: To increase patriotic education in schools, so that protesters will understand the advantages of Communism. The fact that CCP leaders even think that this kind of reeducation program could ever work explains how stupid CCP officials are, and why they consistently get everything wrong. This is such an incredibly stupid idea, that only the CCP would think of it. It's like trying to end race riots in the United States by teaching black children in schools how to be more white. CCP officials do not view "democracy" as a form of government. They view it as an ideology that is opposed to the communist ideology and can bring down the CCP, just as it brought down the Soviet Communist Party in 1991. The CCP view is that they must crush the democracy ideology, or the democracy ideology will crush them. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests and the subsequent massacres of thousands of college students by security police, the CCP saw that the use of the democracy "ideology" brought about the 1991 collapse of Soviet communism, and they realized that it might happen to them. In the 1990s, the CCP launched the Patriotic Education Campaign, a propaganda campaign designed to teach school students to reject the "democracy" ideology, and instead to adopt a highly vitriolic form of anti-Japan hatred as the ideology replacing the democracy ideology. As I explained in detail in my book, "War between China and Japan," this vitriolic and nationalistic campaign anti-Japan hate campaign, which has continued to today, is the crucible of the coming war between China and Japan. At the same time in the 1990s, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics began to take on a whole new and far darker and more sinister meaning. Any criticism of the CCP leadership could lead to torture, rape and jailing. Any serious adoption of any religious "ideology" (Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, Daoism) would be treated the same way. So today, the CCP sees the hated democracy "ideology" rapidly gaining ground in Hong Kong and Taiwan. However, they don't know what to do about it since, as stupid as the CCP leaders are, even they realize that a violent response in Hong Kong could trigger a widespread rebellion among Cantonese speakers in southern China, and a military invasion of Taiwan would trigger a war with the United States that they're not yet fully prepared for. So the peaceful demonstrations this weeked were a welcome respite from the violence, and most people hope that the peace will last a while. However, 2020 promises to be a time of renewed violence in Hong Kong, and the CCP will be running out of options. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, five demands, extradition bill, democracy ideology, Carrie Lam, Tiananmen Square massacre, Soviet Union collapse, Patriotic Education Campaign, Taiwan, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-09-2019 ** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Start of World War III Trevor Wrote:> Sometimes I wonder what's holding China back from attacking I think you're contemplating a Pearl Harbor style attack. I know you have my book on war between China and Japan, and in the chapters on theory of war, I describe how world wars start -- usually with some trivial military clash that escalates. The massive attacks come later. The attack on Pearl Harbor came four years after war had already begun between Japan and China. Right now, the populations of many countries have become extremely nationalistic and xenophobic. This is in contrast to the 1990s, when the WW II survivors were running things. At that time, a minor military clash would fizzle quickly, while today it would be much more likely to escalate. So I expect WW III to begin with some small confrontation that escalates, with nuclear weapons not used until months or years later. This could happen, for example, in Kashmir, the South China Sea, or the Mideast. The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor attack. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-09-2019 ** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Japan vs China in Central Asia Xeraphim1 Wrote:> I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central The problem with arguments like this is that they're too logical in a generational Crisis era. If Japan came to the aid of Japanese businesses in Central Asia, then they wouldn't do a risk-reward analysis. Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory, and hundreds of employees in the country. There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting between the Japanese and Chinese forces. There's a temporary truce, but both sides bring in more soldiers. A month later there's a new clash. Both sides send in more forces. The clashes spread to other Japanese businesses and Chinese businesses. The escalation continues. This is how these wars start. No one makes a conscious, reasoned decision to start a war. This is how WW I started, this is how WW II started. In recent times, this is how Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon started, although that fizzed out because Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era. This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 12-09-2019 Correction: there is no written order by Hitler calling for the Holocaust, although the level of coordination among all aspects of upper German government at the time leaves no doubt that the Holocaust could have been done only with the overt consent of the Fuehrer. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 12-10-2019 There is now a military build up in Japan. They are building aircraft carriers. I came across a reference to another project-a land based anti-ship missile (fwhich could be deployed to the island countries of east Asia). I came across a reference to a "hypersonic glide bomb". It has been known that the Japanese have the technical resources to readily construct a nuclear bomb. I suspect that they started that project awhile back when North Korea flew a missile over Japan. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-10-2019 ** 10-Dec-2019 World View: Japan military buildup (12-10-2019, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > There is now a military build up in Japan. They are building The Japanese don't need me or anyone else to tell them that the Chinese have spent the last 30 years teaching a vitriolic nationalistic anti-Japan Patriotic Education Campaign ideology campaign in their schools, and that the Chinese are preparing for war with Japan. There's still a strong "pacifist" constituency in Japan that wants to stay away from nuclear weapons, and only permit military engagements for defense when Japanese soil is attacked. Shinzo Abe has managed to whittle away at that by reinterpreting the "self-defense" to mean "collective self-defense," which means that Japan can take action when an ally (the US) is attacked. ---- Related Articles: ** 8-Apr-18 World View -- US will sell submarine technology to Taiwan, as Japan launches first marine brigade since end of WW II ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180408.htm#e180408 ** 13-Aug-17 World View -- Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense' ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170813.htm#e170813 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 12-10-2019 (12-10-2019, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: There is now a military build up in Japan. They are building aircraft carriers. I came across a reference to another project-a land based anti-ship missile (which could be deployed to the island countries of east Asia). I came across a reference to a "hypersonic glide bomb". About thirty years ago the Japanese government warned that it would secure nuclear weapons in the event that North Korea developed or stole them. At the time there was no protest from any of the then-current "nuclear club" (that then included the Soviet Union). I am guessing that the Japanese could have bought Soviet nukes or hired Soviet physicists and engineers to develop nukes suitable to Japanese military specifications. There was no protest even from China. Any North Korean nuclear missile that flies over Chinese, Russian, or Canadian territory to the US mainland is a death warrant for the North Korean regime. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-12-2019 ** 12-Dec-2019 World View: Boris Johnson / Tories win overwhelming victory - Brexit now certain The polls closed in Britain a few minutes ago, and exit polls indicate an overwhelming victory of Boris Johnson's Conservative (Tory) party. He will have 368 MPs, which is 86 above the minimum required for a majority. Assuming that the exit polls hold, Brexit in January is now all but certain -- Britain will come out of the European Union. Jeremy Corbyn's Labor party suffered a disastrous loss, with only 191 MPs. Corbyn is a super-obnoxious Socialist, and so this result may have implications for the US elections next year. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), which is restricted to Scotland, will have 55 MPs, which is a lot for the SNP. This will give the nationalists in Scotland a reason to push for a new referendum for Scotland to secede from the UK. However, this will be complicated by the fact that even if Scotland secedes from the UK, there's no guarantee that Scotland will be able to join the EU. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 12-13-2019 (12-12-2019, 05:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: He will have 368 MPs, which is 86 above the minimum required for a Minor correction: it would have been an 86 seat majority, but that's only 43 more than required. 43 more than required for him also subtracts 43 from his opponents, which is what makes it an 86 seat majority. The rest of the post is undoubtedly correct, though Corbyn was more outspoken about being a socialist than Warren was. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 12-13-2019 (12-13-2019, 01:58 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-12-2019, 05:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: He will have 368 MPs, which is 86 above the minimum required for a Corbyn also seemed unable to be pro-anything, and topped it off with a reputation for being anti-Semitic. He couldn't even state his position on Brexit. In short, Labour got the drubbing they deserved, but don't assume it means all that much here in 2020. On he other hand, if it is truly a harbinger, then we know where the 4t is going this time. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-13-2019 ** 13-Dec-2019 World View: Where is 4t going? (12-13-2019, 12:58 PM)David Horn Wrote: > On he other hand, if it is truly a harbinger, then we know where We do? Where is the 4t going this time? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 12-13-2019 (12-13-2019, 12:58 PM)David Horn Wrote: Corbyn also seemed unable to be pro-anything, and topped it off with a reputation for being anti-Semitic. He couldn't even state his position on Brexit. In short, Labour got the drubbing they deserved, but don't assume it means all that much here in 2020. On he other hand, if it is truly a harbinger, then we know where the 4t is going this time. Corbyn was very pro socialism. He didn't have a position on Brexit because he didn't care; what was important to him was that the UK be socialist, Brexit or no Brexit. |