Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-19-2019 ** 19-Dec-2019 World View: Taiwan war The BBC world service had a segment on the coming Taiwan elections in the shadow of China. Major takeaways:
21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from - John J. Xenakis - 12-20-2019 *** 21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey **** Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ® and Fayez al-Sarraj (L), the head of Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), meeting in Istanbul on November 27 (Anadolu) The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya escalated sharply on Friday as warplanes from the renegade government bombed targets in the capital city Tripoli, as well as Misurata and Sirte. The internationally recognized government is the Government of National Accord (GNA), with headquarters in the capital city Tripoli, in western Libya, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. On Thursday, the GNA and Turkey announced that Turkey would be supplying the GNA with weapons, military advisors and, if requested, soldiers. The renegade government is headed by General Khalifa Haftar, who defected from the internationally recognized government in 2014 and formed a government in eastern Libya in Tobruk, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA). The bombing of Tripoli and the two other cities began after the announcement that Turkey would be supplying military aid to the GNA. Haftar also issued an ultimatum that all GNA militias must pull out of the three cities by Sunday evening. Haftar announced on Friday that his forces were making "pre-emptive airstrikes against three separate locations near Tripoli that were expected landing points for Turkish military forces." GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj asked Turkey, the US and several European countries to come to their aid. Russia's president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday said that he was "in contact with all regional parties to try and end the conflict in Libya." It's been known for several months that the Wagner Group, Vladimir Putin's "private" militia, has been operating in Libya in support of Haftar. Putin has used Wagner in Syria, Ukraine and Central AFrican Republic when he wants to intervene militarily, but maintain deniability by not using the Russian army directly. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic" ) On Friday, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the "possible deployment of Turkish troops in Libya is a source of worry" because it "could trigger a reaction from neighboring states." It's unclear what will happen when Haftar's deadline passes on Sunday evening, but there is certainly a possibility of a much larger conflict. **** **** Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war **** The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya is about to be escalated as the Government of National Accord (GNA) in western Libya in Tripoli has accepted Turkey's offer of military help. The GNA, headed by prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is the government officially recognized by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, and is militarily supported by Qatar, Italy, the Muslim Brotherhood, and now Turkey. Libya's civil war began in 2011 with the "Arab Spring" that was triggered by the death of a food vendor next door in Tunisia. There were widespread riots in multiple Arab countries in Spring 2011, including Libya, where there were hundreds of thousands of Libyan refugees pouring into neighboring countries, and thousands more crossing the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. With a growing bloodbath in Libya, the leader Muammar Gaddafi threatened to kill all protesters, and crush any enemy, with mass slaughter. With Libya's civil war destabilizing the entire region, the Arab League unanimously requested the UN, the US and Europe to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, to keep Gaddafi from bombing and killing civilians. Nato implemented a no-fly zone, but the conflict in Libya continued until Gaddafi was killed. In the aftermath, Libya became increasingly lawless and ungovernable. Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one another for money and power. The United Nations attempted several times to set up a stable government. The latest attempt is the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is currently the government internationally recognized by the UN, US, the EU, and particularly by Libya's former colonial power, Italy. It is also an an Islamist government supported by Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood. However, in May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the government and joined a group of anti-government militias who claimed to be fighting Islamist terrorists. He was supported by Egypt's General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt in 2013. Haftar was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the 1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen living in Virginia and became a CIA asset. He returned to Libya after the 2011 war. Haftar set up his own capital city in Tobruk in eastern Libya, where he formed the Libyan National Army (LNA), and backed by many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west. Starting in 2014, Haftar's forces moved west with the intention of defeating the GNA government in Tripoli and taking control. Haftar was supplied with weapons and backed by warplanes from Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since then, Qatar and UAE have been supplying weapons to the opposing sides, the Islamists and secularists, respectively, in Libya, making it a proxy war. However, the war has continued with neither side being successful in landing a decisive blow. But now Turkey is joining Qatar in supplying weapons and military advisors to the internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. So far, this is only advisors and weapons, but not troops. We'll have to see if this results in a victory by either side, or if there's a major escalation. **** **** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus **** Yes, Dear Reader, there's more. The military agreement under which Turkey is now providing weapons, advisors and possibly soldiers to Libya was signed on November 28. On the same day, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on "Delimitation Of The Maritime Jurisdiction Areas In The Mediterranean." In this second agreement, Libya and Turkey agreed to the boundaries of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of each country within the Mediterranean Sea. The result is that they've created a 200-mile wide strip between their countries that they claim they own as their shared EEZ, and which are rich in minerals, oil and gas. However, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus are pointing out that their own EEZ regions supercede and conflict with the claimed Libya-Turkey EEZ regions. In particular, the Libya-Turkey EEZ regions interfere with a gigantic gas field off Egypt's coast, and with a planned pipeline between Israel and Cyprus. However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that on the basis of his country’s occupation since 1974 of Northern Cyprus, he might lay claim to all waters around Cyprus. There have already been verbal threats of war between Greece and Turkey over oil and gas exploration around Cyprus, and those threats may increase as a result of this new agreement between Libya and Turkey. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte, Fayez al-Sarraj, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya, Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group, Egypt, General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Israel, Cyprus, continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, EEZ Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-21-2019 *** 22-Dec-19 World View -- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Tens of thousands flee to Turkish border as Syria-Russia massacre escalates in Idlib **** Displaced Syrians in Idlib carry their belongings and try to escape al-Assad's violence by fleeing to the Syria-Turkey border (AFP) The assault by the Syrian regime and Russia is continuing to escalate, as I described several days ago. ( "19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border" ) Massive bombardments by Syrian and Russian warplanes have continued. The United Nations has condemned "a well-documented pattern of attacks against civilians and infrastructure." This pattern involves the use of powerful barrel bombs particularly targeting masses of women and children, including attacks on schools, marketplaces, maternity hospitals and other hospitals, and residential neighborhoods. According to the UN, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing for their lives by traveling north towards the border with Turkey. There are 3.5 million civilians in Idlib, and as the Syrian - Russian assault continues to escalate, it's expected that several hundred thousand will travel to the Turkey border, where they either be slaughtered like fish in a barrel, or else they'll force themselves into Turkey. There's been another change in the last couple of weeks, with the introduction of Syrian regime ground forces. They've been concentrating on highway M5 in order to reopen the link between Damascus and Aleppo. This has gone on while the airstrikes have continued inside Idlib. Presumably, once the M5 highway has been fully reopened, the ground troops will move into the other civilian villages. For two years, Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been promising a full-scale assault to take control of Idlib, even if it means killing the 3.5 million Arab Sunni civilians, whom al-Assad considers to be loathsome cockroaches to be exterminated. Unless something changes, we're going to see a major new humanitarian crisis. We're also going to see hundreds of thousands of civilians crowd across the border into Turkey, and from there many thousands will continue into Europe, creating a new European refugee crisis. **** **** Russia and China veto humanitarian aid for Idlib **** In a surprise on Friday in the UN Security Council, Russia and China vetoed the resolution to continue the humanitarian aid program for Idlib, and instead offered an alternative resolution that severely restricted the amount of humanitarian aid. The reason given is that program is no longer necessary, since Bashar al-Assad now controls enough of Syria that he can provide the humanitarian aid, instead of the United Nations. This is typical of the laughable crap that we're always hearing from Russian officials and Russian trolls. The current aid resolution expires on January 10. Until then, the United States and other diplomats are going to be negotiating with the Russians to try to get the existing program extended. This veto makes it pretty clear that the Syrian regime and Russia are now going all out to take control of Idlib, no matter how many millions of civilians are killed. Ironically, it won't end the war, since there are still many pockets of anti-Assad Sunni Arabs across Syria. Furthermore Turkey is in control of some of Syria's territory, and the Kurds are in control of a large part of eastern Syria, as can be seen in the map in my last article on Idlib. It's pretty clear that al-Assad is going to finish up his massive genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Arab political opponents. Does anyone care except people who are paid to care? Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites, Russia, Vladimir Putin, China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-22-2019 ** 21-Dec-2019 World View: The Generals keep getting paid shoshin Wrote:> John, your "Afghan Papers" was full of your usual stunning Yeah, you're absolutely right. War is highly profitable. Genocide is particularly profitable. We see that today where Bashar al-Assad is benefiting handsomely by exterminating his Sunni Arab political enemies. Not only him, but a whole army of United Nations bureaucrats are getting paid to do studies, hold meetings, and issue statements declaring outrage, proclaiming, "This is NOT acceptable!!" But it's not just war that makes money. Take rape. Feminists love as much rape as possible, because they make money from it. However, rape is only a crime when the rapist is Republican. If you're a girl or woman who's being violently raped by a Democrat like Bill Clinton, then while he's banging around inside you, you might as well just lie back and grit your teeth. Hell, you might as well even try to enjoy it. But whatever you do, don't report it to anyone because then Hillary Clinton or some Hillary clone will make sure that you're beaten and raped again, and that your life will be destroyed. That's the meaning of the feminist phrase, "The personal is political." It means that rape itself is not the crime, and the girl is not really the victim. The actual crime would be for the girl to publicly accuse the Democrat of rape. That's an actual crime, and the punishment for the perpetrator (the girl) will be harsh, severe and possibly violent. But that's only part of the story. The other part is that rape by a Republican is where the feminists make all the money. However, once again, it's not the rape itself that's the moneymaker. It's the rape accusation against the Republican that makes money. Whether there was an actual rape is irrelevant. It's the accusation that makes the money. And what makes the most money is a false accusation of rape, since then the man has to spend a lot of money on lawyers, and then the feminists get a lot more money to fund the false accusations. Similarly, if a husband beats up his wife, then feminists pop open the champagne bottles, because they can turn that into a whole slew of funding for a flock of babbling divorce social workers. However, if a wife scratches her husband's eyes out, then feminists will still make lots of money by saying that the wife is the real victim. Then there's climate change. Liberals love climate change, because it gives the activists an opportunity to burn lots of jet fuel to attend posh climate conferences. It also allows liberals to demand funding for their favor political cronies and favorite warlords, who will use the money to buy weapons. There are many, many, many similar examples. So Generals want more war, feminists want more rape, and liberals want more climate change disasters. That's the way the world works. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-22-2019 ** 22-Dec-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters show solidarity with Uighurs in concentration camps
After seven months, this week's pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong took a different twist. About 1,000 people gathered peacefully, waving Uighur flags and posters. One protester shouted through a loutspeaker: Quote: "We shall not forget those who share a common goal A mixed crowd of young and elderly people, dressed in black and wearing masks to shield their identities, held up signs reading “Free Uyghur, Free Hong Kong” and “Fake ‘autonomy’ in China results in genocide”. It's believed that over a million Muslim Uighurs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang) have been arrested, confined to concentation camps, and either killed or forced into slave labor. If the Hong Kong protesters continue to identify with the Uighurs, that will present even more severe problems for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Riot police broke up the peaceful demonstration with pepper spray, and the protesters responded by hurling glass bottles and rocks at them. ---- Sources: -- Hong Kong protesters rally against China's Uighur crackdown https://www.dw.com/en/hong-kong-protesters-rally-against-chinas-uighur-crackdown/a-51771541 (Deutsche Welle, 22-Dec-2019) -- Clashes as police try to clear Hong Kong protesters after Uighur support rally https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/clashes-as-police-try-to-clear-hong-kong-protesters-after-uighur-support-rally-idUSKBN1YQ076 (Reuters, 22-Dec-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-22-2019 ** 22-Dec-2019 World View: Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees
As I wrote yesterday, the massacre by Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, is trying to complete the job begun by his father Hafez al-Assad and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab Sunnis in Idlib province. The warplane attacks by Syria and Russia have escalated sharply in the past couple of weeks, and Syria's ground forces are now in the fight. In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that 80,000 refugees are headed for Syria's border, and that this number is expected to increase substantially. Turkey already hosts 3.7 million Syrian refugees. Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave" from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will be felt by all European countries." In his speech, Erdogan said that Turkey was the most generous country in the world in providing humanitarian aid and hosting the oppressed. He pointed out that rich countries had promised financial aid in the past, but have not met these commitments. The following excerpts are from a machine translation of his speech, which is in Turkish: Quote: "We are looking at the action rather than the ---- Sources: -- Erdogan says Turkey cannot handle new migrant wave from Syria, warns Europe https://www.france24.com/en/20191222-erdogan-says-turkey-cannot-handle-new-migrant-wave-from-syria-warns-europe (France24/Reuters, 22-Dec-2019) -- Syria war: Turkey can't handle new 'refugee wave', says Erdogan https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50886120 (BBC, 22-Dec-2019) -- President Erdogan: More than 80 thousand of our Idlib brothers started to migrate towards the border of our country https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-80-binin-uzerinde-idlibli-kardesimiz-ulkemiz-sinirina-dogru-goce-basladi/1681124 https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aa.com.tr%2Ftr%2Fturkiye%2Fcumhurbaskani-erdogan-80-binin-uzerinde-idlibli-kardesimiz-ulkemiz-sinirina-dogru-goce-basladi%2F1681124 (Andadolu, Ankara, 22-Dec-2019) Related Article: ** 22-Dec-19 World View -- Syria, Russia veto humanitarian aid to Idlib as civilian massacre escalates ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191222.htm#e191222 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-24-2019 ** 24-Dec-2019 World View: Gen-X and Boeing Higgenbotham Wrote:> Nowadays, large profit seeking enterprises in the US get their We live in a world where stupidity is glorified. The de facto leader of the Democratic party is a young girl whose initials are AOC. AOC is one of the stupidest people on the scene today. It's amazing how every day she says something incredibly ignorant about economics or the world. It's like every day she has to struggle to find a way to be stupider than the day before, to prove to her acolytes that she's still stupid enough to be worshipped, and not intelligent enough to be hated. We know that SAT scores have been falling sharply for decades, and that colleges no longer teach anything but women's studies and sociology, and we can see the results in the stupidity of AOC. The only people who are stupider than she is are the people who follow her. The same kind of thing is true in other countries, and is probably true in China as well. It's no wonder that the world is headed for World War III, in view of the stupidity of AOC and the Democrats who worship at her feet. Boomers live in a world where they are loathed and are useless except to be humiliated and defrauded by these people. And if the Boomers tolerate that, they're still headed for a world of World War III. For any Boomer thinking of exiting, I recommend the Peaceful Pill Handbook by Philip Nitschke <https://www.peacefulpillhandbook.com/> . There's nothing to be gained by sticking around. Fortunately for all of us, Trump is sticking around and preparing the country for the war with China, despite AOC/Pelosi's crapfest. Applying this reality to Boeing, I think it's possible that David Calhoun will do better than Muilenberg. The way the generational cycle works during the Crisis era is that the leaders are young, stupid people like AOC, but every time there's a crisis, they learn from it. It's like they're starting from a blank slate about how the world works all over again. By the time the generational crisis war ends, they've learned anew how the world works, and they've magically turned into the generation in the same template as the Silents that AOC and her acolytes loathe. So that applies to Boeing. It's no longer just a few stupid Gen-Xers making decisions at Boeing. Today, they have to answer to the FAA and to regulators around the world. This is a completely different situation for Boeing, and I expect the new management to do better. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-24-2019 An ironic Merry Christmas to all! 26-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the ea - John J. Xenakis - 12-25-2019 *** 26-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey's Erdogan threatens Greece and Europe with Idlib refugees **** Over 120,000 civilians are fleeing their homes in Idlib and heading for Turkey's border (Sky News) As Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia, continues to escalate his assault on the 3.5 million Arab Sunnis in Idlib province, including about 1.5 million children. Among those 3.5 million people, there are some 70,000 anti-Assad rebels. According to some reports, Assad's strategy is to attack markets, residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals in order to kill as many women and children as possible, and force the rest to flee towards the border with Turkey. According to reports, some 120,000 civilians have abandoned their homes and are fleeing north towards the border with Turkey. Then, according to these reports, al-Assad's ground forces can move into the villages that have been deserted by these civilians and supposedly the only ones left are that men who are fighting against al-Assad. In a speech on Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey is already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees. For the past three years, Turkey has had an agreement Greece and the European Union to block Syrian refugees from leaving Turkey. Turkey has mostly kept to that agreement, while the EU has reneged on most of the commitments it made. Erdogan on Sunday said that Turkey cannot handle a "new refugee wave" from Syria, and that the new influx will be felt by Greece and "will be felt by all European countries." Most Syrian refugees want to go to Europe anyway, and the implementation is that Turkey will no longer try to prevent them from doing so. In the past, Russia and Turkey have agreed that Idlib will be a de-escalation zone, or a ceasefire zone. All those agreements about ceasefire zones were never more than covers for further further assaults by Syria and Russia. But now Assad has reached the Idlib deescalation zone, so Russia's support for Assad makes Russia Turkey's enemy. Russian officials are claiming that they are working for peace in Idlib, but Russian officials never tell the truth except by accident. So far, it's impossible to determine what Russia's plans are in Idlib, whether to help Assad or to stop al-Assad. We'll probably know within the next few months, but al-Assad has always made it clear that he plans to take control of Idlib and exterminate the 3.5 million Arab Sunni civilians living there, so I would consider it unlikely that Russia will stop al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing. **** **** Libya's Tripoli government asks Turkey for ground troops **** As we reported last week, the war in Libya is also escalating. ( "21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey" ) Turkey had promised weapons and military advisers to the government, but during the last few days, the Tripoli government has made a request for ground troops from Turkey. There are two governments in Libya. The internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and the renegade Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar. Haftar has been trying for three years lead his Libyan National Army to defeat the Tripoli government, with little success. During the last few months, Russia's president Vladimir Putin has made his private army, the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, available to Haftar, and now they are leading the military effort to defeat Tripoli. And so, as in Idlib, Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the battle, and, as in Idlib, Russian officials are claiming that they're negotiating for peace. As I wrote in 2015, Turkey and Russia have been bitter enemies for centuries, and have fought numerous generational crisis wars. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars" .) Any alliance made between the two countries today could only be a temporary marriage of convenience. Turkey is so thoroughly isolated in the region that it needs support from Russia. Russia is totally duplicitous and appears to be playing all sides to see which one wins. **** **** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens eastern Mediterranean peace **** As we reported in last week's article, there was a second agreement signed by Libya and Turkey on the same day as the military agreement: A maritime agreement that claims a shared exclusive economic zone (EEZ) consisting of a 200-mile wide strip that splits much of the eastern Mediterrean between them. The claimed region is rich in oil and gas, and makes the Libya-Turkey agreements much more important than Turkey merely helping out a friend in Libya. If the maritime agreement could be upheld, it would mean a great deal of energy money pouring into Turkey's coffers. The agreement is almost certainly illegal, as the claimed region overlaps regions historically belonging to Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Egypt and Israel. Furthermore, it would block a planned Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum agreement signed by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece earlier this year, along with a planned pipeline that would carry natural gas to Greece and Italy. **** **** Turkey, Russia and Greece face off in Syria, Libya and the eastern Mediterranean **** Putting all this together, you have:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are additional tensions that keep surging in this generational Crisis era, adding to numerous tensions elsewhere, including Hong Kong, the South China Sea, Kashmir, India, Pakistan, and South America. In the 1990s, when the Silent generation was running the world, a small clash would almost always be quickly settled. Today, with the Gen-Xers running the world, a small clash could escalate into a larger war. With all these tensions and clashes occurring around the world, at some point one of them will escalate. Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel, Russia, Vladimir Putin, China, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte, Fayez al-Sarraj, General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya, Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group PMC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-26-2019 ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Holocaust - Never again Trevor Wrote:> I expect future generations will laugh at our stupidity: "Oh, my That's not cynical at all. That's reality. There are several Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful, because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the cheerleaders, the propagandists, and the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust, and will protect it. It's only after it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can stand up and say, "Never Again!" RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-26-2019 ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Semi-free countries Guest Wrote:> Merry Christmas, John. Thank you for your integrity and insightful Thanks for the compliment. There are a number of prominent Asian countries -- China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea, and many, many others. Without revealing what country you're from, how would you rate these countries as being free, semi-free, or not-free? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-26-2019 ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: The Art of the Deal Guest Wrote:> Do you think Trump is pro-Putin? If so, is it solely because of That question doesn't even make sense. What does pro-Putin even mean? What does anti-Putin mean? If you're anti-Putin, does that mean you have to declare war on Russia? Does it mean you have to cut diplomatic relations? Trump is not pro-Putin, is not pro-Xi, is not pro-Kim. He has a relationship with all these dictators in order to get the best deal for the United States. The "Art of the Deal" requires that, in order to get the best deal for yourself, you have to respect the position and needs of the person you're negotiating with, and that's what Trump is doing. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 12-26-2019 (12-26-2019, 04:55 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Holocaust - Never again The Germans knew that Hitler was treating the Jews disgracefully -- but not that disgracefully. Hitler made sure not to kill Jews in Germany or in countries in which Germans were likely to be tourists. To that end the Nazis did mass killings of Jews in places of mass Jewish population in what had been the Soviet Union under its borders of January 1, 1941, only to start deporting Jews to murder camps in Poland. The Nazis made the Holocaust one of the tightest-controlled of state secrets. Josef Goebbels, who certainly knew what was going on, corrected himself in one speech as he started to use the German word Vernichtung (annihilation) of what was to happen to the Jews... replacing it with the less ominous, if not by much, Ausrottung (uprooting). Germans were led to believe that Hitler was 'only' removing the Jews from Germany to 'the East', which included places that before the War had huge numbers of Jews. So why didn't the Allies complain? Because such would have fit Nazi propaganda -- that the war was on behalf of the Jews, who according to Nazi propaganda, conspired against the German State and people. Hitler even claimed that FDR and Churchill were Jews. Besides, Hitler would have used the Jews as hostages to save his vile hide in the event of military reverses. (OK, Hitler never offered to stop the Holocaust to get favorable terms). Winning the war, the Allies thought, would solve all problems, including Nazi atrocities. From an early time Churchill was contemplating severe punishment of the Nazis for their many crimes, starting with the slaughter of the Polish economic, political, cultural, and technical elites -- before Hitler even started killing Jews en masse. Hitler had to annihilate the Polish elite to make Poland a safe haven for the Holocaust. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-26-2019 ** 26-Dec-2019 World View: Never Again! (12-26-2019, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The Germans knew that Hitler was treating the Jews disgracefully Thanks for that analysis, which details why the Nazi Holocaust was not stopped. It's consistent with the point I was making that nobody cares about a genocide while it's in progress, until it's over, and then the politicians say, "Never Again!" Today the excuses are, "someone killed someone, so they're all terrorists," or "there is no evidence whatsoever of chemical weapons," or "the United States did it to embarass us," or "they burned down their own villages and blamed it on us," or "it's an internal matter." In the end, to war criminals, people are no different from cockroaches to be exterminated. 29-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya - John J. Xenakis - 12-28-2019 *** 29-Dec-19 World View -- Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey to send Syrian anti-Assad rebels to Libya **** Fighters in Hafter's Libyan National Army (LNA) on December 18 (AFP) As we've been reporting several times this month, the war in Libya has been heating up. There are two governments in Libya. The western government of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, has been moving east and attacking the internationally recognized Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The war is increasingly a proxy war. Haftar's LNA is backed with weapons and warplanes by Egypt and United Arab Emirates, while Qatar has been supplying weapons to the GNA. In recent months, Haftar's LNA is being helped by troops from the Wagner PMC Mercenary Group, the private army of Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Turkey has joined Qatar on the side of the Tripoli-based GNA, and last month Turkey and Libya signed an agreement whereby Turkey would supply weapons to the GNA and also, if asked, would supply ground troops to the GNA. Well, GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj has formally asked Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to send ground troops. Erdogan really doesn't want to send Turkish troops to Libya, since that would be unpopular among the Turkish people, but he promised so he has to. So he's apparently found the ideal solution. Erdogan has been working with anti-Assad rebel groups in northern Syria, so he's going to ask some of those rebels to go to Tripoli to fight against Haftar in the name of Turkey. Apparently the incentive is that each of the rebels will receive $300 upon signing the contract in Syria, and will receive $2,000 per month in Libya. So that should make it truly a proxy war. It won't be Libyans fighting Libyans. It will be Syria's anti-Assad rebels, provided by Erdogan, fighting against Russia's Wagner mercenaries, provided by Putin. Whether either side in this proxy battle is competent enough to win remains to be seen. However, the potential escalation in fighting is raising concerns. In Italy, which was Libya's colonial power once upon a time, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is strongly opposing Turkey's intervention and is calling for an internationally supervised no-fly zone in Libya. "A no-fly zone too can be an instrument for achieving a goal: the immediate cessation of hostilities." I guess that's true, but let's recall that in 2011 the Libyan war took hold when the Arab League called for an internationally supervised no-fly zone in Libya. History may repeat itself. **** **** The genocide and ethnic cleansing continue in Idlib, Syria **** The massacre of innocent women and children by Syrian and Russian warplanes, including some reports of chemical weapons, along with Syrian ground troops, is continuing in full force. In just the last month, the number of people who have been forced from their home has reached a quarter million. Most are headed north, wanting to cross the border into Turkey, and from there travel into Europe. So far, Turkey has kept the border closed. But the assault on Idlib, with 3.5 million people, shows no sign of slowing, and Turkey may not be able to keep the border closed when hundreds of thousands more try to push through. Here's a statement by Raed Al Saleh, head of the White Helmet humanitarian group: <QUOTE>"It seems that 2019 was the year the international community and the UN completely abandoned Syria and politicians have even run out of words of condemnation. My biggest fear as the year comes to a close is for the attacks to intensify further, causing new waves of displacement because there is nowhere left for people to run to. Every olive tree has become a tent and every camp has exceeded its capacity ten times over. I still cannot understand how the world’s most powerful nations can meet those horrors with silence and inaction."<END QUOTE> That statement is actually funny. He's complaining because almost nobody cares about the Holocaust going on in Idlib. Actually, there are three Holocausts going on today that almost nobody cares about, all targeting Sunni Muslims: China's genocide, ethnic cleansing, and enslavement of over a million Sunni Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang Province), Buddhist Myanmar's (Burma's) genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslim ethnic Rohingyas, and Bashar al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Sunni Muslim political opponents in Syria. There are several Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful, because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the cheerleaders, the propagandists, and the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust, the genocide, the slaughter, and will protect it. It's only after it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can stand up and say, "Never Again!" So Raed Al Saleh should stop whining just accept the fact that there's going to be a bloody massacre of almost unimaginable proportions in Idlib. After it ends, he can go on TV and join the chorus saying "Never Again!" Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin, China, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte, Fayez al-Sarraj, General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya, Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group PMC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke intern - John J. Xenakis - 12-30-2019 *** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US forces strike facilities of Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria **** Plumes of smoke rise after an explosion at a military base in Iraq on August 12 (AP) On Sunday, US forces conducted airstrikes against five facilities in Iraq and Syria belonging to Kataib Hezbollah (Hezbollah Brigades). The locations included weapon storage facilities and command and control locations. Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah (KH) is a different militant Shia organization than the Lebanon Hezbollah organization that is usually in the news, but both organizations are puppets of Iran and the militant Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The airstrikes were in retaliation for numerous KH artillery strikes on American military bases in Iraq, particularly for a strike on Friday on a US base in Anbar province in western Iraq, killing a US Army contractor, wounding four US armed forces members, and two members of the Iraqi Security Forces. Over 25 KH members were killed. When ISIS was defeated in Iraq two years ago, the US pulled out most of its troops, leaving behind 5,000 troops at the invitation of Iraq's government to aid and support the Iraqi security forces as they search for and clear ISIS eleeper cells hiding in the deserts. One of these ISIS clearing missions coincided with the US airstrikes against KH. During the war to eject ISIS from Iraq, US forces fought alongside the Iran-backed Shia Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), since the mostly Sunni Iraqi army soldiers did not want to fight against the Sunni ISIS fighters. After ISIS was defeated, some PMF fighters became Kataib Hezbollah (KH), and have been using violence to force the US to leave Iraq. **** **** Kataib Hezbollah justifications and responses **** Kataib Hezbollah on Monday sought to justify the artillery strikes killing Americans. According to KH spokesman Mohammed Mohieh on Monday: <QUOTE>"We are warning the United States as we've warned before -- that their illegal presence means that they're standing against the Iraqi people, and the Iraqi people have the right to confront them with all types of resistance."<END QUOTE> US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: <QUOTE>"What we did was take a decisive response that makes clear what President Trump has said for months and months and months was that we will not stand for the Islamic Republic of Iran to take actions that put American men and women in jeopardy."<END QUOTE> According to reports, the US warned the Iraq government half an hour before the planned airstrikes, and they said, DON'T DO IT, but the US did it anyway. The Iraqi army is supposed to protect American bases from attacks by KH and the PMF. There have been numerous attacks in the past, although Friday's was the first where an American was killed. After each attack, Iraq promised to investigate the attack and determine what happened. According to analysts, the PMF are deeply embedded in Iraq's legislature and government, and so the "investigations" have gone nowhere although everyone knows which organization is responsible for the attacks. After the airstrikes, Iraq's prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi issued a statement saying that the American attack on the Iraqi armed forces as an unacceptable vicious assault that will have dangerous consequences. His reference to the "Iraqi armed forces" reflects the fact that many of the PMF units have been incorporated into Iraq's army after defeating ISIS, and therefore the airstrikes targeted Iraq's army on Iraq's soil. Not surprisingly, there have been the usual chorus of outrage against the United States for the airstrikes from the usual stellar peace-loving world community members as Iran, Russia and China. **** **** Consequences of the airstrikes on anti-Iran anti-government protests **** Pundits have been speculating on the consequences and outcome of the American airstrikes. Some pundits have speculated that this is just the first step in a planned American action against Iran, possibly a war. Others have speculated that the IRGC and KH will now have to retaliate against the Americans and that, once again, this will lead to war. Neither of those speculations seems particularly likely. However, it's possible that the airstrikes will further destabilize Iraq's government. Iraq has been facing massive anti-Iran and anti-government protests, as I've described several times. (See "29-Nov-19 World View -- Spiraling bloodbath in Iraq, as anti-Iran and anti-government riots spread" ) Most of protesters have been objecting to Iran's influence in Iraq, blaming Iran for Iraq's impoverishment. Most of the protesters are from the predominantly Shia southern Iraq, and are young kids who are well aware that their grandfathers and grandmothers were attacked, raped, tortured, and killed by Iranians during the Iran/Iraq war. **** **** Iran may have purposely baited the Americans to make the airstrikes **** A couple of analysts have suggested that the KH attacks on American bases were ordered by Iran purposely to bait the Americans into conducting exactly the kind of airstrike that occurred, so that Iran could unify the Iraqis against the Americans. This would be typical of Iran's playbook. During the 1979 Iran civil war, the clerics were able to unite the Iranians by taking over the American embassy in Tehran and keeping the Americans hostage (the Iranian Hostage Crisis). Since then, as Iran's younger generations have grown increasingly pro-Western and pro-American, Iran's hardline geezer leadership has been desperately using one trick after another to achieve the same result. What they've discovered, as I've described many times, is that what works in a generational Crisis era fails in a generational Awakening or Unraveling era, and today, most Iranians today see through these desperate attempts by Iran's leadership. Although the press is describing the KH attacks and retaliatory airstrikes as a conflict between the US versus Iraq and Iran, it's really a conflict between Iraq versus Iran, replaying some of the bitter, violent clashes of the 1980s Iran/Iraq generational crisis war. The United States has played the role of Policeman of the World since the Truman Doctrine was announced in 1947. Whenever the US plays policeman, it has always received blame for not doing it right, or for doing it for the oil. Today, we're hearing pundits blame the problems in the Mideast on the US because the US has been withdrawing from the Mideast. Presumably these people believe that we should somehow intervene between Iraq and Iran in the current mess. I'm sure that would go well. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Kataib Hezbollah, KH, Mohammed Mohieh, Hezbollah Brigades - Iraq, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Mike Pompeo, Adel Abdul Mahdi, Russia, China, Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis, Truman Doctrine Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-31-2019 ** 31-Dec-2019 World View: Iran-backed protesters in Iraq attack American embassy
Right now, while you're totally obsessed with really important news like the latest Pelosi quote, there's a major attack going on by Iran-backed protesters in Baghdad, Iraq, attacking the American embassy. Apparently the embassy has not yet been evacuated, although the American ambassador to Iraq is not present. As I wrote in today's article, this kind of thing is fully in Iran's playbook, trying to repeat the success of the 1979 civil war in uniting Iranians behind the clerics by attacking the American embassy in Tehran, causing the "Iranian Hostage Crisis." However, this will fail for the reasons that I've explained in many articles -- what works in a generational Crisis era (1979) fails in a generation Awakening or Unraveling era (today). The Iraqi armed forces are supposed to be protecting the American embassy. Events are developing. ---- Sources: -- Protesters storm US embassy compound in Baghdad https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/iraqi-protesters-attempt-storm-embassy-baghdad-191231090526066.html (Al Jazeera, 31-Dec-2019) -- Protesters attack US embassy in Baghdad after airstrikes https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/31/middleeast/iraq-protests-us-embassy-intl/index.html (CNN, 31-Dec-2019) Related Article: ** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191231.htm#e191231 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 12-31-2019 (12-31-2019, 10:04 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 31-Dec-2019 World View: Iran-backed protesters in Iraq attack American embassy From the post above this one... ** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury Uh, sounds like some sort of Shiite payback to me. Btw, I think the 1979 hostage situation was due to the US./UK coup in 1953. The US should just fucking leave the Mideast. We've trashed the place enough already and I'd reckon lots of folks there just totally hate us. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-31-2019 *** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters **** Three of the five militia leaders who attended the protest at the U.S. Embassy, from left to right: Hadi Al-Amiri, Qais al-Khazali, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (Memri) Happy New Year everyone! A detachment of 100 Marines are deploying from Kuwait to Iraq to reinforce security at the US Embassy in Baghdad. Hundreds more American soldiers are planned for deployment. The Baghdad embassy is the largest US embassy in the world. On Tuesday, hundreds of pro-Iranian Iraqis, led by Qais al-Khazali, stormed the embassy. There was some property destruction, and some fires were set, but the embassy was not evacuated. The US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, was away on a trip, but said that he is immediately returning to the embassy. According to one analyst, Behnam Ben Taleblu, "It's important for him to come back because it would be a show of force that America is not going to flinch in the face of this pressure." The attack on the US embassy was led by Qais al-Khazali, founder of the Iran-backed Shia terrorist group Asaib Ahl al Haq militia, responsible for hostage-taking and the killing of U.S. soldiers. However, al-Khazali's terrorists have also won seats in Iraq's parliament, under pressure from Iran. The attack was a response to US airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah terrorists that have been attacking American bases with artillery, and on Friday killed an American contractor. (See yesterday's article, "31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah provoke international fury" ) According to al-Khazali: "Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a source of evil, and we want them to leave." For months, there have been massive anti-Iran protests in Iraq, threatening to completely distabilize the Iraqi government which is mostly dominated by Iran. Leaders of these protests on Tuesday made it clear that they do not agree with al-Khazali, and that their protests had absolutely nothing to do with and had no relation to the attacks on the US Embassy. **** **** Mainstream media reactions **** As usual, reporters with the mainstream media stumbled over themselves in a rush to make one idiotic statement after another. The NY Times was heavily criticized after it called the US embassy attackers "mourners" in an idiotic tweet: "Hundreds of Iraqi mourners tried to storm the United States Embassy in Baghdad, shouting 'Down, down USA!,' in response to deadly American airstrikes this week that killed 25 fighters." Chris Murphy is a 46-year-old Democrat on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. Two months ago I heard him on giving a speech on al-Jazeera that was so idiotic that I wrote an article on the Generational Dynamics forum 23-Oct-2019 World View: The stupidest person in Congress - Chris Murphy. The occasion was a speech where Murphy blamed the deep historic split in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between Saudi Arabia and Qatar on Donald Trump. The concept is so idiotic that al-Jazeera just played the sound byte without saying a word about it. Now Chris Murphy is blaming the attack on the US embassy in Tehran on Donald Trump: "Trump has rendered America impotent in the Middle East. No one fears us, no one listens to us." It's not surprising that a NY Times reporter would say something so dumb as to call the Shia terrorists "mourners." Most of these reporters are kids out of college where they majored in women's studies or sociology, following years of declining SAT scores, and most of them probably couldn't find Iraq on a map. But I'm singling Chris Murphy out because he says unbelievably stupid things even though he's been on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee for six years, and should know better. He's supposed to be an expert. He's supposed to be making American foreign policy. But he's an idiot. This goes we'll beyond ignorance into sheer stupidity. In 2006, the Congressional Quarterly and the London Times conducted a survey of Mideast experts (Democrats and Republicans), and found that they couldn't answer simple questions like whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization. (As I recall, most thought they were Shia.) You know, I really do despair that the country is being run by total idiots. And the "experts" in China are also idiots. But this is why we're headed for World War III. There's a larger picture here. There are a lot of people, Republicans and Democrats, like Murphy, who believe that if any event occurs anywhere in the world, then it occurred because either the President of the United States did something or didn't do something. What Generational Dynamics says, and what has been proven over and over again, is that major events in the world have absolutely nothing to do with the US president except as a target of convenient political blame. There are deep-seated hatreds in the Mideast going back millennia, and they keep bubbling to the surface every few decades in the form of a war. In particular, despite what Murphy says, the split in the GCC had nothing to do with the president, and the attack on the embassy is based on Iran-Iraq animosity unrelated to America, and closely related to the extremely bloody and vicious Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. **** **** The link to the 1979 attack on US embassy in Tehran **** In yesterday's article, I wrote that it seemed likely that the attacks by Kataib Hezbollah on American bases were done purposely to bait the United States, and force a response. Since the US has no choice but to respond to a military attack on its base, especially when an American is killed, the attack achieved that purpose. Despite all the mainstream media nonsense, Iran is deeply in trouble. In recent months, there have been thousands of anti-government protesters in Iran, and thousands of anti-Iran protesters in Iraq. This is increasingly a threat to Iran's control of Iraq's government, and even a threat to the Islamic regime inside Iran itself. As I've said many times over the years, the standard playbook in Iran is to repeat the Iranian Hostage Crisis that took place in the context of Iran's civil war in 1979. At that time, Iranian terrorists stormed the American embassy in Tehran, making the terrorist leadership of Iran into international heroes. The people in the leadership in 1979 were young and fun-loving, willing to slit somebody's throat on a bet. Today those leaders are very old geezers, still willing to split anyone's throat, but now desperate to hold onto power. And like a person who tries to relive the most exciting erotic experience of his childhood, the old geezers in Iran are trying to trying to relive their fun-loving attack on the US embassy in Tehran in 1979. One of the terrorist leaders of Tuesday's attack, Abu Alaa Al-Walai, leader of Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, tweeted the following: <QUOTE>"The popular mobilization forces, more accurately the mobilized people, surrounded today the embassy of evil in Baghdad and will soon surround the camps and headquarters of the U.S. killers that are spread all over the Iraqi lands. ... [The demonstrators will go further to surround] the embassies of [America's] tails and submissive countries, [including Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain]. The siege of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran back in 1979 extends to today's siege of the embassy in Baghdad, 2019. It summarizes the history: Allah will bring victory to those who support Him."<END QUOTE> Notice two things about this statement. The obvious one is linking Tuesday's embassy attack to the 1979 embassy attack. But also notice the reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. These are the members of the GCC opposing Qatar, and they're also heavily involved in opposing the Iran-supported Houthis in the Yemen War. So Tuesday's attack on the US embassy touches on many deep divisions among the Mideast countries. So now, based on multiple analyst descriptions, we can put together a more complete narrative of Tuesday's attack on the US embassy:
Iran and Iraq are still in a generational Awakening era, and the most likely scenario now is that these anti-embassy attacks will fizzle fairly quickly. Once again, Happy New Year everyone! However, the decade doesn't begin until 1/1/2021, so don't celebrate that yet. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Hadi Al-Amiri, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis Qais al-Khazali, Asaib Ahl al Haq, Kataib Hezbollah, KH, Mohammed Mohieh, Hezbollah Brigades - Iraq, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis, Matthew Tueller, Behnam Ben Taleblu, Chris Murphy, Abu Alaa Al-Walai, Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Bahrain Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-01-2020 ** 01-Jan-2020 World View: America's Manifest Destiny (12-31-2019, 03:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > From the post above this one... As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was exiled. During all this time, the UK, Russia and later America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for their own failures. If the 1953 CIA coup played any part in that, it was a small part of a large tableau. It's laughable that you blame the US for trashing the Mideast. As I showed in my book on Iran, the Mideast has been trashing itself, over and over and over, for millennia. One thing I've discovered in 15+ years of developing Generational Dynamics is that there are very few people in the world who hate us -- maybe some Palestinian groups, maybe some African black liberation groups, maybe some anti-American hate politicians within the Democratic party, maybe a couple of other groups -- despite the "ugly American" stuff you read in American media. Most people in the world admire America and Americans, and many would love to come to America and become Americans themselves. Most of the vitriolic criticism of America, and lately of Trump, is from politicians who are using it for their own domestic political goals. It's always easy to blame America for any problem in the world, when a politician doesn't want to admit his own stupidity. As for withdrawing from the Mideast, or from the world, I do get asked this question reasonably frequently, and in fact was just asked a similar question in the Generational Dynamics forum. There are practical reasons why this is impossible. One is that Israel is an important ally. So is Egypt. And we're committed to providing security to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudis can provide the world with oil. Those commitments cannot simply be abandoned. And the news today is that Trump is sending 700 more troops into Iraq to protect the American embassy. So withdrawing from the Mideast is little more than a fantasy. But it's more than that. As I've written in the past, there are a lot of people, in America and in the world, who believe in American Exceptionalism, and who truly believe that America has a moral obligation, or even a Christian obligation, or even an obligation dictated by God, to fulfill American's Manifest Destiny, and to do the right thing, and they would not consider withdrawing from the Mideast or the world as the way to do the right thing. In fact, you can see this dynamic in the Mideast today. Trump said he wants to withdraw troops from the Mideast and he's gotten howls of outrage and criticism from pretty much everyone -- Democrats, Republicans, liberals, conservatives. He's still being criticized constantly for reducing the number of troops in Syria after ISIS was defeated. There are many people, like yourself, who would like to see America withdraw from the Mideast and just let them "trash" each other without American involvement, but withdrawing from the Mideast is just impossible, as it would be inconsistent with America's Manifest Destiny. |