richard5za Wrote:> As a results of agreements at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944
> the US dollar became the reserve currency of the world giving the
> USA substantial economic advantages. With the strong physical flow
> of gold to Asia, and especially China, over a period of many years
> now, a speculation has developed that at some point the Asians
> would launch their own reserve currency to reduce their dependence
> upon the US dollar.

> The logical economic consequence would be a weaker US dollar. Gold
> would increase in dollar terms.

> And the value of USA stocks would reduce simply because the
> dividends are lower in terms of global currencies.

> If the PE ratio was say 12 then one would expect a correction not
> too far away from the currency depreciation. However at current
> levels it would create a crash. So as a matter of speculation
> this, or even serious talk of this, might be the catalyst for the
> next crash. I wonder if 1944 is significant in terms of
> generational theory?

(12-31-2019, 11:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Iran and Iraq are still in a generational Awakening era, and the most
likely scenario now is that these anti-embassy attacks will fizzle
fairly quickly.

(01-01-2020, 10:46 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It seems every year for the last 20-30 years, someone has been talking
about replacing the dollar as a reserve currency -- Iran, China, the
euro, etc.  That would be like trying to replace the Titanic with
a rowboat.  The US dollar has far too much mass and momentum to be
replaced in any time span less than a few decades.

tetmo Wrote:> CNN reports on more than 100 Uyghur gravesites and tombs in China
> appear to have been destroyed.

> https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/01/02/china-uyghur-graves-rivers-newday-pkg-vpx.cnn

(01-01-2020, 12:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > It's not just figurative "mass and momentum", either.

> The US has the only navy capable of guaranteeing sea lanes world
> wide. While we currently guarantee them for everyone, we don't
> have to do that. I could easily imagine a situation where the US
> tacitly permits pirates open season on nondollar trade.

> China is currently trying to develop the capability to protect her
> own transport lanes to Europe. However, that's not sustainable,
> because China has no domestic need for more than a coastal navy.
> Even if Xi manages to build a blue water navy, the next leader, or
> the next, will decide it's a waste of money and take it out of
> commission.

> The US, however, needs a blue water navy capable of controlling
> most of the world's oceans - north and south Pacific, north and
> south Atlantic - just to keep its own coasts connected. Once that
> navy exists, it's relatively easy for the US to patrol all of the
> world's oceans, and reap the benefits of controlling the world's
> reserve currency.

(01-02-2020, 07:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Jan-2020 World View: Uighur gravesites

tetmo Wrote:>   CNN reports on more than 100 Uyghur gravesites and tombs in China
>   appear to have been destroyed.

>   https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/01/02/china-uyghur-graves-rivers-newday-pkg-vpx.cnn

As I keep repeating, after hearing "Never again!" for decade after
decade after decade, it's absolutely astonishing to me that there is
massive genocide and ethnic cleansing going on by the Chinese in East
Turkestan, by the Burmese in Rakhine, and by Bashar al-Assad in Idlib.

(01-01-2020, 10:44 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 01-Jan-2020 World View: America's Manifest Destiny

(12-31-2019, 03:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   From the post above this one...

>   ** 31-Dec-19 World View -- American airstrikes on Iraq's Kataib
>   Hezbollah provoke international fury

>   Uh, sounds like some sort of Shiite payback to me. Btw, I think
>   the 1979 hostage situation was due to the US./UK coup in 1953.
>   The US should just fucking leave the Mideast. We've trashed the
>   place enough already and I'd reckon lots of folks there just
>   totally hate us.  

As I described in my book on Iran, Iran's 1979 civil war was triggered
generationally by the 1890 Tobacco Revolt, the 1905-09 Constitutional
Revolution, and the 1963 White Revolution in which Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini was exiled.  During all this time, the UK, Russia and later
America were bogeymen that various Iranian politicians blamed for
their own failures.  If the 1953 CIA coup played any part in that, it
was a small part of a large tableau.

It's laughable that you blame the US for trashing the Mideast.  As I
showed in my book on Iran, the Mideast has been trashing itself, over
and over and over, for millennia.

One thing I've discovered in 15+ years of developing Generational
Dynamics is that there are very few people in the world who hate us --
maybe some Palestinian groups, maybe some African black liberation
groups, maybe some anti-American hate politicians within the
Democratic party, maybe a couple of other groups -- despite the "ugly
American" stuff you read in American media.  Most people in the world
admire America and Americans, and many would love to come to America
and become Americans themselves.  Most of the vitriolic criticism of
America, and lately of Trump, is from politicians who are using it for
their own domestic political goals.  It's always easy to blame America
for any problem in the world, when a politician doesn't want to admit
his own stupidity.

As for withdrawing from the Mideast, or from the world, I do get
asked this question reasonably frequently, and in fact was just
asked a similar question in the Generational Dynamics forum.

There are practical reasons why this is impossible.  One is that
Israel is an important ally.  So is Egypt.  And we're committed to
providing security to Saudi Arabia so that the Saudis can provide the
world with oil.  Those commitments cannot simply be abandoned.

And the news today is that Trump is sending 700 more troops into Iraq
to protect the American embassy.  So withdrawing from the Mideast is
little more than a fantasy.

But it's more than that.  As I've written in the past, there are a lot
of people, in America and in the world, who believe in American
Exceptionalism, and who truly believe that America has a moral
obligation, or even a Christian obligation, or even an obligation
dictated by God, to fulfill American's Manifest Destiny, and to do the
right thing, and they would not consider withdrawing from the Mideast
or the world as the way to do the right thing.

In fact, you can see this dynamic in the Mideast today.  Trump said he
wants to withdraw troops from the Mideast and he's gotten howls of
outrage and criticism from pretty much everyone -- Democrats,
Republicans, liberals, conservatives.  He's still being criticized
constantly for reducing the number of troops in Syria after ISIS was
defeated.  There are many people, like yourself, who would like to see
America withdraw from the Mideast and just let them "trash" each other
without American involvement, but withdrawing from the Mideast is just
impossible, as it would be inconsistent with America's Manifest Destiny.

(01-02-2020, 07:56 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > 1. Yup, I think American Exceptionalism is stupid, arrogant and
> delusional. This is because whatever happy talk the MSM is up to,
> the US has deep, structural problems. I can name some of them.
> The US healthcare system is a nothing but a worthless grifting
> scheme. Little wonder lifespans are falling. The US workplace is
> a hellhole. That is one reason folks are turning on to mind
> altering chemicals. If I had to work at Amazon for example, meth
> might be the only to keep up with their pace. Now let's take a
> look at sacrifice zones. There are polluted or ruined places due
> to extreme weather and neoliberal policies. Among these are not
> cleaned up superfund sights, places like Flint, Appalachia,
> Baltimore, almost any inner city, fire ravaged / blackout places
> in California, the rustbelt, etc.

> And of course climate change is gonna be the threat multiplier
> threat from hell. Just look at Australia now. Wow, man it gives
> a whole new meaning to burn! baby! burn.

> Of course you're right John. I despise globalism and the US
> empire.

> https://youtu.be/ni9rncx8ceA

• Gen. Qassim Soleimani (when he was alive)

Quote:> "Soleimani was an enemy of the United States, that is
> not a question. The question is this: reports suggest, did
> America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization,
> the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a
> potential massive global regional war."

(01-02-2020, 10:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Wow. Trump doesn't mess around. Hope he's ready for serious
> attempts on his own life.

> Unfortunately for Murphy, the IRGC is a designated terrorist
> organization, so the strike is covered by the AUMF.

(01-02-2020, 11:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Any thoughts on where this will go?  If Iran is in an awakening period, the country won't support prolonged fighting against the US.  Will the IRGC and the various militias formerly managed by Soleimani try to extract revenge with attacks on US forces, or will they not even attempt that?

I can see it accelerating the generational turnover in Iran, so it's looking like your prediction of Iran becoming a US ally has some hope.

(01-02-2020, 11:48 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Any thoughts on where this will go? If Iran is in an awakening
> period, the country won't support prolonged fighting against the
> US. Will the IRGC and the various militias formerly managed by
> Soleimani try to extract revenge with attacks on US forces, or
> will they not even attempt that?

> I can see it accelerating the generational turnover in Iran, so
> it's looking like your prediction of Iran becoming a US ally has
> some hope.

(01-03-2020, 02:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I cannot now afford a newspaper subscription, so I have not lifted
> anything from editorial pages. What the late General Schwarzkopf
> said is public domain because he said it while in service to the
> US government.

• Shooting down a US drone with a surface-to-air missile
  over the Strait of Hormuz in June.
  
• Multiple attacks on oil tanks in the Persian Gulf and the
  Sea of Oman
  
• Attacking Aramco oil refineries in Saudi Arabia
  
• Months of artillery attacks on American bases in Iraq,
  finally killing an American on Friday.
  
• Attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. This is generally considered
  to be an act of war.

(01-03-2020, 02:30 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: BTW, what is Japan's generational constellation at this point?

(01-02-2020, 11:43 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(01-02-2020, 10:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Wow. Trump doesn't mess around. Hope he's ready for serious
>   attempts on his own life.

>   Unfortunately for Murphy, the IRGC is a designated terrorist
>   organization, so the strike is covered by the AUMF.

I don't think we need Iran for that -- I'm sure he's already been
preparing for serious attempts on his life by Democrats.