Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 01-10-2020 (01-01-2020, 10:44 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 01-Jan-2020 World View: America's Manifest Destiny American Exceptionalism. Yup, that is the meme for Empire and of course all empires have this stuff. However, this sucker is going down. Problem is, the US no longer has an industrial base nor 50% pf the world GDP. That is one institutional framework that's gonna die in this 4T. It's dying now and I'll dance on its grave. 1. Rotten infrastructure. After all bloated pentagram budgets leave little for anything else. 2. Americans are stupid. http://4brevard.com/choice/international-test-scores.htm Americans: Overshopped and under educated. Mideast again. Do our clusterfucks in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and now Iran? Where are the successes? We leveled those places and trashed their infrastructure to look a little worse than ours. Hell, I'd be enraged if some country trashed everything and killed fellow citizens. I see no reasons why the Mideast folks wouldn't feel different. Hell, they should pop any American they see. Oh and Iran has a red button. They can blow up the derivatives if they are attacked. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-10-2020 *** 11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections **** The Lennon Ship on the campus of Taipei National University of the Arts, built by Hong Kong students in support of Tsai Ing-wen (SCMP) Taiwan's presidential election occurs on Saturday. The voting has already begun at the time I'm writing this article (Friday evening ET), and the voting may be over by the time you read this. The election results are almost certain to be very bad news for the leaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is almost certain that the current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence of Taiwan from China. China has repeatedly threatened military action to invade Taiwan and annex it to China. Indeed, my book "War Between China and Japan - why the US must be prepared" contains a detailed historical analysis of China's current plans to invade Japan to get vengeance for World War II, and to invade Taiwan to annex it. In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law" that stated that China will take military action in response to anything that even hints at independence: <QUOTE>"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."<END QUOTE> Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan. Tsai's chief opponent is Han Kuo-yu of the opposition Kuomintang Party, which is the modern day descendant of the Nationalist Party formed by Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution civil war (1934-49), split northern China from Southern China. Chiang lost militarily to Mao, and many people in southern China fled to Hong Kong, which was then a British colony, and from there to Formosa and Taiwan. Chiang's Kuomintang party maintained iron rule in Taiwan until the 1990s, when the Taiwan independence movement led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) began to rise, especially after the Taiwanese people watched the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in horror. Tsai has one more opponent, James Soong Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller People First Party. **** **** Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan **** The victory by Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP in January 2016 was considered historic because it was a large, decisive victory, and so was a major setback for the CCP. However, the DPP lost badly in local elections in 2018, and might well be on her way to losing the current presidential election, if it were not for the chaos in Hong Kong from pro-democracy protests that began in June of last year. Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1977, and Taiwan was a Japanese colony prior to the end of World War II, but Hong Kong and Taiwan see themselves as very close. They both favor the Cantonese dialect of the Chinese language over the Mandarin dialect favored by the CCP. And they both favor freedom and democracy, which the CCP considers to be a Western plot to overthrow the CCP. They're still in shock from 1991 when a pro-democracy movement in the Soviet Union caused the Russian Communist Party to collapse. The CCP has been trying to convince the people of Taiwan to adopt the supposedly wonderful "one country, two systems" formula used in Hong Kong. The argument appeared to be winning until last year, when it became clear that the CCP was violating the agreement in Hong Kong, with acts that led to the massive street protests. It became clear to the Taiwan people that "one country, two systems" would just lead to putting the island in control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship. A number of analysts have been suggesting that things have calmed down in Hong Kong because of the approaching Taiwan election, since the pro-democracy students in Hong Kong are supporting the re-election of Tsai Ing-wen. This follows a historic victory by pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong in November. ( "25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray" ) If this is true, then it means that Saturday's election in Taiwan, if the DPP wins as expected, has the potential to be extremely significant. Two major pro-democracy elections at nearly the same time in Hong Kong and Taiwan may throw the CCP thugs into a panic. This could be even worse if, once the Taiwan election is over, Hong Kong returns to extreme chaos again in the weeks to come. The CCP leaders in Beijing are hoping that if they remain calm, then the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will fizzle, and the pro-independence movement in Taiwan will die. As I've said many times, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cannot end, because all young people in Hong Kong know that if they marry and bring children into the world, then the children will be under the control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship in 1947. The same would happen in Taiwan. If the Taiwan election goes as expected, then the CCP leaders in Beijing are going to be looking ahead to a long 12 months in 2020 where the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and the pro-indenpendence movement in Taiwan will grow. This isn't going to change, no matter how much the CCP thugs pretend to be "nice." John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Anti-Secession Law Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 01-10-2020 (01-10-2020, 11:40 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1977, and Taiwan was a This is not correct. Almost everyone in Taiwan speaks Mandarin, not Cantonese; the few that don't speak Mandarin speak Taiwanese, which is farther from either Mandarin or Cantonese than they are from each other. To the extent that they see each other as close, it's only because they are both small democratic Han entities that live in the shadow of Mainland China, and thus have some common interests. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-11-2020 ** 11-Jan-2020 World View: Corrections to Taiwan article Guest Wrote:> A few typos, John. But I can only assume these were do to a lack You're right about the lack of sleep. Thanks for the corrections. Also, thanks for buying the books. I hope you enjoy them. Quote:> Cantonese, is very different from Taiwanese (01-10-2020, 11:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > This is not correct. Almost everyone in Taiwan speaks Mandarin, I thank both readers for their comments, and for the wealth of information provided. I've corrected the article online to be more ambiguous. I note that both of these comments agree that most Taiwanese do NOT speak Cantonese, which I had assumed would follow from Taiwan's heritage in people fleeing the communists through Hong Kong in 1949. However, I also take note of the fact that these two comments appear to disagree on whether the most commonly spoken language is Mandarin or Taiwanese. Here's a comment from a reader in Taiwan: Quote:> FROM THE ARTICLE: "It is almost certain that the I would wonder whether younger voters would have a low turnout in this election, in view of the effect of the massive pro-democracy protests by young people in Hong Kong. I would assume that the events in Hong Kong have energized the young people in Taiwan. At any rate, events have caught up to the situation: Quote:> "Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-wen wins second I hope you're enjoying your election watching party. The night (there) is still young. Related Article: ** 11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200111.htm#e200111 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-11-2020 ** 11-Jan-2020 World View: Anti-regime protests grow as Iran admits shooting down passenger plane
Iran is looking more and more like America during the height of the antiwar protests during the late 1960s. Today's admission by the Iranian regime is the equivalent of any of the major admissions made by presidents Johnson and Nixon, triggering new rounds of anti-American protests. Protesters are furious not only that the plane was shot down, but also that every agency in Iran's government lied about it for many days. They're chanting "death to the liars" and they're calling for the resignations of supreme leader Khamenei and president Rouhani. President Nixon was, of course, forced to resign, but that was after years of hearings and pressure that were necessary because the US constitution is full of checks and balances. In my book on Iran, I did a detailed analysis of Iran's constitution. The remarkable thing about it is that it contains no checks and balances whatsoever. Khomeini set it up that way so that he could become a dictator with no checks and balances. That's why Iran is a kleptocracy today, with no way for the government to do any business at all except through bribery and extortion. So now there's an ironic twist. The checks and balances that protected Nixon for long time do not exist for Khamenei, and so if the protests become too large and there's a loss of confidence in Khamenei, that's all it would take for the "velvet coup" or "bloodless coup" or "regime change" that I've been talking about. The result could be a return of the Shah. By the way, Russians shot down Malaysian Airlines MH17 passenger plane in July 2014 and despite massive investigations providing in controvertible proof of Russia's culpability, they still make ridiculous statement blaming others. Iran's admission will put pressure on Russia to make a similar admission. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ ---- Sources: -- Iran says it shot down Ukrainian plane in 'disastrous mistake' https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash/iran-says-it-shot-down-ukrainian-plane-in-disastrous-mistake-idUSKCN1ZA04Y (Reuters, 11-Jan-2020) -- Iran plane crash: Ukrainian jet was 'unintentionally' shot down https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51073621 (BBC, 11-Jan-2020) -- Hundreds protest against regime in Tehran after Iran admits it shot down plane https://www.timesofisrael.com/hundreds-protest-against-regime-in-tehran-after-iran-admits-it-shot-down-plane/ (Times Of Israel, 11-Jan-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-11-2020 ** 11-Jan-2020 World View: Chinese Creole FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> I'm pushing for an Austronesian-Speaker's revolt and takeover of When you take on this project, maybe you can use Esperanto as a model. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 01-11-2020 (01-11-2020, 10:44 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I note that both of these comments agree that most Taiwanese do NOT The Chiang Kai Shek's nationalists were from primarily from "southern" China - that is, from the Yangtze River basin rather than from the Yellow River basin - but not so far south as to be Cantonese, which is perhaps best associated with the Pearl River basin. The Yangtze River basin area is still Mandarin speaking, as opposed to the Pearl River basin. When the Nationalists were driven out by the Communists, they did retreat south, but took their Mandarin speaking nationalist government with them to Taiwan. Plenty of Cantonese fled the Communists, too - my mother was one of them - but they mostly either stayed in Hong Kong or emigrated to the US rather than going to Taiwan. I think Taiwanese was the most commonly spoken dialect of Chinese in Taiwan in 1986. However, Mandarin was becoming more common as a result of all official schooling being done in Mandarin from 1945-1990 or so. Wikipedia says Mandarin is now the most commonly used language at home in Taiwan at 83.5%, but bilingualism is much more common than I realized, with Taiwanese at 81.9% using it at home. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Taiwan RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 01-11-2020 (01-11-2020, 02:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Iran is looking more and more like America during the height of the That's what I've been thinking, too, though I guess I didn't post it here yet. The difference is that Iran is sending money instead of troops to support their proxy wars, so people are protesting the lack of money at home, instead of protesting the draft. I doubt they'll bring back the Shah, though that would be a nice touch; usually awakenings don't result in formal changes of government, right? They could, however, instate a Supreme Leader who would restrict the IRGC to being a domestic secret police rather than an external provocateur, which would permit them to agree to a deal that included everything President Trump wanted. I guess he would be a Reagan equivalent since he would usher in an economic rebirth, thanks to being able to export oil again. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Classic-Xer - 01-11-2020 (01-11-2020, 08:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:A Shah who is willing to share power and protect and oversee the formation of a democratic government/society would be ideal.(01-11-2020, 02:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Iran is looking more and more like America during the height of the RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-11-2020 ** 11-Jan-2020 World View: The Shah (01-11-2020, 09:37 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: > A Shah who is willing to share power and protect and oversee the That WOULD be ideal. But if the ideal can't be met, then at least let him be an ally of the United States, like the last Shah. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 01-12-2020 I agree that would be ideal. Reality is rarely ideal, though. John, wouldn't a change of form of government be inconsistent with an awakening era? If you think it's consistent, can you outline how you think it could happen? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2020 *** 13-Jan-20 World View -- In historic reversal, Iran admits shooting down passenger plane This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** In historic reversal, Iran admits shooting down passenger plane **** This image from Wednesday shows the crash site with a bulldozer burying the evidence so that Iran can deny culpability. (AP) Three days ago, overjoyed Iranian officials were watching as millions of Iranians were in the streets for the funeral of Iran's Gen. Qassim Soleimani, who had been killed by an American airstrike. Iranian officials had thought that, finally!, the Iranian people were returning to their support the government. As I pointed out in my daily commentary in the Generational Dynamics forum, this was mostly a show put on by Iran, and it wouldn't last. Now the situation has flipped back again. Iranians, who had believed the government's story that they were winning the war in Iraq against the Americans, now learn that everything that government has told them was a lie and cover-up, and that the only result of Iran's missile attack on Americans was not dead Americans, as the government had claimed, but hundreds of dead Iranians. There are growing anti-government demonstrations. The new demonstrations are relatively small, but they're expected to grow. For any number of reasons, the decision on Saturday by the government of Iran to admit to shooting down a Ukrainian airlines PS752 passenger plane with a missile, killing all 176 people aboard, could turn out to be the most historically consequential decision of Iran's experiment with a government of Islamic Shia terror and dictatorship that was created by the Islamic Revolution in 1979. For several days, the government made increasingly outlandish lies to defer blame for shooting down the passenger plane. They bulldozed the crash site to hide the evidence. They refused to allow international experts to examine the planes "black boxes." They blamed the crash on a mechanical error, and they said that the plane has suddenly changed direction ominously -- both claims that Iranian video showed were untrue. All this was a lie, and the government knew it was a lie from the very beginning. Iranians listening to the BBC heard that the US, Canada and Ukraine said they had evidence to prove that Iran had shot it down with a missile, but the government of Iran said that the BBC reports were "fake news," part of the usual anti-Iran plot by the and Israel. Finally, on Saturday, Iran admitted shooting it down, saying that doing so was a "disastrous mistake." General Hossein Salami said, "I swear to almighty god that I wished I were in that plane and had crashed with them and had burned but had not witnessed this tragic incident." **** **** Why did Iran's government finally admit to shooting down the passenger plane? **** So, why did Iran do a U-turn and admit to shooting it down? The narrative in the media today is that Iran was forced to do so by the conclusive evidence that had been collected and presented by the United States, Canada, Ukraine, and other sources. But if you believe that, then you also have to explain why the Russians have never admitted shooting down the Malaysian Airlines MH17 passenger plane over Ukraine in July 2014, but instead have made one ridiculous claim after another, for example saying that the US had purposely shot it down to embarrass Russia. Since then, there have been numerous deep investigations that prove conclusively that MH17 was shot down by the Russians in eastern Ukraine, using a Russian Buk missile. But Russia continues to make ridiculous excuses. So if Iran was forced to admit its "disastrous mistake" after only five days, then how come Russia still makes one ridiculous claim after another for five years, and still refuses to admit its own mistake? What's the difference between Russia and Iran? There could be several reasons, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most obvious reason is that Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and with large and growing younger generations born since the Islamic Revolution, and these younger generations are generally pro-Western and pro-American. These younger generations are coming to power in the government, and they would have pressured their bosses in the government to tell the truth. The goverment was also pressured by the large anti-government student protests, which make Iran look every day more and more like America in the 1960s and 1970s. The demostrators are protesting that the government was incompetent because it kept Tehran airport open at the same time that the armed forces were launching missiles at American targets in Iraq. In fact, officials in many countries have been highly critical of Iran for this. Many have expressed incredulity that Iran would keep Tehran's airport open in what is essentially a war zone. The passenger plane that was shot down had just taken off from the airport, and the Revolutionary Guide forces mistook it for an American missile. But the main criticisms of the government were, of course, that the government lied for three days, not only denying that an Iranian missile had shot down the plane, but also that accusing Western governments and Western media of "fake news" in claiming that a missile had shot down the plane. Protesters point out that the government was claiming that the IRGC missile attack on Americans in Iraq would achieve victory by driving the Americans out, but all it accomplished was getting hundreds of Iranians killed. **** **** Iran's 'Vietcong Tet Offensive' **** This has dealt a major blow to the government's credibility. Iran's government has always blamed every problem on the United States and Israel, even claiming that peaceful protesters were terrorists funded by the US. The claims always lacked credibility, but now protesters will claim that every such claim was a lie. One of the chants on Sunday was, "They’re lying when they say it’s America. Our enemy is right here." I heard one Tehran apologist on the BBC claim that the loss of credibility was only a small, temporary blip, but if Iranian officials actually believe that, then they're sadly delusional. The analogous event during America's last Awakening era, in the 1960s, was the "Vietcong Tet Offensive." This was a massive military counterattack by North Vietnam's army in cities and villages across the entire country, beginning in January 1968. It took weeks for the American and South Vietnam forces to recapture the cities. The Tet Offensive was a military disaster for the Vietcong and the North Vietnam forces. But it was political victory that won the war by turning Americans against the war. Americans had been told that the war was nearly won, and that "we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel," but the Tet Offensive caused Americans, especially students, to believe those were all lies. The American government never recovered. President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would have to step down and not run for reelection. Richard Nixon became president, but he was relentless accused of lying about everything. The protests against Nixon became worse and worse, and eventually Nixon was forced to resign, under threat of impeachment. So that's the kind of thing that Iran's government is going to be facing from now on. Iran's anti-government protests will take on new energy following the recent disaster. Does this mean "regime change" in Iran? I've been writing for years that there will be "regime change" in Iran as it's Awakening era climax, but it's impossible to predict the timing or scenario. Last week's events have been so politically disastrous for Iran, that they may at least trigger some resignations and firings in the regime. There's a major parliamentary election Iran next month, and that may bring some changes. But as Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei becomes increasingly embattled, a more drastic change may occur, just as happened with Johnson and Nixon in America. **** **** Generational analysis of situation in Iran **** The complexity of the current situation in Iran and Iraq provides me with the opportunity to write a deeper generational analysis. The last week has been fairly dramatic for me personally, because the article that I posted on Friday evening stated unequivocally, based on a generational analysis of Iran and Iraq, that there would be NO WAR with Iran. (See "4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination" ) This was at a time when the media was filled with analysts almost unanimously predicting World War III, and left-wing media and politicians were saying things like, "I can't see how a war can be avoided." These idiots have now all been proven wrong, and Generational Dynamics has, as usual, been proven right. I reached my conclusion based on Iran's history, dating back at least to Iran's disastrous 1800s border wars. Whenever I make a prediction like this, I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will finally be the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot. Fortunately for me and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen this time, and in fact has never happened in hundreds of such predictions over the years, although this was one of the most dramatic. What did happen in Iran is completely in line with the generational analysis I posted. So it's been a relief for the world, and also for me personally. One thing that I've learned repeatedly is that the experts in Washington have no clue what's going on in the world. As I've mentioned several times in my articles, I learned this in 2006 when Congressional Quarterly and the London Times did a survey of Mideast "experts," many with years of experience, and found out that they didn't know the answers to the simplest questions. ( "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans" ) One of things that the experts didn't know was whether al-Qaeda was a Sunni or Shia organization. Think about that. We had people -- Republicans and Democrats -- making foreign policy who were so ignorant and stupid that they couldn't answer the simplest questions about the subject they were supposed to be experts on. (And recall that Pelosi famously declared that al-Qaeda was not in Iraq. Lol.) Today's politicians and media are obviously just as ignorant, which is obvious every time they open their mouths. I've previously singled out the Connecticut senator Chris Murphy for criticism because al-Jazeera has run video from him several times, and referred to him as an "expert." He's been in Congress since 2007 and on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2013, so he should know what's going on. And yet, he says the most incredibly stupid things. My theory is that the reason that al-Jazeera runs video from him and others like him is that they want to show to their Arab audience how stupid the Americans are. The generational analysis I'm about to give is not rocket science, but it's beyond the mental capacity of almost everyone, since it requires the ability to understand percentages and to do math at least the fourth grade level, and most people cannot do fourth grade math. Say what you want about Boomers, but we knew how to do percentages. But in the past few decades, SAT scores have been falling, and college graduates are so dumb, they don't even know how to read a map or understand historical concepts. If you listen to many politicians, reporters and analysts today talk about the economy and Socialism, you quickly realize that they're too dumb to even do second grade arithmetic. It's obvious that none of the experts on tv has any idea of what's going on in Iran, because they don't have the mental capacity to understand it. Also, they know absolutely nothing about Iran's history, because that's also beyond their mental capacity. So let's take a look at what you'd have to know if you want to understand Iran today. You may wish to have a pencil and paper handy to take notes.
So if you understand the above, they you understand why my unequivocal prediction that there would NOT be a war with Iran turned out to be true, while the idiots on TV and in the media who were predicting WW III really are idiots. And quite seriously, Dear Reader, if you listen to these guys in the mainstream media, you should understand that they literally don't have a clue about anything. They probably couldn't find Iran on a map, and they certainly know nothing about Iran's history. You might as well get your news from the Saturday morning cartoon shows. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qassim Soleimani, Iraq, Ukraine, Ukrainian Airlines PS752, Vietnam, Vietcong, Tet Offensive, Constitutional Revolution, Islamic Revolution, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-13-2020 (01-12-2020, 07:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I agree that would be ideal. Reality is rarely ideal, though. I once saw an interview of the son of the late Reza Shah Pahlavi II, and he said that he would function much like Juan Carlos of Spain... promoting a liberal and largely-secular Iran that respects the religious sensibilities of the People. Whatever that means... RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2020 ** 13-Jan-2020 World View: Reza Pahlavi son of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi (01-12-2020, 07:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I agree that would be ideal. Reality is rarely ideal, though. The Crisis Climax is typically a bloody, genocidal military event that establishes the winner of the war, and the loser. It can take many forms. The Awakening Climax is typically a chaotic political event that establishes the winner of the political struggle between the generations of survivors of the preceding crisis war and the generations growing up after the war, and resolves unfinished business from the end of the crisis war. The Awakening Climax, which typically occurs 30-50 years after the Crisis Climax, can be thought of as a political event that settles and solidifies the changes that occurred as a result of the Crisis Climax. If the preceding crisis war was an internal ethnic or racial civil war, then the Awakening Crisis is typically resolved with a political victory by the older generations (survivors of the war), which represent the winning race or ethnic group. If the preceding crisis war was an external war, then typically the country has political freedom, and the Awakening crisis is a free political battle that is typically resolved with a political victory by the younger generations (growing up after the war). Either way, it signals the beginning of the Unraveling Era. Some examples of Awakening climaxes:
Identifying an Awakening Climax is a lot harder than identifying a Crisis Climax, so this is an area that requires more research. At any rate, with regard to Iran, the constitution that Khomeini set up in 1979 is clearly defective, with no checks and balances, as I described in my book. So I would expect that some kind of change to the constitution would come out of the Awakening Climax. If there's a reversion to the constitution adopted by the Constitutional Revolution in 1906, then Reza Pahlavi, who is a leader of Iran's opposition, may become the Shah of Iran, the country's new leader. He is the son of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the last official Shah of Iran. He's quite popular among opposition groups outside of Iran. However, all this is speculative and, even if it occurs, it may not occur for years. (01-13-2020, 12:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I once saw an interview of the son of the late Reza Shah Pahlavi Just promise the people whatever nonsense they want to hear, and then forget about it when you get elected. The last Shah of Iran was almost as violent and repressive as Khomeini, so I don't expect much change. ---- Related: ** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e151109.htm#e151109 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2020 ** 13-Jan-2020 World View: Southern China (01-11-2020, 08:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Chiang Kai Shek's nationalists were from primarily from That's a lot of good information. Thank you. That also puts into perspective the 1959 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway show Flower Drum Song. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-13-2020 (01-13-2020, 01:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(01-13-2020, 12:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I once saw an interview of the son of the late Reza Shah Pahlavi True about Reza Shah Pahlavi. Healthy social orders do not implode as did the absolutist-totalitarian hybrid of the Pahlavi monarchy. Would I trust his son? Not on his word alone. If the Crown Prince has around him the same sorts of people who are close to the ideology of his father and a desire to settle old scores more than to establish a Constitutional democracy* -- and there would be scores to settle -- then his claims to be a democrat are a fraud. Any Iranian democracy will need to repudiate both the tyranny of the Ayatollahs and of Reza Shah Pahlavi II, and perhaps Marxism and Islamofascism in any form. Because the regime has resorted to shooting at peaceful protesters (that is a big difference between the Velvet Revolution of Czechoslovakia and the short civil war in Romania just a few days later) there will be no possibility of a peaceful transition of power. Note well that the United States warned the late Shah to not fire upon peaceful protesters. * I would expect any Iranian democracy to have an Islamic tinge. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-14-2020 ** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Bubble Higgenbotham Wrote:> This stock market bubble is way, way crazier than the all time It's not clear that Trump even understands that there's a stock market bubble. But if he does, he wouldn't want it to burst before the election. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 01-14-2020 (01-14-2020, 12:17 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Bubble I think he understands that $1Trillion plus Federal deficits are expansionary. Whether he understands that they can't go on forever I don't know. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-14-2020 ** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Bubble John Wrote:> It's not clear that Trump even understands that there's a stock Higgenbotham Wrote:> If he doesn't understand, it's because he chooses not to Trump on 26 Sep, 2016 | 22:05 Wrote:> Trump: 'We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble' OK, but I think it's more nuanced than that. When I was talking about a bubble and crash in the mid-2000s, people would say, "That can't happen. After the 1929 crash, laws were passed to make sure that a new crash would never happen again." As I pointed out at the time, those laws had all been repealed in the 1980s and 1990s. And then there's the continuing mystery of Alan Greenspan. I followed all his speeches in the early 2000s. All the mainstream economic reporters were whining, "Whaaa, whaaa, whaaa, Greenspan uses big words, and even though I'm supposed to be an expert, I'm actually too stupid to understand what he's saying." I didn't understand Greenspan's speeches at first either, but I would go the Federal Reserve web site and read it over a few times, and then I always understood. But that was beyond the mental capacity of all the "experts" at WSJ, CNBC, and elsewhere. So as I wrote at the time, Greenspan knew in 2004 that there was a housing bubble, but he thought it was a good thing, because it gave people more money. In Dec 2004, he told the WSJ that he knew in the late 90s that a bubble was growing, but that he decided to take care of it later. It wasn't until 2005 that he became alarmed. Milton Friedman had "proved" that the Great Depression had occurred because the Fed kept interest rates too high, and could have been prevented completely by lowering interest rates a bit. He said that any depression could be ended quickly by using a helicopter to drop money and spread it around. And of course Ben Bernanke said that he didn't believe in bubbles, and always "knew" that a bubble could be safely deflated by using Milton Friedman's helicopter idea. The 2008 financial crisis proved that Friedman, Greenspan and Bernanke were all completely full of crap. But then the Fed took up the battle with quantitative easing. So now we're in a huge bubble again, the hugest bubble in all of human history. But anybody who talks about a stock market "crash" says it will only fall 10-20%, because now the Fed is oh so clever, and has "saved some bullets" to be used if there's a recession. So when I say that Trump may not believe there's a bubble, what I mean is that he knows about the 2000 bubble and the 2007 bubble, but he doesn't believe that a bubble bursting will have severe consequences. That's really no different than not believing in a bubble at all. One other memory: In the mid-2000s, no one believed that there was a housing bubble, even though it was completely obvious, as I wrote in many articles. Mainstream financial analysts, economists and journalists would say, "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a bubble." It wasn't until 2010 that mainstream economist idiots even admitted that there had been a housing bubble --- five years earlier!!! And of course there was the whole subprime mortgage fraud, the biggest financial fraud in the history of the world, that Obama covered up by accepting hundreds of billions of dollars in donations to himself and his cronies in exchange for not prosecuting. So that's all in the past. Today we have Trump. I've said many times that, because of his connection to Steve Bannon, and Bannon's expertise in Generational Dynamics through working with me, Trump is well aware that war with China is coming. The reporters in the media, most of whom couldn't find China on a map, are totally baffled by Trump's foreign policy, 98% of which makes perfect sense when you realize that the issue is war with China. But Bannon is also very aware of the coming financial crisis. In fact, that's what the documentary movie Generation Zero was mainly about, and that's the movie that Bannon produced and I appeared in. So Bannon would certainly have told Trump about the danger of a stock market bubble and global financial crisis. But that doesn't mean that Trump believes it. Trump may well believe, like all the mainstream idiots, that there's a bubble going on, and even if there is a bubble, and even if the bubble bursts, then it won't be any worse than the bubbles that burst in 2000 and 2007. That's just as good as not believing there's a bubble. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-14-2020 ** 14-Jan-2020 World View: Alec Baldwin: Trump supporters responsible for destruction of America
I've written about the loathing hatred that Democrats have had for years for Tea Partiers, now the Trump supporters, repeatedly threatening and inciting violence against them, using the epithet "teabaggers," which is as bad as the n-word. I still recall Anderson Cooper and Peter Bergen on CNN giggling and laughing with each other over calling them "teabaggers." The level of loathing by actor Alec Balwin is so delusional, that it's still startling. Unfortunately, Baldwin's loathing for Trump supporters and incitement to hatred and violence is common among Democrats. In a series of tweets yesterday, Alec Baldwin wrote the following: Quote:> "American democracy has always been a struggle between As we watch the increasingly delusional impeachment show by the Democrats in Washington -- with the latest humiliation being that Pelosi finally will capitulate completely and send the documents to the Senate -- it's becoming increasingly concerning what the Democrats are going to do next. My father, a Greek immigrant, once told me that the violence in America in the 1930s was so bad that he thought America would not survive. The Democrat loathing of and hatred of Tea Partiers / Trump supporters has nothing to do with Trump. It's the same kind of tribal hatred that I've written about many times, and it's indistinguishable from Hutu vs Tutsi, Han vs Uighur, or Nazi vs Jew. It's as old as time, and the same evil is happening exactly the same today in America. In fact, if you read Alec Baldwin's tweets, quoted above, Hitler might have used exactly the same words to describe the Jews. This is, as I said, as old as time. The Democrats supported slavery during the American Civil War, and formed the militant Ku Klux Klan after the war. For a century, the Democrats through the KKK promoted discrimination and violence against blacks, and lynching and murder of blacks. The Democrats are headed for something similar today. The Democrats' loathing for blacks is shown by their hatred of all that Trump has done to improve the economy for blacks to historic levels. I'm really concerned about the Democrats becoming increasingly violent in 2021 if Trump wins re-election, and the Democrats realize that they're facing four more years of the loathsome, smelly Tea Partiers / Trump Supporters. They've become so delusional and so desperate that they might try anything. ---- Source: -- Alec Baldwin blames Trump supporters for 'near moral collapse of this country' https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/478246-alec-baldwin-blames-trump-supporters-for-near-moral-collapse-of (TheHill, 14-Jan-2020) |