Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 02-12-2020 (02-12-2020, 01:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Feb-2020 World View: WHO investigation team in China I suspect the virus is an unsatisfactory bioweapon built using CRSPR that escaped the lab. That it is highly contagious and has a long incubation period where the host is infectious makes that a viable guess. That they have no counter to it makes in unsatisfactory. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Marypoza - 02-12-2020 (02-09-2020, 03:43 PM)David Horn Wrote:(02-09-2020, 12:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea --- actually his Dad was/is the Professor, & a Marxist 2 boot. I'm surprised the priests let him teach there. But John has the right of it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-12-2020 ** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases and deaths In the last couple of hours, China's Hubei province, which contains the city of Wuhan, has just reported a huge jump in the number of confirmed cases of Wuhan Coronavirus, now officially named Covid-19. The number of reported cases had been leveling off, giving hope that the virus cases might have peaked. On Wednesday, for example, the number of new cases in Hubei was reported to be 1,310, and in all of China's mainland as 2,015. But on Thursday, Hubei reported 14,840 new cases, a huge jump. The big jump is being blamed on a new methodology for identifying confirmed cases. But it's not clear how the new methodology affected the results. However, another number has taken a big jump, and counting for this number is being done the old fashioned way. Health officials in Hubei province said 242 people had died from the virus on Wednesday, compared to 97 on Tuesday, and 103 on Monday. The big jump in the number of confirmed cases might be explained by a new methodology for counting cases, but you can't explain the jump in deaths by a new methodology for counting dead people. As usual, we have no idea whether the CCP thugs are lying or hiding something or are totally incompetent -- and it's probably that they're totally incompetent, since they're pretty incompetent about everything else as well. And we note again the fact that for weeks the CCP thugs have been refusing to allow the American CDC scientists come to Hubei province to investigate. Still, 14,840 new cases in one day, however explained, is very concerning. We're beginning to see larger outbreaks elsewhere, including Singapore with 50 cases. ---- Sources: -- Coronavirus death toll leaps in China's Hubei province https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/coronavirus-death-toll-leaps-in-chinas-hubei-province-idUSKBN207025 (Reuters, 12-Feb-2020) -- 18,480 new cases / Virus deaths in China's Hubei rises by 242 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/new-coronavirus-cases-fall-in-china/news-story/eb81e426f5a38b1b4b464a6159a8f568 (AP, 13-Feb-2020) -- Coronavirus latest updates: deaths in China pass 1,300 with huge jump in cases – live news https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-deaths-in-china-pass-1300-with-jump-in-cases-live-news (Guardian, London, 12-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-12-2020 Previously they were counting only cases that were confirmed by test and hospitalized, so they weren't counting even confirmed cases that were turned away from the hospital. That was obviously a suspect method, and maybe they're now counting all confirmed cases. Perhaps they've started counting deaths that occur outside the hospital as well. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-12-2020 ** 12-Feb-2020 World View: Lung imaging (02-12-2020, 09:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Previously they were counting only cases that were confirmed by AFP: "This means officials can use lung imaging on suspected cases to diagnose the virus, rather than the standard nucleic acid tests." -- China’s virus death toll surges to over 240 in a day https://www.asiatimes.com/2020/02/article/chinas-virus-death-toll-surges-to-over-240-in-a-day/ (AFP, 13-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2020 ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus bioweapon rumor Guest Wrote:> Three days ago, I would have laughed if someone had told me this This biowar rumor keeps popping up, but it's still in the category of alarmist and totally lacking in evidence. The only "evidence" that people point to is the extremely paranoid behavior of the CCP. The problem is that "extremely paranoid behavior" is normal for the CCP thugs. They view Christianity as a Western social movement to overthrow the CCP. They view "democracy" as a Western ideology whose only purpose is to undermine the CCP. What the CCP thugs would really like to do is figure out a way to claim that the coronavirus is a biowar weapon -- launched by the US to attack China. They haven't figured out a way to do that yet, but they're doing the second-best thing -- keep the CDC out. Just as nutcases in America blame the weather on Trump, there are plenty of nutcases in the CCP who either blame the US for causing the virus, or who blame the US for taking advantage of the virus to attack the CCP. Remember that the CCP thugs make one incredibly stupid decision after another, since they don't care about the people, but only care about staying in power. They would gladly let half of China die if they thought it meant that they would be in charge of the other half. So the fact that they're making stupid, paranoid decisions is not evidence of anything except their own stupidity and paranoia. Incidentally, I understand that the WHO team has finally arrived in China, but they're still being blocked from visiting Wuhan. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 02-13-2020 (02-12-2020, 06:53 PM)Marypoza Wrote:(02-09-2020, 03:43 PM)David Horn Wrote:(02-09-2020, 12:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 09-Feb-2020 World View: The old person's idea His father was from Malta, which has a rich history in the Roman Catholic Church. The tiny nation has been ruled by virtually every power in the region, dating back into prehistory, but the relationship with the RC church is the one that still stands today. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2020 ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Liking and disliking Xeraphim1 Wrote:> I find myself quite torn here. I intensely dislike Putin and the This is an interesting observation. Of course I can't apply the Generational Dynamics analysis methodology if I worry about whom I like or dislike. Still, it's a personally interesting question whom I like or dislike, so your post made me think about it. I guess it's not surprising that I tend to like politicians who do well in Generational Dynamics analyses, and dislike the others. That's the opposite of finding that a politician does well in an analysis because I like him. In fact, likeablity is an extremely misleading criterion, since it's affected by ethnic or religious biases. For example, I try as much as possible to stay neutral between Jews and Arabs, even though almost everyone else hates one and loves the other. Hitler was greatly beloved by his German constituents. He won elections, and he was very popular. But still, he was a genocidal monster and so I pretty much dislike him. Bashar al-Assad is an interesting example today. He is also a sociopathic monster and war criminal, and gets personal pleasure out of seeing tens of thousands of his political enemies suffer grotesque torture and atrocities in his Saydnaya Prison in Damascus. But my articles kept getting comments from Russian and Syrian trolls telling me what a nice guy he is. I remember one guy explaining that he's a great, wonderful opthamologist who is trying to lead his nation in the best way. I advised him not to seek al-Assad for medical treatment, or he might have his eyes removed. I particularly remember one Syrian troll named Jan Fearing. She would tell about her visits to Damascus and particularly her interviews with mothers living in Damascus. These mothers thought al-Assad was wonderful and generous to his people, with policies that particularly benefited children. Jan Fearing apparently thought that by telling me these stories, and by being semi-flirtatious with me, I would come to love al-Assad too. Good luck with that! Finally she said, "Well, at least you aren't calling me a troll anymore." And I wrote back once again listing some of al-Assad's atrocities, concluding with "And yes, you are definitely a troll." Several trolls talked about how much Syrians loved al-Assad, and how he won elections. So if I were to give in to these trolls and to Jan Fearing's flirtations, I suppose I would like al-Assad too. But I don't. I intensely despise him because of his actions, his genocide, his ethnic cleansing, and his atrocities. A lot of people seem to like Vladimir Putin, and there have been plenty of paid Russian trolls making comments on my articles. I started writing about the paid Russian trolls as early as 2014. I've always considered complaints that Russia interfered with 2016 election to be somewhat ridiculous, since Russian trolls are total idiots. Anyway, Putin is well beloved, but Putin lies about everything. These include lying about Russian soldiers in Ukraine, lying after Russians shot down a passenger plane with a Buk missile, lying about not invading Crimea, lying about whether Russia is going to annex Crimea, and then annexing Crimea. He poisoned people in Britain with nerve agent Novichok and lied about it. There are lots more lies related to Bashar al-Assad's use of Sarin gas and chlorine gas. And the entire Astana and Sochi "peace process" with Erdogan was complete joke. So, as you can guess, I really dislike Putin. In America, Trump has made some remarkable achievements for which the country is better off, contrasted to Adam Schiff, who lied repeatedly and manufactured evidence, and was a total sleazebag deserving to live in a sewer. Schiff is loved by the Democrats and the media because he hates Trump and the 63 million Trump supporters. This shows why it would be dangerous for me to base my analyses on "liking" or "disliking." People who are "liked" are held to a very low standard, so they can lie and commit atrocities with impunity. Hitler was loved, so he could kill the Jews with impunity; al-Assad is loved, so he can slaughter the Sunni Arabs with impunity; and Adam Schiff is loved, so he can lie, manufacture evidence, or commit any crime he wants with impunity. Trump, on the other hand, is hated, so he's held to a much higher standard of honesty and behavior than any Democrat, as a result of which he's forced to be extremely honest. Another example is Bill Clinton, who is beloved by the Democrats and media, even though he violently raped close to a dozen women with impunity. So now let's turn to Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He is widely hated in America and Europe, but I have to consider that to be irrelevant, and look at his behavior. Here are some things about Erdogan to dislike: - He's taken control of the press. - He's jailed over 100,000 political enemies. - He's defied Nato and bought Russian S-400s. - He hates Kurds. However, all of those things are offset by some real issues: - Kurds have been conducting terrorist attacks since the 1980s. - There was a major military coup attempt in 2016. - He's hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees as a humanitarian gesture. - The EU has frequently broken promises to him and humiliated him. So there is some balance between the reasons to like or dislike Erdogan. But what I actually like about Erdogan is that he doesn't lie, at least not more than a typical politician. If you take a look at those four criticisms above, he admits them and defends them. That makes him different from the sleazebags like Putin, Khamenei, al-Assad and Schiff, who simply lie through their teeth, and deny what is obviously true. There's a certain honesty to Erdogan that I like, and while his behavior is bad, it's not as bad as the others' behavior. And as in the case of Trump, he's forced to be as honest as possible because he's more "disliked" than the others, and so is held to a much higher honesty standard. However, I have to add again, I can't let "liking" or "disliking" influence my analyses, and I point out, as I always do, that my web site contains about thousands or articles, analyses and predictions on hundreds of countries and societies, and they've all turned out to be true or trending true. None has been wrong. By contrast, analysts and journalists who allow themselves to be led by what they like or dislike are usually wrong about 50% of the time. When I was in college specializing in Mathematical Logic, I always liked to recall something by Bertrand Russell: Quote:> "Now in the beginning everything is self-evident, and Russell's advice is very useful when you're trying to prove something like the Gödel Incompleteness Theorem, which takes "new and difficult symbolism" to an extreme, but for Generational Dynamics I don't have the luxury of inventing new symbolism so that nothing will be obvious, since the stuff I write is meant to be read by the general public, not by mathematicians. But the problem is the same in Mathematics or in Generational Dynamics -- if you "like" something, or if something is "obvious," that doesn't mean that it's true, and might sometimes mean that it's false. As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're going to need Erdogan as an ally as long as possible, whether we like him or not. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Marypoza - 02-13-2020 (02-13-2020, 05:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Liking and disliking -- so lemme get this straight: U like the Donald but not his bff Vlad the lmpuppeteer. Amirite? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2020 ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Hubei province: 4,823 new coronavirus cases
Yesterday's huge jump in Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) cases -- 18,840 new cases, 242 deaths in Hubei province -- turned out to be a one-day phenomenon, caused by a change in diagnostic criteria. Friday's report is of 4,823 new cases and 116 more deaths. These new case figures are lower than yesterday's big surge, but still higher than the preceding trend. Unconfirmed reports on tv said that concerns have been raised that the virus cannot be contained in either Singapore or Japan. North Korea says that they have no cases, but of course they won't know until people start dying. The CDC still has not been permitted to visit Wuhan city. This gives the very strong impression that the Chinese are hiding something very serious. International anger is growing that the Chinese apparently knew about the virus as early as October, but ignored it and censored reports about it until January. China is being blamed for the spread of the virus both inside and outside of China. Xi Jinping has rarely appeared in public since mid-January, since he doesn't want to be blamed for the unfolding disaster. However, several local officials in Wuhan city have been fired. ---- Source: -- Coronavirus: Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases and 116 more deaths https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050570/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-4823-new-cases-and-116-more (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 14-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-13-2020 ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Vlad the puppeteer? (02-13-2020, 08:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- so lemme get this straight: U like the Donald but not his bff I'm not sure what you're saying, since I'm not familiar with some of the words you're using, and I wonder if those words are local to some Midwest cult or enclave, but I think you're saying that Putin is a puppeteer and Trump is the puppet. I've heard that before from the loony left, but it's a totally loony fantasy, and bears no resemblance to reality. I saw Tulsi Gabbard again on Fox yesterday. Perhaps she's Fox's choice for the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, MS-NBC's choice for Democratic nominee is anybody but Bernie Sanders. Update: Tulsi Gabbard will be on Fox Business Network sometime in the next hour or two (i.e., sometime between now and 11 am ET 2/14). Correction: Tulsi will be interviewed in the 11am-noon hour. Update: In response to a question about why she's still running, she pointed to her experience and her issues, she said that unlike the other candidates she's running a campaign based on issues, not just hatred of Trump, and said that there's an almost total media blackout of her campaign. She said, for example, that Buttigieg has had 11 media townhalls, and she's had only one. [Paragraph corrected] Comment: I would guess that the reason that the mainstream media hates her is because she doesn't hate Trump and 63 million Trump supporters, which is the one and only important thing to the Democrats. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-13-2020 (02-13-2020, 05:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As for withdrawing from Incirlik, that's a bad idea because we're Of course, part of the reason we need him is because Incirlik is so well positioned, and we don't really have any alternatives for covering that part of the world. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-14-2020 ** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Stock market trend Higgenbotham Wrote:> Let's say the stock market futures have topped out at this I think that this analysis is exactly right. I just updated my DJIA historical page for the first time in a while: ** DJIA Historical Page ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.djia.htm It says that the current DJIA trend value is 9325. If we assume a roughly ten to one ratio, then the current S&P 500 trend value would be more like 932. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-14-2020 ** 14-Feb-2020 World View: HHS Secretary gives harsh criticism of China over coronavirus transparency On Friday morning, Health and Human Services secretary Alex Azar was interviewed on CNBC, where he harshly criticized China for its lack of transparency with regard to the coronavirus emergency. Here are the major points:
Here are some excerpts (my transcription): Quote:> "The problem is with China is that you don't know what In response to a question about Singapore, where human to human transmission is occurring: Quote:> "We're assessing the data, hour by hour, to determine He also offered the following advice to everyone: Wash your hands, cough into your sleeve, and don't touch your face. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/14/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-on-us-preparations-for-coronavirus.html RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Marypoza - 02-14-2020 (02-13-2020, 09:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 13-Feb-2020 World View: Vlad the puppeteer? -- yeah & you're showing your biases RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-14-2020 ** 14-Feb-2020 World View: Biases (02-14-2020, 05:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > -- yeah & you're showing your biases What bias is that? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2020 *** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan **** American Marines in Afghanistan (Getty) This could be a Saturday Night Live skit. And maybe it will be. The United States, led by Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, announced an agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan whose final objective would be to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan. According to Esper on Thursday: <QUOTE>"The best, if not only solution forward is a political agreement. We have the basis for one on the table, and we are taking a hard look at it. We are consulting with our allies. We are consulting with Congress and others. And I think peace deserves a chance."<END QUOTE> It's not exactly a "peace treaty," since no one pretends that it will bring peace. And it's not a truce, since no one pretends that the US and the Taliban will stop killing each other. And it's not a ceasefire, since no one pretends that anyone will cease firing. It's being called a "reduction in violence" which, I assume, means that the number of schoolchildren that the Taliban will kill with bombs every week will be reduced by, say, 25%. That's progress, isn't it? And it's not a permanent "reduction in violence" agreement. It's a 7-day "reduction in violence" agreement. If the Taliban uphold their commitments during the 7 days, then negotiations would begin within 10 days for a permanent U.S.-Taliban peace agreement. Where the negotiations will take place was not announced, but Germany and Norway have offered to host the talks. The Afghan government is not party to the agreement. And then if the negotiations go well, the United States will begin to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. There are about 12,000 American troops in Afghanistan, and about 4,000 troops from other Nato countries. It takes my breath away. By the way, the US and the Taliban announced an agreement in September, and the Taliban were coming to Camp David to sign it. But them a terrorist set off a car bomb in Kabul, killing 12 people including an American soldier, so Trump called off the signing ceremony. Something like that could happen again during the 7-dy reduction in violence. **** **** The year of laughable peace agreements **** Whenever any politician says anything like: <QUOTE>"There is no military solution. The only possible solution is a political solution."<END QUOTE> then he's nothing but a babbling idiot. The same is true when a politician, like Esper, says "And I think peace deserves a chance." There is NEVER a political solution to a war. (Well, just to protect myself, let's just change that to "almost never.") If it's a generational crisis war, then it end will with an explosive genocidal climax and victory. WW II in Europe did not end because Churchill and Hitler got together and signed a peace agreement. WW II in Asia did not end because FDR and Emperor Hirohito agreed to a political solution mediated by Charles de Gaulle. If it's a non-crisis war, then it might end with victory and surrender, or it might end with a "peace agreement." But in the latter case, the peace agreement will never last. Typically, in these situations, the combatants alternate between periods of war that end in ceasefires, and periods of "peace" that end when the peace agreement collapses. The Jews and the Arabs have signed multiple "peace agreements," but they don't last. The conflict between Jews and Palestinians will not end except through a massive bloody war, where one side or the other achieves victory, and the other side surrenders. That's the way the world works. As the old saying goes: <QUOTE>"Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."<END QUOTE> So let's take a look at three "peace agreements" that are in the news these days.
It's interesting how similar these three laughable "peace agreements" are:
As I say, politicians are babbling idiots. If you look at the world today, American and the Western countries generally feel obligated to honor their commitments. But three major countries -- Russia, Iran and China -- see commitments and peace agreements as a way of controlling the West, since they can violate the agreements with impunity, but the Western countries remain bound to them. In fact, this has been an actual strategy of Russia and Vladimir Putin since 2010 -- use Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council to cripple the foreign policy of America and the West, while Russia does whatever the hell it wants, such as annexing Crimea. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics" ) **** **** Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail **** Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan. Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill each other. The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in great detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan. It's not rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts," but it does require studying history and trying to understand what's actually going on in the world. But we live in a society where SAT scores have been plummetting for decades, ever since the Boomers graduated, and where all college courses are being taught by incredibly stupid Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream media know nothing about the world except Marxist sociology and women's studies. In Congress you have total idiots like AOC who says something every day to prove how stupid she is. And in the Administration, you have "experts" who have also graduated from colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's studies. So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket science, but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the analysts, journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of whom are way too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have any clue what's really going on in the world. The same is true about many of the other hundreds of countries and societies that I've studied, analyzed and written about in the last 15 years. All the people in Washington can do is stumble in the dark, until they stumble into World War III. Then they finally learn what's going on. That's the way the world works. "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed to American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s. Sources:
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Mark Esper, Israel, Palestinians, Syria, Idlib, Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Ambrose Bierce Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2020 ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Iran and Afghanistan utahbob Wrote:> John, Good analysis. ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to utahbob Wrote:> I just found this: We don't know how the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) is going to affect the world in the next couple of months. And you've given a good example. A big virus outbreak in Afghanistan would change everything. Iran is already suffering from the virus because China is buying far less oil from Iran, and Iran's economy is already sick. If there's a big outbreak in Iran, and it's blamed on the fact that the leadership ignored it until it was too late, that could cause a palace coup. There's a lot of nervousness among medical analysts that we might still see a big explosion. Of course, here in the United States, or in Britain or Europe, we all have sophisticated medical infrastructures, so we'll stop it in its tracks if it gets here. Oh wait a minute. Singapore has a very sophisticated medical infrastructure, and some analysts are saying that it will have to burn through Singapore. Japan is also a modern developed nation, and it's spreading across the entire country. The same is true in China. The Chinese are claiming that it's contained now, but of course that just means the epiceneter, Hubei province. China has 1.4 billion people, and it may already have spread to even millions of people without the CCP yet knowing it. The problem is that it's apparently possible to spread the disease asymptomatically. A person may become infected, and then spread it to many other period during the 14-24 day incubation period, before he even knows he has it. The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa, and so forth. And those are developed countries. We don't know what will happen if it spreads to underdeveloped countries in Central Asia, Africa, and elsewhere. So if the current glide path to "normalcy" continues, then the crisis should be all over in two or three months. But if there are very bombshells -- large unexpected outbreaks in various parts of the world -- the the world may look very different in two or three months. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2020 ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Pandemics in liberal democracies I just heard an interview on the BBC World Service where the guy said that he expects the "liberal democracies" to experience pandemics, and then what they'll have to do is let the virus spread, and then treat the severe cases in hospitals. The last I heard, the death rate is 2.1%. So that would imply that the world population will be 2.1% smaller a year from now. That would be good news for climate change activists. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 02-16-2020 (02-16-2020, 04:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Pandemics in liberal democracies I see problems with our toll road sick care system. 1. Some won't call 911 'cause they have no health insurance and they know that call will bankrupt them. 2. Private prisons are run for profit maximization only. Nothing else matters 3. Food insecure Americans probably have run down immune systems 4. Homelessness, nothing else to add here. 5. Bad American diet. I wonder if the average Chinese have this problem... I have other wonders as well. I wonder what the inability to pay mortgages and rents will do here. I also wonder about all of those other bills folks can't pay. Will they get booted out and hounded by debt collectors. I wonder what the Chinese do as well. I guess all of those unpaid bills mess up Social Credit Score. |