Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2020 ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus laboratory Navigator Wrote:> I cannot believe it, but it appears that the CCP is admitting that It's hard to know what to make of this article, since the claims are still speculative. At the very least, it means that the Chinese themselves aren't sure whether the source of the virus is natural or man-made. I also wonder what's going to happen to the authors, Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao. I hope they enjoy living in a bottomless pit. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2020 ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Toll road sick care system (02-16-2020, 05:08 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > I see problems with our toll road sick care system. It's amusing to see the usual kind of Trump-bashing spin put on something like this. The problem won't be that Obamacare subscribers with $10,000 deductibles will have insurance versus those without insurance because they used to have insurance, but their policies were canceled by Obamacare and "the stupidity of the American people" [Jonathan Gruber]. The problem will be that a pandemic will overwhelm all hospitals and health care providers, and since any infected patient will be a danger to all around him, a way will be found to treat all people equally, whether they have Obamacare or not. For the same reason, prisoners will be treated. China: "Almost 150.8 million people are malnourished. Given the size of China's population, rates of 9.4 percent for stunting in children, 19.6 percent for anemia and 25 percent for overweight represent significant national and global burdens." -- World Food Program https://www.wfp.org/countries/china When you're talking about China, it's good to separate the CCP from the victimized Chinese people. The Chinese people in Taiwan, which is governed by a Western-type democracy, and the Chinese people in Hong Kong, which was governed until recently by Britain, have about five times the income of the Chinese people governed by the CCP thugs. As for things like mortgages, we already have some experiences with that. In the mid-2000s, Gen-X financial engineers created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and when the Gen-X scheme fell apart, millions of people became bankrupted and/or homeless. I imagine that bank regulators will try to apply lessons from that experience to a pandemic situation, although many issues will be different. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 02-16-2020 (02-16-2020, 06:22 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Toll road sick care system 1, Gen-X did bad stuff. OK, so what generation made up most of the regulators? Also, I don't think Tangelo and Dimon are X'ers, so there's that. It's actually our rotten system we have now, which is Neoliberalism. It's our national religion man, with shopping centers as temples. Neoliberalism is where people, resources, and capital are deployed worldwide in order to maximize profits. That's the only god, profits. There is no other. However, as I think we agree, China and the US are decoupling and this virus in pushing it along. That's the end , right there. We also agree about our bubble, right? So it's all going away. Globalism is a dead man walking. 2. I think the bank regulators will screw up again. That's because they're bought. Since they were bought in 2008, and they're still bought now, meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Same as it always was. 3. Statistics. OK, so I guess it's OK to compare the US to China and say we're a Shining City on a Hill. I think not. https://medium.com/christian-citizen/a-look-at-food-insecurity-malnutrition-in-the-united-states-5d3fe5c893f0 So, how about some other stats comparing/contrasting , say developed countries? You know, like Taiwan. I'd love nuke our sick care system for Taiwan's. So let's support Taiwan and adopt it's healthcare system. Let's have them tell us how to do something we're stupid about. And if it means killing off insurance companies, outlawing lobbying, whacking our defense budget, etc. Never let a good crisis go to waste. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2020 ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Singapore Quote:> The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at Guest Wrote:> Singapore is hot and humid year round. Here's an article from Singapore that says that the virus is less active in warmer weather so you should keep your air conditioners turned off: Quote:> "Coronavirus: Turn off air-conditioners and open However, it's not clear whether the author of this article actually knows something or is just guessing. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-17-2020 The usual advice for beating infections is to stay cool. Germs apparently love warmth, which explains how chilly nursing homes can be. No, that is not a reference to the staff. Staph -- yes. Of course, viruses and bacteria operate differently, and viruses are difficult to kill. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-17-2020 ** 17-Feb-2020 World View: UN declares Libya agreement to be a 'joke'
There was a press conference in Munich on Sunday, to achieve agreement to stop supply weapons to factions in Libya. Egypt and UAE have been supplying weapons to one side -- the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by international renegade Khalifa Haftar. Haftar is headquarted in the east, and is attacking Tripoli in the west. Turkey has been supplying weapons to the other side -- the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Serraj. The GNA is in Tripoli. Sunday's Munich meeting was a follow-up to a meeting a month ago in Berlin, when foreign ministers from a dozen countries agreed to an arms embargo. Turkey, Egypt and UAE ignored the agreements they made in Berlin, and continued supplying arms as if nothing had happend. So I watched some of the press conference Sunday in Munich, attended by the same foreign ministers of the same countries as last month's meeting in Berlin. I particularly watched the report given by U.N. Deputy Special Representative to Libya Stephanie Williams. Williams was practically in tears as she described the suffering in Libya, and she said: Quote: "The arms embargo has become a joke, we all really So, all the foreign ministers talked for a while, evaded answering a few questions from the press, agreed to enforce the arms embargo, stood for a photo shoot, and went home, having done their jobs. Today they'll ignore the agreement and violate the arms embargo again. In my article yesterday on Afghanistan, I described three laughable peace agreements -- in Afghanistan, the Mideast, and Idlib (Syria). All of these agreements are jokes that will never be honored. And now we have this laughable Libya agreement, where these people agree to an arms embargo and then just ignore what they agreed to. But this is a little different than the other agreements: It isn't just me that's calling it a joke. It's the UN representative. Actually, everyone knows it's a joke. Everyone knows that the other three agreements are also jokes. What the hell are these people doing? And why am I here? You know, every day I sit alone in my apartment for 14-16 hours per day, reading the news, writing little articles. So I read stories every day about babies starving, children raped, men beaten and tortured, endless slaughter, mutilations, lost mothers, lost fathers, lost children, starving children with exposed bones, enslavement, child trafficking, child prostitution, child soldiers, and depraved politicians hiring trolls to lie about their atrocities. Rarely does a day go by when there aren't two or three stories that bring tears to my eyes. When I was young, I didn't understand what was going on, and I figured that I was too young to understand, and that I'd understand when I was older. Well, that turns out to be true. I'm old enough now, and I understand. And a lot of these politicians are really sick psychopaths. Bashar al-Assad is the worst, but Vladimir Putin, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, and Xi Jinping aren't far behind. And I even understand how it happens, thanks to Generational Dynamics. It's really very simple. I've seen it in country after country. I've started calling it the "democide pattern." When two ethnic groups have a generational crisis war with each other, they conduct the most horrendous atrocities on each other during the war. The most sickening acts become the norm during such a war. The people who conduct these atrocities become traumatized, and turn into psychopaths and sociopaths. At the climax of the war, when the worst and most sickening atrocities occur, the war ends. The top general of the side that wins becomes head of government. This is a guy who ordered one sickening atrocity after another, and now he can't stop. He's the worst sociopath of all. So I see these politicians coming out of the Democide Pattern, committing the most horrendous, sickening acts every day. There's an unfolding catastrophe in Idlib, as well as active Holocausts in Xinjiang and Rakhine, but these politicians just agree to pretend it isn't happening. Or they hold a committee meeting, say "this is not acceptable!" and then go home. As far as they're concerned, people are no better than cockroaches. As I've written in the past: There are several Holocausts going on today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a Holocaust while it's actually going on is too politically painful, because the politicians, the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the cheerleaders, the propagandists, the psychopaths, the sociopaths, and the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust, and will protect it. It's only after it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the wise men can stand up and say, "Never Again!" So every day, every hour, every minute, I ask myself, why the hell am I alive? I have no place in this world. Even if it weren't for the fact that I'm going to run out of money and then I'll be forced to kill myself, even forgetting that problem, there's still no place in this world for me. This is an insane world which makes no sense to me at all. And the feeling is mutual. The world would like to get rid of me as well. Here's a typical conversation: Quote: Recruiter: Hi, John. I saw your sensational resume The above is not a joke. It actually happened, and something like it happens every week. So on both a global and personal level, I have absolutely no place in this world. On the global level, politicians make ridiculous agreements that no one cares about, and on the personal level I don't even exist. Yeah, I know, thousands of people read the articles I write, and they care. But for all but a few of them, the articles are like comic strips that you can enjoy reading every day as long as they're free. No one considers them to be worth anything, or worth paying a salary for. Someone told me that they make thoughtful points, which means that he considers them like Peanuts comic strips. If I disappeared, I would be forgotten by all but a few people within a couple of weeks. I'm like a cartoon character in my own comic strip. Why do I keep doing this? I keep asking myself and never have an answer, except you've gotta do something to fill the time till you run out of money. Did all of you see the movie "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" It's like I used to live in the real world, but somehow I got abducted by a Toon, and now I'm trapped in Toontown, and I've turned into a Toon myself, with no way back to the real world. And remember "The Dip"? It's impossible to kill a Toon since, after all, they're Toons. But Judge Doom has found a way, with The Dip, a mixture of turpentine, acetone, and benzine. When Judge Doom throws a Toon into a vat of The Dip, then the Toon dissolves. So today, I'm trapped in Toontown and can't get out. Some politicians are using The Dip in Syria, Burma, China, and elsewhere. And other politicians scream, "this is not acceptable!" but then pretend it isn't happening. And then there are the Democrats. Have you seen the Democrats? They compete with each other every day to prove to the world that they're the stupidest Toons of all. And I keep wondering, why the hell am I here in Toontown? And if I've turned into a Toon, and I can't get out of Toontown, then at least tell me how I get access to that vat of The Dip. Sorry about this long rant, and sorry to make it all about me. But let's face it, I'm right. Look around. We do live in Toontown. ---- Sources: -- U.N. says Libya arms embargo a 'joke', demands accountability https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-security-libya/libya-arms-embargo-a-joke-says-u-n-official-idUSKBN20A09X (Reuters, 16-Feb-2020) -- Libya arms embargo is a joke, says UN envoy as ceasefire talks continue https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/libya-arms-embargo-is-a-joke-says-un-envoy-as-ceasefire-talks-stall (Guardian, London, 16-Feb-2020) -- Powers renew pledge to uphold Libya arms embargo https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/powers-renew-pledge-uphold-libya-arms-embargo-200216094627169.html (Al Jazeera, 16-Feb-2020) -- Who Framed Roger Rabbit - plot summary https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096438/plotsummary (IMDB) ----- Related articles: ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200216.htm#e200216 ** 6-Dec-18 World View -- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181206.htm#e181206 ** Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e070114b.htm#e070114b RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-17-2020 I appreciate your information. I have kids, so I want to keep track of the progress of the crisis so I can keep them out of harm's way to the extent that I can. I tried to make a donation, but Paypal doesn't like my credit card for some reason. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-17-2020 ** 17-Feb-2020 World View: CDC and Coronavirus Guest Wrote:> The Chinese Government is one gigantic, compulsive liar. That is a The Chinese have apparently approved the World Health Organization (WHO) team, and it has arrived in China. The team will include "some Americans," according to reports, but whether they're CDC scientists or just American politicians in some Chinese-funded organization is not known. WHO is dependent on the Chinese for a big chunk of its funding, and so the WHO will do as the Chinese tell them. Also, it's not known whether the WHO team will be permitted to visit Wuhan and Hubei, the epicenter. If not, then the WHO team is just for show, and will accomplish nothing. There's a growing body of circumstantial evidence that the Wuhan coronavirus is man-made, and did not occur naturally. However, whether it's a bioweapon or had some other research purpose is still speculation. Also, it's thought that it was introduced into the wild through an animal bite, but that's just speculation also. -- Americans on WHO team to assess crisis, China says https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051026/americans-who-team-assess-coronavirus-crisis-china-says (SCMP, Hong Kong, 17-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-18-2020 ** 18-Feb-2020 World View: Turkey faces imminent crisis in Idlib, Syria The Syrian regime, backed by Russian warplanes, is moving rapidly through Idlib province. Syrian and Russian airplanes are particularly targeting hospitals and markets. This is leading to the usual cries of "This is not acceptable!" from the usual United Nations officials. Hundreds of thousands of additional Syrians, mostly women and children, have been forced to leave their homes, and now there are over 900,000 of these Arab Sunnis packed along the border with Turkey. The weather is bitterly cold, and many of them are forced to sleep outdoors with little or no protection. Syria's sociopathic war criminal president Bashar al-Assad gave a televised speech on Monday reaffirming his intention to take control of Idlib as quickly as possible. With Turkey's border closed to Syria, this puts the lives 900,000+ Sunni Arabs at imminent risk. I've written many times in the last year or two that there is a massive disaster unfolding in Idlib. Bashar al-Assad will threaten the massive slaughter of a million innocent men, women and children, current huddled along Turkey's border. If Turkey opens its border, then they'll flood into Turkey as refugees, and from there into Europe. Turkey's other option is to send its army to fight al-Assad's Syrian Arab army. That army has become so weak that Turkey would have no problm defeating it, but then Turkey would be at war with Iran and Russia. According to one analyst I heard, Russia has been preparing for this day since 2015. After Turkey shot down a Russian plane in 2015, Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey that eventually forced Turkey to back down. Russia has also provided Turkey with a nuclear power plant and a pipeline, and an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. According to the analyst, Russia has been preparing to use these developments as leverage, to leave Turkey with no choice but to do as Russia says. Under these circumstances, Turkey may be forced to open its border, and allow the refugees to flow into Turkey and Europe. Things are moving quickly now, and these choices may have to be made within the next week or two. ---- Sources: -- Analysis Turkey and Russia Clash Over Syria, and Idlib's Residents Are Paying the Price https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-turkey-and-russia-clash-over-syria-and-idlib-s-residents-are-paying-the-price-1.8552759 (Haaretz, 18-Feb-2020) -- As Assad advances in Idlib – Turkey finds itself in a tough spot between Trump and Putin https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-idlib-trump-putin-russia-assad-turkey-erdogan-a9342616.html (Independent, London, 18-Feb-2020) ---- Related articles: ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200216.htm#e200216 ** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200211.htm#e200211 ** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200209.htm#e200209 ** 1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181201.htm#e181201 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-19-2020 Thank you, Donald Trump, for betraying the Kurds and the democratic opposition in Syria. [/snark] RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-19-2020 ** 19-Feb-2020 World View: Syria crisis (02-19-2020, 01:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Thank you, Donald Trump, for betraying the Kurds and the But the Syria crisis began in 2011, got much worse in 2015 as Russia and Iran entered the war, and the US was supplying tens of billions of dollars to Iran, which Iran used to fund terrorist and military activities in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Remind me, who was president? Was it that brilliant master of foreign policy, whose name I forget, and his bumbling secretary of state? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-19-2020 *** 20-Feb-20 World View -- Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus **** Two elderly Iranian nationals died of coronavirus in a Qoms hospital on Wednesday. They had not recently traveled outside of the Qoms area. This is significant because it means that they must have been infected communally as much as two weeks ago, which indicates that there must be a cluster of cases in Qoms. This is the kind of outbreak we expect to see increasingly frequently. Iran has a close relationship with China, as do many African countries, and many individuals travel between China and these countries. A coronavirus outbreak in Iran could quickly spread to Iraq and Syria. **** **** Syria war in Idlib close to explosion **** The situation in Idlib, which I've been reporting on almost every day, is about to explode. On Wednesday, Erdogan gave a speech threatening both al-Assad and Putin. In the meantime, al-Assad's army is pushing a million people, mostly women and children, towards to the border with Turkey. It won't be long before coronavirus starts spreading among those million people. And then either Turkey and Syria will be at war, or else Turkey will open the border and allow those million refugees with coronavirus to flow into Europe. There are hard deadlines and hard positions here. It seems unlikely that anyone will back down, and so this situation is expected to explode by March 1. Sources:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qoms, coronavirus, China, Africa, Syria, Idlib, Turkey, Russia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-20-2020 *** 21-Feb-20 World View -- Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) **** Scientists at the Wuhan Virology Institute wear high-grade hazmat suits. On the institute's grounds is the Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory, which is designated to study the most dangerous pathogens, including viruses like Ebola and SARS. There are denied rumors that Covid-19 was man made at the Wuhan lab. (Daily Mail) There's a great deal of hope in the air of a "V-shaped" recovery, meaning that the virus is causing massive economic problems now, but this will be followed a huge recovery, as things return to "normal" in April or May. Other people, perhaps a lot more realistic, don't expect resolution until well into summe. This article describes the main issues surrounding the coronavirus. The last section, "V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial crisis," describes how the virus crisis was permanently change this generations behavior permanently. **** **** The V-Shaped Recovery **** China is claiming that the virus has now been contained because the number of new cases each day has gone down for a few days. In the West, the dream is of a "V-shaped recovery," where everybody will be hurt in Q1, but then all that lost business will be regained in Q2. In particular, the widespread hope is that the warmer weather in April would bring an end to coronavirus, at least until the Fall, and by then measures can be taken to prevent further spread. That's the hope. However, many people believe that the Q2 V-shaped recovery scenario, while possible, is less likely than a scenario that extends well into summer. In a television interview of 2/19, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health was asked how certain he was that the virus would be contained and not allowed to spread in the US. He said (my transcription): <QUOTE>"Given the situation the way it is today, we've successfully done that with the 15 cases that we have - 13 of which were travel from Wuhan, and two of which were spouses of the travelers. If we get a worldwide pandemic, where you have sustained transmission in multiple regions about the world, then it's gonna be very difficult to adequately contain it anywhere. I think we did do a reasonably good job, but it's not going to be absolute."<END QUOTE> Fauci is a leading American expert. You can try to read between the lines and decide whether he's just being cautious or whether he's sending a signal that far worse is yet to come, but either way, a V-shaped recovery is very far from certain. In particular, he makes it clear that one scenario is that we may be facing a massive worldwide pandemic, in which the world will be a very different place by summer. Fauci described the virus as follows: "But clearly this is a highly transmissable virus that does have a disturbing level of mortality." There are many conflicting reports about the spread of the virus in America and other countries, and unfortunately there's no reason to believe any of them. **** **** Credibility of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) **** Since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lies about pretty much everything, few people believe that China is telling the truth about the situation in China. The Chinese were apparently aware of the virus as early as October, and heavily censored any information about it. In fact, a correspondent whose sister was a nurse working in Wuhan told me that the Chinese began building new hospitals in Wuhan in November, which is considerably earlier than they admitted to knowing about the virus. A Chinese scientist, Li Wenliang, warned his colleagues of a potential "SARS-like" disease in December 2019, but was harshly punished, and he later died of the disease. Other Chinese scientists have been jailed for describing what's happening. This week, the CCP expelled three WSJ reporters from China, because of an opinion piece that appeared in the paper, criticizing Xi Jinping's handling of the coronavirus crisis, and referring to China as the "sick man of Asia." The three reporters had nothing to do with the opinion piece, but they were expelled anyway, and WSJ has now apologized to the CCP thugs for offending them. This is how the CCP extends its censorship around the world, since the WSJ will now have to refrain from publishing information or else suffer other retribution. The CCP imposes similar worldwide censorship about many other subjects, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong riots, the South China sea, or the Uighur genocide. Any publication anywhere in the world can be punished by the CCP for publishing information that the CCP doesn't like. In January, as the size of the epidemic in Wuhan was becoming publicly known, the United States began placing travel restrictions on travelers from China. This infuriated the CCP, not only because they tend to whine about everything that America does, but also because the move gave cover to many other countries to do the same, and also to Central and Southeast Asian countries to close their borders to China. **** **** The CDC and the bioweapon rumors **** In January, the American CDC, which has the best and most experienced virologists in the world, offered to send people to Wuhan in January, as the size of the infection was becoming apparent. China not only blocked the CDC scientists, but at same time the foreign ministry issued statements blaming the United States for not offering to help. This is a typical example of the Chinese talking out of both sides of their mouths. There has been a World Health Organization (WHO) team that has been permitted to enter the country in the last couple of days, and that team contains a couple of CDC scientists. But according to reports on Wednesday, the WHO team is still being blocked from visiting Wuhan, and they're being confined to hotel rooms where they're being fed filtered data by the CCP. Last week on Friday morning, US Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary Alex Azar was interviewed on CNBC, where he harshly criticized China for its lack of transparency with regard to the coronavirus emergency. He was asked, "Do you know for a fact that this virus occurred naturally, and not in some kind of P4 bioweapons lab?" He evaded the question with this response: (my transcription): <QUOTE>"We need to be very careful not to engage in speculation here, until we have data and evidence. We need transparent access to all first generation genetic sequencing. And we gotta get on the ground and do what we always do -- work shoulder to shoulder with the Chinese scientific experts. To just look at raw data, and solve these questions."<END QUOTE> Azar's point is that question won't be resolved until the CDC scientists, the best in the world, are able to go to Wuhan and examine the evidence. This was a message to the CCP that there will be more unpleasant rumors, and the Chinese have only themselves to blame for those rumors. If China continues to block the CDC, then they have no right to whine about rumors that begin. **** **** Xi Jinping and 'Social Instability' **** The CCP gives the need for "social stability" as the reason for the harsh censorship, and for expelling, jailing or torturing reporters. By "social stabilty" they mean that they fear that people will turn against Xi Jinping and the CCP. Xi Jinping's own credibility is badly damaged. He said that everyone would be back to work by now, and everyone knows that's far from true. Furthermore, severe restrictions are still on in Wuhan, and regional authorities around the country are still imposing local restrictions on travel. China's entire economy is all but locked down, and tens of millions of migrant workers who went home for the Lunar New Year are unable to return to their jobs. Many people have been out of work almost two months -- many of those will not be able to afford food, or pay rent. This could generate anti-CCP activism. Historically, this is exactly the kind of environment that leads to an anti-Chinese government rebellion. There are already some signs of resistance and criticism of the CCP in Guangzho province, which is adjacent to Hong Kong, including the arrest of Xu Zhiyong, the leader of the New Citizens Movement, which is advocating greater freedoms. This is highly significant. China's history is filled with hundreds of crisis wars in the form of massive internal rebellions (civil wars). The last two of these massive rebellions were the the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) -- and both of these rebellions began in Guangzho province and spread north. China is overdue for a new massive civil war, and any sort of economic setback could be the trigger. The CCP leadership are very well aware of this history, and are extremely paranoid about it. **** **** Developing a Vaccine **** Most commentators agree that the coronavirus will remain an active threat until a vaccine is developed. Estimates are that some companies will begin testing a vaccine within a couple of months, but no vaccine will be ready for widespread use for at least 6-12 months, and possibly longer. In the meantime, some existing drugs are being tested. For example, doctors in Thailand said they appeared to have some success in treating severe cases of the coronavirus by combining Tamiflu with anti-HIV drugs. However, those who develop severe cases and survive often have damaged heart muscles, and many have developed heart attacks. **** **** Singapore - a coronavirus bellwether **** Singapore is a good place to watch as a bellwether of what path the coronavirus emergency is going to take for several reasons.
So, putting everything together, Singapore can provide an early warning for what will happen in the rest of the world. **** **** Japan - another bellwether **** Japan is a bellwether in another sense. Japan has over 59 confirmed coronavirus cases -- not counting the 454 cases that were identified in the Diamond Princess cruise ship. New cases continue to emerge in prefectures around the country, and some analysts are expressing fear that the infections will not be controlled until infections are widespread. So Japan is good country to watch to see how a developed Western country deals with a spreading coronavirus epidemic, and possibly a pandemic. Japan has canceled a number of international events because of the virus. The Summer Olympics is scheduled to be in Tokyo, and if that event is canceled, it will cause long-range damage to Japan's economy. Update: As this is being written, reports indicate a large outbreak in South Korea. This may also be a bellwether. **** **** Coronavirus in Africa **** Countries like Singapore and Japan are developed countries with sophisticated medical services infrastructure, capable of handling a coronavirus outbreak -- although that claim is currently being tested in both countries. But there are many countries with no such infrastructure, including many African, Mideast and Asian countries. Africa appears to be extremely safe, since there have been almost no reported cases there. But that's because no one is being tested. If you don't look for cases, then you won't find any cases. And in fact, Africa has a number of Chinese enclaves, thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As of Feb 11, Africa does not have any confirmed cases, but suspected patients have been quarantined in Ethiopia, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire, and Botswana. The World Health Organization is providing support to Africa, and is providing prioritized report to 13 countries with Chinese enclaves, since there is frequent travel between these countries and China. The 13 countries area: Algeria, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. There's still an ongoing Ebola crisis in eastern DRC, in the middle of a continuing ethnic war. International NGOs have been successful in preventing the further spread of Ebola by standard techniques such as contact tracing and quarantining people with symptoms, and aggressive use of newly developed vaccines. African officials are saying that the same techniques will be used to control coronavirus outbreaks. However, there are significant differences. Coronavirus spreads much more easily than Ebola, and there's no coronavirus vaccine. Few people believe that a coronavirus outbreak will be contained. **** **** War zones - Africa and Mideast **** There are several ongoing wars in Africa and the Mideast -- DRC, Central African Republic, Mali, Cameroon, Yemen, Syria. There are smaller ongoing clashes in other countries. Sooner or later, there will be a coronavirus outbreak in one of these war zones. **** **** The explosive situation in Idlib, Syria **** I want to call particular attention to war in the Idlib province in northwestern Syria. I've been writing about this situation for several years on the Generational Dynamics web site and forum. This started as the Syria civil war in 2011, and it's evolved to a final explosive confrontation in Idlib. There are four million people, mostly women and children, packed into Idlib. On Monday, Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, the worst war criminal so far this century, announced that his army will mop up the rest of Idlib soon. On Wednesday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech threatening both Syria's president al-Assad and his ally, Russia's president Putin. In the meantime, al-Assad's army is pushing a million people, mostly women and children, towards to the border with Turkey. It has just emerged that there's a cluster of coronavirus cases in Qoms, Iran, with two deaths. It won't be long before these cases spread into Iraq and Syria, and could start spreading among those million people in Idlib. And then either Turkey and Syria will be at war, or else Turkey will open the border and allow those million refugees with coronavirus to flow into Europe. There are hard deadlines and hard positions here. It seems unlikely that anyone will back down, and so this situation is expected to explode by March 1. **** **** The Future of Coronavirus **** The coronavirus is spreading around the globe, and it is not known today whether most countries will be able to control their local outbreaks, or whether there will be a global pandemic. These questions can't be answered today, so as I wrote in the past, it's best to wait until early March to make new business decisions. Economic activity has almost come to a standstill in China, as the virus has affected global tourism, trade, manufacturing and export/import. With many Chinese businesses shut down, supply chains have been disrupted. Companies and countries with a high dependency on Chinese components and parts will continue to suffer. **** **** V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial crisis **** Politicians, analysts and economists who are hoping for a "V-Shaped Recovery" are making the same mistake that they made after the 2008 financial crisis. Once worst of the 2008 financial crisis ended, everyone assumed that things would return to "normal." Economists would look at their 1980s vintage economics models, and conclude that there would be an extremely quick economic recovery. What they overlooked is that people in the 1980s, during a generational Unraveling era, behavr very differently than people in the 2000s, during a generational Crisis era. That particular difference in behavior can be measured by the "Velocity of Money." This measures how quickly ordinary people spend money they've received, versus saving the money in the bank. I haven't updated this graph since 2017, but it shows the Velocity of Money since 1919: Velocity of money, 1919 to 2017 (St. Louis Fed Fred Graph #366117) =// https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?category_id=&graph_id=282038 =// https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?category_id=&graph_id=366117 As you can see from this graph, the velocity started falling in 2000, when the Nasdaq stock market crash occurred, and then started falling very sharply since the 2008 financial crisis, and hasn't stopped falling. This indicates that the Nasdaq crash and the financial crisis were events that permanently changed the behavior of the current generations of people. They are permanently reluctant to spend money. So the 1980s economic models are completely, totally wrong. So I believe that we can apply this same lesson to the coronavirus crisis. The assumption behind the "V-Shaped Recovery" is that as soon as the virus is more or less contained, businesses will quickly return to their pre-virus levels of activity. That may happen if the virus is contained quickly over the summer. But if there's a larger and longer-lasting crisis, or a pandemic, then I believe that most people will be extremely reluctant to behave as they did before the virus spread, and I believe that the economic impact could be far more serious. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, Wuhan Virology Institute, Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory, Anthony Fauci, National Institutes of Health, World Health Organization, WHO, Centers for Disease Control, CDC, Alex Azar, Health and Human Services, HHS, Li Wenliang, Xi Jinping, Xu Zhiyong, New Citizens Movement, Taiping Rebellion, Mao's Communist Revolution, Singapore, Japan, Diamond Princess, Summer Olympics, South Korea, Africa, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, DRC, Central African Republic, Mali, Cameroon, Yemen, Iran, Qoms, Iraq, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Velocity of Money Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-21-2020 ** 21-Feb-2020 World View: Velocity of money richard5za Wrote:> John, I was an economics major but that was in 1968 so perhaps I That's an interesting analysis. You're right about the formula, though there's an extra factor: "Inflation rate X GDP = Money supply X velocity". It's the fall in velocity that explains why inflation has remained low. With regard to the size of the money supply, we don't live in 1800s, when the only kind of money was printed money, or even in the 1600s, when the only kind of money was gold coins and tulip certificates. In 2008, the Bank of International Settlements said that there are over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit derivatives and other structured finance securities in the portfolios of financial institutions around the world. Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by the US government. If your $50K home increases in value during a real estate bubble to $500K, and you refinance your home and borrow $400K against your home, then you can spend that money on cars, groceries, sex, or whatever you want. It's the same money. So the size of the money supply has actually been falling substantially since 2008, and central banks "printing" money has not really added to the money supply at all, but instead has replaced the money in the money supply that disappeared as the bubble collapsed. The only real point I was making was that a major crisis can change generational behavior permanently, whether it's a financial crisis or a coronavirus crisis. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-22-2020 (02-21-2020, 04:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Feb-2020 World View: Velocity of money The people getting the money aren't spending it or investing it in plant and equipment. A real-estate bubble? Forget it; too many people have been burned. We are unlikely to see big new (at least in the aggregate) investment in real estate until the Crisis ends. It is easier to profiteer from shortages that result from a gross imbalance of the economy (economic activity concentrated in a few areas). Let's put it this way: the local economy is overheated in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, but Fresno is in a depression. New York, Washington, and Boston are fabulously active in their economies, but places like Hartford, Springfield MA, Scranton, and Baltimore are in the dumps. Need I discuss Appalachia and the Rust Belt? Velocity of money relates to consumption and investment, and when both collapse, velocity does too. I can excuse WWII because America was not going to supply private cars, new housing, or expensive consumer goods when it had bigger concerns. MV=nPT explains much (M is money, V is velocity, P is price level, and T is the size of an average transaction). Both MV and nRT express GDP. We are not going to have a housing bubble; we have been burned. There is much private debt that will not be paid because people lack the means of paying it. Private debt from medical costs to debt for worthless education to investments that are both unprofitable and unmarketable are themselves bubbles. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus is here Guest Wrote:> I live in Korea. The Wuhan virus is now just two blocks away from richard5za Wrote:> You have my heart felt good wishes. Go well. I live in Africa and Good luck to both of you. Yes, I've been following the news of how Covid has spread from the southern city of Daegu across the country. Apparently it spread because of a large religious service of the Shincheonji religious group. Here in America, the mainstream news media are almost totally ignoring Covid-19, in favor of really important issues, such as those related to the phrase "horse-faced lesbian." CNN, for example, a network that hates religion since they think that any mention of religion might benefit the loathed Trump, is blaming the coronavirus spread in South Korea on the Shincheonji religious group, which the BBC refers to as "a fringe religious movement." They would like you to believe that it's the "fringe religious movement," rather than the sainted CCP, that's causing the spread. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/22/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-religious-group-intl/index.html As for me, I live in Cambridge-Boston, which is an international travel hub, to China and everywhere else, and I live next door to MIT, which has students from all countries, including China. There are probably 20-30 people walking about Boston right now with undetected coronavirus. My apartment building has hundreds of students from Asia. I go to the Roche Brothers grocery store in Kendall Square every day and mingle with the people there, and purchase food prepared locally. I've been reading and watching a lot of reports, and my personal opinion is that a pandemic is coming. In the article that I posted yesterday (Planning for Coronavirus), I didn't want to say so explicitly, since doing so would be alarmist, but I tried to suggest it by saying that the hoped-for "V-shaped recovery" wasn't going to happen. So it's quite possible that the world will look very different a couple of months from now. As for myself, I'm an "elderly" person, so if I get coronavirus, then I'll probably die, hopefully quickly. That would actually be a convenient way to die and, as the old saying goes, we all have to die of something. Good luck to everyone. Wash your hands frequently, sneeze into your sleeve, and don't touch your face. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 22-Feb-2020 World View: The End of the World As I just wrote in another thread, I personally believe that we're headed for a pandemic. However, Coronavirus is not going to bring about the end of the world. Even in the worst case scenario, where everyone in the world becomes infected, the death rate is still around 2%, which means that 98% will recover. Actually that 2% is only of serious cases. Even if we assume that everyone in the world becomes infected, many people will have mild cases. So that 2% figure is more like 1%. This will be a major global crisis, and it may trigger a recession, or it may trigger a global financial crisis, or it may trigger WW III, but it's not the end of the world. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 22-Feb-2020 World View: HTS aeden Wrote:> I tend to agree with a side of blow back.[/url] The problem is that al-Assad is using about 20-30,000 HTS fighters as a reason to declare that all 4 million people in Idlib -- more than half of whom are children, and more than half of the rest are women -- are all terrorists, to be exterminated like cockroaches. So al-Assad plans to exterminate four million people. In America, that would be like Trump deciding to bomb and exterminate all blacks because of Black Lives Matter. That's also the same reasoning that Hitler used to exterminate the Jews. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Spanish Flu utahbob Wrote:> Time to put your tin foil hats on: Well, there's been big ethnic war going on in eastern DRC for years, and the arrival of a new Ebola outbreak hasn't slowed it down, but in fact has made Ebola an additional weapon of war. The things that make this possible are: (1) The difficulty in transmitting Ebola, requiring close physical contact, and (2) aggressive use of newly developed vaccines. Neither of those things apply with Covid-19. It can be transmitted through the air, and there are no vaccines. With regard to the Spanish Flu ending WW I, note that Russia and the Mideast were in a generational Recovery era, with no desire for another war, and Europe and America were in a generational Unraveling era, also with no desire for war. Today, much of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and many countries are actively planning for wars of revenge. Army generals would have to have ways of isolating coronavirus infections, but that would stop them from waging war. Also, coronavirus may become a weapon of war, as some people believe has already happened for the Chinese. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Supply Chain Guest Wrote:> I'm guessing the real threat is the break of the supply chain. Of all disasters surrounding coronavirus, the supply chain issue is probably the best understood, and the earliest to fix. A closed business goes bankrupt, and so everyone will be looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits, etc. -- to get things going again. When I said that there would be no "V-Shaped Recovery," I didn't mean that there would be no recovery at all. I would expect most companies to be at least partially back in business by summer. |