Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-23-2020 ** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Used-up people JCP Wrote:> I have thought about this too. Most of the dead seemed to be over Not just in China. This is a good way to get rid of used-up people in every society. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-24-2020 ** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus vs Spanish Flu Navigator Wrote:> The Spanish flu ran its course in about 2 years. Because of modern There are lots of reasons why coronavirus today could be worse than Spanish Flu a century ago, but there is one thing we have today that they didn't have back then that's worth noting: Today we have the ability to develop a vaccine, and there may be vaccines in production in 6-18 months. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-24-2020 ** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Getting coronavirus early Navigator Wrote:> It may actually be a blessing to get infected by it early on, According to the reports that I've seen, getting coronavirus doesn't give you immunity, and you can be reinfected. In fact, as I briefly mentioned in my "Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)" a couple of days ago, "However, those who develop severe cases and survive often have damaged heart muscles, and many have developed heart attacks." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-24-2020 ** 24-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus Updates Guest Wrote:> I'm in Korea. Here is an update, for those who may be interested. Thanks for the update from Korea. Right now Korea tops the list of the countries of greatest international concern, the other two being Iran an Italy. Iran doesn't (yet) have as many cases as South Korea, but apparently Iran's medical facilities are already overwhelmed by the 50-100 cases it already has. It looks like Iran is next in line for a huge surge, just like South Korea has been experiencing. Iran is also being isolated, with Turkey, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Afghanistan all closing their borders to Iran. There's also talk of Italy having to close its borders to the rest of Europe's Schengen Zone. Anyway, you've provided an update on how you're trying to survive. I hope you succeed. So now I'll give my own update. All my life, whenever I've had the flu, I would take a big dose of Nyquil and go to bed with a heating pad, and usually the flu would be gone by morning. I was sometimes left with an ordinary cold, but I could avoid even that with massive doses of Vitamin C. So now Wuhan Coronavirus is coming over the hill towards me. I live in Kendall Square, Cambridge, next door to MIT, where there are thousands of Asian students milling around, many living in my apartment building. So I'm assuming I'm going to get it, and since I'm an "elderly" person, I assume I'm going to die, which means that I have about a month left to live, under these assumptions. What should I do? Earlier today I bought a new supply of Nyquil. When the virus strikes, I'll augment my usual anti-flu strategy, and take one dose of Nyquil after another and just stay in bed sleeping. There are two possibilities: * I'll recover and wake up, and I'll have survived the Coronavirus. * Or, I'll die in my sleep, which is a very convenient way to die. So anyway, that's my plan. I don't know if it will actually happen that way since, as the old saying goes, "Life is what happens while you're making plans." But if I update my plan, I'll post an update. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-24-2020 ** 24-Feb-2020 World View: Heating system John Wrote:> So now Wuhan Coronavirus is coming over the hill towards me. I Something else occurred to me. My apartment building has hundreds of apartments, mostly filled with Asian students. The building was built in 1950 and it's a very solid building. But the apartments are all centrally heated by a common forced air heating system. That means that all hundreds of apartments are breathing the same air. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-24-2020 The common cold is also a coronavirus, so vitamin C should still be effective in reducing symptoms and duration. It seems that respiratory symptoms are what is causing death, so reducing the symptoms could be quite useful. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-25-2020 ** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Vitamin C and Coronavirus (02-24-2020, 08:40 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The common cold is also a coronavirus, so vitamin C should still Lol! If you're right, this would be quite a dramatic discovery. A lot of companies are trying to develop therapeutic drugs for coronavirus, and the drug Ramdesevir by Gilead is being called the most promising so far. So imagine how many red faces there will be if it turns out that the best coronavirus therapy is Vitamin C?
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-25-2020 ** 24-Feb-2020 World View: CDC raises S. Korea warning to Level 3 Guest Wrote:> Mine, too. Within the last few hours, the CDC has raised the CDC warning level for South Korea to Level 3, the highest level, meaning that no one should travel to S. Korea, unless absolutely essential. As of Monday, the coronavirus has killed at least 2,600 people and infected more than 80,000 people in 35 countries worldwide. Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: Quote: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Afghanistan,
Note that there are almost no cases in Africa or South America. That's because nobody is being tested. ---- Sources: -- COVID-19: CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to South Korea http://outbreaknewstoday.com/covid-19-cdc-recommends-that-travelers-avoid-all-nonessential-travel-to-south-korea-99406/ (OutbreakNewsToday, 24-Feb-2020) -- Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Globa https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html (CDC, 24-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-25-2020 ** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus timeline Navigator Wrote: There's actually a much simpler explanation for why so many more people are dying inside China than outside. A rough timeline in China is that we know that the CCP became aware of the coronavirus in October, and we know that the CCP began building hospitals in Wuhan in November, and we know that in December the virus was only beginning to spread in Wuhan and that people who talked about it were brutally suppressed by the CCP (as illustrated by the death of Dr. Li), and we know that it was only around January 20 that the CCP finally considered the outbreak serious enough to admit it publicly, and begin draconian measures. Outside of China, it was in late January that the first cases were found in the West. So the West has been 3-4 months behind the Chinese in outbreaks of the virus. So today, the West is where China was in late November, only at the very beginning of the crisis. That explains why the death rate outside of China is lower. Another reason is the obvious one that the West has found ways to care for patients that weren't available to the Chinese 2-3 months ago. That makes a lot more sense than the wild paranoia of a young kid. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-25-2020 (02-25-2020, 09:34 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Vitamin C and Coronavirus Vitamin C is off patent, so it won't be (re)discovered. Heck, the medical establishment hates Pauling so much that whenever vitamin C is shown to be good for something, they say it's "antioxidants" rather than just vitamin C. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-25-2020 ** 25-Feb-2020 World View: San Francisco declares coronavirus emergency Within the last few hours, San Francisco mayor London Breed declared a local coronavirus emergency. According to Breed's statement: Quote:> "Although there are still zero confirmed cases in San San Francisco has several reasons to be concerned. One is that San Francisco has a world famous Chinatown: Quote:> "A western street with eastern manners, The other major issue is that the city has been in the news a great deal recently because the streets are filled with homeless people, along with associated stuff like needles, filth and disease, the perfect breeding ground for coronavirus. ---- Source: -- San Francisco / SF Mayor London Breed Declares Local Emergency Amid Coronavirus Outbreak https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor-london-breed-declared-local-emergency-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/2241796/ (NBCBayArea, 25-Feb-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-26-2020 *** 27-Feb-20 World View -- India's 1947 Partition War being refought as Delhi riots spread This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi **** Aftermath of Hindu-Muslim ethnic clashes in Delhi on Wednesday (AFP) With all that's going on in the world today -- an increasingly explosive situation in Idlib, Syria, with al-Assad's army threatening full-scale genocide and Turkey threatening war with Syria, and a growing coronavirus crisis in multiple countries -- it's easy to ignore a growing ethnic conflict in India. At least 27 people were killed and hundreds injured in three days ethnic riots between Hindus and Muslims in Delhi, India's capital city. In most cases, the violence was by Hindu nationalist mobs targeting Muslims, beating unarmed Muslim men, and destroying or burning Muslim homes and businesses. Muslims claim that the police did nothing to stop the violence, and Hindus claim that some Hindus were attacked as well. It's described as the worst communal violence in Delhi in decades. The protests were triggered by a new law, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) that became law in December. According to the Indian government, the purpose of the law is to protect persecuted ethnic minorities in neighboring countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh), by allowing members of the ethnic minorities to apply for citizenship in India. ( "17-Dec-19 World View -- India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War" ) So that sounds perfectly reasonable, until you begin to understand its consequences. It applies to persecuted minorities -- Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh or Buddhist -- but not to Muslims, since Muslims are not minorities in the neighbor countries. Opponents of the law point out that ethnic minorities that happen to be Muslim are also excluded, referring specifically to the Rohingyas in Bangladesh, as well as Ahmadis and Sufis in Pakistan. Starting in December, there were large anti-CAA protests, and protesters included by Muslims and Hindus, complaining that the law undermines India's secular traditions. However, as the weeks have passed, Muslims in the protests have been increasingly targeted by Hindutva (Hindu nationalists) with inflammatory speeches and expletives and mobs mouthing racist anti-Muslim slogans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads the Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), are being accused by activists of inciting the violence against Muslim. Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement began in 1923, led by Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar Savarkar), mostly as a movement against British colonization. (See "'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians" from 2008.) Modi became associated with Hindutva violence in 2002, as Governor of the Gujarat province, when he allegedly looked the other way when a train with Hindutva activists attacked a group of Muslims, triggering sectarian violence that led to hundreds of deaths and displacing more than 150,000 people, mostly Muslim. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister" ) Many in the media are also comparing the current anti-Muslim riots to a major 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhin, in which more than 3,000 Sikhs were killed. **** **** Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War **** It's been 73 years since India's last generational crisis war, the 1947 Partition War that followed when the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan. The idea was that Hindus and Sikhs would occupy India, and Muslims would occupy Pakistan. But unfortunately the partition wasn't "clean," in the sense that there were both Hindus and Muslims on both sides of the partition line. The result was one of the most massive and bloodiest battle of the 20th century, the 1947 Partition War. The preceding generational crisis war, when India was a British colony and there was no Pakistan, was the 1857 anti-British rebellion, also also called India's First War of Independence from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')" ) So the 1857 rebellion and the 1947 Partition War were the last two generational crisis wars, and India is overdue for a new one. The current communal violence in Delhi is extremely disturbing, and in this generational Crisis era, it is possible that the Delhi violence will escalate into war. Dear Reader, if you get the feeling that the world is coming apart at the seams, you're right. That's what happens during a generational Crisis era. Winston Churchill referred to a similar period prior to WW II as "The Gathering Storm." We're seeing a "gathering storm" today, and it's possible that the growing Delhi violence in India will be the trigger for a much larger war. **** **** The generational 'Democide Pattern' **** As I've developed generational theory and Generational Dynamics, I've seen a particular pattern occur over and over in dozens of countries. I've decided to adopt the name "Democide Pattern" for this pattern, even though the original author of the term "democide," R. J. Rummel, used it to mean mass slaughter of a segment of a country's population by the government. I'm using the same word in an expanded sense, to include things like torture, rape, jailings, executions, and discrimination targeting a segment of the population. This pattern occurs in countries in the decades following a generational crisis war which is also a civil war. Regular readers know that I've written several times about the differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level. In the past I've described in general terms what happens, but now I'm using the term "Democide Pattern" to describe the particular behaviors that occur. After a generational crisis ethnic or tribal civil war ends, the winning side gets control of the government. There's usually some sort of peace agreement at the end of the war, where the winning tribe promises not to discriminate against the losing tribe, but that agreement always falls apart when the losing tribe begins to gain political power. I'll write more about this at a later date, but here is a summary of the behaviors that we see in country after country:
India has adopted most of these behaviors targeting Muslims. A standard technique is for the government to continually discriminate and incite violence against the losing tribe, in order to provoke some kind of violent or terrorist act in response. This provides the excuse for the government to collective punishment against everyone in the losing tribe. The extreme example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. But I've also described the same phenomenon, with varying levels of violence, with Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hun Sen in Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka. Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Delhi, Citizenship Amendment Act, CAA, Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh, Buddhist, Muslim, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ahmadis, Sufis, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Hindutva, Hindu nationalists, Gujarat, Sikhs, Partition War, War of Independence, Democide pattern, R. J. Rummel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2020 ** 26-Feb-2020 World View: Chain reaction Higgenbotham Wrote:> The reason this is working is because the book is thin, people are Words like "trapped" raise a red flag for me. A couple of days ago, I heard an analyst on TV say something about airline stocks falling because they were owned by hedge funds that had to sell them off to cover shorts. I favor the "chain reaction" theory of when a stock market panic occurs. It happens when many traders simultaneously are forced to sell to cover shorts or loans. When one trader is forced to sell, the stock prices go down, resulting in a margin call for other traders, creating a chain reaction and vicious cycle. The Fed is prepared to flood the banks with liquidity when something like that is happening, but if the chain reaction is international, the the Fed won't be able to stop it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2020 ** 27-Feb-2020 World View: India's history Goose Wrote:> Been reading GDWVN for a while now and have read both of your I agree with what you say, and in fact in 2016 I was going to write a book on India and I have a folder on my computer containing hundreds of articles and books on the history of India, but I didn't have a chance to finish the book. So I understand what you're saying, but I don't understand where you believe you're disagreeing with me. Perhaps you could explain further. Goose Wrote:> On another subject, the Chicom flu. Maybe the Iranians can get Ah yes, "Chicom flu" is an interesting name for it. Iran is in a great deal of trouble because the clerics do nothing but suck up money and make demands that the other parts of the government are afraid to ignore. The country is wasting money on foreign adventures, Iran's interference in Iraq is strongly opposed by many Iraqis, they shot down a passenger plan, they were caught by surprise by the coronavirus, they're still kowtowing to the Chinese and refusing to end flights from China, their ministers are infected, and they're still in denial about the seriousness of the epidemic. The leadership in both China and Iran will be blamed on ineffective response to the epidemic and will be threatened with "regime change," and the leadership in both China and Iran will find a way to blame the United States. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2020 ** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus and Smoking The 1918 Spanish flu infected 1/3 of world's population, killed 50 million people. The 2009 swine flu killed 575,000 people. Coronavirus - 78,000 infections so far, 2,800 dead so far. 80% of infections are mild. Here is something completely different that I've never heard before, from an interview on al-Jazeera with Dr. Vin Gupta, University of Washington Medical Center. This provides a partial explanation of some other mysteries -- why the epidemic is so much worse in China than elsewhere: Respiratory pathogens -- SARS, Coronavirus, Avian flu -- are geographically affected. They take root where people smoke a lot. And the Chinese have the highest smoking prevalence rate in the world, and it's not even close amongst men. Women in China get exposure to second hand smoke at levels you wouldn't believe. So there's poor lung health in China. Once it takes root in China, since it's a respiratory illness, it can spread to other countries. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2020 ** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Turkey in crisis after Syrian airstrike kills 33 Turkish soldiers
Turkey's government, led by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held an emergency meeting of ministers and senior security officials on Thursday evening to decide how to respond after an airstrike by the Bashar al-Assad regime in Idlib, Syria, killed dozens of Turkish soldiers, with reports giving the number between 22 and 33. Saturday is the deadline day that Erdogan has specified for weeks for Syrian forces to retreat to a previously agreed ceasefire line, behind Turkey's military outposts in Idlib, also part of the same agreement. But now, two days before the deadline, Syria's airstrikes are a major escalation in the war, and a "casus belli" that Turkey will not be able to ignore, even if it wanted to. Since Iran and Russia are backing Syria, this could logically lead to war between Turkey and Russia, for the first time since World War I. However, in recent speeches and actions by Erdogan, it seems clear that Turkey would not hesitate to fight Syrian forces to drive them back, all the way to Damascus if necessary, but that Turkey does not want a war with Russia. Russia, on the other hand, is aggressively backing Syrian forces in Idlib, apparently with the expectation that Turkey will retreat and give al-Assad control of all of Idlib, with resulting slaughter and ethnic cleansing of millions of al-Assad's Sunni Arab political enemies, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of whom are women. Al-Assad calls them all "terrorists," and considers them to be cockroaches to be exterminated. Russia and Syria have both been specifically targeting schools, hospitals and residential homes in order to force the ethnic cleansing as quickly and thoroughly as possible. So Turkey does not want war with Russia, and Russia does not want war with Turkey, but powerful generational forces are taking control, and pushing them to war. If we compare these leaders, you may not like Erdogan, but he's the most honest of the politicians since he takes credit or blame for what he does. Bashar al-Assad is a vicious psychopathic monster, but he's also honest, in that he makes it clear that he has no hesitation to slaughter millions of innocent Sunni Arab women and children in Idlib, and become a war criminal. To him they are, after all, just cockroaches. As usual, Vladimir Putin never opens his mouth except that total bullshit pours out onto the floor. He says he wants peace in Idlib, but what he says is always garbage. He couldn't care less about peace. So what does he want? According to analyst Pavel Felgenhauer: Quote: "It seems the Kremlin has seriously underestimated This is also my own conclusion, although I would add to this conclusion that it doesn't matter what Putin wants, since there are powerful generational forces driving the situation. My conclusion also is that Putin's fantasy for victory in Idlib is that Turkey is finally forced to open the border and allow millions of Syrian refugees to cross into Turkey, and then continue traveling on into Europe. Putin would consider millions of Syrian refugees, many with coronavirus infections, pouring into Europe to be a major victory over Europe. So it seems that all the relevant parties have made irrevesible choices, and we should see the results over the weekend. ---- Sources: -- 22 Turkish soldiers killed in Syrian gov't air raid in Idlib https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/turkish-soldiers-killed-air-raid-syria-idlib-200227211119672.html (Al-Jazeera, 27-Feb-2020) -- Syria war: 22 Turkish troops killed in airstrike in Idlib https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717 (BBC, 27-Feb-2020) -- At least 34 Turkish soldiers killed during airstrikes in Idlib https://www.arabnews.com/node/1634221/middle-east (Arab News, 27-Feb-2020) -- Turkey strikes Russian, Assad regime bastion Latakia, other targets in Syria with missiles https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkey-hits-russian-assad-regime-bastion-latakia-in-western-syria/news (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020) -- Turkey will no longer stop Syrian migrant flow to Europe, official says https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkey-will-no-longer-stop-syrian-migrant-flow-to-europe-official-says/news (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020) -- Idlib Syria / Russia and Turkey Drift Toward War https://jamestown.org/program/russia-and-turkey-drift-toward-war/ (Jamestown, 27-Feb-2020) ---- Related Articles: ** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200211.htm#e200211 ** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200209.htm#e200209 ** 22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140122.htm#e140122 ** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e151125.htm#e151125 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-27-2020 ** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Black Monday Higgenbotham Wrote:> Your post from last night outlines what appears to have happened If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a bloodbath ("Black Monday"). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-27-2020 The coronavirus is at most a pretext for this weeks' decline in the stock market. It was only a matter of time: It's our old pal, Mr. Inverted Yield Curve! In good times for business prospects, short-term yields are decidedly lower than long-term yields. Business entities that most need to borrow (like firms on life support and highly-speculative activities) find themselves in deep trouble. I'm guessing that savings are low in contrast to overall debt... maybe real wages are low. Workers who get paid adequately save. Speculators and companies on life support borrow profusely until they can no longer do so. Companies that cannot justify their leverage... fail. People working for such entities lose their jobs, and consumer spending plummets. Bad debts become commonplace. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-28-2020 (02-27-2020, 10:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a I don't see how covering shorts can cause a crash, even selling to cover shorts. Covering a short is a buy action, so you're buying as much as you're selling. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 02-28-2020 (02-27-2020, 08:24 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: My conclusion also is that Putin's fantasy for victory in Idlib is I think Erdogan has backed Turkey into a terrible position. The S-400 purchase and the Turkish actions regarding Libya have upset the US. I don't think it's clear that the S-400s will work against Russian aircraft, and because of that purchase, they're not going to get US missiles. I'd love to see Erdogan fight, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he won't back down. |