Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-21-2020 *** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** The history of the 1918 Spanish flu **** A man wearing a mask uses a pump to spray an unknown 'anti-flu' substance in the United Kingdom, following the Spanish flu pandemi (Getty) I've now written several articles and almost daily reports, on my web site and in the Generational Dynamics forum, on the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis, and unfortunately the most pessimistic of the predictions are coming true on a daily basis. In this article, I'm comparing Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, and showing that there's no material difference between the two pandemics. Using round numbers, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 infected about 500 million people worldwide, almost one-third of the world's population. It killed about 2% of the world's population, or 36 million people. The Spanish flu (which, incidentally, originated in Kansas, not Spain) first appeared in March 1918. American troops carried the virus with them when they went to war in Europe, and it spread quickly to England, France, Spain and Italy. However, it wasn't much more deadly than the ordinary seasonal flu at first. Cases of flu dropped off in the summer of 1918, and it was hoped that the virus had run its course. However, a second wave of the Spanish flu began in August, and the second wave was far deadlier than the first. The deadliest month was October 1918. Tens of millions of people worldwide were killed during the next few months. **** **** Saving lives with mitigation strategies **** The Spanish flu death rate in America was far lower than the death rate for the world as a whole. The Spanish flu killed about 2% of the world population, but killed only 675,000 Americans, or 0.7% of the American population. Why was the death rate for Americans so much lower? The reason is that Americans were using the same containment and mitigation strategies that are being recommended today. People wore face masks. WW I victory parades and events were canceled. Schools were closed. Theaters and businesses were closed. There are anecdotal stories about people who were forcibly locked into their homes to prevent them from infecting other people. In these stories, the patient would lower a basket with a rope from a second story window, and his neighbors would fill it with food. Containment and mitigation strategies are being used today for the same reason. The phrase "social distancing" is on everyone's lips. Tens of millions of Americas are in states that have been "locked down" in the last few days, meaning that they're told to stay in their homes. Those people will not be getting infected with Covid-19, nor will they be infecting other people. **** **** Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu **** It's always tempting to believe that we're so far advanced and so sophisticated today, that anything older than yesterday is ancient and out of date and only of interest to historians and Boomers. But in fact, it's very hard to see any material difference between the 1918 Spanish Flu and today's Wuhan Coronavirus, except that today we have some electronic devices like ventilators for treatment. However, everything else is the same:
in 1918, even the same drug is being used. So far, today's Covid-19 pandemic appears to be materially the same as the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. The two won't really diverge until a vaccine becomes available, and that's not expected until late in 2021. **** **** Alternative strategies: 'Burn Through' and 'Herd Immunity' **** I described the containment and mediation strategies in earlier articles, and their purpose in "flattening the curve." ( "17-Mar-20 World View -- Stock market plunges 13% on Monday, as investors begin to accept reality" ) In the containment strategy, the country tracks and tests people and uses contact tracing to identify infected people, and isolate them. When that fails, the mitigation strategy is used, where schools and stores are closed, and large gatherings are illegal, in order to reduce the number of infections. I'm using the phrase "burn through" to describe a strategy where no mitigation is done, and the infections are allowed to take their course. A variation of this strategy that I've described in the past is the "Herd Immunity" strategy, where all the old people and people with existing health conditions are first locked up for safety, and then the infection is allowed to spread through the population, after which the old people can be let out. There are a number of people on TV and on the internet who say that the mitigation strategies we're using -- closing all the schools, businesses and restaurants, for example -- are panic reactions that are worse than the disease. Many of these people say that they would like to see the "burn through" strategy used, believing that it would only kill elderly people who, as one person wrote to me, "they are going to die anyway." Some people in the Generational Dynamics forum expressed the same view. One wrote: <QUOTE>"I think shutting down the economy to keep drug addicts and elderly people alive who will all be dead within five years anyway is stupid. I'm an older person (70) and I am willing to take my chances if it means my grandchildren won't have to live in abject poverty for the rest of their lives."<END QUOTE> Another person agreed: <QUOTE>"I think that in general terms you are quite right. We are doing an inordinate amount of damage to our economies in order to save a very small percentage of the population. ... We cannot cover the cost of intensive care needed for say 5% of the population. That would be about 15 million people in the US in ICU for a couple of weeks. Panic is causing drastic measures that we just cannot afford."<END QUOTE> This is the kind of policy that might be possible today in China or Russia, but there's no chance that any Western democracy today would adopt a policy of letting one group of people die, even old people, any more than it would adopt a policy of allowing all blacks or all Jews to die. But it's more than that. The mitigation strategies are not just trying "to save a very small percentage of the population." If we look at the Spanish flu figures, we can see the difference. Most of the world in 1918 used the "burn through" strategy, and 2% of the world population died. But in America, only 0.7% of the population died, and that can be attributed to the mitigation strategies. Using round numbers, 45 million Americans get the seasonal flu each year. 200,000 are hospitalized, and the number of deaths is roughly 0.1% x 45 million = 45,000. If we use the "burn through" strategy with Covid-19, and just let it spread without taking any remediation steps, then there will be roughly 200 million infections. The number of people hospitalized will be roughly 20% x 200 million = 40 million. The number of deaths will be 2% x 200 million or 4 million. So just leading Covid-19 spread without mitigation would be a lot worse than just letting a few old people die. At the very least, hospitals and funeral homes would be overwhelmed by a factor of ten, and there would be dead bodies in the streets and in dump sites. This is the not the direction that America or any Western country wants to go. That's not to say that remediation is an easy out. If we assume the 0.7% figure from the Spanish flu, and apply it to the American population of 300+ million, we still get over two million deaths. This is a speculative figure, and with curve flattening, the number of deaths would be spread over a long period of time. **** **** Why the Covid-19 crisis won't be over by summer **** A lot of people would like to believe that the Covid-19 crisis will be over by summer, or even earlier, in April or May. This is a total fantasy. Let's take a look at some of the reasons why this crisis will last well into next year.
belief that the virus crisis will end this summer is the most speculative assumption of all. **** **** The most dangerous problem: Crowding and poverty **** There is one more issue, and this perhaps the most dangerous issue at all. There are deeply overcrowded refugee camps in Bangladesh, Greece, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela and other countries. Sooner or later, there will be a Covid-19 outbreak in each of these camps. People in these camps are crowded together, living in filth. There's almost no water at all, and certainly no clean water. If there's a Covid-19 outbreak in one of these camps, then it will quickly burn through the entire camp, and fleeing refugees will spread it to other countries. In fact, any place where crowding and poverty are so great that containment and mitigation strategies will not work represent a risk to an entire region. If someone lives in a small home with a large family, and must go to work every day to feed his family that day or they'll starve, then "self-isolation" and "self-quarantine" don't even make sense. He'll go to work anyway, and risk contaminating the entire neighborhood. This is true in many "supercities," from Mumbai to Lagos to Mexico City. In each of these cases, attempts will be made to blockade these cities and refugee camps, to trap people inside and keep them from leaving. But this will be unsuccessful, if only because the virus will create a massive humanitarian disaster, and outside world will demand some kind of relief. These situations probably will trigger regional wars, and this may be the scenario that leads to World War III. Finally, another major problem area is that many prisons, even in Western countries, are overcrowded, and the spread of virus could kill many inmates. As a result, there are calls to release large numbers of prisoners. This is already a major political issue in many countries, including the United States. **** **** The search for a vaccine **** It seems that hundreds of companies around the world are working to create a Covid-19 vaccine. There are new developments almost every day, and a couple of new candidates have already gone into first phase testing. But every expert that I've heard says the same thing: these vaccines will have to go through multiple test phases to make sure that they're safe and effective. You don't want to be saved from Covid-19 by a vaccine that kills you anyway. Every expert I've heard says that it will be well into 2021 before any vaccine can be widely deployed. In this article, I've compared the Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, and I've shown that there's really no difference at all. The remediation techniques are the same, the medicines are the same, and there's even no vaccine for now. Covid-19 is being handled in the same low-tech way as the Spanish flu. So those who want to understand how Covid-19 will affect the world should study the history of the Spanish flu. ---- Sources:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, Spanish flu, Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve, Burn Through, malaria, quinine, chloroquine, containment, mitigation, China, South Korea, Bangladesh, Greece, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela, Mumbai, Lagos Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 03-22-2020 Good to see you back, John. I got worried enough to check out your forum, and was relieved to see you posting there as recently as Friday. While some states are doing what they call "lockdowns", they aren't really true lockdowns yet, as far as I can tell: people are still allowed to go to work. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2020 ** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Posting (03-22-2020, 12:07 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Good to see you back, John. I got worried enough to check out your Thanks for worrying about me. My time hasn't come yet, but living near Kendall Square Cambridge with thousands of Asian students walking around, my time may be close. And since no one is willing to pay me, everything I write is worthless anyway, and it's hard to motivate myself some days. But I did want to write this article on Covid-19, since the situation is absolutely astounding. I try to predict the future, but I never saw this coming. A lot of businesses are required to stay closed. Theoretically, people should only leave home to buy groceries, or perhaps to take a short walk close to home. However, a lot of people are still working from home. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2020 ** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Advice Advice from experts: Stay away from people. People, people who don't need people, Are the LUCKIEST PEOPLE in the world. We're children, needing other children, But then letting our grown-up experts, Crush all the need inside, Acting more like scared rabbits than children. (After Barbra Streisand) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-22-2020 ** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Cost-Benefit Analysis Navigator Wrote:> One of the big differences between now and the Spanish flu period It doesn't make any difference what the cost of medical care was then or is now. As I wrote in the article, there will be two million deaths in America. That translates to about eight million hospitalizations. The medical industry -- the hospitals and the insurance companies -- will be overwhelmed. With limited resources spread over eight million patients, the cost per patient will be close to zero. Beyond that, a cost-benefit analysis is meaningless. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-23-2020 ** 23-Mar-2020 World View: Philippines Xeraphim1 Wrote:> My wife gives me the news from the Philippines; Manila and many of In my article yesterday, I described the greatest danger as being crowding and poverty. I mentioned Mumbai, Lagos and Mexico City, but Manila certainly fits in the category as well. Your posting lists all the reasons why this is extremely dangerous, not only to the cities involved, but also to the entire world. I hope your wife and your niece find a way to stay safe. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-23-2020 ** 23-Mar-2020 World View: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Map - March 23, 2020
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-23-2020 ** 23-Mar-2020 World View: Laugh of the day - Reusable bags Who says that you can't have fun with Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)? I've always been pissed off by the prohibition against single use plastic bags. The whole prohibition was a crock of shit because the packaging for the food for a typical bag of groceries contains enough plastic for ten plastic bags. So that left people with a choice -- carry around your own bag all the time, in case you decide to buy something, and turn into a bag lady, or else pay 10 cents for paper bags supplied by the store. This REALLY pissed me off not only because of the charge, but mainly because this is a "screw the Boomer" law. If a bag tears for a young kid, then he won't have any trouble picking up the groceries from the sidewalk. But if any old person (like myself) has a bag tear, then trying to collect the groceries from the street or sidewalk is a major project, and may be next to impossible. So this bag law is blatant age discrimination. So the city of Cambridge issued the following edict about an hour ago: Quote: "In a continued collective effort to halt the spread Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!! I can hardly wait to buy groceries tomorrow so I can tell the girl at the cash register that I want two or three bags instead of just one, and laugh as I say it. At my age, it's almost impossible to have any fun, but this is going to be fun. I know that it's extremely pathetic, but a guy's gotta have fun somehow, and this is it. Maybe some day I'll tell you how I have fun with spam telephone callers. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-23-2020 ** 23-Mar-2020 World View: India stock market crashes India's stock market crashed on Monday, falling until it was stopped by a trading halt after falling 10%. The crash is being blamed on the Covid-19 crisis. India is virtually under lockdown, with manufacturing companies announcing shutdowns. India has a very high population density -- 455 people per sq km, compared with 148 in China, 205 in Italy and 50 in Iran. Analysts are saying that India is at a crucial point where it has to decide whether to follow the example of China or the example of Italy. ---- Source: -- India stock market / Sensex crashes 3,935 points: What's behind market meltdown https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/sensex-hits-10-lower-circuit-what-led-to-the-market-meltdown/articleshow/74768152.cms (IndiaTimes, 23-Mar-2020) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 03-23-2020 (03-23-2020, 08:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!! I totally enjoyed this today. So much Schadenfreude. Made the half hour wait in line to get into the store worthwhile. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-24-2020 ** 24-Mar-2020 World View: History of wild stock market swings The DJIA increased 11.37% on Tuesday, and commentators are pointing out that this was the largest increase since 1933. That's true, according to my DJIA historical page: ** DJIA Historical Page ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.djia.htm The following is a list of all the days when the DJIA increased by more than 10%: Code: Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend) And the following is a list of all the days when the DJIA decreased by more than 10%: Code: Date DJIA (Change) (% of trend) So the wild swings that we've been seeing recently are not good news, but are harbingers of a financial crisis, and possibly a major panic and financial crisis. And as long-time readers are well aware, the stock market is in a bubble. Take a look at the "% of trend" column for two days in March 2020. The DJIA is far above its trend value of around 9370. This shows how huge the stock market bubble is. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-24-2020 ** 24-Mar-2020 World View: The Principle of Maximum Ruin Higgenbotham Wrote:> I would add re the above story and the idea of Maximum Ruin. I had forgotten about the Principle of Maximum Ruin. It's worthwhile quoting again the excerpt from John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great Crash - 1929, which seems to have a mystical quality that makes it more and more meaningful each time you read it: Quote:> "A common feature of all these earlier troubles So millions of people are being screwed once again, by the Principle of Maximum Ruin. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-24-2020 *** 25-Mar-20 World View -- Trump calls for ending coronavirus lockdowns by Easter, April 12 This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump calls for ending coronavirus lockdowns by Easter, April 12 **** The 'Coronavirus Curve' showing how far each country is into the pandemic (ZeroHedge) President Donald Trump and his advisors are saying: "The cure can’t be allowed to be worse than the disease." This statement concisely describes the conflict between the twin goals of slowing the pandemic and prevening collapse of the economy. The "disease," of course, is the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. According to the World Health Organization, the number of cases worldwide surpassed 400,000 on Tuesday, with 18,227 deaths (4.5%). In the United States, there have been almost 50,000 cases. As I wrote in my previous article, the path of Covid-19 is almost identical to the path of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and millions of Americans will die from the virus during the next two years. ( "22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu" ) The "cure" for the disease has been to shut down the entire economy. Factories are closed, restaurants are closed, businesses large and small are closed. People are told to stay in the homes, and not go to work. This is crippling the economy, sending the economy spiraling into a recession, and causing a major selloff in the stock market. The same is true in countries around the world. The graph at the beginning of this article shows the "Corona Curve," and the position of different countries on that curve. That chart shows that China and South Korea are the farthest along, with a leveling off of the number of new cases, with Italy and Iran in the middle of the time of fastest growth of new cases. The United States is shown just about to enter the rapid growth period in the next couple of months. This has been widely predicted anyway, as the amount of testing increases, and reveals new infections. The World Health Organzation on Tuesday said that the United States is becoming the new epicenter of the pandemic. What the chart doesn't show is that different states are at different positions on the curve. New York City, San Francisco and Seattle are well into the "late accumulation" phase, while many parts of the Midwest are still in early development. In New York state there are 21,000 cases on Tuesday, and the number is doubling every three days. New York will soon be totally overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases. So Donald Trump says that he'd like to end all the lockdowns by Easter, April 12. Few people believe that's possible. **** **** Pandemic and shutdown surrounded by political controversies **** The United States, like many countries, is facing a stark choice: death from the virus, or death from economic collapse. Last week, Trump issued a set of guidelines calling for a national shutdown for 15 days, after which the situation would be reevaluated. The 15 days ends on March 31. He's said that, if possible, he'd like to announce an end to the lockdowns: <QUOTE>"America will again and soon be open for business. We are not going to let it turn into a long-lasting financial problem."<END QUOTE> Speaking generally, the medical community would prefer to continue the shutdown. This is adding to a number of political issues and controversies.
**** **** Putting the country back to work on April 12 **** Putting the country back to work is not an on-off switch. When Trump announces new guidelines next week, he'll probably announced a gradual lifting of the national shutdown:
I gave an example of this in a previous article: If a restaurant or bar wants to stay open, then the owner will separate the tables and place screens between them to create compartments, and then sanitize each compartment after the people leave. Many restaurants are already staying open by providing curbside service or at-home deliveries, abut the use of screens could permit them to reopen completely. This may seen like a fairly obscure example, but imagine if restaurants were permitted to open again, provided that the restaurant were made safe by the use of such screens. And now, imagine any other kind of business, and think about how a similar change could be made to allow the business to continue operating. This would result in new regulations that would replace the requirement to shut down. And as I've said before, we can imagine a different world, a new world, but a world that's as busy and bustling as the old world was until recently. So it's possible that within three or four months, most businesses will be open again, but restricted by new regulations to make them safe. Such regulations might "flatten the curve" enough so that the number of coronavirus deaths can be reduced until a vaccine becomes available, sometime in 2021. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve, China, South Korea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-25-2020 ** 25-Mar-2020 World View: Pandemic scenario richard5za Wrote:> Does anyone have a view on how long this pandemic could go on for: I've written extensively on this subject in articles on my web site and with shorter reports in the Generational Dynamics World View News forum thread. You should look at the web log on my web site: http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.weblog.htm You should subscribe to my regular articles: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe And you should subscribe to my active forum thread: "Generational Dynamics World View News" http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&uid=53&watch=topic You should also subscribe to the "Financial Topics" thread: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&uid=53&watch=topic RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-25-2020 ** 25-Mar-2020 World View: Optimism Here's an e-mail message from a reader: Quote:> "I've been reading you daily for about a decade, and Optimism ... pessimism ... it's all a mirage. We're all trapped in a movie theatre watching a horror movie, and they've locked the doors so we can't escape. The movie isn't optimistic. The movie isn't pessimistic. The movie just IS. The movie is life. Anyway, I didn't exactly say what you say I said. We're firmly on the path of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. So there are still going to be millions of deaths. But what I wrote about is how the country's economy can continue as the pandemic goes and flows, and people continue to die, even though people are avoiding "gatherings," and are keeping a "social distance." That's exactly the same problem that the people had in 1918 and 1919. So that's both bad news and good news. The good news is that people won't die of starvation. The bad news is that people will die of coronavirus. The news is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. This time it's not different. What's old is new again. There's nothing new under the sun. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-25-2020 ** 25-Mar-2020 World View: Weekly jobless claims The number of jobless claims for the preceding week is announced on Thursday mornings. The number is usually around 200,000. Tomorrow morning, when jobless claims for the week of March 21 are announced, analysts are forecasting that the number will be one to four million. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-25-2020 ** 25-Mar-2020 World View: Spanish Flu blood transfusions One of the techniques being tested now in trials is to take the blood from a recovered Covid-19 patient, extract the plasma which contains the Covid-19 antibodies, and inject the plasma into another patient. A similar technique was used in 1918 to treat Spanish Flu patients. According to a research paper: Quote:> "Transfusions with blood products taken from people -- Analysis Of Spanish Flu Cases In 1918-1920 Suggests Transfusions Might Help In Bird Flu Pandemic https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/08/060830075728.htm (ScienceDaily, 30-Aug-2006) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-26-2020 *** 27-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus pandemic threatens 3.5 million people in Syria's Idlib This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Coronavirus pandemic threatens 3.5 million people in Syria's Idlib **** White Helmets (Syrian Civil Defense) prepare to disinfect refugee camp in northern Idlib, on border with Turkey (Getty) As long-time readers are aware, there are now over 3.5 million people in Syria's Idlib province. Two million of them are refugees from Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and other regions of Syria where Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, supported by Iran and Russia, has been conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing, targeting his Sunni Muslim political opponents. In Idlib, about 40,000 of the 3.5 million people are anti-Assad fighters, some being members of al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Most of the other 3.5 million people are children. Of the remainder, most are women. Al-Assad's barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons have specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many women and children as possible, which I guess is the best way to commit genocide. Just since December, 84 hospitals and healthcare facilities were damaged, and hundreds of healthcare personnel have been attacked in Idlib. At this time, international humanitarian aid workers in Idlib are in a state of dread and panic because they know that, sooner or later, the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) will reach the crowded refugee camps, where there's no clean water or soap or medicines or even much food. The virus will sweep through the crowds in the refugee camps and worsen the humanitarian disaster. The virus outbreak in Idlib will be made much worse because the sociopathic monster Bashar al-Assad, joined with his genocidal pals Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Iran's crazy fanatical leader Ali Khameini, have been bombing hospitals, so there will be few places left where doctors can care for patients. So the rescue agency White Helmets, along with the aid agencies and NGOs, have been scrambling, trying to plan for the pandemic's arrival, disinfecting camps and trying to work out how to provide medical care and containment strategies where all the hospitals have been distroyed. The objective will be to try to hold back the tidal wave of illness when the pandemic arrives. **** **** Syria admits to first cases of coronavirus -- probably from Iran **** On Wednesday, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria imposed a nationwide curfew from 6 pm each evening until 6 am the next morning. During the curfew, all trade activities and shops must shut completely, and violators will be arrested. On the same day, Syria admitted to confirming five cases of coronavirus in the capital city Damascus. As in the case of China, Iran and Russia, it's believed that al-Assad is hiding the true extent of the problem in Syria, and that there are many more cases beneath the surface. Bashar al-Assad depends heavily on Iran to prop up his regime, and so he can't be too critical about the coronavirus infections, since most of them were inherited from Iran. Iran refused for weeks to admit that there were coronavirus infections in Iran, because Iran was importing the disease from China, and didn't want to anger the Chinese. ( "14-Mar-20 World View -- Iran's army to monitor entire population for Wuhan Coronavirus" ) So now, al-Assad's regime is importanting the disease from Iran, but doesn't want to anger the Iranians. In the meantime, the final virus explosion will be made much worse because al-Assad destroyed dozens of hospitals in Idlib that might have prevented the spread of the disease. Iran now has 30,000 confirmed cases of the virus, resulting in the death even of numerous government officials, and the number of infections continues to grow. By inviting Iranians to help with his genocide and ethnic cleansing, and by destroying dozens of hospitals that might have helped, Bashar al-Assad is going to get what he deserves. Think of it as Allah's divine retribution. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, Syria, Idlib, Turkey, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, White Helmets, China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 03-27-2020 If Iranian generals can die of COVID-19, then so can colonels, majors, lieutenants, sergeants, corporals, and privates. Refugee camps almost as a rule are hideously crowded. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2020 ** 27-Mar-2020 World View: China closes movie theaters again, fearing virus second wave On Friday, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ordered all movie theaters across China to close. There are 70,000 movie theaters in China, and they had all be ordered closed in January, to prevent the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19). Recently, China has been reporting only a handful of new Covid-19 cases each day, and was bragging that China had been successful in bring the pandemic under control in China. And so, two weeks ago, the CCP began permitting movie theatres to reopen, and 600 theaters had begun doing so. However, on Friday evening, the CCP suddenly ordered all movie theaters to shut down again. What this means to me is that the CCP had been believing its own nonsense about having Covid-19 under control, and the movie theatres were resulting in a "second wave" of cases. However, China has 1.4 billion people, and it simply doesn't make sense that such a huge population should have ended the coronavirus epidemic with only 80,000 cases. Nobody believes any numbers that come out of China anyway, but these numbers never made any sense at all. In fact, there have been several reports coming out of China that hospitals are not testing for coronavirus, or are reporting coronavirus cases as something else, so avoid having to report new cases. Furthermore the CCP still has brutal censorship rules in place, where anyone who reports something that contradicts official CCP claims can be harshly punished. So there is no incentive for anyone to report new Covid-19 cases up the chain to the CCP, or to even test for Covid-19. What's interesting about the current situation is that the sudden shutdown of the movie theaters reveals that the CCP believed its own lies, and the lies were contradicted by the results of opening the theaters, forcing them to be closed again. China has particularly been bragging that the United States now has the highest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases of any country in the world, including China. The reason for that is that the US has conducted far more Covid-19 tests than any other country in the world. The number of confirmed cases does not depend on the population of a country. It depends on the number of tests. If a country has a million cases, but only 100 people ae tested, then you will not confirm any more than 100 cases. That's what's happening in this case, where the US has now become world leader in testing for Covid-19, and therefore has the largest number of confirmed cases. Most people on tv don't want to talk about a "second wave," because it interferes with the hope that the entire crisis will end by May, though these are the same people who, a month ago, were hoping that the crisis would end by April. There are signs that a "second wave" is growing in Hong Kong and South Korea, as the social distancing restrictions are being relaxed, and restaurants are reopening. In the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, there was a huge "second wave" in the fall of 1918. It was much worse than the first wave that occurred in the previous spring, and killed tens of millions of people. ** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200322.htm#e200322 In fall of 1918, officials were not expecting a second wave, and they were completely unprepared for it. In fall of this year, officials will be quite expecting a second wave, and will do everything possible in advance to prepare for it. That may not be true for China, if the CCP keeps believing its own lies, and keeps censoring people who try to tell what's really going on. ---- Sources: -- China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-shuts-down-all-cinemas-again-1287040 (HollywoodReporter, 27-Mar-2020) -- Coronavirus Comeback? China Braces For Possible Second Wave Of COVID-19 https://www.rferl.org/a/china-braces-for-possible-second-wave-of-covid-19/30513782.html (RFERL, 27-Mar-2020) -- Ren Zhiqiang / Chinese Property Tycoon's Letter Seen as 'Internal Strife' by Chinese President https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/tycoon-xijinping-03262020160600.html (RFA, 26-Mar-2020) -- The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already (BB, 26-Mar-2020) |