(03-24-2020, 06:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Mar-2020 World View: History of wild stock market swings

The DJIA increased 11.37% on Tuesday, and commentators are pointing
out that this was the largest increase since 1933.

That's true, according to my DJIA historical page:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.djia.htm

The following is a list of all the days when the DJIA increased by
more than 10%:

Code:

Date              DJIA (Change)   (% of trend)    
----------------- --------------  ----------------
Wed 1929-10-30    258.47(+12.34%) (171% of 150.40)
Mon 1931-06-22    145.82(+11.90%) ( 89% of 162.13)
Tue 1931-10-06     99.34(+14.87%) ( 60% of 164.30)
Wed 1932-09-21     75.16(+11.36%) ( 43% of 171.68)
Wed 1933-03-15     62.10(+15.34%) ( 35% of 175.46)
Wed 1987-10-21   2027.85(+10.15%) ( 95% of 2128.8)
Mon 2008-10-13   9387.61(+11.08%) (169% of 5554.3)
Tue 2008-10-28   9065.12(+10.88%) (162% of 5564.8)
Tue 2020-03-24  20704.91(+11.37%) (220% of 9371.5)

And the following is a list of all the days when the DJIA decreased
by more than 10%:

Code:

Date              DJIA (Change)   (% of trend)    
----------------- --------------  ----------------
Mon 1929-10-28    260.64(-13.47%) (173% of 150.36) Black Monday
Tue 1929-10-29    230.07(-11.73%) (152% of 150.38)
Mon 1931-10-05     86.48(-10.73%) ( 52% of 164.28)
Mon 1987-10-19   1738.74(-22.61%) ( 81% of 2128.2)
Mon 2020-03-16  20188.52(-12.93%) (215% of 9362.1)

So the wild swings that we've been seeing recently are not
good news, but are harbingers of a financial crisis, and possibly
a major panic and financial crisis.

And as long-time readers are well aware, the stock market is in a
bubble.  Take a look at the "% of trend" column for two days
in March 2020.  The DJIA is far above its trend value of around
9370.  This shows how huge the stock market bubble is.

Guest Wrote:> One thing to consider – the prisons are releasing nonviolent
> prisoners early. Many of them are people who have drug habits or
> are in jail for burglary. Many police come into close contact
> with the public while making arrests, so more of them will call in
> sick. Shops are closed down and still full of whatever they sell,
> but no one is watching the store. Guess what will occur to
> someone recently released?

Quote:> "You've got be realistic, and you've got to understand
> that you don't make the timeline, the virus makes the
> timeline. ...

> There are things called models. And when someone creates a model,
> they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and
> as accurate as your assumptions. And whenever the modelers come
> in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

> Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never
> seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the
> worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot. ...

> I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, I would say between
> 100,000 and 200,000 [deaths]. But I don't want to be held to
> that. ... I mean, we're going to have millions of
> cases."

• New York city is the US epicenter right now, but there are new
  major hot spots in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago, and they'll
  spread to other cities and towns.
  
  
• Once the harsh restrictions are lifted, which everyone seems to
  expect with a month or so, there will be a resurgence as infections
  spread again.
  
  
• The spread of Covid-19 may slow in warm summer weather, but the
  weather will be cold again in the fall, resulting in a "second
  wave."
  
  
• Just as the ordinary seasonal flu mutates every year, requiring a
  new vaccine every year, the Covid-19 virus is likely to mutate, with
  the result that survivors of the first wave will be sick again in the
  second wave in the fall.
  
  
• Other countries are not prepared to handle Covid-19 as well as the
  US and the West. The virus will sweep through countries in Africa,
  Central America and Asia soon, and then again in the second wave in
  the fall. These massive infections will seed outbreaks in other
  countries, including Western countries.

Guest 5 Wrote:> While I think that we’ll be okay if we’re talking a shutdown of
> just a couple more weeks, I have to say that I hope President
> Trump *doesn’t* listen to the “experts” who are telling him a 3-4
> month shutdown, because there’s no way society survives that in
> exchange for $1,000 or so a person.

Guest Wrote:>   Wishful thinking, John. You said it yourself, "All governments
>   fail." Why should America be any different? I love my country,
>   always have, always will, but I see little around me to give me
>   hope. Too few are alive today to save a sinking ship.

Guest Wrote:> I can't think of a current TV program on that didn't include some
> form of virtue signalling. Please list a couple. Even nature
> documentaries I have recently watched have heaped entirely false
> praise on African governments for their efforts at wildlife
> protection, which is laughable.

Guest Wrote:> When this country "regenerates" , will the country be reborn as a
> Spanish speaking third world country? People can say race and
> culture don't matter, but they do. Language and culture are what
> bind a nation. We have largely lost that. When AOC's staff shows
> up at public events sporting t-shirts which say "The future of
> America is Latino" what I am supposed to think? What will my
> future look like? Not good.

Guest Wrote:> America has a string of failed states below it in Latin
> America. This is a form gangrene that we have allowed to spread
> across our open borders. Is it racist to point that out? I don't
> believe so. No rational person would. I see a country shackled by
> political correctness and drowning.

a refugee Wrote:> I have read two of your books and bits and pieces of the Fourth
> Turning, John. I think your analysis is much better, but sometimes
> I think you miss the forest for the trees.

> I strongly believe that America has reached the end of the line. I
> would compare multi-cultural, multi-ethnic America today to the
> Ottoman Empire of 1914. The empire worked until it didn't. The
> ethnic differences became to great and the first world war didn't
> unite the Ottoman Empire, it destroyed it. The Armenians
> can tell you how that ended.

Guest Wrote:> Those who have raised their voices in protest have been
> silenced.

GTFOH Wrote:> According to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses in China -
> which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash
> within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone
> within a month.

> That will be us in six weeks.

> WW3 isn't coming, revolution is.

Guest Wrote:> I wish I could share your optimism, John. I really do. But All I
> see around me is anti-American hatred from Latino immigrants and
> even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on welfare and
> be given everything for free. I have been practicing social
> distancing from them since the 1990s. I see CW breaking out
> soon.

zzazz Wrote:> Is it official? Does GD predict civil war in China? Is there a
> time frame on that or is it anytime in the next 1000
> years?

Higgenbotham Wrote:> If the world gets even smaller than that (and quickly), and the
> resource base being squabbled over is profoundly local and
> conditions are profoundly variable between localities, war will
> not be organized on a global or national scale. That's what I
> think is going to happen and who is at each other's throats will
> be highly variable across the US. But I can see why others would
> disagree with that assessment.

Quote:> "When you're a Jet,
> You're the swingin'est thing.
> Little boy, you're a man;
> Little man, you're a king!

> The Jets are in gear,
> Our cylinders are clickin'!
> The Sharks'll steer clear,
> 'Cause ev'ry Puerto Rican
> 'S a lousy chicken!

> Here come the Jets
> Like a bat out of hell—
> Someone gets in our way
> Someone don't feel so well!

> Here come the Jets!
> Little world, step aside,
> Better go underground,
> Better run, better hide!

> We're drawin' the line,
> So keep your noses hidden!
> We're hangin' a sign
> Says "Visitors forbidden,"
> And we ain't kiddin!

> Here come the Jets—
> Yeah! And we're gonna beat
> Every last buggin' gang
> On the whole buggin' street!"

(04-01-2020, 11:17 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Regarding the 58 year rule....

> By year 80 almost everyone with adult memories of the previous
> Crisis are gone.

> By year 80, those who were kids during the previous Crisis would
> now be a rapidly shrinking pool of old people.

Guest Wrote:> John, I have tried to read between the lines and I'm not good at
> it sometimes. Do you think we are still headed to an economic
> depression instead of uncontrolled inflation? Will we need
> millions of dollars to buy the rare loaf of bread in the coming
> months or will the bread be available but no one has any dough to
> buy it?

Quote:> "I’m finding these lockdowns increasingly morally
> objectionable. So far I cannot point to one country where deaths
> rates are significantly higher than normal. I think Germany and
> Netherlands show the best example where this virus is only
> slightly more deadly than flu - by the end of this we will look
> back and say it probably was the same as flu. Except, that is the
> process we destroyed our economies and caused untold
> hardship."

Quote:> "This seems especially true in emerging markets, I am
> very concerned with countries like India. How do we access the
> potential for violence and revolution?"

Quote:> "The comments boards in the UK still generally support
> the government, maybe they get away with declaring victory and
> move on, and the official inquiry into the debacle only comes out
> in a few years."

Quote:> "In emerging markets where people are starving or
> being beaten, etc, this may not fly. Any view?"

Quote:> "How is Iran’s burn through working? I think Sweden
> and Brazil and doing something similar - any view on numbers
> there?"

• In some places, social distancing is occurring with little or
  no prompting, as in Sweden. But I expect that to change as the
  numbers of infections and deaths increase. We're approaching summer
  which may (or may not) slow the spread of Covid-19, so maybe Sweden
  will be able to hold off until fall, or maybe not.
  
  
• In Brazil, as I understand it, this is also the peak of the dengue
  fever season, and the two diseases are overwhelming hospitals. With
  winter approaching, this situation could worsen considerably.
  Bolsonaro seems to be betting that he can ignore the problem. I don't
  have the feeling this will end well. However, the silver lining is
  that Brazil's experience may provide the world with data on how things
  will go in the north in the fall, when the second wave strikes in
  winter.
  
  
• Other places, like the UK and US, are reasonably compliant with
  the lockdown guidance, and minimal enforcement is required.
  
  
• China, Iran and Russia are doing everything possible to hide the
  number of infections and deaths, and to find a way to blame the entire
  crisis on the US. In all three cases, it's believed that the actual
  number of cases is many times higher than is being reported. In
  China, numerous reports indicate that doctors are forced to re-label
  Covid-19 cases as something else. However, in the last week, China
  has shut down all movie theaters (again), and yesterday declared a
  total lockdown for Jia county in Henan province, which is north of
  Hubei and adjacent to it.
  
  
• In Iran, it's impossible to tell what going on since the
  government is lying about numbers, so the only information is
  anecdotal. However, satellite photos are showing huge mass graves,
  and Iran's state tv is saying that "millions could die."
  
  
• There are other places, like crowded refugee camps and crowded
  megacities, where local attempts will be made for "social distancing,"
  but the whole population might be quickly infected.

zzazz Wrote:> US civil war ended in 1865 and no follow on civil war yet
> French revolution ended 1799 and no follow on civil war yet
> English Civil War ended 1651 and no follow on civil war yet

> I think my skepticism is entirely reasonable.

• The American civil war was not an ethnic civil war, but was
  actually a geographic war. There might have been a new North-South
  clash in the 1930s, but it was mooted by the Nazis and Imperial Japan,
  and the next crisis war was World War II.
  
  
• France actually had a very bloody civil war in 1871, called the
  Paris Commune.
  
  
• The successor to the English civil war was the War of the Spanish
  Succession (1701-09), where England was fighting France, and Scotland
  was an ally of France, so in many ways it was a partial replay of the
  English civil war.

Quote:> "They’re very sobering, yeah. When you see 100,000
> people, that’s a — and that’s at a minimum number. ... [T]hat
> would be, you know, a lot of lives taking place over a relatively
> short period of time.

> But think of what would have happened if we didn’t do anything. I
> mean, I’ve had many friends, business people, people with great,
> actually, common sense — they said, “Why don’t we ride it out?” A
> lot of people have said. A lot of people have thought about it.
> “Ride it out. Don’t do anything, just ride it out and think of it
> as the flu.” But it’s not the flu. It’s vicious.

> When you send a friend to the hospital, and you call up to find
> out how is he doing — it happened to me, where he goes to the
> hospital, he says goodbye. He’s sort of a tough guy. A little
> older, a little heavier than he’d like to be, frankly. And you
> call up the next day: “How’s he doing?” And he’s in a coma? This
> is not the flu.

> So we would have seen things had we done nothing. But for a long
> while, a lot of people were asking that question, I think, right?
> I was asking it also. I mean, a lot of people were saying, “Well,
> let’s just ride it out.” This is not to be ridden out because
> then you would have been looking at potentially 2.2 million people
> or more. 2.2 million people in a relatively short period of time.

> If you remember, they were looking at that concept. It’s a
> concept, I guess. You know, it’s concept if you — if you don’t
> mind death. A lot of death. But they were looking at that in the
> UK. Remember? They were very much looking at it. And all of a
> sudden, they went hard the other way because they started seeing
> things that weren’t good. So they were — you know, they put
> themselves in a little bit of a problem.

> Now, Boris tested positive, and I hear he’s — I hope he’s going to
> be fine. But in the UK, they were looking at that. And they have
> a name for it, but we won’t even call — we won’t even go by the
> name. But it would’ve been — it would have been very catastrophic,
> I think, if that would have happened. [[Note: the name he's
> referencing is "herd immunity."]]

> But that was something that everybody was talking about, Steve,
> like, “just don’t do anything.” “Don’t do anything. Forget about
> everything. Just ride it out.” They used the expression, “Ride it
> out.” We would have had, at a minimum, 1.5, 1.6, but you would
> have had perhaps more than 2.2 million people dying in a very
> short period of time. And that would have been a number that —
> the likes of which we’ve never seen."

(04-04-2020, 08:26 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I don't see the "ride it out" meme being viable. First, we
> already exceed the capability of our healthcare system with the
> actions in place, and letting it ride will only guarantee that the
> dead will pile-up like cord wood. Then comes the next round:
> secondary disease. Long before the economy comes into play, we'll
> go through round after round of illnesses sweeping through, and no
> way to stop them. This isn't stupid. It's insane!

> BTW, we'll see this model in the 3rd world; they no other option.
> Let's not try it here.