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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 04-04-2020
(04-04-2020, 09:22 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 04-Apr-2020 World View: Ride it out!
(04-04-2020, 08:26 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I don't see the "ride it out" meme being viable. First, we
> already exceed the capability of our healthcare system with the
> actions in place, and letting it ride will only guarantee that the
> dead will pile-up like cord wood. Then comes the next round:
> secondary disease. Long before the economy comes into play, we'll
> go through round after round of illnesses sweeping through, and no
> way to stop them. This isn't stupid. It's insane!
> BTW, we'll see this model in the 3rd world; they no other option.
> Let's not try it here.
From what I've seen, I have the impression that those advocating "ride
it out" are younger people who are saying, "Finally! We have a way to
get rid of the Boomers!"
OK, then stupidity, insanity and naivete. Not a good combination.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-04-2020
But very typical Millenial values.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2020
** 04-Apr-2020 World View: Japan
Quote:> From what I've seen, I have the impression that those advocating
> "ride it out" are younger people who are saying, "Finally! We have
> a way to get rid of the Boomers!"
Guest Wrote:> This is what many young people are hoping will happen in
> Japan.
How do you know this? Did you read it somewhere, or do you live in
Japan?
I've always been told that, unlike America, Japanese youth honor the
wisdom and experience of their elders. Don't tell me that isn't
true!! Horrors!!
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-05-2020
** 05-Apr-2020 World View: Vera Lynn - We'll Meet Again
The following is presented in honor of the Queen's speech today:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMUuuaUGff0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMUuuaUGff0
Vera Lynn - We'll Meet Again
Below, the full transcript of the speech.
Quote:> "I am speaking to you at what I know is an
> increasingly challenging time.
> A time of disruption in the life of our country: a disruption that
> has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and
> enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.
> I want to thank everyone on the NHS front line, as well as care
> workers and those carrying out essential roles, who selflessly
> continue their day-to-day duties outside the home in support of us
> all.
> I am sure the nation will join me in assuring you that what you do
> is appreciated and every hour of your hard work brings us closer
> to a return to more normal times.
> I also want to thank those of you who are staying at home, thereby
> helping to protect the vulnerable and sparing many families the
> pain already felt by those who have lost loved ones.
> Together we are tackling this disease, and I want to reassure you
> that if we remain united and resolute, then we will overcome it.
> I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in
> how they responded to this challenge.
> And those who come after us will say the Britons of this
> generation were as strong as any.
> That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured
> resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.
> The pride in who we are is not a part of our past, it defines our
> present and our future.
> The moments when the United Kingdom has come together to applaud
> its care and essential workers will be remembered as an expression
> of our national spirit; and its symbol will be the rainbows drawn
> by children.
> Across the Commonwealth and around the world, we have seen
> heart-warming stories of people coming together to help others, be
> it through delivering food parcels and medicines, checking on
> neighbours, or converting businesses to help the relief effort.
> And though self-isolating may at times be hard, many people of all
> faiths, and of none, are discovering that it presents an
> opportunity to slow down, pause and reflect, in prayer or
> meditation.
> It reminds me of the very first broadcast I made, in 1940, helped
> by my sister. We, as children, spoke from here at Windsor to
> children who had been evacuated from their homes and sent away for
> their own safety.
> Today, once again, many will feel a painful sense of separation
> from their loved ones. But now, as then, we know, deep down, that
> it is the right thing to do.
> While we have faced challenges before, this one is different. This
> time we join with all nations across the globe in a common
> endeavour, using the great advances of science and our instinctive
> compassion to heal.
> We will succeed – and that success will belong to every one of
> us. We should take comfort that while we may have more still to
> endure, better days will return: we will be with our friends
> again; we will be with our families again; we will meet again.
> But for now, I send my thanks and warmest good wishes to you
> all."
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-05-2020
** 05-Apr-2020 World View: State of emergency in Japan
Japan will declare a state of emergency on Monday, to take effect on
Wednesday. Tokyo confirmed 143 new coronavirus infections Sunday,
marking the city's highest rate of daily increase, bringing the total
number of cases in the capital to 1,033. It's now believed that
the number of cases will surge dramatically in the next couple
of weeks. According to one analyst I heard, "Tokyo will be the
next New York."
The state of emergency will grant new powers not to the Japanese
government, but to local authorities in regional governments. he
governors of areas subject to the declaration will be able to instruct
the public to refrain from going outside except to carry out tasks
such as grocery shopping and provide essential services including
healthcare and transportation.
They can also place restrictions on the use of facilities where large
groups of people gather -- schools, social welfare facilities,
theaters, music venues, sports stadiums -- including requesting them
to close temporarily.
In the event that existing hospitals become overrun and new ones need
to be quickly set up, as has been the case in some other countries
including China and the United States, the governors will be able to
expropriate private land and buildings under certain circumstances.
They can also requisition medical supplies and food from people that
refuse to sell them, and compel companies to help transport emergency
goods.
---- Source:
-- Japan PM Abe to declare state of emergency amid surge in virus
infections
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/5c77df980ac8-breaking-news-abe-to-declare-state-of-emergency-over-virus-govt-official.html
(Kyodo News, 6-Apr-2020)
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-06-2020
** 06-Apr-2020 World View: UK official: must trade off 'harming the young versus the old'
![[Image: 26799660-8186507-image-a-14_1585984153290.jpg]](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/04/04/08/26799660-8186507-image-a-14_1585984153290.jpg)
- London's Regent St deserted on a day when it would normally
be crowded with a mass of busy shoppers
Graham Medley, the UK government’s chief pandemic modeller, is advocating
reconsideration of the "herd immunity" strategy, which is similar
to the "ride it out" strategy that I've mentioned in earlier articles.
According to Medley, Britain must consider allowing people to catch
the virus in the least deadly way possible rather than letting
unemployment, domestic violence and mental ill health mount
indefinitely.
According to Medley, Britain must "face the trade-off between harming
the young versus the old."
This statement reflects the feelings of many Gen-Xers and Millennials
that finally they will be able to get rid of all the Boomers. This
Millennial dream is, of course, fantasy, but it's motivating some of
the talk.
Still, Medley's advice will have to be followed eventually, whether
the politicians want it or not. Another fantasy is that enforced
lockdowns will end soon. A month ago, they were thought to end in
April or May with a "V-shaped recovery," but now the fantasy is that
they'll end in May or June.
Covid-19 still has a long way to go. It still has to sweep through
Africa, the Mideast, South America, and countries in Asia. Even in
developed countries, lifting social distancing and mitigation
restrictions will cause an immediate resurgence, as we've seen in the
last few days in Singapore, Hong Kong, and China.
And every day the lockdown continues means that many small businesses
will have to close permanently, and their employees will be
permanently unemployed. So many people will continue to face the
Sophie's choice of "death by starvation" versus "death by
coronavirus."
What this means is that the public will demand some form of the "ride
it out" or "herd immunity" strategy, so that schools and businesses
can reopened.
---- Source:
-- Graham Medley / UK / PM's virus adviser warns Britain might still
need to adopt herd immunity
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186507/PMs-virus-adviser-warns-Britain-need-adopt-herd-immunity.html
(Daily Mail, London, 4-Apr-2020)
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-06-2020
** 06-Apr-2020 World View: The war over face masks
There's a growing global war over face masks, gowns, and ventilators.
This morning on MS-NBC we saw one battle in that war.
A Democratic politician on MS-NBC this morning was complaining that
states had to compete with one another to get vitally needed face
masks. The politician was Corey Johnson, Democrat, NYC council
speaker.
Johnson gave an example where someone over the weekend had to drive a
few hours to race to a gas station to meet with someone to give him a
check before someone else did, in order to get an order of face masks.
He whined that having to do that is ridiculous, incompetent and
ineffecient.
So he wants the federal government to take responsibility for
allocating such things as face masks. After he discussed this
recommendation, he went on to discuss how the government bailout
programs are racially discriminatory.
As usual, I have to marvel at the stupidity of these politicians. You
see stupidity on a daily basis, every time AOC opens her month, but
you can see that Johnson doesn't even the vaguest clue about
economics.
So let's take an example. Suppose there are one million face masks
available, and three million face masks are needed. Then, one way or
another, two million people won't get face masks. It doesn't matter
how the masks are allocated.
Typically, politicians are unable to understand simple math at the
second grade, and Johnson seems to be in that category. These numbers
are too difficult for politicians to understand.
So what is Johnson's solution to the problem? He wants Trump to
appoint a federal government bureaucrat to be "Face mask and Gown
Czar," who will decide who gets the one million face masks.
So this Czar would be appointed by Trump, so would probably be a
Republican, so Johnson would be whining every day that he's favoring
Republican districts, and that he's discriminating against blacks,
women, transgenders, Muslims, the whole works. The result would be a
bureaucratic disaster, and by the time it was done, probably only half
of the one million available face masks would be distributed.
We see this all the time -- politicians on the left and right who are
way too stupid to do much of anything except spend money, and can't
even do second grade arithmetic. The only good thing about this
situation is that Johnson's proposal has little chance of
implementation. At least I hope so.
However, this is only one battle in an increasing vitriolic global
war. Wait till it starts burning through Africa, the Mideast, and
various refugee camps. A lot of people are are going to be angry, as
they watch their friends and family drop dead from the virus.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-06-2020
** 06-Apr-2020 World View: Herd Immunity
richard5za Wrote:> John, you previously expressed a view that the public wouldn't go
> with a herd immunity strategy; would not be able to handle all the
> dead bodies (my words not yours) Is your view changing?
Fortunately for me, I hedged and used the phrase "some form of" of
herd immunity.
Actually, the phrase "herd immunity" has actually changed its meaning.
When I first wrote about it, "herd immunity" meant that old people
would be put into isolation, and the virus would (somehow) be allowed
to burn through the population of young people. After it ended, the
old people could be let out, and everyone could live in harmony (not
counting the young people who had been killed). And no, there isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that a policy like that would be adopted by
any democracy, or by any government.
However, today the meaning "herd immunity" has changed. It simply
means not taking mitigation steps, and letting the virus burn through
the entire population. Millennials and Gen-Xers are hoping for this,
since they see it as a way to get rid of all the Boomers. So, in a
sense, the current meaning of "herd immunity" has been reversed -- it
used to mean "save all the Boomers," but now it means "kill all the
Boomers." Yayyyy!
I don't think that any government is going to adopt even this policy,
but I do think it may occur by default. It will occur by default in
any country where the hospitals and health services become
overwhelmed. This will certainly be true in many places in Africa,
the Mideast, Asia, or in crowded cities and refugee camps.
On the other hand, every place, no matter how crowded and poor, will
at least attempt mitigation steps and social distancing, even if they
don't succeed. But it's still true that no population will purposely
adopt herd immunity without making every attempt at mitigation.
By the way, if you haven't watched that 1918 Spanish Flu documentary
that I previously recommended, you should do so.
** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c
What's important about this documentary is that it shows how
mitigation steps were tried, but repeatedly failed (except in San
Francisco).
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-07-2020
(04-06-2020, 08:02 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Another fantasy is that enforced
lockdowns will end soon. A month ago, they were thought to end in
April or May with a "V-shaped recovery," but now the fantasy is that
they'll end in May or June.
I think with widespread use of masks, businesses could be reopened, especially in the northern hemisphere where the weather is warming. Schools would need to remain closed and voluntary social distancing retained, of course.
Next fall and winter will be problematic, though.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 04-07-2020
(04-07-2020, 03:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-06-2020, 08:02 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Another fantasy is that enforced lockdowns will end soon. A month ago, they were thought to end in April or May with a "V-shaped recovery," but now the fantasy is that they'll end in May or June.
I think with widespread use of masks, businesses could be reopened, especially in the northern hemisphere where the weather is warming. Schools would need to remain closed and voluntary social distancing retained, of course.
Next fall and winter will be problematic, though.
I think this fiasco was allowed to get out of hand to the point that letting people back out to work and shop is a non-starter until testing is widespread and some viable therapy has been validated. Even the really well controlled areas are finding it hard to do by social management alone. If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 04-07-2020
(04-07-2020, 04:10 PM)David Horn Wrote:(04-07-2020, 03:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-06-2020, 08:02 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Another fantasy is that enforced lockdowns will end soon. A month ago, they were thought to end in April or May with a "V-shaped recovery," but now the fantasy is that they'll end in May or June.
I think with widespread use of masks, businesses could be reopened, especially in the northern hemisphere where the weather is warming. Schools would need to remain closed and voluntary social distancing retained, of course.
Next fall and winter will be problematic, though.
I think this fiasco was allowed to get out of hand to the point that letting people back out to work and shop is a non-starter until testing is widespread and some viable therapy has been validated. Even the really well controlled areas are finding it hard to do by social management alone. If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
Covid-19 isn't a flu virus, so summer, no good. The only thing that will stop it is to kill globalism. The virus has done lots of horrible things, but it was assisted full on by globalism. So, here it is, death, death to globalism is what covid19 is doing. That's a silver lining in my book. And if globalism doesn't die of this pathogen, then there's gonna be some more that are "just one airplane flight away". Masks? There are no masks to be found in the US, again, courtesy, globalism. No factories, no masks, simple as that. The fiasco mentioned above is a part of the Neoliberal thought process - profits over people. The health system works as designed. It's sole purpose is to generate profits. The matter of actually providing healthcare is a secondary consideration.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-07-2020
(04-07-2020, 04:10 PM)David Horn Wrote: If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
Exactly my point. Widespread business closures never happened in South Korea, so we don't need them here. Masks did happen there, so we do need them here.
(04-07-2020, 08:29 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Covid-19 isn't a flu virus, so summer, no good.
There has been a study on Covid virus reproduction factor in China, which showed a correlation between increasing temperature and humidity, and decreased reproduction factor. Coronaviruses also cause common colds, which also tend to go away in summer. There's every evidence that it will become easier to control in summer - most likely generating a false sense of security, since summer doesn't last forever.
Agreed that free movement of people will take a long term hit. I think free movement of goods will take less of a hit.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 04-07-2020
(04-07-2020, 09:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-07-2020, 04:10 PM)David Horn Wrote: If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
Exactly my point. Widespread business closures never happened in South Korea, so we don't need them here. Masks did happen there, so we do need them here.
(04-07-2020, 08:29 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Covid-19 isn't a flu virus, so summer, no good.
There has been a study on Covid virus reproduction factor in China, which showed a correlation between increasing temperature and humidity, and decreased reproduction factor. Coronaviruses also cause common colds, which also tend to go away in summer. There's every evidence that it will become easier to control in summer - most likely generating a false sense of security, since summer doesn't last forever.
Agreed that free movement of people will take a long term hit. I think free movement of goods will take less of a hit.
Nope, South Korea is a first world nation with first world health care. Americans need to get in their heads that the US is a shithole country in may ways, but especially health care.
https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1247309761131012096
So, shut it down, shut it all down. That's the only way our shitty health care system can handle this thing. People over profits. I mean even if that means destroying the Neoliberal order, I'm all for it. Autarky uber alles.
Yeah, but look at this.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-brazil-confirms-first-covid-19-case-in-south-america-11943575
And, you have to shut down every international flight to keep it from coming back. So, even if the transmission rate is lower in a warmer warmer weather, there's no worldwide immunity , so again, given globalism, the current pandemic is just one plane ride away from sparking a new outbreak. So, John, the only way to kill covid is to kill globalism. I'm all in favor of shutting down globalism for good. It's dead man walking anyway, so let's just nudge it off the cliff to the great beyond.
Ohhh yeah, baby, burn, globalism, burn. The smell of burning balance sheets of elites smells good in the morning.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-10-2020
** 10-Apr-2020 World View: Inflation
vincecate Wrote:> Also, at some point I expect there to be inflation. We may be
> seeing some in food already at the local store. If people see
> inflation then their faith in the power of the Federal Reserve
> will be shaken. Then things will crash for sure.
aeden Wrote:> This is my fourth bear market. These poor bastards will never know
> what hit them. And this is how the inflation starts.
If you're counting on inflation or hyperinflation, then you're
going to be badly hurt. This is a classic deflationry spiral,
like the 1930s. MMT is garbage.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-10-2020
(04-07-2020, 10:51 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:(04-07-2020, 09:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-07-2020, 04:10 PM)David Horn Wrote: If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
Exactly my point. Widespread business closures never happened in South Korea, so we don't need them here. Masks did happen there, so we do need them here.
(04-07-2020, 08:29 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Covid-19 isn't a flu virus, so summer, no good.
There has been a study on Covid virus reproduction factor in China, which showed a correlation between increasing temperature and humidity, and decreased reproduction factor. Coronaviruses also cause common colds, which also tend to go away in summer. There's every evidence that it will become easier to control in summer - most likely generating a false sense of security, since summer doesn't last forever.
Agreed that free movement of people will take a long term hit. I think free movement of goods will take less of a hit.
Nope, South Korea is a first world nation with first world health care. Americans need to get in their heads that the US is a shithole country in may ways, but especially health care.
https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1247309761131012096
The movie Black Panther about a hidden civilization in Africa (and not about an extremist Black Pride group in America) that in its well-cultivated wisdom and technology is able to solve all the world's big problems has as the simulation of an advanced technological civilization... South Korea! After seeing the credits at the end that showed that, all I could say (to twist Lincoln Steffens' infamous and deluded quote) "I have seen the future and it works".
If I had been rich I would have gotten my father the means of visiting the country that he had seen in the 1950's as a land of destitution, probably then on par with India at the time, for what it was. The only thing wrong with South Korea, so far as I can tell, is its neighbor -- arguably the worst neighbor that any country could ever have.
South Korea might be more authoritarian a society than many Americans would like... but such is a consequence of a high population density that requires more social organization than fits a land of yeoman farmers. Demographic change will compel Americans to live more like the Japanese or South Koreans if they live in the Acela corridor, Greater Seattle, southern Florida, or coastal California.
Quote:So, shut it down, shut it all down. That's the only way our shitty health care system can handle this thing. People over profits. I mean even if that means destroying the Neoliberal order, I'm all for it. Autarky uber alles.
It's the Reagan-Trump paradigm, a fusion of libertarian ideals with absolute plutocracy, that must die. The failure is obvious; Trump has taken it to the logical conclusion and people are dying. Were it not from COVID-19 it would eventually be from a War For Profit that goes far worse for America than did WWII because we would be on the wrong side of the ethical divide that gives the enemy cause for fighting back (protecting their dignity as people), mass hunger as the ideology allows tycoons and executives the power to decide who lives and who dies, or civil war in a proletarian revolution, or outright genocide. I hate to defend something awful as an alternative to something far worse but that can be how one judges a Crisis Era, but here we have it. We must defeat Donald Quisling Trump in 2020 -- but we must also reshape our national character so that we do not end up with a leader more competent, cunning, and politically slick.
COVID-19 is killing people at the rate typical of a Crisis War, so it can be the defining event of this Crisis Era. After this, much more of America will be ready for major reforms even if they come with more regulation, changes in business practices (especially in labor-management relations), changes in the educational system, and closing some of the loopholes in our political system so that we can better thwart any ruthless and fanatical leader who would use those loopholes to impose despotism or dictatorship. Trump has been part of a Gang That Can't Shoot Straight. He made the mistake of purging the Republican Party before shutting down, co-opting, regulating, or outlawing the opposition. Someone else intent on establishing a plutocratic, theocratic dictatorship -- let us say a Christian version of Iran or a system aping the People's Republic of China except for having different icons (the Mount Rushmore Four + FDR) gutted of democracy instead of Marx, Engels, Lenin, Sun Yat Sen*, and Mao stripped of socialist pretensions.
Quote:And, you have to shut down every international flight to keep it from coming back. So, even if the transmission rate is lower in a warmer warmer weather, there's no worldwide immunity , so again, given globalism, the current pandemic is just one plane ride away from sparking a new outbreak. So, John, the only way to kill covid is to kill globalism. I'm all in favor of shutting down globalism for good. It's dead man walking anyway, so let's just nudge it off the cliff to the great beyond.
At this point it would be difficult to get me on any jetliner, helicopter, boat, train, or bus of any kind. So long as the COVID-19 plague is active, the Angel of Death is a fellow passenger on such a conveyance. If I were a religious person I would be leery of attending any religious service or procession. I would also avoid any picnics, fairs, festivals, parties, concerts, parades, protests, sporting events, or political rallies. We are not giving up on these; we will do those again as soon as they are safe. COVID-19 has made many things impossible for now. They will be back, and we will need to find ways in which to find virtual substitutes. I would not be surprised to find myself witnessing a virtual funeral. COVID-19 is the deranged killer who taunts us with the sick boast "KILL ME BEFORE I KILL AGAIN!"
Quote:Ohhh yeah, baby, burn, globalism, burn. The smell of burning balance sheets of elites smells good in the morning.
I would like to see America go back to relying upon small business and non-profit entities as the usual form of business operation. When such was so, more Americans had the opportunity to found businesses and to get ahead in life in the smaller, but much-less-bureaucratic organizations that we used to know. And, yes -- we need to see Donald Trump and those around him, and those who foster leadership like his in political and economic life, discredited as long as possible. Economics was far saner and safer when it depended upon personal savings and pay-as-you-go practice instead of MMT.
*Sun Yat-Sen was in fact an admirable figure, more democratic than the other icons of the People's Republic of China; he is much admired in Taiwan and among the Chinese diaspora. The People's Republic of China on the whole guts the less admirable parts of its national icons. Gutting the democratic heritage of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and both Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt would be even more objectionable.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-10-2020
** 10-Apr-2020 World View: Debt not money
vincecate Wrote:> Yes, printing money is like a drug to the economy, at some point
> it will fail. The way it fails is called hyperinflation. I really
> think we are getting close.
No it isn't. That's not even remotely possible. This is the opposite
of hyperinflation.
When people have tons of money, then they buy lots of things, creating
inflation.
But people have NO money today. They have the opposite. Instead of
tons of money, they have tons of debt, which is the opposite. They
have tons of interlocking debt.
They do not have the money to spend or the desire to spend, so there
won't be hyperinflation. You have a clue what's going on when the
federal government is tying its bailouts to requirements to spend. If
the government has to force people to spend there won't be inflation.
If people won't spend, then there'll be deflation, the opposite of
inflation.
The way the economy will fail is when somebody's margin call or
somebody's bankruptcy triggers a chain reaction of debt payment
failure. That's what a deflationary spiral is, as one bankruptcy
triggers another one. The principle of maximum ruin: The maximum
number of people are ruined to the maximum extent possible. Inflation
is a fantasy.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 04-10-2020
(04-07-2020, 09:34 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-07-2020, 04:10 PM)David Horn Wrote: If it doesn't happen in South Korea, don't expect it here.
Exactly my point. Widespread business closures never happened in South Korea, so we don't need them here. Masks did happen there, so we do need them here.
What differentiates South Korea and the US is widespread testing. They have it, and we don't.
Warren Dew Wrote:(04-07-2020, 08:29 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Covid-19 isn't a flu virus, so summer, no good.
There has been a study on Covid virus reproduction factor in China, which showed a correlation between increasing temperature and humidity, and decreased reproduction factor. Coronaviruses also cause common colds, which also tend to go away in summer. There's every evidence that it will become easier to control in summer - most likely generating a false sense of security, since summer doesn't last forever.
Agreed that free movement of people will take a long term hit. I think free movement of goods will take less of a hit.
If COVID-19 is temperature sensitive, then why has it been raging in Brazil and Australia during their summer?
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-10-2020
(04-10-2020, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: What differentiates South Korea and the US is widespread testing. They have it, and we don't.
Incorrect. Even adjusted for population, the US has more testing completed and ongoing now than South Korea did at the peak of their epidemic.
But hey, I get it. The Democratic line is to try to focus on red herrings like testing in the hopes of distracting from things that could save lives while permitting reopening of the economy, like widespread wearing of masks. After all, if people were saved from Covid-19 and economic devastation, President Trump might be reelected! Better that as many people die as possible so Biden has a chance instead, as far as the Democrats are concerned.
Quote:If COVID-19 is temperature sensitive, then why has it been raging in Brazil and Australia during their summer?
This may be a difficult thought for a leftist to comprehend, but just because one thing matters does not mean it's the only thing that matters. That's right, more than one thing can affect the course of the pandemic at the same time! Mindbending, isn't it?
In the case of Brazil and Australia, higher temperatures are compensating for their near complete lack of serious mitigation measures. They haven't even closed schools on a broad scale.
Southern Australia is going to have to start implementing real mitigation measures soon. Winter is coming.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-11-2020
(04-10-2020, 12:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 10-Apr-2020 World View: Debt not money
vincecate Wrote:> Yes, printing money is like a drug to the economy, at some point
> it will fail. The way it fails is called hyperinflation. I really
> think we are getting close.
No it isn't. That's not even remotely possible. This is the opposite
of hyperinflation.
When people have tons of money, then they buy lots of things, creating
inflation.
It's a speculative boom, a situation in which economic elites have more money than they have a sensible thing to do with while the non-rich either have none or (worse) are heavily in debt. Being heavily in debt for sustenance is arguably worse than being broke, at least financially. Debt is OK if it reduces living costs over the long haul (mortgage loans on a house) or create a better quality of life (owning a car as opposed to relying upon slow and unreliable mass transit) or the means of getting an above-average income (a degree in medicine or law). Otherwise, personal debt for living costs tends to pile up. Debt for sustenance is profitable for lenders who may be making more money than the manufacturer of something purchased on the "never-never" such as an overpriced television or cell phone. An economy based upon paying people in credit instead of genuine pay is itself a house of cards.
Quote:But people have NO money today. They have the opposite. Instead of
tons of money, they have tons of debt, which is the opposite. They
have tons of interlocking debt.
They do not have the money to spend or the desire to spend, so there
won't be hyperinflation. You have a clue what's going on when the
federal government is tying its bailouts to requirements to spend. If
the government has to force people to spend there won't be inflation.
If people won't spend, then there'll be deflation, the opposite of
inflation.
That was the problem before the COVID-19 plague. Multitudes have lost their jobs suddenly; those who have jobs find that there is much less to buy because the stores selling such things are closed. So guess what happens? The consumer economy gets a double-whammy. Know well: the securities market was in a speculative boom as late as February and that came to an abrupt end. It is best that unemployed people be expected to spend. A problem: people discover that they can do without much of the spending that they used to do with little thinking -- like mindless gambling, going to restaurants for indifferent food, bar-hopping, and impulse purchases.
OK, this is a good time to do labor-intensive household improvements such as painting and gardening, or trying one's hand at creative activities. People may find themselves abandoning one set of activities for another.
Much consumer debt will have to be written off. Securities values look based on the Dow this weak to be on the brink of recovery -- if they aren't in a sucker's rally. I have my prediction that after the current economic meltdown and during the transition to a 1T that we will go from a debt-driven economy to something more like a pay-as-you-go economy that fosters saving and investment instead of the borrow-and-spend ethos of 'conservative' Presidents such as Reagan, both Bushes, and Trump. I predict that formal education will lengthen as a norm in communities in which it is now below average (typically the Mountain and Deep South) and that it will be more tax-funded than reliant upon lending to students. I also notice that we are at the apparent end of the line for the era in which we can simply manufacture stuff so that people buy more and achieve bliss. Many of us are inundated with stuff. Just visit a Goodwill store (when those re-open). How much china do you really need? How many recorded movies do you really watch?
Quote:The way the economy will fail is when somebody's margin call or
somebody's bankruptcy triggers a chain reaction of debt payment
failure. That's what a deflationary spiral is, as one bankruptcy
triggers another one. The principle of maximum ruin: The maximum
number of people are ruined to the maximum extent possible. Inflation
is a fantasy.
Inflation and the collapse of speculative bubbles of course get their classic treatment in John Maynard Keynes' General Theory. Inflation can be stopped by taxing the Hell out of the economy. Speculative bubbles lose their attraction and result in severe downturns that require government to spend to put an end to the economic meltdown. We have not had severe inflation for a long time, but we now have the experience of the 2007-2009 meltdown and secondary memories (people who remember the 1929-1932 meltdown first-hand are now extremely rare). The 1929-1932 meltdown did not have consumer debt as a culprit.
Several cycles work together. The Generational cycle of Howe and Strauss suggests that collective memories from eighty years or so earlier vanish, and the restraints that traumatized kids from the time placed on doing the very things that those kids dreaded from the time lose their constituency as the once-traumatized kids pass into death and senility and lose their influence upon institutions. Thus the bad habits of the Roaring Twenties become possible again in the Double-Zero decade. A 19-year cycle of the securities markets (peaks to peaks, crashes to crashes, depression troughs to depression troughs, recoveries to recoveries, and speculative frenzies to speculative frenzies) operates... four cycles of nineteen years to twenty years suggests peaks in 1929 and 2005-2007 (if one looks at real estate prices, an economic crash in 1930 and 2008 (the real crash that led to the Great Depression was in 1930)... and roughly eighty years suggest the 3T/4T divide at the relevant times. (Allegedly, 1951, 1970, and 1989 were to be depression years, but other realities muted such). Maybe more relevant this time were the Crashes of 1921 and 2000 to what we are experiencing now. The Skowronek cycle suggests that a political paradigm starts by solving some problems (Reaganomics compelling young adults to reduce their expectations in life and accept dead-end jobs as a permanent solution to their need for sustenance; don't like the pay? Get a second such job to make ends meet!) only to become stale and ineffective as political leaders either can get no more good effects. Skowronek sees Carter and Trump as failures for either riding a dead horse (Carter) or going too far (Trump). The norm of having most people overworked and underpaid on behalf of investors and executives eventually destroys the consumer economy.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 04-11-2020
(04-10-2020, 05:37 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-10-2020, 01:42 PM)David Horn Wrote: What differentiates South Korea and the US is widespread testing. They have it, and we don't.
Incorrect. Even adjusted for population, the US has more testing completed and ongoing now than South Korea did at the peak of their epidemic.
But hey, I get it. The Democratic line is to try to focus on red herrings like testing in the hopes of distracting from things that could save lives while permitting reopening of the economy, like widespread wearing of masks. After all, if people were saved from Covid-19 and economic devastation, President Trump might be reelected! Better that as many people die as possible so Biden has a chance instead, as far as the Democrats are concerned.
Excuse me if I use real data rather than Trump-data. Here's a quick overview of how they did it.
Warren Dew Wrote:David Horn Wrote:If COVID-19 is temperature sensitive, then why has it been raging in Brazil and Australia during their summer?
This may be a difficult thought for a leftist to comprehend, but just because one thing matters does not mean it's the only thing that matters. That's right, more than one thing can affect the course of the pandemic at the same time! Mindbending, isn't it?
In the case of Brazil and Australia, higher temperatures are compensating for their near complete lack of serious mitigation measures. They haven't even closed schools on a broad scale.
Southern Australia is going to have to start implementing real mitigation measures soon. Winter is coming.
Nice try, but your contention is: the virus goes more-or-less dormant in high temperature and humidity. Bad containment practice can't make that less so, if it's not there in the first place.