Navigator Wrote:> This could mean, extrapolated to the entire population, that
> eventually 10% of the population (that would be about 30 million
> in the USA) would require hospitalization.

Higgenbotham Wrote:> https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1249016519574663169

> @Jkylebass

> Secretary xi is in trouble within China. According to my sources
> within, the party elite want xi gone. The Guangdong elite (Uncle
> Deng’s family) are beginning to rattle the cages of change against
> the supposed “emperor for life”. #XiJinping #china
> #ChinaLiedAndPeopleDied

> 12:48 PM · Apr 11, 2020

Guest Wrote:> How many of you know someone personally who died from it? Far as
> I know some 95 year old guy who was dying any way is the only one
> in my state, don't know anybody except one toddler who was sick
> for a day, no personal knowledge of anyone else.

> How many of you know someone who lost their job or business over
> this? Personally know many by name.

> This is horseshit and someone needs to be hanged for the
> damage.

• 1 that transmission is controlled
  
  
• 2 that health system capacities are in palace to detect, test,
  isolate and treat every case and test every contact
  
  
• 3 that outbreak risks are minimized in special settings like
  health facilities and nursing homes
  
  
• 4 that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools,
  and other places where it's essential for people to go.
  
  
• 5 that importation risks can be managed
  
  
• 6 that communities are fully educated , engaged, and empowered to
  adjust to the new norm.

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> Big News doesn't cover what is happening in developing countries
> very well. My in-laws in the Philippines have been on lock down
> for more than two weeks and probably will be until the end of
> April. Most people there don't have savings and depend on day to
> day work for money. My in-laws haven't had any work for a couple
> weeks and while they thought of ways to make things for sale, no
> one has money to buy them. They're going to be okay since we're
> sending them money to at least buy rice, but others are eating
> boiled bananas to survive. In comparison, people here and in
> Europe have it very easy. It's going to be the same story for some
> three quarters of the world's population. After a while
> desperation will exceed the possible risks of disease and the lock
> downs will have to end.

• Ecuador has streets filled with bodies.
  
  
• Spain has eased lockdown restrictions, even though the number of
  deaths is growing.
  
  
• South Korea, which has been held up as a model of successfully
  combating the virus, is suddenly seeing a resurgence of infections --
  which some people are call "reinfections" or "reactivations" in people
  who have previously been sick and recovered.
  
  
• Japan is refusing the impose any lockdown restrictions. Tokyo is
  being described as a new "hot spot," like NYC.
  
  
• Russia has reported the largest daily increase in infections yet,
  and Vladimir Putin is saying that the armed forces may have to be
  involved, whatever that means. Russia is a vast country, and the
  lockdowns will be different in different regions. China is closing
  its border to Russia.
  
  
• Nigeria is a huge country, where most people are extremely poor
  and need to work every day to feed their families. And now, the
  government is demanding that people stay at home and stop working for
  at least two weeks. Nigeria's problems are exacerbated by the fact
  that their principle export is oil, and the price of oil has
  crashed.
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan refuses to impose total lockdowns. Instead, he's
  imposing weekend lockdowns. That should work great.
  
  
• New York government Andrew Cuomo says that "the worst is over," as
  long as people continue to follow the lockdown rules.
  
  
• In Uganda, thousands of people are living in crowded refugee
  camps, having fled from the war in South Sudan. As Covid-19 begins to
  spread through the camp, the World Food Program (WFP) is being forced
  to cut rations in half, because of lack of international
  donations.
  
  
• China is the same and, as usual, everything that Chinese officials
  say is completely full of crap.

Quote:> "Starving rats are resorting to war and cannibalism to
> survive coronavirus lockdown ...

> “A restaurant all of a sudden closes now, which has happened by
> the thousands in not just New York City but coast to coast and
> around the world,” Corrigan said. “And those rats that were living
> by that restaurant [or] some place nearby, and perhaps for decades
> having generations of rats that depended on that restaurant food,
> well, life is no longer working for them, and they only have a
> couple of choices.”

> The resulting survival instinct is so strong, they’re even eating
> their own kind. “These rats are fighting with one another; now the
> adults are killing the young in the nest and cannibalizing the
> pups,” Corrigan said."

Higgenbotham Wrote:> https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/opinion/forward-this-letter-to-president-trump-to-everyone-your-can-overseas-governments/

> But for reference, consider the following (vis a vis the claims
> made in the letter). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo

> I've said before (tongue in cheek) that his computer may be
> missing a diode. But I think this time he is on the right track.
> Does it have to be precisely May 1? Don't know how any computer,
> missing diode or not, would be able to forecast that, as a
> shutdown is not an all or nothing proposition.

• 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic
  
• 1929 Stock market panic and crash
  
• 1940-45 World War II

vincecate Wrote:> To be fair, the Spanish flu started during WWI and WWIII has not
> started yet.

• 1914-1919 World War I + Spanish Flu pandemic
  
• 1929-33 Stock market panic and crash
  
• 1940-45 World War II

vincecate Wrote:> When I look for Generational Dynamics WebLog the last post I see
> is March 27. Just wanted to check that recent hosting changes had
> not left it not showing new posts...

vincecate Wrote:> When I look for Generational Dynamics WebLog the last post I see
> is March 27. Just wanted to check that recent hosting changes had
> not left it not showing new posts...

Quote:> "1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million
> Originated in China, Historians Say

> For decades, scientists have debated where in the world the
> pandemic started, variously pinpointing its origins in France,
> China, the American Midwest, and beyond. Without a clear location,
> scientists have lacked a complete picture of the conditions that
> bred the disease and factors that might lead to similar outbreaks
> in the future.

> The deadly "Spanish flu" claimed more lives than World War I,
> which ended the same year the pandemic struck. Now, new research
> is placing the flu's emergence in a forgotten episode of World War
> I: the shipment of Chinese laborers across Canada in sealed train
> cars.

> Historian Mark Humphries of Canada's Memorial University of
> Newfoundland says that newly unearthed records confirm that one of
> the side stories of the war—the mobilization of 96,000 Chinese
> laborers to work behind the British and French lines on World War
> I's Western Front—may have been the source of the pandemic. ...

> "This is about as close to a smoking gun as a historian is going
> to get," says historian James Higgins, who lectures at Lehigh
> University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, and who has researched the
> 1918 spread of the pandemic in the United States. "These records
> answer a lot of questions about the pandemic."

> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/

• Asian flu of 1957
  
• Hong Kong flu of 1968
  
• 1997 Bird Flu outbreak
  
• 2003 Sars epidemic
  
• Covid-19

vincecate Wrote:> Almost everywhere is less than 300 deaths per million population
> from covid-19, so 0.03% overall. The vast majority of these are
> older and have co-morbidities. As people realize that the 3.4%
> deathrate is just not true, the panic will fade.

• NHS must be able to cope without being overwhelmed.
  
  
• Sustained and continuing fall in death rates
  
  
• Sustained and continuing fall in rate of infection
  
  
• Testing needs to be ready and there has to be enough PPE for
  everyone
  
  
• Be sure that there's no risk of a secondary wave that would
  overwhelm the NHS.

Guest Wrote:> https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/did-xi-jinping-deliberately-sicken-the-world/

> Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World? PRC moral turpitude
> forces us to consider the unthinkable.

• Three crises merge: pandemic, stock market bubble, war
  
• Returning to work -- the timeline
  
• Potential stock market crisis
  
• Potential war crisis
  
• The source and course of the pandemic in China
  
• The economists and analysts
  
• The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) hoax
  
• The three cataclysmic crises
  

• 1914-1919: Spanish Flu pandemic, following World War I
  
• 1929-33: Stock market bubble bursts, causing panic and crash
  
• 1940-45: World War II

• March 1918 - 7.4 -- Spanish Flu pandemic
  
• September 1929 - 20.2 -- Just before stock market crash
  
• March 2020 - 23.9 -- recent P/E ratio

• There are accusations that Covid-19 was developed at the Wuhan
  Institute Of Virology as a bio-weapon. However, that accusation is
  rejected by almost all responsible experts.
  
  
• There are accusations that the virus occurred naturally, and was
  being studied at the Wuhan Institute Of Virology, but escaped.
  According to one story, a girl working at the Institute became
  infected, and gave it to her fiancé, who works at the "wet market"
  where the virus spread. This accusation is considered possible.
  
  
• There are accusations that China purposely lied about the virus,
  and coerced the WHO to vouch for those lies, in order to guarantee
  that the pandemic spread to the rest of the world. The motive would
  have been to avoid the embarrasing and intolerable situation where the
  virus spreads across China, but other countries are not infected. The
  US administration is investigating this accusation.
  
  
• These accusations are supported by the fact that China blocked all
  airplane flights from Wuhan into other parts of China, but permitted
  flights from Wuhan to any other country. This suggests consciousness
  of guilt.

• A country like the United States, which controls and prints
  its own "fiat" currency, can "print" as much as it wants without
  having to repay it.
  
  
• The only problem is that it might cause hyperinflation, as in the
  case of Germany's Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe.
  
  
• If that happens, then just raise taxes, and the hyperinflation
  will disappear.

• 1914-1919: Spanish Flu pandemic, following World War I
  
• 1929-33: Stock market bubble bursts, causing panic and crash
  
• 1940-45: World War II

• The MMT engorgement is creating tens of trillions of dollars
  of interlocking debt throughout the world. In the case of a major
  sovereign bankruptcy, central banks around the world would be rushing
  to fill the gap by issuing more debt, but in the case of a large
  bankruptcy, they would be unable to do so, and the bankruptcy would
  propagate throughout the world economy in a chain reaction.
  
  
• The economic lockdowns, social distancing and self-isolation have
  had disastrous effects on productivity in all countries that have
  implemented it, including China and the United States. Even when the
  lockdowns end, it will take years to restore productivity to its
  former levels. This is not speculation. Last week, the International
  Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast the worst global recession since the
  1930s Great Depression. This means that the money require to make
  debt repayments will not be available in many cases, resulting in the
  chain of bankruptcies described above.
  
  
• Covid-18 has frozen some military plans. But in Rakhine State and
  Hong Kong, Burma (Myanmar) and China, respectively, are taking
  advantage of the West's pandemic distraction to launch belligerent
  attacks. In the spirit of "Never let a crisis go to waste," it's
  possible that there are many previously unplanned military actions are
  being planned. In a generational Crisis era, these military actions
  are much more likely to spiral into larger than they would have been,
  say, in the 1990s Unraveling era.
  
  
• China is overdue for a mass anti-government rebellion, such as the
  ones the country has had at regular intervals throughout its millennia
  of history. The last two of these massive rebellions were the the
  Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49)
  -- and both of these rebellions began in Guangdong province, adjacent
  to Hong Kong, and spread north. China is overdue for a new massive
  civil war, and China is currently experiencing a major economic
  setback. This could trigger a new rebellion.
  
  
• As I wrote in my book, "War between China and Japan," China is
  planning a war of extermination against Japan, to get revenge for
  Japan's atrocities during WW II, and is planning a war of annexation
  with Taiwan. China may decide to take advantage of the pandemic
  crisis to launch these wars.
  
  
• The "return to work" plans described above apply to the US,
  Europe, and other developed nations. But these don't apply at all to
  underdeveloped nations in Africa, the Mideast, Asia, and South and
  Central America, with a poor or non-existent health services
  infrastructure, and where poverty and crowding make social distancing
  and isolation impossible. Covid-19 is going to "burn though" these
  nations, triggering ethnic, religious and tribal wars, resulting in
  enormous poverty and death, and this is going to spill over into the
  developed nations.

• Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (Investopedia, 24-Sep-2019)
  
• IMF Sees Great Lockdown Recession as Worst Since Depression (Bloomberg, 14-Apr-2020)
  
• IMF says the world will 'very likely' experience worst recession since the 1930s (CNBC, 14-Apr-2020)
  
• The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression (International Monetary Fund (IMF), 14-Apr-2020)
  
• 1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say (National Geographic, 24-Jan-2014)
  
• Rick Gladstone / previous pandemics / Coronavirus Outbreak Risks Reviving Stigma for China (NY Times, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• Starving rats are resorting to war and cannibalism to survive coronavirus lockdown (NY Post, 13-Apr-2020)
  
• Rabobank: If We Don't Get The Reopening Just Right We Can Start The Clock To The Second Infection Wave (Zero Hedge, 16-Apr-2020)
  
• Scarce resources in Syria's rebel-held areas amid COVID-19 fears (Al-Jazeera, 14-Apr-2020)
  
• China / Covid-19 / Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World? (Diplomat, 15-Apr-2020)
  
• China / Police in Hong Kong arrest 15 activists amid autonomy warnings (Guardian, London, 18-Apr-2020)
  
• Myanmar military steps up attacks as coronavirus spreads (Al-Jazeera, 16-Apr-2020)
  
• Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing | April 17, 2020 (White House, 17-Apr-2020)
  
• What's A 'Reagent' And Why Is It Delaying Expanded Coronavirus Testing? (RFERL, 18-Apr-2020)
  
• 'A house divided against itself cannot stand': NY Gov. Cuomo takes a swipe at Trump by channeling Abraham Lincoln and says there's 'no time for politics' as he announces state's daily death rate has dropped to the lowest since April 1 (Dail yMail, London, 18-Apr-2020)

• Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu (22-Mar-2020)
  
  
• Iran's army to monitor entire population for Wuhan Coronavirus (14-Mar-2020)
  
  
• Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world (02-Mar-2020)
  
  
• China's coronavirus threatens Xi Jinping's Mandate from Heaven (25-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Genocide of Rohingyas in Burma (Myanmar) appears to be almost complete (27-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Coronavirus pandemic threatens 3.5 million people in Syria's Idlib (27-Mar-2020)
  
  
• Hong Kong holds massive peaceful pro-democracy demonstration (09-Dec-2019)
  
  
• Explanation of Price/Earnings ratio and Stock Valuations (28-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Alan Greenspan vs Ben S. Bernanke: The man without agony (29-Oct-2005)

(04-18-2020, 02:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Overreaction to Covid-19 on the Theodore Roosevelt left the
> Chinese with the only aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific:

> https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/13/china-sends-aircraft-carrier-near-japan-taiwan-us-navy-struggles-coronavirus.html

> Hopefully the Navy will take this lesson to heart and toughen up a
> bit, though unfortunately it may just be ignored.

John Wrote:> 19-Apr-20 World View -- How three major 20th century crises are
> merging into a single mega-crisis today

> The Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) hoax

> ** 19-Apr-20 World View -- How three major 20th century crises are merging into a single mega-crisis today
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200419.htm#e200419

Guest Wrote:> This the best analysis you've ever written,John.

> I'm in South Korea. We're in a strange holding pattern here. All
> of my surviving family now back in Asia. We have houses in
> America, but no way to get back. I don't know if any of us would
> be any safer in the US. Somehow I doubt it. I