Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-05-2020 (06-05-2020, 02:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Lol! Every day you seem more delusional than you did the previous day. It is just a daydream. For once I was going for a LOL. No worse than the Republican "Lock her up." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2020 ** 05-Jun-2020 World View: You've got to have a dream (06-05-2020, 02:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Lol! Every day you seem more delusional than you did the previous (06-05-2020, 02:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > It is just a daydream. For once I was going for a LOL. No worse Fair enough. As Bloody Mary sings in the Broadway musical South Pacific: "You've got to have a dream, if you don't have a dream, how you gonna have a dream come true?" RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-05-2020 (06-05-2020, 02:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(06-05-2020, 02:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: It is just a daydream. For once I was going for a LOL. No worse than the Republican "Lock her up." While I will stick to my inherent individual God granted Right to Daydream, on a more serious note I would just as soon decriminalize politics. Of late, the major candidates have been facing investigations, whether you consider them merited or not. That depends on how rabidly one tends to be ideologically biased. People have gone after Hillary, Trump, and Hunter. Even Obama was accused of not being a US citizen. I'd just as soon this become one more relic of the Trump years and find it forgotten. Still, it would help if people who had done questionable things were not nominated. Maybe next set of mass protests. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2020 ** 05-Jun-2020 World View: Philippines UN Hague Tribunal decision on South China Sea Guest Wrote:> The Philippines will just be a battlefield, nothing more. It's You're right that Duterte gave in to Xi Jinping, but Xi explicitly threatened war if Duterte hadn't done so: ** 11-Sep-18 World View -- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180911.htm#e180911 ** 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e181121.htm#e181121 The Philippine people hate the Chinese people. Also, the Chinese people have been contemptuous of the Philippines people for a long time: ** 10-May-12 World View -- China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e120510.htm#e120510 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2020 ** 05-Jun-2020 World View: Jobs report Guest Wrote:> According to Yahoo Finance reporter , the May jobs report: US I'm not sure what your point is, since nobody claims that there are 2.5 million new jobs. The whole point of the "paycheck protection program" was to keep people solvent so that furloughed people can come right back to work, and apparently it worked very well, much to the surprise of many people. As for the economy generally, the world is in a global deflationary spiral, headed for a major financial crisis, the worst in history. At the same time, the world is headed for WW III, and the US is headed for war with China. The talk about a new American civil war is nonsense. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2020 Quiet American" Wrote:> This has been the longest 6 months of my life. I wish I could tell you that things will get better, but if I did, then you would know I was lying. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-05-2020 (06-05-2020, 09:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The talk about a new American civil war is nonsense. Agreed. The reds wouldn't launch a war against their own guy, and the blues are content with the chances of peacefully gathering power. Trump has chosen to go against the science on COVID, and against the people on police racism. I see one more time the flip flop flips, but most people seem to be favoring their ideologic bias. China? You are still focused on the one aspect of xenophobia of the Industrial Age to the exclusion of the leaders and elites having to be greedy about winning something. We'll see. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 06-06-2020 (06-05-2020, 02:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 05-Jun-2020 World View: Refusing to concede This is one occasion that's relatively soon, so we'll see how it plays. Trump is one-of-kind in the worst sense of the term. He's adequately putrid to do something that crazy, so hold the LOLs for later. And fwiw, I'm not sure how the institutions inside and outside of government will react if it happens either. Institutions consist of human beings who, being flawed by nature, are intrinsically unpredictable in FOAK situations. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-06-2020 A few thoughts about xenophobia. I do not consider myself particularly hateful towards the people of Russia or China. I can see the ugly times that led them towards revolution. I can feel pity for them for having had to endure Stalin and Mao. I can think poorly of their leaders and elites autocratic decisions to expand, and point out a need for containment, for the Domino Theory. Autocrats are quite willing to see the people suffer for their own gain. But that does not mean I hate the people. I distrust the policy of their leaders, yes. But I do not particularly hate the people. I feel this shared among the folk I’ve talked to, though I acknowledge Massachusetts as perhaps biased on this. This was once much less true of the US. Back in the Gilded Age we had an attitude regarding blacks, natives, Asians, the latest wave of immigrants from Europe, most anyone not lily pure, and some that were. Expanding it to the Hun at need was easy. It was us vs them with them being expandable at need. This started to change when the Chinese became our ally in World War II. It expanded again with the civil rights movement. With the protests we are seeing today, it is expanding even as we speak. So naturally I am suspicious when someone tries to predict wars depending on an Industrial Age understanding of xenophobia and ignoring the factor of leadership and elite gain in prosecuting a war. Xenophobia has changed. The leaders and elites, alas, have not. War is still a racket. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-06-2020 "A black man’s death was blamed on democrat cops in a democrat city with a democrat police chief and a democrat mayor in a democrat state with a democrat governor. Then democrats got together and burned democrat cities. The democrat mayors and police chiefs allowed black businesses and neighborhoods to burn. Black people died in the riots." It's all Trump's fault. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-06-2020 (06-06-2020, 12:39 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: "A black man’s death was blamed on democrat cops in a democrat city with a democrat police chief and a democrat mayor in a democrat state with a democrat governor. Then democrats got together and burned democrat cities. The democrat mayors and police chiefs allowed black businesses and neighborhoods to burn. Black people died in the riots." There is a reason the people are looking to the Democrats to change the violence and racism of the police. Changing the culture is not easy. The mass protests are necessary if you are going to get a cultural reboot. Trump? It is not directly his fault. He did encourage racism for his personal gain. He did change the atmosphere to encourage the open display of racism. It might have effected things but there is no direct link. It is not acceptable to a lot of people. I assume you watch the news? More of a concern is that he would rather intensify the violence than listen to the people. That is more an after the event reaction. I believe it will hurt him in November. You know, I believe the resurgence of racism and its open display was in answer to Obama. Trump was one enabling factor. On the other hand, the current wave of protests is a response to the resurgence of racism. You go to one extreme and you swing to the other…. Then you swing back and then some. The racist resurgence went against the arrow of progress. In particular, it goes against equality. In the long run, I anticipated that equality would continue long term gains. I confess, I didn’t anticipate the American push for all men being equal under law coming this hard and this soon. Still, there it is. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-09-2020 ** 08-Jun-2020 World View: China vs Taiwan Trevor Wrote:> I've looked at both Taiwan's and China's current military That's a really great analysis. However, on one point I would disagree -- and I know we've discussed this in the past. You say: "The United States is very much in a mood of: "Screw foreign entanglements; let people deal with their own problems!"" A Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a generational Regeneracy event, and we'd be at war with China within 24 hours. If you'd like a recent example, after 9/11/2001, we were at war with Afghanistan by the end of the day. The Democrats hated Bush, but they didn't object to the military response. Compare the Democratic response to the Afghan war with their response to the Iraq war. That's why I keep saying that the war won't begin with some massive invasion, like the invasion of Poland or the bombing of Pearl Harbor. It will begin with some minor event, like the Marco Polo Bridge incident, that spirals into full-scale war over time. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 06-09-2020 9/11 was an attack on the US mainland though. An attack on Taiwan would not be. That said, I suspect we could provide enough resupply to Taiwan to keep them going for a long time, even without direct military intervention. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-09-2020 ** 09-Jun-2020 World View: Defending Taiwan (06-09-2020, 01:19 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > 9/11 was an attack on the US mainland though. An attack on Taiwan This subject is currently being debated in the gdxforum by people who know a great deal more about it than I do. http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&start=3560 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-10-2020 ** 09-Jun-2020 World View: Ladakh border conflict - India vs China utahbob Wrote:> I don’t want to sound like a have roll of tin foil on my head, but I think you're absolutely right to raise the alarm on this issue. I wrote briefly about it a few weeks ago when you previously raised the issue. *** 25-May-2020 World View: India-China border conflict in Ladakh *** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=52293#p52293 What's remarkable about this situation is its similarity to the Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggered World War II. In particular, both the Indian and Chinese populations are in highly nationalistic and xenophobic moods, and this is the kind of mood that leads to a "shoot first, look later" situation. All it would take is one gunshot to trigger an escalation situation. A lot of people might say, "Why would they do that?" People get confused and think that things are the same as in the 1990s, when everyone was in the mood to compromise. Today, compromise is rare. If there are Chinese and Indian forces facing each other across this border, then a lit match could spread a fire rapidly. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-10-2020 ** 10-Jun-2020 World View: Japan and Taiwan Guest Wrote:Xeraphim1 Wrote:Guest Wrote:Japan would go to war to help Taiwan because the Japanese know that they would be next. You don't understand how the Japanese think. Even Japanese leftists would support a war with the mainlanders in the event of an attack on Taiwan. I recently posted an article on this subject: ** 24-May-20 World View -- Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200524.htm#e200524 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-12-2020 ** 12-Jun-2020 World View: Derek Chauvin - the Hmong connection Navigator Wrote:> John, There are a number of reports that the cop that killed Floyd Well, as you may know, the person who claimed that they worked closely and "bumped heads" has now recanted his story, adding a new bizarre twist to this whole story. -- Man who claimed George Floyd and Derek Chauvin "bumped heads" changes story https://www.cbsnews.com/news/george-floyd-derek-chauvin-nightclub-bumped-heads-changes-story/ (CBS News, 11-Jun-2020) But in this situation, I'm not sure it makes any difference whether they "bumped heads" or not. Over the years, I've known many people who "bumped heads" in the workplace, without leading to anything like the horrific behavior that Chauvin exhibited. If Floyd had had an affair with Chauvin's wife, then Chauvin's behavior might have made sense. But under the circumstances, I still think that Chauvin's behavior was motivated by some connection to the KKK. Perhaps as the case evolves, something will come out that reveals the situation, one way or the other. Little has been reported about Chauvin's past, except that he's married to a former Mrs. Minnesota. She's filing for divorce now, and is apparently planning to screw him in every possible way (except sex).
She's an ethnic Hmong and a Hmong activist, born in Laos, but fled to Thailand and became a refugee in the late 1970s, when Vietnam was committing genocide. Here's a Human Rights Watch report on the genocide: Quote:> "The Hmong capitol has disappeared. When the Laos and So Chauvin would, of course, be very well aware of this recent history of his activist wife's ethnic group. Given the way that the Vietnamese treated the Hmong, maybe Chauvin decided that he was letting Floyd off easy. There still might be a connection to the KKK, but this situation gets more complex every day. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 06-12-2020 (06-12-2020, 02:11 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Little has been reported about Chauvin's past, except that he's married to a former Mrs. Minnesota. She's filing for divorce now, and is apparently planning to screw him in every possible way (except sex). Couldn't happen to a finer guy. I doubt he needed a KKK link. He had other channels to express his feelings. As you say, it is apt to come out. How many biographies of Charles Manson have been written? This guy will likely get some too. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-12-2020 *** 13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh **** Chinese soldiers mobilized to the northwest plateau near Ladakh in images shown on state television (SCMP, Weibo) China has occupied more than sixty square kilometres of Indian territory in eastern Ladakh, according to a senior Indian Army source. China has mobilized thousands of paratroopers, armoured vehicles and equipment in a military drill on a plateau near Ladakh, the border region disputed by India and China. According to state media reports, they could be deployed "within hours" to the Ladakh region. According to India's media, China's army has been carrying out manoeuvres to occupy Indian territory and build concrete defenses on it. China now has at least two group armies, three air force bases, and one rocket force base in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with over 200,000 soldiers conducting combat training. These steps signal a dramatic escalation in border tensions by China's military. In response, India has been reinforcing its forces on the India-China border. So far, not a shot has been fired on either side, since that would amount to a declaration of full-scale war, but that there have been clashes anyway. Seventy Indian troops were injured in fist-fighting and stone-throwing as they tried to stop the advance. India must now prepare for a two-front war, with the Pakistan military on one side and China's army in the east. Pakistan and China have been doing combined combat training since 2011. Indian army sources say that that similar Chinese army troop movement is occurring in multiple locations in all three sectors -- western, middle and eastern -- of the 3,488-km boundary that India shares with China. While the current faceoff has been restricted to eastern Ladakh, which is in the western sector, armies on both sides have augmented their military strength even in the middle and eastern sectors. Divisional commanders on both the Chinese and India side met on Wednesday to discuss moving troops back. Nothing was resolved, although negotiations are expected to continue in the near future. The United Nations is calling for restraint. UN officials undoubtedly believe that a border war would be "unacceptable," and they would not hesitate to take firm action by calling a committee meeting or a press conference. Russia would blame the United States. **** **** Significance of the Ladakh border confrontation **** As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire. World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did it begin with the invasion of Poland. As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted" soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.) So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter. What's remarkable about the Ladach border situation is its similarity to the Marco Polo Bridge incident that triggered World War II. In particular, both the Indian and Chinese populations are in highly nationalistic and xenophobic moods, and this is the kind of mood that leads to a "shoot first, look later" situation. All it would take is one gunshot to trigger an escalation situation. And there are similar potential border confrontations all along the 3,488-km boundary that separates China from India. This doesn't mean that the Ladakh border incident will lead to full scale war. In fact, confrontations like the one going on in Ladach are not uncommon, and they're settled quickly. But this particular confrontation is raising international concern because positions on both sides appear to be hardening. China is occupying Indian land, and will not back off. In the border confrontation in May 2018, China did back off, possibly because the confrontation was taking place Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, and Bhutan asked India to prevent a China takeover. It was speculated at the time that China backed off because China was not ready for a full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for a full-scale war. What's remarkable about these border situations, alternating between negotiations and reinforcements, is their similarity to the incident that triggered World War II. With nationalism and xenophobia growing on both sides of this enormous border, with troop buildups at several locations along this border, it's quite possible that one of the India-China border confrontations will be the trigger that spirals into a major war. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau, Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan, Rape of Nanking Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-13-2020 ** 13-Jun-2020 World View: Xenophobia (06-06-2020, 08:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > A few thoughts about xenophobia. Strictly speaking, the word "xenophobia," which is one of my favorite words ever, doesn't mean hatred of some people, though it may. If you go back to the Greek roots, it literally means "fear of foreigners or strangers." My father once told me that in ancient Greece it referred to invaders from the north. It has a much broader reach than the word "racism." It's an umbrella word that can refer any of a number of emotions towards another nation or society: Fear of power, fear of invasion, jealousy, anger, hatred, impatience, annoyance, and so forth. I use the word "xenophobia" frequently to describe an attitude of the people of one nation or society to another that might lead to war in this generational Crisis era. It's frequently used in conjunction with the world "nationalism," which refers to an inward emotion, while "xenophobia" refers to an outward emotion. This is contrasted to the Unraveling era of the 1990s, when different words would be used, such as xenophilia, accepting, compromising, impartiality, or indifference. |