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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 07-11-2020

(07-11-2020, 10:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The authoritarian Right excuses its own errors and shortcomings due to the inadequacy of people that shows the supposedly-manifest need for economic and bureaucratic hierarchy in which people at the economic apex treat the proles and peons badly. The Authoritarian Right condemns the efforts of others to find innovative solutions -- many of which fail -- on the ground that such shows the supposedly-manifest need for economic and bureaucratic hierarchy in which people at the economic apex treat the proles and peons badly.

More syllables than you need. Just say the elites are greedy. Wink

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-11-2020

...and cruel. ...and selfish... and ruthless... and reckless.

Pathological narcissism seems to be a marked characteristic of Boomer elites who have always had life good and who have thought of people who have endured some misfortune as having shown that they deserve such.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 07-11-2020

Well, they need some sort of excuse for being greedy? That's as good a deflection as any.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-11-2020

(07-11-2020, 11:21 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Well, they need some sort of excuse for being greedy?  That's as good a deflection as any.


People are remarkably adept at finding excuses for their horrible behavior. OK, "pathological narcissist", "sociopath", and "psychopath" don't cut it. 

Maybe a pathological narcissist like Donald Trump gets away with it for a long time. Maybe fifty years. Figure, though, that someone who has been obliged to humble himself to do a servile tasks or hard labor just to survive in a rough time has some respect for people who have done such.  

I remember people telling me that such hardship built character. Regrettably those people, largely Lost and early GI, are no longer around to teach that lesson. The important thing that one learned from such people is that doing such was no hindrance to doing something more rewarding (and intellectually demanding) later in life. Working smart is usually much more rewarding than working hard. But one must ordinarily work hard before one gets the chance to work smart.

I have yet to associate Trump with any virtue. He was lucky to have invested heavily in real estate in New York City, where property values were depressed at one time and now are seriously inflated -- as opposed to Detroit in the 1950's, where property values were inflated (when the auto industry was king of the American economy) and where values have plummeted -- and even suburban property values have been nearly stagnant. Or for that matter, other big cities in New York. Upstate New York used to be a good place to live; about 30 years ago Rochester was great. It is now a wreck, and real estate values show that.

(Yes, Silicon Valley is even better for landlords, but at some point it could be another Gary. You know Gary... the four-letter crossword clue for "a bad place" when "slum" and "Hell" somehow fail to fit...

I have a theory that people develop vices because they can get away with them. K-12 teachers get paid well enough to be able to afford at the least a one-bedroom apartment or (in rural areas) a house, a car (except in New York City), maybe a vacation, a household pet, and some books and recorded entertainments -- but certainly not a drug habit. Highly-successful entertainers have money to burn, which is not to say that they burn it (Bob Hope, Bing Crosby, Fred McMurray, Lawrence Welk, and Fess Parker invested heavily in real estate in southern California... and got even richer). Think of such promising musicians as Jimi Hendrix, Jim Morrison, and Janis Joplin, who died young of drug overdoses. On the average NBA players have several children out of wedlock by different women... not every one of those NBA players, but there are some who have a girlfriend in each city in which they play basketball. (I could make a sexual pun about what they do off court, but I refrain out of decency).    The typical K-12 teacher is juggling bills and somehow getting by. I believe that it was Robin Williams who said that cocaine is Nature's way of telling you that you are making too much money. 

A K-12 teacher is fired for having a drug problem. One cannot have such an influence in the classroom. Having been a substitute, I can assure you that there are few more anti-drug people than K-12 teachers. But an entertainer? Go to rehab in a resort-like setting, cool off a bit, and people will be clamoring for the dance, song, and punch-lines. At the extreme of getting away with it is what used to be White America's Favorite Black Man, Bill Cosby. Nobody wanted to believe that he was a serial rapist... which he is.

...Entertainers are the people by profession most likely to use drugs and cheat on spouses. They have the means and the cover that many of the  rest of us lack.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 07-13-2020

The AP has the US upping the resistance to China's militarization of the East China Sea.

This is not new. The US has been sending warships occasionally into areas claimed by China. At the same time it is quoting and supporting current international law. They are just upping the language a bit. They and China recently also had 'naval exercises' in the area.

With the India situation, the new laws in Hong Kong, and a recent media blip on Vladivostok and Russia, they are continuing to surround themselves with trouble.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-14-2020

(07-13-2020, 05:03 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP has the US upping the resistance to China's militarization of the East China Sea.

This is not new.  The US has been sending warships occasionally into areas claimed by China.  At the same time it is quoting and supporting current international law.  They are just upping the language a bit.  They and China recently also had 'naval exercises' in the area.  

With the India situation, the new laws in Hong Kong, and a recent media blip on Vladivostok and Russia, they are continuing to surround themselves with trouble.

The Chinese are no less susceptible to hubris than we are, so I'm not surprised that they have chosen to push the envelope to the limit.  The last time the Chinese were able to push their neighbors around at will was in the 19th century, and they miss being the bully on the block.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-14-2020

** 14-Jul-2020 World View: China, the bully

(07-14-2020, 12:44 PM)David Horn Wrote: > the last time the Chinese were able to push their neighbors around
> at will was in the 19th century

When and where was that?

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-14-2020

(07-14-2020, 02:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Jul-2020 World View: China, the bully

(07-14-2020, 12:44 PM)David Horn Wrote: >   the last time the Chinese were able to push their neighbors around
>   at will was in the 19th century

When and where was that?

Make that the 16th century, with a few provisos.  The late empire was pretty bleak with lots of conquering, but it's fair to say that the conquering was internal -- and highly costly.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-14-2020

*** 15-Jul-20 World View -- China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement
  • Iran's history with the 'capitulatory system'
  • Iran's Chabahar Port deal with India is at risk

****
**** China, Iran draft 25-year $400 billion trade and military agreement
****

[Image: g200714b.jpg]
A hearty laugh is shared in December by Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif, left, and Miao Lu, secretary-general of Center for China & Globalization (AFP)

A leaked agreement being negotiated by China and Iran has little
chance of being implemented, but if it were, it would have
significance going back through centuries of Iran's history. China
would invest $400 billion over a 25 year period in infrastructure and
military projects in Iran, in return for discounts on Iranian oil.

The agreement is very much in the pattern of China's Belt and Road
(BRI) agreements with numerous countries, using "debt trap diplomacy."
The typical pattern is that China lends an enormous sum of money to a
country, and the country then uses that money to pay Chinese companies
for parts and services, and then pays salaries of thousands of Chinese
workers that will develop the projects. Once the target company fails
to make its debt repayments, China seizes control of the country's
strategic assets. China has used these secret agreements to acquire
and control ports and other strategic assets in Sri Lanka, Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Zambia, Kenya -- through its "debt
trap diplomacy." Several other countries, including Pakistan and the
Maldives, are at risk.

The draft agreement is secret, but the terms that are leaked look very
similar to BRI agreements with other countries. According to the NY
Times, which obtained the leaked agreement, it cites almost 100
projects, including airports, high-speed railways and subways. China
would develop free-trade zones in Maku, in northwestern Iran, and in
Abadan, where the Shatt al-Arab river flows into the Persian Gulf, and
on the gulf island Qeshm. The agreement also includes proposals for
China to build the infrastructure for a 5G telecommunications network,
to offer the new Chinese Global Positioning System, Beidou, and to
help Iran's government control the internet in the same way that China
does. China will have access to Iran's military airbases.

A secretive element relates to the military dimension of the
agreement, whereby China will have 5,000 members of its security
forces present on the ground in Iran. Once again, this is a typical
requirement. China lends money to Iran, Iran uses the money for
Chinese parts and services, and to pay the salary of Chinese workers,
the Chinese workers send the money back to their families in China.
So China gets the money back, and Iran still has to repay the loan, so
that Iran essentially has to repay the loan twice.

China will be investing nearly $400 billion in Iran’s oil, gas and
petrochemicals industries in the first five years of the agreement. In
return, China will get priority to bid on any new project in Iran that
is linked to these sectors. China will also get a 12 percent discount
and it can delay payments by up to two years. In addition, China will
essentially be able to pay in any currency it desires. In total, China
will receive discounts of nearly 32 percent.

****
**** Iran's history with the 'capitulatory system'
****

The "capitulatory system" of the Middle East was developed starting in
the 1500s during the rise of the Ottoman empire (Turkey). A
capitulation was an agreement between two countries to permit one
country to grant various concessions to another country. Under this
system, the French were granted by the Ottomans to establish trading
posts and consular missions in Syria and Egypt. Later, agreements
with England and other Europeans provided for imports of steel, led,
tin, gold and silver into Turkey.

In the 1800s, the capitulatory system reached Persia (Iran). After
Persia's humiliating military losses to the Russians and English,
Persia was forced to accept concessions as "reparations." Economic
concessions fell into three major categories: public utilities,
financial enterprises, and exploration for and exploitation of natural
resources. I described this capitulatory system in detail in my 2018
book, "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession
to Redraw the Map of the Middle East."

After decades of these concessions, where the Russians and English
took advantage of the Iranians, and the Iranian politicians and
clerics were enriched through corruption, there was a backlash. For
example, the tobacco concession granted a monopoly on both the
purchase and sale of tobacco within Persia to an English company for a
period of fifty years, and during this period Iran's rulers received
enormous kickbacks, while Iran's tobacco merchants suffered. Huge
anti-government protests led to the anti-government Tobacco Revolt
(1890-92).

In the political debate of that time, a merchant wrote:

<QUOTE>"By what laws does the government sell our national
rights to foreign racketeers? These rights, according to both the
principles of Islam and traditional laws of Iran, belong to the
people of our country. These rights are the means of our
livelihood. The government, however, barters the Moslem property
to the unbelievers. By what law? Have the people of Iran died
that the government is auctioning away their
inheritance?"<END QUOTE>

Today, the proposed Iran-China draft agreement is receiving sharp
criticism that sounds very similar to the above criticism of the 1890
tobacco concession. Some lawmakers are saying that it feeds China's
'colonialist greed." Former President Mahmood Ahmadinejad warned that
the Iran-China agreement was with "a foreign country" was being
discussed "away from the eyes of the Iranian nation." Reza Pahlavi,
the son of the last Shah of Iran, blasted the "shameful, 25-year
treaty with China that plunders our natural resources and places
foreign soldiers on our soil."

The Tobacco Revolt was a major event in Iranian history, with
implications far beyond the income of tobacco merchants. The tobacco
concession was revoked, but the anti-government protests continued.
In 1905 there were protests over the price of sugar and the sugar
merchants. This led to a massive civil war known as the
Constitutional Revolution, whose purpose was, among other things, to
demand adoption of a constitution that would guarantee that no leader
was above the law, and would control the powers of the Shah, and not
allow him to grant concessions to other countries without the approval
of the Majlis (parliament).

What's obvious here is that today's proposed Iran-China agreement is
stirring up emotions still remaining from the Tobacco Revolt and the
Constitutional Revolution, just as racial issues in America today stir
up emotions remaining from the American Civil War.

People are always asking me about "regime change" -- when will the
Iranian people rise up and finally replace the exceedingly corrupt
religious thugocracy running the country now. As we know from
Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, which
is the time in any country when a "velvet revolution" or non-violent
coup is most likely to occur.

So I believe that this agreement has almost no chance of being
implemented. But if Iran's loony leaders continue to push it, it
could be the trigger for the regime change that everyone claims to
want.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/

****
**** Iran's Chabahar Port deal with India is at risk
****

In 2016, India and Iran signed a the "historic" Chabahar Port
agreement. Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has
agreed to invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of
this port. Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in
shipping goods to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or
Europe. When India took operational control of the port in 2018,
India agreed to invest in the 628 km Chabahar-Zahedan railroad linking
the port to the Trans-Iranian railway and to other cities in Iran,
connecting from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Eastern
Europe. ( "18-Feb-18 World View -- Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India"
)

On Tuesday, Iran announced that India would no longer be part of
the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project, and that Iran would go it
alone. The reason given is that India has delayed providing
funding for its share of the project, related to the American
sanctions on Iran.

However, it's widely suspected that India was dropped from the project
under pressure from China. Under the new China-Iran draft agreement,
China will assist Iran in "Chabahar’s duty free zone, an oil refinery
nearby, and possibly a larger role in Chabahar port as well,"
according to reports. The upcoming deal will facilitate Chinese
investments in "infrastructure, manufacturing and upgrading energy and
transport facilities, to refurbishing ports, refineries and other
installations." Furthermore, the agreement wi commit Iran to
supplying oil and gas to China for the whole duration.

Using debt trap diplomacy, China has taken over Sri Lanka's Hambantota
port, and is expected soon to take over the Mombasa port in Kenya. In
each of those cases, there is a large enclave of thousands of Chinese
workers living near the ports. Under the new draft agreement, China
is already planning an enclave of 5,000 Chinese workers in Iran, and
may be planning to take over the Chabahar port, when the time is
right.

Sources:

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, China, Javad Zarif, Miao Lu,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, capitulatory system,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
Mahmood Ahmadinejad, Reza Pahlavi,
India, Chabahar Port, Chabahar-Zahedan railway,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota port, Kenya, Mombasa port

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 07-15-2020

This is more of a profitable racket. One of the things America is doing with sanctions is making sure peaceful economic means is more cost effective than war. Starting something on one of the many China hot spots has just got to result in sanctions of some sort. On the other hand, keeping the many tension spots cool is a win all around.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-16-2020

*** 17-Jul-20 World View -- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • News events in Ethiopia, Egypt, Lebanon, Armenia and Azerbaijan
  • Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt
  • Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
  • Lebanon: A country in free fall

****
**** News events in Ethiopia, Egypt, Lebanon, Armenia and Azerbaijan
****

[Image: g200716b.jpg]
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is reportedly now filling with water (Reuters)

For many years, I used to write an article every day, 365/366 days per
year, and cross-posted them on Breitbart. However, in the last couple
of years, I no longer have the energy to do that. One reason is that
I was royally screwed by the a--holes at Breitbart, and the other
reason is that, even though I have thousands of regular readers,
nobody is willing to pay me a regular salary, and most of them
consider the articles equivalent to a comic strip that they enjoy
reading, as long as it's free.

Nonetheless, there's so much nonsense, ignorance and stupidity, in the
mainstream media, especially about international events. Even the BBC
is turning into a left-wing sewer like CNN, probably because the BBC
receives a lot of money from PBS and they have to do as they're told.
And I've been told by many people that they depend on my web site,
which apparently the only web site in the world with honest, unbiased,
non-ideological descriptions of what's going on in the world.

The result is that I actually feel guilty about not doing more. So
the purpose of this article is to briefly summarize some major
international stories that are very important, but which nobody knows
anything about. It's not as good as three major articles on three
consecutive days, but it's almost as good.

****
**** Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam now filling with water, alarming Egypt
****

There's a really interesting story about Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam, which has been under construction since 2011. I've
written several stories about it while it was under construction, and
about the controversy: Once the dam has been constructed, it has to be
filled with water from the Blue Nile, and the region to be filled is
so enormous that it will take about seven years to fill the dam.
However, the Blue Nile supplies most of Sudan's water, and about 90%
of Egypt's water. Both Egypt and Sudan are already short of water,
and there are drought seasons that are worse. So this seven-year
filling period is potentially a disaster to Sudan and Egypt. There
have been years of arguments and negotiations, to no avail.

So now, in July 2020, the time has come for Ethiopia to start filling
the dam. Nothing much has happened yet, but if Egypt and Sudan
suffer from lack of water, there could well be a war.

****
**** Military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
****

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been arguing for years about an
Armenia-governed enclave called Nagorno-Karabakh in the middle of
Azerbaijan. There was no problem when both countries were part of the
Soviet Union, but they had a bloody war after the Soviet Union fell
apart in 1991. There have been occasional clashes, most recently in
2016. But in the last week, major fighting has begun, and people in
Azerbaijan have been marching on the capitol building in Azerbaijan's
capital city Baku, demanding that Azerbaijan declare war on Armenia
and force Armenia to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Generally speaking, Azerbaijan is a Turkic country aligned with
Turkey, and Armenia is an Eastern Orthodox (Armenian Apostolic)
country aligned with Russia. Furthermore, memories of the massacre of
Armenians in Turkey in 1916 ("Armenian genocide") are being revived.
Turkey has vowed to defend Azerbaijan, and Russia has offered to
mediate. I would say that this situation could lead to a regional
war, but there's already a small regional war going on. The war could
expand into a war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are
also at odds with each other in Syria and Libya.

****
**** Lebanon: A country in free fall
****

The country Lebanon is on the verge of collapse. Nearly 50% of the
population are living in poverty, and that was before the Wuhan
Coronavirus crisis began, which is making things much worse. Lebanon
has two problems. The Iran-controlled terrorist group Hezbollah runs
the country, but is receiving less money from its puppetmaster Iran,
thanks to US sanctions. And second, there is massive government
corruption, stemming from its "confessional system of government,"
where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation or confession
(Sunni, Shia, Christian), as I've described in detail in the past.
The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in
resolving disputes in both Iraq and Lebanon, but it gives each
sectarian group unrestricted access to the funds of the portions of
government it controls, leading to a situation where government
officials take all the money for themselves, and let the people freeze
and starve. Now, for the first time, there is massive anger growing
against Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Iraq, and Lebanon's government
may collapse completely.

The country is in free fall. The currency has collapsed. The
unemployment rate is over 30%. A tainted fuel oil scandal revealed
enormous corruption -- bribes, forged documents, and falsified tests.
Protesters have blocked roads with burning tires and are demanding
that the entire government resign. A crisis seems imminent.

Sources

Related Articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan,
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile,
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Apostolic Church,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 07-17-2020

(07-16-2020, 08:47 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: For many years, I used to write an article every day, 365/366 days per year, and cross-posted them on Breitbart.  However, in the last couple of years, I no longer have the energy to do that.  One reason is that I was royally screwed by the a--holes at Breitbart, and the other
reason is that, even though I have thousands of regular readers, nobody is willing to pay me a regular salary, and most of them consider the articles equivalent to a comic strip that they enjoy reading, as long as it's free.

Nonetheless, there's so much nonsense, ignorance and stupidity, in the mainstream media, especially about international events.  Even the BBC is turning into a left-wing sewer like CNN, probably because the BBC receives a lot of money from PBS and they have to do as they're told. And I've been told by many people that they depend on my web site, which apparently the only web site in the world with honest, unbiased, non-ideological descriptions of what's going on in the world.

Maybe if your stuff were honest, unbiased and non-ideological? You scatter your political beliefs freely along with your news. You mix the important stuff with an Industrial Age analysis of xenophobia and conflict which is sadly out of the modern era. If you raised the quality above the comic book level, you might get treated with above comic strip level of seriousness and respect. As is, free is about all it is worth.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-17-2020

** 15-Jul-2020 World View: Normal behavior

richard5za Wrote:> More and more people are saying that this market in relation to
> the economics makes no sense at all; but it keeps going up and
> up. Maybe its something connected to a Covid psychology: Lets
> gamble our way into riches?

What's going on today is normal behavior.

How is it possible that someone would take a large amount of money, an
amount comparable to the price of an entire house, and use that money
to purchase a certificate that is to be traded for a tulip to be grown
over the next eight months and become available the following spring?
I would like someone to explain how that kind of behavior -- by many,
many people -- is even possible, since I honestly don't have a clue.

The reason that people don't believe in bubbles is because that kind
of behavior is so ridiculous that it's almost impossible to believe
that it actually happened. Then when it happens again, people make up
excuses to pretend it isn't actually happening.

This isn't ancient behavior. I've repeatedly discussed the housing
bubble of the 2000s. Alan Greenspan knew it was going on. I knew it
was going on. Mish Shedlock knew it was going on. But here's what
the élite were saying: "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble." It wasn't until 2009 that the "experts" even admitted to a
housing bubble, but by then it was always PAST TENSE.

The same thing is happening today. Investors' behavior is so
unbelievable, that in the future people will deny that it actually
happened.

Today, MMT is so laughably ridiculous that it's hard to conceive that
anyone believes it, but it's the core of most the excuses today. And
it's produced a global bubble that's probably several quadrillion
dollars in size. And as we've all pointed out, when that bubble
bursts, it's going to create the most disastrous financial crisis the
world has ever known.


For more information on mass delusions, see the following:

** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.garrett071009.htm

Or just go read about the Salem Witch Trials.

Generational Dynamics is about analyzing and predicting the results of
mass delusions of all sorts.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-17-2020

(07-17-2020, 07:38 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 15-Jul-2020 World View: Normal behavior

richard5za Wrote:>   More and more people are saying that this market in relation to
>   the economics makes no sense at all; but it keeps going up and
>   up. Maybe its something connected to a Covid psychology: Lets
>   gamble our way into riches?

What's going on today is normal behavior.

The last stage of a dying boom is a speculative frenzy that promises much and creates nothing more than those glowing promises. 

A word to the wise: you cannot eat promises, but they can burn you if you give tangible value for them and they suddenly go worthless.   


Quote:How is it possible that someone would take a large amount of money, an
amount comparable to the price of an entire house, and use that money
to purchase a certificate that is to be traded for a tulip to be grown
over the next eight months and become available the following spring?
I would like someone to explain how that kind of behavior -- by many,
many people -- is even possible, since I honestly don't have a clue.


Because people either fail to recognize it as a bubble, fail to recognize how shaky the bubble is, or believe that they can time the market The last person to cash out successfully might make a killing. But stick with the bubble too long and there eventually is no buyer. Because a purely-speculative investment has no inherent value, it can quickly go from overpriced to worthless. A share of 'good' corporate stock is typically worth some multiple of dividends that one can reasonably expect as income. Purely-speculative investments offer promises that might never materialize. Real estate is a prime example. Just look at the wild activity in the Inland Empire of southern California (basically the area around San Bernardino). Real estate is now relatively cheap around there by West Coast standards. Cheap real estate is so for good reason... and San Bernardino is now an awful place to live.    


Quote:The reason that people don't believe in bubbles is because that kind
of behavior is so ridiculous that it's almost impossible to believe
that it actually happened.  Then when it happens again, people make up
excuses to pretend it isn't actually happening.

Denial of reality... nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts. Some who think they know it for what it is think that they can time the market and sell out before the perception of value remains. One might as well do sports gambling, itself a dumb form of betting. 



Quote:This isn't ancient behavior.  I've repeatedly discussed the housing
bubble of the 2000s.  Alan Greenspan knew it was going on.  I knew it
was going on.  Mish Shedlock knew it was going on.  But here's what
the élite were saying: "Housing prices can't go down -- people have to
live somewhere," and "Banks won't foreclose -- it's not in their
interest to do so" and "These housing construction firms know what
they're doing, and they wouldn't be building houses if it were just a
bubble."  It wasn't until 2009 that the "experts" even admitted to a
housing bubble, but by then it was always PAST TENSE.

There you have it! People full of $#!+, like construction firms, publishers who must keep an optimistic view of a phenomenon if they are to keep having readers, politicians riding a tide, and high-flying bankers think they know what they don't. As Mark Twain put it, what you don;t know doesn't hurt you so much as "what you think you know that just ain't so".  

I could see a forthcoming great crash in real estate as early as 2005 after I read about some insane practices in real-estate lending: packaging fecal loans and over-rating their safety as high-grade investments.   


Quote:The same thing is happening today.  Investors' behavior is so
unbelievable, that in the future people will deny that it actually
happened.

The Obama recovery is over, as it couldn't last forever. The profits are eroding, which should be good reason to sell out while one can and perhaps buy some long-term, low-yield bonds that will be marketable no matter what short of the dissolution of the USA. In 2008 and 2009 we had "Too Big to Fail"... this time the entities that did not clean up their act may be "Too Big to Save". I predict that if things go really bad, then any recovery will be a combination of small business taking over in the ruins of the bloated behemoths and big government trying to prime the pump -- which is how things went in the 1930's. The 1930's really were a good time to start a small business because of cheap (but desirable) labor, cheap real estate, inventories readily available at fire-sale prices without the small of smoke, and customer loyalty at a level that we haven't seen since. 

To liberal politicians, small business -- mom-and-pop business -- has the political benefit of being unable to buy the political process as Big Business did in 2010 and 2014.  


Quote:Today, MMT is so laughably ridiculous that it's hard to conceive that
anyone believes it, but it's the core of most the excuses today.  And
it's produced a global bubble that's probably several quadrillion
dollars in size.  And as we've all pointed out, when that bubble
bursts, it's going to create the most disastrous financial crisis the
world has ever known.

The tautology operates -- it works well until it quits working well. Duh!

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-25-2020

** 19-Jul-2020 World View: Exponential growth

Higgenbotham Wrote:> This type of news will probably resurface after the bear market
> starts and at that time it will probably be stated with surety
> that children will suffer lifelong lung damage from this exposure,
> as well as damage to multiple organs. But that's to keep in the
> back of my mind for another day.

According to media reports, the number of infections is growing
exponentially in South Africa, Brazil, India, and America.

Within the US, the number of infections is growing exponentially in
California, Arizona, Texas and Florida.

I can't make out whether this is good news or bad news. The reason
that it might be good news is that the exponential growth has to
plateau at some point, and if that happens soon, then all of those
regions will reach "herd immunity," and life can return to normal. In
that event, those regions will be far ahead of everyone else, since
everyone in the world is going to exposed sooner or later anyway.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-25-2020

** 23-Jul-2020 World View: CNBC vs Bloomberg TV

ihatecnbc2000 Wrote:> Some strong memories I have of the end of the dotcom bubble was
> how the relationship between the Dow/S&P versus NASDAQ went kind
> of schizo, with various days having one up big with the other down
> and vice versa. Then you had blowout seemingly good news earnings
> (beating "whisper numbers") that resulted in those stocks getting
> sold hard. We've definitely had the schizo indices, lets see if
> the big tech "beats" in earnings get sold into.

John Wrote:> Do you think that CNBC is worse than anyone else?

ihatecnbc2000 Wrote:> Haha. No, but I really hated them back then.

There is a difference between CNBC and Bloomberg tv. They
both have deep left-wing orientations, but Bloomberg is much
worse.

Back when Michael Bloomberg was running for president, Bloomberg
tv announced that they would continue to attack the Trump administration,
but that they wouldn't even investigate Democratic candidates.

When Bloomberg dropped out, he announced that he would still be
contributing billions to the Democrats, and Bloomberg tv didn't end
its policy of attacking Trump but leaving Democrats alone. CNBC is
better than Bloomberg tv because it's backed by a historically
legimate news organization, NBC news, which is still far left, but not
loony left all the time.

A similar comparison can be made between MSNBC and CNN. CNN has
become a total sewer, but MSNBC is a tiny bit more balanced for the
same reason as for CNBC -- it's backed by NBC news.

Fox News continues to have ratings far higher than all the others,
since the news shows are balanced, even if some of the commentators
are far to the right.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-25-2020

** 25-Jul-2020 World View: Writing a book

Navigator Wrote:> I have written a book before, and it ended up with me spending
> probably a thousand hours on a quality product, spending about
> $10K on printing, and getting basically nothing in return. I am
> not going to repeat that mistake.

Dave, how much do you want to write this book? I've been doing this
for almost 20 years, and I can tell you that you will never make
money on a book telling people how to prepare for the coming
war with China.

On the other hand, if you REALLY want to write this book, then just do
it for your own self-fulfillment, without expecting any money, except
a small amount in donations. In that case, I could still do the
editing, fact-checking and formatting for you, as you've requested.

The only other possibility is to get a sponsor. Perhaps you know a
person or an organization who would be willing to give you a grant to
write this book. But be careful, as there are a lot of people out
there who may be looking for a way to mislead, use, humiliate and
screw you, as happened with me and Breitbart.

This might be a good time for me to mention that for the last three
months I've been working on a book on Vietnam, in the same style as my
books on Iran and China. There is a company that's interested in
investing in Vietnam and who are giving me a small amount of money to
write this book. It's not a life-changing amount of money, but
combined with the occasional donations that that I get, it's enough to
keep me alive for a while longer. And it will be nice to have one
more book in the "Generational Theory Book Series."

By the way, Vietnam is a very interesting country from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics. The history of Vietnam is a lot more
complicated than the history of China. Historically, Vietnam has been
the focal point for clashes between Chinese culture and Indian
culture. Vietnam's population today has 54 ethnic groups. Most of
the 54 ethnic groups hate several or all of the others, and would be
only too happy to see them exterminated, if that were possible.
America's "Vietnam War" was actually one of many periodic wars of
reunification, and America was almost completely irrelevant, as these
groups were really just fighting each other, using American soldiers
as collateral damage. Today, with its prominent position as guardian
of the South China Sea, Vietnam is going to be a very important part
of the next war.

So the bottom line is that unless you get a major sponsor, then you'll
have to decide whether you're motivated to write the book anyway, for
no money. You'll still have to spend a hundred hours or a thousand
hours, but at least you won't have to spend $10K for printing, since
you can sell it through Amazon with no printing cost. So that's the
choice.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-25-2020

*** 26-Jul-20 World View -- Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
  • History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
  • China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses

****
**** Kremlin shocked by large anti-government protests in Russia's Far East
****

[Image: g200725b.jpg]
Map showing Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East

Russia's government in Moscow has been caught by surprise by
large anti-government protests in Khabarovsk, eight time zones
away in Russia's Far East.

Protests have been growing for several weeks, and on Saturday, tens of
thousands of people in Khabarovsk took part in protest marches.
Protests have also spread to other cities. They were protesting the
arrest, on July 9, of Sergei Furgal, the democratically elected
governor, who was "kidnapped" back to Moscow, over 6,000 km away.
Furgal was arrested on charges that he was involved in three murders
in the early 2000s. The protesters were demanding that if Furgal was
going to be tried, then the trial must take place in Khabarovsk, not
6,000 km away in Moscow.

Furgal was unexpectedly elected governor of the Khabarovsk Region in
September 2018, beating the candidate who had been hand-picked by
Vladimir Putin. Furgal has remained a popular figure ever since, and
in 2019, his Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory. After
Furgal's arrest, and before any trial, Furgal was fired as governor,
and Putin replaced him with a federal politician Mikhail Degtyaryov as
acting governor to the region. Degtyaryov is from the same party as
Furgal, but presumably he will do as he's told by Putin.

Theoretically, Russia is a functioning democracy, but as a practical
matter, the candidates selected by Putin always win, and are expected
to do as they're told when in office. Furgal did not do as he was
told, and his removal and replacement by Putin is seen not only as a
necessary step to bring the Khabarovsk Region under control, but also
as a warning to any other governor who might be thinking of straying
from the official line.

Nonetheless, the size of the anti-government protests has been a shock
to the Kremlin, with an estimated 30,000 protesters marching to the
Khabarovsk capital building on Saturday.

At the march, demonstrators chanted slogans like "Disgrace!", "Fair
trial in Khabarovsk!", “As long as we are united, we are invincible!”
and “Freedom for Furgal!” Many demanded President Putin resign
because local people had lost trust in him.

The new governor, Degtyaryov, has already offended people by refusing
to meet with local citizens, saying that he won't meet with those who
come "yelling under my windows."

Putin has always responded harshly to protests, but this one caught
him by surprise. If the protests continue, we can expect violence
by the security forces in the coming weeks.

****
**** History of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok
****

Khabarovsk is the capital city and largest city of the Khabarovsk Krai
(administrative region), with a population of 600,000, including
thousands of Chinese migrants that have crossed over the Amur River
from China.

Many Chinese claim that Khabarovsk really belongs to China. They
point to Hong Kong, which became a British colony in 1842 because of
the Opium Wars and what the Chinese call an "unfair treaty." Hong
Kong was handed back to China in 1997. Many in Chinese social media
claim that Khabarovsk became part of Russia because of another "unfair
treaty," the May 1858 Treaty of Aigun between Russia and China that
settled the boundary between the two countries, when China was
weakened by the Taiping Rebellion. The Chinese are claiming that
Russia should hand Khabarovsk back to China, just as Hong Kong was
handed back to China. However, the region demanded by China also
contains Vladivostok, which is the location of Russia's Pacific
military fleet, so there is little chance that Russia would agree to
any such thing without a major war. Still, China and Russia fought a
border war in the 1960s, so there may be a new war at some point.

However, it won't be soon. Russia and China currently have a
"marriage of convenience," where they pretend to love each other.
They need each other's support because they're both criminal outlaws,
with China illegally annexing the South China Sea and Russia
illegally annexing eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

****
**** China's strategy continues to suffer geopolitical reverses
****

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself has been suffering numerous
serious reverses lately. The Trump administration's closing of
China's Houston consulate is a major blow to the Chinese military's
espionage program. China is receiving worldwide condemnation for many
of its policies that were previously ignored, or even supported by the
credulous Western mainstream press -- purposely seeding hundreds of
countries with the Wuhan Coronavirus, causing worldwide economic
devastation, arresting, torturing and enslaving millions of Muslim
Uighurs, imposing dictatorial policies on Hong Kong through its new
security law.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is running into problems because
China's infrastructure agreements with numerous countries, especially
in Africa, imposed huge debt requirements, thanks to China's
"debt trap diplomacy," and now because the Wuhan Coronavirus has shut
down many economies, many countries can no longer make the debt
repayments.

What many people don't realize is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
has no strategy. They're planning to annex part of India, annex
part of Vietnam, annex Russia's Far East, launch a war of revenge
against Japan, and annex Taiwan. But what's the strategy? Even if
China wins all those wars (and it will probably lose all of them),
then those gains will disappear within two generations.

At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union had won control of numerous
countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 1991, Russia had
lost control of all of those countries. The same would happen with
China. So what's China strategy after it wins all those wars?
If there is one, I'm not aware of it.

The CCP thugs today are paranoid and desperate, and highly emotional.
What do we do now? Attack Taiwan? Attack India? Sign up another
BRI country? They don't know what to do next, so they might
do anything. Sooner or later that will lead to war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

---- Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Far East, Khabarovsk,
Sergei Furgal, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Degtyaryov,
Vladivostok, China, Hong Kong, Aigun Treaty,
South China Sea, Ukraine, Crimea,
Uighurs, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Wuhan Coronavirus, Japan, Taiwan, India

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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-04-2020

** 04-Aug-2020 World View: Massive explosion in Beirut Lebanon [Updated]

Several hours ago (early evening Lebanon time) there were massive
explosions in the seaport area of the capital city Lebanon, in a
crowded residential area. Dozens of people were killed, and thousands
injured. Broken glass was flying all over the city.

[Image: smoke-rises-after-an-explosion-in-beirut...b20100.jpg]
  • Smoke rises after an explosion in Beirut, Lebanon August 4,
    2020, in this picture obtained from a social media video.(Reuters
    photo)


According to officials, the explosion was of "explosive materials"
that had been stored at the seaport for years. However, there is no
word yet on whether the explosion was an industrial accident or an
assassination.

According to one report, the explosive materials were fertilizer and
ammonium nitrate. There are many questions about why ammonium nitrate
was stored for years at the seaport.

There was a massive car bombing explosion in Beirut in May 2005,
assassinating the extremely popular former prime minister Rafiq
Hariri.

** 2-May-2005 World View -- Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e050216.htm#e050216


Hariri was the leader of the Sunni faction in Lebanon, and it was
believed that a Shia group, Hezbollah or Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
under the orders of the Shia puppetmasters in Iran, was responsible
for the responsible for that bombing. Those accusations infuriated
Iran and Hezbollah and they threatened revenge if they were blamed.
However, an international commission has been investigating, and
they're scheduled to release their findings in three days from now on
Friday. It was already widely feared that the commission report would
lead to violence, and that has led to speculation that today's bombing
was anticipatory violence, since the report is expected to blame
Syria.

The country Lebanon is on the verge of collapse. Nearly 50% of the
population are living in poverty, and that was before the Wuhan
Coronavirus crisis began, which is making things much worse.

The country is in free fall. The currency has collapsed. The
unemployment rate is over 30%. Life savings in banks are now worth
nothing. The health care system was overwhelmed before today. A
tainted fuel oil scandal revealed enormous corruption -- bribes,
forged documents, and falsified tests. There's little electricity.
There's little garbage pickup.

It's now being assumed that storing fertilizer and ammonium nitrate at
the seaport was just another example of corruption. That will be
investigated. Will this be the trigger for total collapse of Lebanon?
We'll wait and see.

** 17-Jul-20 World View -- Lebanon: A country in free fall
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200717.htm#e200717


[Updated: 14:57 ET]

*** Update 18:30 ET -- Trump: Explosion was an attack

At a press conference, president Trump said that the generals
he's spoken to feel that the Beirut explosion was an attack,
not a manufacturing event. It seems to be an attack, a bomb of some kind.



---- Sources:

-- ‘Like an earthquake’: Huge explosion rips through Beirut captured on video
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/two-explosions-rocks-lebanon-s-beirut-dozens-wounded-videos-surface-online/story-wkCeUkZGBqxMPVtrneAnNI.html
(AFP, 4-Aug-2020)

-- Huge explosion rocks Lebanon's capital Beirut: Live updates
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/huge-explosion-rocks-lebanon-capital-beirut-live-updates-200804163620414.html
(Al-Jazeera, 4-Aug-2020)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-05-2020

** 05-Aug-2020 World View: 7/30 testimony of the CEOs of Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Speaking of competence, I watched the testimony of the CEOs of
> Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook yesterday.

> These guys are idiots, especially the one from Google. But what
> especially surprised me was that Bezos couldn't put together a
> better opening statement.


John Wrote:> ** 02-Aug-2020 World View: Idiots

> I actually disagree with this point of view. It's the politicians
> who were idiots because they barely know how to turn on a computer
> and have no idea what's going on. The CEOs were well prepared,
> and played on the politicians' ignorance and stupidity.

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Could you be more specific? What did the CEOs say that was
> brilliant? Because I saw not a glimmer.

> As far as being well prepared, all I remember any of them saying
> is I don't know. Although I would admit that much of what they
> said I don't know to I would not have necessarily expected them to
> know. But something beyond I don't know would be expected, such
> as how they go about those things in general. I do remember
> Zuckerberg essentially saying that, yes, it is Facebook's general
> practice to copy competitors.

I didn't think that the CEOs said anything brilliant. I just said
that they played on the politicians' ignorance and stupidity, which is
quite a different thing, and trivially easy. Bezos told his
ridiculous weepy story about his dad Miguel. Pichai stumbled over
words and gave an impression of being overwhelmed. Both of them
avoided answering any real questions. In both cases, the response and
demeanor were well-practiced, and designed to disarm the posturing
politicians, who are too dumb to know what was going on anyway. And
it worked.

Let's take a couple of examples of questions that might have
embarrassed the CEOs, if they had been asked.

First, I assume you read something about the recent Twitter hack. A
malicious actor bribed or tricked or extorted a Twitter employee and
got control of a few dozen accounts. All the hacker did was send out
hundreds of tweets in order to collect a few hundred thousand dollars,
but as some media reports pointed out, the attack could be practicing
for a serious attack in November to affect the election.

Most people have no clue about the following: If you have an online
account with anyone -- a store, a bank, a social media service -- then
the company you're dealing with has an IT department of 5, 10, 20,
100, 500 employees who are responsible for updating the software or
providing customer support. All of those people have access to the
entire database, or they could not do their jobs, and so they all have
access to your data.

Companies can take various kinds of steps to mitigate the exposure.
Typically, your account password is encrypted, so no one in IT can get
it. Sometimes your social security number is encrypted, and that will
protect it from external hackers, but internal IT people will be able
to access the decryption functions, so those numbers are usually
unprotected internally. Sometimes your credit card numbers are stored
on another server, so that only select IT people can access them, but
they're still partially exposed. But basically, if you provide any
data to any online service or business, you should assume that 10-2000
IT people, depending on the size of the company, have free access to
your data, and to your entire account.

So the four CEOs must have been shaking in their boots, out of fear
that they might be grilled about this. Because if all of Twitter's
accounts can be stolen with the help of a crooked or rogue or idiot IT
employee (of which any company contains many, many), then Apple,
Amazon, etc., have exactly the same problem, and all of them can be
hacked in the same way, giving some malicious actor control of
multiple accounts, for at least a period of time.

Imagine the disaster that such a malicious actor could cause! And
Twitter has shown the way -- there's no defense against it. There are
plenty of questions that the four CEOs might have been asked about
this situation, but the politicians, who barely know how to turn on a
computer, just ignore the problem, and go on posturing about other
things.

The second embarrassing area would be those "magic AI" algorithms that
check for "hate speech." The obvious intent is that all hate speech
would be suppressed, and anything from Trump supporters would be
classified as "hate speech," and so therefore anything supporting
Trump should be suppressed.

The companies just say, "Oh, those decisions are made by algorithms --
AI algorithms -- which are non-partisan."

And the idiot politicians just accept that, as if there were some
magic involved. Actually, algorithms like that would be rules-driven,
and programmers would write the rules. As stupid as politicians are,
understanding a little bit about those rules is not beyond the
capabilities of those few who can still do fourth grade math.

The rules are confidential, of course, but we can speculate on how
some of them work. Let's suppose a tweet contains the text, "Make
America great." That alone wouldn't be enough to classify it as hate
speech, but it would add points in some sort of point system. If a
tweet contains another "racist" phrase like that, then there might be
enough points for the "non-partisan" algorithms to decide that the
tweet is hate speech.

So here are the questions for the four CEOs: We know from various blog
posts that everyone at Google, etc., is far-left pro-Democrat. So all
those hate speech rules are written by left-wingers, right? Do you
have any moderate or conservative people writing those algorithms? Of
course not. And isn't it true that even if there were a conservative
in the group, he would be sidelined by the others, and his work would
all be deleted during code reviews by all the left-wingers on the
team?

If you hired only whites to do programming, you would be accused of
biasing your algorithms to whites, and you would have to hire blacks.
If you hired only men to do programming, you would be accused of
biasing your algorithms to men, and you would have to hire women.
Isn't the same thing true that if you hire only left-wingers to do
programming, then you are biasing your algorthms to Democrats? And
isn't that against the law and your own supposed principles? Given
the importance of evaluation "hate speech," don't you think that you
have an obligation to hire a few conservatives, instead of just all
left-winger Democrats?