• Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades
  
• US troop deployment in Poland angers Russia
  

• Poland surges past the EU in military modernization and growth (21-Dec-2013)
  
  
• Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland forming alliance to confront Russia (27-Nov-2014)
  
  
• Poland to move thousands of troops east in reaction to Russian threat (28-Oct-2014)
  
  
• Consequences of Russia/Georgia conflict spread to southern Caucasus (03-Sep-2008)
  

• Over 100 migrants drown in Mediterranean after their dinghy sinks
  
• With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses
  

• Libya Dawn or the General National Congress (GNC), seated in
  Tripoli and western libya, composed of militias that seized Tripoli in
  2014.
  
• The Libya National Army (LNA), headed by Maj-Gen Khalifah Haftar,
  seated in Beida in eastern Libya. a secular government that fled from
  Tripoli in 2014.
  
• The Government of National Accord (GNA), also in Tripoli, which
  was created by the United Nations a year ago in the hope of unifying
  the country behind it.

• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war (28-Jul-2014)
  
  
• Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
  
  
• Bizarre monkey attack triggers tribal war in Jabha in southern Libya (21-Nov-2016)
  

(01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!


How have you been, John?

(01-16-2017, 12:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!


How have you been, John?

Just barely surviving, and you?

• China threatens to 'take off the gloves' with Donald Trump
  
• European leaders shocked and surprised at Trump's foreign policy comments
  

• China threatens Trump with 'revenge' over one-China policy (11-Jan-2017)
  
  
• No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
  
  
• As expected, Austria follows Hungary in saying 'No more migrants' (07-Sep-2015)
  

(01-16-2017, 12:42 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(01-16-2017, 12:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(01-14-2017, 10:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Lol, in recent news, Poland admits that it has been longing for foreign tanks on its soil again!


How have you been, John?

Just barely surviving, and you?

Am doing fairly well.  Am working again, starting up some supplementary classes this week to finish the second degree, all that good stuff.  Appreciate the reach out on LinkedIn, too.

So, still not convinced of your crisis war alliance configuration, but the prospects (still speculative at this point, but still) of improved relations with Russia give it a little boost, imo.  I know that's been keeping you up at night.

Dunno about the same with Iran, now.  Lot of people in the ole Trump Admin and on Capitol Hill chomping at the bit at the prospect of confronting it once and for all.  Which is unfortunate, because I largely agree with your case about social attitudes among their rising Idealists.  The post-Awakening changes might not take effect quick enough for our old Idealists, and the value shift is never complete until the conclusion of their next 4T.  But we'll see.

Have you got any thoughts on dates, over there at Generational Dynamics, on a possible start date for the big 'un?  The 2020s are starting to loom real large on the upcoming horizon.

• The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency
  
• Burundi's leader, refusing to step down, withdraws peacekeeping troops fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia
  

• The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19 (07-Jan-2017)
  
  
• The Gambia follows Burundi and S. Africa in leaving the International Criminal Court (27-Oct-2016)
  
  
• South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt (24-Oct-2016)
  

• Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide (13-Oct-2016)
  
  
• 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war (30-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Burundi's Nkurunziza continues down Mugabe-Assad path of genocide (10-Dec-2015)
  

(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Jordan Goodspeed.

I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come around to your view), etc.

I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for when they think the crisis war will start.

(01-17-2017, 11:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: Jordan Goodspeed.

I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come around to your view), etc.

I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for when they think the crisis war will start.

If I understand his theory correctly, it's a probabilistic thing, with gradually increasing probability.  That makes giving a date range tough.  Hopefully he'll correct me if I'm wrong.

(01-17-2017, 12:34 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: I know there are quite a few Kremlin bootlicking NATO haters on this forum.

In any case, if NATO falls apart we will really regret it.

Learn to call yourselves Amerikanskis.

Learn to kiss the feet of your future Eastern overlords.

(01-17-2017, 12:04 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > Jordan Goodspeed.

> I used to argue with you about referring to Boko Haram as a Hausa
> organization when they're really a Kanuri one (am right on that
> one), whether Thailand was in an Awakening or Crisis (have come
> around to your view), etc.

> I was asking if Generation Dynamics has a rough date range for
> when they think the crisis war will start.

• In 2006, Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon was a total
  disaster for Israel. When two Israeli soldiers were abducted by
  Hezbollah, Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the
  war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. In
  the next few weeks, the supposed objectives changed on an almost daily
  basis.
  
  ** How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah
  ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e061223.htm#e061223
  
  If Lebanon had been in a generational Crisis era, then might have
  resulted in a crisis war. As it was, the war fizzled in a few weeks.
  But the point is that Israel's panic could not have been predicted in
  advance.
  
  
• After 9/11, we were at war with bin Laden in Afghanistan within 24
  hours. If bin Laden had been hiding out with the Uighurs in China, we
  might have been in a crisis war.
  
  
• To this day, no one knows what triggered the October 1929 panic,
  or why it occurred at that precise time. If we can't figure that out
  after 88 years, then we have no reason to believe that we can predict
  the next one, or that we can figure out what happened after it
  happens.

(01-18-2017, 09:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: John - and anyone else interested - how much warning do you think we'll get before cities start getting destroyed?  Seems like the Civil war escalated pretty fast, but the US had a few years warning about WWII due to its starting elsewhere.  Just wondering at what point to move kids out of likely target areas.

(01-18-2017, 09:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(01-18-2017, 09:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: John - and anyone else interested - how much warning do you think we'll get before cities start getting destroyed?  Seems like the Civil war escalated pretty fast, but the US had a few years warning about WWII due to its starting elsewhere.  Just wondering at what point to move kids out of likely target areas.

If you're genuinely worried New Hampshire and Oregon have little to no major targets (cities or missile silos both) and fall outside of the major fallout patterns.  Most of the radiation would vanish after the first couple of days, too (alpha radiation is a bit rough on nuclei).  You also have to wonder, since there isn't quite the same hair-trigger disposition of forces or huge conventional forces imbalance a la the Red Army poised against Western Europe, whether nuclear weapons would be a first resort at all.

• Brexit becomes more real after Theresa May's speech
  
• European anger versus British self-delusion
  

• Trade and "Hard Brexit": Completely leave the EU Single
  Market, but then renegotiate trade agreements with the EU and other
  countries. All ties will be cut, and the negotiations will start with
  a blank slate.
  
  
• Immigration: Brexit must mean control of the number of people who
  come to Britain from Europe. Polls have shown that of all the reasons
  why people voted for Brexit, the only one that really mattered was
  migration -- control of Christian migrants from eastern Europe to
  Britain, and control of Muslim migrants from Syria, the Mideast and
  northern Africa to Britain.
  
  
• Give Britain control of its own laws. No longer any control by
  the European Parliament or the European Court of Justice.
  
  
• Strengthen the Union between the four nations of the United
  Kingdom. This is a tricky one, since England and Wales were
  pro-Brexit, Scotland and Northern Ireland were (and are)
  anti-Brexit.
  
  
• Deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the
  Common Travel Area with the Republic of Ireland. After Brexit, there
  will be only one remaining land border between the UK and the EU --
  and that will be the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of
  the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (or Southern Ireland), which is an
  independent country that will remain part of the EU. It took years of
  bitter negotiation to allow free travel between Ireland and Northern
  Ireland in past decades, and ow those agreements are in jeopardy.
  
  
• Protect rights for EU nationals in Britain and British nationals
  in the EU. These are the people whose lives have been thrown into the
  most chaos by the Brexit votes.

• Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms (15-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown (05-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy (30-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

• Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down
  
• Why you have to say 'The Gambia', rather than just 'Gambia'
  

• The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency (18-Jan-2017)
  
  
• The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19 (07-Jan-2017)
  

• When the Portuguese first explored the country, they named it
  after The River Gambia, and so it became The Gambia.
  
• So it won't be confused with another African country,
  Zambia.

• President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s
  
• The Gambia's leader steps down, after his army chief deserts him
  

• Anti-Muslim xenophobia surges in Europe and America (17-Nov-2015)
  
  
• The global rise of xenophobia (22-Aug-2010)
  
  
• American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right (07-Nov-2010)
  

• Senegal's troops enter The Gambia to force the ruler to step down (20-Jan-2017)
  
  
• The Gambia's leader, refusing to step down, declares state of emergency (18-Jan-2017)
  
  
• The Gambia's president prepares for war with Senegal on January 19 (07-Jan-2017)