Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-07-2020 (10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance. Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when you win wars with large numbers of minimally trained troops that you only trust because they have a stake in your government. That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to nuclear weapons. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-07-2020 (10-07-2020, 08:26 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires Training time was also a factor, as well as the amount of effort you had to put into agriculture to survive. Eventually, you could free up a larger part of the population to serve in your army. At that point, armed citizens started to develop rights. The more the roundheads promised to the people, the more the cavaliers got in trouble. Before that effect started developing, we were stuck for a long time in the Agricultural Age. China... They had quite a time of troubles from the Opium Wars through Mao's death. Life was ugly. Everybody who has a cultural memory of that time frame is going to be reluctant to embrace violence and revolution. That is why the CCP remains in power. The people have not tried to gain the power of democracy. I have a feeling that it is a matter of time, but that time is still a ways off. Not clear that anyone sees profit in nukes. If you believe xenophobia and ideology alone drive wars, maybe a nuke war may start. With the elites trying to make a profit it seems less likely. Somewhere between the machine gun and the nukes, war became not cost effective for the leaders or the elites. At that point wars among major powers became more rare, and when they did take place a defensive proxy insurgent conflict blocked colonial imperialism. The dynamic has changed. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-07-2020 ** 07-Oct-2020 World View: The US Constitution and Confucianism (10-02-2020, 04:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > If one is to compare the United States to all the empires of the My research has led me to believe that a lot of the credit for the impressive stability of the United States has to do with the brilliance of the US Constitution. For my Iran book, I traced the history of national constitutions, leading to Iran's Constitutional Revolution in the 1900s decade, and I really began to grasp how brilliant the US Constitution is. Thanks to the Constitution, the US has survived multiple "constitutional crises," as well as the Civil War and other wars, and is still a functioning constitutional democracy. In another message you refer to Trump as "despotic," which is the usual idiotic silliness from people like you who hate the 63 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters. Trump has stayed well within the lines of the US Constitution, including court decisions, so he isn't "despotic" at all. But, thanks to the Constitution, he's survived the huge Russia hoax, the special prosecutor hoax, the impeachment hoax, and so forth. As he himself has pointed out, he must be the most honest and effective politician in the history of the world to have survived all that. Just yesterday, the handwritten notes of the sleazy John Brennan were released, proving that Obama was in on the illegal spying and hoaxes. This is actually a big bombshell, but you wouldn't have a clue about that, since CNN carefully avoids reporting news like that to people like you, lest you get confused about whom to hate. Better for you to stay completely in the dark. https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/breaking-dni-declassifies-handwritten-notes-from-john-brennan-2016-cia-referral-on-clinton-campaigns-collusion-operation/ So this year the Democrats are resorting to fascist antifa-blm violence in cities across the country, threats to overwhelm the election with mail-in ballots, threats to pack the Supreme Court, and anything else they can do to destroy the Constitutional government that has protected the loathsome Tea Partiers from the Democrats. Look what's happening this week in Kyrgyzstan. One side sabotaged the election, just as the Democrats are trying to do here, but Kyrgyzstan's constitution doesn't have the checks and balances of the US Constitution, and the government is in collapse, and the election will have to be rerun. It's a great lesson. The US Constitution has numerous checks and balances designed to make sure that elections produce a result. These include the Electoral College and various rules to be applied if there's no election result. My point is that by January or February of next year, I expect that the Constitutional process will produce a president to take office. Maybe it will be Trump, maybe it will be Biden. But there will be a president. That's what I mean by "impressive stability." There are few, if any, other countries in the world that could say the same thing. (10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires (10-07-2020, 08:26 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more This is a new area of analysis for me, following on my research on China and Vietnam. I've found it appalling that the CCP has made one incredibly stupid decision after another since Mao came to power, and you have to wonder why that keeps happening. But now I see the same kind of stupidity taking place historically in Vietnam's Confucian governments, and I realize that it's Confucianism that's a cancer that causes the repeated destruction and self-destruction of these governments. The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance of the US Constitutions, with its system of checks and balances that prevents things similar to the "Great Leap Forward" in America. I used the word "Democracy" because the Chinese Communists themselves use the word democracy as the ideological evil whose only purpose is to destroy the CCP -- i.e., Chinese Confucianism. But there are so many destructive things about Chinese Confucianism that a better contrast will have to be found. What I need is a word that captures the essence of the Constitution's system of checks and balances as a contrast to Confucianism. The word "democracy" is close, but not quite right. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-07-2020 Agreed the US Constitution is pretty stable, but there are some leftover remnants of the slave compromises that need to be cleared. The electoral college, the senate, the amendment process all need to be looked at. Agreed Brennan is sleazy. I suspect the big advantage of the Constitution and Democracy is tugging power towards the people. The elites grabbing power and wealth rather than let it flow through the population is one of their big problems. It is more than just Confucianism. Problems develop in every autocratic regime. They are so tempted to skim a larger percentage off the top that they cannot compete. That doesn’t mean they can’t live really well on what they do skim off the top. Dictator or enabler are profitable gigs. But as for the rest, your ideological bias shows up heavily in how you perceive motivations and results. I trust more the verdict of history than persuading an ideologue. Most of this stuff I will leave to others. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-08-2020 (10-07-2020, 01:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance I do agree that the US Constitution has been a big success. It's been great at maintaining continuity through generational crises, which is pretty impressive. Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though. We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age. My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea. Arguing that the CCP is terrible because of Confucianism seems ironic to me, since Mao persecuted Confucians. The CCP is more aligned with Legalism, which is the other major philosophical influence on Chinese history. I would however agree that Confucianism did leave China vulnerable to external invasion at times. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-08-2020 (10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-07-2020, 01:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance It will get us through the Trump maladministration and the COVID-19 plague. Quote:Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though. We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age. My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea. Can our Constitution survive a nuclear exchange? Probably not. What doesn't get nuked will be splintered into city states in the intrestices of the carnage and in larger areas (let us say northern Wisconsin) that have no obvious targets. In the aftermath few will know the present as they know the past. The industrial basis of a modern society will have to be restarted from scratch. Some of those city states will become liberal republics and some will have various forms of despotism. Quote:Arguing that the CCP is terrible because of Confucianism seems ironic to me, since Mao persecuted Confucians. The CCP is more aligned with Legalism, which is the other major philosophical influence on Chinese history. I would however agree that Confucianism did leave China vulnerable to external invasion at times. It is difficult to escape the ancient heritage even if one disparages it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-08-2020 (10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though. We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age. My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea. It is OK to worry, but it is not profitable to get involved in a nuke war. While a North Korea might talk a big game, Trump's boast a while back that he has a bigger button has some truth to it. It might be a better tactic to yap than to actually do something. As is, the primary results of yapping seems to be sanctions and famine. It is not surprising North Korea has no imitators of their approach. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-09-2020 ** 07-Oct-2020 World View: Democracies and useful idiots Jeepdinger Wrote:> I think there isn't a word to describe the entirety of what we That's an interesting idea, but few people even know what a Republic is, or that the US is a Republic (not a Democracy), or that the Constitution requires each state to have a "Republican form of government." Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, do you see the major economic problems coming before the A financial crisis can cause a war, and a war can trigger a financial crisis. They can occur in either order. It's possible that the war will begin with something huge -- a massive Chinese missile attack or a massive deflationary financial crisis. But in my opinion, the most likely way the war will start will be with something small -- something in the Mideast, or one of China's 21 border conflicts, or a small nation or company unable to pay its debts, triggering a chain reaction of bankruptcies. FullMoon Wrote:> The nations of the world should "see each other as members of the Yeah this is the typical Communist charm offensive, or Hitler's "peace in our time." The American press and most politicians always fall for this stuff -- hence the phrase "useful idiot." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-09-2020 (10-08-2020, 09:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though. We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age. My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea. Don't discount 'stupid' as a policy, We've seen stupid many times before; QAnon is a prime example today. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-10-2020 (10-09-2020, 09:03 AM)David Horn Wrote:(10-08-2020, 09:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(10-08-2020, 12:38 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Thus far it has only been tested in the gunpowder age, though. We'll see how things go in the nuclear weapons age. My biggest fear is that the stable form of government in the nuclear weapons age may be that of North Korea. Likewise the absurd, failed plot against Governor Whitmer (D-Michigan). A hint about conspiracies: most are harebrained plots. Just think of the superb movie Double Indemnity (the original from 1944, and definitely not the lame 1973 made-for-TV remake) to see (if participants have higher social-economic status than the usual conspirators) in one of the more common circumstances: a murder-for-hire lot in which one of the spouses seeks to dispose of an inconvenient spouse while collecting life-insurance proceeds. With the arguable exception of the July 20 plot against Satan Incarnate, conspirators are typically either underworld figures seeking some easy money or... well some clique of dimwits. The bigger the conspiracy, the more about it can go wrong, such as infiltration, people deciding to break from it to save themselves a prison term or capital punishment, or an unraveling after the fact. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2020 *** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan **** Topographical map of the Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (Al-Jazeera) A temporary truce between Armenia and Azerbaijan was mostly successful on Saturday, although each side accused the other of violating the ceasefire. The ceasefire was mediated by Russia, which applied heavy pressure to both sides to accept the agreement. It's being described as a humanitarian ceasefire, to permit the two sides to exchange prisoners, and for the Red Cross to remove dead bodies. Also, it will give both sides time to reload and resupply their weapons in preparation for the next round of fighting. The two countries are fighting over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland Karabakh") province and seven adjacent regions within Azerbaijan territory that are populated and governed by Armenians. The two countries used to be member states of the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991. A major war was fought between the two countries, and it ended in stalemate in 1994, under pressure from Russia. There have been occasional outbursts of fighting since then, but the fighting that began on September 27 of this year is the worst so far since 1994. Armenia says that its objective is that Nagorno-Karabakh should be recognized internationally as an independent state, Artsakh. That isn't going to happen. **** **** Azerbaijan's objectives **** Azerbaijan says that its objective is to gain full control of the enclave, as it is Azerbaijan territory. According to a number of tv analysts, Azerbaijan officials feel that this objective is within its grasp. Several of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh have already been captured by the Azeri army. In 1994, when Russia mediated a ceasefire, Armenia was much more militarily powerful than Azerbaijan, and was able to take over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the situations are reversed today, and Azerbaijan is more powerful militarily, according to these analysts. Furthermore, the international community is supportive of Azerbaijan since Nagorno-Karabakh is officially Azeri territory. Turkey is supporting its Turkic brother Azerbaijan, and has promised to provide military aid if necessary. Furthermore, Turkey has little concern about good relations with Armenia, having been accused of genocide against the Armenian people in 1915. Russia is close to its Eastern Orthodox Christian sister Armenia, and has a military base in Armenia, but wants to maintain good relations with both countries. Russia is applying maximum pressure to both sides to keep the ceasefire going, but it seems unlikely that the ceasefire will continue much longer. One analyst suggested that there's "horse-trading" going on. For example, Russia may convince Armenia to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in return for Turkey pulling its forces out of Syria. That's an interesting idea -- then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in the 1990s, and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could continue with its genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni Arabs in Syria's Idlib province. That would be an explosive development, so I do not believe that this particular version of "horse-trading" is likely. Meanwhile, there are other things going on in the world. I'm working every spare minute to finish up my book on Vietnam. Kyrgyzstan's government has collapsed, and people are rioting, because of alleged election fraud. China is stepping up warplane flights threatening Taiwan, is demanding that US ships stop entering international waters in the South China Sea illegally claimed by China, and is arresting anyone in Hong Kong who dares to criticize Beijing. The United States is locked into an election campaign circus, and Americans are generally completely oblivious to anything going on in the world. And many countries are trying to avoid more lockdowns, as cases of Wuhan Coronavirus have been surging in many countries, especially in Europe. And that's the way it is. Sources:
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[b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey, Russia, Artsakh, Syria Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-11-2020 It seems to play out the usual themes. One small tribal group tries to maintain control over another using superior force. The larger group they are allied with tries to maintain the peace. Is this what crisis wars have come to? If you hate another group enough, it seems a big deal to you? Eventually that hate becomes stronger than your memory of what happened last time? If you are a larger elite you have other economic fish to fry mixed with a fear of nukes, and you would rather not bother with the squabbling? Respecting minorities is the idea on the principled side, but there are enough people clinging to the old tribal prejudices that you can hardly call this principle universal. The more rural the area, the more likely the tribal mode of thinking is to get out of hand. For the US it is a hatred of minorities, and attempt to keep your tribal ‘superiority’ up. For others, the government is still officially making war on the other ethnic group. The pattern of tribe and hostility is left over from the Agricultural Age when it used to be cost effective. We are still not rid of it yet. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-11-2020 ** 11-Oct-2020 World View: Response to Azerbaijan-Armenia article I received a message from an Azerbaijan official, in response to today's article on the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Quote:> "This sentence is the most offensive and ridiculous of My response: Quote:> "You're right that the sentence you've referenced is Here's his response to me: Quote:> "Dear Mr Xenakis, The last sentence made me chuckle. Generational Dynamics is all about ancient history, and how it keeps getting repeated today. At any rate, it's clear that this conflict is very far from being over. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-11-2020 Interesting that an Azeri official is reading your work. I would have thought he would have appreciated your characterization of the Armenian behavior after occupying Nagorno-Karabach! You owe them a full generational analysis regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan now. I love his statement that 50,000 Azerbaijanis will return and reoccupy their homes peacefully. I guess he's a diplomat who is trained to pretend that none of those homes have been destroyed, occupied by others, or allowed to fall into disrepair. Out of curiosity, what was the revised sentence? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-11-2020 The revised sentence is: "then the Azeris could massacre the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh in revenge for the massacre of Azeris by Armenians in the 1990s..." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-13-2020 John, I wonder what your thoughts are on this little tiff between South Korea and the US: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/10/120_297513.html Considering that political alignments can change rapidly in a crisis period, what does Generational Dynamics say about the natural alignments in this region? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-13-2020 North Korea is an anathema to the conser4vative, pro-business Right in America as ever, and it has never been able to win much support among America's extreme Left. Liberals hate it. Most Americans would prefer that the Empire of Northern Korea die as a political system. Whether that results in a veritable satellite of the PRC or gets absorbed into a democratic, free-enterprise, nuke-free, non-aligned Korean Republic, its system is doomed. Under erratic leadership it is likely to do something incredibly stupid. Just think of Iraq under the criminal Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein may have been evil, but not crazy. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-13-2020 ** 13-Oct-2020 World View: Korean alignments (10-13-2020, 01:28 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, I wonder what your thoughts are on this little tiff between I've had a hard time trying to "read" the Korean people. They like Americans (doesn't everyone?), they're forced to ally with the Japanese even though they hate the Japanese, and they hate the Chinese (doesn't everyone?), but their comfort zone is total vassal dependency on China. On top of that, the country is split in two, and the North Koreans are actively preparing to invade the South at a time of their choosing. The South Koreans like Americans, but don't like the fact that they depend on America for defense. They particularly dislike it when an American official tells them what to do, which is the sort of thing that American officials do all the time. My guess is that the outburst by Korean Ambassador Lee Soo-hyuck was a response to some American comments on how the South Koreans should change their policies. That could really piss them off. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-16-2020 ** 16-Oct-2020 World View: Notes from the Vietnam war As I've mentioned several times, I've been spending every spare minute writing a book on the history of Vietnam, following up on my books on the history of China and Japan and the history of Iran and Islam. It will be very nice to add one more book to my collection of books in the "Generational Theory Book Series." The history of Vietnam is very complex, much more complex than the history of China, but I've now pretty much completed the history narrative up to the "American-Vietnam war," and like most things, the public understanding of this war is almost 100% wrong. Most people view this as a war between America and Ho Chi Minh's North Vietnam. Har, har, har. So I now look at it as three separate wars:
With regard to the second of these, the role of the United States was total farce. The South Vietnam president Ngo Dinh Diem wanted to implement a plan called "Strategic Hamlets" that would move the South Vietnamese civilians into fortified areas, and protect them from terrorist attacks by the Viet Cong. Diem depended on the US for weapons and logistics. President John Kennedy supplied the weapons, but his chief adviser William Averell Harriman hated Diem, and did many things to sabotage the whole project. On November 1, 1963, Harriman succeeded in getting Diem ousted, and on November 2, Diem was assassinated. Ho Chi Minh believed that Diem was "one of the strongest people resisting ... Communism," and was quoted as saying, "I can scarcely believe the Americans would be so stupid." It turned out later that there was another problem. The South Vietnamese general in charge of the Strategic Hamlet program was Albert Pham Ngoc Thao, who turns out to be a traitor who was sabotaging the program and feeding information to Ho Chi Minh. He was discovered and executed in 1965. The Vietnam war got much worse after Diem's assassination. More to follow. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019 Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-17-2020 (10-16-2020, 08:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Oct-2020 World View: Notes from the Vietnam war Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war. Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form? |