Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Paki - John J. Xenakis - 05-24-2016 *** 25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port **** Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports (Defence.pk) In a two-day visit to Iran's capital city Tehran, India's prime minister Narendra Modi and Iran's president Hassan Rouhani signed a dozen commercial, security and cultural agreements. The most important was the "historic" Chabahar Port agreement. Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has agreed to invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of this port. Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping goods to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe. (Chabahar is the large red star on the map above, and the red lines are proposed travel routes from Mumbai to Chabahar, through Iran to Central Asia and Europe.) The proposal fo build up the Chabahar has been discussed since the 1990s, but agreements have been slow to come. Then the whole project was put on hold because of international sanctions on Tehran. So this deal comes just four months after international sanctions have been lifted. China has been investing heavily in the Pakistan's port at Gwadar, shown by the large purple star in the map above. The purple lines show China's trade routes to the Mideast:
A visitor from Mars might wonder why India doesn't just ship commercial goods over land through Pakistan to the port of Gwadar or to Iran. The answer is that in December of last year, Pakistan's government said that it would not permit Indian goods to be transported across Pakistan. Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani was also in Tehran on Tuesday to join in the announcement of the Chabahar Port agreement. The agreement is significant for Afghanistan, because it will mean a great deal of increased trade with its ally, India. Indian Express and Tehran Times and Dawn (Pakistan - 10-Dec-2015) **** **** Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China **** Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani and Ashraf Ghani in Tehran on Tuesday (PTI) Long-time readers are aware that for ten years I've been reporting that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, America will be allied with India, Russia and Iran, versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal" ) In the case of Iran, the generational analysis was pretty straightforward. In the early 2000s, there were numerous pro-Western and pro-American riots and demonstrations by college students in Iran. Of course, the Iranian hardliners crushed them violently, but doing that didn't change any hearts and minds. Today, those college students are in the 30s, in positions of power, and they retain those pro-Western views. ( "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement" ) Obviously, that analysis only goes back about 15 years. But in fact, Hindus and Shias have been closely linked for many centuries, and it's particularly significant that in 681 AD Hindus fought on the side of (what would become) the Shias in the most important battle in Islam's post-Mohammed history -- the Battle of Karbala, the battle that permanently split the Muslim world of the time into the Sunni and Shia branches. During the visit by India's prime minister Narendra Modi to Tehran, Modi gave a speech that emphasized the long relationship between the two cultures: [indent]<QUOTE>"Centuries of free exchange of ideas and traditions, poets and craftsmen, art and architecture, culture and commerce have enriched both our civilizations. Our heritage has also been a source of strength and economic growth for our nations. The richness of Persian heritage is an integral part of the fabric of the Indian society. A part of Iranian culture lives in Indian hearts. And, a slice of Indian heritage is woven into the Iranian society. Our ancient heroes and epics bear striking parallels. The dargahs of Azmer Sharif and Hazrat Nizamuddin in India are equally revered in Iran. Mahabharata and Shahnama, Bhima and Rustam, Arjuna and Arsh exhibit similarity in our world views and values. ... As two ancient civilizations, we are known for our ability to be inclusive and welcoming to foreign cultures. Our contacts have not just refined our own cultures. They have also contributed to the growth of moderate and tolerant societies globally. Sufism a rich product of our ancient links, carried its message of true love, tolerance and acceptance to the entire mankind. The spirit of Sufism is also reflected in the Indian concept of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, the World as one family. ... India and Iran have always been partners and friends. Our historical ties may have seen their share of ups and downs. But, throughout our partnership has remained a source of boundless strength for both of us. Time has come for us to regain the past glory of traditional ties and links. Time has come for us to march together. In this endeavor, you, the eminent scholars have a defining role to play."<END QUOTE>[/indent] After reading that, compare it to the words of China's president Xi Jinping when he visited Pakistan in April of last year to sign numerous commercial, security and cultural agreements, including plans for a $46 billion transportation corridor from Xinjiang province to the port of Gwadar. ( "27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan" ) During Xi's "historic" visit to Pakistan, he said the following: [indent]<QUOTE>"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years, thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship “higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the hearts of our two peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent] In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." These two displays of deep affection, India with Iran and China with Pakistan, may sound like true love, but they're the portent of things to come, the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit India, Iran and others versus China, Pakistan and others, in the bloodiest and most destructive war in world history. Narendri Modi and Times of India and Pakistan Observer **** **** Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra **** During Narendra Modi's speech, excerpted above, Modi said the following: [indent]<QUOTE>"India and Iran are two civilizations that celebrate the meeting of our great cultures. The rare Persian manuscript Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, released just now, captures the close historical links between India and Iran. It is remarkable how the simple stories of the Indian classics of Jataka and Panchatantra became the Persian Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. It is a classic example of exchange and travel of cultural ideas between two societies. A beautiful demonstration of how our two cultures and countries think alike. A true depiction of the wisdom of our ancient civilizations."<END QUOTE>[/indent] I had never heard of these classics, but I checked out the Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. I've only had time to skim through it, but it's a fascinating collection of fables and stories that remind me of Aesop's Fables. It would be well worth your time, Dear Reader, to take a look for yourself. Kalileh-wa-Dimneh **** **** The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road **** The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe In ancient times the Silk Road, a complex road network, was the most favored transport route between China and Europe. Today, there's a great deal of renewed interest in developing a New Silk Road, new trade routes between Asia and Europe. This article describes two such trade routes, through the ports of Chabahar and Gwadar, respectively. It's worth mentioning one additional trade route from Asia to Europe, the Caspian Corridor, that I've written about before. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey" ) The plan is to develop infrastructure within the Caspian Sea to effectively connect Central Asia to the Caucasus region. Goods can travel overland from India and China through Central Asia by truck and railway, to a port on the Caspian Sea. From there, the goods are ferried across the Caspian Sea to a port in Azerbaijan. From there, they can travel overland again, through Georgia, Turkey, and then into Europe, including Ukraine. The Caspian Corridor is suitable for Pakistan and China, but not for India, since it would require land transport across Pakistan, which apparently has been forbidden. In fact, Pakistan and China have effectively isolated India from Afghanistan and Central Asia. India has been forced to use costly and impractical routes to reach the heart of Asia and Asiatic Russia. For that reason, the Chabahar port project is considered a "game changer," and will make a significant difference for India and Afghanistan. According to Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani: "A hundred years from now historians will remember this day as the start of regional cooperation. We wanted to prove that geography is not our destiny. With our will we can change geography." Deccan Chronicle (India) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar, Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Battle of Karbala, Shias, Sunnis, Hindus, Masood Khan, Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka, Panchatantra, Aesop, Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan - John J. Xenakis - 05-25-2016 *** 26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China **** Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's new president (Reuters) Just four days after Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen took office, she is already facing a major political crisis with China, after a major election victory in January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election" ) As I wrote in my January article, Taiwan-China relations are sure to be tumultuous as soon as Tsai takes office, and that is happening very quickly. Since 2008, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors the "one China" principle and unification with mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's claims in the South China Sea. Tsai is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which in the past has favored Taiwan independence from China. When the DPP was in power prior to 2008, relations between China and Taiwan so bad that in 2005 Beijing passed an "anti-secession law" saying that China would take military action against Taiwan if there were any moves or speeches in the direction of Taiwan independence from China. So in Tsai's inauguration speech five days ago, Tsai said that she "respected" the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but did not say what the common understanding was. According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle." According to Beijing: [indent]<QUOTE>"The current developments across the Taiwan Straits are becoming complex and grave. ... Since 2008, the two sides of the Straits, acting on the common political foundation of adhering to the 1992 Consensus and opposing "Taiwan independence", have embarked on the path of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. ... The key to ensuring peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations lies in adhering to the 1992 Consensus, which constitutes the political basis of cross-Straits relations. The 1992 Consensus explicitly sets out the fundamental nature of relations across the Taiwan Straits. It states that both the Mainland and Taiwan belong to one and the same China and that cross-Straits relations are not state-to-state relations. The 1992 Consensus was reached with explicit authorization of the two sides and has been affirmed by leaders of both sides. It thus constitutes the cornerstone of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. We have noted that in her address today, the new leader of the Taiwan authorities stated that the 1992 talks ... reached some common understanding, and that she will handle affairs of cross-Straits relations in keeping with the existing defining document and related regulations and continue to advance the peaceful and stable growth of cross-Straits relations on the basis of the established political foundation. However, she was ambiguous about the fundamental issue, the nature of cross-Straits relations, an issue that is of utmost concern to people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. She did not explicitly recognize the 1992 Consensus and its core implications, and made no concrete proposal for ensuring the peaceful and stable growth of cross-Straits relations. Hence, this is an incomplete test answer. A choice of different path leads to different future. This is a choice between upholding the common political foundation that embodies the one China principle and pursuing separatist propositions of "Taiwan independence" such as "two Chinas" or "one country on each side". This is a choice between staying on the path of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations and repeating the past practice of provoking cross-Straits tension and instability. And this is a choice between enhancing the affinity and well-being of people on both sides and severing their blood ties and undermining their fundamental interests. The Taiwan authorities must give explicit answer with concrete actions to all these major questions and face the test of history and the people. ... "Taiwan independence" remains the biggest menace to peace across the Taiwan Straits and the peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. Pursuing "Taiwan independence" can in no way bring peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. The common will of people on both sides of the Straits are not to be defied. Today, we remain as determined as ever to uphold national sovereignty and territorial integrity and have ever stronger ability to do so. We will resolutely forestall any separatist moves and plots to pursue "Taiwan independence" in any form."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Beijing is demanding that "Taiwan must clarify this issue with practical action and allow the examination of the people and history." Tsai won the January election overwhelmingly because the people of Taiwan, especially the younger generations, increasingly identify as "Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese." The KMT is a party of older generations. If Tsai complied with China's demands and unambiguously recognized the 1992 Consensus, there would probably be anti-Chinese "Sunflower movement" riots in the streets, as there were frequently the last time the DPP was in power, and those riots will probably overflow into Hong Kong, where there could be a renewal of anti-Chinese "Umbrella movement" riots. So China's demands of Tsai are quite ominous, and the political situation will be extremely volatile no matter what Tsai decides to do. China Radio International's English Service and Xinhua **** **** IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece **** The eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, announced on Wednesday morning that they had reached deal to provide a new bailout to Greece, and also announced that the deal complies with the demands by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for "debt relief" for Greece, and that debt relief will be provided by 2018. The new 10.3 billion euro bailout loan to Greece would allow Greece to make a July 1 debt repayment and avoid bankruptcy. It's expected that, as in the past, about one-third of the bailout loan would come from the IMF, which is funded by the United States and other countries, and two-thirds would come from eurozone institutions. The IMF demand for "debt relief" alludes to the fact that Greece can never pay off its debt. Readers who have been following this issue for years and years can well remember crisis after crisis, with a decision each time to "kick the can down the road" by granting Greece a new bailout loan so that they could use it to avoid immediate bankruptcy. (This technique is sometimes called "Using your Visa credit card to pay your Master Card bill.") However, the IMF announced that for this, the first 2016 crisis, they would not simply kick the can down the road, but would demand debt relief. Since most of Greece's 300 billion euro debt is owed to European Union (eurozone) institutions, the eurozone has it within its power to reduce Greece's debt so that Greece could one day be debt-free. The main opponent of debt relief has always been the Germans, especially Germany's cranky finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. So the finance ministers reached a compromise on the debt relief issue, "extending the repayment period and capping interest rates." What does that mean? Details were not provided, but speculation was that interest rates would be close to zero until 2050, and Greece would not have to repay the debt in full until 2100. By that time Wolfgang Schäuble would be dead, and indeed so would all the other finance ministers. So the finance ministers announced that they'd agreed on debt relief, and had met the IMF's demands. However, an IMF official disagreed, saying: [indent]<QUOTE>"Greece is in a situation where it needs a disbursement, and so we were certainly willing to concede on some points. But we have not conceded on the point that we need adequate assurances regarding debt relief before we go to our board... I am hopeful we will get there. ... We are not in the situation where the IMF can say that we're ready to move ahead. But... given what we have got from the Europeans, given what they committed to, I'm hopeful that we can get to that point by the end of the year."<END QUOTE>[/indent] By the end of the year? It looks like another crisis in the making. Kathimerini and BBC and AFP KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Anti-Secession Law, Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-May-16 World View -- Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect Hajj - John J. Xenakis - 05-26-2016 *** 27-May-16 World View -- Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** A disastrous year in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia **** View of the streets of Mina where the stampede occurred during the Hajj in 2015 (AP) Sectarian Sunni versus Shia relations in the Mideast have worsened significantly in the last year, largely driven by Iran's support of the Syria's genocidal Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, who for five years has been conducting a war of extermination against his own Sunni citizens. The Hajj takes place each year in Mecca, in Saudi Arabia. It's Islam's holiest event, commemorating rituals that date back to the prophet Abraham, and then codified by the prophet Mohamed in the Quran. Each Muslim is required to make a pilgrimage to the Hajj at least once in his lifetime. Last year, about two million Muslims from 180 countries around the world arrived in Saudi Arabia for their once in a lifetime Hajj pilgrimage. This year, the dates of the Hajj are September 9-14. The worst disaster to befall the Hajj in modern times occurred last year when two large groups of pilgrims arrived together at a crossroads in Mina, a few kilometers outside the holy city of Mecca. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims were walking towards the site of one of the most important rituals, "stoning the devil," which requires throwing seven stones at a pillar representing Satan in the city of Mina. However, when two massive crowds converged on the same narrow street, the people in front were forced to stop, while the ones hundreds of meters to the rear kept on walking. All of this took place under a burning hot sun, with a temperature of 46 degrees centigrade (= 114 degrees fahrenheit). The result was that hundreds of pilgrims suffocated or were trampled to death, including many elderly people and children. ( "27-Sep-15 World View -- After Hajj stampede disaster, Muslims debate the 'Will of Allah'" ) The stampede caused the death of at least 769 pilgrims, of which 464 were Iranians, according to the Saudis. There have been claims that up to 2,200 pilgrims were killed in the stampede. From the beginning, Iran called the stampede "a crime," and demanded that the Saudis be prosecuted in international courts. The Saudis said that the stamped was cause by Iranian pilgrims "not following instructions." Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran took a major step towards increased hostility in January of this year, when Saudi Arabia executed 47 alleged terrorists -- 46 Sunnis and one Shia, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, infuriating Iran and Shias because it implied that Shia terrorism is equivalent to Sunni terrorism. Iranian mobs firebombed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and attacked the consulate in Meshaad. ( "18-Jan-16 World View -- Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran" ) After the firebombing of the Saudi embassy in Tehran, Saudi Arabia and Iran broke diplomatic relations. Other Saudi allies followed suit. In January, the Saudis halted trade and airline flights with Iran. Then, at the beginning of April, the Saudis banned Iran's airline, Mahan Air, from flying through Saudi airspace at all, or landing at its airports, saying that Mahan was in violation of safety regulations. This affected around 150 direct flights per month between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The National (UAE, 5-Apr) and Al Bawaba (Palestine, 6-Apr) and Press TV (Tehran, 5-Apr) **** **** Iran bans Iranians from attending the Hajj in 2016 **** With the 2016 Hajj approaching, Saudi Arabia and Iran have made the Hajj an issue in the severe hostility existing between the two countries. The issues are as follows:
Since the beginning of May, the Iranians and Saudis have been in talks, attempting to find a way to resolve this issue. However, the two countries are still at an impasse, and an Iranian official said Iran was "very concerned over the security of Iranians during the holy ceremony." Al Arabiya (12-May) and Al Jazeera and Leadership (Nigeria) and Al Monitor **** **** Far left anti-government riots spread across France **** Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across France on Thursday to protest the government's proposed labor reform bill. In Paris, protests descended into violence, with protesters throwing projectiles and police firing bouts of teargas. Across the country, rioters blockaded roads and oil refineries, resulting in a shortage of petrol. France has the shortest legal working week in Europe, at 35 hours. The 35 hour work week would be kept, but the new law would make it easier for employers to lay people off. Layoffs are currently almost impossible in France, but the reforms would allow companies whose revenues have fallen for four consecutive quarters to lay people off. France has a 10.5% unemployment rate, compared with 5.4% in the UK and 4.8% in Germany. Most observers blame France's high unemployment rate on the fact that employers are reluctant to hire anyone, especially young people, since it's almost impossible to fire them if they're incompetent. According to reports, the far-left activists calling for the strikes and riots feel betrayed because the labor reforms are being proposed by France's Socialist president François Hollande who, they feel, should completely support the far left. As I wrote a few days ago, we're seeing in many countries complete rejection of established politicians by young Millennials, and deep polarization as large segments of the population move to the far left, while other segments move to far right. This is what happened in the 1930s, leading to World War II, and we can expect to see more riots and demonstrations on the far right and the far left, as these countries go deeper into a generational Crisis era. France 24 and BBC KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Mecca, Hajj, Mina, Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Manar Air, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Dubai, France, François Hollande Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran - John J. Xenakis - 05-27-2016 *** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah **** 1938: English girls giving Nazi salute returning from a field trip to Germany - 'We had the time of our lives!' (Der Spiegel) As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Iran, India and Russia will be allied with the West against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab nations in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. For the last few weeks, there have been increasingly widespread reports in the media that Israel and Saudi Arabia have all but severed ties with the United States, and are forming an independent military alliance against Iran. This development runs counter to a very powerful Generational Dynamics trend prediction, and so it needs to be analyzed. Either the trend prediction is wrong (which it isn't), or the Israel-Saudi alliance must be relatively short-lived. Several days ago, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly announced a significant change in policy, as he asked the Arab nations to help in a "real deal" with the Palestinians: [indent]<QUOTE>"The initiatives I’m referring to are regional initiatives – meaning, aided by the Arab countries in the region to reach a real deal with the Palestinians. We always thought it would be the opposite, but that is the direction today. I am constantly trying, including over the last few hours, to further contacts with various leaders in the region to help in this direction."<END QUOTE>[/indent] A couple of days previously, Netanyahu responded to an offer by Egypt's president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians by saying, "Israel is ready to participate with Egypt and other Arab states in advancing both the diplomatic process and stability in the region. I appreciate President al-Sisi’s work and also draw encouragement from his leadership on this important issue." According to reports, the Arab countries include Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt. Netanyahu had previously rejected the help of Arab mediators in the Palestinian issue, because they were insisting on the "right of return," which would allow the descendants of Palestinians lost their homes in the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs to reclaim their grandparents' real estate. However, reports suggest that the Arab nations are backing off from that demand. The Palestinian issue is only the latest of the issues uniting the Saudis, Egyptians and Israelis. As we've reported for years, President Obama has managed to alienate all three countries and offended their leaders. This has led to a shared sense of betrayal and abandonment, especially after Obama's vigorous pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran, creating a widespread impression that he was more interested in a good relationship with Iran than with them. There have been signs that the rapprochement in Israel's relationship with Egypt and Saudi Arabia have crossed over into the military sphere. Israel and Egypt signed a 1979 peace treaty that Egypt's Sinai peninsula was a demilitarized zone. Yet Israel has approved Egypt's requests to move additional troops into Sinai, near the border with Israel. More recently, Israel raised no objections to Egypt's transferring two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, even though the transfer affected Israel's security. Israel and Saudi Arabia share the common interest and belief that the biggest threat is Iran. Reports have surfaced in the past that the Saudis gave Jerusalem approval for Air Force jets to pass through their airspace if Israel decides to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. This suggests that Israel and Saudi Arabia have military to military contacts regarding Iran, and may be sharing intelligence or making other plans. Breaking Israel News and Israel National News and Politico (EU) and Jerusalem Post (12-Apr) **** **** Iran and Hezbollah turn focus of hostility from Israel to Saudi Arabia **** According to recent reports, Israel has ordered Hezbollah to suspend operations against Israel and to target Saudi Arabia instead. Lebanon's Shia terrorist group Hezbollah and its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah have been Iran's puppets for decades, and have had as their main objective "resistance" to Israel, or the destruction of Israel. Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in Lebanon in 2006, and Hezbollah has supported Hamas and other Palestinian groups in conducting terror operations against Israel and Israeli targets. But the war in Syria has changed all that. Under orders from Iran, Hezbollah sent thousands of its fighters into Syria to fight alongside the army of the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The targets have been anyone who opposes al-Assad, all the way from peaceful protesters and children in school all the way to the jihadist groups, so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). Last week, Nasrallah admitted for the first time that he had lost "a large number" of his fighters in battles in Syria. Some reports give a figure of 1,500 to 2,000, or one-third of his entire army. The new orders from Iran were triggered by a number of devastating Iranian and Hezbollah losses in Syria, including the assassination of Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who was leading Hezbollah forces in Syria. ( "14-May-16 World View -- Syria's Aleppo campaign falters after disastrous Iranian loss at Khan Tuman" ) The death of Badreddine was extremely significant, and statements by Iran and Hezbollah make it clear that they blame his death on jihadist forces funded and supported by Saudi Arabia. As we reported yesterday, Iran has announced that it would not let its citizens participate in the Hajj in Mecca on September 9-14. This is Islam's holiest event, and non-participation by Iran is quite significant. ( "27-May-16 World View -- Increasingly hostile Iran-Saudi relations affect this year's Hajj" ) According to reports, Iran has instructed Hezbollah to initiate actions against Saudi Arabia before the beginning of the Hajj in September. Middle East Eye (17-May) and Middle East Eye and Reuters (20-May) and Al Arabiya (20-May) **** **** Shifting Israeli alliances in the Mideast **** I am asked frequently it's conceivably even POSSIBLE that Iran will be an American ally in the coming world war, as I've been predicting for ten years would happen, given the political situation of the last ten years. There are examples in World War II that serve as precedents. Russia and Josef Stalin were our bitter enemies before the war, but we were allies during the war. Britain and Nazi Germany were close before the war, but were bitter enemies during the war. Before the war, Germany and Russia signed a non-aggression pact, called the Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty, but Germany invaded Russia anyway. A generational crisis war, like World War II, is very different from an "ordinary" war because it's considered existential, a threat to the very existence of a country and it's way of life. None of the wars that America experience since the end of WW II -- Korean war, Vietnam war, Iraq wars -- was anything like that. Non-crisis wars are based on political decisions. You have Christmas truces in non-crisis wars. Crisis wars are based visceral hatred, a desire to exterminate. There are no Christmas truces. So right now, Saudi Arabia and Israel are allied against Iran. But this is a purely political alliance. There is no visceral hatred among Israelis for Iranians, and there is no visceral hatred among Iranians for Israelis. (See, for example, "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement" ) On the other hand, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran is based on deeply visceral hatred. We see signs of this all the time, such as the Iranian firebombing of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in January, with apology forthcoming. Iran and Saudi Arabia will be involved in an extremely bloody generational crisis war with absolute certainty, and it appears that the time is approaching rapidly. So what about Israel? There is little hatred between Israelis and Iranians, but there's enormous hatred between Israelis and Palestinians, particularly among younger generations. The prediction that I first posted in May 2003 is still just as true today as it was then: Jews and Arabs are headed for a new generational crisis war, re-fighting the 1948-49 genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. (From 2003: "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?") OK, so what about Egypt? Israel and Egypt have had a peace treaty for over a quarter century. Will Israel be at war with Egypt? To address that question, one first has to point out that Egypt is at war with itself. Egypt's army is fighting ISIS and Bedouins in Sinai, and there have been major riots targeting Coptic Christians in Egypt. This example is a small illustration of a vastly larger problem in analyzing generational trends in the Mideast -- that there are ethnic fault lines that go beyond the easily predicted sectarian fault lines. Especially with the rise of ISIS, al-Nusra and the Kurds, we can already see signs of Sunnis fighting Sunnis in Syria, for example. What's needed is a deep, thorough analysis of the trends among all the ethnic groups in the Mideast. Remarkably, this would be a lot easier today than it was even ten years ago, because today there's a huge wealth of social media that can be looked at. Analyzing that huge volume of social media is far more work than I'm capable of accomplishing. But if some college student is looking for a thesis topic in order to accomplish something really important and develop valuable information on the future of the Mideast, then this is it. Der Spiegel (13-Jun-2013) and World War II: The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Benjamin Netanyahu, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, Hezbollah, Iran, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Lebanon, Bashar al-Assad, Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Russia, Josef Stalin, Nazi Germany, Molotov-Ribbentrop Treaty Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-May-16 World View -- Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose - John J. Xenakis - 05-28-2016 *** 29-May-16 World View -- Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Economic collapse of Venezuela will devastate the entire Caribbean region **** Typical food supermarket in Venezuela According to a statement by Venezuela's president Nicolás Maduro Moros, his predecessor "[Hugo] Chávez earned a place in heaven" by subsidizing heating oil to 150,000 low-income American families, and especially by the PetroCaribe program, which subsidizes oil for many Caribbean and Central American companies. However, Venezuela's Socialist economy spirals into collapse, all of these subsidy programs are in jeopardy, and ending the programs could seriously destabilize the region, as many countries are already in economic difficulties. The PetroCaribe program began in 2005, at a time when Venezuela was making huge amounts of money from selling oil. Under the program, a Venezuela lends the country most of the cost of the oil under very lenient terms -- 25 year loans with interest rates as low as 1%. In addition, Venezuela accepts debt payments in kind. For the last 10 years, it has received payments in bananas, rice, jeans, medical assistance and “intelligence” services (from Cuba). Estimates are that this costs Venezuela $2-3 billion per year in lost income. This was not a problem a few years ago, but with the economy collapsing, it is today. In a recent visit to Jamaica, Maduro insisted that Venezuela is still committed to the PetroCaribe program: [indent]<QUOTE>"We are fully convinced that in the last 10 years, PetroCaribe has clearly demonstrated that it’s only together that we can reach development and (achieve) happiness for our peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent] If Maduro is correct that PetroCaribe is needed to achieve happiness for Latin American peoples, then the logical conclusion is that there will be a lot of unhappiness in Latin America if PetroCaribe ends. That's exactly the conclusion of New York based Latin America analysts LATAM PM. Venezuela has almost $2 billion in debt due in October, $3 billion in November and almost $4 billion in April 2017, making default almost certain. According to LATAM PM: [indent]<QUOTE>Inflation hit 180.9 per cent and the economy contracted 5.7 per cent last year, according to central bank figures. Contagion risks are significant: on one hand, regional risk could spike, with Brazil and Ecuador already in a recession. PetroCaribe ... is also in big danger. Between 2004 and 2008, Venezuela experienced an economic miracle. Its economy grew ten per cent on average every year, while GDP per capita expanded by 26 per cent. Now Venezuela is going backwards. By 2018, the country will reach the GDP seen in 2005, but with a population six million (20 per cent larger). GDP per capita will fall to 2000 levels by 2018, as if 18 years had never occurred for the economy."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Members of the PetroCaribe program include Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Haiti, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Guatemala left the program in 2013. From the Caribbean, only the oil producers Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados refused Venezuela’s offer. The inevitable end of the PetroCaribe program will have significant impact on most of these countries. The region spends around 15% of its GDP on oil imports, and many of the countries have a strong dependency on Venezuela's cheap oil. According to LATAM PM, "the existence of PetroCaribe is a matter of time and this will bring economic instability to Central America and the Caribbean." Jamaica Observer and Nation News (Barbados) and LATAM PM (29-Feb) and Economist (4-Oct-2014) **** **** Lufthansa suspends flights to Venezuela over non-payment **** As has been frequently reported, the citizens of Venezuela are suffering one indignity after another, thanks to the approaching collapse of Venezuela's Socialist economy. These indignities include jailing of factory owners, and severe shortages of everything from toilet paper to beer. ( "15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners" ) On Saturday, the German airline Lufthansa announced that it is suspending all flights to Venezuela as of June 18. The reason is that many airline fares are paid in Venezuela's bolivar currency, which has become practically worthless, with the highest inflation rate in the world. Reuters **** **** Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise **** I was startled to hear analyst Yolanda Valery on the BBC describe the unfolding some of the history of the tenure of Hugo Chávez, as he worked to create his Socialist paradise. In the mid-2000s decade, Venezuela was swimming in money. Starting in 2006-7, Chávez put a plan into action to turn Venezuela into a pure Socialist state. The plan was as follows:
Nobody would think of awarding Chávez or any of his acolytes (Sean Penn, Michael Moore, Oliver Stone, Jeremy Corbyn) any prizes for anything but sheer stupidity, but this plan is about the dumbest thing I've ever seen. This reminds me of Mao Zedong's plan to create a Socialist Paradise in China -- the Great Leap Forward of 1958-59. 500,000,000 peasants were taken out of their individual homes and put into communes, creating a massive human work force. The workers were organized along military lines of companies, battalions, and brigades. Each person's activities were rigidly supervised. Mao's stipulated purpose was to mobilize the entire population to transform China into a socialist powerhouse -- producing both food and industrial goods -- much faster than might otherwise be possible. This would be both a national triumph and an ideological triumph, proving to the world that socialism could triumph over capitalism. The Great Leap Forward was a disastrous failure, and tens of millions of people died of starvation. BBC: Venezuela on the Brink (MP3 at 17:30) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez, PetroCaribe, Caribbean, LATAM PM, Lufthansa, Yolanda Valery, China, Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-May-16 World View -- Decoration Day: Commemorating America's heroes and Verdun - John J. Xenakis - 05-29-2016 *** 30-May-16 World View -- Decoration Day: Commemorating America's heroes and the Battle of Verdun This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Decoration Day **** May 30, 1912: About 700 Civil War veterans marched in this parade on Decoration Day in Los Angeles (LA Times) Decoration Day was officially designated on May 5th, 1868, by President Ulysses Grant, to honor and decorate with flowers the graves of fallen soldiers during the Civil War. It was officially proclaimed on by General John Logan, national commander of the Grand Army of the Republic, in his General Order No. 11: [indent]<QUOTE>"The 30th of May, 1868, is designated for the purpose of strewing with flowers, or otherwise decorating the graves of comrades who died in defense of their country during the late rebellion, and whose bodies now lie in almost every city, village and hamlet churchyard in the land."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The date of Decoration Day, as he called it, was chosen because it wasn’t the anniversary of any particular battle. Following World War I, Decoration Day was changed to Memorial Day, to honor Americans who died fighting in any war, not just the Civil War. Memorial Day is different from Veterans Day, which honors living veterans. In 1971, Congress passed the National Holiday Act of 1971, making Memorial Day the last Monday in May, and a federal holiday, ensuring a three-day weekend. Almost every state now observes the holiday, although some southern states have an additional separate day for honoring the Confederate war dead: January 19th in Texas; April 26th in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi; May 10th in South Carolina; and June 3rd (Jefferson Davis’ birthday) in Louisiana and Tennessee. Washington Post and US Memorial Day and LA Times **** **** Germany and France commemorate the centenary of the Battle of Verdun **** Angela Merkel and François Hollande commemorate the Battle of Verdun on Sunday (AFP) Verdun was the longest battle of World War I, a savage confrontation lasting 10 months and leaving 800,000 German and French soldiers dead, wounded or missing. The Germans fired two million shells in the opening eight-hour bombardment, and tens of millions were fired over the course of the conflict. The Germans initially gained five miles of ground in the battle, but over time the French regained the ground they had lost. Officially, France was the victor, but they had nothing to show for their victory but piles of dead bodies. On Sunday, German chancellor Angela Merkel and France's president François Hollande led a ceremony in the city of Verdun, to commemorate the battle's 100th anniversary. Both Merkel and Hollande related the battle to today's migrant and Brexit crises, which are threatening to tear the European Union apart. Merkel said: [indent]<QUOTE>"The name Verdun stands for incomprehensible cruelty and the futility of war as well as the lessons learnt and the German-French reconciliation. ... War is possible. We must remain vigilant to avoid it ... All these dead are the victims of nationalism, of stubborn blindness and the failings of politicians."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Hollande warned against "forces of division" in Europe, saying "Disenchantment has given way to bitterness, doubt to suspicion and, for some, rejection or even separation." The ceremony was held at Douaumont Ossuary, which contains the bones of 130,000 German and French soldiers. BBC and Irish Times **** **** The Germany - France reconciliation - 1984 **** The iconic photo of Mitterrand and Kohl at Verdun in 1984 Although reconciliation between Germany and France was every European leader's goal after World War II, the bitter war kept them separated. By 1984, the people in the generations of Nazi and French leaders who had fought the war were finally mostly gone, and reconciliation was finally possible. Above is the highly emotional photo of Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand standing hand-in-hand during a 1984 commemoration ceremony at Verdun. It's an iconic photo illustrating reconciliation that took place between their respective nations after two world wars. This was the 68th anniversary of the Battle of Verdun. Kohl and Mitterrand issued a joint statement: [indent]<QUOTE>"France and Germany have learnt lessons from our history. Europe is our common fatherland. We are heirs of a grand European tradition. This is why, forty years ago, we ended our fratricidal war and began to build our future together. We were reconciled, we came to an agreement, we became friends. European unification is our common goal – this is what we are working towards – in the spirit of fraternity."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Today in History and International Herald Tribune (29-May-1966) **** **** Red poppies in Flanders Field **** Red poppies in Flanders Field (LaMa Arts) Many people wear red poppies on Memorial Day, to commemorate the dead. The tradition came about because of the following poem, written by a Canadian soldier fighting in World War I: [indent]<QUOTE>In Flanders Fields By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918) Canadian Army IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow Between the crosses row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, fly Scarce heard amid the guns below. We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields.<END QUOTE>[/indent] Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae died of pneumonia and meningitis in Boulogne, France, on January 28th, 1918. The poppy is Canada's official Flower of Remembrance. LaMa Arts and Flanders Fields Music **** **** Pacifism and the futility of war **** At Sunday's commemoration of the Battle of Verdun, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, "The name Verdun stands for incomprehensible cruelty and the futility of war." If any battle illustrates the futility of war, then the Battle of Verdun does. The German attack won five miles of ground which the French recovered in the weeks that followed. What was the point? In fact, you could ask the same thing about all of World War I and World War II. There have been some small boundary changes in Europe in the last century, but hardly worth hundreds of millions of people killed. If the futility of war is so obvious, then why are there wars? Why isn't everyone a pacifist? From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the answer is simple: The world's population grows faster than the world's food supply. That means that, eventually, some people will have to be exterminated so that there'll be food for the rest. The same reasoning applies to other resources. A good example is the Mideast. The Israelis and the Palestinians have some of the fastest growing populations in the world. Each year, more and more people are jam-packed into Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. And the Israelis and Palestinians hate each other. (Incidentally, the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank hate each other also, to a lesser extent.) All these Israeli and Palestinian children are simply cannon fodder for the next war. People who talk about "two nations, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and harmony" are living in a total fantasy. This region is like a pressure cooker that must some day explode. If you believe in evolution, then this is easily explainable. The strongest and fastest growing species is the one most likely to survive, because it will get the most food and resources. If there's no food left for the weaker species, then that species will quietly become extinct. That's because animals are not intelligent. Humans are intelligent, so they don't quietly become extinct. They conduct riots, demonstrations, and terrorist attacks, and eventually wars of extermination. So the strongest and fastest growing tribes, societies or nations will win the wars, and get all the food If you believe in creationism, then the explanation is different, but also easily explainable. God has created a world in which the population grows faster than the food supply, so wars of extermination must occur. If wars of extermination must occur, because of God's creation, then it's God's fault that wars of extermination occur. It hardly makes sense to blame humans for wars of extermination if God has created a world in which wars of extermination are required. So the strongest and fastest growing tribes, societies or nations will win the wars, and get all the food. So was the Battle of Verdun an example of futility? No, absolutely not. The Battle of Verdun killed off 800,000 people, and the food for those 800,000 people became available to other people. With those 800,000 people dead, they didn't need food, didn't need water, didn't need land, didn't need energy, and so forth. Those resources became available to other people. So the Battle of Verdun did exactly what it had to do, and except for those who experienced personal loss, it improved the lives of millions of other people. And that, Dear Reader, is the way the world works. The world is bulging with people. Food is becoming more expensive, and refugees are pouring out of Asia, the Mideast and Africa. These are typical characteristics of a generational Crisis era. Here are five events:
Sooner or later, one of these events (or something like them) will occur, and in this generational Crisis era, that will trigger all the others, and the Clash of Civilizations world war. KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Civil War, Decoration Day, Memorial Day, Ulysses Grant, John Logan, Grand Army of the Republic, World War I, Battle of Verdun, Germany, Angela Merkel, France, François Hollande, Verdun, Douaumont Ossuary, Helmut Kohl, François Mitterrand, red poppies, Flanders Fields, John McCrae Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 05-30-2016 War solves problems such as unsuitable borders. Hitler complained often about the small piece of Polish terrain separating East Prussia from Pomerania and about the German minority in the Sudetenland being oppressed. After World War II, the Allies solved the problem of the Polish Corridor by taking East Prussia and almost the whole of Pomerania (and a slice of Brandenburg and almost all of Silesia) from Germany. The Allies signed off on the expulsion of Germans from the Sudetenland. World War I at the least brought some countries into existence for anywhere from a year to twenty years... and all of those are now in existence. Except that Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia have split, what had been part of Romania is no longer part of Romania, Germany has been truncated at the Oder-Neisse line, a few swatches of Finland have been returned to Russia (through the Soviet Union) ,Poland has a squarish shape, the Russian Federated Soviet Socialist Republic has become the Russian Federation, the map of Europe now looks much like that of 1920 -- and not 1935 or 1950. World War II brought forth the ugliest manifestations of racism to have ever have existed, racism that made Jim Crow and even Apartheid look humane by contrast. It also discredited racism, making possible the struggles against Jim Crow and Apartheid. The war in the Pacific Basin was mostly over colonial empires; after WWII few countries were able to fight to hold 'their' colonies. Fascism (including Nazism and Ku Kluxism), which once touted itself as the Wave of the Future, has become a sick joke attracting mostly sociopaths with delusions of grandeur. RE: 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran - radind - 05-30-2016 (05-27-2016, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and HezbollahI have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-30-2016 JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never vote for her in any circumstances; How would Hillary become president? Similarly if the leaders Xers and Millies are backing have promised the dismantling of the Clinton policies and the Obama policies: How would the Clinton and Obama policies get implemented if they (the policies) are reversed as soon as the next president gets in there? P.S #NeverHillary RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-30-2016 (05-30-2016, 04:32 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never This is not exactly my area of expertise, but I understand that Democrats are hoping that Hillary will win because of overwhelming support from women and Latinos. Trump supporters respond that he'll win because he has more support from men and whites. 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth ctl - John J. Xenakis - 05-30-2016 *** 31-May-16 World View -- Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thousands of refugees leave Libya for Italy, hundreds drown **** Boat carrying hundreds of migrants capsized on Thursday as an Italian Navy rescue ship approached (Getty) Human rights are describing as "catastrophic" the situation that 700-900 migrants drowned in the last week, attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from Libya to Italy. However, some 13,000 to 14,000 were rescued in the last week. These numbers are similar to those from 2015. The numbers are expected to increase over the summer, as there are some 800,000 migrants in Libya waiting to cross. Almost all the migrants are coming from black African countries, including Nigeria, Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan. Earlier predictions that there would be a flood of refugees from Syria, since the Aegean Sea route has been closed by the EU-Turkey refugee deal, have not been realized so far. The Libya route is many times more dangerous than the Aegean Sea route, and it's possible that many Syrian refugees are waiting to see if the EU-Turkey deal will fall apart, which could very well happen soon. The Local (Italy) and Eagle Online (Nigeria) and Express (London) **** **** Turkey's president Erdogan tells Muslims not to use birth control **** Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again expressed his support for procreation, saying that no Muslim family should ever consider birth control or population planning. [indent]<QUOTE>"We will multiply our descendants. They talk about population planning, birth control. No Muslim family can have such an approach. Nobody can interfere in God's work. The first duty here belongs to mothers. ... I am saying this clearly, we will increase our posterity and reproduce generations. As for population planning or birth control, no Muslim family can engage in such a mentality. We will follow the road that my God and dear Prophet [Muhammad] say."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Erdogan has previously been quoted as saying: "One or two children mean bankruptcy. Three children mean we are not improving but not receding either. At least three children are necessary in each family, because our population is at risk of aging." He has previously equated birth control with treason. Erdogan's remarks were heavily criticized by women's groups for telling women how many children to have and dismissing the Western idea of gender equality. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Gulf Times (Doha) **** **** Population growth rate of Muslims and Christians **** Ever since I learned, years ago, that Muslims had the greatest birth rate of all religions, then I've been trying to find out why. According to Pew Research, this trend will continue for decades into the future. According to Pew, from 2010-2050 population size is expected to increase 73% for Muslims, 35% for Christians, 34% for Hindus, and 16% for Jews, with the overall growth rate of 35%. However, those figures assume that there won't be a new world war. As we described yesterday, the world is already bulging with people, food is becoming more expensive, and refugees are pouring out of Asia, the Mideast and Africa. This becomes more unstable every day, as does global finance, with huge interlocking debts in a giant credit bubble. However, Muslims have been the fastest growing religion since the end of World War II. Furthermore, when I researched this in the past, I noticed that this applied to Sunni Muslim countries to but not to Iran, a Shia Muslim country. So I reached the obvious conclusion that this phenomenon applies not to Muslims in general, but only to Sunni Muslims. My theory has always been that after the devastating destruction of Turkey's Ottoman Empire, which had ruled the Muslim world since the 1400s, Sunni Muslims developed either explicit or implicit communal sense that the way to get the Ottoman Empire back was to have as many children as possible. I've asked any number of Muslims and Muslim scholars whether this theory makes sense, whether there was some kind of fatwa issued by some cleric in the 1920s or 1930s, telling Muslims to have as many children as possible to recover from the destruction of the Ottoman Empire. No one I spoke to supported this theory, and many explicitly denied it, although were also surprised to learn the statistics that Sunni Muslim populations have been the fastest growing populations, something of which they had been unaware. There is no prohibition against contraception in Islam. Abortion and hysterectomies are prohibited, but ordinary contraceptive methods are acceptable, including the IUD and the pill. In fact, the Catholic religion is far more restrictive about contraception than Islam is. So Erdogan's claims about birth control appear to be exaggerated. But here we have Turkey's super-authoritarian president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who gives every sign of wanting to reconstitute the old Ottoman Empire, saying that women should avoid contraception, have as many children as possible, "multiply our descendants." So I'm sticking to my theory. The reason for the high birth rate among Sunni Muslims after World War II is because of of an explicit or implicit communal sense that the way to get the Ottoman Empire back was to have as many children as possible. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Erdogan's exhortation is just one more crazy idea, of which there are many, from just one more crazy politician, of which there are many. The Mideast is headed for a massive sectarian war, and Turkey will be at war with Iran, Russia and several Western countries, at the very least. As I wrote yesterday, those wonderful children will all be cannon fodder, and archeologists of the future will enjoy digging up their bones from mass graves. Pew Research and Islamic Edicts on Family Planning KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Mediterranean Sea, Italy, Aegean Sea, Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ottoman Empire, Iran, Russia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-30-2016 (05-30-2016, 03:41 PM)radind Wrote:An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at the moment we are seemingly on the brink of war. Let's say if Trump gets elected an negotiates a spheres of influence agreement that gives Russia de-facto control over Ukraine and orthodox eastern Europe and military support against China. Such a pact is quite doable. But this is not what JohnX is predicting. JohnX seems to predict that Russia and India would just get a liberal "velvet revolutions" and then sometime later gets attacked by China (which also attacks the US at the same time) and that Liberal college students students take complete power and turn Iran into a clone of Iraqi Kurdistan. After which all the countries would have stereotypical liberal democracies and would be allied with the US (which would be ruled by the same establishment that runs thing here right now, he assumes Hillary will be elected) to fight and defeat china, after which every country in the world would be a democracy and be directed by boomers into creating a world government. In regards to his Iran prediction John reveals his complete hypocrisy. He wants Iranian 20 and 30 somethings to have control over Iran's government, Military, Economy And foreign policy; but he does not want American 20 and thirty somethings to have any control whatsoever over the US Government, Military, Economy and Foreign policy. In fact he seems to prefer that the boomers ( and he means the current boomer elite, not "anti-mainstream" boomers like trump) to have complete power throughout the entire crisis and into the early 1T and then the boomer elites cede power directly to the cohorts that are currently in high school, middle school and college right now. Thus skipping over generation X and the first 2/3rds of the millennials altogether. This is simply so the boomers could build their world government utopia enshrined by "human-rights" in the aftermath of what he predicts a 4T WW3 in which hopes all western countries would be led by boomers and by conducted like a scaled-up version of the GWOT (fought with nukes and armies of millions instead of drone high-explosives and armies of thousands) in which our war aim is democratizing the entire planet.(05-27-2016, 09:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and HezbollahI have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-30-2016 (05-30-2016, 07:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(05-30-2016, 04:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > JohnX if Both Xers and Millennials hate Hillary and would never Citizen Latinos and White Women (and young women of all races in general) generally like Trump. RE: 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran - John J. Xenakis - 05-30-2016 (05-30-2016, 07:45 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at This is total gibberish. RE: 28-May-16 World View -- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran - pbrower2a - 05-31-2016 (05-30-2016, 07:45 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(05-30-2016, 03:41 PM)radind Wrote: I have considered Iran to be a threat for several decades. I don't see how we could ally with Iran without a fundamental change in the leaders of Iran. It would be good to have Iran, India and Russia as real allies, but so far this does not look feasible.An Alliance with Russia is actually quite doable even though at the moment we are seemingly on the brink of war. Let's say if Trump gets elected an negotiates a spheres of influence agreement that gives Russia de-facto control over Ukraine and orthodox eastern Europe and military support against China. Such a pact is quite doable. But this is not what JohnX is predicting. JohnX seems to predict that Russia and India would just get a liberal "velvet revolutions" and then sometime later gets attacked by China (which also attacks the US at the same time) and that Liberal college students students take complete power and turn Iran into a clone of Iraqi Kurdistan. After which all the countries would have stereotypical liberal democracies and would be allied with the US (which would be ruled by the same establishment that runs thing here right now, he assumes Hillary will be elected) to fight and defeat china, after which every country in the world would be a democracy and be directed by boomers into creating a world government. In regards to his Iran prediction John reveals his complete hypocrisy. He wants Iranian 20 and 30 somethings to have control over Iran's government, Military, Economy And foreign policy; but he does not want American 20 and thirty somethings to have any control whatsoever over the US Government, Military, Economy and Foreign policy. In fact he seems to prefer that the boomers ( and he means the current boomer elite, not "anti-mainstream" boomers like trump) to have complete power throughout the entire crisis and into the early 1T and then the boomer elites cede power directly to the cohorts that are currently in high school, middle school and college right now. Thus skipping over generation X and the first 2/3rds of the millennials altogether. This is simply so the boomers could build their world government utopia enshrined by "human-rights" in the aftermath of what he predicts a 4T WW3 in which hopes all western countries would be led by boomers and by conducted like a scaled-up version of the GWOT (fought with nukes and armies of millions instead of drone high-explosives and armies of thousands) in which our war aim is democratizing the entire planet. 1. Balderdash! Donald Trump must be elected. Erratic as he is, he will make Hillary Clinton look like a steady hand. Steady hands, or the perception of such, win against alternatives in America and I see no cause to expect otherwise this year. A Third Term in all but personality and name can be elected. Hillary Clinton has even more preparation for the Presidency than did Barack Obama in 2008. People are coming to realize what a good President we now have. Clinton 2016 is at least George H W Bush 1988. 2. Sphere of influence? Who would want to be in the sphere of interest of any power being led despotically. I see Donald Trump no less authoritarian than Vladimir Putin. NATO would break up, with most NATO members choosing their own alliance. The difference between governments of the Netherlands and Bulgaria would be on whether Putin or Trump poses the bigger security threat to independence. Decisions to establish spheres of influence imply the loss of independence of countries to be absorbed into such spheres of influence. 3. India is already a democracy. Russia has had some experience with democracy and could have it again. China, in contrast, has practically no experience with democracy; overtures of democracy in China since 1911 have typically been traps set up by the dictatorial leadership to seek out dissidents to be crushed brutally. 4. The Kurdish quasi-state at the least wages war like a democracy. It accepts ethnic and religious difference while honoring the values of the majority. They have been closing in on the Infernal State. But the Kurds are not Arabs, and they are not Iranians. 5. China is not going to be defeated in war. If Japan could not defeat China decisively from 1937 to 1941 despite being on par with the United States in the Pacific Rim, do you think that America, Russia, or Indian can? China is even more powerful now than it was in the mid-20th century. It can do what America did in the early 1940s -- turning a machine of production of consumer goods into the production of military goods. 6. Boomer power as if the Boom generation is a monolithic behemoth in support of its economic elites is a myth. Read the generational books, and you will find that the last set of Idealist leadership establishes the legacy of that generation. The last set of Boomer leadership will not be people who believe that Humanity exists solely to enrich and pamper elites irrespective of the hopes and desires of the rest of Humanity. Imagine Boomers not as selfish, ruthless, and arrogant as the current elite who have more of a focus on culture, principle, and workable beliefs. Those Boomers can have an appeal to X pragmatism and Millennial reason. 7. People in their 30s are typically on the brink of achieving influence in public life, especially as older adults die, retire, or get discredited. There will be plenty of openings for Millennial adults in politics as the Silent and early-wave Boomers die off. Rational as they are, Millennial adults are going to challenge the Tea Party types whose rationality and pragmatism are suspect. But don't forget that the best of a Reactive generation in public office might well be those associated with minorities making advances in economic life. Asian-Americans seem to be following the Jewish pattern of economic and intellectual success. Hispanics are doing far better than some white groups (especially those in the Mountain South) in educational and economic achievement -- completing their education and starting businesses. Middle-class blacks are legitimate peers of middle-class whites in everything but social organization -- and in that difference, middle-class blacks are far -better organized than the white middle class and are more effective at appealing to poor blacks than middle-class whties are in appealing to poor whites. Just consider this: the first non-white President is a black man of Generation X. 8. How stable is the Iranian theocracy? It is corrupt and politically isolated. People are finding ways to evade its power. Even the burka, long figured a tool of suppression of women, has become a canvas of expression. There are designer burkas. People are finding ways to dissent without naming quite the current leadership. The Iranians aren't stupid. They know enough that they can replace "The Shah", "The Great Satan", or "The Zionist Entity" with their current tyranny and make sense of their own reality. 9. The worst Boomers are likely approaching the end of the road in power. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-31-2016 (05-31-2016, 10:42 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Usually I am somewhere between sympathetic to neutral regarding refugees. But really .... "hey here comes a ship, lets all run to that side of the boat!" Xers and Millies WILL NOT fight for boomer values. They are not going to allow boomers to forcibly domesticate humanity. I Saw an interesting series of posts in while skimming through comments in response to an article on the recent Austrian elections. Here are the posts: the third poster in my opinion sums up the attitude of Xers and Millies toward boomer globalism. haribol 24 May 2016 6:12 1415 Trump in America. Putin in Russia. The far-right in ascendency in Europe. Nationalistic zealots in China. Globally this points to one thing. A massive war (trade or literal). Report
1-Jun-16 World View -- 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah - John J. Xenakis - 05-31-2016 *** 1-Jun-16 World View -- 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah from ISIS This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Death of Afghan Taliban leader exposes Iran-Taliban links **** Wreckage of vehicle in which Mansour was traveling when hit by US drone strike (Anadolu) As we reported earlier this month, Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour was killed by a US drone strike as he was traveling by car in Pakistan's Balochistan province, not far from the border with Iran. It now turns out that Mansour's car was returning from a trip to Iran. Iran's foreign ministry has said, "The concerned authorities in Iran reject that such a person had entered Pakistan via Iran’s border at the stated date," but Western reporters arriving at the site of the drone strike have seen Mansour's Pakistani passport, with entry and exit stamps showing that he had traveled into Iran and back again that day. It's not known where or why Mansour went inside Iran. It's not known whether he had some secret relationship with Iran's government, or whether he was just visiting Taliban cells within Iran, without Iran's knowledge. However, this discovery has generated some examination of Iran's relationship with the Taliban. Iran is a hardline Shia state, and the Taliban is a hardline Sunni organization, so their relationship could never be more than a "marriage of convenience" that could be dissolved by either side at any time. Iran had staunchly opposed the Taliban in the 1990s and had almost gone to war with it after Taliban forces massacred Iranian diplomats and local Shia Muslims in the Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif in 1998. Since 9/11, there has been some cooperation between Iran and the Taliban over the US presence in Afghanistan. Since 2014, when the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) began to infiltrate Afghanistan, Iran and the Taliban have shared a common interest in wanting to repel ISIS. There are still plenty of unanswered questions about the drone strike that killed Mansour. Mansour's whereabouts were a closely guarded secret, and yet US intelligence officials were apparently absolutely certain, at the time of the drone strike, that they knew what car he was traveling in. How did they know? James Cunningham, a former US ambassador to Afghanistan says: [indent]<QUOTE>"Pick your conspiracy theory. How did his passport survive? Did [ISIS] shop him to the US? Did the Iranians tip us off? We likely will never know. But the Taliban must be wondering, too. What needs to be debunked is the Pakistani line that Afghanistan is the fault of the United States and the international community, and that the killing [of Mansour] blocks the [Afghan-Taliban] peace process. "There is no peace process; Mansour made clear there was no intent to negotiate."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Guardian (London) and VOA and Al Monitor **** **** 50,000 civilians in danger as Iraq tries to liberate Fallujah from ISIS **** American Marines endured some of the bloodiest fighting of the Iraq War in Fallujah in 2003-2004, fighting against Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). After the "surge" in 2007, AQI was expelled from Iraq, including Fallujah, but the withdrawal of all American forces in 2011 created a vacuum that was filled by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ISIS captured large swaths of Iraqi territory, including Fallujah in 2014, and now there's a new battle of Fallujah, fought mainly by ISIS against Iraqi army forces, the latter backed by US airstrikes. Baghdad has been hit by a seemingly unending stream of terrorist attacks and bombings that have killed hundreds of civilians in recent months. Fallujah if 40 miles west of Baghdad, and ISIS has been using it as a base to launch these attacks. The Iraq government sees the recapture of Fallujah as keep to stopping these attacks and stopping ISIS itself. For more than a week, Iraqi forces have been surrounding Fallujah and preparing for troops to enter the city, and now the battle was finally launched on Tuesday. The ISIS forces have no way to escape, and so the fighting is fierce. It's feared that a massive humanitarian disaster is in the making. The problem is that there are also 50,000 civilians in the city, and many have no way to escape either, though they've been advised to flee. ISIS forces have booby trapped many of the roads and buildings and they're using civilians as "human shields," hoping to slow down the Iraqi forces. Iraq is increasingly facing a huge internal refugee problem, with hundreds of thousands of Iraqis forced to flee their homes in one battle after another. If the Iraq army ever attempts to liberate Mosul from ISIS, that will put its 600,000 civilians at risk. There is a related issue that's growing in complexity. Since the invasion by ISIS, many of the internally displaced Iraqi civilians have fled to the relative safety and security of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). The KRI is supposed to hold a reference on independence later this year, something that the Iraq government opposes, and it's possible that the Iraq government is not unhappy that a huge influx of Iraqi Arab refugees will complicate the referendum. Rudaw (Iraq/Kurds) and USA Today and VOA and Chatham House (London) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, Pakistan, Balochistan, Iran, James Cunningham, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Iraq, Fallujah, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Kurdistan Region of Iraq, KRI Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Jun-16 World View -- New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence - John J. Xenakis - 06-01-2016 *** 2-Jun-16 World View -- New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China **** From 2005: Taiwan poll results to question: 'Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?' (WSJ) A new poll in Taiwan shows that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese people reject eventual unification with China. This comes a week after Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), took office as president of Taiwan, having won an overwhelming and decisive electoral victory in January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election" ) According to the new poll, 66.4% oppose unification and only 18.5% are in favor, while 15.1% remain noncommittal. The poll found that people in younger generations were more likely to favor Taiwan independence. In the 20-29 age group, 72% supported independence. This is consistent with a trend I've reported on in the past. The graph at the beginning of this article comes from 2005, and it shows that the portion of Taiwan's population describing themselves as "Taiwanese," as opposed to "Chinese," had risen from 18% to 42% over the previous ten years. If we assume that being "Taiwanese" corresponds to favoring Taiwan independence, then that amount has risen from 42% to 66.4% in the 11 years since then. This almost certainly means that the trend is highly generational. Older generations, especially those with some memory of the 1949 flight from Mao Zedong's army to Hong Kong and then to Formosa, have clung to the hope that one day Taiwan and Beijing would reunite into a single China governed by Taiwan's Nationalist government. People in younger generations understand that this scenario is even remotely possible, and that reunification would mean being governed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing, the same CCP that massacred thousands of college students in Tiananmen Square in 1989, and who have become increasingly authoritarian in Hong Kong, breaking their explicit public promise, when Britain returned Hong Kong to China in 1997, that they could have fully free and fair elections. If I could figure all this out, then it's certain that the officials in the CCP have also figured it out. Just last week, just after Tsai Ing-wen took office as president, Chinese media demanded that Tsai explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China, something that Tsai is refusing to do. In 2005, during the time when Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was last in power, Beijing enacted an Anti-Secession law that required Beijing to invade Taiwan militarily if Taiwan took any steps to move towards independence, or even encourage independence in political speech. China is becoming increasingly nationalistic, and increasingly less willing to tolerate Taiwan's independent streak. The new poll shows that time is not on Beijing's side, and at some point, possibly soon, the military invasion of Taiwan will take place. Taipei Times **** **** China close to imposing an air defense ID zone (ADIZ) in South China Sea **** The Hong Kong based South China Morning Post is quoting China's military sources as saying that China is close to announcing an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in South China Sea, "pending US moves." An official is quoted as saying: [indent]<QUOTE>"If the US military keeps making provocative moves to challenge China’s sovereignty in the region, it will give Beijing a good opportunity to declare an ADIZ in the South China Sea."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The "provocative moves" are an allusion to the US Navy's completely non-threatening freedom of navigation patrols, in which US patrol vessels simply sail through the South China Sea. China has announced that it is annexing the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries, much as Adolf Hitler annexed portions of eastern Europe in 1939, and is demanding that any American patrol vessel request permission from China before entering the South China Sea. However, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter has repeatedly said that "The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world." The announcement of an ADIZ would substantially escalate the tensions in the region. China has already been aggressively militarizing the South China Sea in preparation for the ADIZ. This includes creation of seven artificial islands and turning them into military naval and air force bases. Just as China is preparing for war with Taiwan, China is also preparing for war in the South China Sea. The increasingly nationalistic Chinese people will not wait much longer before demanding that their leaders attack. South China Morning Post and India Times and The Diplomat KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Anti-Secession Law, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Air Defense Identification Zone, ADIZ Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenia - John J. Xenakis - 06-02-2016 *** 3-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenian genocide This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey recalls German ambassador after vote recognizes Armenian genocide **** Armenian settlements in eastern Turkey in 1915 (AFP) In a move considered highly controversial because of its timing, Germany's parliament voted on Thursday to recognize the deaths of Armenians in 1915 during World War I at the hands of Turkey's Ottoman Empire as an act of "genocide." However, the vote was purely symbolic, as there are no legal consequences associated with the vote. For Germans, one possible motivation for the vote is that Germany and the Ottomans were allies in World War I, and Germany may share some of the guilt for the deaths of the Armenians. The resolution emphasizes that Germany is aware of the "uniqueness" of the Nazi Holocaust and it "regrets the inglorious role" of Germany, the Ottoman Turks' main military ally at the time of the Armenians' killings, of failing to stop the "crime against humanity." Armenia's foreign minister to Germany Edward Nalbandian praised the decision: [indent]<QUOTE>"Germany's valuable contribution not only to the international recognition and condemnation of the Armenian Genocide, but also to the universal fight for the prevention of genocides, crimes against humanity."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The vote was overwhelming, with only one MP voting against, and only one abstention. Bettina Kula, who voted against the resolution, did not dispute the claim of genocide, but said that "It’s not the duty of the Federal Parliament to evaluate historical events that took place in other countries." Members of Turkey's government were furious at the vote, and declared it "null and void." Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on a visit to Kenya, where he condemned the vote and announced that he was recalling Turkey's ambassador to Germany "for consultation." This was considered a mild action, one that's easily reversed. Last year, Turkey temporarily recalled its ambassadors to Austria and the Vatican after Austria and Pope Francis described the killings as genocide. According to the Turkey's deputy prime minister Numan Kurtulmus: [indent]<QUOTE>"The fact that the German Parliament approved distorted and baseless claims as genocide is a historic mistake. The German Parliament’s approval of this bill is not a decision in line with friendly relations between Turkey and Germany. This decision is null and void for Turkey. This is an issue that scientists and historians need to reach a conclusion on, not politicians or parliaments. As Turkey, we will surely give the necessary response to this decision in all platforms."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Most analysts outside of Turkey consider the evidence of genocide overwhelming. Armenia says that as many as 1.5 million people were killed by Turkish forces in World War I between 1915 and 1917, and says that the mass killings were genocidal. According to Turkey, something like 500,000 Armenians and 500,000 Turks were killed in the massive civil war that occurred when the Armenians rose up against the Ottoman rulers, and so it wasn't a genocide. However, in February 1919, a court-martial found a number of top Ottoman officials guilty of war crimes, including against Armenians, and sentenced them to death. Deutsche Welle (Berlin) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and AFP **** **** Germany's genocide vote seems timed to coincide with EU-Turkey refugee deal **** The Armenian genocide question is a century-old issue, so it seems surprising that the German parliament is raising the issue at exactly this time, at the height of the negotiations over the EU-Turkey refugee deal. The European Union desperately needs the deal to continue. Last year, there were thousands of Syrian refugees crossing the Aegean Sea every day to Greece's islands, creating an existential crisis for the EU. Thanks to the deal, Turkey has reduced that flow from thousands per day to dozens per day. This has permitted the EU to go its merry way without being threatened with the tsunami of refugees. However, the EU has obligations under that treaty. The EU is obligated to pay Turkey 3 billion euros in aid for refugees, followed possibly by 3 billion more. None of that money has been paid, and is way overdue. Possible most critical is the commitment to visa liberalization: Any of Turkey's 74 million citizens must be able to travel freely throughout Europe's Schengen zone without a visa. The deadline for this change is the end of June, and there are many forces in Europe that are bitterly opposed to visa liberalization for Turks. However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said repeatedly that if visa liberalization isn't granted, then he'll cancel the deal and allow the full flow of Syrian refugees to Europe to resume. It's quite possible that there are hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey just waiting for the deal to be canceled, and preparing to travel as soon as it is. So this vote on century-old Armenian genocide issue arguably is coming at the worst possible time, at the height of tensions over the EU-Turkey deal. The suspicion is that the issue was brought to a vote at this time by people who would like to sabotage the visa liberalization. A German official in the government of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said hopefully, "Despite some of his rhetoric, we believe Erdogan has a strong interest in making the migrants deal work and will not allow this to get in the way." Over a thousand Turks demonstrated against the resolution on Saturday in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin and some German lawmakers say they have been bombarded with hate mail and insults on social media for supporting the resolution. Reuters and LA Times KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Turkey, Armenian genocide question, Ottoman Empire, World War I, Edward Nalbandian, Bettina Kula, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Numan Kurtulmus, Angela Merkel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 06-03-2016 Hillary will NEVER be president. Most Xers and Millies regard her values to be the values of weaklings and street-urchins. Also Both The Russians and the Chinese seem to believe that large-scale improvements in relations with the US are possible in the event of a Trump Presidency. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMZqS7q7voY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0ygRzpGa8U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGmkPmas4hU Also regarding the Clintons: Yes we had a strong economy during Bill's administration but everything else deteriorated, we had open borders, The foreign and Military policies were oriented to nonsensical "human rights" ideological obsessions, we attacked Milosevic even though he was doing the christian world a service. The patheticness of the Kosovo campaign was legendary we were just lobbing cruise missiles and air strikes rather than committing ground armies. We Made both Russia and China into enemies by the end of his presidency. Millennials hate Clintonism even more than they hate Bushism. At least Bush committed ground forces in a real campaign into Afghanistan and Iraq, although Bush failed to properly exploit Iraq so it could be used as a springboard to carry out the invasion of Iran, Bush having been deluded by the idea that he could make democrats out of the Iraqis and appointing the incompetent Paul Bremer to oversee it. Earlier Bush 1 successfully wrapped up the first gulf war in 1991. Regarding XYMOX's Post: The Strong Have a natural right to dominate over those who are weaker than them. The turks took a natural response to a weaker nation within their borders having sided with the enemy in a time of war. |