Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - Warren Dew - 01-27-2017 (01-27-2017, 05:37 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:(01-27-2017, 05:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(01-27-2017, 10:19 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: > I still question if that issue is going to be salient within the I'm pretty sure it's to secure energy resources. I still don't understand what John thinks that implies about their strategic plan, though. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-27-2017 (01-27-2017, 05:33 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What's your theory about their overall strategic plan? I don't believe that the South had a strategic plan in mind when they attacked Fort Sumter. I don't believe that Japan had (much of) a strategic plan in mind when they attacked Pearl Harbor. Israel certainly had no strategic plan in mind when they attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. I keep saying this -- generational crisis wars are not rational, any more than sex is rational. Like erotic urges, nationalistic urges take over the mind and take control of it, so that there is just blind emotion driving a person or a population to a climax and disaster. Maybe it would be more rational for China to attack Mongolia, but that wouldn't satisfy the nationalistic urges permeating China today. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-27-2017 And these nationalistic urges must inevitably be directed in Russia's direction because, why? RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-27-2017 (01-27-2017, 08:10 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > And these nationalistic urges must inevitably be directed in They're also directed at America. And at India. And at Japan. You keep looking for a rational explanation when none exists. Why are sexual urges directed at some particular woman? It's not rational. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-27-2017 Quote:They're also directed at America. And at India. And at Japan. We've seen ample evidence for nationalist animosities directed towards Japan, the Chinese have been stoking the coals on that one for years. America? To a point, in the sense that we are standing in the way of them and their "rightful place in the sun", as it were. India? That's seems less nationalist and more strategic, vis securing their supply line through Pakistan to Gwadar, or fears of encirclement. Where is the evidence for Russia-China tensions within the past few years? The US and Japan prior to WWII? The US had been denouncing them for years, and slapped an oil embargo on them to boot. The South and the North prior to the Civil War? Bleeding Kandas, the Caning of Charles Sumner, John Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry, there's no need to go on. Israel and Hezbollah? Again, long standing, and it's a conflict that isn't finished. Wars don't just break out from clear skies. And please don't tell me the most recent thing you've got are the Sino-Soviet split back in the 60s. They actually addressed all of the outstanding border disputes in 2004, starting in the '90s. Putin and Xi Jinping are reportedly quite friendly. I'm not trying to be difficult, where are you seeing this tension building now? RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-27-2017 Oh, and that Jessi Colter was real cute back in her prime. Waylon Jennings was a lucky man. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - Ragnarök_62 - 01-27-2017 (01-27-2017, 08:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: OMG, John. That is one of the worst songs ever! Why did you ever remind me of that hideous droning warbling. <<<<cringe>>>>> 28-Jan-17 World View -- Furious Turkey threatens migrant deal over Greece's failure - John J. Xenakis - 01-27-2017 *** 28-Jan-17 World View -- Furious Turkey threatens migrant deal over Greece's failure to extradite This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Furious Turkey threatens migrant deal over Greece's failure to extradite **** Turkish soldiers after landing in Greece on July 17 of last year (Reuters) Greece's Supreme Court on Thursday blocked the extradition of eight Turkish military officers sought by Ankara over the failed coup of July 15 of last year. On July 16, the day after the coup attempt, a Turkish military helicopter landed unexpectedly in the Greek town of Alexandroupoli, close to the Turkish border. Eight Turkish soldiers emerged from the helicopter, asking for political asylum. Turkey said that the eight soldiers were traitors, and demanded their extradition. It's been six months since then, and the asylum request is still pending. However, on Friday, Greece's Supreme Court ruled against extraditing them back to Turkey. The court said that there was on evidence that they were involved in the coup attempt, and that they were unlikely to get a fair trial in Turkey. The soldiers claim that they would be killed if they returned to Turkey. Turkey, on the other hand, claims that they provided documents and other evidence that proves that the eight soldiers were involved, and that Greece's refusal to extradite is a violation of international law. Turkish officials are furious: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We will carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the > impact of this decision - which we believe has been taken with a > political motive - on our bilateral ties, co-operation in the > fight against terrorism and on other bilateral and regional > issues. ... > > There is a migration deal we signed, including a readmission deal > with Greece, and we are evaluating what we can do, including the > cancellation of the readmission deal with Greece."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The readmission deal is one part of the EU-Turkey migrant deal signed last year. Turkey agreed with the EU to take back all migrants and refugees who cross to Greece illegally. In return, Turkey would receive financial aid, visa-free travel for all Turkish citizens in Europe, and an acceleration of negotiations for Turkey to join the EU. Turkey and Greece also have an agreement on the readmission to Turkey of illegal migrants. The EU-Turkey deal has been extremely successful, in that it's reduced the flow of migrants from Syria and Iraq into the EU from a torrent into a trickle. The EU so far has refused to grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens, or to accelerate negotiations for Turkey to join the EU. Turkey has sometimes threated the "nuclear option" of cancelling the entire deal. However, on this occasion, the threat appears to be far less substantial -- just canceling the portion of the deal that permits Greece to send refugees back to Turkey for readmission. The EU is trying to play a balancing act with Turkey. The EU desperately needs the migrant deal, since another influx of hundreds of thousands of migrants would threaten the cohesion of the EU itself. On the other hand, Turkish authorities have fired or jailed hundreds of thousands of people since July, accusing them of supporting the coup, while not supplying any evidence. These arrests have particularly targeted journalists, teachers and police officers. These massive firings and jailings have caused astonishment among EU officials, raising human rights concerns to the point where visa-free travel and EU membership are strongly rejected by many EU officials. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Greek Reporter and BBC (19-Jul-2016) Related Articles
**** **** Desperate EU officials still try to shut down Mediterranean migration route **** Even if the EU-Turkey migrant deal remains intact, there could still be hundreds of thousands of migrants traveling from Libya to Italy by crossing the Mediterranean. The technique used by human smugglers is to pack 40 migrants in a rubber dinghy that's supposed to hold no more than 10 people, and send them out to sea off the coast of Libya. They're told to call the Italian coast guard once they're in international waters and ask to be saved. Because of the instability in Libya, it's clear that there's no hope of an EU-Libya deal as effective as the EU-Turkey deal. Instead, EU officials are moving ahead with a plan to establish refugee camps in Africa. When migrants are picked up from dinghies in the Mediterranean, they'll be taken to these African refugee camps rather than to Europe. According to Germany's Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, "The people taken up by the smugglers need to be saved and brought to a safe place. But then from this safe place outside Europe, we would bring into Europe only those who require protection." RFE/RL and Russia Today and Reuters Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Greece, Alexandroupoli, Libya, Italy, Mediterranean Sea, Thomas de Maiziere Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2017 Quote:> They're also directed at America. And (01-27-2017, 08:49 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > We've seen ample evidence for nationalist animosities directed I agree with your analysis here. There's a point that I've made in the past but not recently that really America is really one of the least hated countries in the world. If you listen to the news media and you hear almost every politician blame America for almost everything, and particularly now when the international media have gone hysterically ballistic over Trump, you would think that in fact America is the most hated nation in the world. But that hatred is all fatuous political nonsense. I remember thinking this years ago when there was widespread anti-American rioting in Pakistan over the Afghan war and drone strikes in FATA. It was clear that these anti-American rioters did not wish any harm to America -- they simply wanted America to leave. That kind of anti-Americanism is very different from hating America. So I agree with you that Xi Jinping is not going to get out of bed one morning and say, "Gee, I think I'll push the Red Button today to launch missiles and destroy 50 American cities. That'll be fun." But that's not how it's going to go. The fact is that China has developed all these missile systems capable of attacking American cities, military bases and aircraft carriers. Those aren't just going to sit there forever. They're going to get used. So the only issue is the scenario. So here's a perfectly plausible scenario: A border war between India and Pakistan begins to escalate. China comes in on Pakistan's side, and Russia comes in on India's side. At first it's only for support -- supplying weapons and logistics, for example -- but sooner or later Russian and Chinese forces start shooting at each other. Pakistan's blood brothers in Saudi Arabia come to their aid, while Iran starts helping out with India. The US stays out of it as long as it can, and calls for peace, but is really on India's side. China wants to send warships to the India Ocean to support Pakistan, but they're blocked by American warships. China decides that it has to "solve the America problem once and for all," and launches its battery of nuclear missiles to clear out the warships blocking China's ships, and on American cities as well. By that time, the US is shooting back, and everyone is starting to use nuclear weapons. That's just one scenario. You could imagine another scenario where the Syrian war expands to a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, pulling in Pakistan and India, etc. Or maybe it'll be Turkey vs Greece. Or maybe it'll be Israel vs the Arabs. It could even start with an escalating border dispute between Colombia and Venezuela. The thing that distinguishes generational Crisis eras from other eras is that in other eras the public mood is against war, because the survivors of the last Crisis war are still around, while in a Crisis era the public mood becomes highly nationalistic and favors wars. That's why small wars in Unraveling eras don't escalate, while small wars in Crisis eras lead to the tit-for-tat setting of escalating red lines leads to a Regeneracy and a full-scale generational crisis war -- in this case a world war. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2017 (01-27-2017, 08:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (01-27-2017, 09:09 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > OMG, John. That is one of the worst songs ever! Why did you ever I love that song. The following article gives one possible reason why people have different tastes in music: ** Generational Dynamics and prolactin ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e150214.htm#e150214 RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-28-2017 God Damn You, B&N WiFi! You cut out exactly while I was posting my response! *sigh* And again... Quote:I agree with your analysis here. There's a point that I've made in To be sure. I have traveled a fair bit, even to China, and I have seen plenty of the one sort of anti-Americanism to which you refer, and very little of the other. The British enjoyed a similar prestige during their imperial heyday, and yet their moment ended eventually, even as ours will, be it in this crisis or another. The allusion to their "place in the sun" was in reference to a previous iteration of this attitude, though in reference to the "British Question" rather than the American one. Quote:So I agree with you that Xi Jinping is not going to get out of bed one We are in agreement thus far. Quote:So here's a perfectly plausible scenario: A border war between India This is where we diverge. Russia's relations with India have long had more to do with export markets (particularly for arms) than any real alliance structure, and indeed Russia has recently boosted arrangements with Pakistan in order to balance against India's rapprochement with the US, as well as to deal with the threat posed by the Taliban to its own position in Central Asia. It never intervened in any of the previous Indo-Pakistani conflicts, AFAIK, and I don't see why it would now. China is relatively cool to India, both because of their border disputes, but more because it views its emerging relationship with the US as an attempt at encirclement by the latter. I also don't see why it would use its relatively limited nuclear arsenal to strike at US forces in the Western Pacific when it has been building up its conventional forces to do the same thing, cheaper, with less risk of escalation, and with the ability to keep their own strategic weapons in reserve. Things COULD escalate to a nuclar conflict, but probably not as an opening gambit. YMMV, of course. Quote:That's just one scenario. You could imagine another scenario where I can easily imagine all of those conflicts, as well as an escalation between Russia and the Ukraine. What I don't see are the formal alliances, a la fin de siecle Europe, that would pull all of those conflicts into one. I mean, there's NATO, and US security commitments in Asia, but I don't really see how that would pull Russia in on our side. Quote:The thing that distinguishes generational Crisis eras from other eras Agreed, as far as it goes, but I don't agree that all of those countries are in 4T right now. China, the US, India-Pakistan, Israel? Sure. Russia, Turkey, Iran? Not so much. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2017 Russia, Turkey - so much. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-28-2017 (01-28-2017, 12:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Russia, Turkey - so much. Russia, and Turkey both had crises that started in 1905ish and ended in the early to mid 1920s. Turkey didn't even participate in WWII. Russia did, and yet its Khrushchev Thaw, Brezhnevite Era of Stagnation, and its complete geopolitical collapse in the 1980s and 90s suggest a full saeculum from the 1920s to 2000. Its present environment has been characteried by rising birthrates (admittedly from an apocalypticly low level during the 90s), a widespread reaction to the ills of the 1990s, unified and broadly popular leadership, and a rise in religious sentiments. Unless you're still postulating a 5th turning I don't see how you can view Putin's Russia as anything other than a 1T coming back from a disastrous crisis. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2017 (01-28-2017, 12:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Russia, Turkey - so much. (01-28-2017, 12:17 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: > Russia, and Turkey both had crises that started in 1905ish and I really have no desire at all to rehash these arguments all over again in detail for the 235th time. 1990s was not a crisis for Russia - there was no Regeneracy and no Climax. And yes, Turkey and Russia are in a Fifth Turning, along with Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-28-2017 Come on! It'll be fun! Russian tanks firing on parliament? Civil war in Tajikistan? War between the Chechen and the Russian government, between the Armenians and the Azeris? The complete collapse of a major power? Yeltsin getting re-elected? An attempted coup? Russia in the 90s was in serious crisis. They had a regeneracy, it's just that the people they ended up rallying around were idiots, especially in Russia proper. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2017 Those are all different regions on their own timelines. The collapse of the Soviet Union was not brought about by a Crisis climax; it was brought about by an Awakening climax. The Vietnam War was a "crisis" for America, but there was no Regeneracy and no Climax. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - Warren Dew - 01-28-2017 (01-28-2017, 12:03 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:So here's a perfectly plausible scenario: A border war between India I also find that particular scenario a little questionable, but I think a similar result could be reached another way. In particular, both Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons of their own. I can imagine a conflict between Pakistan and India involving incursions into Chinese territory by India, which along with nuclear saber rattling from India might cause China to promise nuclear backup to Pakistan. Emboldened, Pakistan might actually use a nuke, and then India would retaliate, and China might feel obligated to make good on its promise. And if China nuked a city with a large American expatriate community - or if Pakistan or India did that directly - that might draw the US in. RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-28-2017 (01-28-2017, 12:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Those are all different regions on their own timelines. The collapse The collapse of the Soviet Union was an Awakening? How did we jump to turning #5, then? RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - SomeGuy - 01-28-2017 Warren, But how does that draw in Russia? RE: 27-Jan-17 World View -- China places missiles on Russia's border -- to gain respect - Warren Dew - 01-28-2017 (01-28-2017, 01:13 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Warren, Personally, I have a difficult time seeing Putin getting drawn in to anything that doesn't involve a direct attack on Russia, and he tries to avoid even that, as witness his opposition to a Hillary Clinton presidency. That said, I suppose if the domestic situation in Russia became sufficiently fragile, and some key person were killed that was important politically, he might be drawn in. I think Russia is more likely to be drawn in by a European conflict, for example if Ukraine heated up again and got out of hand. The issue there is that it's France that controls the nuclear weapons, not Germany. |