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Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version

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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 01-31-2021

(01-28-2021, 03:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 03:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 02:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: "We" as in "those of us who realize there's election fraud".  I've been following it pretty closely.

Even though I'm certain you're wrong, what impact would "voter fraud" have on the actual results of the election?

It has already had its impact, electing Biden and one or two Democrats in Georgia to the Senate.

An accusation with no proof or even evidence borders on slander.  No one in a position of authority -- including Republicans anxious to overturn the election -- has found a damn thing.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 04:56 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The GOP establishment lost the Senate seats in Georgia because the GOP embraced Biden as the victor and threw Trump under the bus and a bunch of Republican voters stayed home as a result. The additional illegal votes the Democrats created to benefit themselves mattered too and put them over the top. Oh well, we live in America and America has a history of war and violence and a Constitution that authorizes the use of them against tyranny. We are looking at a tyrannical regime right now. It's not targeting us yet but it will eventually.

Do let us know when the tyranny reigns.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-31-2021

Classic X'er did not respond to my triple-dog dare. I deleted it (a scene from A Christmas Story)


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 05:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: When are you going to recognize that objective standards show that Donald Trump was an awful President? 

I have been saying for some time that the Republican Party has been for the elites forever, and picked up the racists with the southern strategy.  They just don't advertise the fact.  You can't take a shortcut and accuse all Republicans of thinking that way, but when you look at the increase the imbalance of wealth, anti benefit, anti union, ship the jobs abroad, anti domestic spending, anti minority vote, it is clear that that is what they are doing.

I'm not sure they can do that anymore.  No one is big for the elites.  Black Lives Matter has made it not cost effective to go crazy hurting minorities.  They have to steal votes to stay in power.  The Republicans are fractured, so not a lot of energy is going into keeping the racist, sexist, elitist con job going.

In theory, they are going to take a hard fall.  It is just that they have a long way to fall and it has only begun.

The big lie that there was a lot of fraud in the 2020 election should take a big hit in the second impeachment.  Everybody is binding themselves to Trump at the moment.  We'll see where it goes.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 12:57 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 05:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: When are you going to recognize that objective standards show that Donald Trump was an awful President? 

I have been saying for some time that the Republican Party has been for the elites forever, and picked up the racists with the southern strategy.  They just don't advertise the fact.  You can't take a shortcut and accuse all Republicans of thinking that way, but when you look at the increase the imbalance of wealth, anti benefit, anti union, ship the jobs abroad, anti domestic spending, anti minority vote, it is clear that that is what they are doing.

I'm not sure they can do that anymore.  No one is big for the elites.  Black Lives Matter has made it not cost effective to go crazy hurting minorities.  They have to steal votes to stay in power.  The Republicans are fractured, so not a lot of energy is going into keeping the racist, sexist, elitist con job going.

In theory, they are going to take a hard fall.  It is just that they have a long way to fall and it has only begun.

The big lie that there was a lot of fraud in the 2020 election should take a big hit in the second impeachment.  Everybody is binding themselves to Trump at the moment.  We'll see where it goes.

Anti-elitism is strong in both parties now.  Of course how you define the term 'elite' determines everything. If the elites are the economic elites, then both parties are down on them, for different reasons.  If you're down on culture and education, then the right owns that.  The left is down on Christian and White Nationalism, but they are not elite categories.

I can't say that the second impeachment will change anything, though a splinter of the less-committed Trumpers seems to be splitting away ever so slightly.  In the end, Trump will get an undeserved pass, and claim both exoneration and persecution.  If the GOP leaves that in place, it will be an internal abscess.  Those tend to trigger sepsis.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Classic-Xer - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 11:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 04:56 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: The GOP establishment lost the Senate seats in Georgia because the GOP embraced Biden as the victor and threw Trump under the bus and a bunch of Republican voters stayed home as a result. The additional illegal votes the Democrats created to benefit themselves mattered too and put them over the top. Oh well, we live in America and America has a history of war and violence and a Constitution that authorizes the use of them against tyranny. We are looking at a tyrannical regime right now. It's not targeting us yet but it will eventually.

Do let us know when the tyranny reigns.
You won't be hearing from me or seeing me posting, I'll be busy fighting/participating in the 2nd American Revolutionary War and causing all kinds of problems/issues along with millions of other Americans. Don't worry, you'll see it as it's happening and you'll be freaking out over what your seeing happening too.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Classic-Xer - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 12:57 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 05:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: When are you going to recognize that objective standards show that Donald Trump was an awful President? 

I have been saying for some time that the Republican Party has been for the elites forever, and picked up the racists with the southern strategy.  They just don't advertise the fact.  You can't take a shortcut and accuse all Republicans of thinking that way, but when you look at the increase the imbalance of wealth, anti benefit, anti union, ship the jobs abroad, anti domestic spending, anti minority vote, it is clear that that is what they are doing.

I'm not sure they can do that anymore.  No one is big for the elites.  Black Lives Matter has made it not cost effective to go crazy hurting minorities.  They have to steal votes to stay in power.  The Republicans are fractured, so not a lot of energy is going into keeping the racist, sexist, elitist con job going.

In theory, they are going to take a hard fall.  It is just that they have a long way to fall and it has only begun.

The big lie that there was a lot of fraud in the 2020 election should take a big hit in the second impeachment.  Everybody is binding themselves to Trump at the moment.  We'll see where it goes.
Well, it certainly placed a group of GOP senators and congressmen/women out on a limb by themselves with no future. Oh well, live and let die.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 01-31-2021

(01-31-2021, 11:51 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 03:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 03:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 02:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: "We" as in "those of us who realize there's election fraud".  I've been following it pretty closely.

Even though I'm certain you're wrong, what impact would "voter fraud" have on the actual results of the election?

It has already had its impact, electing Biden and one or two Democrats in Georgia to the Senate.

An accusation with no proof or even evidence borders on slander.  No one in a position of authority -- including Republicans anxious to overturn the election -- has found a damn thing.

If you don't like answers, don't ask questions.  The evidence and proof are an easy duckduckgo search away.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 02-01-2021

(01-31-2021, 11:17 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 11:51 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 03:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 03:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-18-2021, 02:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: "We" as in "those of us who realize there's election fraud".  I've been following it pretty closely.

Even though I'm certain you're wrong, what impact would "voter fraud" have on the actual results of the election?

It has already had its impact, electing Biden and one or two Democrats in Georgia to the Senate.

An accusation with no proof or even evidence borders on slander.  No one in a position of authority -- including Republicans anxious to overturn the election -- has found a damn thing.

If you don't like answers, don't ask questions.  The evidence and proof are an easy duckduckgo search away.

I found a lot of, "Hey, look over there!  No, over there! ..." rinse and repeat.  Everything that has been argued has been addressed -- except the practice of "legal" voter suppression which the GOP uses to the fullest extent it can muster.  None of the accusations has proven viable.  Give it a rest.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 02-01-2021

(02-01-2021, 12:07 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 11:17 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: If you don't like answers, don't ask questions.  The evidence and proof are an easy duckduckgo search away.

I found a lot of, "Hey, look over there!  No, over there! ..." rinse and repeat.  Everything that has been argued has been addressed -- except the practice of "legal" voter suppression which the GOP uses to the fullest extent it can muster.  None of the accusations has proven viable.  Give it a rest.

Confirmed.  Georgia held a nine hour meeting which Warren claimed as his best evidence.  I sampled that.

The first thing I would note is that past Georgia policy has been to suppress votes by making it hard for people to cast them.  Thus, there are more hoops to be jumped through to vote than in most places.  Recently, the black organizers have been training voters on how to jump through those hoops.  The result turned the state blue.  The more traditional Republicans did not state the issue overtly, but they were trying to come up with a way to contend with making it easier in the age of COVID to cast votes.

This wound up with the person responsible for running the election to say many people have many opinions on how the Georgia rules for elections could be ‘improved’, but there was a good faith effort to comply with the current rules.  No one contradicted that, though not every concern voiced by conservatives was addressed.

Things could obviously be changed.  Conservatives would try to find more ways that couldn’t be trained away to suppress minority votes.  The Democrats would encourage more and easier voting.  There would always be a tension between the two approaches.  What they did not find was any evidence of systematic fraud.  The number which was most often quoted was that the machine vote implemented for quick results had the same number of votes as the manual recounts.  Thus, there was no tampering with the machines.

I would note that state wide elections such as for president, governor or senator can not be gerrymandered.  Everyone gets one vote.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-01-2021

*** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
  • How Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a useful idiot
  • China may intervene in Myanmar
  • The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Shan state

****
**** Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
****


[Image: g210201b.jpg]
Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi in happier days, before she turned into Hitler

The military in Myanmar (Burma) on Sunday arrested the country's
nominal leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and about 45 other government
officials, in a military coup. Army chief Min Aung Hlaing declared a
state of emergency, and claims that the state of emergency will last a
year, and then there will be new elections.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won a
landslide victory two months ago in November's parliamentary
elections, with 80% of the seats. The army's political party suffered
a huge defeat, and risked losing a great deal of power when the new
parliament was seated, which was scheduled for today (Monday).

In 2010, the army released Suu Kyi from detention. She had been under
detention since the 1988 student protests, in which she participated.
During her time in detention, she won a Nobel Peace Prize.

She went into politics and became country leader under the condition
that she "share power" with the army. There have been numerous
disagreements between the two, but apparently there was always one
area of agreement: Aung Sang Suu Kyi and the army and the Buddhist
monks, led by Ashin Wirathu, committed massive genocide, atrocities
and ethnic cleansing on ethnic Rohingya Muslims. Suu Kyi still
retains her Nobel Peace Prize anyway.

On Monday, the NLD issued a statement that had been written by Suu Kyi
in advance, in anticipation of the coup. In the statement, Suu Kyi
called on the country’s 55 million people to oppose a return to
“military dictatorship.” The implication is that she is asking her
supporters to protest and riot.

****
**** How Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a useful idiot
****


[Image: g210201c.jpg]
Cox's Bazar refugee camp for Rohingyas in Bangladesh, fleeing from Burma (al-Jazeera)

Army general Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the coup, became head of
the army in 2011. That was the same year that Burma's security forces
began committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in
Rakhine State. The atrocities were supported by Buddhist monks, led
by Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu. The United Nations described it as "a
textbook example of ethnic cleansing." The atrocities included gang
rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of
entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Aung Sang Suu Kyi told
reporters nothing had happened.

In 2013, a mob of Buddhists attacked a Rohingya village, hacking 20
boys to death, and reduced an entire established community of 12,000
Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble.
Aung Sang Suu Kyi told reporters nothing had happened.

A massive period of full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing began in
August 2017. Tens of thousands were killed, and 730,000 refugees were
forced across the border into Bangladesh, where they're still living
in the crowded, filthy Cox's Bazar refugee camp.

In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague held a trial
on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and defended the
army, saying that nothing had happened.

So Aung Sang Suu Kyi is just a useful idiot, becoming a war criminal
herself and serving the needs of the Burmese army war criminal, by
presenting a sympathetic tired, weary, female face to the world to
deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their
country.

These atrocities have been going on since 2011, but almost nobody
cared, or even cares much now, because of Aung Sang Suu Kyi's tired,
weary, female face, reciting the words of her puppetmaster Min Aung
Hlaing. Most Burmese people are well aware of the genocide and ethnic
cleansing of the Rohingyas. But they aren't bothered by it. They
love it. "Go on!" you might imagine millions of Burmese saying in
unison. "Torture the Rohingyas some more! Rape them some more! Slit
their throats, so that their impure blood waters the furrows of our
farmland!"

The Burmese hatred of the Rohingyas is not rare. That kind of ethnic
hatred is common in several countries today and recently. It's the
rule. It's the Chinese hatred of Uighurs. It's the Zimbabwe Shona
hatred of the Nbdele. It's the Syrian Alawite hatred of Arab Sunnis.
It's the Rwandan Hutu hatred of Tutsis. It's the Nazi hatred of Jews.
In America today, it's the Democrats' hatred of the 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters, as I described at length in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook"
.

Aung Sang Suu Kyi sold herself, her self-respect, and her soul out to
become a useful idiot for the Burmese army war criminals. As often
happens by groups united only be hatred and criminality, army and Aung
Sang Suu Kyi have now become enemies. The army has arrested Aung Sang
Suu Kyi and dozens of people in her government, but the army just lost
an election in a landslide, and they can't arrest the millions of
people who supported her. (This is also a lesson for America.)

Aung Sang Suu Kyi has called on her millions of supporters to oppose
the coup with protests. This could easily unravel into full-scale
riots. However, the Burmese forces were extremely violent for years
against the Rohingyas, and they won't hesitate to be equally violent
against their own people. They can also count on support from the
Chinese Communists, who conduct their own violence against Uighurs,
Tibetans, Buddhists, Christians, and anyone who disagrees with them.

****
**** China may intervene in Myanmar
****


Myanmar and China share a common border, and they have a great deal in
common, especially since both are committing genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Muslims, of Rohingyas and Uighurs, respectively. That
must give them a lot to talk about, to discuss the best methods for
torture and enslavement. Indeed, in a meeting last month with Min
Aung Hlaing, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called the two countries
“brothers” while praising the military’s “national revitalization.”
Myanmar has promised to "continue to support China's position on
issues related to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang." They also support each
other in the United Nations, when they're accused of crimes against
humanity. It takes one to know one.

China is heavily involved in building Myanmar's infrastructure,
including a joint construction project to build the China-Myanmar
Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI). The CMEC focuses on 12 areas including basic
infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport,
finance, human resource development and telecommunications.

China is also practicing "vaccine diplomacy," by promising to provide
300,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines to Myanmar.

However, China and Burma have also had strong disagreements over
separatist ethnic groups. In August 2009, there was violent fighting
between Burma's army and rebels from the Kokang ethnic group. This
angered the Chinese because the Kokang are a Han Chinese minority,
and got China's army involved briefly.

****
**** The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Shan state
****


The wild card in this situation is the separatist Kachin Independence
Army (KIA), which is demanding a separate state for the Kachin ethnic
group. They've joined together with the Shan ethnic group and other
ethnic groups in northern Burma, along the border with China, to form a
"northern alliance" against Burma's army. In northern Shan state,
intense fighting has occurred since January 2018 and intensified since
December 2020. There are an estimated 7 ethnic armed organizations, 20
militia groups, and 7 Border Guard Forces (BGFs) actively engaged in
an armed independence movement against the Myanmar government.

Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were
extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic
groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

62 years have passed since the climax of the last generational crisis
war, so Burma is ripe for cycling around and having a new violent
ethnic civil war. China was heavily involved in the 1950s crisis war,
and they would be involved in a new Myanmar civil war, possibly
destabilizing the entire region.

Pretty much everyone is shocked that the army engineered this coup at
this time. Analysts are puzzled by why the army took this step right
now, since they pretty much control everything anyway, even with Aung
San Suu Kyi as the nominal leader.

So the following is speculation: Perhaps the Burmese army has
intelligence that sees signs of new KIA activity, and they want to
lock everything down. As I said, this is speculation, but the current
situation appears to be potentially very unstable, with an army coup,
with threats of protests and riots by Aung Sang Suu Kyi's millions of
supporters, and with the possibility of protests by the Kachin and
Shan ethnic groups, it's necessary to watch the situation in Myanmar
very carefully in the next few weeks.

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Min Aung Hlaing, National League for Democracy, NLD,
Rakhine State, Ashin Wirathu, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Cox's Bazar,
International Court of Justice, Wang Yi, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, CMEC

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Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-07-2021

*** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
  • History of violence and atrocities in Burma
  • Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
  • The state of the world.
  • Infographic: Refugee flows around the world

****
**** Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow
****


[Image: g210207b.jpg]
Thousands of protesters in Yangon on Sunday carrying placards with image of Aung San Suu Kyi (BBC)

Myanmar / Burma is seeing its largest protests in more than a decade,
as tens of thousands of protesters demanded that Aung San Suu Kyi be
freed, after she was arrested by the army last weekend during an army
coup. (See "2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials"
)

The "problem" that the army has to face is that Suu Kyi has millions
of supporters, as her party won legislative elections by a landslide
in November.

To combat the peaceful protests, the army shut down the internet. The
army shut down internet social media, and then the entire internet,
making it difficult for international observers to know what was going
on, and to prevent protesters from easily communicating with one
another. However, on Saturday, the internet was partially restored,
though social media is still blocked.

****
**** History of violence and atrocities in Burma
****


What everyone fears is the next tactic -- violence.

In October 2007, there were large nationwide anti-army pro-democracy
demonstrations, led by over 100,000 Buddhist monks. These were
demonstrations by the "88 Generation," triggered by an abrupt
government decision to double the price of gasoline. ( "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in
government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the
protests to begin with, were gathered up and detained. Some were
found floating face down in rivers.

By coincidence, Sylvester Stallone was filming a Rambo film nearby,
and witnessed some of the genocide. Stallone said:

<QUOTE>"I witnessed the aftermath—survivors with legs cut off
and all kinds of land mine injuries, maggot-infested wounds and
ears cut off. We saw many elephants with blown off legs. We hear
about Vietnam and Cambodia and this was more horrific. This is a
hellhole beyond your wildest dreams. All the trails are
mined. The only way into Burma is up the river."<END QUOTE>


The October 2007 demonstrations occurred 19 years after the previous
major nationwide demonstrations, starting on August 8, 1988 (8/8/88),
creating what was called the "88 Generation," led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
Those demonstrations were crushed when the Burmese army fired on
students with machine guns, killing thousands. Suu Kyi was arrested
and put into detention for years.

Atrocities come easily to Burma's army. Since 2011, the army has been
committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine
State, as I described in last week's article. The atrocities included
gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of
entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Aung Sang Suu Kyi
became a "useful idiot" for the army by presenting a sympathetic,
tired, weary, female face to the world to deflect the horrors and
atrocities that are occurring in their country, as I described
in my article.

Suu Kyi appeased the army by becoming a useful idiot, just as
Neville Chamberlain appeased Hitler and the Nazis. In both cases
there were high prices to be paid for being appeasers.

The international community is now waiting to see what will happen
next in Burma. Anti-government pro-democracy protests have been
growing. How long will the army wait before repeating the violence
and atrocities that come as easily to them as smoking a cigarette?

****
**** Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
****


[Image: g210207c.jpg]
Nancy Pelosi has requested thousands of troops in Washington DC, armed with crew-manned machine guns like the one shown above

The problems facing the Democrats in Washington DC are similar to the
problems facing the army in Burma.

The Burmese army has to deal with millions of Aung Sang Suu Kyi
supporters conducting street protests. They've arrested Suu Kyi so
that she can't communicate with her supporters, and they've shut down
internet social media so that her supporters can't communicate with
one another.

The Democrats have to deal with 74 million Trump supporters who,
according to polls I've seen, overwhelmingly support Trump. The
wealthy, powerful "Big Tech" companies have colluded with the
Democrats to shut down thousands of social media accounts to prevent
Trump from communicating with his supporters, and to prevent his
supporters from communicating with each other. This kind of mass
censorship is previously unheard of in America, and suggests that
America is becoming a Stalinist dictatorship.

The Democrats are taking other steps. Joe Biden announced last
week that hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens will be permitted
to enter the United States freely. The apparent purpose is to send
them mail-in ballots in 2022 and instruct them to vote for Democrats.

What about violence? The Burmese army is on the verge of violence as
the only way to handle even peaceful demonstrations by the millions of
supporters of Suu Kiy.

Would the Democrats use violence to control peaceful demonstrations by
the 74 million Trump supporters?

Let's make it a little more specific. Look at the first picture at
the beginning of this article with a mob of peaceful demonstrators
carrying placards with pictures Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Now imagine that
as a crowd of Trump supporters carrying placards with pictures of
Trump, with text reading "Trump - The Real President."

Something like that could actually happen. What would the Democrats
do? Would Nancy Pelosi totally freak out? On January 20, the acting
Deputy Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli
said that Nancy Pelosi had requested thousands of troops to remain in
DC for months, and she wanted them armed with crew-manned machine
guns. These are the guns used in countries like Burma to kill dozens
of student protesters within seconds. The request was denied, but
this request shows the state of mind of Pelosi and the Democrats.

We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that
"extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to
be "deprogrammed."

****
**** The state of the world.
****


If you're talking about psychology and madness, it's hard to find any
aspect of today's world that isn't full of madness.

You have full-scale genocide going on in China, as bad as the world
has seen since the 1930s, or worse. China is also annexing or
threatening to annex other regions, as the Nazis did in the 1930s.

There are huge refugee flows around the world. The number of
displaced persons has surged astronomically since 2010.

America is being governed by "big tech" companies, and America is
moving in the direction of a Stalinist dictatorship.

Stock prices are at astronomically high valuations, and global debt is
unsustainable in the hundreds of trillions.

I find the madness of today's world personally overwhelming. To say
that it's a world that is senseless to me is an understatement. I can
understand how King Solomon saw a world of madness and folly and
chaos.

Generational Dynamics is less about predictions than it is about
trends. And the madness and folly and chaos trends are growing worse
every day. These are the trends, and the trends are unstoppable.
Every aspect of today's world is worse than yesterday's world. The
only good news is that today's world is better than tomorrow's world.

If something can't go on forever, then it won't.

People talk about how to prevent World War III. But Generational
Dynamics sees a world that needs World War III. Each day's delay
means that World War III will be even worse.

****
**** Infographic: Refugee flows around the world
****


[Image: g210207d.jpg]
Infographic: Refugee flows around the world surging since 2010 (UNHCR)

Sources:

Related Articles:



[b]KEYS:
Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Aung San Suu Kyi,
Min Aung Hlaing, National League for Democracy, NLD,
Sylvester Stallone, Rambo, 88 Generation,
Rohingyas, Rakhine State,
Washington DC, Nancy Pelosi, crew-manned machine guns,
China, King Solomon

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-08-2021

Quote:The problems facing the Democrats in Washington DC are similar to the
problems facing the army in Burma.

The Burmese army has to deal with millions of Aung Sang Suu Kyi
supporters conducting street protests. They've arrested Suu Kyi so
that she can't communicate with her supporters, and they've shut down
internet social media so that her supporters can't communicate with
one another.

Comparing Joe Biden to the Burmese Army is about like comparing Karl Mannerheim (effective leader of a democratic Finland in WWII) to the Nazi SS. The Burmese Army has a well-earned reputation as genocidal tool of dictatorial regimes... and is effectively a State within a State. Comparing Aung Sang Suu Kyi to people who violated the sanctity of the Capitol is almost like comparing Alexander Kerensky to the Bolsheviks who stormed the Winter Palace in Petrograd in 1917.

The impression that I have of Burma is that the Burmese Army throughout its existence has run the country so  that it can grab every resource possible and ensure that the only way in which to prosper in Burma is to be in the upper echelon of the Army, to have connections to the Army for personal gain, or to do something both extremely sleazy and profitable -- but easy to skim. At one time Burma was a center of the world trade in illicit opiates after the Chinese Communists started executing drug traffickers while Burma remained a safe haven for drug traffickers so long as they gave the Army a share in the take. (Normal businesses typically have much lower profit margins and aren't so easy to bleed. Impose punitive taxes upon businesses and the cost of living soars. The Burmese people obviously can't afford drug habits, so nobody cares except for people that just about everyone loathes).

Even if Burmese democrats succeed in remaining in power they will need to dismantle the command economy that the Burmese Armed Forces has in place.       


Quote:The Democrats have to deal with 74 million Trump supporters who,
according to polls I've seen, overwhelmingly support Trump. The
wealthy, powerful "Big Tech" companies have colluded with the
Democrats to shut down thousands of social media accounts to prevent
Trump from communicating with his supporters, and to prevent his
supporters from communicating with each other. This kind of mass
censorship is previously unheard of in America, and suggests that
America is becoming a Stalinist dictatorship.

Biden got over 51% of the popular vote, which is over 81 million votes to about 46% of the popular vote and 74 million votes by Donald Trump. The Electoral College established that Donald Trump got the votes that mattered more under our system in 2016. In 2020 Joe Biden got slightly more of the total share of the vote than did Ronald Reagan in 1980. That was enough to win the Electoral College 306-232, which is much less than Reagan got in 1980. I don't really want to compare what would have happened had Carter won all the popular votes that John Anderson won that year because... well, Biden isn't Reagan. Trump is Reagan without the wise advisors (like the recently-deceased George Shultz), the wit, the caution, the coachability, the occasional kind words, the willingness to get his way piecemeal instead of all at once, and the selflessness. If Reagan was a fine actor (if not at the level of such contemporaries as Cary Grant, Jimmy Stewart, Gary Cooper, Henry Fonda, and Laurence Olivier), he did not go into directing or become a studio boss as his talent as an actor faded. Trump has been the studio boss for some very bad television. 

The difference between Trump winning in 2016 and losing in 2020 boils down to demographic change. Voters over 55 in 2016 were about 5% more D than R in 2016. They were also over 59 -- if they survived. About 1.6% of the electorate dies off or goes senile each year and thus quits voting, and those people are predominately over 55. The people replacing them are largely under 40, and for now those people vote about 20% more D than R. Trump did little to win younger voters from the D fold... so over four years about 6.4% of the vote shifts from 5% more R to D to 20% more D than R. Trump was much the same person in 2020 as in 2016, and people who thought that he was wonderful in 2016 generally still voted for him in 2020. People who despised him in 2016 still voted against him in 2020. That model suggested an even shift of about 1.6% from R to D, which would have flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Biden (which would have been enough), and Florida, which would have flipped in an even shift. That model would have predicted that Biden would win 307-321. Trump did hold Florida, but he lost Arizona, Georgia, and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska instead, so Biden won 306-232. One electoral vote off from that model is amazing.  I'm not going to discuss why the states went as they did. On the whole, those who voted in 2016 seemed to vote much the same way in 2020 -- if they voted. The people who joined or departed the electorate probably made the difference.

.................................................

As for Big Tech dominating American life... Facebook, Twitter, and other social media operate much like open forums.  People seem to do with new technology largely (once the technology is easy enough to use that one no longer need be tech-savvy to use it) what they did with older forms of technology. E-mail is much like the telegraph in its function. We are getting methods for imitating conference calls (I have yet to learn how to use those). People use cell phones much like their old landline phones. YouTube videos resemble television and the old cinematic shorts. YouTube is beginning to cut into the cable TV racket. People do much on Facebook and Twitter what they used to do by mail. It can be anything from transmitting news ("Hey, Kim... George Shultz just died!"), photos and short video ("Hey, Gene! I have some photos from my trip to Yosemite!), recipes, and news about family get togethers... the more political stuff is like the old-fashioned letters to the editor in newspapers. (Newspapers have been trying to replace dead-tree editions with electronic editions). With a newspaper, getting a letter into the column the editor had more control over what went in. Typically an editor refused to publish something from a source outside the market area for the newspaper unless there was some compelling reason for doing so. In the town in which I live, one must demonstrate that (1) what you right is genuine, (2) it is germane to the community,  (3) that it isn't commercial in nature (don't try selling your boat in the letters to the editor; that is welcome in the want ads), and (4) that you live within the market zone for the paper. The editor could reject anything for incoherence, irrelevance, offense, potential slander or libel, militancy, or quackery. The letter can be truncated and of course corrected for grammatical errors, punctuation, and spelling. 

Facebook and Twitter were free-for-alls. People could supply almost anything, and there were even fakes. In 2016 there was much of that, like "Georgia Blacks for Trump" who claim to be from Atlanta, but whose IP address is in Nigeria.  If they spoke on video they had Nigerian accents while claiming to have been born in Georgia. What couldn't make it? Commercial messages, porn, and material obviously violating copyright laws. 

The free-for-all is over. One must admit that much of what was in Trump tweets was offensive. But he was President! Racism and religious bigotry? Do we need that any more than we need pornography? OK, erotica  serves some purpose for lonely people. Calls to violence? Few predicted that there would be a mob doing their American version of the Beer Hall Putsch or the  storming of the Winter Palace based on the conversational "traffic" because supposedly such does not happen in America.  Now we know.     



Quote:The Democrats are taking other steps. Joe Biden announced last
week that hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens will be permitted
to enter the United States freely. The apparent purpose is to send
them mail-in ballots in 2022 and instruct them to vote for Democrats.

They would have to get citizenship fast. The minimum time for achieving US citizenship is typically five years, which won't be in time for the 2022 or 2024 elections. People now illegal aliens would need to apply for citizenship and start the process.  


Quote:What about violence? The Burmese army is on the verge of violence as
the only way to handle even peaceful demonstrations by the millions of
supporters of Suu Kiy.

The Burmese Army has typically resorted to brute force to solve the question of power. It knows well that the gravy train of a command economy that serves the Army first and at the expense of all else would come to an end in a democracy. A democratic Burma would by necessity scale back the Armed Forces, establish something closer to a free-market economy like that of Thailand, and put an end to the persecution of the Rohingya. Multi-ethnic democracies may be shakier than those more homogeneous, but for real instability, look to a multi-ethnic society under a dictatorship.

A system like that in Burma exploits practically everyone. When the military is in control, practically everyone is a prisoner or a serf. 

Quote:Would the Democrats use violence to control peaceful demonstrations by
the 74 million Trump supporters?

They would be treated much like Black Lives Matter. Violent acts within a peaceful protest are matters for police to deal with. Most people in peaceful protests gladly sacrifice violent participants to the police.  

There have been plenty of peaceful protests. I've driven past them. 


Quote:Let's make it a little more specific. Look at the first picture at
the beginning of this article with a mob of peaceful demonstrators
carrying placards with pictures Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Now imagine that
as a crowd of Trump supporters carrying placards with pictures of
Trump, with text reading "Trump - The Real President."

The big difference is that Aung Sang Suu Kyi was legitimately elected in parliamentary elections, and Donald Trump was clearly not re-elected. A placard that has a picture of Obama and text reading "Obama - Still My President" or "Hillary Clinton - the real President" would be protected under the First Amendment. Have people been busted for saying "F--- Joe Biden"? I think not. It is offensive.     



Quote:Something like that could actually happen. What would the Democrats
do? Would Nancy Pelosi totally freak out? On January 20, the acting
Deputy Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli
said that Nancy Pelosi had requested thousands of troops to remain in
DC for months, and she wanted them armed with crew-manned machine
guns. These are the guns used in countries like Burma to kill dozens
of student protesters within seconds. The request was denied, but
this request shows the state of mind of Pelosi and the Democrats.

Source, please!


Quote:We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that
"extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to
be "deprogrammed."

Millions of them are going to deprogram themselves as they realize that what the words seemed to mean was very different from what they meant.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
Quote:We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that
"extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to
be "deprogrammed."

Millions of them are going to deprogram themselves as they realize that what the words seemed to mean was very different from what they meant.

John is one of those believers in lies.  I've been projecting that Trump would produce no evidence of voter fraud in his second impeachment when he will have as much reason as any to produce the evidence, but even if he doesn't John will still favor what he wants to believe over what there is evidence of.  Xenakis is just that intellectually bankrupt.

Many of the extreme followers are just racist.  Note that most of the people who led the capitol insurrection were with the racist organizations.  They just would rather destroy democracy than let go of their hate.  Holding on to a racist presidency was worth it to them lest Biden reduce the immunity to murdering minorities and make it harder to suppress votes.

I would hope it would be clear that Trump lied and your anticipated self deprogramming happened.  I will believe it when I see it.  There is still the hope that a small government scheme to not provided services to minority won't backfire to hurt the working poor as well, but the hurt is real and folks are starting to see reality.  If Biden makes a big dent in the problems which Trump ignored, we should be all right.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 02-08-2021

Just a quibble--

(02-07-2021, 09:19 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [Image: g210207c.jpg]
Nancy Pelosi has requested thousands of troops in Washington DC, armed with crew-manned machine guns like the one shown above

That's actually a sniper rifle, not a machinegun.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 12:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
Quote:We also note that Biden is ordering the army to "stand down" so that
"extremists" can be weeded out. To the Democrats, all 74 million Tea
Partiers and Trump supporters are extremists or cultists that need to
be "deprogrammed."

Millions of them are going to deprogram themselves as they realize that what the words seemed to mean was very different from what they meant.

John is one of those believers in lies.  I've been projecting that Trump would produce no evidence of voter fraud in his second impeachment when he will have as much reason as any to produce the evidence, but even if he doesn't John will still favor what he wants to believe over what there is evidence of.  Xenakis is just that intellectually bankrupt.

There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got cheated out of an election. Official results sworn to on pain of perjury and achieved in accordance with state laws that must adhere to the Voting Rights Act (the federal legislation called for in the mandate clauses of the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution) are definitive whether the margin is six votes or sixty percent. State governments have done much to preclude double voting, voting in two different places, and the recognition of votes by those who die before Election Day. Tight rules about custody of voting materials and voting devices make manipulation of the vote nearly impossible. Forged ballots? The methods used for ensuring that fraudulent ballots cannot be counted are modeled after accounting controls that Big Business uses for cash and high-value items that could easily be sold after misappropriation. The only dirty characteristic of this election was COVID-19, which would have scared voters from voting in person about as effectively as would an armed militia that intimidates potential voters selectively. States had to accommodate the danger of voting in person at the polls. In my case (Michigan) the state gave people the option to use an absentee ballot without needing one of the usual excuses (which include being over 60, being away from the community for work, incapacity to vote at the polls for medical purposes, being a poll worker, or being in a jail lockup while awaiting trial or if incarcerated for a misdemeanor offense.   


Quote:Many of the extreme followers are just racist.  Note that most of the people who led the capitol insurrection were with the racist organizations.  They just would rather destroy democracy than let go of their hate.  Holding on to a racist presidency was worth it to them lest Biden reduce the immunity to murdering minorities and make it harder to suppress votes.

Freedom includes the freedom to be wrong. People are as free to be racists as they are to believe in a flat earth or that they can square a circle. We have always had racists, and nobody can be sure that they will go away. But even racists can see what is in their best interests. What is more dangerous is that those who harbor the authoritarian mindset that adulates a near-fascist leader, accepts conspiracy theories as truth irrespective of their lack of validity, considers force acceptable in choosing the results of elections, attacks lawful authority that gets in the way of its desires, and sees blind loyalty to its chosen idols as the sole expression of patriotism. The Confederate banners and Trump flags did not belong in the Capitol building. What one cannot do is overt crime, like attacking Capitol police, disrupting a lawful session of Congress, putting members of the House and Senate and their staffers at risk, breaking into the Capitol itself (that is called burglary!), or either taking or exposing classified data. People who have never been in legal trouble before and now facing long prison sentences will talk to save their skins. Let us remember that killing federal police (which includes the Capitol police) is still a federal capital offense.

In the longer term we will need educational reforms, most obviously the expansion of liberal education that can ensure that people be less ignorant of economics, formal logic, psychology, probability and statistics, and the rhetorical techniques of deceit. If such was good for fighting Soviet-era Communism and good for gutting Jim Crow, then it should be good for defanging the authoritarian cult that is Trumpism. One can be a conservative without being a fascist just as one can be a liberal without being a Marxist-Leninist.     

Quote:I would hope it would be clear that Trump lied and your anticipated self deprogramming happened.  I will believe it when I see it.  There is still the hope that a small government scheme to not provided services to minority won't backfire to hurt the working poor as well, but the hurt is real and folks are starting to see reality.  If Biden makes a big dent in the problems which Trump ignored, we should be all right.

If you can't convince Archie Bunker, then perhaps you can convince his kids. The original idea behind the medieval university was to improve young men so that if they ever got responsibility they would handle it in accordance with moral standards instead of blatant, predatory self-interest. If they learned something along with the trivium and quadrivium... wonderful. In recent years we have made the training of youth to fit initial roles in a capitalist society the objective. We have not taught them how to think and how to seek meaning in life. The liberal arts taught youth how to think and how to seek meaning in life.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-08-2021

** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Machine guns

(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Source, please!

The following link appears in the article under "Sources:":

Acting DHS Deputy Head During Capitol Riot Reveals Pelosi Demanded 'Machine Guns' to Be Deployed Against Civilians in DC (Western Journal, 23-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 07:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got
> cheated out of an election.

I'm sorry, it's totally pointless to discuss this with you. You are
totally unqualified to make this statement, because you're totally
ignorant about what's going on, since you watch only highly censored
Stalinist news sources.

In his January 6 speech, Donald Trump gave a lengthy description
of the many examples of massive election fraud:

-- Donald Trump Speech “Save America” Rally Transcript January 6
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-speech-save-america-rally-transcript-january-6
(Rev.com, 6-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 02:07 PM)David Horn Wrote: > That's actually a sniper rifle, not a machinegun.

Thanks for the correction. How about this one?

[Image: Improved_M249_Machine_Gun.jpg]
  • M249 light machine gun



RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 02-09-2021

(02-08-2021, 09:22 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Feb-2021 World View: Machine guns

(02-08-2021, 05:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Source, please!

The following link appears in the article under "Sources:":

Acting DHS Deputy Head During Capitol Riot Reveals Pelosi Demanded 'Machine Guns' to Be Deployed Against Civilians in DC (Western Journal, 23-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 07:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   There is simply no legal defense of any contention that Trump got
>   cheated out of an election.

I'm sorry, it's totally pointless to discuss this with you.  You are
totally unqualified to make this statement, because you're totally
ignorant about what's going on, since you watch only highly censored
Stalinist news sources.

In his January 6 speech, Donald Trump gave a lengthy description
of the many examples of massive election fraud:

-- Donald Trump Speech “Save America” Rally Transcript January 6
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-speech-save-america-rally-transcript-january-6
(Rev.com, 6-Jan-2021)

(02-08-2021, 02:07 PM)David Horn Wrote: >  That's actually a sniper rifle, not a machinegun.

Thanks for the correction.  How about this one?

[Image: Improved_M249_Machine_Gun.jpg]
  • M249 light machine gun

The Trump speech is more an example of a liar lying than anything else. It is certainly not evidence.

The weapon is not crew served.

Power, unlike you, has integrity. You will throw away lies in imitation of defending yourself with facts. Both of you are internet warriors, though you pretend feverishly to be a professional. You have too much of an ideological bias to pretend.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-09-2021

Here is how Trump lost:

Here is analysis from one of Trump's pollsters on how 2020 really went. It is from December, and it subdivides the states that were within 10% of going to Hillary Clinton in 2016 that went to Trump. The states in question were those, and not others.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-6046-de2d-a57f-7a6e8c950000S

A synopsis is in this cover article:

Former President Donald Trump has blamed the election results on unfounded claims of fraud and malfeasance. But at the top levels of his campaign, a detailed autopsy report that circulated among his political aides paints a far different — and more critical — portrait of what led to his defeat.

The post-mortem, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, says the former president suffered from voter perception that he wasn’t honest or trustworthy and that he was crushed by disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And while Trump spread baseless accusations of ballot-stuffing in heavily Black cities, the report notes that he was done in by hemorrhaging support from white voters.


The 27-page report, which was written by Trump chief pollster Tony Fabrizio, shows how Trump advisers were privately reckoning with his loss even as the former president and many of his supporters engaged in a conspiracy theory-fueled effort to overturn the election. The autopsy was completed in December 2020 and distributed to Trump’s top political advisers just before President Joe Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration.


It is unclear if Trump has seen the report.

The findings are based on an analysis of exit polling in 10 states. Five of them — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — are states that Trump lost after winning them in 2016. The other five — Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — are states that Trump won in both elections.

The report zeroes in on an array of demographics where Trump suffered decisive reversals in 2020, including among white seniors, the same group that helped to propel him to the White House. The autopsy says that Trump saw the “greatest erosion with white voters, particularly white men,” and that he “lost ground with almost every age group.” In the five states that flipped to Biden, Trump’s biggest drop-off was among voters aged 18-29 and 65 and older.

Suburbanites — who bolted from Trump after 2016 — also played a major role. The report says that the former president suffered a “double-digit erosion” with “White College educated voters across the board.”

The picture of the election presented in the report is widely shared by political professionals in both parties, if not by Trump and his legions of his supporters. Trump never offered a concession to Biden, and up until his final days in office, he clung to the debunked idea that the election had been stolen.

Fabrizio declined to comment on the post-mortem. A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s personal behavior, the autopsy makes clear, contributed to his defeat. “Biden had a clear edge over POTUS on being seen as honest & trustworthy,” Fabrizio writes.

Trump’s response to the pandemic was also critical. The autopsy says that coronavirus registered as the top issue among voters, and that Biden won those voters by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. A majority registered disapproval of Trump’s handling of the virus.

Most voters said they prioritized battling the coronavirus over reopening the economy, even as the president put a firm emphasis on the latter. And roughly 75 percent of voters — most of whom favored Biden — said they favored public mask-wearing mandates.

The report also indirectly raises questions about the reelection campaign’s decision to pause advertising on TV over the summer and save resources until the fall. According to the findings, nearly 9-in-10 voters had made up their minds about whom to support by the final month of the race.

Fabrizio isn’t the only Trump adviser who has presented a post-mortem since Nov. 3. John McLaughlin, another Trump pollster, published a report on the conservative Newsmax website the week after the election.

Meanwhile, advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence brought in multiple pollsters to brief him on their conclusions after the election, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Among the takeaways was that Trump was gaining during the final weeks of the race and that his rallies had helped propel Republicans running in House and Senate races. But the pollsters also made clear that while there was substantial support for Trump’s policies, there was widespread exhaustion with the president.

Within Trump’s inner circle, Fabrizio had long espoused the belief that Trump needed to prioritize the pandemic in order to win reelection. Last summer, he penned a 79-page memo arguing that Trump needed to focus first on dealing with the pandemic rather than reopening the economy and recommending, among other things, that he should have been encouraging people to wear masks rather than mocking the practice.


https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/01/trump-campaign-autopsy-paints-damning-picture-of-defeat-464636

Comment:

So this explains why Trump could lose the Presidential election while Republicans did well in gaining House seats and (until the two Senate run-offs in Georgia) holding onto the Senate majority. This analysis comes before Warnock and Ossoff defeated Republican US Senate incumbents in Georgia.

Trump did surprisingly well among Hispanics, who weren't as strongly D as usual. To be sure, the Hispanics in Florida are heavily Cuban-Americans who have a very different political heritage than do the largely Mexican-Americans in Arizona.  He lost heavily among those who saw his personal integrity in doubt, which was much more among college-educated white people in 2020 than in 2016.


RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2021

** 15-Feb-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma - Violence escalates further

[Image: 4080.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=forma...d7f8fb0c3e]
  • Tanks of the streets of Yangon during rush hour on Monday (Guardian)


The army in Myanmar / Burma is escalating its operations to try to
bring anti-army protests to an end. The protests began with the army
coup on February 1, when the sainted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her
government officials were arrested for reasons still not fully
understood, and were replaced by an army junta. Protesters are
demanding that she be released, and that democracy be restored.

The army had hoped that the protests would fizzle quickly, but they've
continued. In Yangon, the protests are at the Chinese Embassy, as the
protesters accuse China of backing the protests. (The Chinese
Communists consider democracy to be a "poison," so the protesters are
probably right.)

Security forces have begun targeting peaceful protesters with rubber
bullets in Yangon, Mandalay, and other cities according to reports.
Tanks have been filling the streets, and in Yangon, eight-wheeled
armoured vehicles have been seen trying to navigate the rush-hour
traffic, sometimes surrounded by cars honking their opposition to the
coup.

The army shut down the internet across the country on Sunday for eight
hours, but finally restored it.

It's believed that the army is building up to massive bloody violence
against protesters, such as it used in 2007 and 1988.

However, they may be reluctant because of international pressure from
the UN, US, EU and other nations. Furthermore, the Biden
administration is threatening sanctions that would target the
international business dealings of the army generals, and that threat
may temporarily delay further escalation of violence.

However, according to some reports, the security forces may be
planning a new tactic. The army has pardoned 23,000 prison inmates,
and the reports indicate that they have been exhibiting "thuggish
behavior" late at night to create community disturbances. Many
neighborhoods have formed night-time vigilante groups to deter these
thugs, who are rumored to have been dispatched by the army junta.

This is quite believable, since it's part of the standard playbook
used by government officials before a violent crackdown. The
government provokes some kind of violent incident, then uses that
violent incident to declare that all the peaceful protesters are
really "domestic terrorists," so that violence against them can be
justified. See:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210112.htm#e210112



This is the same playbook used by Burma against the Rohingyas and by
China against the Uighurs. So if these reports are correct, then we
can expect to see a lot more violence in the next few days.


---- Sources:

-- Myanmar: troops and police forcefully disperse marchers in Mandalay
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/15/myanmar-internet-restored-protesters-army-presence-aung-san-suu-kyi
(Guardian, London, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar coup: Protesters face up to 20 years in prison under new
law
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56067423
(BBC, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Tycoons Close to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Interrogated by Myanmar
Military
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/tycoons-close-daw-aung-san-suu-kyi-interrogated-myanmar-military.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar Vigilante Groups Formed to Handle Night Thugs A vigilante
group patrols in a Yangon neighborhood.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-vigilante-groups-formed-handle-night-thugs.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 14-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar security forces intensify crackdown on protesters
https://apnews.com/article/aung-san-suu-kyi-myanmar-asia-yangon-southeast-asia-afee2d2de0bfc209bed83f2ff6827978
(AP, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Aung San Suu Kyi detention extended
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/02/16/2003752334
(Taipei Times, 16-Feb-2021)

-- US sanctions on Myanmar: 5 things to know
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/US-sanctions-on-Myanmar-5-things-to-know
(Nikkei, 12-Feb-2021)


---- Related articles:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210112.htm#e210112



** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow -- Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210208.htm#e210208



** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210202.htm#e210202