Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 24-Mar-2021 World View: Trump's legacy A web site reader asked me to comment on an article on Trump's legacy. The following are excerpts from my response to him: The problem I'm having with this article is that it's making a number of political judgments that may seem true today, but which could turn out to be false at any time in the future, even a few months from now. Making these judgments is definitely not the domain of Generational Dynamics. Most likely, the only thing that will matter ten years from now is whether and how well the country survives the war with China. The current political nonsense will end with a "regeneracy event." This is a concept in generational theory, referring to an event that regenerates civic unity for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war. It's an event that presents a strong existential threat to the nation or society, and forces all sides to put aside their political differences and unite behind the leadership for the common survival. In 1941, it was the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March. Today, it might be a missile attack on an American city, or it might be a major military loss overseas. Today, it's most likely going to be whatever event triggers war with China. So if you take a look at the article, and evaluate the remarks in the context of a Chinese missile attack on the United States, then you can see that nothing that it says is something that anyone would care about. How will future historians evaluate Trump's presidency? Maybe they will praise him for increasing military spending. Of maybe they will condemn him for some policy that caused a Chinese advantage in a way that we don't yet even know about. These are the kinds of issues that I watch for and write about. The creation of a Stalinist state by the Democrats, mainstream media and Big Tech is probably the scariest domestic development in my lifetime. The mindless destruction of the country by the Biden administration in order to stay in power is heartbreaking. And yet, I can't really say whether Biden's policies will help or hurt during a war with China. For example, Biden's Open Borders policies is creating a massive cartel force in Mexico using children for sex or as slaves or drug mules. The Democrats are doing this because they assume that these abused children will vote for Democrats. How will these cartels act when there's a Chinese invasion? Trump is promising to launch a new "Trump Big Tech Platform" within the next 2-3 months, and he expects his 74 million supporters to become subscribers. That may be the next event that will define Trump's legacy. And then we might begin to see whether your article is relevant. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 25-Mar-2021 World View: North Korea launches two ballistic missiles, violating UN resolutions
North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on Thursday, in violation of UN resolutions. Earlier this week, North Korea fired two short-range missiles into the sea. Those launches were legal under UN resolutions, and were largely ignored by the US and its allies. However, the launch of ballistic missiles is a clear violation of UN resolutions, and will require a response from the Biden administration and other countries. The missiles landed outside Japan's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone and there have been no reports of harm caused to aircraft or ships. Both Japan and South Korea have lodged formal protests. The timing is interesting. Thursday is the day of Joe Biden's long awaited press conference, where he will take questions from reporters. In the past, Biden's handlers have carefully selected the questions in advance, and Biden simply read the answers from what appeared to be a notebook. Reporters will have many questions about the North Korea missile launch, but it will be interesting to see if most of them are censored and suppressed. ---- Sources: -- North Korea fires two ballistic missiles into Sea of Japan https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56518998 (BBC, 25-Mar-2021) -- First North Korean National Brought to the United States to Stand Trial for Money Laundering Offenses https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/first-north-korean-national-brought-united-states-stand-trial-money-laundering-offenses (DoJ, 24-Mar-2021) -- North Korea test-fires ballistic missiles in message to US https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-south-korea-north-korea-seoul-united-states-0b8258904540781fede5a4b2d2350a3a (AP, 25-Mar-2021) -- Reaction to North Korea's ballistic missile launch https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-quotebox-idUSKBN2BH068 (Reuters, 25-Mar-2021) -- Biden laughs off question about North Korean missile test https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2021/03/24/north-korea-missile-test-biden-reaction-sot-vpx.cnn (CNN, 24-Mar-2021) -- North Korea missile launch tests Biden administration and Tokyo Olympics https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/25/asia-pacific/north-korea-launch/ (JapanTimes, 25-Mar-2021) -- EXPLAINER: N. Korean missile tests follow same old playbook https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2021-03-25/explainer-n-korean-missile-tests-follow-same-old-playbook (AP, 25-Mar-2021)
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 25-Mar-2021 World View: Xenophobia today Bob Butler" Wrote:> World War II had strong racist and xenophobic elements. Count 6 You're fighting the last war. If there was xenophobia during WW II, then there's xenophobia on steroids today. One obvious example is the xenophobia that you and other Democrats feel towards the 74 million Trump supporters, to the extent of setting up Stalinist censorship, and discriminating against them in other ways. You, of all people, are in no position to deny the truth of that. But forget domestic xenophobia. The Chinese are full of xenophobia, racism and hatred -- toward the Japanese, toward the Filipinos, toward the Indians, toward the Russians. And don't forget the Uighurs, the Tibetans and the Taiwanese. And having just published a book on Vietnam, I can assure you it's also directed at the Vietnamese. So from China alone, the xenophobia is massive. Leaving China, there's Pakistan vs India, the Taliban vs ISIS, the Jews vs the Arabs, the Sunnis vs the Shias. As for the Holocaust, I've already pointed out that there are three Holocausts going on today, in China, in Burma and in Syria. So yeah, xenophobia is everywhere today. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 25-Mar-2021 World View: Predictions Cool Breeze" Wrote:> It will happen some time, but I don't know when. If I had to Since thousands of people have believed something similar for the last 2000 years, and they've all been proven wrong, you must have some reason to believe that "This time it's different." Do you have such a reason? Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I haven't written books and made predictions on the parousia, nor It's a good analogy because it provides a point of comparison. I guess your point is that the Second Coming is entirely a matter of faith, with no basis in reason or historical analogy. (Correct me if I'm wrong.) As an analyst, I would say that if 2000 years of predictions have all failed, then they're likely to fail for the next 2000 years, unless there's some reason to conclude otherwise. Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Are you admitting that you have religious devotion to your ideas Not at all. When I set up my web site in 2003, my expressly stated purpose is that I would post analyses and predictions, and leave them there for all to see. If they had been proven wrong, then no "religious devotion" would have helped. I would have dropped Generational Dynamics like a hot potato, and would probably have gone on to be a much happier person, with more friends. As things stand, those analyses and predictions have always been right, so I'm stuck. The prediction of a likely war with China is entirely analytical, for reasons I've posted many times. Briefly:
So the evidence for the Generational Dynamics prediction of war is entirely analytical, and has no "religious devotion" component at all. Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I read your Singularity article and it was interesting. I suspect I don't know what a "scientific materialist" is, but it sounds interesting. Have you read Tom Mazanec's short story on the Singularity? ** 'Maybe we'll get it right this time' by Tom Mazanec ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.mazanec090309.htm RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 26-Mar-2021 World View: Prediction guarantees Cool Breeze" Wrote:> If you have been predicting war since 2003, how have you "always OK, how about this. Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for new world war "soon." Analyzing trends, such as increasing nationalism and xenophobia in various countries, makes it appear that the world war will pit China vs US. It seems likely that it will begin in the next 3-4 years, but it may begin later, with the probability increasing with each year. As the saying goes, "it is what it is." I can provide more analysis to support those views, but I can't say, "war with China will begin on July 23, 2025." That's impossible. And you're wrong when you say I've been wrong, since I always use probabilistic language with indefinite timings. If I name a specific date, then it's a typo. If you'd like, search through my 2004 postings, and you'll find a place where I did name a date. I was just starting out, and that was a mistake, and I learned my lesson. Back in the early days, I did try to assign probabilities, based on data I'd collected. See the following: ** Six most dangerous regions in world (20-Nov-2004) ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.danger041120.htm If you read through to the end, then you'll find that I computed the probability of a crisis war in 2005 in one of the six dangerous regions to be about 21%: Code: 1 - (1-.0432)*(1-.0283)*(1-.0432)*(1-.0436)*(1-.0283)*(1-.0431) If it didn't happen in 2005, then the probability would go up a little bit each year. This approach didn't pan out, but it was an interesting approach to trying to analyze probabilities. I kept struggling with the concept of assigning probabilities. I wrote the following article out of frustration: ** A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a 'Nash equilibrium' (17-July-2006) ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.060717nash.htm I was trying to use a the concept of a "Nash equilibrium" to try to explain why you couldn't predict dates and probabilities. I pretty much gave up after this. Around that time, I started looking at incorporating the concepts of Chaos Theory into Generational Dynamics, and I developed the concept that the start of a war would be a "chaotic event in the sense of Chaos Theory," meaning that it could happen at any time, and would be triggered by some random, unpredictable event. (Just as a butterfly flapping its wings in China could cause a chain reaction leading to a hurricane in America.) And I developed the concept of a "trend value," something that's reasonably measureable, that grows worse with time, where the saying "If something can't go on forever, then it won't" applies. As time goes on, the probability that a random event will trigger the chaotic event increases with time (since the trend value is worsening). Here's an analogy: A forest fire (chaotic event) can start when a random spark (also a chaotic event) is applied to dry underbrush. When the underbrush is wet, then a random spark will have no effect. But as the underbrush dries out over time (trend value), then the probability that a random spark (chaotic event) can trigger a forest fire (chaotic event) increases with time. At some point, as the underbrush becomes dryer and dryer (trend value), and the probability that a random spark will start a forest fire increases, even the tiniest spark can trigger a forest fire. In the 1930s, tensions between Japan and China worsened constantly (trend value). In 1937, a random event (chaotic event) occurred where a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in the woods. This random event triggered World War II: The Japanese accused the Chinese of abducting him, and military actions began. It's interesting that once the chaotic event occurred, things happened very quickly. Within just a couple of months, the "Rape of Nanking" occurred, for example. Returning to the forest fire analogy, the underbrush must have been so dry that once a tiny fire started, it became a huge forest fire very rapidly. So today, I'm saying that the underbrush is very dry (trend value), as measured by rapidly increasing xenophobia and nationalism in many countries, and all it needs is the right random trigger, a chaotic event, to start a world war. And so: WW III could start tomorrow, or next week, or next year, or five years from now. It's impossible to predict when that will happen, but the underbrush gets dryer each day (trend value), and the probability that a random event will trigger a war grows every day. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 ** 26-Mar-2021 World View: David and Goliath in the Suez Canal
Salvage experts are now projecting that it will take one to three weeks to free the monster cargo ship Ever Given from the Suez Canal. The ship got wedged Tuesday in a single-lane stretch of the canal, about 3.7 miles north of the southern entrance, near the city of Suez. The name of the ship is Ever Given. It is owned by the Japanese firm Shoei Kisen KK. It is leased by a Taiwanese shipping company, the Evergreen. The blockade is holding up $10 billion of goods every day. Over 200 vessels are waiting near the canal, waiting to go through. In addition, more than 100 ships are en route, although many of these are now considering an alternate route, around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, adding 14 days to the trip. Various dredgers and tugs are heading to the region to try to help out. The US Navy is sending a team of dredging experts on Saturday. The tide is coming in on Monday, and they hope to refloat the Ever Given then. There's always the possibility that the Ever Given will break up, resulting in an even greater disaster. If all else fails, they'll have to try to remove some of the cargo, but that will require very specialized equipment and will take weeks.
--- Sources: -- The ship stuck in the Suez Canal — the Ever Given — is still there. Here's what we know about the mission to dislodge it https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-26/suez-canal-ever-given-cargo-ship-still-stuck-not-moving/100030284 (Australian Broadcasting, 26-Mar-2021) -- Ever Given / Maritime traffic jam grows outside blocked Suez Canal https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/mar/26/maritime-traffic-jam-grows-outside-blocked-suez-ca/ (AP, 26-Mar-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2021 *** 28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion **** Kim Jong-un and Joe Biden North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on Thursday, in violation of UN resolutions. The missiles landed outside Japan's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone and there have been no reports of harm caused to aircraft or ships. Both Japan and South Korea have lodged formal protests. The timing was interesting, because Thursday was the day of President Joe Biden's long awaited press conference, where it was promised that he would take questions from reporters. As expected, Biden's handlers carefully selected the questions in advance, from carefully chosen reporters, and the order in which they would be asked, so that all Biden had to do was follow along in a notebook on his podium and read the answers out loud. The reporters and questions were all fawning, such as referring to Biden "as a moral, decent man," and the Fox News reporter was carefully sidelined. There was one question where Biden seemed totally unprepared, and that was the question about North Korea's ballistic missile launch, which had just occurred several hours before the press conference. Biden looked down at the podium and read a prepared statement supplied by his handlers. Here's what he said: <QUOTE>"Let me say that, number one, U.N. Resolution 1718 was violated by those particular missiles that were tested — number one. We’re consulting with our allies and partners. And there will be responses — if they choose to escalate, we will respond accordingly. But I’m also prepared for some form of diplomacy, but it has to be conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization. So that’s what we’re doing right now: consulting with our allies."<END QUOTE> Denuclearization is a delusional fantasy, as I'll describe below. This is a reasonable statement, but if you watched the press conference, as I did, Biden didn't appear to understand what he was reading, and had a difficult time reading it. That portion of the press conference appears right at the beginning of the al-Jazeera video referenced below, so you can watch it and judge for yourself. You can blame me as a wild-eyed ideologue for saying that Biden appeared to be, at the least, cognitively challenged or worse, but my perception is not important. What's important is that leaders around the world were watching carefully and analyzing, and they know that Biden is mouthing words, but doesn't know what he's saying. To me, it was painful to watch, and almost cruel for his handlers to stand him up and put him and the country through that. Before proceeding with the analysis, I want to make it clear that it makes no difference what Biden said. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a powerful "March of History" going on here. As I've been saying for years, North Korea is on a path to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and nothing that Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump or Biden could say or do will stop it (short of a pre-emptive missile attack on all of North Korea's facilities, which Trump threatened, but which was never going to happen). Diplomacy is a worthless delusion in the March of History. **** **** Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program **** I now want to quote excerpts from the best analysis of the North Korea that I've seen in years (not counting some of my own). It appeared in the al-Jazeera show Inside Story, and you can watch the whole thing by following the link in the sources below. The analysis was done by Tariq Rauf, former head of Verification & Securiity Policy, at the IAEA, which is the United Nations nuclear inspection agency. He began by giving a summary of North Korea's current capabilities (my transcription): <QUOTE>"North Korea has one of the oldest nuclear programs in the world. It started in 1953 [right at the end of the Korean War]. They now have a complete nuclear fuel cycle -- uranium mining, uranium enrichment, enriching to reactor grade uranieum, also to weapons grade uranium, which is over 90%. They also have a plutonium separation capability. And they've obviously demonstrated that they can make nuclear warheads. They carried out six nuclear tests, and if one looks at the yields of the six nuclear tests, each one of them has been bigger than the previous one. The last test in 2017 was nearly 140 kilotons. And so North Korea, in its six tests, has demonstrated much more advanced nuclear weapons capability than India or Pakistan did so in 1998. Therefore it is a full program."<END QUOTE> He said that their missile program is equally advanced: "They also have a full suite of ballistic and cruise missiles. They have short range or battlefield missiles, they have medium range missiles, and they also have long range missiles." He added that their nuclear program is pretty much completed, and the only question left is the number of weapons they have in their arsenal. "We believe they have 30, 40 or 50 nuclear weapons, can apparently make 7 to 12 more per year per year." **** **** Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion **** For years, America and the United Nations have been using sanctions to try to convince the North Koreans to denuclearize. This was true under the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump administrations, and it's still true in the Biden administration, since Biden has not made any statement about removing the sanctions. During the al-Jazeera show, Tariq Rauf gave a lengthy discussion of why sanctions have absolutely no chance of succeeding: <QUOTE>"As for sanctions, nobody can point to a single case in history where sanctions have reversed their nuclear, chemical or biological weapons program in a country. Sanctions did not affect South Africa, Iraq, Iran, didn't stop India or Pakistan, and it's clear that they didn't stop North Korea. The leadership has shown in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and also North Korea that if the population has to tighten its belt, that's what they will do. And North Korea has also seen how Iraq, Libya and Iran have been squeezed because they didn't have nuclear weapons. Nobody threatens North Korea with an attack, nobody says all options are on the table, so North Korea knows. They also know that India and Pakistan have been accepted as [i]de facto nuclear weapons states."<END QUOTE>[/i] So Rauf makes it clear that North Korea's nuclear program is here to stay, and sanctions will do nothing. As I said, there is a March of History, and sanctions will not affect it. By the time the world war ends, every one of North Korea's nuclear weapons will be used somewhere -- on America, on Japan, on South Korea, on China, on Russia, or elsewhere. **** **** Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump **** Tariq Rauf also gives a comparison between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in handling the North Korea situation: <QUOTE>"Biden has already insulted the Russian president, the Chinese president, has insulted Kim Jong-Un as a Hitler and as a thug. How does he expect them to have a meaningful dialog? President Biden who is also known for rash decisions, and for insulting foreign leaders, needs also to be restrained. We criticize president Trump quite justifiably, but president Biden is no angel either. He's not going to wave a magic wand and things are going to fall into place."<END QUOTE> This gives rise to a comparison of the two negotiating styles, always keeping in mind that the March of History will be same, irrespective of the American president's negotiating style. As I described many times, I was initially quite contemptuous of Trump's lack of knowledge of the world, until the unexpected happened: He selected as his principal advisor Steve Bannon, who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics, as I worked with him off and on for several years. Bannon educated Trump on what was happening in China, South Korea and elsewhere, and Trump used that knowledge, combined with this own "Art of the Deal" skills, in his relations with foreign leaders. Thus, he developed a friendly father-son relationship with Kim Jong-un, and repeatedly complimented Xi Jinping as a great leader, although that changed dramatically in March 2020, when the CCP infuriated Trump by announcing that the coronavirus had been inserted into Wuhan province by the American army. At his press conference on Thursday, Joe Biden emphasized that he had a long relationship with China's president Xi Jinping: <QUOTE>"I’ve known Xi Jinping for a long time. Allegedly, by the time I left office as Vice President, I had spent more time with Xi Jinping than any world leader had, because President Obama and the Chinese President Hu decided we should get to know one another since it was inappropriate for the President of the United States to spend time with the vice president of another country. But it was obvious he was going to become the new leader of China. So, I spent hours upon hours with him alone with an interpreter — my interpreter and his — going into great detail. He is very, very straightforward. Doesn’t have a democratic — with a small “D” — bone in his body. But he’s a smart, smart guy. He’s one of the guys, like Putin, who thinks that autocracy is the wave of the future and democracy can’t function in an ever — an ever-complex world. So, when I was elected and he called to congratulate me, I think to the surprise of the China experts who were — his people were on call as well as mine, listening — we had a two-hour conversation. For two hours. .... And earlier this month — and apparently it got the Chinese’s attention; that’s not why I did it — I met with our allies and how we’re going to hold China accountable in the region: Australia, India, Japan, and the United States — the so-called Quad. Because we have to have democracies working together. Before too long, I’m going to have — I’m going to invite an alliance of democracies to come here to discuss the future. And so we’re going to make it clear that in order to deal with these things, we are going to hold China accountable to follow the rules — to follow the rules — whether it relates to the South China Sea or the North China Sea, or their agreement made on Taiwan, or a whole range of other things. .... And the third thing, and the thing that I admire about dealing with Xi is he understands — he makes no pretense about not understanding what I’m saying any more than I do him — I pointed out to him: No leader can be sustained in his position or her position unless they represent the values of the country. And I said as — “And, Mr. President, as I’ve told you before, Americans value the notion of freedom. America values human rights. We don’t always live up to our expectations, but it’s a values system. We are founded on that principle. And as long as you and your country continues to so blatantly violate human rights, we’re going to continue, in an unrelenting way, to call to the attention of the world and make it clear — make it clear what’s happening.” And he understood that. I made it clear that no American President — at least one did — but no American President ever back down from speaking out of what’s happening to the Uighurs, what’s happening in Hong Kong, what’s happening in-country. That’s who we are. The moment a President walks away from that, as the last one did, is the moment we begin to lose our legitimacy around the world. It’s who we are."<END QUOTE> Biden was making the point that he has a relationship with Xi Jinping, though apparently a fairly hostile one -- but that's better than no relationship. However, he has no similar relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin, whom he recently called a "killer," nor with Kim Jong-un, whom he has called a thug, a dictator and a tyrant. We have to mention that the Trump administration spoke out forcefully about human rights in China, and about the Uighurs. Biden's claim otherwise may be a lie, or more likely he doesn't know, since his handlers didn't bother to tell him. However, world leaders who watched Biden stumble through his press conference are well aware that he lied. (See "20-Jan-21 World View -- Pompeo bashes China over genocide, virus, Taiwan on last days of Trump administration" ) So it's not surprising that North Korea's media made a particularly harsh response to Biden's statement: <QUOTE>"We cannot but build invincible physical power for reliably defending the security of our state under the present situation in which south Korea and the U.S. constantly pose military threats to the Korean peninsula while persistently conducting dangerous war exercises and introducing advanced weapons. We express our deep apprehension over the U.S. chief executive faulting the regular testfire, exercise of our state's right to self-defence, as the violation of UN "resolutions" and openly revealing his deep-seated hostility toward the DPRK. Such remarks from the U.S. president are an undisguised encroachment on our state's right to self-defence and provocation to it. It is a gangster-like logic that it is allowable for the U.S. to ship the strategic nuclear assets into the Korean peninsula and launch ICBMs any time it wants but not allowable for the DPRK, its belligerent party, to conduct even a test of a tactical weapon. We clearly remember that after the appearance of the new administration in Washington there have been exploitation of every opportunity to make words and acts provoking the sovereignty and dignity of our state in which we were branded as the most serious "security threat". The bellicose stance of the new U.S. administration awakens us to the way to be followed by us and convinces us of the justice of the work to be done by us once again."<END QUOTE> It's worth remembering that North Korea is a vassal of Communist China. Kim Jong-un occasionally throws a temper tantrum and does something the CCP doesn't like, but basically Kim does as he's told. I consider it likely that the CCP gave Kim the OK for Thursday's ballistic missile launches. In my opinion, North Korea will not launch any military attacks without China's permission, and that means it will be done in coordination with China's invasion of Taiwan or Japan or an attack on the United States, at some point in the future. So that's the state of the relations between America and North Korea today. **** **** Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive **** I want to add a brief word about a different subject. The situation in Myanmar (Burma) is becoming toxic to the point of being close to explosive. Some 50-80 people peaceful protesters were killed on Saturday alone, with no provocation. These included children and even babies in their homes. The violence by the army is becoming horrific and unrestrained. Furthermore, other ethnic groups, including the Kachin and the Shan, are threatening to intervene unless the violence stops. Burma's generational crisis war was an extremely bloody multi-ethnic civil war following independence (1948-1958). It's been 65 years since the end of that civil war, and so Burma is due for a new one, and that appears to be happening. This is going to trigger large refugee flows into Thailand, India and China, so those countries may be brought into the war. Russia, incidentally, is supporting Burma's army, and so probably expects to gain from a Burma civil war. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Sea of Japan, March of History, Tariq Rauf, IAEA, China, Xi Jinping, Uighurs, South Africa, Iraq, Iran, India, Pakistan, Libya, Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden, Quad, Australia, India, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Myanmar, Burma, Thailand Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 03-28-2021 John, I think you had a good idea when you came up with the forest fire metaphor! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-28-2021 *** 29-Mar-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war **** Friday meeting between Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu and Myanmar's army leader Min Aung Hlaing to discuss Russia's support for the slaughter (Tass) Saturday was the deadliest day yet of violence by the Myanmar/Burma army since the February 1 military coup, and installation of a junta headed by army leader General Min Aung Hlaing. In cities across the country, some 80-100 peaceful protesters were killed on that day alone, with no provocation, as the violence by the army is becoming horrific and unrestrained. These included children and even babies in their homes. Hundreds of people have been killed, including a seven-year-old girl reportedly shot dead in her home this week. Soldiers have also occupied major public hospitals and attacked healthcare workers, including emergency responders trying to help injured protesters. According to reports, the security forces have occupied 36 hospitals around the country and, in some cases, patients have been evicted from these hospitals. (This is reminiscent of another war criminal, Syria's Bashar al-Assad, specifically targeting hospitals with missiles to prevent medical care.) **** **** The 'silent strike' threatens a complete economic and healthcare collapse **** Because peaceful street protests are being met with increasingly horrific violence by the army, protesters are trying a new tack -- a "silent strike." Starting Wednesday of last week, a growing number of public servants, bankers, and employees in other key industries are deserting their jobs en masse in a civil disobedience movement to demand an end to the violence. The junta has responded in the only way it knows how -- by going to the homes of the strikers and arresting them. Several hundred public servants and bankers have been arrested, according to reports. Many doctors and nurses at major public hospitals have joined a nationwide civil disobedience movement, which has severely constricted healthcare delivery. The result is that the public health system has come to a near standstill and the public health system teeters on the brink of collapse. **** **** As the violence increases, clashes with ethnic groups grow **** As the violence grows into full-scale civil war, there are now growing ethnic conflicts. On Sunday morning, army fighter jets launched air strikes against a region along the Thai border populated by the Karen ethnic group, killing eight people. As a result of the air strikes, at least 3,000 people fled across the border into Thailand. There are already more tha 7,500 refugees who have been living in refugee camps along the Thai-Burma border. The air strikes were in retaliation for attacks on the Burmese army by the Karen National Union (KNU) on Saturday. At least seven members of the military were captured. That was just the latest in a series of skirmishes between the KNU and the army since the February 1 coup, which the KNU opposed. The Karen have been persecuted throughout Burma's history. In 2004, a ceasefire between the Karen and the Burmese government was brokered, but human rights abuses continue, including forced labor, village burnings, arbitrary taxation, rape, and extrajudicial killings. 140,000 refugees from Burma, mostly Karen, are living in refugee camps in Thailand, some for as many as 20 years. Another ethnic group, the Kachin, have also been in clashes with government security forces. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) launched simultaneous attacks on at least four of the junta’s police battalions in a Kachin State township early on Sunday morning. Up to 20 policement were killed, and the KIA seized weaponry from the sites. This situation is growing into a repeat of Burma's last generational crisis war, an extremely bloody civil war (1948-1958) following independence, and involving multiple ethnic groups, along with intervention by the Chinese. According to the Generational Dynamics 58-Year Hypothesis, which by now has been well proven, a new ethnic civil war will not begin less than 58 years from the end of the previous ethnic civil war. That's because 58 years is precisely amount the time when the generations of survivors of the preceding all die or retire, all at once, and the younger post-war generations come to power. It has now been 63 years since the end of the last ethnic civil war, so Myanmar is fully ripe for a new ethnic civil war, and that seems to be what's happening. **** **** General Min Aung Hlaing thanks Russia for its support **** On Saturday, while Burma's army were slaughtering innocent Burmese people peacefully conducting pro-democracy protests against the February 1 coup, Burma's army held a massive parade and weapons exhibition to celebrate Armed Forces Day, which commemorates the army's rebellion in 1945 against Japanese occupation. At the ceremony, the army leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said that the military would protect the people and strive for democracy. Many countries in the international community had been expressing horror at the ongoing violence in Myanmar. And yet, despite the horrific ongoing violence, there were eight countries that sent representatives to join Hlaing in the celebrations: Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. During his speech, Hlaing singled out one of these eight countries -- Russia. He welcomed the presence of the Russians at the ceremony and said, "Russia is a true friend," having previously referred to Moscow as a "loyal friend." And indeed, Russia is a friend to war criminal Hlaing. Russia has been a leading supplier of weapons to Burma's army. If you see armored vehicles on the streets of Myanmar in videos, those vehicles were almost certainly supplied by the Russians. **** **** Conflicting strategies of Russia versus China in Myanmar **** In Western media, Russia and China are often portrayed as having similar relationships to Myanmar. This largely comes from the fact that Russia and China jointly veto any attempt in the United Nations Security Council to condemn Myanmar for its war crimes and genocidal violence. However, from Myanmar's point of view, the two countries are quite different. Russia is geographically remote, while China shares a long border. This means that Russia is simply a weapons provider, and really doesn't how the slaughter in Myanmar evolves. General Hlaing has cultivated defense ties with Moscow over the past decade to avoid dependence on China, which is Myanmar's largest weapons supplier. But the situation is much more complex for China. China is heavily involved in building Myanmar's infrastructure, including a joint construction project to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The CMEC focuses on 12 areas including basic infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, finance, human resource development and telecommunications. Thus, it is critical for China that the Myanmar people not blame the Chinese for the ongoing violence. There have already been attacks on Chinese factories by groups claiming that the Chinese are supporting the army violence. That's why the Russians are able to express open support for the army, while the Chinese are holding back, waiting to see what happens. The Russians couldn't care less how many innocent civilians are slaughtered, and don't care if they're blamed for it in some way. The Chinese don't care either, but they have business interests in Myanmar that outweigh any other considerations. **** **** Irony and Karmic retribution **** Buddhists are into Karma, and so it must have occurred to many of them in Myanmar that there a great deal of irony in the the country's situation, as well as Karmic retribution. Since 2011, Burma's army has been committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, and I've written many articles about this. The atrocities included gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. These atrocities have been cheered by the ordinary Myanmar people, most of whom apparently hate the Rohingyas. Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a "useful idiot" for the army by presenting a sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world, defending the army to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their country. In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague held a trial on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and defended the army, saying that nothing had happened. So now, the worm has turned, as the old saying goes. The army had no more use for the useful idiot Aung Sang Suu Kyi, so she's now in jail. The horrors and atrocities that the army perpetrated on the Rohingyas are now being perpetrated on Buddhist civilians. That is truly Karmic justice. I saw a Burma citizen being interviewed on the BBC about the violence. He was asked about the Rohingyas, and asked how he felt about the genocide and ethnic cleansing that went on. He said that he couldn't speak out for the Rohingyas when the genocide was going on because he would have been punished. But now, he says, the Rohingyas are his beloved "brothers," and he welcomes their return to the country. It makes you want to vomit, doesn't it. I've been around a long time, and I've learned to believe in Karma. People who do evil things eventually become the victims of their own evil. It's sometimes phrased as "what goes around comes around," meaning that the evil circles back to the evildoer. There's no easy explanation, except that people who are evil do stupid things, and their stupid evil acts catch up with them. I've seen this many, many times in my life, and the Karmic retribution going on in Myanmar today is one of the best examples I've ever seen. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, China, Russia, Karen ethnic group, Karen National Union, KNU, Kachin, Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Aung Sang Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Karmic retribution Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-28-2021 ** 28-Mar-2021 World View: Forest fires (03-28-2021, 06:01 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > John, I think you had a good idea when you came up with the forest Yes, I agree. I'm planning on expanding it. It works a lot better than the straw breaking the camel's back metaphor. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-01-2021 *** 2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion **** A trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine earlier this week The US armed forces European Command has raised its threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis" -- because of growing reports of trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including aircraft, tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery and ground troops, headed toward the border with Ukraine. In 2014, Russia troops invaded Ukraine in support of Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The purpose was to break off the entire eastern portion of Ukraine and annex it to the Russian Federation. That didn't happen, but Russia also invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and annexed it and made it part of the Russian federation. It's been assumed that Russia has wanted to complete the job of annexing eastern Ukraine, and there are concerns the Russians plan to do exactly that right now. Russia may have decided to strike now because of the new Biden administration in Washington. Last Thursday press conference by Biden was undoubtedly analyzed closely by the Kremlin, and it was clear that Biden has no idea what's going on. In addition, the world can see that the Biden administration has completely lost control of its southern border. The Kremlin analysts may have decided that it would take a long time for the Biden administration to do anything, if the Biden administration did anything, and that therefore they can invade Ukraine with impunity. (See "28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion" .) **** **** Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine **** Russia's mealy-mouthed spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a statement saying that there's nothing to see here: <QUOTE>"Russian Federation is moving its troops within its territory, at its own discretion. Nobody should be concerned about it. It poses no threat to anyone."<END QUOTE> At this point, it's worthwhile to make a list of previous Russian lies related to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine:
According to US estimates, Russia has about 32,700 military personnel in Crimea, some 28,000 personnel in "separatist" units in areas of eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbass who have been fighting the government in Kiev since 2015. A member of the Generational Dynamics forum, Navigator, an expert on military history, says: <QUOTE>"You do not move this kind of stuff [tanks and armored vehicles] around unless you mean to use it. Russia wants the traditional Ukraine back. This is up to the line of Odessa/Vinnetsa. They will probably allow Ukraine to remain in what was once the Austro-Hungarian province of Galicia, centered around the city of Lvov. Given Europe's current state, plus a weak US administration, they know they will be able to get away with this. My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics. Going after the Baltics will require a NATO response. But my guess is that they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade him. He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the Baltics. This is my guess."<END QUOTE> So now more Russian troops ("volunteers?") are headed for the border with Ukraine, and Peskov says, "Nobody should be concerned about it." However, the Pentagon is concerned about it, as evidenced by the rise in the threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis." According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby: "We obviously don’t want to see any more violations of Ukrainian territory. We’ve been very clear about the threats that we see from Russia across domains ... we’re taking them very seriously." Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Donbas, European Command, EUCOM, Crimea, Dmitry Peskov, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Buk 9M38 missile, John Kirby Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-02-2021 Solutions for Burma: 1. It must greatly shrink its military. Not since Thug Japan has there been a sizable country so much under the thrall of its armed forces that the People need to be relived of it. We all know how the Japanese Armed Forces were reduced in size and influence, and under what conditions. The only good thing I can say about the Burmese Army is that it has never committed an act of aggression that could start a dangerous war. A country nearly surrounded by two superpowers (China and India) and a significant power in Thailand must act with due care. It would be extremely unwise to mess with India in part because India has one of the best intelligence networks in existence. Apparently it got much of its training from the Israeli Mossad. Under a dictatorship that bleeds and beats people with impunity, any invader can find itself with fifth columns quickly at its disposal at low cost for the invader or occupier. "Treat us well" may be enough. 2. Burma needs to become more of a free-market society. "Barracks socialism" is good for empowering the Armed Forces and keeping people obedient, but that is about all that it is "good" for. 3. Give control over the land of the Rohingya Muslims to Bangladesh. I cannot imagine any better result. Microstates fare badly unless they are super-prosperous (let us say Luxembourg).i RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-03-2021 (03-27-2021, 09:49 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Mar-2021 World View: Trump's legacy As with Strauss and Howe, one has at most generalities about the powerful tendencies in histories that follow cyclical patterns without expressing the details. The details are either how the "little people" do about overwhelming realities (such as machine-gun fire, ecological catastrophes, economic meltdowns, or dangerous epidemics) or the quirks of the Great Men (and hyper-villains) of history. Some people fulfill their roles well (Sir Winston Churchill); some bungle them badly (Alexander Kerensky), and some fail due to their own vices (pick a high-level Nazi -- any high-level Nazi!). We can compare our contemporaries in a Crisis Era to the other leaders... and as I saw movies from this Crisis Era about Abraham Lincoln and Sir Winston Churchill and tried to figure out how Donald Trump would face analogous challenges to the survival of the orders for which Lincoln and Churchill stood, I could see Donald Trump coming up far short. Okay, okay, okay. We all have our preconceptions of what can work and what cannot... and what, even if successful for immediate objectives leads only to larger calamities. Donald Trump is a textbook example of a pathological narcissist, and although nearly all successful politicians have higher-than-average levels of narcissism, the effective ones can rein it in, at least on the public stage, when such is necessary. Many of us men might have pornographic fantasies, but we know enough that we cannot have a "casting couch" for subordinates (Harvey Weinstein), do date rape (Bill Cosby), or show self-made porn to our associates (which will likely take down Representative Matt Gaetz if something else related doesn't). Donald Trump is intellectually hollow, which makes him especially prone to being taken in by someone who knows how to press the right buttons on his personality. We've all read some Freud, have we not? One cannot understand any time after the start of the twentieth century without applying Freudian thought to him. In that light, Trump looks really, really bad. Good people do not mock the handicapped. Good people do not burn others in business dealings. A truly-good businessman tries to make others do repeat business, which distinguishes someone like Ray Kroc (McDonald's). Akio Morita (Sony), or Sam Walton (Wal-Mart) from Donald Trump. The best businessmen leave their customers in better condition than they were in before making the deals. Fleeces are good for one profitable, one-sided transaction after which one needs another to replace someone who can never be a customer again. I have seen him on the commercial stage for most of his adult life, and I never saw anything about him that made me want to have any dealing with him. So much about him is cringe-worthy, including his inability to recognize a failure when it happens as such (good people learn from their mistakes), his expressions of ethnic and religious bigotry (obsolete and dangerous), his quickness to anger, his serial divorces, his connections to gangsters, his sadistic streak, his steadfast allegiance to falsehoods that have since proved "inoperable" (as one Watergate figure called such a lie), and a lack of faith in anything other than himself. Involvement with a porn star? Now that is reckless. I look at the virtues that I associate with political figures at their best, and I instead see cruelty, selfishness, hollowness, bigotry, deceit, greed, and irresponsibility. Were I in the position of hiring someone for a job with responsibility toward others, then those traits would cause me to give a resolute NO! to the proposition. Quote:Most likely, the only thing that will matter ten years from now is Or perhaps averting a war. I can think of two regimes that I would gladly feed to the Panda. One is the military regime in Burma. The other -- you will see soon enough. Quote:In 1941, it was the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan Death March. North Korea. with leadership far more brutal and erratic, seems far more dangerous than the People's Republic of China. The official position of the PRC is its desire for a nuclear-free Korea. North Korea at the least is hemmed in by dangerous powers . one of which (China) could destroy the regime. Any two of the others (Japan, South Korea, and Russia) could also do so. Xi Jinping has some cause for caution in dealings with other countries. The Emperor-in-all-But-Name of North Korea has no caution. Quote:So if you take a look at the article, and evaluate the remarks in the Many foreign leaders who could not rely upon him to do the right thing (Angela Merkel is about as blatant an example as is possible) chose to wait him out, expecting him to be defeated in the upcoming election. Xi Jinping, who could not make a coherent deal with him, made none. Donald Trump is simply too erratic. Maybe one pulls off fait-accompli after another upon an inattentive leader. Donald Trump is not a hands-on leader unless his ego or personal assets or indulgence is at stake. Good leaders can make personal sacrifices for something bigger, at the least as an example for others in a rough time. Quote:These are the kinds of issues that I watch for and write about. The As it is inappropriate to compare someone to Adolf Hitler unless showing some of the salient characteristics of Hitler's ideology or practice, like racism, mass murder, racism, militarism, despotism, and the personality cult it is unfair and inappropriate to compare someone who does not do what Stalin did to the vile tyrant himself. Then again, I see far more warning signs in Donald Trump than in any prior President or his one successor. Yes, I know -- 74 million people voted for Trump in 2020 despite all that went wrong under him, so after he is off the political stage someone with a similar ideology but fewer troublesome eccentricities and much more political savvy might get elected. This sort of figure has supporters who want super-cheap labor, lax regulation, low taxes on themselves, Big Government that serves their interests that the Common Man pays for but gets little from except for threats, the destruction of labor unions, and privatization on the cheap of government assets to be managed by monopolistic exploiters. That Donald Trump was able to egg people on into breaking into the Capitol building to disrupt the formality of recognizing his electoral defeat indicates the level of fanaticism among some people on the Hard Right. The people who broke into the Capitol building were not dregs of society, like addicts, lunatics, the mentally-retarded, and hardened criminals. Many were people who seemed mainstream enough before January 6. These people did not become losers until January 6, when they lost their credibility and put their positions and assets at grave risk. Quote:And yet, I can't really say whether Biden's policies will help or hurt These children are coming almost entirely from countries poorer and less stable than Mexico. Those countries have internal violence fueled by by funds that came from American addicts whose purchases become blood money. You can be sure that the INS does check for drugs in possession... and many of those children have good cause to hate drugs. America has plenty of people to take them in and guide them -- a large and well-entrenched Mexican-American community that does much well. Mexican-Americans "underuse" drugs and even smoke less than other Americans. I see no reason for these children to grow up to be supporters of the PRC in a struggle with the USA. Quote:Trump is promising to launch a new "Trump Big Tech Platform" within The legacy that Trump has left is that 81 million people voted against him, and that even after he was defeated he disgraced his Presidency with his promotion of an insurrection. His approval numbers were short of what was necessary go get re-elected even after a spirited and competent campaign, or at least one in which the opponent had the metaphoric hands tied behind his back. He got close, even miraculously close, to winning a re-election. He scared me when I saw images of Chevrolet Suburban vehicles with a US flag and a Trump banner letting out people who harassed protesters. Like or dislike Antifa, that is how one of the aspects of a dictatorship emerges: a secret police. Trump got his supporters to commit crimes on his behalf and even risk their lives of death from a pandemic, the response to which he bungled severely. He refused to advocate any lockdown at all. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-08-2021 *** 9-Apr-21 World View -- The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit **** Hijacked cars burn at the Peace Wall as rioting broke out in West Belfast, Northern Ireland on Wednesday (AP) The last week in Belfast, Northern Ireland, has seen the worst ethnic street violence in decades. There is a concrete "Peace Wall" in Belfast, separating the two warring neighborhoods. People have been lobbing bricks and Molotov cocktails across the Peace Wall in both directions. The violence worsened when the gate in the Peace Wall was smashed open. At least 55 police officers have been injured over several nights of rioting. The violence has been triggered by the consequences of the Brexit deal that took the United Kingdom (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) out of the European Union. There were many difficult issues that had to be resolved, but the most intractable was the fact that Northern Ireland is part of the UK, while the Republic of Ireland (Southern Ireland) is part of the EU. This is the only place (if you don't count Gibraltar) where there is a land border separating the UK and the EU after Brexit. So the biggest deal in the Brexit negotiations was that Ireland and Northern Ireland must have a "frictionless border," so that people and goods could pass freely back and forth without customs and border checks. So a Spanish company that wants to ship goods to England without paying British tariffs could simply trans-ship them through Northern Ireland -- that is, ship them to Ireland, send them across the "frictionless border" to Northern Ireland, and then ship them across the Irish Sea to England. Similarly, an English firm could ship goods to Spain by trans-shipping in the opposite direction, and avoid paying EU tariffs. Well, that could never work. No politician is going to voluntarily give up tariffs. So the solution is that there has to be a "customs border in the Irish Sea." So goods shipped back and forth between England and Northern Ireland now have to go through customs and result in tariff charges. During the Brexit negotiations, politicians said that if there were a customs check between Northern Ireland and Ireland, then this would infuriate the "Catholic republicans," and would trigger a revival of "The Troubles," the three decades violence in Northern Ireland. So they did it the other way, and put in a customs check in the Irish Sea, and this has infuriated the "Protestant loyalists," and this is triggering a revival of The Troubles anyway. **** **** Brief generational history of violence in the Isle of Ireland **** Northern Ireland's indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually Catholic, republican, nationalist, "green") have been at war with the descendants of invading English and Scottish people (usually Protestant, loyalist, unionist, "orange") off and on since the 1400s. The Republicans want Northern Ireland to merge with the Republic of (Southern) Ireland, while the Loyalists want to remain loyal to the British crown and have Northern Ireland remain in the UK. There have been clashes between the two groups since the 1400s, but the most important pattern of wars was set by the Nine Years War (1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics attempted to overthrow English rule. The result was the Plantation of Ulster, which Gaelics today refer to as genocide and "ethnic cleansing," because the British drove the Gaelics from their land, took it over as landlords, and used the Gaelics as servants. The next crisis war for Northern Ireland was the Williamite-Jacobite war, climaxing in a victory of the British with the Battle of the Boyne on July 12, 1690. This was the date of the victory of Protestant William of Orange over the Catholic King James II, and it followed England's Glorious Revolution of 1688, where the Dutch Prince William "invaded" England and overthrew King James without firing a shot. Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to increase as July 12 approaches, as it's commemorated by groups like the Protestant Orange Institution. The border across Ireland first appeared in 1921 as a result of the British-Irish treaty that partitioned the island and ended the Irish War of Independence, with the new borderline running across farms and villages. **** **** The beginning of 'The Troubles' **** "The Troubles" began in 1969, when hostilities broke out in Northern Ireland, and the border was reinforced with British Army watchtowers and bomb-proof and mortar-proof inspection facilities. All of those reinforcements were removed as a result of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, with a new power-sharing accord that was supposed to break down some of the barriers between south and north, including the physical barrier at the border. The "Good Friday Agreement" has achieved almost mythic status among politicians, and its terms were frequently cited during the Brexit negotiations as inviolable, lest The Troubles begin again. The result was the "frictionless border" between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but instead there's a customs border between Northern Ireland and England, and The Troubles seems to be starting again anyway. There's a lot of finger-pointing now as to the cause of the new violence, with many people blaming Boris Johnson for his "betrayal" of the Northern Ireland loyalists. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the revival of The Troubles is not surprising, inasmuch as a full generation has passed since the Good Friday agreement, and young kids are not going to care about a piece of paper or an ancient agreement that was signed before many of them were even born. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Troubles, Northern Ireland, Belfast, Ireland, Republic of Ireland, England, Wales, Scotland, European Union, Catholic, Protestant, Gaelics, Nine Years War, Plantation of Ulster, Williamite-Jacobite war, Battle of the Boyne, Glorious Revolution, Good Friday Agreement Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-09-2021 I seem to recall someone mentioning that Ireland is in a 2T. Is that correct? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-09-2021 ** 09-Apr-2021 World View: Ireland generational era (04-09-2021, 09:07 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > I seem to recall someone mentioning that Ireland is in a 2T. Is Ireland's last generational crisis war was the Irish War of Independence (1919-1921). Thus it would seem that Ireland should be deep into a Fifth Turning -- like Mexico, Turkey, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Russia. However, WW II was extremely devastating, and caused a full or partial "First Turning reset" in many countries, and that's true of Ireland. "The Troubles" was not a war, but 2nd-3rd Turning generational conflict, with street riots complicated by the combination of conflict between the generations and the ethnic conflict between Gaelics and British. So Ireland's generational era is tied into the generational timeline of the UK and the EU, and has characteristics of a Fourth Turning and Fifth Turning. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-10-2021 ** 09-Apr-2021 World View: We're shocked!! China puts Americas, Brits, etc., on a watchlist Politicians and reporters are expressing shock and surprise to learn that, of all things, the Chinese are collecting personal information on anyone who visits China, and storing it in their database. Ohmigod, how horrible! How could those nice Chinese be doing something so awful? Actually, as regular readers know, I've been writing about China's monster "social credit system" database for years. That database is keeping track of every Chinese citizen. It collects data from online transactions, from bus trips, from street surveillance cameras, and so forth. Any interaction of the internet with a citizen generates a record that's merged with information about that citizen in the social credit system database. Based on that data, people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the one-party state, or even whether they'll be allowed to a purchase train ticket. The particular focus has been on tracking Uighurs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang Province). Using this database, the Chinese can quickly round up Uighurs for "re-education camps," where they're beaten, tortured, raped, sterilized, and enslaved. So now Australian activists have obtained a leaked database, apparently a part of the social credit system database, and it's discovered that any Westerner who visits China -- tourists, executives, wives, children -- all go into the same database. And this discovery is producing shock waves. This is hardly a surprise. The Chinese regularly hack into private and government databases in countries around the world, as well as personal iPhones, and collect data on every person, so that they can collect military and commercial intelligence to use in preparation for the coming war. However, this new development is suddenly scaring a lot of idiots who thought the nice people in China's military would never do something so awful. This issue is gathering steam, and may come to a head in the next few months. Of particular concern is the 2022 Olympics in China. If China has its way, then thousands of people from around the world will visit China, and China will collect a vast trove of personal information about them. This realization may affect whether the West decides to boycott China's Olympics. The first shot may already have been fired last week when the North Koreans said that they would boycott the upcoming Olympics in Japan in a couple of months. NOTA BENE: If you DO visit China, for any reason, understand that your phone will be confiscated long enough to steal data and plant a spy malware program. THEREFORE: If you MUST visit China, then leave your phone at home and get a burner phone. Take that with you to China, and then throw it out (or disinfect it) when you return home. ---- Sources: -- China keeping a top-secret watchlist of US travelers — from celebs to everyday folks https://nypost.com/2021/04/07/china-keeps-watchlist-that-includes-hundreds-of-us-travelers/ (NY Post, 7-Apr-2021) -- Australians flagged in Shanghai security files which shed light on China's surveillance state and monitoring of Uyghurs https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-01/shanghai-files-shed-light-on-china-surveillance-state/100040896 (Australian Broadcasting, 1-Apr-2021) -- Exclusive: British citizens routinely being placed on Chinese police watchlist https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/31/exclusive-british-citizensroutinely-placed-chinese-police-watchlist/ (Telegraph, London, 31-Mar-2021) ----------- Related article: ** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190127.htm#e190127 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-10-2021 *** 11-Apr-21 World View -- Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military **** Burmese soldiers in Shan State after an attack by ethnic groups in 2019 (AFP) An alliance of ethnic armies in Myanmar / Burma on Saturday attacked a military police station in Shan State, killing at least 10 policemen. The attackers were from an alliance that includes the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Normally, these ethnic groups oppose each other, and occasionally fight each other, but this is the first time that they've allied, in the face of the army coup, which makes this very significant. As we've been expecting, the Myanmar / Burma military crackdown on peaceful civilian protesters, following the coup that replaced the democratically elected government with a dictatorial military junta, is rapidly turning into a full scale civil war, involving multiple ethnic groups. This situation is growing into a repeat of Burma's last generational crisis war, an extremely bloody civil war (1948-1958) following independence, and involving multiple ethnic groups, along with intervention by the Chinese. This attack on the police station outpost in Shan State seems to me to have special significance, in view of the genocide and ethnic cleansing of the ethnic Rohingyas in previous years. **** **** Repeating the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas **** Starting in 2011, Buddhists began attacking Muslim Rohingyas in villages across Burma, particularly the 1.1 million ethnic Rohingyas in Rakhine State. Mobs of Buddhists attacked Muslims, conducting atrocities including torture and rape, killing hundreds and forcing hundreds of thousands to leave their homes to flee from the attacks. In some cases, the Buddhists burned down entire Rohingya villages to the ground. However, the most horrific Buddhist violence against the Rohingyas began after August 25, 2017, when Rohingya insurgents carried out a series of coordinated attacks against 30 Burma police outposts and an army base. Using knives, some guns and homemade explosives they killed at least a dozen Burmese security force members. The army responded with a sweep of violence against Rohingyas, causing thousands of them to flee their villages and head for the Bangladesh border, where they hoped to cross and reach a refugee camp. The Burmese army shot them as they were fleeing, including women and children, killing dozens. The attack on the police posts was the beginning of mass genocide and ethnic cleansing. This is a standard pattern used by genocidal autocrats. I've described how this works in detail in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook" . Autocratic regimes use an isolated terrorist incident as an excuse to conduct a massive overreaction against an entire group. In America, the Democrats are using the January 6 incident to declare that all 74 million Trump supporters are racists, white supremacists and terrorists, and are using that as an excuse for massive censorship and extrajucicial arrests. So in Myanmar, we now have a situation similar to the one on August 25, 2017, when Rohingyas attacked police outposts. Saturday's attack by ethnic groups -- the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army -- could well bring about a repeat of what happened to the Rohingyas. We should know within the next few days. The unifying of different ethnic groups is being described as highly significant by analysts. Over the decades, since the last crisis war, the Burmese military has been able to deal with the different ethnic groups separately, and after the February 1 coup, the military negotiated with each one to keep them out of the fighting. But now it's clear that has failed, and we can expect all out war with the ethnic groups. These groups are on the border with China, and there are many people of Chinese ancestry living in Shan State. So this may be the trigger that leads to intervention by the Chinese, although the Chinese will not intervene unless events force them to. **** **** War with the Karen ethnic group on the Myanmar / Thailand border **** As a separate issue, Burmese regime fighter jets have been dropping bombs on ethnic Karens in territory controlled by the Karen National Union (KNU), as we reported last week. The Karens are the largest ethnic group in Burma. The bombing began on March 27 and has continued almost every day. It was triggered by an attack by the KNU on a military barracks outpost, killing 20. Some 10,000 Karens have fled across the border into Thailand to escape the violence. This is not new. In the 1990s, a war between the preceding Burmese military junta and the Karens led to some 100,000 refugees in camps along the border between the two countries. This has caused a political problem for the Thai government, which is also led by a military junta that overthrew a democratically elected government in 2014. (See the following: "23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites" ) Thailand's last generational crisis war (the Cambodian Killing Fields war) climaxed in 1979, so Thailand is in a generational Unraveling era, with little chance of a new ethnic civil war at this time. (Burma, of course, is well into a generational Crisis era.) Therefore, Thailand's coup did not lead to civil war, but Burma's coup is doing so. So the thousands of refugees pouring into Thailand present a problem for the Thai military junta, who basically are aligned with the Burmese military junta. So even though Thai prime minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha has assured that "human rights will be respected," the result is that many of the Karen civilians fleeing violence by crossing the border into Thailand are being pushed back into Myanmar by the Thai police. There are also refugees pouring into India and China. **** **** Peaceful protests continue in cities across Myanmar, heading for catastrophe **** There were peaceful protests in multiple cities across Myanmar on Saturday, with large marches in Yangon and Mandalay. This despite the fact that on Friday, 80 peaceful protesters were killed by the army in random gunfire in the city of Bago, near Yangon. The army had thought that escalating violence would cause the protests to fizzle out, as they did in 2007, during Burma's generational Unraveling era. But they're not going to fizzle out now. News reports from Myanmar these days are just filled with more details about the army slaughtering innocent unarmed civiians. Analysts say that the solution is for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution, which is hilariously laughable. Others say that the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) should hold a meeting, which is also laughable. I heard one analyst say that the United States has to intervene militarily to stop the carnage. That guy must have been hopped up on some of the drugs currently pouring into the USA through the open southern border. Both Russia and China are supplying weapons to the Burmese junta, and neither country would be willing to take any step to end the carnage. So the bottom line is this: I cannot think of a scenario, nor have I read or heard of a scenario, that will stop the violence in Myanmar / Burma from escalating into a full-scale multi-ethnic civil war in the next few days, weeks and months. Like a Greek tragedy, the characters in this play are heading unstoppably into catastrophe. After that, the only question is whether it will spread to other countries, and whether it will be the trigger that leads to a new world war. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing, Thailand, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, China, Russia, Karen ethnic group, Karen National Union, KNU, Shan State, Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army Aung Sang Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Bago, Yangon, Mandalay, Association of Southeast Nations, ASEAN, Greek Tragedy Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-11-2021 ** 11-Apr-2021 World View: China's Uighur problem Guest Wrote:> The Turks cut the water supply to the Chinese embassy on John Wrote:> ***** Turkey Cuts Water Supply To Chinese Embassy After China Attacks DaKardii Wrote:> Keep in mind that this is a feud between the CCP and the municipal This is interesting because you've described the issue from Turkey's point of view, while from China's point of view, this is part of a growing political disaster. Consider the following: Erdogan has nothing to do with this, as you say, even though the Chinese Communists are arresting, beating, torturing, sterilizing, raping, and enslaving millions of Muslim Turkic people -- the Uighurs -- Erdogan's people. How is that possible? But this crisis erupted despite Erdogan's desires, and because the Chinese Communists cannot tolerate even a mention of the Uighur enslavement. So several minor Turkish politicians criticized China's Uighur policy. Instead of simply ignoring these "nobody" politicians, the infuriated Communists in Ankara's Chinese embassy had a hysterical response: Quote: "The Chinese side resolutely opposes and strongly What the hell was the Chinese embassy talking about? So no "person or power" is permitted to criticize any of China's policies? Are you kidding me? So the embassy responded with what many people thought was a threat, and this infuriated a lot of Turkish people, leading to the shutdown of the Embassy's water supply. So here's the problem for the Chinese Communist government:
So this puts the Chinese Communists into an impossible situation, since they can threaten, extort and bribe individual governments, but they can't do the same to every person in the world who might speak out. There's another angle to this: censorship. Are the diplomats in the Ankara embassy even aware of China's enslavement of the Uighurs? In America, most Democrats are totally ignorant of many things that have been going on, because they depend solely on mainstream media that reports only what the Democrats want people to know. Last year, individual Democrats were totally ignorant of the antifa-blm violence in multiple cities, the Hunter Biden laptop, and the massive voter fraud in the election. This year, they're totally ignorant of the massive humanitarian catastrophe on the southern border, where young people are being packed together in "pods," where Covid is spreading without control, and where rape and sexual assault are common. Both sides of all of these issues were reported continually on Fox News, but unless a Democrat watches Fox News, he's aware of only the narrow censored version of the news that the mainstream media provide. So I'm speculating that the same thing is true for the Chinese diplomats in the Ankara embassy. Do they ever read/watch the BBC? I assume not, since the BBC is banned in China, and the BBC's Beijing correspondent John Sudworth was recently forced to flee with his family to Taiwan for their safety. So it's doubtful that the Chinese diplomats are aware of China's Uighur policy, and they probably only read the "Chinese mainstream media," which means state-sponsored media like People's Daily. So the Chinese Communists are making the same kinds of hysterical statements about the BBC as the American Democrats are saying about Fox News. The Chinese Communists hate the BBC for the same reason that the Democrats hate Fox News -- for telling the truth about news they want censored. So that might partially explain the hysterical response by the Ankara embassy. These people have no clue what's going on in China, just as most Democrats have no clue what's going on in America, and so when the Turkish politicians complained about China's Uighur policy, they may have thought that the Turkish politicians really were lying. In America, the Chinese face a similar problem. Many Republicans are talking about China's horrific Uighur policy, but this is censored by the mainstream media that Democrats read. So you have this bizarre situation where Major League Baseball is condemning Georgia for a law they haven't even read, but they're perfectly comfortable being in bed with the Chinese Communists killing democracy in Hong Kong and enslaving millions of Uighurs. If we look at trends, the Uighur issue has been getting more prominent all the time. I've been writing about it for years, but the public worldwide didn't care. Now it's becoming increasingly discussed in America, and in the UK and Australia it's become a major political issue. I beieve that it will be a major political issue in America before long, like the UK and Australia, especially as the Beijing Olympics approaches. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-12-2021 *** 13-Apr-21 World View -- Investing in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contracts This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Investing in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contracts **** How Smart Contracts Work (Deccan Herald) I've been asked about investing in the crypto-currency (Bitcoin) related technologies, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contracts, which use the same internet-based blockchain technology as Bitcoin. For over a decade, crypto currencies have been the highly stylish, fashionable rock star finance technology, but lately they've been losing their glamor and lustre as compared to a newer technology, "decentralized finance" (DeFi) and "smart contracts." It was just a few years ago that people were saying that the world was just a stone's throw away from having a universal currency (Bitcoin) that was independent of any nation. Last week, I read one analyst saying, "We are a stone’s throw away from the global financial industry running on a common software infrastructure." Well, that stone would have to land something like 20-30 or more years in the future, and if humans haven't figured out how to do it by then, then perhaps our computer overlords will do it for us. What's happening now is that there's an explosion of financial applications and services, normally provided by banks, brokers, and other financial institution, that are now being provided on blockchain platforms as "smart contracts." There are really an unlimited number of possible apps and services -- insurance, lending, borrowing, asset management, gaming, day trading, savings, payments, billing, and so forth. Smart contracts are "self-executing," meaning that once a particular smart contract is set up, any action that would normally be taken by a human intermediary in a bank or financial institution would now be executed automatically by the smart contract. Another way of looking at it is to compare a smart contract to workflow software that has been around since the 90s. The software is set up with a set of workflow rules, and the appropriate conditions specified by the rules are satisfied, then the workflow software sends out e-mail messages to the appropriate people, telling them to take the appropriate action. DeFi applications are more powerful because typically they have control of crypto assets, so when the right conditions are met, the app does not send out an e-mail saying "buy a new car." Instead, it automatically issues the paperwork to buy a new car. There are several ways to invest in DeFi technology. You can set up a financial relationship with someone else using a smart contract. Or you could invest in companies that develop these apps or offer services using this technology. The following web site provides a pretty extensive list of companies offering such apps and services at the current time: https://defipulse.com/defi-list/ **** **** Automated processing on IBM mainframes in the 1960s **** Although Decentralized Finance and Smart Contracts are a brand-new, shiny technology, there are problems and dangers that can be learned from history. Let's look at some historical examples. Back in the 1960s, accounting systems were developed for IBM mainframe systems, and they were only a stone's throw from never needing human accountants again, according to experts. The transaction processing systems used magnetic tapes. A typical processing run required three tapes -- an input tape of existing account records, an input tape of new transaction records, and an output tape of updated account records. The two input tapes are pre-sorted by account number so that they can be processed simultaneously in order of account. It's therefore possibe to update the accounts with only one pass through the transaction tape, writing the updated accounts to the output tape, which would be the existing accounts input tape for the next day's run. So let's take a look at some of the issues. The most obvious one is that the mainframe might be down, so that the transaction processing run could not take place. Another issue is that mag tapes are somewhat fragile, and data could be lost. Another possible problem is that the transaction processing software could have a bug, since all software has bugs. So if the bug affects several thousand accounts, then it's possible that a single run could result in several thousand errors caused by the bug, and they wouldn't be caught until much later. That's when people started saying things like, "To err is human. To really screw things up takes a computer." **** **** Intentional sabotage in automated processing **** Another problem was intentional sabotage. The mag tape transaction processing that I described was subject to a very interesting form of sabotage. Some transactions involve division of two numbers, and result in an amount with a fraction of a penny. The correct algorithm would round to the nearest penny, and the resulting amount would be used in the transaction. But one developer did something different. His software contained secret code that deducted the fractional penny from the amount, and credited it to his own account. Tens of thousands of fractions of a penny adds up to real money. He made a lot of money that way, but the consequences of what he had done were not discovered until much later. The thing that makes this kind of sabotage possible is that managers don't understand what the programmers are doing. There was a similar problem with the financial crisis of the 2000s. The Gen-X financial engineers got their Masters Degrees in the 1990s, and applied those skills to create fraudulent synthetic securities based on subprime mortgages. Their managers in the financial institutions had no idea how they worked, except that they made lots of money, and the result was the financial crisis. In the late 2000s I was working on a government system where the lead programmer was sabotaging the code (my code, in particular). I complained repeatedly to my boss, but he refused to believe me. Eventually, the lead programmer screwed around with someone else's code, someone really important, and my manager apologized to me. This shows that the consequences of sabotage are not usually discovered until much later. Another example was the Obamacare website Healthcare.gov. President Obama launched Obamacare on the afternoon of Oct 1, 2013, and he had no idea that the web site wasn't even working. When he announced the launch, he had no idea a disaster had unfolded several hours earlier. As I wrote in my 2015 article, massive fraud had occurred among all the consuting firms, and they propagated lies all the way up the chain. The entire White House had no idea of the disaster until it was too late. (See: "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history") So there was massive fraud in the development of Obamacare, which no one cares about since caring about Obamacare fraud is politically censored. Similarly, with tens of millions of mail-in ballots sent out last year there was massive fraud in the 2020 election that no one cares about, since caring about fraud in the 2020 election is politically censored. The reason for mentioning all this is that the DeFi technology will be a huge target for sabotage and fraud, and the people benefiting from the fraud may want it censored. This concern is being politically censored because the major beneficiaries -- Silicon Valley, the Chinese, the Democrats, hedge funds -- don't want it discussed. **** **** Sabotage and fraud in DeFi and Smart Contracts **** Blockchain technology has this magical, mystical reputation as being incorruptible -- open source, "tamper-proof data," transparency, permissionless access, etc. Obamacare had the same magical, mystical reputation, and the amount of fraud was massive. The mainstream media didn't want to see it, because it was censored. The housing bubble of the early-mid 2000s was obvious (I was writing about it, Alan Greenspan was talking about it), but mainstream media didn't want to see it until 2009, when millions of people had lost their homes or went bankrupt. The mainstream media don't want to see the massive voter fraud in the 2020 election. So there's no doubt that as DeFi grows, there will be lots of bugs and plenty of fraud, sabotage and corruption. This will be done at technical levels, and managers won't even know that it's going on until there are severe consequences and it's too late. In particular, it's absolutely certain that China's military is already developing tools to hack into DeFi applications, to control them. There's another issue that's analogous to the 1960s IBM mainframe being unavailable, and this applies to all blockchain technologies: There may be a crisis (flood, hurricane, Chinese sabotage, malware, war), and the internet could become unavailable, or large numbers of servers along the blockchain could be destroyed. **** **** Due diligence in DeFi and Smart Contract investments **** So you can invest in DeFi at any of several levels. You can invest in companies developing core low-level technologies, or in companies developing mid-level API platforms, or in companies developing the top level apps that people and corporations actually use in their business. Or, you could invest by using one of the apps for its business relationships. The investment at any of these levels would be subject to the same concerns that I've raised. So how do you do due diligence on such an investment? I believe that the biggest advantage of DeFi is also its biggest disadvantage and biggest risk -- the "self-executing" feature of "smart contracts." Here's the investopedia definition of Smart Contracts: <QUOTE>A smart contract is a self-executing contract with the terms of the agreement between buyer and seller being directly written into lines of code. The code and the agreements contained therein exist across a distributed, decentralized blockchain network. The code controls the execution, and transactions are trackable and irreversible. Smart contracts permit trusted transactions and agreements to be carried out among disparate, anonymous parties without the need for a central authority, legal system, or external enforcement mechanism.<END QUOTE> In other words, a "smart contract" is just a software program. It will also certainly contain bugs -- because all software programs contain bugs -- and it will be subjected to sabotage, malware and hacking. And since the whole point of smart contracts is that they're "self-executing," without human involvement, and since management won't understand what's going on anyway, the bugs and sabotage won't be detected until a disaster has occurred. Perhaps a good solution is to require "human oversight" of any smart contract. That is, if a self-executing smart contrast tells you "kill your mother or pay a large fine" (and this isn't as far-fetched as it might seem, given my experience with software developers in the last 20 years), then there has to be a way for a human being on each side of the smart contract to review the self-executing action, and override it under the right circumstances. This means that every party to a "smart contract" should have, as a backup, a printout or a pdf of a written contract that can be referenced if the internet goes down, or if there's a failure in or sabotage of the smart contract. Unfortunately, this will only work at a small scale. DeFi applications are going to become larger and more complex, with a single app consisting of hundreds or thousands of interlocking smart contracts, and these will really be a disaster waiting to happen. But they're coming anyway. Watch for the buzzword: DAO (distributed autonomous organization), an entire business which is just a collection of smart contracts. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Decentralized Finance, Defi, Smart Contracts, blockchain, crypto-currency, bitcoin, Obamacare, Healthcare.gov, distributed autonomous organization, DAO Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |