Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-13-2021 ** 13-Apr-2021 World View: US and Russia appear headed for confrontation over Ukraine
As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, Russian analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said that the fields of Ukraine and Russia are currently muddy because of melting snow, but by early May the fields will dry out, and there's a lot of talk about war in the beginning of May. Well, May is closer, and a number of actions seem to indicate that a military confrontation is close. Whether these actions are real war preparations or just "saber-rattling" for purposes of intimidation is not yet known. Here are some of the actions:
According to one analyst, the Russian massing of soldiers on the Ukraine border is so ostentatious that it means that Russia is only wants to intimidate Ukraine, not invade at the present time. However, Putin may be using it as a cover for a lesser objective, such as to infiltrate more Russian soldiers and military equipment into eastern Ukraine and Crimea. ---- Sources: -- Moscow will be ready for a war against Ukraine ‘in a month,’ Felgenhauer says http://euromaidanpress.com/2021/04/04/moscow-will-be-ready-for-a-war-against-ukraine-in-a-month-felgenhauer-says/ (EuromaidenPress, Ukraine, 4-Apr-2021) -- Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589 (BBC, 13-Apr-2021) -- Russia warns U.S. to stay away for its "own good" as Ukraine standoff intensifies https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-us-blinken-warning-ships-black-sea/ (CBS News, 13-Apr-2021) -- Rumours of War: Another Russian Surprise in Ukraine? https://icds.ee/en/rumours-of-war-another-russian-surprise-in-ukraine/ (ICDS, Estonia, 30-Mar-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2021 *** 15-Apr-21 World View -- High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal **** Girls in Afghanistan will no longer be in school if the US withdraws and the Taliban takes over (NY Times) President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that all American troops would be withdrawn by September 11 of this year, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11/2001 attacks, and that Nato troops would be withdrawn at the same time. This would be farcical if it weren't so tragic. How many times have we been here? The President announces a new policy -- "surge" into Afghanistan, a "victory" in Afghanistan, or a "peace with honor" in Afghanistan. I write an article explaining why all of those are impossible, based on a Generational Dynamics summarized later in this article. The new policy fails, exactly as I predicted. But nobody every learns. So last year, Donald Trump made a farcical agreement with the Taliban that if the changed their behavior, then the US would withdraw its troops by May 1 of this year. Trump's reason was that Americans are tired of "endless wars." (A bit of irony: Biden's announcement was described by the fawning mainstream media as "historic," but Trump's similar announcement was not.) So now Joe Biden is president, and he made a farcical announcement that the troops will be removed by September 11 of this year -- the 20th anniversary of the 9/11/2001 attack. I always accuse the Biden administration of having no clue what's going on in the world, but this takes the cake. We can expect the Taliban to engineer a major terrorist attack on September 11 to celebrate their victory over the Americans, having achieved their objective of forcing the Americans to withdraw. In his speech, Biden said: <QUOTE>"I believed that our presence in Afghanistan should be focused on the reason we went in the first place: to ensure Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland again. We did that. We accomplished that objective. I said, among — with others, we’d follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell if need be. That’s exactly what we did, and we got him. It took us close to 10 years to put President Obama’s commitment to — into form. And that’s exactly what happened; Osama bin Laden was gone. That was 10 years ago. Think about that. We delivered justice to bin Laden a decade ago, and we’ve stayed in Afghanistan for a decade since. Since then, our reasons for remaining in Afghanistan are becoming increasingly unclear, even as the terrorist threat that we went to fight evolved."<END QUOTE> So Biden's argument is that America went into Afghanistan to defeat al-Qaeda, but now that al-Qaeda has been defeated, there's no need for American troops to remain. There was one difference between the terms of the Trump and Biden announcements. Trump's May 1 deadline was "condition based," meaning that if the Taliban didn't behave, then Trump might extend the deadline. This was explained by Biden's press spokesman, Jen Psaki: <QUOTE>"[Question: And could his deadline extend, or could he change his mind if you do see the situation in Afghanistan just decline?] Psaki: Well, I will say that the president made this decision after close consultations and a close discussion and taking into account all the difficult factors I should say around that decision. So no, he remains committed to the timeline that he intends to set out in his speech. ... [Question: I don’t think I’ve heard in the answers so far, what the Taliban is supposed to think about this. I mean, if I was them, I think I’d want to take the summer off and wait until September 11th. And why go ahead and negotiate an agreement that would limit them if the U.S. is going to leave anyway?] Jen Psaki: Well, first I would say that we have an expectation that the Taliban is going to abide by their commitments and that they are not going to allow Afghanistan to become a pariah state. That’s our view. That’s also in their interest, in our view. ... And his view is that, when you talk about a conditions-based withdrawal, it punts it down the road, “We will never leave. What conditions would we be required to leave? By how long? What does that mean? What’s the additional cost?” These are all the factors in his mind."<END QUOTE> First off, the "expectation that the Taliban is going to abide by their commitments" is totally delusional. This answer illustrates the conundrum that Biden and Psaki did not unravel. On the one hand, if the withdrawal date is unconditional, then the Taliban will have every reason to continue terrorist acts. In fact, the Taliban have announced that they won't attend an Afghanistan peace conference being hosted by Turkey. Why should they? On the other hand, if the withdrawal date is conditional then, as Psaki says, the date will just be kicked down the road again. So the question is this: Will Biden go ahead with the withdrawal as announced, and hand the Taliban a victory? Or will he be forced to reconsider the withdrawal decision? **** **** CNN: Biden guided by 'magical thinking' in Afghanistan **** A number of analysts have ridiculed Biden's withdrawal announcement and the delusions behind it. One of them is Peter Bergen, the National Security Analysts for CNN, the network that fawns over Biden so much they've turned into a sewer. So Peter Bergen's analysis cannot readily be rejected as the opinnion of a "white supremacist," or whatever CNN calls anyone who disagrees with them. According to Bergen: <QUOTE>"President Biden's decision to announce a date for pulling all US troops out of Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of 9/11 sets the stage for a predictable disaster. ... There has to be some magical thinking going on for the Biden White House to expect that there will be a different outcome in Afghanistan [than in the President Obama's precipitous withdrawal from Iraq]. Yes, al Qaeda is a mere shadow of what it was on 9/11. That's because for the past two decades, the US and its allies have prevented Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and allied groups. It's a policy that has worked. Now, that sound policy is being abandoned. Once the US leaves Afghanistan, America's NATO allies, who have 7,000 soldiers on the ground, will leave as well, since they rely on an American security umbrella. President Biden confirmed this in his speech to the nation Wednesday afternoon. The pullout of US and NATO troops will likely enable the Taliban to take over much of the country."<END QUOTE> Bergen explains that the Taliban have remained in close contact with al-Qaeda, and they've guaranteed that they "would honor their historical ties" with al-Qaeda. Furthermore, ISIS retains a foothold in Afghanistan. As Bergen pointed out, the US and Nato have prevented Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for al-Qaeda and allied groups. Once the allied forces pull out, Afghanistan will once again become a safe haven for both al-Qaeda and ISIS, just as Osama bin Laden used Afghanistan as a safe haven to launch the original 9/11/2001 attacks. It's not just Peter Bergen who is alarmed at the withdrawal decision. The New York Times, who always fawningly slobber over Biden, is worried for the girls of Afghanistan. According to the Times: <QUOTE>"“I am so worried about my future. It seems so murky. If the Taliban take over, I lose my identity,” said Wahida Sadeqi, 17, an 11th grader at Pardis High School in Kabul. “It is about my existence.” ... For two decades, American leaders have pledged peace, prosperity, democracy, the end of terrorism and rights for women. Few of those promises have materialized in vast areas of Afghanistan, but now even in the cities where real progress occurred, there is fear that everything will be lost when the Americans leave. ... Over two decades, the American mission evolved from hunting terrorists to helping the government build the institutions of a functioning government, dismantle the Taliban and empower women. But the U.S. and Afghan militaries were never able to effectively destroy the Taliban, allowing the insurgents to stage a comeback. ... Women would be most at risk under Taliban rule. When the group controlled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, it banned women from taking most jobs or receiving educations and practically made them prisoners in their own homes."<END QUOTE> Biden administration officials might be thinking to paraphrase Walter Cronkite from 53 years ago, "If we've lost the NY Times, then we've lost America." The interesting thing about the NY Times article is that it seems to reject the delusional Biden administration claim that the Afghan democracy will continue. The article simply assumes that the Taliban will take over, and will impose the same dictatorial government they had in 2001, when they sponsored Osama bin Laden's attack on America. Analysts who favor continuing leaving a small number (3,500) of American troops in Afghanistan point out that these can prevent a resurgence of al-Qaeda and ISIS, and can also provide a listening post and forward military base to counter Chinese military activity in Central Asia. **** **** Generational Dynamics analysis of the war in Afghanistan **** I began writing about the impossibility of winning in Afghanistan shortly after President Obama announced his plan to "surge" troops into Afghanistan. President Bush had used a successful "surge" counter-insurgency strategy in Iraq in 2007, with the result that al-Qaeda was driven out of Iraq, and the objectives were met. But al-Qaeda in Iraq were mostly not Iraqis. They were jihadists that al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had imported from Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqis themselves, even the Sunnis, mostly hated al-Qaeda, as I described in a lengthy analysis, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq,". But the Taliban could be defeated in a similar way in Afghanistan, because the Taliban are radicalized ethnic Pashtuns, and most of the population of Afghanistan are Pashtuns. In an article earlier this year, I was able to extend this original analysis, based on research that I had done for my book, "Vietnam, Buddhism and the Vietnam War." In that book, I compared the counter-insurgency strategies used by British in the Boer War (1899-1902) and the Malay Emergency (1948-55), and how they contrasted to similar counter-insurgency strategies used by the Americans in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. (See "18-Jan-21 World View -- Chaos grows in Afghanistan as American troops leave in hope of delusional peace plan" ) But the extended analysis is based on the same reasoning: In Iraq, the civilians and jihadists looked different and spoke differently. In Afghanistan, the civilians and jihadists were the same Pashtun people. Let's face it, most politicians and journalists are ignorant and dumb. They have no knowledge of Afghanistan's last generational crisis war, an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96, that defines Afghan society today. The war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan. Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill each other. So what is Biden going to do? If he goes ahead with the withdrawal, then it's 100% certain that Afghanistan will collapse into chaos, and it's likely that the Taliban will take control of the government, and everything that America's sacrifices brought to Afghanistan -- democracy, women's rights, relative peace -- will be lost within a few months. Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, CNN, Peter Bergen, Iraq, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Walter Cronkite, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance, Vietnam, Buddhism, Vietnam War Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-18-2021 *** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine **** Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Britain is reported to be sending two warships to the Black Sea, as Russia continues its military buildup on the Ukraine border, and a naval buildup in the Black Sea. Britain's announcement came when the US backed out of plans to send ships to the Black Sea after being warned by Russia to stay out. Russia appears to be taking the next step in a plan that began with its invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014, following a military buildup on the border of Ukraine similar to the military buildup going on at the current time. The invasion took place after Vladimir Putin promised not to invade Ukraine. During the course of that invasion, Russians in eastern Ukraine in July 2014 shot down a passenger plane, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile. The Russians claimed that the US shot down the plane to embarrass Putin. Russia lied about not invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea. Putin lied about not annexing Crimea, and then annexed Crimea. In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the Kerch Strait (see map above), said to be the longest bridge in Europe. Russia used the bridge to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to Ukraine. In November 2018, Russia completed the bridge, and opened live fire for no reason on three Ukrainian vessels, wounding six sailors, boarding and seizing the vessels. The sailors were transferred indefinitely to a jail in Moscow. The point of reviewing this history is to set the framework for Russia's latest actions, and to show that pretty much everything Russia claims is garbage. The typical Russian playbook is to commit some atrocity and then blame the United States or Nato, such as when the Russians shot down the MH17 passenger plane. In the current scene, Russian analysts are claiming that the military buildup is because the United States wants Ukraine to join Nato, and because Ukraine is planning to invade Russia. Over the years, I've dealt with dozens of Russian trolls excusing Russia atrocities with some of the most ridiculous excuses, and this is typical. The problem is that we have absolutely no idea what the Russians are planning.
Whatever military action Russia is planning will probably take place in early or mid-May, after the snows have melted and the fields have dried and are able to hold tanks. We'll have to wait until then to see which of these options Russia will pursue. **** **** Russia builds up its naval forces in Black Sea **** Coinciding with the huge build-up of over 100,000 Russian troops near the border with Ukraine, Russia is bolstering its naval fleet in the Black Sea. Two Russian warships from Russia's Baltic fleet, accompanied by 15 smaller vessels, transited from the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosphorus to the Black Sea on Saturday. The Bosphorus is the waterway, controlled by Turkey, connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea. This comes after Russia announced that Russia is sending 15 naval vessels from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. These vessels must travel up the Volga River, through a canal built in 1952 with 13 locks, to the Don River, and then to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. So Russia's naval buildup is large and expensive, just like its ground buildup. **** **** Britain to send warships to Black Sea after US backs down **** Map of Russian deployment around Ukraine (RFE/RL) There are a number of news stories from multiple international sources describing this situation, and they seem to boil down to the following: The US was planning to send two warships into the Black Sea, for a long-scheduled routine mission. However, Russia warned the United States on Tuesday (4/13) against sending the warships, "for their own good." Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Russian news agencies as follows: <QUOTE>"There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be doing near our shores. We warn the United States that it will be better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea coast. It will be for their own good."<END QUOTE> Also on Tuesday, president Joe Biden phoned Russia's president Vladimir Putin, after which the US backed down on the plans to send warships to the Black Sea. US officials described the reason was to avoid needlessly escalating the situation, and a desire not to provoke Moscow during a delicate time. However on Sunday, British media is reporting that a flotilla of ships from the Royal Navy's carrier task group in the Mediterranean, including a Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and an anti-submarine Type 23 frigate, will travel to the Black Sea in May. The deployment is aimed at showing solidarity with Ukraine and Britain's NATO allies. I heard one analyst make the following speculation about what happened: Perhaps Biden fears a coordinated attack next month on Ukraine by Russia simultaneously with a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and so Biden did not want American warships to be trapped in the Black Sea. **** **** Russia continues military buildup on Ukraine's border **** If major hostilities break out again in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine), then the situation will have changed a lot since the last war in 2014, since both Ukraine's and Russia's militaries are better prepared. Ukraine has significantly boosted defense spending since 2014, has U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles in its arsenal, and has troop numbers of nearly 250,000 compared to 168,000 in 2013. In recent weeks, Russia has unexpectedly boosted its troop presence near the conflict zone in Ukraine. Analysis of open-source material has identified tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, long-range artillery, rocket launchers, and Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems among the materiel that has been moved to the area since mid-March. U.S. and NATO officials have called it the largest military buildup in the region since Russia’s surprise occupation of Crimea and the start of fighting in the Donbas, which has killed more than 13,000 combatants and civilians since April 2014. So what are Russia's plans? We probably won't know until early to mid-May. **** **** Major diplomatic row between Russia and Czech Republic **** This is a (probably) unrelated story, but it's being described as a major diplomatic development between Russia and Europe. The Czech Republic expelled 18 Russian diplomats on Saturday. On Sunday, Russia retaliated by announcing that 20 diplomats from the Czech Republic will be expelled. At the time of the explosion, it was assumed to be an accident, but through detective work, Czech officials now says that it was Russian sabotage. Czech Police have identified two suspects in connection with the blast - Alexander Mishkin and Anatoly Chepigov - who are also accused of using the chemical nerve agent weapon Novichok to murder Sergei Skripal, a former double Russian agent, and his daughter Yulia. The murder took place in the UK in Salisbury in 2018. Sources:
Related Sources:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea, Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Vladimir Putin, Kerch Strait, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Moldova, Transnistria, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Turkey, Bosphorus, Baltic Fleet, Caspian Sea, Volga River, Don River, Sergei Ryabkov, Royal Navy, Czech Republic, Alexander Mishkin, Anatoly Chepigov, Novichok, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-22-2021 ** 22-Apr-2021 World View: Russia says it's withdrawing troops from Ukraine border
Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Thursday that the 100,000+ troops on the Ukraine border will begin returning to their home bases from the Russian-Ukrainian border and Crimea on Friday. It's possible that the announcement is a lie, and that there won't be a withdrawal, since this is the kind of thing that Russia lies about all the time. But assuming it's true, it means that the whole thing was just a fun show, possibly for Vladimir Putin's domestic audience. However, one thing hasn't changed: Russia is continuing to close the Kerch Strait to naval traffic, until October 31, blocking Ukraine's naval traffic to Mariupol and other east Ukraining ports. ** 19-Apr-21 World View -- Britain sends warships to Black Sea amid Russia's military buildup around Ukraine ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210419.htm#e210419 -- Russia to Withdraw Troops From Ukraine Border, Crimea https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/22/russia-to-withdraw-troops-from-ukraine-border-crimea-a73705 (Moscow Times, 22-Apr-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-24-2021 ** 24-Apr-2021 World View: Violence grows between Palestinians and far-right Jews in East Jerusalem The beginnings of this are not clear from the press reports, but apparently this all began with the start of Ramadan on April 13. Palestinians wanted to gather in the promenade around the walls to the Old City to break the Ramadan fast at the end of each day. But Israeli police had blocked off access, giving Covid restrictions as the reason. The Palestinians claim that East Jerusalem is Palestinian territory being illegally occupied by Israel. There were several nights of sporadic violence until Thursday, but then a TikTok video went viral, apparently showing an Israeli being abused by an Arab. That's when the right-wing extremist Jewish settler organization Lehavah held a large demonstration, chanting "Death to Arabs" and carrying signs saying "Death to Terrorists." Palestinians heard about this, and a crowd responded by throwing firecrackers and setting garbage bins on fire. Israeli police intervened to keep the two sides apart by blocking the Damascus Gate. Since then, hundreds of Palestinians, Israelis, and police have been wounded, with no reports of deaths. This is the worst violence in years betwee Israeli police and Palestinians in East Jerusalem. The violence is spreading to other West Bank cities and the Israeli Arab city Umm al-Fahm. It has also caused renewed clashes between Israel's army and Hamas in Gaza, with an exchange of bombings and rockets. ---- Sources: -- Israel's Netanyahu calls for 'calm' in Jerusalem after violence https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/scuffles-in-jerusalem-in-second-night-of-violence/news-story/97b08b46580120c3a1837e047cc88956 (AFP, 24-Apr-2021) -- East Jerusalem / Police bolsters J'lem forces following unrest https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1FkB0ZDd (YNet, 24-Apr-2021) -- Umm al-Fahm / Hundreds Protest in Israeli Arab City Against Far-right Violence in Jerusalem https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-hundreds-protest-in-israeli-arab-city-against-far-right-violence-in-jerusalem-1.9742870 (Haaretz, 24-Apr-2021) -- US ‘deeply concerned’ over Jerusalem violence https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/101221/US-%E2%80%98deeply-concerned%E2%80%99-over-Jerusalem-violence (US News, 24-Apr-2021) -- Violent clashes in Jerusalem after Israeli far-right march https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/23/dozens-of-palestinians-wounded-by-israeli-police-in-jerusalem (Al-Jazeera, 23-Apr-2021) -- Jerusalem Tension Triggers Gaza-Israel Fire Exchange https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-04-23/jerusalem-tension-triggers-gaza-israel-fire-exchange (AP, 24-Apr-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2021 ** 25-Apr-2021 World View: Death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno I haven't been posting much for a few days because I've been working on an article about the death of Chad's president Idriss Déby Itno last week. He died in battle, personally leading his army in defense of the capital from rebels. Ordinarily the death of an African leader wouldn't generate much interest in the West, but in this case Déby was the lynchpin of France's entire counter-terrorism efforts in the African Sahel. His death could signal the further rise of Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, and ISIS, all of whom are active in the Sahel, and all of whom were being challenged by France's Operation Barkhane, with Déby amd Chad's military being the most important fighters. Now, Chad may become unstable, and may even fall to the rebels that Déby was fighting, and this could destabilize the whole region, and that would leave France's counter-terrorism efforts in shambles.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2021 ** 26-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey and China DaKardii Wrote:> Turkey is threatening to leave NATO and ally with China, Russia, We've had this discussion before, but though you may be right, I have a great deal of difficulty accepting this conclusion. Turkey's brothers and cousins, the Turkic people, are spread across Central Asia, and the Uighurs and Kazakhs are being tortured, raped, beaten and enslaved in China by the millions, in the most horrific war crimes since the 1930s. Erdogan wants to pretend this isn't happening, but the Turkish people don't always agree. This was obvious earlier this month when the Mayor of Ankara shut off the water supply to the Chinese embassy. *** 11-Apr-2021 World View: China's Uighur problem http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=60229#p60229 There's no way that the Turkish people are simply going to side with China against China's enemies, except in narrow circumstances. Turkey is in a unique geographic location, at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If you think about it, Turkey is going to be facing at least a three-front war:
And we still have to add Armenia, Syria's Alawites, and some old Ottoman enemies. So I can imagine all sorts of possible scenarios for Turkey. It might be fighting one of those fronts, or all three either consecutively or sequentially. I heard an analyst on TV today say that China has established BRI projects in 51 of 54 African countries, making each of these countries a kind of "China lite," complete with arms, weapons and massively expensive infrastructure projects. A few months ago, I wrote about: ** 16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e201216.htm#e201216 The summary is this: Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One nation after another will make concession to "mend old hatreds," except that China will not make a single concession. According to the newsletter: "The big question is how America will respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it. If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and Russia." This strategy assumes that Turkey and those 51 African nations will all fall in line behind China. This is a joke, and is a particularly delusional fantasy because China has pissed off everyone in the world by infecting them with the Wuhan Coronavirus. So will Turkey fight against the US alongside China? Anything is possible, but I don't think so. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2021 ** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Signposts Of The End 99% of analyses from mainstream economists are total garbage, as proven by the fact that they almost always turn out wrong or, at best, made no forecasts that are more accurate than the ones you can get by flipping a coin. In particular, I've been listening to an unbelievable cacophony of nonsense about inflation. In the last couple of days I've heard warnings of the coming round of super-inflation that would match the 1970s. Where do they get these so-called "experts," who are more idiots than experts. People in the 1970s were survivors of the Great Depression, so they can't be compared to people today, but mainstream economists are too stupid to grasp that. So it was interesting today to read an article of economic analysis that actually made sense: "Lulled Into Complacency" - Signposts Of The End Are Everywhere Authored by Eric Hickman, president of Kessler Investment Advisors, Inc., https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled-complacency-signposts-end-are-everywhere This article analyzes several economic trends back to 1900. It even gets the Law of Reversion of the Mean right for P/E ratios, although the text deftly avoids scaring people by mentioning that the long-term average is 14, but you can see it right from their graph:
This article goes far beyond P/E ratios to numerous other economic analyses. It's not a full-scale generational analysis, but it's the closest I've seen. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2021 ** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Conclusions of the 'signposts' article It's worthwhile to post the conclusions from the article linked in my previous post: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lulled-complacency-signposts-end-are-everywhere But this time is different? Stock market bulls suggest the stock market will continue rising because the pandemic will soon be over (I’m not so sure) and developed economy governments have put enough money into their economies to keep their stock markets elevated (not sure about that either). Investors have been lulled into complacency because the stock market has rallied through every risk thrown its way for more than a decade. It is a mistake to think this is normal or sustainable. Some feature of COVID-19 will likely be the stock market’s undoing, but it doesn’t have to be. Possible candidates include an emerging market sovereign fiscal crisis, a large hedge-fund/bank blow-up, fraud, social unrest, or a geopolitical crisis. There is also the possibility that an inflection point won’t have an identifiable catalyst, but could happen just from a collective realization that asset prices reflect optimism extrapolated further into the future than is realistic. I don’t know when or how, but sentiment will change; the boom and bust process is as old as civilization. When it happens, nobody is big enough to stop it coming down. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is this cycle’s “false idol.” Every cycle has one – a reason why it can’t come down. Right before the stock market crash of 1929, Yale economist Irving Fisher said stock prices were in “what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Portfolio insurance was the culprit in 1987. In 2000, it was said that the internet was a “new paradigm” obviating historical comparisons. Before the 2007-2008 stock market crash, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the housing market was too varied geographically to come down at once. Ben Bernanke, the subsequent chairman of the Federal Reserve, infamously said that he thought losses to subprime mortgage loans were “contained.” All of them were wrong. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2021 ** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey's core national national identity DaKardii Wrote:> If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that This is certainly convoluted logic. There is no principle in Genertional Dynamics that supports the logic that "It's a crisis era, and Turkey won't side with Russia, therefore the only possible outcome is that Turkey sides with China." There are many other possible outcomes that you haven't considered, including a civil war within Turkey itself. You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities, such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast. The Turkish people came from Central Asia, just as Americans came from England. The Turkish people could never turn away from the Central Asians, any more than Americans could turn away from the British. So the Turks will never side with China against the Uighurs and Kazakhs. It's much more than a "sensitive issue." It's the core of their national identity. That stuff about hoping to "get a piece of Central Asia" as a reward for siding with China is utter nonsense. As for recognizing the Armenian genocide, that will generate domestic turmoil, but it will be forgotten soon and won't have any effect on the core issues for Turkey. The Turkish people have no core national interests in a war with Western Europe or America. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-30-2021 Please correct me if I got this wrong.... Hasn't China alienated a number of countries with its rapacious policies? Trapping countries with debt...neo-imperialism as devised by loan sharks. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2021 ** 29-Apr-2021 World View: Jerome Powell and Judas: Damned for all time Higgenbotham Wrote:> Why $120 billion a month, why not less? I actually feel sorry for Jerome Powell. He knows that we're on the edge of a cliff, and he knows that anything he does could be blamed as the cause of going over the cliff. Powell wants to do the right thing, but no matter what he does, he's afraid of being "damned for all time." I'm a great believer in the concepts of "calling" or "karma" or "obsession". People (including myself) are driven to do what they have to do, even when they know that what they're going to do will lead to disaster. That's a big part of the Greek concept of tragedy. Have you ever seen the 1960s Broadway musical Jesus Christ Superstar? In many ways, that play is the story of Judas, and his obsession that forces him to betray Jesus for 30 pieces of silver. Here's what he sings just before the betrayal: Quote:> Now if I help you, it matters that you see So I feel sorry for Powell, because he must feel the same way: "I have no thought at all about my own reward. I really didn't come here of my own accord. Just don't say I'm ... Damned for all time." After betraying Jesus, Judas gives the 30 pieces of silver to the temple, and then kills himself. Quote:> Christ, I know you can't hear me, RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2021 ** 02-May-2021 World View: Democrats' rape, violence and enslavement culture. spottybrowncow Wrote:> The issue is, how long should you go on following a set of rules DaKardii Wrote:> I'm an absolutist when it comes to belief in rule of law. I'm I don't know what "selective enforcement" you're referring to on the right, but there's massive criminality on the left that's being supported and encouraged by the Democrats, the mainstream media and big tech that's not being enforced at all. The Democrats use phony charges of rape all the time, but they approve of and support rape by white Democrats like Bill Clinton. Rape is a big part of the Democrat party culture. The KKK actively raped black girls for decades. Joe Biden himself may have raped some black girls when he was young. If not, then he was certainly aware that others, like Grand Kleagle Robert Byrd, who were doing do. Maxine Waters, who is totally unhinged, must have been deeply traumatized by something, and she was quite likely raped by a White Democrat as a girl. If not, then probably her girlfriends were raped. At the least, she would have known many black girls who had been raped by White Democrats in previous years. Today, the Democrats are supporting as much rape as possible on the southern border. The Democrats see massive rape as an opportunity to raise a new generation of Democrat voters. As much rape as possible is Democrat party policy. So when you claim to be an "absolutist" about the rule of law, you might start with the support of rape among Democrats. There's a reason why Democrats don't care about the enslavement, rape and torture of Uighurs in China. That's because they're still furious that they lost the Civil War and that the Republicans freed the slaves, and the Democrats would like to refight the civil war and re-enslave the blacks. The Democrats are envious of the CCP because the CCP are being successful at enslavement, and they'd like to do the same. For example, the CCP's so-called "re-education centers" for indoctrination are being replicated in America by using the super-powerful and wealthy Teachers Unions to enforce the indoctrination of "critical race theory" in the schools which is an extremely evil development. The Democrats learned this from the CCP. The Democrats are doing everything possible to encourage violence among blacks. There is massive street violence among blacks that Democrats never even mention. However, the Democrats adopt every possible policy to destroy the black family, with the result that young black males see that they have no chance of a normal family life, and they turn to violence. This is an intended consequence by the Democrats, who want as many blacks to kill each other as possible. - The Democrats are doing everything possible to defund the police, so that more blacks will kill each other. - The Democrats in California are letting tens of thousands of violent criminals, mostly black, out of jail, in order to increase the murder of blacks in California. - The Democrats want to end "cash bail," so that violent criminals, mostly black, will be freed from jail immediatey upon arrest, if an arrest occurs at all, and they'll be free to kill other blacks. - The Democrats are purposely enabling and supporting the Mexican cartels to bring massive amounts of meth and fentynal into the country, expecting it to reach black neighborhoods, where the black family will be further destroyed and there will be more violence of blacks killing blacks. - The Democrats are encouraging as much violence as possible by antifa-blm fascists to burn down cities, particularly targeting blacks, so that more blacks will be impoverished, and there will be more violence between blacks, which is what the Democrats want. White Democrats regularly beat, tortured, lynched and raped blacks when Joe Biden was a boy. He may or may not have taken part in such activities himself, but he was certainly aware of them by other White Democrats, such as by his idolized mentor, Grand Kleagle Robert Byrd. In 1977, Joe Biden was opposed to desegrating schools. He wanted blacks in black schools and whites in white schools. He was opposed to school busing and said: "Unless we do something about this, my children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle with tensions having built so high that it is going to explode at some point. We have got to make some move on this." So the massive slaughter of blacks in the streets today is the active policy of the Democrats. It keeps the blacks in their place -- i.e., in their own black neighborhoods, where they won't bother the children of White Democrats. And if all goes well, the White Democrats will achieve their erotic dream, try to re-fight the civil war and re-enslave the blacks and free rape of black girls, and they're watching the CCP do it to the Uighurs for instruction. So I don't know who Fuentes is either, but I gather you're criticizing him for saying something you didn't like, but you're saying nothing about the massive rape and violence and enslavement culture of the Democrat party. So that's the reason that others are criticizing you and people like you. You claim to be "absolutist" about law enforcement, but never about the Democrats' massive rape and violence and enslavement culture. For your own credibility, you should start there. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2021 ** 02-May-2021 World View: China and Taiwan Guest Wrote:> The Chinese bank on the West not resisting, or being willing to Guest Wrote:> And the world will be silent whilst China destroys Taiwan and, I believe that if China attacks Taiwan, then the US will retaliate, and that will lead to WW III. China anticipates the same thing. That's why an attack on Taiwan is likely to be coupled with an attack on American assets, to prevent or slow down retaliation. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2021 ** 02-May-2021 World View: China has no friends (04-30-2021, 08:45 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Please correct me if I got this wrong.... Yes, you're absolutely right. According to some of the Asian guests in the GD forum, China has no friends at all in Asia. Even Pakistan, China's all-weather friend, dearer than eyesight, is having some disagreements with China accusing Pakistan of harboring Uighur "terrorists." And pretty much everybody in the world is super-pissed off at China for infecting 180 countries with the Wuhan coronavirus, while protecting itself. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2021 *** 3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Violence on Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border worst in 20 years **** Ironically, some crockery survives an enormous blast that reduced homes to rubble near the Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan border (BBC) For years since the end of the bloody Tajikistan civil war (1992-97), there have been border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but they've all been isolated incidents. But in the last few weeks, the Tajik army has been mobilizing along a long section of the border, for the first time. The border is 971 kilometers long, of which 471 km are disputed. At least 31 people have been killed, and over 10,000 people have been evacuated from their homes due to the worst violence in decades between Kyrgyz and Tajik army forces. Entire villages on both sides have been burned down. On Sunday, the two governments agreed to a ceasefire, but it's not clear that the people on the ground agree. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan belong to Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Russia has military bases in both countries, so Russia would like to see the conflict settled peacefully. The borders between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were set up in the 1920s by Josef Stalin, making them part of the Soviet Union. Stalin had no concern for ethnic, demographic, and tribal considerations when he set up those boundaries. He was only interested in commericial benefits. And the boundaries didn't matter, since both countries were part of the Soviet Union. But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, suddenly the boundaries mattered. The boundaries were never clearly defined, and there have been calls over the years to officially mark the boundaries. Of course, this would bring any border disagreements into sharp focus, so this project hasn't been pursued. But recently, the government of Kyrgyzstan announced that it would like to complete border demarcations between the countries, and to build a reservoir along the river that supplies water to both countries. These announcements caused the Tajiks to panic, and led to the current border clashes. **** **** Taliban and Afghan forces clash as US begins withdrawal **** The US and Nato began withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan on May 1, with the withdrawal to be completed on September 11, on the 20th anniversary of the Sept 11, 2001, attacks. The Taliban had promised to coexist peacefully with the Afghan government provided that the US withdrawal was fully completed by May 1, as agreed with the Donald Trump administration early last year. But the Taliban now say that the US has violated the agreement, so they're free to attack anyone they want. Joe Biden has said that the the September 11 completion date for the withdrawal is absolute, not conditions based, so the Taliban know that they can just go ahead and attack. On Friday, 30 people were killed when a car bomb exploded near a guest house where high school students were staying, in preparation for university entrance exams. Dozens of people were hurt. Witnesses described roofs collapsing and victims being trapped under the debris. In the last two days alone, there have been dozens of new casualties, from clashes between Afghan forces and the Taliban. Once the Americans leave, there will be nothing preventing the clashes from escalating. Reports indicate that the people of Kabul are feeling increasingly anxious, particularly about girls' education, which the Taliban have promised to abolish. Friday's car bombing may have been designed to target girls' education. **** **** US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability **** The withdrawal of US and Nato troops from Afghanistan threatens more than just the stability of Afghanistan. It threatens new kinds of instability in the entire Central Asia region. The countries in the region are concerned that the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will create the same regional instability that the American withdrawal from Iraq did in 2010. The heads of the countries in Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have been meeting to discuss this precise concern. In fact, villagers in Tajikistan, along the Afghanistan border, are being told to be prepared "to take up arms," in the words of a provincial governor: <QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation dictates."<END QUOTE> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is not surprising at all. Both Afghanistan (1991-96) and Tajikistan (1992-97) had extremely bloody ethnic civil wars during the 1990s. In Afghanistan, the war was between the Pashtuns in the south versus the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, so they will be looking for revenge. It's been over 20 years since those civil wars ended, so the region is in a generational Awakening era, with new nationalistic generations having grown up since then, and having little fear of a new civil war. It's way too early for a major new war, but as typically happens, there will be periods of bloodshed separated by periods of ceasefire, with each bloodshed period worse than the previous one. Furthermore, new terrorist groups with allegiance to al-Qaeda or ISIS have been springing up in Afghanistan, but have been kept under control with the help of American forces. These groups will be encouraged to grow again, with the departure of the Americans. In 2009, I told readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley), in central Asia, because it was going to become increasingly important in world affairs. The Fergana Valley sits at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and is a hotbed of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda. ( "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2-Nov-2009)" ) The American withdrawal from Afghanistan will encourage these clashes. That may be why there have been reports that the Biden administration has been talking to the government of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to reposition the US forces leaving Afghanistan in abandoned American military bases in those two countries. American forces had occupied those bases between 2001 and 2014, before the host countries demanded that the Americans leave. Little is known publicly about these negotiations, but it would be ironic if the withdrawal of American forces from the "forever war" in Afghanistan led to American forces becoming involved a "forever war" in Central Asia and the Fergana Valley. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Fergana Valley, Ferghana Valley, China, Russia, Josef Stalin, Soviet Union, Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-05-2021 ** 05-May-2021 World View: Same Time Next Year Today's hilarious financial news item of the day: After Bill and Melinda gates got married, Bill carried on a "Same Time Next Year" relationship with a former girlfriend, former high school cheerleader Ann Winblad. Same Time, Next Year (1978) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078199/ The Surprising Parts of Bill & Melinda Gates' Marriage — Including His Vacations with an Ex https://people.com/human-interest/most-surprising-parts-of-bill-and-melinda-gates-marriage/
The rich guys get all the girls. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-07-2021 ** 06-May-2021 World View: Completely baseless accusations DaKardii Wrote:> Yes. That's exactly why I believe it. What are you talking about? Of course Shia and Sunni Muslims can cooperate against a common enemy. Iraq is a nation of both Sunnis and Shias, and they united to fight Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. What you wrote doesn't even make any sense. Pompeo is absolutely correct that Iran sometimes cooperates with al-Qaeda to target American assets. Of course they would. I've written articles about it in the past, and I linked to a couple recently for you. You said that Pompeo manufactured a lie that "Iran supports al-Qaeda!" and you said that it was a "completely baseless accusation." Now you're saying, well maybe it's cooperation but not an alliance. Well of course it's cooperation but not an alliance. But that's different than a lie and a "completely baseless accusation." Of course Iran will support al-Qaeda when it benefits them. Why wouldn't they? They aren't that stupid. DaKardii Wrote:> Meanwhile, I knew that "Russian bounty" story was bullshit from Once again, you don't know what your talking about. The Soviet Empire, prior to 1991, consisted of Muslim and Christian states that had to cooperate on all sorts of things. Today, Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) contains both Muslim and Christian nations, and they cooperate on trade and security and other things. So Sunni fundamentalists ally with Orthodox Russia all the time. Alliances can be formed along all kinds of demographic fault lines, and religion is just one. There's also skin color, ethnicity, geography, and economic alignment. So, "Why would the Sunni fundamentalist Taliban be allies with Orthodox Russia?" Well of course they would, at least temporarily, if they thought that it would benefit them. Why wouldn't they? Do you think they would say, "We won't take your Christian money?" That's ridiculous. But still, the answer to the question of "Why would the Sunni fundamentalist Taliban be allies with Orthodox Russia?" is no, but for a completely different reason than the one you gave. It's because the Russians don't want the Americans to withdraw, because that will destabilize the CSTO countries. ** 3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e210503.htm#e210503 So yes, the story was bullshit, manufactured by the Democrats to attack Trump during the campaign. Trump and Pompeo knew that it was ridiculous, but couldn't say so directly because then the Democrats would accuse Trump of being soft on Russia. So Pompeo said, "If it's true, then the Russians will pay a price." This was a brilliant answer because it embarrasses both the Democrats and the Russians. Now that Biden is in office, the CIA is saying, oh yeah right, that was bullshit after all. Very convenient. You've blamed Pompeo for lies and "totally baseless accusations," and you're wrong on all counts. The lies all come from the Democrats, not from the Republicans. You said that you were personally betrayed by the Republicans, and you're angered by the criminality of the Republicans, but every one of your examples is wrong. You mentioned something about coming from a GOP family. I'm going to guess that your strong emotional opinions are related less to facts and more to your disagreements within your family. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-07-2021 ** 06-May-2021 World View: Khashoggi DaKardii Wrote:> Nope. My current opinions are rooted in me listening to the Ron The Democrats, led by shithead Adam Schiff, manufactured one lie after another about Donald Trump. As each one was proven to be a lie, they were never embarrassed, but just went on to the next one. That's what was really sickening. So there are hundreds of these floating around out there, and I know that you can resuscitate them faster than I have the time or motivation to bat them down, so I'm probably just going to give up with you. However, let's consider Khashoggi. I was never impressed by the Khashoggi killing, because it was really just a typical horrific extrajudicial killing of a kind that I read about every day, that I write about occasionally, and that are portrayed in the TV drama series Criminal Minds. The only thing special about the Khashoggi killing is that the details were particularly gruesome, that the details were leaked, that Khashoggi's fiancee was outside the embassy while it was going on, and that Erdogan and the Washington Post were able to exploit the murder for their poltical ends. The Khashoggi murder may have been gruesome, but similarly gruesome extrajudicial murders occur and have occurred in every country, including America. A century ago, Democrats in the KKK performed similarly gruesome extrajudicial murders on a regular basis. Here are the lyrics to Billie Holliday's 1939 song, Strange Fruit: Quote:> "[Verse 1] So I'm not impressed by the Khashoggi murder. It's just a typical, every day, horrific extrajudicial murder. Ho-hum. With regard to Saudi policy, I consider it much more important to maintain our commitment to stability in the Mideast, and particularly the agreement we've had with the Saudis since the 1930s. As bad as the Khashoggi murder is (though no worse than the murders depicted in Strange Fruit), the continuity of foreign policy is more important than one fairly typical extrajudicial murder. But you have a very particular view of such things. You say this: DaKardii Wrote:> I'm an absolutist when it comes to belief in rule of law. I'm Being such an absolutist means, of course, that you're unable to distinguish between a parking violation and a murder. It's also politically convenient for you, because you can festoon your "absolutist" view with whatever ideological or emotional enhancement that you like. So you might say that that the parking violation is a horrific crime because it blocks your car, but the murder is perfectly ok, because you dislike the guy who was murdered. That's the advantage of taking an absolutist view. You can adapt to anything you want. It's the kind of trickery that the Democrats use. Let's make a comparison. For me, Bashar al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Arab Sunnis is infinitely worse than the murder of just one individual, Khashoggi. But not for you. Your "absolutist" view of the law means that Bashar al-Assad's genocide and ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Arab Sunnis is legally equivalent to the murder of just one individual, Khashoggi. In fact, I believe that in the past you've defended al-Assad. He's just a poor, misunderstood opthamologist, trying to make the world a better place. In fact, to you he's a victim, because people like me accuse him of awful things, like being the worst genocidal monster so far this century. You would forget that he slaughters innocent civilians with Sarin gas, chlorine gas, phosphorus and other chemical weapons. You would forget that he pours missiles into children's dormitories, residential neighborhoods, and marketplaces, in order to kill as many women and children and possible. You would forget that he particularly targets hospitals and medical facilities. You would forget that he tortured, mutilated and killed some 50,000 prisoners in his private prison in Damascus. Each one of these 50,000 mutilations and murders is individually worse than the Khashoggi murder. So you single out Saudi's King Salman as the criminal of the century because of the Khashoggi murder, while you find Bashar al-Assad just to be a poor victim of his time. That's taking your "absolutist" view of the law and festooning it with your emotions. I take the opposite view. I consider Salman to be an ordinary dictator, while Bashar al-Assad is the genocidal monster of the century. As I said, I can't keep up with you. You can find a million things to blame Trump for -- just look up shithead Adam Schiff's stream of lies -- and I have neither time more nor motivation to respond to them more than occasionally. Every example you've given turns out to have been wrong. Maybe Tulsi Gabbard will be able to save you.
She'll probably be the hottest candidate in 2024, which means that she can be forgiven, even if she's a warmonger. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-07-2021 ** 07-May-2021 World View: Bashar al-Assad's victims Trevor Wrote:> You're forgetting one thing, John: that was at a single facility You're absolutely right. I had forgotten about the other facilities, though I mentioned them in my original story; ** 22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140122.htm#e140122 |