Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-06-2021 *** 7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border **** Map of Afghanistan showing recent rapid advance of Taliban (Afghan-Analysts) Multiple analysts on TV have been echoing the reports that, as American and Nato troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban are taking control of the country far more rapidly than expected. The Taliban are now in control of a third of the country. Many in the Afghan army, who are supposed to be fighting the Taliban without the aid of Nato, are apparently fleeing without a fight. More than 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled border with Tajikistan, causing Tajikistan's president to call up 20,000 military reservists to guard the border. This follows a general warning to Tajikistan villagers who live along the border to be prepared "to take up arms." (See "3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability" ) In May, a provincial governor announced: <QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation dictates."<END QUOTE> As I wrote at the time, the withdrawal of American and Nato forces in Afghanistan threatens to destabilize the entire Central Asian region that includes Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Many analysts are pointing these events out, and it's not lost on any of them that after America and Nato have had forces in Afghanistan for almost 20 years, all the work that was done is now about to be lost in a period of a few months. In particular, there are already reports that the freedoms of women and girls are already being curtailed in newly-captured Taliban areas. **** **** Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan **** Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are all members of Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia, which operates one of its largest military bases abroad in Tajikistan equipped with tanks, helicopters, drones and ground attack aircraft, and is promising to stabilize the border with Afghanistan if needed. In the 1980s, Russia had an ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan (Russia's "Vietnam") fighting Islamic Pashtuns who later became the Taliban. Tajikistan and other Soviet Socialist republics, who were part of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, supported Russia's invasion. At that time, Osama bin Laden was a Sunni Muslim Saudi citizen whom the Saudis got rid of by encouraging him to travel Afghanistan to fight against the Orthodox Christian Russian infidels. Since the Soviet Union was the West's major enemy at the time, America and other Western countries supported bin Laden and his fight with the Soviets. After the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the situation rapidly evolved. There was an extremely bloody Afghan civil war between 1992-96, pitting radicalized Pashtuns in the south against the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. As I've written many times, this civil war, a generational Crisis war, is the controlling event today. Each side is bitterly angry at the atrocities, beatings, tortures and rapes perpetrated by the other side, and all many people want is revenge. That's always the nature of an ethnic civil war, and it's the reason why the Taliban will never fulfill their promises to give up violence. And that's why the remnants of the old Northern Alliance are now fleeing across the border into Tajikistan. As I wrote at the time, the agreement between Donald Trump and the Taliban in March 2020 was entirely delusional, but was apparently driven by a desire to withdraw troops from Afghanistan no matter what the cost and no matter how humiliating to the US. Joe Biden fully endorsed the delusional agreement, and we're now seeing the results, predictable and predicted. And yes, 20 years of work is now going down the drain. ( "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan" ) So Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko says: <QUOTE>"The situation there is rather tense because according to some sources, up to 70% of the Tajik-Afghan border is now controlled by the Taliban."<END QUOTE> So the Northern Alliance may be reincarnated under Russian leadership. Things are changing rapidly in Afghanistan, as the last American and Nato troops prepare to leave, and many analysts are foreseeing a catastrophe. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, China, Russia, Soviet Union, Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance, Saudi Arabia, Osama bin Laden, Andrei Rudenko Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-07-2021 ** 07-Jul-2021 World View: Bond yields Lots of panic on CNBC this morning because 10 yr bond yields are falling to 1.3%, with the fear that they will fall to 1% by the end of the week. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-07-2021 As a totalitarian movement, much like Commies and fascists, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will be a humanitarian crisis. Watch for incoming... refugees. I see no reason to believe that the "new" Taliban will be any more pleasant than the "old" Taliban. Why couldn't the superpowers of the time (the USA and the Soviet Union) have left Afghanistan alone? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-07-2021 (07-07-2021, 07:59 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Jul-2021 World View: Bond yields What people must beware is the inverted yield curve in which long-term yields are lower than short-term yields. Very short-term yields make short-term borrowing more expensive, which discourages borrowing for starting new businesses. Speculative activity may be high and approaching the collapse. Quote: The shape of the yield curve changes with the state of the economy. The normal or upward sloping yield curve occurs when the economy is growing. Two primary economic theories explain the shape of the yield curve; the pure expectations theory and the liquidity preference theory. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 11-Jul-2021 World View: Afghanistan (07-07-2021, 10:51 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > As a totalitarian movement, much like Commies and fascists, the For centuries, Afghanistan has been like an exotic woman that says, "Take me, and I'll make you powerful and wealthy." So she's so exotic, and she's so willing, and you imagine all the riches and power and wealth that you'll have, and so you take her. And while you're inside her, she pulls out a knife from under the mattress and plunges it into you. As you have blood pouring out of you, you stagger to the door of her bedroom, and when you open the door, she shouts out into the hallway: "Next!" RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Why Trump supporters believe the election was stolen The Democrats are always expressing faux outrage and astonishment and ridicule that tens of millions of Trump supporters believe that the 2020 election was rigged, and stolen from Trump by the Democrats. On his show on Friday night, Tucker Carlson read an entire long essay in the form of a twitter thread explaining why Trump supporters believe the election was stolen. The twitter feed was from Darryl Cooper (@MartyrMade). What's interesting about this essay is that it shows an evolution of thought, from believing that the Democrats and the media would treat Trump fairly to believing that they would do anything, no matter how illegal or disastrous, to regain power from Trump. In the end, Cooper suggests that if Trump had won the election, they might have had him killed. It's well worthwhile to take a few minutes to read through Cooper's entire essay: Quote:> "I think I’ve had discussions w/enough Boomer-tier -- Darryl Cooper @MartyrMade / Must-Read Twitter Thread: Here’s Why We KNOW the 2020 Election Was Stolen https://noqreport.com/2021/07/09/must-read-twitter-thread-heres-why-we-know-the-2020-election-was-stolen/ (Noq Report, 9-Jul-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Shocks of understanding The evolution of thought described by Darryl Cooper almost exactly describes my own changing thought process, as I've become increasing astonished and depressed by the actions of the Democrats in creating a Stalinist Fascist regime that is now trying to control every aspect of America -- how we govern, how we think, what we read, what we're allowed to say, and so forth. I'd like to add to Darryl Cooper's timeline by listing some of the events that were the greatest shocks to me. I've written about these many times, so there's nothing really new here, but I'm collecting them here in one place.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Union of Concerned Scientists on appeasing the Chinese Communists The left-wing Union of Concerned Scientists has sent a letter to Biden advising him, in the name of "science," to adopt a policy of appeasement of the Chinese Communists, and ignore China's crimes and just cooperate with them on climate change. We already know from the entire Covid-19 crisis, that so-called "scientists" in the Democrat party are nothing more than cheap whores who will say anything for money, and will do as commanded by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats, and call whatever they say "science." Here are some excerpts from the letter: Quote:> "We, the undersigned organizations, call on the Biden I've written about the climate change hoax many times, but in retrospect one of the most interesting and relevant aspects was the hacking and release of thousands of e-mail messages from climate "scientists" from 1996 to 2009. The messages were hacked from a database at East Anglia University, a center for climate change "research." The hacked e-mail messages showed a pattern of deception and fraud by climate "scientists." The scientists urge one another to smooth over data and hide unfavorable data, to enforce a unified view, and to blackball scientists with opposing views. They've certainly done that, as anyone who questions the climate change religion can immediately lose his job. But the most relevant point that I wrote about at the time is that in the thousands of hacked e-mail messages, not a single one contains the word "Singularity." The Singularity is the point in time when computers become more intelligent than humans. I've predicted that this will happen in the 2030s. The Singularity completely destroys the "scientific" climate change narrative. Not everybody believes that the Singularity is coming, or that it is coming soon, but enough people believe it so that between 1996 and 2009, one of these so-called "scientists" should have said something like, "Hey guys, what about the Singularity?" It's clear that the "cancel culture" was heavily in place even then, and a scientist could be "canceled" for questioning the official narrative in any way, including even using the word "Singularity." So now we have a similar collection of left-wing "scientist" whores telling us that we'd better just do as the Chinese Communists say, and just ignore their torture, beating, rape, and enslavement of millions of Uighurs. Not every Democrat agrees with this, of course, but there are enough Soros-funded Democrats who would like to destroy the US Constitutional federal form of government, and this is one way to do it. Democrats are pretty stupid but, fortunately, even most Democrats aren't this stupid. ** Climate Change conference in Copenhagen is all about getting green -- money ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e091214.htm#e091214 -- Biden’s new Cold War with China will result in climate collapse, progressives warn https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/07/biden-china-climate-collapse-progressives-498588 (Politico, 7-Jul-2021) -- [Union Of Concerned Scientists -- prioritize Climate change over China] http://foe.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Cooperation-Not-Cold-War-To-Confront-the-Climate-Crisis-129.pdf (FOE.org, 7-Jul-2021) -- [Pelosi letter -- prioritize Climate change over China] https://quincyinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Pelosi-Letter.pdf (Quincy, 7-Jul-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: The Possibility of Sabotage by the Democrats If you've read my book on Vietnam, then you know that I researched it for many months, and used over 200 references, including several dozen entire books. This was necessary not only because Vietnam's history is complicated, much more complicated than China's, but also because of the Vietnam War. The war effort was sabotaged by two obviously disastrous decisions by JFK -- agreeing to make Laos neutral, and ousting Ngo Dinh Diem, leading to his assassination. Even Ho Chi Minh was quoted as saying that he couldn't believe that the Americans could be so stupid, given that Diem was the strongest anti-Communist leader available. These two decisions sabotaged the war effort, and it was obvious at the time the decisions were made that they would sabotage the war effort. So the only real question is motivation. Why did JFK want to lose the war to the North Vietnamese Communists? I didn't really speculate on JFK's motive in the book, except to say that perhaps Kennedy was too young to be president, and too confused by conflicting advice from his advisors, who were twenty years older than he was. Maybe the actual motive was related to the fact that in 1960 the KKK was still active, lynching blacks, and the Democrats were still furious that they had lost the Civil War. But whatever the motive, the inescapable conclusion was that JFK sabotaged the war effort, and made sure that the Americans and South Vietnamese would lose, and that the winners would be the North Vietnamese, the Soviet Union, and the American Communist Party (CPUSA). So the speculation is that some elements of the Democrat Party will do everything possible to appease the Chinese Communists and do everything possible to sabotage any confrontation. This would include, I assume, allowing China to annex Taiwan without a struggle. Many Democrats are financially compromised by the Chinese Communists. Eric Swalwell, who slept with an extremely hot Chinese Communist spy, is a poster child, along with Hunter Biden, Anthony Fauci, and many other Democrats, who are targeted by China's bribery and extortion policies, and so have to do as they're told. Democrats rarely criticize the Chinese Communists for enslaving millions of Uighurs, because they'd lose their funding if they did, and because they want to emulate the Chinese by re-enslaving the blacks. And now we have that ridiculous letter from the Union of Concerned Scientists that I wrote about in my last posting. This would be a big mistake for the Democrats. When I was working for IBM several decades ago, there were constant stories and rumors that IBM had helped the Nazis by selling them card processing equipment to keep track of the Jews. The Democrats will already be remembered in history for their Stalinist Fascist censorship regime, and they will be smeared much more if they appease the Chinese Communists and sabotage the United States. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War: How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the Vietnam War" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021 Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Buddhism-powerhouse-Generational/dp/1732738645/ John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019 Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-11-2021 ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Latest news about election audits The Democrats and the mainstream media think that we're all so stupid that we'll never be able to prove the massive fraud in the 2020 elections. There are several election audits going on. They take a lot of time since they require forensic analysis of millions of votes. Results are expected this fall. In the meantime, here's some of the latest news on the election audits: -- A.U.D.I.T. of Elections: Democrats Can’t Stem the Flow of Revelations No Matter How Hard They Try https://redstate.com/stu-in-sd/2021/07/09/a-u-d-i-t-of-elections-democrats-cant-stem-the-flow-of-revelations-no-matter-how-hard-they-try-n408164 (Redstate(7/9/2021); -- New Evidence Indicates Enough Illegal Votes In Georgia To Tip 2020 Results https://thefederalist.com/2021/07/09/new-evidence-indicates-enough-illegal-votes-in-georgia-to-tip-2020-results/ (Federalist, 10-Jul-2021) According to the latest Rasmussen poll, the number of people who believe that the election was rigged is increasing: Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll Jul 2 "How likely is it that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election?" Very or Somewhat Likely- White - 51% Black - 49% Oth Non-White - 56% Dem - 30% Unaffil - 51% GOP - 74% All Voters - 51% https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1410924418189217792 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-12-2021 (07-11-2021, 09:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Latest news about election audits Fixed. There has been less potential for vote fraud or electoral manipulation in the latest Presidential election than in any prior election. Some of the strongest evidence is that President Trump and the GOP did better than the mainstream media expected. He still lost. We have had close elections before (1960, 1976, 2000, 2004, and 2016) and they have all been settled in accordance with law. The 2020 Presidential election was not really close in the popular vote (a margin of 4.46%, which is in fact larger than the difference in 2012, when Obama won the popular vote by 3.86%). A nationwide shift of 0.64% would have given America a second term of Donald Trump. I'll spare you my prediction about how nasty life would now be if Trump were still President. Nineteen Eighty-Four and The Man in the High Castle are far better than my speculations. But Biden won, and things seem to be getting calmer. Quote:There are several election audits going on. They take a lot of time The audit in Arizona is utterly botched -- so badly that it ensures the result that you dread. It has had no controls for ensuring the integrity of the ballots after the audit.Above all, an audit is rightly done by people who have a professional disinterest in the results. Quote:In the meantime, here's some of the latest news on the election One state. Tell me again -- how many dead people voted? Or is the problem that people don't simply turn their ballots over to their employers to make the selections on the behalf of people who can't be trusted to make such important decisions as who can best govern America? Leaving the political choices to big landowners, tycoons, and industrialists would give us the sort of social policies associated with the likes of Agosto Pinochet. Quote:According to the latest Rasmussen poll, the number of people who believe It's over. It's as settled as the 2020 World Series. Approval for Joe Biden is typically over 50% (Rasmussen is a rare exception) with disapproval in the low 40's. We know how very close elections are decided -- in accordance with extant laws. Consider this: the vote for Representative from the 2nd Congressional district of Iowa was decided by 6 votes in the 2020. The loser, a Democrat, found that the House of Representatives would not challenge the result, and she withdrew her challenge. (We may see how she does in 2022). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-12-2021 ** 12-Jul-2021 World View: Cuba street protests at start of Crisis era
Cuba's government is in turmoil in the face of large anti-government protests that started over the weekend. Analysts are blaming three factors:
Analysts are comparing this to the 1994 student protests, which fizzled fairly quickly. However, today's protests are different because this is the beginning of a generational Crisis era. Cuba's last generational crisis war was Fidel Castro's revolution that climaxed in 1960. The new Crisis era began 58 years later, in 2018. Prior to 2018, Cuba was in an Unraveling era, when many of the Communist policies imposed by Fidel Castro began to unravel. They moved hundreds of thousands of people from government employment to private sector employment, including self-employment. They abandoned the core principal of Marxist Socialism, "From each according to abilities, to each according to needs." Instead, workers in the private sector will be able to earn high salaries. Today's new anti-government protests are larger and more widespread than the 1994 student protests. Since this is the beginning of a generational Crisis era, it's quite possible that it will spread, in the following weeks and months, into a re-fighting of Castro's revolution. -- Cuba: Thousands turn out to anti-government protests https://www.dw.com/en/cuba-thousands-turn-out-to-anti-government-protests/a-58234158 (Deutsche-Welle, 12-Jul-2021) -- Cuba protests: Three key issues that explain the rare unrest https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57802170 (BBC, 12-Jul-2021) -- Hundreds of people take to Tampa streets to show their support for protesters in Cuba https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/region-hillsborough/hundreds-of-people-take-to-tampa-streets-to-show-their-support-for-protesters-in-cuba (ABC, 12-Jul-2021) ** 16-Sep-10 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e100916.htm#e100916 ** 20-Apr-18 World View -- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e180420.htm#e180420 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-12-2021 ** 12-Jul-2021 World View: Election audits (07-12-2021, 01:22 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It's over. It is definitely not over. Far from it. Democrats like yourself are becoming desperate and hysterical as the audits proceed. Democrats are frozen in terror by the 75 million Trump supporters who overwhelmingly believe that the election was rigged, and there are more of them than they are of you. In fact, 30% of Democrats believe the election was rigged. No wonder your posts sound so desperate and hysterical. By the way, if you want to NOT sound desperate and hysterical, you might try the following: "We Democrats welcome the election audits, because they'll prove that the election was fair, and that Biden is the legitimate president, so the Trump supporters can accept that." Hahahahahahahahahaha RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-12-2021 Under the radar... it looks as if generational change might bring an end to Castro-era practices. The Commie regime in Cuba has only one arguable ally that can give it any effective support. The new boss is someone roughly the age of Barack Obama, which is now comparatively old (Obama turns 60 this year) for political leaders in much of the world. Generation X is approaching elderhood, at least among its first (Obama) wave. Quote:President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States stands with the Cuban people, as thousands protest against food and medicine shortages amid the coronavirus pandemic. It has been said to be the biggest anti-government protest in 30 years. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2021/07/11/cuba-protests-coronavirus-food-shortages-high-prices/7933067002/?csp=chromepush The new boss of Cuba can perhaps look to the nonagerian Mikhail Gorbachev as a reminder that the demise of a Commie regime is not personal doom. It has been thirty years now... Quote:Although many people tried to take out their cellphones and broadcast the protests live, Cuban authorities shut down internet service throughout the afternoon. Officers also charged protesters, barraging them with tear gas and arresting some. Freedom, vaccines, a generous pensioning-off of President Miguel Díaz-Canel, and keeping any semblance of a Cuban-American mafia (see also Sicilian, Neapolitan, Albanian, and Russian... also the Yakuza, Chinese triads and Latin-American drug cartels... it looks like a win-win as the best possible solution. I'd be delighted to see Cuba become another Costa Rica. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 07-12-2021 (07-12-2021, 11:01 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Jul-2021 World View: Election audits Apparently, you misunderstand the concept of forensic audits, becasue the bizarre audit in Arizona (and others planned for elsewhere) wouldn't pass muster in a kangaroo court, to say nothing of a real one. To be legitimate, the "evidence" (ballots, tallying machines, etc.) must be within a fully documented and controlled chain of custody, and that was shot to hell on day one. This is theater, and piss-poor theater at that. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-12-2021 (07-11-2021, 09:47 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 10-Jul-2021 World View: Shocks of understanding Old stuff, but give credit where it is due: African-Americans themselves! A few years ago I took a side trip from Detroit Metropolitan Airport on Interstate 96 in Oakland and Livingston Counties (Oakland County, including the cesspool Pontiac, is part of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, and Livingston County is the still-rural county on I-96 between the Detroit Metro and Lansing metro areas around 8 am. I expected to see heavy traffic going the opposite direction of me toward Detroit but expected light traffic the other way. Guess what? I saw heavy traffic going in my direction, and lots of black faces in the cars. I figured it unlikely that African-Americans had any special proclivity to work graveyard shifts, and I would not expect them to be headed toward Livingston County, which is still super-majority white (96.7%) returning home for the day, I could only figure that they were headed to work. Lansing and East Lansing? Maybe... but I am guessing that African-Americans in the opportunity-starved parts of Detroit are commuting to work. Fast food, retail, maybe some light manufacturing? That's one way to get work. Donald Trump had no program to solve unemployment in the Greater Detroit area. Those African-Americans did it the old-fashioned way: going where the jobs are, maybe taking thirty-mile or forty-mile one-way commutes each way. Quote:The 2019 Ukraine impeachment hearings were a complete shock to me, President Trump made such necessary. Trump tried to blackmail a foreign leader into doing some partisan dirty work on his behalf. Although hard bargains are part of the Presidential repertoire, such is typically done for some objective of foreign policy. This was far more objectionable than Iran-Contra, which led to some scathing editorials and Congressional speeches, but not to any impeachment. This is no more admirable than soliciting a bribe. Quote:The most bizarre shock came because I actually watched the [*]NPR and the BBC are highly respected for factual content in news stories. The difference between them and FoX News as purveyors of news, other than ideological stance, is that NPR and the BBC both fact-check. FoX News spins a story to fit an ideological position and agenda. Donald Trump is an inveterate liar whose word is useless unless someone backs it up with objective truth. As rarely as he tells the truth, waiting for him to tell it is about as futile as waiting for an alcoholic to lay off easily-available drink. Quote:Readers should be aware that the Democrats are using violence Tell me all about the violence and intimidation that Democrats could do. An inordinate number of votes were cast by mail, and post offices are not where one expects political or any other sort of violence. The biggest violence of 2020 was the COVID-19 plague which compelled many state legislatures to make absentee voting easy because there would be violence, in the form of a very nasty virus, lurking at the polls. One might as well let rattlesnakes loose at polling places as compel people to vote only in person, as COVID-19 has a higher death rate than rattler bites. OK, the rattlers were already in hibernation in the northern US, including the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but even in that, I had less cause to fear a rattler than someone with COVID-19. Rattlers retreat to avoid my heavy tread, and I retreat to avoid the horrible fangs. We democrats did not do our usual canvassing in 2020 out of concerns of safety of partisan activists and of voters, but Donald Trump held his mass rallies, super-spreader events. I do not yet know what the demographics of death from COVID-19 were among African-Americans in Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, but if the death rate was inordinately high, then we can all see why Donald Trump came closer to winning the election than many of us liberals expected. I am not accusing anyone of any malign plot, but... note well that mass inoculations were rare in the autumn of 2020. We shall see statistical evidence by 2022. You can also count on Democrats taking nothing for granted in 2022. We expect Republicans to operate folksy campaigns while front groups like Club for Growth, FreedomWorks!, the National Right-to-Work Committee, ALEC, etc. demonize anyone who fails to believe that no human suffering can ever be in excess if it allows the unlimited Power, Indulgence, and Greed (PIG -- as in the villainous critters of Orwell's Animal Farm) of American PIGS who walk upright. (A reminder -- pigs are not cute like the cartoon character "Porky". They are documented man-eaters. They are as lethal as dogs, but dogs are at least well-behaved and find us more desirable food sources alive than dead. Quote:The whole Democrat censorship regime was also a complete shock Parler is back in operation, but now with some constraints. If you wonder why it was shut down, then look at this: Quote:Parler (/ˈpɑːrlər/) is an American microblogging and social networking service. It has a significant user base of Donald Trump supporters, conservatives, conspiracy theorists, and far-right extremists.[9][10][11][12] Posts on the service often contain far-right content,[17] antisemitism,[24] and conspiracy theories such as QAnon.[28] Journalists have described Parler as an alt-tech alternative to Twitter, and users include those banned from mainstream social networks or who oppose their moderation policies.[9][12][29][*] [/url] [*]Ahem! Coordinating the Storming of the Winter Palace... Beer-Hall Putsch... January 6 takeover of the Capitol? It should have been shut down. Websites of criminal entities such as Silk Road have been shut down. By the way: explain, please, why Federico Klein, a Trump appointee, pled guilty in a plea bargain for his obvious, documented role in the Putsch. Quote:The darkness in America has only gotten worse since then. There Donny Devious instigated the attack. Quote:I recently wrote about a BBC podcast, an investigation into If you want to fault Democratic political leaders in the giant cities for inadequate suppression of violent crime, then go ahead, but contemplate also why Republicans win few elections in those cities. Maybe the Republican Party has taken over the racist component of the American electorate that the Democratic Party. Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does partisan politics. More significantly, the Republican Party is heavily enmeshed in the (white) part of the Religious Right. African-Americans are still much more religious on the average than white people, and traditionally African-American churches insulated themselves well from the Religious Right. The Religious Right, mostly non-denominational and loosely-affiliated Southern Baptist churches, was able to decimate mainline Protestant denominations in the Mountain and Deep South. ...Donald Trump is a useful idiot of Vladimir Putin. Now President Putin must deal honestly with Joe Biden. Should Putin get better in honest dealings, then that is how good negotiations work. *Pointless Profanity Expunged. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-14-2021 *** 15-Jul-21 World View -- South Africa tribal violence spreading and growing This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** South Africa tribal violence spreading and growing **** Burning warehouse in Durban following riots gives rise to fears of food and fuel shortages (Reuters) Communal violence is spreading in South Africa, led by members of the Zulu tribe. More than 70 people have been killed and more than 1,200 people have been arrested, as the violence continues into the eighth day. Rioters have been looting shopping centers, stores and warehouses, possibly emulating the antifa-blm looters in Portland and Chicago. There are already pockets of hunger in South Africa, and it's feared that the looting will make shortages of food and fuel worse. The rioting was triggered by the jailing of South Africa's ex-president Jacob Zuma, a charismatic and popular Zulu leader who was ousted from his own ANC party over accusations of corruption and rape. For several weeks, Zuma has been calling on his supporters to prevent his arrest by locking arms and blocking the police from arresting him. He has often been seen singing his favorite revolutionary song "Umshini Wami" (Bring me my machine gun), often accompanied by him swirling his hips and skillfully doing a traditional Zulu dance. He used that song frequently during his political campaigns. The two largest tribes in South Africa are the Zulu tribe and the Xhosa tribe. Between them, they make up a third of South Africa’s 55 million people. The African National Congress (ANC) is the only political party that has won elections since South Africa's independence in 1994. Thus, the leader of the ANC always goes on to become the president. Up until recently, the Zulu and Xhosa tribes have dominated the ANC. The ANC hero, Nelson Mandela, a Xhosa, became the first president of the ANC and of South Africa in 1994. He was followed by Mandela's hand-picked successor, Thabo Mbeki, another Xhosa. The ANC became sharply divided in Decenber 2007, when when Mbeki lost a bruising battle for ANC leadership with a Zulu, Jacob Zuma. **** **** Xenophobic violence during Jacob Zuma's term **** In 2008, xenophobic violence against immigrants from other African countries, originating in Alexandria, a suburb of the capital city Johannesburg, spread east into the Zulu heartland of Durban and west into Cape Town. The violence was spurred by a poor economy and a lack of jobs, with the accusations that other African immigrants were taking the good jobs. Tens of thousands of immigrants were forced to flee for their lives from their homes and businesses, often with no time to collect their belongings before their homes and businesses were looted and destroyed. The violence and looting were generally perpetrated by young South Africans from the Zulu and Xhosa tribes. (See "South Africa will create 'temporary shelters' for migrants, not 'refugee camps' (31-May-2008)" ) The xenophobic violence was repeated in 2015 when thousands of people, mostly foreigners from Zimbabwe and Malawi, fled for their lives, after mobs with machetes attacked them in the city of Durban. Durban is the largest city in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which is the heartland of the Zulu tribe. The anti-immigrant violence spread to Johannesburg. It's believed that the attacks were triggered by remarks made by Zulu king Goodwill Zwelithini, who said in a public speech, "We are requesting those who come from outside to please go back to their countries." ( "17-Apr-15 World View -- South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre" ) **** **** Cyril Ramaphosa, from the Venda tribe, becomes president **** Jacob Zuma was ousted from the party before his second term ended in 2018. He is facing 16 charges of corruption, fraud, graft and racketeering relating to a 1999 purchase of weapons and gear from European arms firms when he was deputy president. In 2006, he was in court for the alleged rape of a colleague's HIV-positive daughter. He was acquited of those charges, but not before bragging that he had unprotected sex with the woman, but avoided catching HIV by taking a shower after sex. A surprise candidate, Cyril Ramaphosa, won the ANC leadership in 2017, in a close battle with the favored Zulu candidate. Ramaphosa is a member of the Venda tribe, a small tribe with fewer than 700,000 people, living near the border with Zibabwe. Ramaphosa became president in the hope that he could be relatively neutral between the Zulus and Xhosas, and could resolve the divisiveness between those two tribes. One businessman voter was quoted as saying, <QUOTE>"There are not enough Venda to hijack the country. When Thabo Mbeki was president [from 1999 to 2008], you had to be Xhosa to get anywhere. Under Zuma, the Zulus have led the way. I am hoping that Cyril as a Venda will have to involve all South Africans because his own people are so few."<END QUOTE> There have been very divisive issues during Cyril Ramaphosa's term as president, and Ramaphosa has been successful in defusing most of them. The most explosive one was the proposal to confiscate the land of white farmers without compensation. Ramaphosa found a way to mitigate the land confiscation without compensation to make it less divisive. However, probably the most explosive issue of all has been the jailing of Jacob Zuma for corruption, and that has led to the current tribal violence that appears to be increasing. **** **** Brief generational history of South Africa **** Human existence has forever been controlled by one major law: That the population always grows more quickly than the food supply. This is the reason why every society has to have an existential, genocidal war every 80 years or so. The purpose of the war is to kill off enough people so that the survivors have enough food to eat. That appears to be what happened in southern Africa at the end of the 1700s. Population levels were increasing rapidly, and resources were increasingly scarce. The introduction of corn by the Europeans had the double effect of producing more food, but using more water to grow. Corn became a major staple, but there was massive disruption and suffering with declining rainfall at the end of the 1700s, followed by a calamitous ten-year drought that began about 1800. Presumably, this is the fault of "climate change." Kingdoms that had existed side by side in peace for decades began to fight each other for resources. The result was a massive war called the Mfecane ("the crushing") that climaxed in 1828. The Mfecane gave rise to Shaka, considered to be possibly the greatest African warrior in history. Shaka introduced many new warfare techniques. One of the best known was to use short spears, which required close combat with the enemy, rather than long spears, which would be thrown but would not always be effective. By the mid-1820s, Shaka ruled a kingdom of more than 100,000 people with a standing army of 40,000 men. The great Zulu Empire lasted for decades, until it was destroyed by the British in 1879 in the bloody Anglo-Zulu war. At the climax of that crisis war, the Zulus were dispersed, and the Zulu nation ended. South Africa's last generational Crisis war was World War II. Since South Africa was part of the British Empire, it fought on the side of the allies, although some tribal factions wished to side with the Germans or stay neutral. The British colonists introduced Apartheid during the 1940s, but it was abolished in the generational Awakening era of the 1990s that led to South African independence, an Awakening era climax. When I talk about the world in today's generational Crisis era, I talk about increasing nationalism and xenophobia in almost every nation. The same is true on a tribal basis in South Africa. The Zulus have become extremely nationalistic, and this is driving the current round of looting and rioting. But this time the violence is directed at membrs of other South African tribes, not just a "immigrants" from other African countries, as occurred in 2008 and 2015. As the world approaches a new world war, South Africa can be expected to be involved in two different wars. One war will be as a participant in the world war on the side of either China or the West -- to be decided -- and the other will be an internal civil war, refighting the battles of the Mfecane. **** **** Rewriting the history of the Mfecane **** Just as China blames all its failures on the 1840s Opium Wars, some South African historians are blaming all their failures on the Mfecane, and blaming the Mfecane on the Europeans. In 1988, a historian named Julian Cobbing published a paper on "The Mfecane As Alibi." He argued that the Mfecane was caused by the European and Brazilian slave trade, and if it had been for the Europeans, then the Mfecan would never have occurred. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is nonsense. As we said, there was overpopulation and a calamitous drought at the beginning of the 1800s, and this is exactly the formula for a generational crisis war, a war of extermination, whose purpose is to kill off enough people so that the survivors will have enough to eat. So the Mfecane would have occurred with or without the Europeans. The same thing is happening today, around the world. A report earlier this week by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says that "world hunger and malnutrition levels worsened dramatically last year, with most of the increase likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic." This continued and accelerated a trend that had already been occurring prior to the pandemic. According to the report, "Unfortunately, the pandemic continues to expose weaknesses in our food systems, which threaten the lives and livelihoods of people around the world. No region of the world has been spared." The increase in hunger and malnutrition means that there is less food per capita in the world. For populations living on the margin, this means that they will have to fight for enough food to feed themselves and their families. This usually translates into anti-government protests, such as the ones we see today in South Africa and Cuba, and leads to either civil wars or external wars. *** Cuba street protests at start of its generational Crisis era Cuba's government is in turmoil in the face of large anti-government protests that started over the weekend. Analysts are blaming three factors:
Analysts are comparing this to the 1994 student protests, which fizzled fairly quickly. However, today's protests are different because this is the beginning of a generational Crisis era. Cuba's last generational crisis war was Fidel Castro's revolution that climaxed in 1960. The new Crisis era began 58 years later, in 2018. Prior to 2018, Cuba was in an Unraveling era, when many of the Communist policies imposed by Fidel Castro began to unravel. They moved hundreds of thousands of people from government employment to private sector employment, including self-employment. They abandoned the core principal of Marxist Socialism, "From each according to abilities, to each according to needs." Instead, workers in the private sector will be able to earn high salaries. Today's new anti-government protests are larger and more widespread than the 1994 student protests. Since this is the beginning of a generational Crisis era, it's quite possible that it will spread, in the following weeks and months, into a re-fighting of Castro's revolution. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Africa, Durban, Johnanessburg, Jacob Zuma, Umshini Wami, Bring me my machine gun, African National Congress, ANC, KwaZulu-Natal, Goodwill Zwelithini, Cyril Ramaphosa, Mfecane, Shaka, Julian Cobbing Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-15-2021 Let's start by defining what genocide is and is not. Genocide is the deliberate, calculated plot and action to destroy or decimate a culture or ethnic group or reckless mistreatment of people in ways that lead to that group's decimation or annihilation. Quote:The United Nations Genocide Convention, which was established in 1948, defines genocide as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such" including the killing of its members, causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group, deliberately imposing living conditions that seek to "bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part", preventing births, or forcibly transferring children out of the group to another group. Victims have to be deliberately, not randomly, targeted because of their real or perceived membership of one of the four groups outlined in the above definition.[4][5][6][7] This does not apply to voluntary assimilation. An African-American man marrying and having mixed-race (defined within the society as non-white) by a white woman in a consensual relationship is not committing genocide, although vehement racists might see such as the "submergence" of the "white race", as was so with the likes of the racists Lothrop Stoddard and Madison Grant about a century ago and with neo-Nazi scum today. . . Obviously, any systematic murders of a 'race', 'ethnicity', or religious group, most infamously the Holocaust, represent the definitive genocide. If you are discussing the Turkish genocides of Greek and Armenian peoples in the Ottoman Empire or the Hutu attempt to exterminate Tutsi people in Rwanda, then you are right. Note that the definition excluded social classes, perhaps (weasel words!) to avoid offending the Soviet Union, which had just done that. In recent times the United States has come to include such a horror as the extermination of kulaks in the Soviet Union as a part of its legal definition. Mass rapes would seem to be mental harm. This was not considered in 1948, as it was unthinkable. To be sure the Soviet Army had plenty of 'rape machines" as soldiers... but those, if caught, risked execution. Rape is a violation of every military code. if not for its wrongness, then for its compromise of military discipline. More blatantly, enslavement would be a cause of mental harm for obliteration of an earlier culture (read David Hackett Fischer's Albion's Seed about the establishment of race-based slavery in the British colonies, and you will find an account of the complete destruction of any African culture in "fresh" slaves. Perhaps blatant treatment of others as so subordinate that their children can be easily diverted from school to 'labor" as a public policy (I think of Apartheid as a prime example, but Jim Crow practice, if more 'moderate' than Apartheid would serve as an example, too. Forced conversions to the majority religion? That was rarely done in 1948, but the Spanish Inquisition might have qualified. If one reverted to 'old ways', such as by refusing to eat pork (anathemas under Islamic and Jewish dietary laws alike) or performed some distinctive ritual characteristic of the old religion one might be killed for that. ISIS could be in huge trouble for something of that type. In my opinion there is nothing wrong with such behavior that a well-tied rope and the appropriate drop could not solve in the perpetrator. No culture can survive without economic viability. A farming community must not be compelled to surrender its farms. People who survive due to skilled trades or business ownership must not be denied the right to continue in such roles. Deliberate imposition of economic ruin upon an ethnic or religious group might be one stage of a process that leads to extermination, as with Jews in Nazi Germany. The Trail of Tears, intended to remove First Peoples from the American Southeast to the infertile semidesert of what is now Oklahoma. Breaking families is one of the most personally-destructive deeds possible to the human psyche. I will spare you some recent drama. Prevention of births can be done through many means, including sterilization, deliberate separation of people by gender of the same group if of child-bearing age, and prevention of cohabitation. To be sure, simply reducing birth rates (the most effective means is to keep people in school as long as possible; the gigantic families of one time were the norm when the completion of even elementary education was no certainty. But that, one assumes, is even-handed. Having three children instead of ten means a lower birth rate; in a poor country that also means much less likelihood of famines that overpopulation makes a near certainty. ... I see the destructive results of global warming having the potential for much the same effects as genocide. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-15-2021 ** 15-Jul-2021 World View: Cuba and South Africa thinker Wrote:> As the only Cuban on this forum that I know of I would like to put This wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Chinese Communists have been using their "magic weapon" -- the infiltration of Chinese people in every country in every possible way, in its "United Front" program. So they'll send prostitutes to Eric Swalwell and other Democrats, or will send thugs to help Maduro, and possibly to Cuba. This is part of the CCP's delusional vision of the future where the Chinese Communists run the world, all the nations of the world live under Chinese governance in peace and harmony. Guest Wrote:> Yes, I have lived in Latin America, and yes, the Cubans provide The cornerstone of China's delusional world view is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which gives China a foothold in hundreds of countries. However, the CCP intention is that by using debt trap diplomacy to build a railway or a port they think that they've won the hearts and minds of the people in that country, which is obviously completely delusional. My feeling has been that China's BRI program is overextended, and that many of the loans are not being repaid. This would give China the option of foreclosing on the loan, but this would defeat their long-term delusional goal of getting everyone to agree to letting China rule the world. So when you say that the Chinese could be overwhelmed in Latin America, I think that's quite possible. The Latin American countries reflexibly blame every problem on the United States, but it wouldn't take much for them to start blaming their problems on China. thinker Wrote:> On South Africa, I went on safari to South Africa during the Obama It's interesting that the white South Africans have seen this tribal conflict coming. The mainstream media these days is always full of lies, and in South Africa these days the mainstream media pretend that tribal differences those exist. That's why my article emphasizes tribal conflicts from the first line, and that's why the article references 27 different sources plus 9 related articles. I access this many sources to make sure that I have my facts right. I'm sorry that I didn't go even further and get into the issue of attacks on Indians: Quote:> "INDIAN PEOPLE TARGETED As a separate issue, Aeden has tracked down a story about how the left in South Africa is following the lead of the American Democrat party by provoking an artificial crisis in order, in South Africa, to perpetrate a coup: Quote:> "Under investigation: Twelve masterminds planned and This is the same technique the Democrats used in the January 6 "insurrection" hoax -- create a crisis, lie about the crisis, and then "never let a crisis go to waste," in this case by creating a Stalinist Fascist regime that includes censorship of all political enemies. In the past few months I've become aware of the brilliance of the US Constitution and its ability to withstand these kinds of crises, and I expect that to happen again, especially as audits in Arizona, Georgia and other states are proving that the Democrats rigged the 2020 election. However, we have a sort of comparison here. The far-left in America and South Africa are using the same tactics to get dictatorial control of their respective governments. We can watch the two situations in parallel, to see which of the two dictator attempts are successful. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-16-2021 ** 16-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear war Jack Edwards" Wrote:Quote:The CCP will not go down easy. Nukes are most certainly tim Wrote:> And yet we have people here, who are supposedly students of It's the triumph of self-delusion over history and common sense. Japan has just changed its maps so that Taiwan is clearly no longer part of China. -- Japan removes Taiwan from China map in defense white paper https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4248204 (Taiwan News, 14-Jul-2021) The Chinese are thirsting for revenge for WW II, and the Japanese are taking a "fuck you" attitude to China. This is going to infuriate both sides considerably. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019 Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ |