Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 08-Aug-2021 World View: Still skeptical Navigator Wrote:> I am still skeptical. I have asked some well connected sources to So in this case, I spent several days researching these issues, I collected a number of sources, and I summarized them in my post. But none of that research means anything to you. It's as if I never did it. You must think that I'm a credulous idiot. You just come in, announce that you're skeptical, and say that you'll track down some REAL sources, some "well-connected" sources. Your main reason is that it was originally published in 2005 by the Epoch Times. So what exactly are you saying? That the reporter at the Epoch Times hated the CCP, so he made the whole thing up, and that everyone is complete fooled? Is that what you're suggesting? If that's what you think, please say so, because I'd like to see you make that argument. It's not true that Nyquist was the only source. Christoph Becker was also a source. If you read Nyquist's blog, he references a number of sources of his own. We're not just credulous idiots who believe anything we read. We cross-check everything with other sources, and when the sources match up, we reasonably conclude that the claims are likely to be correct. Here's another source for you to check out: -- Chi Haotian / Is Nazi China emerging? http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/is-nazi-china-emerging/0/ (Indian Defense Review, 25-Sep-2011) This article was written ten years ago, and the author debated whether Chi Haotian's letter was authentic, and came to the same conclusion as I did: that if it hadn't been authentic, then someone would have said so. It was for the same reason -- that no Chinese officials have denied the validity of the story. I'm quite familiar with the story behind the Falun Gong and the Epoch Times, but perhaps you don't understand how the world works. The NY Times can lie all it wants. Russia Today can lie all it wants. China Daily can lie all it wants. If they're caught lying, they can always depend on many others to come to their defense. But that's not true of the Epoch Times. When it posts something like the Chi Haotian story, then if there's an error it will be subject to enormous ridicule, and disavowal. But that didn't happen with this story. In fact, there's been almost silence ever since the story was published. In 16 years, there has been no word from Chinese officials including Chi. Why is that? Because they don't want to call attention to the article. They'd rather stick with silence, and just count on people like you to reject it because you're "skeptical." They know that the speech is valid, so they're better off leaving people like you "skeptical." The Chinese are good at manipulating Westerners, and even know how to manipulate Westerners with silence. So who are your "well-connected" sources? Are they Chinese officials or "well-connected" to Chinese officials? If they gave you an answer either confirming or repudiating Chi's speech, that would actually be major international news. So when you hear back from your "well-connected" friends, please be certain to post what they tell you. I'm very interested in hearing. I predict that your "well-connected" friends will either not answer at all or will give a non-committal answer, because if they said anything else, the Chinese Communists would throw them into a pit. They would rather say nothing, because they know you won't bother to do any actual research, and you'll just remain "skeptical." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Coddling idiots spottybrowncow Wrote:> I've been following this forum for about 15 years. It's my most You make a very good point. I'm 77 years old and really pissed off that I'm still alive. Ornery is a mild word for what I feel. 20 years ago, I might have coddled an idiot for fear that I might need him in ten years. But today I know I won't need him in ten years because I'll be dead (I hope). So if I do a lot of research and someone ignores all that research and just says "I'm skeptical," after doing no research whatsoever but going on "feelings," then I have no need or desire to coddle. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in China A web site reader has called my attention to medical studies in South America that raise the question of whether Chinese vaccines are very effective against the lambda variant. -- Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest Lambda https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259673v1 (Medrxiv, 1-Jul-2021) This corresponds to more prosaically written reports that the many people who have received the Sinovac or Sinopharm vaccines are still getting sick from Covid. This may be not because the vaccine is initially ineffective, but instead because its effectiveness wears off within a few months. And this corresponds to reports that the delta variant is spreading rapidly within China itself:
If the virus continues to spread in China, it would be a major political disaster for Xi Jinping, who has essentially bet his leadership on having already won the historic war against Covid, claiming proof that Communism is superior to Western Democracies. Not only was the virus not conquered in China, as Xi claimed, but the China vaccines have been shown to be inferior to vaccines from the hated democracies. It's now clear that the Wuhan Virus Event was supposed to work as follows:
The Wuhan Virus Event was to be some sort of "beta test" of technology to develop lethal viruses and spread them around the world. Unfortunately for them, it backfired badly because it's clear to pretty much everyone outside of China that China is completely to blame. This has also been one of several events that have temporarily derailed Xi Jinping's plan for a major nuclear attack to defeat it in one blow, and then use a biological weapon to "clean America up" so that its land can be colonized by the Chinese. There have been a string of events that have temporarily derailed Xi Jinping's plans and threw him off his script:
Xi Jinping is getting desperate to show some results. I've been expecting him to announce or do something major in the Sep-Oct time frame. This might be a war, or it might be something domestic. The spread of the virus in China must be really throwing him off his game, and opening him up to enormous criticisms and threats from opposing factions. One sign is that China has been taking steps to cut itself off financially from the West. I'm not sure what this is signaling, but it could be something major. ---- Sources: -- China records 94 more locally transmitted cases, including 41 in flood-ravaged Henan province https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3144336/coronavirus-china-tests-tens-millions-second-wave-virus-hits-17 (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 9-Aug-2021) -- China Punishes Dozens of Officials as Delta Outbreaks Spread https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/china-punishes-local-officials-as-its-delta-outbreaks-expands (Bloomberg, 9-Aug-2021) -- Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57845644 (BBC, 19-Jul-2021) -- China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58095909 (BBC, 6-Aug-2021) -- Infectivity and immune escape of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest Lambda https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259673v1 (Medrxiv, 1-Jul-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Epoch Times Navigator Wrote:> 6. Epoch Times does get in trouble, and get ridiculed. Reference The problem is that all your multiple points about the Epoch Times are completely irrelevant, unless you're claiming that the Epoch Times manufactured the letter, which is why I asked you about that. Otherwise, it's completely illogical to reference the Epoch Times, since the Chi Haotian letter has to be judged on its own, irrespective of where it was first published. The fact that the Epoch Times got the scoop by being the first to publish the letter (or by being the only media source to dare to publish the letter and risk the wrath of the Chinese Communists) is completely irrelevant. Navigator Wrote:> 3. I do not think you are an idiot. I am just skeptical of I have no idea what you mean by saying that I was originally inflammatory. I just went back and read my original posts about the Haotian speech, including the web log article, and I don't see anything that was inflammatory. In fact, I was trying very hard not to be inflammatory, since I knew "skeptical" people would call me on it. Also the Chi Haotian letter itself is not inflammatory -- not in the context of Communist Chinese culture. As I've said several times, I've done an enormous amount of research. In the past, I've posted thousands of articles on China, and I've written an entire book on China. As I've said, I've immersed myself in research on this letter the last few days. Chi's speech is just the next step. That is, Mao Zedong laid down his theory, Deng Xiaoping advanced that theory, and Chi Haotian's speech advances Communist Party theory even further. The big advance in Communist Party theory came about after the Tiananmen Square massacre and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Chi's speech describes the evolution of theory from Mao to Deng and then in the 90s, and projects that theory into the future by specifying what action must be taken. If you want to do some actual research, rather than just rejecting all the research I've done, then read the following, which I referenced earlier: -- China’s Role in the Chemical and Biological Disarmament Regimes -- Eric Croddy https://www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/npr/91crod.pdf (NonProliferation.org, March 2002) This is an American analysis that corresponds closely to the Chi Haotian analysis. In particular, it covers the plan for nuclear and biological weapons, so those parts of Chi's speech are not extremist. So really the only "extremist" part of Chi's speech, and the part that I found most startling, was the strategy to defeat America "in one big blow," and then use biochemical weapons to "clean up America" so that the Chinese can colonize. But once again, Chi shows that this was the logical next step from things that Mao and Deng said, especially havling suffered through the One Child Policy for thirty years. Here's something to keep in mind: The Chi Haotion speech, if valid, is not just an ordinary leak. It's a leak of the entire Chinese Communist military strategy, from top to bottom. It's no wonder that they're responding to it with silence. Still, I'd be very interested in hearing what your well-connected military and intelligence friends have to say, if they're willing. As I said, I predict silence. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 09-Aug-2021 World View: Being inflammatory Navigator Wrote:> The speech is what I consider inflammatory, not you. Actually, you did call me inflammatory in your last response. But let's put that aside. Please tell me what part of Chi Haotian's speech you find inflammatory. Please extract an actual quote. I'll do some additional research, and see if I can find some independent corroboration or explanation. Note that you cannot claim that the Wuhan Virus Event was an inflammatory part of Chi's speech, since it was not part of his speech. The question is whether the speech itself is inflammatory. I claim that it isn't. It's actually an extremely clear, well-reasoned, logical explanation of Chinese Communist Party military strategy. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 09-Aug-2021 World View: What is inflammatory? Navigator Wrote:> I have never had any intention to call you "inflammatory". This You're absolutely right that things like "kill women, children and POWs" and "colonize the USA land" are inflammatory, but only in the Western culture. They are NOT inflammatory in the Chinese culture. Sun Tzu wrote the Art of War around 500 BC. This book is almost like the Bible in China's culture. It advocates deception and utter ruthlessness in conducting war. These recommendations are incorporated into Chi Haotin's strategy speech. About four centuries after Sun Tzu wrote the Art of War, a Chinese historian named Sima Qian wrote a biography of Sun Tzu. It included an anecdote which shows the ruthlessnes of Sun Tzu. This anecdote may or may not be true, but that makes no difference. The anecdote is an accepted part of Chinese culture, especially military culture. Here is the anecdote: Quote:> "Sun Tzu Wu was a native of the Ch`i State. His ART OF This is not some simple story, like George Washington cutting down the cherry tree and saying "I cannot tell a lie." This is deeply embued into Chinese culture. So when you say that talking about killing women, children and POWs is inflammatory, or that colonizing America is inflammatory, you're saying inflammatory in the context of Western culture. But not in Chinese culture. When you study, as I have, the atrocities that the Japanese committed on the Chinese during the Sino-Japanese war (1937-45), then you realize very quickly that the culture in the Asian nations is very, very different than Western culture. In the context of the Chinese culture, Chi Haotian's speech is absolutely not inflammatory. As I said previously, it's actually an extremely clear, well-reasoned, logical exposition of Chinese Communist Party military strategy, RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-10-2021 ** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Origins of Chi Haotian's speech Tom Mazanec" Wrote:> Why did Chi blab this way? Wouldn’t it be better to make these I don't think that Chi himself blabbed, though I don't know. I would suspect that someone else blabbed. Chi gave the speech in 2003 just before he retired. It's believed that he gave the speech to high-level Communist Party cadres, probably as a final act to pass on his knowledge to younger members of the Party. According to the Indian Defense Review in 2011: "Chi Haotian’s speeches were posted on Chinese language websites, http://www.peacehall.com on February 15, 2005 and on http://www.boxun.com on April 23, 2005. The contents of the speeches have not been contradicted by official sources in China. The background of the posted speeches remains a mystery." http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/is-nazi-china-emerging/0/ I'm doing additional research analyzing the speech and its origins, and I'll post the information when I have it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-11-2021 *** 12-Aug-21 World View -- Delta variant of Covid-19 spreading much faster than expected This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Delta variant of Covid-19 spreading much faster than expected **** Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus Delta variant in China (Bloomberg) The atmosphere in Washington with regard to things like masks and vaccinations is so toxic and vitriolic that it's almost unbearable to watch. The situation with masks is especially confusing, since the "science" about the effectiveness of different types of masks is ambiguous, and some children are unable to breathe wearing masks. The Delta variant of Covid-19 was first detected in India. It is now spreading rapidly within the United States and other countries. It threatens to get much worse in the fall, and to force more lockdowns, including school closures. The reason is that the Delta variant is twice as effective as the original virus in spreading from person to person. So you should be prepared, Dear Reader, for a fall and winter that's worse than last year. You may be forced into lockdowns and school closures that you don't want. Making judgments about Covid variants is well outside my skill set, so I won't attempt it. However, I've provided some credible mostly non-ideological sources at the end of this article, and you can read through those sources for information. The most important news is that there are additional variants coming. The "Delta Plus" and "Lambda" variants are spreading in other countries, but their potential effect in the United States is not yet known. Some experts are predicting far more dangerous variants on the horizon. Again, making a judgment about these is outside my skill set, but there are articles referenced below that tell you about them. I'm not going to tell you, Dear Reader, to wear masks or get vaccinated. That's not my place. But I am going to tell you to make contingency plans for yourself and your family in case these new dangerous variants start spreading. Follow the motto of the Boy Scouts and always "Be Prepared" for what comes next. **** **** Delta variant spreads across China **** Xi Jinping gave several speeches last year, claiming that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had won a historic battle against Covid (Wuhan Coronavirus) and that this proved the superiority of the Chinese Communism to Western democracies, which were still struggling with the virus. This year, the CCP and Xi Jinping are facing the possibility of major humiliation, as the Delta variant spreads across China. The CCP is doing everything possible, including mandatory testing and lockdowns, to kill off the virus. If they're successful, it will be another great victory for the CCP. But if they fail, then it may threaten the leadership of Xi Jinping. In my previous newsletter, I referenced a plan presented by Chinese General Chi Haotian in a speech just as he was retiring in 2003. That was a plan to solve China's perennial problem of overpopulation. His solution is to colonize other lands, specifically the United States, by defeating it with nuclear weapons, and then using biochemical weapons to "clean up America" and kill any people left behind. so that the Chinese can take over. (See "31-Jul-21 World View -- Wuhan Coronavirus -- Thinking the Unthinkable" ) This plan is completely insane from the Western point of view, which honors individual human life. The Falun Gong paper Epoch Times, which first leaked the full text of the speech in 2005, refers to it as the "Doomsday Crazy Gambling Plan" and to the CCP as the "Gongshi Blood Company." However, in the Chinese culture, which does NOT value individual human life, this plan is quite reasonable, since a way must be found to solve the problem of overpopulation. Mao Zedong had said that he would gladly sacrifice half of China's population if it meant killing all the Americans. Whether Chi Haotian's speech was authentic and valid has been the subject of a lengthy debate in the Generational Dynamics forum, starting around here: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=62949#p62949 So that brings us back to Covid-19, the Wuhan Coronavirus. We now know with almost complete certainty that the virus was developed in the Wuhan Virology Lab, and that it escaped, either accidentally or intentionally, at some point prior to September 12, 2019, which was the date when the Wuhan Virology Lab deleted its Virus Database in the middle of the night. Once the virus started spreading through the Wuhan population, China's then actions are clear. There was a deep coverup. The CCP encouraged travel to and from Wuhan from anywhere in the world, except within China itself. This was deliberate, and it spread the virus to 180 countries, while protecting China. It's now believed that the CCP thought that they could release the virus into the world, while protecting China, and completely escape blame, and furthermore, claim credit as the first and best country to defeat the virus. In my opinion, this plan has backfired badly. Releasing the virus into the world was apparently some kind of "beta test" to develop technology of using biological weapons. This is insane, but in the Chinese culture which values an individual human life as being worth zero, this is quite possible. Instead, China is being universally blamed for spreading the virus. Furthermore, mutations of the virus, including the Delta variant, are spreading across China, humiliating Xi Jinping and the CCP in two ways: They prove that China did NOT defeat the virus in 2020, and they expose the weakness of China's own locally developed vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm. There are many things that the Chinese Communists do that are insane by Western standards. For example, of Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward (1958-59), possibly the stupidest policy of any country in the history of the world, killed tens of millions of innocent people for no reason at all, destroying China's economy for decades. Since then, the Tiananmen Square massacre or the massive torture, beating, and enslavement of millions of Uighurs have all been insane policies. But those are Western culture judgments. In the Chinese culture, the Great Leap Forward may not have been a disaster after all. Today, the population of China is 1.4 billion. If 50 million Chinese were killed today, you would still have 1.4 billion people. The Wuhan Virus Event backfired badly on the CCP. To save face, Xi Jinping may have to do something drastic. We can only wait to see. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, Wuhan Virology Lab, General Chi Haotian, Tiananmen Square, Mao Zedong, Delta variant, Delta Plus variant, Lambda variant, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Sinovac, Sinopharm Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-12-2021 The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA? So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization? On the other hand, I can easily imagine nukes being part of scenario in which the mainland either invades Taiwan, or tries to bring Taiwan to its knees with a blockade. If not actually detonated, then used to bully. One tactic might be to threaten Japan or South Korea with nukes to dissuade the USA from intervening RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-12-2021 (08-12-2021, 09:25 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA? So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization? For some period in the past, there were neutron weapons (though no evidence that any still exist inany weapons aresenal). If produced and used, they cause virtually no blast-effect damage, the neutrons kill all life, and the infrastructre is left intact for future use. Jimmy Carter considered building pure-fussion versions, but changed his mind. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-14-2021 I have seen Covid compared to the Spanish flu, which hit the world about a century ago. Imagine if the Spanish flu hit the world during the late 1930s-the years leading up to World War II. This suggests where we are today. Covid, with international politics turning very dangerous in east Asia. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-14-2021 (08-12-2021, 10:09 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-12-2021, 09:25 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Chinese use nukes to depopulate the USA? So...the Chinese would view a radioactive waste land as ripe for colonization? The situation is not victory if one has won nothing. I can define three sorts of victories: 1. Whole or partial extermination of an enemy populace while seizing what had been its assets, such as real estate and movable wealth. Example (and arguably the most infamous): the Holocaust. 2. Complete subjection of an enemy populace as slaves or serfs while taking over its real and portable assets, perhaps after destroying any potential leaders. Example: Nazi treatment of the Poles and Slavic peoples of the western Soviet Union. 3. Annihilation of the culture of a subjected people through compulsory or near-compulsory assimilation, although the subject people become a lesser caste aside from a few selected collaborators. Example: Spanish treatment of the First Peoples of the conquered Aztec and Inca empires. 4. Destruction of the will of an enemy nation to wage further resistance by making clear that property will not be seized, and people will not be mistreated. US and British treatment of Germans, Italians, and Japanese after WWII. Guilty people may be prosecuted and executed, but that is as far as it goes. There is no victory if there are no people to subject or assets suitable for seizing. Deciding not to subject or expropriate is itself a choice for winning the peace. Who wants Chernobyl? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Asian culture John Wrote:> ...you realize very quickly that the culture in the Asian nations thomasglee Wrote:> Trying to get Westerners - who have never lived in Asia or studied Yes, and since you lived in Asia for 20 years, you really understand Asian culture much better than almost all Americans. Still, the Americans will learn again about Asian culture during the next war. Loony left idiots in the Democrat party are particularly clueless, and they will be the most shocked by what happens -- assuming they survive. Americans learned in the last war from things like the Bataan Death March, but those lessons have been forgotten. The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun. Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us. There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after. -Solomon RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Who blabbed? tim Wrote:> I doubt its that unusual for a crisis era. You make a good point. I hadn't looked at it that way, but Chi Haotian may have been really proud of his speech, and wanted more people to see it. The more I read the speech, the more I realize that it's a brilliant masterpiece of military strategy and reasoning, well-grounded in Chinese history and in Communist Party theory of Mao Zedong, Deng Xioaping, and others. The idea that San Renxing, the Epoch Times reporter, could have fabricated this long, complex, brilliant speech is absurd. So I can imagine that Chi Haotian gave this brilliant speech in 2003, and then retired. He was very proud of this speech, so two years later he got permission to post it on boxum.com, assuming that no one in the West would take it seriously. And the comparison to Hitler's Mein Kampf is relevant as well. By publishing the speech, he educates the true believers, while the non-believers will simply ignore it. So maybe Mazanec is right: Chi Haotian blabbed. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 10-Aug-2021 World View: Long Texts topic I created a new topic called "Long Texts" as a place to put long texts, rather than have to include lengthy texts in news posts. Here are the texts that I've included so far: *** The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian - 2003 *** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63225#p63225 This is the text of the Chi Haotian speech. *** Epoch Times - Original article on Chi Haotian speech - 8/1/2005 *** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63226#p63226 This is a rough machine translation of the Epoch Times analysis that accompanied their release of the Chi Haotian speech. This is really mind-blowing. *** Jeff Nyquist comments *** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=63227#p63227 These are really interesting comments by Jeff Nyquist that don't appear in his blog entries. He tells how at first he thought the Chi Haotian speech was a joke, but after two years he changed his mind. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 11-Aug-2021 World View: CPI As I understand it, the CPI is at 5.4%, in line with 5.39% last month. The leveling off may indicate that the Law of Reversion of the Mean is kicking in, though we can't be sure for a few more months. I've updated my "Historical Consumer Price Index Change" table that I posted earlier this year: http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 11-Aug-2021 World View: Computing inflation Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Do you realize that the government has changed and constantly Let me try this a different way that should (if there's any sense left in the world) end the argument. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a data series that has been published for a long time by the Labor Department. I am applying the Law of Reversion of the Mean to this series, combined with observations about public debt, the velocity of money, and generational era. This is pretty much a mathematical, non-ideological, completely mechanical calculation. I actually have no dog in this fight other than to use these mathematical tools and report the result. If the CPI were to jump to hyperinflationary levels, then my tools would be wrong and I'd have to reexamine the tools, but so far that hasn't been necessary. I agree that changes to the CPI are relevant to the methodology I use, but so far this hasn't been a problem. In particular, if the Labor Dept "miscomputes" the CPI in the same way every month, then the Law of Reversion of the Mean should still apply. To put it another way, if the Labor Dept uses a mathematical, non-ideological, completely mechanical method for computing the CPI each month, and the CPI is wrong in the same way each month, then the methology that I use should still work. Questions like whether I personally have ever had a decrease in living expenses are perhaps interesting (though invasive), but irrelevant. The methodology that I use is not affected by my personal living expenses. So my point is that you may have a completely different way of computing inflation. Your way of computing inflation may include measuring your own living expenses, or the living expenses of others. That's fine, but irrelevant to my computation. If, by chance, you've compiled the values of your version of inflation each month for the last few decades, then post the results and I'll try applying the Law of the Reversion of the Mean to your data series, and see what we come up with. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 12-Aug-2021 World View: Scenario in reverse FullMoon Wrote:> How much of this scenario would true for our side as well? You've So you're wondering if the American armed forces would conduct a major nuclear attack on China, then use biological weapons to "clean up China" by killing all the people so that Americans can then go and colonize China? Is that what you're asking me? Lol! I don't think so. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 12-Aug-2021 World View: Mutual annihiliation bankerswars Wrote:> Hi John, could you please explain the relationship between Britain England and France have a long history of animosity and crisis wars (Camelot, Norman Conquest, Hundred Years War, Thirty Years War, War of the Spanish Succession, Napoleonic Wars). But in World War II, France and England were united against Nazi Germany, so they didn't fight each other. bankerswars Wrote:> Please also explain how Mutually Assured Destruction, or the It doesn't prevent wars at all. Quite the contrary. It means that one party will want to annihilate the other side quickly, before it has a chance to retaliate. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021 ** 13-Aug-2021 World View: Invasions of America JRNyquist Wrote:> I know from my discussions with a Russian defector, that Russia DaKardii Wrote:> If Russia was planning to ally with China for a war against the spottybrowncow Wrote:> I don't think we are really capable of establishing that. DaKardii Wrote:> The closest China and Russia are to an alliance is the alleged Reading through Jeff Nyquist's blog, it seems clear that Nyquist believes that Russia is as much a threat to America as China is. As both of you know, I don't believe that there's any possibility of that for any number of reasons, including the reason that you gave that the land-starved Chinese military want Russia's land, and the sex-starved Chinese men want Russia's women. Both Russia and Iran are now sucking up to China because China supports them in the UN security council, and because China goes around US sanctions. Russia's economy is particularly desperate, so Putin is begging Xi to buy Russian oil and weapons, and is probably making promises to help Xi's invasion of Japan or America in exchange for getting Alaska and northern Canada -- which they may or may not intend to fulfill. Why did Stalin sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement with Hitler? Was Russia's economy as desperate at that time as it is today? I don't know. Nyquist has also mentioned another comparison -- an unfulfilled agreement by Germany and Mexico in 1917 where Mexico would support a German invasion of America in return for getting back its lost territories of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. (However, California would be reserved for Japan.) https://cosec.bit.uni-bonn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/publications/pubs/gat07a.pdf |