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+--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html)
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021
** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Haiti earthquake
There is probably no country in the world where the people
are more miserable because of disease and poverty, especially
after a massive earthquake in 2010.
Apparently there's been another massive earthquake this morning.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/magnitude-7-quake-strikes-western-haiti-usgs-2021-08-14/
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021
** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Planning For Death
Tom Mazanec" Wrote:> I have just been diagnosed with early stage dementia. Naturally,
> this has changed my views of my personal future dramatically.
> What advice can you give for someone who will have to deal with
> this personal "storm" at the same time the world is dealing with
> its own?
There are several things you should do to plan for the future.
I've been forgetful my whole life, but it's gradually gotten worse.
When I was younger, pre-personal computer, I used to carry around a
pocket appointment calendar where I would write things down. I just
did an internet search for that item and there are still many of them
still available.
When I got a personal computer, I would keep track of everything on
computer files. At the end of each day, I'd print out the next day's
schedule on a sheet of paper, and I'd carry that around all day, in
the same way I used to carry the appointment calendar. During the
day, I would write down things I needed to remember on that same piece
of paper. At the end of the day, I'd copy the things I'd written down
into my computer files, and then I'd print out the next day's
schedule.
So today I'm really lucky because my hip pain is so bad that I can't
walk farther than the mailbox, and even that's a struggle. I'm
especially lucky since I have to sit in front of my computer all day,
which means I won't have to deal with the inconvenience of carrying
around an appointment book or even a printed piece of paper.
So today I haven't been diagnosed with dementia, but I forget things.
So I keep track of everything on my computer -- bills, pills, accounts,
names, phone numbers, phone calls, etc. There are special issues due
to the fact that I write articles about almost 200 countries
throughout history, so I have to have way to retrieve previous
conclusions about any given country or event, and to keep track of new
media sources. So I've set all that up, and I've written a lot of
personal software to make it as easy as possible for me.
So my point is that if you haven't already been using your computer to
keep track of everything in your life, you should start doing so. If
you're going to be forgetting things, then you need some system for
keeping track of things that you might forget.
That's one part of your planning. The other part of your planning is
to decide how and under what circumstances you're going to kill
yourself. This is particularly important if, as in my case, your pain
grows worse every week. You need to kill yourself because at some
point somebody who supposedly "cares" for you will decide to jab you
with a needle, turn you into a zombie, and put you into a room similar
to the ones where the Chinese put Uighurs for re-education and
indoctrination. It will be a fate far worse than death, but those who
supposedly "care" for you will make sure that you continue to suffer
as long as they can. Nothing will matter to them more than keeping
you alive so that you can continue to suffer for as long as possible,
since that will make the people who "care" for you happy, even as they
make vomitworthy statements about their hearts reaching out to you.
By the way, if the ones who "care" for you get some sort of income or
annuity on your behalf, then you're really doomed unless you kill
yourself. (See Britney Spears)
In your case, I gather that you're heavily embedded in the Catholic
Church, so you would end up being a zombie in a Catholic "home" of
some sort. Every now and then there's an investigation on the BBC of
some Catholic home where the residents are absolutely miserable, and
where their bodies are dumped into a mass grave when they die. So
unless you kill yourself first, that's probably your fate.
One thing that really pisses me off is that killing yourself is the
most important decision of your life, and there's no one you can ask
about it. It would be nice if you could ask you doctor, "I might have
to kill myself one day. What's the best way to do it?" but that kind
of question is forbidden. Though of course I violate the forbidden
all the time, and several years go, I mentioned to my doctor in an
offhand manner that some day in the future I might kill myself. Well
he freaked out and began to scream at me at the top of his lungs,
implying that I was crazy. I asked why he was getting so upset, and
he screamed "Because I care about you." OK, but as the screaming
continued, it appeared that there was another reason he was upset --
he would have to fill out paperwork and report me. I asked him how
long he was going to keep me locked up. He said that it isn't up to
him. I managed to calm him down by telling him that it would be years
in the future. I know that it's three days from another time when a
nutjob called the police who came to my apartment to "save" me while I
was in the middle of writing a book, and they wanted to lock me up for
three days, and they had an ambulance there and everything. So I made
it clear that they would have to take me violently, and when they said
they wouldn't be violent, I just said "let yourself out," and I went
back to my computer and back to work. The medical people stared at
me, took my blood pressure and asked me what pills I was taking. They
eventually just left. So as you make your plans to kill yourself,
that's the kind of thing you might have to put up with from nutjob
do-gooder idiots.
Here's one more anecdote, based on the fact that it's perfectly ok to
kill a baby with decades of life ahead of him, but it's not ok for an
old person to kill himself. I told a social worker that I might kill
myself some day. She got all agitated, and said that I had no right
to do that. That really made me laugh. I said, "Well, you're a woman
living in Massachusetts, so I assume that you're a feminist, and I
assume you go around all the time screaming 'It's my body, and nobody
has the right to tell me what to do with it.' Well, I'm 7x years old,
and it's my body, and nobody has the right to tell me what to do with
it." I really enjoyed telling her that. It stopped her in her
tracks.
So anyway, you have to make a plan. You have a choice whether to let
your morbid Catholic friends decide what meat locker they're going to
store you in, or whether you'll take control of your own (end of)
life. Unfortunately, you're pretty much on your own making that kind
of decision. If you have a gun or a tall building available, then
those are possible choices.
Otherwise you may have to buy some poison or something like that to
kill yourself. There are two problems here. One is that the jackass
authorities and do-gooders make if their business to keep you from
buying anything like that. And the second problem is that the Chinese
are only too happy to sell Nembutol or a similar substance to you
through mail order, but they charge a lot of money and just send you a
bag of sugar.
The best source of information of this type that I'm aware of is the
Peaceful Pill Handbook. Just do an internet search for those words.
I started subscribing to their monthly service several years ago for
$85 for two years. You can also buy the printed edition of their book
for $40, or you can find used copies online for less. But try to get
as up to date a copy as possible. Before you can subscribe, they'll
ask you to provide proof that you're over age 50.
One wild card event is the timing of the attack by the Gongshi Blood
Company. Whether they plan to colonize America or not, they're going
to have to attack America because America will defend Taiwan and
Japan. That could come at any time, though a lot of people believe
they'll wait until after the February Olympics in Beijing.
In my case, living on the edge of MIT, I'm lucky that I'll probably be
killed by the first missile attack. But if you live far away from any
likely target, then an attack by the Blood Company will keep you alive
but make your life worse. That's another reason why you have to be
prepared to kill yourself.
Plan, plan, plan ahead.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021
** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Taliban encircling Afghan capital Kabul, prepping final assault through east
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/08/taliban-encircling-afghan-capital-kabul-prepping-final-assault-through-east.php
![[Image: 1_rss.png]](https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Ta/TalibanKnockingontheDoor/geo/1_rss.png)
- Taliban knocking on the door, 14-Aug-2021 (Long War Journal)
The Taliban’s seemingly unstoppable offensive, which has seen the
group take control of more than half of Afghanistan’s provinces in
only nine days, is circling around the country’s capital and largest
city in Kabul. Today the Taliban took control of the provinces of
Paktika, Paktia, Laghman, Maimana and Kunar as well as Mazar-i-Sharif,
Afghanistan’s second largest city, and is consolidating its control of
the east in preparation for its culminating assault on Kabul. ...
The Afghan military is in complete disarray, and has been defeated in
detail across the country. ...
The Taliban’s strategy has given the Afghan government nowhere to run.
After consolidating its control of more than 170 of Afghanistan’s
contested districts, the Taliban swiftly moved to take the strategic
north and deny the country’s power brokers their base of support.
Concurrently, the Taliban seized the west and south, both which are
firmly under Taliban control. With these three key regions secured,
the Taliban has worked its way up from the south to quickly gobble up
the eastern provinces, with the final objective being the assault of
Kabul. -- Long War Journal
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-14-2021
I believe that not only the East Asian cultures alien to the West, but so are Middle Eastern cultures. Always something to keep in mind when formulating foreign policy.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-14-2021
China and grey zone tactics.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-14-2021
Russia and gray zone
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-14-2021
** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Population Density delusion
Apparently I've been deluded on the subject of population density.
For years, China has had a one-child policy to prevent overpopulation.
And I've always been under the delusion that this was because China
was the most densely populated country in the world, at least among
the big countries.
And I was aware that China's population is four times as high as
America's population, in a smaller area.
But it turns out that India has a much higher population density than
China: 424/sqkm for India vs 149/sqkm for China.
In fact, there are 82 countries, large and small, with higher
population densities than China, as can be seen from the following web
page:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density
Pakistan, for example, has 255/sqkm. The UK is at 281/sqkm. Vietnam
is at 296/sqkm. Japan is at 334/sqkm. South Korea is at 512/sqkm.
So OK, I've been deluded all these years. But now I wonder, what the
hell is the big deal with China? None of these other countries had a
"one child" policy. Why did China?
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-15-2021
** 15-Aug-2021 World View: Watching the fall of Kabul
I've been watching the fall of Kabul on al-Jazaeera and the BBC.
The BBC is calling it the worst foreign policy disaster in decades --
since the Egyptians defeated the British in 1956 over control of the
Suez Canal. Many people say they're in shock over this happening.
Britain has a long history in Afghanistan, and people interviewed by
the BBC recently have been talking about abandonment and betrayal.
I'm listening to one British official saying, "I hang my head in
shame" over what is happening."
The Taliban are saying that they're holding back from a full invasion
of Kabul to give the Afghan government a chance to resign, and give
the new Taliban government legitimacy. This also gives several
thousand people in the American embassy a chance to flee to the
airport, so that there won't be people hanging off of helicopters as
the were in the Fall of Saigon in 1975.
An interesting aspect of the collapse of the Afghan forces is that in
one city after another the existing government has simply resigned,
and turned the government over to the Taliban in a friendly manner.
There are two major side effects in each case. First, guns, tanks and
drones and other weapons that the Americans left behind for the Afghan
forces to defend themselves are now in the hands of the
Taliban. Second, hundreds of Taliban fighters who had been in jail are
now out and free to fight again.
As I've been saying for years, southern Afghanistan is governed by
ethnic Pashtuns. The Afghan officials are Pashtuns. The Taliban are
radicalized Pashtuns. So the Taliban have been entering each city and
there has often been a brotherly transfer of power.
The major exception so far has been the city of Mazar-i-Sharif in
northern Afghanistan, near the border with Uzbekistan. Many people
have been fleeing across the border to escape the advance of the
Taliban. Mazar-i-Sharif was the site of some of the bloodiest
massacres in 1997 between the Northern Alliance (Tajiks, Hazaras and
Uzbeks) and the Taliban (Pashtuns), following the Afghan civil war.
When the Taliban are in power again, it's absolutely certain that
there will be a new massacre by the Taliban in Mazar-i-Sharif.
https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-taliban-f600d6faf28e9c2ccb454ad176987b19
No matter how you look at it, the Pashtuns are a minority ethnic group
in Afghanistan, and they will not have the allegiance of anything like
the entire country. Many groups will now be seeking bloody revenge
for the atrocities committed during the 1990s.
Note:
Afghanistan's 2004 constitution recognizes 14 ethnic groups: Pashtun,
Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Baloch, Turkmen, Nuristani, Pamiri, Arab, Gujar,
Brahui, Qizilbash, Aimaq, and Pashai
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/afghanistan/#people-and-society
According to 2010 data from the US Department of State, the largest
ethnic group in Afghanistan is the Pashtun (including Kuchis),
comprising 42% of Afghans. The Tajiks are the second largest ethnic
group, at 27% of the population, followed by the Hazaras (9%), Uzbeks
(9%), Aimaq (4%), Turkmen (3%), Baluch (2%) and other groups that make
up 4%.
https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghan-ethnic-groups-brief-investigation
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-15-2021
(08-14-2021, 08:52 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 14-Aug-2021 World View: Population Density delusion
Apparently I've been deluded on the subject of population density.
For years, China has had a one-child policy to prevent overpopulation.
And I've always been under the delusion that this was because China
was the most densely populated country in the world, at least among
the big countries.
And I was aware that China's population is four times as high as
America's population, in a smaller area.
But it turns out that India has a much higher population density than
China: 424/sqkm for India vs 149/sqkm for China.
In fact, there are 82 countries, large and small, with higher
population densities than China, as can be seen from the following web
page:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density
Pakistan, for example, has 255/sqkm. The UK is at 281/sqkm. Vietnam
is at 296/sqkm. Japan is at 334/sqkm. South Korea is at 512/sqkm.
So OK, I've been deluded all these years. But now I wonder, what the
hell is the big deal with China? None of these other countries had a
"one child" policy. Why did China?
Wstern tourists in China rarely travel to the large, thinly-populated parts of the PRC that have few people -- and little to attract foreigners. Tibet is quirky to the extent that it remains culturally Tibetan, but even there the populated area is mostly around Lhasa, a tiny area of Tibet that can support a fairly-dense population. The Tibetan Plateau, the Tarim Basin, Inner Mongolia, and western Manchuria are either high mountains or very arid cold deserts or near-deserts.
China extends from the tropical South (Hainan, somewhat comparable to South Florida) to the subarctic region bordering on southeastern Siberia in Manchuria (basically middle-Quebec north of Quebec city with colder, drier winters. You will notice that aside from the St. Lawrence Valley in Quebec Province, zones of dense population in the US and Canada fade into near-oblivion north of about the middle of New Hampshire (Mr. X, you should be familiar with this, Toronto, roughly Saginaw and Muskegon in Michigan, Green Bay, and the Twin Cities. Go farther than this, and you will see where the corn belt has given way to the wheat belt, and in turn the potato belt. North of that, where rainfall is adequate, is forest. I see that in Michigan. West of about Lincoln, Nebraska and either Fort Worth or San Antonio, farming gives way to ranching and population densities drop off dramatically.
The vast majority of the population of the People's Republic of China lives from about Beijing southward and only as far west as the eastern part of the Tibetan plateau. Much territory of the PRC is essentially a cold version of the Australian Outback, and, yes, Australia is one of the most thinly-populated large countries in the world (Argentina, Canada, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, and a bunch of countries almost exclusively in the Sahara excepted). Much of the PRC is too cold or too dry for any intense agriculture except in comparative oases. Outside of those high mountains and cold deserts or near-deserts, China is densely populated much like western Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, or the urban centers of the northeastern quadrant of the USA.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-15-2021
** 15-Aug-2021 World View: Ashraf Ghani flees for his life
Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani has fled Kabul, for some other
country, possibly Tajikistan. The Taliban have now entered Kabul, and
are demanding total control of the government with no transitional
stage. Ghani's Minister of Education was interviewed on the BBC and
said that she can hardly believe he fled, that she had trusted Ghani,
and now will never trust any politician again.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-15-2021
** 15-Aug-2021 World View: One Child Policy
(08-15-2021, 10:37 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The vast majority of the population of the People's Republic of
> China lives from about Beijing southward and only as far west as
> the eastern part of the Tibetan plateau. Much territory of the PRC
> is essentially a cold version of the Australian Outback, and, yes,
> Australia is one of the most thinly-populated large countries in
> the world (Argentina, Canada, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, and a bunch
> of countries almost exclusively in the Sahara excepted). Much of
> the PRC is too cold or too dry for any intense agriculture except
> in comparative oases. Outside of those high mountains and cold
> deserts or near-deserts, China is densely populated much like
> western Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, or the urban centers of
> the northeastern quadrant of the USA.
This explains why China's population density is roughly average, but
it doesn't explain why the Gongshi Blood Company has had a one-child
policy, when other roughly average countries do not, and why the Blood
Company wants to colonize America.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-15-2021
** 15-Aug-2021 World View: Young Zealots
Analysts have been making one idiotic statement after another. "Women
and girls will be able to go to school or work, as long as they wear
the hijab." "The Taliban will be moderate, because they need
international support." Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that
the Afghan operation has been a total success. This is just like DHS
secretary saying that the border is closed. Starting from Biden on
down, this is the worst American government in my lifetime, with one
disastrous policy after another.
There's only one analyst today that said something sensible: "The
Taliban leaders are being moderate, but after they're in power,
because they don't want to repeat the 1990s atrocities. But once
they're in power, it's the young zealots who will be committing
atrocities."
That's the Generational Dynamics position, and that's exactly right.
Other analyst observations of interest:
"The US army has been looking at a map of provinces, while the
Taliban have been looking at a map of tribes."
"The people of Afghanistan on social media are furious that Ashraf
Ghani fled the country, and he will pay the consequences."
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-15-2021
(08-15-2021, 11:05 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 15-Aug-2021 World View: One Child Policy
(08-15-2021, 10:37 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The vast majority of the population of the People's Republic of
> China lives from about Beijing southward and only as far west as
> the eastern part of the Tibetan plateau. Much territory of the PRC
> is essentially a cold version of the Australian Outback, and, yes,
> Australia is one of the most thinly-populated large countries in
> the world (Argentina, Canada, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, and a bunch
> of countries almost exclusively in the Sahara excepted). Much of
> the PRC is too cold or too dry for any intense agriculture except
> in comparative oases. Outside of those high mountains and cold
> deserts or near-deserts, China is densely populated much like
> western Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, or the urban centers of
> the northeastern quadrant of the USA.
This explains why China's population density is roughly average, but
it doesn't explain why the Gongshi Blood Company has had a one-child
policy, when other roughly average countries do not, and why the Blood
Company wants to colonize America.
Ethnic Chinese people have been emigrating from China or from overseas Chinese communities in large numbers. I'm not going to say that that is colonization. Should such people supplant America's meth fiends and especially the fools who die because of their refusal to take reasonable measures against COVID-19, then such is likely a net gain. My experiences with Chinese-Americans have largely been positive, so I am not scared. Colonization by force (that is, World War III) is a different matter. I question whether top Chinese leadership is crazy enough to risk nuclear war.
The one-child poliy was made to prevent overpopulation and thus huge famines. That is an act of peace toward Humanity.
China will have its trading activities everywhere not overtly hostile to China... which probably now includes Afghanistan.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-15-2021
(08-15-2021, 02:21 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 15-Aug-2021 World View: Young Zealots
Analysts have been making one idiotic statement after another. "Women
and girls will be able to go to school or work, as long as they wear
the hijab." "The Taliban will be moderate, because they need
international support." Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that
the Afghan operation has been a total success. This is just like DHS
secretary saying that the border is closed. Starting from Biden on
down, this is the worst American government in my lifetime, with one
disastrous policy after another.
There's only one analyst today that said something sensible: "The
Taliban leaders are being moderate, but after they're in power,
because they don't want to repeat the 1990s atrocities. But once
they're in power, it's the young zealots who will be committing
atrocities."
That's the Generational Dynamics position, and that's exactly right.
Other analyst observations of interest:
"The US army has been looking at a map of provinces, while the
Taliban have been looking at a map of tribes."
"The people of Afghanistan on social media are furious that Ashraf
Ghani fled the country, and he will pay the consequences."
I predict that there will be guerilla activity against the Taliban regime which has never shown even a pretense of democratic norms during its existence.
Ashraf Ghani did the reasonable thing in view of what happened to the Soviet puppet Mohammad Najibullah, who met this end:
Quote:Najibullah was at the UN compound when the Taliban soldiers came for him on the evening of 26 September 1996.[7] The Taliban abducted him from UN custody and tortured him to death, and then dragged his dead (and, according to Robert Parry, castrated[77]) body behind a truck through the streets of Kabul. His brother, Shahpur Ahmadzai, was given the same treatment.[78] Najibullah and Shahpur's bodies were hanged from a traffic light pole outside the Arg presidential palace the next day in order to show the public that a new era had begun. The Taliban prevented Islamic funeral prayers for Najibullah and Shahpur in Kabul, but the bodies were later handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross who in turn sent their bodies to Gardez in Paktia Province, where both of them were buried after the Islamic funeral prayers for them by their fellow Ahmadzai tribesmen.[78][/url]
There is simple death, and death Taliban-style.
Scary, huh? [url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Najibullah#cite_note-brother&brotherdead-78]
I'll refrain from any discussion of the competence of American negotiation in the Doha Accord aside from giving the year (2020).
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-17-2021
** 16-Aug-2021 World View: Fighting to the last bullet
Burner Prime" Wrote:> One thing most of you don't realize is that in the same way
> 300,000 heavily armed and trained Afghan forces melted away, so
> too will US forces melt away in the coming World War.
This is complete nonsense. This is a generational Crisis era in
America. Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era. That's why
the Afghan forces melted away.
Even when we fought a war during an Awakening era, the Vietnam war, we
lost that war, and it was a debacle, but we still put up a good fight
for a while, because the American armed forces could impose discipline
even during an Awakening era. Of course, there were soldiers hiding
out in Canada or holding antiwar protests, but the American forces
still did an honorable job. We didn't just collapse like the Afghans.
The Afghan army collapsed for the reasons I've been saying for years.
Most of the Afghan army are Pashtuns, and the Taliban are radicalized
Pashtuns. Many people in each army are brothers or cousins of people
in the other army. So the Taliban could sweep through the country
through tribal and family relationships.
In case of a war with China today, in a generational Crisis era, there
is no chance at all that the American armed forces will fold. They'll
fight to the last bullet.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-17-2021
** 16-Aug-2021 World View: Regeneracy event
Guest Wrote:> John, given the universal shock/outrage over Afghanistan, could
> this be the regeneracy event? Or is an attack on the homeland
> absolutely necessary?
No, absolutely not. Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event
occurs, you won't have to ask.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-17-2021
** 17-Aug-2021 World View: Don't be evil
aeden Wrote:> Arguing for Netscape as Google abandoned do no harm is like
> watching the current Demshevik red diapers argue margin. The only
> hole bigger than one in their head is the Border dispersion
> disease vectors and the Senates alleged sanity. May as well bleed
> the pateints as they did until the 1871 comment its a bad idea.
> Mind numbing and blatantly deluded option chains is all they
> actually appear to covet.
Actually, the motto that Google abandoned in 2016 was "Don't be evil."
It was good timing, since Google is now a leader in the evil Democrat
Stalinist Faschist regime.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-17-2021
** 17-Aug-2021 World View: The mood in South Korea and Taiwan
Guest Wrote:> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml
> It's from the official mouth piece of the CCP but the above linked
> article shows how the Afghan situation is being interpreted by
> players on the global stage. Also some commentators have noted
> (with naive shock) the "When not If" tone the article takes
> regarding military action to reintegrate Taiwan.
Guest Wrote:> Today, my manager (I work in Seoul) told me that while watching
> news about the fall of Kabul, she felt that this is what America
> would do to South Korea. That is the mood here now. I can imagine
> the Taiwanese are even more afraid. A few of my co-workers talked
> about this too. They asked me what I thought the Americans would
> do under Biden. I told them I don't know.
> That's the mood here now.
> I wonder if this is what Biden was paid by the Chinese to do? Or
> is this also 4D chess...
It's hard to overestimate the size of the catastrophe unfolding in
Afghanistan, with fallout that will last for years. The catastrophe
was capped off by that ridiculous speech on Monday by the doddering
Bernie, who can barely read a teleprompter.
The stupidity and incompetence of the Biden administration is
enormous. He threw open the southern border with no plan and
disastrous consequences. He closed the Keystone pipeline with no plan
and disastrous consequences. He advocated defunding the police in
multiple cities, with no plan and disastrous consequences. He shut
down Bagram airbase overnight, with no plan and disastrous
consequences. He pulled troops out of Kabul with no plan and
disastrous consequences, requiring him to send back 1000 troops, then
1000 more, then 1000 more, then 1000 more. When he announced 9/11 as
the final withdrawal date, I said he was dumber than a bag of hammers,
and three weeks from now we'll see the consequences -- a likely
resurgence of al-Qaeda celebrating the defeat of the United States
after 20 years inside the American embassy.
On the other hand, there is some leverage to be had. Unlike 20 years
ago, Kabul is a large urban city, with thousands of workers doing
everything from driving buses to teaching to fixing elevators in
government buildings to keeping the electric grid running, and the
Taliban will need international aid to pay for those services. Also,
Afghanistan has water problems and other environment problems,
including those caused by climate change, and they will need
international help with those. China, Russia and Iran will be
offering to provide some of that aid, in return for exploiting
Afghanistan's mineral resources.
So what does this mean for American defense of South Korea and Taiwan?
It would seem that this would indicate that America would not defend
its allies. But actually, it could have the opposite effect. The
Biden administration will not want to have a second black eye, so they
may actually be more likely than previously to provide a defense.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-17-2021
I would imagine that people in Taiwan, South Korea, and elsewhere are beginning to look upon the USA as a dubious ally. I can't say what Biden will do next.
My own point of view is...don't be ambiguous...either act as a firm ally, or withdraw our military. Be decisive, one way or the other.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-17-2021
Neither South Korea not Taiwan is under corrupt, incompetent rulers.