Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - galaxy - 02-27-2022 (08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event This post has been much on my mind lately. Sure looks like one, at least for the European 4T countries. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 02-27-2022 (02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - galaxy - 02-27-2022 (02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event Not the same turning, but I'm beginning to feel like Ukraine is acquiring the same symbolism as West Berlin had. Everyone's posting "слава україні" all over the internet now...it's not much of a stretch to imagine that, if there had been internet in 1963, those posts would have been "ich bin ein berliner." The speed and universality of the spreading of this news is something to behold. Everyone is talking about it. People I know who are completely apolitical and barely follow news know all the details. Regardless of how this ends, there is something big happening in the 4T West. This is not going to fizzle out and is not going to be forgotten. It's also interesting to watch the behaviors of countries around this. For the West, even though they're technically not involved, it's obviously a 4T war, while for Ukraine it's very clearly a 1T war* (and it's only becoming more clear that the US History analogy is the War of 1812). While the West continues to panic, Ukraine continues to respond with a truly incredible level of calm and unity. It really does look like regeneracy has arrived in Europe. Suddenly all these countries are relearning how to do quick and decisive action. They are quickly losing the 3T apathy that they've held onto deep into this turning. There seems to be almost a feeling of these countries "rediscovering" that such a thing is possible by "following Ukraine's example." The sense of general powerlessness against crises that has pervaded Western populations and governments since the 4T began may be beginning to weaken, and not a moment too soon. *Ukraine's 1T very clearly began following the revolution in 2014. Russia's 1T may have also begun in 2014, or it may have been a few years earlier, but certainly no earlier than 2008 - in any case, 2014 is when the 1T mood became firmly set in place in the country, anything preceding was some level of 4/1 hybrid. And as another saecular note which some may find useful, the actual fighters are mostly Adaptives (all of those under age 35-40 or so), and Zelensky is a Civic (born 1978, an equivalent birth year in the USA's cycle would be around 1992 or 1910, roughly). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-27-2022 Of course, incompetence by the Russian armed forces, at least in the ground is laughable. Soldiers not being told that their exercises near the border are an invasion? Motorized units and tanks running out of fuel in enemy territory? Unless this is some ruse, such shows grave incompetence of the Russian equivalent of the Commander-in-Chief. This would all get failing grades at West Point. Even at the platoon level one knows that logistics can easily decide a battle. A unit that runs out of food,fuel, or munitions will either walk into POW pens or be mowed down. Putin called for this invasion on the spur of the moment. Ukraine is likely ahead of most of the West. It has few supporters of the former kleptocratic dictator Yanukovich to mess things up.That's how things are at least toward the end of a Crisis Era in a country handling the Crisis well.Beware such societies as enemies. Such a potential rift as a two-Party system may do more to promote wise choices by a Churchill or FDR. If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - galaxy - 02-28-2022 (02-27-2022, 11:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role. Not necessarily status quo ante bellum, just similar. The key elements of a 1T war are that there is not much change (though there is always some), all parties involved can plausibly claim victory or at least "lack of defeat" (and their populations are able to accept such a claim without doing too much mental gymnastics), and all parties involved are more 1T-ish after it than they were before it. If I had to guess, a "Ukrainian victory" (as perceived by the West) would involve losing Donetsk and Luhansk (as well as Crimea, which was already lost), while remaining intact otherwise (and becoming much more closely connected to the West). Both sides will claim victory, with Ukraine probably declaring itself to be the victorious David to Russia's Goliath and probably dismissing the lost territory with a "whatever, they didn't even want to be here anyway," and Russia probably proclaiming the "liberation" of those regions while trying to sweep the incredibly incompetent invasion under the rug, probably with some kind of word salad like "we didn't actually want to invade all of Ukraine, we just wanted to look like we were going to, it was posturing that was necessary to liberate these regions" or something like that. And Ukraine is already more 1T-ish now than it was a week ago, and was more 1T-ish then than it was a month before that. So that part is already done. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 02-28-2022 (02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event Ukraine is the Checkoslovakia of this 4T. The turnings are nearly universal now. But certainly this is 4T for the America/British saeculum, and Europe is almost the same or maybe a year or two behind the USA. This can only be a 4T event for Ukraine, if the turnings have any meaning. This is a fight for survival. Ukraine is on Europe's cycle now, not Russia's. But Russia doesn't really have turnings, because it is an authoritarian state that never changes or grows. The saeculum only occurs in countries that progress through the planetary dynamic. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-28-2022 (02-28-2022, 12:26 AM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 11:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: If this is a 1T war it eill end most likely as status quo ante bellum for boundaries.As for Putin he might consider that bungled wars of a leader's choosing are not good for long-term survival in that role. Russia already had Crimea, and the areas around Donetsk and Luhansk will retain their sketchy 'independence before pleading to join Russia through some sketchy process. Maybe some villages will be exchanged in border adjustments. This may be much more important: the Putin dictatorship may have become brittle. The 4T may not yet be over in Russia. Putin was unable to stop anti-war protests that the regime deems illegal. Russia puts on an air of wealth, yet the people are mostly poor. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - galaxy - 02-28-2022 (02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote:(08-17-2021, 05:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Believe me, when an ACTUAL regeneracy event We've been over this...any society with a concept of "history" and "generation" will have turnings. That's almost every society in the modern world except for literal hunter-gatherers. Russia and Ukraine are both 1T, with their 4Ts beginning in the late 1980s or early 1990s and lasting until 2014. Here's a map: The whole 1T region entered a 4T around the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union. They all exited the 4T sometime between roughly 2006 and 2014 (general trend: further west = entered 1T earlier). *Algeria entered a 3T in 2011 while most of the Arab countries entered a 4T. I'm not sure exactly how it ended up almost exactly one full turning behind all of its neighbors as well as its former colonizer, but it's definitely there. *Ireland is having what must be the mildest 4T in all of history. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 03-01-2022 (02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote: This post has been much on my mind lately. That is a cool map. You do well with graphics and concepts. As usual I don't quite agree with them, although I don't claim to be right. We've been over this, but remember if you can my point, that a saeculum is a movement. All movement is from one place to another, and all movement travels in cycles. No vehicle can move unless it be perched upon a circular accessory. So, saecula exist in societies that are moving. The nation in question may go into reverse for a while, as the USA has for 40 years. But eventually they decide whether to keep moving or stop moving. When they stop, the hurricane has dissipated and lost steam and it loses its eye and becomes a mere tropical depression. That's what a saeculum is. The word saeculum comes from Rome, because the 100-year cycle was detected and described by observers, and was celebrated in a great festival as a 1T began with the Pax Romana in the time of Caesar Augustus. There was some movement in society, and despite many slaves there, many common people participated in the affairs of state and society. Still, it was slow movement and slow progress by modern standards. It was like a level 1 hurricane. The empire replaced the republic in that very 1T, and the movement got more tepid and finally the societ was exhausted and the movement and the saeculum stopped. In the Dark and Middle Ages, there was virtually no saeculum. S&H could not define one. Mike has tried, but the result is something in which turnings are rather vague and arbitrary. Dark and Middle Age society had no saeculum because it did not move anywhere. It did not progress. Children did what their fathers did. There were no generation gaps, and no difference between generations. So, no generation cycle. And this is a key point: hurricanes need to soak up a lot of water, and it needs to be warm. The saeculum got stronger in The West because more people were involved. As the Enlightenment and the Revolution brought down the barriers to most people participating, the saeculum speeded up from 100+ in the early Renaissance to 80-84 years. The first one to speed up was the one that ended with the Revolution; it lasted about 90. The second one ended in the Civil War; it may have been somewhat truncated as the North speeded up while the South stalled, and had to be forcefully joined to the northern saeculum. So, being a slave medieval society, it may not have even had a saeculum of its own. The following two saeculum could be called level 4, very well-defined, with more and more people involved. The speed was a little faster than average too. Until neoliberalism and Reagan came in, that is. The saeculum has slowed in our recent third turning, which was 24 years long, and although some 4Ts are shorter and concentrated, ours will drag on as long as a typical turning of any kind. Or, it may never end. Russia does not progress. It is stuck in authoritarian rule, and may never escape. Such societies are like ancient or medieval empires. The best they can hope for is a level one hurricane lasting 100 years or more. The best you can say about Russia is that it has had moments when a hurricane seemed to be forming, and then it falls apart again. The 1860s was some kind of awakening under tsar Alexander II. It was crushed in 1881 under Alexander III. It did not dissolve into cultural conflict between factions like a typical western 3T. It merely was repressed. Then came the great war and the Revolution. A 4T began in about 1902 that lasted for well over 40 years, without a single break. Following this was more stagnation. Some kind of awakening gradually took hold, climaxing in the 1990s. But since Putin took over, the seaculum has stalled again. It is not in any turning that I can discern, certainly not a 3T. It has just stalled ever since then, with no turning going on at all. I guess that's a bit better than saying it has no saeculum at all over these years since the 1860s, but certainly before then it never had any turning at all. And it just can't seem to get one going that continues consistently. It is not a modern nation. It is a creepy totalitarian stick in the mud and a menace to everyone else. No nation can be in a saeculum if the people are not allowed to participate in it, and in which no change occurs. Such nations, as in the Dark and Middle Ages in The West, do not have generations, because children just do what their fathers did and there's no upward mobility. In most cases, there are only two generations even alive in these societies, due to shorter life spans--- which ironically lengthens the turnings. That is the danger that we face in the USA too. Our neoliberal 3T has not entirely ended, and we have not faced up to our Crisis. We have an almost 80-year old president, the only viable leader available to us, who is trying feebly to push and push and get the wheels moving again. But so far he can't seem to get it beyond some potholes in the road, especially a pothole named Joe Manchin. But the window for possible action on the climate emergency is closing. We have this decade only left to stave off tipping points to hothouse earth, and nothing to look forward to but continued disaster and decline after then if we don't act now. All the result of the neoliberal bullshit that Americans sheepishly followed into the ditch during the late 2T and 3T. The vehicle of the saeculum, the movement of the hurricane, is still stalled in this ditch. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 03-02-2022 (03-01-2022, 11:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We have arrived at a point similar to when FDR declared the USA the arsenal of democracy. You have a suggestion of why the former Confederacy took so long to escape the impediment of its past. The people in best position in which to repudiate that past were the Freedmen who had no ties to the past. They were forming commercial and educational institutions and even exercising political power -- except that such was crushed. Fifty years or so after the Civil War the complete destruction of such activity appeared in the formation of the Second Klan (which had many of the characteristics of Italian fascists and German Nazis before those demonic causes came into existence). This is the time in which the bulk of the Confederate statues went up, symbolizing the complete and utter defeat of the hopes of Southern blacks. Southern whites could define the New Deal "for Whites only" in an Apartheid-like system about a decade before Apartheid arose in South Africa. That's one way in which to 'stunt growth'. World War II would challenge that and establish the seeds of destruction of that order. America was fighting for its life against a racist slave system. Black soldiers returned after having proved themselves competent fighters. Northerners who usually avoided the South as boring and depressing 'discovered' Florida, but had to go by car on surface roads like US-1, US-17, US-19, US-23, US-27, US-31 (only to Montgomery), and US-41 through "Kukluxistan". To be sure, many of those who went by road were relatively old and were in too much of a rush to confront it, but they did tell their kids. Knowing that a disproportionate number of the white people who would eventually challenge the practices of "Kukluxistan" were Jewish, I can just imagine some of the travelers' tales. Aside from the less-consequential stories of tourist traps in Florida and giving a warning to keep the family dog out of reach of alligators who exploit the aggression of the top predator of the northeastern quadrant of the United States (In a violent confrontation with one of these, you lose, so it is above us in the food chain; for a large predator that potentially has Man on the menu, all that keeps us safe from these fellows is good behavior. Ours and theirs. Who tamed whom?) to turn dogs into dinner came stories of separate waiting areas, "NO COLORED PERSONS SERVED HERE", and substandard living conditions (poor for most whites and horrible for blacks), and the heavy use of a certain abominable word in contrast to the then-neutral word in Yiddish (it is the literal translation of the German word for "black", as Yiddish is really a German dialect)... their kids were more judgmental. That fueled the Civil Rights struggle. Only after its success could the American South join the gentlemen's club, so to speak. The following two saeculum could be called level 4, very well-defined, with more and more people involved. The speed was a little faster than average too. Until neoliberalism and Reagan came in, that is. The saeculum has slowed in our recent third turning, which was 24 years long, and although some 4Ts are shorter and concentrated, ours will drag on as long as a typical turning of any kind. Or, it may never end. Quote:Russia does not progress. It is stuck in authoritarian rule, and may never escape. Such societies are like ancient or medieval empires. The best they can hope for is a level one hurricane lasting 100 years or more. The best you can say about Russia is that it has had moments when a hurricane seemed to be forming, and then it falls apart again. The 1860s was some kind of awakening under tsar Alexander II. It was crushed in 1881 under Alexander III. It did not dissolve into cultural conflict between factions like a typical western 3T. It merely was repressed. Then came the great war and the Revolution. A 4T began in about 1902 that lasted for well over 40 years, without a single break. Following this was more stagnation. Some kind of awakening gradually took hold, climaxing in the 1990s. But since Putin took over, the seaculum has stalled again. It is not in any turning that I can discern, certainly not a 3T. It has just stalled ever since then, with no turning going on at all. I guess that's a bit better than saying it has no saeculum at all over these years since the 1860s, but certainly before then it never had any turning at all. And it just can't seem to get one going that continues consistently. It is not a modern nation. It is a creepy totalitarian stick in the mud and a menace to everyone else. No nation can be in a saeculum if the people are not allowed to participate in it, and in which no change occurs. I wouldn't be so sure. I have suggested that smart and curious American youth learn Russian and imbibe deeply into Russian intellectual life, and I do not take that statement back. Surely you saw the 2014 Winter Olympics, probably most memorable for the pageantry of the opening ceremony. We Americans are reminded that Serge Rachmaninov and Igor Stravinsky aren't "ours". Putin is about the same age as Nicolae Ceausescu was at the end of twenty years of tyranny. In democracies, very old leaders like Churchill in the 1950's and Biden today know that there is much that they can't get away with. Putin has been surrounded by yes-men at a time in which his judgment and rational processes fail him. The great figures of Russia in science, art, music, and literature have shown that Russia can do much right. Politics and economics? Not so much. The political and economic heritage of Russia can change rapidly and even suddenly. So it was in the American South. Quote: That is the danger that we face in the USA too. Our neoliberal 3T has not entirely ended, and we have not faced up to our Crisis. We have an almost 80-year old president, the only viable leader available to us, who is trying feebly to push and push and get the wheels moving again. But so far he can't seem to get it beyond some potholes in the road, especially a pothole named Joe Manchin. But the window for possible action on the climate emergency is closing. We have this decade only left to stave off tipping points to hothouse earth, and nothing to look forward to but continued disaster and decline after then if we don't act now. All the result of the neoliberal bullshit that Americans sheepishly followed into the ditch during the late 2T and 3T. The vehicle of the saeculum, the movement of the hurricane, is still stalled in this ditch. "Our" economic elites have done everything possible to commit us to a perpetual 3T as a time of increasing depravity in commerce, culture, and politics. It can be lucrative, but it is still rot. Those elites are out of touch with realities that can and will hit them hard because those elites can shield themselves from the effects. They will not be the peasant farmers of Bangladesh who will lose their livelihood feeding textile workers who might be their cousins. They will not be the ones who must watch their backs as middle-class certainties give way to the perils of the ghetto. (That's not racial; some white people are becoming quite "ghetto" in behavior even if they have not abandoned "whiteness". I'll avoid meth and opioid addicts irrespective of ethnicity). They will have overseas bank accounts safe from expropriative taxation. OK, Biden stumbled on some words in his State of the Union Address last night (March 1)...but with a few adjustments we get the idea, plain and clear. It is a call for a new way of life well rooted in the best that America has been. Much of our problem is crony capitalism, and if you want to know how bad crony capitalism is when it permeates everything, just look at Russia. Just look at the cost of insulin for Type-I diabetics. Much of a 4T is the squeezing out of bad habits, many of those arising from the recent 3T. Neoliberal economics is one of the bad habits that must die. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-09-2022 *** 10-Mar-22 World View -- Asian politics confounded by Russia's debacle invasion of Ukraine This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's invasion of Ukraine far from resolution **** Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to succeed within a few days, is currently looking like a debacle. Russia's president Vladimar Putin ordered hundreds of thousands of troops into the battle, along with tanks, artillery, warplanes, and dozens of warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to Ukraine's south. Russia is conducting massive genocide and war crimes, bombing and flattening innocent women and children in one village after another causing enormous suffering, specifically targeting schools and hospitals, driving millions of refugees into neighboring countries -- for no discernible reason at all except the sociopathic genocidal mind of Putin. Russia has become an international pariah state, condemned by 141 countries in the United Nations General Assembly, with 23 abstentions (including China), and only five countries opposing the condemnation: North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, and Russia itself. Thanks to international sanctions, Russia's economy is becoming increasingly distressed. While Putin is being condemned as an international war criminal, Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being viewed as a "Churchillian hero," starting with his refusal to flee the country in the way that Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani had fled. The Ukrainian people have turned out to be extremely resilient, much more so than anyone expected, after Russia had simply rolled over Crimea in 2014. They've prevented Russian troops from taking control of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and other large cities that Russia has attacked, and so far Kiev has remained out of reach. The Ukrainians have killed hundreds of Russians, destroyed dozens of tanks, and shot down tens of Russian warplanes. This does not mean that Russia will be defeated. Far from it. Vladimir Putin has a history of reacting to losses by using increasingly horrific war crimes. In Syria, Russia sent missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sared gas to kill large groups of people. The barrel bombs, missiles and chemical weapons specifically targeted schools, markets and hospitals, in order to kill as many women and children as possible, Since chlorine gas is heavier than air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and gunfire. As Putin becomes increasingly desperate, he is expected to increasingly horrific violence, including the tactics used in Syria and in Chechnya. If he becomes desperate enough, it's even possible he'll resort to tactical nuclear weapons. However, even if he manages to kill Zelenskyy and subdue the country, the battle will be far from over. An occupation army of a couple of hundred thousand people is not nearly enough to fight an insurgency in a country of 44 million people. Furthermore, there will be millions of Ukrainian refugees in neighboring countries who will be prepared to do what they can to defeat the Russian occupancy. This would be extremely expensive for Russia to sustain, and it's not believed he could do so for long. **** **** Russia's invasion a shock to the Chinese Communists **** China and Russia have been historic enemies, with the Chinese and Russian people hating each other, but the two countries have been united by their common enemies, the United States and the West. Nonetheless, China has found it impossible to give a full-throated endorsement to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China is a close ally of Ukraine, and has invested heavily in Ukraine. I've previously described long-term delusional geopolitical strategy of the Chinese Communists to gain hegemony over the entire world. This analysis was based on a CCP newsletter forwarded to me by a web site reader. (See "16-Dec-20 World View -- China's delusional geopolitical strategy" ) Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of China making any concession whatsoever. According to the CCP newsletter: "The big question is how America will respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it. If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and Russia." This whole delusional fantasy strategy has been torn apart by Russia's Ukraine invasion. The Chinese Communists had assumed that the world would welcome Chinese hegemony, but it's clear that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also make China as much a pariah as Russia is. The whole strategy of using BRI to make the world love China has been shown to be ridiculous, even to the delusional Chinese Communists. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communists will abandon their plans of world domination. To the contrary, the Chinese Communists will be a desperate, and will adopt the most horrific tactics, including a nuclear weapons attack on the United States. China has been threatening to invade Taiwan for years, and is too well invested in that goal to abandon it. Furthermore, China has been preparting a nuclear attack on America for decades, and will launch it as a time of its choosing. **** **** South Korea's election of Yoon Suk-yeol moves the country to the right **** Yoon Suk-yeol, leader of the People's Power Party (NY Post) Former prosecutor and conservative Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party won South Korea's presidential election on Wednesday, defeating the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, which had formerly been led by the incumbent president Moon Jae-in. Yoon will take office on May 10. Yoon is expected to take a harsher line towards China and North Korea than did his predecessor Moon, and is expected to be more closely aligned with US policy than Moon. For example, Yoon has voiced a need to deploy another American Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) anti-missile system to deter North Korea. The 2016 installation of the first Thaad battery in South Korea triggered massive economic retaliation from China that lasted nearly two years. By the way, Yoon has developed a reputation for being a "non-woke" politician. His wife, Kim Keon-hee, has been attacked by feminist activists for criticizing sexual harassment "opportunists." **** **** The Regeneracy **** Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have undoubtedly been shocked at the unity of the international community to Russia's invasion of campaign. Putin certainly expected to take advantage of a split among the countries of Nato, but now the Nato countries seem completely unified. Even Germany will be sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, in a major reversal of policy. This is the generational theory "Regeneracy" that I've been talking about for years. I've been writing about it domestically, as the regeneracy of civic unity, where Americans put political differences aside and unite against the common enemy. Today we're seeing the same thing internationally, as countries around the world unite against Russia. The regeneracy has also united Western-linked countries in Asia. South Korea's election aligns it more closely with America. Japan has strongly condemned Russia's invasion, and has announced that it will end "peace talks" about the Kuril Islands dispute. The interesting political battle in the next few months will be over energy. So-called "green" policies in America and Europe have been an absolutely disaster, as they've made Europe much more dependent on Russia, and they've raised oil prices so that America and Europe are funding Russia's war in Ukraine. There is enormous pressure from both Republicans and Democrats on the Biden administration to abandon the disastrous "green" policies, and the abandonment of those policies will be a major sign of the regeneracy in domestic politics. In my opinion, the US will try to stay out of this European war, just as the US at first stayed out of the European wars in 1914 and 1939. The US was able to stay out of those wars for 2-3 years. In my opinion, the European war will trigger a full-scale world war within a few months or at most a couple of years, with the exact timing dependent on China's actions, especially in Taiwan. **** **** The future of Generational Dynamics **** I am 77 years old, soon to be 78, and I have absolutely no desire to even try to live through World War III. I'm miserable, depressed, in intermitten pain, alone, surviving on Social Security, and disgusted with the Cassandra Curse, which says that I'm treated abusively, even when (or especially when) I'm right. Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on Forrester's System Dynamics from MIT applied to generational flows, and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web sites, generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. In addition, I've written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Daoism. The major prediction over the last 20 years has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world war against China. That time is now approaching. The Russia-Ukraine war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction that will lead to a major European war, and within the next year or so to a world war and a global depression. Nuclear weapons will be used. I published four books, thinking that they would create some sort of legacy that would survive me. And they're really good books, in my opinion. I'm really proud of them. You would think by this time, they would have generated some interest somewhere, but they haven't. I've only sold a few dozen copies of each. I apologize for writing so few articles these last few months. I simply no longer have the energy to write as much as I used to, especially in view of the Cassandra Curse. However, I do try to contribute something to the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Nonetheless, Generational Dynamics may be reaching the end of the line. After I'm gone, very few people will even remember Generational Dynamics, and many of them will remember it only with scorn and derision as the invention of an old Boomer fossil. There will be nobody whose selary depends on keeping Generation Dynamics alive, so Generational Dynamics will die with me. That's why I'm extending an invitation to any individuals, think tanks, universities, or other organizations that would like to take on the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics. There's wealth of information on my books and on my web sites. Furthermore, I am available right now to provide guidance and even to give a professional or college course over zoom. So this is the right time. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, China, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, North Korea, Belarus, Eritrea, Syria, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kiev, South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol, People Power Party, Lee Jae-myung, Moon Jae-in, Democratic Party, Terminal High Altitude Air Defense, THAAD, The Regeneracy Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - freivolk - 04-01-2022 (02-28-2022, 04:08 PM)galaxy Wrote:No, sorry, you are wrong. Russia and Eastern Europe are not in a 1T, they are like the West still in th 4T. The Russian-Ukranian War is a 4T-war. Russia has just the problem, that it started the war with a 3T-army. All of Eastern Europe (including Russia and East Germany) having the same internal conflict between western liberalism and a nationalistic authoritism. The other side of the crisis is, that Russia tries to restore his status as a Superpower(02-28-2022, 02:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:42 PM)galaxy Wrote:(02-27-2022, 10:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-27-2022, 06:06 PM)galaxy Wrote: This post has been much on my mind lately. The war is part of this, but also allows Putin to liquidate the remains of western liberalism in Russia and the reestablishment of a totalitarian system. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2022 I vaguely recall this having been discussed before....if things go very badly, it is possible for events to force an off-Cycle 4T on a country. I suspect that, whatever turning the Cycle suggests, Ukraine is now 4T. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2022 John, I'm sorry that things are going poorly for you. I do appreciate your analysis of world events. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-01-2022 I've been paying much attention to the Michigan plot, the plot to kidnap the Governor and put her at extreme. if ill-defined, risk. From what I have seen of the excerpted testimony and news coverage, the plotters seem to be lamentable characters. I'll wait until verdicts are announced to say more. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2022 ** 02-Apr-2022 World View: Thanks (04-01-2022, 12:00 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > John, I'm sorry that things are going poorly for you. I do Thanks, Tim. I appreciate your remarks. I've been pleasantly surprised by the number of people who have written to me to wish me well, and to tell me how valuable my articles have been by providing a non-ideological explanation of what's actually going on in the world. By applying modern generational theory to current events, I've apparently filled a very important need for a few thousand people, much more than I previously realized. It makes me want to go on, as best as I can. Thanks again. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2022 *** 3-Apr-22 World View -- History and future of the Russia-Ukraine war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Status of Russia-Ukraine war **** Map of Russia-Ukraine war, status on April 2, 2022 (Al-Jazeera) The purpose of this article is to provide a historical analysis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in order to forecast what is most likely to come next. Russia has been conducting numerous war crimes, making indiscriminate attacks on civilians and residential neighborhoods, flattening villages and cities with illegal cluster bombs, illegal cassette bombs and illegal thermobaric bombs. Russia hasn't yet begun using illegal chemical weapons, as they used in Syria and Chechnya, but that's presumably coming. There are now some ten million displaced people in Ukraine who have lost their homes. Three million refugees have flooded into neighboring countries, including Poland, Hungary and Romania. Russia is supposedly withdrawing some forces from around Kiev into the Donbase in the east, near the border with Russia. Many analysts believe that they're being redeployed in preparation for a new assault on Kiev. **** **** Army culture and skill sets **** The most common opinion among military analysts is that the Russian army botched the war, and has been shown to be incompetent. This is the subject that I want to explore in detail in this article. I'd like to address the skill sets possessed by an army, and the societal culture from which the army comes. Suppose you have an expert gardener. She came from parents who valued gardening, and raised her to develop powerful gardening skills. Now suppose you have an expect carpenter. He came from parents who valued carpentry, and raised him to develop powerful carpentry skills. Now ask the gardener to do carpentry, and ask the carpenter to do gardening. Both will do a poor job, and may be totally baffled. You can train them to do their new jobs, but the training will take many months, but even after training they won't do their new jobs well, since they lack the cultural background to do so. I'm going to make the argument that Russia's army has the skills and culture to be effective within Russia, as in defending against Napoleon and Hitler, but does not have the skills and culture to be effective in an expeditionary war, as is currently occurring in Ukraine. Before making that argument, I'll give some examples. **** **** The Mfecane war (1820s) **** The first example is the Mfecane war ("the crushing") of the 1820s in southern Africa, a remarkable example of how a leader can change the skills and culture of an army, and turn it into a formidable expeditionary fighting force. The southern portion of Africa in the first decades of the 1800s was a region in great turmoil, with many different populations competing for resources. Among the indigenous populations, the Zulus were an obscure tribe in the Transvaal, the northern portion of what is now South Africa. The Zulus went from obscurity to world renown as a result of Shaka, born in 1787, who became the tribal chief in 1816, and who took the Zulu from being a tribe to being an empire. Standard practice in tribal wars of the time was that the fighters of each warring tribe would throw long spears from a distance at the fighters of the other tribe. Shaka changed both the skills and the culture by having his fighters carry short spears, requiring them to attack the other fighters are close range. Shaka revolutionized tribal warfare with these new kinds of spears and warfare techniques, resulting in the deaths of millions of indigenous Africans, by the time the war climaxed in 1828. Shaka's Zulu Empire left behind vast uninhabited regions by obliterating the populations that used to live there. The great Zulu Empire lasted for decades, until it was destroyed by the British in 1879 in the bloody Anglo-Zulu war. At the climax of that crisis war, the Zulus were dispersed, and the Zulu nation ended. **** **** Vietnam war **** A reader expressed surprise that the Russians have had more casualties in one month than the Americans had in the entire Vietnam war. Actually, this isn't surprising at all. A basic tenet of the American culture is that each individual human life is valuable, and is worthy of saving and protecting. So it's not surprising that the American armed forces placed a very high priority on reducing casualties, with the result that American casualties were low during the Vietnam war. The Americans had developed plenty of skills for fighting expeditionary wars. They had fought the Nazis and Imperial Japanese during World War II, and so by the time of the Vietnam War, they had developed powerful doctrines for winning wars with few casualties. That is the American culture. The North Vietnamese and Chinese cultures are very different. They place very little value on an individual human life. The result was different battle tactics that led to many casualties. During the Vietnam and Korean wars, they used human wave tactics, which means that they used an infantry of hundreds or thousands of soldiers, attacking a well-defended enemy position, intended to overwhelm the enemy by sheer weight of numbers and regardless of inevitable high casualties. This cultural difference actually gave the North Vietnamese a big tactical advantage during the Vietnam War. The North Vietnamese could suffer huge numbers of casualties and win because Americans did not want to suffer even a few casualties. In my recent book, "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War," I quoted Bui Diem, Saigon's Ambassador to Washington from 1967 to 1972, who gave his assessment of why America lost the war. He emphasized the cultural differences between the American and Vietnamese soldiers: <QUOTE>"In the eyes of the South Vietnamese, the Americans created for themselves extra difficulties by making the war too expensive by the way they fought it. The men from the "affluent society" brought into Vietnam a new kind of war never seen or even thought of before. The Vietnamese opened their eyes wide in bewilderment when they saw U.S. forces supplied with hot meals by helicopter while still in combat. They saw the thousands of unnecessary gadgets piled high in huge PXs, the hundreds of planes crossing the Pacific for the transport of American troops on rotation. They witnessed the more than generous use of bombs and ammunition by the U.S. forces, and hours of bombing and strafing . . . triggered in many instances by mere sniper fire."<END QUOTE> I'm not going to pass judgment on whether it's a good idea to send helicopters to provide hot means to soldiers on the front line. I'm simply pointing to this as a capability that requires a great deal of organizational skill and coordination, skills in logistics and command and control, and indicative of America's capabilities in executing an expeditionary war. England has had centuries of experience with expeditionary wars, and we inherited those skills. We built on those skills since WW II with the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghan wars. All of these wars have been politically controversial, but one thing they unequivocally accomplished was giving the American army the skills to fight an expeditionary war. This assessment illustrates powerfully how armies are as different from one another as gardeners and carpenters. There were vast differences in both skills and culture between the American and Vietnamese soldiers. Keep this in mind when we discuss the Russian army. In particular, the American ability to fight an expeditionary war with few casualties was and is unmatched in the world. However, as we saw in Vietnam, this doesn't necessarily mean that the American army always wins, since the American culture and skills are at a disadvantage when facing human wave attacks. **** **** Russia's history of crisis and non-crisis wars **** The Russian people hate the Chinese people but love the European people, even though Russia has been invaded by both, the worst invasion being the hated "Mongol Yoke" that followed the 1209 Mongol invasion of China, followed by an attack and conquest of almost all the Russian principalities, making them bitter vassals of the Mongol Empire. The major European invasions of Russia were all non-crisis (Awakening/Unraveling era) wars for Russia, fought in conjunction with a crisis war for Europe. These were the Great Northern War with Sweden during the European War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14), Napoleon's invasion (1812) following the French Revolution, and Hitler's invasion during World War II. Russia's army performed very well in defending "Mother Russia" during these wars, which were non-crisis wars even though they presented an existential crisis for Russia. Russia's crisis wars for the last few centuries were internal rebellions -- the Razin's peasant rebellion in the 1600s, Pugachev's Rebellion in the 1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and the Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s. In other words, Russia has never had a successful expeditionary crisis war. This leads me to posit the following claim: That Russia's army has been and is incompetent when executing an expeditionary war, but is extremely competent in fighting an invading army within Russia. In other words, the Russians don't have the culture and skills to fight an expeditionary war. I have to add that "Navigator" (David Schroeder), a military historian posting in the Generational Dynamics forum, disagrees with this claim. He says that the "trigger" for the Russian army to become extremely competent is when Mother Russia is being threatened. The current war in Ukraine may provide the answer to which of these claims is correct. **** **** Russia's incompetence in the Ukraine invasion **** There are obvious differences in skill and culture requirements between an army fighting a defensive internal war versus an army fighting an expeditionary war in another country. The local civilian population supports the army in one case, and opposes the army in the other case. Much of the incompetence of Russia's army in Ukraine can be attributed directly to the opposition by the local population. The following are things that I've heard analysts say to explain Russia's failure in Ukraine:
Contrast that with America's performance in Vietnam, where helicopters delivered hot meals to the soldiers in the front line. I'm not saying whether that's good or bad, but it does illustrate a mastery of supply line management that the Russians do not have. **** **** Russia's Winter War invasion of Finland (1939) **** In 1939, Russia's dictator Josef Stalin ordered an invasion of Finland to gain territory to serve as a buffer between Germany and Russia. This war is remarkably similar in many ways to Putin's current invasion of Ukraine. Here's how history.com describes it: <QUOTE>"On November 30, 1939, following a series of ultimatums and failed negotiations, the Soviet Red Army launched an invasion of Finland with half a million troops. Though vastly outnumbered and outgunned in what became known as the “Winter War,” the Finns had the advantage of fighting on home turf. Led by Marshal Carl Gustaf Mannerheim, they hunkered down behind a network of trenches, concrete bunkers and field fortifications on the Karelian Isthmus and beat back repeated Soviet tank assaults. Elsewhere on the frontier, Finnish ski troops used the rugged landscape to conduct hit-and-run attacks on isolated Soviet units. Their guerilla tactics were only aided by the freezing Finnish winter, which bogged the Soviets down and made their soldiers easy to spot against snowy terrain. One Finnish sniper, a farmer named Simo Häyhä, was eventually credited with over 500 kills. While the Finns put up a spirited resistance during the winter of 1939-1940, their troops were ultimately no match for the sheer immensity of the Red Army. In February 1940, following one of the largest artillery bombardments since World War I, the Soviets renewed their onslaught and overran the Finnish defenses on the Karelian Isthmus. With its forces low on ammunition and nearing the brink of exhaustion, Finland agreed to peace terms the following month. The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union, yet the country maintained its independence and later squared off against Russia a second time during World War II. For the Soviets, meanwhile, victory came at a heavy cost. During just three months of fighting, their forces suffered over 300,000 casualties compared to around 65,000 for the Finns. The Winter War may have also carried important consequences for World War II. Among other things, the Red Army’s lackluster performance is often cited as a key factor in Adolf Hitler’s mistaken belief that his June 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union would be a success."<END QUOTE> Russia's final "victory" over Finland was the result of what was essentially a human wave attack. Stalin has been quoted as saying, "Quantity has a quality all its own," referring to such an attack. So far, the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be very similar to the Soviet invasion of Finland. "Navigator," the military historian whom I quoted earlier, said that he believes that the Russians will make the "post Winter War" adjustments and begin a national militarization and mass mobilization. This will allow them to repeat the human wave attacks of 1939-40. **** **** Operation Barbarossa (1941), Hitler's invasion of Russia **** On June 22, 1941, Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler launched Operation Barbarossa, an invasion of the Soviet Union. More than 3 million German and Axis troops invaded the Soviet Union along an 1,800-mile-long front. But in this case, the roles of invader and defender were reversed from the Winter War, with the obvious consequences. Hitler's Blitzkrieg victories in Belgium and France made him overconfident, even though his attempted invasion of Britain was faltering. In Russia, the Nazi army made numerous blunders, and was overwhelmed by the long supply lines, the harsh Russian winter, and the fierce opposition of the Russian civilians, who were defending "Mother Russia." The Nazis attacked but failed to control any large cities -- Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow or Stalingrad. Hitler's defeat in Russia turned the tide decisively toward the Allies. **** **** Russia's invasion of Ukraine **** Few people believe that Russia will agree to any "peace deal" short of full conquest of Ukraine, and possibly Moldova, Poland, Romania, and the Baltics as well. Vladimir Putin expected a quick victory in Ukraine, and as his army suffered one setback after another, Putin is suffering from Cognitive Dissonance which will only infuriate him and cause him to double and triple down on the offensive. As suggested, Putin's next step may be national militarization and mass mobilization of the Russian population in defense of "Mother Russia," in preparation for a human wave assault on Ukraine. This would be similar to Stalin's actions in Finland in the Winter War. Of course, there are some significant differences between Russia's invasions of Finland and Ukraine, mainly the possible interventions of Nato and China. Poland and the East European countries cannot afford for Ukraine to lose, and China cannot afford for Russia to lose. This is a formula for a long war, a proxy war, and a war that will spread to the rest of Europe. **** **** The Regeneracy in Europe, Russia and America **** I've written about the generational theory concept of the "Regeneracy" for years: During a generational Crisis Era, bitterly opposed political factions put their political differences aside and unite against the common enemy, in a regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war. In my last article, I described how the Regeneracy applied to the European nations. All of these countries had significant political differences, but now they are increasingly united against Russia. What about Russia itself? There have been some scattered anecdotes about Russians turning against Putin, but most reports indicate that the vast majority of Russians support Putin's war in Ukraine, especially as he has cut off all foreign media and allow only state-run media that says that Mother Russia is defending against Nazis in Ukraine. In America, the position of the Biden administration is confusion, and laden with mixed messages, including contradictory statements by the president and vice-president. There are numerous reports quoting unnamed administration and military officials that Biden has been pressuring Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept any peace deal offered by the Russians, even one that gives up significant territory to the Russians. Biden's motivation would be that any other outcome would be a block to his fanatical support of the "green new deal." However, it's increasingly clear every day that Biden's war on the domestic fossil fuel industry is causing huge spikes in energy prices and inflation, which is causing Europe to suffer, and is providing the funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Zelenskyy is considered a hero by many Americans, while Vladimir Putin is considered evil incarnate, and this is causing many Democrats and Republicans to demand that Biden change policies. Biden has been forced to speed up military aid and weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The pressure is growing to support and encourage more domestic development of gas and oil, rather than beg Iran and Venezuela to produce more. This is the Regeneracy process in America, and it is continuing. **** **** A word of thanks **** After my last article, I was pleasantly surprised by the number of people who have written to me to wish me well, and to tell me how valuable my articles have been by providing a non-ideological explanation of what's actually going on in the world. By applying modern generational theory to historical and current events, I've apparently filled a very important need for a few thousand people, much more than I previously realized. It makes me want to go on, as best as I can. If any organization or college would like to set it up, I would be willing to give a Zoom course on Generational Dynamics. Here's the blurb: Twenty years ago I began developing Generational Dynamics, a methodology for analyzing historical and current events, based on Forrester's MIT System Dynamics applied to generational flows, and incorporating Chaos Theory and technology forecasting. My web sites, generationaldynamics.com and gdxforum.com, contain over 6,000 articles with thousands of analyses and predictions about hundreds of countries, and they've all come true or are trending true. None has been proven wrong. In addition, I've written four books on the history of Iran, China and Vietnam, and the history and theology of Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, Confucianism and Daoism. The major prediction over the last 20 years has been that we are headed for a global financial crisis and a world war against China. That time is now approaching. So now, the Russia-Ukraine war is just beginning, and it is expected to cause a chain reaction that will lead to a major European war, and within a couple of years to a world war and a global depression. I would also like to repeat my invitation to some organization or college that would like to take on the responsibility on further development of Generational Dynamics. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Vietnam, Buddhism, and the Vietnam War: How Vietnam became an economic powerhouse after the Vietnam War" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 4), March 2021 Paperback: 325 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738645/ John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ John Xenakis is author of: "Generational Dynamics Anniversary Edition - Forecasting America's Destiny", (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 3), January 2020, Paperback: 359 pages, $14.99, Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/Generational-Dynamics-Anniversary-Forecasting-Americas/dp/1732738629/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Nato, South Africa, Zulu Empire, Shaka, Vietnam War, Korean War, China, North Vietnam, Human wave tactics, Bui Diem, Mongols, Mongol Yoke, War of the Spanish Succession, Napoleon, French Revolution, Adolf Hitler, World War II, Finland, Winter War, Operation Barbarossa, Blitzkrieg, France, Belgium, Leningrad, St. Petersburg, Moscow, Stalingrad Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-03-2022 The Russo-Ukrainian War looks more like the consequences of the personality of Vladimir Putin than anything else. The West has had elderly leaders of democratic countries (Churchill during the Second World War... and even more so in 1955), Reagan, Berlusconi, Trump, and now Biden). The democratic system ensures that no man can rule alone and that a loyal opposition is necessary for keeping things honest. Berlusconi and Trump both had despotic tendencies, and those tendencies imploded. As Alzheimer's gutted Ronald Reagan, some competent people like George Shulz and Casper Weinberger did the real work and relegated Reagan to a ceremonial role. Trump's problems are those of an extreme narcissist meeting the Dunning-Kruger effect; he was too intellectually-shallow to realize how incompetent he was. One warning about Putin is Nicolae Ceausescu, who wielded dictatorial power over more than twenty years and became increasingly erratic. Putin is now at roughly the same age as Ceausescu was when he was overthrown and killed. Both Ceausescu and Putin brutally suppressed politics not theirs and ended up doing egregious misconduct which the rest of the world condemned. Putin fantasizes himself as a chess player, but know well: in those games that end in stalemate half of all chess players lose. Putin has no graceful exit. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-09-2022 *** 10-Apr-22 World View -- Ukraine war causes chaos in Asia -- Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Philippines This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** Ukraine war causes global food and fuel prices to spike **** Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan ousted by no-confidence vote on Saturday In 2011, sharp increases in global food prices led protests that started in Tunisia and spread like wildfire across the entire Mideast in something called the "Arab Awakening." There were coups in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and wars in Yemen and Syria are continuing to this day. With global food and fuel prices spiking, unrest is growing in several Asian nations, and there is the prospect of a new wildfire spreading across Asia. Ukraine has been the largest wheat exporter in the world, with countries in Asia, the Mideast and Africa largely dependent on Ukraine's exports through the Black Sea. But now Russia has shut down ports in the Black Sea, with the result that there are massive stockpiles of wheat in Ukraine that can't be exported. Russia's port blockade is creating global shortages of wheat, corn and cooking oils, resulting in food shortages and high food prices. Fertilizer and fuel prices have also been spiking globally. This is also caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine, but is also caused by President Biden's fanatical attack on the the American fossil fuel industry. **** **** Anti-government protests raging across Sri Lanka **** Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst economic crisis in decades, with shortages of food and fuel, and steep price rises. There are daily power custs, and people hae to queue for hours to get cooking gas and diesel. This has led to days of sometimes violent anti-government protest, with demands that president Gotabaya Rajapaksa step down. Watching the street protests on al-Jazeera, I saw many protesters carrying signs with slogans. Two of the most amusing slogans that I noticed were the following:
diplomacy," typically signing deals with the following terms:
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal, putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the seaport over to China. Furthermore, China not only has control of the Hambantota seaport, but it also has control of a large enclave of Chinese workers and their families who are employees of the seaport. The seaport project has been a disaster for Sri Lanka. Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid back. This debt crisis is on top of the spike in food and fuel prices, and is triggering large anti-government riots that could spiral. **** **** Pakistan constitutional crisis puts the government in chaos **** Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was ousted from power, after losing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday. A new prime minister will be chosen next week. Khan had created a constitutional crisis a week ago when he tried to prevent the no-confidence vote from occurring by dissolving parliament and calling for new elections. However, Pakistan's Supreme Court declared this to be illegal, and said that the no-confidence vote had to go ahead. So it did go ahead, and Khan lost. However, it's far from clear that Khan will go quietly. He claims that he will not recognize an opposition government. He also claims, without evidence, that there was a US-led conspiracy to remove him. It's pretty standard behavior for any politician around the world to blame their problems on the United States, and Khan is no exception. Many people fear that Khan will refuse to step down, but will assume dictatorial power to prevent the opposition party and prime minister from taking power. This could lead to violence or even a new civil war. It's been 75 since since the 1947 Partition War between Hindus and Muslims that followed the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, so, like much of the world, Pakistan is overdue for a new generational Crisis war. The spike in food and fuel price is hitting Karachi and the interior very hard, and that might be the trigger. **** **** Philippines facing new election as Duterte sucks up to China **** Chinese coast guard vessels and warships have been harassing Philippines fishing and research vessels in Philippine waters adjacent to the South China Sea. This harassment activity has been going on for years, as China has illegally annexed and militarized the South China Sea, including waters historically part of the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries. When I did my research for my book "World View: War between China and Japan," I found that China has absolutely no historical claim to the South China Sea, and this is consistent the finding of the UN court in the Hague that China's claim to the South China Sea is illegal. China's claims are simply a hoax. Ever since Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte came to power in 2016, he has sucked up to China. In fact, in 2018, Duterte recounted a conversation with Xi Jinping that made the threat of war explicit. Xi said that if the Philippines drills for oil and gas in its own territorial waters, then China will go to war. Duterte concluded: <QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE> So Duterte appeased China and gave in to all of China's demands. In a phone call on Friday between Duterte and Xi Jinping, Duterte continued his policy of appeasing China, while Xi promised to invest more money in the Philippines. However, Duterte's term as president will end in June, and a new president may or may not continue the policy of appeasing China. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/ Sources
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Arab Awakening, Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, China, debt trap, Hambantota seaport, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Partition war, Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, Xi Jinping Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-12-2022 *** 13-Apr-22 World View -- Brooklyn subway shooter may have been targeting Asians This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Brooklyn subway shooter may have been targeting Asians **** Frank R. James, 62, person of interest in Brooklyn subway shooting (NYPD News) Early on Tuesday morning, during rush-hour at a Brooklyn subway station, a man in a construction vest carrying a backpack reached into his backpack and donned a gas mask, then reached into his backpack and set off an explosive smoke canister, and then pulled out a gun and shot at least 16 people. All the injured people are recovering. The suspected shooter, Frank R. James, is the subject of a manhunt. The incident took place in the Sunset Park neighborhood, predominantly home to Asian and Hispanic communities. The suspect, Frank R. James, is a 62 year old black man. The police have said that the motive is unknown, but the fact that the perpetrator is black and the target is an Asian neighborhood, means that this act of violence fits an increasingly familiar pattern -- black men targeting Asians, especially Asian women. Asian women have been attacked by blacks, whites and Hispanics, but the majority have been by blacks, according to a report by the National Institutes of Health. **** **** Analysis by NIH of black hate crimes against Asian American women **** In March of last year, there was a mass shooting of Asian women in Atlanta. The shooter was white, but it gave rise to questions about what was going on. I wrote an article on the subject, based on a posting in January by the National Institutes of Health, which used data from the Department of Justice to "examine the nature and characteristics of hate crimes against Asian Americans." The report compared hate crimes against Asian Americans, African Americans, and Hispanics. The following is an edited version of what I wrote in that article. The most important finding of the report is that perpetrators of hate crimes against Asians are most likely to be blacks, for economic reasons. This is something that's been known anecdotally for a long time, but the NIH report confirms it. It's also clear that the writers of the NIH report don't want you to easily find this result, probably for fear that if they expose the truth, they'll get fired or canceled. You have to go far into the report to find the results (search for "Table 3" or "Findings of this study, however, also provide support to the minority-specific model"), but the findings are clear:
So now we return to Frank R. James, the 62 year old black "person of interest" in Tuesday's Brooklyn subway shooting. James is still at large, so we still can't be sure that he was actually the shooter, we still can't be sure whether he had help, and we still can't be sure what his motive was. We can imagine that James has built up 62 years of hatred and resentment against the American system, and against Asian Americans in particular, as suggested by the NIH report, but we may not know for sure for many days or weeks. All we can say at this time is that we see a familiar pattern, which becomes worse every month, identified by the National Institutes of Health, of Asian American women being victims of hate crimes by blacks, and that problem still has to be recognized and solved, whether or not Frank R. James is Tuesday's shooter. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brooklyn, Sunset Park, Asian-Americans, Frank R. James, National Institutes of Health, Department of Justice Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |