Generational Dynamics World View

Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version

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RE: 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2017

(02-14-2017, 03:58 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: > I've been holding back on this issue for some time, so here
> goes...

> I, too, have walked away from this forum once before--only to
> embrace it again--for much the same reasons cited by SomeGuy. (I,
> for one, would hate to see him go.) One of the main attractions
> of The Fourth Turning for me was its nonpartisan approach
> to generational theory. Indeed, the book struck me as
> distinctly apolitical, and at a time when the political
> passions of the Left and Right were running hot--and still are.
> I'd like to think this forum is an "oasis of civility in an
> increasingly uncivil society." That would be the ideal anyway.
> The webmaster should be committed--and I'm not saying he isn't--to
> keeping comments civil. But too often, some of the overheated
> rhetoric on this forum has been an affront to standards of
> civility. Allowing trolls to blog unchecked and uncensored on
> this forum runs the same risk as that stated in Gresham's Law: the
> bad drives out the good.

> I blog on this forum, not for affirmation, but to have my views
> challenged, perhaps even changed by dint of some
> reasoning much more persuasive than my own. I was not the kind of
> school teacher who stood in front of the class with arms folded
> and dared the students to disagree with me. (Quite the contrary,
> it was actually very hard to elicit any debate at all by the time
> I left the teaching profession in 2003.) On this forum I expect a
> civil and spirited debate, one that offers sound arguments and
> counterarguments. And, yes, pushback that exposes my own faulty
> logic or political hypocrisy. I'm not looking to form a Mutual
> Admiration Society with anyone here. I might agree with you
> wholeheartedly one moment but then stringently disagree with you
> in the next.

> Having said that, though, I will admit that I do not suffer fools
> gladly. By that, I mean--first and foremost--mean people. If you
> cannot best my argument by superior reason, I will no longer deign
> to debate you if all you have by way of rebuttal are ad
> hominen attacks. There's quite enough of that already in our
> body politic today. And by the way that didn't start with
> Millennials. Check out the heated exchange between William
> F. Buckley and Gore Vidal in the historical documentary The Best
> of Enemies, if you want to trace where our split-screen TV
> shout-fests originated.

> So all I can say in conclusion is: Practice tact. I struggle with
> that myself sometimes.

Being tactful is a great strategy when you're dealing with someone you
know, and you're perhaps having a friendly or even unfriendly argument
about something, where both people know that they'll have to continue
"living together," and won't cross too many red lines.

But tact only backfires when it comes to dealing with trolls, abusive
people who are trying to destroy you. For these people, tact is a
sign of weakness that energizes them and motivates them to become even
more abusive.

The common bromide for dealing with trolls is "just ignore them."
These are people who are well aware of that strategy and know how to
take advantage of it. If you ignore them, then they'll declare
victory and in the future will repeatedly claim that they crushed you.
The extreme form of "just ignore them" is leaving, and that gives the
troll total victory.

There are many trolls around. Sometimes it's sexual, as when a troll
becomes abusive with a woman, or a woman starts backstabbing her ex or
his new girlfriend. More often it's ideological, with the troll being
a babbling idiot, except that he believes that he can win a political
or ideological argument simply by being the most abusive person
online. It's well-known by now that there are many paid trolls online
whose job it is to attack people who write about the wrong things.
I've been attacked by many of these trolls. In the past couple of
years, Russia had hundreds of paid trolls, attacking everyone in
sight. This really backfired on Russia, because now even someone who
legitimately supports Putin or al-Assad is suspected of being a troll
-- and probably is.

I've learned through experience that if you "reason" with these
trolls, and answer "constructively" or "tactfully," then they only
escalate their attacks, which become increasingly vitriolic and
offensive. I've learned that the only way to deal with bullies is to
respond to them in kind. Ignoring them doesn't work either, as they
respond with a flood of taunting, offensive and demeaning posts that
accuse you of being too stupid to answer. I personally am absolutely
not willing to tolerate just sitting here and being a punching bag for
that kind of person.

It's usually not difficult to take advantage of their stupidity. In
most cases, paid trolls are just working from talking points supplied
by their trollmasters, so sooner or later they make a mistake. Once
that happens, you can turn the tables and attack them for their
stupidity. I've been able to thrash a number of bullies using this
technique. It's not tactful, but it works.

RE: 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2017

(02-14-2017, 08:13 PM)Marypoza Wrote: > & John, if you don't mind my asking, exactly who is paying you?

Nobody pays me. I provide Generational Dynamics forecasts and
analyses as a public service for those people who want to know what's
going on in the world, and want to use that information to prepare
themselves, their families, their communities and their nation.

In today's world, almost all media sources are ideologically based,
and Generational Dynamics is an ideology-free methodology, based on
Jay Forrester's System Dynamics applied to generational flows and on
Chaos Theory. I don't get paid in money, but it's very satisfying to
me that many people write to me and say, "Thank you for what you're
doing. You're always right, and you're the only one who tells the
truth."

I personally have no ideology except one: I want to see America
survive the approaching world war. If I can do my small part to help
achieve that goal, then it's worth it, for as long as I can.

That's not to say that I wouldn't like to be paid. I've tried to get
someone to pay me, but no one's interested. If you'd like to pay me,
or you know someone who would, I'm interested.

RE: 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning - tg63 - 02-15-2017

(02-15-2017, 11:31 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [quote pid='21275' dateline='1487105903']
...
The common bromide for dealing with trolls is "just ignore them."
These are people who are well aware of that strategy and know how to
take advantage of it. If you ignore them, then they'll declare
victory and in the future will repeatedly claim that they crushed you.
...

[/quote]

In my experience, yes, this happens. But seriously, they are declaring that to nobody (other than clones of themselves). On this board, there are a whole lot of lurkers who have figured out who to read seriously, and who to gloss over based on their posting history ... so honestly, who cares what they declare? And when ignored over time, they will eventually get tired & move on. I say IGNORE! Sleepy

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-15-2017

A US victory in the eventual 4T war is possible only if the boomers cede power to the younger generations rather than trying to hog the leadership positions in the hope that an establishment Boomer would remembered as the Washington, Lincoln, or FDR of the 4T. Look at what the political establishment is trying to do with President Trump's proposed policies; they are trying to Force Trump into accepting the establishment boomer party-line of automatic "Assad is evil", "Putin is evil", "Xi Jinping is evil" etc. Establishment elites need to face it that a large proportion of Americans don't consider or regard what Assad is doing as evil; in fact many Xers and Millies consider Assad by ridding his country of Islamists and combating the ISIS scourge, many consider Assad to be doing civilization a service. The establishment deliberately neglects the fact that a large segment of Trumps appeal and reason why he was elected president in the first place is because many citizens want the existing policies on that regard fundamentally changed. The Neocon/Neoliberal/Globalist party elites in both parties act like their entitled to own the US, forgetting that the country belongs first and foremost to the American People.

RE: 9-Feb-17 World View -- Mainstream media frets over Steve Bannon, the Fourth Turning - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2017

(02-15-2017, 04:45 PM)tg63 Wrote: > In my experience, yes, this happens. But seriously, they are
> declaring that to nobody (other than clones of themselves). On
> this board, there are a whole lot of lurkers who have figured out
> who to read seriously, and who to gloss over based on their
> posting history ... so honestly, who cares what they declare? And
> when ignored over time, they will eventually get tired & move on.
> I say IGNORE!

Tell that to Sean Love.

16-Feb-17 World View -- Obamacare and Britain's NHS continue in financial 'death spir - John J. Xenakis - 02-15-2017

*** 16-Feb-17 World View -- Obamacare and Britain's NHS continue in financial 'death spiral'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Obamacare follows Nixon's wage-price controls in financial 'death spiral'
Britain's National Health Service continues its own death spiral

****
**** Obamacare follows Nixon's wage-price controls in financial 'death spiral'
****

[Image: g170215b.jpg]

President Richard Nixon announces wage-price controls on August 15, 1971

In July 2009, a couple of days after President Barack Obama's health
plan was announced, I wrote "Obama's health plan, a proposal of economic insanity, appears to be losing support"
, in which I said the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>" Politicians say that our health system is "broken,"
> and perhaps it is. Politicians say that health-related costs have
> been rising faster than inflation, and they say that some people
> (the poor, the unemployed, the minorities, the sick, etc.) don't
> have health insurance.
>
> In other words, the worst of what the politicians say is wrong
> with our health care system may well be true, but the insanity is
> believing that you can just pass a law and the problems will be
> solved. As bad as things are now, passing a 1,000 page law will
> make things much, much worse. ...
>
> President Obama's health care plan amounts to price controls and
> rationing. This is a recipe for total disaster."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

I knew this because I'd seen the same thing happen before, in the
1970s with President Richard Nixon's wage-price controls. Nixon's
program was supposed to bring the inflation rate from 4% down to 2%.
This is exactly the kind of thing that liberals really love. But
within three years, Nixon's controls had cause inflation to surge to
12%.

Like many liberal economic programs, including Obamacare, Nixon's
controls were an utter disaster for the economy, and the economy
didn't recover for almost a decade. Whatever you think of Watergate,
at least Nixon had the decency to agree to end wage-price controls
after three years, after enough damage had been done

The signs that Obamacare was collapsing have been clear now for almost
two years, as several large insurance companies, UnitedHealthCare,
Aetna, BlueCross BlueShield, and others, have announced partial or
complete pullouts from Obamacare because of massive financial losses.

On Wednesday another company, Humana Inc., announced that it will
leave the Obamacare exchanges at the end of 2017. According to the
company's statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Regarding the company’s individual commercial medical
> coverage (Individual Commercial), substantially all of which is
> offered on-exchange through the federal Marketplaces [Obamacare],
> Humana has worked over the past several years to address market
> and programmatic challenges in order to keep coverage options
> available wherever it could offer a viable product. This has
> included pursuing business changes, such as modifying networks,
> restructuring product offerings, reducing the company’s geographic
> footprint and increasing premiums.
>
> All of these actions were taken with the expectation that the
> company’s Individual Commercial business would stabilize to the
> point where the company could continue to participate in the
> program. However, based on its initial analysis of data associated
> with the company’s healthcare exchange membership following the
> 2017 open enrollment period, Humana is seeing further signs of an
> unbalanced risk pool. Therefore, the company has decided that it
> cannot continue to offer this coverage for 2018. Through the
> remainder of 2017, Humana remains committed to serving its current
> members across 11 states where it offers Individual Commercial
> products. And, as it has done in the past, Humana will work
> closely with its state partners as it navigates this
> process."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Humana's announcement refers to the "2017 open enrollment period,"
which is the period when people can enroll for 2017 coverage. In
Tennessee, for example, 15% fewer people signed up in the 2017 open
enrollment period than in the previous year.

Humana's announcement also refers to an "unbalanced risk pool." This
means that the reason that fewer people are signing up is that healthy
people are not signing up, which sick people continue to sign up at
the same rate. This means that fewer healthy people are available to
pay for health care for sick people.

Health insurer Aetna lost $450 million in Obamacare exchanges last
year. It has already pulled out of most Obamacare markets, but hasn't
announced yet whether it will pull out of the remaining ones. Aetna
CEO Mark Bertolini said that the "death spiral" of Obamacare is going
to continue:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s not going to get any better; it’s getting worse.
> You saw my friend, Bruce, at Humana say, 'We're out.' ...
>
> That logic shows just how much the risk pool is deteriorating in
> the ACA [Obamacare] and how poorly structured the funding
> mechanism and premium model is. I think you will see a lot more
> withdrawals this year of plans. ... My anticipation would be that
> in '18, we’ll see a lot of markets without any coverage at
> all."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Supporters of Obamacare point to statistics that millions more people
are insured than before Obamacare. Well of course they are. That's
because over 80% of all Obamacare customers receive big subsidies.
Give people something for free and they'll take it.

Even so, fewer people are signing up because being "insured" with
Obamacare often means paying big monthly premiums and then not really
being insured at all. Many people with Obamacare have Medicaid and
can't find a doctor to treat them, or they have something like a
$10,000 deductible, so they have to pay their entire bills anyway. My
guess is that millions more people today are effectively uninsured
than were uninsured before Obamacare.

This is exactly the kind of thing that I predicted would happen when I
wrote my article in July 2009. This isn't rocket science. This is
common sense. But when policymakers in the Obama administration are
too stupid to understand even Economics 1.01, then there is no common
sense.

Obamacare is an economic disaster of epic proportions, worse than
Nixon's wage-price controls. Congress is now considering various
"repeal or replace" options to salvage something from the Obamacare
disaster, but as in the case of Nixon's wage-price controls, the
destruction is so deep that it will take years to repair it, and
things will get worse before they get better. Human Press Release and The Hill and Business Insider and The Tennessean

Related Articles

****
**** Britain's National Health Service continues its own death spiral
****

As I've been reporting since 2015, Britain's National Health Service
(NHS) is facing an existential crisis, with a huge and accelerating
deficit expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) by 2020.

The NHS is massively cutting services, with hospitals reducing the
number of beds, and more than one-third closing their maternity units
and their Accident & Emergency departments (known in America as
Emergency Rooms).

Since surgery is extremely expensive, the NHS is taking several steps
to reduce the amount of surgery:

Lifestyle rationing: Smokers and overweight people are being
denied surgery and other treatment.
Waiting times for surgery are being increased, sometimes to over
four months.
In "shocking revelations," it turns out that NHS employees are
flying family members from foreign countries into Britain for free
medical care, getting them admitted to hospital quickly, ahead of
British systems, and then flying them back home, leaving British
citizens to pay the bill. New proposals may force foreign visitors to
pay cash upfront in order to get treated in Britain. A Department for
Health spokesman issued a hard-hitting statement: "Any NHS staff
member found to be doing this should be reported to the appropriate
authorities."

With NHS in its own "death spiral," supporters are demanding huge tax
increases before 2018 in order to maintain the current levels of
service. Whether taxpayers can afford those huge increases remains to
be seen. Guardian (London) and Belfast Telegraph and London Express and Guardian (21-Apr-2015)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Obamacare, Barack Obama, Richard Nixon,
Humana Inc., UnitedHealthCare, BlueCross BlueShield,
Aetna, Mark Bertolini, Britain, National Health Service, NHS

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

17-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan promises to avenge 'each drop of blood' after multip - John J. Xenakis - 02-16-2017

*** 17-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan promises to avenge 'each drop of blood' after multiple terror attacks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Pakistan again in shock as Sufi shrine bombing is fifth terror attack in a week
Monday's terror attack in Lahore Pakistan kills dozens
Pakistan's government promises that each drop of blood will be avenged

****
**** Pakistan again in shock as Sufi shrine bombing is fifth terror attack in a week
****

[Image: g170216b.jpg]

A Pakistani covered with blood sits with the body of a blast victim on Thursday (AFP)

The people of Pakistan are once again expressing shock at the
continuing string of violent terrorist attacks that target specific
religious groups, including Sufis, Shia Muslims, and Christians.

On Thursday, a suicide bomber blew himself at a Sufi shrine, the Lal
Shahbaz Qalandar shrine in Sehwan, just north of Karachi, killing 76
people and injuring several hundred more. The shrine was targeted
during a a Sufi ritual called Dhamaal, when hundreds of devotees were
present inside the premises of the mausoleum of the saint Lal Shahbaz
Qalandar, which is the reason for huge numbers of casualties.

Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom) claimed responsibility.
JuA has long been one of the terrorist groups under the umbrella group
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). JuA split off from TTP in the middle
of 2014 in a disagreement caused by TTP's plans to hold peace talks
with Pakistan's government. JuA rejoined TTP in 2015, but has also
declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). For that reason, ISIS is also claiming responsibility for
the attack.

On March 15, 2015, JuA claimed responsibility for suicide bombers at
two churches, one Catholic and one Protestant, also in Lahore, killing
15 people and injuring 70. Dawn (Pakistan) and BBC and AP

****
**** Monday's terror attack in Lahore Pakistan kills dozens
****

On Monday, a strong explosion at Chairing Cross in Lahore, Pakistan,
killed at least 16 people and injured 73 more. The incident occurred
as hundreds of pharmacists were gathered to protest a new regulatory
law. Some analysts claim that the intended target was not the
pharmacists but the police guarding the protest. Jamaat ul-Ahrar
(JuA, Assembly of Freedom) took credit for Sunday's explosion in
Lahore.

On March 27 of last year, JuA took credit for the Easter massacre of
Christians in Lahore in a terror attack. That attack killed more than
69 people, mostly women and children, and injured more than 300. That
attack was supposed to kill Christians, but as it turned out, most of
the people killed were Muslims. At the time, a JuA spokesman issued a
statement: "Members of the Christian community who were celebrating
Easter today were our prime target. [However,] we didn't want to kill
women and children. Our targets were male members of the Christian
community."

There have been several terror attacks in the last week. On Sunday a
newsman was killed when his van was attacked. On Wednesday, three
suicide bombers killed seven people when they targeted villages around
Peshawar in northwest Pakistan. Daily Pakistan and Geo TV (Pakistan)

****
**** Pakistan's government promises that each drop of blood will be avenged
****

In what has become a regular ritual, the government of Pakistan is
once again declaring war on the Taliban. According to critics, the
government only follows through half-heartedly on such announcements,
distinguishing "the good Taliban," which attacks targets in India,
from "the bad Taliban," which attacks targets in Pakistan. Often, the
same group is involved in both kinds of attacks.

Speaking on Thursday, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar
Javed Bajwa promised that each drop of blood will be avenged:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Each drop of nation’s blood shall be avenged, and
> revenged immediately. No more restraint for anyone. ...
>
> The active cooperation among the valorous citizen of the country,
> the Army, Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) and intelligence
> agencies is cornerstone of Pakistan’s success against terrorism.
>
> The terrorists are trying to regroup in safe havens in Afghanistan
> and are attempting to spread doubts and despondency in the
> society, hence we all collectively shall fail their desperate
> maneuvers.
>
> Hostile agencies should avoid playing with regional peace and
> stability as we reserve the right to respond, despite our current
> policy of restraint."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

After a terror attack, many Pakistan Taliban terrorists flee across
the border into Afghanistan, where Pakistan's security forces are not
permitted to follow. Many Pakistanis blame India for providing safe
havens in Afghanistan to Pakistani Taliban terrorists. The News (Pakistan) and Pakistan Observer and India Today

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Lal Shahbaz Qalandar shrine, Sehwan,
Sufi, Dhamaal, Lahore, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Chief of Army Staff, COAS, General Qamar Javed Bajwa,
Afghanistan, India

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

18-Feb-17 World View -- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' - John J. Xenakis - 02-17-2017

*** 18-Feb-17 World View -- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit
Ireland demands a 'soft border,' while Scotland contemplates independence

****
**** Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' and reverse Brexit
****

[Image: g170217b.jpg]

Tony Blair on Friday

Britain's former prime minister Tony Blair called for the people "to
rise up in defense of what we believe – calmly, patiently, winning the
argument by the force of argument; but without fear and with the
conviction we act in the true interests of Britain," to persuade the
electorate to change their minds and decide that Britain should remain
in the European Union after all.

Blair's speech comes two weeks after Britain's House of Commons voted
overwhelmingly to authorize Prime Minister Theresa May to invoke
"Article 50," which means that the real negotiations will begin
between Britain and the EU. According to the relevant treaty, Britain
will officially leave the EU exactly two years after Article 50 is
invoked. It's now expected that Article 50 will be invoked
early in March.

Blair is an extremely controversial figure, even though he won three
elections and was Prime Minister for a decade. The people on the
right hate him because he's in the Labor Party. The people in the
Labor Party hate him because he defended Britain's participation in
the Iraq war. So I suppose he reasoned that when you're hated that
much, then you really have nothing to lose by taking an unpopular
stand on an issue.

Blair is concerned that the far right is so dominating the Brexit
issue that millions of people who are against Brexit have no way to
articulate their feelings:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They will claim we’re dividing the country by making
> the case. It is they who divide our country – generation from
> generation, North from South, Scotland from England, those born
> here from those who came to our country precisely because of what
> they thought it stood for and what they admired."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Blair is referring to the fact that younger generations, who voted
against Brexit, believe that they are being left without a future
because of the selfish pro-Brexit vote of the older generations. He
refers to the fact that while England and Wales voted for Brexit,
Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against it, and they're being
forced out of the EU against their will. And of course the last
sentence refers to the bitter immigration issue.

Boris Johnson, one of the leaders of the pro-Brexit campaign,
and current Britain's Foreign Secretary, was his usual
colorful self in responding to Blair. He said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is a discussion we had most of last year and it
> came out very firmly in favor of leaving the EU.
>
> We heard all these arguments last year - not a thing has changed -
> and I think it really is insulting the intelligence of the
> electorate to say that they got it wrong."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

He called Tony Blair the "Remoaner-in-chief" (playing on the word
"remain"), and said that people should turn off the TV when Blair
appears. Tony Blair's speech - transcript and Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London)

Related Articles

****
**** Ireland demands a 'soft border,' while Scotland contemplates independence
****

Of the four nations in the United Kingdom, England and Wales voted
in favor of Brexit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland opposed it.
People and politicians in both regions are furious that they're
being forced to leave the European Union against their will.

On September 18, 2014, Scotland held a referendum on the question of
whether Scotland should leave the UK and become an independent
country. This would have dissolved the 1707 union between England and
Scotland that came out of the War of the Spanish Succession. Voters
rejected the referendum, with 55.3% voting no. Many in Scotland are
bitter that they are going to be forced to leave the European Union
even though they voted 62% against Brexit.

In his speech, Tony Blair said that Scotland's demands for
independence from Britain are "more credible" because of Brexit, and
that a new referendum was "back on the table."

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, and leader of Scotland's
pro-independence movement has always been a bitter political enemy of
Tony Blair, but on this issue she says, "There’s a quality of analysis
& argument in Blair's speech today that has been totally lacking from
Labor to date." She added:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The argument is now very different than it was in
> 2014 and is even more compelling than it was in 2014. Because
> what Brexit has shown is that within the UK Scotland’s voice isn’t
> listened to and doesn’t appear to count for much, so the argument
> for taking control, taking charge of our own society and our place
> in the world becomes ever more strong."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, several Scottish ministers disagreed with Sturgeon, saying
that only about 25% of the people of Scotland want a new referendum.
Scottish politician Willie Rennie said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The case for independence is weaker, not stronger,
> now, especially with the pounds 15 billion black hole in the
> Scottish public finances that would hit our NHS and
> schools."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

For Northern Ireland, the reality of Brexit goes well beyond
economic issues. Once Britain leaves the EU, Northern Ireland
will also leave the EU, while the Republic of Ireland (Southern
Ireland) will remain in the EU. At that point, they will
no longer be part of the same country, but will be two separate
countries. The border between the two will be the only remaining
land border between the UK and the EU.

Ireland has a long bitter history of religious and factional wars, and
it's only in recent years that the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland has been open for free travel of people and goods. So many
people are opposed to the idea of jeopardizing the open border and,
as in the case of Scotland, are furious that London is making
decisions that will deeply affect the lives of the Irish.

Edna Kenny, the prime minister of the Republic of Ireland,
said that avoiding a "hard border" is essential for the people
on the entire island.

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[L]et me be absolutely clear on one point. It is a
> matter of vital national interest for Ireland that we do not
> return to the days of a hard border that we knew only too well. Or
> indeed create a new one in the future.
>
> The European Union has always been about removing barriers, about
> bringing people together in peace and prosperity. The treaty of
> Rome, which we will celebrate on its 60th anniversary next month,
> is one of the greatest peace agreements in history. Without it,
> there could have been no Good Friday Agreement.
>
> So, I am in absolutely no doubt that the European Union, which has
> done so much to support reconciliation on this island, will defend
> the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement. I am confident
> that the European Union will not bring us back to a border of
> division."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Unfortunately, Kenny and the other Irish politicians will have little
to say about it. An open border would permit anyone to migrate from
Europe to the UK simply by passing through Ireland. Similarly, goods
could be transferred from Europe to the UK by traveling across the
border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. With most UK and EU
politicians deeply nationalistic and deeply angry with each other,
there may be little charity available for the Irish people, who have
already learned that their wishes carry little weight in London.
Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Tony Blair, Theresa May,
Article 50, European Union, Boris Johnson,
Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, War of the Spanish Succession,
Willie Rennie, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Edna Kenny

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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19-Feb-17 World View -- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal - John J. Xenakis - 02-18-2017

*** 19-Feb-17 World View -- China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal
Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea

****
**** China announces it will block imports of North Korea's coal
****

[Image: g170218b.jpg]

Kim Jong-nam (L), the assassinated half-brother of Kim Jong-un ® (AP)

Two events in the last week -- North Korea's test of a long-range
ballistic missile and the assassination, possibly by North Korean
agents, of Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of president Kim Jong-un --
have infuriated and embarrassed China's leaders, since they enormously
complicate China's foreign policy.

The ballistic missile test is particularly troubling to China's
leadership for several reasons:

It violates UN Security Council resolutions supported by
China. Furthermore, the missile test threatens the political
stability of the entire region, and China's leaders object when any
country other than China threatens the regional stability.
The missiles begin tested, while nominally intended for use
against Japan, South Korea and the United States, could also be used
against targets in China, if the child dictator Kim Jong-un feels
threatened in some way by China.
China has vigorously objected to the deployment in South Korea of
the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense
system, claiming that the defensive missiles are not needed and that
they in some way threaten China. North Korea's ballistic missile test
makes the THAAD deployment in South Korea even more
necessary.

China's announcement on Saturday that it would suspend all coal
shipments from North Korea was a surprise, but not totally unexpected.
On Monday of last week, the day after the ballistic missile test,
China prevented a North Korean ship from unloading a shipment of
16,295 tons coal, worth about US$1 million, at a Chinese port, and
ordered that it be returned to North Korea. However, China blamed the
rejection not on the ballistic missile test, but instead on a claim
that the coal contained higher-than-permissible level of mercury.

China's announcement could have significant economic impact on North
Korea. In order to import foreign goods, North Korea needs foreign
reserves. In order to get foreign reserves, it needs to export goods.
About 90% of North Korea's exports go to China, and most of that is
coal. So this announcement will severely limit the foreign goods that
North Korea can import.

The intent is that by limiting North Korea's ability to import, the
country will be unable to import that equipment required for further
development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. It's not clear
that this objective is realistic, as Kim Jong-un has previously been
willing to allow his people to starve rather than to allow his nuclear
weapons program to starve. No matter what the intent, Kim will let
his people starve and will torture, jail and execute anyone who
objects.

China implemented a partial ban on coal imports from North Korea last
year, but left open a loophole that would allow some coal imports if
they would benefit the North Korean people. The partial ban turned
out to be a joke, because North Korean manipulated the loophole and
actually increased coal imports to China by 12-14% after the partial
ban was announced, which was extremely embarrassing to China.

China criticizes other nations for destabilizing the region, even
though China continually destabilizes the region by confiscating other
countries' territories and building illegal military bases in the
South China Sea, while threatening Japan in the East China Sea. This
entire political strategy is being thrown into chaos by the actions of
North Korea.

China has the ability to bring North Korea to its knees economically,
but both China and Kim Jong-un are well aware that doing so is a very
high-risk strategy. A government coup in Pyongyang, North Korea's
capital city, could bring to power someone that favors peaceful
reunification with South Korea -- something that's quite possible now
that three or four generations have grown up since the end of World
War II and the Korean War. Or an even worse scenario is that a
retaliatory act by Kim Jong-un might be directed at either China or
South Korea (or Japan or the US), and this could lead to a war on the
Korean Peninsula that would draw in the Chinese military and would
result in millions of North Korean refugees pouring into China.

The point is that China is rapidly running out of choices. Allowing
Kim Jong-un to continue ballistic missile and nuclear weapons
development is extremely dangerous to China, but trying to stop that
development with economic sanctions is also extremely dangerous. One
can only speculate what China might try next -- perhaps some sort of
military action or commando raid on North Korean military targets.
But this is just one more area, like the situations in Taiwan and Hong
Kong, where China's leaders are running out of time and they know it,
and may become desperate enough to do something stupid. Yonhap News (Seoul) and BBC and Washington Post

Related Articles

****
**** Assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother in Malaysia threatens relations with China and North Korea
****

Police in Malaysia have arrested four suspects believed to be linked
to the assassination on Wednesday Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of
Kim Jong-un, the president of North Vietnam.

A woman tentatively identified as 28-year-old Doan Thi Huong of
Vietnam has been positively identified as the assassin from CCTV
footage from Kuala Lumpur International Airport. She allegedly
covered Kim Jong-nam's face with a cloth laced with poison, causing
his death within minutes. Before being captured, she changed her
appearance several times. On Wednesday, she was wearing a white shirt
with the large letters "LOL" on the front. A second woman said that
they both thought that the whole thing was a prank sponsored by a
reality TV show.

It has not been proven whether North Korea is responsible for the
assassination, and there are other actors that might have wanted him
dead. Jong-nam was playboy, and one can even imagine that the
assassination might have been launched by a former girlfriend. But
most people believe that Kim Jong-nam was killed under orders of his
half-brother, Kim Jong-un, North Korea's child dictator.

This is not the first execution of a family member. On New Year's Day
2014, Kim Jong-un announced that he had ordered the execution of his
uncle and mentor Jang Song-thaek, calling him "factionalist scum."
According to unconfirmed reports at the time, Kim had his uncle thrown
into a room with several ravenous dogs that hadn't eaten in several
days. So although Kim Jong-nam wasn't eaten by ravenous dogs, the
execution of Jang Song-thaek provides a recent precedent for the
execution of close family members.

Malaysia has always gone out of its way to maintain good relations
with China, but the assassination of Kim Jong-ang in Kuala Lumpur
airport, whether ordered by North Korea or not, is causing a rift in
relations between the two countries.

North Korea demanded the immediate return of the dead body to North
Korea. Malaysia responded that the death occurred on Malaysian soil,
and a full series of autopsies would be performed first. Furthermore,
Malaysia would not return the body to North Korea until a DNA sample
from Kim Jong-un was provided, in order to complete the autopsy.

On Friday, close to midnight, North Korea's ambassador to Malaysia,
Kang Chol, stood in front of the morgue where the body was lying and
gave a hysterical rant:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We strongly urge and demand the Malaysian side not to
> be entangled with a political plot by the hostile forces towards
> the DPRK [North Korea] who want to damage image of our republic.
> And, to release the body immediately. ...
>
> The Malaysian side forced the post-mortem without our permission
> and witnessing. We will categorically reject the result of the
> post-mortem conducted unilaterally excluding our attendance. They
> are colluding with the hostile forces towards us who are desperate
> to harm us of malice."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's not clear who the "hostile forces" are, but they're assumed to be
China or South Korea.

On Saturday, Malaysia's Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr S. Subramaniam
responded to the North Korean ambassador:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea can reject or show disapproval. But we
> are doing things according to our law. Something happened in our
> country. We don't do it according to their law. If murder or
> death (occurs) in our country, there is a process we go
> through. There is no short cut in forensics as far as we are
> concerned. ...
>
> We will release [the autopsy result] once it is ready, and hope to
> release it within this week. We are currently waiting for the
> toxicology report, which is an important test to confirm. Once it
> is done, the results will be given to the police as early as we
> can and it is up to the police to release it. We want to get
> correct results before releasing it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's very easy to get the feeling that both sides are hiding things,
and that there's a lot more to come out.

The assassination of Kim Jong-nam has also further strained relations
between China and North Korea, beyond the amount they were already
strained by the long-range ballistic missile test.

Kim Jong-nam had been exiled from North Korea in 2001 after he was
discovered using a phony passport. He's been living in Macau in China
under Chinese protection. On Wednesday, he was at Kuala Lumpur
airport preparing to fly back to Macau. If North Korea performed the
assassination, it would be a new major humiliation to China.

China's state media Global Times published a story on Wednesday saying
that "It is sincerely hoped that [North Korea] will step up and
provide answers to a world that right now can only patiently wait."
That story also criticized North Korea for using assassination at all:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Regardless of how intense a country's political
> struggle might be, there is no doubt that it should never rely on
> assassination methods as means for its advancement. Human
> civilization is now in the 21st century, and such a savage and
> outdated political device should be cast into the museums of
> history."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is an interesting point. Assassination is so old, so savage, so
outdated, so twentieth-century. It's better to use more modern
methods. If China doesn't like someone, they like to use more modern
techniques -- kidnapping, and years of being thrown into a hole and
starved, and receiving daily beatings and torture. For China in the
21st century, that's so much more thoroughly modern and stylish.
AFP and The Star (Malaysia) and Global Times (China)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-nam,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Doan Thi Huong,
Jang Song-thaek, Kang Chol, Datuk Seri Dr S. Subramaniam
Macau

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-19-2017

Boomers only care about their selfish ideals of democratizing the entire planet. They don't care for example about maximizing enemy loss ratios in war compared with american losses like any rational leader would because the boomers want to purge large segments of Gen-X and Gen-Y in order to build their utopia over the course of the 4T and 1T where every country in the world would be a democracy and that there should be no dictatorships or authoritarian governments anywhere. The Boomers know that if the 4T war occurs with Gen-X and Gen-Y at the helm that the resulting war strategy would be based on maximizing enemy losses while minimizing American and allied loses and be based on strategies that have the highest chance of victory along those lines. Boomers also know that such a victory however may not be the result of applying the boomer sacred-cow of "unconditional surrender and/or regime change", and thus almost certainly would not result in a world government in the post-war reorganization.

Boomers also know that practical strategy making under either a boomer leader or under gen-x or younger leadership would results in lower casualties from the younger generations and greater leadership from those generations during the 4T and 1T. Because the boomers do not want the Xers and Millies empowered by the 4T crisis war like the lost and GIs were by the world wars and Korean War but instead plan to use those generations as cannon fodder while boomers exercise complete control because they know that Xers would never agree with the boomer ideal of would government. The boomer then after allow a culling of the young then plan to memorialize the dead wiping crocodile tears while declaring them the "human rights generation" all while consolidating power so that Xers no longer have the numbers to dispute the boomer narrative post-crisis, even with the Gen-Y (millies) and Gen-X (homelander) support.

Boomers care more about their fantasy of would government than they do about the safety of their children. An example now can be seen with the recent North Korean modernization of their nuclear missiles. Boomers are now proposing to add more ABMs even though any competent adversary would simply launch decoy missiles alongside any armed launched nuke rendering the ABMs useless and/or would carry development of stealth equipped nuclear missiles. At no point is the discussion of a counter-buildup of OFFENSIVE NUCLEAR MISSILES in response even considered. Any discussion of building offensive missiles is quickly shot down by the boomer tyrants that run the country; the boomers don't even permit debate on the subject. Another example of boomer tyranny is the government legislative and judicial blocking of domestic measures recently passed by the Executive Branch. Although trump himself is a boomer, he is listening to the young and has authorized roundups of illegal immigrants and refugees yet the Boomer dominated Congress and Courts are blocking reform on "constitutional" pretexts, without regards to how embarrassing this blockage has on the reputation of the US.

In Short Xers and Millies will never allow the regeneracy to be based on the tyranny of Human Rights and Globalism. Death to wilsonianism, Death to globalism.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-19-2017

(02-19-2017, 02:39 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > In Short Xers and Millies will never allow the regeneracy to be
> based on the tyranny of Human Rights and Globalism. Death to
> wilsonianism, Death to globalism.

When Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March occurred, the fatuous
political considerations like the ones you mention were immediately
thrown out the window. That's how the regeneracy worked then, and
that's how it will work this time. A regeneracy event will unite the
country, as it did in 1941-42.

However, on a separate subject, your rant reminded me of something.
You may recall that I posted a list of the names people have called me
a few messages ago. Your posting reminds of one that I left off. A
couple of months ago, someone called me "globalist scum." I had no
idea what that meant, but I suppose it was from someone who agrees
with your rant or something like it.

I was amused this week when CNN's Jake Tapper called Trump "unhinged,"
because someone called me "mentally unhinged" several weeks ago.
While Jake Tapper is on the loony left, the person who called me
mentally unhinged is on the loony right.

Anyway here's an up to date list: I'm a neocon, I'm a Communist, I'm a
Fascist, I'm a libtard, I only read the liberal media, I only read the
conservative media, Soros is paying me, the cia is paying me, the
pentagon is paying me, I'm a Russian troll, I'm a liberal trojan horse
sent to destroy conservatism from within, I'm not even a man, I'm
uneducated, I'm naive, I'm stupid, I've never actually been to
Azerbaijan, I've been coasting entirely off the history I learned in
middle school, I'm fake news, I'm a pathetic propagandist, I'm
irrational, I love Muslims, I hate Muslims, I hate Christians, I'm
tabloid garbage, I'm a mentally unhinged writer, I'm a lunatic, I'm a
scumbad globalist.

All of this name-calling shows how polarized people are, and yet the
regeneracy will unite all of them.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-19-2017

The Boomber dominated government is refusing to allow reform to take place until after the outbreak of the 4T war because if proactive reforms are allowed to take place it would take America away from the boomer globalists' preferred direction of an anti-totalitarian based regeneracy around an eventual world government to be established post-4T war. The government is already governing around these "human rights" dogmas that you and other boomers say the regeneracy would be based on. When in fact we've ALREADY been trying things your way since at least January 1943 (Casablanca conference in which allied war aims were fixed to be unconditional surrender of Germany and Japan). That is the problem; the boomers refuse to even allow discussion of an alternative foreign policy or an alternative military policy much less allow any alternative policy to go to the trial and error phase. The Boomers continue to embrace the "regime change" based options left over from the last 4T uncritically. At no point has boomer historiography even acknowledged the fact that the main battles that ultimately decided the outcome of WW2 occurred in late 1942-early 1943 and that the adoption of unconditional surrender prolonged the war by at least one year maybe even two. The definition of the 4T is that it involves a major shakeup of the fundamental political and economic make up of a country, this can occur either before or during the war phase or both. A 4T war where US policy before the war is based on the human rights tyranny before the war and then is based on the human rights tyranny after the war with policy controlled by the same elites and the soldiers and civilians who fight, die, bleed and sweat, having no influence whatsoever on political decision making is NOT fundamental change in the political order OR advancing a new generation into leadership. The above scenario IS and would be the establishment ramming its preferences down the throats of the citizenry and holding power indefinitely as a Gerontocracy.

Xers and Millies will never permit a war scenario where the 4T war involves a Nomad-led Russia vs a Prophet-Led US, or a Nomad-led China vs a Prophet-Led US. They will only permit a scenario where war with Russia and/or China is avoided and the 4T war is a nomad/hero-Led US vs the Islamic world OR a 4T war involving a Nomad-Led US vs a Prophet-Led China or a Prophet-Led Russia. This is the main reason why Xers and Millies are adamant in their demands that boomers need to retire prior to the 4T war beginning because Xers and Millies despise Bourgeois Neo-Liberalism and globalist Values and would never base society around those values or craft potential 4T war aims around those values.

20-Feb-17 World View -- US-backed Iraqi army launches major new offensive in Mosul - John J. Xenakis - 02-19-2017

*** 20-Feb-17 World View -- US-backed Iraqi army launches major new offensive in western Mosul

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Bombing in Somalia kills 50, said to target Somali-American president
US aircraft carrier renews challenge to China in the South China Sea
US-backed Iraqi army launches major new offensive in western Mosul

****
**** Bombing in Somalia kills 50, said to target Somali-American president
****

[Image: g170219b.jpg]

Aftermath of car bomb attack on market in Mogadishu Somalia on Sunday (Reuters)

A terrorist car bomb exploded in a marketplace in Somalia's capital
city Mogadishu on Sunday, killing 39 and injuring dozens more.

No one has claimed responsibility, but the al-Qaeda linked terror
group al-Shabaab has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks
in Somalia. Although al-Shabaab did not claim responsibility, a
senior al-Shabaab official threatened more attacks targeting any clans
that collaborate with the new president, saying "We will fight against
him during his four-year term."

The new president, who took office on February 8, is Mohamed Abdullahi
Mohamed — nicknamed Farmajo. Farmajo holds a dual Somali-American
citizenship. In 1988, as a Somali government employee working in the
Somali embassy in Washington, he feared for his life after criticizing
the Somali government, and applied for asylum in the U.S. Since then,
he earned several college degrees and settled in Buffalo, NY, as a
civil servant in the New York Department of Transportation.

His ambition was to return to Somalia and help bring peace to the
violent country. After meeting with and impressing Somalia's
president in 2010, he became prime minister of Somalia. His fight
against both al-Shabaab and corruption made him very popular in his
home country. Five years later he ran for president, winning a
surprise victory, and took office two weeks ago, on February 8.

Beyond terror attacks, Farmajo will have to deal with many other
severe problems facing Somalia. Somalia's clans have been fighting in
a civil war since 1991, and a severe drought puts the country at risk
of famine.

Farmajo's popularity, his American dual citizenship, and his education
in American values and governance apparently have made him a huge
threat to al-Shabaab, and we can apparently expect more terror attacks
targeting people and clans cooperating with Farmajo. AFP and VOA and Politico

Related Articles

****
**** US aircraft carrier renews challenge to China in the South China Sea
****

In a new challenge to China's illegal construction of artificial
islands and military bases in the South China Sea, the aircraft
carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and the Carl Vinson Strike Group
entered the South China Sea on Sunday to perform "routine" freedom of
navigation operations (FONOPs).

As in previous operations, the Carl Vinson will simply transit the
South China Sea, establishing the right of all nations to do the same,
and especially for commercial ships to do so freely. Chinese media
claim, without providing a reason, that these freedom of navigation
operations are a military threat to China.

These operations have been going on for years, but there's a question
about whether there will be a change in policy under the
administration of president Donald Trump. The issue is how close the
Carl Vinson will navigate to China's artificial islands and military
bases. In the Obama administration, the American ships stayed at
least 12 nautical miles from any of China's artificial islands. There
is some speculation that, in the Trump administration, the American
ships will travel closer than 12 nautical miles. This would be fully
justified under international law, since the artificial islands are
illegal, but it would infuriate the Chinese, and possibly trigger some
kind of military confrontation. VOA and Navy Times (12-Feb) and Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

****
**** US-backed Iraqi army launches major new offensive in western Mosul
****

Iraq's army, backed by American-led coalition warplanes, launched a
major new military offensive on Sunday with the objective of
recapturing western Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS
or ISIL or Daesh).

Iraq had hoped to recapture the entire city by the end of 2016, but
only recaptured the eastern portion last month.

Analysts are giving several reasons why recapturing western Mosul is
going to proceed very slowly:

There are 750,000 civilians in western Mosul, and the Iraq
army will receive a great deal of international criticism if civilians
are not protected. The contrast is to the recapture of Aleppo in
Syria by Syria's army, where civilians, including women and children,
were specifically targeted by both Syrian and Russian warplanes with
barrel bombs containing chemical weapons.
ISIS has been preparing for this battle for months, and has built
a network of tunnels, and has booby trapped buildings and roads with
bombs in order to slow the advance of Iraqi forces.
ISIS has already been driven out of a number of Iraqi cities, and
western Mosul is the last ISIS stronghold in Iraq. They are expected
to fight ferociously to prevent recapture.

Humanitarian agencies are gearing up to aid 250,000 to 400,000
civilians who may flee because of the fighting. AP

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Somalia, Mogadishu, al-Shabaab,
Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Farmajo,
China, USS Carl Vinson, South China Sea,
Iraq, Mosul

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-20-2017

It makes no difference whatsoever. When the Regeneracy occurs, the
public will unite behind the leader, whether he's weak or strong.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-20-2017

(02-20-2017, 05:33 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It makes no difference whatsoever. When the Regeneracy occurs, the
public will unite behind the leader, whether he's weak or strong.

What I was saying is not that there would not be unification with the regeneracy. But that the regeneracy would not be based around neo-liberalism and globalism and that a pro-globalist government would be in power at the time of the regeneracy. Your belief in globalism and democracy, which by the ways seems to be universal among Boomers is regarded as peculiar by Xers and Millies. Xers and Millies despise human rights and liberal democracy. To emphasize that point is why I posted those lists, especially the second list consisting of 20th century leaders. It is not the Decisive acts themselves or the toughness itself that is admired by us Xers and Millies but the motivation behind those leaders activities that is admired.

21-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan artillery pounds terrorist 'safe havens' in Afghan - John J. Xenakis - 02-20-2017

*** 21-Feb-17 World View -- Pakistan artillery pounds terrorist 'safe havens' in Afghanistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Pakistan blames Afghanistan after a week of multiple terror attacks
Pakistan army pounds militant hideouts in Afghanistan

****
**** Pakistan blames Afghanistan after a week of multiple terror attacks
****

[Image: g170220b.jpg]

People and trucks wait for the Pak-Afghan border to be reopened, as Pakistan's army moves heavy artillery to the border

The number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan had been falling in 2015
and 2016, compared to previous years, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
had promised that the year 2017 would be a further improvement.
That's why a new surge in terror attacks in Pakistan has shocked the
nation and is a personal embarrassment to Sharif.

Six terror attacks occurred in the space of four days:

Lahore: 13 killed, Feb 13: Suicide attacker targets police at
rally. Claim: Taliban-linked Jamaat-ul-Ahrar
Quetta: 2 killed, Feb 14: Police killed trying to defuse bomb.
Claim: Lashkar-e-Jhangvi Al Alami faction
Peshawar: 1 killed, Feb 15: Suicide bomber targets government
employees. Claim: Pakistani Taliban Tehreek e-Taliban
Mohmand: 5 killed,, Feb 15: Suicide bombers target government
office. Claim: Taliban-linked Jamaat-ul-Ahrar
Sehwan: 88 killed, Feb 16: Suicide bomber targets Sufi shrine.
Claim: Taliban-linked Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, ISIS
Awaran: 3 killed, Feb 16: Soldiers killed as IED hits military
convoy. Claim: Baloch Liberation Front

There were other terrorist attacks earlier in the year, including a
bomb in a vegetable market in Pakistan's tribal region on January 21,
kill 25 civilians and injuring 87 more.

In 2014, Pakistan's military launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb,
which attacked Taliban militants hiding in the tribal region
(FATA) between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistani government
officials have credited Zarb-e-Azb as the reason why terror
attacks in Pakistan fell in 2015 and 2016.

On February 13 of this year, the day of the terror attack in Lahore,
Pakistan's UN ambassador Maleeha Lodhi told the UN Security Council:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This comprehensive approach [Operation Zarb-e-Azb]
> has succeeded in expelling terrorist organizations from our
> territory and greatly constrained their ability to carry out
> lethal attacks, as evident from the dramatic decline in the number
> of such attacks, despite the cowardly attack in
> Lahore."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There's a certain irony to this claim: As the number of terror attacks
in Pakistan declined in 2015, the number in Afghanistan increased.
The two figures may well be linked, because Operation Zarb-e-Azb
caused thousands of Pakistani Taliban militants hiding out in the FATA
to flee across the border into Afghanistan, where they could have
linked up with the Afghan Taliban.

The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2015 had special
geopolitical significance, because the resurgent Taliban forced
President Barack Obama to reverse his promise to withdraw all American
troops from Afghanistan. BBC and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles

****
**** Pakistan army pounds militant hideouts in Afghanistan
****

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are rising sharply
as Pakistan is essentially blaming Afghanistan for the recent
surge in terror attacks. Pakistan's army is taking these steps
following Thursday's terror attack on the Sufi shrine in Sehwan:

Pakistan has closed the border with Afghanistan, blocking all
traffic. Tens of thousands of civilians use the crossings every day
to get to jobs on the other side of the border. Hundreds of trucks
cross the border every day, many carrying fruit and other perishable
products. The border has now been close for five days, creating a
chaotic situation, with hundreds of businesses forced to close.
Pakistani authorities issued shoot-on-sight orders for anyone
attempting to cross illegally from Afghanistan to Pakistan.
Hundreds of Afghan citizens in Pakistan have been arrested.
Pakistan's army lobbied hundreds of missiles into Afghanistan,
targeting suspected Taliban camps and hideouts on the other side of
the border in Afghanistan. Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of killing
civilians.
On Monday, Pakistan began moving heavy artillery and other
military equipment up to the Afghan border, in preparation for further
unspecified military operations targeting militants hiding out in
Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's Foreign Ministry in Kabul summoned Pakistan's ambassador
to protest the border shelling.

Pakistan's military chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, said on Monday
that the army was fighting the "common enemy" of terrorism in Pakistan
and Afghanistan, and he called "for more effective border coordination
and cooperation" to prevent cross-border movement of terrorists.

Last week, Pakistan handed over to Afghanistan a list of 76
fugitive militants hiding in Afghanistan, and demanded that
immediate action be taken against them.

On Monday, Afghanistan handed over to Pakistan a list of 32 training
centers and 85 militant leaders involved in terrorist attacks in
Afghanistan, and demanded that immediate action be taken against them.

There have been similar lists in the past, and little or no action has
been taken on either side. Whether this time will be different
remains to be seen.

Dawn (Pakistan) and
Pak Observer and Tolo News (Afghanistan) and VOA

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Lahore, Quetta,
Peshawar, Sehwan, Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Maleeha Lodhi,
Pakistan Taliban, Afghan Taliban, Qamar Javed Bajwa

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: 18-Feb-17 World View -- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' - SomeGuy - 02-21-2017

Ireland was partitioned in 1921. That's less than 1 century, much less centur[ies]. Rolleyes

RE: 18-Feb-17 World View -- Britain's Tony Blair calls for the people 'to rise up' - John J. Xenakis - 02-21-2017

(02-21-2017, 01:59 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Pre and post-Brexit, Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic have
> not been for centuries, and continue to not be, the same
> country. There has always been a real border. Even when the UK was
> sort of part of the EU, they did not use the Euro, and you still
> had to show a passport when entering the UK from continental
> Europe and Ireland. Of course, UK citizens got to go through the
> green lane when arriving thus, whereas as an American, I had to go
> through the normal lane.

If that's true, then what do you think Enda Kenny meant?

Also, the UK is sort of part of the EU TODAY. In fact, it actually IS
a part of the EU today, just like Switzerland, which also doesn't use
the euro.

22-Feb-17 World View -- China clamps down on Uighurs in Xinjiang province - John J. Xenakis - 02-21-2017

*** 22-Feb-17 World View -- China clamps down on Uighurs in Xinjiang province

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China commands Xinjiang Uighurs to install tracking devices in all cars
China stages massive show of military force in Xinjiang

****
**** China commands Xinjiang Uighurs to install tracking devices in all cars
****

[Image: g170221b.jpg]

Thousands of armed police, public security officers and militia fight terrorism in the city of Hotan in Xinjiang province last week on Thursday (Global Times)

Officials in northwest China's province of Xinjiang on Tuesday ordered
that all car owners install devices that will permit authorities to
track the cars at all times. The cars will be tracked by means of the
Beidou Navigation Satellite System, which is China's homegrown system
to reduce reliance on the US global positioning system (GPS).

The devices will have to be installed by June 30. After that date,
owners will be unable to purchase petrol for their cars. Installation
of the devices is free, though the owners will be charged for the
devices' internet access that continually reports the car's position
to the Chinese authorities.

According to a Chinese official explaining the demand, possibly making
a little joke:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"All vehicles must install the system, so that they
> can be tracked wherever they go. It also helps car owners to find
> their cars quickly if it's been stolen or taken [by
> terrorists]."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This is only the latest in a series of seemingly desperate attempts by
China's authorities to bring the region's ethnic Uighurs under
control.

The Uighurs are a Turkic ethnic group who are almost all Sunni
Muslims. Since 1949, when China crushed the short-lived state of East
Turkestan, China has been promoting large-scale immigration of Han
Chinese from other parts of China into Xinjiang province. In
addition, Chinese authorities have marginalized the Uighurs, giving
the best homes and jobs to the Han Chinese. Today, the Uighurs make
up about 45% of Xinjiang's population, while 40% are Han Chinese.

This forced massive migration of Han Chinese into their cities,
marginalizing the Uighurs in their own homeland, has infuriated the
Uighurs, and has led to a jihadist separatist movement.

In July, 2009, thousands of Uighurs rioted and demonstrated against
Chinese rule. The riots were triggered when two Uighur migrant
workers, working in a toy factory in southeast China, were accused of
raping a Han woman, a charge which appears to have been fabricated.
The two Uighurs were killed in a Han Chinese mob attack on their
dormitory. In Xinjiang, Chinese officials Chinese officials accused
the Uighurs of attacking Han Chinese in their home, and struck back
against the Uighurs brutally. Shanghaist and BBC and
Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

****
**** China stages massive show of military force in Xinjiang
****

In a massive show of military force, thousands of black clad, heavily
armed troops have paraded through cities in Xinjiang province. On
Saturday, hundreds of troops staged a mass "anti-terror rally" in
Urumqi, the capital city of Xinjiang.

Zhu Hailun, the region’s deputy Communist party chief, promised an
unflinching campaign against the Islamic terrorists and separatists:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We shall load our guns, draw our swords from their
> sheaths, throw hard punches and relentlessly beat, and strike hard
> without flinching at terrorists who must be brought down a peg or
> two.
>
> With the caring and strong leadership of the Communist Party
> Central Committee, where President Xi Jinping serves as the core ...
> the strong support of 23 million people from all ethnic groups in
> Xinjiang, and with the powerful fist of the People’s Democratic
> Dictatorship, all separatist activities and all terrorists shall
> be smashed to pieces."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

On Thursday of last week, a similar military parade was held in the
city of Kashgar. A special forces operative said, "We are ready for
[combat] and we definitely will win."

This massive show of force, as well as the demand to install tracking
devices in all cars, follows two terror attacks in Xinjiang in recent
weeks. Two weeks ago, three militants attacked Han Chinese with
machetes, killing five and injuring five more, before they were shot
by police. In December, five people were killed when attackers drove
a vehicle into a government building.

It's possible that the terror attacks were triggered by
a program by China's government in the last three months of 2016
to destroy thousands of mosques in Xinjiang under the pretense
of protecting the public from unsafe buildings. One police
officer was quoted as saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Convincing the people that one of the purposes for
> demolishing the mosques was for the safety of the worshipers was a
> bit difficult. Some of them laughed at us when we explained the
> purpose, and some of them stared at us to show their
> disagreement."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Government officials in Kashgar confirmed that 70% of the mosques that
city were demolished. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Guardian (London) and Radio Free Asia (19-Dec-2016)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xinjiang, Hotan, Urumqi, Kashgar,
Beidou Navigation Satellite System, Zhu Hailun

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe