Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - Ragnarök_62 - 04-06-2017 (04-06-2017, 07:41 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-05-2017, 11:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Well, well, a whole cabal of war mongers seems to be there. So, OK, here's said Metallica I listened to before Doris Day. - A song for our era, man. RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - John J. Xenakis - 04-07-2017 There are several problems with your Metallica song. First, it doesn't sound like a song. It sounds a noisy war zone, which is probably what it's meant to sound like, but it doesn't sound like a song. Second, even though it pretends to be a "hate war" song, everyone knows that it's really a "hate Boomer" song. If you're into anti-war songs, there are a lot of really nice ones from the 60s. First, they're really songs. And second, they really are anti-war songs. Here's a sample list: Blowing in the Wind This Land is Your Land, This Land is My Land If I Had A Hammer Give Peace A Chance People Got To Be Free The Times They Are a Changing Turn, Turn, Turn Where Have All The Flowers Gone? Tie A Yellow Ribbon ('round the Old Oak Tree) I'd Like To Teach The World To Sing RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - Ragnarök_62 - 04-07-2017 (04-07-2017, 01:32 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There are several problems with your Metallica song. First, it Music is just a matter of taste. IOW, it's a subjective matter. I see you have a list of 2T era songs. You forgot one. I like War Pigs - Black Sabbath. Btw, I see no anti Boom stuff wrt Metallica. Here's another sample for you. Iron Maiden 2 Minutes to Midnight lyrics Wrote:Kill for gain or shoot to maim I like lyrics that just cut to the chase. Hell, I can even do a poem. On foreign oil, does the US feast So, let the weapons fly in the Mideast. The US military goes to shed blood. Their graves shall be nothing but mud. So, place the bet. And take a chance that doom shall be met. The Pentagram always says vital US interests are at stake. The wise amongst us know it's a long term mistake. Just watch the flying flak. And await the coming of the blow-back. ... The future landscape of the Mideast, man. 8-Apr-17 World View -- Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with - John J. Xenakis - 04-07-2017 *** 8-Apr-17 World View -- Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Japan to repopulate 148 remote islands, as confrontation with China looms **** The Senkaku Islands are thought to be in the midst of vast gas and oil resources (Reuters) Japan's government has announced plans to repopulate a cluster of 148 small, rocky islands in the hope of deterring China from unilaterally declaring that they're China's sovereign territory, as it has done illegally in the South China Sea. Among these are the Senkaku Islands, which have been the focus military near-confrontations in the past few years. The population of the remote islands has declined by 51.3% since 1955, and restoring even small population on 71 of the outlying islands could deter China. There are around 6,800 islands in the archipelago, and The announcement calls for the construction of civic facilities, the purchasing of land, the improvement of ports and stopping foreign vessels from illegally visiting the islands. The greatest focus has been on the Senkaku Islands, – a chain of five uninhabited islets and three barren rocks in the East China Sea – were uninhabited until 1895 when Japan laid claim to them. In the ensuing decades, the Japanese populated the chain and even set up a fish-processing plant on one of the islands. The United States took control of the islands during the occupation of Japan following World War II, and handed them back in 1972. At that time, China claimed the islands, citing ancient texts and maps, and claiming that Japan's actions in 1895 were illegal. In early February, three Chinese warships sailed into the water near the Senkaku Islands, risking a military confrontation and stoking tensions between the two countries. Even riskier is the increased intrusion into Japanese airspace of Chinese military aircraft, usually other fighter jets, sometimes a bomber or reconnaissance plane. The number of such intrusions is now averaging two per day since April of last year, nearly twice as many as in the prior 12 months. Japan responds to each such intrusion by scrambling up to four F-15 fighter jets to intercept the Chinese military aircraft. Analysts are concerned that the situation in the East China Sea is becoming more and more volatile, more so than even in the South China Sea, where China has illegally built artificial islands nad military bases, and that a war in the East China Sea could break out at any time. The populations of Japan and China have become highly nationalistic over their respective claims to these islands, in this generational Crisis era. The frequency of these intrusions by both warships and warplanes and the resulting intercepts raise the possibility of an accident or miscalculation that could spiral into something bigger. Japan Times and CNBC and Fox News and American Interest Related Articles
**** **** Taiwan and Japan try to settle their disputes peacefully **** Last week, a report from a nationalist Japanese media source accused Taiwan to sending a record high number of scientific research vessels to "intrude" into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by Taiwan as well as by China and Japan. The report suggested that Taiwan's "unauthorized activities" included fishing in addition to illegal maritime research. If this kind of dispute had arisen between China and Japan, there might have been a military confrontation by now. But Taiwan and Japan, who presumably want to cooperate because of their common enemy (China), have a history of settling these kinds of disputes peacefully in recent years. In April 2013, Taiwan and Japan signed a fisheries agreement to address a decades-long dispute over fishing in contested waters in the East China Sea. On October 31 of last year, the two sides agreed to meet at least once a year and to establish two working groups — one on fishery cooperation and another regarding cooperation in scientific research. China Post (Taiwan) and Japan Times and The Diplomat Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Senkaku, Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, East China Sea, South China Sea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - John J. Xenakis - 04-07-2017 (04-07-2017, 04:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Here's another sample for you. Iron Maiden Those lyrics are really awful. And once again, this isn't an anti-war song. It's nothing but a political campaign ad that hits you over the head with a baseball bat. You don't need a baseball bat to make a point. Sometimes sublety does a better job. This time, let's pick a pure anti-war song without a baseball bat: Peter, Paul and Mary - Where Have All The Flowers Gone ? Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing? Where have all the flowers gone, long time ago? Where have all the flowers gone? Young girls have picked them everyone. Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? Where have all the young girls gone, long time passing? Where have all the young girls gone, long time ago? Where have all the young girls gone? Gone for husbands everyone. Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? Where have all the husbands gone, long time passing? Where have all the husbands gone, long time ago? Where have all the husbands gone? Gone for soldiers everyone Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? Where have all the soldiers gone, long time passing? Where have all the soldiers gone, long time ago? Where have all the soldiers gone? Gone to graveyards, everyone. Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? Where have all the graveyards gone, long time passing? Where have all the graveyards gone, long time ago? Where have all the graveyards gone? Gone to flowers, everyone. Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing? Where have all the flowers gone, long time ago? Where have all the flowers gone? Young girls have picked them everyone. Oh, when will they ever learn? Oh, when will they ever learn? RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - Ragnarök_62 - 04-08-2017 (04-07-2017, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-07-2017, 04:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Here's another sample for you. Iron Maiden RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - John J. Xenakis - 04-08-2017 (04-08-2017, 01:42 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > One can equally construe that the theme of the stanza "where have That's very interesting, and maybe you've captured the whole concept. Metallica is saying that "Our parents are evil," while Peter Paul and Mary are saying that "Our parents are stupid." RE: 6-Apr-17 World View -- President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific - John J. Xenakis - 04-08-2017 While we're at it, here's the most famous anti-war poem from World War I: In Flanders Fields By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918) Canadian Army IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow Between the crosses row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, fly Scarce heard amid the guns below. We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields. 9-Apr-17 World View -- Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'wor - John J. Xenakis - 04-08-2017 *** 9-Apr-17 World View -- Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role **** German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, 'This attack by the United States of America is understandable, given the aspect of the war crimes, given the suffering of innocent people and given the logjam in the UN Security Council.' The events of the past week were not only a major humiliation to Russia, but will also have to trigger a major strategic change in Russia's foreign policy. The unexpected US cruise missile strike in response to the horrific Sarin gas attack by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people, left Russia scrambling to take face-saving measures. So Russia canceled its "deconfliction agreement" with US designed to prevent accidental clashes between the two air forces in Syria, though this agreement will almost certainly be restored within weeks. War criminal al-Assad did his part by ordering new air strikes on the same town, Khan Sheikhoun, but this with conventional weapons. However, to bring the point home, al-Assad committed a new war when his missiles struck a hospital where people are recovering from al-Assad's Sarin gas attack. Russia, Syria and Iran may take further retaliatory moves. However, the big picture is that this week's events will require a strategic change in Russia's policies. As I reported in April, 2011, Russia at that time adopted a policy of using the United Nations Security Council to cripple Nato and US foreign policy, a strategy that has been very successful for them for six years. Early in 2011, Russia had abstained on the UNSC resolution authorizing a "humanitarian" military action in Libya. As the Libyan intervention unfolded, Russia viewed the increasingly complex situation as "mission creep," and regretted not vetoing the resolution. After that, Russia demanded that Nato and the US strictly limit their activities, and Russia would back up this demand by vetoing any attempt to go further than Russia desired. This would allow Russia to effectively control many activities of Nato and the US, since only activities approved by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be permitted. This set up a "double standard," because Russia would do what it wanted, without seeking approval from the UNSC. Russia invaded Georgia and took control of two provinces, without asking the UNSC. Russia invaded East Ukraine and took control of two provinces, without asking the UNSC. Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it, without asking the UNSC. At the same time, any military action by the West would have to be approved by the UNSC. Now President Trump has done the same thing, ordering a military strike without asking the UNSC. This act nullifies the policies adopted by Russia in 2011, and requires a change in direction, though the nature of that change remains to be seen. AP and CNBC and CNN Related Articles
**** **** President Trump reinstates the 'Truman Doctrine' **** Russia now has to throw out that "double standard" strategy, because the new US administration is willing to do what Russia has been doing all along-- take military action when considered necessary, without asking permission from the UN Security Council (nor, by the way, from the US Congress). President Donald Trump seems willing to reinstate the "Truman Doctrine" that had been repudiated by President Obama. President Harry Truman announced the Truman Doctrine in 1947, essentially making America the "policeman of the world." Truman's justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. The Truman Doctrine was reaffirmed in President John Kennedy's "ask not" speech, and every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman. The concept of America being the "world's policeman" was very controversial in 1947 and it's very controversial today. And yet, we've seen what's happened in the last eight years, when the world had no policeman. There are news reports of a power struggle in the White House, and that power struggle can be interpreted as a disagreement over reinstating the Truman Doctrine. Reportedly, Steve Bannon opposes military actions like the one this week in Syria, while Jared Kushner favors it. The outcome of this power struggle, which goes to the heart of the Truman Doctrine concepts, could have a defining effect on American foreign policy, as well as on Russia's foreign policy. Guardian (London) Related Articles
**** **** Shock and euphoria follow the missile strike on Syria **** America's missile strike in Syria has received widespread praise as a valid response to Bashar al-Assad's war crimes, but not with President Trump's base. I saw this myself in the stream of comments to the Breitbart version of my April 6 article "President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians." Most of the comments appeared from people among Trump's strongest supporters, but they were shocked by this article, because they believed that Trump would never order a military intervention in the Mideast, something that many of them oppose. A lot of anger was directed at me, accusing me of "fake news," and accusing me of being a "Libtard" and trying to mislead people. But all that changed on Thursday evening around 10 PM ET, when reports of the military action started coming out, proving that the article was completely accurate. At that point, the anger that many of the commenters had directed at me began to be directed at President Trump. Some of the comments were completely delusional, such as describing the Sarin gas attack as a "false flag" operation, sometimes going so far as to accuse Trump of ordering the Sarin attack himself in order to have an excuse to bomb Syria. Probably the angriest comments were some variation of the delusional "false flag" claim. At the other end of the spectrum were comments that were very thoughtful. Many people posted variations of "I voted for Trump, but I didn't vote for this." There were some detailed analyses of why we should never go into the Mideast, saying that we've tried in the past and never accomplished anything, and one person saying that we should let them kill each other so that they won't try to kill us. However, in the mainstream media, in the US, Europe and the Mideast, comments by world leaders have been extremely supportive, almost verging on euphoria that the US is showing leadership once more. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both the controversy and the euphoria are to be expected at a military attack that could begin an all-out war. Any military attack is going to be controversial, but the population can also easily become heavily invested and become euphoric. Here's how historian Wolfgang Schivelbusch describes how the euphoria at the beginning of a war is itself highly delusional in his 2001 book, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning, and Recovery: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The passions excited in the national psyche by the > onset of war show how deeply invested the masses now were in its > potential outcome. Propaganda had reinforced their conviction that > "everything was at stake," and the threat of death and defeat > functioned like a tightly coiled spring, further heightening the > tension. The almost festive jubilation that accompanied the > declarations of war in Charleston in 1861 [American Civil War], > Paris in 1870 [Franco-Prussian war], and the capitals of the major > European powers in 1914 [World War I] were anticipatory > celebrations of victory -- since nations are as incapable of > imagining their own defeat as individuals are of conceiving their > own death. The new desire to humiliate the enemy, noted by > Burckhardt, was merely a reaction to the unprecedented posturing > in which nations now engaged when declaring war. > > The deployment of armies on the battlefield is the classic > manifestation of collective self-confidence. If both sides are not > convinced of their military superiority, there will be no > confrontation; rather, those who lack confidence will simply flee > the field. Accordingly, the battle is decided the moment the > confidence of one side fails. The will to fight ("morale") > evaporates, the military formation collapses, and the army seeks > salvation in flight or, if it is lucky, in organized retreat. The > Greek term for this point in space (on the battlefield) and time > (the course of the battle) was trope. The victors demarcated the > spot with the weapons of the vanquished and later with monuments, > yielding the term tropaion, from which we get our word trophy." > (p. 6-7)<END QUOTE>[/indent] The euphoria goes on until something goes wrong, usually some kind of military disaster, such as the Battle of Bull Run in 1861 or the Bataan Death March in 1941. The panicked reaction can be much greater when a military disaster occurs. In his 1832 book, On War, General Carl von Clausewitz describes what happens: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The effect of defeat outside the army -- on the > people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the > wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence. > The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that > vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to > total paralysis. It's a blow to the whole nervous system of the > losing side, as if caused by an electric charge. This effect may > appear to a greater or lesser degree, but it's never completely > missing. Then, instead of rushing to repair the misfortune with a > spirit of determination, everyone fears that his efforts will be > futile; or he does nothing, leaving everything to > Fate."<END QUOTE>[/indent] From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events that cause this "sudden collapse" and "total destruction" of self-confidence are called "regeneracy events," because they regenerate civic unity for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war. You don't need any particular methodology to understand that the whole world has become increasingly unstable in the last ten years. Because the political atmosphere is already extremely vitriolic and is likely to worsen further, it's worth repeating what I've written many times: Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100% certainty, irrespective of who is president. Furthermore, the president can neither cause nor prevent this outcome. Maybe Trump's missile attack will speed up this war, or maybe it will delay it. It could go either way. If Hillary Clinton had won, she might have made the same missile attack for the same reasons that Trump did. It's impossible to tell. The only thing that we can be sure of is that we have no way of knowing what the scenario will be, only that a regional war will be the result, in this generational Crisis era. CNN and philly.com Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Germany, Angela Merkel, UN Security Council, Harry Truman, Truman Doctrine, John F Kennedy, Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, Battle of Bull Run, Bataan Death March, Wolfgang Schivelbusch, Carl von Clausewitz Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 10-Apr-17 World View -- US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula - John J. Xenakis - 04-09-2017 *** 10-Apr-17 World View -- US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings **** Church bombing in Tanta, Egypt, on Sunday Coordinated bombing attacks on two different Coptic Orthodox Christian churches in two different cities in Egypt killed at least 45 people and injured over 100. Both churches were crowded with worshippers at the Palm Sunday service. Palm Sunday falls each year one week before Easter, which this year occurs on April 16 for both Western and Orthodox Christians. Palm Sunday is one of the holiest days in the Christian calendar, marking the triumphal entry of Jesus Christ into Jerusalem. The Sinai terror group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem) took credit for the both bombings. The group changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ABM has taken credit for the December 11, 2016, bombing of the St Peter and St Paul chapel adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo, killing 29, and promised to attack more Christian targets. Coptic Christians make up about 10% of Egypt's population. Egypt’s President Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in Egypt for three months. The measure allows authorities to make arrests without warrants and search people's homes. Human rights organizations have expressed concern that the state of emergency will permit al-Sisi to take on additional dictatorial powers, and will abuse those powers. The dictator Hosni Mubarak imposed a similar state of emergency for 20 years, before being ousted in 2011 by the "Arab Spring." Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and Al Jazeera Related Articles
**** **** US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula **** Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force in March (AFP) The US Pacific Command announced on Saturday that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force has left Singapore and is headed for the Korean peninsula. It was diverted from previous plans for carrier exercises and port visits in Australia. This action takes on special significance because it appears to be similar to the action taken last week in the Mediterranean Sea just before the US Navy launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack targets in Syria, following the Syrian regime's use of Sarin gas, a forbidden WMD (weapon of mass destruction). North Korea has been testing ballistic missile systems and nuclear weapons, a WMD forbidden to North Korea by UN Security Council resolutions. Experts warn that North Korea is getting closer to deploying a nuclear-tipped rocket capable of reaching the United States mainland, as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and China. Thus there is speculation, completely unconfirmed, that President Donald Trump might order a missile strike on North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons development facilities, in order to at least delay further development. According to one military analyst: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It's a well-timed move. We obviously don't have the > ability to strike their nuclear facilities, they are buried deep > underground, but we can go after the missiles themselves while > they are fueling. It's a signal to the North Koreans that we will, > for the time being, have the ability to attack those > facilities."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The Carl Vinson Strike Group has massive striking power and has the capability to intercept ballistic missiles. The group includes the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 2, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112), and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain (CG 57). President Trump has been pressuring China to try to force North Korea to give up its nuclear and ballistic missile development program, and has recently said that "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will." When Trump met last week with China's president Xi Jinping, North Korea was a major topic of discussion between the two leaders, but reports indicate that that no agreement was reached on how to end the threat from North Korea. Instead, there was nothing but posturing and impossible demands. Trump demands that China prevent North Korea's further missile and nuclear development. China has agreed to implement the sanctions demanded by the UN Security Council, and most recently says that it has stopped importing coal from North Korea. However, there are some reports that North Korea is looking for other markets in which to sell its coal, and Russia may be one of them. At any rate, there really is nothing realistic that China can do, short of military action, to stop North Korea's missile and nuclear development. China demands that the US agree to a "dual suspension" on the Korean peninsula, cancelling its joint military drills with South Korea in return for a moratorium on North Korean testing, and then promising to negotiate a peace treaty with North Korea. The US has repeatedly been duped by North Korea when entering such agreements, and there is no chance that Trump will allow the US to be duped again. So China's demands are also completely unrealistic. So this brings us to the obvious question: Why is the Carl Vinson strike group heading for the Korean peninsula, and what has it been ordered to do when it gets there? Is it just going to sit there and wait for something to happen, and leave in a few weeks having accomplished nothing, allowing North Korea to continue developing nuclear-tipped rockets capable of hitting the US mainland? Or is some military action planned, with the intention of fulfilling Trump's promise, "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will"? One way or another, we'll probably have an answer within a few days. Navy Times and News Corp (Australia) and BBC and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) Related Articles **** **** South Korean anxiety over North Korea and anger at China grow over THAAD deployment **** The US has begun deployment in South Korea of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) an advanced anti-missile system that can blast incoming missiles out of the sky. The stated purpose of the deployment would be to protect South Korea from a North Korean ballistic missile attack. However, China has expressed increasing fury because the system has advanced radar capabilities that would provide early warning for a Chinese missile attack on the United States. China's fury has taken the form of economic sanctions. China has banned tour groups from visiting China, has removed popular South Korean TV dramas from the internet, and has forced the closure of 75 South Korean Lotte stores in China, resulting in $179 million in losses. A web site reader living in Seoul has written to me to describe the devastating impact of the actions by China and North Korea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"China's economic boycott of Korea over THAAD has hit > the country like a ton bricks. I went to the flagship Lotte > department store today, and it was practically empty. I have > friends who own their own businesses, and they tell me they are > facing bankruptcy because of the loss of Chinese customers. The > thing is, Koreans, by and large, hate the Chinese. This embargo is > only heightening the hatred. I think this embargo has finally > woken people up to the fact that China is an existential threat to > Korea. ... > > Tonight, for the first time in my life, Koreans told me they were > afraid that war was imminent. I have lived in Asia (on and off) > since the 1970s, and I have never heard a Korean say anything like > that. Tonight, someone in my office told me that she was scheduled > to to visit America in May, but that she was afraid a war would > break out before she had a chance to leave. Leaving the office > tonight, a co-worker told me she was scared. I was stunned. This > can't bode well. > > If this is the end, oh well. I just hope I die instantly. I'm > worried I won't be killed in the first artillery barrage. As > densely packed as Seoul is, the death toll, the carnage, will be > beyond belief. ... > > I can't believe how much the mood here has flipped. The word > 'changed' would be inappropriate. Things are different now. I feel > sick."<END QUOTE>[/indent] I guess we can all hope that if we have to die that we die instantly. This is an appropriate time to repeat what I've written many times in the past. A lot of people believe some variation of "X and Y won't go to war, because it's bad for business." Actually, the opposite is true, as we're seeing in the case of Lotte. If two countries have a business relationship, then the business relationship won't prevent war, but instead will turn into one more weapon of war. CBS News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, North Sinai, Coptic Christians, Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Egypt, chapel of St Peter and St Paul, El-Botroseya, Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, North Korea, South Korea, China, Xi Jinping, Japan, Australia, US Pacific Command, Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Lotte Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 11-Apr-17 World View -- India forced to delay Kashmir elections after violence - John J. Xenakis - 04-10-2017 *** 11-Apr-17 World View -- India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** India forced to delay Kashmir elections after large surge in violence **** A burned out bus following an attack by separatists on Sunday (PTI) India has been forced to delay a second round of elections in Kashmir, scheduled for Wednesday, after the first round of elections in Sunday sparked a large surge on Sunday by separatists. The large surge in violence left eight people dead and injured more than 100. Two middle schools, designated as polling stations, were burnt down on Sunday night. Separatists had called for a boycott of the election, and in the city Srinagar were using barbed wire and burnt tires to block the roads, to prevent voters from reaching the polling stations. Hundreds of youth threw stones and petrol bombs at security forces, who wore helmets and carried batons to subdue the protesters. However, the security forces were forced to withdraw, after the boycott was almost total. Government sources counted nearly 200 separate incidents of violence. Although there have been periods of violence in Indian-controlled Kashmir in the past, the new round of violence is significantly different according to several measures:
The low voter turnout is particularly significant. In previous elections, even when there was some violence, voter turnout was 25-40%, and that was considered to be a sign that, despite the separatist protests, most people supported the government. The low voter turnout is a major change that is being blamed on the Election Commission (EC), which finally was forced to reschedule the second round of elections from Wednesday to May 25, handing a victory to the separatists. As I wrote in my detailed analysis earlier in the month, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. The survivors of a generational crisis war are so traumatized that they spend their lives doing everything possible to keep it from happening again. However, younger generations growing up after the war have no such concerns, and when the generations of survivors retire and die, then a new generational crisis war emerges among the younger generations. The surging violence in Kashmir is extremely dangerous, and spread and spiral into something much larger during the hot summer. BBC and New Delhi TV and First Post and India Times Related Articles
**** **** Hindu activists push for ban on cow slaughter across India **** It's an old saying that Hindus and Muslims can't live together because Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows. These differences, which seem so odd to the Western mind, raise such powerful emotions in both Muslims and Hindus that they played an important role in both of the previous generational crisis wars, the 1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition War. Now there's a new demand by Hindu nationalists to ban cow slaughter across the country. Cow vigilantism has frequently triggered violence between Hindus and Muslims in India, especially when Muslims kill cows for meat, and preventing Muslims from eating beef appears to a major part of the motivation for the proposed ban on cow slaughter. However, opponents of the ban say that a ban on cow slaughter would be bad for the cow, and that the end result is that cows would no longer exist except in zoos. For that reason, opponents are demanding that if the proposed ban is passed, then the government must budget money to give to dairy farmers to protect the cow, and must provide an adoption scheme for cattle that are past productive age or male. First Post and Indian Express Related Articles **** **** Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula? **** In yesterday's article, I described that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force left Singapore and headed for the Korean peninsula, possibly for some confrontation with North Korea, and I wondered what the objective was. In particular, I wondered how long the strike force was going to remain there. A couple of readers have provided me with possible explanations. One readers said that the Carl Vinson would have to remain only until the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system could be fully deployed in South Korea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"But they're waiting for the next test launch of a > potentially nuclear tipped missile by the North Korean's insane > dictator. Then they'll shoot it out of the sky. A little target > practice, shall we say. As they might say in Texas -- "pull!" > > See, the THAAD is just starting to be installed in South Korea, > and obviously that takes some time, so it's not ready yet. ... > > [The carrier strike force is] equipped with the Aegis variant of > functionality quite similar to THAAD - just sea based. I know a > bit about this, since I used to work for the Navy supplier FMC > (now BAE Systems), who makes the Rail Gun and the 5-inch/54 > caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun. > > And it's a legitimate move to shoot down any such North Korean > missile, even if it's just a test. How do we know whether or not > it's just a test? Are we supposed to give it 10 minutes and see > whether it's trajectory is aimed at LA? Better shoot it down, just > in case. ... The carrier group serves as an interim THAAD until > the full THAAD is installed and working. That will allow the > Seoulians to sleep better at night (you said yourself that they're > getting a bit nervous)."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Another reader pointed out that the birthday of the grandfather of the current leader is fast approaching, and the leader might be planning a major provocation on that date: > [indent]<QUOTE>"15 April is Kim Il-Sung's birthday, and is a holiday > in NK called "Day of the Sun" ("Il-Sung" in Korean means "become > the Sun.") The North Koreans have a history of staging > provocations (missile and nuclear tests) so it's likely the Vinson > battle group will be on hand just in case Kim Jong-Un gets > stroppy."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Srinagar, Muslims, Hindus, cow vigilantism, North Korea, Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike force, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Kim Il-sung Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 12-Apr-17 World View -- Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to - John J. Xenakis - 04-11-2017 *** 12-Apr-17 World View -- Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Migrant camp in northern France housing 1,600 people burnt to the ground **** Grande-Synthe refugee camp in Dunkirk, France, burnt to the ground Monday night (Telegraph) Huge fires burned to the ground a Dunkirk migrant camp in northern France, populated by 1,600 refugees who were there in the camp in the hope of reaching Britain, usually by sneaking onto trucks and ferries crossing the English Channel. The camp had been built by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), including hundreds of wooden huts. The camp opened in March 2016 as the first camp in France to meet international humanitarian standards, where migrant families could live in relatively dignified conditions in heated wooden cabins. However, conditions deteriorated within a few months as hundreds more migrants arrived at the camp. Tensions were high in the camp because the number of people living there far exceeded the capacity of the camp, which was more like 700. The population of the camp was originally Iraqi and Kurdish migrants. But when migrant camp known as "The Jungle" in nearby Calais was closed down in October of last year, a large number of the 7,000 migrants that had been housed there moved to the Dunkirk camp, which has been called "the new jungle." Many of these new arrivals were afghans who did not get along with the Iraqis and Kurds, resulting in tensions that sometimes led to violence. The first fire broke out early Monday evening, following fighting between groups of migrants of different nationalities. Some 600 migrants took part in the fighting. The fights continued late into the night, and several hours later, additional fires burned down almost all of the wooden huts, leaving nothing behind but ashes. According to French officials, multiple fires must have been set on purpose. The migrants had been evacuated and rehoused in gymnasiums that had been empty and were converted into temporary emergency shelter in the Dunkirk suburb of Grande-Synthe. However, those can only accommodate 900 people. Some migrants say that they'll return to Calais and set up makeshift camps. Officials are unable to say how long the migrants will stay in the gymnasiums, or what will happen to them next. With the warm weather of summer, a new flood of migrants is expected. RFI and Independent (London) and New Statesman Related Articles
**** **** The Le Touquet treaty, which moves Britain's border into France, will be reconsidered **** The Le Touquet Treaty of 2003 was designed to allow France and Britain each to perform its border checks in the other country, as if there were land borders between the two countries, rather than just a sea border. Without this treaty, a person traveling by ferry from France to Britain would be allowed to travel, and would only get an immigration check once he arrived in Britain. But under the treaty, Britain can perform immigration checks while the traveler is still in France, and block the person from traveling to Britain. Many people blame the existence of the refugee camps in Calais and Dunkirk on the Le Touquet Treaty. According to their reasoning, if migrants could simply get on a ferry to Britain, then the refugee camps would be in Dover rather than in Calais or Dunkirk. When Britain passed the "Brexit referendum" on June 23 of last year, calling for Britain to leave the European Union, some French officials immediately began calling for an end to the Le Touquet treaty. In the months that followed, French and British reaffirmed their commitment to the treaty. However, that may not continue. In the upcoming French presidential election, all three leading candidates in the French presidential election are promising to withdraw from this treaty. Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London - 30-Aug-2016) and Economist and PDF: Text of 2003 Le Touquet Treaty KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Dunkirk, Grande-Synthe refugee camp, Calais, Britain, English Channel, Iraq, Kurds, Afghanistan, Le Touquet Treaty, Brexit Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 13-Apr-17 World View -- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for - John J. Xenakis - 04-12-2017 *** 13-Apr-17 World View -- Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defies Supreme Leader and runs for president **** Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gives a 'V for Victory' sign after registering on Wednesday to run for president Iran's colorful former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who had already served two consecutive terms, from 2005-2013, on Wednesday astonished people both inside and outside of Iran by filling out and submitting registration forms for the May 19 presidential election. Ahmadinejad reversed an earlier decision not to run. In September of last year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said he would not find it advisable for Ahmadinejad to seek a comeback to politics "both for his own and the country’s good." At the time, Ahmadinejad said that he would not run, but now he's changed his mind. After filling out the registration forms on Wednesday, he made a "V for Victory" sign and said, "The Leader advised me not to participate in the elections, and I accepted. His advice, however, shouldn’t be taken to mean that I’m banned." There are three major categories of Iranian politicians, with Ahmadinejad among the most hardline extreme, the "principlists," who insist on adhering to the extreme "principles" of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. They are mostly in the old geezer generation of survivors of the Revolution. They impose strict social laws, such as requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in public, no street music in public, and so forth. Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani, is in the middle category called the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often as hardline as the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual reforms. (The "reformists" are in the younger generations, and favor immediate reforms.) So it would seem that the major campaign battle will be the principlist Ahmadinejad and the moderate Rouhani. But the Supreme Leader, who is the principlist-in-chief, does not like Ahmadinejad, and has put forth his own principlist candidate, Ebrahim Raisi. And since Khamenei controls the Guardian Council, which has the final say on who's allowed to run, it's expected that Khamenei will see to it that Ahmadinejad is disqualified. But wait! This is actually even more bizarre than it seems so far. Ahmadinejad has made a statement that he is not really planning to run for president, and has implied that the only reason that he's registering to run is to support his former vice president Hamid Baghaei. In fact, Ahmadinejad put on a spectacular show on Wednesday. Ahmadinejad walked Baghaei through the registration process, ostensibly with no other purpose. But as soon as Baghaei registered, Ahmadinejad started to leave, but then suddenly turned around, and pulled out his own registration documents in front of a melee of shouting journalists and stunned officials. So how does this help Ahmadinejad's deputy Baghaei run for office? Because Khamenei would find an excuse to disqualify Baghaei, in order to get his own candidate Raisi to win. But with Ahmadinejad running, Khamenei would have to disqualify both Ahmadinejad and Baghaei, and that would apparently be too politically difficult. And to top it off, another of Ahmadinejad's close allies, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to vote. So Khamenei would have to disqualify Ahmadinejad and two of Ahmadinejad's allies. When Ahmadinejad was first elected in 2005, he and Khamenei got along well. But even principlists have policy differences, and by the time of Ahmadinejad's reelection in 2009, Khamenei refused to give Ahmadinejad the perfunctory kiss on the cheek. During Ahmadinejad's second term, Khamenei repeatedly humiliated Ahmadinejad, and Ahmadinejad adopted policies with the partial objective of infuriating Khamenei. There's little doubt that what Ahmadinejad did on Wednesday will be particularly infuriating to Khamenei. Tehran Times and AP Related Articles
**** **** Ahmadinejad waits for the appearance of the Mahdi **** As mentioned above, a top aide and close of friend of Ahmadinejad, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, also registered to run for president. In 2009 Khamenei accused Mashaei and other Ahmadinejad aides of being sorcerers, of using "supernatural powers," and of being "magicians" and invoking djinns (spirits). The charges of sorcery are related to the devout belief, held by Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment. Ahmadinejad disobeyed Supreme Leader Khamenei in several matters, which is considered to be equivalent to disobeying God. But Ahmadinejad was just paving the way for the return of the Hidden Imam, and was using his claim that the Hidden Imam's return is imminent as a justification for disobeying Khamenei. Thus, the charges of sorcery. It's possible that the belief in the Mahdi is related to some of Ahmadinejad's conspiracy theories. Probably the most famous of his conspiracy theories is that the Holocaust never occurred, but was put forth by a conspiracy of Zionists. On other occasions, he said that Osama bin Laden and George W. Bush were friends, and that the West had engineered HIV aids. That was far-fetched enough, but even more far-fetched was his claim in 2012 that Western technology was preventing the rain from falling in Iran: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Today our country is moving towards drought, which is > partly unintentional due to industry and partly intentional, as a > result of the enemy destroying the clouds moving towards our > country and this is a war that Iran is going to overcome. > > I feel that the world arrogance and colonization, by using their > technologies, are affecting the environmental situation in > Iran."<END QUOTE>[/indent] In 2007, Ahmadinejad gave a speech at Columbia University in New York, and made this claim: "In Iran we don't have homosexuals like in your country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon. I do not know who has told you we have it." He drew hysterical laughter. As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic nation. Its principlist top leadership, starting with the supreme leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations are, in fact, reformists and generally pro-Western and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today, those students are in their 30s, and have risen to positions of power, ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies off. They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States, along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. Newsweek and Al Monitor (15-Mar) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, Hassan Rouhani, Ebrahim Raisi, Hamid Baghaei, Mahdaviat, Mahdi, 12'th Imam, Hidden Imam, Maitreya Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approac - John J. Xenakis - 04-13-2017 *** 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approaches on Saturday **** People in Seoul, South Korea, watch a TV news program showing a file image of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Wednesday (AP) In North Korea, Saturday April 15 is called "The Day of the Sun." It's the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder, Kim Il-Sung, whose name means "Sun of the Nation." Kim Il-Sung was the grandfather of the current child dictator, Kim Jong-un. Kim likes to do provocative things on a regular basis, and particular likes to do something spectacular on April 15. Japan's fifth nuclear test was conducted on Sept. 9, 2016. According to a new report from the North Korea monitoring group 38North, North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is "primed and ready," based on satellite imagery captured two days ago. This suggests that North Korea's sixth nuclear test may occur on Saturday, or in the near future. Other possible dates in the near future are April 25, the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or May 9, the date of South Korea's presidential election. But a lot of analysts will be very surprised if North Korea doesn't perform a new nuclear test, possibly along with some new ballistic missile tests, some time in the next month. If Kim Jong-un does do something provocative and spectacular, many people are wondering how the United States will respond, particularly since President Donald Trump ordered the missile strike in Syria, after Syria's government killed hundreds of people with a Sarin gas attack two ago, and after Trump ordered the Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group to the Korean Peninsula. On Thursday, Trump wrote a tweet that he believes China will be able to rein in the North. "I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will! U.S.A." 38 North and Pravda (Moscow) and Washington Post Related Articles
**** **** Japan's Shinzo Abe: N. Korea may be able to attack Japan with Sarin gas missile **** Japan, which is the only country in the world to have been hit by a nuclear weapon, is particularly concerned about being attacked by a North Korean nuclear weapon. Tensions have been particularly raised by North Korea's repeated tests of ballistic missiles launched in the direction of Japan. None of the tests has struck Japanese soil, but some have reached the Sea of Japan. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been advocating a proposal to develop the capability to directly attack North Korean military bases. Japan is still bound by a post World War II pacifist constitution that permits military action only for defensive purposes, and so Abe emphasized that Japan has no plan to acquire such powerful weapons and would never launch a pre-emptive strike against any country. However, Abe pointed out that North Korea could attack Japan with Sarin gas: > [indent]<QUOTE>"There is a possibility that North Korea has the > ability to hit (Japan) with a ballistic missile carrying sarin in > its warhead."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Abe pointed to the Syria's sarin gas attack last week, where "nearly 100 innocent people, including children and babies, were victimized." Just as Japan was the target of a nuclear weapon, Japan has also been the object of a sarin gas attack. Members of a Japanese doomsday cult killed 12 people and made thousands ill in 1995 in simultaneous attacks with sarin nerve gas on five Tokyo rush-hour subway trains. Concerns have been growing about North Korea’s chemical weapons capabilities since Kim Jong-un's estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam, was killed with VX nerve agent in Malaysia in February. According to Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s top aide, "North Korea is thought to maintain multiple facilities that are capable of producing chemical weapons and already hold a sizable amount of chemical weapons." The South Korean Defense Ministry has estimated that Pyongyang, which reportedly started producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, now owns 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including the lethal nerve agents sarin and VX. Japan Times and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** China's tripwires for invading North Korea **** In 1961, China and North Korea sign a mutual defense treaty that specifies that if one of the parties comes under armed attack, the other should render immediate assistance, including military support. It's this umbrella of protection that has allowed North Korea to make increasingly provocative acts, knowing that China is required by treaty to protect it. In 2010, North Korea launched a missile attack on the South Korean warship Cheonan, killing 46 people, and then North Korea shelled South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, killing four South Koreans. These were both clearly acts of war, but China staunchly defended North Korea, and South Korea was unable to retaliate. However, it's been clear that China has been running out of patience with North Korea's renegade leader Kim Jong-un, who has been conducting nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests that violations of international law and are strongly opposed by China. So analysts are wondering under what circumstances China would invade North Korea, either to defend it against South Korea and the US, or to take control of North Korea for its own purposes. An analysis by the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post suggests that China is no longer obliged to defend North Korea from military attack under the 1961 treaty, since North Korea has repeatedly violated the treaty. The treaty requires both nations to safeguard peace and security, and for China, North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons in violation of the United Nations treaty on non-proliferation could amount to a breach of their pact, leaving Beijing with no obligation to lend a hand. According to Li Jie, a retired Chinese naval colonel: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s hard to say how China would assist North Korea > militarily in case of war, since North Korea is developing nuclear > weapons, an act that might have already breached the treaty > between the two nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent] A different analysis in Chinese state sponsored Global Times acknowledges that North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is intolerable to the United States, and notes that Trump has warned that if China doesn't take care of North Korea's nuclear weapons, then the US will. According to the analysis, China would be willing to impose even harsher sanctions on North Korea, including the devastating sanction of ending oil imports, if China continues its illegal testing: > [indent]<QUOTE>"If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the > near future, the possibility of US military action against it will > be higher than ever. Not only is Washington brimming with > confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, > but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his > promises. > > Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean > nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of > no-solution will not be accepted. > > A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test, > if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face > of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between > North Korea and the US. > > Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang's new nuclear > actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang's > aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC) > resolution. > > More and more Chinese support the view that the government should > enhance sanctions over Pyongyang's nuclear activities. If the > North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese > society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive > measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil > imports to the North. Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is > intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a > tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs > point to the opposite direction. > > The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting > further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a > nuclear-armed Pyongyang."<END QUOTE>[/indent] A third analysis was performed by KGS Nightwatch by examining some Chinese government and military newsletters that have addressed North Korea's nuclear weapons development in recent days. This analysis addresses a different question: Under what circumstances would China intervene militarily in North Korea. There are four tripwires listed in the analysis:
South Korea's media reported earlier this week that the Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to northeastern China near the Yalu River, "to prepare for unforeseen circumstances," in view of the arrival of the Carl Vinson strike force. However, China has denied deploying these troops. There's a surreal quality of fantasy about these reports of Chinese military actions. China is planning this or that military action with no fear of losses or of international retribution, as if the Chinese were invincible. And whenever I read about China's military plans about anything, I get the feeling of invincibility, as if they're saying, "All we want is peace and stability, so just do as we command you to do and there will always be peace and stability; and if you don't, then we'll just kill you, and we'll get peace and stability that way." So let's make it clear. Any of the military actions discussed in this article, even a "small" military action, will spiral into something bigger in this generational Crisis era, and will spiral further into a world war within weeks or at most a few months. Nobody is invicible here, and China would be worse off than many, because it would be fighting both a civil war and an external war. I've estimated that a world war will kill 3-4 billion people from nuclear weapons, ground war, disease and starvation, leaving 3-4 billion traumatized people behind to hold peace conferences and rebuild the world. South China Monring Post (Hong Kong) and Global Times (Beijing) and KGS Nightwatch and Chosun (South Korea) (Trans) and Global Times (Beijing) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Day of the Sun, Kim Il-Sung, Kim Jong-un, 38 North, Punggye-ri, Carl Vinson carrier strike group, Syria, Sarin gas, VX nerve agent, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Kim Jong-nam, South Korea, China, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-14-2017 The boomers are a generation of idiots. Ever since they dismantled the MIC back in the 1970s, they have consistently rejected all opportunities to transform America into a Roman Empire/byzantine/Chinese empire/Mongol empire/spanish empire/napoleonic/german/japanese- esque style military state. The brilliant potential of Xers and Millies is being wasted by the generation of moronic boomers who throw this all away in favor of selfish hedonistic, globalistic, capitalistic decadence. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-14-2017 Assads actions are completely legitimate. Syria is a sovereign state and what it's government does within its own borders is of no concern to us. RE: 14-Apr-17 World View -- North Korea's neighbors tense as the 'Day of the Sun' approac - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2017 (04-14-2017, 10:16 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > But ... China supplies the semiconductors used in the DPRK's I believe that North Korea could purchase semiconductors from other countries, such as Iran or Russia or Syria. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2017 (04-14-2017, 11:35 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Assads actions are completely legitimate. Syria is a sovereign The logic you're using is not valid. For example, what a person does within his own home is not always legitimate. For example, he may not take meth, he may not have sex with his daughter, and he may not commit murder. These are all considered to be criminal actions, and the perpetrator could be convicted of a crime and sent to jail for a long time. Similarly, al-Assad's actions are not at all legitimate, just because his actions occur within his country's borders. Using Sarin gas on innocent women and children and little babies, or on any people for that matter, is the criminal action of a war criminal, and al-Assad could be convicted of a war crime and sent to jail for a long time. 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2017 *** 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down **** Al-Shabaab fighters The US is sending dozens of troops to Somalia in order to provide training to Somali forces fighting the al-Qaeda linked Islamist group al-Shabaab. This is the largest deployment of American troops to the Horn of Africa since American troops were withdrawn in 1994, following the disastrous Black Hawk down incident. In October 1993, a US operation in Mogadishu ended in disaster when two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down, leading to a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis and 18 Americans. About 40 soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division, based in Fort Campbell, Ky, have been sent to Somalia. They will not take part in combat, but will focus on training the Somali army to bolster its logistics capabilities. The Somali government had requested the training, as its war against al-Qaeda based al-Shabaab has been far from decisive. At the same time, the US military is increasing the number of airstrikes against al-Shabaab. The African Union troops include armies from Kenya and Uganda, but these troops are scheduled to pull out in 2018. The purpose of the US troops is to train the Somalis to fight al-Shabaab on their own, which may or may not be successful. Stars and Stripes and AP and Foreign Policy Related Articles
**** **** Somalia's civil war and the Black Hawk Down incident **** Somalia's civil war ran from 1988 to 1994, but the stage was set decades earlier by the rise of Mohamed Siad Barre, who seized power in 1969 and set up a brutal Marxist totalitarian dictatorship. Siad tried to unify the local clans, but in the end the clans destroyed him and his totalitarian state. In 1977, next-door-neighbor Ethiopia was in chaos, at the start of a full-scale generational crisis war with Eritrea. Siad tried to take advantage of the chaos by attacking Ogaden, a large region of Ethiopia on Somalia's border, populated mostly by Somalis. Siad had hoped to get the backing of his pals in the Soviet Union, but they betrayed him and sided with Ethiopia. The result of Siad's abortive invasion was that hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees from Ogaden poured across the border into Somalia, destabilizing the country. These refugees joined with existing claims to attack Siad's regime, with the intention of overthrowing it, leading to full-scale civil war by 1988. By 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea climaxed. However, Somalia's civil war continued with the destruction of Somalia's crops, causing widespread famine and almost total anarchy in Somalia. Siad was ousted and forced to flee the country, leading to an even bloodier succession battle. International aid agencies flew food into Somalia to ease the famine, but the food was stolen by warring clan militias. In 1992, the United Nations actively intervened, and sent a peacekeeping force of 35,000 troops in "Operation Restore Hope." The situation continued to deteriorate, and in October 1993, elite American troops launched a disastrous raid in the Somali capital Mogadishu. Two American Black Hawk helicopters were shot down using rocket-propelled grenades. Some of the survivors were rescued, but two pilots were attacked by a mob of thousands of Somalis who hacked them to death with machetes and dragged their mutilated bodies through the streets as trophies. The result was a 15-hour battle that killed hundreds of Somalis, as well as about 18 Americans and two UN soldiers. The Black Hawk down incident, also known as the Battle of Mogadishu, had lasting effects on both sides. On the Somali side, the mob attack and ensuing battle appears to be one of the climactic events of Somali crisis civil war. On the American side, Black Hawk down shocked the public, and was well remembered in books and a major movie. It caused the US to withdraw its forces from Somalia in 1994, and to be reluctant to intervene in African crises since then. So, for example, the US stayed out of the massive Rwanda massacre in 1994, which is probably just as well. Today, as US troops return to Somalia, the country is in a generational Awakening era, which means that a new generation of kids has grown up hearing stories of the glorious adventures of their fathers in shooting down the two Black Hawks and hacking the pilots' bodies to death, and anxious to have the opportunity to do it again. So there is absolutely no chance at all that the current government of Somalia, with the help of US and African Union forces, will be able to subdue al-Shabaab. History World and BBC and Independent (London - 3-Jan-1995) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Somalia, Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda, Black Hawk Down, Battle of Mogadishu, 101st Airborne Division, African Union, Kenya, Uganda, Mohamed Siad Barre, Ethiopia, Ogaden Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia - Ragnarök_62 - 04-14-2017 (04-14-2017, 09:58 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 15-Apr-17 World View -- US sends dozens of troops to Somalia, first time since Black Hawk Down Oh, I hear a calling to my red and black aura here. Ahhhhhaaaa. such a cosmic experience man. It never ends. Humans killing til to the ends. So, it goes, Syria goes to Anarchy, and thusly, Somalia, the ultimate metaphor. Hahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahah. Another wound in the empire's flesh. Stupid "humanitarian" interventions in Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. Now, Donald, Drumphenstufpher goes forth to the bait, to be consumed in the Mideast Blackhole, ahhhh yeahhh, yea, man, yea, THC Uber alles, Rags, opts out of the Imperial consorts, yeah, man, a true child of the 1960's knows the way out. Mind altering chemicals is the true way, for it's written that anyone can be sovereign , given the key of the ultimate, chemicals, man, yeah, "Better Living Though Chemistry". DOW chemical. Yeah, just do it, man. Turn On [to chemicals], Tune in Samsara Blues Experiment/yeah....... hmmmmm..... C2H50H and THC,....... fuck the MIC...... I'm a useless hunk of biomass wrt MIC....... Hahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahah. and.... fuck yeah, opt out. Ooooh yeah, Rags doesn't give a flying fuck about Mideast borders drawn by WWI powers from the Ottoman Empire. That's why theirs fighting... US out of MIdeast, US go for energy independence. Fuck NATO, UN, "One World Order:", hahahahahahahahahah. I bet Syria will be the next "failed state". Yehahahahahahahaahahahahah........... Wow, man. Smokie da pipe yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.................. |