Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-17-2017 (04-17-2017, 09:19 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Thank you. So if it comes to military action, we should expect Generally speaking, I don't believe that the politicians have much control over what happens during a generational crisis war. A crisis war is almost totally emotional, controlled much more by mobs than by reason. So the age of the leader shouldn't make any difference. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-17-2017 (04-17-2017, 11:51 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-17-2017, 09:46 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > The only viable candidate for the Korean Crisis War is the Korean The Anglo-Spanish war, the Thirty years War and Spanish succession wars ended with all an armistice. The Napoleonic wars ended with treaties except in the Last war in which napoleon was finally defeated. The only Major international war in the past several centuries in which the peace was imposed entirely by one victorious side without any input from the defeated was WW2, although Germany after WW1 in 1919 signed the final peace only after being given an ultimatum of basically "sign or else". In the Korean war the armistice was basically imposed on the Koreans by the US, China and USSR. A big reason why the US supported the South Korean reformers in the early 1980s is because of strong concerns that if the South Koreans were given more military capabilities than what they needed to defend themselves, they would have marched into the North. Which was a major mistake in my opinion as South Korea would have been much more militarily capable and we wouldn't have troops constantly stationed there as deterrence against the North. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-17-2017 (04-17-2017, 11:56 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > The Anglo-Spanish war, the Thirty years War and Spanish succession But you have to have a crisis war climax before the armistice. There was no crisis war climax in the Korean war, to my knowledge. If a war reaches a truce or armistice without a crisis war climax, then it was not a crisis war. A crisis war climax is an explosive, genocidal event that's so horrible that it brings the war to an end, and is remembered for decades or even centuries. It's the climax that ends the fourth turning Crisis era, and begins the first turning Recovery era. So for example, the War of the Spanish Succession was settled by the 1714 Treaty of Utrecht, but the genocidal 1709 Battle of Malplaquet was the climax. I know this because I spent dozens of hours studying the War of the Spanish Succession in 2004 before I finally figured out what was going on. The major problem with your list is that what you are identifying as wars are really groups of wars. For example, WW II was not a single war. You had multiple wars, with different climaxes. The European war climax was the firebombing of Dresden and the fall of Berlin. The Pacific war climax was the nuking of Japan and surrender. But you also had the China war, which climaxed in 1949, and the Mideast war that also climaxed in 1949. In India, the Partition war climaxed in 1948, but there was a separate war in eastern India that didn't climax until 1971. When you do a generational analysis of any war, then you have to study the history of each country separately. In a large country, like India, there may be multiple timelines, multiple crisis wars, and multiple climaxes in different regions. So if you want to claim that the 1950s Korea war was a crisis war for Korea, then you're going to have to identify a crisis war climax. But everything I've read about the Korea war is that it ended in a stalemate. I'm not aware of any event that can be called a climax. Or, to put it another way, the Korean War crisis is yet to come. http://www.history.com/topics/korean-war RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 04-17-2017 (04-17-2017, 11:40 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(04-15-2017, 01:57 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Also John X on an entirely different subject. Many Americans oppose immigration and outsourcing because it lowers the manufacturing base of the country and the influx of immigrants means higher unemployment for Americans because many businesses out of greed; refuse to hire American workers. Here's a link I posted in another thread. It deserves a spot here. https://thefederalist.com/2015/12/08/how-the-left-created-donald-trump/ Oh yeah, check the date. Quite prescient. Said link hits home. I despise the new time religion of PC and all of its catechisms. I do of course oppose ILLEGAL immigration. We're a nation of laws, not a population sponge for the rest of the world. Legal immigration with the idea that global warming's gonna put a huge hurt on the US land's carrying capacity in now and on into the far,far future. All public policy needs to have a reality check wrt nice new *geologic era we created. The Republicans are no better since that party has no idea which geologic era we're really in. So, again, it's a pox on both parties. "Angry white racebaiters" : Uh, no everyone's race baiting somewhere or another. BLM's calling for reparations which is just ridiculous for example. OK, it's lame because the vast majority of "Anglos", "white people", or what the fuck, let's use "Euro-Americans" had nothing to do with a slavery . Let's make another hyphenated racial group just like all of the others. I'll toss in for good measure, "genders". There's only 2 genders as per science. If you have a Y chromosome, you are a male, else, female. That can be covered with basic biology of if you're a hacker like me, a simple if/else/ statement. (If person.y-chromosome == true ) { person.sex = "male"; } else { person.sex = "female"; } The future's gonna be a wild ride since humans are the 2nd organism that's managed to influence the flow of geologic ages since those cyanobacteria. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event http://www.nature.com/news/anthropocene-the-human-age-1.17085 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-17-2017 India already had a major war in 1947-48 the partition massacres effected all regions where Hindus and Muslims lived together in both western and eastern India. The 1971 war was an entirely separate war that was fought for entirely separate reasons from what happened in 1948. The notion that wars only occur in crisis eras is an ideological delusion needed to justify globalist world government as is the notion that after this next 4T the entire world would be under the same saeculum. Also the US military is superior in capability to both Russia and China and US strength is stronger relative to the rest of the world militarily than it is economically. If a Russian or Chinese force conducts a first-strike against the US nuclear forces they would have take out the submarines and silos. There are 14 active nuclear subs, 12 of them are outside of port at any given time. If a Russian or Chinese strategist decides to go around the warning time by smuggling emplaced nukes into the ports and detonating them, that would only destroy the two subs that are at port. Just 1 sub is needed to cripple Russian capabilities in a counter-strike, 2 subs for the same effect on China. John X likes denying concrete facts so as a final factoid just to refute him again, the US achieved a budget surplus in the late 1990s and had a budget surplus in 2000-2001 until Bush decided to fight the war on terror after 9/11 without actual spending increases like the war bonds of WW2. 18-Apr-17 World View -- Worries grow that India is 'losing Kashmir,' as violence incr - John J. Xenakis - 04-17-2017 *** 18-Apr-17 World View -- Worries grow that India is 'losing Kashmir,' as violence increases This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Video of Kashmir man tied to jeep further inflames anti-India violence **** Indian security forces tie Kashmiri man to jeep to discourage rock throwing by separatists Although the violence in India-governed Kashmir has settled down a bit since the large surge that accompanied the elections on April 9, there is still simmering below the surface a great deal of anger - certainly on the part of the Muslims, and almost as much on the part of the Indian security forces. The picture above is a frame from a video that went viral. It shows a Kashmiri man that the security forces tied to the front of a jeep as it travels down the street. The reason given for tying the man to the jeep was to discourage Kashmiris from throwing stones at the jeep. In the video, a warning can be heard saying that stone pelters will meet the same fate (being tied to a jeep). The entire video can be seen at this Twitter address. There are many videos from Kashmir being posted these days, mostly by separatists who want to portray alleged violence by security forces. However, security forces have also been posting videos. One from polling day on April 9 shows security officers being pelted by stone throwers, and then a young man whacks a security office over the head, causing his helmet to come off and roll down the street. The young men change "Go India, go back." This entire video can be seen at this Twitter address. As I wrote earlier this month, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is showing signs of repeated the violence of 1857 and 1947. Stone-throwing incidents started to become frequent after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire. There was a big surge in violence that continued almost daily until Winter. Security forces responded harshly with pellet guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye and five were blinded. Thousands of youths have been arrested. Now Winter is over. It's still only April. Summer doesn't even begin until June 21, and then there are three more months until the Fall. The most likely scenario is that violence is going to continue throughout the summer. At some point, the violence is going to spiral into full-scale rebellion, just as happened in 1857 and 1947. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Mumbai Times and Deccan Chronicle and DNA India Related Articles
**** **** Signs grow in media that Indians are beginning worry about Kashmir **** My impression, after writing about the Kashmir issue off and on for years, that Indians are in a state of almost total denial about what's happening in Kashmir. In fact, just a couple of months ago I spoke to an acquaintance who had been born in Kashmir and lived there as a child. I asked him what he thought about the growing violence in Kashmir. He said that it was nothing - it had happened before in the 1990s, and would die down again. Of course he didn't understand that in the 1990s there were still plenty of survivors of the 1947 war still around who made sure that it did die down. Based on my readings of India's media, I'm seeing something different, signs that Indians are becoming aware of how dangerous Kashmir is becoming, and that things might get a great deal worse. P Chidambaram, a member of the Congress party, which is the opposition to the current government of Narendra Modi, said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"My position on Kashmir is well known. I have been > writing, speaking that we are losing Kashmir. ... The path that > the government of Jammu and Kashmir and the central (Indian) > government have taken is a perilous path. This path will not lead > to any kind of peace or any kind of engagement with the > people. ... > > The answer is not using the Army, the armed forces and the police > force. The answer is not a muscular Kashmir policy. The answer is > to engage with all stakeholders."<END QUOTE>[/indent] An editorial in the Hindustan Times acknowledges Chidambaram's statement, and says: "The Narendra Modi government wants a new approach and has settled on a policy that combines harsh crackdowns on agitating youth and initiatives that undermine mainstream parties." According to the article, New Delhi politicians are still in a state of continued denial: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Valley is seething – the deaths of teenagers and > the presence of those blinded by pellet guns are a constant spur > to maintain political purity and distance from India and those > working for its institutions. > > Ordinarily, this would alarm Delhi as there’s a palpable loss of > control and India’s image abroad at stake. But the Centre appears > unperturbed and is maintaining its aggressive line. There has been > no real regret about civilian casualties; instead home minister > Rajnath Singh has ominously suggested that India “will see a > transformed Kashmir in a year. No matter how the change occurs, > one thing is certain, that there will be a change in Kashmir in a > year’s time.” He also said those pelting stones “will have to face > the consequences.” In February, army chief Bipin Rawat warned > youth in Kashmir saying “those who obstruct our operations during > encounters and are not supportive will be treated as overground > workers of terrorists. They may survive today but we will get > them tomorrow. Our relentless operations will > continue."<END QUOTE>[/indent] These quotes from New Delhi officials are totally delusional and will lead to disaster. However, they show how strong the sense of nationalism still prevails over common sense. And editorial in Indian Express says the following: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It is an unmistakable sign of the corrosion of Indian > democracy that an odd combination of illusions and nauseating > bravado is being spun in Delhi around the grim political situation > in Kashmir. Every element of Indian policy in Kashmir lies in > tatters. And yet, instead of asking forthright questions, our > denial goes deeper. Kashmir now seems to be going from a deep and > violent conflict to a state where there seems to be a death wish > all around: Security forces with no means to restore order other > than by inflicting death, Indian nationalism now more interested > in showing machismo than solving real problems, increasingly > radicalized militancy with almost a touch of apocalyptic disregard > for life, foreign powers fishing in troubled waters, scores of > young men and children even, who are making a statement that > courting death seems a better option than what they regard as > suffocating oppression. They are all feeding off each > other."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This article drew a number of angry, nationalistic comments. Here's a sample:
What's different from the past, as far as I can tell, is that there's a debate emerging between the nationalistic view that "Kashmir is ours, and separatists should be treated harshly," versus "Nothing is working, and we should try something desperate like "engaging with all stakeholders." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, no solution exists to the growing violence in Kashmir, and the same kind of violence will be repeated as occurred in 1857 and 1947. At some point, possibly this summer, something violent will occur to force Indians out of their state of denial, and into a state of panic. At that point, cooler heads may or may not prevail. Kashmir Media Service and Hindustan Times and Indian Express KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, P Chidambaram, Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Bipin Rawat Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 04-18-2017 (04-17-2017, 06:58 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: India already had a major war in 1947-48 the partition massacres effected all regions where Hindus and Muslims lived together in both western and eastern India. The 1971 war was an entirely separate war that was fought for entirely separate reasons from what happened in 1948. The notion that wars only occur in crisis eras is an ideological delusion needed to justify globalist world government as is the notion that after this next 4T the entire world would be under the same saeculum. 1. OK, I'll be 55 next month. I have no skin in this game. So... Cynic, are YOU willing to be drafted to fight the 1st nuclear war? Tell us, OK? I play Hold'em, no limit. So, are you willing to commit all of your chips on 1 hand? Let me know, OK? I've done this a lot of times. Yeah $200.00 stacks, on 1 single hand of 2 cards. Let's say I have a hand I'm OK with playing for stacks with. I know my 2 cards and have an idea of what YOU HAVE. If I shove "ALL IN", what are you going to do? It's an "ALL IN MOMENT". So... are you gonna call or just fold up? I'm sick of stupid pussies with all bluster and nothin' else. Call me, or fold up and tuck your tail behind your sorry ass. Got it? 2. War Bonds: OK, big guy, buy those damn war bonds. Besides, bring' 'em to the poker table. I'll be more than glad to swap those for poker chips, ... cause I'll most likely win those chips off of you, regardless. 3. Russia/China. : No need to fight when you're rockin' right, man. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-18-2017 (04-17-2017, 06:58 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X likes denying concrete facts so as a final factoid just to It always amazes that you've been in this forum for over ten years, but you still have no clue what the difference is between a crisis war and a non-crisis war. However, I'd like to focus on the above comment. On its face it's ridiculous, because spending on the Iraq war didn't begin until 2003, but the deficit began worsening in 2000, which was the last year of the Clinton administration. Here's a graph that I posted two years ago: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=205626
** 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e150202.htm#e150202 So it's not the evil Boomers who ignore the facts; it's certain idiot Gen-Xers, who live in a world of total fantasy, and who need to be educated about the factoids. 19-Apr-17 World View -- UN says lengthy Mosul operation leading to major humanitarian - John J. Xenakis - 04-18-2017 *** 19-Apr-17 World View -- UN says lengthy Mosul operation leading to major humanitarian disaster This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** UN says lengthy Mosul operation leading to major humanitarian disaster **** Woman fleeing Mosul carries her child in one hand and a bag of belongings in the other (CNN) It's now been six months since October 17, 2016, the beginning of the military operation to recapture Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Iraq's army is leading the offensive, with support from the United States with a mix of Special Operations Forces, intelligence and close air support. But frustrations are growing because progress has been slow. The portion of Mosul on the east side of the Tigris river has already been recaptured, but the dense population, the narrow streets of western Mosul, and the advance preparation of the ISIS fighters combine to slow the operation down to a crawl. ISIS has booby-trapped streets and buildings with IED bombs, and attacks with suicide motorbike attacks, and sniper and mortar fire. If ISIS fighters are using a particular building as a base or for storage of weapons, local residents are forced to live in the building as human shields, so that it cannot be bombed by American warplanes. According to the United Nations, the scale of civilians fleeing Mosul is "staggering," and relief efforts have been stretched to the "operational limits." According to a Lise Grande, the UN's Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Our worst case scenario when the fighting started was > that up to one million civilians may flee Mosul. Already, more > than 493,000 people have left, leaving almost everything behind,” > Lise Grande, the Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, said in a news > release issued by the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian > Affairs (OCHA). > > “The sheer volume of civilians still fleeing Mosul city is > staggering. ... We are doing everything we can but this has been a > long battle and the assault on the old city hasn't > started."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The UN claims that since fighting began in October, they've provided some 1.9 million people with food, water, shelter, emergency kits, medical support and psycho-social services. The UN emphasizes that all parties to the conflict are obliged, under International Humanitarian Law, to do everything possible to protect civilians, ensure they have the assistance they need, and limit damage to civilian infrastructure. Haha. United Nations and Reuters and Al Jazeera Related Articles
**** **** ISIS using both mustard gas and chlorine gas attacks in Mosul **** On Friday of last week, ISIS fired a rocket loaded with chlorine at a neighborhood in western Mosul, injuring seven soldiers, according to Iraqi military sources. On Sunday, 25 Iraqi soldiers in a unit with US and Australian advisers suffered breathing problems after being hit by a mustard gas attack. Gas masks are being distributed to Iraqi forces, in case of future gas attacks. AP and CBS News **** **** Iraq says that ISIS and al-Qaeda are in talks to join forces **** According to Iraq's vice president Ayad Allawi, ISIS and al-Qaeda are talking about forming an alliance, once ISIS is defeated in Mosul: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The discussion has started now. There are > discussions and dialogue between messengers representing Baghdadi > and representing Zawahiri."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Allawi was referring to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and al-Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although an alliance between ISIS and al-Qaeda might seem like a jihadist's dream come true, the two organizations are like oil and water. The al-Qaeda linked organization in the region is Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) which renamed itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS) when it cut its ties to al-Qaeda. It did so in order to join forces with Ahrar al-Sham, a "moderate" anti-Assad group that did not want to have any links to jihadist organizations, either al-Qaeda or ISIS. Nominally, JFS is no longer linked to al-Qaeda, although some analysts believe that the links still exist. ISIS was formed from about 50,000 jihadist fighters from 86 countries that came to Syria to fight al-Assad. These foreigners were not welcomed by the Syrian fighters, either the "moderate" fighters or the al-Nusra Front fighters, and so al-Nusra and ISIS began fighting each other. For years, al-Assad and ISIS have been effectively allied. That's because ISIS was interested in gaining territory, and that was at the expense of the militias of Syrian citizens. So al-Assad and ISIS both were targeting the Syrian opposition to the government. Now that ISIS is close to defeat in Mosul, Iraq, and is being attacked by a military operation in its stronghold Raqqa, in Syria, it's not surprising that the two thuggish organizations are talking to each other. In today's bizarro world where it seems that anything can happen, maybe they can find a way to form some kind of working relationship. But what's far more likely is that when ISIS is defeated it will split up, and its members will return to their home countries and, in some cases, perform terrorist acts there. Reuters and Newsweek and Fox News Related Articles KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria, Lise Grande, United Nations, al-Qaeda, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Ayad Allawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Ahrar al-Sham Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Apr-17 World View -- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory - John J. Xenakis - 04-19-2017 *** 20-Apr-17 World View -- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections **** Far-right politicians: Marine Le Pen of France, and Brexit champion Nigel Farage of Britain (AFP) Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right Front National party is still considered to be a very long shot to become the next president of France, but it's no longer considered an impossibility, mainly because of three factors: the unexpected passage of the Brexit referendum in Britain last year, the unexpected election of Donald Trump in the US last year, and a trend of rising nationalistic, xenophobic political parties in countries across Europe in recent years. The first round of the presidential elections will be held on Sunday, April 23. There are 11 candidates, so it's almost impossible for anyone to win by getting over 50% of the vote. The top two candidates will then take part in a runoff election on May 7, to determine the final winner. President François Hollande, a Socialist, has had abysmal popularity ratings, and so has chosen not to run for a second term, a decision unprecedented in modern times. The polls put the top four candidates at around 20% each. Emmanuel Macron is the youngest, a 39-year-old former investment banker, and former economy minister under Hollande. He's considered to be the favorite among the mainstream "globalist" European politicians. The early favorite was Republican François Fillon, but his support has crashed because of a scandal where he allegedly arranged for his wife to receive a large salary for a job that required little or no work. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the far-left candidate, a kind of political mirror image of Marine Le Pen, though not entirely. Le Pen is anti-immigration, while Mélenchon is pro-immigration, but the two candidates do agree on one important issue: Neither of them likes the euro currency. Although Le Pen could flame out in the first round, it's widely expected that she will be one of the two leading candidates. Mainstream politicians are hoping a second round matching Le Pen with Macron. In that case, it's expected that Macron pick up voters from the candidates that have dropped out, while Le Pen's core group of supporters would stay the same, with the result that Macron would defeat Le Pen by a wide margin. The scenario that most fear is that in the first round on Sunday, the two winners would be the two extremes, the far-right Le Pen and the far-left Mélenchon. This would be considered a disaster for the eurozone, as either one would like to return to the original French franc currency. After last year's unexpected Brexit and Trump victories, there's a great deal of anxiety among European politicians who fear that anything could happened. BBC and Market Pulse and Foreign Policy and Euro News and Daily Signal **** **** Marine Le Pen fights accusations of anti-Semitism **** Marine Le Pen is the current leader of the Front National party, which had a strong history of anti-Semitism under its previous leader and founder, Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, a Holocaust denier. At some point, she came to the conclusion that she and the Front National party could not become successful without completely breaking its anti-Semitic past. She did so by breaking with her father, and banning him from the party. She has not repeated any of her father's anti-Semitic remarks, and has even condemned them. But in interviews, she's always asked about Jewish issues, and her answers are always heavily scrutinized by a mainstream press that is as consumed with hostility to her as with Donald Trump. One of the most controversial examples occurred in a recent interview where she insisted that France was not responsible for a July 1942 atrocity known as "Vel d'Hiv," where French officials rounded up 13,000 Jews and turned them over to the Nazis to be deported to Auschwitz. She had scramble to explain that the "real" French government at that time was in exile, while the perpetrators of the atrocity were the puppet government in Paris under Nazi control. In fact, Le Pen has appealed to Jewish voters by saying that she's best support of Jews because she's so strongly opposed to Muslim immigrants, essentially using one form of xenophobia to claim that she's innocent of another form of xenophobia. It's quite a remarkable argument. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are two important things to be noted here, things that I've written about many times. First, nationalism and xenophobia do not come ftom the politicians. They come from the people. If Marine Le Pen had not stepped forward to represent anti-Muslim and possibly anti-Semitic voters, then someone else would have done so, because the people were demanding it. What a politician can do is represent nationalistic and xenophobic voters, but then do everything possible to ameliorate the worst abuses of those attitudes. As I've noted in the past, Donald Trump has backed off from his early remarks Mexicans and Muslims, and appears to have adopted a course that takes into account the anxieties of his supporters, while preventing any abuses from taking place. Theresa May in Britain is similarly trying to chart a course that accommodates Brexit supporters, while avoiding total disaster for Britain's economy. The second important point is that nationalism and xenophobia are growing around the world. Whether it's Chinese vs Japanese, Chinese vs Vietnamese, Buddhists vs Rohingyas in Myanmar, Hindus vs Muslims in Kashmir, or Sunnis vs Shias in the Mideast, nationalism and xenophobia have been growing around the world, in one country after another. This is what always happens in a generational Crisis era, and it always leads to major wars or world wars. The Local (France) and Books and Ideas and Atlantic and News Max **** **** The threat to the 'European project' **** The phrase "European Project" refers to the efforts, begun in the 1950s, to take steps to prevent another massive war in Europe. It's hard today to remember the mood of the public in those days. Here's what Hannah Arendt wrote in her 1950 book, The Origins of Totalitarianism: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Two world wars in one generation, separated by an > uninterrupted chain of local wars and revolutions, followed by no > peace treaty for the vanquished and no respite for the victor, > have ended in the anticipation of a third World War between the > two remaining world powers [America and the Soviet Union]. This > moment of anticipation is like the calm that settles after all > hopes have died. We no longer hope for an eventual restoration of > the old world order with all its traditions, or for the > reintegration of the masses of five continents who have been > thrown into a chaos produced by the violence of wars and > revolutions and the growing decay of all that has still been > spared. Under the most diverse conditions and disparate > circumstances, we watch the development of the same phenomena -- > homelessness on an unprecedented scale, rootlessness to an > unprecedented depth. > > Never has our future been more unpredictable, never have we > depended so much on political forces that cannot be trusted to > follow the rules of common sense and self-interest -- forces that > look like sheer insanity, if judged by the standards of other > centuries. It is as though mankind had divided itself between > those who believe in human omnipotence (who think that everything > is possible if one knows how to organize masses for it) and those > for whom powerlessness has become the major experience of their > lives."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The purpose of the European Project was to prove that mankind was not completely powerless after all. If Europe could set up a new world order that would prevent the "sheer insanity" of another world war, then the European Project would succeed. This lead to the Treaty of Rome in 1957, and eventually to the formation of the European Union. What we see today is huge centrifugal forces pulling the European Project apart. Whether it's the Brexit referendum in Britain, Marine Le Pen in France, the "True Finns" in Finland, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany, the Golden Dawn party in Greece, the Jobbik party in Hungary, or any of the nationalistic movements in other European countries, what's become clear is that people, particularly young people, have no fear or concerns about the lessons learned in World War II. This is what Generational Dynamics tells us always happens. In the last century, there were two world wars that destroyed Europe. The first World War was also devastating for Russia and the Mideast, while the second World War was also devastating for Japan and the Pacific. However, there were other massive wars in the last century, in Asia, in Africa, in the Americas. These wars of the last century are not well remembered by Americans, since Americans were not as heavily involved, but they're well remembered by the people of the countries that fought in them. And that's just the last century. If you look at the earlier centuries -- the 1800s, the 1700s, the 1600s, the 1500s, and so forth -- there were also massive wars in Asia, Europe, the Mideast, Africa and the Americas in those centuries as well. No century has ever escaped this. The point is that these huge, massive wars have not yet begun to occur in this century, and so people, especially young people, have come to believe that they never will. And yet, there's absolutely no hope of avoiding them. Anyone can see that the world has become increasingly unstable in the last 10 or 15 years, and that countries around the world have become increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic. It's like the world is a pressure cooker, ready to explode. France enjoyed "La Belle Époque" starting in 1871, with advances in the arts rather than wars. That was the "Old World Order" that Hannah Arendt was talking about in the quote above. And yet, World War I exploded in 1914 completely without warning, when a high school student decided to shoot an Archduke of another country. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hannah Arendt was right -- that powerlessness is the major experience of our lives. Politicians are powerless to stop the flow of generations, as young, foolish generations displace older, traumatized, experienced generations, and repeat all the mistakes of the past, once again, over and over. BBC and Washington Post and AFP Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Marine Le Pen, Front National, François Hollande, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Donald Trump, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Vel d'Hiv, Auschwitz, Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, European Project, La Belle Époque Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-20-2017 (04-18-2017, 08:22 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-17-2017, 06:58 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > John X likes denying concrete facts so as a final factoid just to LOL, Here John X is outright denying that a Budget surplus surplus existed from the late 1990s until 9/11. It was the refusal to fund the war effort with actual spending that caused the return of the deficit. This began immediately after 9/11, 18 months prior to the start of the Iraq war. Also regarding Iraq the political class' delusion that Iraqis valued western "freedom" just like Americans do, insured that we would get bogged down in nation-building and made the insurgency inevitable (had the former Baathists been allowed to keep their posts and allowed to continue administering local government, there wouldn't have been an insurgency). Without that delusion we would have entered Iraq with 500,000 troops rather than the 200,000 that ended up being committed. 21-Apr-17 World View -- Cameroon's president finally caves in, restores internet to E - John J. Xenakis - 04-20-2017 *** 21-Apr-17 World View -- Cameroon's president finally caves in, restores internet to English speakers This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Cameroon's president finally caves in, restores internet to English speakers **** During protests earlier this year, Anglophone protesters used catapult against police in Bamenda, Cameroon (RFI) Cameroon's president Paul Biya on Thursday finally gave in after 93 days and restored internet access to the "Southern Cameroons," the region of Cameroon populated by English-speaking or Anglophone people. Biya shut down the internet to Anglophones in November of last year, following clashes between English-speaking (Anglophone) protesters and police. The protests were over discrimination and marginalization of the Anglophones by the French-speaking (Francophone) majority. The protests were initially led by Anglophone lawyers in the city of Bamenda to protest that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. That demonstration was dispersed by security forces using tear gas. Two weeks later, the demonstrators were joined by Anglophone teachers who were protesting that the government was deploying Francophone teachers teach the French language in Anglophone regions. The government decided was appointing French-speaking teachers and judges who barely understand English to Anglophone schools and courts. Thousands of Anglophone Cameroonians brought coffins to the demonstrations, proclaiming that they were ready to die and be burned in their coffins. The demonstrations turned violent when security forces fired tear gas and live bullets to disperse the demonstrators. At least six protesters were shot dead and hundreds others arrested by security forces. With teachers and lawyers on strike, shutting down the internet was apparently Biya's method of bringing the Anglophones to heel. However, shutting down the internet has been disastrous for Cameroon's economy. It was particularly disastrous for businesses in the Southern Cameroons, which had no internet access, and so could not conduct business. But individuals were hurt as well, since they couldn't pay bills or make online purchases. Shutting down the internet was a really dumb thing to do, but Cameroon's economy has lost some $3.1 million because of the internet blackout, according to the French NGO, Internet sans Frontières (Internet without Borders). Furthermore, with the schools shut because of the teachers' strike, Cameroon was threatened with an aid cutoff from UNESCO. Biya's ending the internet block will not solve the underlying tensions between Anglophones and Francophones, which date back to colonial times when there was a British Cameroon and a French Cameroon. The two colonies were pasted together in what was supposed to be a federal system where the Anglophone and Francophone regions were equal. But, Paul Biya came to power in 1982 and, as usual in African countries, Biya has turned into a dictator. He had hoped that shutting down the internet would make everyone happy and peaceful again, but instead it impoverished and infuriated many people, especially Anglophones. Cameroon Concord and Africa News and Anadolu (31-Mar) Related Articles
**** **** With violence in Venezuela's streets continuing, Maduro confiscates GM factories **** Venezuela continued to be a showcase for the disastrous outcome of every Socialist government in history, as violence in the streets of Venezuela continued on Thursday, leading protesters to clashes with security forces who used tear gas, beatings and other violence. The protesters are demanding that president Nicolás Maduro hold elections so that he can be replaced, but like almost every Socialist leader in history, Maduro prefers to have the streets filled with rivers of blood than give up power. As the economy continues to crash because of his Socialist policies, Maduro is forced to adopt increasingly desperate measures. Last month, he ordered the arrest of bakers because there wasn't enough break available. Previously, Maduro ordered the jailing of factory owners, but on Thursday, Maduro's Socialist government seized a General Motors plant in Valencia. GM sales have been down in Venezuela because the Socialist government requires that they be paid for in near-worthless bolivar currency, rather than dollars. GM says that it will fight the seizure in Venezuelan courts, but since Maduro controls the courts, GM is unlikely to succeed. Venezuela's Socialist government has nationalized a number of US companies, or otherwise forced them out of business. Other companies that have cut back or ceased doing business in Venezuela include Kimberly-Clark, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor Company, Clorox Co. and Bridgestone Americas. It has been a policy of Socialist Venezuela to destroy as much of economy as possible, in order to be able to nationalize businesses. As the old Socialist saying goes, you have to crack a few eggs to make an omelet. As violence increases in the streets, fears are growing that Maduro will call out the army for a full-scale assault on the protesters. However, some reports indicate that there's a growing split within the army, with many soldiers reluctant to attack ordinary Venezuelan citizens including, in some cases, their own family members. Detroit Free Press and Miami Herald and AP Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Paul Biya, Francophones, Anglophones, Southern Cameroons, Internet sans Frontières, Internet without Borders, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, General Motors Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-20-2017 (04-20-2017, 04:15 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > LOL, Here John X is outright denying that a Budget surplus surplus You really are an idiot. First, the graph that I posted is from the St. Louis Fed, not something that I made up. This is in contrast to the fake facts that you make up all the time in your weird rants. Second, the graph that I posted shows a surplus from 1998 to 2001. Apparently you're unable to read a graph. If you knew how to read a graph, then you would know that not only did I not deny that there was a surplus, but in fact the graph I posted clearly depicts a surplus. You shouldn't be commenting on anything with a number if you can't read a graph. Just stick to subjects you learned in your sociology and women's studies courses. Third, what's even more confusing to you is that I wasn't talking about the size of the deficit. I was talking the change in the size of the deficit. Specifically, I was showing you that the deficit started surging in the year 2000. There was still a surplus in 2000, but the size of that surplus was plummetting (which means the same thing as saying that the size of the deficit was surging). So do you understand that concept? There was a surplus in 2000, but it started FALLING in 2000, because of the Nasdaq crash and the recession. The Iraq war had nothing to do with it. I realize that all this math is taxing for you. If you have any friends that know how to read a graph, perhaps you can ask them to explain it to you. Finally, once again, if you look at the blue line on that graph, which shows government outlays, you'll see that it didn't bulge in 2003. The reason for that is that the Bush administration did not incur additional expenses for the Iraq war, which would have implied something like a draft. Instead, they reassigned existing resources on other projects to the Iraq war, thus keeping costs level. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-20-2017 (04-20-2017, 09:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:The Global war on terror started on 9/11 well before the Iraq war. The changes in defense spending began immediately after the attacks so the fact that we went into Iraq would not have changed the fundamental direction of the spending. The mistake that Bush made was trying to borrow money to spend due to the neocon ideology that "hard money" spending is considered evil and the route to tyranny? The above spending policy created the deficit and those decisions were made shortly after 9/11.(04-20-2017, 04:15 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > LOL, Here John X is outright denying that a Budget surplus surplus RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-21-2017 (04-20-2017, 09:57 PM)John J. Xenakis responding to Cynic Hero Wrote: First, the graph that I posted is from the St. Louis Fed, not Generally correct. Some of the additional expenses for the Iraq War, unlike Afghanistan, required a supplementary appropriation, so there was a small increase in spending - small by federal budget standards, anyway - and if you look carefully, there is an appropriately sized uptick in 2003. However, it's tiny compared to the size of the revenue plunge starting in 2000, supporting your underlying point that it was the business cycle that drove the surplus or deficit. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-21-2017 (04-20-2017, 09:57 PM)John J. Xenakis responding to Cynic Hero Wrote: > First, the graph that I posted is from the St. Louis Fed, not (04-21-2017, 11:05 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Generally correct. Some of the additional expenses for the Iraq Thanks for the information. There's one other problem with that graph. If the surplus is really positive in 2000, as the green line shows, then the red line should be above the blue line in the years 2000. The reason that it isn't is because the federal government borrows from the Social Security Trust Fund and other trust funds, and counts those borrowings as income, which is total crap, but what else do we expect from the federal government? I'd like to add a line to that graph that depicts the amount borrowed from trust funds, so that the green line will truly be a value computed from all three of the other lines. I can't find this on the St. Louis Fed site. Do you have any insight into this problem? Incidentally, here's are links to a couple of pages that explain some of this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/30/AR2009033003291.html http://www.craigsteiner.us/articles/16 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=205626 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-21-2017 (04-21-2017, 06:55 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: There's one other problem with that graph. If the surplus is really I'm not sure whether it's the borrowing that would make the lines add up, or the Social Security tax revenue, which also appears to be missing from that graph. I don't have more insight into the St. Louis Fed on this issue, but I have found the usgovernmentspending.com site to be useful. 22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten - John J. Xenakis - 04-21-2017 *** 22-Apr-17 World View -- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten **** Kashmiri students at Rajasthan University (Kashmir Monitor) It seems that hardly a day goes by without the situation in Indian-governed Kashmir becoming worse than the day before. Students studying in colleges in India far from Kashmir are being harassed and beaten by perpetrators described a "nationalist Hindus." At Rajasthan University, six Muslim Kashmiri students were called "terrorists" and assaulted by locals. According to one: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Six of us were assaulted in three separate attacks > that took place at the same time in the market. The attacks seemed > coordinated. They hurled abuses, called us terrorists and said we > throw stones at the army. They told us to go back to Kashmir and > threatened that they won’t let us study here."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The words "said we throw stones at the army" refers to the worsening situation in Kashmir, where separatists are throwing stones at police and army personnel, and security forces are shooting Kashmiris with pellet guns, sometimes blinding them. At another college, Rawal Institute of Technology, female Kashmiri students are being harassed and threatened. According to one student, "The boys used abusive language today and followed Kashmiri girls which led to clashes between Kashmir boys and offenders." I've written enough of these stories about Kashmir to know how emotional the responses to this article will be. Some people will put the blame entirely on the Muslims, or at least on the Kashmiri separatists, and other people will put the blame entirely on the Hindus, or at least on the government security forces. But I'm just reporting an ongoing situation that gets worse almost every day, and is almost certainly going to lead to war. India's Home Affairs Minister Rajnath Singh issued a directive saying that the Kashmiris were part of India's "family," and that: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The Kashmiri youth also contribute in the progress of > India. Action should be taken by the states against those who > target them."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Many Indians blame the "Islamization" of Kashmir by Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakaria said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian occupation forces have launched an all-out war > on Kashmiri students. They have attacked women’s education > institutions as well. A dozen colleges have been attacked, > injuring thousands of students – both boys and > girls."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Whatever the truth is, it's clear that the situation in Kashmir has worsened significantly in the last year, and even worsened significantly in the last couple of weeks. Kashmir Monitor and Kashmir Observer and Express Tribune (Pakistan) Related Articles
**** **** Indians seek solutions and blame intervention from Pakistan and China **** As I've written many times, the situation in Kashmir is on a trend line that's spiraling into full-scale war. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is showing signs of repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947. Indians accuse Pakistan of encouraging the Kashmir violence, and even supporting it with money and weapons. There's little doubt that the accusations are true. After all, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) organization has funded terrorist groups that have attacked targets in both India and Pakistan. And now an opinion writer is blaming China: > [indent]<QUOTE>"While the Chinese claim to have been miffed over the > Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang and Arunachal Pradesh, and have now > given Chinese names to places in that state to buttress their > territorial claims, the reality is that the dragon is keen to have > the status quo changed in Jammu & Kashmir too. Reason: large parts > of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are critical to its new > China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), including land access to > Gwadar port in Balochistan. > > Without the covert Chinese go-ahead to Pakistani aims in J&K, it > is doubtful if an economically and politically isolated country > would have dared change the game in Kashmir Valley. Here’s what’s > new in this round of bloodletting in the Valley. ... > > China may not be overtly keen to promote Pakistan-based jihadis > who may well end up becoming a headache in its own Xinjiang > province, where the Muslim Uighurs are restive. But one thing is > certain: it appears to have decided to prop up the Pakistani deep > state, both to further its own economic interests, and as a way of > containing India. > > Chinese pressure on Pakistan to declare Gilgit-Baltistan as its > fifth province is key to legalizing its highway to Gwadar, which > passes through this area. China has decided that a strong Pakistan > is in its interests – and this has negative consequences for > India, especially in terms of Pakistan’s Kashmir > policy."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's very likely that this accusation is true as well. After all, China is building artificial islands in the South China Sea, and using its vast military power to threaten regions belonging to Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India. So China wouldn't hesitate to subvert Kashmir for its own imagined benefit. The problem is that while these accusations are true, they make no difference. Pakistan, and probably China, have been subverting Kashmir for years, but it had only a transient effect until the last year. What's changed is that the younger generations, with little fear of a new war, are driving the violence. The growing violence in Kashmir is leading to all-out war, and it won't be stopped. One Indian editorial writer is claiming that the problems in Kashmir can be solved, and that there are three solutions:
Of course these "solutions" are completely delusional, though it's good to have them listed. I do wonder if these solutions might have been effective if they had been adopted wholeheartedly starting in the 1970s. At any rate, it's way too late now. Furthermore, with Kashmiri students being harassed and beaten in colleges far away from Kashmir, we're seeing the Kashmir violence begin to spread to other parts of India. This is a new development, and it portends more and more violence this summer. As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, and that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the US, India, Russia and Iran. Times of India and BBC and Daily O (India) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Rajasthan University, Rawal Institute of Technology, Rajnath Singh, Pakistan, Nafees Zakaria, China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on - John J. Xenakis - 04-22-2017 *** 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on 'Earth Day' **** Thanks to fracking, the US carbon emission problem is taking care of itself, with energy carbon emissions down by 25% since 2007. (AEI) Hundreds of thousands of scientists in 600 cities around the world held "March for Science" marches to make largely incoherent demands for more money for pretty much anything. The universal complaint was Donald Trump and climate change, but Obamacare and various science projects were also mentioned. In other countries, there were other complaints. In Canada, scientists to complain to Liberal leader Justin Trudeau for cutting back on funding for science projects. According to Lori Burrows, professor and senior scientist, McMaster University: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Despite the [Justin] Trudeau government's promise of > sunnier ways for science, we are still waiting for those rays to > break through the storm clouds."<END QUOTE>[/indent] So I gather from professor Burrows that Justin Trudeau must be as bad as Donald Trump. Tsk, tsk. Media coverage was as ridiculous as ever. Here's what I heard from Robert Young, professor of coastal geology at Western Carolina University (my transcription): > [indent]<QUOTE>"I don't think the people who need to meet a scientist > will be at this march nor will those people be experiencing the > media coverage of the march. The problem that we have, at least > in the United States, is that we all get our information and our > news from different sources these days. So the folks living in > rural America and working class America, that we would be like to > reach in a march for science, and the folks we would like to > explain how important science is, they're not gonna be watching > the news outlets that will be covering the march in a favorable > way. They're not gonna watch National Public Radio, or the BBC, > or read the New York Times or the Washington Post or the Guardian. > > They're going to get their information and their coverage from Fox > News and from conservative blogosphere. And those outlets will > cover the march in a completely different way in a negative > connotation."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Really? The problem is that "rural America and working class America" doesn't listen to left-wing media sources -- NPR, BBC, NYT, WaPost and the Guardian?? That's why these people are marching? This is so idiotic that it's hard to stop laughing. If there are any students at Western Carolina University reading this, please inform Prof. Robert Young that father does not always know best and that he sounds like an idiot. The real problem is people in the mainstream media and in colleges believe every bit of nonsense that they hear on NPR, etc., and think that everything else is "fake news." So let's talk about climate change, and talk about some "facts." CBS and Canadian Broadcasting and Deutsche Welle Related Articles **** **** Climate change -- a self-correcting problem **** The climate scientists don't like to talk about this, but climate change has been self-correcting. Since 2007, the US has reduced CO2 emissions by about 25%, mainly due to fracking, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That's how technological innovation always works. When a problem occurs, somebody figures out a way to make money out of solving it, and the problem gets solved. This needs no help from the government, as shown by the Solyndra disaster. Everyone is criticizing president Trump for backing out of the Paris climate change agreement. Why? If we're already dramatically reducing carbon emissions, why should America even care about the Paris agreement? The answer, of course, is about money. No one seriously believes that any of the huge climate change proposals will actually do anything to reduce carbon emissions. The climate scientists want America to pay ever more money into their projects. Like Saturday's "March for Science," everything is about political power and money. Fracking has not yet brought about carbon emissions in other countries, but we can feel certain that new technologies will come along that will solve the problem in every country, as it has in the United States, and that government will have nothing to do with it. AEI and Energy Information Administration **** **** Climate change predictions **** So-called scientists talk endlessly that "climate change is caused by human activity." OK, so let's grant that. Climate change is caused by human activity. Those are the "facts" that scientists claim have been proven. Next we hear that the earth's temperature will rise 2 degrees by 2100. That's not a "proven scientific fact." That's an unproven prediction, and it's a political prediction at that. There is no science that proves this figure. The figure is based on straight-line extrapolations of recent trends, which cannot be proven or even justified. As developer of Generational Dynamics, one could say that I'm in the "prediction business." My web site has almost 4,000 articles since 2003, containing hundreds of Generational Dynamics predictions, all of which are coming true or are trending true. None has been shown to be wrong. All these articles and predictions are still available on my web site to anyone wanting to prove me wrong -- and several people have tried and failed. So I'm one of the best experts around on predictions. That's not true for climate change and environment predictions. History is flooded with hundreds of them from "respected" scientists, many of which have turned out wrong and even spectacularly wrong. My favorite was the prediction that I read in far left-wing magazine Ramparts Magazine in 1970. The prediction was that the oceans were becoming so polluted that by 1980 the world's oceans would be covered by a layer of algae. It didn't happen. One of the most respected, endorsed by as many scientists in 1972 as endorse climate change today, was the "Limits to Growth" by the Club of Rome. The report said that the world would grind to a halt because of pollution within a few decades. Some time later, it turned out that their predictions had a flaw based on their computer program written in Fortran. Anyway, their predictions haven't come true. And of course in the 1970s, the problem was going to be "global cooling." Within twenty years, it had turned into "global warming." There are hundreds of documented environmental and climate change predictions by respected scientists that have turned out to be wrong. How stupid do you have to be to believe more climate change predictions when so many in the past have been spectacularly wrong? So yes, climate change really is a hoax, even if you assume that all the science that proves that human activity is true. All the predictions that come after that are not science -- they're guesses, based on unjustifiable extrapolations. As I said, I'm an expert on making predictions, so I can tell you some places where the climate change scientists are making faulty assumptions. First, they're assuming that there will be no world wars. There have been world wards every century for millennia, and this century will be no different. As I've written in the past, I expect a world war in the next ten years or so. Nuclear weapons will be used. Lots of factories and power infrastructure will be destroyed. How will that affect climate change? The climate scientists are afraid to talk about that subject, so I'll take a guess. If a lot of infrastructure is destroyed, then I would guess that carbon emissions will fall dramatically. Of course, climate scientists don't want to talk about that. Second, climate scientists are completely ignoring technological developments. We already discussed how fracking has reduced US carbon emissions by 25%, something the climate scientists would rather eat mud than ever talk about. Well, we can see all kinds of technological developments on the horizon that may well have application to carbon emissions and climate change. For example, biotechnology might produce an organism that eats carbon dioxide the way a tree does. Or we may develop space capsules that can deliver millions of tons of carbon dioxide into space. Or computerized robots may be able to clean things up that humans can't. How will these technological developments affect that 2 degree temperature prediction? Well climate scientists don't know, and I don't know, but history has shown that some solution will emerge. There's an almost exact historical parallel to the climate change problem that climate scientists hate to even think about. Think of all the cars in New York City, and imagine if those cars were all horses. That's the problem that all big cities had in the 1890s. A horse produces between 7 and 15 kilos of manure daily. In New York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced nearly 1,200 metric tons of horse manure per day, which all had to be swept up and disposed of. In addition, each horse produces nearly a liter of urine per day, which also ended up on the streets. Also, many horses died each day, and their corpses had to be removed. There was a big international urban planning conference in New York City in 1898. The major topic that dominated the conference was not housing, land use, economic development or infrastructure. It was horse manure. The participants left in disgust. The crisis was resolved quickly with new technology: the automobile. By 1912 there were more cars than horses on the road in New York City. By 1920, the problem had all but disappeared, with no government intervention. The same thing will happen with the climate change problem. The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 Related Articles
**** **** Rural America and Working Class America **** Let's circle back to the real problem in America today, that people like Prof. Robert Young of Western Carolina University are totally contemptuous of "rural America and working class America." People like Young -- and there are plenty of them -- are completely delusional. The funny thing is that the working class people can sense what's going on, because they have to do real work for a living. When you have climate scientists marching through Washington DC demanding money and claiming that they know what they earth's temperature will be in 2100, when they can't accurately predict the temperature two weeks from now, these worker class people know intuitively that they're being mocked. Even after all these months, people like Young -- and there are plenty of them -- don't have the vaguest clue how Donald Trump was elected president. It's really quite amazing that Young could say anything as stupid as what's quoted above, but that's how people at NPR, BBC, NYT, WaPost and the Guardian, and that's also how most college professors think these days. The funny thing is, as I reported above, scientists in Canada are just as angry at the ultra-liberal Justin Trudeau as American scientists are at Donald Trump. If Justin Trudeau doesn't think Canada should spend money on climate change, then why should Donald Trump think that America should do so? In the end, climate scientists don't really care about climate change at all. All they care about is how much money they can get from taxpayers. And since it's the "working class" people who supply all that tax money, they should be more respectful of these people, and far less contemptuous. Related Articles KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Earth Day, March for Science, Canada, Justin Trudeau, Lori Burrows, McMaster University, Western Carolina University, Robert Young, Energy Information Administration, EIA, Club of Rome, Limits to Growth Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 23-Apr-17 World View -- Scientists worldwide hold an international March for Money on - Warren Dew - 04-23-2017 (04-22-2017, 09:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One of the most respected, endorsed by as many scientists in 1972 as I remember that well, though I didn't read it until 1981. Their problem wasn't Fortran, it was that their models didn't take into account any negative feedback loops; obviously with exponential growth, finite resources, and no changes in efficiency, the resources get used up sooner rather than later. I didn't have a computer at the time, so I duplicated their results with a simplified model using pen and paper. I then added some equations to model pollution control and efficiency improvements as resources dwindled, and the problem went away - as it indeed did in the decades since. An unexpected result of my model was that there would eventually be a backlash against environmentalism, but that part is coming true too. |