Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-14-2016 (06-14-2016, 11:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It makes sense. The Italo-Abyssinian War was an Awakening-Era war That's a good analysis. However, I have to go back in time about ten years, and return to the perennial argument of that time. My response is:
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 06-14-2016 (06-14-2016, 12:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(06-14-2016, 11:35 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It makes sense. The Italo-Abyssinian War was an Awakening-Era war Russia/Soviet Union -- I think of the ferocity of the Thirty Years' War, a long Crisis war that did cultural damage that may have even contributed to the Holocaust. Protestants and Catholics who hated each other united against another group -- the Jews. it was only a matter of time. That's duration. I see Crisis eras as waves of danger, sometimes one (American Civil War), sometimes two (Great Depression, WWII for America). Three? In such I see the Russian Revolution and Civil War, Stalin's seizure of power from Trotsky et alia with the subsequent forced collectivization and the Great Purge, and finally the Great Patriotic War, a Crisis war imposed from outside that Stalin blundered into. The Soviet Union waged its war against Nazi Germany as a full-blown Crisis war with Crisis-like ferocity. NEP and the lull between Stalin's purges and the start of Operation Barbarossa were abortive respites. In Germany I can see three waves of transformative Crisis and danger -- the economic meltdown corresponding to the rise of Hitler, World War II, and the postwar chaos that led to the division of Germany between the Federal Republic in the west and south and the communist "Democratic" Republic in the east, with the Berlin Airlift and the establishment of the German Democratic Republic as the end games. One phase begins with the economic crash and ends with the Night of the Long Knives; the second wave of Crisis begins with the diplomatic bullying of Austria and ends with the Fuhrer blowing his brains out; the third begins with the practical end of the war, contains the legal judgment of surviving top Nazis, and ends with the establishment of a stable situation that undeniably resembles a 1T. It's all a matter of interpretation. 15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative - John J. Xenakis - 06-14-2016 *** 15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues **** The Sun (London) endorsed Brexit option to 'leave the EU', as stocks sold off and German bond yields went negative (ZeroHedge) The interest rate paid by Germany's Bundesbank (central bank) if you deposit money with them for ten years has gone negative. That means that if you deposit money with them, then you'll get less money back, instead of more money, as would happen in "normal" times. That's the meaning of the announcement that the yield (interest rate) on Germany's 10-year bund (bond) fell briefly on Tuesday to -0.033%, before closing at the end of the day at -0.028%. It also means that if the Bundesbank lends money to someone, then they'll pay you to take their money, rather than charge you. Of course, ordinary citizens can't borrow money from the central bank, but regional banks can. The Bundesbank wants to encourage regional banks to borrow money, and then lend that money out to businesses to stimulate the economy. That's the reasoning behind negative interest rates. Germany is just the most recent country whose central bank has adopted negative interest rates on 10 year bonds. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have done the same. Other countries still have positive interest rates for 10 year bonds, but have negative interest rates on shorter term bonds. (As a general rule, a shorter-term loan pays a higher interest rate than a longer-term loan because a shorter-term loan is considered less risky.) Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, France, Denmark and Belgium have negative interest rates on 4 or 5 year bonds, while Finland has negative interest rates on 3 year bonds. The yields on UK gilts (bonds) are still positive, but they fell to 1.18% on 10 year gilts on Tuesday, a record low in more than 3 centuries of trading. All of these countries' central banks are adopting negative interest rates in the hope of inflating their currencies and promoting growth. Instead, growth is flat, and the currencies are increasingly deflationary. Generational Dynamics predicted that all of this would happen, as I've been writing since 2003. Mainstream economists have repeatedly been wrong about all this, time after time. In fact, in the early 2000s, when interest rates were decreasing to around 2%, mainstream economists began predicting inflation or hyperinflation. They've continued predicting that high inflation would begin next quarter for quarter after quarter, and they've been wrong every time. Mainstream economists have consistently been clueless about what's going on. The fact is that Keynesian economics is dead wrong because it doesn't take generational theory into account. Monetarist economics is dead wrong because it doesn't take generational theory into account. Austrian school economics is dead wrong because it doesn't take generational theory into account. None of these branches has predicted correctly for at least 15 years. As I've pointed out many, many times, mainstream economists didn't predict and can't explain the tech bubble of the 1990s, didn't predict and can't explain the huge credit and real estable bubble of the mid-2000s decade, and the real estate collapse and credit crisis after 2007. In almost all cases, they didn't even know that there'd been a real estate bubble until around 2009, two years after it had started to burst. As I've been writing since 2003, the global financial system is in a deflationary spiral. High inflation and superinflation, which many economists have incorrectly predicted for years, is not going to happen. Instead, deflation is growing and will continue to grow. Central bankers are finally beginning to grasp this, which is why they're adopting negative interest rates as a move of total desperation to stop the deflationary spiral. Generational Dynamics predicts that the world financial system is headed for a global panic and crash, with 100% certainty. Deutsche Welle and CNBC and Bloomberg **** **** Brexit: The polls versus the bookies **** There was a global selloff of stocks on Tuesday. This is consistent with the falling yields (interest rates) on bonds. When people sell stocks and put the money into bonds, then by the law of supply and demand, the price of the bonds goes up, which means that the yields go down. Since stocks are considered to be more risky than bonds, some analysts are calling Tuesday's actions a "rush for safety." Investors who fear that stock prices will fall can sell their stocks and use the money to purchase bonds, even at negative interest rates, just so their money will be safe. Many analysts are blaming this rush to safety on the fact that on June 23, UK citizens will be voting on the "Brexit" referendum, to decide whether the UK should leave the European Union. What's happened in the last couple of weeks is that a number of new polls have come out indicating that more and more Britons are favoring the "leave" option. A Guardian/ICM poll gave "leave" a 7 point lead on Monday, while a Times/YouGov poll gave "leave" a 5 point lead. Many investors believe that a vote to leave the EU will cause financial chaos, at least in the short run. According to analysts, this is the reason for the "rush to safety." However, many people believe that the polls are wrong. Many people are reluctant to admit to pollsters that they're going to vote for a "politically incorrect" choice, so they tell pollsters one thing and then vote the other way in the privacy of the voting booth. So it's perhaps not surprising the bookies and betting firms are placing a 60% or better chance that voters will choose the "remain" option in the Brexit referendum vote. However, only a month ago, bookies were placing an 80% probability on "remain." So although the bookies still favor "remain," the probability has been falling, and may go below 50% by referendum day. Bloomberg and Reuters and Bloomberg and ZeroHedge KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Germany, Bundesbank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Brexit Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-15-2016 (06-14-2016, 01:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I think of the ferocity of the Thirty Years' War, a long Crisis You're using a kind of "glob of history" approach which says that if people get angry at each other over a glob of years then it must be a crisis war. If you want to believe that, then you're entitled to do so, but it has no relationship whatsoever to either S&H generational theory or Generational Dynamics. (I'm always bemused by the fact that there are people who spent years in the FTF forum, but who completely disbelieve the FTF theory.) Let's take a more recent glob of years -- the Mideast since 1948. Using your glob of history approach, you could say that the Mideast has been in a crisis war for 70 years. After all, you've had one brutal war after another -- the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs, the 1953 Egyptian revolution, the 1967 and 1973 wars between Israel and Egypt, the Syrian revolution, the Syria-Lebanon war, the Iran/Iraq war, the Israel-Hezbollah war, the Fatah-Hamas war, the Israel-Gaza war, and others. So according to your reasoning, you can glob all of those wars together and call them one big crisis war. That's nice, but it bears no relationship whatsoever to generational theory. What you have to do is drill down into the individual conflicts. The Jew-Arab war was a crisis war, the Syrian revolution and Syria-Lebanon war were crisis wars, the Iran/Iraq war was a crisis war, and pretty much all the rest are a bunch of non-crisis wars. If you took the 30 years war and drilled down in the same way, then you'd find that the 30 years war wasn't one long crisis war at all, but a collection of crisis and non-crisis wars that spread across Europe. (06-14-2016, 01:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It's all a matter of interpretation. In the last 15 years, I've done hundreds of these generational analyses, maybe by this time into the thousands. And I can say with absolute certainty that there's no "interpretation" about it. In order to evaluate a war or collection of wars, you have to look at multiple historical sources. If you can't tell whether a given war is a crisis war or non-crisis war, then it doesn't mean that "it's a matter of interpretation." What it means is that you haven't looked at enough historical sources to make an unambiguous determination. This kind of evaluation process is non-trivial. It takes a lot of work. I've done this hundreds of times over the years, and I can tell you that this evaluation process has never failed to produce an unambiguous result. Furthermore, these methodologies are backed up by theoretical advances in generational theory that I've documented on my web site and include from time to time in my World View articles. When I first started out in the FTF forum, the usual suspects used to attack me by saying that I'm not qualified to write about these subjects because I haven't read enough history books. So today I'm on the other side of that criticism. You can't evaluate a war or collection of wars unless you've looked at numerous sources, usually at least 10 or 20 sources, though for the 30 years war it would probably need even more than that. After that, there's little or no need for "interpretation." RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 06-15-2016 JohnX your theory in my opinion is incorrect because I can give several examples from history. Take the French revolution in 1789 which led to the collapse of the existing geopolitical framework resulting in an Austrian and Prussian invasion of France in 1792. To respond against this attack, the french instituted levee in masses. While the majority of the french people enrolled into the levies, a minority took up arms against the government, resulting in a bloody civil war throughout 1793 and 1794 which devastated several regions especially the vendee. At the same time, the government itself collapsed into several rounds of purges culminating in the reign of terror. By 1794 french armies has turned the tide at the front lines resulting in prussia suing for peace in 1795 and war ending with the capitulation of Austria in 1797. Yet according to your theory the french in 1797 should have been focused on consolidating the results of the war and should have been pursuing conservative policies abroad. Internally the reign of terror according to generational dynamics should have inoculated the french against demagogic politics. But that was NOT what happened, how can GD explain how Napoleon was able to convince the french to first make him leader then to mobilize and attempt the conquest of Europe. All of this was after the bloodbath of 1792 to 1797. The war that napoleon initiated did not truly end until 1815. Another example can be from ancient times during the first phase of the peloponnesian war from 431 BC to 421 BC; there was first the ravaging of Attica by spartan armies, the great plague of Athens, the Athenians adopting an offensive war strategy, the institution of collective punishment and genocide against rebellious cities in the Athenian empire, the offensive strategy turning into a stalemate, finally the Spartans and Athenians signing the peace of Nicias. How than can GD explain how Alcibiades was able to convince the Athenians to invade Sicily and restart the war, which then lasted until 404 BC. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-15-2016 I haven't looked at the French Revolution in a long time, but a quick read of the Wikipedia article reveals the following: Quote:> The stalemate was broken in the summer of 1794 with dramatic That reads like a crisis war climax in 1794. So the First Turning Recovery Era began in 1795. You seem to agree with that. After that, the Directory came to power: Quote:> The Directory denounced the arbitrary executions of the Reign of That reads like pretty standard Recovery Era stuff, desperately trying to recover from the war and imposing new rules and institutions to prevent anything similar from ever happening again. After that, Napoleon went on to conquer other countries in order to consolidate the French Revolution. Each of these battles has to be analyzed separately to determine whether that individual battle was a crisis or non-crisis war. By the way, the invasion of Russia was a non-crisis war for both France and Russia. ** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.book.tolstoy.htm I don't even know what you mean by a sentence like "How than can GD explain how Alcibiades was able to convince the Athenians to invade Sicily and restart the war, which then lasted until 404 BC." Lots of wars, such as the Korean War, start in the First Turning, but they're non-crisis wars. How did Charles de Gaulle convince the French to invade Vietnam after WW II, which then lasted until 1954? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 06-15-2016 (06-15-2016, 11:15 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(06-14-2016, 01:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I think of the ferocity of the Thirty Years' War, a long Crisis The Russian civil war between the Reds and Whites was genocidal; whoever won was going to slaughter millions. I see the Russian Whites similarly vicious as the Bolsheviki when they got the chance. Take the ferocity of the American Civil War, which also represented a Crisis war in which the opposing sides split into hostile and exclusive camps -- but with no semblance of mercy upon either side upon victory. The collectivization of Soviet agriculture, even if not strictly speaking a war, caused mass death characteristic of a genocidal war. The Soviet Union conducted its war against Nazi Germany with consummate ferocity. This is at the minimum 28 years (more if one goes to the collapse of the Imperial Russian Armed Forces during World War I) of Crisis Era ferocity either ongoing or waiting to strike. It is freakish tragedy, and it may be nearly distinct to Russia. Saecula have lasted a century, and while Crisis Eras are usually short, this particular one is not far from a quarter of a saeculum. Be thankful that you were not a Russian or Soviet citizen between 1915 and 1945! Quote:Yours is take a more recent glob of years -- the Mideast since 1948. All modern war is brutal. Not all of it is genocidal. The establishment of Israel in 1948 looks like the end of a Crisis Era, at least for Jewish survivors of the Holocaust, as political institutions of the State of Israel crystallized rapidly. The 1950s were undeniably 1T in Israel. The Suez Crisis is definitely a 1T war in Israel, and the Six-Day War is ambiguously near the end of a 1T and the start of a 2T in Israel. The 1973 war between Israel and the Arab World was a 2T war in Israel. I do not follow intellectual trends of the Islamic world closely. War forces its own recognition. Crises in the Islamic world are hard to figure unless the hallmarks of a Crisis exist. Is the Iran-Iraq war a WWI-style war of attrition or is it so close to the end of 3T of Iraq that the invasion of Kuwait begins a Crisis Era for Iraq that has lasted nearly a quarter century? Of course if ISIS dies (may such happen soon!) then the Crisis Era could be over in Iraq. Quote:So according to your reasoning, you can glob all of those wars I recognize Russia between 1917 and 1945 and Iraq between enduring a freakish succession of horrors. Wars and persecutions do not exist to fit theories; theories exist to fit wars and persecutions. [/quote]What you have to do is drill down into the individual conflicts. The Jew-Arab war was a crisis war, the Syrian revolution and Syria-Lebanon war were crisis wars, the Iran/Iraq war was a crisis war, and pretty much all the rest are a bunch of non-crisis wars.[/quote] The Arabs and Israelis may not have been on the same timetable. If you took the 30 years war and drilled down in the same way, then you'd find that the 30 years war wasn't one long crisis war at all, but a collection of crisis and non-crisis wars that spread across Europe. (06-14-2016, 01:51 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It's all a matter of interpretation. In the last 15 years, I've done hundreds of these generational analyses, maybe by this time into the thousands. And I can say with absolute certainty that there's no "interpretation" about it. In order to evaluate a war or collection of wars, you have to look at multiple historical sources. If you can't tell whether a given war is a crisis war or non-crisis war, then it doesn't mean that "it's a matter of interpretation." What it means is that you haven't looked at enough historical sources to make an unambiguous determination. This kind of evaluation process is non-trivial. It takes a lot of work. I've done this hundreds of times over the years, and I can tell you that this evaluation process has never failed to produce an unambiguous result.[/quote] Classification of historical events is often tricky even if one agrees on the realities of those events. The Thirty Years may have had some mobility in its worst horrors, as is true of all Crisis wars. If this is not Crisis, then what is? (Wikipedia, on the horrors of the Thirty Years' War: Marauding soldiers, Vranx, 1647, Deutsches Historisches Museum Berlin The war ranks with the worst famines and plagues as the greatest medical catastrophe in modern European history.[74][75] Lacking good census information, historians have extrapolated the experience of well-studied regions.[76] John Theibault agrees with the conclusions in Günther Franz's Der Dreissigjährige Krieg und das Deutsche Volk (1940), that population losses were great but varied regionally (ranging as high as 50%) and says his estimates are the best available.[77] The war killed soldiers and civilians directly, caused famines, destroyed livelihoods, disrupted commerce, postponed marriages and childbirth, and forced large numbers of people to relocate. The reduction of population in the German states was typically 25% to 40%.[78] Some regions were affected much more than others.[79] For example, Württemberg lost three-quarters of its population during the war.[80] In the territory of Brandenburg, the losses had amounted to half, while in some areas, an estimated two-thirds of the population died.[81] The male population of the German states was reduced by almost half.[82] The population of the Czech lands declined by a third due to war, disease, famine, and the expulsion of Protestant Czechs.[83][84] Much of the destruction of civilian lives and property was caused by the cruelty and greed of mercenary soldiers.[85] Villages were especially easy prey to the marauding armies. Those that survived, like the small village of Drais near Mainz, would take almost a hundred years to recover. The Swedish armies alone may have destroyed up to 2,000 castles, 18,000 villages, and 1,500 towns in Germany, one-third of all German towns.[86] The war caused serious dislocations to both the economies and populations of central Europe, but may have done no more than seriously exacerbate changes that had begun earlier.[87][88] Also, some historians contend that the human cost of the war may actually have improved the living standards of the survivors.[89] According to Ulrich Pfister, Germany was one of the richest countries in Europe per capita in 1500, but ranked far lower in 1600. Then, it recovered during the 1600–1660 period, in part thanks to the demographic shock of the Thirty Years' War. A peasant begs for mercy in front of a burning farm Pestilence of several kinds raged among combatants and civilians in Germany and surrounding lands from 1618 to 1648. Many features of the war spread disease. These included troop movements, the influx of soldiers from foreign countries, and the shifting locations of battle fronts. In addition, the displacement of civilian populations and the overcrowding of refugees into cities led to both disease and famine. Information about numerous epidemics is generally found in local chronicles, such as parish registers and tax records, that are often incomplete and may be exaggerated. The chronicles do show that epidemic disease was not a condition exclusive to war time, but was present in many parts of Germany for several decades prior to 1618.[90] When the Imperial and Danish armies clashed in Saxony and Thuringia during 1625 and 1626, disease and infection in local communities increased. Local chronicles repeatedly referred to "head disease", "Hungarian disease", and a "spotted" disease identified as typhus. After the Mantuan War, between France and the Habsburgs in Italy, the northern half of the Italian peninsula was in the throes of a bubonic plague epidemic (Italian Plague of 1629–1631). During the unsuccessful siege of Nuremberg, in 1632, civilians and soldiers in both the Imperial and Swedish armies succumbed to typhus and scurvy. Two years later, as the Imperial army pursued the defeated Swedes into southwest Germany, deaths from epidemics were high along the Rhine River. Bubonic plague continued to be a factor in the war. Beginning in 1634, Dresden, Munich, and smaller German communities such as Oberammergau recorded large numbers of plague casualties. In the last decades of the war, both typhus and dysentery had become endemic in Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War Quote: Maybe I should have referred to classification instead of interpretation, interpretation following from classification. One can see patterns in history even if one does not know the whole history (think of Arnold Toynbee, whom I respect greatly even if I recognize his limitations as he did; after all, what did Socrates say of the true wise person? He knows that he is ignorant!). But neither of us is close to having the full knowledge of history. The Thirty Years' War ended much like the end of a typical Crisis Era with a formal treaty and a "never again" attitude toward its horrors. Conformity would prevail in all areas affected by the war-ending settlements, and political systems would crystallize rapidly. (I am tempted to believe that the Crisis Era in the wake of World War II ends in 1948 and not 1945, with the mostly-clear division between the Soviet Bloc and the West after the February coup in Czechoslovakia, the failure of a Communist coup in Finland, the Berlin Airlift, the establishment of the German Federal Republic and a communist government in the Soviet zone of Germany, the break by Tito with Stalin, and the collapse of the Communist insurgency ion the Greek Civil War. Much still happens in 1948, but history freezes in Europe. Such is the end of a Crisis Era and the beginning of a 1T. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-15-2016 I'm not saying that the wars you're describing did not occur, or that they weren't horrors. I'm only saying they're not all crisis wars, and that even non-crisis wars are horrors. For example, S&H identifies WW I as a non-crisis war, and yet you have the Battle of the Somme and the Battle of Verdun. As another example, Mao's Communist Revolution climaxed in 1949, but it was followed by the Great Leap Forward and the Great Cultural Revolution. Both of these were horrors that killed tens or perhaps hundreds of millions of people through famine and executions. So you could say that China's crisis war began with the Long March in 1934 and ended with Mao's death in 1976, so it was a 42-year crisis war. But it wasn't a 42-year crisis war. It was a non-crisis war from 1934 to 1945, then it was a crisis war that climaxed in 1949, and then the the Great Leap Forward and the Great Cultural Revolution were Recovery Era / Awakening Era events. So it's never enough to say that "it was a horrible war, so it must be a crisis war." Non-crisis wars can be horrible too. What matters is public mood, not whether the war is horrible. 16-Jun-16 World View -- ASEAN makes humiliating South China Sea reversal - John J. Xenakis - 06-15-2016 *** 16-Jun-16 World View -- ASEAN makes humiliating South China Sea reversal under pressure from China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** ASEAN makes humiliating South China Sea reversal under pressure from China **** Silly group picture of foreign ministers at Tuesday's ASEAN meeting purporting to portray unity (AFP) Foreign ministers at the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), issued a statement on Tuesday criticizing China's actions in the South China Sea, though without directly naming China: [indent]<QUOTE>"We expressed our serious concerns over recent and ongoing developments, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and which may have the potential to undermine peace, security and stability in the South China Sea. ... We emphasized the importance of non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities, including land reclamation, which may raise tensions in the South China Sea. We stressed the importance of maintaining peace, security, stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Within hours, apparently under pressure from China, Malaysia's foreign ministry announced that the ASEAN statement was being withdrawn" [indent]<QUOTE>"We have to retract the media statement by the ASEAN foreign ministers... as there are urgent amendments to be made."<END QUOTE>[/indent] However, a day later, neither Malaysia nor any other ASEAN member has issued an updated statement, or explained what the "urgent amendments" are. This is a major embarrassment for ASEAN. If they issue a new statement with the South China Sea language watered down or missing, then the media will say that ASEAN is a China puppet. China has been following Hitler's example by annexing regions of the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia. ASEAN has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Of these ten nations, Cambodia has been China's most reliable ally. At a 2012 meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Cambodia vetoed attempts to even discuss the South China Sea issues. That's easy enough for Cambodia, since China isn't confiscating any region belonging to Cambodia. For a long time, Laos sided with Vietnam on the issue, but last month, Laos flip-flopped and sided with China. That's also easy enough for Laos, for the same reason as Cambodia. Singapore has been trying to act as a mediator between China and the other countries, but the withdrawal of the original ASEAN statement apparently has angered Singapore, as Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan walked out of a press conference he was co-chairing with China's foreign minister, Wang Yi. Laos will be hosting the next ASEAN meeting in July, and fireworks are expected. The Star (Myanmar) and The Diplomat and AFP **** **** Obama administration reevaluates plans for Afghanistan troop withdrawal **** U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter told a meeting at Nato headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday the Obama administration is reevaluating its previous plans to withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. There are currently 9,800 American troops in Afghanistan. The plan was to reduce that level to 5,500 by the end of 2016, but now that plan is apparently about to be changed, much to the surprise of no one. This new announcement comes just four days after another administration reversal. ( "11-Jun-16 World View -- In a reversal, Obama allows US troops in Afghanistan in combat roles" ) Here's what President Obama said in a speech in December 2009, just one week before he was scheduled to leave to accept his Nobel Peace Prize. He referred to a "review" of the situation in Afghanistan that his administrations had been conducting: [indent]<QUOTE>"This review is now complete. And as Commander-in-Chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home. These are the resources that we need to seize the initiative, while building the Afghan capacity that can allow for a responsible transition of our forces out of Afghanistan.<END QUOTE>[/indent] Obama was bitterly criticized by military analysts for setting an 18-month deadline, and of course the analysts were right and Obama was dead wrong. Obama has been forced to backtrack on his 18-month commitment multiple times, and Wednesday's speech by Ash Carter indicates that the next flip-flop is about to occur. When Obama took office in 2008, he had expected to be able to direct the American withdrawal from Iraq and then quickly win in Afghanistan. Those promises are in shambles, as are all Obama's policies for Afghanistan and the Mideast. This is what happens when we elect a president with absolutely no clue what's going on in the world, and it looks like it's going to happen again. Washington Post and Washington Times KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Vivian Balakrishnan, Nato, Afghanistan, Ash Carter Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-Jun-16 World View -- UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying War is over - John J. Xenakis - 06-16-2016 *** 17-Jun-16 World View -- UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' **** Children in Yemen war zone (Reuters) The United Arab Emirates' involvement in more than a year of war in Yemen is "practically over", a top diplomat was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Up until late 2014, Yemen had been governed by a government closely allied with Saudi Arabia. In late 2014, the Iran-backed Shia Houthi militias from northwest Yemen moved south and took control of the capital city Sanaa, and then continue to move south, capturing a number of cities. 15 months ago, on March 26 of last year, Saudi Arabia announced that a 10-country coalition, led by the Saudis, would "free Sanaa and the rest of the northern cities" from Houthi control. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has one of the best-equipped militaries in the region, and has been a major contributor to the Saudi-led coalition. However, the UAE have suffered numerous losses in the past year. 80 UAE soldiers have been killed, including four pilots killed in two separate helicopter crashes this week. In September, 45 UAE troops were killed by a Houthi missile attack, marking the deadliest day for the UAE military in its 44-year history. In March, the Saudis announced that it would 'end major combat operations' in Yemen, claiming that they've met most of their objectives. However, most observers consider the war to have been a failure. The Houthis are still in control of Sanaa, while other parts of the country have gone back and forth between control of the two sides. Furthermore, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has made strong gains in the last year, and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is establishing a presence. UAE's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, gave a speech saying "Our standpoint today is clear: war is over for our troops; we’re monitoring political arrangements, empowering Yemenis in liberated areas." He then elaborated online: [indent]<QUOTE>"[The UAE will remain] a capable and honest ally alongside Riyadh in the military and political realm. This is a partnership that was reinforced by the Yemen crisis and it is essential for the future. The Riyadh-Abu Dhabi axis will emerge out of this crisis with more strength and effectiveness, and the strategic requirements of the region make this imperative. Responsibility lies with the Yemenis - of all their components, to build bridges of communication and to reach an agreement on the state and its institutions. A spirit of national responsibility is needed for success."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Most of this appears to be wishful thinking, because the outcome has been a disaster for both Saudi Arabia and UAE. The Saudis have received international condemnation for the humanitarian disaster in Yemen, and yet the Houthis are still in control of Sanaa and much of Yemen. It appears to be at least a partial victory for Iran, since Iran has reportedly provided the Houthis with weapons and other support. However, if it's a victory at all then it's a Pyrrhic victory because Yemen has been practically destroyed by the fighting. It may be that the real victors are the two jihadist groups, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Both organizations have taken advantage of the chaos to gain territory. However, although AQAP is firmly enmeshed in Yemen's tribal networks, ISIS is perceived as foreign. Despite UAE's announcement, fighting is continuing in Yemen on several fronts, with dozens of people killed and wounded in the the last couple of days. Gulf News (Dubai) and AP and Council on Foreign Relations (19-Apr) **** **** Saudi Arabia is condemned for Yemen's humanitarian disaster **** Although the blame for the damage to Yemen is shared by all the participants, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, AQAP and ISIS, the Saudis are receiving the bulk of the international condemnation because of its bombing campaign. There have been repeated stories in the last year that bombs from the Saudi coalition have struck schools, hospitals, and civilian homes. There have also been reports that some Saudi bombs have been US-made cluster bombs, which are considered illegal. According to the UN, at least 6,200 people - about half of them civilians - have been killed and 2.8 million others have been displaced. At the beginning of June, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a report condemning both the Saudis and the Houthis for killing and maiming children in Yemen. According to Ban's report, the Saudi coalition was responsible for 60 percent of child deaths and injuries last year, killing 510 and wounding 667. [indent]<QUOTE>"Grave violations against children increased dramatically as a result of the escalating conflict. In Yemen, owing to the very large number of violations attributed to the two parties, the Houthis/Ansar Allah and the Saudi Arabia-led coalition are listed for killing and maiming and attacks on schools and hospitals."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Saudi Arabia was added to an annual blacklist of states and armed groups that violate children's rights during conflict. However, the Saudis protested and said that the casualty figures were "wildly exaggerated." Saudi Arabia's permanent representative to the UN, Abdullah al-Mouallimi, complained to Ban about the report, and said, "If there are any casualties from the coalition side, they would be far, far lower." He added that used "the most up-to-date equipment in precision targeting." So a few days later, Ban removed Saudi Arabia from the list. Human Rights Watch sharply criticized the removal, saying that Ban's office had "hit a new low." A UN spokesman says that Saudi Arabia was removed from the list pending an investigation of the numbers in the report. However, this isn't the time something like this has happened. In the 2014 report, Israel and Hamas were put onto the blacklist, and then removed a few days later. Al-Jazeera and Reuters and BBC KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Sanaa, Houthis, Anwar Gargash, Ban Ki-moon, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Abdullah al-Mouallimi, Human Rights Watch, Hamas, Israel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 06-17-2016 Regarding the Orlando attack and US policy toward Muslims since before 9/11; The government is overstepping its prerogatives by imposing tolerance of Muslims on the American People. The government is governing tyranny because it is implementing policies that are opposed by the people. The government has no right to implement any policy if the majority of the populace has not granted the government consent to pursue those policies. Xers and Millies are demanding that the government governs constitutionally. Because boomers refuse to submit their policies to approval by the populace before carrying them out, Xers and Millies have rallied behind Donald Trump to force the boomer elites to submit to the will of the people. The Muslim Ban will be carried out because that is the will of the majority of the people. Xers and Millies will not accept Hillary being shoved down their throats by boomers obsessed with "Human Rights". This isn't just the case here in America: In Britain a local politician, Jo Cox was murdered recently by a Muslim Immigrant angered that women would have rights anywhere. To counter this scourge it is becoming increasingly likely that only mass expulsions would solve the problem. 18-Jun-16 World View -- Pressure mounts on European Union to resume admitting refugee - John J. Xenakis - 06-17-2016 *** 18-Jun-16 World View -- Pressure mounts on European Union to resume admitting Syrian refugees This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Children in Calais and Dunkirk refugee camps forced into rape, prostitution **** People demonstrate in support of refugees in Athens on Thursday (Guardian) A report by Unicef has found that sexual exploitation of children living in refugee camps in northern France is common on a daily basis. Many young boys are raped, and many young girls are raped and forced into prostitution. The study was based on interview with 60 unaccompanied children aged from 11 to 17 between January and April. There are 500 unaccompanied children in camps in Calais and Dunkirk at the end of March. Many of them have family members in the UK who are waiting for them to arrive. However, processing of children has been very slow, and only 30 of the 500 unaccompanied children have so far been brought to the UK. In order to reach France, human traffickers have already charged them $3,000 to $12,000. They are forced to pay an "entry fee" before they're allowed to live in the camps. Once in the camp, traffickers are charging another $6,000 to cross the channel into Britain, a higher price than ever before. The Unicef report quotes one 16 year old girl as saying "I know that if I pay or offer sex, I will cross more quickly. I have been asked to do this. It’s hard to say no." A boy says that he's "gassed and beaten here" in France. For these unaccompanied children, there's little protection from the cold and no access to schooling, and they are subjected to sexual exploitation, violence and forced labor on a daily basis. There's also evidence that they're being forced to commit crimes. Unicef is demanding that, at the very least, unaccompanied children with families in the UK should be processed more quickly and allowed to travel to their families. This is an explosive situation. On the one hand, you a massive humanitarian disaster involving children on a daily basis, in one modern, developed country, France, wishing to travel to another modern, developed country, Britain, to see their families. On the other hand, you have European populations in Europe that are increasingly resistant to allowing refugees into their countries under any circumstances whatsoever. This situation will not change if the "Brexit" referendum passes, and Britain leaves Europe, and almost certainly will worsen, because France will no longer be under any obligation to prevent refugees in Calais from crossing the Channel to Britain. Those who don't like these conclusions shouldn't blame me. Think of me as the weatherman. I'm not saying whether the category 5 hurricane is good or bad, but I'm only telling you that it's coming. There is no happy ending to this crisis. Unicef and Christian Today and Belfast Telegraph **** **** Médecins Sans Frontières announces it will reject further European aid **** In a move that my mother would probably have called "cutting off your nose to spite your face," the international aid organization Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) announced on Friday that they will no longer accept money from the European Union because of its "shameful" response to the refugee crisis, especially as the EU-Turkey refugee deal is being implemented. According to International Secretary General Jerome Oberreit: [indent]<QUOTE>"For months MSF has spoken out about a shameful European response focused on deterrence rather than providing people with the assistance and protection they need. The EU-Turkey deal goes one step further and has placed the very concept of “refugee” and the protection it offers in danger. ... Is Europe’s only offer to refugees that they stay in countries they are desperate to flee? Once again, Europe’s main focus is not on how well people will be protected, but on how efficiently they are kept away. ... Europe’s attempt to outsource migration control is having a domino effect, with closed borders stretching all the way back to Syria. People increasingly have nowhere to turn. Will the situation in Azaz where 100,000 people are blocked between closed borders and front lines become the rule, rather than the deadly exception?"<END QUOTE>[/indent] The last sentence refers to Azaz, a city in Syria with 300,000 people, of which 200,000 are already displaced. The forces of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) are now within 5 km of Azaz, and have threatened a huge massacre if they take control of the city. It's not clear what MSF is advocating for Azaz. The city is close to the border of Turkey, and perhaps the point of Oberreit's statement is that he wants those 300,000 people to be permitted to flee to Turkey, and perhaps from there to Europe. This is a total fantasy on MSF's part. As I read the situation, ISIS is going to torture, massacre and slaughter tens or hundreds of thousands of people in Azaz, and nobody is going to stop them. Those people are already as good as dead. Oberreit is turning down something like $50 million in aid from the EU that it could use to help people as part of its mission. By turning this money down, Oberreit apparently hopes to shame Turkey and the EU into permitting those 300,000 refugees to flee reach the EU. Instead, they're just going to lose $50 million in aid for no reason at all. Médecins Sans Frontières and Reuters and Middle East Eye KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, Dunkirk, Britain, Unicef, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders, Jerome Oberreit, Turkey, Syria, Azaz, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-Jun-16 World View -- Pak-Afghan border crisis revives Durand Line controversy - John J. Xenakis - 06-18-2016 *** 19-Jun-16 World View -- Pak-Afghan border crisis revives controversy over 120 year old Durand Line This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan reopens border crossing with Pakistan after week of gunfights **** Hundreds of trucks backed up at the Torkham border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Reuters) Pakistan reopened the Torkham border gate, a major border crossing with Afghanistan on Saturday, after keeping it closed for almost a week amid cross-border gunfights that killed at least one Afghan border police officer and one Pakistani army major. Thousands of vehicles normally pass through the Torkham crossing every week, making it a vital trade link between the countries. During the last week, there have been long lines of trucks backed up and waiting at the Torkham gate, on both sides of the Khyber Pass, a well-known mountainous transit route linking the two countries. The border between the two countries has been tense for years. It's been particularly ironic that for many years the headquarters of the Afghan Taliban was in Pakistan, while the headquarters of the Pakistan Taliban was in Afghanistan. Each group would cross the border to commit terrorist acts, and then would flee back across the border to escape approaching security forces. A turning point for Pakistan was reached after a horrific January 20 terror attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda in northwest Pakistan, killing 21 lives including a professor. Investigation showed that the perpetrators had crossed the border from Afghanistan, and then crossed back. Pakistan's army decided that it was necessary to build a fence along the border, and to control the border crossings. Afghanistan opposed this plan because hundreds of trucks and thousands of people cross the border every week for trade, work and medical care, and because the location of the border is in dispute. Pakistan went ahead with the construction of the border gates, and that lead to the gunfights last week. Pakistan finally reopened the border crossing on Saturday, but will only allow people to cross from Afghanistan to Pakistan if they have the proper documents - a visa and a valid passport. Since thousands of people have been crossing the border for years with no documents, this crisis is far from over. Thousands of Afghans conducted protests earlier this week in two Afghan cities, Jalalabad and Lashkar Gah, chanting "Death to Pakistan." Afghanistan's ambassador to Pakistan, Dr. Omar Zakhilwal, has threatened to resign. "I don't see any reason for me to continue my current job" unless Pakistan suspends its construction of new installations pending negotiations. However, a Pakistan official says, "This gate (is) considered essential to check and verify documentation of all border crossers." CNN and Dawn (Pakistan) and Khaama (Afghanistan) and Al-Jazeera **** **** Tensions grow over the Durand Line defining the Pak-Afghan border **** Pakistan army image showing the Torkham border gate 37 meters inside Pakistan According to Pakistan's military, "In order to check movement of terrorists through Torkham, Pakistan is constructing a gate on (our) own side of the border as a necessity to check unwanted and illegal movement." According to Pakistan, the Torkham border gate is being built 37 meters within Pakistan. However, Afghanistan disagrees, saying that the gate is being built one kilometer within Afghanistan. The disagreement is over the border line separating the two countries. In 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand, Britain's Indian foreign secretary at the time, signed an agreement with Abdur Rahman Khan, the Amir of Afghanistan, defining the 2640 km border, known as the "Durand Line." However, after the 1947 Partition war that partitioned the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, Afghanistan reneged on the agreement, and asserted claims to additional territory with Pakistan. Since then, efforts to renegotiate the agreement have been torpedoed by both sides. Since 9/11/2001, the Durand Line has taken on special significance, because of Afghan war and by the bombing by American warplanes and drones of Taliban targets in Pakistan's tribal area. It seems pretty certain that the border crossing crisis is far from over. Thousands of people are going to be inconvenienced by Pakistan's requirement that anyone crossing the border must have a visa and valid passport, and anyway, Afghanistan is certain to renew is claim that the Durand Line is not valid, and Pakistan's new border crossing is actually on Afghan territory. AFP and The Diplomat and The Nation (Pakistan) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Torkham border crossing, Khyber Pass, Afghan Taliban, Pakistan Taliban, Bacha Khan University, Charsadda, Jalalabad, Lashkar Gah, Omar Zakhilwal, Sir Mortimer Durand, Abdur Rahman Khan, Durand Line Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 06-19-2016 (06-17-2016, 03:51 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Regarding the Orlando attack and US policy toward Muslims since before 9/11; The government is overstepping its prerogatives by imposing tolerance of Muslims on the American People. The government is governing tyranny because it is implementing policies that are opposed by the people. The government has no right to implement any policy if the majority of the populace has not granted the government consent to pursue those policies. Xers and Millies are demanding that the government governs constitutionally. Because boomers refuse to submit their policies to approval by the populace before carrying them out, Xers and Millies have rallied behind Donald Trump to force the boomer elites to submit to the will of the people. The Muslim Ban will be carried out because that is the will of the majority of the people. Xers and Millies will not accept Hillary being shoved down their throats by boomers obsessed with "Human Rights". 1. The First Amendment establishes freedom of religion -- all religion -- including religious beliefs that people may find absurd, unsettling, or offensive. It does not say "all religion so long as it is Christian" or "all religion so long as it is not Islam". Replace "Islam" with "Judaism" in "freedom for religion except Islam", and you get the reality of religious freedom in Nazi Germany. Christianity remained legal as such, but it had to make compromises with an ideology inimical to Christian morals. So if you dislike Islam -- then avoid Islam. 2. Start proscribing any religion, and you put your religion at risk of being defined to its detriment. It is not up to the State to dictate morals, typically a mandate for unqualified obedience to leadership beyond criticism, scrutiny, or dissent. 3. The assassination of MP Jo Cox had absolutely nothing to do with Islam. It was on whether the UK is to remain within the European Union. The suspect was found with much right-wing stuff, and he seems very loopy. Don't draw conclusions until you have data, lest you be willing to see yourself as a fool. 20-Jun-16 World View -- Historic Orthodox Christian gathering exposes divisions - John J. Xenakis - 06-19-2016 *** 20-Jun-16 World View -- Historic Orthodox Christian gathering in Crete exposes sharp divisions This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Orthodox 'Great and Holy Council' marred by defections and controversies **** Eastern Orthodox icon 'Christ's Descent into Hades'. Unlike Muslims, who forbid the depiction of Mohammed, Orthodox Churches are adorned with many such icons and monuments It's been in the planning stages since it was first announced in 1961, and now that it's taking place, the news is more about the defections and controversies than the event itself. It's called the "Great and Holy Council (GHC) of the Eastern Orthodox Churches," and it's meant to be the first ecumenical meeting of all the Orthodox churches 787. At that time, the Catholic and Orthodox Churches were still together, and they held the Seventh Ecumenical Council of (almost) all the Christian Churches to decide such important issues as whether it's sacrilegious to display images and icons of Jesus Christ in churches. Since 787, the Orthodox and Catholic churches have been split. In the "Schism of 1054," the Pope and the Patriarch of Constantinople excommunicated each other, and in 1204 the Catholic Crusades attacked, sacked and plundered the Orthodox church in Constantinople. So Sunday was the first day of the Great and Holy Council, hosted in Crete by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople, considered "first among equals." It would be the first ecumenical meeting of Orthodox churches since 787. It would bring together the leaders of all 14 independent Eastern Orthodox churches, representing more than 300 million Orthodox Christians. Unfortunately, there have been several disagreements and defections. The first disagreement was that Russia and Bulgaria did not want to recognize Bartholomew as "first among equals," so they insisted that the meeting be held at a round table. That issue was resolved, but Bulgaria pulled out anyway, citing a lack of "particularly important" topics on the agenda. The Damascus-based Antioch Patriarchate also pulled out because a dispute it was having with the Jerusalem Patriarchate over which of them had jurisdiction over the small Orthodox community in Qatar. The Georgian Orthodox Church pulled out over a doctrinal issue. One of the most divisive issues in Orthodoxy is the relationship with the Catholic church. Some groups want to have closer relations with the Catholics, while others consider them heretics, citing particularly the 1204 Catholic sacking of Constantinople. But the most divisive issue of all right now is that the Russians want their Patriarch Kirill to displace Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople as the "first among equals." When the Ottoman Muslims sacked Constantinople (Istanbul) in 1453, Russia chose to take on the mantle of being "the third Rome," and head the Orthodox Church. Whatever traction was gained by that plan was thrown away by the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, where Nicolai Lenin (Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov) led the destruction and sacking of the Russian Orthodox Church, and turned Russia and the Soviet Union into atheistic states. So now Vladimir Putin is in power in Russia. He wants to ignore the historic role of Constantinople and also ignore Lenin's destruction of the Russian Orthodox Church, and put Moscow in the leadership of Orthodox churches worldwide. So Russia has also announced that it will not be attending the ecumenical council in Crete this week. Another controversy overshadowing the Great and Holy Council is that Putin used Orthodox religious history as a justification for the Russian invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. ( "20-Mar-14 World View -- Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church" ) The Ukrainian Orthodox Church has for centuries been a part of the Russian Orthodox Church, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea have led to a debate as to whether the Kiev Patriarchate of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church should be recognized as an independent church, separate from Russia. Patriarch Bartholomew is believed to be in favor of recognizing it, something that the Russians would angrily oppose. Although that issue has been officially removed from this week's agenda, it may return. Christian Today (2-June) and AP and Guardian (London) and Kiev Post and Tass (Moscow) **** **** History of Catholic and Orthodox Christian 'Ecumenical' Councils **** Christianity's first Ecumenical Council was held in 325 AD in Nicea, an ancient city just east of today's Istanbul (Constantinople). The Council of Nicea was a meeting of all Christian churches, led not by the Pope but by the Emperor Caesar Flavius Constantine of Rome. The objective of the meeting was to unify the different regional branches, and to resolve some important questions. At that time, many questions of Christian theology had not yet been decided. One of the most important was the divinity of Jesus Christ. If Jesus was born, then how could he be divine? Although there was debate, the Council ratified the view that he was a man, but was God in the form of human flesh. The details of how it makes sense that Jesus was both human and divine were extremely controversial. It was discussed further at the Second Ecumenical Council in Constantinople in 381, again in the Third Ecumenical Council, held Ephesus, an Aegean sea port, in 431. By the time of the Fourth Ecumenical Council, held Chalcedon, near Constantinople, in 451, the differences on this issue were extremely vitriolic. This was the time of the first major split within Christianity, as six branches of Christianity refused to recognize the Fourth Ecumenical Council, in a controversy that has never been resolved. Today, these are usually called the "Oriental Orthodox Christian" churches, comprised of the Ethiopian, Coptic (Egyptian), Armenian, Syrian, Indian and Eritrean Churches. These were all churches that had existed since apostolic times, and the major political issue was that they didn't wish to be controlled by Rome. The Fifth Ecumenical Council (in Constantinople in 553) and the Sixth Ecumenical Council (in Constantinople in 680) attempted without success the resolve the split. The Seventh Ecumenical Council, in Nicea in 787, is the last one that was recognized. At this one, the major controversy was was between the "iconoclasts" and "iconophiles." "Iconoclast" means "image smasher" or destroyer of religious icons and monuments. The iconoclasts, who were outvoted, said that religious art was idolatry and must be destroyed. If Jesus is divine, is it not sacrilegious to worship an icon of Jesus as if it were Jesus himself? The iconophiles loved icons, and argued that they were man's dynamic way of expressing the divine through art and beauty. The latter argument won out. There's also reason to believe that the argument over icons was heavily influenced by the rise of Islam at that time. The Charlie Hebdo terror attack in Paris in January 2015 was supposedly motivated by artistic representations of the Prophet Mohammed, and this prohibition was coming into effect at the time of the Seventh Ecumenical Council. That was the last time there was sufficient unity in the Christian churches to hold a worldwide Ecumenical Council, although there were smaller regional meetings. In 1054, the Pope in Rome sent a letter to the Patriarch of Constantinople demanding that the latter submit to the Pope as head of all the churches. The Patriarch refused, and so the Pope and the Patriarch excommunicated each other on July 16, 1054. The "Schism of 1054" has never been healed. Things got much worse in 1204 during the Crusades. The Catholics, on their way to fighting the Muslims in Jerusalem, sacked Constantinople, and placed a prostitute on the Emperor's throne at the church of St. Sophia. It was not until 2001 when the Pope John Paul visited Athens and, encountering large anti-Catholic protests, that the Catholics apologized for the sacking of Constantinople, and made a plea for forgiveness. ( "25-May-14 World View -- Pope Francis visits Mideast to reconcile with Jews, Orthodox, and Muslims" ) The Orthodox Christians were generally excluded from the Ecumenical Councils held by the Catholics over the centuries, but they were controversial nonetheless, even in modern times. The Second Vatican Council held by the Catholics in 1962-65 created a new split within the Catholic Church, when the Society of St. Pius X (SSPX) refused to recognize the legitimacy of its edicts. Pope Francis is currently working to heal this rift. It was at the time of the Second Vatican Council that plans for an Ecumenical Council of all the Orthodox Churches as announced in 1961. So in view of that history, it should not be surprising to anyone that the attempt to create a new Orthodox Christian Ecumenical Council, a Great and Holy Council (GHC) of Eastern Orthodox Churches, announced in 1961, has run into a great deal of controversy, as controversy has always been the norm, since the beginning. It's also interesting to note that it's the norm for religions to target small regional or national populations. You can be a "Catholic" anywhere in the world, but you can't just be an "Orthodox Christian," unless you're a "Greek Orthodox" or "Russian Orthodox" or some other branch. The same thing is true of the Protestant religion, which has about 20 different churches in the United States alone, each targeting a different group. There are only three religions that have "gone viral" and become virtually universal: Catholicism, Sunni Islam and Buddhism. For example, in China, you'll find plenty of Catholics, plenty of Sunni Muslims, and plenty of Buddhists, but few Greek Orthodox or Shia Muslims or Hindus. Orthodox Wiki and Catholic World Report and World Council of Churches and National Catholic Register KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Orthodox Christianity, Great and Holy Council, GHC, Seventh Ecumenical Council, Patriarch Bartholomew I, Constantinople, Istanbul, Patriarch Kirill, Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Nicolai Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, Caesar Flavius Constantine, Rome, Oriental Orthodox Christianity, iconoclast, iconophile, Charlie Hebdo, Islam, Crusades, Society of St. Pius X, SSPX, Pope John Paul, Pope Francis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 20-Jun-16 World View -- Historic Orthodox Christian gathering exposes divisions - John J. Xenakis - 06-20-2016 (06-20-2016, 12:30 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Orthodox Christians who do not tout Anti-Western notions should be Weird. 21-Jun-16 World View -- Iran threatens coup, after Bahrain revokes citizenship - John J. Xenakis - 06-20-2016 *** 21-Jun-16 World View -- Iran threatens coup, after Bahrain revokes citizenship of Shia cleric This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iran threatens coup, after Bahrain revokes citizenship of Shia cleric **** Pearl Square in Manama, Bahrain, after March 15 2011 protests. The beautiful Pearl monument was torn down by the regime on March 18, because it was thought to be encouraging protests. Bahrain has revoked the citizenship of the kingdom's most prominent Shia cleric, Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qasim, accusing him of promoting "sectarianism and violence." Bahrain's population is 2/3 Shia Muslim, but the country is led by an oppressive Sunni government closely allied with Saudi Arabia. In the days following the "Arab Spring" protests in 2011, Bahrain's security services overreacted with extremely violent and bloody massacres of unarmed protesters, backed up by troops from Saudi Arabia. The protests began in Bahrain on February 14, 2011. Dozens of protesters were killed, over 1,600 were arrested, and thousands were injured. According to a statement issued by Bahrain's government on Monday: [indent]<QUOTE>"Accordingly, the citizenship of Isa Ahmed Qasim has been revoked. Ever since he received the Bahraini nationality, Qasim has established organizations that follow an external religious political authority, played a major role in creating an extremist sectarian environment and worked on dividing the society alongside sects and in accordance with subordination to his orders. Qasim has also adopted theocracy and emphasized on the absolute allegiance to the Religious Clerics. Through his sermons and “fatwas”, he exploited the religious pulpit for political purposes to serve foreign interests. He also encouraged sectarianism and violence. Qasim has kept his decisions and positions, which he dictated as religious rituals, dependent on his continuous communication with hostile foreign organizations and parties. In addition, Qasim collected funds without complying with the provisions of the law. On several occasions, Isa Qasim has violated the supremacy of the law by issuing edicts (fatwas) that affected the elections and its processes. He influenced voters’ decisions using religious sentiments. This extends to all aspects of public affairs, undermining the rights of the people and the rule of law. He also rallied many groups to prevent the issuance of the second section of the Family Law (Jafari Section)."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The phrase "to serve foreign interests" presumably refers to Iran and Hezbollah. Although the 2011 protests were finally put down by massacring the protesters, there have been sporadic protests since then, and the Bahrain government evidently is afraid of a repeat of 2011's full scale anti-Sunni riots. The government of Iran, which is an equally bloody regime that massacres innocent protesters, issued a statement criticizing the revoking of Qasim's citizenship, and appeared to threaten Bahrain's government with a coup. The statement begins by reciting crimes of Bahrain's regime, the same crimes that Iran's regime regularly commits: [indent]<QUOTE>"The oppressed Muslim nation of Bahrain had been under the cruel, biased, unfair, and illegitimate regime of Al-Khalifa for long years. Despite furious acts which included unashamedly racist discrimination, arrest of their religious leaders, imprisoning and torturing women and children, stripping citizenship, violation of their rights without any qualms and several other crimes, this patient people have exercised patience; tightening the pressures has never distracted Bahraini people of their non-violent approach. ... Seemingly, the Al-Khalifa regime has underestimated and misinterpreted the scope and magnitude of the public wrath; encroachment of the religious leader's rights is definitely a sure redline for the public the crossing of which would set the region ablaze, leaving no alternative than resorting to armed resistance. The consequences of the possible conflict would be beyond estimation and would rewrite the history through toppling the despotic regime. The supporters of the regime in Manama should accept responsibility for legitimizing the brazen rulers of Bahrain for any bloody confrontation."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The last sentence can and will be interpreted as encouraging a coup in Bahrain, and suggests that Iran would support a coup. Iran's puppet terror organization, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, issued its own threatening statement, criticizing Bahrain's action, and "[calling] on the Bahrainis to decisively express their rage and discontent in face of the regime's action against Sheikh Qasim." Bahrain News Agency and BBC and Mehr News (Tehran) and Al Manar (Beirut-Hezbollah) **** **** Iran reacts to a series of repeated anti-Shia moves by Bahrain and Saudi Arabia **** Normally, Iran is publicly silent about Bahrain's regime, lest it be accused of meddling in Bahrain's affairs, and thereby inviting outsiders to meddle in its own affairs. Furthermore, Bahrain's Shia leaders prefer that Iran stay out, because they like to maintain the public pretense that Iran is not supporting Bahrain's Shia anti-government clerics. However, the action of revoking the citizenship of Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qasim appears to have been a kind of "last straw" for Iran, after a series of actions by Saudi and Bahrain officials targeting Shia leaders in their respective countries. The most explosive action occurred in January, when Saudi Arabia executed 47 alleged terrorists -- 46 Sunnis and one Shia, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Iran and Shias were infuriated because the execution implied that Shia terrorism is equivalent to Sunni terrorism. Iranian mobs firebombed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and attacked the consulate in Meshaad. Saudi Arabia and Iran broke diplomatic relations as a result. Other Saudi allies followed suit. ( "18-Jan-16 World View -- Pakistan tries to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran" ) Last month, Bahrain's courts sentenced Shia opposition leader Sheikh Ali Salman, after he had been found guilty of charges relating to "publicly inciting hatred, an act which disturbed public peace, inciting non-compliance with the law and insulting public institutions." Salman's Al Wefaq National Islamic Society issued a statement calling the decision "an alarming politically-motivated verdict [that] only deepens the political and constitutional crisis in Bahrain." Early last week, Bahrain's government shut down the Al Wefaq National Islamic Society. Then on Thursday, a Bahrain court sentenced eight people to 15-year jail terms for forming a "terror group." They also had their citizenships revoked, after convicting them of "establishing and raising donations to fund a terror organization named 'Bahraini Hezbollah'." The implication is that "Bahraini Hezbollah" is a terror group funded by Iran. Then on Monday, Bahrain revoked the citizenship of Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qasim, Bahrain's leading Shia cleric, and a leader of the opposition. Perhaps, under "normal" circumstances, this court action would have been ignored by Iran and everyone else. But after so many actions of the same kind, Iran's leaders may have felt they had to do SOMETHING, and they made their veiled threat of a coup, even though they know that an actual coup could lead to full-scale war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. BBC (30-May) and Al Wefaq (30-May) and Al Arabiya (17-Jun) and Press Tv (Tehran, 17-Jun) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Sheikh Isa Ahmed Qasim, Iran, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr, Sheikh Ali Salman, Al Wefaq National Islamic Society, Bahraini Hezbollah Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims hoax - John J. Xenakis - 06-21-2016 *** 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax **** Supposedly, this is a picture of Su Chengfen's 600 year old book (China Daily) An investigation by the BBC reveals that a Chinese claim of "ironclad proof" of China's South China Sea claims is apparently a hoax. For several weeks, China's state media has been making a big deal about an "ancient book," 600 years old, that proves that Chinese fishermen were fishing in the Paracel Islands and beyond. From there, according to a leap of logic that isn't clear to me, China says that this is "ironclad proof" that the Paracel Islands belong to China. Here's the description from Chinese media: [indent]<QUOTE>"Su Chengfen has spent all his life fishing in the reef-filled South China Sea, guided by a handwritten book more than 600 years old that depicts routes to various remote islands from Hainan province. The former fishing vessel captain, who lives in the town of Tanmen, cherishes the book, wrapping it in layers of paper even though at 81 it is impossible for him to return to the sea. He has always known it is precious, as it contains detailed information handed down over the generations, but at first he had not realized its true significance. Specialists say the information the book contains is undeniable proof of China's sovereignty over Huangyan Island. "Unlike other versions, it depicts the exact route to Huangyan Island. It clearly proves that generations of Chinese fishermen have worked on the island," said Zhou Weimin, a retired professor at Hainan University."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Another Chinese official says, "It is ironclad proof. ... We can deduce China's historic fishing and sailing rights in the South China Sea, as well as ownership." Huangyan Island is China's name for Scarborough Shoal, a reef that is a little less than 200 kilometers from Subic Bay, well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone or EEZ. So there's absolutely no way that that this book provides "ironclad proof" of anything. Even if the book is as described, it only proves that Chinese fishermen were fishing in Philippine waters centuries ago. It wouldn't be surprising if someone discovered that Philippines fishermen fished in Chinese waters centuries ago, but that doesn't mean that China is Philippines' sovereign territory. In the sixth decade BC, Julius Caesar's army conquered France, as he described in his Gallic Wars. But that doesn't mean that France is the sovereign territory of Italy. So Su Chengfen's book, even if it existed, would have no value whatsoever that I can see. However, the BBC sent its China correspondent, John Sudworth, to visit 81 year old Su Chengfen in the town of Tanmen on Hainan island. He wanted to speak to Su, and see this wonderful book for himself. According to Su: [indent]<QUOTE>"It was passed down from generation to generation. From my grandfather's generation, to my father's generation, then to me. It mainly taught us how to go somewhere and come back, how to go to the Paracels and the Spratlys, and how to come back to Hainan Island."<END QUOTE>[/indent] OK. So Sudworth asked to see the book, but Su tells him the book doesn't exist. [indent]<QUOTE>"Although the book was important, I threw it away because it was broken. It was flipped through too many times. The salty seawater on the hands had corroded it... In the end it was no longer readable so I threw it away."<END QUOTE>[/indent] According to Su, the book was thrown away in the late 1980s. So apparently the whole thing is a hoax. The picture from Chinese media, shown at the top of this article, is some other book. The layers of paper, in which the "cherished book" was wrapped, don't exist either. The "cherished book" was simply thrown out, according to Su. In particular, all the stuff depicting the "exact route" to the Scarborough Shoal is a 30 year old memory in the head of the 81 year old Su. Some Chinese media reports claim that there are other books, but look again at the paragraph quoted above: [indent]<QUOTE>"Unlike other versions, it depicts the exact route to Huangyan Island. It clearly proves that generations of Chinese fishermen have worked on the island," said Zhou Weimin, a retired professor at Hainan University."<END QUOTE>[/indent] So the other books do not depict the route to Scarborough Shoal. So China's "ironclad proof" consists of a book that doesn't exist, that may or may not have ever existed, and whose contents if it existed can only be guessed at. And even if it did exist, it only proves that Chinese fishermen were fishing in waters belonging to the Philippines, much as they're doing today. BBC and China Daily (24-May) and Julius Caesar - Gallic Wars - 58-51 BC **** **** The craziness of China's claims in South China Sea **** The above story is so crazy and farcical that I would barely believe it happened if I hadn't verified that the claims were made on several Chinese media sites and were refuted on the BBC site, as well as on the televised BBC World News, which showed Sudworth's actual interview with Su. And yet it did happen. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a generational Crisis era is in many ways similar to a human being's midlife crisis. A man may have a happy home with a wife and kids, but suddenly he becomes obsessed with a woman at work and has to have an affair with her, and does, using any ridiculous or bizarre reason to justify it, and ends up wrecking the lives of everyone around him. China is displaying the same kind of destructive and self-destructive behavior as a nation. A 2014 book called The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia by Bill Hayton is a detailed analysis of all of China's claims to the South China Sea and finds them, to no one's surprise, invalid. If they had any validity, then China would not hesitate to ask the relevant United Nations court to rule on them. Instead, China has angrily refused to let any court tell them what to do, and instead is spending billions of dollars in a vast military buildup that can only lead to war. Presumably, China is doing this for economic reasons, but Hayton quotes oil industry experts who say that they're skeptical that the South China Sea contains immense reserves of oil and gas, and that the fish stocks are becoming depleted. Instead, the South China Sea has become a highly nationalistic symbol, backed up by highly irrational, farcical and bizarre justifications, like the alleged 600 year old book described above, and by the widespread belief that the United States is too weak or too tired of war to fight, or that China will win such a war within a few days. This is the same kind of irrational belief that caused America's South to attack Fort Sumter, even though the North was three times as big, or that caused Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor, even though the US was five times as big. In all cases, including China today, these beliefs have been totally delusional and disastrous for everyone. China always says that its claims "are indisputable," and this much at least is a total lie since the claims are very much in dispute, and are currently being adjudicated by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a United Nations international court in the Hague, which is expected to rule on counterclaims by the Philippines in the near future. China has huffed and puffed and blustered on this issue, saying that the court has no right to adjudicate or that any ruling would be ignored, sounding like nothing so much as that middle-aged man caught having an affair. Irrational beliefs that lead to world wars are typical of generational Crisis eras. The 600 year old book won't be the last one and the Chinese themselves, the ones who survive, will regret it most of all. Asia Sentinel and Economist (13-Sep-2014) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) **** **** France calls for European navies to patrol the South China Sea **** The military buildup in the South China Sea is not exclusively on China's side. The US Navy has been conducting Freedom of Navigation patrols in the South China Sea, and Japan has sailed warships into Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay seaport, for the first time since Japan was forced to withdraw from Vietnam at the end of World War II. France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is calling for the European Union to get involved in the South China Sea dispute. According to Le Drian: [indent]<QUOTE>"If we want to contain the risk of conflict, we must defend this right, and defend it ourselves. If the law of the sea is not respected today in the China seas, it will be threatened tomorrow in the Arctic, in the Mediterranean, or elsewhere. ... This is a message that France will continue to be present at international forums. It’s also a message that France will continue to act upon, by sailing its ships and flying its planes wherever international law will allow, and wherever operational needs request that we do so."<END QUOTE>[/indent] France's navy is already involved, as it has already been deployed three times in the South China Sea so far this year. France has also signed a $40 billion deal in April to sell advanced submarines to Australia. Le Drian would like European navies to have a "regular and visible" presence in the region, to uphold the law of the sea and freedom of navigation. China's aggressive and virtually unsupported claims to the South China Sea are not the local or regional issue that one might expect, but are quickly expanding to become worldwide international issues. Foreign Policy and Bloomberg and Straits Times (Singapore) **** **** A request to readers: Protect the Generational Dynamics legacy **** The text and images for all the 4000 articles that have appeared on the Generational Dynamics web site since 2003 -- over six million words and 4,000 images -- are now available to be downloaded. This includes PDF files for the three books that I've written. They're now available on the download site http://www.generationaldynamics.com/dl/. With the worsening situation in the South China Sea, with several wars going on in the Mideast, with more displaced refugees in the world today than in decades, just one miscalculation by one person could result in a war that spirals into something really major. The entire internet, including my web site, could instantly become unavailable. Add to that the fact that I, like anyone else, could be hit by a bus tomorrow. Any one of these events could mean the immediate disappearance of my web site and almost 15 years of work that I put into developing Generational Dynamics would be gone. So I've posted a download page providing downloads of all the major documents and files, over six million words of text. I would like to ask as many people as possible to download these files and save them somewhere, so that if ten years from now someone is looking for the information about Generational Dynamics, then somebody somewhere will still have a copy, and the work will survive. The purpose is to protect the Generational Dynamics legacy, and to make sure that this work is preserved, and available to researchers who write books, professors who teach courses, and governments that make policy. Please download these files now. Generational Dynamics download page KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Paracel Islands, Su Chengfen, Zhou Weimin, Huangyan Island, Scarborough Shoal, Philippines, Julius Caesar, France, Gallic Wars, Italy, John Sudworth, Tanmen, Hainan island, Bill Hayton, Fort Sumter, Japan, Pearl Harbor, Permanent Court of Arbitration, France, Jean-Yves Le Drian, Australia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims hoax - Ragnarök_62 - 06-21-2016 ,<snip> **** **** A request to readers: Protect the Generational Dynamics legacy **** So I've posted a download page providing downloads of all the major documents and files, over six million words of text. I would like to ask as many people as possible to download these files and save them somewhere, so that if ten years from now someone is looking for the information about Generational Dynamics, then somebody somewhere will still have a copy, and the work will survive. The purpose is to protect the Generational Dynamics legacy, and to make sure that this work is preserved, and available to researchers who write books, professors who teach courses, and governments that make policy. Please download these files now. Generational Dynamics download page <snip> OK, FWIW, I saved the stuff, made a tarball , encrypted it, and sent a copy over to my backup drive as per my policy for non operating system data on my Linux box. The only fly in the ointment is that it's copyrighted. That means I can't send the stuff to a 3rd party and of course you can always enforce a "take down" and I'd have to remove the stuff I saved. I would of course comply with any take down notice as required by law. RE: 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims hoax - John J. Xenakis - 06-22-2016 (06-21-2016, 10:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > OK, FWIW, I saved the stuff, made a tarball , encrypted it, and Thanks. Also, I'm not sure what a "take down" is exactly, but I think the ointment is permanently out of the tube. |