Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
|
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 05-10-2017 (05-10-2017, 12:45 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Xers and Millies and the American people in general, want their rights back. Boombers by imposing subordination of US interests in favor of UN/Globalist interests have imposed tyranny on the american people. The boomer objective of democratizing Russia And China is destabilizing to world peace because it imposes a direct challenge to both countries regime's legitimacy. Now the boomer insists that Putin and CCP do not have the right to rule their countries because they don't respect democracy, yet these same boomers insist that xers and millies should not have their legally entitled rights because boomers claim that xer rights "advances tyranny". In France boomers selfishly block voted to prevent 4T reforms that Le Pen would have implemented and that Xers and Millies support, instead their president is going to be some globalist banker. What a disgusting generation western boomers are. Not all boomers are neoliberals. Trump for example couldn't care less about democratizing anyone. 11-May-17 World View -- US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turk - John J. Xenakis - 05-10-2017 *** 11-May-17 World View -- US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turkey's opposition This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US will 'quickly' arm Kurdish militias in Syria, despite Turkey's opposition **** Vehicles destroyed by Turkish airstrikes on Kurdish targets in Syria on April 25 (Reuters) The US military is moving quickly to get weapons into the hands of the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), despite opposition from Turkey. The YPG will use the weapons in its fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and the effort to eject ISIS from its stronghold in Raqqa. The weapons would include small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons and ammunition. According to the military, the selected weapons will address the specific threats that ISIS poses, such as the Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS), or car bombs of the type that ISIS has used to break up assaults. The US considers the YPG to be the best and most effective fighting force in Syria versus ISIS. On Wednesday, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), comprising a majority of Kurdish fighters and a minority of Arab fighters from the Syrian Arab Coalition, announced that they had recaptured the town of Tabqa from ISIS. They had announced last week that they had recaptured 90% of Tabqa, and now say that have taken the rest. Tabqa is about 45 km west of Raqqa, which is the final target of the current assault. Military.com and The Hill and Rudaw (Kurdistan) **** **** Turkish officials furious at plans to arm the Kurds **** On April 25, Turkey's warplanes bombed Kurdish YPG militias that were part of the US-led coalition fighting ISIS, killing or wounding dozens of YPG fighters. Some Turkish officials are threatening additional airstrikes against Kurdish militias if they are armed by the US military. The US military has been sending several hundred additional American troops to the region mainly to protect the Kurds from Turkey's military. The YPG are the Kurdish militia linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has for decades been a separatist insurgence in Turkey. The PKK has been conducting number terrorist bombings and other attacks, killing more than 1,200 people in Turkey, according to Turkish media. Turkish officials consider arming the Kurds to be an existential threat to Turkey. They say that the PKK group has begun adopting a "franchising strategy," in the same way that al-Qaeda has for years "franchised" al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda on the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and so forth. A US army spokesman, Col. John Dorrian, tried to reassure the Turks: > [indent]<QUOTE>"All of these items are going to be metered out to > accomplish specific objectives for the isolation and liberation of > Raqqa. > > We're going to carefully monitor what's being provided and what > it's used for, and we are completely committed to make sure that > it's being used for exactly the purpose that we > intend."<END QUOTE>[/indent] However, Turkish politicians point out that it's particularly humiliating to Turkey that this announcement was made while Turkish officials are in Washington, preparing for a visit by Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan next week on May 16. Some are recommending that Erdogan cancel the visit. I've said in the past, the factions fighting in Syria today -- the US, the Syrian regime, Russia, the Kurds, the Turks, and the "moderate" regime opposition -- all these factions are united today because they're all fighting the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS is defeated in Raqqa, ISIS's headquarters, then all bets are off. In particular, unless the American troops protecting the Kurds from the Turks are going to be stationed there forever, we can be certain that the Turks will be fighting the Kurds again. Anadolu (Turkey) and Washington Post and Hurriyet (Turkey) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Turkmens, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Tabqa, Raqqa, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Tayyip Recep Erdogan, Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices, VBIEDS, John Dorrian Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 12-May-17 World View -- Obamacare continues total meltdown as Aetna pulls out complet - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2017 *** 12-May-17 World View -- Obamacare continues total meltdown as Aetna pulls out completely This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Obamacare continues total meltdown as Aetna pulls out completely **** CNBC reporter Bertha Coombs is furious that Aetna is pulling out of Virginia Obamacare (CNBC) Obamacare continued its multi-year meltdown and death spiral on Wednesday when Aetna said it will completely leave the Obamacare business at the end of the year. According to Aetna: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Our individual commercial products lost nearly $700 > million between 2014 and 2016, and are projected to lose more than > $200 million in 2017 despite a significant reduction in > membership."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Obamacare would have collapsed on day one, but President Obama confiscated $716 billion in the Medicare insurance fund to providing funding for Obamacare entities. This is money that workers have been paying into the fund for decades, and Obama just blew it all away. The signs that Obamacare was collapsing have been clear now for almost two years, as several large insurance companies, UnitedHealthCare, Humana, BlueCross BlueShield, and others, have announced partial or complete pullouts from Obamacare because of massive financial losses. Aetna had previously announced a partial pullout, but now the pullout is complete. There have been astronomical price increases on health insurance in each year of Obamacare, and the next year is no exception. The first states to make their filings public for next year are Maryland, Virginia and Connecticut, and they're announcing premium increases of more than 20%. Furthermore, fully 1/3 of the counties in the United States have only one insurance option available. This is exactly what I predicted in 2009, shortly after Obamacare was first announced, when I called it a proposal of economic insanity. The reason I knew what would happen is because I remember well what happened with President Richard Nixon's price controls in the early 1970s. They were supposed to lower the inflation rate from 4% to 2%. Instead, the inflation rate surged to 12%. Let me repeat that. The inflation rate had been 4%. Nixon wanted to reduce it to 2% with wage-price controls. Instead, it went up to 12%. One thing that I remember well is that farmers were killing baby chickens because chickens were price-controlled, but chicken feed was not. So if the farmers allowed the chickens to grow, then it would cost more to feed than the price Nixon's controls would allow the farmer to sell the chicken. It was an absolute disaster for the economy, and the economy didn't recover for a full decade. This shows how Nixon's controls so thoroughly destroyed the American economy, resulting it huge inflation rates. I predicted that the same thing would happen with Obamacare, and that prediction was 100% correct. The reason I knew what would happen is because I still remembered Nixon's price controls. Health insurance inflation is now increasing at over 20% per year, and insurers are dropping out because it costs more to insure them than the premiums that they're allowed to collect. Furthermore, millions more people than ever are effectively uninsured, either because the deductibles are so high that they can't collect insurance, or because they can't find a doctor that will accept their Medicaid insurance. Obamacare has been a total disaster. It's destroyed the health insurance industry so thoroughly that it's causing huge rate increase, and the health insurance industry will take ten years to recover. In 2015, I spent three months doing a detailed analysis of Obamacare, and wrote an article about it. I was absolutely stunned by the sheer stupidity of this law. One example is "Risk Corridors." If an insurer is profitable, then the insurer pays profits into a "risk corridor fund" set up by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). If the insurer is losing money, then that insurer receives money out of the fund. As I drilled down into this, I couldn't believe what I was reading. Why would any insurer even try to be profitable, if their profits were simply going to be confiscated? If an insurer had some extra money, they might as well spend it, since they were going to lose the money anyway. Risk Corridors is just one example of some of the stupidest things I've ever seen, and it shows the stupidity of the people in the Obama administration who pushed this piece of crap. So now Obamacare is totally collapsing, and the Democrats and Republicans are jockeying to see who's going to get the blame as the disaster unfolds. It makes you want to vomit, but that's nothing new in Washington these days. Reuters and Bloomberg and Daily Signal Related Articles
**** **** Britain's NHS patients wait for months just to get bowel cancer tests **** According to new figures published on Thursday, patients in Britain's National Health Service have to wait several months to get diagnostic tests when they're suspected of having bowel cancer. This is one of the most lethal forms of cancer, and patients could die in the meantime. The mainstream media in Britain rarely mentions this, and you never hear it from the American media, but Britain's National Health Service is a growing financial disaster that is near collapse. As I've been reporting since 2015, Britain's National Health Service (NHS) is facing an existential crisis, with a huge and accelerating deficit expected to reach 22 billion pounds ($32 billion) by 2020. You would think that at least emergency situations would be covered adequately by the NHS, but the bowel cancer example shows that they're not. The financial crisis has caused so many hospitals to close that there was a shortage of beds early this year, and patients arriving in ambulances had to remain outside the hospital in the ambulances for several hours, until a bed could be made available. My favorite example is that if you have a toothache, then it can take a couple of months to get an appointment with a dentist, so you'd have to live with your toothache for a couple of months. Dentistry services are so bad that people are buying "do-it-yourself (DIY) dentistry kits" to take care of their whole families, as was done in the Middle Ages. Whenever anyone talks to me about Obamacare, they tell me about how they like getting subsidized health care, or they like to be able to wait until they're actually sick before they get health insurance. Well, it's nice to get things for free, isn't it? I know that I've always loved getting things for free. It's so nice. Unfortunately, it leads to financial disaster, as happened with Nixon's price controls, with Britain's NHS, and with Obamacare. Why doesn't Congress just pass a law outlawing hurricanes and earthquakes? Wouldn't that save a lot of lives? Guardian (London) Related Articles
**** **** Criminal Veterans Administration director has firing overturned **** Sharon Helman, the former director of the Veterans Administration hospital in Phoenix, has had her firing overturned by a federal appellate court. Helman has a criminal conviction for taking bribes from lobbyists, and had been director when it was revealed that veterans were dying because they couldn't get care that they were entitled to, and that Helman and other hospital directors were lying about wait times. Like Obamacare and Britain's NHS, the Veterans Administration's health care system is a financial disaster waiting to collapse. And one reason is that even a criminally-convicted perpetrator cannot be fired. USA Today Related Articles KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Aetna, Obamacare, UnitedHealthCare, Humana, BlueCross BlueShield, Richard Nixon, wage-price controls, Risk Corridors, Britain, National Health Service, bowel cancer, do-it-yourself dentistry, Sharon Helman, Veterans Administration Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 13-May-17 World View -- Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers afte - John J. Xenakis - 05-12-2017 *** 13-May-17 World View -- Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** MSF: Central American refugees entering Mexico are regularly beaten and tortured **** Migrants board 'La Bestia' (The Beast) in southern Mexico to travel to the US border. (AP, 2014) According to a new report by Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF) an estimated 500,000 migrants cross the border from Central America into Mexico each year. Many of these migrants are fleeing violence in what MSF calls the Northern Triangle of Central America (NCTA), consisting of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. However, their countries of origin aren't limited to those in Central America. In just a few days in September of last year, there was a surge of almost 5,000 Haitian, African and Asian migrants entering by Mexico's southern border. None of these migrants requested permission to stay in Mexico, as they all wanted to reach the United States. The huge sudden surge of migrants overwhelmed officials at US border crossings in California. Most migrants enter Mexico in the hope of continuing through Mexico to the United States. The MSF says that as they travel through Mexico, they're often victimized by kidnapping, extortion, rape, assault, torture and murder by criminal organizations, often with the tacit approval of Mexican authorities. 68.3% of migrants and refugees surveyed by MSF reported having been victims of violence on the transit route to the United States. In 2014, under pressure from the United States, Mexico instituted increasingly harsh border-control measures in the form of Plan Frontera Sur, a Mexican crackdown on border security funded in part by the U.S. This change in Mexico's policy has substantially increased the likelihood that the refugees will face violence, since the crackdown forces refugees to depend on human traffickers and travel on underground routes operated with impunity by organized crime. In February, during the first month of Donald Trump's administration, Mexican officials met with US military officials to try to find common ground on immigration and other issues. The relationship between the United States and Mexico has become strained after president Trump vowed to build a wall between the two countries to keep out illegal immigrants, drug dealers and criminals and make Mexico pay for it. Details of the meeting were not released. To resolve the humanitarian crisis, MSF calls on governments across the region – mainly El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Canada, and the US – to ensure better alternatives to detention and deportation to countries of origin where they'll be once again subject to violence. These countries should increase their formal resettlement and family reunification quotas. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières - MSF) and Reuters (2-Feb) and AP (25-Sep-2016) and iPolitics (Canada) Related Articles **** **** Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet **** Mexicans are seeking asylum in Canada at a rate four times greater than in 2016. The first three months of 2017 already saw more cases recorded than in the entire year 2016. One reason for the surge is president Trump's travel ban, announced in January, which raised concern in refugees that they might be prevented from entering the United States. Instead of trying to cross the border into the US, they get on a plane that takes them to the airport in Vancouver, British Columbia, in Canada. The second reason is that Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau invited them in. In 2016, Trudeau eliminated a visa requirement, imposed in 2008, for Mexicans traveling to Canada. The visa requirement sharply reduced the number of migrants, until it was lifted. In addition, Trudeau decided to react to Trump's travel ban by tweeting the following on January 28: > [indent]<QUOTE>"To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians > will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our > strength[1] #WelcomeToCanada"<END QUOTE>[/indent] Trudeau's tweet was followed by a picture of him greeting a refugee family. The two tweets garnered over a million likes and half-a-million retweets, The Canadian government has threatened to reinstate the visa requirement, and has told the Mexican government that it will do so if asylum claims continue to increase. Canadian Broadcasting (16-Apr) and Daily Caller (17-Apr) and Canadian Broadcasting (3-Apr) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Northern Triangle of Central America, NCTA, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Doctors without Borders, Plan Frontera Sur, Canada, Justin Trudeau Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-13-2017 (05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > You have yet to state credible arguments for the following points: That's my point. That instead of hiding their military capabilities as Sun Tzu and Deng Xiaoping tell them to do, the geopolitical situation is forcing them to proclaim their capabilities. (05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 2.) That either Debkafile or the Epoch Times are reliable sources I haven't used Epoch Times as a source since 2006, and then I described it as a "dissident newspaper." When I use Debka as a source, unless what they say is supported by other sources, I say that they sometimes get things wrong. (05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 3.) That a US invasion of North Korea to destroy their missile So? (05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > 4.) That Trump implementing his campaign promises regarding So? You're using your usual technique of hallucinating things that I said and then claiming that your hallucinations are wrong. 14-May-17 World View -- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections - John J. Xenakis - 05-13-2017 *** 14-May-17 World View -- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China forum launches the decades-long 'One Belt One Road' project **** China's 'One Belt One Road' project will include overland and maritime trade routes between China and Europe (CNN) On Sunday, 28 heads of state, 100 lower-level government officials, and 1,200 delegates from 110 countries will attend China's "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) forum in Beijing. It is also called the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) summit. The romantic appeal behind the Belt and Road project is that it's a modern day version of the ancient "Silk Road," a collection of trade routes regularly used between 100 BC to 1400 AD by traders carrying goods back and forth between China and Europe. The name comes from the popularity of Chinese silk in the Roman Empire. However, as the map above shows, the new Silk Road is not simply an overland route. The Belt and Road project consists of two parts:
The OBOR includes infrastructure projects that have already been under development since the 1990s. China plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 50 years or so to complete the project. Whether the project will ever be completed is, of course, open to doubt. There's already been one large, spectacular failure. In 2009, China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport. Sri Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt, and now China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of repayment of the debt, resulting in violent protests by Sri Lanka's Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters. Because the project is so expensive, so long-term, and so unrealistic, many people are suspicious that China's motives are more complex. The Sri Lanka port project shows what can happen -- China invests a lot of money in an infrastructure project in a country, and thereby gains political influence or sovereignty in the country, or even ownership of the infrastructure. Even if the OBOR is never completed, a successful outcome for China would be a strong economic and military grip in countries throughout the region. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and CNN and China Daily and Time Related Articles
**** **** Laborers on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) shot dead on Saturday **** One part of the Belt and Road initiative is known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Over 10-20 years, at a cost of $46 billion, CPEC will supposedly build a network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. It will have both economic and military components. Power generation, transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests. (The CNN map above does not depict the CPEC project. Nor does it depict the "Caspian Trade Corridor" which is also part of OBOR.) On Saturday, ten laborers working in southern Balochistan province on the CPEC infrastructure were shot dead at close range. Pakistan's marginalized Baloch ethnic group has been opposed to CPEC from the beginning, as they see it as incorporating the worst of China's investment practices. As we reported in March, some Pakistani analysts concluded that China will charge Pakistan exorbitant interest rates for the debt that it incurs. Balochs are opposed because the project will result in an inflow of more than 600,000 Chinese people -- Chinese workers and their families -- diluting that Baloch population. Baloch activists claim that whatever economic benefits the CPEC project will bring to Pakistan, most of the benefits will go to the favored Punjab province. The CPEC project will use up all of Balochistan's natural resources, and the Baloch people will get nothing from it. The killing of CPEC workers on Saturday highlights the massive security concerns that will accompany the project. There will be 600,000 Chinese workers entering Pakistan every year, and they will be targets of jihadist terror groups. These will include Afghan Uzbeks affiliated with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). India is boycotting Sunday's forum in China to express its objections to the CPEC plan, since it includes massive infrastructure projects in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir that will affect India-controlled Kashmir as well. According to an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman, "The international community is well aware of India’s position. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity." Reuters and The Nation (Pakistan) and The Hindu and India Today Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, One Belt One Road, OBOR, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Silk Road, Economic Belt, Maritime Silk Road, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport, Pakistan, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Caspian Trade Corridor, Gwadar, Balochistan, India, Kashmir, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, ETIM, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, IMU Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 05-14-2017 Really excellent discussion of the "one belt, one road" initiative and how it fits into the overall development of the geopolitical situation in Eurasia here: http://stories.cnas.org/the-return-of-marco-polos-world-and-the-u-s-military-response Also includes a couple sections on appropriate and inappropriate US poliicy responses. 15-May-17 World View -- North Korea sends a message with a medium range ballistic mis - John J. Xenakis - 05-14-2017 *** 15-May-17 World View -- North Korea sends a message with a medium range ballistic missile test This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea launches medium-range ballistic missile **** South Koreans in a Seoul railway station on Sunday morning watch North Korea's ballistic missile test (AP) North Korea's state media says that the country launched a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. According to state media, the child dictator Kim Jong-un personally "guided the test-fire," and bragged about its nuclear prowess: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Pyongyang, May 15 (KCNA) -- A test-fire of new > ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket > Hwasong-12 was successfully carried out on Sunday by scientists > and technicians in the field of rocket research, who are bravely > advancing toward a new goal to be proud of in the world, true to > the far-sighted idea of Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' > Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the > DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, for > building a nuclear power. > > Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire on the spot. ... > > He declared that the DPRK is a nuclear power worthy of the name > whether someone recognizes it or not. He stressed the DPRK will > keep strict control over those engaging themselves in nuclear > blackmail with its nuclear deterrence which has been unimaginably > and rapidly developed."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The missile traveled almost 500 miles in 30 minutes, and landed in the Sea of Japan, surrounded by the Korean peninsula, about 60 miles south of Russia’s Vladivostok region and approximately 250 miles from Japan. The missile was launched at the highest possible angle, so that it would travel high into the air, but would limit the lateral distance, and so it reached an altitude of about 1,300 miles. If it had been fired at a standard trajectory, then it would have had a range of at least 2,500 miles, meaning that it could have reached Russia and Japan, and probably the US base at Guam. Initial reports speculated that it had been an advanced KN-15 missile, from a mobile launcher and with a solid-fuel engine. The mobile launcher allows the missile to be hidden until minutes before launch, and the solid-fuel engine allows it to be ready to launch immediately at any time. However, it's now believed that it was a KN-17 missile, a single-stage, liquid-fueled missile. Tests with both the KN-15 and KN-17 missiles provide experience and data for ongoing development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach Australia or the United States. The United Nations Security Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss the situation. They're expected to issue a statement condemning the missile test, calling it "unacceptable," and threatening that if there's another test then the Security Council will hold another meeting. KCNA Watch and 38 North and Fox News and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** North Korean missile launch sends a message to everyone **** The timing of the missile launch on Sunday sends messages to officials in various countries:
North Korea's biggest message of all is that development of a nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles is going to continue, at least until North Korea has an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach Los Angeles, and that it will do so despite the wishes of China or any other country.. CNN and Korea Times and Yonhap (Seoul) and The Australian and LA Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, Japan, KN-15, KN-17, China, One Belt One Road, Xi Jinping, South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Moon Jae-in, Australia, Julie Bishop Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 13-May-17 World View -- Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers afte - John J. Xenakis - 05-15-2017 (05-15-2017, 11:11 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Here's the reality on the ground here in California. I've been told that older Mexican migrants in California are as opposed to new migrants as the Yanquis are, since they don't want to lose their jobs to new migrants. If older Mexicans are hostile to new migrants, that would do a lot to discourage new migration. 16-May-17 World View -- Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June - John J. Xenakis - 05-15-2017 *** 16-May-17 World View -- Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Syria's Bashar al-Assad accused of burning thousands of political opponents in crematorium **** The Yarmouk refugee camp for Palestinians, in Damascus, Syria, in 2014 (Getty) By this time nothing should surprise us about the psychopathic depravity of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. In 2014, a forensic photographic nicknamed "Caesar" defected from al-Assad's regime with tens of thousands of photos whom al-Assad had tortured using electrocution, eye-gouging, rape, strangulation, starvation, and beating on prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale. Al-Assad was so pleased and proud of this torture that he made sure each act was photographed. In February, Amnesty International released a report based on interviews with 84 people that thousands of peaceful demonstrators had been brought to Saydnaya prison for the kind of extreme torture just described. As many as 50 prisoners per day were taken out of their cells and executed, with their bodies thrown into mass graves. On Monday, the US State Dept. provided further insight into the execution of prisoners at Saydnaya prison. Apparent al-Assad was motivated by the concern that these huge mass graves might be discovered and show him in an unfavorable light. And so, the State Dept. says that in 2013 al-Assad took one of the buildings adjoining the Saydnaya prison and turned it into a crematorium, so that the bodies of the executed prisoners could be burnt to ashes, rather than thrown into huge mass graves. According to the State Dept: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The facts we’re presenting today are based on > reporting from international and local nongovernmental > organizations, press reporting, and also Intelligence Community > assessments. The continued brutality of the Assad regime, > including its use of chemical weapons, presents a clear threat to > regional stability and security as well as to the national > security interests of the United States and our allies. ... > > Moreover, the regime has also authorized the extrajudicial > killings of thousands of detainees using mass hangings at the > Saydnaya military prison. Saydnaya is a 45-minute drive outside of > Damascus and is one of Syria’s largest and most secure prison > complexes. Saydnaya is but one of many detention facilities where > prisoners are being held and abused. ... > > The regime holds as many as 70 prisoners in Saydnaya in cells that > have a five-person capacity. And according to multiple sources, > the regime is responsible for killing as many as 50 detainees per > day at Saydnaya. Credible sources have believed that many of the > bodies have been disposed in mass graves. We now believe that the > Syrian regime has installed a crematorium in the Saydnaya prison > complex which could dispose of detainees’ remains with little > evidence. > > Beginning in 2013, the Syrian regime modified a building within > the Saydnaya complex to support what we believe is a crematorium, > as shown in the photos that we have distributed to you. Although > the regime’s many atrocities are well documented, we believe that > the building of a crematorium is an effort to cover up the extent > of mass murders taking place in Saydnaya prison."<END QUOTE>[/indent] There is speculation that the State Dept released this information at this time in order to put pressure on Russia to rein in Bashar al-Assad from committing new atrocities. US State Dept and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** Final push to expel ISIS from Raqqa, Syria, to begin in June **** Rojda Felat, commander of the Kurdish Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) in Syria, which is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the “Euphrates Wrath Operation” to liberate Raqqa from ISIS, said that the attack will be launched in June: "The attack on Raqqa will take place in the beginning of the summer." It's believed that there are almost 4,000 fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Raqqa, which is the ISIS "caliphate" and major stronghold. The SDF is joining with the elders of Raqqa's tribes to surrender: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We call upon all Syrians who joined the ranks of ISIS > and those who carry arms, administrators or preachers, to > surrender themselves to the nearest military base of the SDF to > preserve his or her life and family, and the city from > destruction. We are ready to provide all relief and humanitarian > support to those who surrender within a maximum of ten > days."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The SDF consists mostly of Kurdish fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG), along with a lesser number of fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Once Raqqa is captured, the plan is to go down the Euphrates Valley and completely destroy ISIS, which currently controls about 35% of Syria. The United States military has been gradually increasing its involvement with the SDF, which it backs. It's believed that there are about 700-1,000 US special forces troops in the area. Several hundred are being sent mainly to protect the Kurds from Turkey's military. Last week, the US military announced that it will move quickly to get weapons, including small arms, mortars, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons and ammunition, into the hands of the YPG Kurds for use in fighting ISIS. The US considers the YPG to be the most effective fighting force in Syria against ISIS. Turkish officials are furious at this, since they consider arming the Kurds to be an existential threat to Turkey. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey, and has conducted an on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades. Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan will be visiting president Donal Trump in Washington today (Tuesday), and Syria will be a major topic on the agenda. ARA News (Syria) and Al Arabiya and Sputnik News (Moscow) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Saydnaya prison, Amnesty International, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Rojda Felat, Women’s Protection Units, YPJ, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Euphrates Wrath Operation, Raqqa, Euphrates Valley, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Tayyip Recep Erdogan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-May-17 World View -- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebo - John J. Xenakis - 05-16-2017 *** 17-May-17 World View -- Central African Republic violence threatens new spread of Ebola from Congo This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Christian vs Muslim violence continues to spread across Central African Republic **** Hospital in Bangassou, Central African Republic, where civilians are fleeing violence (MSF) The generational crisis civil war in Central African Republic (CAR) has been going on since 2013, when nomadic mostly-Muslim herder tribes form "Séléka" militias and began committing atrocities against Christians, triggering revenge attacks by Christians who formed "anti-Balaka" militias and began committing atrocities against Muslims. Since then, United Nations peacekeeping forces have been usually able to keep the two sides apart within Bangui, the nation's capital. But CAR is a huge country, and sectarian atrocities with Christian anti-Balaka militias massacring and committing atrocities against Muslim Séléka people, and vice-versa, has continued and grown across the country, especially in rural areas that are completely out of reach of UN peacekeeping forces. In March, I reported on tribal violence in Bambari and Bria, in the center of the country. What was different about that situation is that the fault lines were more ethnic than religious: farmer tribes and herder tribes are aligning against each other, sometimes ignoring religion. New reports indicate that violence in that region continues, despite efforts by UN peacekeepers. Now there are reports of major new and growing violence in and around the town of Bangassou, a border town in southeastern CAR on the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Armed anti-Balaka militias attacked Muslim neighborhoods, killing dozens of civilians in several villages. According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, violence is spreading and growing in rural areas in the southeast, center and western portions of CAR: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Violence and rising tensions are spreading to areas > of the Central African Republic that had previously been spared > the kinds of terrifying violence seen in some other parts of the > country – this is highly worrying and should set off loud alarm > bells. > > The hard-earned relative calm in Bangui and some of the bigger > towns in CAR risks being eclipsed by the descent of some rural > areas into increasing sectarian violence, with defenseless > civilians – as usual – paying the highest price."<END QUOTE>[/indent] From the point of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started. The United Nations officials hope that by sending a few hundred peacekeepers here and there, they can get the entire country to go back to the way they were in 2013, but that's not the way generational crisis wars work. This war has to expend a great deal more violence before it can end and, like every generational crisis war, will not end until there's some kind of explosive genocidal climax that will be remembered for decades, or even centuries. UN Office of Human Relations and Relief Web and Reuters and Anadolu Related Articles
**** **** CAR refugees threaten to spread Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo **** Thousands of families have been running from the violence in the border town Bangassou in southeastern CAR, and fleeing into northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Concerns have been raised because there is a new outbreak of the Ebola virus in a remote DRC region about 250 km from the CAR border, and it's feared that some CAR civilians might become sick and carry the virus back to CAR, where it could spread rapidly. As of Monday's situation report, the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified 19 cases of Ebola in the northern region of the DRC, with 3 deaths. The DRC strain is the deadliest known, more deadly than the Ebola strain that spread through western Africa two years ago. The WHO hopes that the lessons learned from the last epidemic will be successfully used to prevent a new epidemic. Already, emergency plans are being set up in airports to prevent the spread from country to country. This is the eighth outbreak of Ebola virus since it was discovered in the DRC in 1976. Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) and Independent (South Africa) and Vanguard (Nigeria) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui, Bambari, Bria, Bangassou, Séléka, anti-Balaka, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Ebola, World Health Organization, WHO, Nigeria Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces - John J. Xenakis - 05-17-2017 *** 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces attack protesters in Washington This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Washington shocked as Turkey's security forces attack peaceful protesters **** Erdogan and Trump after their meeting on Tuesday (AP) It's common to read about national security forces in other countries bashing peaceful anti-government protesters, but it's a shock for it to happen in Washington DC. But that's what happened on Tuesday evening, when Turkey's security forces brutally attacked peaceful protesters in from of the Turkish embassy. The attacks occurred shortly after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with president Donald Trump in the White House, and then returned to the Turkish embassy. Witnesses, backed by social media video, say that Erdogan's security forces broke through DC police lines and attack protesters outside the embassy carrying the flag of the Kurdish PYD party. Some social media video shows Turkish officials dressed in suits beating and punching people in the crowd and, in at least one case, kicking out at a woman lying on the ground curled up to protect herself. The PYD is a left-wing Kurdish political party in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a terrorist group that has conducted numerous terrorist attacks in Turkey, and has conducted an on-and-off civil war in Turkey for decades. There were 11 people hurt, including on US police officer. Washington DC police called in reinforcements and separated the two sides, making two arrests. It's possible that the perpetrators of the attack cannot be prosecuted because they have diplomatic immunity. However, some analysts say that diplomatic immunity does not apply to the security detail traveling with a foreign leader. This is not the first such incident. In March of last year, Erdogan was on his way to visit the Brookings Institute in Washington to give a speech. While he was en route, Erdogan's security personnel kicked both Turkish and Western journalists and protesters in front of the Brookings building. An even worse incident occurred in Ankara in December of last year, when a member of Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to Turkey. The US State Dept issued this statement on Wednesday morning: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We are concerned by the violent incidents involving > protestors and Turkish security personnel Tuesday > evening. Violence is never an appropriate response to free speech, > and we support the rights of people everywhere to free expression > and peaceful protest. > > We are communicating our concern to the Turkish government in the > strongest possible terms."<END QUOTE>[/indent] NY Times and Times of Israel and US News and Foreign Policy (1-Apr-2016) and US State Dept. Related Articles **** **** Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed from meeting with Trump **** Turkey's media are putting a positive spin on the outcome of Tuesday's meeting of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan with president Donald Trump. They're emphasizing the friendly smiles and handshakes, as well as the "new awakening" in relations between the two countries, without focusing on the fact that Erdogan left the meeting empty-handed. Erdogan had two major agenda items for the meeting:
However, Trump and Erdogan did agree that they should both "fight terror." The meeting between Trump and Erdogan lasted only 22 minutes, suggesting that it might have been simply a preparatory meeting for further negotiations in the future. VOA and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, PYD, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa, Brookings Institute, People's Protection Units, YPG, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Fethullah Gulen Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 18-May-17 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan leaves empty-handed as his security forces - John J. Xenakis - 05-18-2017 (05-18-2017, 10:35 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > The Turkish Embassy must have figured that now that the US has a If you have an actual link to those "Alt-Right" forum comments, I'd be interested in reading them. However, there appears to be a logic error in what you posted. The Trump policy is to arm the Kurdish militias in Syria fighting against ISIS, something opposed by the Turks, who would prefer to arm the FSA to fight against ISIS. Presumably, the "Alt-Right" forums are supporters of Trump, and so they would be on the side of Kurdish protesters. 19-May-17 World View -- US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tan - John J. Xenakis - 05-18-2017 *** 19-May-17 World View -- US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US warplanes strike Syrian regime military convoy near al-Tanf base **** Al-Tanf is on the Syrian side of Iraq's al-Waleed border crossing, and is on the strategic Route 1 highway between Baghdad and Damascus American warplanes launched a series of airstrikes on Thursday against a military convoy of pro-regime militias fighting in Syria. This is the second time in the last few months that American forces have intentionally struck military targets supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The first time occurred in April, when American ships in the eastern Mediterranean Sea launched dozens of cruise missiles at the al-Shayrat Airbase in Syria. That airbase was chosen because it's the base from which Bashar al-Assad one week earlier launched a horrific Sarin gas on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province, killing up to 100 people. Thursday's attack was on a pro-Syrian regime convoy headed in the direction of an American training camp at the border town al-Tanf in Syria, near the border with Iraq and close to the Jordan border. Originally there were thirteen vehicles in the convoy headed for al-Tanf. US warplanes were scrambled in a "show of force" to dissuade the convoy from proceeding further. According to some reports, there were "Russian attempts to dissuade pro-regime movement." After the show of force, five of the vehicles continued approaching the base. When they were within 29 km of the base, they were hit by US aircraft. It's believed that the militia forces in the convoy were not from the regular Syrian army, but were Shia militias coming either directly from Iran or from Iran's puppet Hizbollah militia in Lebanon. Although some vehicles were destroyed, it's not known whether there were any casualties. AFP and CBS/AP Related Articles
**** **** Al-Tanf becomes a military flash point because of strategic value **** Al-Tanf is a Syrian border town on the other side of the border with the Iraq town of al-Waleed, which is a major border crossing between Iraq and Syria. The two towns lie on Route 1, the principal highway that runs between Iraq's capital Baghdad and Syria's capital Damascus, and also forks off to Jordan's capital Amman. Militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured the al-Waleed border crossing two years ago in May, 2015, during the sweep that gave ISIS control of a great deal of territory in Syria and Iraq. As ISIS faced numerous counterattacks, al-Waleed was recaptured from ISIS by the Free Syrian Army in May of 2016. Even though it's no longer under ISIS control, it still retains enormous strategic value. ISIS fighters have repeatedly attacked the al-Tanf base, and had to be repelled by US Special Operations Forces. Two days ago, Iranian state Fars news agency said the following: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The sources said that the Hezbollah Movement has > deployed 12 regiments with 1,000 fighters to Homs, Dara'a and > Quneitra to face the US-backed militants in al-Tanf border > crossing and foil Washington's plan for the capture of Deir Ezzur. > > The sources said that the Syrian Army troops and their popular > allies are trying hard to intensify their operations in Badiyeh > (desert) to reach the border with Iraq and Jordan to prevent the > militants backed up by the US and Jordan from attacking Deir Ezzur > via the Syrian border with Jordan."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The border crossing is at the intersection of Syria, Iraq and Jordan, and Route 1 also forks off into Jordan, linking up to the capital city Amman. Reports indicate that there has been increased military activity in the region, and that there is a race to reach the border between US, British and Jordanian special forces, on the one hand, and Syrian, Hezbollah and Iranian forces on the other hand. BBC (22-May-2015) and Fars (Tehran) and CNN and Debka Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, al-Tanf, al-Waleed, Iraq, Jordan, al-Shayrat, Khan Sheikhoun, Iran, Hezbollah, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe [b]*** 20-May-17 World View -- France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali - John J. Xenakis - 05-19-2017 *** 20-May-17 World View -- France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** France's new president Macron commits troops to Mali 'as long as necessary' **** France has peacekeeping troops in five Sahel nations -- Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad (TRT World) France's new president Emmanuel Macron fulfilled a campaign promise on Friday by visiting the French peacekeeping troops in Mali, in his first official trip outside Europe since taking office less than a week ago. There are 4,000 French peacekeeping troops in Operation Barkhane, France's largest overseas operation, which was begun in 2014 by then-president François Hollande, with a vow to "wipe out armed terrorist groups." The French troops are in five West African nations in the Sahel region, which is a strip of land running horizontally across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea. Generally speaking, it separates the Arab north from Black Africa, along a fault line that often separates Muslims north of the Sahel from Christians south of the Sahel. The Sahel cuts through the five countries with French peacekeeping forces: Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. Macron said that France would be "uncompromising" in its fight against militant Islamists in Mali and the other nations, and vowed that France's military operations would continue until the jihadists are eradicated. According to Macron, "Operation Barkhane will only stop when there is no more Islamist terrorism in the region." France 24 and Radio France Internationale and BBC **** **** UN peacekeeping forces grow as jihadist attacks increase and Mali **** The three largest transnational jihadist groups in Mali are al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West-Africa (MUJAO), and al-Mourabitoun, created by Mokhtar Belmokhtar. However, probably the most important terrorist group in Mali is Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith), a local terrorist group from the Tuareg ethnic group. The Tuaregs live in a region spanning northern Mali, large parts of Algeria and Niger, and the southwestern portion of Libya. The Tuaregs had what arguably might be called a "lucky break" in 2011, when Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi was killed. To protect himself, Gaddafi had armed and employed mercenaries, many of whom were Tuareg. When Gaddafi died, the Tuaregs were left with a big weapons cache, which they used to begin a separatist rebellion in Mali. Central Mali has seen a sharp increase in jihadist attacks and ethnic violence since 2015. The United Nations has had an existing peacekeeping force of 12,000 troops in Mali called MINUSMA since July 2013. The UN is deploying a rapid intervention force of Senegalese troops to central Mali. China is sending a peacekeeping force of 395 troops to Mali before the end of May. However, Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau is receiving criticism for failing to meet his campaign promise of providing to the UN 600 Canadian troops for peacekeeping. Instead, has kept postponing the question, refusing to say whether or not the Canadian troops would be supplied. Trudeau's equivocation is causing problems for other countries supplying peacekeeping troops. As one foreign diplomat said, "Just make a decision. Even if it’s a no, we need a decision." TRT World (Istanbul) and News 24 (South Africa) and Premium Times (Nigeria) and National Post (Ottawa) Related Articles
**** **** A riddle **** Question: What do Trump and the Mainstream Media have in common with onald and Nancy Reagan? Answer: They're obsessed with each other. KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Emmanuel Macron, Africa, Sahel, Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Operation Barkhane, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West-Africa, MUJAO, al-Mourabitoun, Tuaregs, Ansar Dine, Defenders of Faith, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Senegal, Canada, Justin Trudeau Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 21-May-17 World View -- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive preside - John J. Xenakis - 05-20-2017 *** 21-May-17 World View -- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win **** Young woman voting in Iran on Friday Iran's president Hassan Rouhani won an election battle to be decisively re-elected for a second four-year term as president. Rouhani is considered a moderate, and was not favored by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. Rouhani won 57% of the vote in a large turnout, a huge margin against Khamenei's favored candidate, hardline cleric Ebrahim Raissi, who got only 38% of the votes. In his victory speech, Rouhani said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Honorable Iranian nation, you are the winners of the > election. I humbly bow to you. I will remain faithful to my vow > to you. ... > > Prouder than ever before, Iran is today ready to step up its > relations with the world on the basis of mutual respect and > national interests. > > Our nation’s message (of peace and friendship) was explicitly > departed to the world ... and the nation expects this most > important message to be correctly heard by all governments, > neighbors, and specifically, by great powers. ... > > “Our elections indicated to the neighbors and the region that the > way to restore security to the region is to shore up democracy and > honor the people’s votes rather than to rely on foreign > powers. ... > > Today, the world is well aware that the Iranian nation has chosen > the path of interaction with the world, a path which is distant > from extremism and violence. Our nation seeks to live in peace > and friendship with the world. However, it is not ready to accept > any disrespect or threat. This is our nation’s most important > message, and our nation expects the message to be appropriately > heard by all states, neighboring countries and, particularly, > world powers."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's an interesting observation that Iran comes second only behind Israel as the most democratic countries in the Mideast. Analysts indicate the decisive victory comes from the overwhelming support of young people, who came out in large numbers because of opposition to the hardline restrictions on dress, free speech, and gender relations, and because of the widespread belief that Khamenei and the hardliners were using illegal tactics to win the election. Some analysts say that the election was about the economy, but since Rouhani has failed to meet his election promises in the economy, that does not seem to be the reason that Rouhani won. Instead, it appears that young people ignored the economic issues just to vote against the hardline clerics. As I've written many, many times, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical weapons. A generational Awakening era is always about a "generation gap," a political conflict between the generations of traumatized survivors of the preceding generational crisis war and the generations of young people who grew up after the war, and have no personal memory of it. The older and younger generations have completely different world views, and the political conflict continues until there's an Awakening era climax that settles the disputed. America's last Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, marked by the "Summer of Love," as well as widespread political and racial riots, until the Awakening era climax occurred in 1974 with the resignation of President Richard Nixon. Iran is also headed for some kind of Awakening era climax, pitting the younger generations, current represented by Hassan Rouhani, versus the traumatized Great Islamic Revolution survivors, currently represented by Ebrahim Raissi and Ayatollah Khamenei. Rouhani's decisive electoral victory is not enough to be called an Awakening era climax, but it could trigger events that could lead to such a climax. During the campaign, Rouhani bitterly criticized his political opponents, including Raissi's supporters and the powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which enforces many of the hardline laws. Now that the election is over, hardliners are expected to "settle scores," and this could result in a major political battle of a kind similar to the one that led to Nixon's resignation. In fact, there is a particularly bitter battle on the horizon. Khamenei has been Supreme Leader since 1989, but he's 77 years old, and is in poor health, so there's a succession battle approaching. This succession battle may trigger the Awakening era climax that we've been describing. Tehran Times and Reuters and The Hindu Related Articles
**** **** Brief generational history of Iran and Saudi Arabia **** As I've been writing for over ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that Iran will be an American ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, which will pit the US, India, Russia, Iran and the west against China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Now would be a good time to briefly reprise the reasons for the prediction that Iran will be an American ally. There are two major categories of reasons.
Now would also be a good time to reprise the three events of 1979 that shook the Muslim world in the Mideast and beyond, and how they affect events today:
Needless to say, Americans today are totally oblivious to the events described here, but these were epochal events in the history of the Arab, Persian and Muslim worlds in the Mideast and beyond, and they define what's happening in the Mideast today. Related Articles
**** **** Donald Trump gets royal treatment visiting Saudi Arabia **** President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on Saturday, on the first leg of his five-nation tour. The first three visits will be to the centers of the Abrahamic religions -- Riyadh in Saudi Arabia, Jerusalem, and the Vatican. After that, he'll visit Brussels, the capital of the European Union, and then Taormina Italy for the G-7 meeting. Trump was received like visiting royalty in Saudi Arabia. Trump, his wife Melania, and his senior White House staff were serenaded by military bands, treated to a flyover of Saudi jets, feted in opulent palaces and given the undivided attention of Saudi's 81 year old King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Trump and Salman signed an agreement for the sale of $110 billion of military equipment to Saudi Arabia over several years. The deal includes tanks, combat ships, missile defense systems, radar and communications, and cybersecurity technology. Trump was joined on the trip by the CEOs of several major U.S. companies, which announced their own agreements with the Saudis. Among them was a $15 billion arrangement with GE focused on power, oil and gas, and health care. What's most interesting about Trump's visit is the symbolic flip-flop from the previous administration to the current one in attitudes towards Iran and Saudi Arabia. President Barack Obama repeatedly showed his contempt, in one way or another, for the Saudis, and the feeling was mutual. However Obama, through his Secretary of State John Kerry who believes that America's soldiers are terrorists, repeatedly sucked up to the Iranians, making one humiliating concession after another to close the nuclear deal. However, the feeling was not mutual, as Iran repeatedly insulted Kerry, Obama, and the American people, and still does. So now president Trump has made a symbolic reversal. Trump is contemptuous of the Iranians, and the Iranians are contemptuous of him. Trump loves the Saudis, and the Saudis love him. This is a good time to remind readers that it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. So the relations between American, Iranian and Saudi leaders is much less important than the attitudes that the masses of Americans, Saudis and Iranians have for one another. So we note the following:
I believe that a great deal of information can be determined by detailed generational analyses of the various tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. I believe that this analysis could be used to predict how events will unfold in the coming years. I certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an analysis, but any college student interested in this kind of analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. AP and Arab News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani Ebrahim Raissi, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC, Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, India, Russia, China, Pakistan, Battle of Karbala, Grand Mosque, Afghanistan, Pashtuns, Taliban Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile - John J. Xenakis - 05-21-2017 *** 22-May-17 World View -- North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile **** A ballistic rocket launching drill in Pyongyang, North Korea, on March 7, 2017 (Reuters) Eight days after the last one, North Korea test-fired another ballistic missile on Sunday. It flew about 500 km, before falling into the Sea of Japan. According to North Korea state media, Kim Jong-un "supervised" the test firing, and "analyzed the results of the test-launch and expressed his great satisfaction over them, saying it is perfect." The new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, had promised to begin talks with North Korea in the hopes of convincing them to stop the tests. North Korea has not responded at all to the call for talks, and this latest ballistic missile test appears to be intended as a complete rejection. Analysts generally are saying that North Korea already has the ability to send a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile to countries and US bases in the region, and that its development is proceeding quickly enough that the ability to send one to the US mainland is in sight. An opinion writer, Paul Wee, for the Seattle Times explains North Korea's motivations as follows: > [indent]<QUOTE>"There is something more that needs to be said. In the > early 1950s, responding to the North Korean threat, U.S. B-29s, > with little opposition, carried out the saturation bombing of > villages and towns across the North. The capital, Pyongyang, was > 75 percent destroyed with more than 3 million people killed. Over > a three-year period, 20 percent of the population was wiped out. > > Then Undersecretary of State, Dean Rusk, said that the U.S. bombed > “everything that moved in North Korea, every brick standing on top > of another.” With the cities in ruins, attention was then given to > the destruction of irrigation and hydroelectric dams and the > destruction of crops. > > Although little is spoken or written about this side of the war, > in North Korea it is remembered as if it happened > yesterday. During a visit in 1984, I recall billboards along the > main roads that purported to graphically document the destruction > and convey the enormity of the human suffering."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Here's what I wrote after the last ballistic missile test: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The United Nations Security Council will meet on > Tuesday to discuss the situation. They're expected to issue a > statement condemning the missile test, calling it "unacceptable," > and threatening that if there's another test then the Security > Council will hold another meeting."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Well, not surprisingly, that has turned out to be completely true. South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. AFP and Kyodo and KCNA Watch and Seattle Times Related Articles
**** **** Socialist Venezuela again delays eliminating 100-bolivar notes despite hyperinflation **** Hyperinflation continues in the Socialist economy of Venezuela, with an inflation rate of 93% in just January-April of this year. The country's bolivar currency is down more than 99% since Socialist leader Nicolás Maduro became president in 2013. Because the currency is becoming almost worthless, Maduro has ordered the elimination of lower-denominated bills. The 100-bolivar bill was supposed to be eliminated in December, but the order has been delayed for the seventh time, and now the elimination is scheduled for July 20. The 100-bolivar bill is currently worth about 14 US cents, and its value is continuing to fall. The plan is to eliminate it, and print new bills of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 20,000 bolivars. No reason has been given for the seventh delay, but in the past the government has been unable to purchase paper because it didn't have enough foreign exchange to be able to pay foreign suppliers. Throughout history, Socialism has had a 100% failure rate, causing nothing but economic disaster and dead bodies floating down the streets in rivers of blood, while Socialist leaders bask in opulence. Venezuela is headed down the same road, and it won't be long before Maduro orders the army to massacre thousands or tens of thousands of people, so that he can stay in power. Whether Kim Jong-un or Maduro, these Socialist leaders are all the same. Latin American Herald Tribune and Reuters Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Paul Wee, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 23-May-17 World View -- Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece - John J. Xenakis - 05-22-2017 *** 23-May-17 World View -- Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Greece's parliament raises taxes, cuts pensions to satisfy lenders **** Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is blocking further debt relief for Greece (Reuters) We reported in February that after passing one harsh austerity measure after another, Greece may refuse to pass another one, and Greece might actually leave the eurozone this time. However, Greece's parliament has now passed an omnibus austerity bill in order to meet requirements the lending institutions -- the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the International Monetary Fund(IMF). Greece faces a €7.5 billion debt repayment in July, and needs to borrow additional money in order to make that debt repayment. The terms of bill include the following:
Greece once had an extremely generous pension system. Retirement was possible from as early as the age of 55 after 30 years of work. Public sector employees and women with young children could retire several years earlier. Today, the standard retirement age is 67, and incomes have fallen 40% over the last seven years of crisis. Under the new bill, there will be some relief measures, contingent on meeting fiscal targets, including benefits for low income groups, support for rental costs up to 1,000 euros annually, increased benefits for parents with children, and subsidies for child care and lower costs for medicines. Kathimerini and Euro News and Kathimerini Related Articles
**** **** Germany's government blocks debt relief for Greece, despite new austerity measures **** Monday's meeting of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on further debt relief for Greece, despite the harsh new austerity measures adopted by Greece's parliament. The main purpose of the talks was to get the IMF to join in the bailout. The IMF doesn't want to provide any more bailout money because it believes that Greece's debt is unsustainable, unless the Eurogroup agrees to give Greece more debt relief. Germany's irascible Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble won't agree to release new bailout funds to Greece, unless the IMF participates. But with German elections approaching, Schäuble also won't agree to further debt relief for Greece. Germany's government is split. For months, Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel has criticized Schäuble's tough stance on Greece. Schäuble is in Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union party. Gabriel is in Germany's Social Democrat party. Gabriel is demanding that debt relief for Greece "must not fail due to German resistance." However, the Germany parliament needs to approve bailout negotiations, and Schäuble responded to Gabriel on Monday: > [indent]<QUOTE>"In Germany, we have a legal framework for > parliamentary involvement ... which is sometimes overlooked, > including by members of the German government."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The next meeting will occur in three weeks. Agreement must be reached in time to lend Greece the next tranche of loans to that Greece can make its €7.5 billion debt repayment in July. If Greece fails to make that payment, then it is in default. This looks like it has all the makings of another major Greek debt crisis, with several all-night meetings in a row, and with agreement finally reached at 5 am on the last possible day to avoid bankruptcy. However, some reports indicate that the Europeans are really sick and tired of those awful crisis weekends, and so they may be motivated to reach an agreement more quickly. Kathimerini and Politico (EU) and Bloomberg Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Grexit, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission, EC, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Thessaloniki, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Sigmar Gabriel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 24-May-17 World View -- Russian obstructionism blocks splitting Caspian Sea - John J. Xenakis - 05-23-2017 *** 24-May-17 World View -- Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea **** Map of Caspian Sea Last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that the five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea should be able to reach an agreement this year on the legal status of the Caspian Sea -- specifically, dividing up the seabed among the five littoral states. According to Karasin: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We believe that this [cooperation with the Caspian > Sea bordering countries] is one of the most important issues for > Russia now, because the Caspian Sea should be an example of > cooperation rather than confrontation. We are well aware that the > situation in the world is unstable, there is some uncertainty. The > Caspian Sea should be a positive example. There are all necessary > conditions for that. ... > > We are now working to formalize an agreement on the Convention on > the legal status of the Caspian Sea. We hope that this agreement > is within arm’s reach. ... > > In a word, one can be optimistic and say that we are on the right > track."<END QUOTE>[/indent] History shows that none of this is likely to be true. That's not surprising, since we knows from recent experiences with listening to Russia about invading Ukraine, invading and annexing Crimea, Syria, al-Assad's use of Sarin gas, the Russians' shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile, and so forth, that if Russians ever tell the truth, then it's by accident. The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea have for decades been unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them. They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all for commercial shipping and for fishing. The disagreements are over the seabed, and particularly control of the vast energy projects built on the seabed. Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union and Iran, and the Soviets used their vastly superior and military and economic power to gain the advantage in the Caspian Sea. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, suddenly there were five littoral states. During the 1990s, the chaos in Russia permitted Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to begin independent oil and gas development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was taking charge, and every form of obstruction was used. Russia's main number one objective is to prevent gas from reaching Europe, except Russia's gas, delivered by Russia's state-owned Gazprom. That means no Middle Eastern or Central Asian gas reaching Europe. It also means no drilling in the Caspian Sea, and it also means no pipelines crossing the Caspian Sea. Russia has used a variety of heavy-handed methods to reach its objective. By using its superior economic and military power, Russia was able to force Iran and Armenia to sharply limit pipeline capacities through their countries. In 2003, Gazprom attempted to gain control of Georgia's network of high pressure gas transmission lines, thus blocking any Azerbaijan gas from traveling through Georgia, though the attempt was thwarted by financial aid from US Agency for International Development. Tass (Moscow) and Jamestown and Atlantic Council **** **** New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind **** In the Caspian Sea, Russia's major weapon was to stir disagreements among the other four littoral states with regard to control of the seabed. International laws provide for various methods for splitting up ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these countries favor it. According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states, and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of rules, because they have the shortest shorelines. At numerous summit meetings, the Russians have succeeding in provoking disagreements among the countries, with the result that no agreement has been reached in the 26 years since the Soviet Union disintegrated. Since there's no agreement on who owns what, it's been difficult for any country to develop energy projects, which is Russia's objective. However, Russia's heavy-handed tactics began to backfire. Russia’s four-day interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine in January 2006 caused a surge in Europe’s political resolve to diversify its natural gas supplies and breathed new life into the still fledgling pipeline projects vying to bring Caspian gas to Europe. Russian gas supplies to Central and Southeast Europe were disrupted again from January 6 to 20 in 2009. This longer cutoff coincided with a period of cold weather throughout the region. This has led to "facts on the ground" that Russia is forced to consider. Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has started drilling a new well. Norwegian companies have expressed an interest in working with Iran to drill and explore oil fields in the Caspian Sea. And Mideast countries are beginning to work with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea. All of these energy projects specifically exclude Russia. For 25 years, Russia has exploited political differences among the other countries to block many pipeline projects, but at the same time, that deadlock has led to expanded contacts between other pairs of littoral states and increased shipping between and among them—again to the exclusion of the Russia. An even more ominous development for Russia is that since the start of 2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4%. This figure is striking given that Russian ports elsewhere have seen an 11% increase in traffic over the same period, while the ports of other Caspian littoral states have also grown busier. Such trends are worrisome to Moscow because the decline in traffic at Russia’s Caspian ports is accelerating and putting the country’s regional geopolitical strategy at risk. At any rate, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that "the Caspian Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation," and that a legal status agreement should be concluded by the end of the year. And yet, no date has been set for a signing of the legal status agreement, and the setting of such a date is nowhere in sight. Jamestown (George Goble) and Trend (Azerbaijan) and Mehr News (Iran) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Grigory Karasin, Caspian Sea, Soviet Union, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Gazprom, US Agency for International Development, SOCAR, Norway Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 25-May-17 World View -- China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating tie - John J. Xenakis - 05-24-2017 *** 25-May-17 World View -- China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China's flagrant snub of Singapore reflects deteriorating ties **** China commercial and military route through Malacca strait Two weeks ago, China held its wildly spectacular One Belt One Road (OBOR) forum in Beijing. Attending were 1,200 delegates from 110 countries, including 28 heads of state. Among them were seven leaders from members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But one of those leaders was noticeably missing: Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. The media debated whether China was snubbing Lee, or whether Lee had chosen not to go. Finally, Singapore's government clarified what happened: Lee was not invited. It was an official Chinese snub. In years past, Lee Kuan Yew, the father of the current prime minister, maintained very friendly relations with China, while still retaining a strategic relationship with the United States. But this balancing act seems to have eluded the current prime minister. He's been increasingly critical of China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea, and he's even joked about China during a visit to Washington. China got revenge last December when Hong Kong customs illegally seized nine Singapore-owned armored military vehicles being shipped from Taiwan back to Singapore. Singapore finally got them back only after several months had passed, but the message was clear: China no longer considers Singapore to be a friend. This was further emphasized at the OBOR forum not only by snubbing prime minister Lee, but also by signing billion dollar technology deals with Malaysia and Indonesia, completely bypassing Singapore. Lowy Institute (Australia) and Global Times (22-May) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 3-Dec-2016) and Bloomberg (18-May) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong - 1-Oct-2016) **** **** India and Singapore launch major naval exercises in South China Sea **** Singapore is a tiny city-state that sits at the bottom tip of the peninsula just below the western portion of Malaysia. Singapore was a British colony, and became self-governing in 1959. It was supposed to remain part of Malaysia, but in 1965 it split off due to ethnic tensions, and became an independent republic. Singapore guards the entrance to the Malacca Strait, a narrow passageway through which trillions of dollars in goods travel each year. Malacca Strait is extremely important to China as a choke point on the "Maritime Silk Road" portion of OBOR. Because of Singapore's strategic importance, it's somewhat surprising that China has bypassed Singapore, and has only signed deals with Malaysia and Indonesia. Both India and Singapore are fearful of Chinese military attacks. China may invade Singapore as part of an effort to keep the Malacca Straits open, and India has officially expressed concern that China's military may attack the lightly-defended Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which are India's sovereign territory. This week, India and Singapore are conducting major joint naval exercises called "SIMBEX," taking place in the South China Sea. Each country is fielding numerous warships and aircraft. According to an Indian navy spokesman: > [indent]<QUOTE>"This year's edition of SIMBEX, the 24th such > bilateral combat exercise, is aimed at further increasing > interoperability between the two navies as well as developing > common understanding and procedures for maritime security > operations. > > The thrust of the exercise, with the harbor phase scheduled from > May 18 to 20 and the sea phase from May 21 to 24, will be on > anti-submarine warfare, integrated operations with surface, air > and sub-surface forces, air defense and surface encounter > operations."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China's Foreign Ministry commented on the exercises by warning that the activities should "not hurt the interests of other countries," which presumably alludes to China's illegal military bases in the South China Sea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"If such exercises and cooperation are for the > benefits of regional peace and stability, then we have no > opposition," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said when > asked for China's response by Indian media at a daily briefing. > > We hold a very open attitude to normal exchanges between > countries. We just hope when relevant countries conduct such > exchange and cooperation they should bear in mind such activities > not hurt the interests of other countries or have a negative > impact to regional peace and stability."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's generous of China to have an open attitude toward "normal exchanges" between countries. However, China has repeatedly threatened America's "Freedom on Navigation" trips through the South China Sea, and has used its vast military power to prevent Vietnam and the Philippines from even accessing their own sovereign waters. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the closer association between Singapore and India is significant because it puts the strategically important Singapore clearly aligned with the West. The Independent (Singapore) and India Today and India Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Singapore, China, Malacca Strait, India, Lee Hsien Loong, Lee Kuan Yew, SIMBEX, One Belt One Road, OBOR Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |