Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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26-May-17 World View -- Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between - John J. Xenakis - 05-25-2017 *** 26-May-17 World View -- Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar **** Trump signs $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran during Monday's visit to Saudi Arabia has apparently triggered a renewal of a long-standing split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and within the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in general. The GCC is an organization of Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian Gulf. The joint statement issued after Trump's meeting with Saudi King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the following: > [indent]<QUOTE>"22. The two leaders also agreed on the need to > contain Iran’s malign interference in the internal affairs of > other states, instigation of sectarian strife, support of > terrorism and armed proxies, and efforts to destabilize the > countries in the region. > > 23. The two leaders also stressed that Iran’s interference poses > a threat to the security of the region and the world, and that the > nuclear agreement with Iran needs to be re-examined in some of its > clauses. The Iranian ballistic missile program poses a threat, not > only to neighboring countries, but also a direct threat to the > security of all countries in the region as well as global > security."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The next day, at a meeting with Israeli officials in Jerusalem, he said, "Most importantly, the United States and Israel can declare with one voice that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon - never, ever - and must cease its deadly funding, training and equipping of terrorists and militias, and it must cease immediately." Iran's newly reelected president Hassan Rouhani called Trump's appearance a "theatrical gathering with no practical or political value," saying that "You can't solve terrorism just by giving your people's money to a superpower." Rouhani was alluding to the deals that Trump and Salman signed for Saudi Arabia to purchase $110 billion in weapons from the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi called on Washington to abandon its "warmongering policy, intervention, Iranophobia and sales of dangerous and useless weapons to the main sponsors of terrorism." White House and Reuters and CNN **** **** Qatar claims that it was cyber-attacked after media reports supporting Iran **** The above reactions from Iran were to be expected, and were just a repetition of the sorts of things that Iranian hardliners say about the United States every day. Nothing new there. The reaction that created shocked waves was from Qatar, when Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani was quoted as saying: "There is no reason behind Arabs' hostility to Iran and our [Qatar's] relationship with Israel is good." The statement also praised the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Iran's puppet terrorist group, Hezbollah. The statements were immediately picked up by media in Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. An official in the UAE said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Qatar favoring the MB and Iran over Saudi Arabia, the > Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain is a serious political crisis. > > We concluded the summits in Riyadh, thanking God for uniting Arab, > Islamic and international stances and the 3 summits were > successful. However, we were surprised today to hear that Qatar’s > stance has changed; we believe that is neither a suitable timing, > nor suitable excuses or good statements. We ask Allah to guide > Qatar."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Four Arab countries -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain -- blocked al-Jazeera and other Qatari news sites. Then there was a further surprise when Qatari Sheik al-Thani announced that he had never made any such comments, and that Qatar's news web sites had been hacked. These claims were not universally believed. According to an editorial in the Gulf News: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Today, the GCC is faced with another challenge. And > unfortunately, it is coming from within the ranks of the > group. Shortly after the conclusion of last week’s GCC > Consultative Summit in Riyadh, we were stunned by remarks, > attributed to the Emir of Qatar, Shaikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, > during a military ceremony on Tuesday, in which he appeared to > defy not only the official GCC policies on most critical issues — > particularly Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah — but also to hint that the > American bases in Qatar were the only guarantee to safeguard his > country from the “threat posed by some neighboring countries”. > > While the three summits hosted by Saudi Arabia last Saturday and > Sunday, in the presence of United States President Donald Trump > and leaders of 57 Muslim countries, agreed that Iran was fuelling > conflicts and sectarian tension in the region, Shaikh Tamim has > been quoted by the Qatari official news agency as saying: “Iran > represents a regional and Islamic power that cannot be ignored and > it is unwise to face up against it. It is a big power in the > stabilization of the region.”"<END QUOTE>[/indent] At this point it is not clear to me, an outsider, whether or not al-Thani actually made the referenced remarks. However, the alleged remarks have triggered a major backlash by other Arab countries, and many officials of those countries believe that the quoted remarks, whether real or not, actually represent Qatar's policies. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain are still blocking Qatari news sites. Al-Arabiya (24-May) and BBC and The Peninsula (Qatar) and Gulf News **** **** Vitriolic Saudi-Qatari fault line reopened this week by Trump's visit **** In 2004, I reported several times about a major Mideast realignment, with Israel plus Egypt plus Saudi Arabia on one side, and Qatar plus Hamas plus Turkey on the other side. In March of that year there was an extremely bitter split among GCC members. After a stormy GCC meeting, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar The trigger was the refusal of Qatar to support a security agreement that was adopted by the GCC several months earlier, requiring all members not to back "anyone threatening the security and stability of the GCC whether as groups or individuals - via direct security work or through political influence, and not to support hostile media." In particular, Qatar has refused to implement three specific provisions:
When Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government were in power in Egypt, then Egypt and Qatar had close relations, and Qatar was providing aid to Egypt. However, in July 2013, army general Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi engineered a coup that overthrew Morsi, and later became president himself. The split grew larger during the summer, when there was a 60-day war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Qatar and Iran strongly supported Hamas, while many people believed that Egypt was on the side of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Late in 2014, the vitriolic differences between the GCC countries were papered over, thanks to mediation by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah II, the the older brother of the current King Salman. What's happened now is that all the vitriolic feelings of 2014 are resurfacing. It's quite possible that this is a momentary blip, and that a way will be found in the next few days or weeks to paper those feelings over again, but the events of the last week prove that those feelings exist, and they can resurface and turn into conflict at any time, if a new event triggers them. AP and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** Some useful information that's good to know **** If you live in Manchester, England, then you're a "Mancunian." Manchester was the site of the recent terror attack, KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Bahram Qassem, Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-May-17 World View -- Egypt's warplanes attack Libya camps after terror attack kill - John J. Xenakis - 05-26-2017 *** 27-May-17 World View -- Egypt's warplanes attack Libya camps after terror attack kills Coptic Christians This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Terrorists massacre dozens of Coptic Christians in Egypt **** Screen grab from terrorist public relations video showing Egyptian Coptic Christian fishermen just prior to beheading in Libya in Feb 2015 On Friday, ten masked gunmen driving three 4x4 wheelers opened fire with "random shooting" about 140 miles south of Cairo, Egypt, on a convoy of two buses carrying Coptic Christians who were traveling towards Saint Samuel the Confessor Monastery in Maghagha to pray, killing 26 and injuring 25. Friday's killings were just the latest in a wave of terror attacks on Coptic Christians. In December, dozens of people were killed by a terrorist explosion during Sunday prayers in the chapel of St Peter and St Paul (El-Botroseya) adjoining Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in Cairo. Then last month in April, during Palm Sunday services, there were coordinate bombing attacks on Coptic churches in two different cities, killing over 75 people and wounding dozens more. A furious president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi declared a state of emergency in Egypt for three months, allowing authorities to make arrests without warrants and search people's homes. This gave the government near dictatorial powers that could easily be abused, but they didn't prevent Friday's terror attack on Coptic Christians. Coptic Christians are vocal supporters of al-Sisi, but they are furious at the al-Sisi government for not preventing these repeated attacks, but al-Sisi seems helpless to stop them. The Coptic church dates back nearly 2,000 years, almost to the time of Christ. Coptics make up about 10 percent of Egypt's population of 92 million. No one has yet claimed credit for Friday's attacks, but both the previous attacks were claimed by the Sinai terror group called Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem). The group changed its name to Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Al Ahram (Cairo) and France 24 and Reuters Related Stories
**** **** Egypt's warplanes bomb al-Qaeda jihadist training camps in Libya **** In a TV speech late on Friday, Egypt's president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi promised to "protect our people from evil," and announced that warplanes were attacking the town of Derna in eastern Libya, near the border with Egypt. According to al-Sisi, > [indent]<QUOTE>"The terrorist incident that took place today will not > pass unnoticed. We are currently targeting the camps where the > terrorists are trained."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Forces from the East Libyan government (one of the three governments currently in Libya) said that they participated in the airstrikes. This was not the first time that al-Sisi ordered the bombing of al-Qaeda camps in Libya. Readers may recall a widely publicized terror attack from February 2015. The terrorist group Ansar al-Sharia, which had recently changed allegiance from al-Qaeda to ISIS, released a video showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christian workers who had been kidnapped while serving as guest workers in Sirte. The 21 hostages were identified as fishermen from an impoverished village in northern Egypt. At that time, al-Sisi declared seven days of national mourning, and announced that warplanes has conducted air strikes against militant targets in Libya, including training camps in arms depots. The targets were in the region of Derna, the same as the latest airstrikes. AP and BBC (16-Feb-2015) and Daily Mail (London) Related Stories
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Coptic Christians, Libya, Derna, Sirte, Saint Samuel the Confessor Monastery, Maghagha, Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Egypt, chapel of St Peter and St Paul, El-Botroseya, Saint Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-May-17 World View -- More violence in Kashmir after another militant leader killed - John J. Xenakis - 05-27-2017 *** 28-May-17 World View -- More violence in Kashmir after another militant leader is killed This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** India declares nationwide prohibition on sales of cattle for slaughter **** Cow slaughter is already illegal in India's Gujurat province In a move that critics say will devastate the economy, India's Environment Ministry on Friday issued regulations banning the sale of cattle, when the intent is slaughter or religious sacrifice. Cattle are defined as bovine animals, including bulls, bullocks, cows, buffalos, steers, heifers and calves and includes camels. The new regulations are seen as a move by prime minister Narendra Modi to satisfy demands from his Hindu nationalist base, who have been calling for a ban on all cow slaughter across the country. Banning cow slaughter is seen as targeting Muslims, who kill cows for meat, a practice that's followed by people of all faiths in almost all countries of the world. An analysis in the Hindustan Times points out that only 30% of cattle slaughtered in India is used for meat – either local consumption or export – while 70% of the carcass is traded for industries that deal in dozens of items for daily use, including buttons, soap, toothpaste, paint brushes and surgical stitches. India exported 2.4 million tonnes of buffalo meat to 65 countries in 2014-15, or 23.5% of global beef exports, worth about $4.6 billion. The hardest hit, according to the analysis, will be rural farmers who use cattle for ploughing. When a bull or bullock is no longer productive, the farmer sells it for 40% of its original purchase price, and uses the money to purchase a replacement animal. If the farmer is unable to sell the unproductive animal for slaughter, then the farmer will lose this money and, even worse, will not be able to slaughter the animal himself, so will have to continue feeding it. Hindustan Times and News 18 (India) and Times Now (India) Related Articles
**** **** More violence in Kashmir after another militant leader is killed **** Indian security forces in India-governed Kashmir killed a prominent militant commander, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, and a fellow militant, along with a civilian, early on Saturday after a gunfight that lasted for hours. The death of the militants triggered widespread protests across Kashmir Valley, and the imposition of new curfews. The death of Bhat at the hands of security forces is significant because he is the operational commander of the terrorist group Hizbul Mujahideen, and successor to Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen commander who was killed by security forces last year on July 8. The death of Wani last year triggered a major surge in violence that continues to this day, claiming 78 lives, and blinding hundreds of Kashmiris from the use of pellet guns by security forces. Hizbul Mujahideen is a separatist terror group of Muslims demanding independence for India-governed Kashmir, and that it be permitted to merge with Pakistan-governed Kashmir, so that all of Kashmir is under Pakistan control. As news of the death of Bhat spread, there were widespread protests by local citizens, as thousands of people began heading to Bhat's home village Tral, about 30 miles south of the provincial capital Srinagar, and pelting security forces with stones. According to some reports, 80 people were injured. Authorities imposed restrictions in parts of Kashmir Valley and suspended mobile internet services. There's a romantic back story to Bhat. Bhat was a childhood friend of Burhan Wani. Bhat reportedly turned to militancy after the family of a girl he loved spurned his marriage proposal and ended the relationship. Rising Kashmir and AP and News 18 (India) **** **** India's army exults over the successful killing of Sabzar Ahmad Bhat **** The killing of militant commander Sabzar Ahmad Bhat represents a change of strategy by India's army in Kashmir, according to Major General BS Raju, who heads the army's Victor Force in south Kashmir. Raju considers the death of Bhat to be an outstanding success. Instead of simply applying techniques to pacify protesters, he says that "We are going after the leaders." According to a news analysis in FirstPost: > [indent]<QUOTE>"That was the strategy of then BSF IG Ashok Patel, who > handled militancy at its worst, between 1990 and 1993. Patel > targeted commanders based on specific intelligence. He laid > cordons at specific locations on the basis of that information. > > The strategy worked well. The heads of major militant > organizations, including Muslim Janbaz Force, Jammu and Kashmir > Liberation Front, Students Liberation Front, Al Umar and Hizbullah > were all rounded up (arrested) by April 1992. > > That only left the largely rural-based Hizb in the field. It was > in December 1992 that Pakistan allowed the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the > Afghan-based Harkat-ul Mujahideen to Kashmir. They dominated from > then until that round of militancy ended around a decade ago. The > new militancy emerged over the past five years."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This is a mistake made by everyone -- politicians, security forces, ordinary people. They remember what happened in the 1990s, and they assume that if they try something that worked well at that time, then it will work well again. This assumption is completely wrong. The 1947 Partition War was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan. In the 1990s, the people in charge of both the Indians, the Pakistanis and the Kashmiris were all traumatized survivors of that extremely bloody war, and while they might tolerate some peaceful protests and stone-pelting, they would do everything possible to prevent a repeat of what happened in 1947. It's ironic, but in the 1990s the Hindus and the Muslims would have been cooperating with each other, whether consciously or by instinct, to keep any protests from getting out of hand. Those traumatized survivors are gone now, and the people in the younger generations who are in charge now have absolutely no clue what happened in 1947, nor what's going to be happening to them in the near future. So now in 2017, Indian army command BS Raju is going to duplicate the 1992 strategy of Indian army commander Ashok Patel, and he expects it work the same way. There's absolutely no reason to believe that. In fact, killing militant commanders in a generational Unraveling era like the 1990s, may work to convince those traumatized survivors to call off further protests rather than risk further bloodshed, but in a generational Crisis era like today, there is no real fear of further bloodshed on either side, with the result that tit-for-tat escalations can lead to full scale war. As I've written several times, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims. Kashmir is at the heart of a re-fighting of those two wars. First Post (India) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, cow slaughter, Narendra Modi, Kashmir, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, BS Raju, Ashok Patel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-27-2017 Its obvious that John X's generational dynamics is just globalist propaganda. Just this week Terrorists killed 22 Britons in Manchester and yet the articles John X posted the following night was some nonsense about Russian Ambitions in the Caspian. The Next article the day after that was one about Chinese strategy against India. When he finally mentioned Islamism John X didn't even mention the Manchester attack. This is just more globalist propaganda by the political class of human rights tyrants. Say no to Human Rights Tyranny. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-28-2017 (05-27-2017, 10:57 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Its obvious that John X's generational dynamics is just globalist I did mention the Manchester attack. Look at the last section of my May 26 article. There have been a million articles all over the world on the Manchester attack. There's no point in writing the same thing that other people are writing about. When I have a unique analysis that the idiots in the mainstream media are totally clueless about or at least aren't writing about, then I'll write about it. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 05-28-2017 I really have to laugh that you think that the articles about the Caspian Sea and Kashmir are "nonsense." It just goes to show how many Millennials are morons who don't have the vaguest clue what's going on in the world. World War III is much more likely to start in Central Asia or Kashmir than in Manchester. 29-May-17 World View -- North Korea launches another ballistic missile test, as talk - John J. Xenakis - 05-28-2017 *** 29-May-17 World View -- North Korea launches another ballistic missile test, as talk of war increases This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea launches ninth ballistic missile test this year **** USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group (Reuters) South Korea reports that early on Monday morning, North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile, its ninth ballistic missile test this year. This comes just one week after another ballistic missile test. The missile flew about 450 km (280 miles), and landed in the Sea of Japan. The missile is assumed to be a "Scud" missile known as the KN-06, that can be launched from a mobile platform, to target enemy aircraft or nearby ground targets. North Korea has a large stockpile of Scud missiles, originally developed by the Soviet Union. North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is quoted as saying that the system should be deployed "all over the country like forests so as to completely spoil the enemy’s wild dream to command the air, boasting of air supremacy, and weapon almighty." The usual steps have been taken in response to the latest ballistic missile test: South Korea's President Moon Jae-in, who had hoped to have friendly relations with North Korea, called a meeting of the country's National Security Council. Japan launched a protest and called the test "highly problematic, while Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe vowed action to deter North Korea's repeated provocations. Reuters and The Diplomat and Sky News (Australia) Related Articles
**** **** The US deploys three aircraft carriers to Korean waters amid talk of war **** The US Navy is deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group to the waters around North Korea. The USS Nimitz will join the USS Carl Vinson and USS Ronald Reagan, which were already in the region. That decision was made before Sunday's ballistic missile test, so tensions are growing high in the region. These events are causing people to worry about war, and specifically to worry that president Donald Trump will launch airstrike on North Korea. It's impossible to predict what any individual will do, and that certainly includes politicians. So it's possible that Trump may order some kind of attack on North Korea, and thus trigger a major new Korean war, and subsequently a world war. My personal belief is that three aircraft carriers are there to pressure North Korea politically, and that the actions are being taken with the cooperation of the Chinese, and possibly even the Russians. For example, one scenario short of an attack is that China and the US are playing good cop / bad cop. That's just a guess. Anyway, we'll just have to wait and see. Sunday's test was of a short-range mostly defensive ballistic missile, so it may be possible to have fanciful thoughts that North Korea is backing down, or at least slowing down. A new test of either a nuclear weapon or an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), two technologies which could be combined to deliver a nuclear weapon to the US mainland, would raise tensions enormously. No one doubts any longer that North Korea will inevitably develop the technology to deliver a nuclear weapon to the US mainland. So there's going to be a war now or in the near future. That's what Generational Dynamics has been predicting anyway, so there's no surprise. Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Daily Beast and CBS News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Scud KN-06 ballistic missile, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Japan, Shinzo Abe, USS Nimitz, USS Carl Vinson, USS Ronald Reagan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 29-May-17 World View -- North Korea launches another ballistic missile test, as talk - Warren Dew - 05-28-2017 (05-28-2017, 09:40 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: For example, one scenario short of an attack is that China and the US I don't think there's any doubt that's what's happening right now. The question is, what happens when the good cop fails, and the bad cop starts breaking the prisoner's bones? If the prisoner fights back, does the good cop side with the bad cop or with the prisoner? 30-May-17 World View -- Arrest of Berber activist in Morocco raises Berber-Arab tensi - John J. Xenakis - 05-29-2017 *** 30-May-17 World View -- Arrest of Berber activist in Morocco raises Berber-Arab tensions This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Arrest of Berber activist in Morocco raises Berber-Arab tensions **** Fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri (L), and the picture that went viral of his death on October 26 in a garbage truck, triggering widespread anti-government protests Police on Monday in the town of al-Hoceima in Morocco arrested anti-government activist Nasser Zefzafi, on the charge of having interrupted a prayer ceremony at a mosque in al-Hoceima. The arrest warrant was issued on Friday, because he had "obstructed, in the company of a group of individuals, freedom of worship" at the mosque, according to prosecutors, and because he stopped "the preacher from continuing his sermon, giving a provocative speech in which he insulted the imam and fomented disturbances that undermined the calm and sacredness of the place of worship." Nasser Zefzafi is the leader of the anti-government Popular Mobilization movement (Al-Hirak al-Shaabi), which he founded last year in November, after the bizarre death on October 26 of a fishmonger who was crushed by a garbage truck. Mouhcine Fikri, a fishmonger, was illegally selling out-of-season swordfish worth $10,000 that he had just purchased from the port in al-Hoceima. A policeman confiscated his swordfish, and threw it into a garbage truck. Fikri jumped into the garbage truck to retrieve his fish, and he was crushed to death by the garbage truck. Some people who were present claim that the policeman told the garbage truck driver to crush him on purpose, though the police deny this. Pictures of Fikri's horrific death went viral, and triggered regular protests since then. Fikri and Zefzafi are both ethnic Berbers, and al-Hoceima is a mostly Berber port city in northern Morocco, a country governed almost entirely by Arabs. Zefzafi has been accused of wanting for form an independent Berber country, which he denies: "Our demands are economic and social, there has never been a question of creation of an independent state. For six months we have been resisting... And we will resist until they respond to our demands for the economic and social development of our region." More than 20 activists were arrested over the weekend following clashes between protesters and the police. BBC and AFP and Al-Jazeera Related Articles
**** **** Brief generational history of Berbers and Arabs **** Berbers or Amazighs claim to have lived in northern Africa for thousands of years, since the dawn of civilization, and are referred to as Libyans in classical texts. Although they had wars with the Romans and Byzantines for centuries, they were not subjugated until the arrival of the Arabs starting in the 680s, fifty years after the death of Mohammed. Today there are still isolated tribes descended from the original Berbers, maintaining ancient traditions and the Berber's Tamazight language, but the population of Berbers has diminished over the centuries, often due simply to intermarriage with the dominant Arabs. In modern times, Algeria's war of independence from France (1954-62) united the Berbers and Arabs against the common enemy, the French. However, during the generational Awakening era that followed, tensions grew between the two ethnic groups, culminating a major anti-government protest in Algeria, the Printemps Berbère (the "Berber Spring") of April 1980. The Berbers demanded an end to discrimination by the Arab majority, and recognition Tamazight as a national language. The protests were bloodily suppressed by Algerian security forces. Since then there have been occasional new protests, the worst occurring in July 2015, when at least 22 people were killed in ethnic clashes between Berbers and Arabs in Algeria. Berber anti-government protests have been growing again in Morocco, ever since Berber fishmonger Mouhcine Fikri was crushed to death by a garbage truck after a confrontation with an Arab policeman. Now the arrest of anti-government activist Nasser Zefzafi is certain to energize new protests, probably as early as the weekend. Ancient.eu and France 24 and Temehu.com (Libya) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Morocco, Berbers, Amazighs, Tamazight, Arabs, Algeria, Libya, Mouhcine Fikri, al-Hoceima, Nasser Zefzafi, Popular Mobilisation movement, Al-Hirak al-Shaabi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 05-30-2017 From Merkel's latest speech, it sounds like the US and Germany may not be on the same side this time around (again). RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Galen - 05-30-2017 (05-30-2017, 12:50 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: From Merkel's latest speech, it sounds like the US and Germany may not be on the same side this time around (again). Not just Germany but the rest of Europe. It is not really surprising so see the alliances resulting from the Second World War starting to come apart. The assumptions they formed under do not apply any longer. 31-May-17 World View -- Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syri - John J. Xenakis - 05-30-2017 *** 31-May-17 World View -- Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey builds a northern Syria 'National Army' from Free Syrian Army militias **** A US officer speaking with a YPG fighter on April 25 (AFP) Turkey is planning to form a new "National Army" in northern Syria, bringing together factions from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that fought last year as part of Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield, joined by defectors from the Syrian regime's army. The objective of the previous operation, which began on Aug 24 of last year and ended on March 29 of this year, was to clear out both the the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) from a region in northern Syria. Turkey ended Operation Euphrates Shield in March under pressure from Russia, but Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed that military operations would continue to prevent either ISIS or the YPG from regaining control of any part of the area cleared out by Operation Euphrates Shield. The YPG has links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting a separatist rebellion in Turkey since the 1980s, and which has perpetrated a string of major terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years. For these reasons, Turkish-led military actions in northern Syria were intended to prevent the Kurds from taking control of the entire northern border of Syria, and then declaring an independent Kurdish state of Rojava. An additional purpose of the new "Syrian National Army" was to create a buffer zone or safe zone for Syrians fleeing the conflict, something that Erdogan has been demanding for years. According to Erdogan: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Once we have created a safe zone, the Syrians will be > able to establish their National Army, so they can feel > safe."<END QUOTE>[/indent] According to Turkish media, almost a million people so far have returned to the area cleared of ISIS and the YPG, or have been relocated there from other conflict areas. The Syrian conflict has resulted in millions of refugees. Some three million are in Turkey, about one million are in Europe, and millions more are in Jordan and Lebanon. The safe zone or buffer zone in northern Syria could provide for Syrian refugees that's within Syria itself. The role of the YPG is a major area of contention between Turkey and the US. The YPG are allies of the US military who considers them to be the most effective anti-ISIS fighting force in the region. However, because of the YPG links with the PKK, Turkey considers the YPG to be terrorists. It's believed that there are hundreds of US special forces troops in the region, and one of their objectives is to keep the Turks and the Kurds from shooting at each other. TRTWorld-Youtube (Turkey) and Al Monitor and Reuters (18-May) Related Articles
**** **** US begins arming YPG Kurds in northern Syria on eve of battle of Raqqa **** The US army has begun arming YPG Syrian Kurdish militias, as announced early in May. The weapons would include small arms, mortars, AK-47s, heavy machine guns, shoulder-fired weapons, ammunition, bulldozers and armored vehicles such as the M1117 Guardian. According to the military, the selected weapons will address the specific threats that ISIS poses, such as the Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDS), or car bombs of the type that ISIS has used to break up assaults. This comes on the eve of the assault on Raqqa, the major stronghold and so-called Caliphate of ISIS. The YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now about two miles from the city, and the battle to eject ISIS is expected to be extremely bloody and last for weeks or months. The assault to eject ISIS from Raqqa in Syria is beginning, but the assault by Iraq's army to eject ISIS from Mosul in Iraq continues, after beginning in October of last year, and is also a long, bloody battle. It's believed that within a few months, ISIS will have been ejected from both Raqqa and Mosul. Until then, all these various armies and militias have a common enemy. After that, these armies will have no one to fight except each other, and one possibility is that the thousands of ISIS fighters will return to their home countries, possibly to conduct lone wolf attacks. Military Times/AP and Fox News and NRT (Kurdistan) and Sputnik News (Moscow) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, National Army, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurdish People's Protection Units, YPG, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Rojava, Raqqa, Mosul, Iraq, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Jun-17 World View -- Massive terror explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, as US consider - John J. Xenakis - 05-31-2017 *** 1-Jun-17 World View -- Massive terror explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, as US considers sending more troops This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Massive terror explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, the largest in years **** Aerial view of Kabul, Afghanistan (UN) The biggest terrorist explosion in Afghanistan in years took place in the capital city Kabul during the morning rush hour on Wednesday, killing 90 people and injuring almost 400. The explosion was caused by a powerful truck bomb in a large truck designed to carry sewage. Over 50 vehicles were either destroyed or damaged in the attack. Buildings hundreds of meters away from the explosion were damaged or had windows blown out. According to one witness, "I have been to many attacks, taken wounded people out of many blast sites, but I can say I have never seen such a horrible attack as I saw this morning." The area that was attacked is supposed to be the safest in Kabul, with foreign embassies and government offices protected by dozens of 10ft-high blast walls guarded by police and national security forces. Every vehicle entering the area is supposed to be checked for explosives, leading some analysts to believe that the perpetrators had the cooperation of someone in the security forces. However, a statement from the Nato forces says that Afghan security forces had prevented the vehicle from entering the heavily protected Green Zone that houses many foreign embassies, suggesting it may not have reached its intended target. Sky News (Australia) and Tolo News (Afghanistan) Related Articles
**** **** Afghans blame Pakistan and the Taliban-linked Haqqani network **** The Taliban have conducted numerous terror attacks in Kabul, but they claim that they didn't perpetrate this one. According to a statement issued by the Taliban: > [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Taliban] condemn every explosion and attack > carried out against civilians, or in which civilians are > harmed. ... > > [Whoever] carried out this attack and for what purpose, that will > become clear at a later stage."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This statement from the Taliban is laughable. The Taliban regularly attack innocent civilians, including women and children, and they particularly target ethnic Hazaras and Shia Muslims in general. In fact, the vast major of people killed by the Taliban are innocent civilians. However, it's bad publicity for the Taliban to kill innocent civilians, so they're reluctant to take credit for it for PR reasons. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) did claim credit for the attack, but ISIS has developed a public relations gimmick of taking credit for any terror attack, whether they've been involved or not. The Afghan intelligence agency NDS blamed the Haqqani network for the attack. The Haqqani Network is linked to the Taliban, and is widely believed to be funded and supported by Pakistan security services, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). According to an aide to Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani, "Today’s enormous explosion absolutely was a Haqqani Network type attack. ISIS [in Afghanistan] cannot carry out such a large and sophisticated attack." Sky News (Australia) and AFP and Daily Beast Related Articles
**** **** Afghanistan situation deteriorates, as US considers sending more troops **** Afghan security forces control only about 57 percent of the country's territory. Around 2.5 million people live in areas controlled by the Taliban and nine million more live in contested areas. According to analysts, the Taliban are now stronger than at any point since the 2001 Afghan war. U.S. General John Nicholson described the current military situation in Afghanistan against the Taliban as a "stalemate," and he's requested several thousand additional US troops to enhance the 8,400 American and 5,000 coalition forces already present. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the security situation in Afghanistan will only get worse. As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody civil war of 1991-96 was fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are from the Pashtun ethnic group, which extends into Pakistan, and so the Taliban Pashtuns in Pakistan cooperate with the Taliban Pashtuns in Afghanistan to conduct terror attacks. When America attacked Afghanistan in 2001, the Afghan Taliban collapsed quickly, because Afghanistan was in a generational Recovery era, with the traumatized survivors of the bloody 1991-96 civil war still recovering, with little will to fight. However, since the 2001 war, younger generations of Pashtuns have come of age, and they're more willing to conduct attacks against the government, and against their parents' former enemies in the Northern Alliance. So it really doesn't matter at all how many troops the US or Nato send to Afghanistan. The security situation is going to continue to deteriorate, and the Taliban and ISIS will continue to control provinces of Afghanistan, at the expense of the government in Kabul. Deutsche Welle (25-May) and ABC News and Russia Today and Deutsche Welle Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kabul, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Haqqani Network, Taliban, Pakistan, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, John Nicholson, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Jun-17 World View -- China-built railway in Kenya raises questions about 'debt trap - John J. Xenakis - 06-01-2017 *** 2-Jun-17 World View -- China-built railway in Kenya raises questions about 'debt trap diplomacy' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kenya launches new China-built railway from Mombasa port to Nairobi **** Madaraka Express railway launch in Nairobi, Kenya, on Wednesday Kenya on Wednesday launched a new railway line call he Madaraka (Freedom) Express, linking Kenya's Port of Mombasa on the India Ocean to the capital city Nairobi. The word "Madaraka" commemorates the day that Kenya became independent in 1963. The new 380-mile Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) line is expected to be good for business. Cargo charges from the Port of Mombasa to Nairobi will cost about $500 per container and take 8 hours transit time. This is a significant saving over transit by road, which costs $900, and requires 24 hours. The train can carry 1,260 passengers. The new railway replaces "The Lunatic Express," a rail link built in the late 1800s by British money and colonists. The Lunatic Express was increasingly shaky, with old tracks and locomotives that were increasingly difficult to service. The new SGR was built with Chinese money and Chinese workers. China's state-owned Export-Import Bank loaned Kenya $3.6 billion for the project, which Kenya is expected to repay out of revenues. However, some analysts are raising concerns that the SGR will be a "white elephant," leaving Kenya with enormous unpayable debts, as has already happened in Sri Lanka. Even worse, the cost to build the Kenya railroad has been extremely expensive even by regional standards. The cost of the railway was roughly twice as great as another China-built railway, the Djibouti-Ethiopia train, suggesting the possibility of corruption. Perhaps Djibouti and Ethiopia were able to drive a harder bargain with the Chinese, because China is also building a naval and air base on the strategic Red Sea port in Djibouti, and the railway connects that port to Ethiopia's capital city, Addis Ababa. The site of the Chinese base is about 6 miles from an existing US base in Djibouti. China has defended the base construction, citing evacuations of Chinese nationals from nearby Yemen and Libya during recent conflicts. In launching the new railway, Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"A history that was first started 122 years ago when > the British, who had colonized this nation, kicked off the train > to nowhere... it was then dubbed the 'Lunatic Express.' ... > > Today 122 years later, despite again a lot of criticism, we now > celebrate, not the Lunatic Express but the Madaraka Express, that > will begin to reshape the story of Kenya for the next 100 years. > I am proud to be associated with this day. ... > > The drop in cost of freight and fares will make Kenya a more > attractive investment destination. More investors will lead to > more jobs and growth in our economy."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Another issue related to the railway is that it crosses Kenya’s Nairobi National Park. Built by British settlers in 1946, this is a wild animal park on the fringes of Nairobi, and is a leading tourist attraction, and is responsible for a significant amount of Nairobi's income. However, wild animals occasionally migrate out of the part into nearby homes and farms. With the SGR right through the middle of the park, these visits by wild animals have increased. Earlier this year, two lions escaped from the park and had to be shot, as they were threatening humans. This has raised an outcry from environmentalists, who are demanding a number of changes, including raising the railway above the park, so that animals can move freely. The Shanghaiist and Radio France Internationale and African Business Magazine (5-May) and UPI (18-April) and Huffington Post **** **** China accused of a policy of 'debt trap diplomacy' in infrastructure projects **** There is no economic or financial case for the railway, according to a World Bank report. There's a very realistic fear that the SGR will generate far less income than is necessary to repay the China's $3.6 billion loan. We've already seen exactly these problems in Sri Lanka. In 2009, China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport. Sri Lanka had expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt, and now China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of repayment of the debt, resulting in violent protests by Sri Lanka's Buddhist monks and anti-government protesters. China will own a significant piece of Sri Lankan real estate, and there will be a large Chinese community that will be in Sri Lanka forever. Professor Samuel Nyandemo of the University of Nairobi's School of Economics refers to China's projects as "debt trap diplomacy" > [indent]<QUOTE>“Extending loans for infrastructure projects is a good > thing. But look at the projects being funded. Most of them are > meant to open markets for Chinese goods in strategically-located > countries and increase their access to natural resources. > > If there is one thing China is truly good at, it is using its > economic assets to advance its geostrategic interests, which has > left countries snared in a debt trap that makes them vulnerable to > Chinese influence."<END QUOTE>[/indent] In fact, however much revenue the new SGR railway generates, it will have a significant negative economic impact on Kenya. That's because there's an existing Nairobi-Mombasa railway run by Rift Valley Railways (RVR). Amazingly, Kenyan authorities are now requiring that a minimum of 40% of the cargo travelling between Nairobi and Mombasa must be taken by the new SGR. This is presumably going to be a financial disaster for RVR, but it also means that Kenya will have little or no revenue gain from the new railway, since it will be taking much of its business from the old railway. When Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta recently visited the One Belt One Road (OBOR) forum in Beijing, he signed a contract borrowing another $3.5 billion from China for an extension to the SGR that was just launched. Critics say that thanks to the president, Kenyans will have to labor for China for years to come. Kenya Standard Media (28-May) and Times of India and African Business Magazine (23-May) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Mombasa, Nairobi, China, Export-Import Bank, Madaraka Express, Standard Gauge Railway, SGR, Lunatic Express, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Red Sea, Addis Ababa, Nairobi National Park, Samuel Nyandemo, debt trap diplomacy, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport, Rift Valley Railways, RVR, One Belt One Road, OBOR Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Jun-17 World View -- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civi - John J. Xenakis - 06-02-2017 *** 3-Jun-17 World View -- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Five people killed in clashes with police in anti-government rally in Kabul, Afghanistan **** Afghan security forces and residents stand near the 13ft deep crater left by Wednesday's truck bomb attack in Kabul (AFP) At least five people were killed and dozens injured on Friday in Kabul, Afghanistan, when security forces opened fire on protesters throwing stones at police. The protesters were demanding that President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah both step down, for failing to protect citizens, following Wednesday's massive terror attack in Kabul that killed 100 people and injured hundreds more. The explosion was caused by a powerful truck bomb in a large truck designed to carry sewage. Over 50 vehicles were either destroyed or damaged in the attack. Buildings hundreds of meters away from the explosion were damaged or had windows blown out. The terror attack is thought to be the worst in Afghanistan's recent history, and many people are furious that it was allowed to happen. Over 1,000 protesters started marching towards the Presidential Palace early Friday. However, once at Zanbaq Circle, which was the scene of Wednesday’s deadly bombing, police started firing off tear gas canisters. According to some reports, the protesters threw stones at the police. Fire trucks also sprayed the demonstrators with water. When this failed to disperse the crowd, police opened fire with live rounds on the protestors. The result was that at least five people were killed, with two of them shot in the mouth, and two more shot in the chest. At least 15 people were wounded, but reports indicate that they were mostlly shot in the legs and feet. Chief executive Abdullah Abdullah addressed the nation on Friday afternoon and called for calm, and said that the shooting of peaceful protesters by security forces will be investigated. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and BBC **** **** Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war **** The Taliban are refusing to take credit for the massive Kabul bombing on Wednesday. That's not surprising, because of the massive slaughter of innocent civilians. The Taliban press releases like to portray them as nice guys fighting against a corrupt government and the infidels from the United States and Nato. Slaughtering and crippling hundreds of innocent civilians doesn't fit with their sweet PR image. Nonetheless, few people doubt that the Taliban, specifically the Haqqani Network, were responsible for Wednesday's bloody slaughter. Americans and Europeans who try to understand what's going on in Afghanistan rarely dig any deeper than to refer to statements or policies of Barack Obama or Donald Trump or Angela Merkel, as if one of them could cause or prevent a truck bombing. Most people in Kabul probably don't even know who those leaders are. What they do know is that there was a bloody civil war from 1991 to 1996, with both sides regularly committing massacres, torture, rapes, beheadings, and any other atrocity that comes to mind, and the bitter memory of that bloody civil war guides much of what they do, including Friday's protests. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is the current leader of Hezb-e Islami (abbreviated HIG for Hezb-e Islami-ye Gulbuddin), a Sunni Muslim ethnic Pashtun group that fought on one side of Afghanistan's bloody civil war in 1991-96. Hekmatyar himself was a warlord known as the "Butcher of Kabul," because of his unparalleled record of atrocities, killing thousands of innocent people. Hekmatyar last month was allowed to return to Kabul after 20 years in exile, mostly in the UK. Hekmatyar had signed a peace agreement that granted him immunity for acts committed during the war. In return, Hezb-e-Islami will renounce its ties with extremist groups. Hekmatyar, now almost 70 years old, has had an epiphany, and is no longer committing atrocities, One of his followers, Safia Sediqi, a member of Hizb-e-Islami’s women’s committee, said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The country is tired, we were born in war > Mr. president, we got old and our sons are getting old, you tell > us when will peace come to Afghanistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This is always the cry of survivors of generational crisis wars. Traumatized by the war, all they want is peace. But unfortunately Ms. Sediqi is going to learn that there will be no peace. As I've explained in the past, Afghanistan is at the beginning of a generational Awakening era, 21 years after the climax of the civil war. If it were up to the traumatized survivors, there would be peace, but it's not. It's up to the younger generations, growing up after the war, who have no personal memory of the war, There will be no return to general civil war -- the traumatized survivors will see to that. But the young people will hold protests, demonstrations and riots that sometimes become violent. Afghanistan is also a special case because the Taliban are radicalized ethnic Pashtuns, and they are receiving support from the Pashtuns in Pakistan, which is in a generational Crisis era. So there will more terrorist acts and no peace. Two things are certain: First, the demands that Ashraf Ghani step down are going to increase. And second, the war in Afghanistan is only going to get worse, no matter how many extra troops are sent by the US and Nato. Tolo News (Kabul) and Afghan Analysts (3-May) and NY Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kabul, Zanbaq Circle, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, Taliban, Haqqani Network, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Hezb-e Islami, Hezb-e Islami-ye Gulbuddin, HIG, Safia Sediqi, Pashtuns, Pakistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Jun-17 World View -- Crisis in Afghanistan grows with three new suicide bombers - John J. Xenakis - 06-03-2017 *** 4-Jun-17 World View -- Crisis in Afghanistan grows with three new suicide bombers in Kabul This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Three suicide bombers target Kabul Afghanistan funeral for previous victims **** Mourners in Kabul run for safety Saturday after an explosion at a funeral (CNN) Six people were killed and 87 wounded in coordinated suicide bombing explosions at three sites in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Saturday, targeting a funeral for Mohammad Salim Izadyar. Other reports indicate that as many as 20 people were killed. Izadyar was among six people killed and dozens injured on Friday by Afghan security forces during anti-government demonstrations. The demonstrators were demanding the resignation of Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani for failure to protect the people, following a huge truck bombing on Wednesday that kill 100 people and injured hundreds more. President Ashraf Ghani made a televised appeal for national unity: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The country is under attack. We must stay strong and > united. ... > > Terrorist groups plot to sow chaos. Their aim is to create poor > governance and disorder in communities. We must not let ourselves > fall into the trap that the enemies have brought to our > country."<END QUOTE>[/indent] No one has claimed credit for either Wednesday's attack or Saturday's attack. Nonetheless, it's widely believed that the Taliban were responsible, particularly the Haqqani Network, but that neither wants to take credit because of the massive carnage of civilians, contrary to the Taliban's cultivated image of wonderful people merely fighting the infidels in the US and Nato. Khaama Press (Kabul) and Tolo News (Kabul) and CNN Related Articles
**** **** Afghanistan seethes with renewed anger over the attacks **** Kabul, Afghanistan, has now had three deadly incidents in four days, killing hundreds of people and injuring many hundreds more. People are seething with anger at the Ashraf Ghani government. Wednesday's and Saturday's attacks took place in what are supposed to be the most secure parts of Kabul. Friday's victims were killed by the government security forces. It's clear that no one is immune to the rising violence in the city. Kabul was once considered the most secure part of Afghanistan, but now it seems to be the most dangerous. As we described yesterday, the attacks on Wednesday and Friday are bringing back memories of Afghanistan's bloody civil war of 1991-96. That war was fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. That same ethnic split divided the two sides in Afghanistan during the 2001 Afghan war, where the US attacked the Taliban, with the help and support of Afghanistan's Northern Alliance. Saturday's funeral was for Salim Izadyar. He is the son of Mohammad Alan Izadyar, the deputy speaker of the Afghan senate and former Northern Alliance warlord who fought against the Taliban in 2001. Many of the people attending the funeral were honoring Salim, as well as his father. It seems likely that the Taliban were targeting the funeral guests for that reason. Another person attending the funeral was Abdullah Abdullah, the Chief Executive of Afghanistan. In 2014, at US Secretary of State John Kerry's suggestion, Abdullah and Ghani became "co-presidents" of a sort. The intention was to resolve a continuing governmental crisis at the time, but an analyst, Baker Atyani, says that the chaos caused by this co-presidency is leading to power struggles within the Afghan government, and that's leading to the violence. Ghani is a Pashtun while Abdullah is of mixed Pashtun-Tajik heritage, having supported the Northern Alliance. As we wrote yesterday, Afghanistan is entering a generational Awakening era, and this ethnic violence will only increase. The two sides that respectively became the Taliban and the Northern Alliance ended their war in 1996. Those people are at peace, but their children are not. The dilemma for the US and for that Nato coalition fighting in Afghanistan is how to extricate themselves. The US is still policeman of the world, and completely abandoning Afghanistan would be viewed as similar to the Chicago police force completely abandoning South Chicago because the fighting cannot be stopped. Unfortunately, the alternative is remaining in Afghanistan, even increasing the number of troops, even though there will never be peace between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance. France 24 and BBC and Arab News and National Interest Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kabul, Afghanistan, Mohammad Salim Izadyar, Mohammad Alan Izadyar, Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah, Taliban, Haqqani Network, Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Baker Atyani Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 5-Jun-17 World View -- US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf - John J. Xenakis - 06-04-2017 *** 5-Jun-17 World View -- US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf on Iraq-Syria border This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US and Iran-backed troops head for confrontation at al-Tanf on Iraq-Syria border **** Al-Tanf is on the Syrian side of Iraq's al-Waleed border crossing, and is on the strategic Route 1 highway between Baghdad and Damascus The United States military is increasing its "combat power" in southern Syria around the American military training camp in al-Tanf, a Syrian town on the border with Iraq, on the Syrian side of Iraq's al-Waleed border crossing. The military buildup is in response to the approach of Iran-backed Shia forces from Iraq and the Syrian regime. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that the Shia forces are backed by Russian paratroopers. Col. Ryan Dillon, a US military spokesman said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We have increased our presence and our footprint and > prepared for any threat that is presented by the pro-regime > forces."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Dillon said of the Iranian-backed forces being massed, "We see that as a threat." There are 150 US troops in the al-Tanf base. There's already been one deadly confrontation, as we reported two weeks ago. A pro-Syrian regime convoy was headed in the direction of the al-Tanf camp. US warplanes were scrambled in a "show of force" to dissuade the convoy from proceeding further. That show of force was only partially successful, as five of the vehicles continued approaching the base. In response, American warplanes launched a series of airstrikes against the military convoy, destroying all the vehicles. It's not known whether there were any casualties. It's believed that the militia forces in the convoy were not from the regular Syrian army, but were Shia militias coming either directly from Iraq or from Iran or from Iran's puppet Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. This is the situation that the US military is confronting. Al-Tanf is on the strategically important Route 1 highway that connects Baghdad to Damascus. Iran's objective is for Shia forces from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and the Syrian regime to control the entire length of Route 1, so that Iran can easily supply weapons and transfer militias to the Syrian regime and to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US administration under President Trump is opposed to allowing Iran to expand its military presence in this way. Al-Tanf is in a "deconfliction area," as specified by agreements reached among Russia, Iran and Turkey in peace talks held recently in Astana, Kazakhstan. The Iran-backed forces headed for al-Tanf are actually in violation of the of the Astana agreement that Iran signed. Reuters and Al Monitor and ARA News (Syria Kurds) and Ahlul Bayt (Iran) Related Articles
**** **** Iran-backed forces massing near the al-Tanf American base **** The US Defense Department confirmed last week that hundreds of Iranian-backed Shia militiamen, including troops of Syrian regime president Bashar al-Assad, are massing near the American training base near al-Tanf. In response, US planes over the weekend dropped 90,000 leaflets on the Iranian-backed militias: The text reads: 1. Any movement toward al-Tanf will be seen as hostile intent and we will defend our forces. Return to Zaza Checkpoint. 2. You are within an established deconfliction zone, leave the area immediately. Return to Zaza Checkpoint So far, these and other warnings have been ignored. The US military believes that Iran's Quds Force plans to take control of large regions of Syria now controlled by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), once ISIS is defeated in its two remaining strongholds, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria. However, the US military consider the Iranian militias to be a threat to American forces. According to Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis: > [indent]<QUOTE>"We continue to see massing [of forces] and we are > concerned about that. These patrols are unacceptable and threaten > coalition forces."<END QUOTE>[/indent] He added that American forces are not looking for a conflict, but that they would defend themselves. Kurdistan 24 and Asharq Al-Awsat (28-May) and Al-Alam (Iran) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, al-Tanf, al-Waleed, Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, Ryan Dillon, Jeff Davis, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2017 (06-05-2017, 10:26 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > Instead of enjoying Ramadan feasts after each day of fasting, far I agree with you. It's all unbelievably sad. I write about it every day, and a lot of it is extremely depressing. I just try to pretend it's happening on some other planet, and I console myself with the fact that I'm old enough so that death will be a blessing anyway. 6-Jun-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2017 *** 6-Jun-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis **** Doha, Qatar, skyline As I reported two weeks ago, years of bitter relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar came out in the open when Trump's Mideast visit triggered a sharp split between the two supposed allies. On Monday, the split widened much further, with hostile words being replaced by hostile actions. Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic relations with Qatar, closed the land border between the two countries, and closed Saudi airspace to any airline flights to or from Qatar. Other Arab nations immediately followed suit. Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations with Qatar and imposed similar economic sanctions. The countries all ordered their citizens out of Qatar and gave Qataris abroad 14 days to return home. The island nation of Maldives announced later Monday that it, too, would cut ties to Qatar. If the diplomatic conflict continues, the economic impact on Qatar is expected to be enormous. Qatar has only one land border, the one with Saudi Arabia, and 99% of all Qatar's food, as well as other supplies, come through that border. The announcement immediately triggered a panic in Qatar, with people in supermarkets buying up all available food, in anticipation of food shortages and high inflation. It's estimated that Qatar has only three days' worth of food supply on hand in the country. Some analysts are predicting that Qatar will have to give in to Saudi Arabia's demands to end the crisis. Other analysts believe that the split may destabilize Qatar's government, making a coup likely. However, other countries in the region, including Kuwait, Oman and Turkey, are calling for restraint, and are offering to mediate to resolve the dispute. AP and Al-Jazeera and Washington Post and Bloomberg Related Articles
**** **** Arab nations' split caused by Qatar's relations with Muslim Brotherhood and Iran **** As I described in my lengthy analysis two weeks ago, the same countries recalled their ambassadors from Qatar in March of 2014, although diplomatic relations were restored later that year. At that time there was an extremely bitter split among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is an organization of Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian Gulf. The reasons for the split then are the same as the reasons for the split now: Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and with Iran. Although Qatar cannot be considered an ally of Iran, there are reasons why Qatar wants to have good relations with Iran. One reason is that there over a million Hindu migrants working in Qatar, and Hindus have historically had good relations with Shia Muslims. Another reason is that Qatar and Iran share the biggest natural gas field in the world, making Qatar the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, and with Iran expanding its own LNG exports with the western sanctions removed. These reasons do not make Qatar and Iran allies, but they do mean that Qatar has to get along with Iran, at a time when the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are becoming increasingly vitriolic. Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood have also contributed to split. There are two competing schools of conservative Sunni Muslim ideology. Extreme versions of either of these competing ideologies are used to justify Sunni terror acts. One is the Salafist Wahhabi ideology, which has its roots in Saudi Arabia, and is the official Saudi religion. The other is the Muslim Brotherhood ideology, which has its roots in Egypt, and is strongly supported by Qatar and Turkey. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, so Qatar supports Hamas as well. Although the two ideologies have succeeded in coexisting for decades, they've been growing apart, and the differences are now coming to a head. The differences have been exacerbated by a number of events, including the 2013 Egypt government coup that removed the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi, the 2014 Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, and civil war in Syria. European and American governments have been pressuring the Saudi government to do something to stop terrorism by al-Qaeda linked groups or by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). According to some analysts, the reason for the split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is that the Saudis are using Qatar as a scapegoat in response to that pressure. However, now that the split has occurred, it seems likely that the pressure will go in the opposite direction. Doha, Qatar's capital city, is a major airline hub, and the Saudi sanctions have thrown airline schedules in the entire region into chaos. There are 200,000 Egyptian workers in Qatar, and they will have to be withdrawn within two weeks, causing further chaos around the region. The economic sanctions on Qatar are going to affect the economies of the entire region. And the split is going to push Qatar closer to Iran. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. With appropriate generational research and analysis, the split between the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood can be used to determine which ethnic groups will be fighting each other. I certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an analysis by myself, but any college student interested in this kind of analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast. Al Arabiya and AP and BBC and Israel National News (13-May-2014) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Iran, Gaza, Hamas, Syria Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 7-Jun-17 World View -- How to stop lone wolf attacks in London and Manchester - John J. Xenakis - 06-06-2017 *** 7-Jun-17 World View -- How to stop lone wolf attacks in London and Manchester This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Qatar crisis triggered by $1 billion ransom payment to Iran and al-Qaeda **** The 26 men from the Qatari hunting party that were kidnapped in December 2015 and returned in April 2017 for a $1 billion random payment We've been reporting on the growing Mideast crisis, with numerous Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia, breaking diplomatic relations with Qatar, and imposing harsh commercial sanctions that threaten Qatar's economy. It's been widely reported that the crisis was triggered by President Donald Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, but new reports indicate that the reason was completely different. It seems that in April, Qatar paid $700 million to Iran and Shia militias supported by the Syrian regime. Furthermore, up to $300 million more was paid to the al-Qaeda linked group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization). The ransom was paid to gain the freedom of 26 people in a hunting party that included members of the Qatari royal family, who had been kidnapped in southern Iraq in December 2015. The Saudis only learned of the ransom payment in the last couple of weeks. HTS is the latest name change for what was originally called Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) when it was officially the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. Then, in July 2016, Jabhat al-Nusra announced that it was splitting with al-Qaeda, and was changing its name to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria). The reason given was that the group wanted to create an alliance with "moderate" militias fighting against Bashar al-Assad, but could not do so because none of them wanted to be linked to al-Qaeda. Then, in January of this year, JFS did merge with four other militias, and called itself Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. An unnamed official is quoted as saying: > [indent]<QUOTE>"So, if you add that up [the $300 million paid to HTS] > to the other $700 million they paid to Iran and its proxies, that > means Qatar actually spent about a billion dollars on this crazy > deal."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Well, this "crazy deal" was apparently the last straw for the Saudi authorities, because it confirmed all the claims that Qatar was funding al-Qaeda and Iranian extremism, although not in the way that it had been reported. The Saudis were so furious, they initiated the diplomatic break. Many in the mainstream media have said that the Trump visit "caused" the split by "emboldening" the Saudis. That concept never made sense to me. I said that Trump's visit "triggered" the split, meaning that the forces were in place for the split to occur sooner or later, when the time was right. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is an important distinction. Journalists like to take the easy road of saying that politicians, especially the US president, cause all the events that happen in the world. But the things that I write about are caused by generational pressures that build up over years and decades, and politicians have nothing to do with them, except perhaps to trigger an event that was going to happen anyway. So now president Trump believes that he's going to bring an end to Islamist terrorism, and he's going to bring peace to the Israelis and the Palestinians. I'm going to respond in pretty much the same way that I responded to President Bush's "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" in May 2003. Just as Islamist terrorism is going to continue and grow, Jews and Arabs are going to refight the bloody war that occurred in 1948 with the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The generational pressures have been building to this war for decades, as if a huge tsunami was launched in 1948 and is just about to reach shore. And the war cannot be stopped by a politician any more that you can stop the tsunami with a bucket. Times of Israel and Daily Mail (London) Related Articles
**** **** How to stop lone wolf attacks in London and Manchester **** Mr. Nazir Afzal was Chief Crown Prosecutor of the Crown Prosecution Service for North West England from 2011–15. A Muslim himself, his tenure was controversial because he vigorously prosecuted Muslim who had committed crimes, and he was critical of the Muslim community for not taking responsibility for stopping jihadist attacks. He was interviewed on the BBC World Service on the question of what authorities should do to prevent lone wolf attacks, after the recent terror attacks in London and Manchester. Afzal is highly critical of the political correctness that causes far too much tolerance of extremism in the United Kingdom (my transcription): > [indent]<QUOTE>"People have been treading very carefully around > issues. We've mentioned before, talked about honor killings, > talked about grooming gangs, these are things I've prosecuted in > my career over the last quarter century. > > And sadly they invariably involve the minority communities, > predominately, and they also predominately involve the Muslim > community. > > On each occasion, much of the reason why things weren't being > processed, or justice wasn't being delivered effectively, was > because people were thinking it was too difficult, or there were > perhaps understandable concerns about being seen as racist or > religiously discriminatory in some way, shape or > form."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The question being discussed is why young Muslims are being radicalized, or turned into extremists who may one day conduct terror attacks. Afzal said that his own Muslim beliefs are highly personal, and he contrasted his Muslim beliefs to those of the jihadists: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Islamists believe that they should be able to impose > their version [of Islam] on everybody else, and much of that sadly > is either preachers who are from abroad, and who are able to carry > on proselytizing this kind of thing. Or online."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Afzal's point is that if a young person is being exposed to this kind of jihadist proselytizing over the internet, then there's no way for authorities to get ahead of the problem and prevent radicalization, since there's no way to stop someone from absorbing these ideas over the internet from the privacy of his bedroom. So then what should authorities do to prevent the radicalization of Muslim youth? Who in the community should the authorities be talking to? Afzal says that the authorities are talking to the wrong people. > [indent]<QUOTE>"The lazy thing the government does - and by this I > mean local government, national government, and anybody in > authority - policing you name it - hospitals - anybody - they go > to the usual suspects, and they are invariably what is commonly > called 'the community leader.' > > Now I can assure you that we [Muslims] don't have community > leaders. The majority of Muslims in the UK are under 25, they're > female, and they're from relatively low income backgrounds. But > these community leaders are invariably male, middle class, > professionals, maybe over 40 or 50. And so when you talk to young > people, and I've been doing a lot of that, they say, they don't > have a voice. They say that nobody listens to them. They say > that the people you -- you as in the state -- are listening to > have no sense of what needs to happen."<END QUOTE>[/indent] According to Afzal, authorities should be supporting and talking to Muslim women's groups, because these groups live in the communities, they know the families, and they know which children are likely to become radicalized: > [indent]<QUOTE>"To answer your second question, who should they be > talking to, yes, they should be talking to those voices that don't > have one. And the people who are doing the work. My experience > is, and i've worked with dozens of women's groups around the > country -- Muslim women's groups around the UK -- they're doing to > phenomenal work. They already have access to families, they're > already trusted in those communities. Once they identify somebody > within a family, for example, who might be at risk of > radicalization or extremism or any other vulnerability, they > insure that they're given levels of support which protect not just > that child, but protect the rest of us. And they are doing this > on a shoestring. ... > > [The] signs are only indicators. You don't know until you've > actually spoken to somebody whether they are being radicalized or > not. You have to understand that so many people in this UK, and > elsewhere I imagine, are having some kind of identity crisis. Many > many others are suddenly falling into drugs. We have a > significant problem in the UK with Muslim communities and drugs. > You know, time and time again, I've tried to get major Muslim > representative bodies to talk about issues like Muslims in prison, > and women Muslims in prison. And they rarely ever do -- I can't > think of any example actually where they've talked about it. > There's a charity for example, Muslim women in Prison, and that > charity is close to closing. and that tells me that we have our > priorities wrong."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This story about lone wolf attacks in Britain is paired with the preceding story about the Qatar split because from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, they both make the same point: That people in authority, whether politicians or "community leaders," are not really controlling major events. Events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people. In the Mideast, it's the rise in popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. In Britain, it's the rise of a new generation of young people, 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants from Muslim countries. Back in 2005, when the 7/7 London subway bombings occurred, I was always struck by the immense sadness of the parents of the kids who had perpetrated the bombings. They had no idea what their kids were planning. One Muslim man said that he was worried about the attitudes of his own children. "The bombers were just like us. And if they're just like us, then more of them could be anywhere, couldn't they?" One of the bombers was 22-year-old Shehzad Tanweer. Months later, his father, Mohammed Mumtaz Tanweer, spoke out for the first time: > [indent]<QUOTE>"All the bombings and killings were awful. Only the > group of four [bombers] or God alone knows why they carried out > this terrible act." He added: "As far as I can understand, my son > was more British in his orientation than anything else. He has > planned his career in sport. Even on the night before he died, he > was playing cricket."<END QUOTE>[/indent] One can barely imagine the immense sadness of a parent whose child commits suicide carrying out one of these heinous acts. I don't know if Nazir Afzal's suggestion of working with Muslim women's groups would work, but it makes enough sense that it's worth a try. Daily Mail (London) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Nazir Afzal, London, Manchester, Muslim Brotherhood, 7/7 London subway bombings, Shehzad Tanweer, Mohammed Mumtaz Tanweer Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |