Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims hoax - Ragnarök_62 - 06-22-2016 [quote pid='3534' dateline='1466564607'] > sent a copy over to my backup drive as per my policy for non > operating system data on my Linux box. The only fly in the > ointment is that it's copyrighted. That means I can't send the > stuff to a 3rd party and of course you can always enforce a "take > down" and I'd have to remove the stuff I saved. I would of course > comply with any take down notice as required by law. [/quote] Quote:Thanks.No problem. Quote:Also, I'm not sure what a "take down" is exactly, but I think the Take down is where I'd have to delete something if it was copyrighted and I got a request to do so. RE: 22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims hoax - John J. Xenakis - 06-22-2016 (06-22-2016, 10:02 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Take down is where I'd have to delete something if it was Well, the only reason that I even know that you have the files is that you said so. Tens of thousands of people will read that article, on my web site, in e-mail, on this web site, and on the Breitbart web site, and any of them could download the files. If I wanted to "take down" and reverse the request, there is no practical way of determining who actually downloaded the files and where to find them. So I wouldn't even have a way to notify them, let alone make some kind of demand. In 15 years, I've received two requests to remove something from my web site. One was the Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction picture, which is all over the internet anyway. The other was a PDF file from a financial firm that someone secretly forwarded to me and I made available to my readers. In both cases, I received an e-mail message threatening legal action. In both cases, I ignored the e-mail message. In both cases, I never heard anything more. For the most part, copyright laws have been almost completely invalidated by the internet. Even if you make an entire book available as a PDF file on your web site, the author or publisher would have to incur at least hundreds or thousands of dollars in legal fees to get it taken down if a polite request is ignored or refused. The triggering issue is whether someone is making money on the copyrighted item. If someone is making thousands of dollars on a copyrighted item, then spending the legal fees might be worth it. In my case, where I make no money whatsoever, it makes no sense at all to spend hundreds or thousands of dollars in legal fees to get me to delete a picture. And if they did, then they know that I'd replace the picture with a statement about what mean, nasty idiots they are. You wrote in your previous message, "That means I can't send the stuff to a 3rd party...." Since the 3rd party could theoretically download the same files from my web site himself, I don't see any legal reason that's stopping anyone from sending the files to a 3rd party. Indeed, the whole objective in making the files available is so that the files will continue to exist if I get hit by a truck tomorrow, so I would actually encourage people people to send them to an appropriate third party, if desired. So all in all, Ragnarök, I don't think you need have any fears in saving the files or send them to a third party. If you published my book under your own name, and you made a lot of money doing it, then you'd probably hear from me about it, but I don't think that's going to happen. 23-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey drops lifting of Gaza blockade demand - John J. Xenakis - 06-22-2016 *** 23-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey drops lifting of Gaza blockade demand for normalization with Israel This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey and Israel close to restoring diplomatic relations **** Proposed seaport on artificial island off coast of Gaza Reports indicate that Turkey and Israel are close to restoring diplomatic relations which deteriorated sharply in 2010 after the "Mavi Marmara" incident, during which nine citizens of Turkey were killed by Israel's military. Turkey was the first Muslim country to formally recognize the state of Israel in 1949, and relations where generally good for decades. When Turkey's current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came to power in 2002 as prime minister, relations became more tense, but still cordial. Relations seriously deteriorated, starting in 2008, over Israel's relationship with Gaza. Israel imposed a total blockade of Gaza, and Egypt also closed the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Israel, triggering violent protests by the Gazans. (From January 2008: "In dramatic scene, 60,000 Gazans pour into Egypt through holes blasted through border wall" ) Tensions grew in Gaza through 2008. Hamas, the terrorist group governing Gaza, was launching dozens of rockets into Israeli territory every day, while Israeli air strikes struck weapons sites in Gaza, but also killed dozens of Gazans. In December, the exchanges of fire escalated into a full-scale war (Operation Cast Lead), beginning with air strikes followed by a full-scale ground invasion. At the end of January 2009, Israel's president Shimon Peres and Erdogan got into a passionate debate at the World Economic Forum in Davos. After a heated exchange, a furious Erdogan walked out of the meeting, and went home to a hero's welcome when he returned to Turkey. In June 2010, international activists send an aid flotilla to Gaza to break Israel's blockade. Israel's military intercepted the flotilla and boarded the lead boat, the Mavi Marmara. In the ensuing fracas, nine Turkish citizens were killed. The entire incident was a disaster for Israel. ( "1-Jun-2010 News -- Wide condemnation of Israel over Gaza flotilla" ) As a result, Turkey effectively cut off almost all relations with Israel. It's only now, six years later, that reports indicate that a formula has been found for reconciliation. It's believed that the situation in Syria has caused Erdogan to be more willing to compromise than he has been in the past. There are three reasons:
These reasons have apparently convinced Erdogan to compromise with Israel. Negotiators from Turkey and Israel are expected to complete a draft agreement in the next few days. Jerusalem Post and Washington Post and AP (30-Jan-2009) **** **** Turkey drops demand for lifting the blockade of Gaza **** Erdogan has consistently made three demands of Israel before relations could be restored. Israel would have to formally apologize to Turkey, and Israel did that in 2013. Israel would have to pay compensation to the families of the Turks who died in the Mavi Marmara confrontation, and reports indicate that Israel has agreed to pay $20 million. The third requirement was that Israel must lift the blockade of Gaza. Turkey has repeatedly said that this is an absolute requirement. Israel has repeatedly said that lifting the blockade was absolutely impossible. According to a report on RFI, the Turkey has dropped the requirement to lift the blockade, based on a compromise:
Jerusalem Post and Hurriyet (Ankara) and i24News (Israel) and Deutsche Welle **** **** Proposal for offshore seaport raises controversy **** The third item in the list above, the proposal for an offshore seaport has been around for a while, and is extremely controversial. The proposal was first put forward in 2011 by Israel's transportation minister Yisrael Katz. The seaport would be built in international waters, located on a 5-km-long artificial island. The port will be connected to the land by a detachable bridge, which will be under Israeli supervision. Israel would be able to close the bridge at any time, if necessary. According to Katz: [indent]<QUOTE>"I do not think it is right to lock up two million people without any connection to the world. Israel has no interest to make life harder for the population there. But because of security concerns we can’t build an airport or seaport in Gaza."<END QUOTE>[/indent] However, there are plenty of critics. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is said to be opposed to the project, since it would cut the final strings connecting Gaza to the West Bank. Palestinians criticize the project as another excuse to delay removing the Gaza blockade. An Israeli commentator, Martin Sherman calls the proposal "so glaringly absurd that it transcends what you mistakenly believed was the pinnacle of imbecility," and says that it would encourage further terrorism. Oil Price and Washington Post and Israel Hayom (27-May) **** **** Russia improves military ties with Israel, will not veto relationship with Turkey **** At a meeting in Moscow on June 7, Russia's president Vladimir Putin and Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to strengthen military ties, and to hold joint naval and air military exercises during the summer. At the same meeting, Putin said that he felt "exceptionally positive" about efforts to restore relations between Israel and Turkey. Putin said, "We believe that any movement of these states and peoples toward each other will have a positive impact on the international situation in general. We welcome this process." Bloomberg (8-June) and Debka (10-June) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Israel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mavi Marmara, Gaza, Operation Cast Lead, Shimon Peres, Germany, Hamas, Nato, Yisrael Katz, Mahmoud Abbas, West Bank, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 06-23-2016 You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons, The Merkel administration (in Germany), the current french administration, the current polish administration, and the Aquino administration would have to handle the crisis, but these assertions are nonsense. These assertions are nonsense because none of the administrations that I've just mentioned would be in power at the time we enter the main phase of the crisis. You have never mentioned for example and seemingly refuse to make any mention in regards to how the Trump administration in the US, the Social Democrats in Germany, the Le Pen administration in France, the Law and Justice administration in Poland, and the Duterte administration would handle the crisis? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 06-23-2016 (06-23-2016, 08:37 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons, I've never said how any of those politicians would handle the crisis. Politicians are completely unpredictable. I don't know what they're going to do next week, let alone in a crisis. Based on core generational theory, what we know is that when Regeneracy events begin to occur, and the country faces an existential threat, then the population will panic out of fear for the existence of their nation and its way of life, and they'll put aside their political differences and unite behind the country's leader. Beyond that, the scenario can only be guessed at. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 06-23-2016 (06-23-2016, 09:10 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(06-23-2016, 08:37 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > You keep mentioning how the Obama administration, the Clintons, No one is going to unite behind Merkel, Obama and Hillary. People would unite behind the leaders I mentioned in the second half of my paragraph but not behind the current leaders. For example If Russia invaded Europe today the German people would demand Merkel's ouster then unite behind someone else. If war broke out with Russia or China Today, Obama would be turned out of office immediately and the people would force the government to proclaim Trump their commander and chief. Because If the existence of the country of even of western civilization itself would be placed at stake. Then that battle would not be on behalf of world globalism and the nonsense of a "world without war" or "a world without power politics". If Hillary is president she would be thrown just out like in my example using Obama, for the same reasons. 24-Jun-16 World View -- South China Sea: China's list of supporters delusional - John J. Xenakis - 06-23-2016 *** 24-Jun-16 World View -- South China Sea: China's list of supporters is found to be delusional This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China claims that 60 countries support its South China Sea policy **** China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua Chunying Any day now, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a United Nations international court in the Hague is supposed to issue a ruling on a case brought by the Philippines against China on the merits of China's claims to the entire South China Sea. The case is brought under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China claims doesn't apply to them. China always says that its claims "are indisputable," and this is clearly a lie, since the claims are widely disputed. In fact, China's claims are at least delusional, and may even be fabricated, as we reported a few days ago. ( "22-Jun-16 World View -- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax" ) Not only is China delusional about some of their evidence, it now appears that they're also delusional about the kind of support they're getting from the international community. Even though the Court's ruling would be little more than symbolic, and even though there would be no way to enforce the Court's ruling against China, and even though China has already said that it will ignore any ruling, and even though China has bitterly complained about and even threatened the Philippines for even going to the Court in the first place, it's clear that Chinese officials are close to a state of panic over a possible ruling against them. Out of anxiety, China is resorting to a full-court press in the propaganda realm, and are doing everything they can to convince other countries to endorse their position. In particular, China is targeting many distant countries and land-locked countries, with no direct interest in the South China Sea. Last week, at China's regular Foreign Ministry press conference, the following bizarre exchange took place: [indent]<QUOTE>"Q: We notice that the governments of Sierra Leone and Kenya have recently joined in the chorus supporting China's South China Sea position. Nearly 60 countries have publicly endorsed China's stance, and more and more countries have shown their support to China. Is the Chinese government behind this? Is the Chinese government trying to extend its "circle of friends" on the South China Sea issue? A: The South China Sea issue is supposed to be an issue between China and a few littoral countries of the South China Sea. ... [Further comments evading the question] Q: First question, how many countries have publicly endorsed China's position on the South China Sea issue up to now? The previous press conference mentioned 40, but just now a journalist said nearly 60. ... A: On your first question, a journalist just mentioned that nearly 60 countries support China. Compared with seven or eight countries that hold the opposite position, I think the figure itself speaks volumes."<END QUOTE>[/indent] According to the first questioner, unnamed but presumably from Chinese media, said that Sierra Leone and Kenya, as if it matters whether two African country are for or against China. In the second answer, the Foreign Ministry spokesman makes official China's belief that it's supported by 60 countries, with only seven or eight opposed. As we'll see below, these claims are delusional. Why are these numbers even relevant? There is some suggestion that China is trying to line up countries on its side, so that if the Court rules against China, then China can go to the United Nations General Assembly and try to get a vote rejecting the Court's decision. If successful, China could then claim that the United Nations itself has rejected the decision of a United Nations court. Anything is possible, but I would be surprised if anything like a majority of the United Nations members voted to reject the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS is a part of international law that has been used to settle many disputes and keep the peace since the end of World War II, and if UNCLOS is rejected in this case, then it will open up many disputes that were previously thought to be settled. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China's Foreign Ministry (14-Jun) **** **** China cites UNCLOS in disagreement with Japan **** China claims to completely reject the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and has said that this international law may not apply to China's claims in the South China Sea. And yet, in a completely different dispute, China's Foreign Ministry cited UNCLOS in support of its view on the status of Okinotori Islands in relation to a disagreement between Taiwan and Japan. The details of the dispute are not important to us, but here's the beginning of the quote from the Foreign Ministry spokesman: [indent]<QUOTE>"Q: On May 23, the Taiwan authority said that "it does not take a particular stance in legal terms" on whether Okinotori is an island or a reef. It is commented that the new Taiwan administration has gone backwards on the issue of Okinotori, undermining the rights and interests of Taiwan fishermen. How do you comment? A: Okinotori is an isolated reef in the west Pacific distant from the Japanese soil. Pursuant to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Okinotori cannot have the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf. Waters off 12 nautical miles of it are high seas, where all countries are entitled to freedoms on the high seas such as fishing and so forth. On April 2012, the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) adopted the recommendations in regard to the submission made by Japan on the outer limits of its continental shelf, rebuffing Japan's illegal claims based on Okinotori."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's striking that China is appealing to UNCLOS when it's convenient, just a few weeks before a Court decision that it has already rejected, along with UNCLOS. If, as suggested above, China goes ahead with a plan to try to get the UN General Assembly to strike down UNCLOS, you can be certain that the debate will mention China's position on Okinotori. This just adds to a growing picture that Chinese officials are delusional regarding their claims to the South China Sea. China's Foreign Ministry (24-May) and The Diplomat **** **** South China Sea: Which countries are on China's side? **** China is claiming that 60 countries are on China's side, with only seven or eight opposed. However, an analysis by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has done the actual research on this issue. AMTI has searched publicly available, official statements in an effort to determine the real positions taken by countries. What does it mean to be "on China's side"? What AMTI was looking for was not whether countries take one side or the other on China's claims in the South China Sea, but whether countries take one side or the other on whether the Court's ruling will be binding. AMTI has identified 57 countries that China appears to be its supporters. Of those, 8 have publicly confirmed their support, 4 have denied Beijing’s claim of support, and 45 have remained publicly silent or have issued statements that are considerably vaguer than indicated by China. In contrast, 11 countries plus the European Union have said that the arbitral award will be legally binding and have called on both China and the Philippines to respect it. The AMTI has divided these countries into four groups:
So China's Foreign Ministry has it backwards: Lots of nations provide no support for China, while only seven are supporting China. Two of these nations, Afghanistan and Lesotho, are landlocked. Four of them, The Gambia, Kenya, Niger and Sudan, are far away in Africa. Vanuatu is a South Pacific island, once again far from the South China Sea. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) and The Diplomat **** **** Cognitive dissonance and doubling down in China **** From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, cognitive dissonance explains many of history's greatest disasters. The term "cognitive dissonance" refers to the mental problems that occur when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by real life events. The literature contains numerous examples of what happens. Some of the most dramatic examples are those who believe that God end the world on a specific day, and only true believers will be saved. In many cases, people quit their jobs, sell all their belongings and settle all their affairs, and then wait for the named day. When the world doesn't end, they have to deal with the consequences of their actions. According to psychologist Leon Festinger's 1957 book "A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance," there are two kinds of behaviors that are common. Some admit they were wrong and devote themselves to returning to their previous lives. Others "double down." They say that they were right all along, but that God decided to give the world one more chance. They then devote their entire lives to proselytizing. It's possible that several religions began this way. China's cognitive dissonance is an extremely dangerous situation. China's population apparently widely believes that China's South China Sea claims are "indisputable." This is already clearly wrong, and will be publicly proven wrong if, as expected, the Court rules against China. As we described a few days ago, China has put forward "ironclad proof" in the form of evidence that's at best delusional and at worst fabricated. And China's rejection of UNCLOS is, in my opinion, not going to be widely supported, especially after China itself has cited UNCLOS when convenient. A commenter to my last article wrote the following: [indent]<QUOTE>"Since Sun Tzu introduced his Art of War in the 5th century BC, making false claims, as a form of deceiving an opponent to gain advantage, has been prevalent in China since his time. In particular, to eliminate the influence of Indian Buddhism in China in the Three Kingdom Period (220-280), Chinese historian Yu Huan stated in his work ‘Weilue’ (lit: ‘A Brief History of Wei’): ‘The Buddhist Sutra are on the whole similar to the Canon of Lao-tzu in content. That is because when Lao-tzu left the passes in the west, he traversed the Western Regions and reached India, where he converted the barbarians into Buddhists’ (see Kenneth Ch’en’s ‘Buddhism in China: A Historical Survey’ published by Princeton University Press (1964, page 51). In this context, China’s "Ironclad Proof" is no exception. However, it is a clear indication that Beijing has been so desperate to use whatever it could imagine to support for its nine-dash line claim."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This commenter confirms what we've already known: China is doing everything to prepare for war, and probably already considers itself to be at war. There is no chance at all that Chinese officials will admit that they've been wrong, or that its population will change its opinions. China is already heavily militarizing the South China Sea, and is already attacking Vietnam's and Philippines' ships with its military. China will react to its cognitive dissonance by doubling down. At best, this will mean a great deal vitriolic anger on the part of Chinese officials. Eventually, it will mean an irreversible military action that will spiral into full-scale war. Wired (Aug 2010) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, Permanent Court of Arbitration, Philippines, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, Japan, Taiwan, Okinotori Islands, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, AMTI, Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, cognitive dissonance, Leon Festinger, Sun Tzu, Art of War Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics - John J. Xenakis - 06-24-2016 *** 25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Successful 'Brexit' referendum vote throws UK and EU into political chaos **** Rock of Gibraltar with Spain the background (AFP) Few people doubt that the surprise passage of Britain's "Brexit" referendum, directing that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland should withdraw from the European Union after being a member since 1975, will cause a great deal of political chaos in the next few weeks and months. Pro-Brexit politicians claim the chaos is only temporary, and it will soon settle down, and the result will be better for the UK. Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing pro-Brexit Ukip party, said exuberantly, "Let June go down in history of our independence day!" Others pro-Brexit politicians shouted, "We've taken our country back!" From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the wish that the chaos will end is fantasy. The "financial crisis" of 2007-2009 set in motion generational forces that have caused the chaos to increase every month, every year. That's true in Europe, with the euro crisis, the migrant crisis, and the Ukraine crisis; it's true in the Mideast, with the Arab Awakening, the Syria war, the Yemen war, the rise of ISIS, the collapse in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, and the meltdowns in Libya and Egypt; and it's true in Asia with China's belligerence in the East and South China Sea. This is worldwide trend that's been growing for a decade, and in this generational Crisis era, it's literally impossible for the growth in chaos to stop. As I've been writing for years, nationalism, racism and xenophobia have been growing in countries around the world, as they do in every generational Crisis era. All these factors played into the surprise Brexit vote, in the form of anti-German, anti-French and anti-migrant sentiment. Furious voters wanted to get revenge against the élite in both the UK and the EU and "send a message" that they're not going to take it anymore. There have been some reports of "buyer's remorse" -- that at least some of the pro-Brexit voters wanted to send a message, but didn't really want to leave the EU. Nonetheless, the deed appears to be done. So the pro-Brexit people who expect the EU and the UK to settle down into a non-chaotic "new normal" are making major misjudgments. They're especially overlooking the following: Just as they were angry, just as they were expressing their nationalism, racism, and xenophobia, just as they wanted revenge, the people who lost are also angry, and also will want to get revenge by expressing their nationalism, racism, and xenophobia. The question really is not WHETHER they're going to seek revenge. The question is HOW they're going to seek revenge. Here are some possibilities:
If you were to ask a UK or EU politician whether any of the events in the above list are likely to happen, he would tell you, "No, no chance whatsoever!" However, if you had asked a UK or EU politician a few months ago (or even a few days ago) whether the UK would leave the EU, you would have gotten a similar response. As I like to point out, almost every day, something new happens that a few years ago you would have to have been crazy to believe would ever happen. Whether it's in America, Europe, Africa, the Mideast or Asia, things that could never happen are happening. In fact, every one of the items listed above is quite reasonable, once you realize how angry, how nationalistic, and how xenophobic people have become in many countries. That anger could be translated into anything from an election referendum to a war in a matter of days. The European Union was formed after two world wars and the Great Depression. Institutions were put into place with the specific purpose of preventing a new war between European nations, and preventing the financial abuse that led to the Great Depression. Today, with the survivors of World War II gone, anger, nationalism, xenophobia, and stupidity are back in full force. I can't tell you which of the above events will actually happen, but I would be very surprised if none of them happened. At the very least, expect more chaos, and one new crisis after another. Guardian (London) and Reuters and BBC and Vox and TRT World (Istanbul) **** **** Global stock markets plummet after Brexit surprise **** A global stock selloff occurred on Friday, following the Brexit vote. The plunge began in Asia, spread across Europe, and then to North America. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 600 points. Britain's sterling currency fell 10% against the US dollar, to its weakest value in 31 years. Money poured into safe havens, notably US Treasury bonds. The demand for the bonds increased their prices, which therefore lowered their yields (interest rates) dramatically. The question is: What happens next? Will stock prices continue to fall when the markets open again on Monday? Are we in a stock market crash? S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.22 on June 24, indicating a huge and growing stock market bubble (WSJ) First off, we have to say that it's possible. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (June 24) was at an astronomically high 24.22. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. Second, let's take a look at the 1929 stock market crash. The DJIA fell 24% on October 28-29, but then regained 18% on the next two days. That would more accurately be called a "panic" rather than a "crash." The actual crash continued for years, until mid-1932, when it had fallen to 90% of its peak value on September 3, 1929. So when we say that "it's possible," we mean that there might still be some sort of panic next week, but a real crash would take place over a longer period of time. The way it works is through forced selling. What happened in 1929 is that investors had borrowed money (on margin) to purchase stocks. When the price of stocks bought on margin start to fall, then the stock broker gives the investor a "margin call," which means that the investor has to come up with more money. This usually means selling some stock, and if a lot of investors are forced to sell, then stock prices fall again, and there's a vicious cycle of stock prices falling, margin calls, stock selling, stock prices falling, and so forth. This can go on for years, and it did from 1929-1932. To this day, nobody knows what triggered the panic of 1929, and there's certainly no way to tell what will trigger the next panic, or whether Brexit will do so. What we do know is that the current stock market bubble will burst, because every bubble in history always has, despite claims that "this time it's different." So it's possible that Brexit will be the trigger that causes the current global stock market and credit bubble to burst. What's important about the current situation is that thousands of investors were caught completely by surprise by Brexit referendum win. Many of them had invested heavily in sterling currency and the stock market, expecting that the values of these investments would increase when the Brexit referendum lost. So many investors were forced to sell when the Brexit referendum won in order to service debts that they'd incurred to make the investments in the first place, just like the 1929 margin calls. So it's possible that enough investors were caught by surprise and a new vicious cycle will occur. It has to happen sometime, and it may or may not be now. However, there's one other thing we know. Central banks around the world are well aware of this vicious cycle possibility, and reports indicate that they're "printing money" and pouring into the markets in order to head off exactly this kind of vicious cycle. The Bank of England, European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China have already said they were ready to provide liquidity if needed to ensure global market stability. However, one sign that they're running out of the ability to do that is the huge amount of debt based on negative interest rates. ( "15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues" ) So maybe the central banks will succeed this time or maybe they won't. We'll have to wait until next week to find out. Reuters and Washington Post and CNBC and AAP KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, European Union, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Nigel Farage, Ukip, Scotland, England, Gibraltar, Ireland, Gaelic, Nine Years War, War of the Spanish Succession, panic, crash, forced selling, price/earnings ratio, Bank of England, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote - John J. Xenakis - 06-25-2016 *** 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** In new escalation, China cuts communications hotline with Taiwan **** Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen China is following up on last month's ominous demands that Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen must explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China. The threatening demands were made just four days after Tsai took office. ( "26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China" ) On Saturday, China announced that it was cutting a communication hotline with Taiwan that was set up last year in the waning days of the previous Ma Ying-jeou administration. Ma is leader of the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party, which supports the "1992 Consensus" that there is "one China," leaving it ambiguous what that means. KMT favors the "one China" principle and unification with mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's claims in the South China Sea. Ma and China's president Xi Jinping held a highly publicized landmark meeting in Singapore on November 7 of last year. The purpose of the meeting was for Xi to support Ma Ying-jeou's bid for reelection in the upcoming January elections. The support didn't help, as Ma's opponent Tsai Ing-wen won overwhelmingly, and took office in May. One outcome of the November 7 meeting was to set up a high-level hotline between Taipei and Beijing to handle emergencies. The hotline was used for the first time on December 30, when officials for both countries exchanged New Year's greetings. The new president, Tsai, is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which in the past has favored Taiwan independence from China. When the DPP was in power prior to 2008, relations between China and Taiwan were so bad that in 2005 Beijing passed an "anti-secession law" saying that China would take military action against Taiwan if there were any moves or speeches in the direction of Taiwan independence from China. In her inauguration speech last month, Tsai said that she "respected" the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but did not say what the common understanding was. This infuriated the Chinese. According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle." So on Saturday, China shut down the hotline that had been set up for emergencies as a result of last year's meeting between Xi and Ma. According to a Chinese official: [indent]<QUOTE>"Because the Taiwan side has been unable to confirm the 1992 consensus that embodies the common political foundation of the one-China principle, the mechanism for contact and communication between the two sides has already been suspended."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This infuriated Taiwanese officials who said that they will not give in to China's "blackmail and coercion." China's action to shut down the hotline was probably triggered by another incident. On Friday, 25 Taiwanese in Cambodia, accused of telecommunications fraud, were extradited to China rather than to Taiwan. China demanded that Cambodia send them to China, since sending them to Taiwan would acknowledge Taiwan's existence as an independent entity. Taiwan responded on Friday by using the hotline to protest the extraditions to China, and accused China of "abducting" Taiwanese citizens saying, "It is inappropriate for China to impede cooperation to fight crime for political factors." One day later, China shut down the hotline. Shanghaiist and AFP and China Post (Taipei - 31-Dec-2015) **** **** Taiwan's politicians respond to the Brexit referendum result **** The success of Britain's Brexit referendum was a shock to the Chinese as much as anyone, but it has special significance for China. If the UK can hold a referendum and leave the European Union, then why can't Taiwan and Hong Kong hold their own referendums and leave China? Wu Ping-jui, an official in the administration of the new president Tsai Ing-wen, said that when China shut down the communications hotline in order to force the Taiwanese to accept its version of the "1992 Consensus," it was tantamount to "blackmail and coercion." He said that China's actions would simply "toughen up Taiwanese determination." Wu then referenced the Brexit referendum. If China demands that Taiwan accept the 1992 consensus, "do they mean for us what to choose? This is not done in any democratic country." He cited the Brexit referendum, in which each and every British citizen was able to show his or her will. An official from the opposition KMT party, which favors Taiwan integration with China, also congratulated Britain on the Brexit referendum. However, he said that no similar referendum could be held in Taiwan, because referendums could only be held on matters of crucial national interest, and because "the requirements of our Referendum Law need not be relaxed at this time, despite attempts by pro-independence legislators to do so." China Post (Taipei) and China Post **** **** Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote **** Protester in fake blood outside Westminster on Friday carries sign, 'Brexit what a bloody joke.' Other signs read, 'I am not British - I am European' (Daily Mail) Millennials in Britain are expressing fury that their futures have been ruined by the passage of the Brexit vote by the Boomer generation, meaning that Britain will no longer be part of the European Union, and the Millennials will be denied the benefits that their parents had. According to YouGov exit polls, Millennials voted overwhelmingly for the "Remain" side, meaning that the UK would remain in the EU, while Boomers voted for the "Leave" side. The breakdown by age group was:
Yorkshire Post columnist Grant Woodward wrote: [indent]<QUOTE>"Brexit will come to be seen as the Baby Boomers’ ultimate betrayal of younger generations and those that will follow. A knee-jerk response to a series of red herrings, a protest vote with the potential for long-term catastrophe that they won’t be around to endure."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Typical tweets were as follows: [indent]<QUOTE>"So all the old people gave us a future we didn't want. You've all had your careers, why screw it up for us" "I'm scared. Jokes aside I'm actually scared. Today an older generation has voted to ruin the future for the younger generation. I'm scared." "I'm actually really upset how selfish the older generations have been" "The fact that the older generation have whole heartedly made a decision that the youth of today DO NOT WANT seems strange, yes I'm bitter"<END QUOTE>[/indent] Among the American politicians, Donald Trump is on the "Leave" side, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are on the "Remain" side. Daily Mail (London) and Telegraph (London) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party, Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, KMT, Kuomintang, 1992 Consensus, One-China Policy, Wu Ping-jui, Brexit, European Union, Millennials, Boomers, YouGov, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Grant Woodward, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-Jun-16 World View -- Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement - John J. Xenakis - 06-26-2016 *** 27-Jun-16 World View -- Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Nationalistic tensions increase as UK and EU drift towards Brexit **** Nationalistic tensions grow in the UK and EU (AFP) The successful Brexit referendum vote, calling for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Island to leave the European Union, has unleashed powerful nationalistic forces in both the UK and the EU, as we've been describing for years in nations around the world in a generational Crisis era. Furthermore, it's torn wide open new political fault lines within both the UK and EU, making resolution of the issues less likely and chaos more likely, and making both unions considerably weaker. The latest developments are as follows:
David Cameron will be traveling to Brussels on Tuesday for a long-planned meeting of leaders of the 28 EU countries. But on Wednesday, he will be excluded from an all-day meeting of leaders of the other 27 EU countries, as they try to figure out what to do next. Guardian (London) and Democracy Now (London) and Breitbart News (London) **** **** Japan's government calls emergency meeting as yen surges after Brexit **** The unexpected success of the Brexit referendum caught many investors by surprise, and has shocked the markets. ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets" ) Investors quickly moved into "safe havens," including dollar-denominated investments and, even more, into yen-denominated investments. This created a new global demand for yen, pushing the value of the currency higher, exacerbating Japan's deflationary spiral. The Bank of Japan and other government officials are holding an emergency meeting on Monday to evaluate the situation and to decide whether to "print money" and pour more liquidity into the banking system in order to prevent the vicious cycle that we described two days ago. The European Central Bank would also like "print money" by buying bonds (quantitative easing), but according to one analyst, the ECB will have a problem doing this. The reason is that there are $8 trillion in bonds in the market at negative yields (interest rates), and the ECB is running out of bonds to buy. ( "15-Jun-16 World View -- German 10 year bund yield goes negative, as deflationary spiral continues" ) The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also announced a substantial weakening of the renminbi (yuan) currency, though they did it a different way. The yuan currency is pegged to a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, and on Monday morning the PBOC weakened the yuan currency by 0.9%, its weakest fixing level since December 2010. Meanwhile the favorite topic of all the tv financial talk shows has suddenly taken a dramatic twist. For months this year, these shows would debate for hours and hours each day whether the Fed would increase interest rates three times or two times or one time this year. Increasing interest rates would strengthen the US dollar, causing more deflation. So over the weekend sentiment has changed, and now analysts are expecting the Fed to lower interest rates, not raise them. During the 1930s Great Depression, there was a "race to the bottom," as countries kept devaluing their currencies in order to gain a competitive advantage against other countries. Ever since the "financial crisis" of 2007-8, it's been widely feared that it could happen again, and the current situation is raising those concerns again. Dow Jones and Japan Today and Business Insider (Australia) **** **** Israel and Turkey announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday **** Multiple media sources are saying that Israel and Turkey are announcing a reconciliation agreement on Monday, bringing to an end the deterioration in relations that followed the Mavi Marmara confrontation in 2010. (See "23-Jun-16 World View -- Turkey drops lifting of Gaza blockade demand for normalization with Israel" ) According to press reports, the details of the agreement are as follows:
These have been difficult compromises for both sides. According to a former minister to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu: [indent]<QUOTE>"Israel will pay Turkey reparations for the Marmara? I hope the reports are untrue. If they are true, this would be national humiliation and an invitation for further flotillas and libels by haters of Israel."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt ÇavuSoglu said the following: [indent]<QUOTE>"Saying that Turkey has given up one of its two remaining conditions, which is lifting the embargo and blockade on Gaza, would mean humiliating the people’s intelligence. If Turkey had given up these [conditions], then relations would have been normalized by now."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The deal will be announced on Monday, and the agreement will be signed in July, according to reports. Jerusalem Post and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al-Jazeera (Doha) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, European Union, Jeremy Corbyn, Labor Party, David Cameron, Tory, Conservative Party, Lisbon Treaty Article 50, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Boris Johnson, Bank of Japan, BOJ, yen, European Central Bank, ECB, People's Bank of China, PBOC, yuan, renminbi, Israel, Turkey, Mavi Marmara, Gaza, Mevlüt ÇavuSoglu Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-Jun-16 World View -- Hezbollah defends terrorist actions - John J. Xenakis - 06-27-2016 *** 28-Jun-16 World View -- Hezbollah defends terrorist actions by saying it gets all its money from Iran This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Rating agencies downgrade Britain's AAA credit rating **** Britain's Home Secretary Theresa May - could be Prime Minister within weeks (Getty) The fallout from the UK's shock approval of the Brexit referendum, mandating that the UK leave the European Union, continued on Monday with a new stream of events. The Russia, Standard & Poors (S&P) ratings agency cut the UK's credit rating by two notches, from AAA to AA+ and then to AA. The S&P said that Brexit could lead to "a deterioration of the UK's economic performance, including its large financial services sector." Fitch ratings agency followed suit, lowering its rating from AA+ to AA. On Friday, Moody's ratings agency cut the UK's credit rating outlook to negative. The main reason that this might be significant is that it could lead to forced selling. Many fund managers are only allowed to own AAA debt, and the ratings downgrades may force many of these fund managers to sell the downgraded assets. If the asset has lost value as a result of Brexit, then these funds could lose substantial amounts of money. This could lead to the vicious cycle that I described last week -- where asset values fall, leading to forced selling, causing asset values to value, leading to more forced selling, and so forth. On the other hand, central banks are acting quickly to "print money" and make it available to wealthy investors and institutions so that there will be as little forced selling as possible. Meanwhile, Britain's government has become almost non-existent, as both parties are in chaos. David Cameron, leader of the government Conservative party, is to be replaced as leader early in September. The two most likely choices are the flamboyant pro-Brexit leader Boris Johnson, and the demure anti-Brexit Home Secretary Theresa May. However wins the leadership election for the party will automatically become Prime Minister until the next general election. In other developments on Monday, there is a great deal of tension among EU leaders as to how quickly UK leaders have to "invoke Article 50" of the Lisbon Treaty, referring to the event that will launch two years of negotiations to work out the details for the divorce between the UK and EU. UK pro-Brexit leaders don't have a plan or a clue what they want to do next, so the "plan" is to stall as long as possible, and not invoke Article 50 until it becomes absolutely necessary. This is driving some UK leaders crazy since they're unable to make their own plans due to the uncertainty of what will happen to the UK, and some of them are demanding that the UK invoke Article 50 as quickly as possible. However, the Lisbon Treaty is clear that the EU cannot force the UK to do so, and UK leaders are lost in the wilderness, so will stall as long as they can, at least until a new Prime Minister is selected. Another question plaguing EU leaders is how harsh they should be in the negotiations. On the one hand, the UK is an important ally, and they don't want to be seen as screwing the UK. On the other hand, they don't want other countries to look on and say, "If it's that easy, then we'll leave the EU too." So many EU leaders are talking about being as harsh as possible in the negotiations, to discourage other members from doing the same. The EU will have a great deal of leverage because the UK will want to continue to belong to the "EU Single Market," or the European Economic Area (EEA). The EEA is considered to be one of Europe's greatest post-war achievements, and its creation was led by Britain. Britain will desperately want to continue to be part of the EEA, and this is possible, because Norway is in the EEA, but not a member of the EU. However, in return for that access to the single market, Norway pays a contribution to the EU budget and has to sign up to all the rules of the club - including its common regulations and standards. If Britain negotiates to stay in the EEA, then EU negotiators will certainly demand as large a contribution to the EU budget as possible. Furthermore -- and this will be the ultimate irony -- the common regulations and standards will be set by the hated EU regulators, but after leaving the EU, Britain will have no say in how the regulations are set. Guardian (London) and Independent (London) and BBC **** **** Christian community in Lebanon targeted by suicide bombers **** A wave of multiple suicide bombings struck the predominantly Greek Orthodox Christian village of Al-Qaa in northern Lebanon near the border with Syria. The first wave of four suicide bombings occurred outside a church in the village before sunrise on Monday morning. Then on Monday evening, as residents were preparing for funerals for the morning's suicide bombings, three suicide bombers riding motorcycles blew themselves up in the same village. At least five people were killed and 15 wounded. No one claimed credit, but it's believed that the bombings were perpetrated by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The region around Al-Qaa has had numerous al-Qaeda and ISIS attacks since the beginning of the Syrian war in 2011. Lebanon hosts more than 1.1-million Syrian refugees, in a country with a population of just four million. The refugees have put an enormous strain on the economy and on the army. Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah) and AFP and Business Day (Johannesburg) **** **** June 12 bombing of Beirut's Blom Bank blamed on Hezbollah **** A bomb has exploded in Beirut Lebanon on June 12, outside the headquarters of the Blom Bank, the second largest financial institution in Lebanon. The bomb destroyed the façade of the building, but did not cause any deaths. Lebanon's police arrested two suspects who had been pictured on surveillance video. They were part of a group linked to Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a powerful political force in Lebanon, but it's also a terrorist puppet funded and directed by Iran. Under Iran's direction, Hezbollah militias have been fighting alongside the army of the regime of president Bashar al-Assad of Syria. In December 2015, the US Congress passed the Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act, which provides for sanctions against any foreign or domestic bank that helps Hezbollah with loans, fundraising, money laundering, or other activities. In the weeks before the bombing, Hezbollah began a campaign of harshly criticizing Blom bank and its governor Riad Salameh, as well as other Lebanese banks. Hezbollah accused the banks of being too eager to implement the US sanctions, and appeared to be inciting violence, and did not condemn the bombing after it occurred. Several Lebanese newspapers known to be critical of Hezbollah called the organization "bank bombers," and said that Hezbollah intended the bombing as a "message" to banks complying with the US sanctions. Congress.gov and Reuters (6/12) and Memri and Gulf News (Dubai - 6/16) **** **** Nasrallah responds: Hezbollah gets all its funding from Iran **** In a speech on Friday, Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech in which he defended Hezbollah against the accusation of being responsible for the Blom bank bombing, saying that the law passed by Congress has no effect on Hezbollah: [indent]<QUOTE>"Well, at the time, I said that even if the Lebanese banks comply with this law, ... we as a party and as an organization and jihadist movement consider the law pointless and we will not be hurt or affected by it. Yes, it is true that the law puts some moral pressure on us but it will not have any financial impact on Hezbollah. I have previously explained why but I will remind those idiots of the following. We do not have any business projects or investments via banks. Let me be very frank and I do not think anyone in the world would dare to say this publicly. We are open about the fact that Hezbollah's budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, are from the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... Our allocated money is coming to us, not through the banks. As long as Iran has money, we have money ... Just as we receive the rockets that we use to threaten Israel, we are receiving our money. No law will prevent us from receiving it. Some people might have objections. We do not care. By the way, the resistance [to Israel], its sons, audience, and people thank the imam of the nation, His Eminence Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei, may God grant him a long life. We also thank the Islamic Republic of Iran, its president, government, parliament, reference, religious authorities, and people for the kind support provided to us during the years of resistance and that continues to date."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The interesting thing about this speech is that Nasrallah does not deny that Hezbollah was responsible for the bombing, which makes the whole speech rather silly. It appears to be a message to the US Congress to convince them to lift the sanctions because they don't do any good. However, that message is not likely to be heeded. The National (UAE) and Al Manar (Lebanon-Hezbollah) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Kingdom, Britain, European Union, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Brexit, Standard & Poors, Moody's, Fitch, forced selling, European Single Market, European Economic Area, EEA, Lebanon, Al-Qaa, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Blom Bank, Riad Salameh, Syria, Bashar al-Assad Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-Jun-16 World View -- Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomacy - John J. Xenakis - 06-28-2016 *** 29-Jun-16 World View -- Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Mutual UK-EU loathing at the European Parliament in Brussels **** Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon in Brussels on Tuesday While not threatening an immediate spiral into a global crisis, The Brexit situation continues every day to cause a great deal of geopolitical deterioration and damage of a kind that's likely to lead to a serious crisis in time. Britain's government melted down further on Tuesday, as far-left Labor Party chief Jeremy Corbyn was given a big vote of no-confidence, with 172 Labor MPs voting no confidence, while only 40 supported him. However, he was elected leader last year by a wide margin among Labor MPs, and he says he won't step down. This leaves both British parties without effective leadership. The real action on Tuesday occurred at the meeting of the European Parliament in Brussels. Nigel Farage, who is the head of Britain's anti-immigrant anti-Europe Ukip party, is also an MEP (member of European parliament). In Brussels on Tuesday, he stood to speak and he used the time to gloat: [indent]<QUOTE>"Funny, isn't it. You know, when I came here 17 years ago, and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the European Union, you all laughed at me. Well I have to say, you're not laughing now are you?"<END QUOTE>[/indent] He also accused all the other 700 MEPs of never having done a hard day's work in their lives, or of ever creating a job. Parliament president Jean-Claude Jüncker accused Farage of lying repeatedly during the Brexit campaign, and said "You were fighting for the exit, the British people voted in favor of the exit - why are you here?" EU officials are described as sad and angry, and they're especially angry at David Cameron for even allowing the referendum in the first place. Jüncker said clearly that Brexit was "a fact," and there would be no going back. He also ordered all the MEPs not to conduct any negotiations with British officials, until Britain's government invokes "Article 50," which launches the two-year negotiation process. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there would be no "cherry picking," meaning that Britain would not be permitted to pick and choose which EU regulations it obeys if it wants to be part of EU's Single Market. The UK government is still in chaos, and still lost in the wilderness, and has no idea what to do next. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland are demanding that a way be found to keep them in the EU. The Scottish MEP Alyn Smith reminded the Brussels Parliament that Scotland voted overwhelmingly against Brexit: "We will need cool heads and warm hearts but please remember this - Scotland did not let you down. I beg you: do not let Scotland down now." Jüncker and other EU officials seem resigned that Britain will not invoke Article 50 at least until September 9, when David Cameron will be replaced by a new Prime Minister. Jüncker's nightmare scenario is that the UK will keep stalling indefinitely, without invoking Article 50, leaving the EU in unending limbo. On Wednesday, there will be a meeting of the leaders of 27 EU members and, for the first time in 40 years, the UK will be excluded. There is a real feeling of mutual disgust and loathing between EU and UK officials now, and that the negotiations will be harsh and bitter. On the other hand, in view of the chaos and bitterness, fears of other EU countries trying to conduct their own exit referendums seem diminished now. Nobody else wants to go through the same thing. BBC and Guardian (London) and BBC **** **** Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions **** At least 36 people were killed on Monday by three coordinated suicide bombings in Ataturk National Airport on the European side of Istanbul, Turkey. No one has claimed responsibility, but Turkish officials say that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was responsible. The Ataturk airport is a major international airport. Not only is it the biggest commercial hub in Turkey, it's one of the largest airports in the world, and a major international traffic hub. The bombing comes just one day after Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan completed two diplomatic initiatives. First, the reconciliation with Israel was announced after Erdogan softened his demand that Israel end its blockade of Gaza, and agreed to a compromise, as we described on Sunday. Second, it was revealed that Erdogan finally apologized to Russia for shooting down the Russian warplane last year. Russia's president Vladimir Putin has demanded that Erdogan apologize and provide compensation to the families of the victims. Whether it was an accident or on purpose that both diplomatic announcements occurred on the same day, it certainly appears that Erdogan is changing some of his hardline attitudes. There's a third major diplomatic issue reaching a potential crisis this week. June 30 is the deadline set by Turkey for the European Union to lift visa restrictions on Turkey, so that any of Turkey's 72 million citizens can travel freely around Europe's Schengen zone. This is Turkey's requirement in exchange for the EU-Turkey migrant deal. This deal has been extremely successful, in that it's reduced the flow of migrants entering Greece from Turkey to dozens per day, down from hundreds or thousands per day. EU officials have said they won't lift the visa restrictions unless Turkey improves its human rights record, particularly by not using anti-terrorism laws to jail journalists. Turkish officials have said repeatedly that if the visa restrictions aren't lifted, then Turkey will renege on the migrant deal, and allow an unrestricted flow of migrants to cross the Aegean Sea again to Greece. Turkey has refused in the past to weaken the anti-terrorism laws, and Tuesday's airport attack can only redouble that resolve. There have been no recent statements from Turkey about reneging on the migrant deal, so right now it looks like Thursday is going to come and go with no change in the status quo. If so, it will be the third time this week that Erdogan will have backed down diplomatically. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Observer KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, European Union, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Nigel Farage, Ukip, David Cameron, Jean-Claude Jüncker, Angela Merkel, Alyn Smith, Turkey, Istanbul, Ataturk National Airport, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Gaza, Russia, Vladimir Putin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 29-Jun-16 World View -- Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomacy - John J. Xenakis - 06-29-2016 (06-28-2016, 11:40 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: > If the SCO don't see their guy Trump winning the US Presidency, it I almost wrote a story yesterday on the SCO. I don't know if you're aware of it, but as of last week India and Pakistan are joining the SCO as members. The SCO has never been much more than a talking club, but now that will be even more the case, except that in addition to talking there'll be a lot more shouting. http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79411 As for Trump being the SCO's "guy", you must be talking about a different SCO. RE: 26-Jun-16 World View -- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote - Ragnarök_62 - 06-29-2016 John X Wrote:**** It looks like GenX split down the middle. whiner Wrote: "I'm scared. Jokes aside I'm actually scared. Today an older Why did y'all stay home to play video games instead of vote then? John X Wrote:Among the American politicians, Donald Trump is on the "Leave" side, It appears the UK got out before the trap door shut. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662827/Has-Britain-avoided-European-superstate-France-Germany-draw-plans-morph-EU-countries-one-control-members-armies-economies.html As for anything to do with Ukraine, that's another CIA covert op that led to blowback. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/07/30/the-media-ignores-the-cia-in-ukraine/ 30-Jun-16 World View -- Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state' - John J. Xenakis - 06-29-2016 *** 30-Jun-16 World View -- Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Cash stored in vaults as negative interest rates spread **** Man shops for vault in which to store cash As I wrote last week, central banks around the world are committed to "printing money" and making it available to wealthy investors and institutions in order to forestall forced selling following global financial shocks following Brexit. A major tool for doing this is quantitative easing -- purchasing corporate or sovereign bonds. But central banks are being limited by the huge amount of debt based on negative interest rates (yields). ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets" ) A new report by Finch Ratings indicates that negative interest rates are spreading rapidly. As of June 27, $11.7 trillion of sovereign debt globally was based on the purchase of bonds and other assets with negative yields. This is up by $1.3 trillion from the end of May. The way that this works in "normal" times is that an investor pays $95 for a bond that will pay $100 when it expires. But in today's "new normal," the demand for bonds is surging, and by the law of supply and demand, the prices of these bonds are also surging. So the investor is forced to pay $105 for the same bond that will pay only $100. That's a negative yield. The demand for bonds has been surging from two sources. As volatility and uncertainty increases, investors are seeking safe havens in which to park their money. And central banks are purchasing bonds as part of a quantitative easing program. Japan, Germany and France were the leaders in June of increases in sovereign debt with negative yields. In "normal" times, banks make money by borrowing money at low interest rates and lending it out at high interest rates. But in today's low and negative interest rate environment, it's impossible to lend it out at high interest rates, except to the riskiest borrowers, the subprime borrowers most likely to default. For financial institutions looking for a place to park their money, some of them are returning to the old days when banks stored their money in vaults. Money in a vault earns no interest, but it also doesn't lose value. When American outlaw "Willie" Sutton was once asked why he robbed banks, he replied, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Somewhere there may be a modern day Willie Sutton who's thinking the same thing. Fitch Ratings and Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha and Bloomberg and FT Adviser and Telegraph (London) **** **** UK was locked out of EU summit for first time in 40 years **** Today's meeting was "about us," according to one EU official, not about the UK. So 27 European Union members met for an EU summit, the first one in 40 years from which Britain was excluded. The key phrase was "there will be no single market à la carte." The meaning of this phrase was stated repeatedly by different EU officials. If the UK wants access to the EU Single Market, then they must also be willing to guarantee the EU's four freedoms: freedom of movement for people, goods, capital and services. In particular, this will mean that the UK would have to permit the free movement of people, which was the major motivation for the successful Brexit vote in the first place. That would be ironic. And it's worth mentioning again that the opposition to free movement of people are just as opposed to free movement of Catholic Poles and Hungarians as they are opposed to free movement of Syrian Muslims. Guardian (London) **** **** Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state' **** The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), and the country's that sponsor MB -- Qatar and Turkey -- have reacted furiously to the actions on June 18 by an Egyptian court to sentence former president Mohamed Morsi to 40 years in prison for conspiring to harm Egypt's national interests in what has been called the "spying for Qatar" affair. Morsi's co-defendants included a reporter from Qatar-based al-Jazeera. The judge reading out the verdict said that Morsi and his co-defendants endangered national security, which is "worse than killing a person or opposing God’s laws." He added: [indent]<QUOTE>"They are more dangerous than spies. Spies are usually foreigners, but unfortunately the defendants are Egyptian."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Qatar denounced the verdicts, saying they set a dangerous precedent in relations between Arab nations: [indent]<QUOTE>"The verdict issued by the Cairo Criminal Court is baseless and goes against justice and the realities on the ground, because it includes a litany of misleading claims that contradicts the policy of the State of Qatar towards all its sisterly nations."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Egyptian media responded harshly. According to Muhammad Amin, editor of the Egyptian daily Al-Masri Al-Yawm: [indent]<QUOTE>"The sentence in the case of the spying [for Qatar] sends a message no only to the MB but also a special message [meant] to reach the Qatari Emir. The message to the MB is that the [Egyptian] state will not stop pursuing the movement and is not interested in holding talks [with it] or reassessing its attitude towards 'the state of the [MB] General Guide.' ... I believe this affair means Qatar has become an 'enemy state' and can no longer be a sister country, [since] siblings do not spy on each other. I am speaking of the rash [Qatari] leadership. This leadership managed to deceive a foolish president [Morsi] in order to receive [from him] documents [pertaining to] national security. He who sells out his homeland sells out his good name and his honor."<END QUOTE>[/indent] As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that, in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran, India and Russia will be allied with the West against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab nations. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal" ) However, that's very broad prediction. It's clear that the Sunni Arab nations are not monolithic, and historically they've fought against each other, as well as against Shia Iran. The 2014 Gaza war revealed sharp fault lines among the Sunni Arabs, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the West Bank Palestinians on one side, and Hamas, Qatar and (non-Arab) Turkey on the other side. ( "3-Sep-14 World View -- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war" ) It would be possible through analysis and interviews to produce a much more detailed and accurate prediction of the expected activities of the different ethnic groups, but this would require more resources than are available to me. However, this could be a good project for a college student thesis. Daily News Egypt (18-Jun) and Al-Jazeera (Qatar - 18-Jun) and Memri KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brexit, negative yields, Finch Ratings, Germany, France, Japan, Willie Sutton, Britain, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, MB, al-Jazeera, Muhammad Amin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Jul-16 World View -- Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist eco - John J. Xenakis - 06-30-2016 *** 1-Jul-16 World View -- Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** British government shocked as Boris Johnson stands down **** Boris Johnson, next to his wife Marina, waves goodbye on Thursday after standing down (Daily Mail) It's being described as a complete shock, totally unexpected -- that Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and the leader of the successful campaign to win the Brexit referendum, which mandates that the UK leave the European Union, announced that he would not run to replace David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party and become Prime Minister on September 9. Reports indicate that Boris Johnson was stabbed in the back by a close former ally, Michael Gove. Gove had said repeatedly when asked that he (Gove) was not qualified to be PM, but that he was going to support Johnson and even be his campaign manager. But early on Thursday, Gove flip-flopped and announced that he would run. He announced, "I have come reluctantly to the conclusions Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead." He added that he's decided that he can. Although Johnson's announcement was a shock, it cannot have been totally unexpected, since Johnson is completely unqualified. His pro-Brexit campaign emotionally targeted anti-EU nationalism and anti-immigrant anxieties about both east European Catholics and Syrian Muslims. Once his side won the referendum vote, he almost completely vanished from view, and it was clear that he didn't have the vaguest clue what he'd been talking about during the campaign, or what to do after winning. The Brexit outcome has done a great deal of damage to the UK and the EU, and is continuing to do more damage, as we've been reporting the last few days. Perhaps Boris Johnson should be thanked for standing down before he did any more damage. After all, sometimes it seems that the most successful politicians are also the most destructive politicians. Daily Mail (London) **** **** After decades of destroying the economy, Zimbabwe wants investors **** In a move of total desperation, Zimbabwe on Thursday announced that foreigners who invested their money in Zimbabwe will be permitted to repatriate their profits and dividends back to their home countries. Previously, investors were required to leave all money in Zimbabwe. As in Venezuela and Puerto Rico, the economy of Zimbabwe is crashing. There are shortages of fuel, sugar and cooking oil. Cash withdrawals from banks are strictly limited. ATM queues typically contain dozens of people, and frequently the cash machines run out of money. School teachers have been told that they will not be paid, and many don't even have money to buy food. The change in policy is driven by total desperation. In order to keep the economy from crashing completely, Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Patrick Chinamas is visiting business leaders in Paris to beg for further investments. Currently Zimbabwe owes 10 billion US dollars to the IMF, World Bank and the African Development Bank, with $1.86 billion in debt repayments in arrears. Chinamas is promising that the arrears will be repaid, but Zimbabwe has no money with which to pay the arrears. If the most successful politicians are the most destructive, then one of the most successful politicians of all time is 92 year old president Robert Mubage, who has been in power for almost 30 years, and has been responsible for an almost unbelievable amount of destruction, in one incredible Marxist policy after another. Mugabe is from the Shona tribe. Shortly after taking power in 1980, he consolidated power by launching "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were raped, tortured and slaughtered. As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was still the breadbasket of Africa, exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003, Zimbabwe was starving. What happened during those three years was a Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Robert Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the property to his own Shona ethnic group. After 2003, more and more Zimbabweans were dying of starvation, because Mugabe has destroyed the farm infrastructure. By 2008, the official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. ( "24-Feb-2014 World View -- Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday" ) In 2009, Mugabe abolished the Zimbabwe dollar, which wasn't worth the paper it was written on anyway. The US dollar and the South African rand became the official currencies. But instead of ending the destructive land reform policies, Mugabe added on a new one: Indigenization. Indigenization required all Zimbabwe businesses to be majority owned by Zimbabweans, again mostly from Mugabe's Shona tribe. Zimbabwe continues to shut down businesses, including foreign banks, that do not comply with the indigenization requirements. Just as Mugabe's "land reforms" destroyed the farm infrastructure, Mugabe's indigenization law is destroying the entire business infrastructure. So now, with Zimbabwe's Marxist economy close to total collapse, Mugabe's finance minister is in Paris to convince the capitalist investors to pour more money into Zimbabwe. It's laughable except for the fact that so many people are suffering because of Mugabe's destructive Marxist policies. RFI and Financial Times (27-Jun) and Independent (Zimbabwe) and Zimbabwe Government and The Zimbabwean **** **** Venezuela and Puerto Rico join Zimbabwe in economic destruction **** Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez are also among the world's most successful politicians, as measured by the amount of destruction they've brought about in their own country. Like Mugabe, they've destroyed Venezuela's economy with Marxist policies, even though its oil reserves should make it one of the wealthiest economies in the world. ( "15-May-16 World View -- Venezuela economy close to collapse as Maduro orders jailing of factory owners" ) Puerto Rico faces $70 billion in total debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a shrinking population, as a result of years of massive spending on social programs. ( "27-Apr-16 World View -- Puerto Rico headed for new financial default on May 1" ) Puerto Rico was saved from default on Friday, July 1, as President Obama signed a Puerto Rico rescue bill into law on Thursday. Let's not forget Cuba and North Korea, two more potentially wealthy countries that have been destroyed by their successful politicians. Washington Post **** **** After Trump's exit, Miss Teen USA dumps its swimsuit competition **** The sexist, outdated swimsuit competition will be eliminated by a thoroughly modern, feminist update Now that Donald Trump has severed his relationship with the Miss Universe Organization, it has announced that it's dropping the swimsuit competition from Miss Teen USA. According to a Miss Universe statement: "In a society that increasingly prioritizes feminism and equality, watching women parade across a stage in bikinis can feel outdated." However, some critics complained that the contest was becoming "Sharia compliant." The Daily Good (Iceland) and Irish Times KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Shona, Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi, Patrick Chinamas, Land reforms, Indigenization, Puerto Rico, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez, Donald Trump, Miss Universe, Miss Teen USA Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 06-30-2016 Oil revenue is the resource most likely to be wasted. 2-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack - John J. Xenakis - 07-01-2016 *** 2-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Politicians commemorate the botched World War I Battle of the Somme **** Tyne Cot War Cemetery, with graves of 11,954 soldiers in the British army (greatwar.co.uk) The Battle of the Somme, possibly the worst botched battle in the British army's history, began on July 1, 1916. The British wanted to deliver a knockout blow to the German army. For over a week, the British had fired some 1,738,000 artillery shells at the German line in order to prepare for the British infantry advance. However, the Germans were prepared for this. The German soldiers moved into deep dugouts that had been prepared. When the bombardment stopped, the Germans knew that was a signal that the infantry attack was about to begin, so they left the dugout and moved to their machine guns. Some 100,000 British and French army soldiers went "over the top" to confront the Germans and the machine guns along a 25-mile front. By the end of the first day, the British army had lost 60,000 men. By the end of 141 days of battle, in November 1916, the British had lost 420,000, the French lost 200,000 men and the Germans 500,000, for a total of almost 1.2 million casualties in this one battle. The British army had not only not delivered a knockout blow, they had moved their front line only seven miles. The British Generals had botched the situation so badly that by the 1920s, many veterans were describing the entire war as "Lions led by Donkeys." On Friday, France's president François Hollande and Britain's prime minister David Cameron met at the site of the battle to commemorate the deaths, to give the usual speeches saying "Never again." This commemoration comes just weeks after the commemoration of the Battle of Verdun. The commemoration comes one week after the Brexit vote, mandating that Britain should leave the European Union. The biggest motivation for the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 and for the European Union, was that the survivors of World War I and II wanted to guarantee that Europe would never fight wars like the two world wars ever again. The Brexit vote means that this guarantee will not be met. Today, the survivors of the two world wars are gone, and so it's particularly ironic that the commemoration comes at a time when the European Union is falling apart, and the same nationalistic and xenophobic forces that brought about the Battle of the Somme and other battles are rising again. History Learning and Telegraph (London) and Deutsche Welle **** **** The Battle of the Somme and infant mortality **** Estimated infant mortality rates - 1870-1999 - in Chicago There were 38 million military and civilian casualties in World War I, including 11 million military personnel. The number of deaths was astonishing, mainly because there had never been so many deaths in previous wars. Politicians discussing the Battle of the Somme this week blamed the large number of deaths as "a failure of political leadership," and pontificated that if the political leadership had been better, then World War I would have had fewer deaths. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's very likely that 38 million people had to die, no matter how well the politicians ran the war. In fact, asking why 38 million people died in World War I is the wrong question. The right question is: Where did all those people come from? Prior to 1870, some 30% of all infants died before their first birthday. (By age 5, the figure was about 50%.) But infant and child mortality fell dramatically in the 1890s, and again in the 1920s, as you can see from the graph. This fall in infant mortality meant that a lot more infants lived long enough to become soldiers. That's why there were so many more soldiers in WW I, and then again in WW II. And that's why there were so many more soldiers to be killed. In other words, curing infant mortality is a wonderful thing for the individual parents, but it has the unintended consequence of creating large population of young boys ready to be sent into war as cannon fodder. When there are too many people, nature provides several ways to kill them off -- war, disease, and famine. If those 38 million people hadn't been killed by World War I, then they would have had to be killed some other way. That's the way the world works. Actually, that wasn't the end of it. The global Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed up to 50 million more people. Then 60 million more people were killed in World War II. Hundreds of millions more were killed by Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong in various Communist purges. Today it's much worse. There are 200,000 people added to the global population every day. At the same time, growing populations are displacing more and more farmland. There is no way that this situation is sustainable, or will end well, and Brexit is just one thing that's leading the way. The Battle of the Somme was just a minor blip compared to what's coming. Oil Price **** **** Bangladesh again shocked by major ongoing terrorist attack **** As I'm writing this on Friday evening ET, the hostage crisis in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is still in progress. There are at least two dead and 20 hostages taken so far. A public relations media source associated with the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is claiming credit for ISIS. However, other analysts attribute the action to al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). ISIS and al-Qaeda are in a growing competition to take credit for as many terrorist acts as they can. The attack took place in an upmarket area popular with wealthy Bangladeshis and foreign tourists. As I've written several times in the past, this is a signal that the act is being perpetrated by a terror group associated with activist Biharis, the ethnic group that lost to the ethnic Bengalis in the 1971 generational crisis war that created the state of Bangladesh from the former East Pakistan. ( "12-Jun-16 World View -- Bangladesh government arrests 3,192 people to stop terrorist killings" ) Today, there are hundreds of thousands of Biharis living in refugee camps in filthy conditions, with the largest camp just north of Dhaka, Bangladesh's capital city. These are certainly a large part of the motivation for Bihari jihadist groups to continue terrorist attacks. So, if either al-Qaeda or ISIS plays any role at all, it would be purely for publicity purposes. It's not surprising that both of these jihadist groups should claim credit, but this is a bloody conflict between two ethnic groups, and it's only going to get worse. Dhaka Tribune KEYS: Generational Dynamics, World War I, Battle of the Somme, France, François Hollande, Britain, David Cameron, infant mortality, Spanish Flu, Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong, Dhaka, Bangladesh, Bengalis, Biharis, East Pakistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the wors - John J. Xenakis - 07-02-2016 *** 3-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years **** Photos of five of the attackers, appearing on an ISIS-linked web site "Blood, shock and horror" are the words being used by Bangladeshis to describe the grim news from the Friday overnight terror attack that we reported yesterday at the bakery in the in the highly secure Gulshan diplomatic enclave of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. We've previously reported on several of the 18 jihadist attacks in Bangladesh in the last year, as in "24-Apr-2016 World View -- Bangladesh in shock after university professor hacked to death" . These attacks targeted upper class secular bloggers and liberals. The attacks typically took place in full public view, as gang arrives on motorcycles to attack individuals, butcher them with machetes in the middle of crowded streets and then take off. However, for the first time, the attack targeted foreigners and was a lengthy siege lasting over twelve hours. Nine of the victims were Italian, seven were Japanese, one was from India, two were Bangladeshi and one was a U.S. citizen of Bangladeshi origin. The victims were among roughly three dozen people taken hostage. It's the first time that hostages have been taken in 40 years, and it's being called "Bangladesh's 26/11," in comparison to the three-day '26/11' terror attack in Mumbai India of November 2008. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit through its Amaq News Agency, and backed up the claim by posting photos of the carnage in the cafe hours before the police entered the cafe. I am among those analysts who do not believe that this was an ISIS operation. I do not believe that Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, from his ISIS headquarters in Syria, sent out a team of jihadists to a cafe in Dhaka Bangladesh to carry out this attack. Indeed, the Bangladesh police say that all of the perpetrators were Bangladeshi locals, not foreign fighters. It's possible that ISIS supported the operation and even provided some money, but at most it was a local home-grown operation piggybacking on ISIS's public relations facilities for their mutual benefit. Indeed, as I've written repeatedly, these terror attacks almost certainly were conducted by ethnic Bihari activists targeting ethnic Bengalis. The difference this time was that they copied ISIS's tactics, and used ISIS for support. In fact, Bangladesh suffered an even larger terrorist attack in February 2009, before ISIS even existed, that was even more horrific, except that it didn't target foreigners. 76 Bangladesh army border guard officers were mutilated and killed in a 33-hour massacre that shocked the country for its brutality. The perpetrators were the troops reporting to them. Bodies of officers and their wives were mutilated and piled into mass graves. ( "(4-March-2009) FBI will aid Bangladesh investigation of border guard officer massacre" ) In the end, a total of 847 defendants were tried, en masse, and 152 sentenced to hang, with hundreds more facing long jail terms. ISIS didn't exist in 2009, but if it had, they might have claimed credit for the border guard officer massacre. On Saturday, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina wondered how the terrorists could do this to their own country. She said the usual things about these attacks being "intolerable" and that she was determined to "eradicate" the terrorists: [indent]<QUOTE>"There is no place for terrorists or terrorism on Bangladesh's soil. People must resist these terrorists. My government is determined to root out terrorism and militancy from Bangladesh. It was an extremely heinous act. What kind of Muslims are these who kill other people during Ramadan?"<END QUOTE>[/indent] One thing that Hasina always did in the past but didn't do this time was to specifically blame the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ally Jamaat-e-Islam for perpetrating the violence. The BNP is a Bihari political party, so she was using BNP as a code word for Bihari. However, BNP leaders insisted that their political party does not support Bihari violence, and so this time, because of the severity of the attack, Hasina was trying not to be divisive. Daily Star (Dhaka) and Dhaka Tribune and CNN **** **** Suspicions that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency supported the Dhaka attack **** Some analysts, especially in India, believe that the Dhaka attack was perpetrated by a Taliban-linked group in Pakistan, supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. Besides mere suspicions, there are two major reasons that give plausibility to these accusations. First, the Dhaka attacks were similar in nature to the November 2008 three-day '26/11' terror attack in Mumbai. That attack was perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistani terrorist group with known connections to ISI, though ISI claims that the connections were severed long ago. The Mumbai attack almost resulted in war, as India threatened to invade Pakistani soil to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba. War was only avoided by hard intervention from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Second, Bangladesh was originally part of Pakistan, and was known as East Pakistan. One of the worst wars of the 20th century was the bloody genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan, with the latter split into West and East Pakistan. The scale of civilian displacement from their homes was so massive that it was called by some an "exodus of biblical proportions," since it forced millions of Hindus in Pakistan to flee to India, and millions of Muslims in India to flee to Pakistan. However, that was a generational crisis war only for West Pakistan and western India. Eastern India and East Pakistan are on a different generational timeline, and their crisis war was the bloody civil war of 1971, mainly between the Biharis and the Bengalis of East Pakistan. The outcome of that war was that East Pakistan became an independent country, Bangladesh. In the Bangladesh of today, the Bengali-speaking Bengalis are the dominant ethnic group, and the Urdu-speaking Biharis, who originally were from India, are the subservient ethnic group. But that's a flip-flop from how things were in 1949, after the Partition war. At that time, Pakistan declared that Urdu was the official language of both West and East Pakistan, and that the Bengali language was to be marginalized. The Urdu-speaking Biharis became the dominant group, and the Bengali-speaking Bengalis were subservient. In the 1971 war, the Pakistan army was on the side of the Biharis, fighting against the Bengalis, who were supported by India. The war was incredibly brutal, especially the behavior of the Pakistan army toward the Bengalis. Stories of rape, beheadings and mutilation of Bengali civilians were common. The Bengalis won, making Bangladesh an independent nation, and after that the Bengalis were the dominant ethnic group. Pakistan today still favors the subservient Biharis over the dominant Bengalis, and so it's quite plausible, though unproven, that the Bihari terrorists received support for Friday's attack from Pakistan's ISI. (In researching this article, I noticed something strange. The Taliban Easter attack on Lahore in Pakistan on March 29 took place in Lahore's Gulshan Iqbal Park. Saturday's terrorist attack took place in the Gulshan diplomatic enclave of Dhaka. None of the news reports notes this connection, so perhaps it's just a coincidence, but I thought it to be worth mentioning.) Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (PDF-2001) and My Golden Bengal (21-July-2013) and Swarajya (India) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Gulshan diplomatic enclave, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Amaq News Agency, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Hindus, Muslims, Bihari, Urdu, Bengali, Sheikh Hasina, Ramadan, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP, Jamaat-e-Islam, Pakistan, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI, Mumbai, India, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Condoleezza Rice, East Pakistan, Taliban, Lahore, Gulshan Iqbal Park Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Jul-16 World View -- Massive bombing attack Baghdad Iraq blamed on bogus bomb detec - John J. Xenakis - 07-03-2016 *** 4-Jul-16 World View -- Massive bombing attack Baghdad Iraq blamed on bogus bomb detectors This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iraq declares 3 days of national mourning after massive Baghdad bombing **** Aftermath of Sunday's bombing in Baghdad's Karrada district (EPA) At least 125 people were killed and 200 wounded in two bombing attacks on Baghdad on Sunday. The first attack occurred when a large refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up in a busy marketplace in the mostly Shia Karrada district of Baghdad, killing 120 people, and partially collapsing four buildings. The second attack occurred when a roadside bomb blew up hours later in a market in al-Shaab, another Shia district, killing at least two people. The so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed credit for the attacks. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Karrada to view the damage, and was greeted by angry rock-throwing crowds who blamed government corruptions and incompetence for the fact that it seems helplessly unable to prevent ISIS from striking anywhere, anytime, as desired. Later, al-Abadi announced three days of national mourning. The bombings came about a week after Iraqi government forces recaptured the city of Fallujah, an ISIS stronghold near Baghdad. The Iraqi government had hoped that liberating Fallujah would increase security in the capital as authorities believed Fallujah was a launch pad for such attacks. In fact, ISIS has lost about half the territory it controlled as of about a year ago, but still can use suicide bombers to strike Baghdad at will. NRT (Iraq) and BBC and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds) **** **** Iraq orders police to stop using bogus 'bomb detectors' **** Six years ago, the Iraqi government learned that a manufacturer had been supplying the country with bogus "bomb detectors." They came to be used and trusted by soldiers, police, border guards, and hotel security staff, and were (and are) used at security checkpoints, where they're supposed to protect the public from suicide bombers by detecting bombs before they can be exploded. Some reports indicate that Sunday's bombing at Karrada was made possible because the bomber wasn't stopped at a security checkpoint because the bogus detectors didn't set off an alarm. So Sunday's truck bombing can be blamed on the bomb detectors that have been known for years to be phony. So it was not until now, Sunday, that prime minister al-Abadi finally ordered police to stop using the so-called bomb detectors, which are little more than empty boxes containing electronics that do nothing. The bomb detectors were a scam. A British businessman named James McCormick would buy novelty "golf ball detectors" for $20 each, changed the label, and sold them to the Iraq government as bomb detectors for $5,000 each. McCormick is thought to have made $75 million from the scam. He is currently serving a ten-year sentence in jail, after being convicted in 2013. So why the hell are the Iraqi police still using them years after they were known to be pieces of junk? This is one of these stories that drive me completely crazy, but are so typical of what goes on today Why did it take a massive truck bombing for al-Abadi to order the change? I've seen this kind of credulity and duplicity repeatedly in the computer industry in the last 25 years. It's perfectly obvious that a software development project is going to fail, and I say so to my manager and I get fired. You can say that I must have some obsessive compulsion to keep doing this, and maybe I do, but I'm always right, and every one of these projects crashed after I left. I wrote about some of this in my article "Healthcare.gov -- The greatest software development disaster in history". What's happening is that a software development manager with a project that's going to crash doesn't care that it's going to crash. He just wants to keep the project going, get as much money for himself as possible, and then simply move on to the next project, after describing his experience on the project in glowing terms on his resume. I also see the same kind of thing in financial media, including CNBC and Bloomberg. Ten years ago, during the housing bubble, I was telling people not to buy real estate, and all I got was grief. One friend who bought a house anyway actually blamed me when she lost everything, as if I'd caused the bubble to crash. The "experts" didn't even admit that there had been a housing bubble until after it started crashing. I've written repeatedly that the stock valuations are astronomically high, most recently last week ( "25-Jun-16 World View -- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets" ). But every day on CNBC and Bloomberg, you hear experts say that stocks are "underpriced." I used to post the names of these people and call them liars and crooks, but nobody cares, so I don't bother anymore. That's the thing that never ceases to amaze me. People openly and blatantly provably lie about stock valuations on CNBC and Bloomberg, and nobody cares. It's incredible. And why shouldn't they lie? No one is going to call them on it, except a nobody like me. And when the bubble bursts, they'll just come back on and say, "Wow! That sure was a 'black swan.' Who could have seen that coming?" Incredibly, these experts have absolutely nothing to lose by lying, and everything to gain, and it's just grief for anyone who calls them on it. So let's relate this back to the situation in Iraq. The Baghdad police have been using bogus "bomb detectors" for years, and everyone in the government knows that they're bogus. Corruption runs deep in Baghdad, so probably a lot of people in government and in the police have made a lot of money reselling these bogus bomb detectors. So what if people's lives are at stake? "If there's ever a bombing, I'll just say I didn't know." Better to let hundreds of people be killed than to tell the truth. That's the world we live in. Everyone in Washington, on Wall Street, in London, and elsewhere have absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain by lying and defrauding people. If there's a problem, they find a scapegoat like James McCormick. Bankers created tens of trillions of dollars of phony subprime mortgage backed securities, with the result that millions of people lost their homes or went bankrupt. But barely a single person has gone to jail, even though the people who committed fraud are well known to the Justice Department. Why should the Obama administration prosecute anyone? These criminals have donated millions of dollars to Obama's election campaigns and projects as payoff, so it's better to be a criminal than to prosecute criminals. Meanwhile, the same bankers are still in their jobs in banks, still defrauding people, causing more people to go bankrupt and lose everything. And that's how the government officials in Baghdad undoubtedly feel. Al-Abadi has ordered that the police stop using the bogus devices, but the same Iraqi officials are all in the same jobs, finding new forms of corruption, and not caring in the least how many more people end up with their guts sprayed around a public market somewhere in Baghdad. Guardian (London-16-June) and Middle East Eye **** **** Former ambassador Jim Moriarty describes the dancing people of Bangladesh **** In the aftermath of the Friday overnight terror attack in Bangladesh's capital city Dhaka, the BBC interviewed James F. Moriarty, America's ambassador to Bangladesh, 2008-11. Here's what he said (my transcription): [indent]<QUOTE>"You're talking about the eighth most populous country in the world, you're talking about a country with probably 150 million Muslims, most of them pretty moderate in terms of their religion, and I think that's why you're seeing such a big emphasis from the external terrorist groups right now. They're really want to see countries like Bangladesh or for example Indonesia come under a lot of stress, and see whether they can turn fairly moderate countries into bastions of support for extreme Islam. ... I think in both cases it's going to be fairly tough [for the terrorists]. Bangladeshis have a fairly strong sense of national identity. Part of that is Islam, but as I said it's a fairly moderate form of Islam, and a large part of that is a Bengali nationalism, not necessarily tied directly into the sense of being an Islamic nation. It's got traditions, it's got singing, dancing, it's got things that go back in history before the region became Muslim."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This is about as silly as you can get. Moriarty paints a picture of Bangladesh as a land of singing, dancing moderate Muslim Bengalis being invaded by terror groups like ISIS. As I've written several times, most recently yesterday, there are two ethnic groups in Bangladesh, the dominant Bengalis and the subservient Biharis, and outcome of the bloody civil war of 1971. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of Biharis living in refugee camps in filthy conditions, with the largest camp just north of Dhaka. So Friday's attack was from a local group of activist Biharis, inspired by ISIS. When these people see singing, dancing Bengalis, the visceral reaction would be to kill them, not join in the dancing. At first I thought Moriarty was just another hack who had been given an ambassadorship in return for a campaign donation, but I looked up his background and it's quite impressive. It's almost certain that he knows that his statement is completely ridiculous. If that's true, then why did he do it? My guess is that it's the same thing as the stock valuations or the bogus bomb detectors or crashing software projects. You can't tell the truth because all you get is grief. But if you lie, then you get plush jobs and invitations to speak on the BBC. In fact, just last month, he was appointed as the Bangladesh Country Director by the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety, a platform of 28 North American retailers and brands. He will lead strategic oversight and outreach activities, with key stakeholders in Bangladesh’s Government, garment industry, and non-governmental and non-profit organizations. That's his reward for lying. Apparel Resources (23-May) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Karrada district, Haider al-Abadi, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Fallujah, James McCormick, Bangladesh, James F. Moriarty, Bengalis, Biharis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |