(08-18-2017, 12:10 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-16-2017, 09:35 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-14-2017, 09:28 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-14-2017, 04:58 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Removing Kim's nuclear capabilities without removing his regime is an impossible task.

Can you clarify - in what way do you think it's impossible?  Are you talking about the technical issues of identifying and destroying the sites and launchers, or are you talking about the political issues of who does what afterwards?

What I mean is that we aren't dealing with a unintelligent population chained to a medieval superstition like say Iraq or Libya.

Can the US destroy the sites?  Probably.  But I fully imagine that he has his nuclear scientists well protected and that as soon as he thinks its remotely safe they will be back to producing fissile material to make warheads.

The problem isn't so much physical as it is intellectual, unless you have a bomb that can make a population with a mean IQ around 105 to have a mean IQ around 85.

Sure.  But it takes time to rebuilt nuclear reactors to produce plutonium, and enrichment plants for bomb grade uranium.  Those can be destroyed faster than they can be rebuilt.  Nuclear weapons take good scientists, but they require a production infrastructure.

(08-17-2017, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > And Graham's is not contradictory either. It says that, one way
> or another, war with North Korea is "inevitable," and that an
> effort will be made to confine the war to the Korean peninsula.
> That's a worthwhile objective, but it's totally delusional to
> believe that it could succeed in a generational Crisis era.
>

(08-18-2017, 12:08 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Spanish Civil War was limited to the Iberian peninsula during
> a crisis era. There could be limited wars prior to the big one.
>

history-world Wrote:> The Spanish Civil War(1936-39), was a military revolt
> against the Republican government of Spain, supported by
> conservative elements within the country. When an initial military
> coup failed to win control of the entire country, a bloody civil
> war ensued, fought with great ferocity on both sides. The
> Nationalists, as the rebels were called, received aid from Fascist
> Italy and Nazi Germany. The Republicans received aid from the
> Soviet Union, as well as from International Brigades, a great
> number of volunteers who came from other European countries and
> the United States. ...

> The political and emotional reverberations of the war far
> transcended those of a national conflict, for many in other
> countries saw the Spanish Civil War as part of an international
> conflict between--depending on their point of view--tyranny and
> democracy, or Fascism and freedom, or Communism and
> civilization. For Germany and Italy, Spain was a testing ground
> for new methods of tank and air warfare. For Britain and France,
> the conflict represented a new threat to the international
> equilibrium that they were struggling to preserve, which in 1939
> collapsed into World War II.

> http://history-world.org/spanish_civil_war.htm

(08-18-2017, 02:41 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 02:01 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: ? Another war?   No, wars are like playing cards. We have too many cards in our hand, so if we add another card,
NK, we need to discard another war, say like Afghanistan. Also, don ya think we need a war tax? I think if the US fights a war, it needs to be paid for. Since we have so many wars, lets put 'em on budget and raise taxes enough to pay for them all. 

Sure, pull out of Afghanistan.

Quote:Political issues = I think China among others would be involved in some of that political and real fallout, so to speak.

China will object but will be secretly pleased that we took care of the problem.

Quote:And...  campus unrest you bet.  Remember that man?  Alt Right = Wallace folks , assorted lefties, well, NOW then, SJW's into feminism now.

No draft, no boots on the ground.

Quote:I wonder if we're gonna then move on to Iran and get some more re-duxes. like a hostage crisis or oil shut off.

I'm sure after North Korea has been made an example of, Iran will be more than happy to renegotiate their deal to our liking.

(08-18-2017, 07:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(08-17-2017, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   And Graham's is not contradictory either.  It says that, one way
>   or another, war with North Korea is "inevitable," and that an
>   effort will be made to confine the war to the Korean peninsula.
>   That's a worthwhile objective, but it's totally delusional to
>   believe that it could succeed in a generational Crisis era.
>  

(08-18-2017, 12:08 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The Spanish Civil War was limited to the Iberian peninsula during
>   a crisis era.  There could be limited wars prior to the big one.
>  

The Spanish Civil War (1936-39) led directly to World War II
(1939-45).  One could just as easily argue that WW II began in 1936
with the Spanish Civil War, or even in September 1931, when Japan
invaded Manchuria, or even in 1930, when the US passed the
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill.

(08-18-2017, 06:37 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 12:10 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-16-2017, 09:35 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-14-2017, 09:28 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-14-2017, 04:58 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Removing Kim's nuclear capabilities without removing his regime is an impossible task.

Can you clarify - in what way do you think it's impossible?  Are you talking about the technical issues of identifying and destroying the sites and launchers, or are you talking about the political issues of who does what afterwards?

What I mean is that we aren't dealing with a unintelligent population chained to a medieval superstition like say Iraq or Libya.

Can the US destroy the sites?  Probably.  But I fully imagine that he has his nuclear scientists well protected and that as soon as he thinks its remotely safe they will be back to producing fissile material to make warheads.

The problem isn't so much physical as it is intellectual, unless you have a bomb that can make a population with a mean IQ around 105 to have a mean IQ around 85.

Sure.  But it takes time to rebuilt nuclear reactors to produce plutonium, and enrichment plants for bomb grade uranium.  Those can be destroyed faster than they can be rebuilt.  Nuclear weapons take good scientists, but they require a production infrastructure.

At current, the whispers around the Pentagon (and I'm only reporting scuttlebutt here because I still know people connected with the services) are that NK likely has already stockpiled that material.  And furthermore that if they have the capability of building said reactors the first time, they could do so again.  As I said when dealing with North Korea we have to keep in mind that we are dealing with the North East Asian racial group and not the Arabic racial group.  There is at least one standard deviation in difference in their IQs.

Furthermore, if we examine Korean culture itself (and this applies to South Korea too but with some modification) we see that they view the nation as more vital than the individual in nearly all aspects of life.  Kim has already demonstrated that he is more interested in maintaining his nuclear deterrent than feeding his population if it comes down to that.  Indeed from the same scuttlebutt he's been attempting to have the army convert some parts of their bases to the production of goats and vegetables to address some of the food shortage problems.

Overall the problem remains that if one wants to neutralize the North Korean nuclear threat (and it is expected they have about 10 or so warheads, or at least they did under Kim 2) then one must also completely occupy and then destroy the Kim Regime.

• Erdogan tells Turks living in Germany not to vote for Angela Merkel
  
• Germany accuses Erdogan of extortion by 'hostage diplomacy'
  

• Relations between Germany and Turkey spiral into crisis (21-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
  
  
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(08-18-2017, 09:30 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 06:37 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 12:10 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-16-2017, 09:35 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-14-2017, 09:28 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Can you clarify - in what way do you think it's impossible?  Are you talking about the technical issues of identifying and destroying the sites and launchers, or are you talking about the political issues of who does what afterwards?

What I mean is that we aren't dealing with a unintelligent population chained to a medieval superstition like say Iraq or Libya.

Can the US destroy the sites?  Probably.  But I fully imagine that he has his nuclear scientists well protected and that as soon as he thinks its remotely safe they will be back to producing fissile material to make warheads.

The problem isn't so much physical as it is intellectual, unless you have a bomb that can make a population with a mean IQ around 105 to have a mean IQ around 85.

Sure.  But it takes time to rebuilt nuclear reactors to produce plutonium, and enrichment plants for bomb grade uranium.  Those can be destroyed faster than they can be rebuilt.  Nuclear weapons take good scientists, but they require a production infrastructure.

At current, the whispers around the Pentagon (and I'm only reporting scuttlebutt here because I still know people connected with the services) are that NK likely has already stockpiled that material.  And furthermore that if they have the capability of building said reactors the first time, they could do so again.  As I said when dealing with North Korea we have to keep in mind that we are dealing with the North East Asian racial group and not the Arabic racial group.  There is at least one standard deviation in difference in their IQs.

Furthermore, if we examine Korean culture itself (and this applies to South Korea too but with some modification) we see that they view the nation as more vital than the individual in nearly all aspects of life.  Kim has already demonstrated that he is more interested in maintaining his nuclear deterrent than feeding his population if it comes down to that.  Indeed from the same scuttlebutt he's been attempting to have the army convert some parts of their bases to the production of goats and vegetables to address some of the food shortage problems.

Overall the problem remains that if one wants to neutralize the North Korean nuclear threat (and it is expected they have about 10 or so warheads, or at least they did under Kim 2) then one must also completely occupy and then destroy the Kim Regime.

As of a few months ago, I believe we thought they had enough plutonium for about 20 nuclear warheads.  Many of those would probably survive, whether they are stockpiled or installed on missiles.  Without a working reactor, though, they couldn't produce more.  And we could bomb it back faster than they could fix it - though I'd expect we'd take the regime out too the second or third time.

It currently seems like we're headed toward letting them have the weapons, though.  I guess we're just going to wait until they or someone they sell nuclear weapons to decides to use one.

• Done with Mosul, Iraqi forces begin operation to eject ISIS from Tal Afar
  
• Turkey warns of sectarian war following battle of Tal Afar
  
• President Trump to announce US strategy in Afghanistan
  

(08-20-2017, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I'm not just trusting the CIA; I'm also checking against my nuclear engineering knowledge.  For example, I figured out Korea's first tests were plutonium bombs long before the CIA did - or at least before the announced it.

But as you say, it doesn't matter that much how many warheads they have.  The difference between you and me, I think, is that I'm willing to give up Guam to prevent North Korea from having nuclear weapons.

I read you to believe that we can permit nuclear proliferation with a good chance of nuclear weapons never being used.  Is that correct?

I do disagree, for engineering reasons, regarding how difficult plutonium production is.

• Philippines maid Lorain Asuncion employed in Hong Kong killed in mainland city
  
• Demand for Filipina maids creates thriving black market in China
  
• Hong Kong cracks down hard on illegal foreign workers
  

• Hiring foreign maids signifies a higher social status for some
  Chinese people.
  
  
• The quality of Filipina maids is high, because they are
  required to graduate with a college degree if they want to work
  overseas.
  
  
• They are also required to receive training for household work.
  
  
• They usually speak English. It is "killing two birds with one
  stone" for a Chinese family with a Filipina domestic helper that can
  also teach their children English.

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• An Afghanistan policy guided by generational theory
  
• Pushing on to victory - as in WW II, Iraq 1991, Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2007
  
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• America redefines its relationship with Pakistan and India
  

• Trump's review of the Afghanistan war seeks solution where none exists (08-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Massive Kabul bombing on Monday leaves US Afghan policy in tatters (25-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)

• WW II was finally won by a series of explosive actions,
  including firebombing Dresden and Tokyo and nuking Hiroshima. These
  kinds of actions are literally impossible at any time except at the
  climax of a generational crisis war, like WW II. We are nowhere near
  the climax of a generational crisis war in Afghanistan today, and so
  these kinds of actions are literally impossible.
  
  
• The purpose of the 1991 Iraq war was to expel Saddam Hussein from
  Kuwait. Iraq was in a generational Recovery Era, just three years
  after the climax of the horrific Iran/Iraq war, so the Iraqis had
  little will to fight. So expelling Iraq from Kuwait could be done
  quickly.
  
  
• The 2001 Afghanistan war was also in a generational Recovery era,
  just five years after the climax of the horrific Afghan civil war.
  Like the Iraqis in 1991, the Pashtuns in 2001 had little will to
  fight, and so they could be defeated.
  
  
• The 2007 victory in Iraq that followed President Bush's troop
  "surge" was a victory, but it was only supported by the American
  troops. It was won by the Iraqi Sunnis who ejected al-Qaeda in Iraq,
  a foreign jihadist group whose objective was to foment a civil war
  between Sunnis and Shias in Iraq. The objective failed, as I
  described in my 2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq".

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• Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
  
  
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• Stop providing American aid.
  
• Bring India into Afghanistan.

• There will be no 'victory' in Afghanistan.
  
• The Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and the terrorist attacks
  will grow as more and more young Pashtuns growing up after the 1990's
  civil war come of age.
  
• Pakistan will continue to provide safe havens to Afghan
  Taliban.
  
• The US will continue to use its military bases in Afghanistan.
  
• At some point soon, the US and India will be at war with Pakistan
  and China.

(08-18-2017, 07:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So the Spanish Civil War was only briefly confined to the Iberian
Peninsula, since it was a proxy war between Britain and France versus
Germany and Italy, leading directly to WW II.

Similarly, a war on the Korean Peninsula might be confined for a few
weeks or months, but the US would be involved immediately, and China
would certainly get involved, so it would be a proxy war between the
US and China that would directly lead to WW III.

(08-23-2017, 11:09 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 07:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So the Spanish Civil War was only briefly confined to the Iberian
Peninsula, since it was a proxy war between Britain and France versus
Germany and Italy, leading directly to WW II.

Similarly, a war on the Korean Peninsula might be confined for a few
weeks or months, but the US would be involved immediately, and China
would certainly get involved, so it would be a proxy war between the
US and China that would directly lead to WW III.

The Spanish Civil war was not a proxy war between Britain and france versus Nazi Germany. It was a Proxy war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Britain and France both declared neutrality and specifically banned imports of arms from their countries to either side in the war.

North Korea can be made an example of by a preemptive nuclear strike, the particulars of mopping up North Korea can be negotiated with China in regards to the occupation of the Yalu line or possibly a Chinese occupation of North Korea. Making an Example of North Korea also helps the situation with Iran and bolsters deterrence with both Russia and China.

(08-23-2017, 09:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-23-2017, 11:09 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 07:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So the Spanish Civil War was only briefly confined to the Iberian
Peninsula, since it was a proxy war between Britain and France versus
Germany and Italy, leading directly to WW II.

Similarly, a war on the Korean Peninsula might be confined for a few
weeks or months, but the US would be involved immediately, and China
would certainly get involved, so it would be a proxy war between the
US and China that would directly lead to WW III.

The Spanish Civil war was not a proxy war between Britain and france versus Nazi Germany. It was a Proxy war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Britain and France both declared neutrality and specifically banned imports of arms from their countries to either side in the war.

North Korea can be made an example of by a preemptive nuclear strike, the particulars of mopping up North Korea can be negotiated with China in regards to the occupation of the Yalu line or possibly a Chinese occupation of North Korea. Making an Example of North Korea also helps the situation with Iran and bolsters deterrence with both Russia and China.

Exactly.  The Chinese could install an actual puppet state in North Korea that would sign on to a nuclear free peninsula, instead of the independent actor that North Korea is now.

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(08-23-2017, 09:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(08-23-2017, 09:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-23-2017, 11:09 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(08-18-2017, 07:52 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So the Spanish Civil War was only briefly confined to the Iberian
Peninsula, since it was a proxy war between Britain and France versus
Germany and Italy, leading directly to WW II.

Similarly, a war on the Korean Peninsula might be confined for a few
weeks or months, but the US would be involved immediately, and China
would certainly get involved, so it would be a proxy war between the
US and China that would directly lead to WW III.

The Spanish Civil war was not a proxy war between Britain and france versus Nazi Germany. It was a Proxy war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Britain and France both declared neutrality and specifically banned imports of arms from their countries to either side in the war.

North Korea can be made an example of by a preemptive nuclear strike, the particulars of mopping up North Korea can be negotiated with China in regards to the occupation of the Yalu line or possibly a Chinese occupation of North Korea. Making an Example of North Korea also helps the situation with Iran and bolsters deterrence with both Russia and China.

Exactly.  The Chinese could install an actual puppet state in North Korea that would sign on to a nuclear free peninsula, instead of the independent actor that North Korea is now.

? In the meantime Seoul becomes a rubble heap from convential artillery , unless y'all want to nuke the DMZ which wouldn't work either. Last time I checked fallout's a bitch.


Ah yes, take "collateral damage" to a whole new level.