Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-19-2017 (09-18-2017, 01:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Your assumption is likely wrong; China through the ages has been This is a highly idealistic and sanguine view of China's policy. In recent times, China has annexed Tibet and Xinjiang, and has flooded these regions with Han Chinese in order to do what you suggest, "assimilate the population without any extermination." But that clearly is not working. Tibetans and Uighurs are not being assimilated. So in my view, China is headed inevitably toward extermination or, at best, assimilation by force, which is a variation of extermination. (09-18-2017, 01:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Nor is it at all "typical of Chinese thinking" today: Chinese So what? China is annexing traditional fishing grounds of other countries, and regions containing oil and gas reserves of other countries, and China has made it clear that it will kill anyone who opposes them. It's extermination by a different methodology. In 2006, I quoted Sha Zukang, China's UN ambassador, saying the following, which I transcribed from a BBC interview: China's UN ambassador Sha Zukang, 2006 Wrote:> "The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by So in fact annexation and extermination is typical of Chinese people. These are people with a completely different view of the world than Americans. When Sha says, "one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people," he's also saying "we're willing to exterminate people, even our own people, to get more territory." From China's world view, there are too many people and and there's too little land, so there's absolutely nothing wrong with killing off a few million people. For China, it's perfectly OK as a way to redress the balance, just as good as "development of production," and equal in morality. China's leaders might say that if people are going to die anyway from starvation and famine, then why not kill them off right away? Even better, let's kill off the people that we (China's leaders) don't like, so that the people that we do like will have more food. (Incidentally, this is similar to policy recommendations put forth by Malthus.) This is a cultural view deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche, as illustrated by the fact that, for millennia, the Chinese have considered Sun Tzu's The Art of War to be one of greatest literary achievements of all times. As I've said before, people my age have wondered our whole lives how it was possible for Hitler to so completely fool the British people. Reading your posts answers that question completely. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-19-2017 Boomers like JohnX again criticizes Russian, Chinese, Indian, Syrian and Burmese actions regarding minority populations and disputes with their neighbors. Yet the boomers demanding US intervention are the same boomers who never get the hint that at no point has Russia, Syria, China, India, or Burma/Myanmar asked us to intervene. That the US is involved is purely to the boomer leaders extreme selfishness, in these particular cases do to the boomers growing what appears to be "sticking their nose in other peoples business" lobe, a peculiar ossification of the brain that is largely unique to baby boomers. At no point has Russia asked that the US participate in Ukraine, At no point has Syria's government asked the US to intervene, At no point has China asked the US to patrol the south china sea, at no point has Burma asked the US to send peacekeepers, at no point has India requested US aid to the strife on the frontier of Burma or even asked for US troops to observed the Chinese Border. All of these interventions or proposed interventions are due purely to the SELFISHNESS of the boomers and their acolytes. Regarding the response to 9/11, even though this has nothing to do with the subjects mentioned recently, the war on terror would have been over and won had boomers not been SELFISH and had they simply began retiring in the early 2000s like they were supposed to. Then competent political and Military leadership would have won the war on terror and also strengthened deterrence against both Russia and China as well. This is what boomers took away from Xers and Millies (focus on the attacking soldiers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktcXN7fKiQs another example (look at the clip especially from 9:00 to the end of the clip, look especially at the soldier around 10:35 to 10:45 of the clip, THAT is what selfish boomers took away from Xers and Millies) https://vimeo.com/80267729 20-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay - John J. Xenakis - 09-19-2017 *** 20-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's 'telephone terror' forces evacuation of over 200,000 people **** Moscow police block the entrance to Louis Vuitton after bomb scare (Reuters) Dozens of Russian cities have been the target of hundreds of bomb scares, starting on Sunday, September 10. Police cleared two dozen buildings in the city of Omsk, including cinemas, schools, malls and City Hall. In Ryazan later that day, eleven malls and several cinemas and restaurants were evacuated. On Monday, there were 42 bomb scares in four cities. On Tuesday, 45,000 people were evacuated from 205 buildings in 22 cities across Russia. The bomb scares have continued every day. It's estimated that over 200,000 people have been evacuated in cities across Russia so far, costing the authorities about $5.2 million. And the end is nowhere in sight. The Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the bomb threats "telephone terrorism." The hoaxes are being perpetrated by unknown individuals calling in bomb threats from internet phone systems. Since the internet is everywhere, the bomb threats could originate from anywhere in the world. One report from an unnamed source says that the internet phone calls were tracked to an IP address in Ukraine. However, other sources in the Russia's Interior Ministry say that the hackers may be based in Brussels. Other theories are that the hoax phone calls are from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), presumably by Russian citizens from Chechnya or Dagestan who went to Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad. Russian authorities say that they're doing all they can to find the perpetrators, but for the time being, the authorities are stumped. Window on Eurasia and Moscow Times and Tass (Moscow) and Moscow Times **** **** Kenya's government in chaos as it faces a new election delay **** When Kenya's Supreme Court declared that the August 8 election was "invalid, null and void" because of electoral committee irregularities, it gave the government 60 days to hold a new election. A new election was scheduled for October 17, but Safran Identity and Security, the French IT consultants that provide electronic election management system, says that it will not have its systems ready by then, and is requesting that the election be postponed at least until October 26. The key players are unable to agree on the details of how to run the new election, and these disagreements raise doubts that any credible election can be held. The incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, who was reelected in the election declared invalid, has called the four Supreme Court judges who voted to nullify the election "crooks," implying that they were paid off by the opposition. Kenyatta's supporters have been protesting in fron the Supreme Court building, claiming that they stole the election from Kenyatta. The opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, blames the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), which oversaw the first election. Odinga is demanding that its members resign, claiming that the rigged the first election in favor of Kenyatta, and that he was proven right when the Supreme Court nullified the election. Because of numerous threats of violence, Supreme Court judge David Maraga issued a statement on Tuesday: <QUOTE>"1. You will recall that four weeks ago, the Judicial Service Commission addressed Kenyans through a press conference at this very place over the increasing incidence of attacks by various groups of people who were given to making threats and demands intended to interfere with the work of the Judiciary. 2. Since the Supreme Court delivered the judgement on the 2017 Presidential Election Petition on September 1, 2017, these attacks have become even more aggressive, culminating in lengthy uninterrupted demonstrations right outside the Supreme Court Building yesterday and today. 3. Whereas we recognise and respect the rights of citizens to picket as provided in the Constitution, these demonstrations have bordered on violence and are clear, intended to intimidate the Judiciary and 4. Further, in a particularly unfortunate incident yesterday in Kirinyaga County, Hon. Martha Karua was blocked by demonstrators from accessing the Kerugoya Law Courts for the hearing of her own petition. This amounts to intimidation of petitioners and should never be allowed to happen."<END QUOTE> The Supreme Court has said that on Wednesday (today), the Supreme Court would provide details of the reasoning behind its ruling nullifying the August 8 election. Standard Media (Kenya) and Bloomberg and Chronicle (Zimbabwe) and Twitter - David Maraga Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Omsk, Ryazan, Moscow, Dmitry Peskov, Ukraine, Brussels, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Chechnya, Dagestan, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, David Maraga, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, IEBC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go ban - John J. Xenakis - 09-20-2017 *** 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon **** A member of the national guard fires his shotgun during clashes in Caracas, Venezuela, in July (Getty) An economic analyst is advising Venezuela's government on ways to move Venezuela's assets out of reach of American and other international courts, if Venezuela defaults on its national bond payments, effective declaring national bankruptcy. Venezuela has met all its debt repayment obligations so far, but some analysts are predicting that Venezuela will default on bond payments before the end of 2017. Venezuela has an estimated $63 billion of bond obligations. The probability of default has increased substantially since August 25, when US president Donald Trump imposed sanctions that prevent further borrowing, either by the Venezuelan government itself, or by the nationalized state oil and natural gas company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). With both the government and PDVSA severely restricted in borrowing more money to make payments on existing debts, it's believed that there will be a default. On August 31, the Fitch Ratings service downgraded Venezuela's bonds from CCC down to CC, to reflect the increased chance of default after the new sanctions were imposed. Reuters (26-Aug) and Latin America Herald Tribune (31-Aug) **** **** Analyst advises Venezuela on keeping its assets safe from creditors **** A lengthy analysis by Mark Walker of Millstein & Co, co-authored by Richard Cooper at Cleary Gottlieb provides a roadmap for Venezuela to keep state out assets out of the reach of creditors. In particular, it describes methods for keeping the assets of PDVSA, the nationalized state oil company, away from its own creditors and the government's creditors. According to the analysis: <QUOTE>"As the humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis intensifies in Venezuela, so too does the complexity of the tasks the country must accomplish to reverse the 18 years of mismanagement and policy distortion that marked the presidencies of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. The difficulty of reforming the economy in the aftermath of these failed policies is compounded both by the need to carry out this reform in what is likely to be a wrenching change in the political landscape and by the fact that there are stakeholders in Venezuela with a strong interest in maintaining the status quo. That said, Venezuela has no other choice but reform and political change. The current government has openly opposed the reforms necessary to stabilize the Venezuelan economy and create the conditions for sustained growth. It has lost legitimacy and credibility internationally as well as domestically. The President and many of its senior representatives are isolated from discourse by sanctions imposed by the United States, and the acquisition and trading of new debt is now prohibited by the same U.S. sanctions, with other countries likely to follow. Accordingly, we start from the premise that the only Venezuelan government that will be able to carry out a restructuring of Venezuela’s liabilities is a government—which could be a caretaker or transitional government—that demonstrates a credible commitment to the necessary reforms and can undertake binding obligations in a restructuring whose validity under applicable laws is not subject to challenge."<END QUOTE> It's good that Walker and Cooper get these assumptions out of the way, because in my opinion the assumptions are unrealistic. In my opinion, Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros will never "demonstrate a credible commitment to the necessary reforms." This is the psychopathy we see today in governments around the world -- Syria's president using Sarin gas and barrel bombs on innocent women and children, the governments of Eritrea and Burundi using arrest, rape, murder and torture at will of anyone who expresses opposition to the government, or Burma's government using genocide and ethnic cleansing to eliminate a million Rohingyas. In my opinion, Maduro's government is headed in the same direction as the governments of Syria, Eritrea, Burundi or Burma, and not in the direction of "a credible commitment to the necessary reforms." Walker and Cooper agree with that, but make an even more unlikely assumption -- that Maduro will step down and give control to "a caretaker or transitional government -- that demonstrates a credible commitment to the necessary reforms." So having said that, let's look at the actual proposal: <QUOTE>"Accordingly, we see as the first step and priority in any restructuring process the implementation of measures to protect the country’s assets, particularly those vulnerable to seizure, such as the proceeds from the sale of oil, while it simultaneously commences discussions with the IMF, bilateral lenders such as China and Russia and market participants -- a process that will take several months at the least. Once the nation’s assets are secure, Venezuela will be able to enter into good faith negotiations with the official sector and its creditors, use its scarce foreign exchange in the best interests of the country and stop immediately the pursuit of dangerously uneconomic transactions whose sole purpose is to avoid a bond default. ... Knowing that a default is both inevitable and necessary, Venezuela must have as its highest priority the objective of protecting PDVSA’s cash generating assets located outside Venezuela."<END QUOTE> Maduro in "good faith negotiations"? I don't think so. Anyway, Walker and Cooper suggest several methods from Venezuela and PDVSA to effectively declare bankruptcy. They recommend that Venezuela modify its existing Venezuelan Public Sector Revitalization Law so that it will be recognized by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court as "a collective judicial or administrative proceeding in a foreign country," where "collective" means "one that considers the rights and obligations of all creditors" in allocating PDVSA's assets. This would mean, for example, that the law could not could not favor Maduro's friends -- Russia and China, who are owed $37.2 billion -- over American and other Western creditors. This would require an independent entity outside of Maduro's control allocating PDVSA's assets among creditors and, once again, in my opinion Maduro would rather eat mud than agree to anything like that. As a last resort, Walker and Cooper advise that if all else fails, then Venezuela should try to get the bankruptcy processed by a UK court, taking advantage of English law which may be more lenient. Finally, the Walker and Cooper paper returns to the assumption of a transitional government: <QUOTE>"Our premise, however, is that the current regime cannot today restructure its debt and that the Venezuelan Public Sector Revitalization Law will be enacted by a government that is attempting to overcome a humanitarian and economic crisis of historic proportions created by prior administrations. Far from imposing sanctions, we assume that at such time U.S. policy will be to promote a restoration of Venezuela’s economy and the revival of its democratic"<END QUOTE> So, the idea is that Maduro will agree to hand power over to an independent transitional government, and the U.S. courts will be extra-lenient, in order " to overcome a humanitarian and economic crisis of historic proportions created by prior administrations. Far from imposing sanctions." Well, stranger things have happened. And even if Maduro doesn't voluntarily step down, maybe Venezuela's army will finally force him to step down, for the good of the country. What the Walker and Cooper proposals really show is that Venezuela is at a fork in the road. If Maduro steps down and lets someone else govern, then some of the proposals discussed here could be implemented. It's tempting to say that never happens, but in fact Communist and Socialist governments did end peacefully in Cuba, East Germany and Russia, and returned to at least a semi-capitalist free economy. The other alternative is that Maduro refused to step down, and the streets are flowing with blood. Reuters and SSRN papers **** **** Maduro tells Venezuelans to breed and eat rabbits **** Yum! Dinner! Venezuela's Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros has inflicted enormous pain and humiliation of the country's people, with empty store shelves and shortages of everything from toilet paper to medicines to vegetables, jailing owners of closed factories, jailing bakers who make croissants or brownies instead of bread, accusing Twitter of attacking his government, one of the highest murder rates in the world, and an inflation rate of 33% per MONTH, forcing many people to forage for food in garbage cans. Now Maduro is announcing a "rabbit plan" to help out starving Venezuelans. He announced on state television, "For animal protein, which is such an important issue, a 'rabbit plan' has been approved because rabbits also breed like rabbits." However, the rabbit plan faced an early setback. Freddy Bernal, the head of Maduro's food program, distributed baby rabbits to families in 15 communities, as a pilot project. However, instead of eating the rabbits, people kept them as pets. According to Maduro, "When he came back, to his surprise he found people had put little bows on their rabbits and were keeping them as pets, it was an early setback to Plan Rabbit." Bernal is telling Venezuelans to get over their love of rabbits. People need to understand "that the rabbit is not a pet, but two and a half kilos of meat with high protein and no cholesterol put on the table of Venezuelans." BBC and Daily Mail (London) and VOA Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, Hugo Chávez, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., PDVSA, Fitch Rating, Freddy Bernal, Mark Walker, Millstein & Co, Richard Cooper, Cleary Gottlieb Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 16-Sep-17 World View -- What you should do about the huge Equifax data breach - Ragnarök_62 - 09-20-2017 (09-15-2017, 10:28 PM)Quote: John J. Xenakis Wrote:*** 16-Sep-17 World View -- What you should do about the huge Equifax data breach 1. I took the credit freeze with all three stooge credit bureaus. OK, Equifax didn't patch a known Apache but until , uh a lot later than the announcement. Then a bunch of bungled responses after that. So, are we sure the C suites are all GenXers? Howsabout outsourcing. Did Equifax use cheap H1-B replacers of Americans? I think Neo-liberalism is the main culprit. All in for because profits. Use money and loans to do stock buybacks, baby. 2.Credit freeze = you are no longer the product for these idiots. I deserve the right to copyright my identity bits. Quote:**** Yes a clusterfuck, but wrt Xer's sources please. <snip> Quote:The 2010 article that I wrote was about Citibank, and it proved RE: 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go ban - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-21-2017 (09-20-2017, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go bankrupt soon Regrettable whats happening in venuzuela, particularly the unlikeliness of the maduro government adopting sensible economic and social policies. However I criticizes the ideological argument that the article turned into particularly the implied argument you advanced when mentioning other regions such as syria and burma: Those arguments are another manifestation of typical boomer selfishness. Why can't boomers acknowledge the assad regime as syria's legitimate government. Regarding Burma/Myanmar there is the same thing; the ingrained refusal to acknowledge that the Burmese government and the tatmadaw are the legitimate authorities in those countries. The selfish Boomer deliberately conflates "democracy" with "human rights" tyranny. This effects relations with and between the US and other countries as well. Note that Chinese hostility to "democracy" has far more to do with attempts to force "human rights" reforms on China than any opposition to "democracy itself"; chinese conflicts with India for example have to do with territory and disputes over territory than any ideological opposition to "democracy" in india. Russia also has "democracy" and yet their policies are not dictated by "human rights" nonsense. As you mentioned in earlier posts a few days ago that India has sided with myanmar. Note that China too according reports has also entered the Burmese diplomatic fray over the Rohingyas, the Chinese too have announced they are siding with the Burmese government. So BOTH India and China have agreed that the strife in Burma is a purely internal matter for Burma. Why then is the US and europe constantly bringing up the Rohingya issue at the UN? This is just another example of baby boomers SELFISHNESS. Please reply to this post JohnX. Also JohnX please reply to my earlier post made on September 19. RE: 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go ban - John J. Xenakis - 09-21-2017 I'm not your servant, and just because you demand that I respond to your moronic repetitive rants doesn't mean that I have any obligation to do so. Whether I respond to something depends on whether I'm in the mood, whether I have time, and whether the subject is interesting to me. Since you mentioned Burma, I'll post a response that I gave to a question by another web site reader on my article on Burma's Buddhists committing genocide and ethnic cleansing on the Rohingyas about whether Islam is a "religion of peace." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Islam is NOT a religion of peace. In fact, there's no such thing as a religion of peace. In fact, no religion would exist for long as a "religion of peace," since its population would soon be exterminated by people of other religions who do NOT follow "religion of peace" policies. Let's take Buddhism as an example. Many commenters seem to believe that Buddhism is a "religion of peace." And yet, the Buddhist society of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the three or four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to the huge Christian genocides in Russia and Germany in the two world wars, or the huge Muslim genocides in the Mideast coming out of the collapse of the Ottoman empire, or the huge African genocides in the 60s and 70s, or the huge Chinese genocides in the 40s and 50s. Genocide and sex are driven by DNA, not by religion, and all religions have the same DNA. The Buddhist Cambodian killing fields genocide, 1975-79, killed something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population of 8 million. These millions of people were the subject of almost unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape. In fact, as I now look more closely at the Buddhist Cambodian killing fields genocide, it seems more and more apparent to me that the Buddhists in Burma may well be purposely imitating some of the techniques of their Buddhist cousins in the Khmer Rouge. This would be an example of one group of genocidal Buddhists learning genocide from another group of genocidal Buddhists. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Buddhism is a "religion of war," just like Islam and every other religion. No "religion of peace" would survive more than a few decades, if it weren't willing to become a "religion of war." RE: 21-Sep-17 World View -- With Trump's sanctions in place, Venezuela expected to go ban - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-21-2017 (09-21-2017, 06:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I'm not your servant, and just because you demand that I respond to JohnX, I'm not referring to the genocide in Burma itself and the dynamics that led to that. I'm referring to the international response to the genocide by various countries and the dynamics of those responses. The Boomers in the west have adopted a political line that is biased in favor toward the Rohingyas and Muslim separatists and biased against the Myanmar government. Both India and now China have adopted more sensible policies and well rounded policies regarding the conflict in Burma. Neither India or China are blaming everything on the Burmese government, both countries have policies that are willing to acknowledge that both sides actions have lead to the current bloodshed. I am criticizing the reaction of the boomber-dominated western governments which is basically to blame everything on the Burmese government and tatmadaw and claims that the guilt of the conflict rests entirely with those entities; in short the boomer political line basically says that the Rohingya separatists have done nothing wrong. 22-Sep-17 World View -- Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade - John J. Xenakis - 09-21-2017 *** 22-Sep-17 World View -- Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump imposes unilateral financial sanctions on North Korea **** Kim Jong-un in a Japanese news broadcast being broadcast on an outdoor video screen in Tokyo. (AP) President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order imposing a new round of sanctions on North Korea. The new sanctions were approved by the UN Security Council on Monday of last week, and attempt to leverage the power of the US financial system. On the same day, the European Union reached agreement to ban EU investment in North Korea. To my knowledge, no one seriously believes that these new sanctions will have any major effect on North Korea, any more than previous sanctions have, or that they will motivate the North Koreans to end its nuclear missile development program. President Trump's sanctions can apply to persons in any country outside of North Korea. The executive order calls for sanctions on persons involved in:
Sanctions may be imposed on any foreign financial institution in any country, if the institution conducts or facilitates trade with North Korea. The White House says that "Foreign financial institutions must choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating trade with North Korea or its designated supporters." Reuters and White House and Reuters **** **** Sanctions fall far short of military blockade first proposed **** According to the White House: <QUOTE>"The [Executive Order] directly targets North Korea’s shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks to facilitate international trade."<END QUOTE> Ships and aircraft that have visited or traded with North Korea will be banned from entering the United States for 180 days. However, this is far short of the kinds of sanctions that Trump had wanted to impose. According to the draft resolution that the US submitted to the Security Council two weeks ago, any U.N. member state would be authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying banned cargo and to use "all necessary measures to carry out such inspections." The banned cargo would include any "crude oil, condensates, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids," as well as textiles. The draft resolution called for an end to the hiring of North Korean nationals, which provide North Korea with hard currency. This would be an effective trade blockade on North Korea. Although any nation would be authorized to carry out the forced inspections, as a practical matter it's expected that only the US would actually do so. If a North Korean ship resisted the inspection, then there might be an exchange of fire that might escalate into war, putting Seoul, South Korea, into great risk. It was those fears of escalation that caused Russia and China to threaten to veto the resolution. In order to overcome the objections, the US agreed to water down the resolution to the point where it will have no effect at all on the North Korean regime. Earlier this week, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis was asked whether there were any military options the United States could take with North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk. Mattis said: “Yes there are. But I will not go into details.” Guardian (London, 11-Sep) and Bloomberg (13-Sep) and Reuters (18-Sep) and Washington Examiner **** **** North Korea threatens a 'Pacific Ocean nuclear test' **** In a statement a couple of days ago, North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un threatened the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history" against the United States. North Korea's Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho was asked on Thursday what that meant, and he said, <QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE> This action, if taken, would be just as much an escalation towards war that the proposed military blockade of North Korea would be. The hydrogen explosion would threaten shipping and planes flying overhead, and would release a great deal of radiation and cause environmental damage. So the United States and West have two possible paths forward -- a "peaceful" diplomatic approach (sanctions), amounting to appeasement, and a confrontational approach (blockade). The appeasement could trigger war from the North Korean side, while the blockade could trigger war from the American side. Either action leads to the same outcome. For almost 15 years, I've been writing Generational Dynamics analyses that predict that the world is headed for World War III, pitting the US, the West, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. The World War could be predicted, but the timing and the exact scenario leading to that war could not be predicted. But now we seem to be rushing toward war over North Korea, and neither Russia nor China seem willing to take steps to prevent it. As an additional note, there is a report that Steve Bannon had a secret meeting with a senior Chinese Communist Party official in Beijing last week. Bannon is an expert on world history, and is also an expert on Generational Dynamics. He was recently ousted from the White House as Donald Trump's chief strategy, but according to reports, he still has the president's ear. Bannon fully understands that the world is headed for a world war. Perhaps he hopes that by meeting with the Chinese, he can find a way to prevent it, although Generational Dynamics says that it can't be prevented. Yonhap (South Korea) and Sky News (Australia) and Washington Examiner Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, China, Jim Mattis, Ri Yong Ho, Steve Bannon Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-22-2017 Globalist neoliberalism will fall. Xers and Millies will revitalize America and the rest of the west after the fall of neo-liberal globalism. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 09-22-2017 Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-22-2017 (09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him. Famous last words. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 09-22-2017 (09-22-2017, 12:33 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we can take care of him. What are you hoping? That the crisis war can be put off forever? You must know that's impossible. 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Ca - John J. Xenakis - 09-22-2017 *** 23-Sep-17 World View -- The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Spain's government mounts massive crackdown to prevent Catalonia independence referendum **** In Barcelona on Thursday, a protesters holds up a banner reading 'I just want to vote' (Getty) The government of Spain is facing its biggest political crisis in decades, since the wealthy region of Catalonia is demanding independence from Spain, and is planning to hold an independence referendum next week on October 1. Catalonia's parliament passed a measure in September officially announcing its plan to hold a referendum on October 1. The parliament said that if the referendum passed, then it would declare independence from Spain within 48 hours. Tens of thousands of Catalans have taken to the streets in Barcelona, protesting the Spanish government and expressing support for the planned vote on Catalan independence. The Madrid government, backed up by Spain's Constitutional Court, has declared the referendum to be illegal. Spain's King Felipe and Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy have both publicly called on Catalans not to vote. Earlier this week Madrid began a major crackdown on Catalonia institutions to prevent the referendum from taking place On Tuesday, Madrid took to court 700 Catalan mayors for allowing preparations to go ahead. On Wednesday, the Guardia Civil, Spain's national police, stormed ministries and buildings in Barcelona belonging to Catalonia's regional government, including the economy department, foreign affairs department, and social affairs department. Fourteen high-ranking Catalan officials were arrested, infuriating the public. This was after the police went from building to building, raiding printers, newspaper offices and private delivery companies, searching for election materials, confiscating vote record forms, ballot boxes, and almost ten million ballot papers, as well as and campaign leaflets. It's quite possible that this crackdown will prevent the referendum from being held, although Catalonia official Oriol Junqueras said that there will be a vote, possibly using ordinary sheets of paper as ballot papers. However, it almost doesn't matter any more whether the referendum is held or not. Madrid's crackdown, which many criticize as an enormous overreaction, has infuriated the Catalans, and is leading to continuing anti-Madrid street protests. More than 40,000 people have gathered in Barcelona to protest over the arrests and the intervention of the Spanish government in the Catalan independence vote. Reuters and New Europe and El Periodico (Barcelona) (Trans) and Express (London) **** **** The 1930s Spanish Civil War fault lines explode again over Catalonia independence referendum **** The Madrid government has flooded Catalonia with almost ten thousand police officers, has stormed Catalonia's government buildings, has confiscated thousands of ballot papers, and arrested Catalonia government officials. To those with long memories, this looks a lot like the beginnings of policies that led to the Spanish Civil War. In the 1930s, during Spain's Second Republic, the government had granted Catalonia a fair amount of autonomy, though there were occasional bloody street fights between Anarchists and Communists. However, that autonomy changed with the Spanish Civil War (1936-39), which was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, and a prelude to the much larger World War II. Generalísimo Francisco Franco's fascist nationalism, aided by Italy and Germany, led to massive atrocities in Catalonia, with entire villages completely flattened by Benito Mussolini’s Italian air-force and the German Luftwaffe. Franco imprisoned, tortured and executed tens of thousands of Catalan people. At the same time, there were extremely bloody wars between the Anarchists and Communists. The war climaxed with the Battle of Ebro (July to November 1938), in which 15,000 pro-Republic Catalans died, resulting in victory for Franco. Franco marginalized the Catalans after the war ended, but during the generational Awakening era of the 1950s, Catalan groups were forming underground resistance and opposing Franco. Franco's death on November 23rd 1975 signaled the full beginning of the generational Unraveling era, with calls for renewal of democracy and self-rule in all regions of the country. In 1977, more than one million Catalans marched through the streets of Barcelona and asking for freedom, amnesty and self-rule. But only limited self-rule was allowed. Today, Spain is well into a new generational Crisis era, and as the survivors of the last crisis war die off, the fault lines that led to the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39 are reemerging. Catalonia's demand for an independence referendum, and Madrid's overreaction and crackdown on Catalonia last week resulted in little or no violence, but they represent a growing renewal of the tensions that separated Catalonia from Madrid in the 1930s. Guardian (London) and Catalonia Votes and This Is Spain Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, Barcelona, King Felipe, Mariano Rajoy, Oriol Junqueras, Generalísimo Francisco Franco, Germany, Italy, Spanish Civil War, Battle of Ebro Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-23-2017 (09-22-2017, 11:42 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Honestly, I hope Kim does something that can outrage people so we (09-22-2017, 12:33 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > Famous last words. (09-22-2017, 04:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What are you hoping? That the crisis war can be put off forever? I'm an extremely fatalistic person. So when I wrote "famous last words," I was saying that the outcome is going to be far worse than either of us is hoping, and therefore there isn't much point in hoping for anything. What's going to happen is going to happen, and hoping for something else is just going to lead to disappointment. Almost every day for 15 years, I've been writing about some of the most horrific human behavior -- not something in a fictional novel or in an episode of the gruesome tv show Criminal Minds -- but things that are actually happening to millions of people every day. And things aren't getting better. They get worse and worse very day. Doing this for 15 years has had an enormous effect on me. Writing about Generational Dynamics has brought me nothing but grief and unhappiness, but also a dark, obsessive fascination from watching all the predictions come true, and also an almost incomprehensible uncontrollable compulsion to keep doing it. In fact, as I think back over my life, dating back to my college days, I can see that everything that I've done in my life has been leading me inexorably to this role of a prophet. I no longer believe in free will, certainly not for populations or generations, but also even for individuals. It's as if someone else wrote out a script for my life that I'm forced to follow, and it's now nearly the end of Act III and the final dénouement, whatever that may be. I'm a person who fits into an ancient template. It's quite possible that I know more about what's going on in the world than almost anyone else in the world. But that's not a blessing or a gift. It's always been a curse to everyone it's happened to. I'm following a tragic script, just like the mythical Cassadra or the biblical Jeremiah, or even Winston Churchill -- though Churchill did well because of people skills that I don't have. So what am I hoping for? I know what's going to happen to the world, so I have no hopes for the world. My only hopes are for myself. As events unfold, I'm hoping that I'll be killed quickly and painlessly. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-23-2017 John, Potentially sacrificing Seoul is not the end of the world. If Seoul is bombarded just because south Korea and its allies are willing to defend themselves than the Kim Government would have proven itself to be a mad dog that would have to be destroyed. The international community would side with the US and south Korea. An added effect is that the US defense and deterrence position would be greatly strengthened. You however seem to think that any American action, even a little one that doesn't signal that "america is a doormat" would immediately trigger a cold war type WW3 nuclear exchange scenario. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-23-2017 (09-23-2017, 01:30 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John, Potentially sacrificing Seoul is not the end of the That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that final outcome cannot be prevented. I'm also saying that the immediate result of any individual action cannot be predicted. A military attack on North Korea may speed up the path to WWIII, because there will be retaliation, or the attack may slow down the path, because the attack will be sobering, even to China. But I don't think that anyone can seriously conclude that an attack on North Korea will resolve the matter once and for all, and not lead to any war at all. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-23-2017 But Putin especially and also Xi somewhat are supporting North Korea because they think the US will back down. The reason they think this is because the US usually has backed down when North Korea acts up. If we actually launch war against north Korea, Putin would probably back down immediately since the fundamental assumption behind his support for kim-jong-un would have just been proven false. Regarding China, the Chinese were able to rationally look at India's capabilities and defuse the situation (at doklam). They therefore would be able to look at the US resolve and back down. This does not even necessarily mean that China has to give up potential military expansion, they would just have to expand in directions away from the US and its treaty allies (most likely into interior Asia). This may still lead to a WW3 but that would be a very different war than the one that is currently more likely. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-23-2017 (09-23-2017, 02:04 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > But Putin especially and also Xi somewhat are supporting North For one thing, a lot of people believe that China and Russia are quite content to have North Korea build an arsenal of nuclear missiles targeted at the US, since they won't be targeted a China or Russia. But OK. Let's take your scenario. In fact, let's take the most optimistic scenario: there's an American strike on North Korea that kills the regime and destroys all the missiles and nuclear materials, and there's no retaliation on South Korea, and no retaliation on the US from China or Russia. Can we think of anything more optimistic than that? Then what happens next? Will China and Russia go to the UN Security council and sponsor a resolution thanking and congratulating the United States for doing such a great job? Hardly. The response by Russia and China will be vitriolic and belligerent. They'll say that the US used far more force than necessary; they'll say that a diplomatic solution was close to working; in fact, they'll claim that the diplomatic solution had already worked, and that the strike was completely unnecessary; and they'll say that now that now that there's no danger from North Korea, the US has to withdraw all troops, THAAD missiles, and other weapons from South Korea. They'll threaten the US with war if the US tries anything else military around the Korean peninsula. Of course, with the Kim regime destroyed, China will already have moved in and taken over the government in Pyongyang, to make sure that things run smoothly, and that there's no humanitarian disaster. (Of course there will be a huge humanitarian disaster, but we're assuming the rosiest, most Pollyannaish, most optimistic scenario.) What will the highly nationalistic and xenophobic people of China think? Will they suddenly love the US for taking out the Kim regime and his nuclear missiles? Hardly. They'll be furious about what happened, and they'll be spreading rumors about how the South Koreans and the Americans are jointly planning an attack on China. They'll demand that their leaders prepare for war with the US. This is the optimistic scenario, and the tensions will be worse than they are today. The Americans will refuse to withdraw from South Korea, and with China in control of North Korea, the South Koreans will be fearing an attack from China, and so they will not want the Americans to withdraw. It's not war yet, but even the optimistic scenario is solidly on the path to war. You say this would be a different WW3 than the one we're headed for now. Well I guess so, but I'm not sure what the difference would be. Either way, it will lead to an all-out generational crisis war, with every nuclear weapon in the world used on someone before the war ends. 24-Sep-17 World View -- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border s - John J. Xenakis - 09-23-2017 *** 24-Sep-17 World View -- Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Chinese and Indian behavior a study in contrasts during Doklam crisis **** China's President Xi Jinping greets India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mexico's President Enrique Peña Nieto at BRICS summit on Sept 5 in Xiamen, China, shortly after Doklam border agreement was reached (Reuters) The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16, when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention of annexing the region. The crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August 28. During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India were on the verge of a major border war, repeating a 1962 border war in which India was defeated. Initially, Bhutan troops tried to prevent the Chinese troop incursion, but they were overrun. India sent in its own troops, saying that it did so when Bhutan invoked a treaty with India and asked for help, resulting in a standoff. There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each other back. The Indian media were restrained, rarely saying anything that might inflame the situation or further anger the Chinese. The Chinese media were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its defeat would be even worse than the defeat in the 1962 border war. The international community was demanding that China and India hold negotiations to settle the dispute peacefully. Among the vitriolic threats during the crisis, China said that there couldn't be negotiations until India unilaterally withdrew its troops, and that China's army would destroy India's army if India didn't withdraw. So it was a big surprise on Monday, August 28, when China and India announced that they had agreed to pull back troops, to end the Doklam crisis. Even more surprising, it turned out that there had been secret negotiations going on for weeks, despite China's repeated insistence that negotiations were impossible until India unilateral withdrew its troops. Yale Global (14-Sept) **** **** Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff **** So who won? A lot of people believe that India won, because China was forced to back down and negotiate a mutual withdrawal. Others claim that China won in a different sense -- by proving that its army could strike at any point along the 2000 km border between China and India. There have also been reports that China will increase the number of troops stationed near the Doklam Plateau, so that it can be invaded and annexed later, when the time is right. In fact, a number of analysts believe that China backed off for now simply because the timing wasn't right. When China sent in its troops on June 16, they may have expected to overwhelm Bhutan's defenses and annex the region quickly and easily, but were surprised when India sent in troops to come to Bhutan's defense. Who would have won a military confrontation? I've seen analysts on both sides of this issue. One thing is certain: If it were a victory for China, it would not be an easy victory, and the conflict could spread to a naval battle in the Indian Ocean, or to other parts of the China-India border. There are several reasons why the timing was very bad for China to risk getting involved in a larger conflict with India. One problem is that there was a BRICS summit scheduled for September 4-5 in Xiamen, China. China invests a great deal of prestige in these international summit conferences when they're held in China, and wanted this conference to show China's importance in the world. BRICS is an acronym for five countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) that are considered to be emerging economies. If the Doklam crisis had not been settled, then India's prime minister Narendra Modi would probably have boycotted the BRICS summit, which would have been an embarrassment to China's president Xi Jinping. It's no coincidence that the Doklam announcement was made just a few days before the BRICS summit. Another issue for China is that the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee is scheduled for October 19. A blunder in Doklam could result in a brutal power struggle that forces Xi to step down, in the worst case scenario. Xi may still face criticism at the Congress for having to back down in Doklam, but probably not as much as in other scenarios. China's aggressive, belligerent policies in the South China Sea and elsewhere may have won praise among editorial writers in China, it leaves Xi Jinping with numerous questions about where he's leading China. Relations between China and its neighbors -- Japan, Vietnam, sometimes the Philippines -- are acrimonious. It's becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and no political peace in Hong Kong. And the blistering North Korea nuclear missile crisis presents extreme risks to China, as well as to the US. All of these issues mean that the time was simply not right for a border war with India. China can send troops into the Doklam Plateau any time it wishes, as suddenly as it did on June 16, and with everything else going on, and with the BRICS summit and the CCP Congress approaching, it was wiser to wait until next year. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India) and Rand (9-Sep) and Asia Times (6-Sep) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 30-Aug) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Japan, BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |