Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
|
RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - John J. Xenakis - 11-20-2017 (11-20-2017, 11:07 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote:(11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-19-2017, 01:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I question how different it is. There was plenty of government Yes, many don't, and yet, many do. RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - Cynic Hero '86 - 11-20-2017 (11-20-2017, 11:39 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:And that shows the delusion of boomers and silents. Why is it that those two generations want the world order to be based on overarching supranational organizations like the UN, EU, NATO, WTO, OPEC, etc; instead of world politics being handled at the national level. To most people born after about 1955 or so, this strikes them as Boomer tyranny.(11-20-2017, 11:07 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-19-2017, 01:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I question how different it is. There was plenty of government RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - John J. Xenakis - 11-20-2017 (11-20-2017, 12:22 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote:(11-20-2017, 11:39 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:And that shows the delusion of boomers and silents. Why is it that those two generations want the world order to be based on overarching supranational organizations like the UN, EU, NATO, WTO, OPEC, etc; instead of world politics being handled at the national level. To most people born after about 1955 or so, this strikes them as Boomer tyranny.(11-20-2017, 11:07 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-19-2017, 01:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I question how different it is. There was plenty of government Or, on the other hand, maybe it shows the wisdom and intelligence of the boomers and silents, and shows the clueless ignorance of the xers and millies. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 11-20-2017 This book of mine was originally published at the same time as The Fourth Turning, and it's about cycles and prophecy. I have always maintained that there is some overlap in the cycles. I have just republished my book on kindle ebooks, and it's available free this week. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077CBFCC4 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - noway2 - 11-20-2017 (11-20-2017, 02:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: This book of mine was originally published at the same time as The Fourth Turning, and it's about cycles and prophecy. I have always maintained that there is some overlap in the cycles. I have just republished my book on kindle ebooks, and it's available free this week. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077CBFCC4 Grabbed a copy. Thank you for the heads up. 21-Nov-17 World View -- China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis - John J. Xenakis - 11-20-2017 *** 21-Nov-17 World View -- China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Speculation grows of North Korea's Kim Jong-un illness as his weight soars **** The gargantuan Kim Jong-un inspects a tractor factory last week (AFP) A year ago, reports indicated that concerns were growing among North Korea officials about the health of child dictator Kim Jong-un, who had been gaining weight rapidly from consuming high-quality cheeses, Big Macs, vodka, steak, and sushi, and who had been apparently drinking heavily and smoking heavily, with the result that he was suffering from gout, diabetes, high blood pressure, high uric acid, and high cholesterol. Earlier this year, state media showed him limping. Now the speculation about his health has been growing again. Recent pictures show he has ballooned in weight again and appeared to be struggling. On a cosmetic factory visit, he was uneasy on his feet and needed a folding chair, while on another trip to a shoe factory his face was dripping in sweat. The child dictator has also been quiet for two months in provocative actions. The last ballistic missile launch was on 15 September, while the last nuclear test was on 3 September. Some analysts are attributing this long pause to American president Donald Trump's threat to unleash "fire and fury" on North Korea, and later adding that the military options are "locked and loaded," later referring to Kim as "Rocket Man." But other analysts speculate that this delay in nuclear and ballistic missile testing is another sign that he is unwell. Either way, nobody seriously believes that North Korea has ended its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing, and new tests can occur at any time. News Corp Australia and Deccan Chronicle (India) and Daily Star (London) Related: N. Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain (04-Aug-2016) **** **** China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis **** A special envoy sent personally by China's president Xi Jinping to North Korea has returned to China amid signs that he apparently failed in his mission. The envoy, Song Tao, met with several North Korean party officials. But as a special envoy sent personally by Xi Jinping, Song Tao should also have had at least a brief meeting with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, but several sources confirm that no meeting took place, something that is being interpreted as a snub directed at Xi Jinping himself. Even more important, there is no sign that any agreement was reached on the nuclear crisis, which many international observers had been hoping. When the envoy was first announced, even Donald Trump tweeted that it was a big move, and "we'll see what happens." Well, there was no sign of a breakthrough on the nuclear crisis, and the snub that Kim delivered to the envoy suggests that whatever proposal Song Tao brought with him from Kim Jong-un was not only rejected, but was rejected in as offensive a way as possible. Actually, proposal that China most likely advanced has already rejected by the US, referring to it as "insulting." At the United Nations in September, China stated its "freeze for freeze" proposal: <QUOTE>"The situation on the peninsula is deteriorating constantly as we speak, falling into a vicious circle. The peninsula issue must be resolved peacefully. ... The proposal by China and Russia of a two-track approach, which promotes the denuclearization of the peninsula, and the establishment of a peace mechanism in parallel the suspension initiative which calls for the DPRK to suspend its nuclear missile activities and for the United States and the Republic of Korea to suspend their large scale military exercises and the step by step conception from Russia are the basis on which both countries currently propose a roadmap to resolve the peninsula issue."<END QUOTE> Under this proposal, the United States and South Korea would end their annual joint military exercises, while North Korea would supposedly freeze its nuclear weapons development. This freeze for freeze proposal is something of a joke, since the West has made numerous concessions in the past in return for a North Korean promise to end nuclear weapons development, but they simply go underground with development, and later repudiate their promise whenever they want. At the same United Nations Security Council meeting, US ambassador Nikki Haley responded to the proposal statement by calling it "insulting": <QUOTE>"The idea that some have suggested the so-called "freeze for freeze" is insulting. When a rogue regime has a nuclear weapon, and an ICBM is pointed at you, you do not take steps to lower your guard. no one would do that, and we certainly won't."<END QUOTE> So, we don't know whether the same "freeze for freeze" concept was proposed by Song Tao to the North Koreans, but many believe that it was, and that it was rejected as firmly and offensively as possible. Xinhua and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Nikkei and The Diplomat **** **** Trump declares North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism **** President Donald Trump has announced that the US will designate North Korea a state sponsor of terrorism, referring to it as a "murderous regime." Iran, Sudan and Syria are currently the only countries on the list. North Korea used to be on the list, but it was removed by President George Bush in 2008 in the hope that it would convince the North Koreans to end their development nuclear weapons. However, as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson acknowledged, there are already so many international sanctions on North Korea that designating it as a state sponsor of terrorism will have little effect except symbolically. AP and Daily Mail (London) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, China, Xi Jinping, Song Tao, Nikki Haley, freeze for freeze, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Rex Tillerson Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - Warren Dew - 11-20-2017 (11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So I don't know what political or ideological point you're trying to I'm not trying to make a political or ideological point; I'm pointing out facts that may have a bearing on generational theory. Sure, the awakening activities in African countries are bloodier than during the most recent US awakening. It's a difference in degree, not in kind, though. It may just be due to differences in technological and institutional maturity. RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - tg63 - 11-21-2017 (11-20-2017, 11:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-20-2017, 10:13 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So I don't know what political or ideological point you're trying to it's an interesting commentary on where we are at (I don't just mean in this thread or forum, but writ large) ... it seems that everything everyone says is assessed in terms of what political or ideological point is trying to be made; it's no wonder that conversations by people across political ideologies is virtually impossible these days. RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - John J. Xenakis - 11-21-2017 (11-20-2017, 11:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'm not trying to make a political or ideological point; I'm In DRC, Burundi and Syria, government security forces are targeting specific tribes or ethnic groups, results in millions of civilians fleeing their homes and sometimes their country to escape government violence targeting civilians, including women and children. If someone on Breitbart made the argument you're making, I would assume that he was a paid troll of one of those countries, or that you just wanted to bash America, and I would probably be right. At any rate, nothing that happened in America even remotely resembled that. There were no security forces targeting specific tribes or ethnic groups, and there were no women and children fleeing their homes for another country to escape government violence. That only happens when the preceding crisis war was a civil war between tribes or ethnic groups within the same country. It's obviously impossible when the preceding war was an external war, because the war enemies are in a different country. This isn't rocket science. 22-Nov-17 World View -- Italy is blamed for shocking increase in slave trade in Libya - John J. Xenakis - 11-21-2017 *** 22-Nov-17 World View -- Italy is blamed for shocking increase in slave trade in Libya This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** CNN investigation finds thriving slave trade in Libya **** A migrant looks out of a barred door at a detention center in Gharyan, Libya, Oct. 12, 2017. (Reuters) While Americans have been riveted to the sexual harassment scandal, Europeans and Africans have been riveted to a CNN video that reveals a thriving slave trade in Libya. Reporters carried concealed cameras to a slave auction just outside Tripoli, the capital city of Libya. They witnessed a dozen men auctioned off in the space of six or seven minutes. That auctioneer says, "Does anybody need a digger? This is a digger, a big strong man, he'll dig. What am I bid, what am I bid?" The bidding goes on, and the man is auctioned off for $400-1000. Within minutes, the man is handed over to his new "master." The men are migrants who had come from countries like Niger, Chad, Mali and Algeria, and paid sometimes thousands of dollars to human traffickers to take them to Libya. Once in Libya, they would have to pay another human trafficker to put them onto a dangerously overcrowded boat, where they hope to reach Italy. But if they run out of money in Libya, then they can be imprisoned in detention camps, or sold as slaves. The CNN video and revelations about the slave trade in Libya resulted in sometimes violent protests in Paris, when over a thousand protestors demonstrated outside Libya's embassy in Paris, carrying banners saying, "No to slavery in Libya." The protestors threw stones at the police tried to break into the embassy, and the police fired tear gas. The demonstration was called by the Collectif contre l’esclavage et les camps de concentration en Libye (CECCL – the Collective against Slavery and Concentration Camps in Libya), set up in Paris after the CNN video was broadcast. On Tuesday, the UN Security Council approved a resolution urging tougher action to crack down on human trafficking and modern slavery worldwide. CNN (14-Nov) and Reuters and Libya Herald and Africa News and AP **** **** Italy defends its role in Libya's slave trade **** More than 600,000 people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East have arrived in Italy since 2014, and a record 180,000 refugees crossed the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy in 2016, but instead of setting a new record in 2017, the number of refugees has fallen substantially, thanks to deals that Italy's government made with Libya's tribes, warlords, and coast guard. Under the deals, Italy pays money to tribal militias and officials to prevent refugees from entering Libya or, once there, to detain them and prevent them from proceeding further on their trip to Europe. These deals have been heavily condemned by human rights organizations as inhumane, because it leaves the refugees vulnerable to abuse, and the slave auctions are being pointed to as evidence not only of abuse, but of a return to a slave trade that was supposedly a remnant of the past. However, the fact still remains that the policy, however cruel and inhumane, has led to a sharp drop in migrants reaching Italy, which is the outcome that Italian officials were seeking, especially after other EU countries refused to accept any of the refugees themselves. "The suffering of migrants detained in Libya is an outrage to the conscience of humanity," according to the UN. However, Italy's interior minister Marco Minniti defended the policy: <QUOTE>"The alternative cannot be to resign ourselves to the impossibility of managing migratory flows and hand human traffickers the keys to European democracies. [The human rights issue] is, was and will be a question we will not relinquish, but we know that condemning (abuses) is not enough, we must act."<END QUOTE> Minniti didn't specify any details, but he may be referring to a "revolutionary" proposal put forth by Italy's foreign minister Angelino Alfano two months ago. Under the plan, refugees in Libya would be evaluated, and 50,000 of the most vulnerable would be resettled to other countries. This plan sounds like wishful thinking, since a quote plan adopted by the European Union in 2014 has been a complete failure, because many EU countries refused to accept refugees for resettlement. AFP (15-Nov) and AFP (29-Sep) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, CNN, Libya, Niger, Chad, Mali, Algeria, France, Collectif contre l’esclavage et les camps de concentration en Libye, CECCL, Collective against Slavery and Concentration Camps in Libya, Italy, Marco Minniti, Angelino Alfano Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - Warren Dew - 11-22-2017 (11-21-2017, 12:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-20-2017, 11:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'm not trying to make a political or ideological point; I'm Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding crisis war? I note that Mugabe was forced to resign as Nixon was, suggesting there are still similarities between awakening patterns. Do you have an example of a first world country with an internally directed crisis war and subsequent bloody crackdowns, so we can differentiate between the effects of internal versus external crisis wars and the effects of development level? RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - John J. Xenakis - 11-22-2017 (11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding No. An interesting example is to look at the three countries, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. All three countries were involved in the Hutu-Tutsi genocide of 1994, but today the Burundi government is Hutu, while the Rwanda and Uganda governments are Tutsi. (11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I note that Mugabe was forced to resign as Nixon was, suggesting There are may similarities between awakening patterns. (11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Do you have an example of a first world country with an internally It's an interesting question, but the problem is that the phrase "first world country" is purely political. Is China a "first world country"? They're the second largest economy in the world, but they claim, for political reasons, that they're an "underdeveloped country," so that they can continue to blame the United States for every problem in the world. Is India a "first world country"? Is Russia? So I'll give you a useful working definition of "first world country": A first world country is one whose political development has advanced to the point where all the issues involving tribes and ethnic groups in its population have been resolved to the point where they no longer have tribal or ethnic crisis civil wars. Under that definition, all 2nd or 3rd world countries would still be having ethnic or tribal generational crisis civil wars, and so there will be ethnic and tribal crackdowns throughout the entire generational cycle, mostly beginning in the Awakening era, and continuing to the next crisis war. An interesting example might be the US itself, with regard to wars with Indian tribes. Those were crisis wars for the tribes, though not the US, but I believe that research would show that when the Awakening eras (for the tribes) arrived, then it would fit into the framework that I've described. But this would require a lot of research to figure out. A similar analysis could be performed on all the European countries that are considered "first world" today, to identify what happened in the decades following the Thirty Years War, the War of the Spanish Succession, and the Napoleonic wars. Once again, a lot of research is required. This concept really isn't that complicated. If you have people in the same neighborhood in the same village raping, torturing and killing each other during a crisis civil war, then one or both sides will be exacting bloody revenge in the ensuing decades. This is just human nature, and it's pretty obvious. RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - pbrower2a - 11-22-2017 (11-22-2017, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding ... or responsible people decide after the Crisis is over that perpetrators of the worst deeds will be severely punished, that waging war on the losing side will be treated with pardons and amnesties (American Civil War), and that further bloodletting will not be tolerated. So long as the bloodletting continues, the Crisis is not over. Could it be that the more advanced a country is in such measures as formal education, GDP per capita, and life expectancy that it is less likely to implode in a bloody civil war? OK, there are exceptions. India is very poor compared to what Yugoslavia was under Milosevic, but it has great ethnic and religious divides. At one point I looked at the per capita income in various countries and found that China (a few years ago) was right in the middle. The only significant country similar in per capita income was Mexico. It would have been easy to say that the middle-income countries in income were Mexico and China, and that everything else was 'rich' or 'poor'. Yes, China is 86 (Japanese takeover of Manchuria) to 67 (Communist takeovers of outlying areas of China) years away from its last Crisis Era, so it is likely in Crisis mode. A development bubble invariably leads to a financial panic. How will the Chinese leadership deal with that? RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - John J. Xenakis - 11-22-2017 (11-22-2017, 06:39 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > ... or responsible people decide after the Crisis is over that Just because there's bloodletting doesn't mean that the Crisis hasn't ended. Think of the Korean War, for example. I think that the part of The Fourth Turning book that most impressed me and stuck with me is the description of the crisis climax. Here's some text starting with page 257: Quote:> The catalyst can be one spark or, more commonly, a series of It's this "great gate" that's always stuck in my mind, and it's a concept that relevant to many of the historical examples that I've looked at. China's crisis climax occurred in 1949 when the Communist Revolution ended. India's occurred in 1948 when the Partition War was settled (though eastern India was on a separate timeline that climaxed in 1971). For Mexico it was in 1921 at the end of the Mexican Revolution, putting Mexico into a "fifth turning" today. Although one society dies and another is born, the new society still inherits memories of the old society. Those memories are passed on to the survivors' children in highly filtered form (each side remembers the other side's atrocities, but forgets its own), and those children begin to act on them in the Awakening era. 23-Nov-17 World View -- Thanksgiving euphoria in Zimbabwe as Emmerson Mnangagwa repla - John J. Xenakis - 11-22-2017 *** 23-Nov-17 World View -- Thanksgiving euphoria in Zimbabwe as Emmerson Mnangagwa replaces Robert Mugabe This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thanksgiving euphoria in Zimbabwe when Robert Mugabe resigns after 37 years **** Newspaper front pages across Africa express euphoria at the resignation of Robert Mugabe (BBC World News) On Tuesday, Zimbabwe's parliament was in session listening to speaker after speaker tell why president Robert Mugabe should be impeached and removed from office. Observers were claiming that the impeachment process would be completed within two days. In the middle of the legislative session, a messenger delivered a letter to the speaker, which he began to read aloud: <QUOTE>"The honorable Jacob Mudenda, notice of resignation as President of the Republic of Zimbabwe in terms of the provisions of Section 96 (1) of the Constitution of Zimbabwe (Amendment Number 20), 2013. Following my verbal communication with the Speaker of the National Assembly Advocate Jacob Mudenda at 13:53 hours, 21st November, 2017 intimating my intention to resign as the President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, I Robert Gabriel Mugabe in terms of section 96 (1) of the Constitution of Zimbabwe hereby formally tender my resignation as the President of the Republic of Zimbabwe with immediate effect. My decision to resign is voluntary from my heart and arises for my concern for the people of Zimbabwe and my desire for the smooth, peaceful and non-violent transfer of power that underpins national security, peace and stability. Kindly give public notice of my resignation as soon as possible as required by section 96 (1) of the Constitution of Zimbabwe."<END QUOTE> When he read the word "notice of resignation," there was wild cheering, the thumping of tables, dancing and singing. Mugabe had been Zimbabwe's dictator for 37 years, but now the age of Robert Mugabe was finally over. The euphoric celebrations quickly spread into the streets of the capital city Harare, when thousands of Zimbabweans flooding the streets, dancing and singing. There are a number of unanswered questions about Robert Mugabe's resignation. Did Mugabe really switch speeches at the last minute on Sunday just before his nationalized televised speech, double-crossing the army? Then, why did he suddenly resign on Tuesday? Where is Robert Mugabe now? Where is his young wife Grace Mugabe? Will either of them be charged with treason? BBC and Zimbabwe Herald and BBC Related: Robert Mugabe stuns Zimbabwe by refusing to step down (20-Nov-2017) **** **** Observers fear a new Zimbabwe dictatorship under Emmerson Mnangagwa **** Tuesday's euphoria over Mugabe's resignation was renewed on Wednesday with a speech by 75-year-old Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa to a very enthusiastic crowd. He said: <QUOTE>"The people have spoken. The voice of the people is the voice of God. Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and unfolding democracy. ... I have also communicated with the South African and Namibian Presidents as well as Former Tanzanian President Mr Jakaya Kikwete and they have applauded Zimbabweans for the peaceful manner and conduct during the operation. People want food, security and jobs. We need to work together to ensure we deliver. I dedicate myself to be your servant."<END QUOTE> Many Zimbabweans, as well as many observers, were thrilled to hear this skilled politician of many decades make promises of food, security, jobs and a new democracy, but others were skeptical. Although Mugabe recently fired Mnangagwa as vice-president, triggering the current crisis that led to Mugabe's downfall, the two men nonetheless worked closely together since independence in 1981. They're both in the Shona tribe, and they both are responsible for Operation Gukurahundi, the genocidal war crime that brought in North Korean soldiers to help exterminate tens of thousands of civilians in the hated Ndebele tribe. They've both cooperated in turning Zimbabwe into a police state, where anyone who speaks against the government is likely to be arrested, tortured and killed. This is particularly true of the members of the Ndebele tribe that managed to survive Operation Gukurahundi. They both worked together on Mugabe's "indigenization" program, which threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's and Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business. Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa turned Rhodesia, which was a wealthy country and the breadbasket of southern Africa, into today's Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket case. This transformation from breadbasket to basket case is very apparent to the people of Zimbabwe, and along with the sudden appearance of political freed is why the people are euphoric that Mugabe is gone. However, others point out that Mnangagwa is no different than Mugabe, and will purse the same brutal policies. This was already signaled on Wednesday when Mnangagwa gave his speech. He could have given it at a neutral venue, so that all segments of Zimbabwe society could attend. Instead, he gave it from Zanu-pf headquarters, which is the political party of the Shona tribe. And although he gave the speech in English, for the benefit of the international audience, he gave the last part of the speech in his native Shona language, for the benefit of his supporters, to the exclusion of others: <QUOTE>"Dogs can keep on barking and barking, while the train that is Zanu-pf continues to rule."<END QUOTE> This is the kind of language that Robert Mugabe used regularly, and Zimbabweans in the Ndebele tribe see this statement as a signal that Mnangagwa is going to be as violent towards the Ndebeles as ever. Mnangagwa is scheduled to be sworn in as president on Friday. After that, we'll see if anything has really changed. Zimbabwe Herald and BBC and Guardian (London) and Globe and Mail (Canada) and New Zimbabwe Vision (Blog) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Zanu-pf, Robert Mugabe, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Gabriella Engels, South Africa, Namibia, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Rhodesia, Shona, Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - Warren Dew - 11-22-2017 (11-22-2017, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding I don't think that's a very useful definition of "first world"; economic development would be better. With a more useful economic definition, whether or not China is a first world country now, they were certainly not at the time of their last crisis war. It may be a useful definition of some other demarcation, perhaps between politically primitive and politically advanced. However, the Russian Civil War wasn't tribal or ethnic, and yet their subsequent history was marked with bloody crackdowns and purges. One thing that might be needed for a first world economy is a free market economy. In that case the causality might go the other way: ethnic, tribal, or political crackdowns would tend to prevent or erode a free market as economic actors pandered to the people in power rather than putting their own interests first. As far as I can tell, though, the crackdowns aren't particularly limited to the awakening period. I'm not sure they really fit into a generational theory. RE: 17-Nov-17 World View -- Cambodia dissolves the opposition political party so that Hun - pbrower2a - 11-23-2017 (11-22-2017, 11:55 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-22-2017, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It's an interesting question, but the problem is that the phrase Except for rural poverty, China seems to have the odd combination of an advanced economy but a backward political order. That is an anomalous condition, the sort of contradiction that Hegel would recognize for having a need of resolution. Quote:It may be a useful definition of some other demarcation, perhaps between politically primitive and politically advanced. However, the Russian Civil War wasn't tribal or ethnic, and yet their subsequent history was marked with bloody crackdowns and purges. Which 1. the sociopathic personalities of Lenin and Stalin made bloody crackdowns and purges a certainty, and 2. ignores the nationalist struggles to escape centralized rule from Moscow. Let us remember that the Moldovans, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Finns succeeded in seceding from Russia. The Ukrainians and peoples from the Transcaucasus region and Central Asia were not so successful, The Whites would have nothing of any splintering of the Russian Empire that they intended to restore. Lenin firmly believed that in the chaos at the end of World War I, that world revolution would create one world socialist republic in which Soviet Russia would be primus inter pares. 3. Social classes formed blocks of people analogous to 'tribes', as Russia was, by 1917, a classic example of a failed state. Masrxist explanations of how capitalism worked applied very well to Russia. Quote:One thing that might be needed for a first world economy is a free market economy. In that case the causality might go the other way: ethnic, tribal, or political crackdowns would tend to prevent or erode a free market as economic actors pandered to the people in power rather than putting their own interests first. Is a free market economy the result of progress or something from which a consumer society forms? Of course, there is no modern example of a pure free-market economy. A capitalist order can be a brutal taskmaster, and pure plutocracy is no democracy. I can easily imagine a capitalist order in which 95% of the people are obliged to suffer for a minuscule fraction of the public. I see ominous trends in American politics, and the perverse personality of Donald Trump is a symptom and not a cause. Economic elites which deem their own gain, indulgence, and power as social priorities imply that those elites have become intensely selfish and demanding. Such was the norm of medieval times. The melding of elitist economics with Bolshevik ruthlessness constitutes fascism, typically a perversion of democratic processes into a command order. Of course the pathology developed slowly in America, with lobbyists becoming the real power in the legislative branch, and with anti-intellectualism becoming an indelible part of the political culture. People may want to believe, as Isaac Asimov described the anti-intellectual, that "my ignorance is as good as your science". Never mind that science has given us bigger crop yields and labor-saving machinery that make the consumer gadgets into trivialities by contrast. It may be possible that the political divide in America is not so much between rich and poor as it is between those who respect the mind and those who think the mind a haven for heresy and debauchery. Quote:As far as I can tell, though, the crackdowns aren't particularly limited to the awakening period. I'm not sure they really fit into a generational theory. Maybe Awakening-era crackdowns indicate that the leadership that has recently been micro-managing everything has become desperate to preserve its command-and-control ways. I think of the Soviet suppression of the Prague Spring and of the Chinese Cultural Revolution. There was no shortage of right-wing rhetoric in America calling for a crackdown against the people who challenged the post-WWII consensus of cultural conformity and mindless consumerism. Such went practically nowhere. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-23-2017 Here's an additional observation. Over the years I've written about many examples of how crisis civil wars begin. Usually the ethnic clashes begin in the previous Awakening era, and they're resolved by some sort of peace agreement. The peace agreement falls apart after a few months or a couple of years, and there are new clashes, so the cycle repeats. Throughout the Unraveling and the post-Unraveling portion of the next Crisis era, there are alternating periods of clashes and peace agreements, with each period of clashes worse than the previous one. Finally, there's a new regeneracy, and there's a full-scale civil war. That describes what happens BEFORE a crisis civil war involving tribal or ethnic groups, and in recent years we've developed new observations about what happens AFTER a crisis civil war involving tribal or ethnic groups. These new observations show that violent government crackdowns begin in the next Awakening era after the civil war, just as the new Prophet generation begins making anti-government protests. So now further research could be possible to paste these two sets of observations together, and get a complete picture of how one generational crisis civil war leads to the next one, from the point of view of generational theory. Using this technique, it might also be possible to identify factors that determine how likely it is that there will be the next crisis civil war. I would like to be able to say that if we figure this out, then we might come up some policy recommendations that any country could use after an ethnic or tribal crisis civil war to prevent the next one, but after 15 years of doing this, and almost 6,000 articles and Generational Dynamics analyses, I've become so thoroughly fatalistic that I don't think I believe that any political policies have any effect on anything, and that political objectives are never more than pure wishful thinking, and that what's going to happen is going to happen, irrespective of what the politicians do. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-23-2017 The discussions on awakenings connected, for me, with a transition that is happening from leading edge to trailing edge millenials. I wonder if another way of viewing the awakening is as a transition from dogmatic leading edge civics to more open minded trailing edge civics. Full post in the millenial forum here: http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-3595.html 24-Nov-17 World View -- India and China support Burma (Myanmar) on Rohingya ethnic cl - John J. Xenakis - 11-23-2017 *** 24-Nov-17 World View -- India and China support Burma (Myanmar) on Rohingya ethnic cleansing for business reasons This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Burma makes farcical agreement with Bangladesh to take back Rohingya refugees **** A Rohingya girl in a Bangladesh refugee camp, her face covered in 'thanaka', a comestic makeup paste widely used in the region, made from ground bark (AP) Ethnic cleansing "clearance operations" by Burma's (Myanmar's) army have driven some 620,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Rakhine State into Bangladesh, threatening to destabilize the entire region. Burma and Bangladesh have now reached an agreement to return the Rohingyas starting in three months, but only after all the appropriate forms have been filled out for each one. Burma's Buddhist army has been conducting atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas in Rakhine State since 2012. In November of last year, the United Nations found that Burma's army was "killing men, shooting them, slaughtering children, raping women, burning and looting houses, forcing these people to cross the river" into Bangladesh. Satellite images showed that Burma's army was burning down entire villages where Rohingyas had lived for decades, in order to perform ethnic cleansing -- "cleanse" Rakhine State of all Rohingyas. The attacks were led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of the Buddhist community. 969 is supposed to promote peace and happiness, although Wirathu's 969 movement is a vehicle promoting violence. And now the Burma's army is apparently taking over the movement with ethnic cleansing. After several years of these atrocities by Burma's army, Rohingya activists have formed the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), which attacked 8 Burmese police posts in October of last year. These attacks provoked a wave of deadly "clearance operations" by Burma's army, and forced tens of thousands of Rohingyas to flee the violence into Bangladesh. On August 25 of this year, ARSA conducted coordinated attacks on 30 police outposts and an army base. This became a major violence trigger for the entire Burmese army. Whereas the "clearance operations" by Myanmar's army previously appeared to be reasonably disciplined, after August 25 they became extremely undisciplined and disorganized, to the point of mass bloody chaos, with the results that thousands fled across the border to Bangladesh each day. There are now around 620,000 Rohingya refugees in refugee camps in Bangladesh. Burma's "clearance operations" of Rohingyas is also creating a diplomatic problem for the Pope, who is scheduled to visit Myanmar on November 26 to December 2. The Pope is being cautioned not even to use the word "Rohingya," for fear that Burma's army will turn from murdering and cleansing Rohingyas to murdering and cleansing the Christian minority, particularly the 700,000 Roman Catholics. On the other hand, if the Pope says nothing, then he risks his moral authority, in the same way that Pope Pius XII lost his moral authority for not criticizing the Nazi Holocaust. According to Father Thomas Reese, an analyst at Religion News Service: <QUOTE>"He risks either compromising his moral authority or putting in danger the Christians of that country. I have great admiration for the pope and his abilities, but someone should have talked him out of making this trip."<END QUOTE> On Wednesday, for the first time, the US administration raised the threat of targeted sanctions against Burmese officials, when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson referred to the "horrendous atrocities" as "ethnic cleansing" of Rohingyas. This has raised fears of a backlash, with the result that the US embassy in Myanmar on Thursday suspended official travel to parts of Rakhine until 4 December and warned citizens against visiting the areas. The agreement that Burma and Bangladesh have reached for the return of refugees looks to me like a joke. There are 620,000 refugees, and the number is still growing every day. Return of refugees won't begin for three months, and then only when forms have been filled out, submitted to the Burma military, and approved. This is clearly a stalling maneuver by Burma, and signing it is an act of desperation by Bangladesh, who are still overwhelmed by the waves of refugees. Reuters and News24 (Bangladesh) and Reuters and Sydney Morning Herald **** **** China proposes farcical three-point solution to Rohingya crisis **** Last week, China said that Myanmar and Bangladesh should shut out the international community from interfering in the Rohingya crisis, but then offered itself to interfere by mediating between the two countries. According to Chinese state media, China offered a three-phase solution to the "Rakhine issue," without mentioning the Rohingyas:
China's third phase is particularly farcical. There's poverty in every country in the world, but it doesn't result in hundreds of thousands of refugees. The "Rakhine issue" is not caused by poverty. It's caused by Buddhist monks, members of the so-called religion of peace (Buddhism), and Burma's Buddhist army committing war crimes, raping, torturing and killing innocent civilians, not because of poverty, but because the Burmese vitriolicly hate the Rohingyas and would like to exterminate them. China should understand this, because it has conducted similar operations in the past, with its Han Chinese army committing atrocities against its hated Buddhist Tibetans in China. Basically, China's three-point proposal is a farce. Global Times (Beijing) and China's Foreign Ministry and Reuters **** **** India and China support Burma on Rohingya ethnic cleansing for business reasons **** In September, India's ministry of external affairs issued a statement saying: <QUOTE>"We stand by Myanmar in the hour of its crisis, we strongly condemn the terrorist attack on August 24-25 and condole the death of policemen and soldiers, we will back Myanmar in its fight against terrorism."<END QUOTE> India's statement made no mention of the atrocities committed by Burma since 2012, nor the "clearance operations" that have forced 620,000 Rohingyas so far to flee the violence. As we wrote last month ( "7-Oct-17 World View -- Burma's Rohingya crisis merges with the Kashmir crisis, inflaming the entire region" ), Pakistan is siding with the Muslim Rohingyas. ARSA is linking up with anti-Indian jihadist groups in India-controlled Kashmir, so India officials see the Rohingyas as an existential threat. India has also threatened to expel nearly 40,000 Rohingya migrants it says have illegally settled in the country. So there's a historical irony here. The ethnic cleansing and war crimes by the Burmese have destabilized the region to the extent that India feels that it must support the army committing the ethnic cleansing and war crimes. In September, Hong Liang, China's ambassador to Myanmar, made a similar supportive statement: <QUOTE>"The stance of China regarding the terrorist attacks in Rakhine is clear, it is just an internal affair; the counterattacks of Myanmar security forces against extremist terrorists and the government’s undertakings to provide assistance to the people are strongly welcomed. China’s help for the Rakhine crisis is just a social obligation. The president of the Chinese Entrepreneurs Association, the vice president of the oil and gas pipeline project and responsible personnel from the Kyauk Phyu Deep Sea Port Project were brought here together with him; the company wished to provide assistance to the displaced persons."<END QUOTE> As with India, the Chinese never mentioned the atrocities committed by Burma since 2012, nor the "clearance operations" that have forced 620,000 Rohingyas so far to flee the violence. However, the Chinese statement highlights why China supports Myanmar despite the massive ethnic cleansing and slaughter. There are large gas reserves off the coast of Rakhine State, and China brings gas from Kyauk Phyu on Rakhine's coast through the Myanmar-China Gas Pipeline. This gas meets the needs of China’s Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces as well as that of other counties and cities. The transportation of this gas is more important to China than the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas. India also has huge infrastructure projects in Rakhine, including the India-funded Kaladan multi-modal project designed to provide a sea-river-land link to its remote northeast through Sittwe port. Both India and China fear the threat of terrorism on the Rakhine infrastructure projects, as well as on Indian and Chinese soil. Indian intelligence expert Major General Gaganjit Singh asks: <QUOTE>"What if ARSA terrorists attack an Indian ship on the Kaladan river or try blowing up parts of the Yunnan-Kyauk Phyu oil-gas pipeline as the [separatist group United Liberation Front of Assam] used to do in [the Indian state of] Assam? Such scenarios cannot be discounted."<END QUOTE> Readers may recall that in September there was a threat of war between India and China over a border conflict in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. That dispute was suddenly and unexpected settled and analysts could only guess at the reasons. Part of the speculation was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or into the Indian Ocean. Now there's another possibility: the fear that a Doklam border conflict might spill over into the Rakhine infrastructure projects of both countries. South China Morning Post (18-Oct) and Jamestown and Global New Light Of Myanmar and CNBC Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rakhine State, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Clearance operations, China, India, Buddhism, Ashin Wirathu, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, ARSA, Pope Pius XII, Nazi Holocaust, Father Thomas Reese, Rex Tillerson, Hong Liang, Yunnan, Myanmar-China Gas Pipeline, Kyauk Phyu, Kaladan, Sittwe, Gaganjit Singh, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |