Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 12-14-2017 (12-13-2017, 01:34 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(12-13-2017, 01:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-13-2017, 09:28 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Selfish Boomers refuse to allow a strike on North Korea. The problem here is that the selfish boomers are emotionally attached to the idea of america as the world's policeman. This attachment causes boomers to reject any option that contradicts that role. The US has the military assets to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea, the boomers just refuse to do so for ideological reasons. Thanks for the clarification. I think actual policemen often shoot first - and sometimes the gun they thought they saw in the other person's hand was actually a cell phone - but at least I understand what you mean. I agree that a transition to a more overtly imperial America would be good, and I'd even agree I'm in the minority of boomers for thinking that. Do you think most millenials would welcome an imperial America? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 12-14-2017 (12-14-2017, 12:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-13-2017, 01:34 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(12-13-2017, 01:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-13-2017, 09:28 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Selfish Boomers refuse to allow a strike on North Korea. The problem here is that the selfish boomers are emotionally attached to the idea of america as the world's policeman. This attachment causes boomers to reject any option that contradicts that role. The US has the military assets to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea, the boomers just refuse to do so for ideological reasons. What to do about NORK is an interesting question I've engaged Warren on before. It's a tempting option to get rid of a totalitarian leader and his hypnotized country which threatens us and the free world. An imperial America is what Republicans favor; Greens, Democrats and Libertarians don't. An imperial, garrison, Republican America acts preemptively to impose its will and standards on other countries. As a "selfish" boomer I reject an imperial and garrison America, and collegial millennials do as well. For a preemptive strike on the NORKS to work, it would have to be big and precise enough to wipe out not only all its nucs and potential nucs, and all of its government, but also all of its army, much of which is stationed just north of Seoul. It would have to kill many North Koreans in that process, probably, and some South Koreans too, probably. If this is not quickly and totally successful, a NORK counterattack on South Korea, Japan and the USA would kill millions of ourselves and our allies. The further risk is that NORK's ally, China, and possibly Russia as well, would respond by attacking the USA and its allies. China would not defend NORK if NORK struck the USA first, but WOULD defend NORK if it were attacked first. That's the deal. A preemptive strike on NORK cannot be carried out "in conjunction with" China. 15-Dec-17 World View -- Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly div - John J. Xenakis - 12-14-2017 *** 15-Dec-17 World View -- Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly divided over policy This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** European Union continues to face crises regarding migration **** Child migrant in Greek refugee camp (AFP) After receiving millions of migrants in 2015 from the Mideast and northern Africa, the European Union implemented some stopgap measures to control the situation.
Each of these methods has been extremely successful in significantly reducing the flow of migrants from Turkey and Libya, respectively. However, in a sense they haven't solved the problem at all, but instead stretched it out. Furthermore, with winter approaching, the season of heaviest migration is ending for now, but there will be a new surge of migration within just a few months. Current and approaching problems include the following:
Al-Jazeera and PRI and Amnesty International and EurActiv (20-Oct) and Reuters **** **** Bitter divisions emerge at EU summit over migration issues **** With the vast majority of migrants to Europe reaching Greece or Italy first, these two countries have been overwhelmed. Both countries have begged for help from the European Commission (EC), but there's been little help beyond rhetoric. In 2015, the EU adopted a migrant quota system last year that was supposed to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other EU countries. The plan fell apart because few countries were willing to accept their quotas, and Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania refused to resettle any refugees at all. In the end, only about 30,000 refugees were ever resettled under this plan. At an EU summit on Thursday that was supposed to be a show of EU solidarity and unity, especially with the Brexit talks going on. But bitter political divisions erupted after EU President Donald Tusk described the refugee quota program as "divisive and ineffective," and called for it to be replaced. According to a letter issued by Tusk, the migrant program will once again reach crisis levels by June of next year: <QUOTE>"After the unprecedented migratory pressure on its external border in 2015, the European Union and its Member States are gradually restoring control. However, the migration challenge is here to stay for decades, especially due to the demographic trends in Africa. Despite our efforts, the smugglers are working energetically to exploit further vulnerabilities at our borders. A crisis situation can reoccur and so in order to prepare ourselves, we need to categorically strengthen our migration policy. To achieve this, we should first look at what has and has not worked in the past two years. On this basis, we should establish an effective and sustainable migration policy based on secure external borders and the prevention of mass arrivals. It also requires finding a consensus by June 2018 on the internal dimension of our migration policy, based on the concepts of responsibility and solidarity."<END QUOTE> Tusk says the existing quota system has to be scrapped and replaced by a new system before June 2018. He concludes by saying: <QUOTE>"On the basis of the discussion, Leaders will return to these issues with a view to seeking a consensus in June 2018. If there is no solution by then, including on the issue of mandatory quotas, the President of the European Council will present a way forward."<END QUOTE> The quota system has essentially been a fiction, but a fiction that allowed the EU member countries to pretend to their domestic audience that the problems had been solved. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have led criticism of Tusk's proposal. Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras said that Tusk's comments were "aimless, ill-timed and pointless." Italy's prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni, said, “We will continue to insist that a commitment on the relocation of refugees is needed.” Three countries, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, came out in favor of Tusk's proposal because they have no intention of implementing a quota system anyway. In explaining why Poland would not accept any refugees, Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, "It is worth investing considerable amounts of money in helping refugees in (regions) they are fleeing from. The help on the ground there is much more effective." The Czech Republic's prime minister Andrej Babis, said that "It won't happen," and any attempt to impose "nonsensical" quotas in a majority vote would only widen the divisions in the EU. In response to Hungary's refusal to accept refugees, Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte has described Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán as ‘shameless’ for refusing to accept any refugees and attempting to buy off his obligations with money. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Dutch News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Libya, Aegean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Lesbos, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Donald Tusk, Alexis Tsipras, Paolo Gentiloni, Mateusz Morawiecki, Andrej Babis, Mark Rutte Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-15-2017 To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and Millennials want to fight FOR an imperial state they want to GO totalitarian we want a garrison state. Most Xers and Millennials despise boomers and DO NOT want to fight AGAINST totalitarianism. The younger generations despise human rights tyranny. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-15-2017 (12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and You should be a standup comedian. In fact maybe you are. Are you? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 12-15-2017 (12-15-2017, 07:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and What's amusing about that? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-15-2017 (12-15-2017, 07:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(12-15-2017, 07:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and Sorry, you're right. I guess it's not funny after all. 16-Dec-17 World View -- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal milita - John J. Xenakis - 12-15-2017 *** 16-Dec-17 World View -- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea **** China's continuing military buildup on Fiery Cross island. This year alone, there was construction on buildings covering 27 acres, or about 110,000 square meters (AMTI/CSIS) China's relations with Australia have taken a sharp downturn following the November publication of Australia's "2017 Foreign Policy White Paper," which harshly criticizes China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea. The White Paper says the following: <QUOTE>"The South China Sea is a major fault line in the regional order. Australia is not a claimant state and does not take sides in the competing claims. Like other non-claimant states, however, we have a substantial interest in the stability of this crucial international waterway, and in the norms and laws that govern it. We have urged all claimants to refrain from actions that could increase tension and have called for a halt to land reclamation and construction activities. Australia is particularly concerned by the unprecedented pace and scale of China’s activities. Australia opposes the use of disputed features and artificial structures in the South China Sea for military purposes. We support the resolution of differences through negotiation based on international law. All claimants should clarify the full nature and extent of their claims according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Government reaffirms its position that the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the Philippines South China Sea Arbitration is final and binding on both parties."<END QUOTE> According to Australian analyst Nick Bisley, Australia in the past year has become increasingly outspoken in its criticism of Beijing’s behavior, particularly in the South China Sea, but also because of China's interference in Australian domestic affairs. According to Bisley: <QUOTE>"But after I recently spent a week in China talking to scholars, analysts and commentators, it is also clear that the sourness in Canberra is being reciprocated. The mood among Chinese elites ranges from head scratching puzzlement to outright hostility. The people involved in these discussions are Australia specialists, many have studied here, sent their children to study here and have a generally positive disposition toward to the country. Ordinarily, scholars from China tend to be cautious and often voice their opinions obliquely. Not this time. [Australia's] very public backing for the arbitration tribunal decision and its repeated figuring in public pronouncements appears to be a major concern. 'Australia is not a claimant, so why does it make it such an issue?' the Chinese wonder. Indeed, Australia has no disputes or conflicting security interests with China yet it repeatedly emphasizes that China is making the region less secure. This seems to get under the skin of many scholars and commentators."<END QUOTE> The issue, of course, is that China is an international criminal according to a harsh July 2016 ruling by a Tribunal at the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea" ) The ruling eviscerated all of China's claims to the South China Sea, and declared its construction of artificial islands and military bases in international waters in the South China Sea to be illegal. Australia Foreign Policy White Paper **** **** China reacts contemptuously to Australia's foreign policy white paper **** Pretty much any criticism of China infuriates them, but probably nothing infuriates them more than any mention of the July 2016 Tribunal ruling, which essentially made China an international criminal. So if Australia is increasingly concerned about China's military threat to the region and the world, then it's not surprising that Australia has frequently made reference to the Tribunal ruling. And if Australia is making frequent reference to the Tribunal ruling, then it's not surprising China is directing more and more of bottomless supply of fury at Australia. The Foreign Policy White Paper has drawn a particularly large tsunami of contemptuous criticism from China's media. These criticisms have called the white paper "irresponsible." It labeled Australia a "distant propaganda outpost" agitating against China. It called Australia "ungrateful" for not appreciating all of the economic benefits they've had because of China, and threatened that China "could relegate ties with Australia to the back of the line, and ignore its immature outburst." What I found very interesting about Bisley's remarks is that the Chinese are supposedly bewildered and puzzled by the criticism, since Australia isn't directly involved in the South China Sea. It's similar to when a man beats up his wife and then is bewildered and puzzled why anyone else should care, since they aren't involved. The Australians are of course concerned that China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea could result in a regional war in which Australia will be forced to participate. In fact, Australia is directly involved in the South China Sea as $3 trillion of commercial traffic passes through it each year. China's military belligerence in the South China Sea is of concern to Australia, the whole region, and the whole world. For Chinese scholars, analysts and commentators to be bewildered and puzzled by Australia's concern is just a sign of how delusional the Chinese people are, something that I've written about many times as typical in a generational Crisis era. In the case of the Tribunal ruling, some of China's evidence to support it claims turns out to be delusional or a complete hoax. Many Chinese people believe that their dictatorship is inherently stronger than the "weak" Western democracies, and that they'll win any war easily. Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism. China is becoming a military dictatorship, is annexing other countries' territories as Nazi Germany did in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and is adopting strong nationalist, xenophobic and racist views targeting the Tibetans, Uighurs, Japanese, South Koreans, Philippine people, and Vietnamese. As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional, irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false claims. China is preparing for a war that it believes it will win, but instead will cause the worst catastrophe in history, to itself and the entire world. China Daily and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Australian Broadcasting Related Articles
**** **** China continues aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea **** China's aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea has been out of the news for a while, but not because it hasn't been occurring. New imagery released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) show that China has been aggressively implementing illegal offensive and defensive weapons systems on their artificial islands. According to AMTI: <QUOTE>"AMTI has identified all the permanent facilities on which China completed or began work since the start of the year. These include buildings ranging from underground storage areas and administrative buildings to large radar and sensor arrays. These facilities account for about 72 acres, or 290,000 square meters, of new real estate at Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief Reefs in the Spratlys, and North, Tree, and Triton Islands in the Paracels. This does not include temporary structures like storage containers or cement plants, or work other than construction, such as the spreading of soil and planting of grass at the new outposts."<END QUOTE> According to AMTI, "China is poised to substantially boost its radar and signals intelligence capabilities." There's an irony here that this is the same kind of capability that comes with America's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defense systems. China has been infuriated that there are THAAD systems deployed in South Korea, but at least those are legal. China's radar systems in the South China Sea are a violation of international law. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI) and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** Trump to target China's unfair trade policies in National Security Strategy **** President Donald Trump will target China by alleging unfair trade policies in a National Security Strategy (NSS) to be released on Monday. Trump will accuse China of exploiting the international trade system. According to the current draft: <QUOTE>"The United States helped to expand the liberal economic trading system to countries that did not share our values in the hopes that these states would liberalize their economic and political practices, and provide commensurate benefits to the United States. Experience now suggests that these countries distorted and undermined key economic institutions without prompting significant reform of their economies or politics."<END QUOTE> Since taking office, Trump has sought to maintain friendly relations with China, even treating China's president Xi Jinping as a kind of BFF, in order to elicit cooperation on the North Korea nuclear missile crisis. This new NSS statement appears to be at least a partial U-turn on that policy, at a time when relations between Australia and China are reaching a new low. Free Beacon KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, China, South China Sea, Nick Bisley, Fiery Cross reef, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, AMTI, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, South Korea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-16-2017 Threats From Russia, China and North Korea. Yet boomers consistently reject the implementation of a garrison State. The boomers disgusting ideals are costing the western world greatly. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-16-2017 Boomers have no right to tell Xers and Millies to be pillars of a democracy they despise when the boomers themselves cowardly ran away from their war during the 1960s. Instead the boomers actively blocks the way for any building of society and instead steers us toward a direction in which the war phase of the crisis is essentially a re-run of the last crisis war, simply because the boomer astonishingly thinks we weren't ideological enough in war strategy during WW2. On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended shortly after the battles of Normandy and Saipan in mid-1944 rather than the historical end dates in mid-1945 had the US not been wedded to the childish policy of unconditional surrender and regime change. The Boomer's nonsensical conclusion is that we should have invaded and democratized Russia and China after the war rather than settling down for the cold war. Can you selfish boomers imagine how BORING the current saeculum would have been without the communist USSR, Red China and the Arab and Asian nationalist States? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-16-2017 (12-16-2017, 07:47 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended No that's not true. You're thinking of a non-crisis war. A generational crisis war like WW II is a fight to the death, and does not end in any sort of compromise or settlement. It requires an "explosive climax," something so horrific that it stops both losers and winners from fighting further, makes them vow to spend their whole lives making sure it doesn't happen again. WW II could not end before such events as the firebombing of Dresden, the fall of Berlin, and the nuking of Japan. "the facts show that ... probably" -- what weasel words -- can I call you a stand-up comedian yet? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-16-2017 (12-16-2017, 08:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(12-16-2017, 07:47 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended Without unconditional surrender Hitler would have been assassinated either by the army or even by the nazis themselves. Japanese leaders acknowledged behind closed doors that they lost the war after saipan and marianas turkey shoot. The US historically however insisted on unconditional surrender and regime change which the militarists adamantly resisted because they would have been executed by the allies after the war. Without unconditional surrender they would have had no reason to attempt a fight to the end. I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the post-WW2 world a non-completely destroyed Germany and Japan would have been useful buffers against the soviets. Thus we would not have had to fight the cold war. The Dominant boomer Conclusion that we should have worked to democratize Russia and China is what is utter nonsense. Once again, can Boomers imagine how BORING the current saeculum would have been without the Communist USSR, Communist China, and the Arab and Asian nationalist states. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-16-2017 (12-16-2017, 09:02 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the You must be thinking about a different WW II than I am. In the WW II that I'm thinking of, Japan and Germany were NOT completely destroyed, as can be easily proven by the fact that both countries still exist today. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-16-2017 (12-16-2017, 09:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:They were destroyed as great powers, After the war the US was the only country that was capable of counter-balancing Stalinist Russia, hence the cold war.(12-16-2017, 09:02 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the 17-Dec-17 World View -- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in Nort - John J. Xenakis - 12-16-2017 *** 17-Dec-17 World View -- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea **** A North Korean soldier squats along the Yalu River in Sinuiju, North Korea, which borders Dandong in China's Liaoning province, Sept 9, 2017. Chinese government advisers are warning that "North Korea is a time bomb," and China must prepare for an unpreventable nuclear war on the Korean peninsula. China used to be able to control the North Korean government, but it was losing control, and "Northeast China should mobilize defenses for war." Shi Yinhong, a university professor that advises the Beijing government, says that nuclear war is inevitable: <QUOTE>"Conditions on the peninsula now make for the biggest risk of a war in decades. North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion, hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the detonator."<END QUOTE> The logic behind this claim is similar to the same logic that many American analysts have been using, and the same logic that I've been writing about. North Korea will not be dissuaded from its goal of having an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the United States, which he will use in an extortion to gain control of South Korea, and he will sell the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology to rogue states like Iran and Venezuela. Trump will not allow this to happen, and so one way or another a war will begin in the next 6-18 months. Nanjing University professor Zhu Feng said that no matter how minor the possibility, China should be prepared psychologically and practically for “a catastrophic nuclear conflict, nuclear fallout or a nuclear explosion": <QUOTE>"Why do we always act like ostriches? Why do we always believe a war won’t occur? What China needs is a sense of urgency about its declining influence in strategy related to the peninsula and the way it brings down China’s status and role in East Asian security issues."<END QUOTE> Chinese analysts give as a principal cause of the imminent war the fact that the US and South Korea hold joint military exercises. South China Morning Post and Newsweek and Quartz and South China Morning Post (9-Dec) **** **** Concerns grow over the threat of a North Korean nuclear reactor disaster **** A recent video went viral showing North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un standing next to an untested liquid-fueled missile. The video prompted a torrent of tweets expressing regret that Kim’s lit cigarette had not "solved the problem for us." The video illustrates the fact that North Korea does not take seriously the need to operate its nuclear reactors safely, as Western nations and China do. Even a small nuclear accident that could normally be contained could turn into a catastrophic disaster if North Korea did not respond quickly and correctly. Even a small nuclear accident would generate widespread panic as word began to leak out, because of North Korea's lack of transparency and the fact that they would deny that anything is happening. In the case of Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster, Japan was completely transparent about what was going on, but there was still public panic. After a disaster in North Korean, the regime would suppress all reporting of the incident, and they would probably refuse help from outside countries. The resulting panic would spread into China, South Korea and Japan. 38 North and South China Morning Post Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, Zhu Feng Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 12-17-2017 Disgusting Boomers destroy Freedom and Liberty in the name of democracy and world government. Boomers are violating Xers and Millies rights to have a government not shackled by human rights tyranny. Boomers are violating Xers and Millies rights to Choose a garrison state and to choose the Military Rules of engagement the young prefer. Tyrannical Boomers claim to love democracy yet routinely violate the founding document of that democracy, the constitution. 18-Dec-17 World View -- Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly movin - John J. Xenakis - 12-17-2017 *** 18-Dec-17 World View -- Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China **** Zhangmu in Tibet, in China, just across from the Nepal border (Bob Witlox/Flickr) The country Nepal is a strip of land, about 500 miles long and 100 miles wide, that separates a part of the border between India from China's Tibet. With China and India on the verge of a border war, Nepal becomes extremely important strategically to both India and China. Nepal recently held elections under a new constitution adopted in 2015. These elections will elect 275 members to the House of Representatives and 550 representatives to the assemblies of the seven newly-created provinces. The elections have been won overwhelmingly by a "Left Alliance" of two hyphenated communist parties -- the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center (MC). These two parties have been locked in adversarial conflict and rivalry for years, but they've put aside their differences in a marriage of convenience to form a governing coalition. The Left Alliance will control not only the national government, but also six of the seven provinces. Analysts say that the emergence of the Left Alliance does not necessarily mean that Nepal's voters prefer communism to democracy. Instead, the vote express a new nationalism which has three key components – the search for political stability and peace, the demand for fast and comprehensive development and assertion against India. For centuries, Nepal was governed by a Hindu monarchy with close ties to India. In 2001, Crown Prince Dipendra got drunk at a party and gunned down the entire royal family, and then killed himself. Dipendra's motive turned out to be that he had wanted to marry his girlfriend, Devyani Rana, but his parents had refused. This triggered a renewal of a Maoist insurgency that had begun in the 1990s. This is Nepal's first free election in a secular republic, replacing the monarchy with an elected government. My República (Nepal) and The Wire (India) and Al Jazeera **** **** Nepal reacts to India's bungled meddling over the new constitution **** Nepal has long been one of the world's poorest countries, and 2015 was a year with one major disaster after another. Two massive earthquakes struck Nepal on April 25 and May 12, 2015. More than 8,800 people were killed, and 600,000 homes were flattened. Millions of people were left with inadequate food, clean water and shelter. Nepal still has not recovered from that disaster. The earthquake came at a time when the government was in a state of almost total paralysis, because the constitutional transition Hindu monarchy to a secular republic was in process, triggering massive demonstrations, especially by the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu ethnic group in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India. The new constitution was adopted on September 17. On September 24, the Madhesis began massive demonstrations, blockading the truck traffic passing between India and Nepal. This was a disaster for Nepal's economy, which depends on imports from India for many goods, including petroleum and cooking gas, forcing many manufacturers to shut down. Nepal blamed India for the border blockade, saying that India's prime minister Narendra Modi was using the blockade to force Nepal to eliminate clauses in the new constitution that the Madhesis claim discriminate against them. Some people say that the recent victory of the Left Alliance was a reaction to India's bungling two years ago in handling the blockade. Nepal media are debating whether the election results mean that Nepal is moving away from India towards China. China has been trying to improve its influence in Nepal since the removal of the Hindu monarchy, and so the victory of the Left Alliance represents a kind of victory. It also allows politicians, even those who favor India, to say that the Left victory is a victory for nationalism and independence from the "Indian bully." However, the Madhesis and other Hindu ethnic groups form 40% of the population, and they would oppose choosing China over India. Also, Nepal can't go too far in alienating India, because of the economic dependences. Nepal is a landlocked country, and the only way to transfer goods to or from the Indian Ocean is through India and the port of Vishakhapatnam on the Bay of Bengal. Realizing the alarm that many people feel over their victory, the Left Alliance has released a statement: <QUOTE>"As per the directions made by the constitution of the Nepal, we will develop the relation with friendly nations especially the neighboring countries and the international unions and organizations on the basis of independent foreign policy."<END QUOTE> The statement added, "We, the left power, are committed to form a stable government and fulfill the promises which we made before." My República (Nepal) and ANI (India) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, India, China, Left Alliance, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist, UML, Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center MC, Crown Prince Dipendra, Devyani Rana, Madhesis, Narendra Modi, Vishakhapatnam port Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-Dec-17 World View -- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau - John J. Xenakis - 12-18-2017 *** 19-Dec-17 World View -- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau **** New satellite images show Chinese road construction in Doklam region (NDTV) New satellite images of the region surrounding Bhutan's Doklam Plateau reveal that China is resuming its military buildup, after pulling back from a military standoff with India during the summer. There are reports that China has positioned in the Doklam region more than 1,000 soldiers who are likely to remain in the area throughout winter for the first time. China built two helicopter platforms, dozens of houses and stores, and upgraded roads to cope with the very severe winter. The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16, when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to prevent the annexation. There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each other back. The descriptions of the situation in the Indian media were restrained, to avoid inflaming the situation. The Chinese media were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its defeat would be even worse than India's defeat in a 1962 border war. So when the crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August 28, and analysts could only guess at the reasons. During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India were on the verge of a major border war, and it seemed that India would not back down for any reason. Part of the speculation for why China backed down was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or into the Indian Ocean, and China did not want a war at that time just before an international meeting to be held in Beijing, to be followed by the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee is scheduled for October 19. The prosaic explanation was that China had backed down so that they could build up their military forces and try again. China says that the new military infrastructure and troops are for peaceful purposes, just as they claim for the South China Sea. India's Lt Gen Abhay Krishna of the Eastern Command on Saturday said the Army is totally geared up to face any situation in the Doklam sector: <QUOTE>"The Indian Army is always in very high spirits, we are always ready to take on any mischief by anybody. I am not going to name anybody specifically. Territorial integrity is ingrained in our blood and for that we will go to any extent to ensure the territorial integrity."<END QUOTE> Sputnik News (Moscow) and New Delhi TV and The Diplomat and Indian Express Related Articles
**** **** Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam **** After their meeting, China's foreign minister Wang Yi used his arm to comfort India's foreign minister, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (Indian Express) Last week, the foreign ministers of India and China met, and discussed Doklam. India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj held talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. After the December 11 meeting, Swaraj said: <QUOTE>"Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I agreed that we should further strengthen our mutual trust to develop a better understanding between the two parties. And it will be better to meet again, and without agenda, which will help us to expand our mutual understanding."<END QUOTE> However, Wang Yi's statement was considerably more blunt: <QUOTE>"The matter was finally settled peacefully through diplomatic means, reflecting the maturing of bilateral relations. However, lessons should be learned and should be avoided again."<END QUOTE> What lessons was Wang referring to that should be learned? In a speech last week, Wang said: <QUOTE>"We handled the Indian border troops' trespass into China's Dong Lang (Dokalam) area in our national interest, on just grounds and with restraint. Through diplomatic means, we engaged with the Indian side and it withdrew its equipment and personnel."<END QUOTE> A web site reader posted a comment about a time when he asked a Chinese girl whether America and China were going to war: <QUOTE>"I met a Chinese person at Toastmasters. I asked her this. Her reply was along the lines of 'There will be no war. America just has to grow up and learn its place.'"<END QUOTE> Another web site reader responded to my observation that any criticism of China infuriates them. He wrote: "Spades don't like to be called a Spade. And the main reason they are so touchy is because they think they are the supreme, superior race. So the article's comparison of China to German Nazi National Socialism is spot on." Indian Express Related Articles
**** **** China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March **** A couple of days ago, I quoted Chinese experts who warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea. On Sunday, an article in China state media Global Times quoted Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang as follows: <QUOTE>"The war on the Korean Peninsula might break out anytime between now and March next year," Wang said, stressing that "China should be psychologically prepared for a potential Korean war, and the Northeast China regions should be mobilized for that." "Such mobilization is not to launch a war, but for defensive purposes," he added.<END QUOTE> There are two things of note:
In my article, I estimated that a war between the US and North Korea would begin within 6-18 months, though 3 months is a possibility. The time frame probably depends more on what North Korea does than anything else. Wang suggests that the war would be localized. That may be true for a while, but once these things start, it would start spreading. I would expect it to reach Europe within at most two years. Global Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan, Abhay Krishna, Sushma Swaraj, Wang Yi, Wang Hongguang Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Dec-17 World View -- Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan gove - John J. Xenakis - 12-19-2017 *** 20-Dec-17 World View -- Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq **** Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a religious guidance that called on the Iraqi people to take up arms against ISIS in 2014. Tens of thousands of Shia people answered his call. (AFP) Thousands of Kurds attacked several offices of the main political parties of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the rioters were teachers, students and civil servants, protesting austerity and unpaid public sector salaries. Iraqi Kurds have never gotten along well with any of their neighbors. During Iraq's last generational crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the climax occurred in 1988 when Saddam Hussein used WMDs (poison gas) on both the Kurds and the Iranians. Because the Kurds want to form an independent Kurdistan, containing pieces from Turkey and Iran as well as Iraq, all three countries have cooperated in putting sanctions on the Kurds. Iraq's government in Baghdad allowed the Kurds to self-govern in some limited areas with the formation of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, the region of Iraq predominantly populated by Kurds. When the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) captured Mosul in 2014, and took control of much of Iraq, the peshmerga, the Kurdish militias, were a crucial part of the military effort to recapture Iraq from ISIS. However, the Kurds were never rewarded for their bravery. After Mosul was recaptured earlier this year, the KRG decided to a referendum on seceding from Iraq and forming an independent Kurdish state. This referendum was opposed almost universally in the international community, and it particularly alarmed all of Kurdistan's neighbors. So the Kurds might have gotten some economic benefits and some additional self-governance, but after the referendum passed on September 25, everybody seemed to ask, "You helped us beat ISIS, but what have you done for me lately?" Iraq, Turkey and Iran cooperated in putting harsh economic sanctions on Kurdistan, and Iraq launched a military operation that recaptured areas that the Kurds were occupying following the war against ISIS. The sanctions caused Kurdistan's economy to suffer, and the military operation triggered fights between factions among the Kurds. The fighting has now gone on for two days. Since Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Iran/Iraq war, there are many survivors of the war that do not want so see the current situation spiral into a bigger civil war. Rudaw (Kurdistan) and Reuters and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and The National (UAE) **** **** Iraq's Baghdad government splits over role of Iran-backed Shia militias **** Iraq's Shia militias, the Hashd al-Shaabi militia or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), with links to Iran, were also crucial to the defeat of ISIS in the last two years. However, the PMF were accused of massive human rights abuses, targeting ordinary Sunni citizens in several cities where they fought to expel ISIS. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, in 2014 called on the Iraqi people to take up arms against ISIS. Tens of thousands of Shia people answered his call that then resulted in the birth of the Hashd al-Shaabi. Now that ISIS has been defeated, al-Sistani is praising the "historic achievement" of the Hashd forces, but is now saying that the time has come to merge the Hashd militias into the regular Iraqi army. The Hashd have 140,000 registered fighters which is about half the size of the Iraqi army. Al-Sistani said that it is the duty of the state to now take care of the Hashd fighters financially and otherwise, and the families of those who lost their loved ones. This call has renewed the political conflict between the powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki. Supporters of the two held huge protests that turned violent earlier this year. Al-Sadr, who has close links to the ayatollahs in Iran, supports the call. However, al-Maliki, who is building a coalition in preparation for next year's elections, wants to keep them out of the army, so that they will support him next year. If they were in the army, they would be prohibited from having political ties. Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, and is in a period of massive political chaos similar to their last generational Awakening era in the 1930s, as I described in my 2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq." However, just as the political chaos of the 1930s did not spiral into war, it won't do so today either. Rudaw (Kurdistan) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Mosul, Kurdistan, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, Iran, Turkey, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Hashd al-Shaabi militia, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Moqtada al-Sadr, Nouri Al-Maliki Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 21-Dec-17 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN Rohingya investigator. as genocide - John J. Xenakis - 12-20-2017 *** 21-Dec-17 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN Rohingya investigator. as genocide charges are raised This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN investigator from investigating atrocities against Rohingyas **** Rohingya boys in Burma search through the ashes of their village after it was burned down by Buddhists (Reuters) Yanghee Lee, the United Nations' special investigator on the Rohingya crisis in Burma (Myanmar), has been blocked from doing any further investigation by officials from Burma. She had previously made several invited visits to Burma as part of her investigation, and was recently invited to come again in January. After being barred on Wednesday, Lee said that "there must be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine," referring to years of genocidal attacks on Muslims, especially Muslim Rohingyas, by Buddhists, led by led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969 movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and nine qualities of the Buddhist community. "969" is supposedly a sign of peace and happiness, but Wirathu and the Burmese have turned "969" into a sign of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Buddha must be turning over in his grave. In a statement, Lee said: <QUOTE>"I am puzzled and disappointed by this decision by the Myanmar Government. This declaration of non-cooperation with my mandate can only be viewed as a strong indication that there must be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine, as well as in the rest of the country. [After promising continued cooperation two weeks ago,] now I am being told that this decision to no longer cooperate with me is based on the statement I made after I visited the country in July. ... The Government has repeatedly denied violations of human rights are occurring throughout Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine state. They have said that they have nothing to hide, but their lack of cooperation with my mandate and the fact-finding mission suggests otherwise."<END QUOTE> What Lee said in July was that it was "unacceptable" that people meeting her were watched and even followed by agents. Lee's official title is UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar. She has visited Burma six times since she began her mandate in June 2014, although the government has consistently refused access to some areas. United Nations and Reuters and Al-Jazeera (22-July) **** **** Burma officials, including Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges **** Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights, says that after years Buddhist slaughter, rape and ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims, it's possible that Burma's leader, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges, as well as Gen Aung Min Hlaing, the head of Burma's army. Since 2011, I've been using the word "genocide" in an informal sense to describe the atrocities that Burmese Buddhists are conducting against Burma's Muslims, especially the Rohingya Muslims. By 2013, thousands of Buddhists were making frenzied attacks on Muslims in cities across Burma, with multiple rapes, murders and atrocities, killing dozens. In one publicized event in the town of Meiktila, Buddhists took 20 Muslim boys from a madrassa, and hacked them to death, soaked their bodies in petrol and set them alight, leaving a blackened patch of ground. This was a major milestone in Burma's genocide of Muslims, similar to Kristallnacht, when the Nazi Germans made the same kinds of frenzied, uncontrolled attacks on Jews in 1938. These attacks were led by racist Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, who calls himself the "Buddhist Osama bin Laden." He was pictured on the cover of Time Magazine on July 1, 2013, with a caption, "The Face of Buddhist Terror." He advocates the extermination of all Muslims in Burma, and many Buddhists are killing, raping and mutilating Muslims, burning down their homes and villages, because Wirathu tells them to do it. During 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, the massive genocidal attacks by Burma's army on Rohingyas have driven over 600,000 Rohingyas into Bangladesh, killing, raping and mutilating them, burning down their homes and villages. The United Nations became particularly alarmed in August 2017 when some Rohingya activists attacked some Burma border posts, triggering a massive increase in the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas. An analogy in the US would be that after Black Lives Matter killed a policemen, if the US army started entering black neighborhoods and killing, torturing and raping all the black civilian residents, including women and children. Burma's Buddhist genocide of Muslims is the second-worst genocide so far this century, the worst being Bashar al-Assad's Shia/Alawite genocide of Sunnis in Syria. Aung San Suu Kyi is turning out to be the Hitler of Burma's genocide. Although I've used the word "genocide" informally, Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein is suggesting that it may actually be proven formally in a court of law: <QUOTE>"For obvious reasons, if you're planning to commit genocide you don't commit it to paper and you don't provide instructions. The thresholds for proof are high. But it wouldn't surprise me in the future if a court were to make such a finding on the basis of what we see."<END QUOTE> Zeid said that he spoke to Suu Kyi in February 2017, and asked her to stop the atrocities: <QUOTE>"I appealed to her to bring these military operations to an end. I appealed to her emotional standing ... to do whatever she could to bring this to a close, and to my great regret it did not seem to happen."<END QUOTE> Ethnic cleansing "clearance operations" by Burma's (Myanmar's) army have driven some 620,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Rakhine State into Bangladesh, threatening to destabilize the entire region. BBC and News Corp (Australia) and Straits Times Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Yanghee Lee, Ashin Wirathu, "969 movement", Buddha, Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, Aung San Suu Kyi, Aung Min Hlaing Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |