Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-21-2018 (01-21-2018, 11:33 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > So selfish Boomers prevent other countries from exercising their Wait a minute. Isn't this message just a copy and paste of your last 200 messages? You must REALLY hate your father. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 01-21-2018 Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance of a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-21-2018 (01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness. Maybe it is simpler than that. Murder universally offends the sensibilities of practically everyone. If forty years earlier the victims were Jews and this time the victims were Muslims... so what? It is still wrong. Smaller scale? I find a robbery-murder in a convenience store appalling. If to save one life is to save the world, as one saying goes, to murder one person is at the least a murder of the world. The British, Americans, and Soviets could do only one thing to thwart the Holocaust, and that was to hasten the victory over the demonic power killing so many people. But dealing with Serb butchers was far easier. We could do something this time. Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act. "Selfish Boomers"? Sure. I can tell you all about Boomer elites in ownership, management, and politics. They treat anyone not born into their class like peons and expect us (including Boomers like me not part of such an elite) to consider such treatment beneficence. Maybe they would have been nicer had they had to do farm chores as kids. Maybe they would be nicer had they not had rooms all to themselves in the Suburbia of the post-WWII era. Maybe they would treat others better had they not found it so easy to avoid doing military service in Vietnam. The worst Boomers got to grow up like aristocrats , and they could never recognize that their privilege resulted from the toil of others. Those of us Boomers who knew some hardships in life, whether poverty or a handicap, or even doing unglamorous military service, are much more decent. Unfortunately the Boomer elites have deemed us disloyal for having some chips on our shoulders and unworthy of opportunity, so we don't get to shape economic and bureaucratic decisions in more humane ways. Selfish? I consider the effort to thwart Serb butchers a consummately selfless act. Xenakis may be wrong about you. You probably hate your mother just as much as you hate your father. Get help! 22-Jan-18 World View -- Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' p - John J. Xenakis - 01-21-2018 *** 22-Jan-18 World View -- Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Multiple Afghanistan Taliban terror attacks leave 'victory' plans in tatters **** The enormous Kabul Intercontinental Hotel that was under attack for 16 hours this weekend (Tolo News) The claims by the Afghanistan government and the US-led coalition forces that the Taliban is finally under control were completely undermined this weekend by three separate terrorist attacks by the Taliban. The most spectacular of the attacks was a 16 hour siege of the Intercontinental Hotel in the capital city Kabul. Attackers dressed in army uniforms and armed with automatic weapons stormed the hotel on Saturday evening. They sprayed the areas with bullets, and forcibly entered some rooms and killed the people inside. Social media showed parts of the building catch fire, after which guests tied sheets together to escape from their rooms. Afghan security forces fought the attacks in a gun battle that lasted well into Sunday. Afghan government officials says that four Afghan civilians and 14 foreigners were among those killed. Other reports indicate that the death toll was well over 30. A Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, claimed credit for the attack, saying, "Our five fighters, Bilal, Ayubi, Khalil, Bashar and Abid entered the building and conducted the operation that resulted in the death of 10 foreigners and Afghan government officials." However, Afghan government officials say that there were only four attackers. This was not the only Taliban terrorist attack to occur on Sunday. In Balkh province in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban claimed credit for an attack that killed 18 Afghanistan militiamen on Sunday. In Herat province in western Afghanistan, eight people were killed by a roadside bomb. No one claimed credit, but it's assumed that the Taliban were responsible. The Taliban were probably targeting police or the Afghan military, but since the eight people killed were ordinary civilians, the Taliban would want to avoid the bad publicity of claiming credit. There is one thing about Sunday's attacks that I found very interesting: That there were no claims of credit from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Usually, a militia in the Taliban carries out these terror attacks, and then the ISIS public relations agency, Amaq, claims credit for the attack, even though ISIS was not involved and probably didn't even know it was going to happen until the read about it online. Now that ISIS has been defeated in both Syria and Iraq, and the "Islamic State" brand name has been thoroughly humiliated, it may be that the Amaq PR agency is no longer in business. At any rate, Taliban terror groups that used to vow allegiance to ISIS are apparently now back to being just plain, old Taliban terror groups. Tolo News (Kabul) and Fox News and Al Jazeera and Reuters **** **** Sunday's attacks throw new doubts into claims of 'victory' in Afghanistan **** As I've been writing for years, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, a "victory" in Afghanistan is impossible. Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge. There is absolutely no way that this new young generation of Pashtuns are going to enter into any "peace process" with representatives of the hated Northern Alliance, brokered by the old geezers in the Kabul government, supported by the United States. The whole concept of such a "peace process" is so completely ridiculous and absurd that you'd have to be a full-time resident of Fantasyland to think that it's possible. So the Taliban attack on the International Hotel in Kabul on Sunday was intended to destroy the credibility of the Afghan government and the US-led coalition, and it undoubtedly succeeded. A massive car bombing in Kabul in July of last year killed 36 and wounded dozens more. It was an attack on the ethnic Hazara community in Kabul, and the Hazaras were one of the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance fighting the Pashtuns. In August of last year, dozens of civilian men, women and children, mostly Hazara Shia Muslims, were massacred in a two-day gun battle in northern Afghanistan. About 50 people were shot and killed, 30 houses were torched and burned to the ground, several mosques were set ablaze, and an unknown number of villagers were taken hostages. Seven Afghan troops and 12 Taliban militants were killed in the fighting. With regard to the two other attacks on Sunday, in Balkh province in northern Afghanistan and Herat province in western Afghanistan, news reports don't indicate what ethnic groups were targeted, but it's almost certain that the targets were government forces or Northern Alliance ethnic groups. These kinds of attacks are not going to stop. In fact, as more and more members of this young Pashtun generation come of age, the attacks are going to increase. As I wrote in an analysis last year, the Trump administration is probably well aware that there is no hope of any meaningful "victory" in Afghanistan, but they may have a larger purpose in mind. There are several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. So remaining in Afghanistan allows us continued use of those bases, as the war with China and Pakistan approaches. This may be a similar strategy to the one that the US military is following in Syria. The US announced a "Border Security Force" (BSF) and a continuing commitment of forces to Syria to avoid repeating the 2011 Iraq withdrawal blunder without leaving any forces behind, allowing the rise of ISIS in Iraq. The US has backed off from the BSF, now calling it a kind of local police force, but its purpose is the same - to maintain a residual American force in Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. The strategy in Afghanistan is similar -- maintain a residual force in Afghanistan, not with the hope of defeating the Taliban, but with the ability to maintain and support valuable military bases. This is an extremely complex strategy, but it makes a great deal of sense as war with China and Pakistan approaches. In the meanwhile, we should expect a lot more bad news. Khaama Press (Kabul) and Stars and Stripes and Tolo News (Kabul) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Intercontinental Hotel, Taliban, Zabihullah Mujahid, Herat province, Balkh province, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Amaq public relations agency, Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport, Syria, Border Security Force, BSF Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 01-22-2018 (01-21-2018, 10:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness. I don't remember a vote ever being held regarding intervention in Bosnia, or Iraq or Somalia, or Syria. The government never asks the citizenry for its permission first as it is supposed to as outlined under the constitution. 23-Jan-18 World View -- More than 100,000 Greeks hold mass protest over 'Macedonia' n - John J. Xenakis - 01-22-2018 *** 23-Jan-18 World View -- More than 100,000 Greeks hold mass protest over 'Macedonia' name change This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Greece and Macedonia negotiate a contentious name change to replace FYROM **** Hundreds of thousands of Greeks in Thessaloniki on Sunday protest any name change to the Republic of Macedonia that includes the word 'Macedonia' (Kathimerini) One of the most emotional issues in Greece and the Balkans is taking center stage over negotiations to change the name of the official Republic of Macedonia to one that is acceptable to Greece. The Kingdom of Macedon is an ancient name, dating back centuries BC, and is the birthplace, in 356 BC, of Alexander the Great. The Republic of Macedonia declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, but Greece objected to its use of that name, claiming that having that name would give the country a claim to Greece's own province of Macedonia. The country was admitted to the United Nations in 1993 under the name the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). It has also been admitted to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the name FYROM. The European Union and Nato also recognize only the name FYROM. However many countries, including Russia and the United States, also recognize the name Republic of Macedonia, or just Macedonia. Greece has repeatedly used its veto power to prevent the country Macedonia from joining either the EU or Nato under any name that contains the word "Macedonia." As this situation has been going on for 25 years, there is now a great deal of pressure on the two countries to come up with a compromise. The Greek government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras has indicated that it is willing to allow "Macedonia" to appear in the name, provided that it's modified or qualified in some way. There are five proposals on the table:
The last proposal references the capital city Skopje. The name Vardar refers to a river that rises in West Macedonia and then south into Greece, where it is called the Axios River. Tsipras will be meeting his counterpart, FYROM prime minister Zoran Zaev, on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss town of Davos, and both men indicate that they'd like to resolve the issue once and for all, if that's possible. Meta (Macedonia) and B92 (Belgrade) and RFERL and AP (18-Jan) **** **** Massive protests in Thessaloniki Greece threaten Tsipras government **** More than 100,000 Greeks rallied on Sunday in Thessaloniki (Salonica), the capital city of Greece's administrative region of Macedonia. They were protesting any name change to the country Macedonia that included the name "Macedonia." In particular, they objected to all five of the proposed compromise names listed above. A poll shows that over 68% of the Greek people oppose agreeing to any use of "Macedonia" in the new name. Politicians from the opposition party New Democracy are siding with the protesters. The Archbishop of Athens Ieronymos initially agreed with the protesters, but after a meeting with Tsipras said that the country now needs "unity" and "national solidarity" with whatever agreement is reached in Davos. In April of last year, I wrote an article on Macedonia, and I included a brief history of Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in Macedonia's history." I was astounded when this description resulted in an extremely vitriolic and long-running comment stream, with comments coming from all sides -- especially the Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians. In summary, Greek commenters said the following:
Macedonian comments said the following:
These comments became extremely acrimonious and went on for a long time. At one point I asked the participants whether there would be blood on the floor if they were all in the same room together. I didn't get an answer. All this indicates to me that the Balkans region, which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout history between the Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization, may well provide the start of the next major European war. Into that context, we now have this emerging issue of the name change for the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to something else. We'll have to see whether there's anything else that everyone can agree to. Kathimerini (Athens) and B92 (Belgrade) and Greek Reporter and Meta (Macedonia) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Macedonia, Balkans, Yugoslavia, Kingdom of Macedon, Alexander the Great, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM, Alexis Tsipras, Zoran Zaev, Vardar River, Axios River, Thessaloniki, Salonica, Archbishop Ieronymos Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 01-23-2018 (01-22-2018, 08:31 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(01-21-2018, 10:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(01-21-2018, 09:11 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Tell me, why when the Serbs waged war in Bosnia back in the 1990s and as the war developed they were finally ready to assault the Bosnian cities in particular, why was there suddenly the appearance a screen of American and European troops suddenly blocking them? Serbs had done nothing wrong to Americans and Western Europeans, so there was no reason for that screen of forces to be there. The motivations for placing that screen of troops by Western politicians was purely due to the selfishness of western baby boomers and the manifestation of that selfishness. Boomers Just don't get it, under constitutional democracy, this should have happened regarding intervention in bosnia. 1.) the Government requests intervention in Bosnia. 2.) a referendum is scheduled to vote on intervention in Bosnia. 3.) The referendum is held and their is mass vote on the question of intervention. 4.) The results of the referendum are read, if the vote was yes, we intervene, if the vote was no we don't intervene at all unless another referendum is held later and it's vote was yes. 5.) If a "no" vote occurred, the government says it will not do anything in Bosnia because the citizenry have not given the government consent to do so and under the US constitution the government can't make any decisions that are contrary to the will of the people because the government represents the people under US Law. 24-Jan-18 World View -- China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other coun - John J. Xenakis - 01-23-2018 *** 24-Jan-18 World View -- China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China's Mekong River dams criticized for affecting other countries' livelihoods **** Floating marketplace in Mekong delta in Vietnam Multiple dams and hydropower projects being built in China on the Lancang Jiang River, which becomes the Mekong River when it leaves China, are having a significant effect on the livelihoods and living conditions of millions of people along the Mekong River in downstream countries. The Mekong originates on China's Tibetan plateau and flows over 4,000 km through southern China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. China has already built six dams along the river, and 11 more are under construction, with 28 more dams planned in the future. These large dams upset the ecosystem and threaten the livelihoods for an estimated 60 million farmers and fishermen living in the lower Mekong basin, where it nurtures one of the world’s most fertile areas for agriculture and fishing. Thailand and Vietnam are among the world’s largest producers of food commodities like rice. Not only do China's dams affect the water available for irrigation, they disrupt the migration of fish and block the flow of silt downstream that sustains riverine environments. However, this goes beyond ecology. These dams give China control over the Mekong River, which means that China cause use them as leverage to control much of the economy of Southeast Asia. The dispute over the Mekong River is similar to the dispute over the South China Sea. In the South China Sea, China is using its massive military power to threaten its neighbors, to annex regions belonging to other nations, and to build military bases that were declared illegal by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea. So now a similar dynamic is occurring along the Mekong River. China has been building these dams and hydroelectric projects without concern for the five downstream nations. Furthermore, China controls water flow according to its own needs, even if it means starving or flooding downstream inhabitants. China's attitude towards its neighbors is not surprising. After all, China displaced millions of its own people to build the Three Gorges Dam, so China's leaders really couldn't care less about people in other countries. China's dams have been blamed for several droughts along the Mekong delta in recent years. China claims that those droughts were all caused by natural weather changes, but the perception remains that China is causing the droughts. Furthermore, China's dam building has negatively affected fishery stocks in the river. Once again, China claims it's not responsible, but when fishermen are unable to fish, they are going to blame China. China's plans don't stop there. China is using its control of the water as leverage to force downstream countries to allow it to clear small islands and land features along the entire length of the river, calling this "navigation channel improvement." This will permit commercial and military vessels weighing up to 500 metric tons to travel along the river from China to the South China Sea. In 1995, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam formed the Mekong River Commission (MRC) as a forum for managing changes to the river. China refused to join the MRC, to avoid being bound by its requirement that developments require consultations with the other members. Instead, China in 2015 formed a new organization of the four MRC nations plus Myanmar, the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC), which it controls. South China Morning Post and Foreign Policy and Jamestown and Cambodia Daily (17-Jan-2017) Related Articles
**** **** In policy shift, US sides with Indonesia in South China Sea over Natuna Sea **** As we reported in September, Indonesia announced that it would rename the part of the South China Sea within its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as the "North Natuna Sea," causing China to throw a temper tantrum. ( "10-Sep-17 World View -- China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters" ) The US has so far stayed completely out of this particular dispute, but on Tuesday US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, in a meeting in Jakarta with Indonesia's Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu, said the United States would help Indonesia play a central role in the region, and would help it to maintain maritime security in the "North Natuna Sea." This use of the phrase "North Natuna Sea" is being considered a US endorsement of Indonesia's position. It should be noted that the waters under discussion here are part of Indonesia's EEZ, but are far, far, far away from China. Most of China's claims have been labeled as invalid by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, but this particular claim by China is clearly completely delusional, as can be seen on any map. The Trump administration is becoming increasingly confrontational with China's illegal claims in the South China Sea. There are regular FONOPs (Freedom of navigation operations) in the South China Sea, where a US warship travels through international waters illegal claimed by China, causing China to throw more temper tantrums. The endorsement of Indonesia's claim to the "North Natuna Sea" is one more step on that path. UPI and South China Morning Post Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mekong River, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Lancang Jiang River, South China Sea, Three Gorges Dam, Indonesia, North Natuna Sea, Jim Mattis, Ryamizard Ryacudu, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, Mekong River Commission, MRC, Lancang-Mekong Cooperation, LMC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 25-Jan-18 World View -- Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition c - John J. Xenakis - 01-24-2018 *** 25-Jan-18 World View -- Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Egypt's presidential election becomes a farce as opposition candidates are forced out **** Outsized election poster of al-Sisi in Cairo (Reuters) Egypt's presidential election, to be held on March 26-28, is looking more and more like a farce, as opponents of the current president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, are being forced to withdraw, one after the other. It may be that al-Sisi will be the only person left on the ballot. Sami Anan, a retired army Chief of Staff and a former member of Egypt’s Supreme Council of Armed Forces, was arrested on Tuesday, two days after announcing that he would run for president. He was dragged from his car on Tuesday morning and taken before a military court. He has not been seen since. Anan was arrested on the charge of announcing that he would run for president. This was a violation of the law, according to authorities, because Anan was affiliated with the armed forces. He's also charged with inciting a rift between the Armed Forces and the Egyptian public. Officials said that he was "summoned for interrogation in front of specialized personnel" for his crimes. Needless to say, Anan's candidacy has been withdrawn. That's the way this election is going. The presidential election will take place on March 26-28, and al-Sisi, who was himself the former chief of Egypt's armed forces, recently announced that he will run for re-election. But magically, one after another, al-Sisi's potential opponents are being forced to withdraw. On November 29 of last year, Colonel Ahmed Konsowa announces his plans to run for president, but three days later he was arrested, and convicted of "expressing political opinions as a serving military officer." Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat is the nephew of the former Egyptian president Anwar al-Sadat, who was assassinated in October, 1981, by extremists who blamed him for signing a peace deal with Israel. Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat had planned to run for president, but dropped out last week because his campaign staff was being threatened. According to al-Sadat: <QUOTE>"The logic says the regime should allow two or three or four people to run against Sisi to make it look legitimate. But it seems like they don’t even care about how it looks anymore."<END QUOTE> A left-wing rights lawyer Khaled Ali said that he would run on November 6 of last year. He was arrested for making "an obscene gesture" outside a Cairo court. Several members of his campaign were arrested on various charges. Anan's arrest on Tuesday was apparently the last straw, as Ali withdrew on Wednesday. According to a supporter, <QUOTE>"[T]here was a widespread feeling that we won’t be given a chance to compete. Anan’s arrest in this rough manner added [to] the impression that this regime wants a referendum, not competitive elections. We wanted a true competition. We didn’t want to take part in a play or provide material for the regime to claim these are genuine elections."<END QUOTE> There's still one major contender opposing al-Sisi. Mortada Mansour, an MP more right-wing than al-Sisi, announced his bid on January 13, and has until January 29 to get 25,000 nomination signatures, with a minimum of 1,000 each from 15 of Egypt's 29 provinces. Mansour announced that his first act as president would be to ban access to Facebook. The Sadat, Ali and Anan campaigns say that they routinely experienced interference or intimidation. Al-Sisi's reelection seems assured, as dissent has been crushed, and all three were forced to withdraw, showing what a farce the election is becoming. Africa News and Guardian (London) and Telegraph (London) Related Articles
**** **** Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam **** Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi says that he does not want war with Ethiopia and Sudan, but tensions are rising nonetheless over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Ethiopia is constructing on the Blue Nile river. In a televised broadcast last week, al-Sisi said: <QUOTE>"We are not prepared to go to war against our brethren or anyone else for that matter. I am saying this as a clear message to our brothers in Sudan and Ethiopia. Egypt neither conspires nor meddles in anyone's internal affairs. We are determined to have good relations [with Sudan and Ethiopia]. Our region has seen enough the past few years."<END QUOTE> Nonetheless, one does not declare that he doesn't want to go to war unless he's actually thinking about going to war. Ethiopia's $5 billion GERD project is soon to be completed, and will be the largest hydroelectric dam project in Africa. Ethiopia says that the GERD will provide power to millions of people in desperate need of electric power, and it sees GERD as a means over overcoming poverty. However, it will also reduce the flow of water downstream to Egypt. Egypt depends on the Nile river to supply most of Egypt's drinking war, to irrigate the Nile Delta, and to generate half of the country's electricity through the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam. The GERD dispute is becoming a part of the larger regional dispute related to the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt. Turkey, which backs Qatar, has a relationship with Sudan and Somalia, while Ethiopia and Sudan have a strategic alliance. Egypt's and Eritrea's leaders met recently to discuss mutual interests. It seems unlikely that Egypt and Ethiopia will go to war, but the chances of war could increase as the GERD project nears completion. VOA and Al Jazeera and Egypt Independent Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Ethiopia, Sami Anan, Ahmed Konsowa, Anwar al-Sadat, Mohammed Anwar al-Sadat, Khaled Ali, Mortada Mansour, Blue Nile, Ethiopia, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, GERD, Aswan High Dam, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Sudan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - John J. Xenakis - 01-25-2018 *** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities **** A rare street protest in Beijing against demolitions of migrant homes and businesses (Getty) The mayor of China's capital city Beijing has announced that workers would demolish 15 square miles of homes used by low-paid migrant workers. Many migrants have lived in these homes for years or decades, but now the city is declaring the homes to be illegal structures. The migrants will be evicted and left homeless. Officials are not saying how many migrant workers would be evicted by the demolitions this year. However, in general terms, Beijing would like to reduce the population of Beijing by 15%, and this would fall most heavily on the estimated 3 million migrant workers living in Beijing, or 450,000. (Other reports estimate 8 million migrant workers in Beijing. The larger figure may include suburbs.) In December of last year, a demolition campaign evicted tens of thousands of migrant workers in just one month alone, so these figures seem to be credible. Some demolitions had been going on slowly for years, but when a shantytown fire on November 18 killed 19 people, the demolitions and evictions took on a shape that's being described a "vicious" and "cruel." People were given only few hours' notice before their homes were demolished, and they were forced into the sub-zero December temperatures. The demolitions included small businesses as well as homes, causing many migrants to lose their life savings as well as their source of income. Many migrants had been supporting their families by sending money back to them, but that source of support was cut off overnight. Chinese intellectuals have petitioned the government to halt the evictions, calling them a violation of human rights. Even some state media have criticized the campaign. According to Yi Fuxian, a China population expert, the government has called migrants a low-end population - basically implying that they're inferior quality human beings. "China didn't just say this. They actually wrote it into government documents. This is absurd," says Yi. Reuters and Shanghaiist (24-Nov) and BBC and NPR (4-Dec-2017) Related Articles
**** **** Migrant workers built modern China, and are now being discarded **** Whenever a large number of foreign migrants travel from one region to another, the reactions of the natives generally range from marginalization to open hostility to violence, sometimes ending in deportation. In Beijing, the migrants are not foreigners. They're ordinary Chinese from farms and rural areas who come to the city to improve themselves, or to earn money to send back to their families. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), there are an estimated 282 million rural migrant workers in China, making up more than one third of the entire working population of 807 million. Migrants work are almost always marginalized and work in low-paid jobs. They're subject to various kinds of abuse, including forced overtime and non-payment of salaries. The vast majority of rural migrant workers are still employed in low-paid jobs in manufacturing, construction and services. According to NBS figures, the employment by sector is as follows:
The millions of migrants living in Beijing, often for decades, were the laborers who built Beijing into the huge metropolis that it is today. Now their work is done, and they're being left cold, broke and homeless. Although news stories have focused mainly on Beijing, thanks to the shantytown fire on November 18, we're apparently seeing a major change in Chinese policy that affects all large cities, and possibly medium sized cities as well. The likely causes of this change of policy are as follows:
This kind of major demographic policy change can only put strain on China's economy, which is already running on a huge debt bubble and a huge real estate bubble. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this split could be significant as the first signs of a new internal rebellion, for which China is overdue. China's history is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent of which were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49). The leaders of China's Communist Party (CCP) are well aware of this history, and they're aware that a new internal rebellion is now due, and probably overdue. China used to publish the number of "mass incidents" occurring in the country. The number of "mass incidents" of unrest recorded by the Chinese government grew from 8,700 in 1993 to about 90,000 in 2010, according to several government-backed studies. The government stopped publishing the figures in 2010, but it's reasonable to believe that the number of mass incidents per year is well into the hundreds of thousands. If even just one of these mass incidents occurred in America or Europe, it would be international news, so the fact that hundreds of such mass incidents occur in China EVERY DAY indicates how socially unstable China is. So you already have an economy running on a huge debt bubble, with hundreds of thousands of mass incidents per year, and with millions of marginalized migrants scheduled to lose their homes and their jobs, when the country is well into a generational Crisis era. China's next, massive, historic internal rebellion is overdue, and this new policy could end up being one of the triggers. China Labor Bulletin (Hong Kong) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and The Diplomat (26-Jul-2017) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Beijing, migrants, Yi Fuxian, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-Jan-18 World View -- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands t - John J. Xenakis - 01-26-2018 *** 27-Jan-18 World View -- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement **** Djenna Mosque in Timbuktu, Mali, built around 1300, was under attack by Tuareg rebellion A spate of jihadist terror attacks in central Mali on Thursday left nearly forty people dead. At least 26 people were killed in a landmine explosion that was targeting the UN's peacekeeping mission in Mali. The peacekeeping mission is named MINUSMA, or the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission. There were two further attacks, also on Thursday in central Mali, killing seven jihadists and two soldiers. The irony is that, whether by accident or on purpose, the jihadist attacks occurred just after the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a statement criticizing the government and several ethnic groups in Mali for not implementing a 2015 peace agreement. The Security Council threatened additional sanctions against officials in Mali if the terms of the peace deal haven't been implemented by the end of March. Once again, watching a UNSC "peace process" in action, one has the feeling that one is watching a farce. The 2015 peace agreement was signed by the government and by several ethnic and rebel groups who are mostly cooperating with the government. But Mali is a huge country and the agreement does not cover all of it, and of course the jihadists that conducted Thursday's attacks were not party to the agreement at all. So it's hard to see how the agreement even makes any sense. Apparently the thought behind the agreement is that government and these rebel groups would work together to defeat the jihadists, and so bring peace to the land. If they really wanted to do that, then they wouldn't need a peace agreement, and anyway, Mali is too large a country to be governable. The UN Security Council statement is actually quite interesting, since it lists all the things that the parties have to do to bring peace to Mali. Here are some excerpts: <QUOTE>"The members of the Security Council expressed a shared sense of impatience regarding the persistent delays in the full implementation of key provisions of the Agreement. They underscored the pressing need to deliver tangible and visible peace dividends to the population in the north and other parts of Mali. ... The members of the Security Council stressed in this context the importance of taking immediate and concrete action to fully and expeditiously deliver on key provisions of the Agreement, in particular through: progress in the decentralization process, including through the holding of appropriate consultations between the parties aimed at reviewing and strengthening consensus on existing legislation and through the adoption of legislation establishing a regional territorial police force; the operationalization of the interim administrations in the north of Mali, including through the allocation of the necessary human, technical and financial resources to perform their missions; progress in the cantonment and disarmament, demobilization and reintegration processes, including through the definition of adequate eligibility criteria and reintegration quotas and through the submission of finalized lists of candidates, as well as progress in the security sector reform, with a view to the progressive redeployment of the reconstituted armed and security forces in Mali; the establishment of the Operational Coordination Mechanism in Kidal and Timbuktu; and ensuring full and equal participation of women."<END QUOTE> That's an interesting list of tasks. It's a shame that none of them has much to do with ending jihadist attacks or bringing peace. And notice the last task "and ensuring full and equal participation of women." This shows what a farce this is. Instead of worrying about stopping jihadist attacks, they're worried that the security forces will be half men and half women. You'd think that this was a parody dreamed up by people who want to mock and ridicule the United Nations, but no, this is the real thing. Radio France Internationale (RFI) and AP and United Nations **** **** War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era **** The downfall of Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 created a domino effect that led to a rebellion in northern Mali by the Tuaregs, an ethnic groups spread across northern Africa's Sahel region between Libya and Mali. The domino effect continued when the chaos of the Tuareg rebellion led to an al-Qaeda linked jihadist incursion. The jihadists were briefly chased out by France's Operation Serval, but they returned, and led to other rebel and jihadist groups to enter the region. There were numerous international efforts, mainly led by France, to eject the rebel and jihadist groups. The most ambitious was Operation Barkhane, an offensive deployed in 2014 in five countries, which sought to fight jihadists in five countries -- Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. The United Nations peacekeeping effort, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission (MINUSMA), was established on April 25, 2013. It was just a week ago that we reported that Britain agreed to send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport heavy lift helicopters to provide logistical support to France's Operation Barkhane, along with 50-60 support staff. MINUSMA has been pretty much a failure, and has come under increasing criticism. According to a United Nations analysis released earlier this week, MINUSMA is being reassessed. Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, says the following: <QUOTE>"Five years after the Mission’s establishment and two years and a half after the signature of the peace agreement, we believe the time has come to reassess the assumptions that underpin MINUSMA’s presence, review its key mandated tasks against achievements on the ground and reexamine the Mission’s layout through a comprehensive strategic review."<END QUOTE> Of course, this political gobbledygook really says nothing, but it does express increasing anxiety over what's taking place. Now, that statement was released before Thursday's attack targeting the MINUSMA peacekeepers themselves. In general, jihadists are increasingly targeting UN peacekeepers, and this is no exception. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this appears to be a textbook case of what happens when a country is about to enter a generational Crisis era. Mali's last generational crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion that climaxed in 1963. After a crisis civil war reaches a climax and is settled, the traumatized survivors reach an agreement to make sure that nothing like it ever happens again. But as younger generations grow up after the war, low-level violence begins and increases. As the war survivors die off, this violence becomes more violent and occurs more often, although the war survivors prevent it from tipping into full-scale war. Based on examination of hundreds of examples in all places and times in history, Generational Dynamics has found that a turning point is reached 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war, which is the time when the country enters a new generational Crisis era ("fourth turning"). That seems to be the point in time when the generations of war survivors disappear (retire or die) so completely that they're unable to prevent another war, and so a new crisis war can begin in any of the years that follow. So 2018 is the 55th year after the end of the 1963 Tuareg Rebellion. History has shown that's a little too early for full-scale war to occur. But as each year passes, there are fewer and fewer war survivors around, and there are more and more kids in the younger generations with a thirst for war. This is what we're seeing now. The United Nations Security Council made a 2015 peace agreement with representatives of the old geezers in the war survivor generation. The agreement is nice to have, but it's completely irrelevant to the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic younger generations. So there is zero probability that the 2015 agreement will be implemented, and there is zero probability that MINUSMA or the United Nations will have any success whatsoever in quelling the violence in Mali, which is only going to increase. IRIN News and United Nations and 2015 Mali Peace Agreement and BBC (20-Aug-2017) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Tuareg, Timbuktu, Djenna Mosque, Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, France, Operation Serval, Operation Barkhane, Jean-Pierre Lacroix Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-Jan-18 World View -- New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 - John J. Xenakis - 01-27-2018 *** 28-Jan-18 World View -- New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** New massive Taliban attack in Kabul Afghanistan kills 95 **** A distant view of the explosion in Kabul on Saturday (Khaama Press) Exactly one week after a spectacular 16 hour siege by the Taliban of the Intercontinental Hotel in Afghanistan's capital city Kabul, killing dozens, a new suicide bomber struck on Saturday. The new attack was a massive bombing by a suicide attacker in an ambulance killed at least 95 people and wounded 158, almost all innocent civilians. The ambulance got through security checkpoints by claiming that he was carrying a person to a hospital. When one checkpoint officer got suspicious, the driver blew up the ambulance, which was full of explosives. The Taliban have not yet claimed responsibility for this attack because of the the bad PR they get when they kill innocent civilians. It's suspected that the ambulance driver was trying to reach the Interior Ministry building in order to kill government officials. Both last week's attack and this one occurred in areas that are supposed to be under heavy security. Government officials are coming under heavy public criticism for being unable to prevent these attacks. Tolo News (Kabul) and Khaama Press (Kabul) **** **** Trump doubles down on war on Taliban in Afghanistan **** President Donald Trump issued a statement condemning Saturday's terror attack: <QUOTE>"I condemn the despicable car bombing attack in Kabul today that has left scores of innocent civilians dead and hundreds injured. This murderous attack renews our resolve and that of our Afghan partners. The Taliban's cruelty will not prevail. The United States is committed to a secure Afghanistan that is free from terrorists who would target Americans, our allies, and anyone who does not share their wicked ideology. Now, all countries should take decisive action against the Taliban and the terrorist infrastructure that supports them."<END QUOTE> The idea of defeating the Taliban is fantasy, for reasons I've reported many times in the past. Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge. This rising generation of young terrorist Pashtuns cannot be defeated by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance. What Trump calls "the Taliban's cruelty" is actually their revenge for the atrocities that were committed against their parents over 20 years ago. This is not going to end because of some piece of paper drawn up by government ministers in Kabul, and anyone who things so is living in a world of total fantasy. In August of last year, Trump gave an Afghanistan strategy speech announcing that some 4,000 more American troops would be sent to Afghanistan, in order to achieve "victory." As I described at the time, Trump promised victory by redefining "victory": <QUOTE>"Our troops will fight to win. We will fight to win. From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge."<END QUOTE> When you think about it, this definition of "victory" has already been almost completely achieved. Going down the list, we attack our enemies, ISIS has been defeated in Syria and Iraq, al-Qaeda has been at least partially crushed, the Taliban are not taking over Afghanistan, and there haven't been any mass terror attacks against America. But this definition of "victory" doesn't say anything about bringing peace to Afghanistan, nor does it promise an end to terror suicide bomber attacks in Kabul. As far as Trump's definition of victory in Afghanistan is concerned, it's pretty much already been achieved, despite Saturday's bombing. As I've written in the past, Trump appears to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Fox News and India Today and CBS News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe [b]*** 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in - John J. Xenakis - 01-28-2018 *** 29-Jan-18 World View -- Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Clashes erupt between Saudi and UAE backed forces in South Yemen's port of Aden **** Map of Yemen showing regions held by Houthis and allies, Government forces and allies, and al-Qaeda presence (al-Jazeera) Dozens of people were killed or wounded on Sunday in the port city of Aden on the southern coast of Yemen, as the result of clashes between the forces of the official government of Yemen, backed by Saudi Arabia, versus the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist faction backed by United Arab Emirates (UAE), and claiming Aden as the capital city of Southern Yemen. A week ago, Yemen was in the midst of a proxy war between two different governments backed by two different foreign countries. But now, at this moment, Yemen's proxy war now has three different three different governments, backed by three different foreign countries:
In addition, there's one more major non-government force in Yemen, and that's Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In recent years, AQAP's leadership has turned from harshly ideological Sharia policies that alienated the tribal populace into pragmatists that are making allies of tribal leaders, by providing security, protection, and a measure of stability. Since Saudi Arabia and UAE are supposed to be allies, this development is being called a "war within a war." There have been reports that officials in both Saudi Arabia and UAE are ordering their militaries to stop shooting in Aden, and to resolve the issues. If the shooting does not stop, then it will be AQAP that gains in the south, and the Houthis that will gain in the north. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and The National (UAE) and Jamestown **** **** Brief generational history of South Yemen **** Because of its location, the port city of Aden has been strategically important for centuries. In 1839, Britain captured the port of Aden and southern Yemen from the Ottomans, and was made part of British India. Britain ruled Aden and southern Yemen, consisting of 24 tribal states (sultanates, emirates and sheikdoms), until the 1960s. Yemen's last generational crisis war was the Yemen Civil war, which began in 1962, and was largely a proxy war involving forces from Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Britain, the United States, and (pre-revolutionary) Iran. The Yemen Civil War ended in 1968, and in the diplomacy that followed, in February 1970 Yemen was split into the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, North Yemen) allied with Saudi Arabia, and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY, South Yemen), a Marxist communist country allied with Russia. South Yemen was the Arab world's only communist state so far. In 1990, at the end of the generational Recovery era, the two countries were unified into a single country, Yemen, in an agreement designed to eliminate all the tensions between the two countries. In many ways, this was a marriage of convenience, since relations remained tense, but it put Ali Abdullah Saleh into a clear position of leadership. There was an attempt at secession by southern secessionists in 1994, but it was put down quickly, leading to the entrenchment of Saleh's northern-based regime. Saleh governed Yemen most of the time since then, until he was killed in December, 2017. Saleh was the country's president until 2011, when he was ousted as an outcome of the "Arab Spring" that affected countries throughout the region. Saleh was forced to turn the office of president over to his vice president, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi. Saleh then formed a "marriage of convenience" with the Iran-back Shia Zaydi Houthis in northwest Yemen. On September 21, 2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa from Hadi's forces. Hadi was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia for two years. From the point of view of the international community, Hadi is still president of Yemen. Since 2015, the war in Yemen was largely a proxy war between Iran versus a Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition. In November 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a land, air and sea blockade on Yemen, giving as a reason to prevent the Houthis from importing more of Iran's weapons systems. This blockade was a humanitarian disaster for Yemen. Yemen is already one of the poorest countries in the world, and because of the proxy war, mass starvation and disease have been spreading across the country. Aid from NGOs was only partially relieving the situation, but with the Saudi blockade, even that aid was cut off. The blockade was apparently too much for Saleh. Early in December he announced that he was separating from the Houthis, and offered to mediate a ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Three days later, the Houthis had him ambushed and killed. The death of Saleh fragmented tribal opposition to the Houthis in North Yemen, giving the Houthis more substantial control over the north. Now the UAE is backing the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), indicating that the coalition fighting the Houthis is also fragmenting. In addition to making it even harder for NGOs to provide aid, to help prevent massive starvation and cholera, this "war within a war" will help AQAP gain further control through alliances with other tribes. Writing anything about Yemen, you can't help but feel sorry for this poor country. Because of the country's strategic location, everyone wants a piece of it, and they're willing to fight proxy wars to get a piece. It's only the people suffering endless misery and poverty, as helpless pawns subject to constant bombings, starvation and cholera. It reminds one of the old African proverb: When elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers. History.com and Global Security and Harvard - History of Yemen Civil War - 1962-68 (PDF) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Aden, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Southern Transitional Council, STC, Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, Yemen Civil War, Russia, Egypt, Britain, Yemen Arab Republic, YAR, North Yemen, People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, PDRY, South Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Ahmed bin Dagher Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-Jan-18 World View -- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea - John J. Xenakis - 01-29-2018 *** 30-Jan-18 World View -- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea **** The Korean women's hockey team is planned to include players from both countries (AP) Mainstream journalists, analysts and economists are generally incapable of grasping even the simplest generational concepts, so on the extremely rare occasion when a major publication publishes an actual generational analysis it's worth noting. An article in the NY Times by Choe Sang-Hunjan titled "Olympic Dreams of a United Korea? Many in South Say, ‘No, Thanks’" gives a generational analysis of South Korea as the Winter Olympics games approach, and the changing attitudes to reunification of different South Korean generations. The article quotes surveys that show a big gap in attitudes between younger and older South Koreans:
The article quotes a former South Korean foreign minister: "I am taken aback. Young people seem to think of North Korea as strangers who barge into their party bringing with them nothing but empty spoons." The current left-wing South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, has long supported unification, driven by his personal desire to see his birthplace in the North. According to the article: <QUOTE>"Key members of Mr. Moon’s presidential office and governing party are progressives in their 50s, who went to college in the 1980s. Then, campuses were rife with anti-American activism, partly driven by resentment over the division of the Korean Peninsula after World War II. Students defied the authorities by sending a “unification envoy” to the World Festival of Youth and Students, alternative games that North Korea held in Pyongyang in 1989 to counter the previous year’s Summer Olympics in Seoul. Progressives in that era believed in a peaceful process of reunification, built on the expansion of economic and social exchanges. Today, many of that generation see the North’s nuclear weapons program as a desperate attempt to protect itself from the United States and the South, with which it is still technically at war."<END QUOTE> These paragraphs need a bit of interpretation. As I'll explain in detail below, what the article calls 1980s "progressives" are known as the "386 Generation" of the 1980s -- affluent, highly pro-Leninist-Marxist and highly anti-American, since they had no memory of their parents' extreme poverty and destitution, nor of how an American military intervention saved South Korea from the North in 1950. However it is true, as the article points out, that the 386er generation strongly believed that the communist government of North Korea was superior to Western democracies, and that the South and the North could be unified peacefully if only the South could adopt that same kind of government. Events since then, especially "the fiasco of the 386 generation" (described below), and North Korea's unstoppable nuclear missile development, have forced the 386ers to abandon those extreme radical views, and look for opportunities for peaceful negotiations. The 2018 Winter Olympics games are the best opportunity so far. NY Times (or Open version) **** **** North Korea cancels joint cultural event because of 'insulting' media reports **** On Monday, North Korea abruptly canceled a joint cultural event to be held on February 4 in the North Korean territory of Mount Kumgang. The plan had been for skiers from both sides to train in North Korea's Masikryong Ski Resort. The North blamed the South Korean media for encouraging “insulting” public sentiment regarding the North. There were no specifics given, but South Korea has a free press, and there has been a lot of criticism of North Korea. There have also been individual protests, including burning a picture of North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un, which would be a capital offense if done in North Korea. However, it's not known whether those were the problem. It's suspected that the North is angry about media coverage of North Korean plans to stage a large military parade in Pyongyang on February 8, just before the start of the Olympics. Some media reports say that some 50,000 North Korean soldiers will march in the parade, which will feature the latest in North Korean weapons, including ballistic missiles. These reports may be the reason why they canceled the cultural event. The South Korea's Unification Ministry issued a statement: <QUOTE>"It is very regrettable that an event agreed by the South and the North will not be held due to North Korea's unilateral notification (decision). What has been agreed must be implemented under the spirit of mutual respect and understanding as the South and the North have only taken a hard-earned first step toward improving the South-North relationship."<END QUOTE> In another development, South Korea's Defense Minister Song Young-moo said: <QUOTE>"The North Korean regime will probably be removed from the map if it uses developed nuclear weapons against South Korea or the United States. It's an anachronistic idea that North Korea will use nuclear weapons for the unification (of the two Koreas)."<END QUOTE> It's certain that there will continue to be some hostile media coverage, and it's certain that there will be anti-North protesters before and during the games. This media coverage will be interpreted by the North as threatening their new strategy of using the Olympics to drive a wedge between South Korea and the US. Whether they become so infuriated that they start canceling other events, or even their entire participation in the games, remains to be seen. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and UPI and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Yonhap News (Seoul) **** **** Brief generational history of South Korea since World War II **** In an article that I wrote in 2007 ( "South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal" ), I included a brief generational history of South Korea. The following is an update. Korea is one of the oldest nations on earth, with some 4000 years of history. Here we can only give a brief summary of its extremely tumultuous history in the 1900s:
That 2007 article was written in response to conciliatory policy changes by the George Bush administration, resulting in euphoria on the part of South Koreans. In that article, I quoted a BBC correspondent, Charles Scanlon in Seoul, who described the euphoria as unrealistic: <QUOTE>"We are seeing something approaching euphoria, from at least among some members of the South Korean government, in reaction to this agreement that was signed in Beijing. The Unification Minister who's responsible for relations with the North said this could be a turning point in the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean peninsula. And certainly the South Koreans do feel to some extent vindicated by what has been in effect a major change in U.S. policy toward North Korea. They've been urging a more conciliatory approach from the very beginning, and they're certainly very relieved that the Americans now do seem serious about getting a negotiated settlement with the North Koreans, and they've softened some of their pressure tactics. The president, Roh Moo-hyun, said he's expecting a very easy implementation of this accord. I think there we are seeing really wishful thinking on the President's part, because after all any agreement with the North Koreans is not going to come easy."<END QUOTE> I don't know whether the current president Moon Jae-in personally feels euphoria about the new Winter Olympics détente, but as we've described, the young generation of South Koreans feel little but anger. The controversy has sent South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s overall approval rating below 60% for the first time since he took office in May last year, dropping more than 6 percentage points in one week. Korea Times (5-Feb-2008) and Meng News (3-Jun-2014) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, NY Times, Choe Sang-Hunjan, South Korea, North Korea, Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un, 386 Generation, Mount Kumgang, Song Young-moo, April 19 Revolution, Park Chung-hee, Kwangju massacre, Gwangju massacre, Kim Dae-jung, Sunshine Policy, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye, Cheonan warship, Yeonpyeong Island, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Charles Scanlon Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Jan-18 World View -- Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as La - John J. Xenakis - 01-30-2018 *** 31-Jan-18 World View -- Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled **** Civil defense team looks for survivors after al-Assad regime airstrike in Idlib. (Anadolu) Russia's president Vladimir Putin wanted to be the world-renowned diplomat that brought peace to Syria. So last year he blew off the UN sponsored peace talks led by Staffan de Mistura, and he joined with Iran and Turkey to form his own "peace talks" process, held in Astana, Kazakhstan. And they came up with a peace plan. Of course, the peace plan was rejected by the parties actually fighting in Syria -- the Syrian regime led by the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, and "moderate" anti-Assad opposition in Syria, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, and the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). All of those four groups rejected the peace plan, so it was ridiculous for Putin or anyone else to believe that the peace plan would work. And it didn't. They came up with four "de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." The fighting slowed down a little in these four zones for a little while, but today the whole agreement is in shambles, as the fighting is in full force. It is a total failure by Vladimir Putin. There was a meeting of Putin's peace plan group in Sochi on Tuesday that Putin was calling the "Syrian National Dialogue Congress." The meeting was supposed to take two days, but it was called off after one day, when Syrian opposition representatives heckled Putin's right-hand man, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and then walked out. There was an additional drama at the Sochi airport. Some opposition members arrived at the airport, but refused to go to the conference hall because they saw pictures of Syrian flags there. They decided that the fix was in. Opposition members point out that Bashar al-Assad's army is still using barrel bombs and chlorine gas on civilians, is targeting hospitals and schools, is preventing food and medicine from reaching civilians, has ignored ceasefires, and has broken every promise to stop doing these things. So opposition members know that Russia and al-Assad are just going to screw them again, so why bother with this so-called "peace conference"? Putin announced in December that the Syrian war was over, and that Russia's troops will be returned to Russia. Less than two months later, it's clear that Putin's announcement was garbage. Reuters and CNN and Tass (Moscow) **** **** Russia sidelines the failed United Nations Syria peace process **** Russia's "peace process" has almost completely eclipsed the UN-sponsored "peace process," lead by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura. I've written about any number of Syria peace plans over the years. Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan' which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children with impunity. After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014, after it became clear that al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni civilians. Now, the current UN envoy is Staffan de Mistura, who goes around all the time saying, "This will not be tolerated," but who accomplishes nothing except, again, to provide cover for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities. So Vladimir Putin took over the peace process business. The UN processes held out a fig leaf of being impartial, but Putin was clearly and unequivocally in favor of Bashar al-Assad, and committed to supporting his genocide and war crimes, while claiming to be promoting peace. So to complete the farcical circle, de Mistura attended the Russian conference in Sochi under the condition that Russia promised that the United Nations would be responsible for drafting a constitution and the mediation process. Putin apparently agreed, and now the mantle of failure will pass from Russia back to the United Nations. Guardian and Russia Today **** **** War continues in full force, with Syria and Turkey killing 'terrorists' **** If you want to kill someone in Syria, it's perfectly OK as long you call him or her a "terrorist." So Turkey is committed to killing all the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militias in Syria, calling the "terrorists." Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very critical of the US for arming and supporting the YPG, whom the US army found to be essential in fighting and defeating ISIS in Raqqa. Turkey was supposed to have defeated the YPG in Afrin by now, but the battle is taking longer than they expected. Assuming that they ever defeat the YPG in Afrin, the plan is to proceed further east to Manbij, where they will apparently meet American forces who are defending the YPG. Meanwhile, the regime of the Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian bombers, is killing his own "terrorists," namely innocent Sunni women and children in two "de-confliction" or "ceasefire zones," Eastern Ghouta and Idlib. Al-Assad continues to commit war crimes, in cooperation with Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. Ironically, al-Assad is being helped by Erdogan because Turkey used to be a protector of the civilians in Idlib, but is now distracted by the fight against the YPG in Afrin. So, while Erdogan is killing the terrorists in Afrin, al-Assad is killing the terrorists in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib. There is a fantasy, apparently widespread, that one way or another the Syria war will end at some point soon, and then Syria will return to "normal," just as it was before al-Assad started the war by trying to exterminate peaceful protesters in 2011. And in fact, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the war should have (and would have) fizzled out within a year or two. But now you have multiple countries -- Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, the US, Israel and others -- and you have multiple factions within Syria -- YPG, HTS, ISIS -- all wanting a piece of Iraq, or at least wanting to make sure that some other faction doesn't get a piece. Each faction believes that the war will end soon, but each faction expects a different outcome. As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. The mess and chaos in Syria is just a few steps away from a broader war. AP and TRT World (Ankara, 18-Jan) and Middle East Monitor (24-Jan) and Middle East Eye (23-Jan) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Sochi, Sergei Lavrov, Syrian National Dialogue Congress, Staffan de Mistura, Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones, Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous, Sarin gas People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghani - John J. Xenakis - 01-31-2018 *** 1-Feb-18 World View -- New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** New reports show that Taliban are gaining territory in Afghanistan **** Taliban presence in Afghanistan districts (BBC) A new study by the BBC, based on interviews with 1200 people across Afghanistan, finds that the Taliban are in full control of 4% of Afghanistan's districts, and have an active and open physical presence in a further 66%, significantly higher than previous estimates of Taliban strength. That means that only about 30% of the districts are still controlled by the Afghan government. The interviews were conducted late in 2017. The extent to which the Taliban partially or fully control districts of Afghanistan has been one of the most useful statistics used by analysts and politicians for gauging the success of the Nato coalition in defeating the Taliban. However, there are indications that the US military is trying to suppress this kind of information. The Quarterly Report To The United States Congress issued by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) was released on Tuesday. According to the report, SIGAR has been specifically instructed by the US military not to release this kind of information any more, even though it's unclassified. According to the report: <QUOTE>"Aside from that, the number of districts controlled or influenced by the Afghan government had been one of the last remaining publicly available indicators for members of Congress -- many of whose staff do not have access to the classified annexes to SIGAR reports -- and for the American public of how the 16-year long U.S. effort to secure Afghanistan is faring. Historically, the number of districts controlled or influenced by the government has been falling since SIGAR began reporting on it, while the number controlled or influenced by the insurgents has been rising -- a fact that should cause even more concern about its disappearance from public disclosure and discussion."<END QUOTE> A spokesman in Kabul, representing the US-led Nato coalition, denied both reports, saying that the Taliban contested or controlled only 44% of the Afghan districts, and that SIGAR had not been instructed to withhold unclassified data. Whatever the actual figure is, no one as far as I know questions the fact that the Taliban have been gaining territory and the Afghan government has been losing territory, ever since most foreign troops left the country in 2014. And this trend is going to continue. BBC and Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and Reuters **** **** Losing to Taliban has been predicted for years by generational analysis **** As I've been writing for years, a generational analysis there is no chance at all that the Taliban will be defeated in Afghanistan. Journalists, analysts and politicians are unable to grasp even the simplest generational analysis. Nonetheless, it's worthwhile summarizing what I've described in the past. Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge. This growing generation of young vengeful Pashtuns cannot be defeated by any conventional or unconventional army. They're capable of forming cells, living off the land, and conducting terror attacks at any time, targeting the government and the ethnic groups in the Northern Alliance. Afghanistan's capital city Kabul has been targeted in just the last two weeks by a series of massive terrorist attacks, killing hundreds of people. Furthermore, these attacks have been inside the most well-protected areas of Kabul, indicating that the Taliban terrorists have had help from the inside -- undoubtedly provided by other Pashtun youths. The fact that the Taliban are gaining more and more territory each year is just a reflection of the fact that more and more youngsters in the Pashtun generation are coming of age, and are willing to avenge what they consider to be the atrocities committed against their parents' generation. There's no way to stop this. This generation is going to continue growing, while foreign forces increasingly tire of fighting a war that most Westerners don't even care about. However, as I've written in the past, the Nato alliance and the US administration appear to have a larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. France 24 Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Nato, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR, Pashtuns, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - pbrower2a - 02-01-2018 (01-25-2018, 11:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migrant homes in cities I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start, capitalists need veritable armies of day laborers to do the hard, dirty, dangerous work of building the basic infrastructure. So it was with laying railroad track, building structures, and digging ditches. The workers usually end up in temporary housing, the housing typically jerry-built with poor sanitation. Vice flourishes. But once the early boom ends, the day laborers are no longer necessary. Maybe they move on. More troubling, they might want to stay and take a piece of the action as regular employees, skilled workers, or as small-scale entrepreneurs. Many do not make the transition, and the powers-that-be want such people out. The technology may be different, but the social pressures are much the same. The day laborers are the most genuine proletariat in the Marxist sense. They see capitalism at its worst and get the least out of it. Of course they want better. But will they get it? RE: 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - John J. Xenakis - 02-01-2018 (02-01-2018, 12:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start, So what would be an example of a capitalist society where the laborers built a city, and then the government came in and evicted 10% of the population and threw them out into the streets in a period of a few months? Or is your point that you want to claim that China is in "early capitalism"? RE: 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - pbrower2a - 02-01-2018 (02-01-2018, 02:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(02-01-2018, 12:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I see an old pattern from early capitalism: at the start, It is treating workers much as early capitalism did. 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct a - John J. Xenakis - 02-01-2018 *** 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct anti-hijab protests This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Arrested Iran reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticizes Supreme Leader Khamenei **** Mehdi Karroubi, opposition leader, surrounded by supporters on June 17, 2009 (Reuters) In a move that may not have been good for his continued survival, 80 year old Iranian reformist Mahdi Karroubi harshly criticized the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei in a letter published on his political party's web site. The criticism comes just one month after nationwide street protests that began as demonstrations against soaring food prices, but then grew into much more serious protests about government corruption among the political élite. It's widely believed that when Iranian sanctions were lifted after the nuclear deal was signed, and Iran received billions of dollars as a result, that money went to élite clerical institutions, at the same time that a banking crisis has caused millions of Iranians to lose their life savings. As usual, Khamenei blamed the United States, Israel and other "foreign enemies" for the nationwide street protests. At least 25 people were killed in the protests, and hundreds of peaceful protesters were jailed. Mehdi Karroubi has been under house arrest for seven years for supporting peaceful protesters during the 2009 election, when Iran's security forces overreacted and there was blood running in the streets. Karroubi's letter to Khamenei was a reaction to last month's street protests: <QUOTE>"I urge you, before it is too late, to open the way to structural reforms of the system. ... The system is going downhill to such an extent that it feels endangered by a few thousand people demonstrating. Instead of repeating accusations of links with the enemy and instead of harsh confrontation, listen to them. ... More than 50 percent of the country’s wealth is in the hands of state bodies over which there is no supervision... Poverty and unemployment are plaguing the country. More than 10 million Iranians, among 80 million, now live in absolute poverty. Under such conditions, it is natural that the lower classes, who were the grassroot supporters of the Islamic Revolution, will turn into a gunpowder barrel."<END QUOTE> Karroubi also criticized Khamenei for letting the Revolutionary Guards take a commanding role in the economy as this "has tarnished the reputation of this revolutionary body and drowned it in massive corruption." Radio Farda (RFERL) and AP and Reuters **** **** Iran's 'Girls of Revolution Street' tear off their hijabs and headscarves **** From 2007: An obvious criminal at large on the streets of Tehran (France 24) Iran is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of the bloody, vicious Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988, just as America was in a generational Awakening era in the 1960s, one generation past the end of World War II. Awakening eras are characterized by generation conflicts between the generations of traumatized survivors of the war versus the generation that grew up after the war (the Boomers in America's case). There are actually many similarity between America in the 1960s and Iran today. In both cases there were protests by college students against foreign wars, poverty and the economy. One particular feature of America in the 1960s was the "Women's Lib" movement, where cute, attractive college girls paraded around demanding to be treated the same as men, and put on big shows of burning their bras to make the point that there was no difference between the sexes. Iran's Awakening era has its own Women's Lib movement. It started on December 27, just as nationwide street protests were starting, when an unidentified woman climbed on top of an electricity box on one of Tehran’s busiest streets, Enqelab (Revolution) Avenue, removed her head scarf, and began waving it in the air. A video clip of the woman, later identified as Vida Movahed, a 31-year-old mother, quickly went viral, and that was the beginning of "Girls Of Revolution Street." Now there is a movement for women to take off their headscarves and wave them in the air in protest of compulsory headscarves and hijabs. This is anathema to the hardline geezers, who consider a girl without a headscarf to be almost as bad as an infidel. In 2007, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president at the time, ordered police in Tehran to swoop down on women with loose headscarves and arrest them. In some cases, they were simply warned. but in other cases they would be piled into a bus and taken to the police station for "questioning." Every generational Awakening era has a climax. America's Awakening era climaxed with the resignation of president Richard Nixon in 1974. Iran's Awakening era will climax with some sort of regime change that will replace the Khamenei and the other hardline geezers that survived the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and are still running the country with a new, younger generation of leaders. And since young people in Iran today tend to be pro-American and pro-Western, and have no desire to push Israel into the sea, expect Iran to become an American ally once the Awakening era climax takes place. Radio Farda (RFERL) and CNN Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei Mehdi Karroubi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Great Islamic Revolution, Girls Of Revolution Street, Vida Movahed Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |