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RE: 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - John J. Xenakis - 02-02-2018

(02-01-2018, 02:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > So what would be an example of a capitalist society where the
> laborers built a city, and then the government came in and evicted
> 10% of the population and threw them out into the streets in a
> period of a few months?

> Or is your point that you want to claim that China is in "early
> capitalism"?

(02-01-2018, 05:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It is treating workers much as early capitalism did.

The problem is that I don't understand what you mean by "early
capitalism." Capitalism doesn't really exist, except as the absence
of something else, in the same sense that cold doesn't exist except as
the absence of heat.

So "capitalism" is the default, and has been for millennia, and a lot
of capitalist societies are pretty horrific. For example, Syria today
is a capitalist society, even though Bashar al-Assad uses horrific
"industrial strength" torture that's sickened everyone, attacks women
and children in schools, hospitals and marketplaces with Sarin gas,
and with barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia and
phosphorous, with no military purpose other than to kill as many
innocent people as possible.

So it's horrific, but it's still capitalism. So I don't know what
"early capitalism" means.

RE: 26-Jan-18 World View -- In major policy shift, China will demolish thousands of migra - pbrower2a - 02-02-2018

(02-02-2018, 07:05 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
(02-01-2018, 02:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   So what would be an example of a capitalist society where the
>   laborers built a city, and then the government came in and evicted
>   10% of the population and threw them out into the streets in a
>   period of a few months?

>   Or is your point that you want to claim that China is in "early
>   capitalism"?

(02-01-2018, 05:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   It is treating workers much as early capitalism did.

The problem is that I don't understand what you mean by "early
capitalism."  Capitalism doesn't really exist, except as the absence
of something else, in the same sense that cold doesn't exist except as
the absence of heat.

So "capitalism" is the default, and has been for millennia, and a lot
of capitalist societies are pretty horrific.  For example, Syria today
is a capitalist society, even though Bashar al-Assad uses horrific
"industrial strength" torture that's sickened everyone, attacks women
and children in schools, hospitals and marketplaces with Sarin gas,
and with barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia and
phosphorous, with no military purpose other than to kill as many
innocent people as possible.

So it's horrific, but it's still capitalism.  So I don't know what
"early capitalism" means.

It's the capitalist order that Karl Marx knew and thought capitalism would never abandon -- the sort of capitalism existed before capitalists decided that to save themselves from proletarian revolutions they would have to turn workers into avid consumers. Workers who have cars, refrigerators, good clothes, electronic gadgets, and non-slum housing have more to lose than 'their chains', as in Marx' appeal

"Workers of the world unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains!"

Syrian workers definitely have some chains to lose, and little else to lose.

3-Feb-18 World View -- Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes - John J. Xenakis - 02-02-2018

*** 3-Feb-18 World View -- Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes
  • Calais becomes difficult choke point in Brexit negotiations

****
**** Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes
****

[Image: g180202b.jpg]
A group of migrants carrying sticks during clashes with other migrants in Calais (EPA)

Police in Calais France intervened to protect around 20 Afghan
migrants being attacked by more than 100 African migrants armed with
iron rods and sticks.

This incident occurred on Friday afternoon, around the same time as a
gunfight three miles away between about 100 Eritreans and 30 Afghans
queueing for free meals at a distribution point near the town's
hospital. Between the two incidents, 22 migrants are being treated in
hospitals, including five in critical condition with gunshot wounds.

Nothing like this was ever supposed to happen again, once France
closed down and bulldozed the big Calais migrant camp called "The
Jungle" in 2016. At one point, The Jungle housed almost 10,000
migrants, and France's president Emmanuel Macron has promised that The
Jungle will never return, saying, "There will be no reconstruction of
the Jungle and no tolerance for the illegal occupation of public
space."

To prevent a new Jungle from appearing spontaneously, Macron has
adopted a number of very harsh policies. According to various
reports, police are treating refugees brutally. Materials such as
sleeping bags and covers are being confiscated and thrown out.
Refugees are prevented from sleeping in the open, so they have to run
into the woods and sleep there. Sometimes the police spray food with
teargas so that it become inedible.

Nonetheless, various estimates indicate that 700-1000 migrants
are now "sleeping rough" in Calais, mostly in the woods. When
"The Jungle" existed, there was an infrastructure including
semi-permanent dwellings, regular food deliveries, and some
level of police protection for the migrants. Today, it's
total chaos, with migrants sleeping under trees, NGOs providing
irregular food deliveries, and police committed to getting rid
of the migrants.

A furious Calais Mayor Natacha Bouchart said such violence "was
absolutely unacceptable," and said her town was confronted by all-out
gang warfare:

<QUOTE>"They are people who live off this. Culturally, they
are against the state, institutions. They help neither the
migrants nor the population.

The serious incidents multiplied from this afternoon. This was
fighting between migrants, these were turf wars. There are more
and more guns, iron bars and other weapons being used.

We have to clear the area. This is a security issue. The public
can't carry on accepting this situation."<END QUOTE>

France's Interior Minister Gerard Collomb spent the night
in Calais and said:

<QUOTE>"There will be people here at their wits’ ends faced
with this increasingly violent presence among a certain number of
migrants, who it is plain to see are organized in gangs.

We know there are gang leaders ... and it is these networks we
must dismantle."<END QUOTE>

Collomb has a solution: He said that within two weeks the government
would take over control of food distribution from local aid groups and
conduct the handouts outside the town. That, he said, would remove an
incentive for the migrants to gather in Calais.

In addition, last month Britain and France announced that the 2003 Le
Touquet migration agreement will be renewed, and that Britain will pay
£44.5 million to France to reinforce security measures in Calais,
including fencing, CCTV and detection technology. France 24 and Reuters and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** Calais becomes difficult choke point in Brexit negotiations
****

Last week, protesting French fishermen completely shut down the port
of Calais. Fishing boats blocked ferries from leaving and entering
the port, while on land, fishermen burned tires to block access to the
port of Boulogne-Sur-Mer.

The fishermen were protesting electric pulse fishing by large
trawlers. The technique uses electrodes to emit electric waves,
stunning fish which then float upwards and are scooped up by giant
nets. However, supporters of pulse fishing say the technique reduces
unwanted bycatch and avoids plowing nets along the seabed.

The second issue that the French fishermen were protesting was that
they could lose access to English fishing waters after Brexit. With
Britain in the EU, all the fishing waters are shared by all EU
countries. After Brexit, that issue has to be renegotiated. This is
just one more of the difficult issues that the port of Calais is
presenting to UK-EU negotiators.

The blockade of the port ended after a few hours, but it took many
more hours to clear the traffic jam that had built up.

That's because more than 2.6 million vehicles per year cross the
English Channel between Calais and the Port of Dover, and any
temporary blockage can cause a major traffic jam.

Today, with Britain still part of the EU, vehicles move on and off
ferries to cross the Channel without delay, but after Brexit, there
will have to be customs border checks. France says that it will have
to hire an extra 95 customs officers this year, to perform the border
checks after Brexit in March 2019. According to one analyst, a
two-minute delay to process a single truck could cause a 17 mile
traffic jam.

Britain has not yet announced its plans for its own customs border
checks on its side of the Channel, but prime minister Theresa May says
that it is seeking the freest possible trade with the EU after Brexit.
Independent (Ireland) and UK Haulier and Reuters and London Express

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, Britain, Dover,
Afghans, Eritreans, Jungle, Boulogne-Sur-Mer,
Emmanuel Macron, Natacha Bouchart, Gerard Collomb,
electric pulse fishing, Brexit, Theresa May

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

4-Feb-18 World View -- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inaugurat - John J. Xenakis - 02-03-2018

*** 4-Feb-18 World View -- Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration
  • Fears grow of repeat of 2008 post-election violence

****
**** Kenya cracks down on political opposition after mock inauguration
****

[Image: g180203b.jpg]
Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga holds up a Bible as he swears himself in as "the people's president of the Republic of Kenya" (AFP)

Kenya is in crisis after the government led by president Uhuru
Kenyatta, an ethnic Kikuyu, has been cracking down on free speech in
violation of a court order, and is making arbitrary arrests of leading
figures in the opposition, which is led by Raila Odinga, an ethnic
Luo.

The government earlier this week ordered Kenya's top three independent
TV channels to stop broadcasting, to prevent them from broadcasting
Odinga's mock inauguration ceremony. The shutdown was originally
supposed to be temporary, but the government has ordered the shutdown
to continue. On Thursday, a pro-Odinga activist obtained a court
order saying declaring the shutdown at an end, but the Kenyatta
government has used police force to prevent the court order from being
served on the government.

At the same time, the government have ordered the arrests of several
pro-Odinga supporters. In one case, that of political activist Miguna
Miguna, the police are ignoring a court order that he be released on
bail.

Kenya's government chaos began in August of last year, when Uhuru
Kenyatta won reelection as Kenya's president in an election that
claimed was invalid because of numerous irregularities. In a ruling
that shocked not only Kenya but all of Africa, Kenya's Supreme Court issued a ruling, overturning the election.
A new election was held on October 26. Odinga's
party declared that election invalid and boycotted it. Kenyatta won
that election as well.

On Tuesday of last week, Odinga held a mock inauguration ceremony at
Uhuru Park in downtown Nairobi, Kenya's capital city. (Uhuru is
Kiswahili for freedom.) He held up a bible and declared himself the
"people's president," at a "swearing-in" ceremony where he said that
he was answering to a "high[er] calling to assume the office of the
people's president of the Republic of Kenya."

Despite the fact that Kenyatta's government called the ceremony an act
of treason, and despite fears that police would prevent the event from
taking place, thousands of enthusiastic Odinga supporters attended the
mock inauguration.

The government permitted the ceremony to go ahead, but called it an
act of treason. It shut down the independent TV stations, forbidding
anyone from broadcasting the event, and then began the arrests of the
"conspirators" in the mock inauguration. CNN and Reuters and The Nation (Nairobi) and NPR

****
**** Fears grow of repeat of 2008 post-election violence
****

In 2007, there was a presidential election where Odinga from the Luo
tribe was defeated for president by another member of the Kikuyu
tribe.

After the December 2007 president elections, there was a period of
extremely bloody inter-tribal violence in the Rift Valley in Kenya,
beginning early in 2008. The worst atrocity occurred when 30 people
were lured into a church to escape violence, and a young gang locked
the doors and set the church on fire, burning everyone alive. All in
all, more than 1,200 people were killed in the tribal violence between
the Kalenjins, who are mostly herders, and the Kikuyus, who are mostly
farmers. The Luos are an offshoot of the Kalenjins.

Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that
climaxed in 1956. At that time, Kenya was a British colony, and the
Mau-Mau rebellion was largely a fight against the colonists. The 2008
violence was not a full-scale war, and it fizzled quickly. But today,
nine years later, a new crisis war is overdue, and with the British
colonists long gone, it's feared that there will be a new full-scale
crisis war between the Kikuya, Kalenjin and Luo tribes.

Kenya's history has been something of a clash between two dynasties,
the Kenyatta and Odinga dynasties. During the Mau-Mau rebellion, both
the Kikuyus, led by Jomo Kenyatta, and the Luos, led by Jaramogi
Oginga Odinga, opposed the British colonists, although because of the
country's geography, the Kikuyus bore the brunt of the fighting.

The Kenyattas and the Odingas were united after the war ended, but as
the younger generations grew up, there was a clear split by the
Awakening era of the 1980s, with Odinga and the Luos leaning toward
Communist Russia and China, while Kenyatta and the Kikuyus were
strongly pro-Western.

Incidentally, Barack Obama's ancestors were Luos. When Obama won the
U.S. presidency in 2008, Kenyans were ecstatic, and his victory was
declared a national holiday. But by the time of his re-election in
2012, Kenyan audiences celebrated him less as the son of a nation than
as the son of a particular ethnic group, the Luos.

The Kikuyus have been in power for most of Kenya's history, and the
Luos have been continually marginalized. After a failed coup in 1982,
Raila Odinga himself was placed under house arrest for seven months.

Today, Kenya is just entering a generational Crisis era. The
survivors of the Mau-Mau rebellion have wanted to prevent a new
full-scale war from occurring, but now those survivors are almost
completely gone, replaced with younger generations, many of whom are
thirsting for war. The 1982 coup, which occurred during a
generational Awakening era, fizzled quickly, as did the violence in
2008. But the population is very different today, and an attempted
coup, if one occurred, could quickly spread into a larger war.

Uhuru Kenyatta is probably aware of this, and that's probably the
reason he tells himself that it's necessary to shut down opposition
television stations and jail opposition leaders. Unfortunately, those
repressive actions will not prevent violence, and in fact could bring
about the violence more quickly. The Nation (Kenya) and The Herald (Zimbabwe) and NPR (24-Jul-2015)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Nairobi, Miguna Miguna,
Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo, Kalenjins,
Mau-Mau rebellion, Jomo Kenyatta, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga,
Barack Obama

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

5-Feb-18 World View -- Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name - John J. Xenakis - 02-04-2018

*** 5-Feb-18 World View -- Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name compromise

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name compromise
  • Officials go from optimism to pessimism over solving Macedonia issue

****
**** Hundreds of thousands in Athens Greece protest Macedonia name compromise
****

[Image: g180204b.jpg]
Hundreds of thousands of Greeks rallied in Athens on Sunday (Sky News)

Chances to resolve a major European dispute dimmed considerably on
Sunday, when hundreds of thousands of Greeks crowded into Syntagma
Square in the center of Athens on Sunday to protest any name change
that contains the word "Macedonia." Crowd size estimates varied from
140,000 to one million.

The dispute is between Greece and the country just north of Greece
known as the "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (FYROM), or
informally (outside of Greece) as just "Republic of Macedonia."

Greece has vetoed attempts by Macedonia to join either Nato or the EU
because many Greeks consider "Macedonia" to be pure Greek name, and
they oppose another other country using it as part of their own name.
They are especially infuriated by Macedonia's claims that Alexander
the Great was Macedonian. They claim that he was Greek because at
that time the Kingdom of Macedon was part of Greece.

The proposed compromises involve adding a modifier, such as "Republic
of New Macedonia," or "Republic of Upper Macedonia." In the past,
right-wing nationalistic governments in both Greece and Macedonia were
refusing to accept any compromise. However, it's been hoped that a
compromise will be reached this year, because the governing parties in
both countries are left-wing.

In Athens, the protests were led by 93-year-old composer Mikis
Theodorakis, who wrote the score for "Zorba the Greek." He has always
been on the far left, but on Sunday he was supporting the far right in
opposing any compromise on the Macedonia name. On Saturday,
self-described Anarchists spray-painted red paint all over his home,
but on Sunday he said, "I am calm and ready." Kathimerini (Athens) and Greek Reporter and BBC and Meta (Macedonia)

****
**** Officials go from optimism to pessimism over solving Macedonia issue
****

[Image: g180204c.jpg]
The statue of Alexander the Great in Freedom Square in the heart of Skopje, Macedonia's capital city, infuriates the Greeks

There has been growing hope expressed by officials in Nato and the
European Union, in Macedonia and even among some officials in Greece,
that finally this decades-old struggle might finally be resolved.

However, Sunday's huge anti-compromise rally in Athens is going to
make compromise difficult. Opinion polls show that a majority of
Greeks oppose the use of "Macedonia" in any compromise solution.
About 300,000 people turned out at a demonstration on Jan. 21 in
Thessaloniki, capital of Greece’s Macedonia region. Even members of
Greece's parliament who would like to adopt a compromise know that
they will have to face angry voters in the next election.

Some Greek officials are saying that there are very real reasons for
concern in agreeing to allow "Macedonia" to be part of FYROM's new
name. These concerns stem from FYROM's constitution.

Article 3 of the FYROM constitution says that the country "has no
territorial claims against neighboring countries," but also states
that the country’s borders could change in accordance with "the
principle of free will and in agreement with internationally accepted
rules."

Article 49 raises the greatest concerns:

<QUOTE>"The republic is interested in the regime and the
rights of all persons belonging to the Macedonian people in
neighboring countries, as well as Macedonian expats, by assisting
in their cultural development and and promoting bonds between
them."<END QUOTE>

Greek officials are concerned that when the lawyers take over at some
future time, then these articles could be used to claim that any
Greeks living in Greece's Macedonian provinces are under the
jurisdiction of the Republic of Macedonia.

Any compromise agreement would have to be ratified by the parliaments
of both countries by a 2/3 majority. If there is no ratification,
then each country would have to hold a referendum. There has been a
lot of optimism that this problem will be solved this year, but
Sunday's huge rally in Athens must at least turn some of that optimism
to pessimism. Balkan EU and Greek Reporter (24-Jan) and Greek Reporter (16-Jan)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Greece, Athens, Macedonia,
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexander the Great, Kingdom of Macedon,
Mikis Theodorakis, Zorba the Greek

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

6-Feb-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on hi - John J. Xenakis - 02-06-2018

*** 6-Feb-18 World View -- Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on his own people

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on his own people
  • UN Security Council is worthless as Syria uses chemical weapons with impunity

****
**** Syria's Bashar al-Assad steps up use of chemical weapons on his own people
****

[Image: g180205b.jpg]
A poison hazard danger sign in the town of Khan Shaykun, Idlib province, Syria (picture-alliance/AA/A. Dagul)

Rescue workers are reporting that warplanes from the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad and from his ally Russia have stepped up
bombing attacks on civilians in densely populated neighborhoods in
Eastern Ghouta and Idlib, and the use of chlorine gas has been stepped
up. At least 29 people were killed.

Typically chlorine gas is deliver through the use of barrel bombs.
The barrel bombs are filled with metal and chlorine gas in order to
kill as many people as possible.

Al-Assad has used Sarin gas in the past to kill dozens or hundreds of
people at a time. As a chemical weapon, chlorine gas doesn't
immediately kill as many people as Sarin, but it's used in a different
way. When warplanes start bombing women and children particularly
hide in basements of buildings. Since chlorine gas is heavier than
air, it seeps down into the basements and forces the choking women and
children out into the open, where they can be targeted by missiles and
gunfire.

As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst
genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011
when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully
protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really
turned around in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive
military assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in
Latakia, filled with tens of thousands of women and children
Palestinians. He dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine,
ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women
and children, he's targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he's
used Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. Shia/Alawite al-Assad
considers almost all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be
exterminated. AP and Reuters and Deutsche Welle

****
**** UN Security Council is worthless as Syria uses chemical weapons with impunity
****

At the United Nations Security Council meeting on Monday, US
Ambassador Nicki Haley condemned Russia for blocking investigations
into the use of chemical weapons in Syria:

<QUOTE>"The news out of Syria this morning is following a
troubling pattern. Victims of what appears to be chlorine gas are
pouring into hospitals. ...

Under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Security Council
Resolution 2118, the Assad regime’s obligations are clear: It must
immediately stop using all chemical weapons. We spent much of
last year in this council watching one country protect the Assad
regime’s use of chemical weapons by refusing to hold them
responsible."<END QUOTE>

The reason that Russia is using its veto to block investigations of
chemical weapons attacks in Syria is because Russia knows that Syria
is using the chemical weapons to target innocent civilians. Bashar
al-Assad is a war criminal, but Russia's president Vladimir Putin is
also a war criminal, and there's honor among thieves or, in this case,
honor among war criminals.

The Russians don't want to make the same disastrous mistake they made
in 2013, after al-Assad's Sarin gas attack, killing hundreds of
civilians. Russia allowed an investigation to go ahead, but they were
too clever by half by allowing the investigation to go forward, but
the investigators were forbidden from assigning blame. So A
U.N. chemical weapons team was authorized to investigate the incident.
However, thanks to a threatened Russian veto, the U.N. team was
forbidden from assigning blame for the Sarin attack. But the team
found a clever way of assigning blame without having to say it.
In their scientific analysis of the
evidence, they included calculations of the trajectories of the
rockets that delivered the Sarin gas. They drew no conclusions about
where the rockets were launched, but they provided enough scientific
information within the report so that experts studying the report
could analyze the trajectories to prove that the rockets must have
been launched from a Syrian Republican Guard unit.

There have been several investigations of the 2013 Sarin gas attack,
and there are thousands of pieces of evidence that al-Assad used Sarin
gas on ordinary civilians, including forensic collections and
analyses, photos, videos, eyewitness testimony, doctors' testimony,
the UNSC report, analyses of the UNSC report, and so forth, proving
al-Assad's repeated use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and
chlorine gas.

As if that weren't enough, there was a new report last week that a new
investigation used laboratory tests to prove that the Sarin gas used
in the 2013 attack was identical to the Sarin gas that al-Assad turned
over to investigators in 2013 when he agreed to permanently eliminate
Syria's chemical weapons program. The new tests prove, once again,
that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the 2013 Sarin gas attack,
though that hasn't been in doubt for years.

After the attack, al-Assad didn't admit he was responsible, but agreed
to a destroy a 1,300 metric ton stockpile of chemicals related to the
2013 attack. Few people believed that al-Assad followed through on
his promise, and laboratory tests since then proved that he didn't.

I've been around for a few decades, and I keep asking myself, how
could all this be happening? We have al-Assad's use of chemical
weapons with impunity, we have Russia invading and annexing Ukraine's
Crimea peninsula, we have China building illegal large military bases
in the South China Sea with the obvious intention soon of controlling
all access to the South China Sea, and we have China building multiple
large nuclear missile systems whose only purpose is to attack the
United States in a preemptive attack. At the same time, we have a
political clown circus going on in Washington, and an equally idiotic
Brexit circus going on in London.

I know that Generational Dynamics has predicted all along that this
sort of thing was going to happen, but I still react in amazement
every day how the world has completely lost all common sense and is
pushing itself off the edge of a cliff, guided by sheer insanity.
It's astonishing. How could all this be happening? Politico and Reuters (30-Jan)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Sarin gas, chlorine gas,
Idlib, Eastern Ghouta, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Nicki Haley, Crimea, China, South China Sea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-06-2018

More calls by JohnX motivated by the pathetic boomer ideology of human rights for all and that Americans are kindred spirits with the Syrian rebels and Iranian dissidents and the Chinese dissidents and Russian dissidents. Face it we face a North Korean nuclear arsenal only because boomers refused to nuke the DPRK. Regarding Both Russia and China we face against their nuclear arsenals largely because under boomer leadership, we insist on branding their governments as less than legitimate. Face it without the UN/NATO Framework Both Russia and China's nuclear arsenals would not be largely pointed at the US but instead would have been pointed at their neighbors and against each other. Any aggression from Russia and China would have lead to the deployment of indigenous nuclear arsenals that would have been pointed in response at Russia and China. This would have occurred without US involvement. It is globalist non-proliferation that makes the US more vulnerable.

The Boomer is so selfish that they implement policies they know don't work rather than implement policies based on the facts simply because developing fact based policies required owning up to why we are even in the mess to begin with. Instead the boomer because of their egomania implements ideological dogma such as giving North Korea the benefit of the doubt even after they broke all arms control treaties signed with us simply because altering policy forces the boomer to admit their ideals were wrong.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-06-2018

(02-06-2018, 05:47 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > More calls by JohnX motivated by the pathetic boomer ideology of
> human rights for all and that Americans are kindred spirits with
> the Syrian rebels and Iranian dissidents and the Chinese
> dissidents and Russian dissidents. Face it we face a North Korean
> nuclear arsenal only because boomers refused to nuke the
> DPRK. Regarding Both Russia and China we face against their
> nuclear arsenals largely because under boomer leadership, we
> insist on branding their governments as less than legitimate. Face
> it without the UN/NATO Framework Both Russia and China's nuclear
> arsenals would not be largely pointed at the US but instead would
> have been pointed at their neighbors and against each other. Any
> aggression from Russia and China would have lead to the deployment
> of indigenous nuclear arsenals that would have been pointed in
> response at Russia and China. This would have occurred without US
> involvement. It is globalist non-proliferation that makes the US
> more vulnerable.

> The Boomer is so selfish that they implement policies they know
> don't work rather than implement policies based on the facts
> simply because developing fact based policies required owning up
> to why we are even in the mess to begin with. Instead the boomer
> because of their egomania implements ideological dogma such as
> giving North Korea the benefit of the doubt even after they broke
> all arms control treaties signed with us simply because altering
> policy forces the boomer to admit their ideals were wrong.
>

A few days ago, someone in the Generational Dynamics forum actually
answered one of your pathetic rantings.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4588&start=10#p37589

He wonders if you're Swiss, and CH stands for Confoederatio Helvetica.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-06-2018

(02-06-2018, 07:35 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
(02-06-2018, 05:47 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   More calls by JohnX motivated by the pathetic boomer ideology of
>   human rights for all and that Americans are kindred spirits with
>   the Syrian rebels and Iranian dissidents and the Chinese
>   dissidents and Russian dissidents. Face it we face a North Korean
>   nuclear arsenal only because boomers refused to nuke the
>   DPRK. Regarding Both Russia and China we face against their
>   nuclear arsenals largely because under boomer leadership, we
>   insist on branding their governments as less than legitimate. Face
>   it without the UN/NATO Framework Both Russia and China's nuclear
>   arsenals would not be largely pointed at the US but instead would
>   have been pointed at their neighbors and against each other. Any
>   aggression from Russia and China would have lead to the deployment
>   of indigenous nuclear arsenals that would have been pointed in
>   response at Russia and China. This would have occurred without US
>   involvement. It is globalist non-proliferation that makes the US
>   more vulnerable.

>   The Boomer is so selfish that they implement policies they know
>   don't work rather than implement policies based on the facts
>   simply because developing fact based policies required owning up
>   to why we are even in the mess to begin with. Instead the boomer
>   because of their egomania implements ideological dogma such as
>   giving North Korea the benefit of the doubt even after they broke
>   all arms control treaties signed with us simply because altering
>   policy forces the boomer to admit their ideals were wrong.
>  

A few days ago, someone in the Generational Dynamics forum actually
answered one of your pathetic rantings.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4588&start=10#p37589

He wonders if you're Swiss, and CH stands for Confoederatio Helvetica.
Xers and Millies deeply respect the concept of sovereignty. We are putting our foot down on syria. So boomers are just going to have to accept that the international boundary of Syria means that western concepts of law can't be applied to a non-western nation like syria.

That poster on your forum is clearly another globalist boomer who agrees with you and other globalist ideologues. Xers and Millies desire an america where looking at other nations, an assad, a putin, and a milosevic can do what they please within their borders and have diplomatic relations and trade relations and US money and arms at the same time, we desire an america where we look at Assads actions and nod approvingly at a job well done at restoring order. This is prevented by the extreme selfishness of the boomers.

7-Feb-18 World View -- Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean - John J. Xenakis - 02-07-2018

*** 7-Feb-18 World View -- Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Maldives president arrests Supreme Court justices to get favorable court ruling
  • Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean

****
**** Maldives president arrests Supreme Court justices to get favorable court ruling
****

[Image: g180206b.gif]
Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean

India is debating whether it will be necessary to intervene military
in the Maldives, as the government appears to be getting increasingly
unstable.

Maldives is an archipelago of around 1,200 islands in the Indian
Ocean, off the coast of India, with enormous strategic significance
because of its proximity to international sea lanes through which
two-thirds of the world’s oil and half its container shipments pass.

Maldives has had one presidential crisis after another for years, but
the current crisis began most acutely in March 2015, when president
Abdulla Yameen jailed Mohamed Nasheed, a former president who had been
the only democratically elected president in the country's history.
Nasheed and a dozen supporters were jailed on "terrorism" charges,
which Nasheed said were politically motivated.

Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in jail, but in 2016 he was
permitted to go the UK for emergency medical treatment. While in the
UK, he was granted asylum, and he's lived there in exile.

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the 2015 convictions were
unconstitutional, and that all of Nasheed's supporters should be
released from jail.

In response, Yameen ordered the police to arrest two of the Supreme
Court justices. The remaining three judges then reversed the previous
order to free Nasheed's supporters, and so they remain in jail.
Yameen has ordered a 15-day state of emergency and imposed martial
law, giving him and the police unlimited authority to arrest anyone
without charging them.

The biggest industry in the Maldives is tourism, and this is the
height of the tourist season. The US, the UK, India and China are all
advising citizens not to travel to the Maldives for fear that the
political chaos could turn into street violence.

Nasheed, still in exile, is calling on India to intervene militarily.
India did intervene militarily in 1998, when Maldives was under attack
from Sri Lankan Tamil militants. Today, India is keeping its navy on
alert and continuing patrols around the Maldives islands, but there
are no plans now to intervene. Al-Jazeera and New Delhi TV and BBC and Daily Telegraph (Australia) and AP

****
**** Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean
****

When Mohamed Nasheed was president, Maldives had a close relationship
with the UK and India. However, president Yameen has distanced
himself from the UK and India, and is developing close relationships
with China, much to the distress of India.

Under Yameen, Maldives has also developed close relations with Saudi
Arabia. In June, 2017, Maldives joined in the blockade by Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain against Qatar.

For decades, India has considered both Maldives and Sri Lanka to be
part of its major sphere of influence. But China has invaded both
countries with infrastructure projects, gaining influence at India's
expense. China has recently taken control of Sri Lanka's southern
Hambantota seaport.

India was shocked on December 8 when China and Maldives signed a Free
Trade Agreement (FTA). This brings Maldives into China's Maritime
Silk Road, a component of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Other
agreements provided for cooperation in health, tourism, technology and
climate change. When combined with China's control of Sri Lanka's
Hambantota seaport, this gives China considerable control over the sea
lanes in the India Ocean. The Diplomat and First Post (India) and Nikkei Asian Review and The Diplomat (21-Apr-2017)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Maldives, Abdulla Yameen, Mohamed Nasheed,
India, China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Maritime Silk Road, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-07-2018

JohnX why do globalist do gooders refuse to respect the constitution? All anti-globalists are asking is that the laws of the land be respected and implemented as those laws were originally intended to be.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-07-2018

(02-07-2018, 09:04 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: JohnX why do globalist do gooders refuse to respect the constitution? All anti-globalists are asking is that the laws of the land be respected and implemented as those laws were originally intended to be.

Blah, blah, blah.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-07-2018

(02-07-2018, 09:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
(02-07-2018, 09:04 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: JohnX why do globalist do gooders refuse to respect the constitution? All anti-globalists are asking is that the laws of the land be respected and implemented as those laws were originally intended to be.

Blah, blah, blah.

John X you post on many forums and in all of those forums you mention that Xers and Millies defending human rights in the ideological context of next crisis war. How does it not occur to you to notice when you declare human rights to be "American values", that no (or very few) Xers and Millies agree with you, how come most are willing to embrace the human monster, in direct contradiction to "human rights" ideology? Could it be that most Young people despise human rights and globalism?

8-Feb-18 World View -- Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border - John J. Xenakis - 02-07-2018

*** 8-Feb-18 World View -- Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border
  • Nigeria sends army to curb violence between herders and farmers

****
**** Nigeria threatens Cameroon as 40,000 refugees cross the border
****

[Image: g180207b.jpg]
Cameroon Francophone security forces (AFP)

Some 30,000-40,000 refugees from the Anglophone (English-speaking)
Southern Cameroons region of Cameroon have been flooding across the
border into Nigeria, to escape violence and atrocities by the security
forces of the Francophone (French-speaking) government of Cameroon's
president Paul Biya.

The violence started in 2016, but at the start is one almost entirely
one-sided violence, with the Francophone security forces violently
attacking peaceful Anglophone protesters.

In 2016, the peaceful protests began with claims by Anglophone lawyers
that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with
many laws passed without even being translated into English.
Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting that all courses in the
schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was
forbidden. The Francophone police responded by severely beating
several protesters, and shooting two of them dead.

Violence by Francophone security forces grew during 2017, and took a
particularly dangerous turn on September 22, when pro-Anglophone
activist forces began using small bombs to target local security
forces. On October 1, separatists staged a massive march, and
declared the independence of Ambazonia. In the increasingly violent
Francophone government crackdown that followed, hundreds of people
were arrested, and helicopter gunships were used to fire on innocent
civilians and kill them, resulting in the mass flight of refugees into
Nigeria.

The October 1 marches were led by separatist activist Sisiku Ayuk
Tabe.

On January 5, Nigeria captured Tabe while at a meeting in Abuja,
Nigeria. Tabe was arrested with 46 of his supporters. After much
political debate and calculation within the Nigerian government, a
decision was made to extradite Tabe and his supporters back to
Cameroon for trial. The extradition faced international criticism,
because it was feared that the Biya government would torture them and
give them an unfair trial.

It's possible that Nigeria gave in to the extradition hoping somehow
that it would calm the situation on the border, or whatever. With
tens of thousands of Anglophone civilians fleeing across the border
into Nigeria, the Nigerians may have been desperate enough to try
anything.

But now there's a major new complication. As Anglophone Cameroonians
have been fleeing into Nigerian, Francophone Cameroonian soldiers have
been crossing the border in violation of international law, following
the fleeing refugees, arresting some of them, and taking them back to
Cameroon.

Even worse, some of the people that the Cameroon soldiers arrested
were actually Nigerian citizens, infuriating Nigeria's government.

Nigeria's Senator Enoh alleged that over 80 Cameroonian soldiers with
various weapons crossed the international border of the
Danare-Daddi/Danre-Bodom axis and abducted five natives.

<QUOTE>"This is a calculated assault/offence from the
Cameroonian military on Nigeria and on outright defiance of
Nigeria territorial sovereignty, not minding the consequences of
crossing the international boundary to carry out intimidations and
harassment on the already alarmed citizens of Danare, with
warnings of further assault."<END QUOTE>

There are increasing fears that the situation in Southern Cameroons is
spiraling out of control, especially since Cameroon's 84-year-old
president Paul Biya is willing to use any amount of violence,
slaughter, torture and abuse to stay in power.

Cameroon's last generational crisis war was the "UPC Revolt,"
1956-1960, which was a bloody civil war by communists attacking the
French government in the Cameroun colony. The outcome was
independence in 1961, when the British Cameroons colony and the French
Cameroun colony were merged into a single country, and the Anglophones
became a disadvantaged and marginalized minority. Today, Cameroon is
right on the cusp of entering a generational Crisis era, which means
that it's possible that the current violence could spiral into a new
civil war, this time between the Anglophones and the Francophones.
Vanguard (Nigeria) and Independent (Nigeria) and Vanguard (30-Jan)

Related Articles

****
**** Nigeria sends army to curb violence between herders and farmers
****

On January 31, a group of young men believed to be from the Christian
Tiv farmer ethnic group attacked travelers waiting at the Gboko bus
station in central Nigeria. The travelers were said to have "light
skin and look like Fulanis," referring to the Muslim Fulani herder
ethnic group. The Tiv attackers used sticks, stones and machetes to
subdue the victims, and then set them on fire.

The attack is believed to be in revenge for an attack a week earlier
by armed Fulanis who stormed a Tiv farming village and opened fire on
the residents.

These are just two of a series of increasingly violent tit-for-tat
attacks between herders and farmers. Herders are mostly Muslims from
the Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly Christians from a number of
tribes, including the Tiv, Mambila and Bachama tribes. About 168
people were killed in these tit-for-tat attacks in January alone.

On Wednesday, Nigeria's army announced the launch of "Exercise Ayem
Akpatum," a phrase that is said to mean "Cat race" in the Tiv
language. The exercise will run from February 15 to March 31, 2018.

It is "aimed at curbing all cases of kidnapping, armed banditry,
cattle rustling in Kaduna and Niger states, sundry crimes in Kogi
state and herdsmen/farmers clashes in all respective states,
especially in Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa states." Focus will be
placed on raids, search operations, anti-kidnapping drills, road
blocks, check points and humanitarian activities such as medical
outreaches.

I have my doubts that "Exercise Ayem Akpatum" is going to do anything
to solve the problem, but that remains to be seen.

As I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda,
Nigeria, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the
1800s, is that in country after country, there a classic and recurring
battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down.

As in the case of the Cameroon situation, there are fears that the
increasing violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria today will
spiral into full-scale civil war. Nigeria's last generational crisis
war was the Biafran War or Nigerian Civil War, fought between Nigeria
and the secessionist Republic of Biafra. The war began on July 1967,
and ended on January 11, 1970, with the surrender of Biafra.

Since that war climaxed only 48 years ago, Nigeria is in a
generational Unraveling era, and there are plenty of traumatized
survivors of that war still alive who will do anything to prevent it
from happening again. So there will not be a new civil war at the
present time, but this localized violence between herders and farmers
will continue and worsen. AFP and AFP (1-Feb) and Nigerian Eye and Nigerian Government

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Francophone,
Paul Biya, Anglophone, Sisiku Ayuk Tabe, UPC Revolt,
Benue State, Hausa, Faluni tribe, Tiv tribe, Mambila tribe,
Bachama tribe

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RE: 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct a - Warren Dew - 02-08-2018

(02-01-2018, 11:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Every generational Awakening era has a climax.  America's Awakening
era climaxed with the resignation of president Richard Nixon in 1974.
Iran's Awakening era will climax with some sort of regime change that
will replace the Khamenei and the other hardline geezers that
survived the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and are still running
the country with a new, younger generation of leaders.

Why do you think they will be younger?  Reagan wasn't younger than Nixon.

Different, possibly even favoring the US, yes.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 02-08-2018

I posted this elsewhere (Political Wire):

Let us remember that November 11, 2018 will be the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I, the second-most destructive war ever and the war that made possible the horrors of Bolshevism, Nazism, and sundry other novel forms of brutal tyranny that made the most destructive war in history and genocidal slaughters a near inevitability.

World War I was the worst possible war at the time, and a calamity whose horror nobody predicted at its start. It is hard to imagine a war that so universally scarred the surviving soldiers Nobody fully understands why it came to be, but the militarization of so many cultures surely contributed to the horror of the war. Monarchs and presidents were proud of their well-drilled infantry units and of their battleships, and of the rapid development of armament industries nd related big business (including steel and chemicals).

As demonstrated in the next war, World War I gave at best temporary and superficial solutions to the failings of the pre-war world. It weakened the best of men and empowered the worst. Donald Trump, who seems to have little studied history of any kind, attaches himself as much as possible to military pomp and regimentation -- just like the Emperors of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Russia, all of whose political systems disintegrated at or near the ends of the war. A militaristic culture is spoiling for a fight, and those spoiling for a fight usually get one. It is the same with kings in palaces as it is with angry drunks in seedy saloons.

The least appropriate treatment for the 100th anniversary of the end of what had been called the Great War and the War to End All Wars ("to end all" meaning a superlative in the day) is a display of military prowess. More apt would be contemplation of the stupidity of a militarized culture that easily drifts into pointless war over some affront. Prayer and fasting would be far more apt.

9-Feb-18 World View -- US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian reg - John J. Xenakis - 02-08-2018

*** 9-Feb-18 World View -- US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces
  • International Crisis Groups asks Russia to prevent Israel-Iran war in Syria

****
**** US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces
****

[Image: g180208b.jpg]
CNN goes on patrol with US soldiers in Syria

The war in Syria may have gotten even more chaotic on Thursday when
US-backed Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), backed by US warplanes, clashed
with pro-regime Syrian army forces and allies. The pro-regime forces
launched a massive, coordinated attack on the SDF, and were driven
back with the aid of US warplanes.

The US had been observing the buildup of the pro-regime forces for
several days, as they prepared for this assault on the SDF. During
that period, the US forces contacted the Russians over an established
"de-confliction" hotline that was set up to prevent such clashes.
However, the pro-regime forces attacked anyway, and the SDF forces
counter-attacked in self-defense.

According to Pentagon spokesman Dana White:

<QUOTE>"Syrian pro-regime forces moved in a battalion-sized
unit formation supported by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch
rocket systems and mortars

Syrian Democratic Forces acted in self-defense with support from
the coalition to defeat an unprovoked attack by Syrian pro-regime
forces in eastern Syria. Pro-regime forces initiated what
appeared to be a coordinated attack on Syrian Democratic Forces
east of the Euphrates River deconfliction line.

After 20 to 30 artillery and tank rounds landed within 500 meters
of the SDF headquarters, the Syrian democratic forces , supported
by the coalition, targeted the aggressors with a combination of
air and artillery strikes,

Coalition advisors were with the SDF, and this action was taken in
self-defense. Pro-regime vehicles and personnel that were turned
around and headed back west were not targeted."<END QUOTE>

The Syrian regime attack on the SDF took place to the east of the
Euphrates River, where US-backed forces have been continuing to fight
forces from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
that had been expelled by the SDF from their self-described caliphate
in Raqqa.

According to the Pentagon, an estimated 100 regime fighters were
killed, out of a total of regime fighters, who were backed by
artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortars in the
assault.

The Syrian regime said that the US-backed forces had committed
a "barbaric aggression" representing a "war crime":

<QUOTE>"This new aggression, which represents a war crime and
a crime against humanity and a direct support to terrorism,
affirms the nature of the low US intentions against the
sovereignty of Syria, the unity of its land and people and the US
exploitation of the pretext of fighting terrorism to establish
illegal bases on the Syrian territory."<END QUOTE>

With the Syrian regime dropping barrel bombs containing metal laced
with chlorine gas on women and children in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib,
it's really laughable for the regime to accuse anyone of anything.
According to one doctor, "Ghouta is drowning in blood," where on the
same day, Thursday, 100 people were wounded and at least 14 killed,
including a rescue worker and several children. Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad is still the worst genocidal monster
so far in the 21st century. RFE/RL and Dept. of Defense and Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

****
**** International Crisis Groups asks Russia to prevent Israel-Iran war in Syria
****

Regular readers will recall that for the last two years it's been
apparent that Syria, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, and the SDF were all
fighting ISIS, but that as soon as ISIS was defeated, they would start
fighting each other.

So you have the Syrian civil war between the regime plus al-Assad plus
the Russians plus Iran plus Hezbollah versus the "anti-Assad rebel"
resistance force. You also have the Turks fighting against the Kurds,
where the fight in Afrin continues to drag on. And you have
occasional flare-ups of violence between the SDF and the regime, as
happened on Thursday. And the Israelis are conducting a
counter-terrorism campaign against Hezbollah in the south of Syria.

It's this last war within a war that the International Crisis Group
(ICG) described in a report on Thursday as the most dangerous and
likely to grow through miscalculation into a larger war.

According to the report:

<QUOTE>"The Syrian war has entered a new stage with the
regime of Bashar al-Assad gaining the upper hand. Israel, no
longer content to remain a bystander as Damascus’s position
improves, is now jockeying to reverse the deterioration of its
strategic posture. In this endeavor it has formidable obstacles
to overcome: the regime is more dependent than ever on Iran, which
Israel regards as its most implacable state foe; other enemies,
particularly Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shiite militias, are
entrenched in Syria with Russia’s blessing; and the U.S.,
notwithstanding the Trump administration’s strident rhetoric, has
done little to reverse Iran’s gains. Yet Israel’s hand is not so
weak. Russia has given it room to act against Iran-linked military
interests and appears to be more interested in balancing
contending fighting coalitions than returning every last piece of
territory to the Assad regime’s control. But if Russia wishes to
eventually withdraw or draw down its forces, it will need to
broker rules of the game. Russia has indicated scant interest in
doing so, but if it does not, hostilities between Israel and Iran
may threaten its accomplishments, particularly regime
stability."<END QUOTE>

The report says that this is going to result in a larger war through
miscalculation, unless Russia takes on the responsibility of mediating
a solution. The report says:

<QUOTE>"Russia should broker understandings that bolster the
de-escalation agreement distancing Iran-backed forces from Syria’s
armistice line with Israel; halt Iran’s construction of precision
missile facilities and its military infrastructure in Syria; and
convince Israel to acquiesce in foreign forces remaining in the
rest of Syria pending a deal on the country’s
future."<END QUOTE>

One can only think that this is a joke. None of these actors -- Iran,
Syria, Hezbollah or Israel -- is going to agree to anything like this.

In fact, the thought of Russia negotiating some sort of peace
agreement is itself a joke. Russia has already negotiating
"de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones" in its Astana (Kazakhstan)
peace process, but now Russia itself is the biggest violator of its
own agreement, but massive bombing of deconfliction zones in Eastern
Ghouta and Idlib.

Russia can't negotiate a peace agreement because Russia wants to
exterminate the same Sunni Muslims that al-Assad wants to exterminate.
For Russia, a "peace agreement" is total destruction of the enemy who,
in this case, are millions of mostly innocent civilians.

The United Nations can't broker a peace because the United Nations is
itself a joke.

There's only one entity that could possibly play the role of forcing a
negotiated peace, and that's the United States, Policeman of the
World. But the US, even with the help of a US-led coalition, has
neither the desire nor the ability to succeed at that role, and still
has its hands full fighting ISIS.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. International Crisis Group and Middle East Eye and Arab News

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Ghouta,
Syrian Defense Forces, SDF, Euphrates River, Russia,
Dana White, Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
barrel bombs, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous, Sarin gas,
Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, International Crisis Group, ICG

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100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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RE: 2-Feb-18 World View -- Reformist criticizes Iran's Supreme Leader, as women conduct a - John J. Xenakis - 02-09-2018

(02-08-2018, 01:25 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Why do you think they will be younger? Reagan wasn't younger than
> Nixon.

> Different, possibly even favoring the US, yes.

I didn't mean anything subtle or misleading about this. I'm talking
about the next group of leaders as a whole. The younger generation 20
years ago become the leaders of today, even if one particular person
is older.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 02-09-2018

(02-08-2018, 10:12 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > "As demonstrated in the next war, World War I gave at best
> temporary and superficial solutions to the failings of the pre-war
> world. It weakened the best of men and empowered the worst. Donald
> Trump, who seems to have little studied history of any kind,
> attaches himself as much as possible to military pomp and
> regimentation -- just like the Emperors of Germany,
> Austria-Hungary, and Russia, all of whose political systems
> disintegrated at or near the ends of the war. A militaristic
> culture is spoiling for a fight, and those spoiling for a fight
> usually get one. It is the same with kings in palaces as it is
> with angry drunks in seedy saloons."

As far as I know, Obama, Bush and Clinton were also ignorant about
history. Obama was particularly contemptuous of most history because
he was contemptuous of anything that came from Boomers, just as you're
contemptuous of anything that comes from Trump.

Trump started out with chief advisor Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
history and Generational Dynamics. Unfortunately, he's gone now. I
don't know how knowledgeable Trump's other advisors are about history.
My guess is that James Mattis and Rex Tillerson are a lot more
knowledgeable about history than a scientist like Ash Carter or a
total idiot like John Kerry.

Quite honestly, I don't understand how you can interminably keep up
the pretense that anything the comes out of Trump's mouth,
irrespective of what it is or what it's about, is automatically
apocalyptic, racist, white supremacist, war-mongering, misogynistic,
homophobic, and generally in Hillary's Basket of Deplorables.

By the way, living in your bubble, are you even the tiniest bit aware
about how there are daily revelations exploding and building a case
against Hillary, and now stretching to Obama? Obama's administration
was the most corrupt in my lifetime -- IRS targeting of conservatives,
extortion from the financial crisis, lying daily about Obamacare,
sabotaging the election against Trump, and so forth. Obama thought he
could get away with it forever, but now it's all pouring out. Instead
of listening to MSNBC 24 hours a day, you really should allocate one
hour a day to Fox news, so you can see what's going on in the world
besides idiots wanting to impeach Trump.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 02-09-2018

(02-09-2018, 11:10 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As far as I know, Obama, Bush and Clinton were also ignorant about
history.  Obama was particularly contemptuous of most history because
he was contemptuous of anything that came from Boomers.

Boomers have not created anything. Most boomer haters only hate boomers and to some extent late wave silents. Boomer haters generally admire the GI generation who fought and won the last crisis war. That Trump is now listending to Henry Kissinger now rather than Bannon is no suprise, Kissinger actually has learned experience of a crisis war.