Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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28-Mar-18 World View -- Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure - John J. Xenakis - 03-27-2018 *** 28-Mar-18 World View -- Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure **** After a tense meeting that accomplished nothing, the EU and Turkish leaders posed for a silly photo opportunity where they pretend to be friends. From left to right: Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, European Council President Donald Tusk, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker Tensions between the European Union and Turkey have been tense in the last year, including EU referring to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a "dictator," and Erdogan comparing the Dutch and German governments to the Nazis. So there was a summit meeting on Monday in Varna, Bulgaria, attended by Erdogan, European Council President Donald Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker, as well as Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borissov. The purpose of the meeting was to mend relations between Turkey and the EU. There was a lot of angry rhetoric, and there were whole lists of issues on both sides that were left unresolved. However, neither side wanted to risk a total breakdown on relations, so they agreed to continue the EU-Turkey refugee deal, at least in part:
Erdogan has repeatedly expressed fury in particular that the visa-free travel has not been permitted. RTE (Ireland) and EU Observer and Reuters and Kathimerini (Athens) **** **** Other unresolved issues from the EU-Turkey summit meeting **** At the conclusion of Monday's summit meeting, European Council president Donald Tusk said: <QUOTE>"If you are asking me if we achieved some solutions or compromises, my answer is no. What I can say that is that I raised all our concerns, as you know it was a long list."<END QUOTE> EU accession continues to be a major point of hostility -- the process of allowing Turkey to become a member of the European Union. There have been talks since 2005, but there has been enormous hostility on both sides historically rooted from the time when Turkey's Ottoman Empire and European nations were at war. The talks were frozen completely following the failed coup in July, 2016. The most recent major new disagreement occurred two weeks ago, when Turkey sent warships to block gas and oil exploration in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone. Cyprus has been bitterly divided since a 1974 war, with Greek Orthodox Christian Greeks governing the south, and Muslim Turks governing the north. The two sides are partitioned by a "no-man's land," a strip that stretches 112 miles across the entire island. Today, it's only the Greek government of Cyprus that is recognized by the EU, and is a member of the EU. Turkey has condemned actions by the Greek Cyprus government to drill for oil and gas without an agreement that Turkey should receive a share of the revenue. In February, Turkish warships blocked an Italian company that was scheduled to drill in Cyprus's territorial waters. Turkey said it would prevent any further drilling off Cyprus without the direct involvement of the Turkish Cypriots. EU leaders made clear that the EU was in solidarity with Cyprus, and that it was necessary for Turkey to improve its relations with both Greece and Cyprus. Another recent disagreement is related to the war in Syria, and to Turkey's Operation Olive Branch, whose purpose is to take control of Syria's northern border city of Afrin. The message from the EU has been mixed. Afrin was controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which is linked to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has conducted numerous violent terrorist acts on Turkish soil, and is recognized as a terrorist group by the United States and the EU. So the mixed message from the EU in recent days was "you have a right to protect your border, but don't go too far in killing or displacing civilians." EU officials are giving the Afrin operation as another reason for a delay in further accession talks. However, with regard to the military operation in Afrin, Erdogan said he expects the EU’s support in dealing with terrorists. Erdogan said: <QUOTE>"It would be a grave mistake for Europe, which claims to be a global force, to push Turkey out of its expansion policy. Our operations against terrorism not only contribute to the security of ourselves and the Syrians but also to the security of Europe. We now expect strong support [from Europe] on sensitive issues such as the fight against terrorism instead of rambling and unjust criticism. I hope that we together have taken the first step of restoring confidence between the EU and us [Turkey] today, but it is not enough to say that we took this step; it has to be taken in concrete terms. We hope that we have left a difficult period in Turkey-EU relations behind."<END QUOTE> Other issues raised by the European Union include concerns about the rule of law in Turkey, the mass jailing of journalists, and the jailing of two Greek soldiers who accidentally crossed the border from Greece into Turkey. With regard to the Greek soldiers, European Commission president Jean-Claude Jüncker said that they should be released from jail before the Greek Orthodox Easter on April 8. (The Catholic Easter this year is on April 1.) To Vima (Athens) and AP (22-Mar) and Cyprus Mail and EU Observer and Hurriyet (Ankara) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Bulgaria, Boyko Borissov, European Council, Donald Tusk, Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, European Commission, Jean-Claude Jüncker, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Syria, Operation Olive Branch, Afrin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-Mar-18 World View -- Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreig - John J. Xenakis - 03-28-2018 *** 29-Mar-18 World View -- Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working **** Early March: Vladimir Putin smirks when a BBC reporter asks him whether Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal In 2011, massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia spread to Libya, and by February, the bloodbath in Libya spread from Benghazi and Tobruk in the east to Tripoli in the west. This caused a massive refugee crisis in Libya, with hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into Egypt and neighboring countries, and across the Mediterranean into Europe. That led the Arab League to demand that the West implement a no-fly zone, and approval by the UN Security Council. The no-fly zone eventually led to the war in Libya, and the death of Muammar Gaddafi. As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics" ) The way it works is that Russia demands that any military action taken by the United States or Nato must be approved by the UN Security Council, giving the Russians an effective veto of the US and Nato foreign policy. On the other hand, Russia can invade Ukraine, invade Crimea, annex Crimea, support war crimes by Syria's Bashar al-Assad, all without getting any UN approval. So Russia has complete military freedom, while the West is constrained by Russia's UNSC veto. It's really a remarkable plan, and it's been incredibly successful, completely crippling the UN, and turning it into a body that provides cover for international criminals, rather than stopping them. China has adopted a variation of the same strategy. China has built artificial islands in the South China Sea, annexing other countries' regions or blocking access by other countries to their centuries-old fishing grounds, and has turned those artificial islands into massive military bases. The United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague eviscerated all of China's claims in the South China Sea, in July, 2013, and ruled that all of China's activities are unambiguously violations of international law. China's reaction is to say that international law doesn't apply to them. China has also been using its military to bully other nations into supporting them. It's as if the KKK lynched 10 black men and then bullied cops and judges into supporting them. So Russia and China have made it clear that international law doesn't apply to them, and they can do anything they want, and they'll kill anyone who tries to stop them. Two recent international events, both major and remarkable, have made it clear that this strategy is no longer working. The first is the North Korea situation, where the Donald Trump administration had made military threats that are actually credible. A lot of people have said publicly that they think that Trump is crazy, but that's a negotiating strategy that's worked to his advantage, since both China and North Korea think he's crazy enough to carry through with his threat. And it's clear that any military action taken by the Trump administration will not be subject to a Russian or Chinese veto in the UN Security Council. **** **** The West reacts to Russia's poisoning of double-agent Skripal **** The second remarkable international event is the Western reaction to the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using a Russia-developed nerve agent Novichok. At this writing, both of the poison victims are in hospital, and are not expected to survive. From the beginning, there was little doubt that Russia was responsible, and that they were sure they would get away with it, because of Russia's veto power in the UN Security Council. As I reported in my article, Russia's president Vladimir Putin smirked and gave a sarcastic answer when a BBC reporter asked about it. This was followed by a massive disinformation campaign by Russia by Russian trolls, calling the accusations a "circus show," a "fairy tale," and a "plot to victimize Russia." On the BBC a couple of days ago, I heard a Russian official claim that this was the latest in 200 years of Western attacks on Russia. Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious response to this: <QUOTE>"There is something in the kind of smug, sarcastic response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time to glory in it. There is very little doubt in people’s minds that this is a signature act by the Russia state – deliberately using novichok, a nerve agent developed by Russia to punish a Russian defector as they would see it, and in the run up to Vladimir Putin’s election. This was a former Russian agent living in this country who had been singled out already by the Russian state as an object for revenge and retaliation, and Vladimir Putin has been on the TV only recently saying that such people deserve to be poisoned, to choke on their own 30 pieces of silver. This is a way of showing look at what happens to people who stand up to our regime."<END QUOTE> An investigation of the evidence by scientists from Britain and several other European countries led to the conclusion that Russia, and probably Putin himself, were responsible for the poisoning. That much isn't remarkable at all. Putin has had other former agents poisoned in the past, and has violated international law many times, and there were the same kinds of investigations, and the same kinds of disinformation campaigns by Russian trolls. And there was always the same smirk, because Putin knew that he would get away with it. What is remarkable this time is that Western nations were united in backing Britain's prime minister Theresa May in taking action against Russia. Over 20 countries, including the US, Canada, and several European Union countries, have expelled Russian diplomats. Expelling diplomats is not going to do much damage to Putin. The shocking thing is that all of these Western nations were unified in condemning Russia, something that hasn't happened in the past. This was meant to send a signal to Russia, and to China as well, the days of using the United Nations to have veto power over Western foreign policy are coming to an end. Guardian (London, 15-March) and Reuters (18-March) **** **** China reacts furiously to Western expulsion of Russian diplomats **** The expulsion of the diplomats by so many countries was a big surprise to both Russia and China. China's state-controlled Global Times responded with a furious editorial: <QUOTE>"The fact that major Western powers can gang up and "sentence" a foreign country without following the same procedures other countries abide by and according to the basic tenets of international law is chilling. During the Cold War, not one Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet today it is carried out with unrestrained ease. Such actions are nothing more than a form of Western bullying that threatens global peace and justice."<END QUOTE> It's laughable to read about the Chinese appealing to international law. Keep in mind that what the Chinese are whining about is expelling some diplomats. Contrast that to China's actions in the South China Sea, which are violations of international law thousands of times more serious than just expelling diplomats. However, the article is right to say, "During the Cold War, not one Western nation would have dared to make such a provocation and yet today it is carried out with unrestrained ease." That was during a generational Unraveling era, when everybody's behavior is far more compromising. Today, the world is deep into a generational Crisis era, and as I've written many dozens of times in recent years, populations are becoming increasingly nationalistic, belligerent and xenophobic. <QUOTE>"Over the past few years the international standard has been falsified and manipulated in ways never seen before. The fundamental reason behind reducing global standards is rooted in post-Cold War power disparities. The US, along with their allies, jammed their ambitions into the international standards so their actions, which were supposed to follow a set of standardized procedures and protocol, were really nothing more than profit-seizing opportunities designed only for themselves. These same Western nations activated in full-force public opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies to defend and justify such privileges."<END QUOTE> This is a typical Chinese anti-American rant. I don't know what "full-force public opinion-shaping platforms and media agencies" this is referring to, but in the West we have news sources expressing all points of view, while in China if you express a view not approved by the Chinese Communist Party, then you can get yourself abducted, thrown into a pit, tortured and killed. <QUOTE>"As of late, more foreign countries have been victimized by Western rhetoric and nonsensical diplomatic measures. In the end, the leaders of these nations are forced to wear a hat featuring slogans and words that read "oppressing their own people," "authoritarian," or "ethnic cleansing," regardless of their innocence."<END QUOTE> Who are these Chinese talking about? Maybe they're talking about the officials in Myanmar (Burma) who are performing genocide and ethnic cleansing on the Rohingyas. <QUOTE>"It is beyond outrageous how the US and Europe have treated Russia. Their actions represent a frivolity and recklessness that has grown to characterize Western hegemony that only knows how to contaminate international relations. Right now is the perfect time for non-Western nations to strengthen unity and collaborative efforts among one another. These nations need to establish a level of independence outside the reach of Western influence while breaking the chains of monopolization declarations, predetermined adjudications, and come to value their own judgement abilities. It's already understood that to achieve such international collective efforts is easier said than done as they require foundational support before anything can happen. Until a new line of allies emerges, multi-national associations like BRICS, or even the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, need to provide value to those non-Western nations and actively create alliances with them. What Russia is experiencing right could serve as a reflection of how other non-Western nations can expect to be treated in the not-to-distant future. Expelling Russian diplomats simultaneously is hardly enough to deter Russia. Overall, it's an intimidation tactic that has become emblematic of Western nations, and furthermore, such measures are not supported by international law and therefore unjustified. More importantly, the international community should have the tools and means to counterbalance such actions."<END QUOTE> This gets to the heart of the matter. The Chinese are proposing to create another international organization, perhaps a competitor to the United Nations, where they would be in control. This idea is completely delusional, since even if such an organization existed, it would run into the same kinds of conflicts that occur in the UN Security Council. Russia and China in particular were almost in full-scale war with each other in the 1960s. Today they have a marriage of convenience because they're both annexing other countries' regions, doing what Hitler did prior to WW II, and using each other to justify their actions. Russia and China are basically two criminal countries, applying the rule of "honor among thieves." But the real message here is that China and Russia wish to formalize their rejection of international law, which has formed the basis of peace since the end of World War II. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Global Times Related Articles
**** **** China 'prepares for war' with massive naval/air force drills in South China Sea **** China has begun conducting massive maritime combat drills, including dozens of vessels mobilized in the South China Sea as part of what the military said would be bigger, more frequent exercises in the tense region. It appears increasingly that China is preparing its population for war. This is an essential first step before actually launching a war. Satellite photos show an aircraft carrier and dozens of Chinese naval vessels in a large show of force. The Air Force said on its social media account that the exercises were "rehearsals for future wars and are the most direct preparation for combat." Global Times and Telegraph (London) and Newsweek and Stars and Stripes and Reuters Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Tunisia, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, Benghazi, Mediterranean Sea, Arab League, Egypt, NATO, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, North Korea, China, Donald Trump, Theresa May, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Britain, Boris Johnson Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 03-29-2018 Two countries that the rest of the world distrusts. 30-Mar-18 World View -- Ethiopia choose an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confro - John J. Xenakis - 03-29-2018 *** 30-Mar-18 World View -- Ethiopia choose an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confrontation with the courts This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Ethiopia chooses Oromo leader, Abiy Ahmed, hoping to reduce violence **** Ethiopian protesters facing the military Ethiopia has been without a prime minister since February 15, when prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned, saying, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy." Since late 2015, there have been massive anti-government protests in Ethiopia's Oromia region, which later spread to the neighboring Amhara region, leaving hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of arrests. A state of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing mass detentions, and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s movement and communication. The state of emergency ended in August 2017, but massive protests began again, with millions of protesters by February, leading to Hailemariam's resignation. The situation has worsened considerably since Hailemariam's resignation. Almost 10,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have fled across the border into Kenya, after Ethiopian government soldiers began shooting civilians indiscriminately, even in their homes and shops. In the hopes of ending the chaos and bloodshed, Ethiopia's ruling government coalition chose an Oromo, Abiy Ahmed, 42, to be a leader of the coalition. He is now expected to be voted in by parliament as the country’s next prime minister. Abiy is being described as a "polyglot," because he's a speaker of three Ethiopian languages and English He holds a doctorate from Addis Ababa University in traditional conflict resolution and has represented his Oromiya hometown of Agaro in parliament since 2010. He is a retired lieutenant-colonel who previously served as director of the nation’s Information Network Security Agency, which says it provides technical intelligence to support the government. The obvious hope is that by selecting an Oromo as leader, Abiy will be able to "reason with" the Oromo people and end the massive protests. An analogy can be drawn with the situation in Myanmar (Burma). The Burmese army, under the leadership of Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu using Buddhism, began conducting massacres, rapes and torture against ethnic Rohingyas. When Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi effectively became the country's leader, it was welcomed by the entire international community with the hope that the Burmese army would then allow the Rohingyas to live in peace. Instead, the violence has only gotten worse, to the point of ethnic cleansing and genocide, with some 800,000 Rohingyas forced to flee the violence by crossing the border into Bangladesh. You can argue whether Suu Kyi approves of the ethnic cleansing, or whether she disapproves but is forced to approve by the Burmese army. Either way, Suu Kyi has effective turned into a new Hitler, who is providing cover for the continued ethnic cleansing and genocide. We may be seeing the first signs of a similar situation in Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed is just one person, while the existing government, dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, holds all 547 seats in parliament. Abiy is going to be lone voice in the wilderness, compared to the traditional opposition. There may be a brief pause, but we can expect the protests and violence to start again and continue. What will Abiy do then? Will he be another Aung San Suu Kyi and provide cover for continued Tigrayan violence against Oromos and Amharas? Or will he resign, just as Hailemariam Desalegn, and denounce the violence? It really doesn't make much difference. Either way, we can expect the violence to continue, and we can expect millions more Oromos and Amharas to flee across the border into Kenya, further destabilizing the region. Africa News and Al Jazeera and Reuters and The Nation (Kenya, 14-Mar) and Bloomberg Related Articles
**** **** Kenya's government vs the judiciary -- tensions mount over farcical deportation spectacle **** While Ethiopian Oromos are seeking fleeing violence into Kenya, there's also chaos in Kenya's capital city Nairobi, where a farcical deportation spectacle highlighted an increasing conflict between the government of Uhuru Kenyatta and the judiciary. Uhuru Kenyatta and his major opposition are from two ethnic tribes that have been at war in the past -- respectively the Kikuyu tribe and the Luo tribe. The enmity between the two tribes has affected the political sphere, and from there it's spread into a conflict between the government and the judiciary. The first major split occurred last year, when Kenya's Supreme Court shocked pretty much everybody and sided with Odinga in claiming that the August 8 presidential election was "invalid, null and void," forcing a new election. Kenyatta was furious, as he began calling the judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and promising to "fix it" after he was reelected. Kenyatta did win the election, but has been cracking down on Odinga's supporters, and arresting many of them. One of those supporters is political activist Miguna Miguna. In February, the court ordered the government to release him from jail, and the government ignored the court order. Now there's been a farcical new chapter in this drama. Earlier this week, a court held several top Kenyan government officials in contempt for refusing to release Miguna Miguna from custody. Instead of releasing him, the government thugs allegedly drugged him and bundled him onto a plane to Dubai. He wrote in social media: <QUOTE>"I was dragged, assaulted, drugged and forcefully flown to Dubai. I woke up in Dubai and the despots are here insisting that I must travel on to London. ... I woke up in Dubai. I’m sick. I need medical treatment. A Mr Njihia is threatening me. I need urgent help here. I want to take a flight only to Nairobi. Nowhere else!"<END QUOTE> Video of security guards manhandling Miguna as they tried to force him onto a plane the same day went viral, while a number of journalists covering the story were allegedly assaulted. The chief justice, David Maraga, criticized the government, saying: "Disobeying court orders is inimical to the rule of law." The interior minister, inspector general of police and head of immigration have been convicted of contempt of court. Standard Media (Kenya) and BBC and Standard Media Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn, Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Abiy Ahmed, Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Aung San Suu Kyi, Rohingyas, Kenya, Nairobi, Miguna Miguna, David Maraga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from - John J. Xenakis - 03-30-2018 *** 31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists **** Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Like regions in the South China Sea, India and Central Asia, the Chinese are claiming that it's their sovereign territory In 2012, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning that a huge influx of immigrants from China into Siberia and Far East threatened Russia's control of the region and its rich resources. He said that it was "important not to allow negative manifestations ... including the formation of enclaves made up of foreign citizens." Medvedev even went so far as to invite the victims of Japan's 2011 earthquake to migrate there, at least partially over concern about Chinese migrants. Medvedev discussed offering supplies of food and medical equipment to the Japanese, and added, "In general we must now think about the use, if necessary, of some of the employment potential of our [Japanese] neighbors, especially in sparsely populated areas of Siberia and the Far East." Medvedev was right to be concerned. Russia's Far East suffered rapid depopulation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the 1990s, there was enormous poverty and no support from the chaotic Moscow government. As a result, population fell by as much as 50% in the region, as millions migrated east, mostly to the European part of Russia. According to Medvedev, "More than eight million foreign citizens came to Russia in the first six months of 2012 alone." And the flow has continued since then. In just one city, Khabarovsk, about 20 miles from the Chinese border, more than 300 Chinese companies have business operations, investing in almost every major sector of the city’s economy such as trade, construction, lumber and natural resources exploration, hiring thousands of Chinese migrant workers. It's estimated that 1.5 million Chinese illegal migrant workers arrived in the region between June 2016 and June 2017, most of them doing manual labor. Russia's Far East is home to only seven million Russians (or just 1.3 per square kilometer), while there are ten times as many people living across the border in the northeastern region of China. Obviously, there's no way for Russian authorities to halt the flow of migrant workers from China. Jamestown and South China Morning Post (8-Jul-2017) and ABC News (14-Jul-2015) **** **** Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage **** The deepest lake in the world is Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia. Its surface area is the size of Belgium. It draws tourists from all over the world, but particularly from China. Russians are worried that Lake Baikal is drowning in garbage -- mostly from the Chinese migrants and tourists. According to Ivan Loginov, head of the public organization New Energy, the problem of garbage around Lake Baikal is a huge problem: <QUOTE>"Literally next to any village or place of congestion people form huge mountains of garbage. And the saddest thing is that neither the volunteers nor the municipalities have enough strength to fight garbage. Vicious circle. People come and litter, but they do not have enough understanding that this garbage needs to be cleaned. And if they even collect it for themselves, they leave it on the bank, where it gradually accumulates. The municipalities do not have enough money to fight garbage. Moreover, the question arises: where should we take this garbage? In Buryatia garbage is not processed, roughly speaking, it is buried underground. And the situation is very deplorable. ... And garbage remains on the shores of Lake Baikal."<END QUOTE> The rising mountains of garbage are just one of the reasons that local Russians are appalled by Chinese tourists. Chinese guides tell Chinese tourists that Baikal is China’s northern sea, that their ancestors used to live there, and that the territory only belongs to Russia for the time being. These guides also reportedly encourage Chinese visitors to buy property and businesses in order to make money over the next decade. Many are doing so. Chinese involvement in the region has inspired outrage among Russians for several reasons. First is the massive influx of tourists who often behave badly, use only Chinese facilities and so bring little money to Russian firms, and are hated by the local population. Second, Chinese citizens have been buying up land on Lake Baikal that Russians are not allowed to purchase as well as acquiring various Russian companies. All this has been leading to an influx of Chinese permanent residents. And third, the entirely illegal Chinese logging operations in the region are being protected by Russian criminal groups and Russian officials allied with them. Chinese tourists, businesses and migrants are taking control of the region around Lake Baikal. This is not a trivial matter, and will lead to war when the time is ripe. Hong Kong Economic Journal (20-Sep-2017) and NY Times (24-Jul-2016) and Eurasian Business Briefing and Regnum (Russia) and (translation) **** **** Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia **** The Chinese are increasingly claiming "indisputable sovereignty" over many countries' regions, including India, several Central Asian states, and of course the South China Sea, where the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague has ruled that all of China's activities are illegal. International law means little to the Chinese, who say that their own laws supersede international law, and give them the right to invade and annex any region they choose, and back it up with their massive and growing military, threatening to kill anyone who disagrees with them. Media reports indicate that Chinese people are asking this question, especially in social media: <QUOTE>"If China was able to take back Hong Kong from the British on the grounds that the territory was ceded to Britain under an unequal treaty concluded in the 1840s, then why didn’t it reclaim Vladivostok as well, which was also ceded to Russia under another unequal treaty signed in the 1860s?"<END QUOTE> Vladivostok is the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet. It's the farthest point east in Russia, and it's connected to Moscow by the Trans-Siberian Railway that runs to and from Moscow in a week-long trip. Although the Chinese are now claiming Vladivostok as a historically Chinese city, that's provably not true, as it was a city controlled by Manchuria, not China. The Chinese call the city by its Manchurian name, Haishenwai. After China was defeated by the British Opium wars of the 1840s-50s, China was forced to cede Hong Kong to the British, and Vladivostok to the Russians. China annexed Manchuria after World War II, but Vladivostok remained in Russian (Soviet) hands. Russia's president Vladimir Putin takes a great deal of pride in Vladivostok and the Pacific Fleet. There is no possibility at all that Vladivostok will be ceded to the Chinese without a full-scale war, despite the demands of the Chinese social media. As long-time readers have known for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the world is headed for a new Clash of Civilizations world war, with the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. I'm frequently asked how it's possible that Russia will be a US ally, rather than a Chinese ally. The current alliance between Russia and China is a "marriage of convenience" between the countries, because they are both repeating Hitler's actions of annexing other countries' regions, and then they support each other in the United Nations. As we reported last year, China has placed nuclear missiles near the Amur River, which separates China from Russia's Far East. The nominal purpose of these Chinese missiles is to attack the US, but these and other missile systems can also conveniently target Moscow and other Russian targets. Historically, the Russian and Chinese people hate each other. In the 1200s, the Mongols under Genghis Khan conquered and dominated China, in a generational crisis war that climaxed in 1206, forming the Mongol Empire, the largest empire in history. In the next generational crisis war, Genghis Khan's grandson, Kublai Khan, conquered all of China, and created the Yuan Dynasty in 1271. From there, the Mongol Empire attacked and conquered almost all the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the Russian and Chinese people forever. The Mongol Yoke was only thrown off in September 8, 1380, in the seminal Battle of Kulikovo, a generational crisis war where the Russians decisively defeated the Mongols, and the Russian nation was born. The Mongol Yoke still defines Russian-Chinese attitudes today. Even as recently as the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union almost went to war in the border region with Siberia and the Far East. There's a certain ironic truth that comes through when you read Russian history. The Russian people and the Chinese people hate each other, but the Russian people like the American people, and they love the European people, despite the rhetoric of politicians. In the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, when Russia is forced to choose between China and the West, they will choose the West. Russia Beyond the Headlines and Way To Russia Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Russia, Far East, Siberia, Lake Baikal, Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, Japan, Khabarovsk, Ivan Loginov, Vladivostok, Haishenwai, Manchuria, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Amur River, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague Mongols, Genghis Khan, Kublai Khan, Yuan Dynasty, Mongol Yoke, Battle of Kulikovo Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 03-31-2018 This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-31-2018 (03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little More gibberish from ch86, the poster child for Gen-X incompetence and stupidity. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 03-31-2018 (03-31-2018, 09:32 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:Yet Another Post From JohnX the Poster-Child of boomer Arrogance, Incompetence and Selfishness.(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 03-31-2018 Here is your own Articles on Lake Baikal, note that there is not a single mention of China or Chinese in the article. https://regnum.ru/news/society/2310771.html (Translation) https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://regnum.ru/news/society/2310771.html&xid=17259,15700022,15700124,15700149,15700168,15700173,15700186,15700201 I didn't re-post the articles on general Chinese Migration, but even those articles mention that only 500,000 of the migrants are still in Russia, and that Chinese tend to visit the area around Vladivostok, not the lake Baikai/Irkutsk region. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-31-2018 Quote:Were this a single isolated development, it might not be that https://jamestown.org/program/china-expanding-russias-transbaikal-russian-taxpayers-paying/ RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 03-31-2018 (03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well. Unfortunately this is par for the course then John writes about China. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 03-31-2018 (03-31-2018, 06:00 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(03-31-2018, 12:23 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: This latest article just displays JohnX's prejudices and little more. Unsourced and poorly sourced articles that are semi-coherent, sources that don't even say what JohnX claims it said. This is Most notable with the lake Baikal article which didn't even mention China or Chinese. Not to mention that pollution in that lake has been ongoing since the soviet period, not because of chinese tourist, but because of large-scale industrial pollution. Not only that but the presence of Millions of Chinese would have showed up on the census as well. Moron. 1-Apr-18 World View -- Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence wi - John J. Xenakis - 03-31-2018 *** 1-Apr-18 World View -- Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Gaza Palestinian 'Land Day' demonstrations lead to violence with Israel's army **** Palestinians shout during clashes with Israel troops on Friday (Reuters) Thousands of Palestinians on Friday commemorated "Land Day" by marching near Gaza's border fence with Israel, apparently threatening to break through the fence into Israel. In the resulting confrontation with Israel's army, in which tear gas was first used to stop the march and then live gunfire, 16 Palestinians were killed. In addition, 1,400 Palestinians were also wounded on Friday, according to Gaza officials, with 758 wounded by live fire and the remainder hurt by rubber bullets and tear gas inhalation. No casualties were reported among Israelis. The original Land Day occurred on March 30, 1976, after Israel's government announced plans to build new Jewish settlements. This triggered Palestinian marches and demonstrations, and in the ensuing confrontation with Israel's army, six unarmed Palestinians were killed, and dozens injured. The original Land Day is a generational Awakening era climax for the Palestinians, and is consider a highly symbolic day, as the day when a new generation of Palestinian youth first united to oppose Israel. Hamas, the government authority of Gaza, and considered a terrorist organization by the US and the EU, is calling the demonstration the "Great March for Return," meaning that it's accompanied by demands for "Right of Return," the demand that Palestinians be permitted to return to the land that they lost in the Arab-Jewish war in 1948. The violence continued on Saturday, when Palestinian youths hurled stones at Israeli troops, drawing gunfire that wounded 70 people. Reuters and Middle East Eye and AP **** **** Fears grow of resumption of 2014 Gaza war **** Hamas has announced plans to continue the demonstrations for six weeks, until May 14, which is "Naqba Day" or "Catastrophe Day," commemorating the founding, in 1948, of the state of Israel. In addition, May 14 is the day announced by the Trump administration when the official US embassy to Israel will move to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. Although there was a slight lessening of tensions on Saturday, there are concerns that tensions will grow during the six week period. On Saturday, Israel's military spokesman Brigadier General Ronen Manelis said that the Palestinian events were "an organized terrorist activity" by Hamas: <QUOTE>"If it continues, we shall have no choice but to respond inside the Gaza Strip against terrorist targets which we understand to be behind these events."<END QUOTE> However, Palestinian leaders are calling for revenge, and it's feared that this could lead to a resumption of the 2014 Gaza War. The 67 day 2014 Gaza war was a disaster for Hamas. When the war began, Hamas's popularity surged to its highest levels, which is similar to what happens to any society when a war begins, but before there are setbacks. Militarily, the war was a disastrous defeat for Hamas, since Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system blocked almost every Hamas missile entering Israel, while Hamas could put up almost no resistance to the Israeli warplanes bombing Gaza. Hamas had to agree to a ceasefire that was, effectively, a return to the status quo ante from before the war, something that it had promised it wouldn't do. At the end of the war, Gaza was in ruins, and the Gaza Palestinians were worse off than when the war was started. Hamas is not known to have any new technology that would defeat Israel's Iron Dome system and, without that, they would be unlikely to wish to begin another war, and risk humiliation again. However, Iran and Hezbollah are also preparing for war with Israel, and it seems likely that Hamas would delay a war resumption until it could be coordinated with those two entities. BBC and Asharq Al Awsat and Al Jazeera and AFP Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Land Day, Palestinians, Israel, Naqba Day, Catastrophe Day, Ronen Manelis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Apr-18 World View -- Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths - John J. Xenakis - 04-01-2018 *** 2-Apr-18 World View -- Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Massive new anti-India violence in Kashmir leads to 20 deaths **** Kashmiri villagers during a funeral at Shopian, South Kashmir, during the anti-Indian protests (Hindustan Times) Sunday was one of the bloodiest days in Indian-controlled Kashmir in recent months, after a new generation of separatist Kashmiri youths led massive anti-India protests and violence in several parts of Indian-controlled Kashmir. Thousands of Kashmiris were in the streets chanting anti-India slogans and demanding an end to Indian rule over Kashmir. Some 20 people were killed, including 3 soldiers and 17 Kashmiris, with dozens more injured. A spokesman for Hurriyat, a Kashmiri separatist organization, is calling for continued protests in the days to come: <QUOTE>"The joint resistance leadership calls for a shutdown tomorrow against the killings and atrocities on people in south Kashmir. Hundreds have been injured in pellet and bullet firing."<END QUOTE> Separatists are calling for strikes on Monday and Tuesday, and authorities have ordered all schools to be shut. The protests and clashes were triggered by a series of counter-insurgency operations, based on tips to police about where militant separatists may be hiding. Many civilians living in Kashmir support these militants and demand that Indian-governed Kashmir be allowed to merge Pakistan-governed Kashmir, and become part of Pakistan. In June 2017, India announced 'Operation All-Out,' in which thousands of security forces were involved in a massive house-to-house sweep to "deliver a lethal blow to terrorism." Operation All-Out went on for months and was responsible for killing over 200 militants, according to Indian authorities. The violence has already escalated in 2018, with 51 alleged militants already killed so far this year. Geo TV (Pakistan) and AFP and Hindustan Times and AP **** **** Uprising in Kashmir continues to grow into war between India and Pakistan **** As I've described several times in the past, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the growing violence in Kashmir is following a fairly standard historical template that always ends in a major war. I've written in the past to distinguish between "organic" genocides that come from the people, such as the 1994 Rwanda genocide, versus "government-led" genocides, such as occurring today in Syria and South Sudan. Although there's little doubt that Pakistan-based groups are inciting violence in Kashmir, that isn't enough to start a generational war unless the mood of the population is that such a war is necessary. What we're seeing in Kashmir is an "organic" war that's leading unstoppably to a generational crisis war. As I described in the past, India's last two generational crisis wars were India's 1857 Rebellion, and the 1947 Partition war. The 1857 rebellion is also called India's First War of Independence from the British colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians. India remained a British colony, and there was little or no violence for decades, as always happens after a generational crisis war, since the traumatized survivors do not wish anything so horrible to happen again. However, as younger generations with no personal memory of the war rise to power, conflicts begin again. In the 1910s, Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, launched a "non-cooperation movement" against the British, involving civil disobedience. The generational Awakening era climax occurred on April 10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar Massacre), when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a protest meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the British and the Indians that Britain should completely give up control of India. By 1946, there was a debate centered on two choices: Should there be a single Indian state, with separate regions under the control of Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state solution, a Muslim state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu state? The argument that won the day was that Muslims can't stand pigs and Hindus can't eat cows, and so they can't live together. Finally, British, Muslim and Hindu officials all agreed that there had to be two separate states, India and Pakistan. In particular, the 1857 rebellion was still in everyone's mind, and it was hoped that the two-state solution would lead to peace. There's an old saying that "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes." In this case, the massive violence of the 1857 rebellion was repeated, but not between Indians and British. Instead, it was between Hindus and Muslims, and with the same ferocity. In 1947, the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan, and no sooner did that happen then there was a massive new generational crisis war. But with the British colonists gone, this war pitted the Hindus against Muslims, in one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Once again, there was relative peace following the war, but once again, younger generations have been rising, and have no fear of a new war. The accusation today that Pakistan-based groups are using social media to incite violence is undoubtedly true, but India media are no better. Since the 1947 Partition war, there have been three non-crisis wars fought between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Those wars fizzled, but now in a general Crisis era, all the participants -- Pakistanis, Kashmiris and Indians -- are becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic. As the protests and violence grow, this would spiral into a much larger war, just as the initial protests did in 1857 and 1947, and turn into a war between Pakistan and India, both nuclear powers. Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Benar News and Greater Kashmir Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Hurriyat, Operation All-Out, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition War, Mahatma Gandhi, Jalianvala Bagh Massacre, Amritsar Massacre Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African - John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2018 *** 3-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Israel's government in turmoil over failure to deport African migrants **** Asylum seekers in Tel Aviv, Israel, protest against deportation on 24-Feb (AP) Israel's government is in turmoil after a major policy for dealing with African migrants collapsed within a few hours. On Monday morning, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a major new policy for dealing with 16,250 of what it considers to be illegal immigrants from African nations, mostly Eritrea and Sudan. The policy was reached as a deal with the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) which is the agency that handles issues with refugees and migrants. Under the deal between Israel and UNHCR, 16,250 African migrants under threat of being either jailed or deported to another African country, would instead be absorbed and resettled into a Western country. The deal also specifies that another 16,250 similarly threated migrants would be permitted to remain in Israel as "temporary residents." According to UNHCR, Israel is home to about 40,000 asylum seekers including 27,500 from Eritrea and 7,800 from Sudan. The deal left 7,000 unaccounted for. Netanyahu originally said that the agreement was a "landmark achievement," allowing 16,250 migrants to be taken to "developed countries like Canada, or Germany and Italy." Human rights organizations were pleased with the deal, since migrants would be resettled in Western countries. However, other officials objected to the fact that 16,250 migrants would be resettled in Israel. A city councilman in Tel Aviv, where many of the migrants would be resettled, called the agreement a "disaster that will reverberate for generations and cause irreversible damage to the country." A Canadian minister said that Canada was already in contact with UNHCR and Israel about accepting more refugees. However, Italy quickly issued a statement saying that they were not a part of this agreement, and had not even been consulted. Germany issued a similar statement. The Prime Minister’s Office then clarified that Netanyahu had just named those countries as examples of Western countries. By late Monday evening, Netanyahu wrote on Facebook that he was suspending implementation of the agreement for the time being. YNet News and Canadian TV and BBC and Haaretz **** **** Netanyahu: We fell into a 'trap' with failed deportation plan **** The previous deportation plan was announced in January. Each migrant would be given a choice to be jailed, or to receive a check for $3,500 and a plane ticket to another country. Migrants received the following letter in January: <QUOTE>"We would like to inform you that the state of Israel has signed agreements allowing you to leave Israel for a safe third country that will absorb you and give you a residency visa that will allow you to work in that country, and promises not to remove you to your country of origin."<END QUOTE> The "third safe countries" were not named, but they were known to be Rwanda and Uganda. The deadline to leave or be jailed was to be April 1. According to a poll in late January, 66% of Jewish Israelis, and half of Arab Israelis, who make up 20% of Israel's population, favored the deportation plan. However, the plan received a huge backlash from human rights organizations, both internationally and within Israel. Due to international pressure, both Rwanda and Uganda announced that they wouldn't take part in the deportation plan. On Monday, Netanyahu explained in a Facebook post why the whole plan had to be canceled: <QUOTE>"In the past two years I have been working with Rwanda so that it will serve as a third country' that absorbs infiltrators who will be deported without their consent. This is the only legal way for us to deport infiltrators without their consent, after the rest of our moves have been legally disqualified. Rwanda agreed to this and began the deportation operation. In recent weeks, under tremendous pressure on Rwanda by the New Israel Fund and elements in the European Union, Rwanda withdrew from the agreement and has refused to absorb infiltrators from Israel who are forcibly removed. From the moment that it became clear in the last few weeks that the third country as an option does not exist, we in effect entered a trap that meant all of them would stay."<END QUOTE> Falling into this "trap" represented a danger to Israel, according to education minister Naftali Bennett: <QUOTE>"[G]ranting legal status to 16,000 infiltrators will turn Israel into a paradise for infiltrators and is a surrender to the false campaign spread in the media in recent months. The original outline was moral and just, and we must follow it, alone. Refugees from dangerous places will be absorbed in Israel, work migrants will be sent back. In the new plan, work migrants who didn’t even apply to be refugees will be absorbed. By signing this agreement, we are sending a dangerous message to the whole world: Whoever succeeds in infiltrating Israel illegally will get a prize of legal residence here or a Western country."<END QUOTE> He added that that the government must "proceed to a new roadmap will remove the illegal infiltrators from Israel." Reuters (3-Jan) and The Atlantic (30-Jan) and Al Jazeera (4-Feb) and Jerusalem Post Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Eritrea, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, UN Human Rights Council, UNHCR, Canada, Italy, Germany, Naftali Bennett Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Apr-18 World View -- Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to - John J. Xenakis - 04-03-2018 *** 4-Apr-18 World View -- Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey **** Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system (Tass) In the course of a joint press conference by Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin, held in Turkey's capital city Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan and Putin announced that the previously scheduled delivery of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft missiles at the end of 2019 would be moved up. At the press conference, Putin said: <QUOTE>"We have decided with President Erdogan in our meeting to speed up the delivery of the S-400 systems. Our Turkish colleagues made a request in the meetings. We will accelerate the process. This is an issue of commerce. Companies are working on it."<END QUOTE> According to Turkish and Russian media, the S-400 is Russia's most advanced long-range anti-aircraft missile system with a capacity of carrying three types of missiles capable of destroying targets including aircraft, and ballistic and cruise missiles. The system can track and engage up to 300 targets at a time and has an altitude ceiling of 27 kilometers (17 miles). In addition, the system’s radars detect aerial targets at a distance of up to 600 kilometers (373 miles). So there are some unanswered questions about this deal: What is the intended target of these S-400 missiles? Is Erdogan planning to target American warplanes? Israeli warplanes? Iranian warplanes? Syrian warplanes? Armenian warplanes? Nato warplanes? And what's the rush? Which of these potential targets has become so imminently dangerous that Erdogan needs to accelerate the delivery of the missiles? In an interview before the press conference, Putin said: <QUOTE>"A priority task in the sphere of military technical cooperation is the implementation of the contract for supplies of S-400 Triumf missile systems to Turkey. We hope that the sectoral intergovernmental commission will look into the prospects for further supplies of Russian-made military hardware to Turkey at its next meeting."<END QUOTE> So the obvious question is: Why is Putin so anxious to sell these systems to Turkey? According to other reports, Russia is delivering the same S-400 systems to China. Whom does Putin think that Turkey and China will be using these anti-aircraft missiles against? Is Putin really so certain that Turkey and China won't use the S-400 missiles against Russia? Or maybe something deeper is going on -- like a secret way for Russia to disable these missiles remotely? Nato officials are strongly opposed to this deal between Turkey and Russia, because Turkey is member of Nato, and so it's important that all weapons systems of all Nato countries be interoperable with each other. However, Russia's S-400 system is not interoperable with other Nato weapons systems, so deploying S-400 systems represents a sharp rejection by Turkey of its relationship with Nato. This also provides one more reason why Putin is anxious to deliver S-400 systems to Turkey as quickly as possible -- to make sure that Turkey cannot militarily cooperate with Nato. Anadolu (Ankara) and Tass (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Tass **** **** Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia **** One media story after another on Tuesday described how Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are developing a close personal friendship that is bring Russia and Turkey closer together, shutting the U.S. out. For example: <QUOTE>"Ties between Russia and Turkey are growing closer than ever, as Russia runs into widespread diplomatic fallout from the poisoned spy scandal and Turkey's relations with its Western allies worsens over human rights issues and its military operations against Kurdish militia in Syria."<END QUOTE> The "deepening friendship" between Putin and Erdogan can only be described as bizarre. This is a good time to remind readers that from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the behavior of two nations towards each other depends not on the attitudes of the politicians, but on the attitudes of the two populations. And historically, the people of Russia and the people of Turkey hate each other. During the last millennium, one of the most bloody and vicious relationships in the world was the relationship between the people who have become today's Turks and Russians. As I described in November 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane and brought the two countries close to military conflict, the Crimean Peninsula was the site of several generational crisis wars between the two. The Tatars were a tribe of Mongols who, under the leadership of Genghis Kahn, defeated China, then Russia, where they occupied Crimea. In 1571, the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow. In 1783, Russia under Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in a war in which the Ottomans (Turkey) were defeated. The Crimean War (1853-55) was a disaster for both the Russians and the Turks, though more so for the Russians, who lost Crimea and other territories on the Black Sea. World War I saw the destruction of Russia's Tsarist empire and Turkey's Ottoman Empire. So it's particularly significant today that Russia has invaded and annexed Crimea, and has treated the current Tatar population brutally. The Tatars are historically close to the Turks, and although we don't read much about this in the media, the Russian treatment of Tatars must infuriate many Turks. So it's quite a reasonable question to ask what's going on here, when these two politicians, Putin and Erdogan, are behaving in ways that must upset many of the people they represent. In the past I've described the reasons why China and Russia, whose populations also respectively hate each other, are allying -- because both countries are supporting each other in annexing other countries' territories, as Hitler did prior to World War II. Russia and China need each other because they need each other's support, in the sense of "honor among thieves." Putin and Erdogan have also reached the conclusion that Russia and Turkey need each other, for several reasons:
In addition, on Tuesday, Putin and Erdogan broke ground on a $20 billion Russian-made nuclear power plant being built on Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Akkuyu. The project was already launched once before in February 2015, but was canceled after Turkey shot down the Russian warplane. Putin said on Tuesday, "This scale of the project is difficult to exaggerate. This marks a new stage in the development of Turkey's economy." This "marriage of convenience" between Putin and Erdogan cannot last, in view of the centuries of bitter, bloody conflict between the two countries. At some point, Russia will be forced to choose between the West versus China and Turkey, and they will choose the West. Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. AP and Daily Mail and AFP and RFE/RL Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, S-400 anti-aircraft system, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin, Crimea, Crimean Tatars, Catherine the Great, Crimean War, Ottoman Empire, Akkuyu Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley - John J. Xenakis - 04-04-2018 *** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China's tariff retaliation plan would devastate China's economy **** A Chinese farmer gathering bundles of wheat (Getty) The Trump administration imposed tariffs earlier this week on some 1,300 products in a broad range of sectors, from electronics components to medical devices, and from false teeth to detergent chemicals. When China retaliated on Wednesday, its list contained only 106 items, mostly agricultural products. American soybeans as the number 1 target, followed by corn products, two types of cotton exports, wheat and meat. The list also includes frozen orange juice and whiskey, tobacco and cars. As a number of analysts have pointed out, while the Trump administration is targeting strategic products, China's reciprocal tariffs are not strategic but political, specifically targeting products that are developed in states where Trump is politically popular, in the hope of applying political pressure to Trump to drop the tariffs altogether. What seems clear from both sets of items is that these mutual tariffs may harm small segments of America's economy, they will devastate China's entire economy, mainly because of China's enormous and growing food security problem. China has only 7% of the world's farmlands, but has to feed 20% of the world's population. In order to improve yields, China's farmers have been using massive amounts of chemical fertilizers. The increasing use of these fertilizers has followed the economy Law of Diminishing Returns, in that additional use of fertilizers has been less and less effective and even counterproductive, as some farmland is being poisoned with overfertilization. Exacerbating the shortage of farmland is the shortage of water. China's available water supply per person is only 25% of the average available globally. In parts of China, groundwater is being depleted for agriculture. The growing and excessive use of fertilizer and groundwater indicate that China's domestic ability to feed its growing population is lessening. That means that China has to import enormous amounts of food from other countries. Many people were surprised to see soybeans at the top of China's tariff list, because importing massive amounts of soybeans is essential to China's economy. Of all the globally traded soybeans in the world, China imports 60% of them, including $12 billion worth of American soybeans. If China stopped buying American soybeans, it would be almost impossible to replace them from another source. If China did find another source, perhaps in Brazil or Argentina, then these countries would raise their own soybean prices -- and, indeed, soybean futures prices in Brazil have already been increasing. But then the people who could no longer get their soybeans from Brazil or Argentina would turn to America's soybeans. On the other hand, if China kept purchasing American soybeans but imposed its threatened 25% tariff, then the cost of the soybeans would be prohibitive for many Chinese, and would lead to price inflation. And price inflation would lead to social instability. China's history is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars), the most recent of which were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49). China is overdue for a new massive civil war, and a soybean tariff could be the trigger. Xinhua and Reuters and Nature and Zero Hedge **** **** China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 **** Chinese officials keep saying that they don't want a trade war, but they're not afraid of a trade war. Well, the first half of that statement is true, anyway, but the second half is definitely not true. America's economy would be slightly hurt, but China's economy would be devastated. When America passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, during the Great Depression, it was particularly devastating to Japan, as it cut off Japan's exports to America of silk, its greatest cash crop. I've written many times in the past that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act could be considered the beginning of World War II, so I was interested in a speech given by Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2015, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of WW II, where he explained how Japan was affected by a "major blow" -- the Smoot-Hawley act -- and how it led to Japan's invasion of Manchuria a year later: <QUOTE>"[After World War I] Japan kept steps with other nations. However, with the Great Depression setting in and the Western countries launching economic blocs by involving colonial economies, Japan’s economy suffered a major blow [Smoot-Hawley]. In such circumstances, Japan’s sense of isolation deepened and it attempted to overcome its diplomatic and economic deadlock through the use of force. Its domestic political system could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts. In this way, Japan lost sight of the overall trends in the world. With the Manchurian Incident, followed by the withdrawal from the League of Nations, Japan gradually transformed itself into a challenger to the new international order that the international community sought to establish after tremendous sacrifices. Japan took the wrong course and advanced along the road to war. And, seventy years ago, Japan was defeated."<END QUOTE> The Smoot-Hawley act devastated Japan's silk industry, and its entire economy, causing it to take desperate measures a year later, invading Manchuria. Later, America and the League of Nations imposed a punitive oil embargo on Japan in 1941, and just a few months later, Japanese warplanes bombed Pearl Harbor. It's quite possible that we're on a similar path with China today. China's economy is already in dire straits, with huge debt bubbles that could burst at any time, and anything resembling a trade war could lead to social instability, which would cause China to take desperate measures, such as invading India, Japan, Vietnam or the Philippines. One could argue that China is a victim. They were victimized by Americans and the Europeans, who made it too easy for the Chinese to cheat on trade with illegal tariffs and to steal American's intellectual property, with the result that China became addicted to the drugs of illegal tariffs and stealing intellectual property. Now those drugs are being taken away, and China is at risk of showing the signs of drug withdrawal which, in this case, means launching a world war. China is on a very dangerous path -- to itself and to the world. China's illegal tariffs and stealing intellectual property will not be allowed to continue. It's up to China to fix this problem, but we know that the Chinese people are so nationalistic and so xenophobic that they will not. Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Cato Institute Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Brazil, Argentina, White Lotus Rebellion, Taiping Rebellion, Mao's Communist Revolution, Japan, Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, Shinzo Abe, Manchuria, Manchurian Incident, League of Nations Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley - Tim Randal Walker - 04-05-2018 (04-04-2018, 09:20 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930If China chooses to invade its neighbors, how will Japan respond? At a minimum, I can imagine the Japanese trying to dominate the island countries of east Asia, excluding the Chinese. RE: 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's experience after Smoot-Hawley - John J. Xenakis - 04-05-2018 (04-04-2018, 09:20 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > *** 5-Apr-18 World View -- China on path to repeat Japan's (04-05-2018, 12:15 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > If China chooses to invade its neighbors, how will Japan respond? Japan has been preparing for war with China for years. They would try to stay out of it as long as possible, but sooner or later (and probably sooner) they would be involved in any war that China started. There's an interesting footnote to that question. Japan has a "pacifist" constitution, with the Article 9 self-defense clause, which is a "renunciation of war," forbidding any military action except for "self-defense" on Japanese soil. In 2015, Abe was able to get parliament to reinterpret the self-defense clause to mean "collective self-defense," which means that military action would be permitted anywhere in the world when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. So if China attacks the United States, or any Japanese ally, then Japan can come to the defense of the ally, despite the "pacifist constitution." ** 23-Oct-17 World View -- Big election win for Japan's Shinzo Abe may mean end of pacifism ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e171023.htm#e171023 ** 28-Dec-15 World View -- Japan says that armed Chinese ships infiltrate its territorial waters ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e151228.htm#e151228 ** 5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140505.htm#e140505 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-05-2018 What would Japan do, if the US decides to "stay out of it"? They would have to build up an actual military force to defend itself in that case? |